Best Ball Livestream: Biggest ADP Market Movers (Ep. 1598)

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
Yes, it's the Fantasy Bros. Best Ball Show again with myself,
Tom Strack and Andrew Erikson here to talk all things
best Ball. Despite the fact that there is no more
mini camps until we get to training camp, things are
going to die off a little bit. Maybe we'll see
some contract extensions, but on the whole things are going
to quiet and down a bit, which gives us this
perfect opportunity to look back at how ADP has risen

(00:22):
and fallen over the last month, who's on the rise,
who's on the fall, and what we think about those moves.
But we've also got just a few little bits of
news that we can get into before that. Because these
moves that we've seen, the bits of news, they have
the potential to cause some quite big moves in ADP.
So Andrew to kick things off, what were your thoughts

(00:43):
when you saw that the Rams and Karen Williams were
making progress on extension talks by some of the reports
that we've been talking about this as far back as January. Now,
obviously we spent a lot of time debating like Blake
corn Mudjoco Wes's Hunter, which one is the Rams running
back back up to own can Karen Williams'll carry enough
of the workload to be worthy of a top forty
pick or so. How did it make you feel when

(01:05):
you saw about Like, if Karen Williams gets a good contract,
is he going to change anything for you?

Speaker 2 (01:10):
I don't think it's going to change much for me.
We know that Sean McVay, if he has his way,
he loves Karen Williams, and I think he wants I
think that he's definitely pushing for Karen Williams to get
this contract extension. The argument that you could make for
those that are looking to be not as of an
exposure on it Karen Williams as well. If he signs
a contract, maybe they try to load less touches on

(01:33):
him so that he doesn't break down, because now they
have a long term investment in Karen Williams. He is
a paid player that they've invested in the long term,
versus well, he was a guy that we took in
the sixth round and he dramatically exceeded expectations. Let's just
give hi as many touches as he can handle. So
I think that's the argument you would make if you
were fading Kyle Williams I think that I'm settling more
on Williams as a small win but potentially big loss

(01:57):
type of player. Where could he end up being a
back end RB one because he scores a buch touchdowns? Yeah,
I think so, and he gets enough volume, he gets
two hundred fifty touches overall. Okay, I could see that,
and then I will be wrong about fading him in
that RB fifteen area. But if there is a scenario
where no druk Wis, Hunter and Lake Rum do get
more involved in the backfield, he doesn't score as many touchdowns.

(02:17):
We know he's not a big pass catcher. That's one
of the big things with Sean McVay. Kyle Wilms has
never really been that involved as a receiver, so without
that receptions to kind of bolster some of his production.
If he's not scoring these touchdowns, then okay, that's the
path where he is a real detriment to your lineup.
And that's kind of how I'm viewing his season potentially.
So I don't think it's going to really change where
I ranking him, whether he signs an extension or not.

(02:39):
I think, just looking at it on the surface, I
think this might boost his ADP because oh he signed
an extension. They love him. We know Sean pay love
or excuse me, Sean McVay loves Kyle Williams. So that's
kind of the way I see it.

Speaker 1 (02:52):
Yeah, I kind of see this one as Karen could
jump a few spots perhaps, but I don't think he's
going to jump massively. You look where he said and
ADP's pig thirty three overall. I think that you could
maybe see him nudge ahead of Marvin Harrison, maybe ahead
of DeVante Adams, Mike Evans, but I don't think you're
going to see a situation where he gets as high
as Chase Brown, who's next running back ahead of him.

(03:14):
Moving along with some of these news that we're going
to cover quite quickly, and Rashie Rice is going to
be a full go by training camp according to al reports,
But we'll circle back and talk about him later because
he is definitely rising up in ADP. Joe Mixon to
be ready at some point during training camp, according to reports,
has a foot and ankle issue that kept him out
of Mini camp. When you combine that with the Nick

(03:36):
Chubb signing, any kind of like doubts about Joe Mixon
a minute, any kind of room for optimism about Nick Chubb.

Speaker 2 (03:44):
I think that I feel similar to Joe Mixon, like
Kyle Williams. But although I like Kyron probably more than
Joe mix I didn't like the Nick Chubb signing for
Joe mix In because we know Nick Chobb if he
is healthy, at least healthier than it was last season,
and we know that he can pick up yards that
are for him. He has outstanding vision, and even though
he's probably lost of his explosiveness because of these injuries,

(04:05):
I do think that he's a veteran presence that can
get the yards that are blocked for him. I think
he can do that. So if Mixon just kind of
does what he usually does, is not super efficient, eats
up a lot of volume, it works in mix In
favor that the rest of his backfield isn't the highest
end of competition. I'm not a huge windy marks person.
This coaching staff does not like Damien Piers. It's pretty

(04:26):
clear that I just I don't know why he needs
to go to another team. I would love to see
him on another roster where he could really thrive. Doubts,
get on the phone, Baby, get Damian Piers to big deal,
let's go. So I think for me, Mixon just he's
in that dead zone running back area where again I
think if he beats me, I think it's only by
a little bit. But am I gonna get smashed into
the ground because well he can take John Mixon. I

(04:48):
don't think that's the case.

Speaker 1 (04:50):
Yeah, Joe Mixon just needs to run hard on receptions
and touchdowns at this point in his career to make
up for a lack of efficiency across the board and
behind the offensive line that the Tech has have that
looks potentially primed to be really problematic. It really is
a struggle for me to want to draft too much
Joe Mixon. But one guy who I definitely do want
to draft plenty of is Elite's Neighbors. He has a

(05:13):
toe injury, expected to be ready for camp. It doesn't
sound like there's too much worry about this one. But
it's always a little bit tricky investing a high pick
in a player who has a lingering issue, you know,
like we saw a couple of years ago with Cooper
Cup very different situation player at the opposite end of
his career. It's like when you're investing a first round
pick into a wide receiver. You want to be a

(05:35):
hit the ground running and Elite Neighbors is right on
the back end of round one with an ADP of
nine point one, that he started falling towards the second
round a little bit more. Do you think the pick
nine point one on Underdog is okay to take Elite
Neighbors or would you prefer to get him kind of
closer to the second round at this.

Speaker 2 (05:53):
Point, I think on Underdog, specific to the format where
it's half PPR and not full PPR, I think I
wouldn't much rat that prefer him going in round two
because you think about the way them leak Neighbors is
going to accumulate fantais points. It's volume. It is absolute
sheer volume. Because we don't know how efficient this giants
off it's going to be. I think that most of
us can probably confidently say that it's probably not going

(06:14):
to be that efficient. Whether it's Russell Wilson now Jackson
Dart is that wildcard player where he could come in,
step in and he ends up being a Jaden Daniels
or a CJ. Stroud type of impacting your one and
you seem leak neighbors absolutely cook. Same thing with Jamis Winston,
where those games from Jamis Winston starts, you're gonna feel
so like you're gonna have the most FOMO ever if

(06:35):
you don't have any even the lakue neighbors. So I
think from a best ball perspective, I wouldn't say that.
I don't think it's smart to fade neighbors in any capacity.
He's too talented of a player, but to be underweight
on the field agains from a league neighbors, especially if
he's going in the top nine, I'm okay with that.
In half PPR, I do like his price more on DraftKings,
where I think in the full PPR, he doesn't assarily
need to score a lot of touchdowns to pay that

(06:57):
off because we know he's going to see eight, nine,
ten perceptions potentially per game, but the ordage of touchdowns
might not be as high.

Speaker 1 (07:05):
Yeah, I just kind of think that when you look
back at last year, it feels like it's almost been
slept on the fact that this guy went out and
broke rookie wide receiver record for receptions, like it was
just it was insane. But because Bob Bauers had an
even better season. That's where all the focus goes. So
even with a toe injury, I'll still be drafting plenty
of elite neighbors. We have one more player we're going
to hit, and then we're going to move on to

(07:27):
the rises and followers across the board. But Christian Watson
posted a video of himself running routes he toys ACL
in week eighteen, so we are six months removed from
that and he's out there running routes. Obviously, the Twitter
doctors are all over this one, analyzing his cuts, analyzing
how fast he's going. But from a best ball perspective,

(07:49):
where we're looking quite long term, all the weeks are
at the back end where all the serious money is,
or even in deeper re draft leagues where you can
put Christian Watson on IR is he starting and becomes
some leave. It's interesting because I thought potentially Watson could
miss the whole season. He's barely being drafted on under
dug as an ADP of Turner of fifteen. But if

(08:10):
he's somebody who could come back week seventeen, do you
think it was a path back to Christian Watson being
that kind of explosive one week player that just blows
up the slate.

Speaker 2 (08:21):
The optimistic side of me and the big Christian Watson
side of me wants to say yes, but I don't.
I don't think so. We see guys, yes, they can
come back from these ACL injuries, but what do we
always say, it's the year after the year they come
back where they're actually productive. So the fact that he
could return to the field, it's not the same as, oh,
we're gonna get prime Christian Watson. Who guys, Christian Watson

(08:44):
is also the guy that's always hurt anyway, this was
after now he's coming back from an ACL injury. I
think that you can spend your eighteenth round or twentieth
round best ball pick on a lot of guys that
you could make the same argument, where this is the
guy that could potentially blow up the slate, who's also
not coming off a season, and who could also maybe
help your lineup throughout the seventeen weeks prior to Week

(09:05):
eighteen or week sixteen.

Speaker 1 (09:07):
So what you're saying is you'd rather draft Marcus Welders
Scandling than Christian Watton.

Speaker 2 (09:15):
Well, when you put it that way, now you're putting
me on this Okay, not MBS. I would need I
would need to scope out the other out well draft
him instead.

Speaker 1 (09:25):
Yes, yeah, there's definitely some fun guys in the back
end of that. And if you are into best Ball,
then you're in the right place because myself and Andrew
we will be here every Monday at four pm Eastern.
We're going to be alternating between best Ball live streams
one week and then other weeks like this one where
we took strategies, we talk rise and fallers, we talk
stack sleepers, and so much more. Those live drafts we're

(09:48):
going to be doing them on f FPC, Drafters, DraftKings, Underdog.
We are going to cover all of these platforms to
help set you up. All you've got to do is
tune in every Monday at four pm on Twitch, Twitch
dot Tv Forward Slash Fantasy Pros. Just like some of
the good people in the comments today, Van Rod, I
see you here, Jerry Nelson. Jerry appreciate you as well

(10:09):
as well as better as who just followed the Twitch channel.
So if you want to be smart like them, now
is the time to come over to Twitch and make
sure that you don't miss us each and every week.
So let's get into some rises and fall as Andrew,
because let's say we're going back over the course of
the last calendar month to look at some of the
players who've jumped in ADP. The biggest risers, they include JK. Dobbins,

(10:33):
who's up fifty five spots, Nick Chubb, who's up thirty
three spots. Of course, both those guys weren't signed a
month ago. Aaron Rodgers up thirty spots, which is a
little surprising because we kind of knew this was probably
going to happen with him signing with Pittsburgh. Miles Sanders
up twenty seven spots for gap between him and Giovante
Williams is closing, Dimie Brown up eighteen spots, Travis Eti

(10:55):
n up sixteen spots as it looks more and more
like he will be the Jaggs RB one at least
open the season. Jalen Wright for the Dolphins up sixteen spots,
Dante Fourton up fifteen spots for the Raiders, and then
just looking at some of the other players of note,
Jordan Mason up ten spots that might be entirely down
to us talking about him NonStop. Isaiah Pacheco up nine spots.

(11:18):
JJ McCarthy up eight spots as he gets healthier and
starts to look more and more like the Vikings locked
in starter Josh Downs up eight spots, Michael Pittman up
eight spots, and Rashie Rice up seven spots. Andrew, I'm
going to let this let you take the first one here.
Who do you want to talk about first?

Speaker 2 (11:37):
For me, I want to talk about Travis etn and
I think that you kind of bear the lead a
little bit where it looks like he's going to be
the Jaguars starting running back come day one. Now I'm
a big Beachell Tuban fan, but I do realize that
he is still a day three rookie running back that
still needs to earn his touches and opportunities with a
new coaching staff. And I think we just need to

(11:59):
be open to the idea that under a new coaching
staff at Leam Cohen coming in, that he could pick
any of these running backs. I think that he still
isn't potentially sure who he's going to lean on the
most as they go through and they've gone through the
UTA's now they're going to go through training camp to
see who if fits the system the best, and I
think right now at least ETN is in the driver's
seat to be the RB one. And why could you

(12:19):
never totally write off ETN was the fact that he
has that chemistry with Trevor Lawrence dating back to their
time spent in Clemson, so there's always the most important
player on the Jaguars. Trevor Lawrence is in this running
backs camp, and I think that means a lot because
running backs it's based on opportunity, So I think that
ETN is getting it could potentially get the opportunity here

(12:39):
in this backfield. I think that the market is starting
to realize that. I still think it's not enough though.
I think that it's still too old for ETM because
if he is the day one starter, he's going as
RB thirty six. Tom Etm was RB thirty six last year.
That's that's where he finished and he was terrible last year.
So if he could just be a little bit better
than last year, he's going to pay off his ADP.

Speaker 1 (13:00):
Yeah, it's a difficult one for me. I think your
point about Clemson is a really strong one and it's
really worth bringing up that Trevor Lawrence probably wants him
around but I kind of would push back on that
by saying, well, look at Lim Cohen when it looked
like he might have to work with a GM that
he didn't want to, He wasn't interested whatsoever, and then

(13:22):
it literally came down to what he wanted was enough
for him to get the job. So I think if
he doesn't see it in Travis etm, which we've got
no reason to believe because we haven't seen any indication
of that so far, then I think that Ettien might
be not long for this backfield. I think the patient
stuff is going to be really interesting. Like if Ettien

(13:43):
goes out there and doesn't look good, you go back
to last year and Tank Bigsby had a higher yards
to carry, a higher big run rate, a better duke rate,
and finished as the RB thirty three, ahead of Ettyn,
who you mentioned at RB thirty six, then I think
that speaking definitely earn that role. Twoton I think is

(14:05):
probably going to be somebody that we're really looking at
for the back end of a season, which, again, if
you're talking best ball tournament or if you're some in
a redraft league where you can stash players with big
enough bench spots, he'll be worth it. But I just
kind of look at three headed running back rooms and
so often it just becomes really difficult for me to
want to buy into them, because you're not just dealing

(14:27):
with a nice, clean cut sort of David Montgomery, Jimier Gibbs.
Where the roles can be assigned. It's like, if you've
got one guy who takes for two minute roles to
hurry up offense, then you've got one guy who mixes in,
and then you've got one guy gets for short yardage stuff.
You know, all these guys could go out and have
good games by NFL standards, but end up getting you

(14:48):
sort of six seven points, which just really can be
miserable and in a best ball format that might just
not be good enough to ever really hit the lineup.
So I'm a little hesitant on travis Etti, but I
do think this is probably about the cheapest we're going
to see him. I think that when training camp opens,
if it's all Travis Etien, then that might push him
rightly or wrongly up into a ten or fifteen spots.

(15:11):
It's but kind of like a ceiling to this range
where you'd be willing to take ten.

Speaker 2 (15:16):
A ceiling range where so basically, once you get to
a certain price, I'll stop clicking. Yeah, I think that
once he gets I think once the market Pegsham is okay,
he's locked and loaded to b ther one. I think
if you were to get up to this is a player,
I think it's kind of similar. Is DeAndre Swift if
he has like a DeAndre Swift esk rise to Okay,

(15:36):
he's locked and loaded to a better offensive environment, because
that's the bet on DeAndre Swift. Now, the competition is
obviously more difficult in Jacksonville in Chicago, but if they're
both RB onees and their backfields, then you can see
the upside cases for both players based on okay in
improved offensive infrastructure. We've seen them flash talent high end

(15:57):
upside at times, whether from a full season or in
a points per game or points per touch type of perspective.
So for Etn, again going back to how do we
you know parse through this backfield, who's gonna be the
pass catching back? I think it's gonna be Etn because
it's not gonna be bigby that guy doesn't catch passes
and bashall Tuton Again, he's a rookie running back and
What's the biggest thing with Rooki running backs I always

(16:18):
have to overcome is the pass protection. Going back to
going back to the trust factor. Eachen is gonna be
trusted by Trevor Lawrence to be the guy on third
down to block and catch passes out of the backfield.
So that's again going back to his path to being
on the field. The most I think would be Etn
and going back to Cohen too. What we saw in

(16:38):
Tampa Bay was a lot of the pony personnel where
he had two running backs on the field at the
same time, So we could see a lot of ETN
and take Bigsby or ETN and base Shall Tuton. I
don't think that we would see scenari unless Etn does
get traded, where it would be Bigsby and bashall Tuton
on the field at the same time. So I think
right now he's just at his price is too cheap.

Speaker 1 (16:57):
Yeah, I'll give you one. I think, like me the
point where I definitely wouldn't be interested whatsoever would be
kind of around that adp of ninety range DeAndre Swift
going it's seventy five. I mean, Deondred Swift's just too
highly priced. But ninety. I could see myself mixing in
some of him. Let's go over to your second player
before we get over to Mind. This is Diamie Brown,

(17:19):
who's up eighteen spots to one hundred and ninety first
overall on Underdog ADP, going quite a bit ahead of
his expert consensus rankings, which you can find fantasypros dot com.
There he's ranked two hundred and seventeenth. So, Andrew, what
is it that you wanted to talk about with Dianmie Brown?
Like what makes this? Is this a good buy an
opportunity or is this too much for Dianmie Brown.

Speaker 2 (17:41):
I think this is a pretty good opportunity for Diamie Brown.
And this is something that we don't always see with
the market, and as we'll talk about some of these
other players with Travis Hunter, you usually don't always see
the correlation. Like if you see one player start to
dip an ADP, you don't always see the corresponding player
that then should rise as a result. But we actually
are seeing this. So Travis Hunter has gone down just
a little bit with him potentially now playing more defense.

(18:03):
We'll get into it, but Dianie Brown, Okay, if Hunter
is playing more defensive snaps. Then Dimie Brown is now
the defunct wide receiver two or defacto wide receiver two
in this Jaguars offense. You know, he was hand picked
by Gladstone, the new GM coming in. Gladstone talked about
him from his time at North Carolina where he really
liked him as a prospect. Going back to my prospect

(18:25):
rankings of Dimi Brown, I really liked Dimy Brown too.
I thought he was a really fun player. I believe
that he was Sam Howell's go to guy at North Carolina.
You know, big play threat down the field. Vertical did
basically nothing for the Commanders in four seasons there until
the end of last year where he finally got an
opportunity and you know, he delivered a couple of big,
big weeks. So again, his sample size of production is very,

(18:48):
very small, but I will say that he does fit
fit the archetype of a fifth year wide receiver on
a new team. So that's something that has hit over
the last three seasons. Am I saying Dimi Brown is
going to be a wide receiver one this year? Now
what I'm saying is could he be Darnell Mooney? Okay,
Like I think that is more in the range of
outcomes if Hunter isn't taking on as much as a

(19:09):
wide receiver role. And I think worst case scenario with
Brown is, look, he's a vertical deep threat player. He'll
catch a couple of long touchdowns, He'll hit your lineup
in a couple spike weeks. I think that's worst case scenario.
So that's my play on Jacksonville. In terms of Diamie Brown,
I do like the Week seven or the playoff matchups Jets,
Broncos and Colts. I can tell you that the Jets
in Broncos number one cornerback is not going to be

(19:31):
on Diami Brown in those games. So I feel confident
you could have some big, big weeks with the number
one getting that perimeter shadow potential coverage from some of
those top corners. Yeah.

Speaker 1 (19:42):
I think it's one where if I've got Trevor Lawrence,
if I've drafted him already, and I've got one of
Bran Thomas Junior or Trevis sent then I don't mind
taking Diamie Brown and saying Donmi Brown isn't the price
because he's going to get on the field. If they
both end up getting on the field a lot and significantly,
then dimiy Brown is going to have a really difficult time.

(20:04):
I definitely have some paus with him because of some
of the stuff you talked about. I mean, like he'd
never been over to under receiving yards in his first
three seasons in the NFL. He had one year with
Jade and Daniels where his catch rate was seventy five percent,
which is really high. Like you know, there aren't many
wide receivers who put up good numbers and get a
catch rate that high. So I think it's possible that

(20:25):
we see regression there, particularly as he'll be in a
new situation with a quarterback who, I mean, let's just
be honest, Trevor Lawrence hasn't played to the level that
Jade Daniels has played too in what we've seen from
Daniels so far, so there are doubts for me. But
when it comes to best ball and we're talking about
players in the one ninety range, I don't have any

(20:46):
qualms about that whatsoever. Shout out to xt Pans who
just followed us over here on Twitch. He knows what's up.
Truly appreciate that. And let's move over to a couple
of my players. And we had a question in the
chat from Jerry Nelson Jerry before, what's everyone feeling on
Rashi Rice and Worthy's value. Well, Rashi Rice, He's now

(21:06):
the wide receiver twelve in Underdog ADP up to twenty
two point five overall. That's a seventh spot increase since
the start of like June thirty six. In Fantasy Pro ECR,
he was wide receiver five and a half point PPR
points per game across the first three weeks last year.
That's that has been absolutely drained to death at this point,

(21:26):
Like only Miligue Neighbors and Cooper Cup had higher target
shares than Rice's thirty three percent of those weeks. So
it kind of comes down to are you comfortable in
the second round of drafts drafting a player where we're
saying this all this can continue. Even though at the
point where Rashie Rice was doing this, Hollywood Brown wasn't playing.

(21:49):
Who's currently healthy Xavier Worvy was averaging a sixty percent
snapshare across those three games, never had jumped to seventy
two percent across the rec of the season after Rashi
Rice was injured, I Mahomes. So now Brashi Rice goes
ahead of Garrett Wilson and T Higgins the next wide
receives ahead of him, who I kind of think if
you're willing to draft Rice at this point, you probably

(22:11):
have to be willing to say that he can pay
off better than them. It's Lad Maconkie and AJ Brown.
Like when you see Rice in that mix, Fat Trio Andrew,
are you comfortable there?

Speaker 2 (22:22):
No, I'm not. That's too it's too much for me.
AJ Brown, Lab McConkey. I think that those guys were
those guys were in my side by top twelve entering
like very early into the offseason. The thing with right
Rice is definitely one of the most polarizing players to
rank here because I think that going back to one
of the simple principles while we play fantasy football is

(22:44):
upside wins championships and the upside if he is back
from this knee injury, what he did last year, and
even going to what he did during his rookie season.
I don't think that we talked about that enough. I
know that we talked about how yeah, you know, we're
maybe taking a smaller sample size of these three games,
which kind of like projecting that over the season. I
think to give Rice his credit is no. I mean

(23:05):
you have to go back to the second half of
his rookie year, where when you include that with what
he also did in twenty twenty four, his points per
game was right around that wide receiver sixteen in terms
of what his total production was. So he's been producing
at a high level for over half season essentially. My
biggest concern with him is just the knee injury, the

(23:27):
LCO injury that he tore, and then he also had
hamstring injury surgery done as well. So I know that
they're saying all the right things because this is what
they always do. They're always going to say the right things.
Everybody's ahead of schedule, everybody's full go. Was I say
a p checko full go last year too, because he
came back and he was terrible. So I get it's
a different injury, and every injury is different. We don't

(23:47):
get a chance to and I think that the people
that do injury analysis do a great job providing additional
context for us that are not medical people are working
in medical field and they do the best that they can.
But I know also they're not actually working physically on
Rashie Rice and his body and what he's doing. So
I think the only way he doesn't hit is if
he's just not one hundred percent back to his injury.
I'm not as concerned about you know Worthy and Marquise

(24:10):
Brown playing a big role because I don't think Travis
Kelsey's going to demand like a high percentage of underneath targets.
I think that Rice is that player. But the thing
that I just don't want to get carried away with
is and this is kind of a bigger factory and
talking about upsidewings championships. You know, where do we get
in trouble sometimes in fantasy is when we overvalue and
fall in love with a role for a certain player,

(24:31):
and then that role gets taken away or isn't the
role that we thought it was, and then that's how
we get into trouble overdrafting players. So I kind of
it makes it easier for me if he just keeps
going up and up and up, because then I can
just decide, right, it's too much for me. I do
almost feel bad now that I wasn't drafting more of
Rashie Rice like a month ago when he was much hit.
So in hindsight now I feel very dumb for not

(24:51):
just being more aggressive on him earlier because now I
think it is going But again I also get the price.
It's because of the if he is if his knee
is good, then he is going to pay it off.
But I'm just a little skeptical.

Speaker 1 (25:04):
One of the reasons I've got some skepticism is people
point to Xavier Worthy only really being good towards the
end of the season, where he kind of fell into
the closer to the line of scrimmage role that he
performed really well in, and people saying, well, he'll lose
that to Rashly right straight away. Maybe he will, But
I think Andy Reid is intelligent enough, like we praise
him as an offensive genius enough to say, if he

(25:28):
saw Xavier Worvy being excellent in that role, surely he'll
try to get him some work like that. So I
have questions about it. I do think the Chiefs on
the whole are a good best ball opportunity this year,
and I do like them. And it mainly comes down to,
you know, if you're playing with Patrick Mahomes, even if
Matt Naggi is the offensive coordinator, I want some exposure

(25:48):
to that. Sticking with players who have caught back situation
that could really make or break them. Let's go to
Josh Downs and Michael Pittman, and I'm cheating little bit here,
but I'm gonna lump the Colts wide receivers together and
we can potentially touch on the KB situation as well.
But Josh Downs up eight spots to eighty six, Michael

(26:08):
Pittman up seven and a half to ninety three. These
guys are back to back in Fantasy pros expert consensus
rankings right now. Josh Downs. Last year, only fifteen wide
receivers had a higher yards per outrun among those with
fifty plus catches. All of those players, well, there were
thirteen players in that fifteen who finished inside the top
twenty four wide receivers. Downs ranked fourth in the ESPN's

(26:31):
Open Score. He's really becoming somebody that you log onto
Twitter and they're just Josh Down days. There are days
where it just seems to be a stream of stats,
and his stats in credit to him are virtually identically
in games with and without Anthony Richardson, which kind of
for me, points towards him being the top dog, the
focal point of the offense. I think that He's really

(26:53):
strong there, and I think his reason that he's rising
is because he's been undervalued all along. Now, Michael Pittman,
I think is more linked to the Anthony Richardson situation.
With Richardson, who's full and twenty nine spots due of
your shoulder injury he's carrying. I think that Pittman is
a better bet if Daniel Jones is out there, because

(27:13):
Daniel Jones is more likely definitely not guaranteed, but more
likely to support multiple fantasy options. When it comes to
the passing game. Pittman averages five more PPR points in
games without Anthony Richardson over the last two years, and
almost two full targets per game. More So, I guess
I kind of have to just put it to this

(27:34):
Andrew like with them being quite close in price. I
think last year we were on opposite sides of this.
I was Josh Downs, you and Michael Pittman. But do
you want exposure to one of these guys ahead of
the other.

Speaker 2 (27:46):
I think I'm cool with getting access to both guys.
To be honest, I don't see that one is so
significantly better than the other. I understand the love for
Josh Downs, the younger player as sending player, but when
you look at he's he gets banged up quite a lot,
and he was already banged up this offseason as well.
And I know, as great as his numbers were last

(28:07):
year in terms of how efficient he was super high
targets rate per out run. Michael Pittman was playing through
a season ending back injury that he decided to play through.
He should have been like they were talking about putting
him on injured reserve and he said, now I'm gonna
keep playing for it. He already made his contract, so
I guess it kind of is, hey, you got paid
if you can play, you got to play through this.

(28:28):
So it definitely hurt his numbers, but the Colts already
paid him, so it's not like it matters nearly as much.
So I do think that they're both so cheap that
I don't need to sway either way. I think that
just kind of playing the ADP game is just the
best way to do it. You know, you have to
draft downs first, and then if you miss all on downs,
Pittman is right there waiting for you. So I will
say to Daniel Jones and Pittman have been training together

(28:49):
this offseason. Yeah, if he leans on, one of those guys,
could could be Pittman.

Speaker 1 (28:54):
So if we get some positive Anthony Richardson bos, Like,
if we get to count in Amphony Richardson healthy and
we start seeing a drop on these guys, is that
going to put you off draft to them or do
you just feel like there's going to be enough of
an opportunity for these guys with this quarterback muddle throughout
the yea.

Speaker 2 (29:12):
Richardson as a starter. I'm gonna it's so weird because
you have to change your whole perspective on the entire
Colts passing game with Richardson and his quarterback. So I
think I guess for me, I think that both these
players are just good wide receivers. So yeah, I think
just at their prices, whether it's Richardson, whether it's Daniel Jones,

(29:34):
I think that they're fine picks where they're going. Obviously,
you'd like to make whichever Colts pass runds up being better.
Is how these guys get unlocked for their ceilings. But
Michael Pittman has gone one hundred and fifty targets in
a season. There's only a handful of guys that've done that,
especially where he's going in drafts. You don't see a
bunch of guys with one hundred and fifty target seasons
on their resume and then justdowns again is a sending talent.
So I think that these guys are both really still

(29:55):
good at their prices.

Speaker 1 (29:57):
Yeah, I mean, I put a stown on Twitter. But
since two thousand and six, we've been only three quarterbacks
to have two hundred and fifty drop backs and complete
under fifty percent of the passes. JaMarcus Russell in two
thousand and nine, Tim Tebow in twenty eleven, and Anthony Richardson,
who had the lowest of any of them at forty
seven point seven percent. Well, JaMarcus Russell never started a
game after that season. Tim Tebow had two more starts

(30:18):
as a backup Anthony Richardson. I'd be surprised if we
see a huge amount of starts for him, particularly in Indie.
But yeah, it's not looking pre but some of it
is pretty It's a Fantasy Pro's Best Ball draft kit.
Head over at fantasypros dot com forward slash best Ball.
It is live. So much of the stuff that we

(30:39):
talk about here, Best Ball strategy rankings, stacks, ADP trends,
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and Andrew has been enjoy to contribute towards this offseason.
It also includes exclusive strategy content for Fast Draft, a
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and you can win real money. Download Fast Draft Code

(31:00):
Fantasy Pros when signed up to get your first deposit
matched up to fifty dollars. That's up to ten drafts
for three. Let's move over vote to some fallers in ADP.
The biggest followers include Anthony Richardson, as we've mentioned, down
twenty nine spots, Devin Neil down twenty eight spots, Jalen
Noel twenty seven, Luther for Burden twenty five. We do

(31:21):
tend to see a lot of rookies fall this time
of year. They get hyped up post draft, and then
as the camp's opening we get a little bit more. Well,
we're a little raw. They do start a trickle down.
Johnny Smith down eighteen spots, Jack Besh down eighteen spots,
cost Some Lovelin down thirteen, Kyle Pitts down twelve, Kleeb
Williams down nine, and also of note Joe Burrow down seven,

(31:43):
Camp Scadobow down seven, and Travis Hunter down six. Andrew,
which are your players do you want to talk about? First?

Speaker 2 (31:50):
Yeah, I wanted to hit on Devin Neil, the rookie
running back for the New Orleans Saints. They signed Cam Akers,
so I think that that's not a reindorsement for the
six pick from this year's draft. Again, we like this
rookie running back class a ton, but the fact that
they saw these guys during the OTAs and then they
immediately decided, Okay, let's bring in another veteran running back. Now,

(32:11):
maybe that's not necessarily on Neil. Maybe it's more about
Kendre Miller. Maybe it wasn't just the Dennis Allen thing that,
as you know, with his lack of production, although I
do feel like that did play a major role in
his lack of production. Regardless, it's now becoming a more
crowded backfield. Devin need doesn't have any type of draft capital.

(32:32):
I personally wasn't the highest on Neil as a prospect,
just based on the other running backs in this class.
I actually really liked the UDF guy they draft or
they signed as undrafted free agent Marcus Yarns from Delaware.
I actually thought that he was pretty exciting. So for me, yes,
Kamara is the guy in the backfield and we love
him because he catches passes. If he were to go down,
are we excited about Yes, I get the Saints and

(32:54):
running back let's go in an offense led by Tyler Shock.
I just don't think that that's the case because no
one is going to step into the Kamara role and
catch six, seven, eight receptions in a game, just because
that's so specific to Alvin Kamara's skill set. So I
think akers again, as a veteran guy, now you're it's
just tough to have the confidence to Okay, you know,

(33:14):
we don't even know who the SAME's running back two is,
and based on the lack of information, the concrete information,
I just want to stay away from this backfield except
for Kamara when he falls in a full PPR draft
like a DraftKings.

Speaker 1 (33:27):
Yeah. I just kind of look at Neil and all
the issues from pre draft to come back, like the
fact that he wasn't the most powerful back, and you
kind of worry, Okay, well, if you're not the most
powerful back in college, are you really going to be
able to become a more powerful back in the NFL.
I think that what he does well, like you know,
some of the highlights fantastic, He's agile, he's got wiggle,

(33:49):
But I'm just not sure if there's enough there that
I have any real faith. And I think that's potentially
the negatives that they're seeing in training camp that knock
him down. So I could understand down twenty seven spots
definitely feels like the right kind of range. Now he
is going at two hundred and fifteenth overall, So if
you believe in him, now's the time to get him.
Because he's barely being drafted in every single draft. I

(34:12):
think it's fair to mix in some cam Akers. Like
cam Akers has been very up and down himself over
the last few years. But on the whole, We've talked
about this over a few different shows. I don't really
want to draft too many players from the Saints, and
I think that's a good reason. One guy in a
different situation entirely is Jalen Know with the Texans. His

(34:33):
patht relevancy just seems to be only if Christian Kirk
gets At this point now, Christian Kirk hasn't been the
most healthy of guys. But it seems quite locked in
that Noel will be playing second fiddle to Kirk for
the time being. He's down twenty five point five spots
to one hundred and seventy six overall. Andrew like, are
you still buying at that point or do you think
now's the time to just be a bit more hesitant.

Speaker 2 (34:56):
I love buying the dip on Jalen Nole. I think
I had to use it really sharp buy right now. Yes,
I understand that the path to relevance isn't necessarily there
for week one, but we're not necessarily playing for week
one in the best ball format. Christian Kirk has not
been on the field for the last two week seventeens.
He hasn't been on the field the last two second
halves of the last two seasons. So Christian Kirk again.

(35:18):
He's on a brand new team. The Texans basically gave
up nothing to acquire him. They have no commitment really
to him in the long term. Yes, Noel makes sense
as Okay, we're gonna get Kirk for this year, he'll
be the veteran, and then we'll use Noel next year.
As Tank del comes back from his injury, But what
if Nol's just better than Christian Kirk. That's in the

(35:38):
range of outcomes, and I thought Nol was a fantastic prospect.
I still can't believe that the Texans were able to
get him when he fell all the way to round three,
and it would not shock me that he if he
were to outproduce and just win the job outright over
Christian Kirk at some point. Now, obviously an injury makes
it a lot easier for him to do that. But
I'm just so high on the talent and the fact

(35:59):
that c J. Stroud his quarterback and going back to
the playoff schedule for the Houston Texans, so Houston from
Week thirteen onward, they play all their games indoors except
for one game. So if Noel is in that starting role,
I think that he could be an I think he
potential a league winner at the wide receiver position down
the stretch because he doesn't have a redund His redundant

(36:22):
skill set is with Christian Kirk, whereas yeah, Jadan higgins
redundant skill set is with Nico Collins. So yes, it
makes sense why Higgins is going ahead because his path
relevance is clearer, especially from day one. But when you
have all of these three receivers with both rookies, I
think you could see Noel outproduced Jadan Higgins once he
finally gets to a starting role, so against a couple
ifs there. But that's all considered and factored in now

(36:44):
to his suppressed ADP.

Speaker 1 (36:46):
Yeah, I mean there's no doubt that. Like, he's a
fun player, Like when you watched him, there was all
the kind of stuff you'd like to see, like the
flash to movement, But there's definitely the downside for him
is what if he just became another guy like Malachi
Corley where a team doesn't really know how to use
him and they just end up using jet sweeps and

(37:07):
arounds things like that, and they can't really integrate him.
And on the one hand, it's like seeing design plays
for a player is always good because one a seever
is still involved. But if then he's unable to maximize
those opportunities, and if Christian Kirk stays healthy, then it
could be a very difficult season for him. At this
price one seventy six, I'm absolutely willing to bell on

(37:28):
it because the Texans are going to have to pass
the ball so often, because we've talked about with Joe Mixon,
the line looks so poor that it's going to be easier.
They just get the ball out very quickly, I think.
And Christian Kirk, for his part, in seven years in
the NFL, has only played two full seasons, so that
doesn't really seem to be too much that we necessarily
need to worry about. Moving over to two of the

(37:51):
players that I want to hit on. We're going to
go to the tight end position, and we're going to
start with John new Smith, who's down eighteen spots to
one hundred and fourteenth overall the Fantasy Bros. Expert of
consensus rankings. He's still pick one hundred over there. So
there's plenty of people contributing towards the rankings who still
believe in him. But he has been falling since the
trade talk started to crop a few weeks ago, when

(38:12):
all the rumors about him potentially going to Pittsburgh reuniting
with Arthur Smith. Well, people aren't necessarily overly high on that.
Fot Smith had career high of one hundred and eleven
targets last year first year, but he'd ever been over
seventeen in his career. He's been in the NFL for
eight years and he'd never hit over seventy targets in
a year. Also smashed his career high in yardage, went

(38:33):
from eight hundred and eighty four last year. The previous
high was five hundred and eighty two. So is my
low opportunity? Andrew, do you think that more as time
progresses more that the trade won't materialize and Johnny will
just sign a slightly improved deal and stay in Miami.

Speaker 2 (38:49):
I think that he probably will. I think that I
was reading something where the team is loading him out
as a trade potential player, but it's McDaniel that's really
pushing to keep him on the roster. And we know
that there's been rumors about McDaniel also being on the
hot seats. So how much power does he have remains
to be seen. I think my biggest concern with john

(39:11):
who and maybe this is the market kind of acknowledging
this as well, is he gonna have the same role
as last year the Dolphins offense. I'm not sure that
Mike m daniel looks back at last year and thinks, man,
we gotta just do this again. We just got to
run it back So that's the concern because based on
his role last year, he should not be going where
he's going. He would be an absolute smash, But there's

(39:33):
definitely some hesitance to buy back into was that real
last year? Is he really going to out target Tyreek
Hill and Jalen Waddle again? Is that really the most
likely outcome? I kind of lean on the last year
was the year to get John Who. This year, it's
not the year of John Who's I still like going
back to Waddle. I think Wattle's just too good of
a player to just be, oh yeah, they're just gonna

(39:55):
use John Smith over Jalen Wattle again. Maybe I'm wrong
and I'm just gonna be continued to draft Jalen Wattle
and be sad miserable for it. But I don't think
that it's going to be the same type of offense
with Johnny Smith being the focal point like it was
last year. He go was so dependent on they got
to get them all out to The offensive line had
tons of issues while was also kind of banged up too.
So that's kind of my thoughts on John Why.

Speaker 1 (40:17):
Yeah, well, John Who's going a minute? So pick one
hundred and fourteen he's behind Evan Ingram by seven spots.
Would you take him ahead of Evan.

Speaker 2 (40:25):
Ingram No, I'm all in on Evan Ingram, So I
think Evan Ingram could be this year Johnny or he's
the one that gets all like the layup underneath targets.
I do not.

Speaker 1 (40:34):
I would take him ahead of Evan Ingram, but just
ahead of Evan Ingram by like zero point four spots
in ADP is Mark Andrews. Could you take him ahead
of Mark Andrews? I think I have to, yes, Okay,
And then going the other way, the next tight end
in ADP is Tyler Warren at pick one hundred and
twenty four. Would you take Tyler Warren ahead of Johnny Smith? No?

Speaker 2 (40:57):
I would take Johnny still.

Speaker 1 (40:59):
Yeah, that's kind of where I land. And then after
that David and Jok, who's a pick one hundred and
twenty eight. But the guy just behind him is Colston Loveland,
who is down thirteen spots to one hundred and twenty
nine overall. Look, Colson Loveland got absolute elite draft capital
with one ten overall. Truly that kind of draft capital
ranger we look for him. The Superstars paired with an

(41:20):
offensive coordinator in Ben Johnson, who's made most at Sam
Laporter for the last couple of years, can win on blocks,
really strong in the receiving game. So why is he dropping. Well,
it's a shoulder injury that kept his participation in Mini
caamp to a minimal amount, and injured rookies tend to
set off big warning lights, as well as the fact

(41:40):
that we've talked about that rookies just tend to drop
a little bit this time of year. Are you kind
of put in Colston Loveland on one of those lists
where it's like, I don't really want to draft him
now because I've seen this play out with injured rookies before,
Like go back and look at Roman Wilson last year. Now,
I'm not comparing for two on a town level, but
if you're not out there then it could be increasingly
difficult to get up to speed on it.

Speaker 2 (42:03):
I think that you should be waiting to draft Coast
and Lovelan because they're just going to continue to drop
when he's not ready for training camp. When he gets
placed on the puff, although it's not the same as
the he has to miss games puff, it's just called
the same thing. So he's been dealing with the shoulder
injury since the Combine. I remember when we went, he
was at the podium with his arm in his sling,
and it was something that he's recovering from the college

(42:24):
football season. So I don't know when we'll see Coaston Lovelin,
but the Bears were very much aware of him having
this injury and entering the season with this shoulder thing.
So I don't think that it's something that's going to
be detrimental long term. But his AAPS is going to
continue to dip, So just wait until it continues to
go down and down, because I don't think it's ever
going to rebound to where it was when some of
these tournaments opened where we're super excited. It's not going

(42:45):
to rebound. So just take it when it's at the
lowest point because that's when you can capture that upside
without really much of the risk, because, like you said,
elite draft capital, super young player, and if he is healthy,
I think that he could do a lot of great things.
And Ben Johnson's off, it's like Samuel Porta fashion.

Speaker 1 (43:01):
Like some of it's been kind of like bubbling around
my head for a few days now. Is we've had
two years in a row where a rookie tight end
was undervalued and absolutely smashed Sam Laporte and then brought Bowers.
Do you think that there's a world where Colston Loveland
or even Tyler Warren, if most likely Daniel Jones is
caught back for the majority of the season, could be

(43:24):
that kind of difference maker. Maybe not quite as high
as like tight end one overall, but like a top
three tight end.

Speaker 2 (43:30):
I don't want to say it's impossible because you said
it's been done the last two seasons, right where we're like, oh,
we don't know, Like and I wasn't high enough on
Boers last year. Credit to the analysts that were really
high on him, especially as a late round tight end,
and it worked out for him to trade Devonte and
bang bang like the guy was smashing Sam Laporta. I
thought that a porter bet was actually easier to see
because it seemed like his pathway just being the tight

(43:52):
end one on the line without a lot of other
established I think at the time it might have been
Josh Reynolds, or it was Jamison but.

Speaker 3 (43:59):
He was in.

Speaker 2 (44:01):
Suspension, yeah, right, And then I think it was Josh Reynolds.
Was like the other receiver, so it was so clear
that he was going to be the number two target.
Now these situations are a little different in terms of,
you know, where do they stack up in terms of
that we just talked about liking the Colts receivers. I mean,
if it's so different because Warren obviously plays tight end
and they don't have another Titan of consequence there, so

(44:22):
he should be able to play the most. I think
if you're just based on like who's going to play
the most, I mean, Warren's going to be out there
a lot. So if he really is as advertised, then
there should be a path for him to be fantasy relevant,
especially if he becomes Hey, all I need to do
is catch a jump off pass from Daniel Jones or
Anthony Richardson and I can deliver a big spike play.

Speaker 1 (44:45):
I think, like if I was going to make an
argument for Loveland, it involved Okay, well, DJ Moore, the
reports him and Ben Johnson got into it in cam
the we don't know what Roman Dunze is. Luther burdens
All smiths in time and has missed much more time,
and Ben Johnson has been quite scared about him in
the press, so potentially there's just an idea that maybe

(45:06):
these rookie tight ends are going to end up being undervalued.
But let's move over to our last segment, and it
is market correction picks. We both have got two players
who we think that the market team correct on that
we think they will come around to at some point.
Andrew your two players, and they are very much linked
down to Thornton Junior and Jack Besh. Thornan's up sorry,

(45:28):
fifteen spots to two hundred, where beck is now down
thirteen to one hundred and thirty eighth. Overall, what do
you think the correction is going to be?

Speaker 2 (45:36):
Yeah, So what's happened is thorn was basically reported taking
first team reps at Raiders OTAs and that kind of
boosted his ADP significant because now it seems like, oh,
he's projected to be a starter on this offense. That's great.
Whereas Jack Besh is taking snaps with the second team.
He's behind Jacoby Myers on the roster, so his path

(45:59):
to target isn't necessarily as green or as great as
Thoron's is. But I'm not trying to overthink with some
of these rookie receivers. I really especially in this range.
I think it is still more about talent. I think
wide receivers, it's still about betting on who is the
most talented player, And if you ask the Raiders who
they think is probably more talented, it's probably the guy

(46:19):
that took fifty picks ahead of the other guy they drafted.
I think that Thornton was a fine pick as a
Day three option where he's a bet on a size
speed specimen. I know that Deebro I believe it was
Deebro talked about, Hey, he could be dk Metcalf and
this offense with Pete Carroll. I'm like, I'm all for it.
I think it could happen. Maybe. But at the same time,
Thornton had a nine percent target share last year. This

(46:40):
guy has never vacuum up targets on how he had
thirty five targets last year. He's coming from Tennessee offense
that we know can be really hard to project to
the pros because of how they operate. The Jalen Heights
of the world haven't really translated super well to the
NFL level as speed receivers, So I think for me,
I just can't I want to buy the hype on

(47:01):
on Thorntonis. So I think that if you're stacking him
with Raiders players, that's fine. But if I can get
the more talented player at a cheaper cost, because oh
well he's been running with the twos in June, and
then I'll just take that second round pick. I thought
that Besh was a fine prospect. I think that he
showed out especially early on in his college career when
he was at LSU with all those really talented LSU players.

(47:22):
And the thing that also got reported was Besh is
super versatile, whereas he can play inside and outside where
a thorn. They said, hell, yeah, he's playing X and
that's it. He's not doing anything else except being out
on the outside as a size speed player. So I
just think that we're looking for things to gravit gravitate
towards with some of these rookies. Again, he's one of
the few rookie risers, and I just think that he

(47:45):
should be looking good during OTA's as a size speed
free with not a lot of actual production on his
college profile. We don't see a lot of times where
a guy does basically nothing in college. Oh, because the
NFL produces an elite level. I just don't think that's
the case.

Speaker 1 (47:59):
Yeah, I think for this stility Maas, because I think
this is an offense which largely is going to focus
so much on Brought Bowers, Ash and Gent and then
you're going to see probably a healthy amount of Jacoby Meyers.
Like when I saw this, my immediate fault was if
everybody's worrying about Dantafon and everyone's worrying about Jack Besh,

(48:20):
that just makes Jacoby Meyers a better buy for me.
If the distance between Jacoby and then the next Raiders
player in ADP is going to open up and open
up in a minute, we're talking about sort of sixty
five seventy spots, then I just have more confidence in Myers,
and I'll continue to just take those early stacks on

(48:41):
Bowers Myers or gens Myers and then add Gino to
it later on because Gino is still going undervalued. So
I think we can mix in a few different ways.
But I don't disagree with what you're saying. I think
that the Besch reaction is probably going a little too far.
We'll spin over at mine and I've got two players
before we get out of here. And if you do,
you have any fantasy questions. Do drop him in the

(49:02):
chat because we will always try and answer as many
as possible over here on Twitch. And I've got Travis
Hunter and Cleb Williams. I'll start with Hunter, who I
know we've talked about a little bit, but I think
we're overthinking things with Travis Hunner. He's got an ADP
of forty seven, ECR of fifty six, and yes there
are mixed messages from the Jags. I'm just not overly
worried about him having a lesser role because I think

(49:24):
he'll still be out there on the most important plays.
What matters is when he has been out there in college,
when he's been playing this two way role. Two point
five yards per out run, two point six two yards
per team attempt, and the team attempt one is the
stuff that kind of really stands out to me. That's
a really strong number. I still think that we're going
to see a rise in price around Travis Hunter, and

(49:46):
that's why I'm buying him at the minute, because I
think when we get to training camp, we've seen how
thirsty people are for all of this stuff to do
around Travis Hunter, how desperate they are for any little
information nugget that comes out, and I think when we
get to try in camp, we could definitely see just
highlight video off to highlight video. And if Travis Hunt
is going to go up in price, then I'd rather

(50:07):
be buying. Now. Do you think that's a fair way
to approach it.

Speaker 2 (50:10):
Andrew, I guess I'm not as convinced that his price
is going to go back up during training camp because
you again talking about highlights. What if they're him making tackles,
getting it, getting interceptions, playing defense. The thing with Hunter
for me is I think you got to figure out
a way to try to get him at the best price.
I'm very interested to see where he ends up ranking

(50:31):
in some of these ESPN, Yahoo Redraft leagues. I know
this is best fall, but I just think that where
he's going to be ranked as fascinating because we understand
the upside case for Travis Hunter. It's immense, but the
downside cases also very immense and very scary. The floor
could totally botom up because he may not be playing
on offense like that's a possibile ability in terms of
his range backups. I do I think that's going to happen.

(50:52):
The most likely outcome probably not. But the suggestions from
the end of OTA's say, hey, we were playing him
a lot on offense because he's more natural a defense.
So what are they going to doing during training camp?
I mean, I'm praying that they play him a ton
of defense and his just ADP tanks and that way
it can feel better. Just take takes the random shots
on Travis Hunter and then what do you know, they

(51:15):
have a bunch of injuries at receiver. My guy Diami
Brown goes down. They have to lay Travis Hunter a
hundred percent at wide receiver, and then I will be
all over buying. So I kind of want to be
on the opposite side of the market. If the market's
bullish on Hunter, I kind of want to go in
the other direction. Or if the market gets afraid, I
think that's a good time to buy.

Speaker 1 (51:32):
Makes a lets of sense. I think, like, because we
are getting around to redraft season, it is really interesting
to look at where some of these players go because
the gulf between best ball and redraft it gets bigger
every year. It used to be we could just apply
a lot of best ball ADP straight across, but now
we continue to see running backs pushed up some players
who are on risk, you know, who are too risky.

(51:54):
We don't see going high and redraft. I mean like
NFL's fantasy app last year, the San Francisco forty nine
has had a sixth round ADP. So when it comes
to home leagues like these things like crazy things happen.
But talking about crazy, I believe that there is a
crazy opportunity still to buy a quarterback in Club Williams,
who could be a legitimate true upside play this year

(52:18):
as a real post type sleeper. His ADP's dropped to
one hundred and nineth. Overall, the ECR is still ahead
at one hundred and two. And yes, you point to
Coston Loveland injury, the Loother Burden injury and say, okay,
some of these new weapons aren't going to be out
there straight away. But the thing for me, it's the
offensive line reinforcements of Ozzie Trapilio, who was drafted, free

(52:39):
agent pickups of Joe Tooney and Jonah Jackson, and then
Ben Johnson, Like I'm just going to read this from
the Lions Wikipedia page about Ben Johnson. During the twenty
twenty four season, Johnson cover the league's top ranked offense
with thirty three point two points per game, set multiple records,
include most forty point games without any turnovers. Five of

(53:00):
them achieved the highest points per game in franchise history.
The Lions had six games scoring at least forty points,
became the first team in the NFL history to produce
four different players with one thousand scrimmage yards. Like, it's
just wild what he achieved with the Lions, who weren't
a good offense going back a few years. And while
I'm not saying that there's a mon Ras Saint Brown

(53:22):
or Sam Laporter in this offense or definitely not Jimia
Gibbs or David Montgomery, we've only kind of got a
look at how good Jackson Smith and Jig but was
last year when he escaped Shane Waldron. And now Kaleb Williams,
this player that a year ago, people will lose him
their mind over escape Shane Waldron, and there doesn't seem

(53:42):
to be that much appetite for drafting him, Like andrewm
missing someing.

Speaker 2 (53:46):
I think that this is a really sharp point that
you brought up. Buying a dip on Caleb Williams, I
agree with you tenfold. I think that the reason he's
falling is reflective of the pieces around him. Where you're
talking about well Love, one's going down, well Burn going down.
I don't want to draft Djam Moore because Ben Johnson
doesn't like him. I'm on the fence about Roll madoonsay.
So you're seeing all of these guys not be highly drafted,

(54:10):
therefore their quarterback struggles as a result. But like you
said at the top, if they had done none of
the additions, they didn't draft Colson love It, they didn't
draft Luther Burden, he still would have been a winner
in the offseason because of all the offensive line upgrades,
because that was the biggest issue last year. Wasn't the
pass catchers that was a man. They had their issues,
but the offensive line was the biggest issue. So I
think Caleb Williams again a great late round quarterback. I

(54:32):
love Drake may He's one of my favorite late round quarterbacks.
I still have a ranked behind Caleb Williams because I
recognize that Williams also can run a decent amount. I
believe he rushed for zero touchdowns last year, and that
was something he did a lot at the college level
rushing touchdowns. He had a lot of those. So we
see spiked weeks from not necessarily the elite mobile quarterbacks,
but the Mahomes types of players where they get five

(54:53):
or six rushing touchdowns and that really kind of puts
up their fantasy point totals at the end of the
season and helps them get more spike weeks. It's a
highly competitive NFC North Division. All those teams have improved
or trying to get better, and I think the Bears
are going to be in it, so I agree. I
think Cali Williams is a really good pick in redraft
and bestball going outside, like you said, the top one hundred,

(55:13):
and it's really easy to stack him now with all
his following pieces.

Speaker 1 (55:17):
Yeah. Absolutely, And next week we will be back in
the live draft streets. If you want to draft with us,
make sure you were over here on Fantasy Pros Twitch
with us where we will be working out which competition
to draft in is Twitch dot TV, Forward Slash Fantasy Pros,
myself Andrew Back. Of course, I appreciate everyone on Twitch
who hung out with us tonight. We see ot xpanch

(55:38):
Van Rod, Jerry Nelson, Jerry and everyone else in the chat.
You guys have been awesome. If you need more best
ball content, head over fantasypros dot com forward slash best
Ball for the entire Best Ball draft kit, which will
get you set up to crush this year. We'll be
back next week. Appreciate you guys, catch you around.

Speaker 3 (55:55):
Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football podcast.
If you love the show, the best freeway to support
us is by leaving a positive review on Apple podcasts
at fantasypros dot com slash review, or on Spotify.

Speaker 1 (56:08):
Follow us on x

Speaker 3 (56:09):
Instagram and TikTok at Fantasy Pros, and subscribe to our
YouTube channel at YouTube dot com slash Fantasypros

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.css-14f5ked{margin:0;word-break:break-word;display:-webkit-box;-webkit-box-orient:vertical;box-orient:vertical;-webkit-line-clamp:2;overflow:hidden;}Best Ball Livestream: Biggest ADP Market Movers (Ep. 1598)