Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
All right, and welcome into the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football Podcast.
We're just two weeks into the NFL season, but the
landscape has certainly shifted. We have players that we are
ranking as rb thre's wide receiver threes coming into the season.
They're now firmly inside the top twelve of their respective positions.
We won't quite be focusing on those particular players, but
(00:20):
instead our favorite Week three sleeper starts. Yes, welcome back
to the primer episode. I'm your host, Seth Wilcock, and
I'm joined by a man who's been on top of
all the shaking and the bacon inside the expert consensus rankings.
You can call them the Ricky Bobby of our staff.
He's Derek Brown. What's up, de Bro?
Speaker 2 (00:36):
How are you? As we approach yet another weekend of
NFL football.
Speaker 3 (00:39):
That intro was fantastic and now you started talking about
bacon and now I'm hungry?
Speaker 1 (00:45):
Seth?
Speaker 3 (00:46):
Yes, is there anything before we get into this real fast?
Is there anything that you can't put bacon on, like
within the realms of like decent reality, Like I'm not
talking about adding bacon to your breakfast, cereal? Sure there
anything that bacon doesn't make better.
Speaker 2 (01:03):
Seriously, I legitimately can't think of one.
Speaker 1 (01:05):
I am stumped on that because Mac and Cheese put
it in there, Sandwiches put it in there, Banger put
it in there. BA pretty much yeah, yep, absolutely, one
hundred percent with bacon app yep, yep. Maybe a little
bacon on top of these starts we got for you
this week as well. Quick shout out to everyone who's
tuning in either on the Fantasy Pros YouTube channel or
the audio feed.
Speaker 2 (01:26):
We see you, We appreciate you. Please do as a.
Speaker 1 (01:28):
Quick favor give this video a thumbs up if you
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(01:51):
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can claim your prize if you're that lucky winner. Derek,
let's go ahead and jump into the quarterback position where
(02:13):
I don't know if you're trying to just you know,
butter me up here with.
Speaker 2 (02:16):
A little more bacon talk.
Speaker 1 (02:18):
But you certainly are speaking to me here with one
of my favorite players out there in the Steel City.
Speaker 3 (02:23):
I was gonna say, man, I'm playing to the ends
their crowd just a little bit, come on, dude, But no, seriously,
Aaron Rodgers is a fantastic start. This week. QB twenty
six in ECR is laughable. I mean, one, he's QB
fourteen and Fantasy points per game. And two, the New
England Patriots defense has been god awful, man, Like their
past defense has not been anything close to what I
(02:44):
thought we were gonna get. Maybe they get Christian Gonzalez back.
Even if they do, I don't know if he's a
full time player and if it matters that that much.
This week, New England cannot stop the past. Man, So
I think Aaron Rodgers and they can't pressure the quarterback,
and that's huge for Aaron Rodgers. Looking into England, they've
allowed the highest yards per attempt, the most passing yards
per game, seth the eighth highest pass rating. And like
(03:06):
I said, Aaron Ard is gonna have plenty of time
to dice them up when he's gonna face a team
that has the twelfth lowest pressure rates. So I'm not
in on the old man every single week, but he's
gonna look younger this week, dude.
Speaker 1 (03:20):
Yeah, man smoking that ayahuasca and some other things potentially
keeping them young forever.
Speaker 2 (03:24):
And you know, I think potentially why.
Speaker 1 (03:27):
The expert consensus rankings have him so low, Derek is
because when you actually look at fancy points per game,
it hasn't been great for New England. You know, quarterbacks
going up against them, but that's because no one's been
running right. They've had Gino Smith, they've had to attack
of Aloa. But both of those guys had over three
hundred passing yards. Both those guys scored a passing touchdowns.
And you look at who's leading the league and passing
(03:49):
yards allowed, well, it's the Patriots. Like you said, Christian
Gonzalez hasn't been himself. The free agent acquisitions they've brought
in also haven't done what they've meant to do. So
I think it's a lot of overlook by the community
as hole this week. And I like this little sleeper
play in little Primanny sandwich action. You know.
Speaker 2 (04:04):
Also put Bacon on that one there, Derek.
Speaker 3 (04:06):
Hey, like I said, Bacon is undefeated.
Speaker 1 (04:09):
Bro Let's go to the running back position, Derek, where
you have one play this week?
Speaker 2 (04:13):
Staying in this same game.
Speaker 3 (04:16):
Why is Ramandres Stevenson ranked as RB twenty nine and
ECR I I can't seem to square this in my head,
like he is the clear leader of the Patriots backfield.
I'm not telling everybody that look Trevon Henderson does not
need more touches, And maybe that happens this week. I
still think he's going to lead them in everything meaningful.
For Stevenson, He's played sixty five percent of the snaps
(04:37):
in both games. He's looked extremely good seth like, He's
gotten three of the five red zone rushing opportunities. He's
averaged in eighty four and a half total yards per game.
He's the RB nineteen in fantasy points per game. So
the fact that I could even bring up Ramondre Stevenson's
name as a player that has not ranked into other
top twenty four, he's kind of ridiculous. And then you
(04:58):
look at what he's done again, Like, he's played well,
he's healthy amongst fifty qualifying running back seth He's eighteenth
in explosive run rate, He's fourteenth in yards up to
contact per attempt. And again, sorry, we gave a lot
of love to the Steelers at the top of this,
but now we also got to throw some shade. Man,
what the heck has happened to this supposed to be
awesome defense. They cannot stop the pass, they cannot stop
(05:21):
the run. Pittsburgh has given up the third highest explosive
run rate so far this season, the fifth most rushing
yards per game, in the second highest mistackle rate. Like,
they have way too much talent on this defense to
play as bad as they're playing, but they're playing really terrible,
So we could take advantageim fantasy.
Speaker 1 (05:39):
Yeah, I think this is a byproduct of what happens
when you have veterans missing training camp. You know, Cam
Hayward didn't show up until the very last minute. He
wanted that new deal, and he has just not looked
like the same run stuffer we've been accustomed to out
here in Pittsburgh for years and years. And this is
another situation where I think perception of this defense is
that maybe they'll get it together and that you look
(06:01):
at fancy points per game, they're not one of the
highest allowed to the position, but you look at rushing yards,
they're right up there.
Speaker 2 (06:08):
They're number two, right behind the Minnesota Vikings.
Speaker 1 (06:10):
The only reason they haven't allowed more fancy points is
because the running backs they've gone up against have only
had five targets this season. So for ma Andre who
continues to get receiving work, that's what I'm stunned about.
I don't know if it's the fact that Trayvon Henderson
picked up a couple of flags there for holding is
why he took a back seat there, But I was
really pressed by ramondra and kind of reminded that this
(06:32):
guy has always been a pretty decent pass catcher when
he's been asked to do that. So ken Walker had
a big day last week over one hundred yards and
a score. We saw Breese Hall in Week one as well.
Look great, the best he's looked at in a minute.
So wheels up here for Ramandre Stevenson. Are you using
this opportunity if you do have his counterpart there in
Trayvon Henderson.
Speaker 2 (06:52):
Is he a bench for you? Is he a sell?
Is he just a stash for later on?
Speaker 3 (06:56):
Henderson is a stash, And I'd say if you're really
in a pinch with flex plays, like you drafted him
as your RB two, you probably gotta be starting him.
I'm not dropping him, not doing anything like that. Like,
I think he's an interesting flex play this week. Like again,
I think Ramandre still leads the backfield and everything meaningful
this week. But to say, like the Patriots or this
(07:19):
is a really close game or an explosive game, I
think this game has some shootout potential. If that happens,
there's an opportunity for Henderson to break off or big run.
Speaker 2 (07:29):
Yeah, absolutely, real quick.
Speaker 1 (07:31):
I want to remind everyone that you can dominate your
fans Football League with Fancy Pros Premium, which is now
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top fans football tools all season long. Go to fantasypros
dot com slash Premium to get yourself started today, Derek,
(07:51):
let's shift over to the wide receiver position, where you
have a trio of players we should be considering in
lineups this week, including someone who has been kind of wrap.
They're disappointing right off the rip here in Chicago.
Speaker 3 (08:03):
Yeah, in fult transparency, man, Like, usually we're talking about
two wideouts, two running backs. The running back position is
just a mess this week, dude, Like, outside of there's
so much uncertainty with workloads, so many bad matchups that
like there's really nobody else that I feel like supremely confident.
This is one of those kind of weeks, Seth where
it's like, I really think that if you're playing like you're,
(08:24):
you're kind of dividing up, like, who am I going
to play in my flex, It's probably going to be
a wide receiver. And that leads me to djmore Dude,
Like he's wide receiver thirty two in ECR. Honestly, I
was kind of expect him to be a little bit
higher and not even be able to, you know, talk
about him in this segment. But here we are dj Moore.
The top down numbers haven't been amazing, like a sixteen
(08:45):
point two percent target share, twenty three percent area r chair,
nineteen percent first read. Those aren't just jump off the
page awesome numbers, sure, but when you look at the
matchup and you look at the coverage shell, I think
this is a huge opportunity for Djmore to have a
monster game this week. So Dallas utilizes Too High at
the third highest rate in the NFL, sixty four percent
of their defensive snaps against Too High. It has not
(09:08):
been roal Maa Doonza so far this season. It has
been DJ Moore that Caleb Williams is going to religiously.
I talked about all those numbers to begin this with
DJ Moore, just his overall market chare against too High SETH.
Dj Moore, his numbers go to he is a twenty
seven point three percent target share, his yards per route
(09:28):
run jumps up to three point three to two, and
his first read share is colossal at thirty six point
eight percent. And then if you look at the matchup SETH,
do we just saw last week that Dallas can't stop
anybody through the air. They've given up the most receiving
yards per game and the highest PPR points per target
to perimeter wide receivers. You need upside like for your
(09:51):
lineups this week, DJ Moore, I think can really really
provide it in one of the game environments that honestly,
it's one of the few game environments of the whole
week seth where people are looking at betting totals, one
of the few high total games of the week. So
you're buying into total, you're buying into coverage, show matchup,
and you're buying into a talented player. DJ Moore could
(10:12):
smash this week.
Speaker 1 (10:13):
You know, I was so disappointing in Week one when
I was on some DeVonta Smith overs in that Thursday
night opener, saying the Eagles just didn't throw the ball right,
and I was like, come on, this secondary is not good.
And then lo and behold, Russell Wilson sets a new
career high last week goes absolutely you know bananas here
Wandale Romson over one hundred and forty yards. Malik Neighbors
(10:35):
over one hundred and sixty yards, each of them combined
for three touchdowns as well. So I was like, okay,
that is the Dallas Cowboys secondary I.
Speaker 2 (10:42):
Know and love.
Speaker 1 (10:42):
I don't think dron Bland is going to be in
for this game as well, so I think it will
open up some even more potential for DJ Moore and
like Derek, if we go back to Week one, in
that primetime game against the Minnesota Vikings, DJ Moore was
running wide open and Caleb Williams missed him excuse me,
and if he will get him in stride for that touchdown,
(11:03):
I think people feel a little bit better about DJ
Moore and he's maybe a little higher up in the
ECR rankings.
Speaker 2 (11:09):
Let's stick with uh.
Speaker 1 (11:10):
Let's stick with the wide receiver position of receiver I
just mentioned here that is connected to our friend Russell Wilson.
Speaker 3 (11:16):
This is not me chasing last week's points. I'm gonna
be very clear about that. Wando Robinson at wide receiver
forty five, I'm telling you right now, I'm going to
have him ranked higher than that. The matchup, the coverage,
everything lines up for Wanda Robinson this week. And again
I'm not dismissing that he's the wide receiver nine and
a Fantasy points per game we got two weeks. He
(11:37):
had a monster game last week, so toss that out.
That's not where I'm going with this. I do really
enjoy the fact that his A dot is not at
two or four, his adox respectable seth like it's eleven
point zero right now, like it's eleven flat. Well, that
is something we have never seen with Wando Robinson's usage.
And then if you look at just his market share
(11:58):
in this offense, three percent target share, thirty two percent
first read share, he's averaging. And I know it's only
two games, ninety eight receiving yards per game, two point
seven yards per route run. The real big thing that
don't want to highlight here SETH is not only the
coverage matchup for Wando Robinson, but the Chiefs have stunk
against slot receivers over the last few seasons. They've been abysmal.
(12:21):
The Chiefs run too high at the sixth highest rates
of sixty two percent of the defensive snaps against too
high Wando Robinson, his first read share increases to thirty
seven percent, so Russell Wilson will be looking for him
early and often. In his yards per route run jump
all the way to three point four to five, which
is just a wonderful number. And again, the Chiefs can't
(12:42):
stop slot receivers. They've been torched already this season. They're
given up the seventh highest PPR points per target. Wando
Robinson in for another big game. So again, if you
need the upside from a flex play, I think Wandell
can give it to you. And then that's not just
PPR formats half PPR start him.
Speaker 1 (13:01):
It's so cool to kind of see this development in
a prospect to like Wandale Robinson, who I think coming
out of Kentucky we were all pretty high on and
just was kind of one of those guys who you
would stash on your bench if you need to throw
him out there in a desperation flex desperation wide receiver too,
you could over the last few years. But you were
looking at a ceiling of thirteen fourteen points, and it
feels like they're starting to unlock him a little bit.
(13:21):
We're seeing that downfield presence and to your point here,
like last week, again let's throw out the Eagles game
against the Chiefs because the Eagles don't throw the ball,
but you look the week before when Keenan Allen was
in that game, ten targets, seven reception, sixty eight yards
in a touchdown. I know him and lad were kind
of in and out of the slot. Lad had a
respectable game too, So this is the time for Wando
(13:42):
to continue to heat up. And if if I had
to guess, it's probably gonna be still a little bit
of dinking and dunking for him too, because I just
don't think it's gonna be a super high scoring game.
I think this would be a lot of ball possession
for the Giants and the Chiefs, teams that historically have
kind of struggled to score little bit of points here
as of late. Derek, let's go back to the wide
(14:04):
receiver position where you have a sneak your start. One
of my favorite prospects that we talked about way back
in the NFL Draft show, who do you have?
Speaker 3 (14:11):
I hope you picked him up off of waivers. Man.
This could be the week where elk amn Or says
to everybody, I'm the real wide receiver one for the
Tennessee Titans. If you look at what Calvin Ridley has
done and when he hasn't done to this point, is
separation metrics? Is we're out win rate? They're not good. Dude.
Ellick is quietly bawling out, and we saw like a
small snippet of this. Last week, he was wide receiver
(14:33):
twenty four in Fantasy. Last week he's gotten to this point,
a twenty one point three percent target chair, a twenty
six point eight percent first read chair. I know that
a lot of his counting stats aren't amazing, but we
could see all that come to fruition this week because
if you look at the Colts secondary, they've utilized single
high coverage on fifty four percent of the defensive snaps.
(14:53):
Why does this all matter? Why do we keep talking
about coverages? Because the way that teams attack certain coverage shells.
Are they gonna go underneath? Are they gonna stretch the field?
Wit receivers get more of a bump when they face
certain defenses, and how do they attack them? And this
all matters, dude, and Elick. Versus a single high his
target share goes from twenty one point three percent to
twenty three percent, his first reid share jumps from twenty
(15:16):
six percent to thirty two percent, and he has solid
first downs per route run. And then the Colts secondary, like,
we shouldn't be that scared of them, man, Like they've
allowed the six most PPR points per target to perimeter
wide receivers, and if the Colts are handling their business
like JT is running wild, Daniel Jones is doing the
freaking thing this week. We know the Tennessee Titans are
(15:38):
gonna be playing ketchup. They're gonna have to throw the
ball this week, and I think a lot of targets
and production is gonna go to Elk.
Speaker 2 (15:45):
I mean, it kind of just makes sense here.
Speaker 1 (15:46):
I mean, he's always been the type of receiver coming
out of Stanford where he had to play a little
bit of backyard football, right. I mean, Ashton Daniels hit
his quarterback in twenty twenty four was god awful and
kind of that same mentality of a little bit in
cam Warwile cam Warden's much better quarterback. Obviously, he still knew, right,
he's still getting his feet under him. He's still you know,
(16:08):
you know, the touchdown he had to him last week
was a bit of a backyard BS title move man.
So yeah, I mean I think it makes sense here.
And give me a guy who's on the field right
now a ton and it's not just he's running winsprings
seventy nine percent of snaps in Week one, seventy three
percent in Week two as well. And I think you
know better days are ahead for Calvin Ridley still, just
(16:29):
because he's had such tough matchups, right, I mean, two
of the better cornerbacks in the league he's been going
up against in week number.
Speaker 2 (16:35):
One and two.
Speaker 1 (16:35):
But I think there's a chance that we're looking back,
and you know, I think pile on both of your
and ice faces because we're drafting a ton of Tony Powler.
We drafted a ton of Calvin Ridley, and it might
turn out that Elick was really the one we wanted
all along.
Speaker 2 (16:47):
Yeah, dude, the.
Speaker 3 (16:48):
Fact that he is wide receiver fifty five in ECR.
I'm telling you right now, like I'm gonna have him
inside like he's probably gonna be a borderline wide receiver
three four for me, and I might push him up
into the wide receiver three ranges week.
Speaker 1 (17:00):
Yeah. It might be someone also to consider in the
prop market too. I'm sure his receiving yards will be low.
I don't know if I would want to go back
to any time TD market with him, but definitely someone
I'll be eyeing up, especially potential SGP play. So Derek,
round us out, bring us home here with the tight
end position. Another one of these prospects that I think
(17:21):
you and I both really fell in love with from
a production standpoint, had one of the best overall seasons
we've ever seen from the tight end position. He's a
mac boy from Bowling Green. You actually got to touch
base with his parents there over the summer out there
the Fantasy little Expo.
Speaker 3 (17:37):
Yeah, man, before we get to him real fast, good
shout out for the betting stuff, dude, like he so elic.
What's sight out in the prop market over at hard
Rock bet over thirty five and a half minus one fifteen,
give me that plus anytime touchdown score plus three twenty five.
Gonna hit both of those on betting pros right now,
Dude like that, go easy money. And speaking of easy money, man,
(18:00):
like with the tight end position being just kind of
a mess, like with injuries, under performance, you don't know
who to play, I'm telling you, man, Harold Fan and
Junior got to meet him then a Senior Bowl. Super
awesome guy, great interview. He is tight end thirteen in ECR.
He is going to be inside of my probably top
ten tight ends for the week, tight end nine in
(18:22):
Fantasy points per game, seth and he's getting the usage, dude,
fifteen percent target chare, he's averaging fifty five point five
receiving yards per game, one point nine yards per route
run and is good as the Packers defense has been,
and it has been very good, surprisingly, So they're giving
up a lot of production to tight ends, dude, And
a lot of that comes down to, if you're a
(18:42):
quarterback and the corners are extremely good, how are you
going to move the ball and avoid corners really talented corners.
You're going to target your tight end over the middle
of the field. And that's what teams have been doing.
The Green Bay Packers have allowed the fifth most fantasy
points per game, the eleventh highest yards per reception, and
the fifth most receiving yards two tight ends. So if
(19:06):
you got David and Joku, fine play him this week,
just you know, considering your options. But if you got
Harold Fan and Junior and they're like, okay, we need
to play him, or am I gonna go with I
don't know, Mark Andrews, Hunter, Henry all these other guys
are it's low end tight end one and you're like,
I don't know, Like probably the answer is Harold Fan
and Jr. Yeah.
Speaker 1 (19:28):
I mean, it's been sensational start the season. He has
fourteen targets in just two games. That's one of the
better runs that we've seen from a rookie tight end,
coming out only two targets behind Jerry Judy, one behind
Cedric Tillman. And also he is the one tight end
that has a red zone target too, between him and
David Nijoku, so when they getting close, he's looking for him.
Speaker 2 (19:47):
So I'm all in on Harold fan.
Speaker 1 (19:50):
And Junior the prospect and like rest of season, I
think it's clear that he is the tight end rookie
two or tight end rookie two. Right would you agree?
Like I mean, I'm dropping Cold Loveland if I had
him anywhere. Oh, he's from a diasty perspective. I know
this isn't a Dynasty show, Derek, but would you also
bump Harold Fanning Junior up past Loveland and Dynasty rankings
or is that just a bridge too far?
Speaker 3 (20:11):
I don't think it's a bridge too far. I think
I think the way to approach that is they should
be talked about in the same area code. I think
that that that's how I think people should be approaching it.
And I know you and I talked about this like
a preseason shows, live streams and everything. I was worried
about Colston Loveland getting Dalton Kincaidd and where it's like, okay,
like that the veteran guy is probably not gonna go away.
(20:33):
What if Loveland isn't this full time like everybody's talking about.
Oh bit Joza Goody, Sam Laporta. Okay, what if that
doesn't happen? What if this is more Dalton kincaid treatment
and his route here is cut and that's what we've seen,
like he's been in the forties. Dude, you can't even
start him. He's droppable right now in every format, not
Dynasty but a redraft. He's droppable because he's not playing.
(20:55):
So no, like Harold Fannon needs to be above him
in redraft and in dinas See. I think is a
very interesting conversation about discussing them in the same breath here.
Speaker 1 (21:04):
I think if I think, if we're redrafting rookie drafts
right now, Haro Fanning is not going outside of the
top twenty picks.
Speaker 2 (21:10):
Oh No, agreed, It's been exciting.
Speaker 1 (21:12):
I'm excited to continue to watch this player develop and
grow in this Browns offense, that's gonna have to sling
the ball because even though their defense is okay, they're
just not a good football team.
Speaker 2 (21:22):
So they're going to be.
Speaker 1 (21:23):
Trailing Derek great stuff today, man. That is going to
do it for us on this episode of the Fantasy
Pros Fantasy Football Podcast. Comment down below your favorite week
three month starts. We want to hear from you, and
while you're here, make sure you're smashing that like bund
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I'm Seth Willcock take care of y'all.
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