December 13, 2025 • 29 mins
Join Joe Pisapia, Andrew Erickson and Chris Welsh for their best NFL prop bets in Week 15!
Timestamps: (May be off due to ads)
Intro - 0:00:00
Terry McLaurin Over 60.5 Receiving Yards - 0:02:53
Drake Maye Over 230.5 Passing Yards - 0:04:55
Rashee Rice 7+ Receptions - 0:06:35
Travis Etienne Over 72.5 Rushing Yards - 0:08:32
Hard Rock Bet - 0:10:03
Tyler Warren 5+ Receptions - 0:11:36
Kenneth Walker III Over 57.5 Rushing Yards - 0:14:00
BettingPros Prop Bet Cheat Sheet - 0:15:40
Isaiah Likely 4+ Receptions - 0:16:18
Juwan Johnson Over 3.5 Receptions - 0:17:55
Ricky Pearsall Over 30.5 Receiving Yards - 0:19:22
Kyle Monangai Over 12.5 Carries - 0:21:42
TD Calls - 0:23:46
Outro - 0:28:51
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Welcome in everybody to betting pros. It's time to place
your bets. It is me Joey p Joe Pi Zapia
and this is BP NFL. It's week fifteen. It's time
to look at to the props with the Welsh and
the Andrew Erickson. They've got five props each lined up
for you. We've got some touchdown calls. That contest has
gotten way too close. I don't like it at all.
And of course maybe we'll touch on a little bit.
(00:22):
What was all last night? Thursday Night football? The Buccaneers, Welsh,
we the bleeding cannot be stopped. It's orange blood everywhere.
The Buccaneers just keep losing games and Kirk Cousins, Kirk
Cousins keeps carving him up on an annual basis. What
is happening to the Bucks?
Speaker 2 (00:36):
I mean, how about stop a tight end?
Speaker 3 (00:39):
Well, we thought was the most overrated tight end ever
and then he just puts up the third best tight
end performance I think since the year I was born.
It was wild to watch Kyle Pitts live up to
all the expectations.
Speaker 2 (00:52):
And I think what's.
Speaker 3 (00:53):
More brutal about it is this was the full completion
of this team. You know, what was the interview before.
They're like, Baker, how do you feel that you now
have all your pieces and everybody's healthy and everyone's there,
And He's like, I feel like losing, you know, like.
Speaker 2 (01:04):
That's what it essentially happened.
Speaker 3 (01:07):
It was pretty actually shocking, to be honest with you,
for them to kind of drop it and not be
able to put all that together. But it wasn't you know,
it wasn't just on Baker. The offense, even though Baker
seems way more stoic and confused at the offensive line
point when any type of pressure is coming in the
defense was just Cake.
Speaker 2 (01:24):
It was. It was bad. It was depressing if you
were a Bucks fan. I'm not so I'm not depressed,
but it was rough.
Speaker 1 (01:30):
Andrew, we talk a lot about the Best Bets Show.
If you miss it, you can go back and watch
about some of these games that are very heavy favorites
this week, right, A lot of big giant underdogs, a
lot of one sided potential games. How does that affect
as you're you know, starting to work on analyzing props
because you know, one side of games sometimes can be
really difficult to kind of plug in the stuff that
you like, because you just don't know our team's going
(01:51):
to shut things down in the third and fourth quarter
if they're up by a lot, or things going to
go sideways, and some of those games that we never
saw coming.
Speaker 4 (01:57):
Yeah, it's always tough to handicap that and to consider that.
But again, sometimes it's just better to look at how
many points does this team imply to score. They're gonna
score a lot of points. Chances are that's good for
those offensive players. You bet the overs on those offensive players.
You bet the unders on the players that are getting
blown out. So again, you can always get beat by
garbage time. You can always get beat by a back
door cover here and there. But ten those things tend
(02:19):
to regress over time and usually aren't the best bets
to make, unlike the ones that we're going to talk
about here today.
Speaker 1 (02:26):
All Right, you gotta get better than last week. Two
Welsh one in four ericson two and three ericson. You're
just under five hundred Welsh still over five hundred four
of the year and a touchdown contest. Oh my god,
Welsh at twelve erics and I tied at thirteen. I
didn't get any last week. I gotta get a bunch
this week.
Speaker 2 (02:41):
I hit my almost four to one.
Speaker 3 (02:43):
So if we were doing ROW, I'd love to have
seen this as an ROI thing this next year, because
that was a close to four to one tight end call.
But that was about the only good thing I had
last week.
Speaker 1 (02:51):
So next year we'll have that technology. All right, Welsh,
why don't you kick us off here with the first
of our props for week fifteen. Obviously, the first one
up here is for the New York Giants and Washington
Commander's contest, one that could have a surprisingly high total.
So let's talk about Terry mclaurin's output in that game.
Speaker 3 (03:08):
So if you listened to any of the shows that
Ericson and I have done this week, Ericson and I
do quite a few shows together. We're a team, and
we would have given you a preview, specifically on the
Extra Point podcast, which is on our discord over on
Fantasy Pros. You would have got a little bit of
a tease of the few of the things that we
really really liked. And I had talked about this one
and I made it my first one of the week.
It is Terry McLaurin. I'm all in on Terry mcluurin.
(03:29):
This week, we're going with the receiving yards sixty point five,
fourteen targets. Those fourteen targets they were not last week.
Those were the Jayden Daniels targets and then he gets
hurt in the Mariota those are the targets. As Terry
mclauin return back to game action with Marcus Mariota. Marcus
Mariota targeting fourteen times. He got seven for ninety six
(03:51):
in that big game against the Denver Broncos. Phenomenal start,
even when he was just getting his legs fresh under him.
Now you've got Mariota as the starter of this week,
You've got a great matchup. Giants giving up the in
top ten in passing yards allowed overall on the season.
They defensively grade out according to PFF twenty eight of
thirty two against wide receivers. I think it's a prime
(04:13):
matchup where Mariota is throwing the ball a bunch more.
Terry McLaurin is his target. As Ericson says, anything but
Deebo Samuel should be your fantasy output and in your
prop output, I think that equates to Terry McLaurin Terry
McLaurin is also the big target, you know, the big
play target guy. This is something with a really bad
defensive matchup, or at least on their side bad defensively.
(04:34):
Terry McLaurin could get eighty percent of this on one catch,
and we know he's going to get targeted by Marcus Mariota.
Run games also a little banged up. We'll see with
the Chris Rodriguez stuff, but either way, and you can
run against the Giants. That's probably like the biggest negative
you would have in this one. But I think that's
going to set up play action and I think that's
going to set up Terry McLaurin to kind of eat
in this one. So sixty point five receiving yards give
(04:54):
me the over all.
Speaker 1 (04:56):
Right, Andrew Erickson, looks like your first prop of the
week has a little bit of Joey Pam Lewins because
this is one of my things for the Parlays show.
Let's talk about Drake may and his passing yard total
in this huge game where the divisions on the line
with the Buffalo Bills.
Speaker 4 (05:09):
Well, I loved this so much that I third on
the Prop show because I think that it deserves for
everybody to be part of this, even if it's not
part of your parlay. This should be a single player
prop bet that you make Drake May over two hundred
thirty and a half passing yards. It really is just
a number that you look at and think, this guy
leads the NFL passing yards and this is what his
passing yards prop is set at. He's thrown for two
(05:31):
hundred and forty passing yards ten times this season. That's
tied for the most of any quarterback this year. He's
on a streak of six consecutive games that leads two
hundred and forty passing yards, third longest active streak in
the NFL this season. He's already thrown for two hundred
and seventy three yards against the Bills this season back
in Week five, and at home. He's hit this number
in all but one home game six out of seven,
(05:52):
and in three or four of the game to the
Patriots as underdogs this season. So, I mean, usually some
of these props you come on here, it's like these
kind of vomit players with these really low props. They're like, oh, like,
I think you can squeeze right over it. But this
one to me is just like, oh, I can bet
on a great player in a great game to hit
a dramatically low number. So yeah, this one for me
(06:14):
is a layup easy, especially with the Bills that actually
put one of their Christian Benford was on the injury
report added this week. He's probably their best defensive back.
And if he doesn't go or he's less than one
hundred percent, you're just gonna see Drake may shred this
Bill secondary. So I give it you over it.
Speaker 1 (06:27):
Yeah, it's a low number. I don't get it, like
weather be damned again. People try to tell me last
week about how everything was gonna be under because of
the weather. How'd that work out? How'd that work out?
All right, let's go to Welsh's second selection here, and
it's got to do with Rushi Rice now the the
Patrick Mahomes Kansas City Chiefs right now or in their
feelings and rightfully so, I mean they're a six win
team on the outside of the bubble looking in another
(06:49):
must win game. And I'm getting tired of saying of
Welsh on the must win game every single week for
the Kansay Chiefs. So how can Rushie Rice's prop market
influence the Chiefs. That may be a positive way and
maybe our wallets as well.
Speaker 3 (07:01):
Yeah, I mean the Chiefs are definitely, you know, teetering
down right now. I wouldn't quite think that they're a
team that, you know, win that pressure is put on
and when it's important that they're going to just buckle
and just pack it in, They're going to go as
hard as possible, and that means they need to be
more aggressive. I don't even know if that necessarily pushes
to this exact prop, but I think they got to
get the ball in the air more. But what we
(07:22):
did see last week when that must win, big pressure
situation was drops. We saw a ton of drops, and
we need these guys to pick this back up this week.
I'm pretty heavy across multiple props on receptions and the
reception guy. When we look across all the wide receivers
in this game, it is Rashi Rice. We're going to
go to Rashi Rice plus seven catches or over six
(07:43):
and a half receptions and it's plus money this week.
Rice has hit this in two of his last three games.
Found this really interesting over on PFF Rice. Against zone
heavy defenses, Rice is targeted at the third highest rate
among wide receivers in the end in zone coverage. The
Chargers play the fourth highest rate of zone coverage in
(08:04):
the NFL. So and what I think is going to
be a past heavy situation, Rashee Rice should see a
ton of receptions. Projections also like this. Most projections have
him at the seven plus markers. So you're getting plus
money on seven receptions for Rashi Rice. I know it's
a weird situation with the Chiefs didn't hit it last week,
had the drops. We're going to bounce back from that.
(08:26):
Mahomes is going to target him a bunch and we're
gonna get seven receptions plus money Rashi Rice.
Speaker 1 (08:30):
All right, plus money on Rushie Rice. Next one, we're
talking about a running back here in one of the
many potential blowout games. We've got the Jacksonville Jaguars and
a beat up spot where the Jets are playing a
third string quarterback. Gross So Travis ATM let's talk about
his prop total. It's seventy two and a half rushing
yards Andrew it seems like a game where you're gonna
have a lead if you are the Jags, and you're
(08:50):
gonna be running out some clock late.
Speaker 4 (08:52):
That's the way I hope it plays out because I'm
taking the over on Travis Eaton and his rushing yards
at seventy two and a half rushing yards. That actually
hit this in four of his last six games played.
He's kind of been on a low key heater. Usually
Travis Eten kind of falls off in the second half
of season. Not really been the case this year where
they've been really leaning on him, and he's been part
of the reason why the Jaguars have been on this
hot streak over the last four to six weeks. So
(09:14):
the Jets defensively ever since they traded Quentin Williams. I'm
saying this on a lot of shows, but just bunts
against the run the New York Jets, So I like
attacking their defense. You've just seen some running backs recently
face them and just have absolute monster games. Eight Chan
last week, he didn't play the full game, and he
had a monster game in the first half against the
New York Jets. Nine running backs in the last seven
(09:35):
games have hit at least sixty two rushing yards against
the Jets. Seven hit sixty five or more. And like
I said, Etn has been going over the number pretty consistently,
and I do think they're going to continue to lean
on him instead of bay Shell two, who had two
fumbles last week. And they even talked about the coaches
this week about Etn Hey. When he gets going, he
is our workhorse. He can really do a lot of damage.
So I like Etn here to go over at home,
(09:56):
big total positive game script against Brady Quick Brady Cook. Yeah,
give me the jag your RB all right.
Speaker 1 (10:03):
Before we get to the next prop on our list,
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All right, let's get to the next prop on the
list for the boys here. Well, it's tough to know
what we're gonna get from the Indianapolis Colts now that
Daniel Jones is out for the year. So how are
(11:47):
we going to take a look at Tyler Warren in
week fifteen?
Speaker 3 (11:52):
Yeah, this is the second of my series of plus
money receptions that we're going with this week. And I
talked about this a lot on all of the show,
And you know, it's a risky endeavor because you have
no idea what you're getting in with With Philip Rivers
hasn't played in five years, he is familiar with the offense.
Are they gonna just lean on four hundred and twenty
(12:12):
two carries from Jonathan Taylor?
Speaker 2 (12:13):
You don't know. But if Philip.
Speaker 3 (12:15):
Rivers is going to be in that game, there is
going to be some passing going on. And I don't
think it's going to be big volume passing, and that's
where I'm gonna lean on Tyler Warren. I think Tyler
Warren will be his safety net, so on Warren himself.
Warren has hit this six times this year five or
more receptions, including three of his last five rivers. When
we look at him last we saw him, he was
a slight lean to throwing to tight ends. Before his retirement,
(12:38):
he was a little bit above average on his target
rate to tight ends versus the league average.
Speaker 2 (12:43):
So that's a positive in general. Then if you go
and look.
Speaker 3 (12:47):
At the Seahawks, the Seahawks defense does a lot of things. Well,
what it doesn't do is cover tight ends. They have
a defensive grade of thirty one out of thirty two
against tight ends so far this year.
Speaker 2 (12:56):
And going in to this is a.
Speaker 3 (12:59):
Stat I saw in God, I should have saved the
person who put this out. This is going into last
week's matchup, but essentially was saying that the Seahawks, ravaging
almost seven targets per game around seven the most receptions
around just run seven receptions and allowing the third most
receiving yards of tight ends. So tight ends are a
(13:19):
susceptible piece for the Seattle Seahawks, and that's going to
be the safety net for this offense. Plus on top
of it. You know, this isn't necessarily this is more
to something we'll talk about later, but I think Tyler
WARN's gonna be used in a lot of spots. But
I think Philip Rivers is going to be looking for
safety net stuff when they're trying to move the ball,
when the boxes are stacked on Jonathan Taylor first down runs,
(13:40):
which would probably happen, you know, every single play, then
they're going to be forced into throwing and it's going
to be short line stuff. And I think that's where
Tyler Warren is going to help a lot. Here, So
five receptions from plus one point thirty and that's a
Philip Rivers esque number because we're terrified of him, I
get it. I'm jumping on on a plus number five
receptions for Tyler.
Speaker 1 (14:00):
All Right, Andrew Rickson, we're already discussed Travis ATM and
what that game might look like in garbage time, running
out the clock. What about the Seattle Seahawks also potentially
in that mode in week fifteen.
Speaker 4 (14:11):
Yeah, I think that Seattle is gonna destroy the Golts.
I mean, would he have been surprised if Daniel Jones
went up to Seattle with this team and got destroyed
by the Seattle Seahawks. Like, No, So now that I
still have this forty four year old quarterback coming in,
I just I'm just not optimistic about this Colts offense.
So I like backing the blowout type of game strip
(14:32):
with the Seattle Seahawks, and that leads me to Kenneth
Walker over fifty seven and a half rushing yards. The
Seahawks have been the run heaviest team this season, calling
run plays nearly fifty percent of their plays. Ken Walker
has been much better at home than he's been on
the road. He's sixty plus rushing yards in three of
his last four home games. The last four running decks
to face the Indianapolis Colts have given up sixty four
(14:53):
rushing yards or have had sixty four or more rushing yards.
Now there is a chance that the Colts do get
defensive tackled to forest buck back from injury preserve, but
he's also missed a lot of time he was dealing
with a neck nerve injury, So that's always kind of
concerning about how effective he is going to be dealing
with the loss of strength with so much time miss.
So I'm just buying into the Seahawks laying the hammer
(15:15):
on Indianapolis Colts. I mean, Seattle has showed up big
in these spots at home as heavy home favorites of
touchdowns are more than three to zero against the spread.
They're also number one in the NFL in margin of
victory seventeen points. So if they're killing this team, I
think Kennith Walker. Yes, maybe he's not even in the
game in the fourth quarter, but I think he's getting
get enough work and see enough explosive plays where he
can get to at least sixty rushing yards and take
(15:37):
the over on ken Walker.
Speaker 1 (15:40):
All right, make sure you take a look at the
propa at Chichiet every single week because that's going to
give you all these props, the best lines, the projections too,
So sink your sportsbooks are free. Download the Fantasy pros
app and the Betting pros app. As you make your
run to glory in fantasy, make your run to glory
in the betting world too. There's only a couple of
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(16:01):
out for it's a perfect time. Start looking a little
bit more towards the betting things, and the betting prop
cheat sheet is the tool that you all need right
now again, passing, rushing, receiving. All the stack categories are
there in the prop bet cheat sheet. Go to Betting
pros dot com slash props, or just download the app
today and start betting smarter, not harder. Next up here, Welsh,
we know the Cincinnati Bengals do not farewell against tight ends,
(16:22):
so let's talk a little about Isaiah Likely and what
he's likely to do in week fifteen.
Speaker 3 (16:27):
This is the final of the series. This is our
third book in the plus reception series that we're going
to be running, and I am all about Isaiah Likely
over Mark Andrews Likely.
Speaker 1 (16:36):
A trilogy, Welsh.
Speaker 3 (16:37):
I gotta see yep this and hopefully this trilogy is
going to end better than many other trilogies. Isaiah Likely
receptions four plus He's also plus money around plus one
thirty is where you're seeing it. Bengals are the worst
against tight ends. We talked about Tyler Warren going up
against the Seahawks. There's a dicey situations. Zhawks aren't good,
but the Bengals are the worst. They grade thirty two
(16:58):
to thirty two according to PFF. On average, they're giving
up ten targets to tight ends, over seven receptions and.
Speaker 2 (17:04):
Over ninety receiving yards.
Speaker 3 (17:07):
So receiving yards might be a plus that you can
play on this, but I like the receptions of this
big plus money here trying to go out big towards
the end of the year. Likely has been the top
tight end option for the Ravens over the last couple
of weeks, with twelve targets over the last two games,
and he has hit this reception yard prop in both
of those games. Plus it would have been even more
had those touchdowns not been ruled out of his favor
(17:29):
or the one that just plopped out. I like Likely
in this situation. He did this against the Bengals. He
hit this prop against the Bengals. I think he is
the big playmaker option here. His receiving yard prop is
also again low, It's relatively low. It's like in the thirties,
but for four receptions when he's been hitting this against
the Bengals team that is cheeks against tight ends. I'm
(17:51):
all about Isaiah Likely on the receptions.
Speaker 1 (17:53):
All right, more likely stuff later in the show too.
Andrew ericson, let's do another tight end conversation here, Jue
on Johnson. The numbers three and a half receptions for
the Saints tight end, we're going over or under undertaker.
Speaker 4 (18:05):
We are going over. But I do have to make
one point about Welsh's cheeks reference. You know who was
on the injury report with a glute injury, Mark Andrews.
Speaker 1 (18:14):
Who Mark Andrews right.
Speaker 4 (18:15):
The other Ravens tight eds. So it's all coming first
full circle with buns, cheeks and glutes that we need.
Speaker 1 (18:23):
There is Jake, but Jake but nice, well done, well
done Welsh, well Kaseean Boody too. We can give Booty
little parlay. It feels like a parlay somewhere in there.
I don't know how we got to figure it out.
Speaker 4 (18:32):
I am going over with Juwan Johnson. This one just
kind of stood out to me because I thought there
was a lot of value on the number here, over
three and a half receptions. He's had at least four
catches in every single game he's played since Week seven
except for one.
Speaker 1 (18:45):
Last week.
Speaker 4 (18:45):
He even got to four receptions despite the Saints kind
of dialing back the passing attack because of the weather
that was being played in Tampa Bay. In the first
matchup against Carolina, Johnson had four catches on four targets
for ninety two yards and a touchdown. So his recepsions
prop has really been more around that four and a
half number. It's down to three and a half just
because I think that last week we didn't see a
(19:06):
ton of passing volonging from the Saints. I don't expect
that necessarily carry over in dome conditions here at home
for the New Orleans Saints. So I would take the
over on Juwan Johnson three and a half receptions. He's
been hitting this at a pretty high rate.
Speaker 1 (19:18):
All right, We've got one more prop to go for everybody,
and then the touchdown calls will be upon us. So Welsh,
let's finish strong here with your forty nine. Or is
Ricky Pierce all he still goes there? Does he still
go to San Francisco?
Speaker 2 (19:30):
You wouldn't know it. This is an all vibes play.
Speaker 3 (19:34):
So if you're looking for all the great data that's
going to tell you why this is a lock and
a smash. Sorry, this is me and ericson, Me and
Erickson are all vibes about this the forty nine ers.
Speaker 2 (19:46):
I mean, since Ricky Pearsall has.
Speaker 3 (19:47):
Come back, you wouldn't know that he's been back. He's
been an absolute ghost in that offense. He has not
been used whatsoever. Forty nine has been trying to get
their feet under them. One of the big changes here
is going into the bye week, and I think if
you're looking to know not only regroup, you're looking to
retool what your offense is going to be coming out
of the by I think one thing that is clear
to them is they've got to get Ricky Piersall involved
(20:08):
back in the offense because prior to the injury, he's
hitting these props. This is a low number. We're looking
at thirty point five receiving yards when this was an
absolute smash every week before he ends up getting hurt.
So are there great numbers on targets and everything. There's
not because he hasn't been getting them. But Erickson and
I both believe he is going to get involved coming.
Speaker 2 (20:29):
Out of this now.
Speaker 3 (20:30):
The other side of this is taking a look at
the defensive matchup. This is a great defensive matchup. Eight
of the fourteen weeks the Titans have given up thirty
or more yards to two plus wide receivers gone up again.
So again this isn't like a huge, big crazy number
Marcus Harris. Their best corner, you know, grades out pretty
(20:50):
well but is likely going to be locked up against
Juwan Jennings other corner. You're looking at bottom half fifty
nine out of one eleven according to PFF and really
really safety coverage grades which actually I like about a
wide receiver that's going to come over the top, which
that is Ricky Piersol. Projections love this though every projection
place has got him over forty and really there's not
(21:12):
a lot to go off of, but everybody thinks we're
going to get him back in this offense. I believe
coming off of the buye this is a clearcut thing
that needs to be addressed, will be and it is
a really good matchup for that to happen. So super
low number Ricky Piersol thirty point five. If he doesn't
hit it, he's dead to me and I'll be over.
But this is the gross sicko bet vibe bet.
Speaker 2 (21:34):
Of the week.
Speaker 1 (21:35):
Those vibes really come and go quickly around here. I
guess gott to say, wellh we hope for Ricky Piersoll's sake,
things go all right, all right, Next up here, Kyle Mnnngui. Look, Andrew,
there's another one that we've discussed on some other shows,
you and I together. We're both in Almanagai this week.
The Carrie number is twelve and a half and I
think the Undertaker is going to take the over. I
got a feeling of it already. Bet this.
Speaker 3 (21:57):
I just want to point out before actually even says
it me and actually talked about. This is the first
thing I bet this week, if anything.
Speaker 1 (22:02):
Save the bus for last. Let's go in because it's
gonna smash.
Speaker 4 (22:05):
And I think it took fifteen weeks, but I have
a full card of all overs. All my player props
are over. Yeah, that's right, you do look at this
is not like an intention like I went out and
be like I gotta do all the overs. I actually
liked a lot of unders in terms of the game
totals this week. So go check out the Best Bet
show with myself and Joe. But yeah, this week, I'm
doing all overs on a player props and this is
(22:25):
my favorite one on the card. Kaya Mnung guy going
over twelve and a half carries. It's December at Soldier Field.
You have a bowling ball running back in Kyle manong
Guy against a Browns defense. It just got boat raced
by Tony Pollard, someone that was left for dead on
every fantasy football bench, and he went off against this
Browns defense. What do you think Ben Johnson's gonna do
(22:45):
when he reviews the table, thinks, yeah, I think I
could probably run effectively on this Browns defense, especially with
them on the road. Malik Collins defensive tackle, he didn't
play last week. Mason Graham their other defensive tackle. He's
banged up with the rib injury. He hasn't been practicing.
So I think the run wild here. And the guy
that they feature in feed is rookie Rutgers running back
Kyle Manongai. Based on how physical he is. No one's
(23:07):
gonna want to tackle this guy when it's zero degree
temperatures out, especially the Browns defense on the road. So
give me manong Guy over twelve and a half carries again.
Last four weeks, he's been averaging fifteen carries per game.
That's the same as DeAndre Swift. He actually has fourteen
or more in three of his last four games played
twelve plus carries in four straight games overall, so I
think twelve is like the minimum for me. It wouldn't
(23:30):
surprise you if he gets up to twenty carries in
this game. Has a monster performance. So give me Kyle
Mamanong Guy, the rookie running back to smash the Browns
this week.
Speaker 1 (23:39):
I like it. I'm in on it. Got mann Guy
shares too that I drafted that I've been playing the
last couple of weeks. Been very happy overall with all
of those shares. All right, let's get to the touchdown calls,
and remember the touchdown score report is also available on
Betting Pros. All you have to do is head over
to betting pros dot com slash touchdown to to view
the very latest in touchdown prop analysis. Again, the touchdown stats,
(24:00):
the props to bet the odds, everything is there versus
the projections to help identify the very best at anytime
touchdown bets only at bettingcrows dot com slash touchdown. I'm
going with two here today. I was gonna go and
be fancy with the uh the two tight ends, but
the Mark Andrews injury popped up yesterday and now I'm
not feeling as good about the double tight end touchdown call.
So I'm just gonna stick with Isaiah likely plus two
(24:21):
thirty and then I'm gonna go with tenor Roa McMillan
in a game against the New Orleans Saints at plus
one fifty five. So those are pretty good numbers there.
I think I can go two for two this week,
and I need to. I need to stop crap into
bed here. I need to get forward here on this
touchdown call. Contest got way too close here. I had
a nice lead, and that is disintegrated. Man. I feel
like I feel like the Indianapolis Colts when we get
(24:43):
the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Well, shout about you where you're
going for your touchdown calls in week fifteen.
Speaker 3 (24:48):
Yeah, that's disintegrated by the way, Like Erickson is tied
with you and I was I was far I'm one
behind both of you and I was way far away.
Speaker 2 (24:55):
I know I've got up good drama.
Speaker 1 (24:56):
It's good ratings for TV.
Speaker 2 (24:58):
So it is pretty good.
Speaker 3 (24:58):
Well kind of in with that, I don't think I've
taken a single like minus touchdown bet this entire season.
I am going to this week, but it's especially minus
one O five minus won ten in any spot, and
I'm going to serve with Trevion Henderson just kind of
looking through the cart. I think it's some solid like
you know, plus one forty one to fifty bets. But
I just kept staring at Traveon Henderson and I couldn't
(25:20):
get away from it. Bills ranked thirty one to thirty
two defensive grade against running backs, specifically this acording PFF
twenty four of thirty two in yards after contact. They
rank thirty one of thirty two and miss tackles and
twenty four of thirty two on their overall defensive front. Oh,
by the way, the Bills have given up sixteen rushing
touchdowns this year to running backs and at least one
rushing touchdown in all but two games. Trevion Henderson book
(25:44):
it and then my big play that one's gonna hate it.
Speaker 2 (25:47):
It's gonna be gross. It's Tyler Warren. Now here's it.
Now here's part of it.
Speaker 3 (25:50):
Though, and what I said before, because it didn't really
account to the receptions. Not only take everything I said
with Tyler Warren as far as like receptions go, and
see how grading out horrifically five touchdowns they've given up
to tight ends. But also we should be looking at
Tyler Warren being used in some other spots. Guy can
be a running back guy. I mean, the quarterback thing
(26:11):
is not going to help me if he throws a touchdown,
But don't be surprised if there's any tush push type
of situation and he runs out. You're not gonna philip
rivers do that. If they do those little inder round things,
like Tyler Warren is going to be used in other
spots where they need to get creative with a sixty
seven year old quarterback behind center. So I really like
Tyler Warren on the ROI because the number is like
(26:33):
plus three point fifty, so that is super super low
against a team that is bad against tight ends and
a tight end that get used another spot. So I'm
very much in on a Tyler Warren touchdown.
Speaker 1 (26:44):
All right. Ericson Europe give us two tuddies for week fifteen.
Speaker 4 (26:47):
Already talked about my love for common on. Guy gonna
see a lot of carries, a lot of rushing yards,
and I think he's also going to find Peydrt just because
he's really been the guy they've focused mostly in the
red zone. He actually had a two point conversion last
week where the offensive line just like will their way
to push him into the end zone. I think they
can see that again here with the Bears playing at home.
So I like Manungai, especially at the odds at plus
one thirty. Again, it's kind of a process play with me.
(27:10):
Take home teams the lead running back in the red
zone and bet them to score touchdowns because that's a
most likely outcome going to happen. So Manunguy plus one thirty.
And then the same thing with Zach Sharbone. I get
that he's super frustrating fantasy because he just scores a
bunch of touchdowns and Ken Walker gets all the yards.
Speaker 2 (27:26):
But it doesn't matter.
Speaker 4 (27:27):
Jack Sharboney has scored in every single home game the
Seahawks have played this year, minus one l five. Like,
I get that it's not like the sexiest odds. But
if he scores, just like with with Welsh's pick, if
Henderson scores, who cares, Like minus one of five is fine, Like,
and that's making money. You can't make money go you
can't be You're not gonna go broke, being right, So
I like the Zach Sharbonney call because I think he's
(27:48):
just he's gonna score, So minus one oh five, I
think that's good odds. Also Joe too, I think the
likely odds at plus two thirty, Like, yeah, that's that's
kind of like insane.
Speaker 2 (27:58):
Just that long, Joe made the sheet.
Speaker 3 (28:00):
Joe made the sheet and then just dropped his touchdowns
and didn't allow I was one hundred percent going likely
in Warren this week.
Speaker 1 (28:05):
Those are my touchdowns, so likely And if he scores,
you're just gonna you know, just keep pace with me now.
Speaker 2 (28:10):
I want to. I want you to be the bottom
of this list on touchdowns more.
Speaker 1 (28:14):
Than that might be who isaia likely? Holding touchdowns is
the problem catching them completing. They're completing and finishing the touchdown.
That's where the strug.
Speaker 3 (28:24):
He's kind of like, there's kind of like a there's
a path going. He catches one and then drops it
right before the end zone. Then he catches one, gets
three feet down, but it's not quite there. Like the
only path next is to have a full completion, hold it,
fall on the ball, and actually get a touchdown.
Speaker 2 (28:39):
It's the perfect ending to his story.
Speaker 1 (28:42):
Yeah, let's hope the Cincinnati Bengals just continue to give
up points to tight end. So I'm just hoping, I
say likely, if he's going to take advantage of that somewhere,
it's going to be against the Cincinnati Bengals. But we'll
see you in the meantime. You can follow us over
on Betting Pros all of us. Just download the app
and search for our names. You can follow and see
what we're in on this week in the NFL. And
that'll do for us, But the story of the game
goes on for the Welsh and the overtaker. I'm Joey p.
(29:04):
We'll see you next time. Kids.
Speaker 5 (29:06):
Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast. If you
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Welcome in everybody to betting pros. It's time to place
your bets. It is me Joey p Joe Pi Zapia
and this is BP NFL. It's week fifteen. It's time
to look at to the props with the Welsh and
the Andrew Erickson. They've got five props each lined up
for you. We've got some touchdown calls. That contest has
gotten way too close. I don't like it at all.
And of course maybe we'll touch on a little bit.
(00:22):
What was all last night? Thursday Night football? The Buccaneers, Welsh,
we the bleeding cannot be stopped. It's orange blood everywhere.
The Buccaneers just keep losing games and Kirk Cousins, Kirk
Cousins keeps carving him up on an annual basis. What
is happening to the Bucks?
Speaker 2 (00:36):
I mean, how about stop a tight end?
Speaker 3 (00:39):
Well, we thought was the most overrated tight end ever
and then he just puts up the third best tight
end performance I think since the year I was born.
It was wild to watch Kyle Pitts live up to
all the expectations.
Speaker 2 (00:52):
And I think what's.
Speaker 3 (00:53):
More brutal about it is this was the full completion
of this team. You know, what was the interview before.
They're like, Baker, how do you feel that you now
have all your pieces and everybody's healthy and everyone's there,
And He's like, I feel like losing, you know, like.
Speaker 2 (01:04):
That's what it essentially happened.
Speaker 3 (01:07):
It was pretty actually shocking, to be honest with you,
for them to kind of drop it and not be
able to put all that together. But it wasn't you know,
it wasn't just on Baker. The offense, even though Baker
seems way more stoic and confused at the offensive line
point when any type of pressure is coming in the
defense was just Cake.
Speaker 2 (01:24):
It was. It was bad. It was depressing if you
were a Bucks fan. I'm not so I'm not depressed,
but it was rough.
Speaker 1 (01:30):
Andrew, we talk a lot about the Best Bets Show.
If you miss it, you can go back and watch
about some of these games that are very heavy favorites
this week, right, A lot of big giant underdogs, a
lot of one sided potential games. How does that affect
as you're you know, starting to work on analyzing props
because you know, one side of games sometimes can be
really difficult to kind of plug in the stuff that
you like, because you just don't know our team's going
(01:51):
to shut things down in the third and fourth quarter
if they're up by a lot, or things going to
go sideways, and some of those games that we never
saw coming.
Speaker 4 (01:57):
Yeah, it's always tough to handicap that and to consider that.
But again, sometimes it's just better to look at how
many points does this team imply to score. They're gonna
score a lot of points. Chances are that's good for
those offensive players. You bet the overs on those offensive players.
You bet the unders on the players that are getting
blown out. So again, you can always get beat by
garbage time. You can always get beat by a back
door cover here and there. But ten those things tend
(02:19):
to regress over time and usually aren't the best bets
to make, unlike the ones that we're going to talk
about here today.
Speaker 1 (02:26):
All Right, you gotta get better than last week. Two
Welsh one in four ericson two and three ericson. You're
just under five hundred Welsh still over five hundred four
of the year and a touchdown contest. Oh my god,
Welsh at twelve erics and I tied at thirteen. I
didn't get any last week. I gotta get a bunch
this week.
Speaker 2 (02:41):
I hit my almost four to one.
Speaker 3 (02:43):
So if we were doing ROW, I'd love to have
seen this as an ROI thing this next year, because
that was a close to four to one tight end call.
But that was about the only good thing I had
last week.
Speaker 1 (02:51):
So next year we'll have that technology. All right, Welsh,
why don't you kick us off here with the first
of our props for week fifteen. Obviously, the first one
up here is for the New York Giants and Washington
Commander's contest, one that could have a surprisingly high total.
So let's talk about Terry mclaurin's output in that game.
Speaker 3 (03:08):
So if you listened to any of the shows that
Ericson and I have done this week, Ericson and I
do quite a few shows together. We're a team, and
we would have given you a preview, specifically on the
Extra Point podcast, which is on our discord over on
Fantasy Pros. You would have got a little bit of
a tease of the few of the things that we
really really liked. And I had talked about this one
and I made it my first one of the week.
It is Terry McLaurin. I'm all in on Terry mcluurin.
(03:29):
This week, we're going with the receiving yards sixty point five,
fourteen targets. Those fourteen targets they were not last week.
Those were the Jayden Daniels targets and then he gets
hurt in the Mariota those are the targets. As Terry
mclauin return back to game action with Marcus Mariota. Marcus
Mariota targeting fourteen times. He got seven for ninety six
(03:51):
in that big game against the Denver Broncos. Phenomenal start,
even when he was just getting his legs fresh under him.
Now you've got Mariota as the starter of this week,
You've got a great matchup. Giants giving up the in
top ten in passing yards allowed overall on the season.
They defensively grade out according to PFF twenty eight of
thirty two against wide receivers. I think it's a prime
(04:13):
matchup where Mariota is throwing the ball a bunch more.
Terry McLaurin is his target. As Ericson says, anything but
Deebo Samuel should be your fantasy output and in your
prop output, I think that equates to Terry McLaurin Terry
McLaurin is also the big target, you know, the big
play target guy. This is something with a really bad
defensive matchup, or at least on their side bad defensively.
(04:34):
Terry McLaurin could get eighty percent of this on one catch,
and we know he's going to get targeted by Marcus Mariota.
Run games also a little banged up. We'll see with
the Chris Rodriguez stuff, but either way, and you can
run against the Giants. That's probably like the biggest negative
you would have in this one. But I think that's
going to set up play action and I think that's
going to set up Terry McLaurin to kind of eat
in this one. So sixty point five receiving yards give
(04:54):
me the over all.
Speaker 1 (04:56):
Right, Andrew Erickson, looks like your first prop of the
week has a little bit of Joey Pam Lewins because
this is one of my things for the Parlays show.
Let's talk about Drake may and his passing yard total
in this huge game where the divisions on the line
with the Buffalo Bills.
Speaker 4 (05:09):
Well, I loved this so much that I third on
the Prop show because I think that it deserves for
everybody to be part of this, even if it's not
part of your parlay. This should be a single player
prop bet that you make Drake May over two hundred
thirty and a half passing yards. It really is just
a number that you look at and think, this guy
leads the NFL passing yards and this is what his
passing yards prop is set at. He's thrown for two
(05:31):
hundred and forty passing yards ten times this season. That's
tied for the most of any quarterback this year. He's
on a streak of six consecutive games that leads two
hundred and forty passing yards, third longest active streak in
the NFL this season. He's already thrown for two hundred
and seventy three yards against the Bills this season back
in Week five, and at home. He's hit this number
in all but one home game six out of seven,
(05:52):
and in three or four of the game to the
Patriots as underdogs this season. So, I mean, usually some
of these props you come on here, it's like these
kind of vomit players with these really low props. They're like, oh, like,
I think you can squeeze right over it. But this
one to me is just like, oh, I can bet
on a great player in a great game to hit
a dramatically low number. So yeah, this one for me
(06:14):
is a layup easy, especially with the Bills that actually
put one of their Christian Benford was on the injury
report added this week. He's probably their best defensive back.
And if he doesn't go or he's less than one
hundred percent, you're just gonna see Drake may shred this
Bill secondary. So I give it you over it.
Speaker 1 (06:27):
Yeah, it's a low number. I don't get it, like
weather be damned again. People try to tell me last
week about how everything was gonna be under because of
the weather. How'd that work out? How'd that work out?
All right, let's go to Welsh's second selection here, and
it's got to do with Rushi Rice now the the
Patrick Mahomes Kansas City Chiefs right now or in their
feelings and rightfully so, I mean they're a six win
team on the outside of the bubble looking in another
(06:49):
must win game. And I'm getting tired of saying of
Welsh on the must win game every single week for
the Kansay Chiefs. So how can Rushie Rice's prop market
influence the Chiefs. That may be a positive way and
maybe our wallets as well.
Speaker 3 (07:01):
Yeah, I mean the Chiefs are definitely, you know, teetering
down right now. I wouldn't quite think that they're a
team that, you know, win that pressure is put on
and when it's important that they're going to just buckle
and just pack it in, They're going to go as
hard as possible, and that means they need to be
more aggressive. I don't even know if that necessarily pushes
to this exact prop, but I think they got to
get the ball in the air more. But what we
(07:22):
did see last week when that must win, big pressure
situation was drops. We saw a ton of drops, and
we need these guys to pick this back up this week.
I'm pretty heavy across multiple props on receptions and the
reception guy. When we look across all the wide receivers
in this game, it is Rashi Rice. We're going to
go to Rashi Rice plus seven catches or over six
(07:43):
and a half receptions and it's plus money this week.
Rice has hit this in two of his last three games.
Found this really interesting over on PFF Rice. Against zone
heavy defenses, Rice is targeted at the third highest rate
among wide receivers in the end in zone coverage. The
Chargers play the fourth highest rate of zone coverage in
(08:04):
the NFL. So and what I think is going to
be a past heavy situation, Rashee Rice should see a
ton of receptions. Projections also like this. Most projections have
him at the seven plus markers. So you're getting plus
money on seven receptions for Rashi Rice. I know it's
a weird situation with the Chiefs didn't hit it last week,
had the drops. We're going to bounce back from that.
(08:26):
Mahomes is going to target him a bunch and we're
gonna get seven receptions plus money Rashi Rice.
Speaker 1 (08:30):
All right, plus money on Rushie Rice. Next one, we're
talking about a running back here in one of the
many potential blowout games. We've got the Jacksonville Jaguars and
a beat up spot where the Jets are playing a
third string quarterback. Gross So Travis ATM let's talk about
his prop total. It's seventy two and a half rushing
yards Andrew it seems like a game where you're gonna
have a lead if you are the Jags, and you're
(08:50):
gonna be running out some clock late.
Speaker 4 (08:52):
That's the way I hope it plays out because I'm
taking the over on Travis Eaton and his rushing yards
at seventy two and a half rushing yards. That actually
hit this in four of his last six games played.
He's kind of been on a low key heater. Usually
Travis Eten kind of falls off in the second half
of season. Not really been the case this year where
they've been really leaning on him, and he's been part
of the reason why the Jaguars have been on this
hot streak over the last four to six weeks. So
(09:14):
the Jets defensively ever since they traded Quentin Williams. I'm
saying this on a lot of shows, but just bunts
against the run the New York Jets, So I like
attacking their defense. You've just seen some running backs recently
face them and just have absolute monster games. Eight Chan
last week, he didn't play the full game, and he
had a monster game in the first half against the
New York Jets. Nine running backs in the last seven
(09:35):
games have hit at least sixty two rushing yards against
the Jets. Seven hit sixty five or more. And like
I said, Etn has been going over the number pretty consistently,
and I do think they're going to continue to lean
on him instead of bay Shell two, who had two
fumbles last week. And they even talked about the coaches
this week about Etn Hey. When he gets going, he
is our workhorse. He can really do a lot of damage.
So I like Etn here to go over at home,
(09:56):
big total positive game script against Brady Quick Brady Cook. Yeah,
give me the jag your RB all right.
Speaker 1 (10:03):
Before we get to the next prop on our list,
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All right, let's get to the next prop on the
list for the boys here. Well, it's tough to know
what we're gonna get from the Indianapolis Colts now that
Daniel Jones is out for the year. So how are
(11:47):
we going to take a look at Tyler Warren in
week fifteen?
Speaker 3 (11:52):
Yeah, this is the second of my series of plus
money receptions that we're going with this week. And I
talked about this a lot on all of the show,
And you know, it's a risky endeavor because you have
no idea what you're getting in with With Philip Rivers
hasn't played in five years, he is familiar with the offense.
Are they gonna just lean on four hundred and twenty
(12:12):
two carries from Jonathan Taylor?
Speaker 2 (12:13):
You don't know. But if Philip.
Speaker 3 (12:15):
Rivers is going to be in that game, there is
going to be some passing going on. And I don't
think it's going to be big volume passing, and that's
where I'm gonna lean on Tyler Warren. I think Tyler
Warren will be his safety net, so on Warren himself.
Warren has hit this six times this year five or
more receptions, including three of his last five rivers. When
we look at him last we saw him, he was
a slight lean to throwing to tight ends. Before his retirement,
(12:38):
he was a little bit above average on his target
rate to tight ends versus the league average.
Speaker 2 (12:43):
So that's a positive in general. Then if you go
and look.
Speaker 3 (12:47):
At the Seahawks, the Seahawks defense does a lot of things. Well,
what it doesn't do is cover tight ends. They have
a defensive grade of thirty one out of thirty two
against tight ends so far this year.
Speaker 2 (12:56):
And going in to this is a.
Speaker 3 (12:59):
Stat I saw in God, I should have saved the
person who put this out. This is going into last
week's matchup, but essentially was saying that the Seahawks, ravaging
almost seven targets per game around seven the most receptions
around just run seven receptions and allowing the third most
receiving yards of tight ends. So tight ends are a
(13:19):
susceptible piece for the Seattle Seahawks, and that's going to
be the safety net for this offense. Plus on top
of it. You know, this isn't necessarily this is more
to something we'll talk about later, but I think Tyler
WARN's gonna be used in a lot of spots. But
I think Philip Rivers is going to be looking for
safety net stuff when they're trying to move the ball,
when the boxes are stacked on Jonathan Taylor first down runs,
(13:40):
which would probably happen, you know, every single play, then
they're going to be forced into throwing and it's going
to be short line stuff. And I think that's where
Tyler Warren is going to help a lot. Here, So
five receptions from plus one point thirty and that's a
Philip Rivers esque number because we're terrified of him, I
get it. I'm jumping on on a plus number five
receptions for Tyler.
Speaker 1 (14:00):
All Right, Andrew Rickson, we're already discussed Travis ATM and
what that game might look like in garbage time, running
out the clock. What about the Seattle Seahawks also potentially
in that mode in week fifteen.
Speaker 4 (14:11):
Yeah, I think that Seattle is gonna destroy the Golts.
I mean, would he have been surprised if Daniel Jones
went up to Seattle with this team and got destroyed
by the Seattle Seahawks. Like, No, So now that I
still have this forty four year old quarterback coming in,
I just I'm just not optimistic about this Colts offense.
So I like backing the blowout type of game strip
(14:32):
with the Seattle Seahawks, and that leads me to Kenneth
Walker over fifty seven and a half rushing yards. The
Seahawks have been the run heaviest team this season, calling
run plays nearly fifty percent of their plays. Ken Walker
has been much better at home than he's been on
the road. He's sixty plus rushing yards in three of
his last four home games. The last four running decks
to face the Indianapolis Colts have given up sixty four
(14:53):
rushing yards or have had sixty four or more rushing yards.
Now there is a chance that the Colts do get
defensive tackled to forest buck back from injury preserve, but
he's also missed a lot of time he was dealing
with a neck nerve injury, So that's always kind of
concerning about how effective he is going to be dealing
with the loss of strength with so much time miss.
So I'm just buying into the Seahawks laying the hammer
(15:15):
on Indianapolis Colts. I mean, Seattle has showed up big
in these spots at home as heavy home favorites of
touchdowns are more than three to zero against the spread.
They're also number one in the NFL in margin of
victory seventeen points. So if they're killing this team, I
think Kennith Walker. Yes, maybe he's not even in the
game in the fourth quarter, but I think he's getting
get enough work and see enough explosive plays where he
can get to at least sixty rushing yards and take
(15:37):
the over on ken Walker.
Speaker 1 (15:40):
All right, make sure you take a look at the
propa at Chichiet every single week because that's going to
give you all these props, the best lines, the projections too,
So sink your sportsbooks are free. Download the Fantasy pros
app and the Betting pros app. As you make your
run to glory in fantasy, make your run to glory
in the betting world too. There's only a couple of
regular season weeks left here, or a fantasy didn't work
(16:01):
out for it's a perfect time. Start looking a little
bit more towards the betting things, and the betting prop
cheat sheet is the tool that you all need right
now again, passing, rushing, receiving. All the stack categories are
there in the prop bet cheat sheet. Go to Betting
pros dot com slash props, or just download the app
today and start betting smarter, not harder. Next up here, Welsh,
we know the Cincinnati Bengals do not farewell against tight ends,
(16:22):
so let's talk a little about Isaiah Likely and what
he's likely to do in week fifteen.
Speaker 3 (16:27):
This is the final of the series. This is our
third book in the plus reception series that we're going
to be running, and I am all about Isaiah Likely
over Mark Andrews Likely.
Speaker 1 (16:36):
A trilogy, Welsh.
Speaker 3 (16:37):
I gotta see yep this and hopefully this trilogy is
going to end better than many other trilogies. Isaiah Likely
receptions four plus He's also plus money around plus one
thirty is where you're seeing it. Bengals are the worst
against tight ends. We talked about Tyler Warren going up
against the Seahawks. There's a dicey situations. Zhawks aren't good,
but the Bengals are the worst. They grade thirty two
(16:58):
to thirty two according to PFF. On average, they're giving
up ten targets to tight ends, over seven receptions and.
Speaker 2 (17:04):
Over ninety receiving yards.
Speaker 3 (17:07):
So receiving yards might be a plus that you can
play on this, but I like the receptions of this
big plus money here trying to go out big towards
the end of the year. Likely has been the top
tight end option for the Ravens over the last couple
of weeks, with twelve targets over the last two games,
and he has hit this reception yard prop in both
of those games. Plus it would have been even more
had those touchdowns not been ruled out of his favor
(17:29):
or the one that just plopped out. I like Likely
in this situation. He did this against the Bengals. He
hit this prop against the Bengals. I think he is
the big playmaker option here. His receiving yard prop is
also again low, It's relatively low. It's like in the thirties,
but for four receptions when he's been hitting this against
the Bengals team that is cheeks against tight ends. I'm
(17:51):
all about Isaiah Likely on the receptions.
Speaker 1 (17:53):
All right, more likely stuff later in the show too.
Andrew ericson, let's do another tight end conversation here, Jue
on Johnson. The numbers three and a half receptions for
the Saints tight end, we're going over or under undertaker.
Speaker 4 (18:05):
We are going over. But I do have to make
one point about Welsh's cheeks reference. You know who was
on the injury report with a glute injury, Mark Andrews.
Speaker 1 (18:14):
Who Mark Andrews right.
Speaker 4 (18:15):
The other Ravens tight eds. So it's all coming first
full circle with buns, cheeks and glutes that we need.
Speaker 1 (18:23):
There is Jake, but Jake but nice, well done, well
done Welsh, well Kaseean Boody too. We can give Booty
little parlay. It feels like a parlay somewhere in there.
I don't know how we got to figure it out.
Speaker 4 (18:32):
I am going over with Juwan Johnson. This one just
kind of stood out to me because I thought there
was a lot of value on the number here, over
three and a half receptions. He's had at least four
catches in every single game he's played since Week seven
except for one.
Speaker 1 (18:45):
Last week.
Speaker 4 (18:45):
He even got to four receptions despite the Saints kind
of dialing back the passing attack because of the weather
that was being played in Tampa Bay. In the first
matchup against Carolina, Johnson had four catches on four targets
for ninety two yards and a touchdown. So his recepsions
prop has really been more around that four and a
half number. It's down to three and a half just
because I think that last week we didn't see a
(19:06):
ton of passing volonging from the Saints. I don't expect
that necessarily carry over in dome conditions here at home
for the New Orleans Saints. So I would take the
over on Juwan Johnson three and a half receptions. He's
been hitting this at a pretty high rate.
Speaker 1 (19:18):
All right, We've got one more prop to go for everybody,
and then the touchdown calls will be upon us. So Welsh,
let's finish strong here with your forty nine. Or is
Ricky Pierce all he still goes there? Does he still
go to San Francisco?
Speaker 2 (19:30):
You wouldn't know it. This is an all vibes play.
Speaker 3 (19:34):
So if you're looking for all the great data that's
going to tell you why this is a lock and
a smash. Sorry, this is me and ericson, Me and
Erickson are all vibes about this the forty nine ers.
Speaker 2 (19:46):
I mean, since Ricky Pearsall has.
Speaker 3 (19:47):
Come back, you wouldn't know that he's been back. He's
been an absolute ghost in that offense. He has not
been used whatsoever. Forty nine has been trying to get
their feet under them. One of the big changes here
is going into the bye week, and I think if
you're looking to know not only regroup, you're looking to
retool what your offense is going to be coming out
of the by I think one thing that is clear
to them is they've got to get Ricky Piersall involved
(20:08):
back in the offense because prior to the injury, he's
hitting these props. This is a low number. We're looking
at thirty point five receiving yards when this was an
absolute smash every week before he ends up getting hurt.
So are there great numbers on targets and everything. There's
not because he hasn't been getting them. But Erickson and
I both believe he is going to get involved coming.
Speaker 2 (20:29):
Out of this now.
Speaker 3 (20:30):
The other side of this is taking a look at
the defensive matchup. This is a great defensive matchup. Eight
of the fourteen weeks the Titans have given up thirty
or more yards to two plus wide receivers gone up again.
So again this isn't like a huge, big crazy number
Marcus Harris. Their best corner, you know, grades out pretty
(20:50):
well but is likely going to be locked up against
Juwan Jennings other corner. You're looking at bottom half fifty
nine out of one eleven according to PFF and really
really safety coverage grades which actually I like about a
wide receiver that's going to come over the top, which
that is Ricky Piersol. Projections love this though every projection
place has got him over forty and really there's not
(21:12):
a lot to go off of, but everybody thinks we're
going to get him back in this offense. I believe
coming off of the buye this is a clearcut thing
that needs to be addressed, will be and it is
a really good matchup for that to happen. So super
low number Ricky Piersol thirty point five. If he doesn't
hit it, he's dead to me and I'll be over.
But this is the gross sicko bet vibe bet.
Speaker 2 (21:34):
Of the week.
Speaker 1 (21:35):
Those vibes really come and go quickly around here. I
guess gott to say, wellh we hope for Ricky Piersoll's sake,
things go all right, all right, Next up here, Kyle Mnnngui. Look, Andrew,
there's another one that we've discussed on some other shows,
you and I together. We're both in Almanagai this week.
The Carrie number is twelve and a half and I
think the Undertaker is going to take the over. I
got a feeling of it already. Bet this.
Speaker 3 (21:57):
I just want to point out before actually even says
it me and actually talked about. This is the first
thing I bet this week, if anything.
Speaker 1 (22:02):
Save the bus for last. Let's go in because it's
gonna smash.
Speaker 4 (22:05):
And I think it took fifteen weeks, but I have
a full card of all overs. All my player props
are over. Yeah, that's right, you do look at this
is not like an intention like I went out and
be like I gotta do all the overs. I actually
liked a lot of unders in terms of the game
totals this week. So go check out the Best Bet
show with myself and Joe. But yeah, this week, I'm
doing all overs on a player props and this is
(22:25):
my favorite one on the card. Kaya Mnung guy going
over twelve and a half carries. It's December at Soldier Field.
You have a bowling ball running back in Kyle manong
Guy against a Browns defense. It just got boat raced
by Tony Pollard, someone that was left for dead on
every fantasy football bench, and he went off against this
Browns defense. What do you think Ben Johnson's gonna do
(22:45):
when he reviews the table, thinks, yeah, I think I
could probably run effectively on this Browns defense, especially with
them on the road. Malik Collins defensive tackle, he didn't
play last week. Mason Graham their other defensive tackle. He's
banged up with the rib injury. He hasn't been practicing.
So I think the run wild here. And the guy
that they feature in feed is rookie Rutgers running back
Kyle Manongai. Based on how physical he is. No one's
(23:07):
gonna want to tackle this guy when it's zero degree
temperatures out, especially the Browns defense on the road. So
give me manong Guy over twelve and a half carries again.
Last four weeks, he's been averaging fifteen carries per game.
That's the same as DeAndre Swift. He actually has fourteen
or more in three of his last four games played
twelve plus carries in four straight games overall, so I
think twelve is like the minimum for me. It wouldn't
(23:30):
surprise you if he gets up to twenty carries in
this game. Has a monster performance. So give me Kyle
Mamanong Guy, the rookie running back to smash the Browns
this week.
Speaker 1 (23:39):
I like it. I'm in on it. Got mann Guy
shares too that I drafted that I've been playing the
last couple of weeks. Been very happy overall with all
of those shares. All right, let's get to the touchdown calls,
and remember the touchdown score report is also available on
Betting Pros. All you have to do is head over
to betting pros dot com slash touchdown to to view
the very latest in touchdown prop analysis. Again, the touchdown stats,
(24:00):
the props to bet the odds, everything is there versus
the projections to help identify the very best at anytime
touchdown bets only at bettingcrows dot com slash touchdown. I'm
going with two here today. I was gonna go and
be fancy with the uh the two tight ends, but
the Mark Andrews injury popped up yesterday and now I'm
not feeling as good about the double tight end touchdown call.
So I'm just gonna stick with Isaiah likely plus two
(24:21):
thirty and then I'm gonna go with tenor Roa McMillan
in a game against the New Orleans Saints at plus
one fifty five. So those are pretty good numbers there.
I think I can go two for two this week,
and I need to. I need to stop crap into
bed here. I need to get forward here on this
touchdown call. Contest got way too close here. I had
a nice lead, and that is disintegrated. Man. I feel
like I feel like the Indianapolis Colts when we get
(24:43):
the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Well, shout about you where you're
going for your touchdown calls in week fifteen.
Speaker 3 (24:48):
Yeah, that's disintegrated by the way, Like Erickson is tied
with you and I was I was far I'm one
behind both of you and I was way far away.
Speaker 2 (24:55):
I know I've got up good drama.
Speaker 1 (24:56):
It's good ratings for TV.
Speaker 2 (24:58):
So it is pretty good.
Speaker 3 (24:58):
Well kind of in with that, I don't think I've
taken a single like minus touchdown bet this entire season.
I am going to this week, but it's especially minus
one O five minus won ten in any spot, and
I'm going to serve with Trevion Henderson just kind of
looking through the cart. I think it's some solid like
you know, plus one forty one to fifty bets. But
I just kept staring at Traveon Henderson and I couldn't
(25:20):
get away from it. Bills ranked thirty one to thirty
two defensive grade against running backs, specifically this acording PFF
twenty four of thirty two in yards after contact. They
rank thirty one of thirty two and miss tackles and
twenty four of thirty two on their overall defensive front. Oh,
by the way, the Bills have given up sixteen rushing
touchdowns this year to running backs and at least one
rushing touchdown in all but two games. Trevion Henderson book
(25:44):
it and then my big play that one's gonna hate it.
Speaker 2 (25:47):
It's gonna be gross. It's Tyler Warren. Now here's it.
Now here's part of it.
Speaker 3 (25:50):
Though, and what I said before, because it didn't really
account to the receptions. Not only take everything I said
with Tyler Warren as far as like receptions go, and
see how grading out horrifically five touchdowns they've given up
to tight ends. But also we should be looking at
Tyler Warren being used in some other spots. Guy can
be a running back guy. I mean, the quarterback thing
(26:11):
is not going to help me if he throws a touchdown,
But don't be surprised if there's any tush push type
of situation and he runs out. You're not gonna philip
rivers do that. If they do those little inder round things,
like Tyler Warren is going to be used in other
spots where they need to get creative with a sixty
seven year old quarterback behind center. So I really like
Tyler Warren on the ROI because the number is like
(26:33):
plus three point fifty, so that is super super low
against a team that is bad against tight ends and
a tight end that get used another spot. So I'm
very much in on a Tyler Warren touchdown.
Speaker 1 (26:44):
All right. Ericson Europe give us two tuddies for week fifteen.
Speaker 4 (26:47):
Already talked about my love for common on. Guy gonna
see a lot of carries, a lot of rushing yards,
and I think he's also going to find Peydrt just because
he's really been the guy they've focused mostly in the
red zone. He actually had a two point conversion last
week where the offensive line just like will their way
to push him into the end zone. I think they
can see that again here with the Bears playing at home.
So I like Manungai, especially at the odds at plus
one thirty. Again, it's kind of a process play with me.
(27:10):
Take home teams the lead running back in the red
zone and bet them to score touchdowns because that's a
most likely outcome going to happen. So Manunguy plus one thirty.
And then the same thing with Zach Sharbone. I get
that he's super frustrating fantasy because he just scores a
bunch of touchdowns and Ken Walker gets all the yards.
Speaker 2 (27:26):
But it doesn't matter.
Speaker 4 (27:27):
Jack Sharboney has scored in every single home game the
Seahawks have played this year, minus one l five. Like,
I get that it's not like the sexiest odds. But
if he scores, just like with with Welsh's pick, if
Henderson scores, who cares, Like minus one of five is fine, Like,
and that's making money. You can't make money go you
can't be You're not gonna go broke, being right, So
I like the Zach Sharbonney call because I think he's
(27:48):
just he's gonna score, So minus one oh five, I
think that's good odds. Also Joe too, I think the
likely odds at plus two thirty, Like, yeah, that's that's
kind of like insane.
Speaker 2 (27:58):
Just that long, Joe made the sheet.
Speaker 3 (28:00):
Joe made the sheet and then just dropped his touchdowns
and didn't allow I was one hundred percent going likely
in Warren this week.
Speaker 1 (28:05):
Those are my touchdowns, so likely And if he scores,
you're just gonna you know, just keep pace with me now.
Speaker 2 (28:10):
I want to. I want you to be the bottom
of this list on touchdowns more.
Speaker 1 (28:14):
Than that might be who isaia likely? Holding touchdowns is
the problem catching them completing. They're completing and finishing the touchdown.
That's where the strug.
Speaker 3 (28:24):
He's kind of like, there's kind of like a there's
a path going. He catches one and then drops it
right before the end zone. Then he catches one, gets
three feet down, but it's not quite there. Like the
only path next is to have a full completion, hold it,
fall on the ball, and actually get a touchdown.
Speaker 2 (28:39):
It's the perfect ending to his story.
Speaker 1 (28:42):
Yeah, let's hope the Cincinnati Bengals just continue to give
up points to tight end. So I'm just hoping, I
say likely, if he's going to take advantage of that somewhere,
it's going to be against the Cincinnati Bengals. But we'll
see you in the meantime. You can follow us over
on Betting Pros all of us. Just download the app
and search for our names. You can follow and see
what we're in on this week in the NFL. And
that'll do for us, But the story of the game
goes on for the Welsh and the overtaker. I'm Joey p.
(29:04):
We'll see you next time. Kids.
Speaker 5 (29:06):
Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast. If you
love the show, the best freeway to support us is
by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.
Follow us on x and TikTok at Betting Pros, and
Instagram at Betting Pros NFL. Also subscribe to our YouTube
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Hosts And Creators
Andrew Erickson
Joe Pisapia
Derek Brown
Thor Nystrom
Ryan Wormeli
Pat Fitzmaurice
Matthew Freedman
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