Get ready for a sizzling episode as Joe Pisapia, Derek Brown, and Jake Ciely (@allinkid) from The Athletic each share their 5 hottest takes for the upcoming fantasy football season! Which player has the final two takes dedicated to them? The Pros will tell you!
Timestamps:
Introduction - 0:00:01
Jake's No. 5 Hot Take - 0:01:35
DBro's No. 5 Hot Take - 0:03:53
Joe's No. 5 - 0:06:58
Jake's No. 4 - 0:09:07
FantasyPros Dynasty Draft Kit - 0:11:02
DBro's No. 4 - 0:11:36
Joe's No. 4 - 0:14:45
Jake's No. 3 - 0:17:53
DBro's No. 3 - 0:20:39
Joe's No. 3 - 0:24:22
Jake's No. 2 - 0:26:52
DBro's No. 2 - 0:28:16
Joe's No. 2 - 0:31:16
DBro's No. 1 - 0:34:20
Joe and Jake's No. 1s - 0:37:49
Closing - 0:42:26
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:01):
Welcome in everybody to Fantasy Pros. This is the Fantasy
Football podcast. It has being Joey Paid Joe Piezapia and
today it's time for some early hot takes. That's right,
We're gonna get spicy on today's show and give you
some of our fun and exciting takes on the upcoming
fantasy season. Of course, Debro Derek Brown, the King of Bros,
Will join me. And the answer to the question who
(00:22):
did it? It was the One Armed Man. If you're
watching on the YouTube channel, you know this, it's Jake
Seely and again if you haven't subscribed to Fantasy Pros
YouTube so you can see it. Jake and I for
many years did a radio show together and on Tuesdays
we used to do Hot Take Tuesday. So Jake, this
is kind of a fun little way back machine for
you and I. Isn't that nice?
Speaker 2 (00:42):
When you said that hot day, I was like, where
do I know?
Speaker 1 (00:43):
Oh?
Speaker 2 (00:43):
Yeah, the award winning the award winning show, which you
accepted in the award for.
Speaker 1 (00:49):
I get accept it. Well, you know, somebody's got to
do the dirty work at the end of the day,
and yet I don't have the award. Again, it went
to the net one.
Speaker 3 (00:56):
What was the awarding?
Speaker 1 (00:57):
We won an FSGA Radio Show of the Year.
Speaker 2 (01:01):
And then I wasn't there and he held it up
underneath a picture of me.
Speaker 1 (01:05):
So yes, So this was like, Jake was there. This
is what friends are for. Everybody, This is what friends
are for. And hopefully everybody have fun Moorial Day weekend.
And now we're back to the grind, all of us.
But we are certainly happy to be here in that grind.
And of course let's just kick things off. Let's just
start the takes. Let's get go, and Jakeson's you're the guest,
(01:26):
and I know you know typing other things are hard
for you. I want to give you plenty of time
for the rest of the day now to do the
other things you have to do. So let's start with
your number five hot take for the fantasy football season.
Upcoming hot take.
Speaker 2 (01:39):
Hot take, I don't know how that spicy. This is
the funny thing was I was going through these because
you said you want the good ones, and I was
doing the show all in football and I said, Sam
Howell outperforms Canny Pickett and they're like, that's not even hot.
I was like, so I had to come a little
bit spicier, and I don't even know what this one is.
This is why it's five and not one. But Arizona
Cardinals are not only the worst team in the league.
Speaker 3 (01:58):
We don't want to.
Speaker 2 (01:59):
Start any of their plays in fantasy, and I include
Marquis Brown and James Connor. I think that if you're
looking back, we know as fantasy pros on this show
is what we go back to. The late Mike Taglieier,
who wrote the article about a top ten running back
on a bottom ten offense doesn't happen. I think it'd
be even worse than that. Colt McCoy. I don't even
know Kyler Murray plays this year, because what do you
do come back to a two and nine team. There's
(02:20):
no point. So no James Connor because the touchdown equity
won't be there for how eliminated his touches are now
and not playing seventeen games. Marquis Brown fine as a
wide receiver three maybe, but I don't want to try
to predict the five good weeks he has on this
terrible offense. And then if nobody left zach Ertz Shelvi's
former self, I think he's going to start losing more
to Trey McBride. I mean, Rondell Moore. We want to
have happen. I love Michael Wilson down the road. I
(02:42):
think he's a very underrated wide receiver. But I think
that's more year two, three, four, whatever it might be.
But I'm looking at I don't I'm not drafting a
single Cardinals player. I don't know that we want to
start any of them this season. So you're not excited
about the Clayton Tune era beginning. I don't know devame
that tune.
Speaker 1 (02:58):
I know a lot of people will say, yeah, but
you're getting a discount on guys like Marquis Brown and
James Connor. So to Jake's point, I understand where he's at,
but the discount will be tempting. Do you feel like
it's a temptation you should stay away from. You're better
off taking shares of other backfields or other wide receiving
corps that you know, maybe less thrilling situations necessarily, but
because the offense potential could be anything better than the
(03:20):
Arizona Cardinals. Just stay away from these guys in general.
Speaker 3 (03:24):
Oh absolutely, I mean Marcus Brown is gonna get steamed
up the board. Now with DeAndre Hopkins gone, he's gonna
get steamed up. You're probably gonna see him in a
lot of different spots as a high end wide receiver three.
Some could rank him as a low end wide receiver two.
I get it. I'm kind of a little bit below that.
But James Connor is basically your classic dead zone back.
It's there's nobody else. It's a craptastic offense and we're
(03:47):
just betting on volume. How often does that work out? Well?
People like not very often. So I'm with Jake on
this one.
Speaker 1 (03:54):
All right, let's get to your number five. Take Debro,
what do you have?
Speaker 3 (03:57):
I am gonna go and again, I don't know how
this is, but apparently I'm looking at ECR and this
wide receiver is sitting at wide receiver forty seven. So
here we go. Quentin Johnson is going to be a
wide receiver to this season in Fantasy football. I have
him as wide wide receiver thirty one right now in
my ranks. Let's just start with the easy, low hanging
(04:19):
fruit here. Mike Williams. Since he's soon in the league,
this is his laundry list of ailments. Guys, A Hernie
a did disc knee strain, backspasms, hamstring strain, hip flexer,
ankle springs twice I'm getting word.
Speaker 1 (04:33):
We're going to run out of time if we keep
doing these things.
Speaker 3 (04:35):
It's hers process fracture. And again I could keep going
and going, but there you got enough to chew on there.
The idea of this is, if it's not Mike Williams
possibly missing a little bit of the time, maybe it's
Keenan Allen. Maybe it's both. There is an easy path
in what is probably going to be a top five
to ten pace and scoring offense for Quentin Johnson to
(04:55):
explode this year. And looking at his usage, I think
we you could get more Quinton Johnson in the slot
that anybody is prepared or ready for because you look
at how he fits into this offense. Keenan Allen is
not dust. If he is able to play the outside,
and I'm saying able and since like is he healthy,
then he performed well there. Last year he was twenty
(05:15):
second PFF grade as far as versus man coverage, top
twenty five in terms of yards per route run against
that coverage, so he could still win on the outside.
Quentin Johnson could eviscerate nickel corners. This man led all
FBS wide receivers last year with at least twenty five
targets in slot, yards per route run and yack per reception.
(05:36):
I'm in it, man, buying into good offenses and just
taking the cheapest part of it and watching Quinton Johnson explode.
Speaker 1 (05:43):
Yeah, I'm with you. I'm a very big supporter of
Quentin Johnson. Already have dynasty shares, but in terms of redraft,
I'm with you. I feel like there's going to be opportunity. Jake,
do you see that same pathway for Quinton Johnson this
year to be a guy that likes Derek saying not
only just pick up the workload that's abandoned by the injured,
oftentimes Mike Williams, but also just you know, this Charger
team wants to throw the football anyway, and at this stage,
(06:05):
you know, it seems like Quinton Johnson is certainly in
terms of health, in terms of talent, is right up
there in order to be a contributor.
Speaker 2 (06:13):
My concern is, I don't disagree like one is we're
obviously banking on injury, Like if somehow Mike Williams plays
sixteen games and Keenan Allen stays healthy, this is going
to be tough. We acknowledge that because like Tyler Boyd
was what forty something so that third wide receiver role.
But let's say Mike Williams gets hurt. My only concern
is that what does the Chargers think about Quentin Johnson
(06:34):
in his first year role? Because as de bro just said,
slot great can use that that's replacing Keenan Allen Josh Palmer.
They might be more comfortable similar last year using him
to replace Mike Williams, which we saw Josh Palmer's numbers
not very good when Keenan Allen went down. That's when
DeAndre Carter did things. So I'm just worried only about
the Chargers how confident they are in Johnston slash, Keenan
(06:55):
Allen slash, what their roles are going to be depending
on if Mike Williams gets hurt.
Speaker 1 (06:58):
All right, let's get if you my first five hot takes.
Number five on my list Elijah Moore now of the
Cleveland Browns, who was of the New York Jets. He
is ranked fifty first wide receiver and half PPR right now,
that is ridiculous. He is going to finish as a
top twenty four wide receiver. And here's why, because I
do believe that Deshaun Watson and the Browns will improve.
(07:21):
I know it was a very upsetting December last year.
Everybody thought it might be better for Deshaun Watson. It wasn't.
But I'm looking at the rest of this group, and
Amari Cooper certainly is going to be the focal point.
I understand people are excited about David and Joku, but
who was the other real wide receiver, especially considering that
they really don't have a great pass catching back in
this offense right now that you're going to point to
(07:42):
and say, oh yeah, there's we're going to be the
quick outs. There's what we're going to do. If it's
one thing Deshaun Watson has to do better this year
is get rid of the football quicker that was one
of the worst in the league you've seen in quite
some time in terms of his processing. That will return,
I believe, and when it does, I think Elijah Moore
is going to be the big beneficiary of that. Don't
sell me David Bell, don't sell me Donevo. People's Jones
contract is gonna expire soon. I want Elijah Moore, and
(08:02):
I think this is one of the lower, as Derek
Brounley say, lower hanging fruits out there where you could
pluck this guy off there and put him on your roster,
and I think the returns will be very good. Jake Seely,
is this a hot take? No, I'm all used both hands,
which I know you're in such excruciating pain to move
both gums at the same time. It's unbelievable.
Speaker 2 (08:24):
I love this one. I actually held on to Elijah
Moore and Dynasty in a lot of places because I
was hoping that the landing spot would be beneficial and
I do. I'm with you on this and the fact
that I think he profiles better for this team at
the two than Donovan People's Jones does. I think donin
People's jones you just pointed out if you want Watson
to get it out quicker, that's not People's jones game.
People's jones is getting downfield. People's jones is getting that
the bigger plays, which I think profile is better in
(08:45):
today's NFL as a wide receiver three, which, if you're
looking for it, Elijah Moore, we go back two years ago.
He was put up numbers with Zach Wilson and Mike White, Like,
let's be real about what he was doing, which is
why we were excited for him last year, which kind
of didn't happen. And it's funny you say this because
as soon as this trade happened, I actually tweeted similar
to that. I said, this is two wide receivers in
a row. They've stolen for cheap value, the Kooper and
(09:07):
now Elijah Moore.
Speaker 1 (09:08):
Yeah, good for them. All right, seely, let's get your
number four, hot take? What do you have?
Speaker 2 (09:12):
Number four?
Speaker 3 (09:13):
JK.
Speaker 2 (09:13):
Dobbins is an RB one. I'll even say top ten.
I am loving JK. Dobbins. I think people missed how
good he was down the stretch last year with the
volume he saw in the run game. Oh, by the way,
those role games without that Lamar Jackson dude playing quarterback,
those were the other shambles of quarterbacks playing back there.
And I look at the twenty plus carries and we
go back to mark Ingram for a few years ago.
(09:34):
I don't need much work in the passing game because
mark Ingram had had two hundred carries and because of
the touchdown equity, which I know everybody sits in the
industry and wants to say, don't predict touchdowns. Some cases
we can kind of predict touchdown equity, and the Baltimore
Ravens backfield is one of those cases.
Speaker 3 (09:49):
You give me two.
Speaker 2 (09:49):
Hundred and forty touches for JK. Dobbins, double digit touchdowns,
top ten finishes coming.
Speaker 1 (09:55):
I don't have to sell Derek Brown JK Dobbins, but
I'm sure they want to pile on here. Go ahead,
d I know you way to pay. Go ahead, give
us some more positive Dobbins reports here.
Speaker 3 (10:04):
Well, let's be real here. I was kind of pissed
off whenever I got to the to the outline and
Jake had already taken JK. Dobbins, because that was gonna
be one of my guys. I was loving this, man.
I love this take because if you look at what
Todd Monkin has done with his running back usage over
his final two seasons as an offensive coordinator, Peyton Barber
and Nick Chubb accounted for at least sixty eight percent
(10:24):
of the opportunities. So I feel like everybody is just
absolutely get the blinders on. They're like, oh, yeah, Greg
Rohman is gone, but we're still going to treat JK.
Dobbins like he still has Greg Roman there. I don't
think this backfield gets divided up into three different parts
or pieces. I don't even think it's really like two.
Speaker 1 (10:40):
I think JK.
Speaker 3 (10:41):
Dobbins is going to be their workhorse back this year.
Todd Monkin has that history, we know the talent, and
now the health is going to comply. Dobbins is going
to crush Man ru.
Speaker 1 (10:52):
And you know it's funny talking about JK. Dobbins Elijah Moore.
You know, guys have had very high expectations and all
of a sudden, all those expectations got lower to the
little bit year over year. But it's kind of like
a refresh right now on then for both of those guys.
And it's in Dynasty as well. So if you're looking
for the Dynasty content, we've got that for you. Fantasybros.
Dot Com slash Dynasty, don't forget because we've got all
the profiles, we got the trade targets. Probably some of
(11:14):
these guys we're talking about are going to be in
there more in depth position primers. Everything's in there and
it's at no cost, so again, go check it out.
It's free. Fantasy Rose dot com slash Dynasty and of course,
like everything else, when you're premium here you get even
more access. So go premium today, Fancy Bros dot Com
slash Premium, But go check out the Dynasty draft kit
and get yourself ready for all those Dynasty startups and
(11:35):
the redrafts and everything you got going on here, Debro,
give us another hot take here? What's your number four
on your list?
Speaker 3 (11:41):
Staying in Baltimore? Man, this is just a fruitful offense
that we're able to kind of pick off parts and
pieces that are too cheap. This year, Rashad Bateman will
finish as a wide receiver two in Fantasy the sample
that we got out of Bateman last year, and I'm
all in on Bateman.
Speaker 1 (11:55):
This year.
Speaker 3 (11:56):
We had four games, the guy all had almost a
twenty percent target share, thirty percent of the air yards
in Baltimore. And I get everybody sitting here building the
arguments in their head right now against Rashad Bateman as
I'm telling you all this, saying.
Speaker 1 (12:08):
All I'm doing them, I'm actively doing that. I just
want you to know Odell Beckham is there. He's a
washed version of himself.
Speaker 3 (12:15):
We saw that last when he was with the Rams,
fifteen percent target chair couldn't even eclipse one point three
yards per route run. And you have a rookie and
Zay Flowers who I like. But still we're going to
talk about prospect profiles. Raw talent, Bateman trumps him ten
times out of ten, and Bateman in that small sample
last year, we got to give this guy some credence.
Speaker 1 (12:35):
And I get it.
Speaker 3 (12:36):
Small samples, a full season of NFL action in its entirety,
it can still be talked about as a small sample.
So don't anybody come at me with a four game sample.
This is a indicator of talent. Rashad Bateman was fourth
and yards per route run over that sample, behind only
Tyreek Hill, Jalen Waddle, and AJ Brown. And he was
tied for first in YAK per reception with Deebo. Samuel
(13:00):
telling me, like, okay, now he's got to compete with
a wash Odell Beckham rookie for targets behind Mark Andrews.
I'm all in on Rashad Bateman. His price in all
drafts right now makes no freaking sense to me. I'm
I'm ready to ride the lightning with Rashad Bateman.
Speaker 1 (13:16):
This year. I was very much with you last year
with Rashad Bateman. Now, like many other people, we have
that you know, that turf burn from last year, which
might also be a Rashad Bateman injury if we look.
But you have all these you know issues where we
go back and look at for Shaw, Bateman, Jake, and
it's not a matter of talent, it is a matter
of health. And we haven't seen him on the field enough.
(13:36):
So Derek is saying, you know, don't come at me
with the small sample size, but he's kind of presenting
a small sample size in his argument. So which side
of the fence do you buy when it comes to
Rashad Bateman.
Speaker 2 (13:46):
I would love to be on the same side because
we just agreed on JK.
Speaker 1 (13:49):
Dobbins.
Speaker 2 (13:49):
But I am far on the other side. I like
there's hedges in the way, Like I can't even see
Derek over here. Like because I'm gonna give you a
name that has nothing to do with this team, Jesus
Smith Schuster last year wide receiver twenty seven behind Travis
Kelsey on Patrick Mahomes offense. I go back to Marki's brown,
even the two years that he led the Ravens didn't
even crack the top thirty five. So that's my problem
(14:11):
is I agree with Derek and the fact that Bateman
is the one and Save Flowers is the two, but
I feel like that's actually two and three behind Mark Andrews.
And unless Lamar Jackson has another MVP season that's still capped,
like that MVP season includes Marcus Brown that year, I
think finished in the forties as the leading wide receiver
quote unquote for the Ravens. So my concern is it's
(14:33):
just it's too much goodness real life for the Ravens.
Like I think having Odell Beckham, Flowers and Bateman is
going to be amazing for Lamar Jackson, but they're all
check in behind Mark Andrews. And that's my biggest concern.
It's just the share. They don't need to have a
go to.
Speaker 1 (14:47):
All right, let's talk about another wide receiver. My number four,
Rashie Rice, who is ranked right now, is the one
hundred and first wide receiver on Fantasy Pros and the ECR.
I think he's gonna be a top fifty wide receiver.
Now people would say, well, that's not a hot take.
I think it is because everyone keeps telling me about
it areas Tony whoever plays, And I like the talent
of sky Moore, but I'm trying to think of the
(15:08):
guy that I think fits their need the most. And
MVS is going to be there for a hot minute
and that he's going to be gone after this season too,
So what they really got to do is find the
next guy, or at least evaluate what they have on
their roster who that's going to be. And the one
caveat I will say is if DeAndre Hopkins, as of
recording this, we don't know where he's going. If he
ends up there, that would change the math a bit
(15:29):
for me. But right now, Rashie Rice, the more I
watch the tape, the more I go back and look
at him, the more you hear the early buzz out
of camp from Patrick Mahomes, how much he likes him
and how he performs and thinks like a veteran. Those
are very good comments to hear about a rookie. So
Derek Brown, let me put this to you. Last year,
you and I held hands. We ran through the garden
that was sky Moore together and we fell into a
(15:51):
well and we couldn't get back out of it. Are
we doing the same thing again with Roshie Rice or
am I doing it? At least?
Speaker 2 (15:57):
So you fell out of what you're telling me, Well,
we fell down.
Speaker 1 (16:02):
We couldn't get ourselves up. But you know what, maybe
it was just the wrong guy was the right concept.
But he does do a lot of the things that
you would you would look at what Juju did last
year in this offense. He does a lot of those things. Well.
So we had some games that once Juju kind of
got up to speed before he got hurt, he had
that stretch of two or three games and everything looked
like he was like, oh no, we're kind of moving
in a good direction. And then the injury happened and
it just took a while to get back on track
(16:23):
and it never really did. But is Rashie Rice the
guy didn't get it on track for the Chiefs.
Speaker 3 (16:28):
I think he is. I mean, if you look at it,
and I've talked about this since they drafted him, I
think that he is the Juju replacement. You look at
what Rashi Rice did in his prospect profile. He was
elite versus his own coverage last year. We're talking about
a guy that was top six and yards per run
against this coverage. So that and you marry that with
a skill set of over the last two years at SMU. Yes,
he played outside one year. He also was in the
(16:50):
slot the year prior to that. So we're talking about
a guy that can fit that mold of being versatile
and playing outside inside and Juju his calling card at
this point of his career is eating zone coverage. Okay, Well,
same thing for Rashid Rice, except he's a younger player
and there's room to maybe add some more tools to
the bag to be able to play the outside more. Yeah,
I think this is definitely pausible, Joe.
Speaker 1 (17:11):
Yeah. Pat fitz Morris has some great write ups on
a lot of the rookies and Raschie Rice.
Speaker 3 (17:14):
Two.
Speaker 1 (17:15):
He's got a Dynasty Startup Draft Primer group that he's
doing right now over on Fantasy Pro. So if you
haven't already seen that, go check it out, the Dynasty
Startup Draft Primer. So all those articles are Fantasypros dot Com.
And he's got right ups on all these guys that
we're talking about. Look, we're talking about Quentin Johnson, We're
talking about Roschie Rice, We're talking about these rookies in
redraft right now. So even if you don't play dynasty,
I think you want to get all the information you
(17:37):
can on these players because it feels very much I'm
sure Jake will attest to this too, like a big
transition year in the NFL, where after we get with
their first four or five rounds, it's kind of wide open.
Nobody kind of knows who's going to slide into some
of these better spots. It is really tough out there,
and the answer is probably going to be a lot
of rookies at the end of the day, Jake, let's
get to your third hot take. What do you have
for the audience?
Speaker 2 (17:58):
So number sixty seven currently at wide receivers, Alec Pierce
more than doubles his return as in finishing as a
top thirty wide receiver. I think that Alec Pierce the
stink of last year and the excitement for what he
could have been. There was flashes, we saw it, We
saw Alec Pearson what he brought to that team. But
I think the stink of the quarterback situation and what
that was for the entire year really ruined what Alec
(18:19):
Pierce could do. Also, the loss of johnth the Taylor
obviously killed that offense as well, but I think you're
looking at Richardson likely starting from day one, as a
lot of people assume, is that I think the profile
of what Pierce gives Richardson and Richardson's style. I think
Pittman is his number one, but Pierce's style will fit
Richardson going deeper at times. And if you look for
the yards or the air yards per target last year
(18:41):
right in line with Michael Pittman, but the yards per
reception was much higher for Alec Peers and that's what
I'm looking at here. I'm looking for the bigger plays
for Pierce might not be as consistent as Pittman. I
think the bigger plays and the touchdown upside that he
can bring. Still love Pittman top twenty to twenty five,
but I think Pierce is could be right on his
heels and that's going to shock a lot of people.
I think he's a great value this year.
Speaker 1 (19:02):
Deepro If Richardson is the Week one starter, though, we
imagine this offense is going to be very run heavy
and a lot of you know, read option kind of stuff.
That's what that's what my anticipation is. Does that far
not just Pittman, but pierced too, in terms of even
the volume that's that could be potentially out there for
him this year.
Speaker 3 (19:21):
Yeah, I mean that's my biggest concern as far as
just looking at receivers in that in that passing offense
is how much are they going to throw the ball?
But I think Jake lays out a path to success
for this as far as when he does get targeted,
it's going to be deep. So you're looking at the
splash plays and the long plays for the touchdowns carrying
him across that finish line. I guess, like my biggest
(19:44):
concern with that is the raw target volume, Like if
he gets eighty targets, but if he gets if you
push him like into a ninety ninety fives target range,
I think it's possible. It really comes down to, and
this is another part to Jake. Do you see Jake,
Like do you see Pittman and Pears garnering what sixties
(20:07):
fifty to sixty percent of the target share? They're an
indie low fifties. I think the tight ends are going
to not be as of all.
Speaker 1 (20:14):
As people hope they will.
Speaker 2 (20:15):
Like you're looking at what we expect Jallanning Woods to
be the lead. It's just it's kind of conglomeration, like
it used to be like, oh my gosh, they have
seventeen tight ends we like, and now it's like they
have seventeen tight ends.
Speaker 1 (20:25):
But we don't really like any of them.
Speaker 2 (20:27):
So I think we're going to get down to the
top two targets are going to be Pittman a Peers.
You are definitely warranted, similar to a Justin Fields, and
the volume might be tough, but I think the touchdown
and the big play upside can offset it all right, So.
Speaker 1 (20:39):
There you go. Let's get to your number three hot take.
Debro What do you Got?
Speaker 3 (20:43):
Started this on the Running Back episode and I was
fighting with Ericson for about an hour and a half,
and I'm going to continue it one because there's no
Ericson here to fight me back, although Jake and Joe
you might fight me on the way here. Travis Etn
is going to massively disappoint people and he is going
to finish as an RB three in Fantasy. Adam Stunner
I said, Travis Etn will finish as an RB three
(21:04):
and three RB three RB three And this all comes
down to last year, Travis Etn had the stranglehold on
volume the early down work. I think Tank Bigsby is
coming for that. I think that Tank Bigsby is going
to factor into the early down work and he is
going to factor into the red zone work here. I
(21:25):
get that he wasn't a second round pick, Joe. I
know you're coming with that, but he was a third
round pick. So we're not talking about four to fifth six.
Speaker 1 (21:31):
I'm not wish casting a seventh round pick.
Speaker 3 (21:33):
And yeah, but if you look at Travis Etn's production
last year, and I'll laid this out on last episode,
but I'm going to rehash it again because again people,
if you're tuning into this, you're looking for the hot takes.
Back this up man, Travis Etn did not have a
pass game er last year. He was thirty first in
targets year, couldn't even surpass eight percent of the targets
(21:53):
in Jacksonville. Now, Calvin really is stepping in, and unless,
like we're talking about with Ericson, we're wish casting injuries
upon this offense, I don't see that his target share
is going to go up. He was thirty six yards
per route run, forty second in PFF's receiving grade. And
he was one of the worst running backs in the
red zone last year, fifty seventh in red zone touchdown
conversion rate. So if Travis Etn loses some of the
(22:16):
early down work, which last year he basically was just
an early down grinder because he had nothing in the
passing game, and he loses the red zone work, we
are talking about a back that is going to operate
in between the twenties, not get targets, and this offense
is built to run through the passing game people. After
(22:36):
Trevor Lawrence took off after week nine, they were top
twelve and both red zone passing rate and neutral script
passing rate. This offense is not going to be driven
and predicated by the run game. So if that backfield
gets split in half, Etn does not get targets and
does not and gets his touchdown chair cut, he is
going to massively disappoint people in fantasy and they are
(22:59):
going to be crying into their pillows all the way Internet.
Speaker 1 (23:02):
And Jake Seeley, I will say, Derek Brown did bring
the receipts here to back this up. So are you
buying this here? I mean, this is a huge drop
off considering if he stays healthy enough to play is
that's not part of this caveat. It's not about health,
it's about performances about the offense. Now, look, the one
thing Ericson did bring up was they were the healthiest
team last year in the NFL, and that is not
something you can expect every year. So Jake Levis atn
(23:26):
giant disappointment RB.
Speaker 2 (23:27):
Three playing a lot of is all the cooking pots.
Speaker 1 (23:31):
Not RB three overall n RB three just in case
people are not hearing it properly, Okay, go ahead.
Speaker 2 (23:36):
If he would have said mid low RB two, I
couldn't even gotten bored. The only like he might not
be wrong, but the only thing I think in my head,
and I even checked myself to make sure I wasn't crazy.
Devin Singletary finished is RB two last year. That's why,
like I'm thinking of I was going through his arguments
and saying, like touches two hundred total, like maybe thirty
reception one hundred and seventy carries, And I was going
(23:58):
through and I'm like, you know, that feels like Devin's
did he even get top twenty four last year? And
he did so the touchdown equity would be the one
thing that really kills him, Like he only had five
all rushing, zero in the passing game. Does he still
get five, six, seven, or eight? Like if he doesn't
and he falls to three, he's gonna nail this and
he's gonna look like a genius. But I just if
Singletary is the floor, I'm kind of like he's still
(24:19):
gonna sneak inside the top.
Speaker 1 (24:20):
Twenty four number three For me, I'm gonna go to
the Houston Texans for this next one. Everyone keeps telling
me about Nico Collins, this guy and that guy. I
watched the guy at Alabama move the change for a
team that was really good, and the guy then they
needed a first down, the guy who in the go
to spots, the guy who made the big plays wasn't
(24:43):
necessarily John Metchi, but the guy that when you needed
to catch the football and make things happen on a
regular basis and be the guy was John Metchi. And
I understand obviously the cancer diagnosis last year was a
horrible thing. He's worked his way back. All the reports
are still very good. Now. We don't know what kind
of lingering effects that's going to have, and that is
all fair, But I'm just gonna go on a limb here,
(25:05):
and I'm gonna go with the guy I think is
the best talent, especially for a young quarterback, the guy
who I think is going to be the better route runner.
The guy's going to play in the slot, and the
slot targets are really what you want right now out
of this offense, because it's still an offense that's going
to be limited in some ways even with c. J. Stroud,
and it is John Metchi, so I think he's going
to lead the Texans and receiving yards in twenty twenty three.
That is my hot take. Jake Seey, what do you
(25:25):
think about this one? You're gonna go in John mitw
You like it?
Speaker 3 (25:29):
Okay?
Speaker 2 (25:29):
I like John Mitchi as a rookie before the whole diagnosis.
As you said, I thought basically after the draft when
they brought him in, I said, this is a perfect
compliment to Brandon Cooks and what they need and need
somebody reliable who knows how to get open every single play,
and that this is perfect. And you've brought it up
like if you're looking at Nico Collins, he's discount Will Fuller.
Let's be honest. That's just like the role that it
(25:50):
brings to this Kay, So like I think that MATCHI
leading this team in receptions is more than easy enough
to do, especially with no Brandon Cooks. Now the only
thing holding him back is what's the state I am
in a level lest that, Like you know, I'm thinking
like Roman reigns and wrestling, like and just bring up wrestling,
but like similar to that, like is he gonna have
Like this time off seems to be long enough that
we hope that he's one hundred percent, but like what
(26:11):
is his staminy is going to be out there ninety
percent of the snaps everything like that? If he is
with CJ. Strout, Let's not forget how good c J.
Stroud is. Is the pip, Like if you talk about the
three main rookie, we.
Speaker 1 (26:21):
Don't have to sell this que guys right here about.
Speaker 2 (26:24):
The campastor of the three, Like he's the one that
should step in and like he'll probably be the lowest
fantasy for our purposes this year, but for accuracy and
needing a match he type. I think that's a perfect
fit between the two.
Speaker 1 (26:36):
All Right, there you go. I always waited my whole
life for Jake Seely to give me validation got it
on this show. Finally, we'll see how the rest of
the show goes. All right, number two, I know.
Speaker 2 (26:46):
You're gonna take that. I'm wearing a Mets shut. You
got to check your question my judgment.
Speaker 1 (26:49):
Come on, Oh well the judgment, yes, but your validation
that's a different thing. All right, let's get to your
number two hot take. What do you have, Ceely.
Speaker 2 (26:56):
I'm gonna hot take it up from what I originally
put in the sheet. I'm gonna even go five spots higher.
Brandon Cooks returns to top twenty. Top twenty wide receiver
actually looked and last year was the first time and
forever he hasn't finished this a top twenty five. But
let's say go back to top twenty.
Speaker 1 (27:10):
I know Michael's on the show, bro Is that is.
Speaker 2 (27:15):
Semi but look about you.
Speaker 1 (27:18):
I take back immediately.
Speaker 2 (27:19):
Now he wants to run a billion times. Look, he's
gonna be happy if you know Tony Poller gets thirty
carries for sixty yards and they win a game because
that's mich McCarthy. But at the same time, they need
to be realistic. They need to get back to the
Dak Prescott offense. Where there's some balance in the passing game.
And for whatever it has been said about Michael Gallup,
Michael Gallup is fine, but he's not a number two.
(27:39):
He's a three. He's similar to we were just talking
about the other wide receivers we've been having in this
conversation so far. Brandon Cooks is not done. Bringan Cooks
is in thirty.
Speaker 3 (27:47):
Like, let's go on and see the.
Speaker 2 (27:49):
Fact of what Brandon Cooks has been able to do
and piece together. Like I feel like this is the
crutch argument. It's easy to say, but he feels like
the new Allen Robinson, Like look at all the trash
he's dealt with, but at least like like Alan Robinson,
their body style and their play style, He's not done yet.
Like Alan Robinson fell off the cliff and disappeared, Brandon
cook still has a lot left and playing with Dak
Prescott in this offense, he's back to Top twenty.
Speaker 1 (28:10):
I love the Brandon Cooks call. I'm with you on
this one too. It's a little spicy, but I like
especially Top twenty. You really pushing it. Yeah, de bro,
let's push another one for you. Wh'is your number two?
Speaker 3 (28:21):
I don't think this is hot and spicy. But apparently
every time I mentioned his name out in the Twitter streets,
apparently everybody wish casts and pulls out their crystal balls
and thinks they could just forecasting money and wish casting.
Speaker 1 (28:32):
Because you mentioned it several times, I get an investment.
Speaker 2 (28:37):
She's playing password on the side that we don't know about.
Speaker 1 (28:40):
Yeah, fo l okay.
Speaker 3 (28:42):
So if you, if you care to come buy this
from me, well happily.
Speaker 2 (28:46):
Wish casting dot com five dollars, ten dollars, I'll give
it you, Terarred Brown in a wizard hat.
Speaker 1 (28:51):
It's an amazing landed page, so good.
Speaker 3 (28:55):
Don't even start that because now that's gonna be the well.
Speaker 1 (28:57):
You did just come from the ren fank you again.
I know that.
Speaker 3 (28:59):
Thanks, Well, you know what, that's fair as well. Darren
Waller will be the tight end two in Fantasy and
compete on the heels of Travis Kelcey for the number
one spot. I love Darren Waller. This year and the
last time we saw Darren Waller surrounded by a bunch
of Beta wide receivers, what did you do? He crushed
everybody in Fantasy. He was first in raw targets, first
(29:23):
and target share, second in targets per route run tight
end two, and fantasy points per game. And now everybody's
saying he's not healthy, he's washed, he's terrible. Well that's
wrong because last year the man was thirteenth in PFF
receiving grade, twelfth in yards per route run and he
led all tight ends. And I get it's a small
sample because he wasn't healthy for the entire year. Let
(29:44):
all tight ends and yards per rout run against man coverage.
And if you go look at the numbers about the
guys that are the top of that leader board, it's
all of the people that end up near the top
of the leaderboard and fantasy points scored amongst tight ends.
Darren Waller has a clear and an amazing path to
absolutely crush in fantasy this year. Everybody's sitting here, give
(30:05):
him the injury discount. I'm not gonna do it. He
is my tight end two in my ranks right now.
So I don't think this is bold, but apparently consensus
does well.
Speaker 1 (30:15):
Jake Seee, I already know you're a self loathing Mets fan,
but the other thing I know about you is you're
a self loathing Giants fan. Also so that being says
there a better chance that he finishes as the tight
end two or just plays two games all year.
Speaker 2 (30:28):
I think there's actually a better chance if you would
have went in the fact that Dgnal Jones can't sustain
a tight end two. That's what it comes down to.
So that's the hating Giants fan. It's like, I'm stuck
with this quarterback forty million a year, so that all.
Speaker 3 (30:39):
I that's all, that's all details.
Speaker 2 (30:43):
I think there's the path for it, like if he
is the Travis Kelce to their offense, if he is
the one that gets one hundred and ten hundred and
twenty targets. My issue, my like concern is that, well
Daniel Jones turned to him that often. Is it gonna
be Wandell, Is it gonna be highat Is it gonna
be Sternly Shepherd for two games? Is it going to
be Slayton and all the rest of the eighteen billion
(31:04):
options that they have, And they're kind of creating this
team of let's everybody slant all over the place, And
that's my concern. So I actually think Debro's spot on
with what should happen. I just don't know if I
trust Daniel Jones to make it happen.
Speaker 1 (31:18):
Fair enough, All right, let's get to the next one
on my list, nine number two. Jamiir Gibbs, who's being
drafted right now as RB nineteen, is going to finish
as an RB one. So again, it's up too many
spots to jump, But I want to throw this out
there because people keep telling me, well, David Montgomery's there
and he's gonna handle lot of the goal line work
and all that fun stuff. And people will point to
last year with Jamal Williams getting as much work as
(31:40):
he did, as many touchdowns as he did, to which
I say that was because of the necessity of they
didn't have DeAndre Swift being DeAndre Swift that they wanted
DeAndre Swift to be. And if you can follow that logic,
stick with me, because I do believe that Jamiir Gibbs
is exactly the DeAndre Swift that they wanted DeAndre Swift
to be. In fact, he's a much better version of
what that plan was, and now all they have to
(32:01):
do is implement it. So kind of like Jake's earlier
comment about Alex Pierce about the quality of the volume
and all these things, going on. He's gonna get the quantity,
he's gonna get the quality. I know David Montgomery is
still there, and yes it will be some early down
work to him, but we all know the running back
that we want in fantasy is the one that catches
the ball and the one has explosiveness, and David Montgomery's
game in explosiveness. So, Derek Brown, are you with me
(32:22):
here in our friend Jamiir Gibbs being an RB one
this year because I am ready for it.
Speaker 3 (32:28):
I think it's possible. I definitely do. I think that
if you see Gibbs eat into the and this is
the biggest worry for me with Gibbs is can he
get enough of the red zone scoring opportunities? Can he
eat into those opportunities inside the twenty, inside the ten?
And honestly, Joe, I mean I'm gonna push back a
little bit.
Speaker 1 (32:48):
I feel like you should.
Speaker 3 (32:49):
You could have gone Boulder with this top eight, top ten.
I mean, I don't know. Maybe I'm asking you to
turn up the heat here a little bit because I
could see this happening all right.
Speaker 1 (32:58):
Top ten boom didn't take much convincing there, Yeah, that
was I don't care. Look I'm just telling you right now,
I just you look at what the Lions did and
the fact that they were so aggressive on him, it
tells me that that's the guy they wanted, That's the
guy they were not going to let slip out of
their fingers. And look, kudos to them for being aggressive
of getting him. The draft night, we all kind of
made our jokes, but at the end of the day,
(33:19):
you look back at their draft. They got the players
they needed. The order doesn't matter, nobody cares. After a
certain point in time, all the matters. Did you get
the guys you needed to go compete and you started
to look around that division. Now, Vikings defense is very good,
Bears defense is work in progress. I don't think anybody's
afraid of the Packers just saying to me, this is
wide open for Jamior Gibbs.
Speaker 2 (33:38):
Let's say top ten, top ten, I think, but top
ten actually makes it a little bit disier because I
comped into Alvin Kamara and the seasons where he didn't
have a billion rushing touchdowns. He was just on the
borderline of being RB one those two other seasons, and
I think that's kind of what the expectancy should be
that's exactly just I worry about Dan Campbell knucking it
up with like eating dog children or what any well,
(34:00):
what everything does.
Speaker 1 (34:01):
But you know what I think, Jake, I think everybody's
looking too hard at the Jamal Williams twenty twenty two.
Instead of saying to the point of saying, but they are,
they're trying to say, Oh, that's gonna be the copy
and paste year over year, Like no, it's not. Last
year was a byproduct of not having Swift be the
guy that they wanted him to be in the style
of offense. They needed this to be, especially with six
weeks of not having Jameson Williams around two. All right,
(34:21):
Derek Brown, let's get to your number one, and then
we'll get to Jake's and we'll get to mine, because
Jakes and mine are intertwined, just like our lives have
been for the last ten years.
Speaker 3 (34:29):
Go ahead, Well, I'll let y'all fight it out like
a merry couple here in a second.
Speaker 1 (34:33):
But that's what we do best.
Speaker 3 (34:34):
That exactly I I'm diving into this ambiguous backfield. I
know that people are worried about Damien Harris, and they're
worried about Olatavious Murray. I'm just gonna go with the talent,
and I think the most talented back that could play
on early downs and the passing game, James Cook is
gonna have a breakout season. He's gona be a top
twenty four running back in fantasy. And if you look
at what he did last year unlimited touches, he was
(34:57):
twenty eighth yards of contact per attempt. The man was
first in breakaway percentage. So we're talking about big plays.
I'm not telling you that James Cook is going to
be a fifteen to twenty carry guy a game. Can
he be a fifteen touch player a game? Fifteen touches,
that's all we're asking for through the passing game and
early downs. I think that is definitely possible. And you
(35:18):
look at he was nineteenth at PFF lucid rating. He
lapped Damien Harris in that metric. He was almost double him.
Fifteenth in yards per route run. We've seen Jake brought
up Devin Singletary, the Jag of all Jags producing in
this backfield over the last few years, RB thirty, RB
twenty four in Fantasy points per game. Now we're air dropping.
(35:38):
We got James Cook and he can take over a backfield,
or at least enough to the sense of Devin Singletary
did that both with less talent and hovering around a
fifty eight percent opportunity share. You're telling me that James Cook,
who was a more explosive player, because Devin Singletary does
not know what a home run is on the NFL field,
(36:00):
James Cook can break off those home run plays with
a fifty percent opportunity share. And the touchdowns even I'm
not telling you top of the line touchdowns. He sneaks
in and he breaks off a few long touchdowns that
mary with the passing game. Yes, he can absolutely do this.
Speaker 1 (36:15):
All right, Jake, you are the Cara top of the
fantasy industry. I know you've got lots of Prompsey. So
you have to hold that up a little higher on
the YouTube channel, closer to your face. Now, that is
a is a rainbow poop, Unicorn poop with the unicorn
poop so sound effects too. So I guess you're not
buying the James Cook that deep broa.
Speaker 3 (36:33):
Because it's unicorn poop.
Speaker 2 (36:35):
So I have two poops and you just pulled out
a unicorn poop. It's not full poop because you kind
of made it rainbows and shiny. If you want to
go bull, James Cook should be RB one or top
fifteen in the medium because you just brought up seventh
singletary my pushback. Initially, I didn't see you said top
twenty four. I was gonna be like, look, you just
argued against Travis Etn. I'll do the same thing for
James Cook. I actually do think Jamian Harris is going
to take away too many first downs, but particularly the
(36:56):
goal line, which was his heyday at the Patriots. So
I'm worried about the touchdown equity for James Cook, who
I think is very much like Dravis Etn, should be
used more in the passing game, like James Cook will
be that. I'll say, top twenty four doesn't feel that
bold for me, so I can get on board.
Speaker 1 (37:10):
That's that.
Speaker 2 (37:11):
That's why it's unicorn poop. I can get on board.
You made it sound really rosy, but you didn't make
it that great.
Speaker 3 (37:15):
You made it too because what you're telling me, I
need to stir and increase to eat like I was,
all right, top fifteen.
Speaker 1 (37:22):
All right, there we go. We turned out, you know,
of all the things I thought we would talk about today.
Unicorn poop was not on my list. I have to
say I did not think that's where we're going to
get to.
Speaker 3 (37:29):
But I do love where we are, the fart sounder
and and the fact that we have these high end
picture You bring in a high quality guest for this
show to really raise the bar that he brings.
Speaker 1 (37:41):
Seriously, this is what I thought I got far season
and unicorn poop props here on the show, Jake Seally,
why don't you give us your number one hot take here?
H for the twenty twenty three fantasy season? What do
you got, buddy?
Speaker 2 (37:57):
So it's everybody's favorite darling this year. He's not only
going to not be top five at running back, Bijon
Robinson won't be a top ten running back. I'm going
to reference early in this show when I brought up
the bottom ten offense, and I'm going to the fact
that I love Bejon Robinson.
Speaker 3 (38:12):
You know my problem.
Speaker 1 (38:13):
You know if you did, you wouldn't even be saying
sat here.
Speaker 2 (38:17):
If he's Nick Chubb, people are going to be a
static because look at the line that Nick Chubb put up.
The concern and why I bring up Nick Chubb is
because I don't know if the usage in the passing
game is going to be there, not because of Bijon,
but because of the offense, the offensive style. Desmond Ritter,
who I actually do like, I don't think is going
to throw the running back they haven't got rid of
Cordela Patterson. I think Tyler a year is done for
(38:39):
it being involved, but he's going to be involved enough
to just take away a few carries per week. And
I go back to the touchdown equity, and I bring
up a good friend of ours, at least mine, who
I think is undervalued this year. Najee Harris last year,
on almost three hundred and fifty touches, did not finish
as the top twelve running back. I don't know that
Jon Robinson gets the top twelve because of the team
that he's one offensive line though the Steelers run offensive
(39:02):
line at Because I know what you're ready, I want
to know. Naj Harris one thousand yards and two hundred
and seventy carries, I think that could be very much
what b Jon Robinson does on this offense, even with
the better offensive line, just because of what the offense
is going to be. That's my biggest concern is that
the Falcons' is not.
Speaker 1 (39:18):
B Jon Robinson Brown one fight, all right, So my
number one, obviously and is has to do with b
Jehon Robinson and Jake. You know, I used to think
that your take on Diehard not being a Christmas movie
was the dumbest thing that ever came out of your mouth.
But but now now we have this today because b
Jon Robinson is going to be the RB one and
half point PPR in twenty twenty three. That's right, because
(39:41):
he is a great route runner. He can actually line
up in the slot. Okay, that's something Nick Chubb didn't
do ever. Okay, that stuffs not happening. So when it
comes to be John Robinson and the Falcons in general,
this concern about four hundred year old Cordell Patterson is
not a concern. Tyler Aljier was only Tyler out year
because that offensive line was really good at running the football.
(40:03):
And now, yes, was out of necessity, but it's also
the plan. It's also how Arthur Smith is building this team.
And let's not forget too that they also have drafted
in the last three years the best tight end prospect,
arguably one of the best wide receiver prospects and now
the best running back prospect. Desmond Ridder just has to
manage this. Desmon ridd is a smart kid. So one
thing you say about Desmond Ritter, he has to be
a technician at quarterback. He has to be what Ryan
Tannehill was for the Tennessee Titans at quarterback for this
(40:26):
to be a successful offense. And I am over the
moon about the talent of Bijon. And it's not because
he's a rookie. It's not because of all these other things.
But if you look at the need for this offense
because of the young quarterback, if you look at the
way this team is built, the coaching staff, the philosophy,
the versatility, all these things that Bejeon Robinson brings to
the table. He is going to be the Atlanta Falcons offense.
(40:48):
And that is something that I want, the quality, the quantity,
I want it all. I want all the Bijon. He's
going to be number one. Jake, Seely, it's so much
fun to be on opposite ends for you, And this
is why you and I always have so much fun together.
And I can't wait to have you back here at
the end of the year when Jon Robinson is at
the top of the mountain and I want to know,
(41:08):
will you issue a formal apology to BI Sean.
Speaker 2 (41:12):
I certainly will, but it's not gonna.
Speaker 1 (41:14):
Will you write it out with one hand, because that's
all you have. I want you to write it out.
Speaker 2 (41:17):
We'll write it out now with one hand. I can
say it since I haven't, but it's gonna say I was.
Speaker 3 (41:23):
And haven't actually written out. So that's well.
Speaker 1 (41:26):
Again, these are the hot takes we want to hear yours.
Drop them in the comments below here on the YouTube
channel because it's fun so we can all debate them.
Speaker 2 (41:32):
So hot at RB seven, but that's still far off
from RB one.
Speaker 1 (41:36):
It's it's not high enough. It's not enough respect for
Jon Robinson, and you don't like that has been ridden enough.
You don't like the Falcons enough. And any concern about
Bjon Robinson not being great because a Corderoll, Frickin Patterson
or Tyler lg or anybody else that's.
Speaker 2 (41:52):
Around them wound to target volume. I don't think he's
gonna get foury targets.
Speaker 1 (41:56):
Listen, the last time we had an RB in the
NFL draft, Jake High with Saquon Barkley. So we things
have changed, and what did Barkley do? He was RB
two that year team that in the passing game. I
will state that today that's not a hot take.
Speaker 3 (42:12):
He ain't that far. I'm sorry, he is that far.
Speaker 2 (42:16):
He's got gap is not as far as people want
to make it.
Speaker 3 (42:20):
I can't push Bijon down that far when he landed
with a team that was first and rushing rate and
first in red zone rushing rate last year.
Speaker 1 (42:28):
Touchdowns, Oh good, this whole forty minutes on v Jon Robinson.
But we're not going to Jake Seally everybody. He's the best.
He's my friend. He should be your friend too. Follow
him on Twitter at all in kid. Check out his
amazing work at the Athletic Jake. It's always fun to
have you on the program and talk football with you,
even when you're wrong about things that you say. And
(42:48):
if you want to see about people who are right
about things that they say, make sure you head over
and check out our amazing Dynasty content because we've got
fantasypros dot Com Slash Dynasty Draft.
Speaker 3 (42:56):
Kit is open now. It's free, go check it out.
Speaker 1 (42:59):
Pat fitz Morris always write ups on fantasypros dot com,
the startup draft primer, all the articles, the tight end
one just drops, so go check all that out too
at Fantasy Pros. That'll do it for us, but the
story of the game goes on for Debro and Jake Seely,
I'm Joey P. We'll see you next time. Kids. Thanks
for listening to the Fantasy Pros Football Podcast. Follow us
(43:19):
on Twitter and Instagram at Fantasy Pros, and subscribe to
our YouTube channel at YouTube dot com slash Fantasy Pros.
Welcome in everybody to Fantasy Pros. This is the Fantasy
Football podcast. It has being Joey Paid Joe Piezapia and
today it's time for some early hot takes. That's right,
We're gonna get spicy on today's show and give you
some of our fun and exciting takes on the upcoming
fantasy season. Of course, Debro Derek Brown, the King of Bros,
Will join me. And the answer to the question who
(00:22):
did it? It was the One Armed Man. If you're
watching on the YouTube channel, you know this, it's Jake
Seely and again if you haven't subscribed to Fantasy Pros
YouTube so you can see it. Jake and I for
many years did a radio show together and on Tuesdays
we used to do Hot Take Tuesday. So Jake, this
is kind of a fun little way back machine for
you and I. Isn't that nice?
Speaker 2 (00:42):
When you said that hot day, I was like, where
do I know?
Speaker 1 (00:43):
Oh?
Speaker 2 (00:43):
Yeah, the award winning the award winning show, which you
accepted in the award for.
Speaker 1 (00:49):
I get accept it. Well, you know, somebody's got to
do the dirty work at the end of the day,
and yet I don't have the award. Again, it went
to the net one.
Speaker 3 (00:56):
What was the awarding?
Speaker 1 (00:57):
We won an FSGA Radio Show of the Year.
Speaker 2 (01:01):
And then I wasn't there and he held it up
underneath a picture of me.
Speaker 1 (01:05):
So yes, So this was like, Jake was there. This
is what friends are for. Everybody, This is what friends
are for. And hopefully everybody have fun Moorial Day weekend.
And now we're back to the grind, all of us.
But we are certainly happy to be here in that grind.
And of course let's just kick things off. Let's just
start the takes. Let's get go, and Jakeson's you're the guest,
(01:26):
and I know you know typing other things are hard
for you. I want to give you plenty of time
for the rest of the day now to do the
other things you have to do. So let's start with
your number five hot take for the fantasy football season.
Upcoming hot take.
Speaker 2 (01:39):
Hot take, I don't know how that spicy. This is
the funny thing was I was going through these because
you said you want the good ones, and I was
doing the show all in football and I said, Sam
Howell outperforms Canny Pickett and they're like, that's not even hot.
I was like, so I had to come a little
bit spicier, and I don't even know what this one is.
This is why it's five and not one. But Arizona
Cardinals are not only the worst team in the league.
Speaker 3 (01:58):
We don't want to.
Speaker 2 (01:59):
Start any of their plays in fantasy, and I include
Marquis Brown and James Connor. I think that if you're
looking back, we know as fantasy pros on this show
is what we go back to. The late Mike Taglieier,
who wrote the article about a top ten running back
on a bottom ten offense doesn't happen. I think it'd
be even worse than that. Colt McCoy. I don't even
know Kyler Murray plays this year, because what do you
do come back to a two and nine team. There's
(02:20):
no point. So no James Connor because the touchdown equity
won't be there for how eliminated his touches are now
and not playing seventeen games. Marquis Brown fine as a
wide receiver three maybe, but I don't want to try
to predict the five good weeks he has on this
terrible offense. And then if nobody left zach Ertz Shelvi's
former self, I think he's going to start losing more
to Trey McBride. I mean, Rondell Moore. We want to
have happen. I love Michael Wilson down the road. I
(02:42):
think he's a very underrated wide receiver. But I think
that's more year two, three, four, whatever it might be.
But I'm looking at I don't I'm not drafting a
single Cardinals player. I don't know that we want to
start any of them this season. So you're not excited
about the Clayton Tune era beginning. I don't know devame
that tune.
Speaker 1 (02:58):
I know a lot of people will say, yeah, but
you're getting a discount on guys like Marquis Brown and
James Connor. So to Jake's point, I understand where he's at,
but the discount will be tempting. Do you feel like
it's a temptation you should stay away from. You're better
off taking shares of other backfields or other wide receiving
corps that you know, maybe less thrilling situations necessarily, but
because the offense potential could be anything better than the
(03:20):
Arizona Cardinals. Just stay away from these guys in general.
Speaker 3 (03:24):
Oh absolutely, I mean Marcus Brown is gonna get steamed
up the board. Now with DeAndre Hopkins gone, he's gonna
get steamed up. You're probably gonna see him in a
lot of different spots as a high end wide receiver three.
Some could rank him as a low end wide receiver two.
I get it. I'm kind of a little bit below that.
But James Connor is basically your classic dead zone back.
It's there's nobody else. It's a craptastic offense and we're
(03:47):
just betting on volume. How often does that work out? Well?
People like not very often. So I'm with Jake on
this one.
Speaker 1 (03:54):
All right, let's get to your number five. Take Debro,
what do you have?
Speaker 3 (03:57):
I am gonna go and again, I don't know how
this is, but apparently I'm looking at ECR and this
wide receiver is sitting at wide receiver forty seven. So
here we go. Quentin Johnson is going to be a
wide receiver to this season in Fantasy football. I have
him as wide wide receiver thirty one right now in
my ranks. Let's just start with the easy, low hanging
(04:19):
fruit here. Mike Williams. Since he's soon in the league,
this is his laundry list of ailments. Guys, A Hernie
a did disc knee strain, backspasms, hamstring strain, hip flexer,
ankle springs twice I'm getting word.
Speaker 1 (04:33):
We're going to run out of time if we keep
doing these things.
Speaker 3 (04:35):
It's hers process fracture. And again I could keep going
and going, but there you got enough to chew on there.
The idea of this is, if it's not Mike Williams
possibly missing a little bit of the time, maybe it's
Keenan Allen. Maybe it's both. There is an easy path
in what is probably going to be a top five
to ten pace and scoring offense for Quentin Johnson to
(04:55):
explode this year. And looking at his usage, I think
we you could get more Quinton Johnson in the slot
that anybody is prepared or ready for because you look
at how he fits into this offense. Keenan Allen is
not dust. If he is able to play the outside,
and I'm saying able and since like is he healthy,
then he performed well there. Last year he was twenty
(05:15):
second PFF grade as far as versus man coverage, top
twenty five in terms of yards per route run against
that coverage, so he could still win on the outside.
Quentin Johnson could eviscerate nickel corners. This man led all
FBS wide receivers last year with at least twenty five
targets in slot, yards per route run and yack per reception.
(05:36):
I'm in it, man, buying into good offenses and just
taking the cheapest part of it and watching Quinton Johnson explode.
Speaker 1 (05:43):
Yeah, I'm with you. I'm a very big supporter of
Quentin Johnson. Already have dynasty shares, but in terms of redraft,
I'm with you. I feel like there's going to be opportunity. Jake,
do you see that same pathway for Quinton Johnson this
year to be a guy that likes Derek saying not
only just pick up the workload that's abandoned by the injured,
oftentimes Mike Williams, but also just you know, this Charger
team wants to throw the football anyway, and at this stage,
(06:05):
you know, it seems like Quinton Johnson is certainly in
terms of health, in terms of talent, is right up
there in order to be a contributor.
Speaker 2 (06:13):
My concern is, I don't disagree like one is we're
obviously banking on injury, Like if somehow Mike Williams plays
sixteen games and Keenan Allen stays healthy, this is going
to be tough. We acknowledge that because like Tyler Boyd
was what forty something so that third wide receiver role.
But let's say Mike Williams gets hurt. My only concern
is that what does the Chargers think about Quentin Johnson
(06:34):
in his first year role? Because as de bro just said,
slot great can use that that's replacing Keenan Allen Josh Palmer.
They might be more comfortable similar last year using him
to replace Mike Williams, which we saw Josh Palmer's numbers
not very good when Keenan Allen went down. That's when
DeAndre Carter did things. So I'm just worried only about
the Chargers how confident they are in Johnston slash, Keenan
(06:55):
Allen slash, what their roles are going to be depending
on if Mike Williams gets hurt.
Speaker 1 (06:58):
All right, let's get if you my first five hot takes.
Number five on my list Elijah Moore now of the
Cleveland Browns, who was of the New York Jets. He
is ranked fifty first wide receiver and half PPR right now,
that is ridiculous. He is going to finish as a
top twenty four wide receiver. And here's why, because I
do believe that Deshaun Watson and the Browns will improve.
(07:21):
I know it was a very upsetting December last year.
Everybody thought it might be better for Deshaun Watson. It wasn't.
But I'm looking at the rest of this group, and
Amari Cooper certainly is going to be the focal point.
I understand people are excited about David and Joku, but
who was the other real wide receiver, especially considering that
they really don't have a great pass catching back in
this offense right now that you're going to point to
(07:42):
and say, oh yeah, there's we're going to be the
quick outs. There's what we're going to do. If it's
one thing Deshaun Watson has to do better this year
is get rid of the football quicker that was one
of the worst in the league you've seen in quite
some time in terms of his processing. That will return,
I believe, and when it does, I think Elijah Moore
is going to be the big beneficiary of that. Don't
sell me David Bell, don't sell me Donevo. People's Jones
contract is gonna expire soon. I want Elijah Moore, and
(08:02):
I think this is one of the lower, as Derek
Brounley say, lower hanging fruits out there where you could
pluck this guy off there and put him on your roster,
and I think the returns will be very good. Jake Seely,
is this a hot take? No, I'm all used both hands,
which I know you're in such excruciating pain to move
both gums at the same time. It's unbelievable.
Speaker 2 (08:24):
I love this one. I actually held on to Elijah
Moore and Dynasty in a lot of places because I
was hoping that the landing spot would be beneficial and
I do. I'm with you on this and the fact
that I think he profiles better for this team at
the two than Donovan People's Jones does. I think donin
People's jones you just pointed out if you want Watson
to get it out quicker, that's not People's jones game.
People's jones is getting downfield. People's jones is getting that
the bigger plays, which I think profile is better in
(08:45):
today's NFL as a wide receiver three, which, if you're
looking for it, Elijah Moore, we go back two years ago.
He was put up numbers with Zach Wilson and Mike White, Like,
let's be real about what he was doing, which is
why we were excited for him last year, which kind
of didn't happen. And it's funny you say this because
as soon as this trade happened, I actually tweeted similar
to that. I said, this is two wide receivers in
a row. They've stolen for cheap value, the Kooper and
(09:07):
now Elijah Moore.
Speaker 1 (09:08):
Yeah, good for them. All right, seely, let's get your
number four, hot take? What do you have?
Speaker 2 (09:12):
Number four?
Speaker 3 (09:13):
JK.
Speaker 2 (09:13):
Dobbins is an RB one. I'll even say top ten.
I am loving JK. Dobbins. I think people missed how
good he was down the stretch last year with the
volume he saw in the run game. Oh, by the way,
those role games without that Lamar Jackson dude playing quarterback,
those were the other shambles of quarterbacks playing back there.
And I look at the twenty plus carries and we
go back to mark Ingram for a few years ago.
(09:34):
I don't need much work in the passing game because
mark Ingram had had two hundred carries and because of
the touchdown equity, which I know everybody sits in the
industry and wants to say, don't predict touchdowns. Some cases
we can kind of predict touchdown equity, and the Baltimore
Ravens backfield is one of those cases.
Speaker 3 (09:49):
You give me two.
Speaker 2 (09:49):
Hundred and forty touches for JK. Dobbins, double digit touchdowns,
top ten finishes coming.
Speaker 1 (09:55):
I don't have to sell Derek Brown JK Dobbins, but
I'm sure they want to pile on here. Go ahead,
d I know you way to pay. Go ahead, give
us some more positive Dobbins reports here.
Speaker 3 (10:04):
Well, let's be real here. I was kind of pissed
off whenever I got to the to the outline and
Jake had already taken JK. Dobbins, because that was gonna
be one of my guys. I was loving this, man.
I love this take because if you look at what
Todd Monkin has done with his running back usage over
his final two seasons as an offensive coordinator, Peyton Barber
and Nick Chubb accounted for at least sixty eight percent
(10:24):
of the opportunities. So I feel like everybody is just
absolutely get the blinders on. They're like, oh, yeah, Greg
Rohman is gone, but we're still going to treat JK.
Dobbins like he still has Greg Roman there. I don't
think this backfield gets divided up into three different parts
or pieces. I don't even think it's really like two.
Speaker 1 (10:40):
I think JK.
Speaker 3 (10:41):
Dobbins is going to be their workhorse back this year.
Todd Monkin has that history, we know the talent, and
now the health is going to comply. Dobbins is going
to crush Man ru.
Speaker 1 (10:52):
And you know it's funny talking about JK. Dobbins Elijah Moore.
You know, guys have had very high expectations and all
of a sudden, all those expectations got lower to the
little bit year over year. But it's kind of like
a refresh right now on then for both of those guys.
And it's in Dynasty as well. So if you're looking
for the Dynasty content, we've got that for you. Fantasybros.
Dot Com slash Dynasty, don't forget because we've got all
the profiles, we got the trade targets. Probably some of
(11:14):
these guys we're talking about are going to be in
there more in depth position primers. Everything's in there and
it's at no cost, so again, go check it out.
It's free. Fantasy Rose dot com slash Dynasty and of course,
like everything else, when you're premium here you get even
more access. So go premium today, Fancy Bros dot Com
slash Premium, But go check out the Dynasty draft kit
and get yourself ready for all those Dynasty startups and
(11:35):
the redrafts and everything you got going on here, Debro,
give us another hot take here? What's your number four
on your list?
Speaker 3 (11:41):
Staying in Baltimore? Man, this is just a fruitful offense
that we're able to kind of pick off parts and
pieces that are too cheap. This year, Rashad Bateman will
finish as a wide receiver two in Fantasy the sample
that we got out of Bateman last year, and I'm
all in on Bateman.
Speaker 1 (11:55):
This year.
Speaker 3 (11:56):
We had four games, the guy all had almost a
twenty percent target share, thirty percent of the air yards
in Baltimore. And I get everybody sitting here building the
arguments in their head right now against Rashad Bateman as
I'm telling you all this, saying.
Speaker 1 (12:08):
All I'm doing them, I'm actively doing that. I just
want you to know Odell Beckham is there. He's a
washed version of himself.
Speaker 3 (12:15):
We saw that last when he was with the Rams,
fifteen percent target chair couldn't even eclipse one point three
yards per route run. And you have a rookie and
Zay Flowers who I like. But still we're going to
talk about prospect profiles. Raw talent, Bateman trumps him ten
times out of ten, and Bateman in that small sample
last year, we got to give this guy some credence.
Speaker 1 (12:35):
And I get it.
Speaker 3 (12:36):
Small samples, a full season of NFL action in its entirety,
it can still be talked about as a small sample.
So don't anybody come at me with a four game sample.
This is a indicator of talent. Rashad Bateman was fourth
and yards per route run over that sample, behind only
Tyreek Hill, Jalen Waddle, and AJ Brown. And he was
tied for first in YAK per reception with Deebo. Samuel
(13:00):
telling me, like, okay, now he's got to compete with
a wash Odell Beckham rookie for targets behind Mark Andrews.
I'm all in on Rashad Bateman. His price in all
drafts right now makes no freaking sense to me. I'm
I'm ready to ride the lightning with Rashad Bateman.
Speaker 1 (13:16):
This year. I was very much with you last year
with Rashad Bateman. Now, like many other people, we have
that you know, that turf burn from last year, which
might also be a Rashad Bateman injury if we look.
But you have all these you know issues where we
go back and look at for Shaw, Bateman, Jake, and
it's not a matter of talent, it is a matter
of health. And we haven't seen him on the field enough.
(13:36):
So Derek is saying, you know, don't come at me
with the small sample size, but he's kind of presenting
a small sample size in his argument. So which side
of the fence do you buy when it comes to
Rashad Bateman.
Speaker 2 (13:46):
I would love to be on the same side because
we just agreed on JK.
Speaker 1 (13:49):
Dobbins.
Speaker 2 (13:49):
But I am far on the other side. I like
there's hedges in the way, Like I can't even see
Derek over here. Like because I'm gonna give you a
name that has nothing to do with this team, Jesus
Smith Schuster last year wide receiver twenty seven behind Travis
Kelsey on Patrick Mahomes offense. I go back to Marki's brown,
even the two years that he led the Ravens didn't
even crack the top thirty five. So that's my problem
(14:11):
is I agree with Derek and the fact that Bateman
is the one and Save Flowers is the two, but
I feel like that's actually two and three behind Mark Andrews.
And unless Lamar Jackson has another MVP season that's still capped,
like that MVP season includes Marcus Brown that year, I
think finished in the forties as the leading wide receiver
quote unquote for the Ravens. So my concern is it's
(14:33):
just it's too much goodness real life for the Ravens.
Like I think having Odell Beckham, Flowers and Bateman is
going to be amazing for Lamar Jackson, but they're all
check in behind Mark Andrews. And that's my biggest concern.
It's just the share. They don't need to have a
go to.
Speaker 1 (14:47):
All right, let's talk about another wide receiver. My number four,
Rashie Rice, who is ranked right now, is the one
hundred and first wide receiver on Fantasy Pros and the ECR.
I think he's gonna be a top fifty wide receiver.
Now people would say, well, that's not a hot take.
I think it is because everyone keeps telling me about
it areas Tony whoever plays, And I like the talent
of sky Moore, but I'm trying to think of the
(15:08):
guy that I think fits their need the most. And
MVS is going to be there for a hot minute
and that he's going to be gone after this season too,
So what they really got to do is find the
next guy, or at least evaluate what they have on
their roster who that's going to be. And the one
caveat I will say is if DeAndre Hopkins, as of
recording this, we don't know where he's going. If he
ends up there, that would change the math a bit
(15:29):
for me. But right now, Rashie Rice, the more I
watch the tape, the more I go back and look
at him, the more you hear the early buzz out
of camp from Patrick Mahomes, how much he likes him
and how he performs and thinks like a veteran. Those
are very good comments to hear about a rookie. So
Derek Brown, let me put this to you. Last year,
you and I held hands. We ran through the garden
that was sky Moore together and we fell into a
(15:51):
well and we couldn't get back out of it. Are
we doing the same thing again with Roshie Rice or
am I doing it? At least?
Speaker 2 (15:57):
So you fell out of what you're telling me, Well,
we fell down.
Speaker 1 (16:02):
We couldn't get ourselves up. But you know what, maybe
it was just the wrong guy was the right concept.
But he does do a lot of the things that
you would you would look at what Juju did last
year in this offense. He does a lot of those things. Well.
So we had some games that once Juju kind of
got up to speed before he got hurt, he had
that stretch of two or three games and everything looked
like he was like, oh no, we're kind of moving
in a good direction. And then the injury happened and
it just took a while to get back on track
(16:23):
and it never really did. But is Rashie Rice the
guy didn't get it on track for the Chiefs.
Speaker 3 (16:28):
I think he is. I mean, if you look at it,
and I've talked about this since they drafted him, I
think that he is the Juju replacement. You look at
what Rashi Rice did in his prospect profile. He was
elite versus his own coverage last year. We're talking about
a guy that was top six and yards per run
against this coverage. So that and you marry that with
a skill set of over the last two years at SMU. Yes,
he played outside one year. He also was in the
(16:50):
slot the year prior to that. So we're talking about
a guy that can fit that mold of being versatile
and playing outside inside and Juju his calling card at
this point of his career is eating zone coverage. Okay, Well,
same thing for Rashid Rice, except he's a younger player
and there's room to maybe add some more tools to
the bag to be able to play the outside more. Yeah,
I think this is definitely pausible, Joe.
Speaker 1 (17:11):
Yeah. Pat fitz Morris has some great write ups on
a lot of the rookies and Raschie Rice.
Speaker 3 (17:14):
Two.
Speaker 1 (17:15):
He's got a Dynasty Startup Draft Primer group that he's
doing right now over on Fantasy Pro. So if you
haven't already seen that, go check it out, the Dynasty
Startup Draft Primer. So all those articles are Fantasypros dot Com.
And he's got right ups on all these guys that
we're talking about. Look, we're talking about Quentin Johnson, We're
talking about Roschie Rice, We're talking about these rookies in
redraft right now. So even if you don't play dynasty,
I think you want to get all the information you
(17:37):
can on these players because it feels very much I'm
sure Jake will attest to this too, like a big
transition year in the NFL, where after we get with
their first four or five rounds, it's kind of wide open.
Nobody kind of knows who's going to slide into some
of these better spots. It is really tough out there,
and the answer is probably going to be a lot
of rookies at the end of the day, Jake, let's
get to your third hot take. What do you have
for the audience?
Speaker 2 (17:58):
So number sixty seven currently at wide receivers, Alec Pierce
more than doubles his return as in finishing as a
top thirty wide receiver. I think that Alec Pierce the
stink of last year and the excitement for what he
could have been. There was flashes, we saw it, We
saw Alec Pearson what he brought to that team. But
I think the stink of the quarterback situation and what
that was for the entire year really ruined what Alec
(18:19):
Pierce could do. Also, the loss of johnth the Taylor
obviously killed that offense as well, but I think you're
looking at Richardson likely starting from day one, as a
lot of people assume, is that I think the profile
of what Pierce gives Richardson and Richardson's style. I think
Pittman is his number one, but Pierce's style will fit
Richardson going deeper at times. And if you look for
the yards or the air yards per target last year
(18:41):
right in line with Michael Pittman, but the yards per
reception was much higher for Alec Peers and that's what
I'm looking at here. I'm looking for the bigger plays
for Pierce might not be as consistent as Pittman. I
think the bigger plays and the touchdown upside that he
can bring. Still love Pittman top twenty to twenty five,
but I think Pierce is could be right on his
heels and that's going to shock a lot of people.
I think he's a great value this year.
Speaker 1 (19:02):
Deepro If Richardson is the Week one starter, though, we
imagine this offense is going to be very run heavy
and a lot of you know, read option kind of stuff.
That's what that's what my anticipation is. Does that far
not just Pittman, but pierced too, in terms of even
the volume that's that could be potentially out there for
him this year.
Speaker 3 (19:21):
Yeah, I mean that's my biggest concern as far as
just looking at receivers in that in that passing offense
is how much are they going to throw the ball?
But I think Jake lays out a path to success
for this as far as when he does get targeted,
it's going to be deep. So you're looking at the
splash plays and the long plays for the touchdowns carrying
him across that finish line. I guess, like my biggest
(19:44):
concern with that is the raw target volume, Like if
he gets eighty targets, but if he gets if you
push him like into a ninety ninety fives target range,
I think it's possible. It really comes down to, and
this is another part to Jake. Do you see Jake,
Like do you see Pittman and Pears garnering what sixties
(20:07):
fifty to sixty percent of the target share? They're an
indie low fifties. I think the tight ends are going
to not be as of all.
Speaker 1 (20:14):
As people hope they will.
Speaker 2 (20:15):
Like you're looking at what we expect Jallanning Woods to
be the lead. It's just it's kind of conglomeration, like
it used to be like, oh my gosh, they have
seventeen tight ends we like, and now it's like they
have seventeen tight ends.
Speaker 1 (20:25):
But we don't really like any of them.
Speaker 2 (20:27):
So I think we're going to get down to the
top two targets are going to be Pittman a Peers.
You are definitely warranted, similar to a Justin Fields, and
the volume might be tough, but I think the touchdown
and the big play upside can offset it all right, So.
Speaker 1 (20:39):
There you go. Let's get to your number three hot take.
Debro What do you Got?
Speaker 3 (20:43):
Started this on the Running Back episode and I was
fighting with Ericson for about an hour and a half,
and I'm going to continue it one because there's no
Ericson here to fight me back, although Jake and Joe
you might fight me on the way here. Travis Etn
is going to massively disappoint people and he is going
to finish as an RB three in Fantasy. Adam Stunner
I said, Travis Etn will finish as an RB three
(21:04):
and three RB three RB three And this all comes
down to last year, Travis Etn had the stranglehold on
volume the early down work. I think Tank Bigsby is
coming for that. I think that Tank Bigsby is going
to factor into the early down work and he is
going to factor into the red zone work here. I
(21:25):
get that he wasn't a second round pick, Joe. I
know you're coming with that, but he was a third
round pick. So we're not talking about four to fifth six.
Speaker 1 (21:31):
I'm not wish casting a seventh round pick.
Speaker 3 (21:33):
And yeah, but if you look at Travis Etn's production
last year, and I'll laid this out on last episode,
but I'm going to rehash it again because again people,
if you're tuning into this, you're looking for the hot takes.
Back this up man, Travis Etn did not have a
pass game er last year. He was thirty first in
targets year, couldn't even surpass eight percent of the targets
(21:53):
in Jacksonville. Now, Calvin really is stepping in, and unless,
like we're talking about with Ericson, we're wish casting injuries
upon this offense, I don't see that his target share
is going to go up. He was thirty six yards
per route run, forty second in PFF's receiving grade. And
he was one of the worst running backs in the
red zone last year, fifty seventh in red zone touchdown
conversion rate. So if Travis Etn loses some of the
(22:16):
early down work, which last year he basically was just
an early down grinder because he had nothing in the
passing game, and he loses the red zone work, we
are talking about a back that is going to operate
in between the twenties, not get targets, and this offense
is built to run through the passing game people. After
(22:36):
Trevor Lawrence took off after week nine, they were top
twelve and both red zone passing rate and neutral script
passing rate. This offense is not going to be driven
and predicated by the run game. So if that backfield
gets split in half, Etn does not get targets and
does not and gets his touchdown chair cut, he is
going to massively disappoint people in fantasy and they are
(22:59):
going to be crying into their pillows all the way Internet.
Speaker 1 (23:02):
And Jake Seeley, I will say, Derek Brown did bring
the receipts here to back this up. So are you
buying this here? I mean, this is a huge drop
off considering if he stays healthy enough to play is
that's not part of this caveat. It's not about health,
it's about performances about the offense. Now, look, the one
thing Ericson did bring up was they were the healthiest
team last year in the NFL, and that is not
something you can expect every year. So Jake Levis atn
(23:26):
giant disappointment RB.
Speaker 2 (23:27):
Three playing a lot of is all the cooking pots.
Speaker 1 (23:31):
Not RB three overall n RB three just in case
people are not hearing it properly, Okay, go ahead.
Speaker 2 (23:36):
If he would have said mid low RB two, I
couldn't even gotten bored. The only like he might not
be wrong, but the only thing I think in my head,
and I even checked myself to make sure I wasn't crazy.
Devin Singletary finished is RB two last year. That's why,
like I'm thinking of I was going through his arguments
and saying, like touches two hundred total, like maybe thirty
reception one hundred and seventy carries, And I was going
(23:58):
through and I'm like, you know, that feels like Devin's
did he even get top twenty four last year? And
he did so the touchdown equity would be the one
thing that really kills him, Like he only had five
all rushing, zero in the passing game. Does he still
get five, six, seven, or eight? Like if he doesn't
and he falls to three, he's gonna nail this and
he's gonna look like a genius. But I just if
Singletary is the floor, I'm kind of like he's still
(24:19):
gonna sneak inside the top.
Speaker 1 (24:20):
Twenty four number three For me, I'm gonna go to
the Houston Texans for this next one. Everyone keeps telling
me about Nico Collins, this guy and that guy. I
watched the guy at Alabama move the change for a
team that was really good, and the guy then they
needed a first down, the guy who in the go
to spots, the guy who made the big plays wasn't
(24:43):
necessarily John Metchi, but the guy that when you needed
to catch the football and make things happen on a
regular basis and be the guy was John Metchi. And
I understand obviously the cancer diagnosis last year was a
horrible thing. He's worked his way back. All the reports
are still very good. Now. We don't know what kind
of lingering effects that's going to have, and that is
all fair, But I'm just gonna go on a limb here,
(25:05):
and I'm gonna go with the guy I think is
the best talent, especially for a young quarterback, the guy
who I think is going to be the better route runner.
The guy's going to play in the slot, and the
slot targets are really what you want right now out
of this offense, because it's still an offense that's going
to be limited in some ways even with c. J. Stroud,
and it is John Metchi, so I think he's going
to lead the Texans and receiving yards in twenty twenty three.
That is my hot take. Jake Seey, what do you
(25:25):
think about this one? You're gonna go in John mitw
You like it?
Speaker 3 (25:29):
Okay?
Speaker 2 (25:29):
I like John Mitchi as a rookie before the whole diagnosis.
As you said, I thought basically after the draft when
they brought him in, I said, this is a perfect
compliment to Brandon Cooks and what they need and need
somebody reliable who knows how to get open every single play,
and that this is perfect. And you've brought it up
like if you're looking at Nico Collins, he's discount Will Fuller.
Let's be honest. That's just like the role that it
(25:50):
brings to this Kay, So like I think that MATCHI
leading this team in receptions is more than easy enough
to do, especially with no Brandon Cooks. Now the only
thing holding him back is what's the state I am
in a level lest that, Like you know, I'm thinking
like Roman reigns and wrestling, like and just bring up wrestling,
but like similar to that, like is he gonna have
Like this time off seems to be long enough that
we hope that he's one hundred percent, but like what
(26:11):
is his staminy is going to be out there ninety
percent of the snaps everything like that? If he is
with CJ. Strout, Let's not forget how good c J.
Stroud is. Is the pip, Like if you talk about the
three main rookie, we.
Speaker 1 (26:21):
Don't have to sell this que guys right here about.
Speaker 2 (26:24):
The campastor of the three, Like he's the one that
should step in and like he'll probably be the lowest
fantasy for our purposes this year, but for accuracy and
needing a match he type. I think that's a perfect
fit between the two.
Speaker 1 (26:36):
All Right, there you go. I always waited my whole
life for Jake Seely to give me validation got it
on this show. Finally, we'll see how the rest of
the show goes. All right, number two, I know.
Speaker 2 (26:46):
You're gonna take that. I'm wearing a Mets shut. You
got to check your question my judgment.
Speaker 1 (26:49):
Come on, Oh well the judgment, yes, but your validation
that's a different thing. All right, let's get to your
number two hot take. What do you have, Ceely.
Speaker 2 (26:56):
I'm gonna hot take it up from what I originally
put in the sheet. I'm gonna even go five spots higher.
Brandon Cooks returns to top twenty. Top twenty wide receiver
actually looked and last year was the first time and
forever he hasn't finished this a top twenty five. But
let's say go back to top twenty.
Speaker 1 (27:10):
I know Michael's on the show, bro Is that is.
Speaker 2 (27:15):
Semi but look about you.
Speaker 1 (27:18):
I take back immediately.
Speaker 2 (27:19):
Now he wants to run a billion times. Look, he's
gonna be happy if you know Tony Poller gets thirty
carries for sixty yards and they win a game because
that's mich McCarthy. But at the same time, they need
to be realistic. They need to get back to the
Dak Prescott offense. Where there's some balance in the passing game.
And for whatever it has been said about Michael Gallup,
Michael Gallup is fine, but he's not a number two.
(27:39):
He's a three. He's similar to we were just talking
about the other wide receivers we've been having in this
conversation so far. Brandon Cooks is not done. Bringan Cooks
is in thirty.
Speaker 3 (27:47):
Like, let's go on and see the.
Speaker 2 (27:49):
Fact of what Brandon Cooks has been able to do
and piece together. Like I feel like this is the
crutch argument. It's easy to say, but he feels like
the new Allen Robinson, Like look at all the trash
he's dealt with, but at least like like Alan Robinson,
their body style and their play style, He's not done yet.
Like Alan Robinson fell off the cliff and disappeared, Brandon
cook still has a lot left and playing with Dak
Prescott in this offense, he's back to Top twenty.
Speaker 1 (28:10):
I love the Brandon Cooks call. I'm with you on
this one too. It's a little spicy, but I like
especially Top twenty. You really pushing it. Yeah, de bro,
let's push another one for you. Wh'is your number two?
Speaker 3 (28:21):
I don't think this is hot and spicy. But apparently
every time I mentioned his name out in the Twitter streets,
apparently everybody wish casts and pulls out their crystal balls
and thinks they could just forecasting money and wish casting.
Speaker 1 (28:32):
Because you mentioned it several times, I get an investment.
Speaker 2 (28:37):
She's playing password on the side that we don't know about.
Speaker 1 (28:40):
Yeah, fo l okay.
Speaker 3 (28:42):
So if you, if you care to come buy this
from me, well happily.
Speaker 2 (28:46):
Wish casting dot com five dollars, ten dollars, I'll give
it you, Terarred Brown in a wizard hat.
Speaker 1 (28:51):
It's an amazing landed page, so good.
Speaker 3 (28:55):
Don't even start that because now that's gonna be the well.
Speaker 1 (28:57):
You did just come from the ren fank you again.
I know that.
Speaker 3 (28:59):
Thanks, Well, you know what, that's fair as well. Darren
Waller will be the tight end two in Fantasy and
compete on the heels of Travis Kelcey for the number
one spot. I love Darren Waller. This year and the
last time we saw Darren Waller surrounded by a bunch
of Beta wide receivers, what did you do? He crushed
everybody in Fantasy. He was first in raw targets, first
(29:23):
and target share, second in targets per route run tight
end two, and fantasy points per game. And now everybody's
saying he's not healthy, he's washed, he's terrible. Well that's
wrong because last year the man was thirteenth in PFF
receiving grade, twelfth in yards per route run and he
led all tight ends. And I get it's a small
sample because he wasn't healthy for the entire year. Let
(29:44):
all tight ends and yards per rout run against man coverage.
And if you go look at the numbers about the
guys that are the top of that leader board, it's
all of the people that end up near the top
of the leaderboard and fantasy points scored amongst tight ends.
Darren Waller has a clear and an amazing path to
absolutely crush in fantasy this year. Everybody's sitting here, give
(30:05):
him the injury discount. I'm not gonna do it. He
is my tight end two in my ranks right now.
So I don't think this is bold, but apparently consensus
does well.
Speaker 1 (30:15):
Jake Seee, I already know you're a self loathing Mets fan,
but the other thing I know about you is you're
a self loathing Giants fan. Also so that being says
there a better chance that he finishes as the tight
end two or just plays two games all year.
Speaker 2 (30:28):
I think there's actually a better chance if you would
have went in the fact that Dgnal Jones can't sustain
a tight end two. That's what it comes down to.
So that's the hating Giants fan. It's like, I'm stuck
with this quarterback forty million a year, so that all.
Speaker 3 (30:39):
I that's all, that's all details.
Speaker 2 (30:43):
I think there's the path for it, like if he
is the Travis Kelce to their offense, if he is
the one that gets one hundred and ten hundred and
twenty targets. My issue, my like concern is that, well
Daniel Jones turned to him that often. Is it gonna
be Wandell, Is it gonna be highat Is it gonna
be Sternly Shepherd for two games? Is it going to
be Slayton and all the rest of the eighteen billion
(31:04):
options that they have, And they're kind of creating this
team of let's everybody slant all over the place, And
that's my concern. So I actually think Debro's spot on
with what should happen. I just don't know if I
trust Daniel Jones to make it happen.
Speaker 1 (31:18):
Fair enough, All right, let's get to the next one
on my list, nine number two. Jamiir Gibbs, who's being
drafted right now as RB nineteen, is going to finish
as an RB one. So again, it's up too many
spots to jump, But I want to throw this out
there because people keep telling me, well, David Montgomery's there
and he's gonna handle lot of the goal line work
and all that fun stuff. And people will point to
last year with Jamal Williams getting as much work as
(31:40):
he did, as many touchdowns as he did, to which
I say that was because of the necessity of they
didn't have DeAndre Swift being DeAndre Swift that they wanted
DeAndre Swift to be. And if you can follow that logic,
stick with me, because I do believe that Jamiir Gibbs
is exactly the DeAndre Swift that they wanted DeAndre Swift
to be. In fact, he's a much better version of
what that plan was, and now all they have to
(32:01):
do is implement it. So kind of like Jake's earlier
comment about Alex Pierce about the quality of the volume
and all these things, going on. He's gonna get the quantity,
he's gonna get the quality. I know David Montgomery is
still there, and yes it will be some early down
work to him, but we all know the running back
that we want in fantasy is the one that catches
the ball and the one has explosiveness, and David Montgomery's
game in explosiveness. So, Derek Brown, are you with me
(32:22):
here in our friend Jamiir Gibbs being an RB one
this year because I am ready for it.
Speaker 3 (32:28):
I think it's possible. I definitely do. I think that
if you see Gibbs eat into the and this is
the biggest worry for me with Gibbs is can he
get enough of the red zone scoring opportunities? Can he
eat into those opportunities inside the twenty, inside the ten?
And honestly, Joe, I mean I'm gonna push back a
little bit.
Speaker 1 (32:48):
I feel like you should.
Speaker 3 (32:49):
You could have gone Boulder with this top eight, top ten.
I mean, I don't know. Maybe I'm asking you to
turn up the heat here a little bit because I
could see this happening all right.
Speaker 1 (32:58):
Top ten boom didn't take much convincing there, Yeah, that
was I don't care. Look I'm just telling you right now,
I just you look at what the Lions did and
the fact that they were so aggressive on him, it
tells me that that's the guy they wanted, That's the
guy they were not going to let slip out of
their fingers. And look, kudos to them for being aggressive
of getting him. The draft night, we all kind of
made our jokes, but at the end of the day,
(33:19):
you look back at their draft. They got the players
they needed. The order doesn't matter, nobody cares. After a
certain point in time, all the matters. Did you get
the guys you needed to go compete and you started
to look around that division. Now, Vikings defense is very good,
Bears defense is work in progress. I don't think anybody's
afraid of the Packers just saying to me, this is
wide open for Jamior Gibbs.
Speaker 2 (33:38):
Let's say top ten, top ten, I think, but top
ten actually makes it a little bit disier because I
comped into Alvin Kamara and the seasons where he didn't
have a billion rushing touchdowns. He was just on the
borderline of being RB one those two other seasons, and
I think that's kind of what the expectancy should be
that's exactly just I worry about Dan Campbell knucking it
up with like eating dog children or what any well,
(34:00):
what everything does.
Speaker 1 (34:01):
But you know what I think, Jake, I think everybody's
looking too hard at the Jamal Williams twenty twenty two.
Instead of saying to the point of saying, but they are,
they're trying to say, Oh, that's gonna be the copy
and paste year over year, Like no, it's not. Last
year was a byproduct of not having Swift be the
guy that they wanted him to be in the style
of offense. They needed this to be, especially with six
weeks of not having Jameson Williams around two. All right,
(34:21):
Derek Brown, let's get to your number one, and then
we'll get to Jake's and we'll get to mine, because
Jakes and mine are intertwined, just like our lives have
been for the last ten years.
Speaker 3 (34:29):
Go ahead, Well, I'll let y'all fight it out like
a merry couple here in a second.
Speaker 1 (34:33):
But that's what we do best.
Speaker 3 (34:34):
That exactly I I'm diving into this ambiguous backfield. I
know that people are worried about Damien Harris, and they're
worried about Olatavious Murray. I'm just gonna go with the talent,
and I think the most talented back that could play
on early downs and the passing game, James Cook is
gonna have a breakout season. He's gona be a top
twenty four running back in fantasy. And if you look
at what he did last year unlimited touches, he was
(34:57):
twenty eighth yards of contact per attempt. The man was
first in breakaway percentage. So we're talking about big plays.
I'm not telling you that James Cook is going to
be a fifteen to twenty carry guy a game. Can
he be a fifteen touch player a game? Fifteen touches,
that's all we're asking for through the passing game and
early downs. I think that is definitely possible. And you
(35:18):
look at he was nineteenth at PFF lucid rating. He
lapped Damien Harris in that metric. He was almost double him.
Fifteenth in yards per route run. We've seen Jake brought
up Devin Singletary, the Jag of all Jags producing in
this backfield over the last few years, RB thirty, RB
twenty four in Fantasy points per game. Now we're air dropping.
(35:38):
We got James Cook and he can take over a backfield,
or at least enough to the sense of Devin Singletary
did that both with less talent and hovering around a
fifty eight percent opportunity share. You're telling me that James Cook,
who was a more explosive player, because Devin Singletary does
not know what a home run is on the NFL field,
(36:00):
James Cook can break off those home run plays with
a fifty percent opportunity share. And the touchdowns even I'm
not telling you top of the line touchdowns. He sneaks
in and he breaks off a few long touchdowns that
mary with the passing game. Yes, he can absolutely do this.
Speaker 1 (36:15):
All right, Jake, you are the Cara top of the
fantasy industry. I know you've got lots of Prompsey. So
you have to hold that up a little higher on
the YouTube channel, closer to your face. Now, that is
a is a rainbow poop, Unicorn poop with the unicorn
poop so sound effects too. So I guess you're not
buying the James Cook that deep broa.
Speaker 3 (36:33):
Because it's unicorn poop.
Speaker 2 (36:35):
So I have two poops and you just pulled out
a unicorn poop. It's not full poop because you kind
of made it rainbows and shiny. If you want to
go bull, James Cook should be RB one or top
fifteen in the medium because you just brought up seventh
singletary my pushback. Initially, I didn't see you said top
twenty four. I was gonna be like, look, you just
argued against Travis Etn. I'll do the same thing for
James Cook. I actually do think Jamian Harris is going
to take away too many first downs, but particularly the
(36:56):
goal line, which was his heyday at the Patriots. So
I'm worried about the touchdown equity for James Cook, who
I think is very much like Dravis Etn, should be
used more in the passing game, like James Cook will
be that. I'll say, top twenty four doesn't feel that
bold for me, so I can get on board.
Speaker 1 (37:10):
That's that.
Speaker 2 (37:11):
That's why it's unicorn poop. I can get on board.
You made it sound really rosy, but you didn't make
it that great.
Speaker 3 (37:15):
You made it too because what you're telling me, I
need to stir and increase to eat like I was,
all right, top fifteen.
Speaker 1 (37:22):
All right, there we go. We turned out, you know,
of all the things I thought we would talk about today.
Unicorn poop was not on my list. I have to
say I did not think that's where we're going to
get to.
Speaker 3 (37:29):
But I do love where we are, the fart sounder
and and the fact that we have these high end
picture You bring in a high quality guest for this
show to really raise the bar that he brings.
Speaker 1 (37:41):
Seriously, this is what I thought I got far season
and unicorn poop props here on the show, Jake Seally,
why don't you give us your number one hot take here?
H for the twenty twenty three fantasy season? What do
you got, buddy?
Speaker 2 (37:57):
So it's everybody's favorite darling this year. He's not only
going to not be top five at running back, Bijon
Robinson won't be a top ten running back. I'm going
to reference early in this show when I brought up
the bottom ten offense, and I'm going to the fact
that I love Bejon Robinson.
Speaker 3 (38:12):
You know my problem.
Speaker 1 (38:13):
You know if you did, you wouldn't even be saying
sat here.
Speaker 2 (38:17):
If he's Nick Chubb, people are going to be a
static because look at the line that Nick Chubb put up.
The concern and why I bring up Nick Chubb is
because I don't know if the usage in the passing
game is going to be there, not because of Bijon,
but because of the offense, the offensive style. Desmond Ritter,
who I actually do like, I don't think is going
to throw the running back they haven't got rid of
Cordela Patterson. I think Tyler a year is done for
(38:39):
it being involved, but he's going to be involved enough
to just take away a few carries per week. And
I go back to the touchdown equity, and I bring
up a good friend of ours, at least mine, who
I think is undervalued this year. Najee Harris last year,
on almost three hundred and fifty touches, did not finish
as the top twelve running back. I don't know that
Jon Robinson gets the top twelve because of the team
that he's one offensive line though the Steelers run offensive
(39:02):
line at Because I know what you're ready, I want
to know. Naj Harris one thousand yards and two hundred
and seventy carries, I think that could be very much
what b Jon Robinson does on this offense, even with
the better offensive line, just because of what the offense
is going to be. That's my biggest concern is that
the Falcons' is not.
Speaker 1 (39:18):
B Jon Robinson Brown one fight, all right, So my
number one, obviously and is has to do with b
Jehon Robinson and Jake. You know, I used to think
that your take on Diehard not being a Christmas movie
was the dumbest thing that ever came out of your mouth.
But but now now we have this today because b
Jon Robinson is going to be the RB one and
half point PPR in twenty twenty three. That's right, because
(39:41):
he is a great route runner. He can actually line
up in the slot. Okay, that's something Nick Chubb didn't
do ever. Okay, that stuffs not happening. So when it
comes to be John Robinson and the Falcons in general,
this concern about four hundred year old Cordell Patterson is
not a concern. Tyler Aljier was only Tyler out year
because that offensive line was really good at running the football.
(40:03):
And now, yes, was out of necessity, but it's also
the plan. It's also how Arthur Smith is building this team.
And let's not forget too that they also have drafted
in the last three years the best tight end prospect,
arguably one of the best wide receiver prospects and now
the best running back prospect. Desmond Ridder just has to
manage this. Desmon ridd is a smart kid. So one
thing you say about Desmond Ritter, he has to be
a technician at quarterback. He has to be what Ryan
Tannehill was for the Tennessee Titans at quarterback for this
(40:26):
to be a successful offense. And I am over the
moon about the talent of Bijon. And it's not because
he's a rookie. It's not because of all these other things.
But if you look at the need for this offense
because of the young quarterback, if you look at the
way this team is built, the coaching staff, the philosophy,
the versatility, all these things that Bejeon Robinson brings to
the table. He is going to be the Atlanta Falcons offense.
(40:48):
And that is something that I want, the quality, the quantity,
I want it all. I want all the Bijon. He's
going to be number one. Jake, Seely, it's so much
fun to be on opposite ends for you, And this
is why you and I always have so much fun together.
And I can't wait to have you back here at
the end of the year when Jon Robinson is at
the top of the mountain and I want to know,
(41:08):
will you issue a formal apology to BI Sean.
Speaker 2 (41:12):
I certainly will, but it's not gonna.
Speaker 1 (41:14):
Will you write it out with one hand, because that's
all you have. I want you to write it out.
Speaker 2 (41:17):
We'll write it out now with one hand. I can
say it since I haven't, but it's gonna say I was.
Speaker 3 (41:23):
And haven't actually written out. So that's well.
Speaker 1 (41:26):
Again, these are the hot takes we want to hear yours.
Drop them in the comments below here on the YouTube
channel because it's fun so we can all debate them.
Speaker 2 (41:32):
So hot at RB seven, but that's still far off
from RB one.
Speaker 1 (41:36):
It's it's not high enough. It's not enough respect for
Jon Robinson, and you don't like that has been ridden enough.
You don't like the Falcons enough. And any concern about
Bjon Robinson not being great because a Corderoll, Frickin Patterson
or Tyler lg or anybody else that's.
Speaker 2 (41:52):
Around them wound to target volume. I don't think he's
gonna get foury targets.
Speaker 1 (41:56):
Listen, the last time we had an RB in the
NFL draft, Jake High with Saquon Barkley. So we things
have changed, and what did Barkley do? He was RB
two that year team that in the passing game. I
will state that today that's not a hot take.
Speaker 3 (42:12):
He ain't that far. I'm sorry, he is that far.
Speaker 2 (42:16):
He's got gap is not as far as people want
to make it.
Speaker 3 (42:20):
I can't push Bijon down that far when he landed
with a team that was first and rushing rate and
first in red zone rushing rate last year.
Speaker 1 (42:28):
Touchdowns, Oh good, this whole forty minutes on v Jon Robinson.
But we're not going to Jake Seally everybody. He's the best.
He's my friend. He should be your friend too. Follow
him on Twitter at all in kid. Check out his
amazing work at the Athletic Jake. It's always fun to
have you on the program and talk football with you,
even when you're wrong about things that you say. And
(42:48):
if you want to see about people who are right
about things that they say, make sure you head over
and check out our amazing Dynasty content because we've got
fantasypros dot Com Slash Dynasty Draft.
Speaker 3 (42:56):
Kit is open now. It's free, go check it out.
Speaker 1 (42:59):
Pat fitz Morris always write ups on fantasypros dot com,
the startup draft primer, all the articles, the tight end
one just drops, so go check all that out too
at Fantasy Pros. That'll do it for us, but the
story of the game goes on for Debro and Jake Seely,
I'm Joey P. We'll see you next time. Kids. Thanks
for listening to the Fantasy Pros Football Podcast. Follow us
(43:19):
on Twitter and Instagram at Fantasy Pros, and subscribe to
our YouTube channel at YouTube dot com slash Fantasy Pros.
Hosts And Creators
Andrew Erickson
Joe Pisapia
Derek Brown
Thor Nystrom
Ryan Wormeli
Pat Fitzmaurice
Matthew Freedman
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On Purpose with Jay Shetty
I’m Jay Shetty host of On Purpose the worlds #1 Mental Health podcast and I’m so grateful you found us. I started this podcast 5 years ago to invite you into conversations and workshops that are designed to help make you happier, healthier and more healed. I believe that when you (yes you) feel seen, heard and understood you’re able to deal with relationship struggles, work challenges and life’s ups and downs with more ease and grace. I interview experts, celebrities, thought leaders and athletes so that we can grow our mindset, build better habits and uncover a side of them we’ve never seen before. New episodes every Monday and Friday. Your support means the world to me and I don’t take it for granted — click the follow button and leave a review to help us spread the love with On Purpose. I can’t wait for you to listen to your first or 500th episode!