August 7, 2025 • 17 mins
Join Chris Welsh and Derek Brown as they reveal D-Bro’s 3 biggest busts to avoid in your 2025 fantasy football drafts, while also providing some tips on how to bust-proof your draft!
Timestamps: (May be off due to ads)
Intro - 0:00:00
Kyren Williams - 0:00:31
Chuba Hubbard - 0:04:32
How to Bust-Proof Your Draft - 0:09:34
FantasyPros Draft Kit - 0:12:17
D-Bro’s Ultimate Bust - 0:13:04
Outro - 0:16:10
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Welcome into fantasy pros. On the fantasy football side, I'm
Chris Welsh and today, who are some bus that we've
got to avoid? Well, we've got Derek Brown here to
tell us how and who to avoid.
Speaker 2 (00:12):
Now.
Speaker 1 (00:12):
Of course these guys might not be players that we like,
completely moving away from an undrafted list, but it's more
about we really don't like the value and obviously the
production based on the value is going to bust. So
how and who to avoid in the bus market. Deebro's
got you covered, and Deebro, let's just jump right into it.
Deebro's a bust. Number one for the season is who?
Speaker 2 (00:35):
Man?
Speaker 3 (00:35):
I know he just got paid and people are gonna
hate this. This is Kieren Williams. He's RB twelve, twenty
sixth overall in the ECR. And I can't rank Kien
Williams that high. I can't draft Kyen Williams that high.
And I know he was the RB ten last year.
Well she I get it, and I know he was
their guy. He was top two and snapshare opportunities, share
(00:56):
red zone touches for the Rams last year. I get
that he's a paid player now and congrats for Kyroen
on getting the fat check, but the efficiency wasn't.
Speaker 2 (01:07):
There last year.
Speaker 3 (01:08):
Wel I think Jarquest Hunter is going to factor into
this backfield. And if Kiraen Williams doesn't return with those
top five usage numbers in this offense, he doesn't have
the efficiency and he doesn't have the pass game utility
to bail him out. The rams have not been thrown
to the running backs. The Kien Williams is a receiving
That narrative died with him as a prospect in college.
(01:30):
It hasn't happened in the NFL. They've been bottom five
in target shared to the running back position, and I
don't see that changing in the year twenty twenty five.
So if Kyraen Williams is this volume dependent back that
we're like, oh, he's getting everything, that's really what fuels
his upside. If he's not that guy, If the ninety
five percent snap shares dropped to seventy percent, sixty five percent,
(01:54):
the Kyron Williams is an RB two. A volume field
are too for a player that last year ranked outside
the top thirty five running backs Welsh per Fantasy Points data,
an explosive run rate, misstackles, forced per attempt and yards
are to contact per attempt. This is not a player
that I want to spend an RB one or at
(02:16):
least pay an RB one price tag for in Fantasy
for twenty twenty five.
Speaker 2 (02:21):
I can't do it.
Speaker 1 (02:22):
Well, if if some butts were candies and nuts, we'd
all have a merry Christmas, as we were told, and
that it wasn't planned this way. But I'm kind of
on the opposite side of a lot of these bus Specifically,
this one is tough. I actually wanted to bust Kyron
Williams coming into this season.
Speaker 2 (02:38):
But all the.
Speaker 1 (02:39):
Same things you just talked about with Hunter are the
same things we said last year about Cooram and the
year before. I'm say you, I'm saying the narrative, the
public narrative of Kyra Williams every season, is that they
will stop using him. They will use this other great
back that's there, and they don't. From weeks ten on
(03:00):
he didn't play Week eighteen. From weeks ten through seventeen,
he was the tenth scoring running back in half PPR
double digit points scored every single week. From week twelve
on week ten on he was inside the top ten.
They just we haven't seen the McVeigh offense that has
decided to use some committee approach and they just paid
(03:22):
Kyron Williams. I get where you're going because it doesn't
feel great, especially in a past receiving RB world where
you just saw Devon ah Chan go and you know,
you see Jamir Gibbs, and you even look at like
Bucky Irving who's a pounder but he can catch the
ball at the backfield. And then you look at Kyen
Williams and you go, oh, I don't know if I
can do it, but he does do it in that offense.
(03:42):
He does it year after year this I mean again,
the entire second half of the season. He's a top
ten running back. They just paid him and it seems
like played over narratives. This is a tough one. I
think I'm a little bit closer at costs than outside
of a bust here, But I get where you're.
Speaker 2 (03:59):
Going with it.
Speaker 3 (04:00):
This feels like all the reasons that everybody wanted to
draft for Shod White outside of the contract. This feels
like all the reasons that everybody wanted to draft for
Shod White, and for Shod White was the guy until
enter super talented rookie explosive running back Bucky Irving last year,
(04:20):
and I think that that's what's going to happen to
Kyran Williams. Jerk Quest Hunter is going to factor into
this backfield and Kyron can still be the lead guy.
Bet An RB one price tag, I can't do it.
Speaker 1 (04:32):
Bus Number two is another running back, and I can
tell you as a little tease here in just a
tiny bit, Deebro's got his biggest bust of the twenty
twenty five season coming up, and that is saved for
the end. But we've got one more running back that
we're going to hit here, and this is another one.
I mean, I feel like you're picking on me, picking
on another guy that I like, and I'm actually gonna
(04:52):
just jump in here before you bust him out, and
it's Chuba Hubbard. Chuba Hubbard is going to be one
of your biggest bus as far as adyp gos top
twenty RB in there, Rico Dada was outed, which I
think or was brought in, which I think potentially has
some people concern. I would say, before you start to
bust him, I want to hear where your narrative goes
(05:12):
with it. Because Cuba from weeks ten through sixteen. He
didn't play in seventeen and eighteen, so I'm not going
to add that. So I'm obviously making a little bit
of case for myself here. But in half PPR, he
was the eleventh scoring running back. He was a top
twelve running back in fantasy essentially through the second half
of the season that he played. We also saw some
big volume. We saw the offense pick itself back up
(05:36):
is Rico Daudell coming into town enough to not make
him at least even like a solid floor RB. I think,
based on what we know what his upside is, which
we saw last year it being a top twelve running
back to where he's being drafted, I kind of see
him as a value. But what say you and why
is he a bust for you?
Speaker 3 (05:54):
So I think we cannot be expecting last year to
repat heat and I think this is a perfect scenario
for Chewba Hubbard. Last year was a perfect runout if
you look at what happened for Chewba Hubbard. So Miles
Sanders left week ten and he was out weeks ten
through seventeen. If you look at the beginning usage for
Chewba Hubbard of the season, I think that's closer to
(06:17):
what this team wants for Chewba Hubbard or what they
want for this backfield. So before so weeks one through three,
before I think Carolina figured out, Okay, Miles Sanders really
didn't have the juice anymore. Okay, Rico Doudele, Trevor etn
do have the juice. Before they realized that Sanders just
didn't have it anymore, you had Chewba Hubbard playing fifty
four to fifty eight percent of the snaps the red
(06:38):
zone rushing opportunities Hubbard had.
Speaker 2 (06:40):
Three and Miles Sanders had two. And I understand this
is a really.
Speaker 3 (06:43):
Small sample size, but even if you look at, Okay,
the first nine weeks of the season, when Miles Sanders there,
Chewba Hubbard wasn't playing this bell cow role. He only
ran a route on forty eight point six percent of dropbacks,
he had a nine point seven percent target chair and
he's not receiving, is not in his calling card. So
again a player, we're putting everything on Hubbard. He needs
(07:05):
to own the backfield and the early downs. And after
a season where they asked Chewba Hubbard and he answered
it and go out and be the bell cow. He's
a substandard receiving back. They go out and they add
Rico Daldo, who is coming off a surprising thousand yard
season of his own. Trevor Etn is as good, if
not a better, receiving back.
Speaker 2 (07:25):
Than both of those guys.
Speaker 3 (07:26):
So you look at the small sample before they realize Sanders.
Speaker 2 (07:30):
Just was cooked. This was a split backfield.
Speaker 3 (07:33):
After Sanders was out is really where we saw Hubbard
truly take off, because before that he wasn't getting a
ton of routes at least, I mean, he wasn't a
running fifty percent of routes on dropbacks. His pass game
utility wasn't great. He wasn't good as a receiver for
the entirety of the year. So Hubbard, I think this
was a perfect storm scenario for him last year. And
(07:53):
after that type of season, what did Carolina do? The
clearest picture, we have to look at what teams think
about players and how they want to build the roster
is through the draft and through free agency, and in
both of those outlets, Carolina said we need more running backs.
And yes, a lot of people say that for Jonathan
(08:14):
Brooks and say, well, yeh, that's because he's not gonna play.
Speaker 2 (08:17):
We also need to understand this could.
Speaker 3 (08:18):
Be an indictment upon who Chewba Hubbard is as a
player and what his role could be in twenty twenty
five with Ricodoudle eating into the early down rolls, maybe
the red zone, and Trevor Etn eating into the pass
game utility. And if all that comes to fruition, Hubbard
maybe is just a low end RB two or high
(08:39):
end RB three, if this backfield doesn't just get shifted
up or split up into two different pieces, but maybe three.
Speaker 1 (08:49):
If you believe Etn is gonna take a bite out
of this, I suppose I could see where you're going
and that the positive is he's already been drafted as
kind of a low RB two. And just a couple
things to just add in here, just in my argument
of him that weeks one through nine off, I guess
you were saying more of weeks one through three, but
weeks one through nine because I gave you my side
(09:09):
of ten through sixteen. Guess what weeks one through nine
he was a better running back. He was a seventh
scoring running back in half PPR during that time, and
on the receiving side, he had four catches or more
in five of the first six weeks, and he had
four catches in three straight games to end out the year,
so to get in the ball in his hands in
multiple spots. They did bring in some others and that
(09:31):
leads us to I think an interesting discussion how to
bust proof your teams, because we are solely talking on
how to avoid busts. In this you gave us two
players that you think are a bus You actually said
the first scenario here, Deebro is going to give three
tips to bust proof your team. And I'm going to
just set you up into the first one because I
just want you to rattle all three off. Debro. You said,
(09:52):
don't expect last year's stats to repeat or results to
repeat when you were talking about Chewba Hubbard, and that
is your number one in the first of the top
three on how to bust proof your team.
Speaker 3 (10:03):
Yeah, and this comes down to we see so many
people whether this is the RB one overall and ranks,
the wide receiver one, or how you want to look
at all this that people expect and they could say
that they don't, but the rankings and the narratives and
the consensus, the generalized consensus out there says otherwise, where
they people are expecting last year's results to repeat to
(10:24):
a certain extent, you're gonna find plus EV and better
EV and you're gonna avoid some of these busts. If
you already understand that, Yes, we say this every year
Welsh We get to Week seven and we say, wow,
things are so wildly different than what we thought coming
into the year. But that's not how we approach drafts.
That's not how a lot of people approach rankings. They say, oh, well,
(10:45):
I've seen that happen, That's what's gonna happen in the
next season.
Speaker 2 (10:48):
Except it doesn't. So I'm not telling people.
Speaker 3 (10:51):
To do that at every juncture of their draft, but
the points of the draft where you're expecting, okay, well,
the RB one overall last year probably isn't going to
be the r BE one overall of this year, or
the RB or the wide receiver one overall, or some
of these players that were stretch run heroes that don't
reprise those roles in the next season. So do not
expect last year's results to repeat. Also, you should not
(11:14):
be following blindly whatever site you're drafting on. You don't
need to be following these rankings and EIGHTP sets blindly.
You need to lean into content creators that you trust,
your own process and the homework that you're doing, whether
that's on Fantasy pros, using the draft Wizard, using cheat sheets,
(11:35):
following sharp people and then creating content and stuff, or
your own process. You need to follow that over following
these blind rankings and ADP sets that are on these sites,
which are just just a collection of the aggregate. And
that's following me in my third tip here, follow your
own process, follow people you trust, and fade the echo chamber.
(11:57):
So many people get in so much trouble with say.
Speaker 2 (12:00):
Yeah, but.
Speaker 3 (12:02):
That email right after the draft's gonna come out and
I'm gonna get laughed out of the room. I'm gonna
get a D plus and it's not gonna be good.
And follow your own process and follow voices and content
creators you trust.
Speaker 2 (12:15):
Don't follow all this stuff blandly.
Speaker 1 (12:17):
And if you're looking for the biggest bus, not just
in Debros, but the rest. If you're looking for the
biggest targets, you're looking for the best strategy. You're looking
for all the ranks to put into your process, not
just blindly following. We've got so much for you to
help create and better your process with the Fantasy Pros Draftkit.
Go and check it out today Fantasypros dot Com slash Kit.
(12:40):
You can check out our premium content on there as
well for free by claiming your three day trial of
Fantasy Pros Premium at Fantasypros dot Com slash Premium and heck,
if you guys want, you could save that free trial
right up until your draft day. If you've only got
one draft, you can use it. Check out the premium articles,
the premium content. But don't be afraid to go over
there Fantasypros dot Com slash because there's lots of great
(13:01):
stuff in there. Go and check it out today. This
leads us to the final in the Bust Tips d Bros.
Ultimate Bust of twenty twenty five, and I hate it.
I hate it, so say it. Get out of here
with this bust.
Speaker 3 (13:19):
Exavi your worthy, man, it's got to be Exavier worthy.
He is going as a top twenty four wide receiver
in a lot of different spots right on EASYR Wide
Receiver twenty or ADP Wide Receiver twenty six. I can't
draft him at that spot. I know Rashi Rice is
going to miss a little bit of time to suspension,
and that's still up in the air, but Worthy, I
think he's going to as long as Rice is on
(13:39):
the field. Whenever he's out there, I think he's going
to reprise the same role that he had last year,
and that's as a field stretcher in this offense, because
the only time we saw him really hit the ground
running is back into the season when he was in
the Rashive Rice role. Weeks one through twelve, this dude
was the wide receiver fifty one in Fantasy points per game.
He only drew a thirteen point nine percent target share
(14:01):
in a twelve point one eight odd and his design
target rate was at thirteen point two percent. He wasn't
getting open Welsh amongst one hundred and twenty four qualifying
wide receivers in that stretch. So that's twelve weeks of
the season, dude. Twelve weeks, one hundred and twenty four
wide receivers. He was ninety six in separation and one
hundred and eleventh in route win rate per Fantasy points data.
(14:22):
Those numbers are terrible, dude, and it's not until they
put him in that high end design target role that
he really kind of caught his caught fire towards the
end of the year, and that's the Rashi Rice role.
Speaker 2 (14:33):
So when Rice is.
Speaker 3 (14:34):
Back, Worthy is not playing this role. Worthy can play
the Rice role. Rice cannot play the Worthy role, and
Worthy is gonna be used to stretch the field. So
in weeks thirteen through seventeen, yeah, sure, he was the
wide receiver twenty one and fantasy points per game. His
aight ide dropped to six point three and his design
target rate went up to twenty five point six. I
can't draft a guy where I'm like, okay, if he's
(14:56):
in that role, but Rice is coming back, Uh, well,
he's gonna be good in that role, Okay, But when
Rice comes back, he's back into what field stretching role
and Mahomes has been quietly one of the worst deep
ball passers in the NFL over the last two years.
I just can't pay that type of price. If you
were telling me Xacer Worthy was going as a mid
wide receiver three, low end wide receiver three and stuff. Sure,
(15:16):
I'm willing to dive in on that, but too many
people are drafting him as a top twenty four wide
receiver right now or a top thirty wide receiver, and
because of the archetype of wide receiver he is, because
he hasn't been getting open and because of even if
you look at the size of Worthy, unless they're feeding
him gadget touches, what is he a guy you're gonna
expect to spike ten to twelve touchdowns and that save
(15:38):
his fantasy season?
Speaker 2 (15:39):
Probably not.
Speaker 3 (15:40):
He's a guy that's gonna max out and that seeks
to seven or eight range even in the best of circumstances,
because he doesn't have the size to be a red
zone guy. So no, I cannot draft Xavier Worthy where
he's going because Rashid Rice is the number one, the
clear number one in this offense and it's not Worthy.
Speaker 1 (15:58):
But when will he be there? Based on the Jordan
Adison suspension, I do not hold out hopes that Rashide
Rice is going to get a nice little small suspension,
but we'll have to see. That could play a big
role in it. Xavier Worthy Debro's biggest bus. What do
you guys think? Do you think that's the biggest bus
of the season. Drop a comment below and drop your
biggest bus plus if you've got any great tips for
people how to avoid bus on your team. These guys
(16:22):
that are going to ruin it. Again, not saying that
there are players that you're completely avoiding, but based on
value in the players that you're passing on a real
high opportunity to ruin your team. You guys, drop comments
below on what you think for Debro. I'm Chris Welsh.
Thank you guys for hanging out with us. Good luck
avoiding all of those busts in your drafts this coming season.
We'll talk to you next time right here on Fantasy Pros.
Speaker 3 (16:43):
Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football podcast.
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Pros
Welcome into fantasy pros. On the fantasy football side, I'm
Chris Welsh and today, who are some bus that we've
got to avoid? Well, we've got Derek Brown here to
tell us how and who to avoid.
Speaker 2 (00:12):
Now.
Speaker 1 (00:12):
Of course these guys might not be players that we like,
completely moving away from an undrafted list, but it's more
about we really don't like the value and obviously the
production based on the value is going to bust. So
how and who to avoid in the bus market. Deebro's
got you covered, and Deebro, let's just jump right into it.
Deebro's a bust. Number one for the season is who?
Speaker 2 (00:35):
Man?
Speaker 3 (00:35):
I know he just got paid and people are gonna
hate this. This is Kieren Williams. He's RB twelve, twenty
sixth overall in the ECR. And I can't rank Kien
Williams that high. I can't draft Kyen Williams that high.
And I know he was the RB ten last year.
Well she I get it, and I know he was
their guy. He was top two and snapshare opportunities, share
(00:56):
red zone touches for the Rams last year. I get
that he's a paid player now and congrats for Kyroen
on getting the fat check, but the efficiency wasn't.
Speaker 2 (01:07):
There last year.
Speaker 3 (01:08):
Wel I think Jarquest Hunter is going to factor into
this backfield. And if Kiraen Williams doesn't return with those
top five usage numbers in this offense, he doesn't have
the efficiency and he doesn't have the pass game utility
to bail him out. The rams have not been thrown
to the running backs. The Kien Williams is a receiving
That narrative died with him as a prospect in college.
(01:30):
It hasn't happened in the NFL. They've been bottom five
in target shared to the running back position, and I
don't see that changing in the year twenty twenty five.
So if Kyraen Williams is this volume dependent back that
we're like, oh, he's getting everything, that's really what fuels
his upside. If he's not that guy, If the ninety
five percent snap shares dropped to seventy percent, sixty five percent,
(01:54):
the Kyron Williams is an RB two. A volume field
are too for a player that last year ranked outside
the top thirty five running backs Welsh per Fantasy Points data,
an explosive run rate, misstackles, forced per attempt and yards
are to contact per attempt. This is not a player
that I want to spend an RB one or at
(02:16):
least pay an RB one price tag for in Fantasy
for twenty twenty five.
Speaker 2 (02:21):
I can't do it.
Speaker 1 (02:22):
Well, if if some butts were candies and nuts, we'd
all have a merry Christmas, as we were told, and
that it wasn't planned this way. But I'm kind of
on the opposite side of a lot of these bus Specifically,
this one is tough. I actually wanted to bust Kyron
Williams coming into this season.
Speaker 2 (02:38):
But all the.
Speaker 1 (02:39):
Same things you just talked about with Hunter are the
same things we said last year about Cooram and the
year before. I'm say you, I'm saying the narrative, the
public narrative of Kyra Williams every season, is that they
will stop using him. They will use this other great
back that's there, and they don't. From weeks ten on
(03:00):
he didn't play Week eighteen. From weeks ten through seventeen,
he was the tenth scoring running back in half PPR
double digit points scored every single week. From week twelve
on week ten on he was inside the top ten.
They just we haven't seen the McVeigh offense that has
decided to use some committee approach and they just paid
(03:22):
Kyron Williams. I get where you're going because it doesn't
feel great, especially in a past receiving RB world where
you just saw Devon ah Chan go and you know,
you see Jamir Gibbs, and you even look at like
Bucky Irving who's a pounder but he can catch the
ball at the backfield. And then you look at Kyen
Williams and you go, oh, I don't know if I
can do it, but he does do it in that offense.
(03:42):
He does it year after year this I mean again,
the entire second half of the season. He's a top
ten running back. They just paid him and it seems
like played over narratives. This is a tough one. I
think I'm a little bit closer at costs than outside
of a bust here, But I get where you're.
Speaker 2 (03:59):
Going with it.
Speaker 3 (04:00):
This feels like all the reasons that everybody wanted to
draft for Shod White outside of the contract. This feels
like all the reasons that everybody wanted to draft for
Shod White, and for Shod White was the guy until
enter super talented rookie explosive running back Bucky Irving last year,
(04:20):
and I think that that's what's going to happen to
Kyran Williams. Jerk Quest Hunter is going to factor into
this backfield and Kyron can still be the lead guy.
Bet An RB one price tag, I can't do it.
Speaker 1 (04:32):
Bus Number two is another running back, and I can
tell you as a little tease here in just a
tiny bit, Deebro's got his biggest bust of the twenty
twenty five season coming up, and that is saved for
the end. But we've got one more running back that
we're going to hit here, and this is another one.
I mean, I feel like you're picking on me, picking
on another guy that I like, and I'm actually gonna
(04:52):
just jump in here before you bust him out, and
it's Chuba Hubbard. Chuba Hubbard is going to be one
of your biggest bus as far as adyp gos top
twenty RB in there, Rico Dada was outed, which I
think or was brought in, which I think potentially has
some people concern. I would say, before you start to
bust him, I want to hear where your narrative goes
(05:12):
with it. Because Cuba from weeks ten through sixteen. He
didn't play in seventeen and eighteen, so I'm not going
to add that. So I'm obviously making a little bit
of case for myself here. But in half PPR, he
was the eleventh scoring running back. He was a top
twelve running back in fantasy essentially through the second half
of the season that he played. We also saw some
big volume. We saw the offense pick itself back up
(05:36):
is Rico Daudell coming into town enough to not make
him at least even like a solid floor RB. I think,
based on what we know what his upside is, which
we saw last year it being a top twelve running
back to where he's being drafted, I kind of see
him as a value. But what say you and why
is he a bust for you?
Speaker 3 (05:54):
So I think we cannot be expecting last year to
repat heat and I think this is a perfect scenario
for Chewba Hubbard. Last year was a perfect runout if
you look at what happened for Chewba Hubbard. So Miles
Sanders left week ten and he was out weeks ten
through seventeen. If you look at the beginning usage for
Chewba Hubbard of the season, I think that's closer to
(06:17):
what this team wants for Chewba Hubbard or what they
want for this backfield. So before so weeks one through three,
before I think Carolina figured out, Okay, Miles Sanders really
didn't have the juice anymore. Okay, Rico Doudele, Trevor etn
do have the juice. Before they realized that Sanders just
didn't have it anymore, you had Chewba Hubbard playing fifty
four to fifty eight percent of the snaps the red
(06:38):
zone rushing opportunities Hubbard had.
Speaker 2 (06:40):
Three and Miles Sanders had two. And I understand this
is a really.
Speaker 3 (06:43):
Small sample size, but even if you look at, Okay,
the first nine weeks of the season, when Miles Sanders there,
Chewba Hubbard wasn't playing this bell cow role. He only
ran a route on forty eight point six percent of dropbacks,
he had a nine point seven percent target chair and
he's not receiving, is not in his calling card. So
again a player, we're putting everything on Hubbard. He needs
(07:05):
to own the backfield and the early downs. And after
a season where they asked Chewba Hubbard and he answered
it and go out and be the bell cow. He's
a substandard receiving back. They go out and they add
Rico Daldo, who is coming off a surprising thousand yard
season of his own. Trevor Etn is as good, if
not a better, receiving back.
Speaker 2 (07:25):
Than both of those guys.
Speaker 3 (07:26):
So you look at the small sample before they realize Sanders.
Speaker 2 (07:30):
Just was cooked. This was a split backfield.
Speaker 3 (07:33):
After Sanders was out is really where we saw Hubbard
truly take off, because before that he wasn't getting a
ton of routes at least, I mean, he wasn't a
running fifty percent of routes on dropbacks. His pass game
utility wasn't great. He wasn't good as a receiver for
the entirety of the year. So Hubbard, I think this
was a perfect storm scenario for him last year. And
(07:53):
after that type of season, what did Carolina do? The
clearest picture, we have to look at what teams think
about players and how they want to build the roster
is through the draft and through free agency, and in
both of those outlets, Carolina said we need more running backs.
And yes, a lot of people say that for Jonathan
(08:14):
Brooks and say, well, yeh, that's because he's not gonna play.
Speaker 2 (08:17):
We also need to understand this could.
Speaker 3 (08:18):
Be an indictment upon who Chewba Hubbard is as a
player and what his role could be in twenty twenty
five with Ricodoudle eating into the early down rolls, maybe
the red zone, and Trevor Etn eating into the pass
game utility. And if all that comes to fruition, Hubbard
maybe is just a low end RB two or high
(08:39):
end RB three, if this backfield doesn't just get shifted
up or split up into two different pieces, but maybe three.
Speaker 1 (08:49):
If you believe Etn is gonna take a bite out
of this, I suppose I could see where you're going
and that the positive is he's already been drafted as
kind of a low RB two. And just a couple
things to just add in here, just in my argument
of him that weeks one through nine off, I guess
you were saying more of weeks one through three, but
weeks one through nine because I gave you my side
(09:09):
of ten through sixteen. Guess what weeks one through nine
he was a better running back. He was a seventh
scoring running back in half PPR during that time, and
on the receiving side, he had four catches or more
in five of the first six weeks, and he had
four catches in three straight games to end out the year,
so to get in the ball in his hands in
multiple spots. They did bring in some others and that
(09:31):
leads us to I think an interesting discussion how to
bust proof your teams, because we are solely talking on
how to avoid busts. In this you gave us two
players that you think are a bus You actually said
the first scenario here, Deebro is going to give three
tips to bust proof your team. And I'm going to
just set you up into the first one because I
just want you to rattle all three off. Debro. You said,
(09:52):
don't expect last year's stats to repeat or results to
repeat when you were talking about Chewba Hubbard, and that
is your number one in the first of the top
three on how to bust proof your team.
Speaker 3 (10:03):
Yeah, and this comes down to we see so many
people whether this is the RB one overall and ranks,
the wide receiver one, or how you want to look
at all this that people expect and they could say
that they don't, but the rankings and the narratives and
the consensus, the generalized consensus out there says otherwise, where
they people are expecting last year's results to repeat to
(10:24):
a certain extent, you're gonna find plus EV and better
EV and you're gonna avoid some of these busts. If
you already understand that, Yes, we say this every year
Welsh We get to Week seven and we say, wow,
things are so wildly different than what we thought coming
into the year. But that's not how we approach drafts.
That's not how a lot of people approach rankings. They say, oh, well,
(10:45):
I've seen that happen, That's what's gonna happen in the
next season.
Speaker 2 (10:48):
Except it doesn't. So I'm not telling people.
Speaker 3 (10:51):
To do that at every juncture of their draft, but
the points of the draft where you're expecting, okay, well,
the RB one overall last year probably isn't going to
be the r BE one overall of this year, or
the RB or the wide receiver one overall, or some
of these players that were stretch run heroes that don't
reprise those roles in the next season. So do not
expect last year's results to repeat. Also, you should not
(11:14):
be following blindly whatever site you're drafting on. You don't
need to be following these rankings and EIGHTP sets blindly.
You need to lean into content creators that you trust,
your own process and the homework that you're doing, whether
that's on Fantasy pros, using the draft Wizard, using cheat sheets,
(11:35):
following sharp people and then creating content and stuff, or
your own process. You need to follow that over following
these blind rankings and ADP sets that are on these sites,
which are just just a collection of the aggregate. And
that's following me in my third tip here, follow your
own process, follow people you trust, and fade the echo chamber.
(11:57):
So many people get in so much trouble with say.
Speaker 2 (12:00):
Yeah, but.
Speaker 3 (12:02):
That email right after the draft's gonna come out and
I'm gonna get laughed out of the room. I'm gonna
get a D plus and it's not gonna be good.
And follow your own process and follow voices and content
creators you trust.
Speaker 2 (12:15):
Don't follow all this stuff blandly.
Speaker 1 (12:17):
And if you're looking for the biggest bus, not just
in Debros, but the rest. If you're looking for the
biggest targets, you're looking for the best strategy. You're looking
for all the ranks to put into your process, not
just blindly following. We've got so much for you to
help create and better your process with the Fantasy Pros Draftkit.
Go and check it out today Fantasypros dot Com slash Kit.
(12:40):
You can check out our premium content on there as
well for free by claiming your three day trial of
Fantasy Pros Premium at Fantasypros dot Com slash Premium and heck,
if you guys want, you could save that free trial
right up until your draft day. If you've only got
one draft, you can use it. Check out the premium articles,
the premium content. But don't be afraid to go over
there Fantasypros dot Com slash because there's lots of great
(13:01):
stuff in there. Go and check it out today. This
leads us to the final in the Bust Tips d Bros.
Ultimate Bust of twenty twenty five, and I hate it.
I hate it, so say it. Get out of here
with this bust.
Speaker 3 (13:19):
Exavi your worthy, man, it's got to be Exavier worthy.
He is going as a top twenty four wide receiver
in a lot of different spots right on EASYR Wide
Receiver twenty or ADP Wide Receiver twenty six. I can't
draft him at that spot. I know Rashi Rice is
going to miss a little bit of time to suspension,
and that's still up in the air, but Worthy, I
think he's going to as long as Rice is on
(13:39):
the field. Whenever he's out there, I think he's going
to reprise the same role that he had last year,
and that's as a field stretcher in this offense, because
the only time we saw him really hit the ground
running is back into the season when he was in
the Rashive Rice role. Weeks one through twelve, this dude
was the wide receiver fifty one in Fantasy points per game.
He only drew a thirteen point nine percent target share
(14:01):
in a twelve point one eight odd and his design
target rate was at thirteen point two percent. He wasn't
getting open Welsh amongst one hundred and twenty four qualifying
wide receivers in that stretch. So that's twelve weeks of
the season, dude. Twelve weeks, one hundred and twenty four
wide receivers. He was ninety six in separation and one
hundred and eleventh in route win rate per Fantasy points data.
(14:22):
Those numbers are terrible, dude, and it's not until they
put him in that high end design target role that
he really kind of caught his caught fire towards the
end of the year, and that's the Rashi Rice role.
Speaker 2 (14:33):
So when Rice is.
Speaker 3 (14:34):
Back, Worthy is not playing this role. Worthy can play
the Rice role. Rice cannot play the Worthy role, and
Worthy is gonna be used to stretch the field. So
in weeks thirteen through seventeen, yeah, sure, he was the
wide receiver twenty one and fantasy points per game. His
aight ide dropped to six point three and his design
target rate went up to twenty five point six. I
can't draft a guy where I'm like, okay, if he's
(14:56):
in that role, but Rice is coming back, Uh, well,
he's gonna be good in that role, Okay, But when
Rice comes back, he's back into what field stretching role
and Mahomes has been quietly one of the worst deep
ball passers in the NFL over the last two years.
I just can't pay that type of price. If you
were telling me Xacer Worthy was going as a mid
wide receiver three, low end wide receiver three and stuff. Sure,
(15:16):
I'm willing to dive in on that, but too many
people are drafting him as a top twenty four wide
receiver right now or a top thirty wide receiver, and
because of the archetype of wide receiver he is, because
he hasn't been getting open and because of even if
you look at the size of Worthy, unless they're feeding
him gadget touches, what is he a guy you're gonna
expect to spike ten to twelve touchdowns and that save
(15:38):
his fantasy season?
Speaker 2 (15:39):
Probably not.
Speaker 3 (15:40):
He's a guy that's gonna max out and that seeks
to seven or eight range even in the best of circumstances,
because he doesn't have the size to be a red
zone guy. So no, I cannot draft Xavier Worthy where
he's going because Rashid Rice is the number one, the
clear number one in this offense and it's not Worthy.
Speaker 1 (15:58):
But when will he be there? Based on the Jordan
Adison suspension, I do not hold out hopes that Rashide
Rice is going to get a nice little small suspension,
but we'll have to see. That could play a big
role in it. Xavier Worthy Debro's biggest bus. What do
you guys think? Do you think that's the biggest bus
of the season. Drop a comment below and drop your
biggest bus plus if you've got any great tips for
people how to avoid bus on your team. These guys
(16:22):
that are going to ruin it. Again, not saying that
there are players that you're completely avoiding, but based on
value in the players that you're passing on a real
high opportunity to ruin your team. You guys, drop comments
below on what you think for Debro. I'm Chris Welsh.
Thank you guys for hanging out with us. Good luck
avoiding all of those busts in your drafts this coming season.
We'll talk to you next time right here on Fantasy Pros.
Speaker 3 (16:43):
Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football podcast.
If you love the show, the best freeway to support
us is by leaving a positive review on Apple podcasts
at fantasypros dot com, slash review, or on Spotify. Follow
us on x, Instagram and TikTok at Fantasy Pros. Subscribe
to our YouTube channel at YouTube dot com slash Fantasy
Pros
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Andrew Erickson
Joe Pisapia
Derek Brown
Thor Nystrom
Ryan Wormeli
Pat Fitzmaurice
Matthew Freedman
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