August 29, 2025 • 24 mins
Get last-minute 2025 fantasy football draft advice heading into Labor Day Weekend by joining Ryan Wormeli and Dr. Deepak Chona for their key NFL injuries to know!
Is another foot injury the end of the road for Houston Texans RB Joe Mixon? When will Tampa Bay Buccaneers WR Chris Godwin be back to full speed? Plus, what's the re-injury risk for Miami Dolphins RB De’Von Achane?
The Pros let you know what ailments matter and which are just noise!
Timestamps: (May be off due to ads)
Intro - 0:00:00
FantasyPros ECR Rankings - 0:00:53
Brandon Aiyuk (WR - SF) - 0:01:34
Jauan Jennings (WR - SF) & Ricky Pearsall (WR - SF) - 0:02:56
DraftKings Best Ball - 0:05:02
Chris Godwin (WR - TB) - 0:06:23
Joe Mixon (RB - HOU) - 0:09:16
Fantrax - 0:10:31
Najee Harris (RB - LAC) - 0:11:47
Matthew Stafford (QB - LAR) - 0:12:49
Jayden Reed (WR - GB) - 0:14:27
De’Von Achane (RB - MIA) - 0:15:42
Kenneth Walker III (RB - SEA) - 0:17:57
Tyjae Spears (RB - TEN) - 0:19:53
Isaiah Likely (TE - BAL) - 0:21:06
FantasyPros Auto-Pilot - 0:23:15
Outro - 0:23:54
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Hello, everybody, Welcome into Fantasy Pros. I'm Ran Warmley, joined
by my friend doctor Deepak Chow and he is sport
MD analysis. We have done many shows together over the years,
some live shows, some pre recorded. I believe last year
you and I did the same thing we're going to
do today, which is a bit of a season preview
from an injury perspective, sort of a short form video
where we hit on about a dozen or so names. Here.
(00:22):
Just give folks who are drafting this weekend, because as
we talked about before we started recording, it is the
biggest draft weekend of the year. Give them some last
minuted injury insights from an actual doctor here about what
to expect from maybe some of these recovery timelines. A
lot of the stuff that you do is really backed
by data and kind of the science behind this, So
you obviously come to this with a lot of expertise
in terms of, you know, evaluating these injuries as best
(00:45):
we can from afar and seeing what's going to happen.
Is that sound like a good plan here?
Speaker 2 (00:49):
Yeah, that sounds great. Appreciate that and let's get it.
Let's get it rolling.
Speaker 1 (00:53):
I will remind everybody that all of our twenty twenty
five consensus rankings and tiers can be found at Fantasypros
dot com slash rankings. And also I do just want
to take a moment to kind of thank the audience
as we're sort of wrapping up our off season coverage,
obviously not wrapping up Fantasy Pros, you know stuff in
general we have with the whole lot coming your way
in season, but sort of wrapping up the off season
part of the programming. Just thanks everybody for listening throughout
the summer, and you know, the best way to support
(01:15):
the show is by leaving a review and make it
an honest one. If you have feedback, we want to
hear it. But by leaving a review at Fantasypros dot
com slash review and by rating the show wherever it
is that you're listening to your podcast. So we really
appreciate the feedback. It helps to grow the show and
also make it better. We want to make the show
kind of our best foot forward as best as we
possibly can, so I wanted to get that out of
the way. Let's dive into some injuries to know before
(01:36):
your drafts. I want to start kind of with the
forty nine ers in general. Brandon Ayuk somebody who obviously
he's got it delayed start to his season last year
with you know, some of the hold out stuff, and
then he ends up missing a large chunk of the
season with an injury. What can you tell us about Ayuk?
Speaker 2 (01:50):
Yeah, so he's going to start the season on pup.
It looks like that was kind of the expectation all along.
I wouldn't really consider that a setback. With most of
these injuries, he was projected to be about an eleven
month type return. His was more than just an ACL,
so ACL MCL combo takes a little bit longer to return.
The comments suggested somewhere around a week six target might
be realistic, and the data that we had projected him
(02:13):
from mid to late October, so that is fairly consistent.
The one thing to keep in mind with these types
of players coming back is wide receivers off the combo
ACL MCL usually take about a six game ramp up
to see their target volume get back to normal. So
with that in mind, we think he's in for potentially
a strong last third of the season, but the early
(02:34):
phase of his return maybe a little up and down,
and we're not really planning on using him ourselves in
most of those lineups.
Speaker 1 (02:40):
Yeah, that's you know when you talk about a delayed
start and then also a ramp up period once you
get back. You're basically at the Fantasy playoffs, all right,
which is hard to imagine sitting here in August, but
you know it does come quickly, so you know, discouraging
if you're counting on him in any kind of redraft format.
It's interesting because there are really multiple forty nine ers
that you could talk about. It feels like base the whole,
(03:00):
I mean, all the wide receivers like Juwan Jennings, although
you know who knows, so much of that is like
kind of a sort of a hold in, like with
some of the contract negotiating stuff, like Ricky Peter saw.
Obviously he started last year, you know with the chest
gunshot wound, so very different situation this year. You know,
obviously we don't even have him on the list to
talk about, but you know, everybody knows what happened with
Christian McCaffrey a year ago. Just it just seems like
(03:21):
all the forty nine ers are at least worth just
saying like, hey, you know, be aware of some injury stuff.
So the guys besides, can you weigh in on any
of them?
Speaker 2 (03:29):
Yeah, So Juwan Jennings is an interesting case. See, if
it is truly an injury, it's a reaggravated calf strain
and that initial aggravation dates all the way back to OTAs,
So those tend to carry a very high reinjury risk
in season for a wide receiver, and he's had a
lot of time to recover. But even still they're talking
about this potential IR, and it's very uncertain how much
(03:51):
of this is injury versus contracts. So with that in mind,
we would suspect not unlike McLaurin coming off of a
pulp right after his contract, that sort of thing. So
I wouldn't be surprised if that's the case. Most of
these reaggravated cast trains, within six weeks of rest, you
would start to see players at least try to ramp up.
So if they're still talking about IR and it truly
(04:11):
is an injury related concern, we wouldn't bank on Juwan
Jennings in really any capacity. And then you look at
Ricky Piersall. Now he had a hamstring injury that made
him start training camp on the inactive list, but he
very quickly came back from it. It doesn't look like
it's affected him at all during training camp and he's
been available the whole time. So with that in mind,
(04:33):
that would predict that he doesn't have any lingering risk
going into the season. So Ricky Pearsall, we would basically
fully send on nothing from last year really overly concerning,
and then this year really no reason to doubt him
so far.
Speaker 1 (04:47):
Piersaw is somebody that as a Fantasy Pro's team we
are going full send in terms of just the rankings
in general. So that's very good to hear because we
consider him to be one of the real key breakout
candidates for the season at wide receivers. So Clean Bill,
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Speaker 1 (06:22):
All right, next name here, And by the way, there's
that outside of putting the forty nine ers together, there's
not really a whole lot of rhyme or reason to
the order. Just kind of wrote out the names as
I had of here, so there's not like we're going
on position five, position or anything like that. The next
time I have readen down is Chris Godwin, who was
odd pace to be you know, wide receiver one in
fantasy early last season, was having a ridiculous season. Obviously
has another season ending injury. It's been interesting because they
(06:45):
gave him the contract early in the offseason, and that
seemed to most people, based on the terms of the contract,
to suggest that, hey, maybe the team says there's not
actually that much injury concern here. Then they go out
and draft a first round ride receiver who's looked really good.
Now there's you know, talk about Godwin like being on
popping everything so just kind of taking into all the
different factors that we've had over the last several months.
(07:06):
What's your analysis on Chris Godwin right now?
Speaker 2 (07:08):
Yeah, so super hard to bank on much here. So
the Chris Godwin most recent update just today is that
he passed his physical and they Todd Bowles announced week
two to five is roughly when he's expecting a return
for Godwin. But keep in mind that he hasn't even
practiced yet with the team, so there was some skepticism
that he's even been running yet. I think he probably
(07:30):
My guess is he has if he didn't make the
pup list. Now, with Chris Godwin's injury, he fractured and
dislocated his ankle. There's some torn ligaments as part of
that as well. Just the complex of that injury usually
creates a twelve month performance dip of up to about
twenty percent, but then that's with a single surgery and
(07:50):
a normal sort of postop recovery course. You have to
remember Chris Godwin had a second surgery, which means there
was some sort of complication and we don't know the
details of what was done at that secon and surgery,
but it kind of implies that you're going to push
his recovery timeline even further back. So, but his injury
was a week eight, so you would expect about week
eight for him to hit his ninety percent level if
(08:12):
you were looking at a smooth recovery course. Now you're
pushing that back. It's unclear to when, but my guess
is at least about a month in terms of you know,
if we're kind of being conservative with that estimate. So
with that in mind, I'm not really banking on Chris Godwin.
I think he will be out there. My guess is
more towards the later end of what Bolls suggested, probably
around that week five timeline. But in terms of him
(08:35):
being a high level or high volume contributor, I think
they're going to have to ramp him up, and I
think his efficiency very likely will dip as well.
Speaker 1 (08:44):
So that in you know, kind of along those lines
would suggest that it is probably a good idea. Another
receiver who has been moving up draft warts, similar to
Ricky Piersal is in mechag Buka, and that would sort
of go along with what you're saying here too, that
it is smart to feel like the Bucks are going
to rely on a GUKA early, he's gonna have this
real runway because not only will God would not be
on the field to start. When he is in the field,
(09:04):
we're expecting a bit of a delayed kind of wrap
up period again, so you know, arrow up for a
GUKA in that regard. Obviously you don't want to see
that due to an injury, but that is sort of
the fallout of it. One player who is basically not
even on my draft board. I'm curious to hear if
you agree with that. From the injury perspective, is Joe Mixon.
What are we doing with Mixon at this point?
Speaker 2 (09:25):
Yeah, Joe Mixon. There's a lot of concern that he
might not play at all this year, and it sounds
like he's been dealing with an injury since at least
May now you would think about most non operative injuries
three to four months and still not really any sign
of him practicing or healing. Is pretty doubtful in terms
of making a lot of progress over the next let's
(09:46):
say month or two, given that it's been this long already.
Reportedly he may have had a procedure that wasn't really
approved by the team, and there's some skepticism about maybe
it didn't work, and that's kind of the latest of
what we've been hearing. Again, none of this is verified
by the team. But at the same time, with Joe Mixon,
he's also had a severe foot in ankle history, even
(10:08):
as recently as last year, missing time with a bad
high inkal So, not really banking on much here, looking
very much at the committee approach for the Texans running
back room.
Speaker 1 (10:18):
Yeah, I mean, like I said, he's basically not even
on my draft board at this point given everything, and
just I will let say, if somebody else takes a
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(11:45):
of fantasy sports. Another kind of veteran running back here.
Nase Harris obviously had this stuff going on with the
I and the fireworks over the summer and fourth of July.
You know, a lot of people are really excited about
Amrion Hampton and see this as an opportunity for Hampton
to to really solidify his kind of grip on this backfield.
Harris is the type of player that Jim Harbaru really
(12:07):
does like. Though, So if he's on the field, I
am I'm so worried about him kind of eating into
those Hampson carries. What do we expect out of Harris
in terms of being on the field and being productive?
Speaker 2 (12:17):
Yeah, Najie Harris is They called him a superficial eye injury,
but it dates back to July fourth weekend and you're
now looking at about seven eight weeks later that he's
now cleared and returning to practice and that sort of thing.
So it looks like he's going to be playing Week one,
but obviously he's missed all the reps. So the question is, yes,
he's a veteran running back, maybe he just plugs right in.
(12:37):
It's more of a usage question, but I don't think
it's so much of an injury question, if that makes sense.
Most likely the only injury impact you're going to see
from this going forward is just him having missed training camp.
Speaker 1 (12:48):
Okay, one player who missed large chunks of training camp
Matthew Stafford. And I'm really curious to get your opinion
on this one for two reasons. One Stafford is a
real key to multiple fantasy players value, right, Like, we
need this offense to be good for Kyrin Williams Off'
scoring opportunities. We need the quarterback to be good for
guys like Pukunukua and DeVonta Adams to take advantage. I'm
also curious because it's been kind of an interesting journey.
(13:10):
Right he was on I don't even I'm not even
gonna pretend to remember what all that stuff was called,
but that like glass table thing with his back like that,
they had the like airstream looking. You can tell I'm
not I have no medical background here talking about this,
But what do you make of just everything that's been
going on with Stafford? And you know, a guy, he's older,
there's you know, everybody always makes a joke like nobody
used to have a bad back. It's just something you
(13:31):
deal with. So, like, are you nervous about Stafford from
a fantasy perspective.
Speaker 2 (13:35):
Yeah, very to be honest. So I do think he's
going to start Week one. He's probably gonna look pretty
good when he's healthy. The issue with him is going
to be managing this back injury. All season long. He's
been having epidural shots. That implies to me he probably
had some sort of disc herniation and those discs can
slip out and basically pinch on nerves. And Matthew Stafford's tough,
(13:55):
but it's almost impossible to play through that level of pain.
Nerve pain is extremely severe in a lot of cases.
So the issue is if he's being managed with these injections,
would a bad hit or a bad trunk rotation when
he's throwing lead to him reaggravating this very possibly? Yes,
So I have been avoiding the rams wide receivers as
(14:17):
much as tempting as it is, but the reason just being,
even though I expect Stafford to start healthy, there's going
to be a super high reaggravation risk all season long
wide receiver.
Speaker 1 (14:27):
I want to ask you about Jaden Reid. What do
you have for us here?
Speaker 2 (14:30):
Yeah, Jayden Reid actually just returned to practice today, so
he was seen in a boot As recently as two
weeks ago. They were calling it a foot sprain, and
most likely the most common thing here would be a
midfoot area sprain. Given that it took him about six
weeks to get back in the game. With that in mind,
you would think that Jaden Reid, having returned to practice today,
(14:52):
would probably be a full participant by the time next
week rolls around. In the lead up to Week one,
so I would think he played. I don't think he
has a lot of restriction, but there is some concern
that this may have some effect on how much they
use him early on, just because, like I said, two
weeks ago, he was in a boot and looked like
he was even limping in some videos that were circulating online.
(15:15):
So today he looked pretty sharp from the brief highlights
that we've seen, and I do think he's going to
play Week one without major dip.
Speaker 1 (15:23):
I'm interested to see what the usage is for him,
because I feel like I've been maybe too low on
Matthew Golden for a lot of the summer, and if
Reid is like at all rusty or limited just in
any capacity, then that just you know, gives even more
of an opening for their first round pick at receiver
to take advantage early on in the season. How about
Devon Chan Obviously one of the biggest names that we're
(15:44):
talking about just in terms of like when healthy, where
they're going. They you know, AREB eight in real time ADP,
which is available on Fantasy pros and now to kind
of see where these guys are are really actually going,
not just from year long ADP, but from the last
twenty four hours and then also the last seven days,
you can see those trends. He's RB eight, but he's
down to about seventeenth overall. That is definitely lower than
(16:05):
when he was going kind of early on before more
this injury stuff crapped up. One of the reasons that
I've been a little wary of a Chan in previous
drafts is because it's multiple guys need to say healthy, right,
it's him and Tua needs to be healthy for a
Chan to be really effective, and that just scares me.
Kind of having an extra person involved that you're worried about,
but just thinking about a chance specifically, is any injury
(16:28):
stuff with him enough that you think he should be
kind of following far out of the first round or
if you want to take the big upside swing on
him regardless, do you think it's worth investing in that.
Speaker 2 (16:37):
Yeah, I think he's worth investing in. I probably wouldn't
take him as my first pick, but as a second
rounder I think is very reasonable. The issue with a
Chan is that he had a cap strain. We never
really know the severity of these things until the player
returns to practice, because that we find is the only
real objective indicator. The teams are at a little bit
of disincentive to tell us the truth. They don't have
(16:59):
to poor any of the preseason injuries. Honestly, and with
a Chan, the question is he's an explosive player. There
is going to be a reaggravation risk with the calf. Now,
if he does return next week to practice, which is
what we're projecting, what all the comments have suggested so far,
then that would have him at two weeks out in
about a ten percent re injury risk, which is relatively
(17:21):
low but not zero. The real concern here is if
they are misleading us, and you may remember Christian McCaffrey's
suppose a calf injury last year in this time, if
they are misleading us, we won't find out until last minute,
and we will likely see an extended absence. But in
the absence of an aggravation, you would generally see a
(17:43):
CHAN progress on. And the GM just came out today
saying he's going to play Week one, so would that
in mind we expect him to return to practice next
week and probably not have a huge reaggravation risk given
that this was likely a mild injury.
Speaker 1 (17:57):
How about another big name running back here, Kenneth Walker,
who is going a couple rounds later than a chan
Is And you know, we've talked on the show that
the upside is as significant as almost anybody in fantasy.
But for me, like I'm not worried about usage, I'm
not worried about I think I'm worried about these like
kind of nagging injuries that have continued to crop up
for Walker over the years. You know, always feels like
(18:17):
he's on the practice report, like injury designation as like
some kind of foot injury or something. Obviously he's dealt
with some of that here in August. So going into
draft day, are you willing to draft Kenneth Walker despite
the kind of litneay of injury reports and everything that
have added up over the years.
Speaker 2 (18:33):
Yeah, it's a good question. He's he's been on the
injury report a lot. Now, with that being said, he's
somewhat of a value where he's going compared to what
his role is projected to be. And if you also
look at his overall history, he hasn't missed that many
more games than the average running back. The one thing
this year that does kind of stand out. Yes, he
has a prior soft tissue history with recurrent kind of
(18:55):
core abdomen growing type injuries, and that does raise his
risk at touch over their average running back. But this year,
the question in my eyes is why hasn't he been
practicing that consistently. They've called it foot soreness, which suggests
overall not a high concern and not any like major
structural damage that's going to keep him out, and he
has been intimittently practicing and reportedly looking good. But given
(19:17):
that Zach Sharbonay is as talented as he is, he's
the second round running back, always been efficient when he's
out there, and he's been getting all these rave reviews,
I would think that Kenneth Walker, if he were truly
fully healthy, would have priority in terms of being out
there to compete with Sharbonay and to keep him as
the backup rather than split that load. So that's the
(19:40):
one concern with Kenneth Walker. I do think that foot
soreness maybe a little more serious than they're letting on.
But with that being said, you know the history itself
not highly highly concerning just because he is a running
back and wear and tearor is actually quite common with
these guys.
Speaker 1 (19:53):
Let's look at another backfield with kind of a possibility
for split carries at least when guys are healthy. That's
the Titans. Taja Spears a popular sleeper for a lot
of people early on in draft season. Of course, now
he has his injury stuff that is going to believe
keep about for a certain number of weeks. Here is
it going to be long enough that you would say
that you should bump up a guy like Tony Pollard
in your rankings, And we're worried about the effectiveness of
(20:15):
Spears when he comes back from the ankle issue.
Speaker 2 (20:17):
Yeah, I would. I would bump up Tony Pollard. And
the other aspect to it is that Taji Spears, so
he's going to miss the first four games, that's official.
But when he comes back, even if he comes back
week five, given the timeline, we know it's a severe
high ankle. So most players don't come back right away.
As their pre injury cells, they usually have about a
twenty percent dip in their performance, and with the severe
(20:41):
high ankles, usually a twenty twenty five percent reinjury risk
in season, So all of those numbers are pretty high.
The other aspect to it is usually you'll see a
ramp up in their touches while the other running backs
on the team, whether that's Pollard or someone else, get
more of the workload in the interim.
Speaker 1 (20:58):
So I do.
Speaker 2 (20:59):
I do think Tony Poler deserves a bump up and
tyj Spears very hard to justify drafting at this point, you.
Speaker 1 (21:05):
Know, I have to squeeze in a raven here with
you on. I'm not going to ask about Lamar Jackson's
foot getting stepped on because that seems to be a
non issue. I am not stressing about it. I want
that clear and on the record. But I do want
to ask about Isaiah Likely because I was really expecting
big things from Likely this season. I still am to
a degree, but like I went into this offseason saying, like,
I think he explodes this year. I think if Mark
(21:25):
andrews Ever misses any time, Likely is going to be
like a top three tight end in fantasy. Like that
is so strongly I feel about his talent and his
fit in this offense. And then he breaks a bone
in his foot and as somebody who's currently dealing with
a small fracture in my foot who is not a
professional athlete, I can relate to, how you know, frustrating
and difficult to comp to navigate that. So when you
(21:47):
look at somebody like likely, I believe they said he's
not going on IR, so they do expect him back
early in the season. But in terms of effectiveness, is
there like a point in time where we would think
he gets back to one hundred percent and maybe he's
taking so that workload away from Mark Andrews? Is that
sooner rather than later? What do we make of the
broken foot?
Speaker 2 (22:05):
Yeah, so the most common injury here is going to
be a Jones fracture, and assuming that is kind of
the most likely, the average on these, even though six
weeks as possible, the average is eight. Six weeks would
have put him back for about week one. Now eight
weeks puts him closer to week three. He is reportedly
not going to be on the IR of the pups,
so therefore has a good chance of coming back in
(22:26):
the first four weeks, and our data was always projecting
him week two to four as most likely. The real
question though, is, as you said, performance and typically players
do take about a month in terms of pass catching
production to get back to where they were before, so
I think he comes back. The data says to weight
three is the most likely here, and then after that
(22:47):
you see of three to four game ramp up in
terms of his efficiency, production and volume. And then yes,
he could depending on how they decide to use him
very much look like his old self.
Speaker 1 (23:00):
Andrew's currently real time ADP is tight end seven about
the seventy first overall pick. So if someone to keep
in mind with likely, you know, given where he's at
in his recovery, that Andrews is going kind of in
that tier two like middle class or so of tight end.
If you are worry about injuries, this is a good
episode to listen to. If you're worrying about making your
lineups and optimizing them, let Autopilot help. Autopilot can manage
(23:23):
your fantasy football lineup automatically so you never have to
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subscribers at Fantasypros dot com slash my Playbook or on
(23:45):
the Fantasy Pros app. Try Premium for free right now
by claiming your three day trial a Fantasy Pros Premium
at Fantasypros dot com slash Premium. We'll go ahead and
wrap things up there. Got through a lot of names
for you for doctor Deepak Shonna, I'm Ryan warmly thanks
everybody for tuning in. Good luck Buck your final drafts
this weekend. We'll see you next time. Thanks for listening
to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football podcast. If you love
(24:06):
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YouTube channel at YouTube dot com slash Fantasy Pros
Hello, everybody, Welcome into Fantasy Pros. I'm Ran Warmley, joined
by my friend doctor Deepak Chow and he is sport
MD analysis. We have done many shows together over the years,
some live shows, some pre recorded. I believe last year
you and I did the same thing we're going to
do today, which is a bit of a season preview
from an injury perspective, sort of a short form video
where we hit on about a dozen or so names. Here.
(00:22):
Just give folks who are drafting this weekend, because as
we talked about before we started recording, it is the
biggest draft weekend of the year. Give them some last
minuted injury insights from an actual doctor here about what
to expect from maybe some of these recovery timelines. A
lot of the stuff that you do is really backed
by data and kind of the science behind this, So
you obviously come to this with a lot of expertise
in terms of, you know, evaluating these injuries as best
(00:45):
we can from afar and seeing what's going to happen.
Is that sound like a good plan here?
Speaker 2 (00:49):
Yeah, that sounds great. Appreciate that and let's get it.
Let's get it rolling.
Speaker 1 (00:53):
I will remind everybody that all of our twenty twenty
five consensus rankings and tiers can be found at Fantasypros
dot com slash rankings. And also I do just want
to take a moment to kind of thank the audience
as we're sort of wrapping up our off season coverage,
obviously not wrapping up Fantasy Pros, you know stuff in
general we have with the whole lot coming your way
in season, but sort of wrapping up the off season
part of the programming. Just thanks everybody for listening throughout
the summer, and you know, the best way to support
(01:15):
the show is by leaving a review and make it
an honest one. If you have feedback, we want to
hear it. But by leaving a review at Fantasypros dot
com slash review and by rating the show wherever it
is that you're listening to your podcast. So we really
appreciate the feedback. It helps to grow the show and
also make it better. We want to make the show
kind of our best foot forward as best as we
possibly can, so I wanted to get that out of
the way. Let's dive into some injuries to know before
(01:36):
your drafts. I want to start kind of with the
forty nine ers in general. Brandon Ayuk somebody who obviously
he's got it delayed start to his season last year
with you know, some of the hold out stuff, and
then he ends up missing a large chunk of the
season with an injury. What can you tell us about Ayuk?
Speaker 2 (01:50):
Yeah, so he's going to start the season on pup.
It looks like that was kind of the expectation all along.
I wouldn't really consider that a setback. With most of
these injuries, he was projected to be about an eleven
month type return. His was more than just an ACL,
so ACL MCL combo takes a little bit longer to return.
The comments suggested somewhere around a week six target might
be realistic, and the data that we had projected him
(02:13):
from mid to late October, so that is fairly consistent.
The one thing to keep in mind with these types
of players coming back is wide receivers off the combo
ACL MCL usually take about a six game ramp up
to see their target volume get back to normal. So
with that in mind, we think he's in for potentially
a strong last third of the season, but the early
(02:34):
phase of his return maybe a little up and down,
and we're not really planning on using him ourselves in
most of those lineups.
Speaker 1 (02:40):
Yeah, that's you know when you talk about a delayed
start and then also a ramp up period once you
get back. You're basically at the Fantasy playoffs, all right,
which is hard to imagine sitting here in August, but
you know it does come quickly, so you know, discouraging
if you're counting on him in any kind of redraft format.
It's interesting because there are really multiple forty nine ers
that you could talk about. It feels like base the whole,
(03:00):
I mean, all the wide receivers like Juwan Jennings, although
you know who knows, so much of that is like
kind of a sort of a hold in, like with
some of the contract negotiating stuff, like Ricky Peter saw.
Obviously he started last year, you know with the chest
gunshot wound, so very different situation this year. You know,
obviously we don't even have him on the list to
talk about, but you know, everybody knows what happened with
Christian McCaffrey a year ago. Just it just seems like
(03:21):
all the forty nine ers are at least worth just
saying like, hey, you know, be aware of some injury stuff.
So the guys besides, can you weigh in on any
of them?
Speaker 2 (03:29):
Yeah, So Juwan Jennings is an interesting case. See, if
it is truly an injury, it's a reaggravated calf strain
and that initial aggravation dates all the way back to OTAs,
So those tend to carry a very high reinjury risk
in season for a wide receiver, and he's had a
lot of time to recover. But even still they're talking
about this potential IR, and it's very uncertain how much
(03:51):
of this is injury versus contracts. So with that in mind,
we would suspect not unlike McLaurin coming off of a
pulp right after his contract, that sort of thing. So
I wouldn't be surprised if that's the case. Most of
these reaggravated cast trains, within six weeks of rest, you
would start to see players at least try to ramp up.
So if they're still talking about IR and it truly
(04:11):
is an injury related concern, we wouldn't bank on Juwan
Jennings in really any capacity. And then you look at
Ricky Piersall. Now he had a hamstring injury that made
him start training camp on the inactive list, but he
very quickly came back from it. It doesn't look like
it's affected him at all during training camp and he's
been available the whole time. So with that in mind,
(04:33):
that would predict that he doesn't have any lingering risk
going into the season. So Ricky Pearsall, we would basically
fully send on nothing from last year really overly concerning,
and then this year really no reason to doubt him
so far.
Speaker 1 (04:47):
Piersaw is somebody that as a Fantasy Pro's team we
are going full send in terms of just the rankings
in general. So that's very good to hear because we
consider him to be one of the real key breakout
candidates for the season at wide receivers. So Clean Bill,
we'll certainly go a long way towards that. I want
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Speaker 1 (06:22):
All right, next name here, And by the way, there's
that outside of putting the forty nine ers together, there's
not really a whole lot of rhyme or reason to
the order. Just kind of wrote out the names as
I had of here, so there's not like we're going
on position five, position or anything like that. The next
time I have readen down is Chris Godwin, who was
odd pace to be you know, wide receiver one in
fantasy early last season, was having a ridiculous season. Obviously
has another season ending injury. It's been interesting because they
(06:45):
gave him the contract early in the offseason, and that
seemed to most people, based on the terms of the contract,
to suggest that, hey, maybe the team says there's not
actually that much injury concern here. Then they go out
and draft a first round ride receiver who's looked really good.
Now there's you know, talk about Godwin like being on
popping everything so just kind of taking into all the
different factors that we've had over the last several months.
(07:06):
What's your analysis on Chris Godwin right now?
Speaker 2 (07:08):
Yeah, so super hard to bank on much here. So
the Chris Godwin most recent update just today is that
he passed his physical and they Todd Bowles announced week
two to five is roughly when he's expecting a return
for Godwin. But keep in mind that he hasn't even
practiced yet with the team, so there was some skepticism
that he's even been running yet. I think he probably
(07:30):
My guess is he has if he didn't make the
pup list. Now, with Chris Godwin's injury, he fractured and
dislocated his ankle. There's some torn ligaments as part of
that as well. Just the complex of that injury usually
creates a twelve month performance dip of up to about
twenty percent, but then that's with a single surgery and
(07:50):
a normal sort of postop recovery course. You have to
remember Chris Godwin had a second surgery, which means there
was some sort of complication and we don't know the
details of what was done at that secon and surgery,
but it kind of implies that you're going to push
his recovery timeline even further back. So, but his injury
was a week eight, so you would expect about week
eight for him to hit his ninety percent level if
(08:12):
you were looking at a smooth recovery course. Now you're
pushing that back. It's unclear to when, but my guess
is at least about a month in terms of you know,
if we're kind of being conservative with that estimate. So
with that in mind, I'm not really banking on Chris Godwin.
I think he will be out there. My guess is
more towards the later end of what Bolls suggested, probably
around that week five timeline. But in terms of him
(08:35):
being a high level or high volume contributor, I think
they're going to have to ramp him up, and I
think his efficiency very likely will dip as well.
Speaker 1 (08:44):
So that in you know, kind of along those lines
would suggest that it is probably a good idea. Another
receiver who has been moving up draft warts, similar to
Ricky Piersal is in mechag Buka, and that would sort
of go along with what you're saying here too, that
it is smart to feel like the Bucks are going
to rely on a GUKA early, he's gonna have this
real runway because not only will God would not be
on the field to start. When he is in the field,
(09:04):
we're expecting a bit of a delayed kind of wrap
up period again, so you know, arrow up for a
GUKA in that regard. Obviously you don't want to see
that due to an injury, but that is sort of
the fallout of it. One player who is basically not
even on my draft board. I'm curious to hear if
you agree with that. From the injury perspective, is Joe Mixon.
What are we doing with Mixon at this point?
Speaker 2 (09:25):
Yeah, Joe Mixon. There's a lot of concern that he
might not play at all this year, and it sounds
like he's been dealing with an injury since at least
May now you would think about most non operative injuries
three to four months and still not really any sign
of him practicing or healing. Is pretty doubtful in terms
of making a lot of progress over the next let's
(09:46):
say month or two, given that it's been this long already.
Reportedly he may have had a procedure that wasn't really
approved by the team, and there's some skepticism about maybe
it didn't work, and that's kind of the latest of
what we've been hearing. Again, none of this is verified
by the team. But at the same time, with Joe Mixon,
he's also had a severe foot in ankle history, even
(10:08):
as recently as last year, missing time with a bad
high inkal So, not really banking on much here, looking
very much at the committee approach for the Texans running
back room.
Speaker 1 (10:18):
Yeah, I mean, like I said, he's basically not even
on my draft board at this point given everything, and
just I will let say, if somebody else takes a
huge risk and it pans out good for them, it
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(11:45):
of fantasy sports. Another kind of veteran running back here.
Nase Harris obviously had this stuff going on with the
I and the fireworks over the summer and fourth of July.
You know, a lot of people are really excited about
Amrion Hampton and see this as an opportunity for Hampton
to to really solidify his kind of grip on this backfield.
Harris is the type of player that Jim Harbaru really
(12:07):
does like. Though, So if he's on the field, I
am I'm so worried about him kind of eating into
those Hampson carries. What do we expect out of Harris
in terms of being on the field and being productive?
Speaker 2 (12:17):
Yeah, Najie Harris is They called him a superficial eye injury,
but it dates back to July fourth weekend and you're
now looking at about seven eight weeks later that he's
now cleared and returning to practice and that sort of thing.
So it looks like he's going to be playing Week one,
but obviously he's missed all the reps. So the question is, yes,
he's a veteran running back, maybe he just plugs right in.
(12:37):
It's more of a usage question, but I don't think
it's so much of an injury question, if that makes sense.
Most likely the only injury impact you're going to see
from this going forward is just him having missed training camp.
Speaker 1 (12:48):
Okay, one player who missed large chunks of training camp
Matthew Stafford. And I'm really curious to get your opinion
on this one for two reasons. One Stafford is a
real key to multiple fantasy players value, right, Like, we
need this offense to be good for Kyrin Williams Off'
scoring opportunities. We need the quarterback to be good for
guys like Pukunukua and DeVonta Adams to take advantage. I'm
also curious because it's been kind of an interesting journey.
(13:10):
Right he was on I don't even I'm not even
gonna pretend to remember what all that stuff was called,
but that like glass table thing with his back like that,
they had the like airstream looking. You can tell I'm
not I have no medical background here talking about this,
But what do you make of just everything that's been
going on with Stafford? And you know, a guy, he's older,
there's you know, everybody always makes a joke like nobody
used to have a bad back. It's just something you
(13:31):
deal with. So, like, are you nervous about Stafford from
a fantasy perspective.
Speaker 2 (13:35):
Yeah, very to be honest. So I do think he's
going to start Week one. He's probably gonna look pretty
good when he's healthy. The issue with him is going
to be managing this back injury. All season long. He's
been having epidural shots. That implies to me he probably
had some sort of disc herniation and those discs can
slip out and basically pinch on nerves. And Matthew Stafford's tough,
(13:55):
but it's almost impossible to play through that level of pain.
Nerve pain is extremely severe in a lot of cases.
So the issue is if he's being managed with these injections,
would a bad hit or a bad trunk rotation when
he's throwing lead to him reaggravating this very possibly? Yes,
So I have been avoiding the rams wide receivers as
(14:17):
much as tempting as it is, but the reason just being,
even though I expect Stafford to start healthy, there's going
to be a super high reaggravation risk all season long
wide receiver.
Speaker 1 (14:27):
I want to ask you about Jaden Reid. What do
you have for us here?
Speaker 2 (14:30):
Yeah, Jayden Reid actually just returned to practice today, so
he was seen in a boot As recently as two
weeks ago. They were calling it a foot sprain, and
most likely the most common thing here would be a
midfoot area sprain. Given that it took him about six
weeks to get back in the game. With that in mind,
you would think that Jaden Reid, having returned to practice today,
(14:52):
would probably be a full participant by the time next
week rolls around. In the lead up to Week one,
so I would think he played. I don't think he
has a lot of restriction, but there is some concern
that this may have some effect on how much they
use him early on, just because, like I said, two
weeks ago, he was in a boot and looked like
he was even limping in some videos that were circulating online.
(15:15):
So today he looked pretty sharp from the brief highlights
that we've seen, and I do think he's going to
play Week one without major dip.
Speaker 1 (15:23):
I'm interested to see what the usage is for him,
because I feel like I've been maybe too low on
Matthew Golden for a lot of the summer, and if
Reid is like at all rusty or limited just in
any capacity, then that just you know, gives even more
of an opening for their first round pick at receiver
to take advantage early on in the season. How about
Devon Chan Obviously one of the biggest names that we're
(15:44):
talking about just in terms of like when healthy, where
they're going. They you know, AREB eight in real time ADP,
which is available on Fantasy pros and now to kind
of see where these guys are are really actually going,
not just from year long ADP, but from the last
twenty four hours and then also the last seven days,
you can see those trends. He's RB eight, but he's
down to about seventeenth overall. That is definitely lower than
(16:05):
when he was going kind of early on before more
this injury stuff crapped up. One of the reasons that
I've been a little wary of a Chan in previous
drafts is because it's multiple guys need to say healthy, right,
it's him and Tua needs to be healthy for a
Chan to be really effective, and that just scares me.
Kind of having an extra person involved that you're worried about,
but just thinking about a chance specifically, is any injury
(16:28):
stuff with him enough that you think he should be
kind of following far out of the first round or
if you want to take the big upside swing on
him regardless, do you think it's worth investing in that.
Speaker 2 (16:37):
Yeah, I think he's worth investing in. I probably wouldn't
take him as my first pick, but as a second
rounder I think is very reasonable. The issue with a
Chan is that he had a cap strain. We never
really know the severity of these things until the player
returns to practice, because that we find is the only
real objective indicator. The teams are at a little bit
of disincentive to tell us the truth. They don't have
(16:59):
to poor any of the preseason injuries. Honestly, and with
a Chan, the question is he's an explosive player. There
is going to be a reaggravation risk with the calf. Now,
if he does return next week to practice, which is
what we're projecting, what all the comments have suggested so far,
then that would have him at two weeks out in
about a ten percent re injury risk, which is relatively
(17:21):
low but not zero. The real concern here is if
they are misleading us, and you may remember Christian McCaffrey's
suppose a calf injury last year in this time, if
they are misleading us, we won't find out until last minute,
and we will likely see an extended absence. But in
the absence of an aggravation, you would generally see a
(17:43):
CHAN progress on. And the GM just came out today
saying he's going to play Week one, so would that
in mind we expect him to return to practice next
week and probably not have a huge reaggravation risk given
that this was likely a mild injury.
Speaker 1 (17:57):
How about another big name running back here, Kenneth Walker,
who is going a couple rounds later than a chan
Is And you know, we've talked on the show that
the upside is as significant as almost anybody in fantasy.
But for me, like I'm not worried about usage, I'm
not worried about I think I'm worried about these like
kind of nagging injuries that have continued to crop up
for Walker over the years. You know, always feels like
(18:17):
he's on the practice report, like injury designation as like
some kind of foot injury or something. Obviously he's dealt
with some of that here in August. So going into
draft day, are you willing to draft Kenneth Walker despite
the kind of litneay of injury reports and everything that
have added up over the years.
Speaker 2 (18:33):
Yeah, it's a good question. He's he's been on the
injury report a lot. Now, with that being said, he's
somewhat of a value where he's going compared to what
his role is projected to be. And if you also
look at his overall history, he hasn't missed that many
more games than the average running back. The one thing
this year that does kind of stand out. Yes, he
has a prior soft tissue history with recurrent kind of
(18:55):
core abdomen growing type injuries, and that does raise his
risk at touch over their average running back. But this year,
the question in my eyes is why hasn't he been
practicing that consistently. They've called it foot soreness, which suggests
overall not a high concern and not any like major
structural damage that's going to keep him out, and he
has been intimittently practicing and reportedly looking good. But given
(19:17):
that Zach Sharbonay is as talented as he is, he's
the second round running back, always been efficient when he's
out there, and he's been getting all these rave reviews,
I would think that Kenneth Walker, if he were truly
fully healthy, would have priority in terms of being out
there to compete with Sharbonay and to keep him as
the backup rather than split that load. So that's the
(19:40):
one concern with Kenneth Walker. I do think that foot
soreness maybe a little more serious than they're letting on.
But with that being said, you know the history itself
not highly highly concerning just because he is a running
back and wear and tearor is actually quite common with
these guys.
Speaker 1 (19:53):
Let's look at another backfield with kind of a possibility
for split carries at least when guys are healthy. That's
the Titans. Taja Spears a popular sleeper for a lot
of people early on in draft season. Of course, now
he has his injury stuff that is going to believe
keep about for a certain number of weeks. Here is
it going to be long enough that you would say
that you should bump up a guy like Tony Pollard
in your rankings, And we're worried about the effectiveness of
(20:15):
Spears when he comes back from the ankle issue.
Speaker 2 (20:17):
Yeah, I would. I would bump up Tony Pollard. And
the other aspect to it is that Taji Spears, so
he's going to miss the first four games, that's official.
But when he comes back, even if he comes back
week five, given the timeline, we know it's a severe
high ankle. So most players don't come back right away.
As their pre injury cells, they usually have about a
twenty percent dip in their performance, and with the severe
(20:41):
high ankles, usually a twenty twenty five percent reinjury risk
in season, So all of those numbers are pretty high.
The other aspect to it is usually you'll see a
ramp up in their touches while the other running backs
on the team, whether that's Pollard or someone else, get
more of the workload in the interim.
Speaker 1 (20:58):
So I do.
Speaker 2 (20:59):
I do think Tony Poler deserves a bump up and
tyj Spears very hard to justify drafting at this point, you.
Speaker 1 (21:05):
Know, I have to squeeze in a raven here with
you on. I'm not going to ask about Lamar Jackson's
foot getting stepped on because that seems to be a
non issue. I am not stressing about it. I want
that clear and on the record. But I do want
to ask about Isaiah Likely because I was really expecting
big things from Likely this season. I still am to
a degree, but like I went into this offseason saying, like,
I think he explodes this year. I think if Mark
(21:25):
andrews Ever misses any time, Likely is going to be
like a top three tight end in fantasy. Like that
is so strongly I feel about his talent and his
fit in this offense. And then he breaks a bone
in his foot and as somebody who's currently dealing with
a small fracture in my foot who is not a
professional athlete, I can relate to, how you know, frustrating
and difficult to comp to navigate that. So when you
(21:47):
look at somebody like likely, I believe they said he's
not going on IR, so they do expect him back
early in the season. But in terms of effectiveness, is
there like a point in time where we would think
he gets back to one hundred percent and maybe he's
taking so that workload away from Mark Andrews? Is that
sooner rather than later? What do we make of the
broken foot?
Speaker 2 (22:05):
Yeah, so the most common injury here is going to
be a Jones fracture, and assuming that is kind of
the most likely, the average on these, even though six
weeks as possible, the average is eight. Six weeks would
have put him back for about week one. Now eight
weeks puts him closer to week three. He is reportedly
not going to be on the IR of the pups,
so therefore has a good chance of coming back in
(22:26):
the first four weeks, and our data was always projecting
him week two to four as most likely. The real
question though, is, as you said, performance and typically players
do take about a month in terms of pass catching
production to get back to where they were before, so
I think he comes back. The data says to weight
three is the most likely here, and then after that
(22:47):
you see of three to four game ramp up in
terms of his efficiency, production and volume. And then yes,
he could depending on how they decide to use him
very much look like his old self.
Speaker 1 (23:00):
Andrew's currently real time ADP is tight end seven about
the seventy first overall pick. So if someone to keep
in mind with likely, you know, given where he's at
in his recovery, that Andrews is going kind of in
that tier two like middle class or so of tight end.
If you are worry about injuries, this is a good
episode to listen to. If you're worrying about making your
lineups and optimizing them, let Autopilot help. Autopilot can manage
(23:23):
your fantasy football lineup automatically so you never have to
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(23:45):
the Fantasy Pros app. Try Premium for free right now
by claiming your three day trial a Fantasy Pros Premium
at Fantasypros dot com slash Premium. We'll go ahead and
wrap things up there. Got through a lot of names
for you for doctor Deepak Shonna, I'm Ryan warmly thanks
everybody for tuning in. Good luck Buck your final drafts
this weekend. We'll see you next time. Thanks for listening
to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football podcast. If you love
(24:06):
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Ryan Wormeli
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