Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Hello everybody, Welcome into the Fantasy Pros Football Podcast. I'm
Ryan Wormley, joined by Pat fitz Morris and by Derek
brown Fellas.
Speaker 2 (00:07):
We're talking fantasy takeaways for.
Speaker 1 (00:09):
The AFC North, always a very hard fought division. Ravens
came away on top this year twelve or five. They
are the third seed in the AFC playoffs. We will
start at the top. We'll start with fits. What was
your fantasy takeaway for the AFC North in twenty twenty four?
Speaker 3 (00:26):
Worm this, We'll start with the Ravens. And I'm sorry
I have to go negative on your favorite team, but
it would make for a boring show if my takeaway
for the Ravens was just that Lamar Jackson and Derek
Henry are awesome. So I'm gonna say Za Flowers should
not be regarded as a top twenty wide receiver for
twenty twenty five. I think Flowers is terrific, really fun
(00:46):
to watch, really talented. He is well worthy first round
pick the Ravens spent on him. But the way the
Ravens offense works makes Flowers this inconsistent fantasy performer, and
that inc resistancy he can kind of bite his stakeholders
in the butt at times. There were eight games this
season where Flowers had six or fewer targets. There were
(01:09):
also eight games in which Flowers had forty or fewer
receiving yards. That's almost half of his games. Under forty
is obviously a day you're you're not pleased with if
you're a fantasy manager. The problem is that the Ravens
ran the ball on fifty two point five percent of
their offensive snaps this year. Only the Eagles were run
heavier than the Ravens were in twenty twenty four. And
(01:32):
do we really think that's going to change next year
with Lamar Jackson a quarterback and Derek Henriet running back.
That's just the mo It didn't change when Greg Roman
left town. And like, this is just how the Ravens
are built. So I have Za Flowers ranked wide receiver
twenty one, and I'm wondering if even that is a
(01:52):
little too high, quite too high?
Speaker 2 (01:54):
Yeah, you know, I will say on the run.
Speaker 1 (01:57):
I don't know that the problem for Jay Flowers is
how run heavy the Ravens were. I think the prom
for Flowers is how run heavy they were at the
goal line because there was just not the opportunity to
get touchdowns unless they were coming from you know, very far.
He only had four touchdowns this whole season. He had
one in Week two, he had two in Week nine,
and he had one in Week eleven.
Speaker 2 (02:17):
That was it.
Speaker 1 (02:18):
And to me, that is like by far the biggest problem.
If that numbers doubled, you know, just up to not
even some crazy number, if that number is eight to
ten range, then I would be feeling a lot differently
about Zay. And even with only four touchdowns, he was
still wide receiver twenty two this season and half VPR scoring.
Like I think watching the games, you know, obviously I
watched very closely. I came away from the season feeling
(02:40):
like he took a step forward. He is maybe not
a white fantasy wide receiver one or definitely not that,
but he he is a very valid and capable wide
receiver one for the Ravens offense in a way that
no receiver really ever has kind of fully solidified since
like ankuon Bold and like it's been a while, and
he does it very differently stylistically. So I really like
(03:00):
Zay Flowers, and I think there's a chance that if
the touchdowns do start to.
Speaker 2 (03:05):
Come, then maybe you are a little bit low fits.
Speaker 1 (03:08):
But having said that, we've been given no reason to
expect those touchdowns to come because even when they do throw,
it goes to Mark Andrews or Isaiah Likely or whoever else.
So de Ry, I know you were kind of nodding
along and seeming to agree with that.
Speaker 4 (03:19):
I agree with everything you just laid out their Worm,
that was the points that I was gonna make. And
it comes down to touchdowns. It's not a matter of talent.
He got enough targets last year and he was efficient
enough with him. It comes down all to touchdowns, say Flowers,
to your point, Worm, you talked about the number of
receiving touchdowns. His red zone role is not enough. It's
not nearly enough. So like I think he should be
(03:40):
because he was the wide receiver thirty two and fantasy
points per game, so looking at him as a wide
receiver three is exactly where I think he should be.
He had two stretches this season of at least five games,
five games without a single freaking red zone target. Like
(04:01):
you're gonna have ebbs and flows of Zay Flowers considering
the context of the offense, you're also gonna have those
touchdowns are not going to be there to stabilize and
also raise the ceiling and flour of him on a
weekly basis, unless he's just breaking off massive plays downfield,
which he could, but that's really tough and that's a
lot to ask any player to do consistently week after
(04:22):
week after week if the red zone role was not there.
So I love the talent, I love his role in
this offense. He is taking a huge step forward regardless
of whatever metric we pull up, but the red zone
role unless that changes, He's not a wider super two.
He's a water super three for me.
Speaker 1 (04:39):
You know, Fitz, I wonder do you kind of ascribe
anything to like His targets fell off a lot in
the second half of the year. They didn't like entirely
go off a cliff. He was still getting you know,
six seven, eight targets a game. It's not as much
as we would have liked to see. It wasn't like
he was getting no targets. This is just in general,
not specifics the red zone.
Speaker 2 (04:56):
But to start the.
Speaker 1 (04:57):
Season, you know, week one ten targets, Week two to
eleven targets, Week five twelve targets, Week eight twelve targets,
those were all in the first half of the season.
Through Week nine, he was wide receiver ten. He was
ranked right in between Brian Thomas Junior than Amed Ross
Saint Brown like he was. He was a wide receiver
one in the first half of the season, and then
the second half it just it just wasn't there did
anything change in the second half of the season. Was
(05:19):
it just we got to Derrick Henry season and you
know they wanted to, you know, use him even more.
He started, he starts scoring a few were touchdowns in
the second half of the year. So I don't know
if it's that, Is there anything that you would kind
of put point towards as a reason for that.
Speaker 3 (05:31):
It seemed like Lamar was more proactively targeting Rashad Bateman,
and remember like how meager the target counts were for
Mark Andrews early in the season. Like he got more
involved too as the season went on. So I think
it was basically greater involvement for those two maybe cost
Flowers a few targets.
Speaker 4 (05:50):
YEP, absolutely agree. It was Andrew's resurgence. It was Bateman
taking a step forward, a deserved step forward in this
passing attack.
Speaker 1 (06:01):
Dee bro let's go to your takeaway for the ten
and seven Pittsburgh Steelers, the sixth seed in the playoffs,
they're going to be going to Baltimore for that fun
rivalry matchup in January. But the Steelers ten and seven,
what's your takeaway.
Speaker 4 (06:14):
If Russell Wilson is back as the quarterback and Arthur
Smith as back as the play caller for Pittsburgh in
twenty twenty five, I'm fading this offense like is this
was one of the most disappointing offenses, Like yes, okay,
Like if you had n Agie Harris this year where
you're like, oh, cool, he's a flex option, but then
there's a lot of weeks where you're like, oh, geez,
(06:35):
why did I start him? RB twenty five and Fantasy
points per game? Jalen Warren RB thirty nine and Fantasy
points per game. Both of those guys. I understand that
both of those guys were looking towards twenty twenty five
are free agents, so maybe neither one of them are back.
But the bigger point to how Arthur Smith. We've already
seen this people. Do you remember Bjon Robinson getting his
(06:55):
rookie season ruined because of Arthur Smith trying to be
the smartest guy in the room and trying to not run.
This is just another situation of Arthur Smith not running
his offense through his best players on a consistent basis.
And this trickles down to George Pickens wide receiver thirty five.
(07:17):
He had six games only six games this year where
he was a wide receiver, two were better and weekly scoring,
he had eight games where George Pickens was outside the
top forty wide receivers in weekly scoring. So while we
hoped more consistency out of George Pickens because he's the
only dude in that passing attack, we didn't get it.
You got a revisiting of the previous year of George Pickens.
(07:40):
The rapper changed, the substance was still the same, and
Pratt friremuth because of this offense because touchdowns go everywhere
except the best players. Again, Pat friarmth weeks one through
seventeen when it actually freaking mattered tight end sixteen in
Fantasy points per game. Thank you, but no thank you
Russell Wilson and Arthur Smith in this offense for fantasy
(08:01):
for twenty twenty four, and if they're back again, they're
gonna do it again in twenty twenty five.
Speaker 1 (08:06):
Dobro, If I told you that we were going to
get one of these two back exactly one, not zero,
and not both, what would you rather see? Would you
rather see Russ and a new offensive coordinator. Would you
rather see Arthur Smith and a different quarterback?
Speaker 2 (08:19):
Oh?
Speaker 4 (08:20):
Good lord, Arthur Smith at a different quarterback, like Pittsburgh.
If I was Pittsburgh. You keep justin fields like dude.
The playbook of how to stop Russell Wilson. It limits
so much of your effectiveness in what you can do.
It is legit. Play too high, put two safeties over
the top, you take away the go ball, bucket shots
(08:41):
on on the perimeter. You make him beat you in
the middle of the field. And Russell Wilson hasn't seen
the middle of the field since maybe high school, so
that's not gonna happen. It's it's just so freaking predictable, man.
It's so easy on a weekly basis to say, Oh, hey,
they're playing a single high team, Well let's go George Pickens. Yeah,
the bucket shots down the sideline. Oh, it's a jwo
(09:02):
I coverage and he screwed. Okay, we're not starting anybody
from this offense, maybe the running backs.
Speaker 2 (09:07):
It's what do you think?
Speaker 3 (09:10):
I kind of agree with half of Debro's take and
half not. Like I don't as of now want to
be too heavily invested in the Steelers offense for twenty
twenty five, especially if it is the Russ and Arthur
Smith show. Again. I just don't think Arthur or uh
Russell Wilson is the same guy he was in Seattle,
Like that is kind of gone and he sort of
(09:31):
swerved everyone, I think when he had some big games
right away after taking over for Fields as the starter,
but like that just wasn't sustainable, especially with a pretty
poor group of pass catchers collectively and going to George
Pickens deebro I just like I don't think he's a
Ceedee Lamb guy who you can give one hundred and
(09:51):
fifty one hundred and sixty targets. He's just not that
kind of player. I don't think he is a true alpha.
I think he's more like a big play special. I mean,
I don't think he's mature enough to be a true alpha. No,
And honestly, yeah, I don't think either Nase or Jalen
Warren deserve to be, you know, the lead back. I
(10:12):
think it was wise to platoon those guys. The only
guy of questions with the usage of would be Pat Fryarmouth,
and I'm still not totally sure how good he is,
but that's just what Arthur Smith does. He wants to
use multiple tight ends. So we were of course going
to get some Darnell Washington and Michele Pruitt and that
was going to be really frustrating. So I don't necessarily
(10:33):
blame Arthur Smith for the way he deployed the limited
skill position weaponry that he had, but I do agree
that this is not looking like a very fruitful source
of fantasy goodness for twenty twenty five as it now stands.
Speaker 1 (10:48):
Last thought on the Steelers fits. Do you expect to
be ahead of or below consensus on George Pickens next year?
Speaker 3 (10:56):
Below?
Speaker 4 (10:57):
Below? Big time below? Yeah. I mean, on a weekly basis,
can we rule out George Pickens getting into a fight
with any cornerback that's out that that decides to cover
him and he just doesn't like it and he throws
a fit and he's out by the halftime.
Speaker 3 (11:11):
Nope, I mean, maybe I'll be in line. I've got
him wide receiver twenty three right now. And I kind
of started with him a little higher, and I just
decided that that was a little too much, and I
wanted to move him behind guys like Zay Flowers. Like
I as many issues as I have with Zay Flowers
in his usage, I think he's a better bet than
George Pickens for twenty twenty.
Speaker 1 (11:32):
I would actually much rather have Zay than Sam Debra
what you would also, Pikett Dickens will be a wide
receiver three for me.
Speaker 4 (11:39):
I can't get it.
Speaker 1 (11:39):
I was gonna say when you said wide receiver twenty
three fits my I haven't actually sat down and done
twenty twenty five, like early rankings or anything yet, but
my initial gut reaction to hearing that was that's a
little bit too high. It's not like insanely too high.
But to me that I don't think I would have
him as.
Speaker 4 (11:54):
Well as that real fast FITSI George Pickens and Marvin
Harrison Junior next year.
Speaker 3 (11:59):
I've tentatively got Pickings ranked higher.
Speaker 4 (12:02):
Okay, because I think I think I want Marv.
Speaker 3 (12:05):
Yeah, that's not unreasonable.
Speaker 2 (12:07):
I think I want Harrison too.
Speaker 1 (12:09):
Man. I wish I had more faith in what their
plans for using him. We're gonna be before I made
that statement, but I think I would.
Speaker 2 (12:17):
I would have Harrison there.
Speaker 3 (12:18):
I have a feeling that's gonna come up in our
NFC West.
Speaker 1 (12:21):
Yeah, yeah, maybe if you If you guys want a
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(12:42):
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are up and to claim your prize Debro. We're onto
(13:04):
the Cincinnati Bengals nine to eight did not sneak into
the playoffs thanks to their slow start to the season.
What is your fantasy takeaway for Cincy?
Speaker 4 (13:12):
I think when we're in draft season, and I think
people are on the clock. They are very hesitant to
make two draft picks and invest heavily in an offense
in the sense of taking two wide receivers from the
same offense. I think that we need to get past this.
I've stated this before, but I think that what we
saw from the Bengals if we think an offense is
(13:34):
going to pass a lot, which Cincinnati did, and there's
other offenses that we can say that for looking into
twenty twenty five, I have no issues and I don't
think anybody should have any issues taking two wide receivers
from the same team in fantasy in draft season. You
look at what Chase and T Higgins did this year
(13:55):
wide receiver one and wide receiver two in fantasy points
per game.
Speaker 2 (14:01):
That's it. That's a stet.
Speaker 1 (14:04):
What do you think about this fits, Is this an
example of you should the takeaway should be you can
be comfortable when they're quality players taking two receivers from
the sea offense. Or is this an example of the outlier,
the exception kind of defining the rule, where like, yes,
this is it is an exception to the rule where
(14:25):
you can take T. Higgins and Jabar Chase, but you
shouldn't apply that to other receiving cores.
Speaker 3 (14:31):
Deeberrow. I'm sorry, but I think this is a freakish
one tenth of one percentile exception to the rule, maybe
one one hundredth of one percentile. Like I mean, I
know I would get starting question starts hit questions in
discord where some guy would lay out his wide receiver
corps for me and he would have like DK Metcalf
and Jackson Smith and Jigba And my response was, you know,
(14:55):
part of it would be you should probably trade one
of those guys, Like I just don't. I think it
limits your weekly upside if you start two receivers from
the same team, unless you've got a quarterback who's averaging
like three hundred and forty passing yards and three and
a half touchdowns a game like Joe Burrow was. But
how rare is that? So I think it can happen
under the right circumstances. But in general practice, is it
(15:18):
a good rule of thumb to draft two guys from
the same team. I don't think it is, Like, no, I.
Speaker 4 (15:22):
Don't think of general practice. Are there are reasons? And like, again,
I've enveloped this in team, a team that is going
to throw the ball and has good enough quarterback play
to support two different guys. Because two other instances that
I will bring up right now, AJ Brown at DeVonta
Smith wide receiver twelve and wide receiver fifteen and Fantasy
(15:44):
points per game, the Minnesota Vikings Justin Jefferson wide receiver
three and Jordan Addison wide receiver twenty one. Those are
two other teams that we can point to that also fielded.
These are three teams, three teams, six players that make
up the top twenty four wide receivers in Fantasy.
Speaker 3 (16:05):
But we also weren't getting smash games from Jefferson and
Addison in the same week very often. We definitely weren't
getting smash games from AJ Brown and DeVante's.
Speaker 4 (16:13):
But it evens out right very often.
Speaker 3 (16:16):
I Mean, that's interesting in.
Speaker 4 (16:17):
A nutshell though, the volatility in the weekly roller coaster.
No guys top five every single week, regardless even if
we rank him as top five every week.
Speaker 3 (16:25):
Yeah, but if you're getting eighteen PPR points from one
guy and like nine PPR from the other guy in
any given week, like I don't know if that's a
win necessarily, Like I just want to aim higher every week,
and you know, then there are weeks like what happens
if the starting quarterback for that team gets garbage canned
(16:45):
and all of a sudden the backups in and now
you're really hosed. So I just I think it's a
little there's not enough upside and a little bit of
volatility involved with that approach too. So I just generally
just don't think it's good strategy.
Speaker 1 (16:58):
Do you guys see a different in this strategy when
they're both receivers versus drafting one receiver and a high
level tight end from the same team, Like, for example,
are you going to be willing to draft Marvin Harrison
Junior and Trey McBride to the same fantasy team next year?
Speaker 2 (17:13):
You know, Brock Bauers and Jacoby.
Speaker 1 (17:15):
Myers, you know whatever company is they Flowers and Mark
Andrews Debro Is that something you're willing to do?
Speaker 2 (17:22):
In conversation you that din win two receivers.
Speaker 4 (17:25):
Same conversation, I'm fine with it. Like, I mean, I
think it's a great point that you brought up. There
weren't because it tight ends the top end. Guys, we
should view as wide receivers, not tight ends because they
produced like wide receivers, the cross correlation between positional stuff. So,
would we have had any problems drafting Marvin Errison Junior
and Trey McBride on the same team.
Speaker 2 (17:45):
No?
Speaker 4 (17:45):
Do we have any problems drafting Xavier Worthy and Travis
Kelcey or Rashia Rice and Travis Kelcey on the same team. No.
So I think this all comes back to really just
a point that I think that the bigger point here
for me is I want to invest in one good offenses,
but offenses they're gonna throw throw the ball a crap
(18:07):
ton with good players in it.
Speaker 2 (18:08):
So, Fitz, what do you.
Speaker 1 (18:10):
Think about that framing of a receiver and a tight
end on the same team.
Speaker 3 (18:14):
Yeah, I mean, I think it's okay if you have
situations like Bauers and Myers, or like McBride and Harrison
where it's two guys commanding a massive share of the
targets on a particular team. You know, is it something
I'm aiming to do? Though, definitely not.
Speaker 1 (18:30):
Let's wrap up the AFC North with the Cleveland Browns.
They were terrible three and fourteen. I'm not even sure
like how strong of a takeaway you can even have
on the Browns, just given like what we saw from
the quarterback position this year, the uncertainty of what we're
gonna see next year, Like obviously they're someone beholding to
Deshaun Watson financially, but they're already talking about how his achilles,
(18:53):
you know, might not be ready for the start of
the twenty twenty five season. So like fits when you
sit down to say, how do I even like come
up with a takeaway for this Cleveland team in this
Cleveland season, Like, how did you approach coming up with one?
Speaker 3 (19:05):
Well, I think we've got to tie into Deshaun Watson,
and in this case, like the guy to have in
the Cleveland offense obviously this year was Jerry Judy. And
my take is that Jerry Judy's twenty twenty four breakthrough
is legit and I Am not going to fade him
in twenty twenty five, even if the Browns say they're
going to start Deshaun Watson as soon as he's ready.
(19:27):
So Judy finished with ninety catches and twelve hundred yards.
But let's parse this a little more carefully. Seven starts
for Deshaun Watson at the beginning of the season. In
those games, Judy averaged three catches and thirty eight receiving yards.
So then we got seven starts out of Jamis Winston,
Judy averaged seven catches and one hundred and twelve point
(19:50):
three receiving yards in those games. And then even down
the stretch when we got three starts combined out of
Dorian Thompson Robinson and Bailey Zappi, Judy averaged six points
catches in fifty nine yards in those games. Like he
was still a legitimate fantasy starter even with those backup
like third string quarterbacks playing. So I mean, like Judy
(20:13):
did significantly better with Bailey Zappi and Dorian Thompson Robinson
throwing him the all that he did with Deshaun Watson.
The question is whether Judy's slow start I guess with
Watson was just fully attributable to how bad Deshaun was.
Or is it that like the light hadn't fully switched
on for Judy because we his career in general got
(20:36):
off to a pretty slow start. I mean, he had
a pretty promising rookie year, but then three very disappointing
seasons in Denver. So I don't know, maybe Judy is
gonna fare much better next season, even if it is
Deshaun Watson at quarterback. But here's the thing, Like the
Browns are not gonna let Watson make seven more starts
next season if he plays as poorly as he did
(20:58):
in twenty twenty four. They are just not going to
give him that much leash. So I have Judy ranked
wide receiver twenty two, right behind Zay Flowers. I suspect
that's going to put me a little ahead of consensus
on him. Maybe not, but yeah, I just I want
to be invested in this guy after his thoroughly impressive
season this year because he was just lights out. I
(21:20):
think he's one of the ten best route runners in
the game.
Speaker 1 (21:24):
Where do you expect him fits to be ranked in
ECR next year?
Speaker 2 (21:29):
Not where you will have him.
Speaker 3 (21:30):
Where do you think he'll be I think around twenty five?
Speaker 1 (21:33):
Yeah, de bro, What do you think about Jerry Judy
as somebody to not fade even with the quarterback stuff
going on?
Speaker 4 (21:40):
I think you're not going to fade Jerry Judy because
I think we're gonna have a different quarterback. I mean,
welcome cam Ward or Shadura Sanders to Cleveland. They got
the second overall pick in the NFL draft. So even
having them move up to number one with changing hands
with Tennessee, if Tennessee, you know, doesn't like however, they
want to approach this draft to tell them what they
(22:00):
do at quarterback. They signed Sam Darnold something like that,
then they don't have a quarterback issue. Look, you want
to go out and get Travis Hunter, you want to
pair him with Lugeria snead By, all means, go do it,
But this all comes down to me the way that
you mitigate the Deshaun Watson stuff. You say, DeShawn stay home.
We're gonna obviously have to pay you, We're gonna cut you,
We're gonna do something else. This team is ready to go,
(22:23):
man like. You look at the defense, if they can
get health out of them. You look at the offensive line,
you look at the skill players. You draft a running
back in the middle rounds, you go draft your quarterback
with the number two overall pick. Maybe you move up
to one, and you roll into twenty twenty five, and
we're all happy about Jerry Juditer because it's not fricking
Deshaun Watson throwing the football to him.
Speaker 1 (22:42):
We'll wrap up the AFC North there Please be sure
to check out all of our division fantasy takeaways. We're
doing every single division as their own little smaller episode
for Debro and Fits.
Speaker 2 (22:52):
I'm Ryan Warmly thanks for tuning in. We'll see you again
next time.
Speaker 1 (22:56):
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