Does George Kittle Keep Cooking? | 12 Risky Players to Target or Avoid in Drafts (Ep. 1593) - FantasyPros - Fantasy Football Podcast

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Hello, everybody, Welcome into the Fantasy Pros Football Podcast. I
and Ryan Warmley joined today by Pat fitz Morris and
by Jake Seeley. Fitz, I am back from vacation. We
are talking about some risky players to either target or
avoid in twenty twenty five. You guys are gonna be
laying out some names that are risky for various reasons,
some going earlier in the draft, some more mid round

(00:23):
selections at this point, and you guys will be deciding
if this is a player that we are comfortable targeting
where they are going in drafts, or if we would
prefer to avoid them here in the twenty twenty five
draft season. Pat, how are you doing here? We are
in mid June, so barreling along with the offseason.

Speaker 2 (00:38):
We are barreling longworm and it's summer, so like we're
getting hot weather in the Midwest. Twitch. You know, I'm
not a big fan of so I just kind of
want to stay inside and work makes it easier to
get things done. But what about you? You were on
the Atlantic coast? The big question did you get any
good seafood on vacation?

Speaker 1 (00:55):
Oh? I sure did, Fitz. We went to the beach
for part of my trip with me and my parents
and then two of my nephews, and we went to
this crab house in Rehoboth Beach where it's sixty dollars
for all you can eat crabs. You have a two
hour limit, and I was like, I will you will
lose money on this deal. I will eat enough crabs

(01:17):
to ensure that, and boy did. There's just nothing better
than bringing out a tray of steamed crabs, like drowning
in Old Bay, pbr to the side and just like
going to town and knowing there's no limit to these.
You can need as many you want. So that's like
basically my favorite meal of the year, and I try
and get in one of those crab feests pretty much
every year. But it was a great trip because I

(01:38):
also went up to the New Hampshire area to visit
some friends, and we drove up to Maine, which I
had never been to before. Forty second state off the list.
I only have eight to go to hit to all fifty.
And we got some lobster rolls driving up the main coast,
so I got some crab going on in the Maryland
Delaware area. I got lobster going on up in the Northeast.
It was a great time.

Speaker 2 (01:59):
And you got to sit atop the Green Monster at
Fenway Park.

Speaker 1 (02:02):
I was I got to sit first row of the
Green Monster for a Red Sox game. Yeah. It was
my buddy just his job has some sponsorships with Fenway,
and so he reached out when I was visiting. He's
not even a big baseball fan. He just said, hey,
if there's any tickets that we have that aren't being
used by like a client or something. I was just
wondering because I have a friend in town who likes baseball,

(02:22):
and they're like, oh, yeah, sure, and they send him
the tickets without saying anything. They were front row of
the Green Monster. It was a wild experience, very very fun,
cool bucket list moment, even as somebody who I hate
both the Yankees and the Red Sox, so that was
kind of an interesting experience. Jake, how are you doing?

Speaker 3 (02:39):
I'm doing good. After all that, I have too many
thoughts and here, I'll just get you to turn me
off the show right now. Just make my video. Goo
blank is crab and lobster overrated? No wrong, They have
no flavor without the butter or the seasoning or they're like,
if you just eat crab and lobster. By myself, it's
tasteless meat.

Speaker 1 (02:59):
They brought out like a you know, big thing of
butter for the crab feast and I didn't even touch it.
I didn't need the butter.

Speaker 3 (03:05):
I okay, I give you some respect for that. Like
I love crab cakes, but that's because there's flavoring and
breading and the seasoning in there everything like that.

Speaker 1 (03:11):
I'm actually with you on lobster. There's no reason for
lobster to be as expensive as it is. It's not
worth that usually. I mean, you go to Maine like
you want to kind of experience that. So I was
happy to do it. But in general, I actually I
like lobster, but I do think it's overrated. Crab like
I will I will hear no, this is an indignity there,
I will hear no.

Speaker 3 (03:28):
Are you a soft shell crab person?

Speaker 2 (03:30):
Uh?

Speaker 1 (03:30):
Yeah, I'm really I'm really not picky with crabs like
I like obviously like I like a Maryland blue blue crab.

Speaker 3 (03:36):
Legit the first time we're gonna get past it. The
first time I ever had. I live in Virginia, freaking
Maryland right out there, everything in Chesapeake Bay. It was
like the first time I ever had soft shell crab.
I thought that was just the name of the crab.
I didn't know they actually cooked the freaking shell and
you like, and I've been into it was like this
most disgusting thing I've ever had.

Speaker 1 (03:54):
I have not had it nearly as often, I will admit,
but I haven't disliked it when I have had it.
Fits quick, quick, because I know I'm sure everybody's really
annoyed by this, but quick thoughts on lobster crab overrated.

Speaker 2 (04:06):
Love shellfish and soft shell crab. Yes, I knew what
I was getting into the first time I had it,
but I still love Like sushi rolls with soft shell
crab and a soft shell crab pole boy slathered like
Cajun mayonnaise is one of the best things ever.

Speaker 1 (04:20):
If crab is my favorite food, then like shrimp is
number two, which I know we weren't talking about, but
just in general, like that seafood like crustacean kind of
type of seafood style, Like I could eat that every
day of the rest of my life and not get
tired of it. So very very fun trip for me.
Let us know in the comments if you have any
strong thoughts on Crab or Lobster, is it overrated or not?
Thank you for everybody letting us take that little detour here.

(04:42):
Let's jump into the show. A quick reminder that all
of our twenty twenty five consensus rankings and tears can
be found at fantasypros dot com slash rankings. So what
we're gonna do is, you guys are going to to
kind of present a player here. We'll start with some
of the early round guys, and we'll do some of
the mid round guys and you kind of lay out
why they are risky this season, and then we'll just
that's a risk we're willing to take on or that

(05:02):
we want to avoid. Jake, why don't you get us off?

Speaker 2 (05:05):
Yeah?

Speaker 3 (05:05):
I think this is somebody we've talked about briefly before,
and it was more an aspect of the wide receivers,
which I'm actually going to focus on one of the
wide receivers for this team too. But I think George
Kittle a lot of people are seeing as an early
round risk top forty, so kind of around the three
four turn, and I think I understand why. Most of
it's not just the wide receivers, as people are like, oh, well,

(05:26):
look at what happened with Christian McCaffrey two years ago,
and then what happened to George Kittle that year was
George Kittle was very up and down that year, mostly
because Christian McCaffrey is catching a ton of balls. That
was Braindon iu Ca and Deebo Samuel obviously, but you
have that whole consideration of McCaffrey's going to be evolved,
all healthy, and then you have two wide receivers and
one being potentially Kittle, like a wide receiver in Kittle

(05:48):
or two wide receivers and Kittle gets let somebody's getting
left out, like all four aren't going to eat every
single week. So I think that's the risk that everybody's seen.
I'm a little bit different than that. I actually think
there's plenty of upside with Kittle. I think the whole
conversation of Jenny's versus Pearcel and all the rest and
whether or not you comes back healthy. And I am
on Christian McCaffrey. The hype train been so this entire

(06:09):
offseason as long as he's healthy. But I think that
if you're looking at this for Kittle and the safety
blanket and the potential to hit one hundred and ten
targets and finally finish top three. But I say finally
finished as the number one tight end because Travis Kelsey
has always beat him in years past. I think that's
in play, and I think that's why I'm okay with
George Kittle here inside. And I actually think that if

(06:30):
I'm drafting, at least the drafts I've done so far,
I'm passing on Bowers and McBride, and I think I'm
getting very similar value in George Kittle.

Speaker 2 (06:37):
Two to three rounds.

Speaker 1 (06:38):
Later, where is the round where you say the risk
is good, I want to target him.

Speaker 3 (06:43):
Here is I think his ADP right now, late third,
early four. It is okay. So like Bowers is going
around the one two turn, probably fits campaigning for that
every chance he gets. And then you see McBride usually
in the second and that's why I say, you know what,
around and a half two rounds later, I'm gonna hammer
Kittle every single time. Not that all being said, if
Kittle climbs into the two three turn, then I would

(07:04):
actually be more likely to jump on the Bowers McBride
train than I would be and probably just wait for
tight ends later, but at least at this point, at
this cost, when you see around Kenneth Walker, DJ Moore,
who have concerns, I know we're actually going to talk
about one of those names, you know, the Terry McLaurin.
I love him, but still like when he's in that group,
that's where I think Kittle deserves to go, and I'm
gonna take him quite a few times in that spot fits.

Speaker 1 (07:26):
I'm curious what you think, because I agree that I
think it's a very reasonable and probably a very smart
strategy to say, rather than taking Bowers and McBride early,
you can get something close to that with Kittle. However,
in just strictly rankings, like ignoring cost, I do see
a gap between those top two and Kittle, and maybe
that will not be proven wrong. That speaks more to
how highly I think of those two and less about

(07:48):
trying to fade Kittle. Obviously. Do you see at his
ADP pat Kittle as a player to target or void?

Speaker 2 (07:55):
I like him as a target, and I have him
ranked ahead of Trey McBride, so like he's my tight
end two, and like since his second NFL season, Kittle's
seasonal finishes and half point PPR Fantasy points per game
are tight end three, tight end two, tight end three,
tight end four, tight end two, tight end five, and
tight end one last year. So pretty dependable, pretty consistent. Uh,

(08:21):
he has had some injuries because he plays like a
guy who is just trying to, you know, run through
an army. But like, people get a little worried about
the uneven nature of Kittle's production sometimes, and there are
games where he is used heavily as a blocker, doesn't
run as many routes, leads to some dud games here

(08:42):
and there, but like every tight end has dud games.
The good games for Kittle are phenomenal and like are
almost week winning by himself, and like you are gonna
get like close to half a dozen smash games out
of George Kittle pretty much if he stays reasonably healthy
in any given season. So yeah, I think Kittle is

(09:04):
well worth it.

Speaker 1 (09:05):
All right, So you guys are in lockstep there. I
didn't realize you had him ranked ahead of McBride. I
definitely have those reversed. But I think at cost, like
I said, it's a very good case to make for Kittle.
Let's go to your first player here fits.

Speaker 2 (09:16):
It's James Cook, And the red flag for me isn't
really James Cook's contract impass. He reportedly wants fifteen millionaire,
the Bills don't see him inclined to give him a
new deal, and Cook actually did show up for the
team's mini camp last week, so that might be a
non issue. The red flag for me is the near
certainty of major touchdown regression for Cook, Who's touchdown totals

(09:40):
over his first three seasons three six, eighteen. So which
number looks like the outlier there? I'm gonna bet on eighteen.
Cook's ADP doesn't seem that unreasonable. He's like a high
end RB two, but like he would need to keep
scoring touchdowns on the regular because Cook weighs what less

(10:01):
than two hundred pounds, so there's no real workhorse potential
with him. His single season hind carries is two thirty seven.
He's a good pass catcher, but he's not going to
be a huge needle mover in that area. Just because
Josh Allen doesn't check down to his running backs very often,
he would prefer to run himself. Cook has averaged thirty
eight catches over the last two years and if the
contract thing does become an issue, like the Bills could

(10:24):
very easily pivot to second year guy Ray Davis, who's
pretty good player himself. When Cook missed a game with
turf tow last year against the Jets, Davis had one
hundred and fifty two yards from scrimmage in that game. Like,
I don't think Cook is grossly overpriced, but I'm kind
of steering around him at running back fourteen. Like we
know how often Josh Allen calls his own number near

(10:44):
the goal line, Like I don't think Cook is getting
anywhere near eighteen touchdowns, and like I'd bet against double digits.

Speaker 1 (10:54):
So this is a risk that you are tending to
avoid here, I fits. What do you say, Jake?

Speaker 3 (11:00):
Yeah, I'm with him on this one. You know I did,
Like so on the Athletic the Customers Well projections where
you can go in and take my projections to say
I think this and here's a good chance, because you
could say, no, I think James Cosket's going to get
two hundred and eighty touches this year. Jake and Fitz
are both wrong, and I think the touchdown rate is
going to continue. You can play with all those things
but they just give you early. Look, I still have

(11:22):
them even for eight rushing touchdowns, which is I think
is a pretty strong mark for most running backs, let alone.
What Fits brought up about the inconsistency of James Cook
the outlier being last year. But when you say eight
and then two receiving, because again he's not going to
see a ton as Fits brought up again, I gonna
echo a lot of what he's saying. So ten total
touchdowns still early. He's in a group he fell in

(11:42):
at RB sixteen for me. But the thing is what
the important part is if you look at the tier
which I am right now, Hubbard at fourteen is two
to eight, he's two hundred, that being James Cook, and
then you drop down to RB twenty, who's still one
to eighty seven. It's more like what Fits is saying
is not even like that we hate James Cook? Is
that just at that cost? Like I could just wait
around draft another wide receiver and get somebody I think

(12:03):
is in the same group with the same risk and
floor situation as he is.

Speaker 1 (12:09):
Yeah, I think I think this is a clean sweet honestly,
Like I also think that where he is going just
with some of the other options around there, Like, it's
really hard to not look at that touchdown total as
an outlier, and I almost like, I don't want to oversimplify,
you know, analysis of an important player in fantasy, but like,
it's just impossible for me to think there's not significant

(12:30):
regression coming.

Speaker 3 (12:30):
In comparison, real quick, very similar touches, very similar yards,
very similar touchdowns Alvin Kamara. But Alvin Kamara for me
is almost thirty points higher because why almost triple the receptions.
And so I think that again, if you still play
a non PPR, I think James Cook would get a
little bit of a bump in that aspect.

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Speaker 1 (14:17):
All right, Jake, who's your next player here?

Speaker 3 (14:19):
Yeah, I'm focusing on the tier here situation. That's pretty
much going to be a big argument for against DJ Moore.
I think that Dj Moore the risk of what this
team might do this year with their options at wide receiver,
what Mad Johnson might like. The talk of who's his
amal Ron Saint Brown, which I'm not even that concerned,
like he's going to find exactly as one for one

(14:40):
a Monron Saint Brown. It's just we've already heard it
from the wide receivers themselves have talked about during OTA.
Is just like we don't know, we're all going to
be used. It's going to be a lot of fun,
which is good because forget's good for Caleb Williams, but
it's bad for us In trying to figure out is
DJ Moore still going to be DJ Moore who kind
of hangs around that mid to low wide receiver two range,

(15:03):
and he's still going right there. There's like seemingly no
cost risk bringing his value down in drafts, which that's
my issue. He's right now on Fantasy pros. He's the
first wide receiver in Tier four. I am never going
to take the first player in a tier if I
can avoid it, and my tier four would actually go
even deeper than it does here with including like Waddle
and Judy and players like that. But point being is,

(15:25):
why take Dj Moore where he's going is in that
mid fourth round range when you can still wait another
round or two and get Metcalf, wait another round or two,
get Jamison Williams back on the lines where Ben Johnson
used to be. Just a lot of names, Chris Godwin,
We've talked about on previous shows, and that's my biggest
thing is that DJ Moore could. Honestly, I don't think
it will be, but there's a world where he ends

(15:45):
up the third most valuable behind Odoonza and Burden just
because of what Ben Johnson wants to do. And Ben
Johnson was the one that drafted Burdon, not the other two.
So I just think there's a lot of factors. What
DJ Moore being the number one on this team surprised me,
obviously not, but we are talking risk, and I just
don't think his price is associating the risk that even
if he's still the first, maybe it's just by committee

(16:08):
and the first best wide receiver in this team is
only wide receiver twenty eight, just because that's even before
factoring Colston Lovelin and all the rest of that.

Speaker 1 (16:16):
I was hoping to want to disagree with you guys more,
but this is another one where I think you're like
spot on. I just don't feel like the risk is
being baked into the price here. But there is clear
risk given everything you laid out, you know, the ability
of Kayleb Williams, the new offense, all the mouths to
feed like. It feels like he's being priced pretty darn

(16:37):
close to his ceiling and not at all taking any
consideration his floor fits. Do you see it differently?

Speaker 2 (16:45):
What is that price for him? Do you have ADP
in front of Is he a round wide receiver twenty twenty?

Speaker 1 (16:50):
Yeah, he's ranked twenty yeah, ADP oride receiver twenty one.

Speaker 2 (16:54):
Yeah. So I'm a little torn because I think DJ
mo Yeah, So, I'm like, Moore's fantastic player, amazing after
the catch, I'm optimistic that Ben Johnson can can fix
the Bears offense, So I feel like I want DJ
Moore in at least one of my teams this year.

(17:17):
The thing that makes me nervous is that Moore just
seemed so out of sorts last year. Just bad body language,
seemed like he was unhappy, and like the chemistry between
DJ Moore and Caleb Williams just seemed off all year.
I mean, maybe Ben Johnson can remedy that. So I'm
mixed here, really believe in the talent, don't have a
terrible issue with the price, but I agree, I'm not

(17:40):
like all in on DJ Moore this year, So I
think I mostly agree with you guys here.

Speaker 1 (17:45):
He didn't have a single game with double digit receptions
last year, and now there's a lot more mouths to
feed in the offense.

Speaker 2 (17:53):
Are there, though? I mean it was Keenan Allen. Keenan
Allen's anymore. Not late in the year, man, I mean
like he picked it up towards the end of the season.

Speaker 1 (18:04):
I feel like there's more options in the offense this year.
I guess maybe a better way to put it, like,
maybe not as many clear mouths to feed, if you
want to give that credit. To Keenan Allen, but you
know their first two picks being pass catchers, Like I
think that matters with a new regime and a.

Speaker 3 (18:19):
Lean towards the bad. By the way, I know what
you're saying fits, but like if you remember, most of
those games came with like a bevy of targets, Like
it took like fifteen targets to get Keenan out of
it again.

Speaker 2 (18:29):
Sure, and I mean it's I guess the one contention
you could make if if you're trying to fade the
too many mouths to feed thing, is that like, if
if this offense is a lot better than it was
last year, it's going to be easier to feed all
those mouths, you know. I mean last year that the
offense was just kind of a train wreck.

Speaker 1 (18:46):
So this is going to be an offense that you
want to get right on draft day too.

Speaker 3 (18:51):
Yeah. Yeah, Well the thing I go back to it,
I'm glad you said that fits because I think that's
like a crutch argument. People might go both ways. Too
many miles to feed, nobody else to throw the ball to,
like the other the spectrums and what it always makes
me think back to go to is Tyler Boyd is
the third best wide receiver for the Bengals. Best season
was like wide receiver thirty eight. And that's just it
takes so much for that third option to even become relevant.

(19:15):
And so I don't disagree with you much. Again, it's
just then I think the risk needs to just bring
him down a round or two, probably just around in.

Speaker 1 (19:23):
General fits how much weight do you put on We
can move on from DG Moore in a second, but
how much weight do you put on in year one
with the new quarterback? The lack of chemistry, like not
Caleb's struggles in general, but specifically the fact that he
wasn't connecting with DJ Moore. Do you tend to see
that as hey, it was year one, they're kind of,
you know, figuring it out together. Or do you tend

(19:43):
to see that as a long term red flag?

Speaker 2 (19:46):
It kind of depends. Like I know, when Chris Olave
and Derek Carr had their first season together, it just
seemed like the timing was a little off, but it
seemed like they were kind of close, and I was
still willing to invest the year f that in Chris Olave,
but something about the body language and just DJ Moore's
demeanor last year was things were strange. So I am

(20:10):
a little worried about that, And that's probably my single
biggest concern about DJ Moore this season.

Speaker 1 (20:15):
Let's go to your next player fits.

Speaker 2 (20:17):
All right, it's Rashi Rice and Race Like. The concern
for me is the late season emergence of Xavier Worthy.
And I know a lot of people think Rashei Rice
is going to go right back to the same role
he had. He was terrific in twenty twenty three and
early in twenty twenty four, came out of the gate
really hot last year, but that was when Patrick Mahomes

(20:40):
had basically Rashi Rice and Travis Kelcey and no one
else to throw to. Like Xavier Worthy didn't get it
going last year until after Rice got hurt, and that injury,
by the way, torn ELCL and PCL plus surgery to
repair a hamstring tendon. Like, it's possible Rash is not
one hundred percent the same guy, least at the start

(21:00):
of this season. But back to the Worthy thing. If
you exclude Week eighteen, when the Chiefs were resting starters
and Worthy played one snap, he had at least five
catches in the Chiefs last eight games playoffs included like
Worthy had fifty catches over Kansas City's final eight games,
Like that's one hundred plus catch pace. And there seems

(21:22):
to be this assumption that Rice is going back to
the same role he had before the injury, when he
was a super high volume receiver, Like it's possible. I guess.
I just have a hard time believing that Worthy's emergence
doesn't change the target distribution in Kansas City.

Speaker 1 (21:37):
So ultimately, you see a player that you're avoiding, then.

Speaker 2 (21:40):
I'm avoiding him at his current price.

Speaker 3 (21:42):
Yes, Jake, I just railed on this a few weeks ago.
The price is My issue is I do think Rice
is the best option here. Hell, on the projections, I
think this is going to be a three man situation,
and then we're talking about Markue's Brown, Jalen Royal as
Jujus Smith Schuster. I jokingly said sky Moore and everybody
came for me in the comments, just saying that, like
they have options. But I do think it's going to

(22:04):
be a three headed monster in the fact that it's
going to be Rice, Worthy and Kelsey. Now, even in
my projections, putting Rice first has them at about one
hundred and thirty one targets. That's pretty bullish for what
I agree with Fitz is saying, like, yeah, we're talking OTAs,
but we're talking OTAs where people overreact to everything. Oh
they look the best shape of their lives, or Christian

(22:24):
Caffrey looks slow. The dude's not even running full speed.
Let's chill out. It's OTAs. All that being said is
even assuming this is assuming that Rice is one hundred
percent for week one, one hundred and thirty one is
not the volume pace he was on, and that's still
with about one hundred for Worthy and about one hundred
and ten or so for Kelsey. You again, why you
can go tweak those numbers because if we're off on

(22:44):
those and maybe Rice is only one hundred and ten targets,
I sail and say Rice still checks in one spot
behind DJ Moore. For me, Worthy is still in the thirties.
So you can see like it's going to take because
the volume given Rice a style in this offense, and
maybe the touchdowns change it for us, But given the
style and what should be the production, it would take
one hundred and forty one hundred and fifty targets to

(23:06):
get to wide receiver one status. And I think that's
the issue Fits has, and that's why I agree with him,
is that he's going close to that. It's like there's
zero risk being baked in that, like even less than
DJ Moore. And that's my issue with it. If you
told me I could get Rice as my low end
wide receiver two and put him as a wide receiver
two on my team, sign me up. But he's not
going even close to that right now for some reason.

Speaker 1 (23:27):
Fits. I forget if you said this, But where is
he ranked for you?

Speaker 2 (23:30):
Oh? Man, I've got him in I want to say
he's like wide receiver twenty five for me. I don't
have my rankings in front of me.

Speaker 3 (23:38):
Sorry.

Speaker 1 (23:39):
Four.

Speaker 2 (23:40):
Yeah, And I know like a lot of smart people
have him in the teens. I'm just not willing to
draft him there.

Speaker 1 (23:46):
He looks so good earlier last year. I get why
people are like remembering.

Speaker 3 (23:49):
This ADP is wide receiver fourteen or fifteen.

Speaker 1 (23:52):
That's right, I'm looking on Fantasy pros right now we
have his ADP as wide receiver fifteen. That that like
almost like draw on the floor. I did not think
is that high. Actually, that's that.

Speaker 3 (24:02):
The three spots ahead of mclauren, force three right, two
or three spots in front of McLaurin. Just to give
you an idea of who else.

Speaker 2 (24:09):
Is doing that, right, I've shot him wide Receiver twenty three.

Speaker 1 (24:12):
Oh so you're also on the same page with Jay, Yeah,
he don't on the same page. Time now for this
week's Chasing Challenges, brought to you by Microsoft. Just like
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(24:33):
and teams are facing their own challenges. In this segment,
we spotlight athletes or teams that are currently undergoing a challenge,
what this means from a fantasy or betting standpoint, and
examine how we think they can overcome them. Whatever challenge
you're facing, Microsoft empowers you with the expertise to say
bring it on. This week, we're discussing the challenges faced
by Rashid Rice as he enters a twenty twenty five
season coming off of season ending injury. Last year. Rice

(24:56):
was an early breakout star in twenty twenty four, with
twenty four catches, two hundred eighty eight receiving yards, then
two touchdowns across the first three games of the season.
He was Kansas City's top target early on, and he
appeared to be poised for a Monster League winning season.
Early in Week four, however, Rice suffered a brutal knee
injury and his season was cut short. Rice is also
dealt with legal questions, so they don't appear to be
impacting his twenty twenty five season. The thirty year receiver

(25:19):
returns to a Chiefs offense with more options than they
had during his short lived breakout, with first round rookie
Xavier Worthy seemingly taking a big step forward late in
the year, Hollywood Brown back and healthier than the addition
of sleeper wide receiver prospect Jalen Royals. Travis Kelcey also
came back for another season, meaning there are a lot
of mouths to feed in this target tree. Rice looked
like a superstar early last year, but injury optimism has

(25:40):
burned managers in the past, and his path to targets
isn't as wide open this year. Rice will look to
overcome these challenges and get back to the league winner
he looked like last September. That's it for this week's
chasing challenges. Remember Microsoft's AI solutions empower you to take
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(26:01):
you can navigate your journey with confidence, finding innovative solutions,
and reaching new possibilities. Visit Microsoft dot com Slash Challengers
to learn more. All right, Jake, next player up for you.

Speaker 3 (26:13):
No. I thought you're gonna give me a little teaser
like how upset you are to see this name here?

Speaker 1 (26:16):
But well I was gonna say, you go. You went
with a terp your last pick, and now a raven
on this pick. I taking it slightly personally, just a
little bit.

Speaker 3 (26:25):
And this one might be my most hated early consensus rank.
I'm the funny thing is ADP is more in line
than early consensus rank. Early consensus hasn't met whide Receiver
twenty three, twenty eight and ADP I actually have them
at thirty one. Who is that at zay Flowers? I
do not get the zay Flowers. And now go back

(26:45):
and look at my rookie sketch. I liked Zay Flowers.
I was a big fan of Say Flowers, and I
was hoping like everybody was going to the Ravens, which
everybody always wants the free agents to go there, the
ribe receivers in the draft, Let's get them to the
Baltimore Ravens. Let's get them in the Baltimore Rape. It's
because somebody is gonna be a top twenty wide receiver
on this team eventually. Right, No, that's just not who

(27:05):
they are. And that's okay, but that's not who they are.
Lamar Jackson just threw forty one hundred yards and forty
one touchdowns, and Zay Flowers was wide receiver thirty five
in points per game, coming off a year where he
was wide receiver thirty three in points per game. Zay
Flowers is Zay Flowers, and that's cool. But Mark Andrews

(27:28):
is a factor, Isaiah Likely as a factor, DeAndre Hopkins
or job Baby, everybody is a factor, just because that's
what Lamar Jackson this offense does. Again, forty one hundred
and forty one touchdowns and he still can't even get
inside the top thirty, and people want to draft him
as a wide receiver two. There's no way on hell
I'm doing that. You give him as my wide receiver three,
as you said, wide receiver thirty one in my ranks
all day long, I just do not get Zay Flowers,

(27:52):
and I just I wish I could. I just explain
it to me. You somebody explained it to me.

Speaker 1 (27:58):
I actually can't. I am also not drafting Zay Flowers
this year. I've said this before on a couple of
other shows. Like he's a better real life receiver than fantasy,
at least in terms of this offense. Like I love
him as a Ravens fan, but as a fantasy manager,
the price is too high. And like I don't think
he will ever be a touchdown guy in this offense.

(28:20):
Like they are always going to run it with Derrick
Henry or whoever the next running back is down the line.
They're always going to throw to their tight ends when
they're in closed. You always had the threat of Lamar scrambling.
Zay is never going to be a primary red zone target.
He's going to have to get his touchdowns on big plays,
which are inherently fluky, and he doesn't get enough of
the target share to have enough opportunities to add up

(28:44):
those big plays. So again, I love him as a player,
but I don't disagree with you. I'm not gonna be
the guy pushing back on this ranking. I think he
belongs in the the you know, early thirties range where
you have him, not inside the twenties.

Speaker 3 (28:58):
Real quick, I was gonna say the you taught run
at the target share. The worst case about it is
the second half of the season as that team changed
and Moore was still throwing a crap ton of touchdowns.
Not one game did he have more than a targets.

Speaker 2 (29:10):
Yeah, so Jake is picking a lot of guys I'm
kind of on the fence on so he's making it
hard on me. But Jake's point is excellent about you know,
we've got this like career best passing season for Lamar
Jackson where he's just hyper efficient and has forty one
hundred yards and forty one touchdowns and Jay Flowers was
still a low end wide receiver three in Fantasy points

(29:31):
per game. So yeah, I'm below consensus on him. I've
got him. I think wide receiver twenty five, so below
ADP but above Jake. Like, I just think drafters have
to realize it's going to be an uneven ride with
Zay Flowers. They're gonna be some big games, but there're
gonna be some some duds too, because the target distribution

(29:53):
can be so uneven in Baltimore, and so yeah, I
guess I'm more inclined to take Zay Flowers in a
best draft that I am in a three draft.

Speaker 1 (30:02):
And his big games weren't even like week winning games.
It was finishing wide receiver eleven instead of his usual
wide receiver in the twenties. I mean, if you look
at his weekly finish last year, and remember the first
half of the season was when Mark Andrews was like
totally non existent. Once once Andrews got kind of like
back really involved in the offseason, the second half of

(30:22):
the season, I mean week ten on for Zay Flowers
wide receiver weekly finishes fifty one, thirty one, thirty three,
thirty nine, thirty eight, twenty three, seventy one, eighty nine.
He he had eight targets twice, but the other target
numbers six six, six, seven, seven five two. I mean
it was just not the usage has not been there.

Speaker 3 (30:43):
So we have one game of one hundred yards in
that stre even if you threw out Week eighteen, it's like,
I think it was.

Speaker 1 (30:49):
One ye on one game we had exactly one hundred
yards against the Steelers. Sixteen. He had that amazing game
against Denver where he finished wide receiver two because he
had two long touchdowns. But even then he six targets
in that game. So I'm just not comfortable saying, like,
even as a boom or bus guy, I don't feel
like the booms are big enough to warrant all the
busts that you're gonna have to deal with. So I

(31:12):
will not be drafting Flowers unless that cost goes way down.
Fits Who's your next player?

Speaker 2 (31:17):
It is Alvin Kamara, who Jay provoked earlier in the show,
And I think the obvious concern with Kamara this year
is the overall state of the Saints' offense. Like it's
probably the worst quarterback situation in the league. With Derek
Carr having retired. It it looks like it's either going
to be forty three year old rookie Tyler Shuck, I kid,
he's only thirty six. No, he's twenty five. He'll be

(31:40):
twenty six in September. It's either or Spencer Rattler who
I guess wasn't a complete train wreck last year, but
certainly wasn't anywhere close to good. So what is the
touchdown upside for Alvin Kamara going to be in an
offense that's probably gonna finish bottom five in scoring. Kamara's

(32:00):
never had a thousand yard rushing season, and he hasn't
been particularly efficient as a runner since twenty twenty, but
he does remain one of the best pass catching running
backs in the league. And you would have to figure
that Kamara's pass catching role is going to be as
prominent as ever this season because the Saints have two
inexperienced quarterbacks who probably won't mind checking down if they

(32:21):
don't see anything they like downfield a few seconds after
the snap, and Taysom Hill probably isn't going to be
back anytime soon. He had a devastating knee injury very
late in the year. I think it was in December
last season. So Kamara had more than eighty catches in
each of his first four seasons, hasn't had more than
seventy five in any of the last four. I think

(32:42):
he could get back over eighty receptions this year. I'm
still very willing to draft him at his mid range
RB two.

Speaker 1 (32:48):
Price, Jake, is this a target or a void for you?

Speaker 3 (32:52):
Target it? At some point we'll probably disagree, I'm assuming,
But like the Alvin Kamara, I didn't want to go
too much into it because I knew Pat was going
to talk about him. But I only have him for
two hundred and three carries, eight hundred and fifty seven yards,
six touchdowns. That might be aggressive on the ground, but
to fits this point, I'm not even that high on
the receptions. But it is seventy four just because it's
gonna be seventy four receptions as a nice target volume,

(33:12):
almost one hundred targets in mine for six hundred yards
and three touchdowns through the air. All that being said,
you added that together, which is only eleven hundred yards
and nine touchdowns. But because again all those receptions, we
are talking half point pbr full pprs. Even better, he's
checking as a back end RB one for me. Now,
am I gonna take him there? Absolutely not. But just
to give you the ideas, like, do you want to

(33:34):
pull those numbers back a little bit? Sure, but you
just have to check off fifty points to get them
down to RB nineteen. They just buy projections. I just
want to give that idea. Like, of course, projections are projections,
but it's very hard to knock Alvin Kamara outside the
top twenty, let alone even outside the top fifteen. So like,
I'm with fits on this because he's somebody that I

(33:56):
got a lot last year. I'm gonna get a lot
this year, just because I think the floor is going
to remain at least for one more year.

Speaker 1 (34:03):
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(34:25):
draft with the mock Draft Simulator at fantasypros dot com
slash mock. All right, guys, let's go to the mid
round traps or treasures as our producer referred to them as.
But these are basically the same thing, just guys that
are so risky. Obviously, there's a little less risk the
deeper into the draft you get, so We're not going
into the late rounds with any of these, but looking
at those mid round guys, guys that we are either

(34:46):
targeting or avoiding fits starting with you.

Speaker 2 (34:48):
Here, Chris Godwin, and my concerns are largely medical related.
Godwin had that gruesome injury against the Ravens last October.
He dislocated his ankle, and I don't know it was
widely reported at the time, but he also fractured his
fibula in that game. Godwin was off to a great start.
He was the wide receiver one and PPR scoring through

(35:10):
the first six weeks. But man, he is not going
to be one hundred percent to start the season. Our guy,
doctor d pak Chona thinks Godwin is probably going to
be more like eighty percent to start the season, ninety
percent by mid season, and then consider the target competition
with Mike Evans and first round pick a mechag Buca.
I think I'm out on Godwin as a fifth or

(35:33):
sixth round pick, even though you know, that seems like
a pretty reasonable price for a guy who was the
wide receiver one in PPR scoring going into the game
where he got hurt. But I'm just I don't know
I'm I'm fading the injury optimism.

Speaker 1 (35:47):
Here very much looked like a league winner early last year.
Did Yeah, Jake, what are you doing with Godwin?

Speaker 3 (35:53):
No, I told you we finally are going to disagree.
I am one on Chris Gudwin. I think Fitz knows this.
I actually did a show just last week when with
Joe and everything, and I brought up Chris Godwin. I
get the doctors, and of course there's time, you know,
if we're drafting right now, at least the risk is
seemingly baked in according to his ADP and ranked I

(36:16):
think that we watch what the doctors say. This is
one where we do want to see the ots. We
do want to see training camps or everything like that.
The thing that I brought up last week, which I
think was interesting And maybe I'm too far down the
rabbit hole and trying to find things at this point,
but I brought up last week and I said, there
is no contingency in his contract for injury. They gave
him that new contract and there's nothing in there that

(36:38):
says if missus time, if MISSUS games isn't a hundred,
like needs to check box to get more of the contract.
It's just straight up contract and that just tells me,
and again maybe I'm too far down the rabbit hole
that they're confident, and maybe maybe they're confident that he's
one hundred percent, but it's not right out of the gate,
and that's part of it, and that I do need

(36:59):
to pull back. But at least right now I have
him inside the top twenty because I do think that
Chris Godwin at this point, if he's even ninety percent,
is the one, and Mike Evans is the two, similar
to what we saw last year because of I was
already that thought process last year, thinking that Baker Mayfield
his style this offense meshes better with Godwin than Evans,

(37:19):
who is still going to be Evans, but you're going
to get that inconsistency and touchdown reliance. But I think
that Godwin is the one if healthy. Of course, Fits
is bringing up a really good point in the fact
that if he's not, this is going to be a
bust of a pick. But I think right now, and
maybe I'm too optimistic, but I think right now his
cost is baked in enough that I'm going to keep
hammering him because I think his upside is too great.

(37:41):
Even if he's ninety percent and then one hundred percent
by the end of September.

Speaker 1 (37:44):
Fitz, what do you see Godwin's ceiling as if he
is healthy, Because I mean, obviously, like Liam Cohen is gone,
but we just saw the ceiling you know last year
was wide receiver one. Do you see that as more
of just a really hot start that he would come
down from a bit, or do you see him as
an elite league win a guy if I guaranteed you health.

Speaker 2 (38:03):
I mean, if everything goes right, I think he could
do seventy five catches for a thousand yards.

Speaker 3 (38:07):
That's funny because I'm for eighty five or one thousand,
So there go.

Speaker 2 (38:10):
Okay, all right, so yeah, I mean I just like
I do, think that's more in the upper reaches of
his range of outcomes, whereas Jake sees that as more
of a median outcome. So yeah, if I'm in a
draft with Jake, I'm not getting Chris Godwin.

Speaker 3 (38:24):
Okay, we finally disagreed, Yeah.

Speaker 1 (38:28):
Yeah, finally, who's your next player here, Jake?

Speaker 3 (38:30):
All right, coming back to the forty nine ers I
teased earlier, and I'm going to do it again. I
think at this point everybody, And my pick isn't even
Ricky Piersoll, But I think everybody from Kittle to Piersoll
to Juwan Jennings what I'm talking about now are worth
their cost. Normally, go back to the Bears in the
saying I've had for years is by the cake, not
the icing, the cake being the quarterback, the icing being
all these extraneous pieces, not being able to figure out

(38:52):
who is going to be the lead option, who's going
to be the top target getter. But I think right
now all of their cost, including Kittle, is worthy of
being taken in drafts. Heck, I don't want to, but
I could see myself coming out of a draft with
Piercel and Jennings and that seven if I did take Kittle,
because a least the TI I whant to get two
out of the three, one of them is gonna hit.
I think the edge right now is Jennings because Jennings

(39:14):
fills the Ayuk role. That's what happened last year. This
is why the Deebo Samuel thing changed. I talked about
this in waivers last season. This was why I had
Jennings in so many spots and he ended up being
a league winner. For a lot of people, but a YUK.
That's one where I don't know how Fitz feels about
a YUK, but that one seems a lot more pessimistic.
That one seems like AYUK might not even be one
hundred percent by mid season. It might actually be a

(39:37):
Yuke December one hundred percent and maybe even next year.
My concern for Jennings up until this point was that
we weren't getting a lot of that clarity. A month ago.
Some of it was like, oh, do you saw people
out there like a UK might be out there by
week one? And at that point I was a little
bit more hesitant on Jennings because Jennings, I think is
the perfect situation, compliment, replacement for Ayuk, where Piarsll fits

(39:59):
the debo role more. He's not perfectly debo, but he
fills that role more. So I'm saying if Ayuk was
out there, I'd be a little bit more on pearcil.
But that doesn't sound like it's going to be the case.
And if that's case, if you told me no Ayuk
on the field, think the pecking order is Jennings and
Piersil and I'm going to take Jennings every single time.
But again, I would even take Piersil to loop him
into this conversation because I think he could have enough

(40:20):
value for where he's going. Jennings is inside my top
almost he's right outside my top thirty right now.

Speaker 1 (40:26):
Fits, How do you see this receiving room shaking out
and specifically Jennings, is he at risk that you're targeting
or avoiding?

Speaker 2 (40:32):
I see it a lot like Jake does, And Jake
was very rude to disagree with me on Chris Godwin,
but I'm going to be very courteous to him, and
I agree with John like I see it the same way.
The guy just don't want is Brandon Ayuk. I do
think there's going to be an injury optimist in every
draft where Ayuk goes way way too early, but I

(40:53):
think he might not be a factor and might even
be a pop candidate. So yeah, Like the target distribut
could be a little messy in San Francisco, but I
think the price on both Peers and Jennings is good,
like I do think Piersol is the guy slightly rather have,
but I would not mind coming out of all of

(41:14):
my drafts with either Jennings or Pearsaw.

Speaker 1 (41:17):
Like I want to just be involved in this group,
and I'm less concerned about who it is and more
just I want to kind of have some exposure.

Speaker 2 (41:26):
Here, especially since their defense is not that good anymore,
like they might have to throw it like the forty
nine ers could be in some shootouts this year.

Speaker 1 (41:35):
So yeah, he's your next player.

Speaker 2 (41:38):
George Pickens. And I don't think I'm going to get
any arguments that he is a very polarizing player. He's
wildly inconsistent game to game, often loses his cool during games.
And now he's in a new offense where he has
to share targets with one of the best receivers in
the NFL, Ceedee Lamb. But playing with Lamb might actually
help Pickens, Like you might get a little less defensive

(42:00):
attention and some matchups against lesser cornerbacks, gets to play
with Dak Prescott, who's had some big passing seasons, And
there's just there's no denying the talent with George Pickens,
Like he's not an a plus route runner, but I
don't know, even though he's not going to be a
high volume guy like pickens ball skills are just extraordinary.

(42:20):
He is one of the few receivers like as good
at the catch point, as like as Bryant was, like
one of the best in the game in that area.
So I've seen Pickens adp in the fifth round, like
that's a little pricey for me. But if he slides
into the sixth, then I think he will in some drafts,
then I'm in.

Speaker 1 (42:42):
I was surprised to see this. He only has three
games in his career with over twenty points in HALFVPR
scoring and they all none of them came last year.
That the highest he got was nineteen point six last
year in that scoring format. So kind of another guy
who generally I think of correct viewed as as a
boom or bust type of player. Polarizing like, you know,

(43:04):
you think of them as a you know, very hit
or miss, but the hits haven't been that big, huge
league winning type of hit in those weeks where it's happened.
George Pickens, Jake, how do you see him?

Speaker 3 (43:17):
We're in agreement. So yeah, coming back fits, some make
things nice for you actually to go back earlier. I
have Pickens in front of Zay Flowers to give you
in comparison. Why but here's the thing. I have them
with almost the exact amount of receptions. The difference is
seventy four receptions seventy one. Slight difference, but same amount
of receptions. Who's getting more yards Pickens. Who's getting more
touchdowns Pickens? And that's why I think they're very much.

(43:39):
To go back to your point, whor is that boom
or bus for Flowers hasn't been as boom as people
would want. Same thing for Pickens hasn't been as boom
as people would want. But if you're getting that kind
of wide receiver three, hopefully in your drafts, you're gonna
get more yards, You're gonna get more boom, you're gonna
get more touchdowns with Pickens. And that's why it's a
very close margin, like they're both in this wide receiver

(44:00):
three group for me. But I would take Pickens every
time it's Flowers, which is crazy to think about because
a lot of times you want the one, not the two.
But we just argued earlier Flowers might not even be
the one for the Ravens anyway.

Speaker 1 (44:12):
Yeah, it's funny looking at the staff rankings on Pickens,
Ericson and Fits have him in the thirties. Fits his
wide sever thirty four and ericson hashim wide receiver thirty nine,
and then Debro has him wide receiver seventeen, so kind
of speaks to very wide rage vacos. That's that's pretty
aggress In fact, I'm gonna look it up while we're
talking with the next player. I'm gonna guess that's the

(44:33):
highest any expert has. George Pickens, right, but I'm surprised.
I'll pull that up and find out while I look
that up, Jake, who's your next player?

Speaker 3 (44:40):
Yeah? This one, this one's frustrating for me because I
have found the appeal of Dave Montgomery in the past seasons.
And I'm not saying it's all Ben Johnson leaving, but
part of it is. Part of it is does this
backfield steer more into Jamior Gibbs. Part of it steers
into do they pass a little bit more around the
goal line? Do they pass a little bit more in general?
I know everybody's talking about this offense isn't going to

(45:02):
change much because of Campbell and everything's going to stay
the same, But I just think we have to factor
a little bit of in. And I do think we
have to factor a little bit that Dan Montgomery is
obviously touchdown Reliant is obviously basing this value a lot
off of double digit rushing touchdowns in the offense that
just clicks and clicks and clicks, especially in the run department,

(45:22):
And I'm fine with that. But I'm fine with Dave
Montgomery as a mid RB three factoring some risk that
like what if it just doesn't continue? Well, I think
there should have been a little bit of risk of
it not continuing if Ben Johnson was even there, let
alone that he's gone and now we're just like, oh,
everything's just gonna keep being gravy and have sunshine and rainbows.

(45:43):
I have davean Montgomery kind of more down in like
the Judkins Charbonnet range, as in, he's the RB two
on a team where I don't think they're gonna all
of a sudden give Gibbs two hundred and eighty to
three hundred carries. But again, Gibbs is one of the
best running backs in the NFL. Just what if? What if?
What if? Is basically my point here, and I think
that just needs to be reflected a little bit as

(46:04):
ranks more than it is right now.

Speaker 1 (46:06):
Deebro By the way, just on George Pickens as in
watched series seventeen. It is the highest in ECR right now,
the next highest h pots for twenty two. Yeah, it's
it's by five spots, but it's I mean, he's fifteen
spots ahead of ECR. But he's five spots ahead of
even the second most aggressive person.

Speaker 3 (46:23):
If you're drafting with Debro, you're not getting.

Speaker 1 (46:25):
George You're not getting George Pickens. Yeah. I think you've
had a good case for David Montgomery too. If it's
what do you think about Montgomery this year as a
target or in a void?

Speaker 2 (46:35):
I'm with Jake. I think he's one of the easiest
fades out there. Yes, you would think they would start
eventually shifting this near fifty to fifty backfield split more
towards Gibbs, who's clearly one of the most talented running
backs in the league. Not only that, I mean there's
no more Ben Johnson, no more Frank rag Now, longtime

(46:55):
stalwarts center for the Lions, and like Monty has scored
twenty five touchdown in twenty eight regular season games over
the past two years. Like that is a hard TD
pace to sustain. The Lions have finished I believe, fifth
and first in offensive point total of the last two years,
Like what if they are no longer a top five
scoring offense this year? So yeah, I'm just not buying

(47:20):
into David Montgomery continuing to produce the way he has
the last two years.

Speaker 1 (47:25):
Where do you have him ranked fits, because I do
think Montgomery's an interesting player to having your team in
kind of one of those like steroid versions of a
very high level handcuff that could still contribute, because if
Gibbs would ever get hurt, we'd all be like super
excited about Montgomery. He's more than a handcuffs. I don't
want to use that labeling of him, but kind of
like a supersized version of that. So somebody I'm interested

(47:45):
in having on my team. It's just the cost is
kind of assuming he's going to continue to be really productive.

Speaker 2 (47:51):
Right now, I've got David Montgomery ORB twenty five, but
I've got him just ahead of Tony Pollard, DeAndre Swift,
and Isaiah Pacheco, And I cannot guarantee you if I'm
on clock that I would in fact take Montgomery of
all four of those guys were on the board.

Speaker 1 (48:05):
Yeah, what do you think about that kind of group there?
Jake Montgomery Pollard, Pacheco, Swift.

Speaker 3 (48:11):
I have Swift and Pacheco both in front of him.
I have them arby twenty six.

Speaker 1 (48:16):
Okay, some mid twenties range there, All right, Fitz, Let's
go to your final player here in the mid round.

Speaker 2 (48:22):
It's Evan Ingram. He's pretty polarizing. He's had problems with
injuries throughout his career. He's had some problems with drops,
as Jake knows from his days with the Giants, but
there's also been some periods of high productivity. I mean,
he's two years removed from a one hundred and fourteen
catch season in Jacksonville. So Ingram only played nine games

(48:44):
last season because he had a hamstring injury, a shoulder injury.
The price is pretty reasonable, but I do think he
has landed in a great spot in Denver, where you know,
he got a two year, twenty three million dollar deal
and Show Peyton has said he plans to make Ingram
the joker in his offense. That's been a key role

(49:05):
in Peyton's offenses over the years, filled by players such
as Jimmy Graham, Reggie Bush, Alvin Kamara. It's this role
that emphasizes run after the catch ability in the passing game,
and that's an area where Ingram has always shined. So
I do think this is a good setup for him.
I'm not quite as high as Debro and Erikson are

(49:27):
on Ingram. I think they've got him at like tight
end four, and I think I'm at tight end seven.
But I do think Ingram is a value in drafts.

Speaker 1 (49:35):
Yeah, they do both have him at tight end four. Yeah.
I mean Ingram is somebody that I very early on
in the kind of drafting process and thinking about twenty
twenty five rankings. You know, like a lot of people,
I was pretty excited about the idea of drafting Ingram,
you know where he was going. But I feel like
the drumbeat is going to just kind of continue to

(49:56):
get louder, and the ranking will continue to get higher,
and I feel like gonna end up being largely priced
out of him. We'll see out ends it panning out
by the time we get to August. Jake, I mean,
like I said, two of our guys have him at
tight end four. Does that feel aggressive to you at four?

Speaker 3 (50:10):
Yeah? Very aggressive. Here's the thing here, This is one
of the ones where I will say, like buy the cake,
not the icing, I'm just buying Bonnicks. Really, what it
comes down to is the only receiver that I feel
confident is actually Courtland Sutton. Again, I think Pat Bryant
could be an issue, mostly because Pat Bryant before the draft,
I was kind of mid, like, yeah, I kind of

(50:32):
like Pat Bryan, but I liked him more when he
went to the Broncos because he's that Marquise Colston, He's
that Michael Thomas. It's that big slot usage and that
that I'm saying like that, I think Pat Brian's immediately
going to take over. I don't even put him in
the same class as those two names. Let's be clear.
I'm just say it's another factor here of like all
these weapons with Sean Payton billing his offense with the Saints,

(50:53):
and if it's if he's right, yes, if he becomes that,
let's go back to the names with the Saints and
look at the tight end options. If that's what he
becomes and he's walking into one hundred and thirty targets,
that's a completely different conversation. I'm way too low on
Evan Ingram, but I just think it's going to be R. J. Harvey, JK.
Dobbins wide receivers tight end like, there's just so much

(51:14):
where I don't know if he can get to one
hundred and ten plus targets, which that's what's involved Evan
Ingram getting to be a top ten tight end. If
he does, fits is one hundred percent right, and I'm
not going to disagree with him. I'm just more on
the wow. I know what Peyton's saying, but Payton's also
said with things that he's going to do at running
backs and never does. I just I'm hesitant to buy

(51:36):
into the target share, but I think at his cost
right now, it's worth jumping in. So I do. While
I disagree with like potential ceiling of tight end four,
I think at his current cost is like that back
what is he like? Tight end nine? Is he right now?
I think if I'm remembered correctly, you can.

Speaker 1 (51:52):
Ye, yeah, tight end nine.

Speaker 3 (51:54):
I'm okay with that, mostly because if I miss on
the big three in my opinion, which are Bowers, Kid
and McBride, I'm gonna look for somebody like Ingram who
has top five. I don't want Dalton Kok, who I
think is top seven or eight at best. Like there
is a path for Ingram to be top five.

Speaker 1 (52:12):
Angram. His ECR is nine by the way ADPs tight
end seven, so a couple spots higher than the rank,
but not quite as high as steep Ron. Erickson Jq's
the last player here.

Speaker 3 (52:25):
Yeah, this is one, and I'll give the heads up
right out of the gate, majorly on and that comes
to somebody that, like I thought the talent was always
potentially the best wide receiver for the Colts. I thought
the fit with Anthony Richardson could be the best, and
you saw it at times, but we might not even
be talking about Anthony Richardson because it might be Daniel Jones,
which Daniel Jones I think honestly could be a plus.

(52:47):
As much as I hate Daniel Jones, I think the
style could be a plus because at this point, Michael
Pittman is Michael Pittman, Like, we just have to accept
it at this point. And that's even before factoring the
injuries which are starting to be concerning from Michael Pittman.
I think Josh downs on this team has the ability
to be the one, as in the most valuable wide receiver.
The one doesn't necessarily mean like always on the perimeter,

(53:09):
always the X always the big play like Josh Downs
is just Josh Downs. But that value that he brings
as the one I think to the Colts as the
one value I think fits with either quarterback, which is
that's why I like it. I'm not trying to worry
about if it is Richardson or is it Daniel Jones,
or is it back and forth and back and forth
and back and forth. I think he fits both of
them different style quarterbacks to a degree when they're throwing,

(53:32):
but his style fits both. The way he gets open
fits both. And I think that if you're looking at
Josh Downs getting one hundred and twenty targets, which I
think is conceivable as the top option in this offense,
you're talking about a wide receiver three who is not
going anywhere close to that right now.

Speaker 2 (53:48):
What is he.

Speaker 3 (53:48):
Forty something or range or what. I just don't think
people are giving Downs.

Speaker 1 (53:53):
Enough of respect. Yeah, Downs, he's ranked his wide receiver
forty five and his ADP's wide receiver forty four.

Speaker 3 (54:01):
Yeah, he should be in the mid thirties. He should be.
I would take Josh Downs as much as I think
that I'm in on McMillan and Hunter. I think I
would take him in the same range as both of
those fits.

Speaker 1 (54:12):
Are you in or out on downs?

Speaker 2 (54:14):
I guess Jake and I always agree in playne together
if we're not talking about slot receivers and then we
fight like cats and dogs. Yeah, I'm not in on
Josh downs at all. Like the quarterback situation is the
sort of obvious reason to be concerned about downs, But
even that aside, this dude has scored seven touchdowns in

(54:39):
thirty one career games, Like he is not going to
be a prolific scorer. I don't think that the Colts
are going to have even thirty touchdown passes no matter
how they divide the quarterback starts this year. And I think,
I don't know, Jake, I'm worried, like are we possibly
underplaying how many of those short area targets that Josh

(55:00):
Downs thrives on are gonna get stolen by Tyler Warren
this year? And like I know, obviously different types of players.
Downs is a super shift the elusive guy, and Tyler
Warren is a guy who wants to run people over,
but they are still catching passes in the same short
areas of the field. And I just think Tyler Warren

(55:20):
is going to cut into that Josh Downs target shair like,
I don't think he's getting anywhere close to one hundred
and thirty targets quite honestly.

Speaker 3 (55:27):
Yeah, I think that's the difference is that I love
Tyler Warren, but I'm not saying you're doing this. I
just think a lot of people are seeing what Brck
Bouers just did and kind of like vaulting all of
these rookie tight ends with a lot of talent, And
I don't know that Tyler Warren's even out there eighty
percent of the time immediately I do. You're talking twenty
twenty six Tyler Warren Top five conversation on talent and

(55:48):
also depending on the quarterback situation. But again I go
back to Daniel Jones and what I like about Josh
Downs to go back to it is that Anthony Richardson
obviously tries to go downfield, tries to go downfield, tries
to go downfield, and that benefited Alec Pearce, but it
also benefits Josh Downs. I think, who, yes, you're right
about the slot, but he has the ability to get
into that space but also get into that space and

(56:09):
keep it downfield, which I bring in comparisons to me,
is Jarvis Landry. And yes, Jarvis Landry's value to be
top twenty was one hundred and forty plus targets. But again,
I'm not talking about in top twenty. I'm talking about
a wide receiver three, which you talk about one hundred
and twenty maybe one hundred and thirty targets. Jarvis Landry
is getting that where I think one year Jarvis Landry
was a touchdown guy. But your point is valid, and

(56:31):
I don't expect him to get more than four or
five touchdowns. But I'm talking about that volume, reliant wide
receiver three and half a full point PPR which it
is is Daniel Jones. He can't throw the deep ball.
We've already seen a Colts and they're like the beat
reporters are being like, maybe you know, got a huge
play downfield. Overthrew them, under throw them, threw them to
the side, and it's like, oh, the Giants already knew this.

(56:52):
This is why he's not their quarterback anymore. But Daniel Jones,
for all his flaws, can hammer the middle of the field.
And maybe your point is valid, and maybe Tyler Warren
is a bigger factor than Josh downs and I'm giving them.
I just don't think it is this year.

Speaker 1 (57:07):
It almost sounds like you're, you know, in this case,
more interested in the icing than the cake as supposed to.

Speaker 2 (57:13):
Oh yeah, but I.

Speaker 3 (57:14):
Will take Anthony Richardson, who's going to go around? Why
were quarterback twenties? Then you know, if she starts fifteen games,
then boom. I'll take it anyway, because you can suck
as a bass and run all day and be valuable.

Speaker 2 (57:25):
I mean, who's not licking the beaters when you know
someone makes icing? My wife, just don't leave it on.

Speaker 1 (57:33):
We started with food talk well and with I'm not
actually a big cake guy in general. I don't. I
don't really like cake.

Speaker 3 (57:39):
I think that's worse than my crab and lobster take.

Speaker 1 (57:42):
Well, it's just it's not worth to me, like how
unhealthy it is. It's just like it's fine, like I don't.
I just don't have it. Like like if I'm getting desserted,
it's ice cream all day, every day, like over cake
ice cream. Maybe that's an ice cake, but I just
I just strongly prefer ice cream or like a good
chocolate chip cookie or something like that. If if I'm

(58:02):
ranking dessert's cake is not pie. Cake is pie For me,
I don't really like pie hold that much, all.

Speaker 3 (58:09):
Right, I'm not I hate pie.

Speaker 2 (58:12):
Now that everyone is unsubscribed, uh.

Speaker 1 (58:16):
Oh, go ahead and wrap up there. Let us know
in the comments what's the worst take thinking lobster and
crab is overrated or not liking cake or pie? Well,
go ahead and wrap up. Like I said for Jake
and Fits, I'm Ryan warmly thanks everybody for tuning in.
We'll see again next time. Thanks for listening to the
Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football podcast. If you love the show,
the best freeway to support us is by leaving a

(58:38):
positive review on Apple podcasts at Fantasypros dot com, slash review,
or on Spotify. Follow us on x, Instagram, and TikTok
at Fantasy Pros, and subscribe to our YouTube channel at
YouTube dot com slash Fantasy Pros

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Does George Kittle Keep Cooking? | 12 Risky Players to Target or Avoid in Drafts (Ep. 1593)

Episode Transcript

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.css-14f5ked{margin:0;word-break:break-word;display:-webkit-box;-webkit-box-orient:vertical;box-orient:vertical;-webkit-line-clamp:2;overflow:hidden;}Does George Kittle Keep Cooking? | 12 Risky Players to Target or Avoid in Drafts (Ep. 1593)