Are We Buying Trey Benson or Cam Skattebo? | Week 4 Buy Low + Sell High Running Back Targets (Ep. 1728) - FantasyPros - Fantasy Football Podcast

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Hello, everybody. Welcome into the Fantasy Pros Football Podcast. I'm
Ryan Warmley, joined as I am every Tuesday morning by
Andrew Ericson. It is extra early because Ericson has a
flight to catch, which is extra rude because it gives
me less time to recover from that Monday night football game.
Yet I am still here. Try to power through. I

(00:21):
told you before the show, I'm pretty much good at
the Ravens. Stop playing primetime games, because I've been deeply
unhappy multiple mornings here this season. You know, you wait
all off season dreaming of big things, and now it's
already like, oh boy, they're staring down you know, the
possibility of one in three going up against the Chiefs
next week, and I'm not feeling great about it.

Speaker 2 (00:39):
Erics Yeah, not only do the Ravens keep losing games,
but you're losing sleep now because you have to stay
up all night to watch these Ravens games for them
just to lose. Because Derek Henner keeps fumbling the ball.
I mean, he's putting on his best Remondre Stevenson act boy,
fumbling the ball in the fourth quarter three full three games.
Does he have the yips again? I've never seen a
guy of his thatcher looks so defeated on the silent

(01:02):
and he's King Henry, and I was immediately thinking about
that meme where it's Mario and he's like, you dropped
this King, and I'm like, Derek Henn, you dropped the
ball again even though you are the King. What's going on? Man?

Speaker 3 (01:11):
Yeah?

Speaker 2 (01:12):
Not good? Watch in the rains right now.

Speaker 1 (01:14):
That actually has a pretty funny meme. I won't put
it on the fantasy froze account for you know, personal reasons,
but that is a pretty good one.

Speaker 3 (01:20):
Yeah.

Speaker 1 (01:21):
I thirty eight to thirty. By the way, as the final.
We do usually talk about Monday night football. I don't
know that there's actually much to say, even setting aside
the jokes of me being, you know, depressed this morning
because we expected a really high score game where everybody
kind of shows out. That is basically what happened. We
did get our first good games this season from Mark
Andrews Andershot Bateman, who had six for ninety one and
two touchdowns. For Andrews, Bateman was five for sixty three

(01:44):
and one touchdown. They had the most targets on the team.
The Lions took away Zay Flowers, who had been really
good this year. I don't think we're panicking on him.
I still think it's a really high floor player who's
going to have spike weeks. I continue to be worried
about the touchdowns, which obviously he didn't get one yesterday.
I was also saying to you, just like I think,
so far at the start of this season is proven
that Lamar is the most valuable player if we are

(02:04):
accounting for the team around him, because he basically is
playing with last year's Bengals defense right now, and he's
playing with like the offensive line looks really bad now.
They've faced a couple of really good defensive linemen, you know,
Miles Garrett eight and Hutches, but it doesn't look good.
And now his his superstar running back, which was the
big case against the winning MVP last year, Like, oh

(02:25):
well he was Dereck Henry. It has a fumble in
every game, including two in the fourth quarter of the losses,
so like, and Lamar has been playing amazing through it. Like,
I think this is the best he's ever looked. Honestly,
it's just everybody else around him is letting him down.

Speaker 2 (02:36):
Yeah, definitely. The I don't know what the MVP odds
are right now, But I'm a shooting Lamar, Josh Allen
justin Herbert's got to be those three guys at the
top across the board.

Speaker 1 (02:44):
I wouldn't be surprised if Herbert ends up winning, just
because people like to give it to, you know, a
new winner for the first time. And he does look awesome,
and the Chargers are gonna win a lot of games.
But I my point is less that, like Lamar must
be the favorite and and just that like he looks
amazing despite everything around and being terrible.

Speaker 2 (02:59):
Yeah, and I imagine now if teams are looking at
Derek Henry and now, don't try to just tackle them,
just go after the ball, Like like maybe that's a
new strategy for teams because he's so hard to tackle anyway,
it's hey, forget about trying to tackle this guy. Just
go from the weak spot, go for the ball. So
we'll see how Derek Henry rebounds in Week four against eight,
another tough matchup run defense for the Kansaity Chiefs.

Speaker 1 (03:20):
Yeah, it's tough because like you're not sitting Derek Henry right,
Like that's not the advice for coming out here giving
but like I would definitely like avoid him in some
kind of any kind of daily fantasy format, and like
I would, I would be lowering my expectations if you're
the type of person who makes like fringe starting decisions
like oh my my second flex. If I expect these
other guys have a bad day, I'm going to go

(03:40):
for the higher ceiling rather than the higher floor.

Speaker 3 (03:42):
Which you know, I.

Speaker 1 (03:44):
On the one hand, I sometimes say, like just pick
the guy who thinks I canna score the most points.
But on the other like I totally get that as
a line up setting strategy. Would I would have a
low expectation for Derek Henry this week because the Chiefs
are are a good run defense and it like you
mentioned the yips as a joke, but like I do
you think it's one of those things that when this
starts to spiral it because like I don't think him
fumbling initially was like a sign of things to come,

(04:07):
even if it plays out that way, because I think
you've become a mental thing where it almost has a
snowball effect, and just like you get this, that snowball
becomes an avalanche, right, and it just gets worse and
worse because it becomes a mental thing.

Speaker 2 (04:20):
Yeah, I mean we see can see these things spiral,
like you said, and if he now he's thinking about it, right,
it just becomes because again it's never an issue until
the guy starts fumbling the ball and it's like, well
what's going on? You start second guessing yourself. And this
is just those with any type of athlete when you
start to go through a slump, you know, whether it's
a baseball, whether you're a kick or you're missing field goals. Like,
it's not about his inability to be a running back
and hold onto the ball. It's just hey, you gotta
squeeze the ball. And now defense is known that they're

(04:41):
going to attack that. So one last thing with the
Ravens too, Mark Andrews is he acel high after two
touchdown one garbage time touchdown as well if people didn't
finished watching the game, one of them was in total,
like garbage time.

Speaker 1 (04:51):
Listen, the way Andrews has been playing this year, you
don't care if it's the.

Speaker 3 (04:54):
Garbage time you'll think you can get.

Speaker 2 (04:57):
I like coming back.

Speaker 1 (05:00):
I was gonna say likely is going to be back soon.
For as much as we really like Likely and think
he could be a superstar. He has never really actually
overtaken Mark Andrews, and the opportunity might have been there
if Andrews was playing really poorly, you know, but if
he's starting to play better, like Lamar does, trust likely,

(05:23):
but he will look Andrews is the guy that he
trusts more than anybody, particularly in the red zone. And
if Andrews is playing well, like multiple years now we've
said like likely, it's kind of more explosive as a
player and his better yards after the catch, and yeah,
it's always been Andrews, you know by the time we
get to a couple months into the season. So I

(05:43):
actually am really genuinely touring on answering that I don't
know if he's a good sell high or not. I
wouldn't blame anybody for selling high and saying, let's, you know,
jump on this opportunity because you don't know when you're
gonna get it again. But I also would not be
surprised if this is similar to last year where a
slow star and then it just turns into a guy
who's like gonna catch ten touchdowns because the offense is

(06:03):
really good, and that's who Lamar looks to.

Speaker 2 (06:06):
Yeah, I mean, if I can flip him for Tucker
Craft right now, I'm trying to do it after Craft's
coming off a stinker.

Speaker 3 (06:10):
So yeah, yeah, I mean, I do like Crafts better.

Speaker 1 (06:13):
The last thing I was gonna send the Ravens and
then we will move off this game is I said
before the season that my biggest concern for the Ravens
was the rush defense. I don't think people talked enough
about Michael Pierce retiring. He did a lot for them
in terms of the run defense. And like, I know
people were very surprised because it's the Ravens, They're at
home in prime time and seeing them get run all

(06:34):
over the way they did, I was not that surprised.
I actually was surprised that the longest run Gibbs had
was nine yards. That was surprising. I thought, I know
that Montgomery had the seventy yard was just crushing. But
I really, like, I think a lot of teams are
gonna run on the Ravens this year. Like I think this,

(06:54):
I have a lot of faith in the secondary secondary
long term this season, I don't have that same faith.
I mean, especially if Madawek is hurt like long term
and he's like neck like loss for them. Yeah, no
van Noy no medweek. Like I don't know, I would
be concerned about the rush defense and like I know,
Isaamaha Checko is tricky to you know, discuss what to

(07:16):
do with him right now, but I would probably start
him against the Arad.

Speaker 2 (07:19):
If you want forty five rushing yards, he's your guy.

Speaker 1 (07:23):
All right, let's suit into our vis and sells. This
is our running backs show. We're gonna be splitting this
into two parts all season long. So this one we're
gonna talk to macro level trade strategy and then dive
deep into the running backs to buy and sell. We'll
have a second part where we hit on receivers, some
quick notes and quarterbacks and tight ends and then you know,
take it from there. But this will be the running
back one, So please, you know, watch or listen to

(07:45):
both shows if you're interested. Before we dive in, we
do like to get some kind of high level, thirty
thousand foot view trade strategy advice from ericson. So heading
into week four, what are you looking at right now?

Speaker 2 (07:55):
Look at the rookies. That's who I'm going to talk
a lot about trying to go after in trade. This
week we saw some rookies breakout in week three. I
wish that I was sharp enough to be ahead of
the curve when it came to Amaron Hampton and quit
John Judkins. I was not. I didn't bring up either
a guy last week of anything. I was kind of
pouring cold water on Omaron Hampton now as she gets
hurt and now like the whole rest of season out

(08:17):
looked completely different from Mayon Hampton after coming off his
best game of his career. So again, just a reminder
that sometimes rookies it takes a couple weeks to get
them going. Sometimes it's just like you just need that
one matchup, which I'm going to talk about today as well.
Some of the players are looking to buys. Hey. Sometimes
in the first couple of weeks of the schedule are
just tougher matchups against good defenses against that position, and
that's maybe why these rookies aren't necessarily firing. But yeah,

(08:39):
a couple weeks in, we saw it in week three,
guys that didn't start that great ended up breaking out.
So I want to be ahead of the curve again,
targeting some of these rookies that are disappointing on people's
fantasy benches.

Speaker 1 (08:49):
I mean, like we don't have him on the list
of players to talk about today, but just looking in
that same game, R. J. Harvey hasn't had that breakout yet,
so he probably is still affordable. And would it shock
anybody if we don't want this to happen, But would
it shock anybody if JK. Dobbins got hurt and was
going to miss significant time and all of a sudden,
now there's this opportunity, right Like, I like, those injuries

(09:11):
happen all the time. It's the NFL, and there is
a particularly you know, injury riddled history player in front
of Harvey right now. So like, I mean, he just
is a good example of like, you know it, maybe
you quote unquote missed the boat on Hampton. There are
other rookies that you maybe haven't mississed but yet, and
that upside is still there even if we're seeing what
the floor can be.

Speaker 2 (09:31):
Also, yeah, use the Hampton breakout not as a oh
this was a missed opportunity, but a reminder like, hey,
like this can still happen, Like these rookie running backs
can still break out this season. It's they're not you know,
not all is lost when it comes to these players.
And to the Harvey point, I didn't mention him. He's
not a specific buy, but he's another player that I
want to try to get if I can get him
for dirt cheap because of the Dobbins injury history, and

(09:51):
he started the last game well, he was a starting
running back for the Denver Broncos. He had four touches
on the first two drives. And if Dobbins had more
of a bigger impact in the later part of the
first half and in the second half of the game
and obviously had a better box score at the end
of it, but Harvey just getting the starting nod just
is an indicator that, hey, there's someone that this player,
this coaching staff is excited about, and I think he's

(10:12):
going to have a bigger role as the season progresses.
So again, not someone I want to bring up secifically,
but someone that, hey, keep your eyes on Esptich.

Speaker 3 (10:17):
You can get it really cheap.

Speaker 1 (10:19):
You've got not one, but two rookie running backs in
your running backs to buy segment.

Speaker 3 (10:22):
Let's start with the first one.

Speaker 2 (10:23):
Yeah, I'm going to go with Ashton Gendieks. I think
that Week four is going to be his breakout game.
I think that we look at what he's done so
far through three weeks, it has not been great. It's
been lackluster, I think, to say the least. But he's
still doing the things that we expected when it comes
to forcing miss tackles. Through three weeks, he's top five
in the NFL and force miss tackles and he's coming
off his best game to date sixty three rushing yards.

(10:45):
So I've seen steady improvement from Ashon Genty every single week.
You know, he's getting better every single week as he's
getting another NFL game under his belt. And I think
he's had some tougher matchups against some of the better
run defenses in the NFL. But this week that's not
the case. Like he's played in the Chicago but like
no team gives up more yards before contact than the
Chicago Bears. So whenever you watch these Raiders games, you're saying,

(11:06):
man Genty has no space to run, there's nowhere him
to go. Like he keeps breaking all these tackles for
two yard gains. That's not exciting. But this is the
matchup where oh you can finally see him ripping off
some of those big runs that made him such a
household name at Boise State, so ashing Genty for me,
I think that managers might be just starting to get
sick and tired of man this guy was supposed to
be so good. He's not that good. He's averaging two

(11:27):
yards to carry. This guy is not that not the
player I thought he was going to be. I want
to get rid of this player, similar to kind of
what we were the sentiment around Hampton a little bit
before Naje Harris's injury. So I think right now this
is their time. Like, if you're gonna go after Genty,
you have to before week four because I think this
is going to be his breakout game.

Speaker 1 (11:43):
Do you feel like, and maybe this is less of
a question specific to Genty and more of a macro
level kind of just your your experience with making trades
and fancy, do you feel like managers are less willing
or they have a higher asking price for players that
they drafted really early. Because I do feel like like

(12:05):
even if you, if a manager in a vacuum, will
look at ASHRAA Genty and say, yeah, this has been disappointing.
I want to sell him with the name value. I
feel like a lot of the managers that I interact
with in trying to trade in my leagues. So maybe
this is just anecdotal, but I feel like a lot
of them are like if I spend a first or
second round pick on this guy, I am much less
willing to accept the sunk cost of selling low. And

(12:27):
like even if you go down with the ship and
that happens, like like if Genty was a true bust
to this season off season long, there are managers out
there who would still be starting him in week eleven
and they'd be you know, two and eight on the
season because they just keep rolling him out. Like like
I do you have that experience too, where maybe it's
not as easy to buy low and a guy like

(12:48):
Genty just because hey, I spent the fourteenth overall pick
on this guy, I can't.

Speaker 3 (12:54):
I literally can't sell low even if I want to.
Does that make sense?

Speaker 1 (12:57):
You know?

Speaker 2 (12:57):
I think that definitely makes sense. It's stuffing hardy to
get the players that were drafted so highly because those
managers want to see the ROI. They want to see
this pick workout. They don't want to jump ship, like
you said so early on. But if you are oh
and three and Ashton Genny's big part of why you're
oh and three. I think that you may be more
opt to move off of them because you may even acknowledge, Hey,

(13:18):
I think that Gent could still be a big hit
in the second half of the season, but I'm sitting
at O and three right now and I can't afford
to wait necessarily. So maybe if you're looking for a
Gent trade, you look for a manager that is owing
three with ashen gen d because we know that the
only three teams are much more And this goes into
the other macro level of kind of approaching trades this
week is the only three managers like those are the

(13:39):
managers you want to come after when it comes to trades,
because they're going to be open for business as I
try to blow up their team and try to make
moves because they want to get bat In contention, you
don't want to start ZHO to four or even like
OH to five. So I think that would be my
other layer of Okay, a three and O team with Gent,
they're probably not going to move them because they, hey,
it's been okay, Like I'm still winning games. Genty's going
to be continuing to get back. The Bears matchup is

(14:01):
really good this week. I'll hold him, but I think
an O to three team that has Aston Genty might
be more opt to move off of him.

Speaker 1 (14:07):
I is there just just because it's a big name.
I want to ask you one more follo up question
on Genty? Is there a specific name in mind of
a type of guy you would look to move for him?

Speaker 3 (14:15):
Travis Adon Okay, yeah, rest of the season rankings, they
are very close.

Speaker 1 (14:18):
Gents RB eleven and etn is AREB fourteen, so not
far off.

Speaker 2 (14:22):
Yeah, I think that. I think that's a deal you
get done just based on what they've done so far.

Speaker 1 (14:27):
All Right, who's the other rookie running back that you
want to trade for? And, by the way, I think
has been mentioned on every episode of the show so
far this season.

Speaker 2 (14:34):
Travian Henderson because this has to be the time to
get him, because if he doesn't hit against the Carolina Panthers,
who the Patriots are playing in Week four. After you
saw both veteran running backs on the Patriots fumble combined
for three fumbles in Week three, Stevens and then two
Gibson had one. After those guys fumbled, they didn't touch
the ball again in the fourth quarter, it was all

(14:55):
Travion Henderson. So I know Mike Grabel said post game
that they still w't remind you to be a big
part of what they're doing moving forward, YadA, YadA, et cetera,
et cetera. But I don't think that that's necessarily going
to be indicative of what we see. I think that
this is going to be Henderson's opportunity to kind of
take this backfield and carve out a standalone specific role.
We already know what he can do from a pass

(15:16):
game perspective, but the explosive rushes really haven't been there
for him this year. Even though he's averaged four targets
per game, he still hasn't ripped off that really big run.
And even if you just look at the box score
from last week, really low yards per carry. I don't
think he looked bad. He just didn't get any space
to rip off one of those big runs. But if
he's ever got to run for a fifty sixty yard game,
it's going to be against Carolina Panthers. Like, we know,

(15:37):
this is the worst run defense in the NFL, and
I know that even the Falcons didn't score against the
Panthers last week he still saw some big runs from
me John Robinson, especially as a pass catcher. So I
think this has to be the game for Henderson to
really hit. And the Pagers actually have a lot of
good running back matchups coming up, even after they face
Carolina at home this week. So I think that right
now is this is kind of like your ass chance
to get in on Henderson because I think there Week four, again,

(16:00):
similar to Genty, is a breakout potential game for this
rookie running back.

Speaker 1 (16:04):
Yeah, like Henderson, the case is so clear, right, like
there has never been more obvious, like this will be
an opportunity here because of the fumbles of everybody else
in the backfield, and he's not a guy who fumbles himself,
so I get it. I mean, I guess kind of
same for Genty. I'm curious, like what you think an

(16:27):
appropriate price is to pay for Henderson, because unlike Genty,
this was not a first round pick for people, so they,
you know, I think, are maybe more inclined to say, like, yeah,
I just want to be done with it. But there
are gonna be you know, pretty smart managers who will
look at the same situation and say, well, let me
hold on one more week, because I think the breakout's coming.
So if you want to entice that manager and say no,

(16:49):
I know you want to hold on for one more week,
but I am this convicted about it, Like, how how
aggressive are you willing to be in this trade?

Speaker 2 (16:56):
Would keenan Allen get it done? A player that's performed
at a really high level, has scored a touchdown every
single week. Another player that comes to mind, Tony Pollard
is getting all the usage in the Titans backfield, scored
a touchdown last week, has really good. I mean the
thing with Henderson is the usage has been really up
and down and really inconsistent, where he's not seeing as
many touches as you feel confident about starting him in

(17:17):
your lineup every single week. So those are some names
that I've kind of thought about. Maybe it's not aggressive enough,
but those are some names that come to mind to
players that kind of profile a little bit of like
sell highs, whereas Henderson maybe not takingly like a buy low.
He's a buy low based on a box score, and
you know, just depending on how that manager feels about
what his outlook is going to be. Just given the

(17:38):
current status of the Patriots running back depth chart and
the lack of ball security that they have.

Speaker 1 (17:44):
I think Pollard is a good one, especially if, like,
let's say, the Chase Brown manager is also the trade
Von Henderson manager, like somebody who is saying, like, I
just need somebody who has a higher floor if there,
because I'm zero to three and you know my RB
one is now looking really bad rest of season because
of the offensive situation, you know, whatever it is. I

(18:05):
think a situation like that, a guy like Pollard would
be pretty appealing to an N zero three manager who's
looking to avoid you know, going on four.

Speaker 3 (18:13):
So I think that's a good one.

Speaker 1 (18:16):
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Speaker 3 (19:26):
All Right, running backs to sell ericson who do you have?

Speaker 2 (19:28):
Yeah, So these are some players I already mentioned as
guys that I would sell for the players that we
were trying to buy. So the first guy is Travis Etn.
And this is a player that I have a decent
amount of in most of my leagues because I liked
him at his cost. This year, I liked going into
the Jaguars backfield, and Etn has performed well above what
we kind of expected as a running back, kind of
going outside that top thirty range. But this past week

(19:50):
kind of brings up more concerns for me. So we
saw Jacksonville kind of use more of a three man
committee more than we saw the first two weeks. Eatn
snaps were down to fifty four percent of Quinn Allen,
the seventh round rookie, he went up to thirty percent.
He actually led the team in routes run. Bechelle Tooton
also played seventeen percent of the snaps. He also scored
another touchdown. So three headed committee for the first time

(20:10):
all year. And I actually mentioned and tease Etn as
a cell high in last weeks beyond the waiver wire piece,
just because I was looking ahead at some of the
schedule for ETN and it gets pretty tough. The first
two weeks of the season, he had really good matchups
for a running back, and he had those really explosive
running plays. The thing with ETN that I want to

(20:32):
point out is his yards per carry five point nine
that ranks third in the NFL. But when you look
at his success rate, which is a better indicative or
better way of describing how a player is actually rushing
on a down to down basis, he's seventh worst in
success rate. So his yards per carry is really boosted
by a lot of his really big runs that he
had over the first couple weeks of the season. In
this past week, it was a tougher matchup, his yards

(20:53):
per carry was not nearly as efficient, and I just
don't like a lot of the matchups he has over
the next couple weeks. He's got the forty nine Ers,
he has the Seahawks that he's playing, he has the
Los Angeles Rams he's gonna be playing. So I am
concerned that his officialty is going to continue to decline
and they're going to use more of these running backs
and in the fact that he only had two targets
last week, that they're using Lee Quinn Allen Moore as
a pass catcher. I am one of the biggest fans

(21:13):
of Bechelle Toot and again, I really still think that
he can be this year's Bucky Irving, and that concerns
me for Etn down the stretch in the second half
of the season. Does Eten have a vice grip on
this RB one role the rest of the way, I'm
not so sure. So Etn has been great if you
have drafted him, but I think right now is a
time to hey, I can really cash out for a
strong return, which is why I think you can potentially

(21:34):
get a guy like an Ashton Genti. Someone's been really
disappointed that you're like more in the second half the year,
whereas Etn, I'm not as optimistic, just based on the
upcoming schedule.

Speaker 1 (21:43):
Yeah, you know, I was gonna the first plight I
was going to bring up to just play Devil's Advocate
was going to be that, you know, in terms of
the usage this week, like this was a kind of
a weird game and be like Houston's defense is really
good and maybe in other matchups, you know, we wouldn't
see it play lay out that same way. Maybe that
was something specific for this game, but you are right,

(22:04):
you were mentioning some of the defenses that they are
facing coming up. You didn't even mention the Chiefs that
they're playing in two weeks, which is another tough one.
So you know, before the bye it's a pretty tough stretch,
and then coming out of the by they get the Raiders,
but then after the Raiders they get Houston again, and
then the Chargers, who are a really good defense. So
you know, between now and week eleven they get like one,
maybe two, you know, good matchups. It's not a it's

(22:27):
not a good stretch now. It's a little bit easier
later in the season, but you know, you're worried about
right now if you are, you know, wanting to sell
high capitalize on his strong start, you because you won't
be able to do that later if these matchups do
present real issues here. So I do think that's a
good point to make on what his upcoming schedule looks like,
and he he is somebody that again, it's almost a

(22:51):
reverse of gent what we talked about before, where I
feel like anybody who took ETN with like the ninetieth
pick in their draft is like I hit a home
run in terms of value, like this was I did
everything right and now I get to reap those rewards.

Speaker 3 (23:05):
And I feel like those players.

Speaker 1 (23:07):
Again it's the opposite reason of gent but I feel
like sometimes those players are hard to get people to
move off of, but you're saying to actually move off
of them, So you would imagine that everybody else would
be very interested in paying up for him, I guess,
is the ultimate point I'm trying to land.

Speaker 2 (23:21):
Well, I think too does Eten's not as much of
a flash of the pan, where like a Quentin Johnson,
for example, like he's someone that you can write about. Okay,
he's obviously he's sell high. He's not going to keep
this up. But no one's gonna give you anything Quinn Johnson.
But we know that. But Etien has been a top
five fantasy running back before and with the Jaguars offense
with Trevor Lawrence, so there is a bit of Okay,

(23:43):
he has done this. He does have a strong body
of work, and so far he's been good this season.
But to your point about the schedule, who did he
face the first two weeks of the year Panthers and
Bengals to do all the worst run defenses in the NFL,
and the minute that he faces somebody better in Houston,
we see his efficiency fall off. So yes, again, I
don't know exactly how these players can be valued in
your leagues, but for the upcoming stretch, I very strongly

(24:06):
believe that Etan's efficiency in production is going to fall off.
So I would be putting him on the block and
seeing what you can get for him.

Speaker 3 (24:13):
Who's your other running back to sell?

Speaker 2 (24:14):
My other running back to sell is the other player
I mentioned, the veteran Tony Pollard, So Hollard for me,
he has been a workhorse for the Tennessee Titans to
the first three weeks of the season. Now, the Titans
offense has been really underwhelming. They've been dealing with offensive
line injuries. The receivers haven't been has great. Calvin Ridley,
Elkiu man or cam Ward has struggled a bit. I
think that lots to do with Callahan, honestly, being the

(24:36):
head coach. I just don't think that he I think
he's really holding cam wore back to be totally honest.
But the thing I want to point out with Pollard
is twofold, where yes, he's receiving a lot of carries,
but he's getting no targets in this backfield because cam
Wore does not target running backs in the passing game.
This was something that we looked at when scouting cam
Ward that this is not something he likes to do.
He wants to be a pocket passer, read the field,

(24:58):
get the ball downfield to his receivers. He doesn't want
to check the ball down to his running back. Through
three weeks, no team has less targets to running backs
than the Tennessee Titans thirty second in the NFL and
running back target share, So that's hurting Tony Pollard in
terms of what his upside can be. The second part
is Taje. Spears is going to be coming back to
this backfield. He's eligible to come off ir starting in
Week five. So I'm trying to get ahead of this

(25:20):
because last year under Callahan, we saw this backfield become
more of a committee between Spears and Tony Pollard. Now
I can't guarantee that Spears is going to be healthy
all year long. He's had a long injury history, but
I'm just trying to look for ways, Hey, could things
go south for Pollard? Is he going to be able
to keep up this type of volume but just on
a carry and he again he's in RB two like
that's what he's been. So if you can get a

(25:42):
little bit more for him right now, again chasing some
upside with some of these rookie players like I mentioned
that have been underperforming. For Pollard, who you made a
good point about, you feel good about starting me in
your lineup, especially right now because again Spears still isn't back,
so it's not like he's a total zero in week four,
and we don't know how long it'll take Spears to
actually get back up to speed. So Pollard still has
some for the next couple weeks. But I think I
want to use that to try to ship him off

(26:03):
because I think the long term, I think that his
production could fall off.

Speaker 1 (26:08):
I think he's just very clearly a high floor, not
high ceiling player in this in this offensive situation, the
floor could change even with you know, when Spears is back.
But there's there's a lot of like data out there
about that how high floor players don't actually really matter
as much as you think they do in fantasy. All

(26:29):
that really matters is getting the ceiling guys and you know,
Spike Weeks and things like that. So like, if you
are zero and three, this is somebody that I think
you could be talked into actually buying and not selling
like you have him. But if you have if you
are two and one or three and oh, I think
this is a great sell because I think you want

(26:51):
to be just aiming for the most upside you can find,
and this is the time of year with no spears
where you would imagine the most upside for Pollard, and
it's not playing out that way. Again, the floor has
been totally fine. You know, he's averaging something around nine
or ten points a game, but the floor doesn't really
matter all that much, and it could go away. There's

(27:13):
no such thing as a real floor for any player
because they can get hurt. But it could go away.
You know, a spear's coming back even if Pollard stays healthy.
So I think I think this one is maybe a
little more dependent on your situation at least. But but
if you have a winning record, I'm totally on board
with selling Pollard and would strongly encourage it. He's uh,
by the way, RB, I look, are we twenty five

(27:35):
in our consensus rest of the season rankings. So the
players ahead of him, Skataboo and Trey Benson are the
two names right ahead of him that you know you
can paint that upside.

Speaker 2 (27:44):
Yeah, I think those are sharp names to go after
because I think there's definitely excitement about those players. But
there's definitely concern of is this just a flash of
the pan, Like is Benson going to actually be the
bell cow or are they gonna use Da Marcado in
some way? Whereas with Pollard, maybe manager feels I know
exactly what Pollard is. I know exactly what is I
know what do you expect from him? But you can
take that risk, I think moving off because I don't

(28:05):
think if you trade away Pollard, you're gonna look up
eight weeks from now and say, man, I traded Tony
Pollar away and he was a league winner. I don't
think that's the scenario. And I'm ready to be cole
Takes exposed on this in eight weeks when Tony Pollard
is a league winner.

Speaker 3 (28:18):
Let's see some buyseller hold trios.

Speaker 1 (28:21):
I've got three of them for you here at the
running back position. I did these very late last night
after I didn't watch the Ravens game live because I
was out of the house, and then I came back
and watched the full recording very late, and then I
put these together. So I can't speak to the headspace
I was in if these are not good trios. I

(28:41):
mainly just kept guys who were ranked close to each
other in rest of the season rankings without thinking too much.

Speaker 3 (28:45):
About, well, who would actually be the obvious one here?

Speaker 1 (28:47):
But we'll see what you say by seller hold Alvin Kamara,
CHEWBA Hubbard, Chase Brown.

Speaker 2 (28:53):
Selling Chase Brown them sold them last week and nothing
is changing from that about well.

Speaker 1 (28:59):
On that point because selling, do you think it's too
hard to sell him right now? Because you know vibes
are just so bad, like you're not gonna get enough
out of him, but you're saying that doesn't matter.

Speaker 3 (29:07):
You would just sell him.

Speaker 2 (29:08):
The offensive line is is terrible and that's not gonna
change had they got another guy that's injured.

Speaker 3 (29:13):
So I don't know where you're supposed to.

Speaker 2 (29:14):
I don't know how it's gonna improve. Again. It's not
all Chase Brown's fault, but I mean, maybe you wait
for him to score a touchdown and then try to
move him, but I just yeah, it feels so bad
for Chase Brown, but I just don't think it's gonna work.
I would say Alvin Kamara is probably a He's probably
the hold for me because he's gonna have better weeks.
I know this was a tougher matchup for him, playing
on the road against Seattle, So I think that he's

(29:36):
probably a hold. And then I guess Chuba Hubber is
probably the buye for me. Again, I I don't particularly
like buying any of these running backs. Maybe Kamara would
be the better buy then because he will have at
least he I feel pretty confident about his volume, and
Cchuba Hubber kind of split a little bit more with
the work with Rico Dawdle, so that does concern me.
So you know what, where I'm not buying any of

(29:57):
these guys, So I'm making my own role.

Speaker 1 (29:59):
So you're rejecting the premise of this second I told
you the.

Speaker 2 (30:03):
Running backs I wanted to buy, and they were not
on this list.

Speaker 3 (30:07):
Well, yeah, we already talked about it.

Speaker 1 (30:08):
That's why I didn't include him here, all right, So
we're not buying Kamara, Hubbard or Chase Brown. Let's go
to the next trio. Trey Benson, Cam Scataboo, JK.

Speaker 3 (30:19):
Dobbins definitely would sell JK.

Speaker 2 (30:21):
Dobbins. We talked about Harvey a little bit earlier. It's
just not a matter of if it's a matter of
when the wheels fall off, the tires fall off of JK. Dobbins.
He's been really good to start the year, which is
what we expected, kind of in a similar way that
we talked about with Tony Pollard beginning of the season.
This was when Dobbins was gonna be most productive. But
there has to be an opportunity to get off the
get off the bus, get off the train, because eventually

(30:41):
we're going to see the other running backs work in
a little bit more or if Dobbins suffers an injury.
So he would definitely be the sell for me. I
think Scatu I think Scataboo would probably be trying to
think the hold or the buy. I think I think
you could probably buy Trey Benson maybe a little bit.
Who you think is more expensive, Benson or Scatabo.

Speaker 1 (31:03):
I see, I think Benson will be more expensive because
it's you know, we had this clear runway of James
Connor out for the season, and he's a player that
some people like did really like, you know, going into
his rookie season and thinking that he could have overtaken
James Connor in the second half of last year.

Speaker 3 (31:18):
It didn't happen.

Speaker 1 (31:19):
But now he has this opportunity, and I think it's
a better offense than the Giants offense will be throughout
the course of the season. I think they are back
to back in the rest of season consensus rankings, and
Skataboo is one spot higher. I don't think that's how
it would actually be about. Like I see Benson, I
would much rather have him than Skataboo, and I assume
he would be more expensive. Every league is different, right,

(31:41):
it's all contextual, But I would imagine Benson's kind of
the clearer player that you'd want to have right now.

Speaker 2 (31:46):
I think I agree with you, and I think that
even if he is more expensive, I think I would
still try to buy Trey Benson, to your point, better
offensive ecosystem where he could really be a league winner
if he takes on this James Connor roll. We've seen
the Cardinals one of the better running offenses in the NFL.
Again did not work out last week. It's a tougher
forty nine ers defense. Obviously, Connor got hurt last week.

(32:06):
But I liked Benson a ton. He was my RB
one in that classroom last year. I know that he'd
not do that much as a rookie, but I believe
in his upside. And I mean, if you could move
Skataboo in a piece to get Benson, I don't think
that that's like automatically rejected. I think that a manager
will look at that being man. Scattaboo looks so good
on Sunday Night football. He's he's the favorite, He's everyone's
favorite player on the Giants. We all love this guy.

(32:28):
My wife is watching the game. She thinks I want
to camp scatibyy Jersey, Like, let's go, let's sign up
for this and this is gonna be so much fun.
So yes, I will hold Skataboo, but I want to
buy Trey Benson and then sell the other running back
what we mentioned earlier.

Speaker 3 (32:42):
I don't remember Dobb Doppins, Yes, stops all right.

Speaker 1 (32:45):
Last one byseller hold Ja Cory Krofsky, Merritt, Quinn, Shawn Judkins,
David Montgomery.

Speaker 2 (32:50):
I want to sell Dave Montgomery. I just think that
this is one of the best performances we're going to
get from him all season. It's a primetime game, everybody's
watching off the big runs. But his snapshirt still significantly
less than Jamior Gibbs and significantly less than it was
last season, So he's taken a bigger step back than
he was last year. So I think that this is
a good opportunity to sell high on a player like

(33:11):
David Montgomery. Judkins is probably the hold for me. I
don't know what's going to happen with the suspension thing,
so I think that is always going to be in
the back of manager's minds when you're trying to make
trades for him, where I don't think you're ever going
to get fair market price for him, just because there's
always that risk that he doesn't serving a suspension at
some point down the line. I think if you have him,
I think you just hold him. And then the other
running back Chakoi Crosskey Merritt. I get that Chris Rodriguez

(33:34):
kind of started this game, but I still think cross
Key Merriat just looks so good. I know that McNichols
ended up having the big rushing touchdown it's still not
super clear like how the backfield is kind of what
order it's in. But I think that in the long term,
Crossky Merriot, when we're talking about this backfield in a
month from now, I think that he's gonna be clear guy,
the clear RB one in this backfield. So cross Key Merritt.

(33:55):
As people are kind of panicking, I think because of
Rodriguez and what he was doing in the first in
the beginning of that game, I think that he's probably
the vibe. Because I think that he's going to be
you can get him for probably next to nothing.

Speaker 1 (34:08):
Don't forget about our weekly trade live stream on our
YouTube channel, where you can come and ask your specific
fantasy trade questions. We'll be with you every Wednesday at
three pm Eastern. For those listening on the podcast, just
go to YouTube dot com slash Fantasy Pros, subscribe and
click the bell to be notified of all of our
weekly live streams. Right, we'll go ahead and wrap things
up there again. Part two come in either on YouTube

(34:28):
before watching there or audio wherever you listen to your podcast.
We'll be diving into wide receivers and a little bit
of talk on the quarterbacks and tight ends as well.
For Ericson, I'm Ron warmly thanks for tuning in. We'll
see you next time. Thanks for listening to the Fantasy
Pros Fantasy Football podcast. If you love the show, the
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(34:49):
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Are We Buying Trey Benson or Cam Skattebo? | Week 4 Buy Low + Sell High Running Back Targets (Ep. 1728)

Episode Transcript

Hosts And Creators

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.css-14f5ked{margin:0;word-break:break-word;display:-webkit-box;-webkit-box-orient:vertical;box-orient:vertical;-webkit-line-clamp:2;overflow:hidden;}Are We Buying Trey Benson or Cam Skattebo? | Week 4 Buy Low + Sell High Running Back Targets (Ep. 1728)