Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
Hello, everybody, Welcome into today's short form video. I'm Ryan Warmley,
joined by Pat fitz Morris and Jake Seely from the Athletic.
We are talking players that we are of waiting at
all costs and guys, we have a lot of names
to get through in a very short amount of time,
So no preamble here at the top, will dive right
in fits Who is the first player that you're avoiding
at all costs?
Speaker 2 (00:21):
Baker Mayfield. Now his ADP is QB seven. That's also
where I have him ranked, but it's the overall ranking
I have more of an issue with he is being
drafted like around the late sixth early seventh round. I'm
just not taking Mayfield over some of the interesting running
backs and wide receivers in that part of the draft.
When I can wait another round or two and get
(00:41):
Justin Fields Rock Party, or wait even longer and get
Drake may Like, there's going to be some statistical regression
for Baker Mayfield this year, Like he had forty one
touchdown passes last year after never before throwing even thirty
touchdown passes in a single season. He ran for three
hundred and seventy eight yards last year career high never
(01:02):
had even two hundred rushing yards in any previous season.
Mayfield is losing. Liam Cohen is his play caller, a
year after losing Dave Knalis's his play caller. And I
know we like the Buccaneers wide receivers, but that's just
I don't think it's a justification for overpaying for Mayfield
to win their better bargains to be had later on
a quarterback.
Speaker 1 (01:21):
Baker Mayfield the only quarterback on this list of guys
you put together here, Jake, Who's the first player that
you're avoiding.
Speaker 3 (01:28):
Yeah, I'm gonna say again this is leaned into the
never drafting kind of in my mind, like is there
a player that I would never draft? A running back?
The player that might feel obvious to a lot of people,
but I still see him going in drafts is Audric
Estimate And that was even before they added JK. Dobbins,
just because I'm not a big fan of Estimate. I
just think he's a power, but kind of a meth
(01:49):
power running back, and I think he would have been
a fine compliment to R. J. Harvey, but we need
to bank on touchdowns for him, and I just don't
see a lot of upside in that you add JK. Dobbins.
And the reason I bring up Dobbins with this is
because even if Dobbins gets hurt, I still would be
out on estimate. I just don't see the upside with him,
especially in a Sean Payton offense. So I get the
(02:11):
appeals that well, there's going to be scoring and maybe
if RJ. Harvey and Dobbins both get hurt, but we've
already seen a scenario last year where he got his
opportunities and it was just kind of matt like. I
think that's the best way to describe Audrich mess to
May Like, there you go, like, I hate to do
that too it And I know fans of his talent
are going to come for me, but I think the
talent's really just a question in my mind to begin.
Speaker 1 (02:31):
With Fitz, who is your next player to avoid?
Speaker 2 (02:35):
It's James Cook, who we just talked about on a
running Back draft or pass show. Cook's touchdown totals for
the last three seasons three six, eighteen, so I think
we know which one was the outlier. I think he's
closer to six touchdowns than eighteen this year. Josh Allen
doesn't really throw to his running backs all that much.
(02:57):
So Cook's reception ceiling is probably around forty like as
single season high as thirty eight, and Cook's second year
backup Ray Davis is a pretty good player. Like when
Cook missed a Week six game against the Jets with
turf tow last season, ray Davis had one hundred and
fifty two yards from scrimmage in a Bill's win in
that game. So he is a viable option behind Cook.
(03:20):
And obviously Cook's current contract dispute is worrisome, But even
if it's resolved, I think I'm still steering clear of
James Cook because of the inevitable touchdown regression and the
limited pass catching upside.
Speaker 1 (03:32):
Jake Who's the next player you're avoiding.
Speaker 3 (03:35):
Yeah, the one that might upset you a little bit,
But I am completely one hundred percent out on Za
Flowers just where he's going. If he was a back
end wide receiver three at cost, sure, I'll buy in,
because guess what, that's what he's been as a back
end wide receiver three. And the reason I bring that
up is because not only was he just wide receiver
thirty four in points per game last year, that came
with Lamar Jackson throwing forty one touchdowns. How much more
(03:58):
does Lamar Jackson have to do? Move to get Zay
Flowers even inside the top thirty to top twenty five
and people want to draft them as top twenty five.
It's just they added Hopkins and I'm not like afraid
of Hopkins, but this is who the Ravens are. They
use everybody, and Zay Flowers, as much as I love
his talent, you put them on twenty other teams and
I will draft them as a top twenty five wide receiver.
(04:20):
He's never going to be a big touchdown guy for
the Ravens, and you're just looking at somebody that's gonna
hover right around ten ten and a half Fantasy points
per game, and that makes you a back end wide
receiver three. So I get the excitement for the talent,
But how many years we've been doing this? You know
this more than anybody. Worm, We've been do this for
like ten years, trying to draft Ravens wide receivers. Just stop.
Speaker 1 (04:40):
Yeah, everybody always when they bring up a Ravens player
that they're avoiding, they're like, I know you're not gonna
like this, worm, I with you. I am not drafting
Zay Flowers at his current costs, I don't get it.
I love him. Let's tell of them in real life,
not in fantasy. Yeah, and that should be telling, honest
for people. I will be having very little Za Flowers
this year unless the cost goes down fits next player
you're avoiding.
Speaker 2 (05:00):
This is going to make some people mad. Juwan Jennings,
pardon me for being a little bit skeptical of an
age twenty seven breakout from a former seventh round draft pick.
A breakout that was at least partly aided by the
absence of Ricky Piersall early in the season and then
the absence of Brandon Ayuk after he tours ACL And
it's not as if it was a massive breakout either.
(05:23):
Like Juwan Jennings was tied for wide receiver twenty six
in half point PPR Fantasy points per game, and like,
no question Jennings was good last year. He averaged two
point twenty six yards per route run. That's an outstanding number,
But Jennings had never averaged better than one point three
to eight yards per rout run in any previous season.
Like not such an impressive number, And there's target competition
(05:45):
from George Kittle, Christian McCaffrey, Pearsall and eventually Ayuk whenever
he comes back. Jennings has an early sixth rownd ADP
just way too early for me.
Speaker 3 (05:55):
Jake next player for you, And I picked his name
partly maybe because I wanted to go the Madio Douglas
when I said that, just to dem be able to
play that. But the truth is, with Douglas, it comes
down to what's the ceiling even if he was the
number one target getter, And this is why I'm going
this route with it, and Kyle Williams is a bust
as a rookie. Hunter Henry doesn't bounce back. Even though
(06:18):
Hunter Henry had a pretty decent season at times with
Drake May last year and all the rest of the
wide receivers, and he's the number one target getter, He's
still going to need to catch a hundred balls to
get a thousand yards, and then again you're probably not
gonna have touchdowns. Similar to Zave Flowers, it really just
comes down to he is there. Wandell Robinson, and Wandell
Robinson wasn't even a top forty eight wide receiver on
(06:41):
one hundred and forty targets last year. Like it just
I don't see where we get the value from Damerio Douglas,
the Madio Douglas, and I think that he's He's fine
in a full point PPR if you need a wide
receiver four during by mcgeddon.
Speaker 1 (06:53):
But that's about it fits.
Speaker 2 (06:55):
Next player, Oh, another one that's gonna make people mad,
Josh Downs, who everyone seems to love. The Colts are
likely to have mediocre quarterbacking this season in any narrative
like talking up a player that involves like Daniel Jones
winning the job, like that's just inherently a flawed in
my estimation. So like, even if it's Daniel Jones, no,
(07:16):
I'm not going to be excited about Josh Downs, who,
by the way, has scored seven touchdowns and thirty one
career games. And like even if the Colts get better
QB play than expected, like we don't think rookie tight
end Tyler Warren is going to become a problem for
Josh Downs competing for those short area targets near the
line of scrimmage. Like I absolutely think Tyler Warren is
(07:39):
going to put a dance in Josh Downs and by
the way, probably getting a bounce back season for Michael Pittman,
who was playing with a freaking broken back last season.
So I just I'm not at all in on Josh
Downes fit.
Speaker 1 (07:51):
I was hoping you'd find a way to work in
your own little accent. I don't know if it would
be Mario or a different video game character. I'm disappointed
that you did Suy Jake lass Player. You're avoiding at
all costs.
Speaker 3 (08:03):
Colston Lovelin. I think we've been spoiled the last two
years with Rooky tight ends, and the talent of Warren
and Loveland are extremely appealing. I had them in a
tier of their own this year in the draft, and
I probably would have had them right behind Brock Bauers
last year. But the fact is where they ended up
is not favorable situations, at least for this year. And
watched it. A month from now, somebody's gonna be watching
(08:24):
this video and they'll have traded Cole Comett and maybe
the tune's a little bit different, but at least right now,
as of today, this is also an offense that if
it is going to be truly Ben Johnson, which I
don't think it is, Like there's a lot of aspects
to it. But like what I'm saying to say that
about Ben Johnson is that he did use two tight
ends a lot with the Lions. But you look at
this roster and here're some these three wide receivers. How
(08:45):
do you use two tight ends? And then if it's
Loveland all the time, even let's just say Cole Comett
is traded, he's still fighting to be third in targets
for this team. So it just comes down to, yeah,
I'll be really interested in Colston Lovelin in twenty twenty six,
just not this season in twenty twenty five. And that's
what it comes down to.
Speaker 1 (09:03):
We got through those quicks. We have a couple extra
minutes here. I want to ask you, guys to pick
one player that the other person presented just now as
a player to avoid that you feel strongest about, either
because you agree really emphatically or because you really disagree
with the player that they picked. So Fitz, you can
go first. And as a reminder, Jake's picks where Arodric
estimates Jay Flowers to Mario Douglas and Colson Lovelin.
Speaker 2 (09:24):
Yeah, the only like, I don't know if I have
any quibbles with it, I'm a little conflicted on zay Flowers,
Like that's the only one I don't like vehemently agree
with Jake, And I think maybe the one I most
vehemently agree on is like I just don't see any
point in drafting audric estimate, Like I think there's a
very good chance he's a healthy scratch in week one
if he's still on the roster.
Speaker 1 (09:46):
Jake Fitz's picks here that you can choose from Baker Mayfield,
James Cook, Jwan Jennings, and Josh Downs.
Speaker 3 (09:52):
So it was like, progressively I got like more and
more pain as he was prentching, Like, so Baker Mayfield
that I'm just drafting out drafting quarter there. James Cook,
we had that conversation on that show. Jennings was in
my breakout column, although I will say for FITs' argument
is that I mentioned in that column that Jennings is
the a Yuke replacement. Piercell what he brings, I think
(10:15):
starts alongside Jennings. But if Ayuk returns to even ninety
percent a Uke, I think Jennings loses the job and
Piersill stays out there because I think he's a better compliment.
He's not Deebo Samuel, but he replaces that role better
in my opinion. So I do think you can see
Jennings and Piersaal both his breakouts well wan Be, you
know the fact for coming off that shot injury that
(10:36):
you were talking about. If Ayuke never played, I think
they could both break out this year. But the one
that pay me the most is Josh Downs. And here's
where I'll go with it. By the way, more fancy
points per game then Zay Flowers last year. Just to say,
like I agree with you, Fitz, do not try to
talk to me about Daniel Jones improving the situation, but
the truth of what I said and why he was
(10:56):
in the breakout column because Josh Down's ability, his style
I think works whether it is Anthony Richardson or Daniel
Jones at quarterback. Daniel Jones will hit him in the
short to intermediate. Anthony Richardson could hit him in those
big plays out of the slot, but also hit some
over the middle. I just think Downs works well in
both situations. I only have him as a back end
top forty wide receiver, so I actually do like him
(11:19):
a pretty good amount. But if this comes into what
you're talking about fits and all of a sudden, it's
like downs, downs, downs, downs every show everywhere you watch,
and all of a sudden he's being drafted as like
wide receiver thirty eight. Then I would be out on it.
Speaker 1 (11:30):
If you want to steer clear of every guy we
mentioned today, you can tag them as players to avoid
in our cheat sheet Creator. The cheat sheet Creator is
your personal guide to perfect league specific rankings. Visualize your
path to victory as you add tears and tag your busts, breakouts,
or sleepers. Sink your league to craft custom rankings, ensuring
every pick is strategic and tailored to your league settings.
(11:51):
Sink your league and enter your draft with confidence using
the cheat sheet Creator at fantasypros dot com slash sheet
or on the Fantasy Football Draft Wizard app. He Jake
and Fitz, I'm Ryan warmly thanks for tuning in to
our Players to Avoid. We'll see you next time. Thanks
for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football podcast. If
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(12:13):
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