Erickson's FAVORITE Fantasy Football Picks in Every Round: Why Malik Nabers is Stefon Diggs 2.0! (Ep. 1301)

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Hello, everybody, Welcome into the Fantasy Pros Football podcast. I'm
Ryan Warmley, joined today by Andrew Erickson and Derek Brown,
who just informed me that he thinks Seinfeld is overrated
and he's never really watched it.

Speaker 2 (00:11):
Incredibly overrated, one of the most overrated TV shows ever ever.

Speaker 3 (00:16):
Extremely false.

Speaker 1 (00:16):
I'm trying to trusting the comments will have my back
on this. You know, modern day Jerry Seinfeld comments.

Speaker 2 (00:21):
Society incredible because he's never probably even watched it.

Speaker 4 (00:24):
That was before I watched Seinfeld plenty of times. I
think it's fine.

Speaker 1 (00:28):
For the record, the president of Fantasy Pros is a
huge Seinfeld fan, so I would just I would just
tread lightly with how you speak about.

Speaker 2 (00:35):
Okay, I'm sorry, I'm sorry. I'm so sorry. Andrew, Hello,
my job. I just gotta say, I'm George.

Speaker 4 (00:42):
Stanza, guy.

Speaker 1 (00:43):
I have I'm not I'm not gonna try and like
get the chair out of the way, but I have
like many Seinfeld books behind me.

Speaker 3 (00:47):
I am a actual.

Speaker 2 (00:49):
Fan of the best character that entire shows.

Speaker 3 (00:52):
Newman is great, Wayne Night's awesome.

Speaker 4 (00:54):
I like how when anyone talks about Jurassic Park, they
always preferred to him as.

Speaker 2 (00:57):
Newman different names like never Contact, that's all Timer actually hers.

Speaker 4 (01:07):
I know it's the one with like the web around
the neck area. I'm not up to today.

Speaker 2 (01:12):
O Lord, I feel like I need to give you
a tutorial on dinosaurs now.

Speaker 1 (01:16):
Jason Park also, you know great great flicks. So Seinfeld
and drafts Park both elite. Maybe that says something about
Wayne Knight. All right, let's go into the show. Here
we're talking about today Ericsson's favorite picks, his top targets
in every round. We're gonna go through sixteen rounds of
the draft. So this is for redraft. Obviously, we did
a couple versions of these on the Dynasty Show with

(01:37):
Fitzen Bogman. We're now doing it on redraft. I assume
Debra will have his chance in the future. Today, all
he has to worry about is rebutting ericson or agreeing
with him where he does, and reacting to his picks
alongside me. So Erickson has prepared his names, like I said,
for the first sixteen rounds of your draft. Kind of
a standard draft size. Just a quick note for everybody.
All of our twenty twenty four consensus rankings and tiers

(01:59):
can be found at fantasypros dot Com slash rankings. All right,
let's start right at the very top ericson who is
your favorite pick in round one? Oh, by the way,
let me just say this is kind of standard, you know,
half PPR. We're not talking super flex, just kind of
what your typical draft would look like.

Speaker 4 (02:14):
Yeah, so round one for me could have gone Jamar Chase,
but I wanted to talk about another player that you
can get more accessibly in round one because he goes
in the second half, and that's Breeze Hall, running back
for the New York Jets. He is my RB one
ranked this season, and I think it's because of how
good he was last year. If you look at just
PPR total points scored, only Christian McCaffrey scored more points

(02:37):
than Breshall did last year. And that was Bresall playing
an absolute garbage offense that was the New York Jets
last year. He was the second so second in terms
of total points scored. He had the lowest rushing success
rate or excuse me, second to last and rushing success
rate last year, and he still only trailed Christian McCaffrey
in terms of total points per total points scored at

(02:58):
the running back position. In terms of the Archos scrimmage,
he was second. He was first in receptions at seventy six.
He had ninety five targets. He almost had as many
targets as a brand I Yuke did. I just couldn't
understand looking at the back of these numbers. And it's
hard to because you remember just how bad the Jets
were on offense last year, and that's what nuked Hall's
true upside because they never scored touchdowns. He couldn't do it.

(03:20):
But he's an elite pass catcher and he's shown that.
And besides Garrett Wilson on this team, who are we
really confidence is going to catch a ton of balls?
Tyler Conklin, Mike Williams, lak Kai Corley. I'm not confident
really any of these guys. I think it's gonna be
the Breese Hall and Garrett Wilson show. And if this
offense just goes to average in terms of scoring touchdowns, well,
Brestall's gonna be flirting with fifteen sixteen total touchdowns through

(03:41):
the air and on the ground. So that's why he's
my RB one and I think that next year he's
gonna be the one on one twenty twenty five drafts.

Speaker 1 (03:48):
Dee bro you and Erickson back in the day when
Breslaw was entering the NFL had many a debate about Bresaw.

Speaker 3 (03:55):
You know in those rookie drafts.

Speaker 1 (03:57):
Have you come around Do you agree with Erickson here
as him as one of the best picks in round one?

Speaker 2 (04:02):
Yeah, I have no problem with Breis Hall in round one,
and he's not my RB one, But I mean the
case is easy. I mean I think, like you're looking
at those top tier guys CMC Breess and Bjeon Robinson,
I think deserve and should be in a tier of
their own based off the workload of the upside to
be the RB one overall. So I have no issue
with that, and like looking at them as prospects. Was

(04:23):
I higher on Kenneth Walker than Breese, Absolutely, you know.
And the thing with Kenneth Walker, we just have seen
he's gotten dinged up with injuries over the last few
years and Seattle's offense has been up and down. So
while I still love Kenneth Walker, I have no issues
of Breece here in the first round.

Speaker 1 (04:37):
This is a quick aside, but because we mentioned Breis Hall,
I really want to ask about Breece versus Bejon. It's
become something of a major debate in terms of who
is the RB two.

Speaker 3 (04:47):
Now.

Speaker 1 (04:47):
I know for Ericson, we're talking about RB one and
two between Breese and Bjon, he's a little lower on CMC.
In most drafts, RB two and RB three will be
in some order Bres and Bijon. So I want to
get your guys' opinion on kind of where you come
down on that debate, because I think it's like a
really key, you know, argument to get right in terms
of fantasy drafts this year. And to be fair, I

(05:07):
think there's a world where both are the correct answer
and they're just both awesome. Ericson, We've talked about this
a bit on some of the TikTok lives, but I'm
curious for the podcast listeners, where do you come down
on Brice versus Vision. Obviously you like Priest better, but
how why do you see that gap?

Speaker 4 (05:21):
I think it's really tight, and I've been tempted every
time we get a report that talks about the Jon
Robinson being in the Christian McCaffrey role. I try. I
don't want to ignore that because who scores the most
Fantasy points who outscore Brees saw I was christmc cacaffrey
by over one hundred Fantasy points in PPR. So is
there a scenario would I be surprised if Jon outscores
Brice Hall. No, I wouldn't be stocked at all. But

(05:43):
I think that both guys are gonna outscore Christ McCaffrey.
So that's kind of the where the take that I'm
putting here, And this is where I'm pushing my chips
in on these super young running backs in their UBU
prime on offenses that I expect to be above average
this year because of all the changes they have made
during the offseason. So for me, ultimately comes down to
Breese has already been in the system. It's not new.

(06:04):
It's an offense that they're already He's already been in
and we've already seen him be successful and Rogers loves
to We've seen Rogers fuel these pass catching running backs
before Aaron Jones, Like how many years was Aaron Jones
the number two target on the team behind Devanta Adams.
That's gonna be Breese Hall in this offense with Garret
Wilson and that DeVante Adams role So for me, it's
so bries Saw. I think it is razor close, and
I'm not going to papoo anyone that thinks it should

(06:26):
be Bjeon over Bresaw. But in terms of those two
guys versus McCaffrey, that's where I stand.

Speaker 1 (06:30):
Yeah, I pick a different side seemingly every day because
I'm really torn on it, Like more often than not,
I kind of lean Bejon, But every time I hear
Ericson talk about Bresaw, I'm like, you know, those are
some pretty compelling points. Deeper, what do you think about
haull Of versus Bijeon.

Speaker 2 (06:45):
I have Bjon over Breese, And again I think we're
just splitting hairs. But if we are going to go
with the hair splitting route, I look at both of
the offensive environments. I like the Atlanta Falcons a little
bit more. But the funny thing I think about both
of these running backs and being like they're at the
tippy top of running rankings is both of these are

(07:05):
running backs are in offenses with quarterbacks coming off Achilles tears.
So really it's like, how do you feel about either quarterback?
Feel a little bit better about Kirk Cousins coming back
from that, although Aaron Rodgers had a longer recovery time
just with the age, I like the offensive line for
the Falcons a little bit more and some of the
weapons because, as Ericson alluded to, it's like it's Garrett

(07:26):
Wilson and it's Breeze Hall, and it's a bunch of
the like. I look at Atlanta's depth chart and I
feel a little bit better about it now. Again, could
that lean to more of the volume running through Breese Hall. Possibly,
But even if we want to split hairs too, I
think we get more play volume with the Atlanta Falcons
versus Nathaniel Hackett and Aaron Rodgers. We know that tag

(07:47):
team is going to run a really slow molasses offense.
So again, if we're splitting hairs, I do side with Bijon,
but both of them are smash picks.

Speaker 4 (07:56):
I will say too, as a final point, if I'm
trying to really capitalize on if I go with bree
and I really want to smoke the competition, then Tyler
Algier is going to be at the top of my list.
You know what if he does have a big role
in this offense. But if Bijean gets hurt, well, then
I have the Bijon upside role with Tyler Algier on
my roster versus you want Bijon and Braylan Allen. Who

(08:16):
Braylan Allen is a total projection. We don't know. We
think that he's the RB two, but they draft another
running back this year and they had easy who they
drafted last year. So and that's not nearly as much
as a confident bet where Algier. I mean, he's a
proven producer. He would be an RB one on most
other teams. So if you really are going to bet
on Bree and kind of bet against Bijeon, well you
gotta circle Tyler year on your draft board.

Speaker 1 (08:36):
Yeah.

Speaker 2 (08:36):
I like the head.

Speaker 1 (08:37):
I said this on yesterday's show, But I think I'm
just gonna do a lot of salary cap drafts and
just come away with both of them and spend up.

Speaker 3 (08:44):
Because I just love them both.

Speaker 4 (08:46):
Just be happy, man.

Speaker 3 (08:47):
Yea, all right, let's go to a round two who
you got to hear ericson.

Speaker 4 (08:51):
I thought so much about round two and who I
wanted to go with here, and he's a player that
goes at the end of round two. So I think
wherever you're picking, you can end up landing him, and
it's Jalen Waddle for me, a wide receiver for the
mind Dolphins. I think for me, he strikes the perfect
balance of a floor and ceiling play that I want
to invest when I'm looking at this premium draft capital.
In Round two last year, wide receiver twenty three points
per game. That was the same as Chris l Love

(09:12):
and Devonte Smith. But it's really viewed as a down
season for him. But when you look at the last
two seasons overall in this offense, alongside Tyry Kill, Wattle
is tenth in receiving yards and tenth in receiving yards
per game over the last two seasons. I know we
have all these advanced metrics in terms of yards per
route run, tariot rap per route run. You know, the
number one predictor in terms of Fantasy points score besides

(09:32):
Fantasy points is receiving yards. You know, actual production go
figure actually predict predicts future production. Three consecutive one thousand
yard seasons for Jalen Wattle. He's finished as a top
thirteen Fantasy wide receiver twice on his resume, and last
year I'm attributing it to the injuries and just the
lack of touchdowns. He only scored four touchdowns. The backfield's
combined for over thirty touchdowns. That's not going to be

(09:55):
as wide this year. So for me, I think Jalen
Waddle has a ton of upside in offense. Maybe Terry
Hill takes a step back, maybe Wadle takes on a
bigger share, scores more touchdowns in offense that I'm confident
is going to be inside the top ten turns of
total touchdowns. So with a lot of guys in this range,
are a lot of its upside projections, and I'm not
sure what the floor is I think Waddle. To me,

(10:16):
he feels like the safest pick because I like his
floor that he offers. But I also think he has
a really high ceiling similar to some of these other
players in this range, especially at the wide receiver position.

Speaker 1 (10:25):
Now, Dbro, you are the lowest of the Fantasy pros
experts on Jalen Watt at least amongst the four of
you know you two fits in Joe, So you are
I'm guessing not going to agree with this pick.

Speaker 2 (10:36):
No, I like this pick. I mean, how Lolo am
Miga versus them? I've got him at wide receiver sixteen
like I don't feel like i'm bearing waddle.

Speaker 3 (10:42):
I'm showing here that you've got him thirty one.

Speaker 1 (10:45):
Maybe this hasn't been updated thirty first overall, which would
not be in the second round obviously. Maybe I'm looking
at an out of date ranking.

Speaker 2 (10:52):
No, I mean I've got him around there. I think, like,
let me see work. Okay, yeah, I've got him at twenty.

Speaker 3 (10:58):
I've see it's update here at twenty. Okay, so still
back in the second All right, So I had the
thinkings wrong.

Speaker 2 (11:03):
But yeah, that okay, Yeah, No, I like the pick
of Wattle. And the other thing that I think is
so telling of what Ericson brought up. I mean, yes,
receiving yards per game is a fantastic predictor of future production,
because again we want to talk about volume, and look,
if you're not getting volume, if you're not producing and
you're not good, you're not going to rack up receiving yards.
But you look at where Jim and Wattle finished last year,

(11:24):
and Ericson hit the thousand yard mark, he was fourteenth
in receiving yards per game. It just all the high
leverage looks. And the other thing about Jim and Wattle too,
is that in the fourteen games he played, he only
had eleven of them where he played over sixties percent
of the snaps, and a lot of that goes back
just to health. So if we get a fully healthy
Jylen Waddle this season, it's not crazy to say that

(11:47):
maybe him and Hill both finishes wide receiver ones, especially
considering how consolidated that offense is.

Speaker 1 (11:54):
I was accidentally looking at the standard rankings, not half PPR,
So that's that's why they were off pologized for that.
All right, let's go hit around number three. Who do
you have here, Erickson?

Speaker 4 (12:04):
Round three? It's Michael Pittman Junior for me wide or
two for the Indianapolis Colts. I think that Pittman has
shown to be an alpha wide receiver at the NFL level,
especially in this offense last year, flirting with a thirty
percent target chair that was top five among all wide receivers.
And I just want pieces of this Colts offense. Think
that this offense is slated to take a major step forward.

(12:24):
Carder Minshew was not great last year from an efficiency standpoint,
and Shane Steichen worked his magic to get this offense
cooking in most scenarios, and Michael Pittman was a popular
fade among a lot of analysts, including myself, because we
were afraid of the run heaviness, but the offense was
still good and they ended up throwing a little bit
more than we expected. So Michael Pittman to me, I'm
not sure what else he has to really show except

(12:46):
he just needs to get the touchdowns right. Same kind
of conversation with jay Len Wada. Why is he being
suppressed in his price because he didn't score the touchdowns.
Same thing with Michael Pittman. He has yet to have
that season where he's been scoring the touchdowns, but he's
seeing red zone targets. Him and Garrett Wilson again both
inside the top ten in terms of red zone targets,
but the touchdowns did not match the type of red
zone usage he was seen Over the last three seasons.

(13:07):
Pittman top twenty receiving arts, top twenty receiving arts per game,
seventh in catches, seventh in targets. He has fourteen touchdowns
over the last two seasons. That's what's killing him. But
he's average one hundred and four catches over the last
two years. So what I'm looking for again, I like
the proven production. But I want to say, Okay, well,
can this guy take another step forward? I think with
Anthony Richardson, yeah, I think that we can see Michael

(13:28):
Pittman taking another step forward. And at worst, oh, I
caught another hundred balls, went over another thousand yards, caught
six touchdowns, like that's more than fine of a pick
in round three. But I think there's some untapped potential
with him if we really take this offense take off
with Richardson fully healthy.

Speaker 1 (13:42):
I'm going to learn my lesson here and just ask you, debro,
where do you have Michael Pittman.

Speaker 2 (13:47):
I've I've got Michael Pittman right now as my wide
receiver thirteen. I love him right now. I really wanted
to debunk a few narratives to pile on top of
Rickson's love of Pittman. I keep hearing when people discuss
Michael Pittman and they talk about the Colts offense, they're
gonna say this and correct me if I'm wrong. Boys,

(14:08):
everybody talks about, oh, the kids, the Colts were so
pass heavy with Gardner minshew, do we see that with
Anthony Richardson, I'm sorry, what the heck are we talking about?
They were not pass heavy with Gardner Minshew. They ran
at an extremely fast pace. They were second in neutral
pace with him as a starter, but they were nineteenth
and neutral passing rate. So what the heck are we

(14:30):
talking about? How can Michael Pittman not get better quarterback
play and not get more targets in twenty twenty four?
And to add to Erickson's point, Minshew was by every
metric you can pull up, terrible. He was not good.
And so this also leans over to why I'm not
very high on Devonte Adams this year. Amongst forty five
qualifying quarterbacks, Minshew is forty second and highly accurate throw

(14:53):
rate and thirty seventh and catchable target rate. So yes,
better quarterback play is going to be an Indie And
yes I think they do throw the ball more this
year because Anthony Richardson is hands down better than Gardner Minshew.

Speaker 1 (15:08):
Pittman is interesting in terms of our staff rankings, which
I definitely looking at the correct ones now because you
know some people have them, you know, as high as
in the teams fits as him down at thirty seven overall,
so you know, a pretty wide gap there for where
we as a staff see Pittman falling here in twenty
twenty four. Let's go to a round four and Ericsonana
would tell you this is one of my favorite picks
on your whole list.

Speaker 4 (15:29):
Yeah. I was debating between this and another player that
I've talked about before, but ultimately I went with the
rookie here because I haven't had a chance to talk
a lot about the rookies for this season, in particular,
not through a dynasty context. But it's Bleak Neighbors for me,
wide receiver for the New York Giants, the top six
pick in this year's draft, and I think that he
is just teed up to see so much volume in

(15:50):
this offense. When I was doing my pre draft analysis
on the Leak Neighbors, he reminded me a lot of
Stefan Diggs. And who's his coach. It's Brian Abele, right,
Brian Able, who has a healthy Daniel Jones. And in
twenty twenty two, when Daniel Jones was healthy, who ranked
number one in the NFL and ad just a completion
percentage Daniel Jones. So they're going to define ways to

(16:11):
get Malik Neighbors of the ball, and you're just going
to see this guy work because he's the yards after
the catch monster. So that's one of the biggest things
I like that works in neighbors favor that I think
that he, unlike Marvin Harrison Junior, I think that he's
going to be the focal point of this offense from
day one. He's going to be the offense where Marvin Harrison.
The Cardinals have other pieces that they can use. They

(16:31):
want to run the football with James Connor. Did the
Giants want to run the football with Devin Singletary.

Speaker 3 (16:35):
No.

Speaker 4 (16:36):
I think that he's their running back, like that's who
they have in the building, but they were We've seen
this offense before with Saquon where Saquon was getting all
the touches, getting all the usage. I think that even
though it's a different position, Neighbors is going to be
the featured piece of this offense. And we just look
historically of players drafted with his type of draft capital,
So one of these is coming from the athletic We

(16:56):
look at the top ten receivers. Take inside the top
ten past three seasons, they've averaged eighty catches, a little
bit over one thousand yards, and six point four touchdowns.
So that's wide receiver two range in terms of half PPR,
and you look at the last ten years, receivers that
have been drafted in the top six played twelve or
more games. It's for my boy Joe on Twitter. Those
wide receivers average fourteen point four Fantasy points per game

(17:19):
and that ranked top ten position in twenty twenty twenty three.
So I think that we're kind of drafting Neighbors close
to his floor a little bit here in round four
as a back end wide receiver. Two. I have him
inside my top twenty because I think that he has
a ton of upside, and if it weren't for Marvin Harrison,
I think that he'd probably be drafted higher. So when
you're looking at because I don't love the price of

(17:42):
Marvin Harrison, I get it. I understand why he's going
where he's going, But give me Neighbors in round four
with I think similar upside. Is Colin Murray that much
better than Daniel Jones's that passer as a passer, specifically
that you can't see Neighbors potentially flirting with similar numbers
to Marvin Harrison, who has to hit essentially where you're

(18:02):
drafting in worst neighbors, you're working with a little bit
more risk here because you're getting him a little bit later,
so he doesn't necessarily need to do as much. But
I think his ceiling is just as high.

Speaker 1 (18:12):
For the record, I do like Harrison in the second round,
so I don't want to like knock that value, but
I just like Neighbors in the fourth better to all
the points you laid out, like just as a lead
of a prospect, just as obvious, if not a more
obvious path to the high target share. I do think
Kyler is better than Jones, but like you're right, is
that gap worth the second rounder versus the fourth rounder?

Speaker 3 (18:34):
I'm all over.

Speaker 1 (18:35):
If I get Neighbors in the fourth round, I will
do it in every single league this year. I think
it's a great pick. And obviously Debro is somebody who
spent a lot of time with these rookies and who
was very high in Neighbors.

Speaker 3 (18:45):
I'm assuming you agree here.

Speaker 2 (18:47):
Yeah, I adamantly agree. I mean I have Milik Neighbors
as my wide receiver seventeen right now, ECR has him
lagging at wide receiver twenty five. The giant stink is real,
and I just look who's stopping Milite Neighbors from just
gobbling up targets like he can get one hundred and
thirty one hundred and forty targets, Like projecting him outside

(19:07):
of anything outside of like a twenty five percent target chair,
I think you're doing projections wrong. So looking at Neighbors,
I think he's going to absolutely just smash with the volume.
And everybody's just assuming this Giants offense is going to
be god awful. It's going to be terrible. But what
we see variants every single year, Like I feel like
this is one of the teams where I'm not telling

(19:29):
you I'm over the moon for the Giants offense or
Daniel Jones, but we saw everything that could have possibly
gone wrong last year went wrong. The offensive line was decimated,
Daniel Jones got hurt, Darren Waller was banged up, all
of those things, Like some of that is going to
regress the offensive line. I'm not saying they're going to
be top twelve, but if they're middle of the road,

(19:49):
if they're just average, and Daniel Jones is just average,
he doesn't have to be amazing, just be averaged, don't
be terrible. Malite Neighbors is going to get a ton
of targets, and I'm investing in all these rookie guys,
like I'm fine with Marvin Harrison where he goes, but
Malie Neighbors, we want to talk about who's the better value.
It's easily in milite.

Speaker 1 (20:09):
Neighbors Neighbors currently, you know a fourth round pick, would
you take him the third round? Erickson like back end
of the third.

Speaker 4 (20:16):
I think that that's fair too. I mean again, I
like Pittman more so I wouldn't take him over Michael Piman,
for example, but I think that he has look in
the beginning of round one. I think actually Marvin Harrison
Junior starts this tier. I think it's a very long
tier of wide receivers, kind of starting with Marvin Harrison
because he's the mystery box. Everybody loves the mystery Box.
That's why he's at the top, which I get because
I see the upside case. But I think Malik Neighbors

(20:39):
is just at the end of that tier, right. He
comes with a riskier floor because you don't know what
Daniel Jones again, he's worse, but the ceiling is so
clearly there for Malik Neighbors to be the number one
target in his offense. And if a guy with his
explosive sales cut is getting number one target volume, let's
look look look ahead to Week one, right, the Giants

(21:00):
are playing the Minnesota Vikings defense that we're not really
afraid of. The Cardinals are playing the Buffalo Bills. Who
gets more targets in Week one? Marvin Harrison or Milk Neighbors.
It's probably, I mean, it's it's close. It's like a
fifty to fifty proposition. But when you look at where
they're being drafted, you would think that's blasphemy thinking that.

(21:21):
I just think if we if we see Week one
play out and we had to re rank the team, agay,
we do rest of season rankings, I can guarantee Marvin
Harrison Junior and Milike Neighbors are gonna be ranked way
closer than they are in draft season. And if it
only takes one week for that to happen, well, I
rest my case.

Speaker 2 (21:37):
To your question, worm, I have Neighbors as my twenty
seventh overall player, so I think you should be drafted
in the third.

Speaker 3 (21:44):
Round, closer to a second round than a fourth rounder.

Speaker 2 (21:46):
Yep, I mean with you, we just made the case. Man,
it's volume it's talent. I'm not betting against it.

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Speaker 1 (23:21):
All right, Eric, so let's move towards closer to the
middle rounds here. Who is your favorite pick in round five?

Speaker 4 (23:27):
Yeah? I know you're gonna like this pick, but I
do want to just correct myself on one of the
Molik neighbors. It was so my guy on Twitter, Joe,
It's it's at no expert f F. That's his Twitter handle,
and he had a great stat about the receivers draft
of the top six and how productive they are. But
for round five, I know you're gonna love this worm.
It's Mark Andrews, and I'm going to keep this pretty
short and sweet. I stole this from Patas Morris because

(23:49):
he's a great ranker and a great writer and a
great analyst. Looking at Mark Andrews, hearly finishes in Fantasy
points per game half PPR since his second year breakout
twenty nineteen, tight end four, tight end four, tod end one,
tight end three, tight end four, his ADP tight end four.
So to me, it looks like Andrews is being drafted
at his floor when among all the tight ends we've

(24:10):
seen in going in his range, the only one that's
shown the ceiling of a Travis Kelcey esque season has
been Mark Andrews. He has already shown that he can
be the tight end one, and before his injury he
was tight end three overall, averaging twelve point two points
per game, which would have ranked first among all tight
ends last season. So Mark Andrews in round five, to me,

(24:31):
he's my tight end one. So that's why I draft him.
Every single time he's in round five, I would easily
take him round four. I mean, he's my tight end one.
So whenever i start to see tight ends going off
the board, I'm ready to pounce on Mark Andrews.

Speaker 1 (24:41):
Deebro, Obviously you're not going to go so far as
to say Andrews is tight end one. I do think
he's very clearly in that tier one, and I'm fully
clearly on board with Ericson making this pick here. How
are you kind of shaking out the top of the
tight end board, Debro?

Speaker 2 (24:55):
For me, it depends on how the drafts flow, and
I just want to get one of those tip op
six top seven tight ends, the guys that I think
are in that elite tier. So I love the fact
that Ericson brought up Andrews here because I think it's
one of the things that I'm trying to do in
every draft, Like I'm not waiting on tight end and
am I always paying up for Samuel Porta where he

(25:16):
goes in drafts? So these other guys know. But I
think the point for me is you need to get
one of these guys that either you believe is a
tight end that is elite or can step into elite production.
And I just don't want to wait on tight ends
this year, Like, yes, we can talk about Okay, there
are more possible elite tight end options than ever before. Okay,

(25:36):
well fine, just walk away with one of them out
of your draft. And Mark Andrews is a fantastic choice.

Speaker 1 (25:41):
I think there's a scenario where he sets a career
high in touchdowns this year because teams are so focused
on Derrick Henry and Lamar the duo of them at
the goal line, and like, can't you just imagine the
tight end leak from Mark Andrews on a play action
pass to the corner, like wide open, over and over again,
And like, I think it's relevant that they didn't really
at a receiver like they drafted tes Walker. They're banking

(26:03):
a lot on Rashaw Bateman and Zay Flowers and if
one of those two falters even a tiny bit, like
there's still a ton of targets available in this offense,
I think sneakily.

Speaker 3 (26:12):
So I'm I'm all over Andrews.

Speaker 1 (26:14):
I'm also all over Trey McBride and San Laporter, Like
I really, I'm totally with you, de Bro, Like I
just want one of these top half dozen or so
guys because I'm really excited about a lot of them.
But I think Andrews in round five is like an
absolute smash, So I love this pick for sure.

Speaker 3 (26:28):
Let's go to round six.

Speaker 4 (26:29):
Ericson Round six. For me, it's Chris Godwin, wide receiver
for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. I'm just betting on Chris
Godwin going back to the slot. That's where he's been
his most productive traditionally in the NFL. He plays lowest
slot snaps rate last year at thirty seven percent. That
was his lowest since twenty eighteen. And when he's been
a primary slot receiver, he's never finished worse than wide

(26:50):
receiver twenty overall in points per game through four seasons
with a sixty five percent snap rate or higher. The
guy's still super talented. It has just been again, I have
a recurring theme here, lack of touchdowns. Right, the yardage
is there, the catches are there, the targets are there.
He is clearly the one A one B to Mike Evans.
The funny stat with Chris Godwin. He had the same
amount of red zone targets as Mike Evans did last year,

(27:11):
but you would never guess that based on how many
touchdowns Mike Evans scored versus Chris Godwin. So for me,
I think that in this offense, Liam Cohen coming in
to feature him in the Cooper Cuts slot role, I
think Chris Godwin is going to bounce back and remind
us that, hey, this guy at one point was a
top five Fantasy wide receiver. I think that he's another
year removed from his major knee injury. I think that

(27:33):
he's going to absolutely smash and I love getting him
round six, especially in full PPR as a wide receiver
three bide receiver. I always talk about this with Chris Godwin.
Name me thirty three receivers that are better than Chris Godwin.
You can't. So I think he's an auto pick for
me every time, especially as my wide receiver three four
put in the flex in a full PPR, I love it.

Speaker 3 (27:50):
Deeper, What do you think of Godwin?

Speaker 2 (27:52):
I've come around on Godwin. I actually tweeted about him
yesterday and I was like, which one is the real
Chris Godwin? But like talking about the slot and usage,
weeks one through thirteen, thirty six point one percent slot rate,
he was the wide receiver forty five and Fantasy points
per game, drew a twenty point four percent target chare
weeks fourteen through eighteen, it just went bonkers. Man wide

(28:13):
receiver sixteen and fantasy points per game. He was drawing
almost a twenty nine percent target share, and his slot
rate jumped up to forty four percent. So, Chris Godwin,
I want us to make sure that I stay ahead
of consensus with him. Right now, I have him as
our as wide receiver twenty eight. But I think the
conversation for Chris Godwin starts as high wide receiver twenty

(28:34):
one for me, like you can have him as a
wide receiver two in your ranks, and I will not
push back against that at all.

Speaker 1 (28:39):
I do find myself Ericson somewhat worried about what Baker
will LOOKLICK without Dave Canalis?

Speaker 3 (28:45):
Is that? To what degree are you considering that when
thinking about approaching this offense?

Speaker 4 (28:50):
Well, I think it works well. Chris Godwin was bad
in Dave Canalis offense, right, So that's kind of the
way you can spin it. I'm looking at this as
Liam Cohen is an upgrade for Chris Godwin. Now, does
that mean Baker Mayfield's numbers overall are better or worse.
I don't know, but Baker Mayfield has had a different
offense a coiinaer basically every single year of his career,
so he is a unknown commodity here. But I do
feel confident about the slot. So I think that your

(29:12):
concerns about Baker and Dave Canalis that would point me
more to Mike Evans and where he's being drafted versus
Chris Coblin, because I think that the value proposition. And again,
I'm not going to come on here and bet against
Mike Evans anymore because we all did that last year
and it was an epic face bomb, so we're not
going to do that again. But Chris Gowin, to me,
is the better value of the two Bucks receivers, especially
in this new offense. I projected forward round seven. First

(29:35):
time you had a running back here since round one. Yeah,
I know. I figured I'm following my hero RB approach,
just like I would do in a real draft. So
that's why I haven't touched the running back position since
round one, And for me, round seven is James Connor.
So I know that a lot of running backs in
this general range. We're worried about this guy. We're about
this rookie taking over. And in the case of James Connor,
they drafted Trade Benson in the third round to very

(29:56):
talented running back. He was my RB one of the rookies,
So I like Trade Benson a lot. But it's James
Connor's backfield until he gets hurt. And I think that
there's a scenario with this in a lot of cases
where it's Kyra Williams backfield till he gets hurt. It's
Zamir White's backfield till he gets hurt, and James Connor
goes behind all these guys. He's cheaper than all these guys.
So if I'm going to invest in a running back

(30:16):
that maybe is a little injury prone, I'm concerned about
the longevity. Okay, well, then I want to pay the
cheapest price for it, And for me, that's James Connor.
Last two seasons, he's eighth in rushing arts per game.
He's averaging seventy rushing cards per game in his last
twenty six games played. He's going to be a belcow
when he's on the field in an offense that wants
to run the football. When Kylin Murray came back last year,

(30:37):
they were one of the most run heavy offenses in
one of the most efficient running offenses with James Connor,
with James or when Kyler Murray came back. Over that time,
Connor RB seven overall, RB six and points per game.
He's never been worse than RB thirteen points per game
since becoming an Arizona Cardinal. And to like to put
the cherry on top, James Connor came out and said
last year was my floor. Thousand yard is my absolute

(31:01):
stone cold floor. And when you look at the numbers,
as long as he's healthy again that's a big if.
But he's going around seven. So when we're looking at
Week one rankings where James Connor is ranked, it's gonna
be my top twel running backs because he's gonna be
healthy for Week one. So I don't see your big
difference betwe him protecting him and a guy like Kyram
Williams who's not been really the bill of health throughout

(31:21):
his season. So I think he's an arbitrage play against
some of these more expensive running back where we're worried
about the longevity and the price is more expensive. But
James Connor, well, it's all baked in. He's going in
round seven. So that's why I think he's one of
my favorite picks, especially when I go with a hero
or zero RB approach.

Speaker 1 (31:37):
Yeah, Connor is sort of the forgotten man, I think
for a lot of people, just you know, aging running
back and all that stuff. Like you were alluding to
ericson Debro. You and I are both big fans of
Trey Benson, like in that landing spot and as a
long term play, like you sniped me on him in
our rookie draft in the Work Dynasty League, Like we
both are Benson fans. To what degree is his presence

(31:58):
weighing on how you're ranking James this year.

Speaker 2 (32:01):
I have James Connor as a top twenty running back.
I got him at RB nineteen. I think that, like
Erickson nailed it, this is his job until he misses
any time. And I think the other part that we
need to talk about with James Connor is outside of
the age, what are we that concerned about? I get
the injury stuff, but quietly, James Connor is coming off

(32:21):
one of the best seasons. You can make a really
good case that was the best season of James Connor's career,
like amongst all running backs at least one hundred toats
last year, eighth the miss tackles force per attempt, fifth
in yards up to contact per attempt. He's not shown
any type of falloff as far as tackle breaking metrics.
So despite the age and people are weighing the age

(32:42):
and Benson's you know, the draft pick of Benson, outside
of those things, what are we so concerned about for Connor?
Because he hasn't shown any kind of slippage as far
as his level of play. So now we're going to
get him a value because of all these other things.
If we're reading the room wrong and this is his
job and Benson just a guy that's there to take

(33:02):
a little bit of the carries away and be the
guy for next year, Yeah, James Connor is going to
be a really good pick.

Speaker 1 (33:08):
It was his fewest targets in a season since his
first full year, but he I mean, it was his
most r It's weird that he called it his floor
since it was the most rushing yards he's ever had
in a season. But like also like five yards per carry,
like that's a good number. He was good last year.

Speaker 4 (33:22):
So wit, he had more rushing yards last year than
he did with Pittsburgh.

Speaker 1 (33:25):
Yeah, at least according to what I'm looking at here.
In twenty eighteen it was nine hundred and seventy, but
he had like twelve touchdowns. Yeah, and then and he
had more receiving yards in that year.

Speaker 4 (33:33):
But here I was like, well, I know he also
missed some time at the end of the Steelers yeas
to both seasons he actually played, had thirteen games this
last year, one thy forty rushing yards in twenty eighteen
it was nine hundred and seventy, but he had more
touchdowns in twenty eighteen.

Speaker 1 (33:47):
Right, but yeah, no, a good player again, sort of overlooked.
I think given the age and the rookie that he's
sharing the backfield with. I want you guys to start disagreeing,
so don't fake it, but like you know, let's let's
let's get some spot.

Speaker 4 (33:59):
I think disagree on this next disagree.

Speaker 3 (34:02):
Will perfectly a transition, all right? Who you got ericson.

Speaker 4 (34:07):
Brian Thomas, junior wide receiver for the Jacksonville Jaguars, my
leak nighbors teammate at LSU. I think that the landing
spot for Brian Thomas is out of this world perfect.
I think that he's the perfect fit with a deep
ball passer like Trevor Lawrence. And last year they put
Calvin Ridley in that field stretcher role. That was a miscast.
They used Calvin Reridley the wrong way, and Calvin Ridley

(34:30):
saw all the usage you could want for a player
that should be producing for fantasy points. And that's why
I like Calvin Ridley this year because I think the
Titans are gonna use him the right way, not the
way that the Jaguars used him last year. Eighteen hundred
plus are yards, twenty three percent target share, thirty nine
percent erard share, he led the NFL and ends on targets.
He was wide receiver ten and expected points per game.
The Jaguars have come out and already talked about how

(34:50):
they're putting Brian Thomas Junior in this role with this
type of opportunity. It doesn't seem like that. It seems
that they have a crowded wide receiver room with Christian Kirk,
with Evan, they brought in Gabe Davis. Kim Davis has
never commanded the hundred targets in a single season, and
Evan Ingram and Christian Kirk are going to eat the underneath.
But what are those guys not see? What do they
not command? Last year, they didn't command red zone targets,

(35:11):
They didn't command high value targets. That was all Calvin Ridley.
So I Brian Thomas Junior is in this role where
he's seeing the downfield targets, he's seeing the red zone targets. Well,
he's going to be an amazing pick as a rookie
wide receiver who's selected in the first round and always
viewed as the consensus top four or the fourth wide
receiver in this really talented rookie class. So for me,
I think he's going to get well over on hundred targets.

(35:32):
And you just look at rookie receivers who have gotten
over one hundred targets. They have well exceeded expectations. So
Calvin Ridley's a Jones. They combined for nearly two hundred
targets last season. There is more than enough available for
Brian Thomas, along with Kirk, along with Ingram, Gabe Davis.
If he gets any targets for Brian Thomas to cook
here in this offense, I think that he's a perfect fit.
And what the drag? What the Jaguars need on offense,

(35:53):
especially for Trevor Lawrence Debra.

Speaker 2 (35:56):
I like Brian Thomas Junior, but I don't love him.
I think there's some duplicity in terms of roles in
him and Gabriel Davis. I just look at I think
the way this offense functions, and I'm very high on
this passing attack and Trevor Lawrence. I won't push back
as far as like. I think Trevor Lawrence is going
to air the ball out. I think the deep targets
are going to be there. I think it's going to

(36:17):
be kind of split up between him and Gabriel Davis.
I think Christian Kirk and Evan Ingram are going to
be the clear one A one B as far as
target earners in this offense. I like Brian Thomas Junior,
but when looking at him as a prospect, I think
his route tree is a little more limited. If they
use him perfectly as far as what he excels at
which could happen, then yes, he could blow up. I

(36:39):
just don't see him as being a high end target
chair earner out the gate and specific to his role,
I think he is going to have splash weeks. I
just worry about the target earning potential, and the consistency
out of him considering what they're going to expect or
want from him.

Speaker 1 (36:54):
I think it's an interesting debate. I tend to lean
more on the Eric's side of Thomas. There is another rookie.
We actually have a few rookie he's coming up here
in these picks. Let's go to let's go to round
nine with the rookie that I know.

Speaker 4 (37:03):
Deepro was well, you should be drafting rookies. That's a
theme in this in my targets. You should always drafting
rookies aggressively, and this is I think he's the I
haven't checked my best ball exposures or whatever, but I
think Jane Daniels has to be the most drafted quarterback
I have. I just think it's so easy for him
to have success at the NFL level. He's a mobile,

(37:24):
rushing quarterback that we're still getting a discount on because
there are people out there that are afraid he's going
to get injured when he never really got injured last
year or at the college level anyway. Because he looks
like he takes big hits, but then he gets back
up and he's okay. So I don't know. If he
stays healthy, Jan Daniels is going to be the late
round quarterback that you wanted the entire time. Sixty rushing
arts per game, that was his average to the college level.

(37:45):
That was the same as Anthony Richardson, who we saw
last year in four games be an absolute monster for
fantasy football. And we've already seen this offense with a
mobile quarterback work Cliff Kinggury. We saw it work his
magic with Kyler Murray in year one. Current Kyler Murray
was QB seven overall his rookie season, QB twelve and
points per game as a rookie third and carries second
in rushing yards. So I just think it's a really

(38:06):
no brainer pick. It's a mobile quarterback that I think
has some untapped potential as a passer. I think that
Jane Daniels was a really good passer at LSU. You
look a lot of advanced metrics, he's at the top
and essentially everyone now throwing to leak neighbors. Brian Thomas
Jior two guys. I also like I'm basically drafting all
of LSU's college football team from last year on this
NFL Fantasy football roster but for me, Jane Daniels is

(38:27):
my number one target when it comes to the late
round quarterback approach, Debro have at it.

Speaker 2 (38:34):
Jane Daniels is one of the best picks you can
make him. I mean that's just straight up. I mean,
I don't how else do we have to encapsulate this.
He's going to be a QB one he and now
I see ECR is waking up. He's finally you mean
twelve and ECR, Thank you, ECR. I love it so
much because we've been here and now I'm so glad

(38:57):
that everybody is now on the party.

Speaker 4 (38:59):
Well el I love it.

Speaker 2 (39:03):
I love it, I love it. I love it. Jane
Daniels is my QB nine. I can make you a
case that he should be as high as QB seven
in ranks. He's going to run this offense is going
to run a crap ton of plays. People are underestimating
how good the Commander's offense is going to be this year.
Jane Daniels smash pick.

Speaker 3 (39:23):
All right, let's keep the rookie train rolling in round ten.

Speaker 4 (39:26):
Round ten. For me, I think it's the running back,
the rookie running back with the most contingent upside in
case of an injury, and it's Blake Coorm, So I
am now the biggest Kieren Williams person in terms of
drafting him where he goes. I think that the end
of round three is more appropriate for Kaien Williams, but
he usually gets drafted ahead of that, so I'm not
drafting Kien Williams at his current price, so I'm taking
advantage of that. I'm taking advantage of that fade by

(39:47):
looking at his backup running back and Blake Korm. I
think Korum would be very productive if he was in
that Kien Williams role. Is Sean mcvayze do it all
running back? Historically speaking, that's what Sean mcvayze wanted, and
Blake Korm showed at Michigan that he could do. He
could carry the workload thirty three percent dominating final season,
he rushed for twenty seven touchdowns. This guy, who was
a monster producer at Michigan for multiple seasons and will

(40:09):
point to some of the advanced metrics from last year,
wasn't as efficient well, was coming off a major kN injury.
This is what always happens with running backs. But now
he's another year removed from that torn acl so I
expect him to be more efficient as a rusher. It's
the perfect system for him. He's at Kiron Williams carbon
copy clone. That's what we have here with Blake Krn.
Make scept he goes in round ten and Kyle Wilms
is going ahead of him in round three. But we

(40:29):
haven't seen Kinyer Wims play full season yet. So I
get Kayan Willms super productive. But it's the role, man,
it's the role that you want. The rams RB won.
If I had just gotten over, if I had not
convinced myself that Sean Payton or excuse me, Sean McVay
was backing on cam akers Las year, I would have
been drafted more Kaien Williams. But I fell for it,
and I've just seen Sean McVay sour on running back

(40:50):
so quickly. Where if Kiren gets dinged up here or there,
Blake Korn comes in provides a spark to this offense.
There's there's the bench Kiren there. You go like Blake
Orm's coming in for your job. So I think that
round ten, I think he's a massive upside play, and
at worse he's a round ten pick. So if kN
Williams stays healthy for more the majority of the season,
then I still think it's worth it to have him
as a handcuff in case Knen Williams goes down.

Speaker 1 (41:13):
I would so much rather draft Korm in round ten
than Kiren and around two. Like I to me, it's
like a total noe brainer if you're trying to invest
in this backfield and in the Sean mcvayh offense.

Speaker 3 (41:23):
Deebro, what do you make of Korum this year?

Speaker 2 (41:27):
I mean, Kiren goes down, Korum is going to be
an RB one weekly in ranks, probably a top five,
top seven back I mean, we just there's nobody else
coming for that volume. And the thing that I think
is such a locked in fit for Blake Koram is
we saw Sean McVeigh change up their entire run game
scheme they win, went away from a lot of the

(41:47):
stretch soll on outside his own stuff and really got
where Okay, Kyroen doesn't have we know that. Okay, the
testing metrics, but the lateral agility and things get him downhill.
That type of run games scheme is going to be
just set and forget perfect fit for Blake Korum. So
he's a good fit for this offense, and I think
Korum honestly could have standalone contingent like outside of the

(42:09):
contingent upside as a cuff like I think Koram this
year saying Kyron even just stays healthy. I think Koram
is the guy that with the Rams get up in
games or we're talking about who's salting the clock away
and to keep Kyrien Williams healthy. I think we're gonna
see Blake Korum in a thirty to maybe forty percent
snapshare depending on game scripts for the Rams. But I

(42:31):
think he's the guy where they're saying, Okay, we're going
to run it to close out the game, that's going
to be Blake Koram. So to be honest, this is
all dependent upon what you think also of the Rams defense,
and if this is a game that's going to play
or a team that's going to play from ahead a lot.

Speaker 3 (42:46):
This year, we.

Speaker 2 (42:47):
Could see Blake Koram getting eight to ten touches on
a weekly basis. Now some weeks it might not be
that considering the game script, and I think Kyroen's going
to be in there for passing downs and stuff. But
if the Rams are blowing teams out, or if they
were a much better team than Maybe we're giving them
credit this year because hey, they outpaced expectations last year.
If Stafford can stay healthy the entire year and Cup

(43:09):
can stay healthy, I'm not going to bet against them
doing it even more this season. Korum could have more
standalone value than we're giving him credit, and if Kyron
goes down, he's an RB one weekly.

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(43:44):
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(44:25):
later rounds here ericson round eleven.

Speaker 3 (44:27):
Who is your top target?

Speaker 4 (44:29):
Josh Palmer, wide receiver for the Los Angeles Chargers. Low key.
Josh Palmer last year was pacing for nearly twelve hundred
receiving yards before his injury. He's fully on his way
to a breakout, and I'm saying in year four, there's
no stopping this man. Josh Palmer season is here. He
has the most built in chemistry with Justin Herbert in
an offense that has a lot of question marks. They
got rid of Mike Williams, got rid of Keenan Allen,

(44:50):
and I think Josh Palmer's being slept on overall because
he showed at least in times when those guys missed
time Mike Williams and Keenan Allen, Josh Palmer stepped up
more often than not, and that's not always a given
with receivers that are stepping up into bigger roles, especially
when they're younger. So for me, it's Josh Palmer round eleven.
This Charter's offense is going to be good. I think

(45:10):
it's going to be effective with the quarterback they have,
with the upgrade offensive line, and I get the ret
narrative is there should be run the ball a million
times well Teezer said and done, especially if you're down
fourteen to nothing. You can't just continue to run the
football when you're losing the game and you have just
an urbanity as your quarterback. So I think betting on
receivers with just good quarterbacks is good process. And I
see a path for targets for Josh Palmer in this offense.

(45:31):
So round eleven, it's Josh Palmer for me.

Speaker 3 (45:33):
Where do you have Josh Palmer ranked? Deebro?

Speaker 1 (45:35):
And also, what do you make of that kind of
angle to the throwing the ball versus running the ball
narrative that Ericson just hit on.

Speaker 2 (45:43):
I think it definitely can happen. I think we've gotten
a little bit out of our skis as far as
how much we think they're going to run the ball,
like could that happen? Sure, but you also have need
the running backs to do that, and look looking at
the running back room. That's another reason why I'm so
high on Kamani Bdell, Like I'm not. I don't love
Gus Edward. I don't even know if JK. Dobbins makes
it out of camp. I've got Josh Palmer as my

(46:03):
wide receiver forty right now. I think that he leads
his team in receiving yards and it's not Lad McConkey.
And I know Joey P's gonna hate that. I know
a lot of people are gonna hate hearing that. But
for the points that ericson make made for Josh Palmer.
He was also I listed Palmer in my top ten
Fantasy sleepers of the season in the video that just
dropped on YouTube. So he's coming out, Josh, I mean

(46:24):
he was because it's free money. The way that I
look at it, like, why are we not looking at
what Josh Palmer did without Mike Williams in the lineup
last year, Like you alluded to the breakout season, but
with Josh Palmer seven games, no Mike Williams last year,
and we have no Mike Williams. He's surrounded by QJ
who was a colossal flop last year, and Ladd McConkey,

(46:45):
and we don't even know if Lad's gonna play when
they go into twelve personnel this year, so we don't
even know if he's going to be a full snap player.
And Josh Palmer in those seven games eight almost nineteen
percent target chair, thirty one point four percent air yard cheer.
He had two point one nine yards perron run, and
he averaged almost seventy two receiving arts per game. Ericson
talked about the easiest stat that correlates not only like

(47:07):
fantasy points per game, but receiving yards per game to
fantasy production. Josh Palmer has already shown us. We've already
had insight into what he can do if he's the
number one target in an offense or number two target.
He's going to be that this year. He is a wonderful,
wonderful late round pick and sleeper this year.

Speaker 1 (47:26):
Yeah, I mean a guy who could be the top
target earner pair to the quarterback like Justin Herbert.

Speaker 3 (47:31):
That's a pretty good investment for round eleven, who's.

Speaker 4 (47:34):
Also young He's not like this old dusty veteran. Yeah,
he's a young guys, good dynasty buyer.

Speaker 2 (47:41):
Nobody wants to.

Speaker 3 (47:42):
Let's go around twelve another young receiver.

Speaker 4 (47:45):
Yes, Dontavian Wicks. Righters. Hear the Green Bay Packers the
human hype machine, because anytime you just search this guy's
name on Google, it's just more hype about Dan Davian Wicks.
So I'm following the drum beat of the offseason that
this is wicks time to shine. And I guess because
he was really efficient last year. Per True Media, wicks
first down per route run tied Devanta Adams for eighteenth

(48:06):
among all players. He averaging only two yards per out run,
ranked twenty seventh among all wide receivers, fifth among rookie
wide receivers. And last year we didn't see a true
number one wide receiver step up in this offense. Jordan
Love really spread the love essentially between his pass catchers.
So maybe that changes with Christian Watson back. I don't know,
but I think that he's going late enough in drafts
in round twelve where he would not be surprised at

(48:27):
this point if Wick steps up and ends up overtaking
Romeo Dobbs. Now he's a full time starter. Oh now
he emerges as their primary deep threat. Maybe Christian Watson
can't stay healthy. I think that there's certain scenarios where
you're seeing Wix get more playing time and at least
what we saw from last year. When this guy gets
on the field, he should be efficient in an offense
that we're really excited about. And because he's so much cheap,
he goes behind Watson, he goes behind Dobbs, he goes

(48:49):
behind Jayden Reid. Well, we could look up Week one
and he's playing more snaps than one of those guys.
So you're already getting a strong return on your investment
if he's not even the wide receiver four by the
time week one kicks off. So that's where he's being
drafted as wide receiver four, and I think that when
it's all said and done, he won't be the wide
receiver four in terms of production.

Speaker 1 (49:06):
On the Green Bay Packers, we tweeted out this quote
graphic today that you know, Jordan Love was quoted as saying,
I think Dontavian Wicks is gonna have a monster year.

Speaker 3 (49:14):
That's what you want to hear.

Speaker 4 (49:16):
So he can make that happen. So I think that
it's different when he comes from a coach or something
like that, because coaches are always trying to puff up
their players. But when it comes to the guy who
controls where the ball goes, Jordan Love, I think that
that matters.

Speaker 3 (49:30):
You've already make a Wix.

Speaker 2 (49:33):
Oh, this is one of my wet blanket moments.

Speaker 4 (49:37):
Have you been so good so far?

Speaker 2 (49:39):
I understand the reasons for the Wicks hype, Okay, I
get it, But how tilted is ever everybody going to
be if Dontavian Wicks does remain the wide receiver four
on this team and he is not playing a full
route here because the only two guys when Christian Watson
was healthy, the only two players that had over seventy
percent route per drop was Watson and Dobbs. And really,

(50:03):
just okay, I know everybody's gonna say, well, Watson's gonna
get hurt, so that's how Wicks gets in the lineup.
What if Watson stays healthy, then how does Wicks get
into the lineup? Because I don't think that he's playing
over Jay and Reid in the slot. I don't think
that he's playing on the outside of the Romeo Dobbs. I.
We can have the conversation for days about do I
think that Wis is a better player than Romeo Dobbs.

(50:24):
I do, but I don't know I believes that.

Speaker 4 (50:28):
Stop you right, If you think Wix is a better
player than Dobbs, then you should be pushing your chips
in on that.

Speaker 2 (50:33):
But but does Lafleur believe that?

Speaker 4 (50:36):
I know, he's made all seems like he believes it.

Speaker 2 (50:39):
What is Jordan gonna say? Like if somebody asked him
a question.

Speaker 4 (50:42):
He's gonna be like, dude, get Dobbs off the field.

Speaker 2 (50:45):
Get He's not saying that about any of his after
last year showed he could. He's gonna puff up his guys.
That's how it goes.

Speaker 4 (50:54):
He's not puffing up Romeo Dobbs saying, well, I'll.

Speaker 2 (50:57):
Say this, if you talked about earlier arbitrage plays, I
have an arbitrage play off a Danavian Wicks, and he's
on the same roster for everything you mentioned about Dontavian Wicks.

Speaker 4 (51:08):
Stop with bau Moltain, stop stop what we're doing the
same thing.

Speaker 2 (51:12):
You're talking about small route share sample sizes and Dntavian Wicks.
The yards per route run the first downs per rout
run are great. Well, guess who beat him in both
of those categories and yards per out run and first
downs per out run. It was bow Melton.

Speaker 4 (51:26):
So many fewer routes did he run? Like one hundred
and fifty? Yeah, we're not talking about That's what I thought.

Speaker 2 (51:33):
Next next round Worm, he only ran sixty nine routes.
It was a nice number and still not very many.
I get it. But what I'm just trying to say
is if we want to expand and play this game
of small sample size efficiency, then we can also play
that game with bow Melntain. But I know that's not
the sexy game that everybody wants to play. It's all

(51:53):
Dantavian Wicks.

Speaker 3 (51:54):
Let's bring back the love in this with a player
that I know vera so bad. Let's get around thirteen here, ericson.

Speaker 4 (52:08):
Round thirteen is Jilliam McLoughlin running back for the Denver Broncos.
And I'm not even sure I'm qualified to talk about
mclofflin because I'm just a member of the committee. Because
we're here with the chairman, President, CEO, founder of the
Jillian mclofflin Club. So Debro I think the Floridas yours, honestly, I.

Speaker 2 (52:29):
Mean, dude, and correct me if over wrong. Erickson, doesn't
he feel like their easiest smash running back pick in
drafts right now? I mean where he goes in drafts,
the passing down back for a Sean Payton offense. And
I'm just gonna I'm gonna tie a nice little bow
on this and keep this short and sweet. Sean Payton
in nine years, the last nine years of coordinating an

(52:49):
offense in the NFL, his team has never finished lower
than fourth in targets to the running back position. They
led the freaking league in it. We have checked down
Charlie and Bownicks now under center all year. How does
that not happen? I mean outside of people projecting samaj
p Ryan to get targets and still be on this
roster or Blake Watson, how does Julia McLoughlin not smash

(53:14):
as the passing down back for the Denver Broncos. I
want to throw that back to you, Ericson, because I
just don't understand why more people are not out there
talking about his upside this season.

Speaker 4 (53:26):
I think it's because they're afraid of just the running
back and ambiguity of the situation, like, what's Savante's role?
They're talking aboutic estimate, they're talking to Blake Watson. What
are the backfield? Are we mentioning five guys potentially being involved?
We really aren't. And I think that's more of a
or a con against Javonte Williams and being terrified of
drafting him. But McLoughlin, it's really about can you just

(53:49):
fix up his pass pro in year two? We see
running backs make significant leaps from year one year two.
We see it all the time, and McLoughlin, I know
it's been a while since we've seen a running back
that's a strict pass catcher. Really, you know, hit the
top of fantasy the James White years, Nim Hines random
years where they they spiking touchdown production but ended up
catching sixty sixty seventy balls. Are we super confident about

(54:11):
the receivers in Denver? Are we super confident about the
tight ends in Denver? We're super coffid about the quarterback? Well,
I know bo Nicks not great, but I know he
can do one thing for me, and let's throw the
ball at the running back. I know that can happen.
So for me. Mcgloffam looks like that guy, and I'm
glad we're are locks, but I'm glad I'm part of
the club.

Speaker 2 (54:27):
It's all gonna say, party bus never stops, Baby, don't
run out again.

Speaker 1 (54:30):
Which was the one of you that ever declined an
offer from the other for McLoughlin in Dynasty.

Speaker 4 (54:37):
Deebro's thought zacually, Deebro, Yeah, tried to him it was
a Marvin Mims deal, but you know he said that, oh, no,
I don't, I can't trade. No, it was mcglofflin for
Marvin Mims straight up, and he was like, no, I
would rather have Marvin Mims, who's probably gonna fall out
of favor with Troy Franklin. Despite Julian mcglofflin being a
let me check the ranks top twenty Dynasty running back
for Debro and Marvin Mims, couldn't get the deal done.

Speaker 2 (55:00):
This is what happens when everybody uses your ranks against
you and just totally disregards I just, oh, my lord,
see this is why we can't every single league and
it gets brought up on the shows. Man, it's so painful.
It's so painful.

Speaker 4 (55:18):
I'm just excited to start mclough in that league every
single week.

Speaker 1 (55:20):
All right, Well, let's speaking of painful. The next player
here is JK. Dobbins and ericson when you set in
the list, you wrote running back Baltimore, and that hurt
my heart because I did love I had such hope
for him in Baltimore.

Speaker 3 (55:34):
He of course is now in Los Angeles.

Speaker 2 (55:36):
Yea worm.

Speaker 4 (55:37):
But the last time we saw JK. Dobbins was in Baltimore, unfortunately,
but he was effective. He high starts per carry the
last two seasons. Running backs that have it higher than JK.
Dobbins devonie Chan end of list. Look, JK Dobbins has
been a super efficient running back at the NFL level
wherever he's gone, whenever he's been healthy. That's a big
question mark. Is he healthy? Is he not? His contract
is zero guarantees in it, so is it possibly he

(55:59):
doesn't make the roster. Yeah, it's totally possible. But what
if he is on the roster, what if he's healthy,
He's a Round fourteen pick. I'm willing to swing for
the fences at this point because from a talent perspective, JK.
Dobbins is more talented running back than Kamani Valdell and
Gus Edwards. In my opinion, I can see if someone disagrees,
that's fine. But based on what I've seen from the NFL,
based on JK. Dobbins efficiency, based on his vision, based

(56:21):
on how effective he's been in this offense. Where last
year Gus Edwards' career year, that wasn't Greg Roman's offense.
It's a totally different offense where Gus Edwards had a
career year in terms of touchdowns. So and Greg Roman
always played JK. Dobbins over Gus Edwards. They had to
pay Gus Edwards because he'scored all the touchdowns, because it's
how it works in the NFL. And because JK. Dobbins
is coming off the torn Achilles, they don't have to pay
him anything. It's just being smart. So but when it

(56:43):
comes down to the actual talent, I think Dobbins is
the guy. And I always bring this up on to
talk about Dobbins, But Dane Jeremier from NFL dot Com
very plugged into both the Ravens and Chargers. That's who
he's betting on. Is this guy JK. Dobbins. I'm gonna
believe that, you know, he's an insider source and he
thinks j Dobbins, if healthy, he's going to be the
r one in this offense. And if this offense is

(57:03):
really as run, run heavy and run effective as we
think it can be, I mean JK Dobbins could be
an absolute monster. And the other thing too, I was
thinking about this as well. Jack Dobbins was always talked
about as this great pass catcher. We all kind of
just like rubbed it off because, oh, well, they never
throw the running back, so it doesn't really matter. That
could change a little bit this year, like Justin Herbert
will throw the ball to the running back. What if JK.

(57:24):
Dobbins actually captures a bigger target share in this offense
that maybe all of us are really overlooking. And I
had to kind of think twice about it because I
do remember all those reports of oh JK Dobbs gonna catch,
sobody pass them. We're like, no, he's not, like we've
done the LaVar, doesn't throw it into the running back.
It's not gonna happen. But maybe this year it's a
little bit different. So look, we're gonna find out if
he's healthy come week one and come in training camp.

(57:46):
But if he is, I can guarantee you're gonna get
value on a round fourteen pick.

Speaker 1 (57:49):
So the only thing I disagree with you on is
when you said you could see how other people might
disagree on there being a gap in talent between Dobblins
and there is. I don't think you can justify an
argument against that. Like, he is the most talented running
back by a mile in this backfield if he's healthy.
Now I understand people who want to bet against him
being healthy. That is like a reasonable stance to take.

(58:11):
It's a round fourteen pick. I guarantee if he plays
seventeen games for the Chargers this season, he will be
a league winner in round fourteen. Like there's just no
world where if he's healthy, he's not absolutely smashing smashing value.

Speaker 4 (58:23):
Got him in scott Fishball. So I'm hopeful for it.

Speaker 1 (58:26):
I mean, and I mean again, the talent is supreme,
Like you hit on really all the points already. But
I just I love this pick and the other thing
that you didn't say. But the other reason I love
this pick is and you kind of alluded to it
when you said we'll know kind of in week one
how healthy is.

Speaker 3 (58:40):
He's an easy guy to drop if it's clear that
it's just gone, like.

Speaker 1 (58:44):
If it's not the juice is gone, if the achilles
is not, like if whatever it is, If he's not healthy,
he's not going to clog up the back end of
your roster or the back end of your bench.

Speaker 3 (58:52):
You can move on.

Speaker 1 (58:53):
It's pure upside and the downside is one week of
a guy wasting away on your bench. It's one of
my favorite picks and drafts because the gap between the
upside case and the draft capital we have to spend
is as wide with him as it is with any
player in drafts this year, and I'm all over it,
even aside from the fact that he's a former Raven deeper.

Speaker 3 (59:13):
What do you think about Dobbins this year?

Speaker 2 (59:16):
I mean, y'all just highlighted every reason why I need
to draft more Dobbins and why I've been so aggressive.
A Kamani Videll like this is just a hedge. It's
a bet against Gus Edwards, and again all the risk
for Dobbins's is baked in. Now I'm higher on Videll
than I am Dobbins because I'm trying to learn. You know, again,

(59:36):
we talked about Cam Akers earlier. I'm trying to learn
things from yesteryear as far as missteps that we have
taken and stuff, as far as players coming off of
an achilles and stuff. And that's the part where we
just don't know where Dobbins is at. Like, can we
say he's healthy at this point? Sure? Can we say
he's the same explosive athlete that he has shown whenever
he's been given opportunities or gotten opportunities previously in his NFL.

(01:00:00):
That's what I don't know now. Again, all of the
risk is baked into where he goes and drafts, but
none of the upside. Even if he can hold this
job and say he's not the JK. Dobbins of old
as being so explosive, so awesome, maybe he's middle of
the road. If he's healthy and he's middle of the road,

(01:00:21):
he's still a better player than I think Gus Edwards is,
And we can have the conversation about him versus Kamani Videll.
But I again, I want to take shots on this backfield.
I'm not going to push back against JK. Dobbins, but
I'll also say, like this is also the case of
why you need to either draft both of these guys
and take shots in Best Ball specifically and get exposure
because I don't think it's gonna be Gus Edwards. It's

(01:00:43):
either gonna be Dobbins or it's gonna be Videl. Yeah.

Speaker 1 (01:00:45):
I want to invest in both for sure, but again
just at this price given what.

Speaker 4 (01:00:49):
I don't think there's nothing wrong with that either, because
week one will tell us a lot you could and
you can cut the guy that's not playing and you
move on. So it's okay to hedge a little bit
if the cost no nothing to do it. If I
had the Chargers going back to draft Gus Edwards, I
mean someone in this backfield, they're all going outside.

Speaker 1 (01:01:04):
I really hate Gus because yeah, that's the point. It's
like none of them are going so high that it's
like prohibitive draft capital. And it's like, oh, I like
can't justify a seventh round pick.

Speaker 3 (01:01:14):
They're not going that high. So I I'll invest in
all three of.

Speaker 4 (01:01:17):
Us, especially with the narrative being oh, this offense can
be so run heavy, and then all the running backs
are outside the top hundred picks. It's like, wait, this
doesn't add up.

Speaker 1 (01:01:26):
But that's why if Dobbin because they're going later, so
it's just you know, better value, and I think they
just get a chance is being.

Speaker 4 (01:01:33):
The Also won't cut Gus because you're investing more on him,
so you're gonna wait a little bit longer to see it.
And I think that he is like viewed as the
RB one and he should be the rby one week one.
But we'll see how that works out.

Speaker 2 (01:01:46):
The only thing I can definitively tell you about this
backfield is it will not be Isaiah Spilling.

Speaker 4 (01:01:52):
So thanks, Oh, we need to have this in the
memory bank for when Isaiah Spiller leads the Chargers in
rushing yards they're like.

Speaker 2 (01:01:59):
Oh, well, just look, everybody is today years old. Just
finding on that Spiller is still in that.

Speaker 1 (01:02:07):
Roster, just to throw that out there, all right, two
picks left here? Who do you have in round fifteen?

Speaker 4 (01:02:11):
Ericson, I feel like I talked about this gun every
single show I go on Sleepers. Round fifteen it's Roshawan
Johnson running back for the Chicago Bears, betting completely against
DeAndre Swift and the fact that whoever his teammates are
end up scoring all the rushing touchdowns because he's not
a red zone running back. We've seen it with multiple teams.
They don't like using at the goal line twenty twenty two.
Jamal Williams seventeen touchdowns. Jalen Hurts last year for the

(01:02:34):
Eagles fifteen touchdowns. I think Al Herbert could be a
potential trade candidate, cut candidate. He's in the last year
of his deal. He's also not he was not drafted
by the current regime that Chicago has. Chicago could not
stop talking about Roshan Johnson after they draft him last year,
and Roshan was one of the best pass protectors. He
had the second most pass Pro snaps for rookie running
backs last year, only behind Tajay Spears. That tells me

(01:02:55):
that the Bears trust him. And that's what I'm looking
for in this backfield. Who are they going to give
the high value touches to. Who's gonna be playing on
third down, Who's gonna be in the red zone. That's
gonna be Roshan Johnson for me. And he's going around
fifteen for an offense that we're really excited about. We're
not really sure where the pieces are going to fit.
We'd like Katleb Williams, but we don't know who's number
one target. It's gonna be. We think this offense can
be above average, rochan If he ends up being the

(01:03:17):
goal line back, he's gonna have over ten plus rushing
touchdowns this season. If he's a third down back, he's
going to catch forty balls out of the backfield. So
I just love Roshan Johnson betting against DeAndre Swift. To me,
Deander Swift is just that another version of the Chase Edmonds,
the Kenyan Drake, the Miles Sanders, the guy that got
the bag first in free agency, and we just never

(01:03:37):
thought about him again. And we're not drafting Andre Swift
at all next year. So I think Swif's gonna be
the first crack at it. But I think west All
send down Rushaan's gonna be the RB one. And I
just can't get out of my mind that last year
DeAndre Swift he lost the RB one job to Kenneth Gainwell.
Kenneth Gamewill was this week one starter for the Philadelphia Eagles,
then he got hurt and then Swift out a monster
game so they couldn't take him out of lineup. But

(01:03:58):
I think that Swift is going to be the RB
one for this team long term, and it's gonna be
Roshan Debro.

Speaker 2 (01:04:04):
I have no problem with you calling DeAndre Swift this
year is Miles Sanders. None at all. I think you
need to And again I'm hedging, firmly hedging against DeAndre
Swift in drafts. I'm drafting a ton of Roshan Johnson
and I'm drafting a ton of Klul Herbert.

Speaker 3 (01:04:18):
Let's go to round sixteen to wrap things up. Another
running back, and.

Speaker 1 (01:04:21):
By the way, Erickson chose to not include defenses and kickers,
which I fully support.

Speaker 3 (01:04:26):
Who's your running back here? To wrap things up?

Speaker 4 (01:04:28):
I only only included one quarterback and one tight end
because I don't play. I don't draft for bread. Those
are my guys. Draft scared drafting backups, don't draft you
Right round sixteen, a top five rookie running back for
me in this year's class, Tyrone Tracy, running back for
the New York Giants. I have two giants on my list.
That's not terrifying at all, but let's roll with it.
I think Tyrone Tracy showed last year in his first

(01:04:51):
year playing the running back position at Purdue. He was
super effective led the draft class in yards after contact
per attempt. He's still learning the position and and everything
I've read about him so far, he's a converted wide
receiver and the Giants are trying to find ways to
get him more involved. He's going to be returning punts,
returning kicks, And when I'm looking at for a path
through opportunities, who has the starting RB one role Dvid

(01:05:13):
Singletary's fine, and I think that he's going to be
the running back to open the season and start the
year for the majority. But if the Giants are in
a place where we need more juice, we need more expulsiveness,
we need something more on offense. Well, I think Tyron
Tracy can be that guy potentially based on what he
did at the college level, how he's in experienced at
running back, but the expulsiveness and what he showed in
just one year leaving the draft class in ards after

(01:05:35):
contact per attempt, that shows that this guy is an
immense upside and I think that's Singletary. We've seen enough
of him. He's not the upside play, he's the floor play.
They feel safe with him, but I think the Giants
want to unlock their rushing game potentially a step forward.
I think Tyron Tracy can be that guy.

Speaker 3 (01:05:49):
Do you writ any thoughts on Tracy before we get
out of here?

Speaker 2 (01:05:53):
I mean, he's a fantastic late round pick all science
point to this will not be Eric Gray as the
RB two. I don't know what else people need to
see out Eric Grade to know that he will not
be the RB two for the Giants. And yes, I
mean there's nobody else in this roster, so if it's
not Devin Singletary, it's gonna be Tyrond Tracy again.

Speaker 3 (01:06:10):
All the snaps, all.

Speaker 1 (01:06:11):
Right, we will get out of here on Thanks everybody
for tuning in. We will get to one of these
for deepro at some point in the coming weeks. I'm
sure that those are Ericson's top targets for every round.

Speaker 4 (01:06:21):
I can guarantee I won't agree with nearly as many.

Speaker 1 (01:06:24):
I think we'll get a little more. I'll make sure,
all right for Ericson at NZBRO. I'm Ryan Warmley. Everybody,
thanks for tuning in. We'll see again next time. Thanks
for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football podcast. If
you love the show, the best free way to support
us is by leading a positive review on Apple Podcasts
at fantasypros dot com, Slash Review or on Spotify. Follow

(01:06:46):
us on x, Instagram and TikTok at Fantasy Pros, and
subscribe to our YouTube channel at YouTube dot com Slash
Fantasypros

Speaker 4 (01:07:14):
Absolute Epic Show, Epic

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