Best Ball Game Theories | Strategies To Help You DOMINATE In 2025 (Ep. 1589) - FantasyPros - Fantasy Football Podcast

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
Welcome into the Fantasy Pros Best Ball Show with myself,
Tom Strack, and Andrew Erickson. Back again for a number
of our Monday shows here every four pm Eastern on
a Monday, on Twitch and of course YouTube podcast wherever
you get your content, we will be there at some point. Tonight,
no draft tonight, We've got some real content that we
need to get into. We're going to talk about the

(00:22):
best best ball strategies that could work in twenty twenty five,
and some of them but won't. Myself and Andrew we're
going to break it down and go through each of them,
give our opinions on him, talk historical stats, whether they've worked,
failed in the past or not. But before we do that, Andrew,
has been a lot happening over the last week. It's
like OTA's are just going up a notch. Mini camps

(00:44):
are starting for some teams, and I think we've got
to hit on some news from the top. But you're
starting to feel like we're getting the stuff coming through.
If it's going to impact your rankings more.

Speaker 2 (00:53):
I think so.

Speaker 3 (00:53):
Yeah, We're getting some signings. Some of these veteran players
are finally starting to get homes, and I think that's
to do with terms of the comment sentaory picks and
how those are allocated to certain teams. So we're starting
to see some of these veterans. Nick Chubb, it looks
like he's potentially going to sign with the Houston Texans.
It hasn't been one hundred percent confirmed yet, but that
seems like where it's going.

Speaker 2 (01:13):
JK.

Speaker 3 (01:14):
Dobbins was visiting with the Denver Broncos last week. So
does that end up getting contract, We're still not sure.
But and of course, I mean we got to talk
about Aaron Rodgers. He finally has a home now with
Pittsburgh Steelers. So yeah, we're seeing the final dominoes fall
with some of these teams putting their rosters together.

Speaker 1 (01:30):
Yeah, so you touched on briefly there, but Nick Chubb
reported to be signing with the Texans on a one
year deal. Joe Mixon reportedly was in a walking boot
last week. Nobody's seen pictures of it, but they were
whispers of it coming out of Texans camp. And then
it kind of begs the question, is this insurance against
Joe Mixon? Is this because Damian piss has just been

(01:52):
so volatile? Is this just saying Woody Marx isn't going
to be anything in his rookie season. What does it
kind of do to running back line escape for the Texans?
For you?

Speaker 3 (02:02):
I think for me it makes jow Mix a little
bit tougher of a click in the middle rounds where
he goes. I think that when he's healthy, he'll be
productive as the lead back for the Texans. But how
will the offensive line shake up this year again? Him
as terrible last year. They've done everything in terms of
changing the personnel. We'll see if it works out again.
They're doing they're really taken to heart a diition by subtraction,

(02:24):
by getting rid of everybody from last year and hoping
that it turns out in a different way. But Nick Chubb,
even after the injury, I think I don't think we'll
ever see the expulsiveness necessarily return for him for an
older player. But Nick Chubb, part of what made him
so good and be able to average five yards per
carry and seemingly any situation was he's got great vision.
I don't think that's gonna go away even after the

(02:45):
knee injuries. So I think that he can probably do
what's asked of him in terms of the blocking for
the Houston Texans, and I think that this puts Damian Pierce.

Speaker 2 (02:52):
I think he's toast.

Speaker 3 (02:54):
He has never seen eyeed eye with this new coaching
step since his rookie year, so I think that he
could and to get cut or move to a different team.
And what he marks, I wasn't necessarily the highest on
as a prospect coming in. He has really he had
a lot of receiving numbers in really college gimmicky systems
where a lot of running backs came in the NFL
with a lot of receptions, and it looks really good

(03:15):
on paper, but it doesn't necessarily translate to the NFL.
So I think it's just clear as Nick Job is
the primary handcuff and I think has a lot of
upside if this text office get hit. But I think
that he's obviously still limited because he expulsiveness and he
doesn't really he's not a featured player in the passing game.

Speaker 1 (03:32):
Yeah, I think, you know, he can work okay as
a pass catcher in screens bits like that, but we're
never going to see him turn into the late CMC talent,
particularly at this point in his career. In the eighth
year of Nick Chubb's career. Like we saw last year
him put up yachts Percari below five the first time
in his career, down at three point three. So expecting
a lot from him is probably not something we should

(03:55):
be doing. I don't think that you're going to be
necessarily needing to draft him in Best Ball. Interesting to
see where his ADP does get to fine you want
to take a late dart for on him, Okay, but
he's not a priority for me. Maybe he will be
in part of these builds that we get to in
a little bit. But another player who has been on
the move Jyed Alexander. Now we don't always talk defensive players,

(04:17):
but the Packers, it feels like their secondary is just
starting to fin out quite a bit. Do you think
that this is the sort of thing we should be
paying attention to. Do you think there's any situation where
the Packers, who want to be run heavy last year
end up having to be one of these teams where
their secondary is so poor that they just end up
throwing the ball a lot, or do you think there's
some talent in that secondary ver has caused Packers to

(04:38):
move on from JayR Alexander.

Speaker 3 (04:40):
I think that they just can't trust to Alexander, and
he's someone that hasn't really been able to stay healthy.
I know that there were rumors that, yeah, we're gonna
keep him around, We're gonna try to make it work,
but it seems like those end up not being true.
They're going to release the cornerback. So this could be
one of these defenses where hey, who is the perimeter
receiver playing the roommate Packers defense this week? We're trying

(05:01):
to funnel targets because they have Night Hobbs who they
signed in free agency, So if he's going to play
in the slot, he's probably their best corner. Then they
have guys that you can't really rely on on a
down to down basis to lock down one side of
the field like Alexander could do at his peak of
his powers.

Speaker 2 (05:15):
Now the guy I have guys with experience.

Speaker 3 (05:17):
But it's one thing to say, hey, this guy's a
lot of experience versus hey, this guy's actually good in
terms of stopping opposing wide receivers. So I do think
that combining this with the fact, Okay, Jordan Love healthier,
they drafted a wide receiver in Round one, I think
that are going to try to throw the ball a
little bit more in twenty twenty five, and I think
that is good for the fantasy value of a lot
of these Packers offensive players.

Speaker 1 (05:37):
Yeah. Absolutely. If you watching us on twitch here, let
us know who you have been adjusting your strategies around
over last week. We appreciate everyone following the channel. Io Joe,
I see you following the channel. Very much appreciated Anthony
Richardson out indefinitely with shoulder injury. This one feels like
it would have been all we'd been talking about last year,

(05:58):
but then Amthhony Richardson passed ball at a rate worse
than Tebow last year, So now it really felt like
there were people who were completely in or out on him.
I've been quite out on him. I was very much
in on him last year, but I really struggled to
see a path to consistent relevancy for him. Do you
think Amphony Richardson's reaching a point where we shouldn't be
drafting him in Best Ball now?

Speaker 3 (06:18):
Andrew, No, I think that he's actually a better Best
Ball pick now because he's not going to start the
season as the starter, and I think that puts us
in a position where he's more likely to then be
the starter Week sixteen and seventeen because Daniel Jones, again
another quarterback who's never been the healthiest. He's played sixteen
games one time in his NFL career, whether that's because
he was venture or whether it's because of injuries. So

(06:41):
it's similar to the field's situation we talked about last
year where it actually ended up being a bad thing
for those investing in fields and best ball that he
got the starting job because he played in the beginning
of the season where the fantasy points aren't necessarily as
important as is the end of the season. And is
this situation where they played ten weeks in Daniel Jones.
Is Daniel Jones have to be really good to basically

(07:04):
completely shut the door unless Richeston gets placed on injured
reserve or something like that to just take him out
of the quarterback options altogether. So I think that this
again is going to nuke his adp make him basically
a last round pick that you can take. But I mean,
among the other guys are drafting in the eighteenth round,
if Richardson starts a game, he has a good chance

(07:26):
of hitting your lineup. There's not that many players like
that in the eighteenth round or twentieth round in terms
of DraftKings. So again, he has to fall first, but
I think it's worth buying the dip, and I think
that he makes He makes a lot of sense in
some of these three quarterback builds, especially with the Colts
schedule Week sixteen seventeen. They're home against the forty nine
Ers and the Jaguars, like those are pretty enticing matchups.

(07:47):
So again, as long as he doesn't get placed on
injured reserve and misses the entire season, then I think
he's actually kind of a better pick.

Speaker 1 (07:53):
Now. Yeah, I like that, And we're all going to
get into late round QB as one of the many
best wall strategies we're going to talk about tonight. Amphony
Richardson is down twelve spots on Underdog from one to
seventy three down to one eighty six now, so just
fitting spots all in all, another late round QB. Aaron
Rodgers finally signed with the Steelers. We might not need
to talk about this one for long because we've spent

(08:13):
a lot of time on Aaron Rodgers this offseason, But
did it move anything for you? Did you have any
kind of players that you'd stuck in a hold in
pattern of and you just you knew where you were
moving them in your rankings, or was it just a
case of you've been assuming this was going to happen
for so long in the set.

Speaker 3 (08:27):
Yeah, I think I was kind of assuming that he
was going to be here, if anything, had just kind
of made the clicks in the final submission on the
rankings with Steelers players, feel a little bit more. Okay,
I know who the quarterback is. I'm not the ten
percent chance that it is Mason Rudolph. I don't no
longer have to consider that. Even though Rodgers is an
older quarterback at forty one years old, is he going
to play the full season?

Speaker 2 (08:46):
We don't know.

Speaker 3 (08:47):
I think that really for him, it's he makes all
the other guys that we would be drafting anyway, just
he keeps their fantasy relevance alive. Right, We're not worried
about this offense getting it completely nuked. I think that
they have enough competence betwe Rodgers, who again at points
last year, I think that he was fine. He's not
a needle mover in any way. I don't think he's
an elevator in any way. But can he keep the

(09:07):
Steelers offensive float that wants to run the ball a lot?

Speaker 2 (09:09):
Yeah, I think so.

Speaker 3 (09:10):
And if anything, if I have to skew it positive,
I think that maybe Caleb Johnson, the rookie running back
they have, I think maybe could catch more passes than
most people are giving him credit for because again not
really using that role in college, but Aaron Rodgers just
they do doesn't want to get hit. It's the same
thing with Tom Brady where they just want to get
the ball out and that means targets to the running backs.
So we saw resall I have a lot of targets
last year at Braylan Allen. I mean, all the Jets

(09:32):
running backs were involved in the passing game. So even
though Caleb Johnson, again Jalen Warren's probably the primary pass
catcher out of the back, think Caleb Johnson is a
rookie running back and fits the Arthur Smith's scheme really well.
I think he catches more passes than most people would assume.

Speaker 1 (09:46):
Yeah, well, I think that that's probably one of the
easiest parts of the Steelers offense to invest in insto
running back room. And let's let's not forget our guy
Jalen Warren. But one more player and then we're going
to get on to main topics tonight, the best best
strategies to use in twenty twenty five. But DJ Moore,
there was an interesting report today, I think it was
the Chicago Tribunal, and it said that DJ Moore had

(10:09):
been getting shouted at consistently by Ben Johnson for getting
things wrong in practice. DJ Moore then tells reports, I
don't even know if I'm going to touch the ball
as much or be used in the same way as
in previous years. But then in the report when you
went into it, there was conflicting things in there. There
seem to be a lot of talk about how they're
feeling out of the system, they're working things out. DJ

(10:31):
Moore has dropped since the beginning of May. By twelve
picks on Underdark down or round, pick fort, you have
to be in as high as pick twenty eight. Do
you have any concerns? Are you just more interested in
the cheap pieces or do you think that talent will
win out on this one and DJ Moore will be fine.

Speaker 3 (10:45):
I think that I'm just interested in the cheap pieces.
I think that we talked about DJ Moore as one
of my overvalued players in one of the shows we
did a couple of weeks back, Tom and I felt
that I just like the values more on the cheaper
Bears receivers because I think that Ben Johnson still doesn't
know who is going to be his number one wide receiver,
Who's going to be the guy in the slot. And
right now, I just would rather take shots on Rome.

(11:05):
I'd rather take shots on Luther Burden. Now, if it
becomes a situation where DJ Moore and Roman Dunes are
then neck and neck, Okay, then I'll be back in
on DJ Moore and I'll buy that dip there. But
as him as the quote unquote undisputed number one receiver
and a brand new offense, I have trouble trying to
get behind that be.

Speaker 1 (11:21):
Yeah, definitely. Well we're going to get to the topic
tonight in just second. But if you're enjoying this content,
best Ball content, ninth of June, and you need more
of it, myself and Andrew we are here every Monday,
four pm East, and we're going to help you dominate
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so much of a content that will be pumping out

(11:42):
on Fantasypros dot com every alternative week. We'll be performing
live drafts. Next week, we'll be back drafting and we'll
break down our picks in real time. And look, if
you hop in those drafts with us by watching us
live on Twitch, then we will happily review your roster
talk about what we might have done differently. You just
go come over at Twitch dot tv forward Slash Fantasy Pros,

(12:03):
and we will continue to try and give you the
best best ball advice on the internet. Okay, so let's
get into it, the best best ball strategies for twenty
twenty five. And we're better to start than Hero running Back.
That means one running back before round three and then
no more before round six. There's a reason we're staring
with it. Last year's underdog Best ball Mania winner was

(12:25):
a Hero running back build. They did not have Saquon Barkley,
they did not have Derrek Henry. And it didn't matter
why because we took Jamar Chase at one oh four
and then Jonathan Taylor at the two to h nine.
So even though Saquon Barkley and Derek Henry were these
incredible running backs for advance rate. Last year, Derek Henry
helped teams advance freight rate of like thirty percent, Saquon

(12:47):
Barkley forty eight percent. It didn't matter because Jonathan Taylor
went nuclear in the Best Ball playoffs and Jamar Chase
just went nuclear throughout the season. Here running back, it's
a much less extreme tactic than some of we're going
to get to, like zero running back robust running back,
which put you on very defined ends of the scales

(13:07):
where you have limited choices. But Andrew, we're seeing hero
running back, the usage of it decrease over years, Like
going back to Bestbomania. In twenty twenty one, eighty five
percent of teams we're hero running back teams. Last year
VAT numbers down of fifty percent. Do you think we'll
see it decrease in usage further or do you think

(13:28):
this is a good year for hero running back and
we'll see a bounce back.

Speaker 3 (13:31):
I think it's a great year for here running back.
I know that this particular strategy is the one that
I prefer to use when I first enter the draft room.
That's usually where I'm gravitating towards. Now, my strategy will
shift based on ADP values if certain players are falling
either at running back or wide receiver. But going in,
I'm thinking, all right, who's going to be my hero
running back? Who am I going to establish as my

(13:53):
guys going to get my points about arby one slot?
And then how am I going to piece me altogether
my RB two flex production down the line. So I
do think it's interesting that there was no Saquon, there
was no Derrick Henry. I think that the hero RB
arc where that you kind of describe with this Jonathan
Taylor team winning was it was almost less about the
fact that he was their hero RB more about he
just blew up in the playoffs.

Speaker 2 (14:15):
And that's really why.

Speaker 3 (14:16):
And it's I think the bigger takeaway is you still
have to find those guys that have those monster weeks
in the Fantasy playoffs. And but to the point of
drafting a running back in the first two rounds highly
this is where we typically see the highest scoring players
at the position.

Speaker 2 (14:32):
It's right at the beginning.

Speaker 3 (14:33):
It's not a leap of faith saying, all right, taking
this running back in round one, I hope he scores points.
He's gonna probably score points again. Health is always the
big concern do guys get supplanted, But it's much less
likely for the guys going this highly because if there
was concern about a running back losing their job, they'd
be going rounds three and four. There would be concern
about that running back based on their ADP. So I

(14:55):
still love the hero RB's approach, especially this year with
all the rookie running backs come in. So you have
your RB one that's getting you points while some of
these rookies get acclimated under new coaches and they start
scoring points and then if it's not Jonathan Taylor that
you have, you have Bucky Irving that ends up scoring
all those points in the fantasy playoffs. So kind of
finding that this year's version of the Bucky Irving, of

(15:17):
the Jonathan Taylor type of season, which can be either
a veteran that you draft really highly or a rookie.
I think this year's crop of running backs offer both,
where you have top guys at the top of the
draft you can pick from, and you obviously have a
lot of rookies that we're really excited about.

Speaker 1 (15:32):
Yeah, I think when you look for a hero running
back you have to be quite particular about the archetype
of the player of the year choosing as a hero
running back. There's no use choosing a guy if his
profile is quite fragile. So what that comes down to
is do they have the goal line work, do they
have receive and work, and do they have a high
amount of volume. If they can't do all three of

(15:53):
those things, then they have to hit big elsewhere. So
Sakwon Barkley didn't have receiving work last year, but in
mad because he ran so hot on volume. He ran
so hot on touchdowns with fifteen, which could have been
so much more, but still only two behind James Cookie
with most of any running back, and he advanced teams

(16:13):
three times to the above average advance rate number of
forty eight percent. So typically we're looking at sixteen percent
as a base rate, and he hit forty eight percent.
Derrick Henry didn't get any receiving work whatsoever, had like
a five percent target share or something miserable, but still
got to fight percent because he ran so pure. So
when we look at the first two rounds this year

(16:34):
trying to find our hero running backs, how many hero
running backs do you think that they can be out
of this selection? Andrew Saquon Barkley, b Jean Robinson, Jamia Gibbs,
cmc Ashton Genty, Derrick Henry, Bucky Irving, Devon o Chan,
Josh Jacobs, and Jonathan Taylor.

Speaker 3 (16:55):
So I'm not drivving to take one. So they're just
to be transparent not taking take on Barkley this year
just because of the touches that he's coming off historically
just has not paid off for the running back coming
off leading the NFL in touches. But again, structurally speaking,
he makes sense as a hero RB just based on
his role in the Eagles offense. But some of the
guys I have more concerns about where I'm not super

(17:18):
confident about the targets and receptions, especially in a full
PPR setting, Derek Henry, Jonathan Taylor, and Josh Jacobs to
an extent, So those guys I feel less confident about
as my strict hero RBS. Like I said, in full PPR,
I feel a little bit better about them in half PPR,
but I think I would probably still want to supplement
another running back that has pass catching chops alongside those

(17:39):
running backs. Again, not to say that I don't think
that they're necessarily all full complete fades, but the fact
that you should structure your team around them that they
don't have to be your hero RB. Because the thing
that we find with a lot of these running backs
to catch passes, a lot of it's game script dependent. Right,
Derek Henry's never going to stumble in a game where
he has just this random ten target game. Whereas a

(17:59):
player that I think could be you know, the worst
hero hero RB that you can get in round three
is Chase Brown. Like we've seen Chase Burn have spike
weeks in terms of targets where the Bengals are behind
Joe Burrow had to throw sixty times. That doesn't happen
with Ravens. That doesn't happen with the Colts, where those
running backs are just gonna stumble into those types of targets.
Whereas Chase Brown does have that type of spike week

(18:20):
potential when it comes to his usage as a receiver.
So when you're trying to, okay, how long can I
wait the draft, A hear are being kind of bend
the rules a little bit. Not going rounds one and two.
I think Chase Brown is kind of interesting, especially if
you start with wide receiver wide receiver Chase Brown in
round three can still be a Hero RB problem.

Speaker 1 (18:39):
Yeah, I'm very much fair with you. I think there's
certain guys, but I just don't want as a Hero
running back because I'm not as confident in them. Guys
like Just Jacobs, Jonathan Taylor, Bucky Irving. Even feels a
little bit fragile for me. But I do like the
Hero RB tactic. And it's easy to see why because
when you look back over the last few years, consistently,

(19:01):
it's been above average in an advance rate. We go
back to last year and if you market as sixteen
point seven percent is the base rate, last year, Hero
running Back teams advance at a rate of eighteen percent
with either five, six, or seven running backs in total.
So that was the best rate it hits. It's twenty
twenty one, and it might not sound a lot, but
when we're talking about sixteen point seven to eight percent,

(19:24):
these incremental increases are absolutely worth it. If you're enjoying
this kind of best ball data and you want to
read more about Hero running back, head over to the
draft kit on Fantasy Pros. The Hero running Back Guide
for twenty twenty five is in there right now. I
had a lot of fun writing that one. I'm sure
you're going to enjoy reading it. Let's move over at

(19:44):
zero RB. Twenty twenty three was a massive year for
zero RB. Both DraftKings and underdog main contest winners were
zero RB teams. It failed massively in twenty twenty four,
like it'd be hard to find strategy of that failed
worse than zero RB. Last year, we talk about advance

(20:05):
rate being sixteen point seven percent. That's because at the
twelve teams in your draft, everyone has, you know, divide
one hundred by twelve, you've got eight point three two
teams advanced from a pod sixteen point seven percent. It's
the advance rate that we're expecting now. Last year, zero
RB teams were advancing typically at a rate of around
eight percent. So it's fifty percent below average advance rate.

(20:29):
And it becomes so popular because the previous year people
winning millions of dollars with it, but andrew that popularity.
It went from nine percent in twenty twenty three to
twenty percent of people drafting last year, we're doing zero RB.
Is that the point where it starts losing its appeal?
For you? Do you want it to be more contrarian
like it used to be going back several years.

Speaker 3 (20:51):
So, first of all, this is a great breakdown by you,
Tom So, I really appreciate you lining this out all
the numbers. With how things have shaken out the last
couple of years, I think it's still a really valuable strategy.
I don't want to be a prisoner to the recent
recency bias of it suffering last year, and if anything,
I want to take advantage of it because last year
rookie running back class was terrible. We knew that the

(21:13):
rookie running back lass was terrible. The first running back
that got taken last year in the draft was Jonathan
Brooks coming off with do ourn acl injury. Like, that's
what we were working with, and who do we see
emerge from the crop. Most of the time in these
zero RB builds are these rookie running backs. And last
year was an outlier season where the rookie running back
class was really bad. The veteran running backs were really,

(21:34):
really good, and those guys were all boosted up in
ADP because of projected volume and they ended up smashing.
So I think that we get into trouble when we
copy and paste what happened last year and just do exactly.
If anything, what we should be doing is what's the
when we look at twenty twenty five, when we look
at the players available with landscape, you say, you know
what season looks closest to twenty twenty five?

Speaker 2 (21:56):
And it's not twenty twenty four. Like I know that
for sure.

Speaker 3 (21:59):
If anything, we got to go back to a rookie
running back class that was really really strong. If anything,
it's closer to twenty twenty three, where you had Bjeon
coming in, you had Gibbs coming in, two first round
rookie running backs, similar to this year where we at
two first round rookie running backs. So I think that
zero RB is very much back in. I will say, though,
I still prefer the hero RB build because I just

(22:19):
don't love any strategy that says, yeah, you can't have
Bjon Robinson this year, because that's what zero RB says.
It's say no, you can't have Bijon, And I look
at Bijon and I say, well, this guy could score
more points than anybody in fantasy and I can't have
access to him. So that's the only thing I have
against zero RB is I still like having access to
that one running back potentially in rounds one or two,

(22:41):
but punting it off after that point to round nine, eight, nine, ten,
I am more than fine with. And if you want
to be more aggressive, let's say you're picking at the
end of round one and you don't it's been a
really running back heavy draft and you don't feel comfortable
with any of those hero rbs left, then yeah, I
can get around zero RB, but against here RB, I
I still think that it's a little bit inferior.

Speaker 1 (23:03):
Yeah, it's definitely a tactic that I'm interested in if
there's an overcorrection, if people don't want to do it
because it failed so badly last year, and we have
seen a bit of a creestion. Like last year, twenty
four wide receivers went in the first thirty six picks
on underdog. This year that's down to twenty. There's more
running backs going in the first round this year than
we've seen since twenty twenty two. Three more running backs

(23:24):
go in the top fifty in general compared to last year.
So there are signs where it's like it could be
a good tactic. But I think you're right that last
year was too extreme and we kind of have to
rein it in and look for what is the draft
board given us, And last year of the draft board
was not giving us good zero RB teams. But people
were still too keen on the tactic because how it

(23:44):
had succeeded a year before to adjust to it. One
tactic which people were not using last year robust running back,
which means three running backs taken before round five. Like,
this is a tactic which you go back several years
ago and it was much more popular. This was something
which in kind of like ten fifteen years ago, people

(24:06):
truly believe that you need those top end running backs
and you should build your draft completely around running backs. Now,
over years, we've seen that dwindle in popularity, like to
a point where last year only two percent of people
drafting on Underdog drafted with a robustar B strategy, so
three running backs in the first five rounds. Go back

(24:27):
to twenty twenty one, that number was fifteen percent, So
it's really dwindled massively. And the crux of this was
that last year was actually the perfect year for it
because the running back setup was so good. There were
so many running backs available because everybody was going wide
receiver crazy on best ball platforms Like yes, in redrafted
was slightly different. We saw a lot of things different there,

(24:50):
but you could go out and you could draft three
really good running backs and you could put together a
good team and you just need to hit on your
late wide receivers. Last year on Drafters, a platform which
we've played on plenty Andrew, and we've been drafting it
on again soon enough. But the team who won over there,
they drafted Jamar Chase in round one at the one

(25:11):
oh seven, and then they went Saquon Barkley, Derreck Henry
and Josh Jacobs with their next three picks. They stopped
pretty much putting lots of resources into a running back position.
At that point, they had a six running back total build.
They waited till quite late in the drafts before taking more. So,
even though this is a tactic which has done pretty

(25:33):
poorly over the years, they turned it into I think
it was one million dollars over on on Drafters. Do
you think, though, as the NFL moves towards more of
a committee approach, that these running back heavy builds like
this saw We'll get to talk about some more in
a bit, but they're more fragile because they are fewer

(25:54):
and fewer guys who command the volume like Saquon Barkley
and Derek Henry do.

Speaker 3 (25:59):
Yeah, I think that you're spot on where the strategy
itself is definitely more fragile. I think that this specific
strategy is really more about the actual players you pick,
because when you lay it out who you got, the
guy got Derrick Henry or he or she got Derek Henry.
Round three like that sounds like this player fell. So
for me when I was looking at as I was

(26:19):
prepping for this show, kind of reviewing these strategies, robust
running back to me is you're in a wide receiver
thirsty room and nobody wants running backs, whether it's PPR,
whether it's half PPR, and people are just letting values fall.
And at that point you need to, Okay, I don't
necessarily love drafting this many running backs, but if you're
going to give Dereck Henry to me as my RB
or my second running back, I'm gonna get Josh Jaka

(26:42):
as my third running back when most teams have them
as their two. I think that's when you just have
to ignore the hit rates in the historical trends and
be like, well, I'm getting the best players doing it
this way. So I think that's kind of how I
would view robust running back. Wouldn't enter a draft room thinking,
all right, I got just draft three running backs. Kind
of like you said, that's how the mindset used to be.
Even when I'm thinking back to my old redraft days

(27:03):
ten plus years ago, I'm thinking, all right, two, stop
to your running backs, running back in the flex, and
we're good to go, and then we'll start drafting receivers.
Because the issue is when we talk about late round strategies,
got late round quarterback, late round tight end, late round
running back, late round wide receivers, probably the last one
of those strategies that is really bankable. It's the hardest
thing to hit on these late round wide receivers.

Speaker 1 (27:24):
Now you mean we break out we kind of every year.

Speaker 3 (27:27):
No, we could not have Pooka Nakoua every year to
as much as we like to, as much as we
you know, even as analysts like we like to overproject
and think, hey, I'm super confident in all these late
round receivers, most of them do not hit. You're you're
much better off taking chances at those other positions, which
is why it's so important that you at least get
the majority of your receivers in those middle rounds where

(27:48):
typically the running backs, the tight ends, even like the
quarterbacks to an extent, whenever they're in there those middle tiers,
those tend to be bad bets, which is why you
want to be drafting receivers in that range. So I
think with robust running back, it does come down to
the actual players that you're selecting and why it's so
important to have tiers. So it's like, if you can
get three running backs from your tier two, you just

(28:10):
got to take the value and then figure out wide
receiver piece meal together later on and hope that you
do hit on a potential breakout wide receiver. It's a
different bill. It'll make your team much different than those
others in the tournament or in the contest. But at
least that's the way I kind of saw it when
I was looking at robust running back and kind of
how to build those certain teams.

Speaker 2 (28:27):
Yeah.

Speaker 1 (28:28):
I think also one of the reasons why robostar B
worked so well last year, even though it wasn't used
to the extent it possibly should have been, was we've
been on a really nice streak of running back health
in the first couple of rounds, and whether that's because
running backs utilizing science or nutrition or anything like that

(28:49):
to prolong their careers and play better and avoid injuries
in the same way that they might not have used
to have been. What we're seeing is running backs at
the top end actually the average more games than wide
receivers over the last couple of years. Like I put
some data on this in my zero RB article that
is available as part of the draft kit. Again, I'm

(29:10):
gonna keep talking about a draft kit, and I'll talk
about it in more detail in a minute, But if
you get the health from the guys who actually do
touch the ball a lot, then it really can dictate
how fantasy goes across the board. Whereas you know, you
go back a few years and we had like a
glot of top end running back injuries at times like
CMC for example. We keep talking about advance rate because

(29:31):
it's really important within a Best ball strategy conversation. CMC's
advance rate last year was four percent. It was the
single lowest advance rate of anyone any player in Best
Ball Mania. Having him on your team meant that you,
you know, you were a core as likely to advance
as you would be if you just had drafted. You
know anybody who hit the base rate of sixteen point

(29:54):
seven percent. So yeah, it comes down to health a
lot of the time. You need the right profiles for it.
It'll be interesting to see what kind of robust style
be builds people can build at the minute. Like you
look and you could go something like Saquon Barkley, Bucky Irving,
Josh Jacobs if you were close to the close to
one oh one, one oh two. But it does mean

(30:16):
that your wide receiver one will be no higher than
wide receiver twenty if you had that running back room,
which feels like a big dip, but like I tend
to lean towards more wide receiver heavy starts and running
back heavy starts.

Speaker 3 (30:30):
I will say to Tom two, just just last thought
on robust running back. I think that this year is
interesting too, with the fact that I know robust running
back we're defining before round five. We do have a
lot of rookie running backs kind of in that round
five range. So you could see a scenario where after
round five you could grab a rookie running back, whether

(30:51):
it's Harvey Henderson, and they get brought up into a
pseudo robust running back build where you have one receiver
as well, and I think that's another factor and layer
in because those running backs, again maybe in the beginning
of the season, aren't necessarily great hits, but if they
can then be really strong finishers.

Speaker 2 (31:11):
I think that mightbe a unique way to build.

Speaker 3 (31:13):
Specifically compared to last year, where when we usually talk
about robust running back, it's hey, three veteran running backs
locked and loaded projection, feel good about the workloads. But
this year you could see potential robust running backs with
rookie running backs added as that third rusher, which maybe
makes more sense to them have two running back slots
already drafted because you're expecting potentially a slower start for

(31:33):
some of these first year players.

Speaker 1 (31:35):
I love that, and that opens up another conversation about
these strategies in general, Like, yes, I've put the definitions
in like one running back before round free, blah blah blah,
But there's no reason why you can't take these strategies
and try to break them, try to bend them into
slightly different And so if you truly believe that around

(31:55):
four running back, let's say James Cook or Bresee Hall
don't belong. Then that they have the heroic profile, they
can do all the things that we've talked about. Then
you can bend the strategy and say, okay, well, I'm
creating a late here or running back build here, and
I'm still only going to take one running back in
the first six rounds, but I'm going to wait till
round four to do it rather than doing it in

(32:17):
the first two rounds. So there's always ways which you
can try and bend the draft board to get an advantage,
make something different. And if you do that, for instance,
with the late here and running back, you're still avoiding
piling resources into running back dead zone or into this
area which is tricky by just taking the one running back.

(32:37):
So practicing with these drafts and getting in some of
the low stakes ones and just feeling your way, what
does it look like if I do this one is
probably one of the best things you can do at
this time of year. And I've talked about it a lot.
But if you are enjoying this best ball content and
you want more best ball content, head over at fantasypros
dot com forward slash best Ball. It is the twenty

(33:00):
twenty five Best Ball Draft Kit. It's a one stop
shop for ranking stacks, ADP trends, rookie breakdowns, roster construction, strategy.
All these details that we're going through tonight, they're all
part of the Zero RB Guide, the Hero RB Guide,
and it also includes exclusive strategy content. Fast Draft which
is a new best ball app where drafts take just

(33:21):
five minutes and you can win real money. Download Fast
Draft and use code Fantasy Pros when signed up to
get your first deposit matched up to fifty dollars. That's
up to ten drafts for free. Over there, we've got
a few more strategies. We are going to hit on
Starn with Elite Quarterback, which means one quarterback before round five. Now, obviously,
over the last few years, this change is drastically year

(33:43):
a year, but we've consistently seen Josh Allen, Jalen Hurt,
Slamar Jackson in this range and be good picks. But
last year C J. Stroud, Patrick Mahomes, Anthony Richardson, they
were the other guys who were sneaking into this elite
tier and Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson, they all

(34:04):
advanced at really positive rates. Patrick Mahomesville nine percent, Anthony
Richardson seven percent, CJ Stroud eight percent. So we could
say it's as simple as dual threats only before round five,
and then the counter argument about is okay, Well, Anthony
Richardson was up there? Was he just an outlier bad

(34:25):
because he was still averaging in forty three rushing yards
per game last year, which is an incredible number. But
do you think that they really have to be the
true elite players to get up there? Like you concerned
all for Jaden Daniels, who's being elevated in a similar
kind of way to c J. Stroud, even if he's
a better fantasy producer than we've ever seen from CJ.

Speaker 3 (34:46):
Stroud, I think that the dual threats make you make
it okay to take these guys inside the top five rounds.
I think that Daniels is different than Stroud because of
the rushing that he offers. I think that makes him
significantly a different bet to make entering year too, even
though you could see similarities between. They made some offensive
line upgrades. They added a wide receiver and free agency

(35:06):
and older veteran Deebo Samuel to compared to the Stefon
Diggs addition for the Texans last year. So I'm not saying, oh,
you got to draft jan Nails because he had a debo, Like,
that's not the argument of trying to make you gotta
draft Jayden Daniels because he could be the number one
score at the quarterback position based on what his skill
set can offer entering the second year of his season
with Cliff Kingsbury. So I think that if you have

(35:27):
the rushing, that puts you into this category when it
comes to at the Richardson though, and this is something
that I'm trying to learn from the mistake of being
too high on Richardson last year, and that was he
really looked and smelt like a late round quarterback where
we love the rushing, the passing is a work in progress.

Speaker 2 (35:45):
And who is that player this year? I mean Justin Fields?

Speaker 3 (35:47):
Right, if Justin Fields was steamed up into Round five,
I have him ranked, I think as a top eight quarterback.
I'm not taking a Round five That's just not happening
because I know that I've seen too much from him
as a passer where I can't bet on it taking
a monster leap. It's too inconsistent, and when you're talking
about stacking an underdog, the making sure that you have

(36:10):
guys that throw touchdown passes is so integral to really
take an advantage of that particular quarterback because you're not
only betting on him hitting, you're betting on some of
his pieces that you're drafting alongside him also hitting all
the way.

Speaker 1 (36:22):
Yeah, I think that's a really good point. And it's
also like it's avoiding fragility towards the top end because
perhaps quarterbacks just don't separate from the competition in the
same way that we see other players. You know, there's
other players that we can say this play is an outlier,
this player has a huge ceiling case, and we should
be taking him just in case it kind of works out,

(36:46):
somebody like Travis hunter in the fourth round. Like if
Travis Hunner only plays off in so all the years,
does he have a potential be a top five, top
six wide receiver potentially? But as you get to quarterbacks,
we've seen it, it's like you kind of need somebody
who consists the league can finish incredibly highly. Last year
I dove into like where do top end fantasy seasons

(37:08):
come from? And between twenty eighteen and twenty twenty four.
The start of twenty twenty four, there had been forty
eight quarterbacks who'd average five Russian attempts per game. Of
that forty eight, sixty four percent finish as a top
twelve quarterback in points per game, forty six percent finish
top twelve in total points scored. So it's like having

(37:28):
five rush attempts per game really makes such a massive difference.
If you're not doing that, I think you've got to
be averaging like two passing touchdowns and probably around two
hundred and forty passing yards per game to be able
to compete with these guys. And while that might not
sound a lot, I think it really is a huge
amount to consistently put up. This year, we've only got

(37:50):
Josh Allen, Jaden Daniels, Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts kind of
just around that border on round five, but Joe Burrow
is sitting down at fifty denying for overall. Do you
worry that Joe Burrow is getting overdrafted at the.

Speaker 3 (38:04):
Minute, Yes, I begrudgingly saying that because we know how
good he is as a pocket passer. But at the
same time, he's usually just not a good bet to
make on. And I feel like he's being drafted closer
to his ceiling where you don't have that extra rushing
juice to get him over the top. He has to

(38:25):
have elite passing touchdown efficiency. Now, if I'm ever going
to bet on a pocket passer to prove me wrong,
it will be Joe Burrow, and it becomes problem. But
the thing that's problematic with him is part of the
reason why he's going so high, specifically on Underdog, is
because of stacking. And it's you're waiting on well, I
drafted Gbar Chase, I gotta take Joe Burrow, and that's
just where he is. And I don't want the T.
Higgins draft to draft Joe Burrow. I don't want to

(38:47):
have a naked Chase. So that's the other thing, and
that that was an issue with Stroud last year, where
all three of his receivers were going so high, so
you were competing with two other teams to then draft
a quarterback to stack. So I think that with Burrow
is you just gotta I think that you gotta wait
and just hope that maybe the other Higgins or Chase
manager just doesn't take him, and that no one else

(39:09):
is going to take a naked Joe Burrow, so kind
of trying to and being okay with right. If I
don't get Burrow, then that's okay. I'll just have to
stack a different quarterback. So those are things that I'm
trying to think about, especially when it comes to some
of these elite pocket passers. And it's actually why when
it comes to like Alan versus Lamar at the top,
I almost feel like I prefer Josh Allen because I

(39:30):
can get all of these receivers so late, like they're
all so dirt cheap versus Andrews and or as these
Flowers is a little bit more expensive. Andrews obviously isn't
expensive as he was last year, but I just like
having access to any of those bills receivers because they're
all basically really cheap.

Speaker 1 (39:46):
Yeah, I definitely understand that point of view, and I
think it's saying when we stack these elite quarterbacks, we
have to be smart about it because we're investing in
them and if we're a pocket pass so you probably
do want to players, particularly on on draftings where you
get the three point bonus for three hundred yard passing
if that happens, you know, yes, Java Chase kind of

(40:07):
two hundred yard games. We've seen it as a Ravens fan.
I've seen it too many times. But when you're talking
about the dual thret guys, I think I'm kind of
okay with skinny stacking them more often saying that I'm
not overly investing too much there. It's kind of weighing
up how much draft capital you want to allocate to
the elite guys. But on the opposite end of the

(40:27):
scale from the elite guys is the argument for late
round QB. Now, this is a tactic defined by waiting
for your first QB till round twelve or later. So
you're missing out on the top end guys. You're missing
out on Lamar Jackson and all the guys we've just
talked about. You save draft capital, and it still leaves
you open to backdoor stacking, going late into the draft

(40:51):
and going okay, I need some stacks. We've talked previously
about how Mike Leoni of Established a Run had found
that having between six to nine players on a roster
in BBM increased do you expect to win rate by
thirty percent. So this year we have an interesting crop.
There's guys who are dual fretts like just In feel Sorry,

(41:14):
guys like Anthony Richardson, as guys like Daniel Jones. If
you want to make an argument for him, You've also
got guys like Gino Smith. You know, you could take
Rock Bauers in round two. You could then wait and
take you know, Beck Jacobe Meyers before decide and if
you want to stack with Gino in case something else
fell to you. Are you particularly interested in any particular

(41:36):
late round qbs this year, Andrew.

Speaker 3 (41:38):
I do like the Gino Smith call. I think that
he makes a lot of sense. He's really easy to stack.
He's a player that plays in a dome conditions, high
paced offense under Chip Kelly, so I think he makes
a lot of sense.

Speaker 2 (41:50):
He just goes super super late.

Speaker 3 (41:52):
And it's funny because I don't think that you're ever
going to find yourself a position where Gino Smith, if
you draft him, either an underdog or draftings or after,
is where you feel man that Geno Smith pick.

Speaker 2 (42:02):
Was really terrible.

Speaker 3 (42:04):
I just think that he's kind of a perfect edition
for whether you draft an elite quarterback or not. I
think that the third quarterback should be a staple, whether
you draft a quarterback in round four or a quarterback
in round eight with your first quarterback selection. I think
that quarterbacks, especially the third winder, are a bit underrated
because look, especially now where we know all the starting

(42:25):
cour or shouldn't say that, shouldn't say we all we
know all the starting quarterbacks. We know most of the
starting quarterbacks in the NFL, and I think we know
we feel more confident about that than some of these
backfields where we think, oh, maybe this guy, this rookie's
gonna have a role, or maybe he gets cut from
the team, or some of these receiver depth charts. So
when you look at Geno Smith versus the guys that
go in his range and just projecting their range of outcomes, Oh,

(42:49):
Gina Smith is going to be the starting quarterback with
Las Vegas rated for seventeen games and then versus it
or go ahead, you were saying.

Speaker 1 (42:55):
I was just gonna say this is why I have
seen people who are high on Tyler Show, because the
level of company has it is so weak that it's like, look,
if you can get that right the back of drafts,
does it make sense? I mean, you spin back to
last year, and out of the top eight quarterbacks in
advance rate, four of them were drafted at an ADP
of one hundred and twenty five or later. So it's
some of that we do see year to year. We

(43:17):
saw it with Gino Smith a few years back with
the Seahawks. Bo Nix last year was somebody who crushed
Sam Donald crushed wasn't drafted for most of the season.
Do you think there's any value in pulling up some
of these quarterbacks who aren't drafted consistently being willing to
take a zero on them for most of it and
hope that for the back end of the season they

(43:38):
could be producing.

Speaker 2 (43:40):
I think so.

Speaker 3 (43:41):
I think because especially in the underdog format or in
half PPR, quarterbacks score the most points. It's harder for
the skill position players to just put up the same
amount of point totals when they're only scoring half a
point for our reception. Again, you have the touchdown upside,
and then when you're adding in a layer of rushing.
With some of these quarterbacks and Daniel Jones here, I
would draft both Courts Colts quarterbacks now. I think that

(44:03):
because Dale Jones can give you some front loaded production,
we know he can use his legs. Richardson has backloaded
production if he ends up getting starts towards the end
of the season. So I think the third quarterback should
always be in place, especially now in June when we
know the least amount about some of the skilled players.
Between depth charts, which we're going to get more information
on as the summer progressive, we're going to learn more
about who's taking reps with the ones, which receiver, who's

(44:25):
winning the wide receiver battles versus the quarterbacks. We feel
a little bit more confident, especially at this time. You
know who is going to be QB one, Like we
can draft Daron Rodgers now because we know he's the
Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback and he's not expensive to take and
he's easy to stack with Steelers players. I'm not saying
that these guys are These guys aren't the league winners
per se, but like you said, the guys that are
going to help you get there, they're going to help

(44:47):
you advance. I think that's an underrated part of just drafting.
You know some of these later around quarterbacks in the
quarterback three.

Speaker 1 (44:53):
Yeah, QB scoring is so replaceable, but let's spin over
to a running back tactic again jewelunning back, which means
two running backs in your first two rounds. Now, we
kind of talked about a lot of running back theory
in Robust RB Hero RB, but we do need a
touch on this one because last year's DraftKings Millie Maker
winner who won it was one point five million dollars,

(45:16):
started with b Jan Robinson in round one, Derreck Henry
in round two, and then Devantey Adams as a wide
receiver one in round three. And Devanty Adams wasn't exactly
a smash hit last year. So it means if you're
going to do this, you kind of have to be
really confident in the wide receivers you're getting after round
two because you're behind the eight ball, particularly last year

(45:36):
when it was such a wide receiver heavy draft, you
are going to have to smash. So if you think
that this is viable with a good crop of running
backs that we've got this year, so you could do
like Bijan Buckie to start, You could do Jamir Gibbs,
Jonathan Taylor, you could do Ashton Jenny, Derek Henry. There
are a lot of possible permutations of this. Andrew do
you have any particular wide receivers that you'd be trying

(45:57):
to targeting round three through five to make up for
the lack of wide receiver through first couple of rounds.

Speaker 2 (46:05):
Yeah.

Speaker 3 (46:05):
So I have a couple guys I listened off here,
one of them being DeVante Adams, so including him yet
again in this list with the Los Angeles Rams, Garrett
Wilson on the Jets, Barvin Harrison Junior on the Cardinals,
the every Worthy for the Chiefs, James Williams for the Lions,
tet t roand McMillan for the Carolina Panthers. And then
I had a sneak in my guy. I know that
I think he's going Round six, but Jayala Wattell still

(46:26):
not give enough on the Dolphins wide receiver. So yeah,
I think that I do have some decent competence some
of these guys. Now, some of these players have. Again,
they're going in this round for a reason. They're not
all perfect or else they would be goings in rounds
one and two. But I see paths where these guys
can be really productive, whether they're taking a second year
leap or they're going to bounce back after a bad season.

(46:48):
And I think that. Yeah, this makes this dual running
back or I think I also call it the superhero
RBS strategy makes it viable.

Speaker 1 (46:57):
Yeah, I think if I'm playing on a full PPR site,
then there's certain players I need an over volume hugs
like I think guys like JSN become more interesting to me,
even a guy like Xavier Worthy, or I maybe be
less inclined to choose Travis Hunter if he's going to
end up as my wide receiver two on a roster
compared to if I've started a bit more wide receiver heavy.

(47:19):
So it's kind of just that ying and yang and
looking for balance, going Okay, Can I believe in Zay
Flowers as my wide receiver free or would I prefer
somebody who has a little bit more consistency and try
to work out what does my roster look like week
to week. I do think the duel RB is very
viable this year, but I probably wouldn't be taking a

(47:42):
third running back till about round eight or so round nine.
It's just kind of a justin going okay, Well, I've
drafted two running backs early. If I'm playing on eighteen
round underdog, I'm capping this roster at five running backs
in total. I think if you go at six, you
start in a waist like because you need the top
two guys to be playing virtually every single week apart

(48:02):
from her bye weeks, and then you're really looking then
for the rest of your running backs to potentially fill
the flex at points and be bye week cover. But
you have to be willing to just go to an
uncomfortably large amount of wide receivers or tie ends quarterbacks
to make up the fact that you didn't take them earlier.
Another strategy which we've seen have success on Underdog. It

(48:24):
won the very first Best ball Mania many moons ago. Now,
Justin Herzig established a run took home modest fifty thousand
dollars by current standards, which you know now when you're
talking millions of dollars, it seems crazy, but hyper fragile
running back means you're running back three before round ten,
and in an eighteen round draft you would stop at

(48:47):
four running backs total. That's what Justin did. The year
that he won. He did a valven Kamari scored six touchdowns,
which rather helped. But if you're on a twenty round platform,
you'd probably stop at five running backs. So again, take
three running backs before round ten, and then you're just
not adding much more resources to the position. The idea

(49:07):
is that you're leaning into the fragility. You're saying, my
running back selections are going to work out here, and
it allows you to pile more picks into wide receiver,
tight end, core back and make sure you've got the
stacks you want there. Andrew like, how difficult do you
find it to stop selecting running backs at a certain
point when you go, okay, well I need these two

(49:29):
to pay off. Well, but can can you find it
within yourself to stop clicking running backs? And do you
find yourself just drawn to those like round seventeen eighteen
dart for running backs just to see that running back
room notch up to a slightly more familiar level.

Speaker 3 (49:44):
Yeah, I want to take more shots at running backs, can't.
I can't bring myself to just stop because it's just
so easy for running backs to get opportunities, because it
just takes one injury away from Okay, now, this running
back common ung guy now is the guy in Shkyla's backfield.
Because Ben Jonson decided he woke up one day and
was like, no, what Deandros Swift I don't like you anymore.

Speaker 2 (50:04):
I'm gonna give this.

Speaker 3 (50:05):
I'm gonna give this seventh round rookie running back the
carries today and we're gonna see how that goes. So
I'm actually amazed, you know, looking back on this for
how many years ago this happened and how that fragility
ended up working for this particular draft.

Speaker 2 (50:19):
But I just I want to take shots on these
rookie running backs.

Speaker 3 (50:22):
I don't care where they were drafted, whether it's round six,
round seven. There's just so much talent in this class,
and I don't want others to be drafting those players.
I want to be drafting those players. So this one
for me, especially if we were playing in a full PPR,
or excuse me, I think that it'd be better in
a full PPR going the more fragile, where as in
half PPR. Man, if these running backs are scoring touchdowns

(50:45):
left and right, I want to have access to those
types of ceilings. So for me, it would probably if
I was gonna go hyper fragile, would have to be
in the full PPR where I feel better about taking
more wide receivers because wide receivers are just going to
naturally score more in a site that or it's one
full point for a reception, which is how all receivers
score all their points. I did have another question for you, Tom.

(51:06):
I'm not sure if you researched this at all specifically,
so I don't mean to put you on the spot.
But when you do hyper fragile, because you are making
a bet that you guys stay healthy, you're not handcuffing
those running back So I see ken Walker here in
the graphics. So if I was going hyper fragile running back,
I wouldn't draft ken Walker and Zach Sharbonnay, or would
I draft them together.

Speaker 1 (51:23):
I wouldn't draft them because you basically you're you're you
have such a slim path to it paying off. You know,
you're really looking for perfect outcomes. Nobody gets injured, nobody
gives you zeros consistently, that kind of thing, and obviously
every running back backfield is different. Maybe if you've got

(51:44):
Jamia Gibbs David Montgomery of a couple of years ago,
that would work out. But I personally wouldn't handcuff I
don't think I think that I'd say that more for
maybe even like Jewel Arby, maybe that would work out
that just having that extra running back where you get
up to five running backs rather than four would give
a little bit more scope for that. Okay, so let's

(52:08):
move on. We got two more to do and they
are both tight end strategies before we get out of here.
So punt tight end the worst position in fantasy football,
and punt tight end involves not taking a tight end
before round fifteen. We know the elite tight ends at
the top of draft boards. They give us far bigger
spike weeks on DraftKings for one hundred yard bonuses massive

(52:30):
tight ends, as is any two touchdown performances. Last week
we drafted on DraftKings and we looked at Trey McBride,
was the only good tight end on the team that
won last year. Had like thirty points on Week seventeen,
and that absolutely helped people. No end, Andrew, who are
your punt tight end options for this year?

Speaker 3 (52:51):
So my punt so one of them is the guy
graft here Hunter Henry. I think that he's severely being
slept out. I think he's a dark horse to lead
the Patriots to targets if Stefon Diggs doesn't come back
fully from this ACL injury. Kyle Williams as a rookie.
We already saw what all the receivers did on the
team last year. Most of them are coming back, not
many of them are really good. So if Drake May
takes this sophomore leap like me and many are projecting well,

(53:16):
then he's probably gonna bring his tight end and number
one red zone target along for the ride. So much
of the underdog scoring with half PPR is touchdown based.
If you're a tight end, you score a touchdown that
was a good play that week, like you're gonna hit
the lineup. So it's really more about touchdowns than anything else.
So if Henry has touchdown upside attached to Drake May,
I think that could work. It's the reason why I
think that Pat Friar Mooth I think is another interesting

(53:37):
punt tight end option. I think he's gonna play all
the snaps. Aaron Rodgers makes the offense feasible and good enough,
and we've seen enough where Fi Mut's been a solid
tight end throughout his NFL career. I don't think that
he is a league winner per se, but someone that
can fill in your lineup with some decent numbers and
has some red zone equity. I think that he's fined in.
Chicka Kong Quo is the last guy for me. I

(53:58):
just think that there's a lot of opportunity that's not
being considered in that Titans offense. Behind Calvin Ridley is
Tyler Lockett, a bunch of rookie receivers that were drafted
on Day three, Treylen Burt. I just I'm not impressed
by any of these guys. And Chicka Congo started to
show out at the end of last year under the
current coaching staff, so it's not a situation where a
new coaching staff comes in inherits. Chiica Kono wo ot no,

(54:20):
he's playing in a contract year. We know he can
make plays with the ball in his hands. And if
cam Moore hits in any way, shape or form as
a quarterback, elevator and I think Chiica Congole could have
a really productive season. So those are the tight ends
I like going much later on in some of these drafts.

Speaker 1 (54:34):
Yeah, So, Lestie, if you waited on underdog till after
round fifteen to take your first tight end, you advanced
a rate of twenty percent if you took three tight
ends in total. Go back to twenty twenty three and
the same build was seventeen percent. So again these are
numbers above the sixteen point seven percent one comfortably nineteen

(54:55):
point nine percent in twenty twenty two. Go back to
twenty twenty one, eighteen point four. Punt tight end has
consistently worked, and it's something which I don't do enough.
I think I think I like to talk myself into
some of a higher end ones because of that individual
spike week. And we know a lot of tournament winners
have benefited from those massive spike weeks. But maybe I'll

(55:16):
mix in more of them this year. Our last one
that we got to get to it is bully tight end,
which involves taking your tight end two before round seven.
So this one has consistently had poor results across the years.
The idea is that you lock in two or more
reliable tight ends, which allows you to bully a room
in the panicking over our own rooms. Nobody feels comfortable

(55:38):
where we see you with good two good tight ends
based out worrying. We see this a lot of time
in Dynasty drafts. People like to corner down. I'm going
to keep taking quarterbacks. It's super flex, but it rarely
works out for them even in Dynasty and especially here
in Best Ball. This year's candidate, it's brought Bauers, Train McBride,
George Kittle, and Sam laport It feels like quite a

(56:00):
strong group to me, but so did last year Andrew.
Last year we were talking of Travis Kelcey, Kyle Pitts,
Sam Laporte are all guys who are going in and
around this range. Over the last four years, this tactic
has never averaged positive advance rates. But there could be
something said for if you make the playoffs and if

(56:20):
you can sneak a team through, then you have a
different roster. Do you believe that argument or do you
just think that this has shown that it's not a
good way to play.

Speaker 3 (56:30):
I think that the opportunity cost is just too great
to Again, you only have one tight end slot that
you need to fill every single week, and then you're
hoping that another tight end gets into the flex at
some points, but tight ends score at the least amount
of points. Yeah, that's why that it's so much harder
to bet to make. And I get from the uniqueness
factor that you're going to be different and it comes
in the playoffs. But Tom, there's a lot of ways

(56:52):
to be unique when you're building these teams. So I
don't think that doing the double tight end thing is
the best way to do it. I think that you
can get more unique with certain types of stacking a
lot of times when again, and the argument like you
made was that weekly ceiling that you get with some
of these tight ends, like a brock Bower, Like, how
many titands can go out and catch ten balls, go
over one hundred yards to catch two touchdowns?

Speaker 2 (57:14):
The list is a handful of guys.

Speaker 3 (57:16):
Like, but at the same time, if you're betting on
that one week, okay, what if my tight end just
catches two touchdowns in a single week and catches five,
you know, four to fifteen catches two touchdowns, Like, that's
a weekly spike. Making those type of bets, I think,
is how I rather prefer to approach my second tight
end versus just drafting the next highest guy, because then
you got to consider, okay, well, now I have to
stack all these tight ends. What's that price going to

(57:38):
cost me? Now none of these guys have quarterbacks that are,
you know, at egregious prices, so it's a little bit different.
I would say that like going into battle in Week
seventeen with a Bowers George Kittle team, it sounds pretty
entice you can get so, yeah, if you can get there,
it sounds pretty cool, Like that's how I would do it,
just because Bowers is the guy who's going to rack

(57:58):
a bunch of receptions, whereas Kittle, we know, can just
rip off these massive weeks with efficiency. So maybe that's
the way I would spin it, but I think that
you're probably just better off just hey, if you're going
to take one elite tight end, take them, and then
just take some guy late, because again, the tight end
position just doesn't score that many points and the opportunity
costs for again, we look at the tight ends are
like this is amazing, but then you gotta look at, well,

(58:19):
what does the rest of the roster look like?

Speaker 1 (58:21):
Yeah, exactly. It's a difficult one and it's not one
which I'll ever do a lot of. I think, you know,
you could make an argument if you were on somewhere
like FFPC, which is Titan premium, that that tactic could
possibly have a highest ceiling there. But for me, it's
not one that I'm going to be looking to do
this year because Titan Landscape, it feels messy, and for
all the reasons we talked about punt tight end working,

(58:44):
I would rather take my shot on one elite tight
end and then mix in two or one punt tight
end at the back end. But those are your best
best ball strategies for twenty twenty five and someones which
perhaps are not the best ones out there. And Andrew,
we will be back next week and we'll move back
to drafting. We'll be right here on twitch dot tv

(59:05):
forward slash Fantasy Pros to give you our best ball
thoughts as we try to draft against each other. We'll
talk stacks, we'll talk sleepers, so much more, And of course,
if you need more best ball content, head over to
fantasypros dot com forward slash best Ball for the best
ball draft Kit. So much of a data and so
much of a content that we've talked about tonight is
within there, and it will really set you up for

(59:27):
a big summer of drafting. From myself and Andrew, truly
appreciate everybody hanging out tonight. Leave us are comment and
let us know which strategies are your favorites and which
ones you are staying away from. From myself, Andrew and
amazing producer sef We'll catch you again soon.

Speaker 3 (59:42):
Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football podcast.
If you love the show, the best free way to
support us is by leaving a positive review on Apple
Podcasts at Fantasypros dot com slash review or on Spotify.
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Best Ball Game Theories | Strategies To Help You DOMINATE In 2025 (Ep. 1589)

Episode Transcript

Hosts And Creators

Andrew Erickson

Joe Pisapia

Derek Brown

Thor Nystrom

Ryan Wormeli

Pat Fitzmaurice

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.css-14f5ked{margin:0;word-break:break-word;display:-webkit-box;-webkit-box-orient:vertical;box-orient:vertical;-webkit-line-clamp:2;overflow:hidden;}Best Ball Game Theories | Strategies To Help You DOMINATE In 2025 (Ep. 1589)