Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Hello everybody, Welcome into the Fantasy Pros Football podcast. This
is a short form video. I have Ryan Warmly joined
by Pat fitz Morris, and this episode is all about
Fits because we are talking about his favorite early round picks.
There's no fluff in this episode. We're going to dive
right in and just hit on these guys. They are
the cornerstone of your fantasy team, the foundation from which
(00:20):
your fantasy championship will be born, these first five round picks.
Fits has picked one player in each round that is
his favorite. Actually, I don't know, did you do Fits
where these five together is the way you'd like to
start your team? Was there strategy in that? Or is
it just in a vacuum? These are your favorite picks
in each round, regardless of what you did the round before.
Speaker 2 (00:38):
Sort of in a vacuum. And I wanted accessibility to
be part of it because if I named Jamar Chase's
my favorite first round pick, well maybe only one player
in each league gets a shot at Jamar Chase, so
that factors into it a little bit too.
Speaker 1 (00:51):
Sure, so accessible picks in the first five rounds. Let's
start off right at the very top. In round number one,
you obviously did not go Chase because he's less accessible.
Where did you go with this? Yeah?
Speaker 2 (01:00):
I went with Ashton genty. He has an ECR of
RB four and a half point PPR number eleven overall.
I too have genty RB four, but I have him
ranked sixth overall. I would rather have genty than all
of the late first round wide receivers, guys like Puka Nakua,
i'm and Ross Saint Brown, Molik Neighbors, Brian Thomas, Junior
Nico Collins. Yeah, so I would rather have Jamar Chase
(01:22):
or b Jehn Robinson, but you would need a top
two or top three pick to have a chance at
those guys, so jeny. When there are running backs who
go top twelve overall in recent NFL drafts, the results
have been pretty good. There have been six drafted top
twelve in the last ten years, Bijon Robinson and Jamior
Gibbs in twenty twenty three, Sae Kwon Barkley in twenty eighteen,
(01:45):
Christian McCaffrey and Leonard Fournett in twenty seventeen, and Ezekiel
Elliott in twenty sixteen. That's a pretty good group and
for the most part, these guys have hit the ground
running in year one, and Genty's profile as a pro
is just so good. The dude just checks every box.
Speed check, vision check, ability to handle big workloads check,
(02:06):
pass catching check, and the contact balance is just special.
It is so hard to knock ash and Genty off
his feet. You just need a wrecking ball to do it.
And maybe people aren't thrilled. And he went to the Raiders.
That was kind of the case last year with brock Powers,
and we got a pretty great buying opportunity out of that.
Jenty goes to a team where his top back up,
his thirty three year old Raheem mosterts. No matter what
(02:30):
Pete Carroll says about how he's going to use multiple
backs like Jenny is going to be a workhorse. Pete
Carroll is going to be seventy four this season. He
is in his golden years as a head coach. Do
we think he is going to pull back the reins
on a truly special young running back like Marshaun Lynch
had three straight years of three hundred excuse me, four
straight years of three hundred plus touches when he was
(02:52):
playing for Pete Carroll in Seattle also Raiders. Offensive coordinator
Chip Kelly likes to run his offenses at a feast pace.
When he was coach of the Eagles for three years,
they were twelve first and second in offensive plays per game.
Chip Kelly's first year in Philly, Lashawn McCoy led the
league in carries with three hundred and fourteen and in
(03:12):
rushing yards with sixteen hundred and seven. The next year,
McCoy had three hundred and twelve carries for thirteen hundred
and nineteen yards. Genty is going to get a lot
of touches this year, and there's every reason to think
he's going to be highly effective on a per touch basis.
So I can understand the reluctance to spend a first
round pick on a player who hasn't taken an NFL
snap yet. But genty is just a treasure chest.
Speaker 1 (03:34):
Yeah. I don't really understand anybody negative on the landing
spot like Gino Smith. I think raises the floor of
this offense a lot. They have a top three tight end,
they have a couple of receivers that I at least like,
even if they're not, you know, mega superstars, and a
coaching staff that I think will use genty a lot
of This is a great landing spot in my opinion,
and I fully expecting to be a great pick. The
(03:55):
more I think about the first round, the more I
want to be picking late in the first and I
just want to get one running back and one receiver
of you know that gent Derrick Henry, Christian McCaffrey, Devon
Achien group and then that you know neighbors Nico Collins,
Brian Thomas Junior, Drake London. Like like, You're not all
those guys are not gonna be available at both picks,
of course, but I think you're picking late on the
(04:15):
turn you can maybe swing to those guys. That to
me feels like my favorite strategy early in draftsless year,
Let's get into your second round pick, which includes one
of those guys I just mentioned.
Speaker 2 (04:25):
Yeah, remember how uneasy we were with the second round
options last year? Worm Like, the second round this year
looks so much better and a lot of good options,
And I think my favorite second round option is Drake London. Now,
London's VCR is wide receiver nine sixteen overall. I also
have a wide receiver nine, but I'm willing to take
him thirteenth overall, I think London could leap frog a
(04:47):
bunch of the guys being drafted in front of him
as late first round picks. London had career best numbers
across the board last year in his third NFL season
one hundred catches, one two hundred and seventy one yards,
nine touchdown. He had one hundred and fifty eight targets.
Only Jamar Chase and Malik Nighbors had more targets than
Drake London last year. Michael PENNOCKX Junior takes over as
(05:10):
Atlanta's full time starter at quarterback this year. I think
he's a big time upgrade over Kirk Cousins. Penix just
has a world of arm talents and Penis In London
had real nice chemistry. When Penix made three late season
starts last year, London had twenty two catches for three
hundred and fifty two yards and two touchdowns on thirty
(05:30):
nine targets in those three games. I talked about Ashton
genty particular potentially benefiting from a fast offensive pace with
the Raiders. The Falcons also go at a fast pace
under Zach Robinson, their offensive coordinator. Atlanta's offense was fourth
in neutral pace last year. So London is six to four.
(05:51):
He's got this huge wingspan and great hands. He looks
like the air to Mike Evans as the king sized
win at the catch point alpha receiver who relied piably
puts up big numbers a year after year after year.
Speaker 1 (06:03):
We just released it earlier this week. Fits our accuracy
rankings from last year's draft rankings at Fantasy Pros and everybody,
I would encourage you to go to check those out see
how your favorite experts did from across the industry. Shouts
to Andrew Erickson, our colleague, who was top five and
Mike Maher who was top ten. Fantasy Pros as a
team will do very well in that league if Drake
(06:25):
London as well, because everybody here is very high on London.
He's sixteenth in the overall ECR rankings amongst all players.
You have him thirteenth, which is the lowest compared to
deebro and Ericson, and yet you are already three spots
higher that consensus. Deaver has them eleventh in Ericson as
in twelve. So as a team, very very high on
Drake Lonon this year. Clearly one of our group's favorite
(06:48):
second round picks. Let's go to round three. Who do
you have here?
Speaker 2 (06:51):
Fits T Higgins his ECRs wide receiver thirteen twenty nine overall.
I know some people think that's aggressive guy who isn't
even the lead receiver on his own team, But I
actually have Higgins wide receiver twelve twenty four overall. I've
moved up Higgins in recent weeks because I started thinking
about what his ceiling could look like in twenty twenty five.
(07:13):
And look, there's certainly a leap of faith to be
made with T. Higgins because of the injury concerns. He's
missed five games in each of the last two years.
Those hamstring issues are a little worrisome. But here's the
upside case. Like Higgins is a good player to begin with,
He's averaged nine yards per target for his career almost
two yards per route run. He scored ten touchdowns in
(07:33):
only twelve games last year. The Bengals passing game is
just a machine. Like I mentioned this on a show
I did with Welsh and Joe Dolan last week. The
lowest yardage total for Joe Burrow in any of his
full seasons four four hundred and seventy five yards the
fewest passing touchdowns for Joe Burrow in any of his
full seasons thirty four. So the Bengals defense is likely
(07:55):
to be bad. So Cincinnati is probably gonna have to
win games thirty eight to thirty five or thirty one
to twenty eight. They're gonna have the pedal to the
medal on offense all year long. Te Higgins stays healthy,
he's gonna put up big numbers this season even with
Chase around. But what if Jamar Chase was the one
who got hurt in miss games over the last three years.
(08:16):
In the five games Chase has missed, T Higgins has
had thirty one catches for five hundred and eleven yards
and three touchdowns. That's twenty PPR Fantasy points per game.
I love t Higgins as a swing for the fence's
option around three.
Speaker 1 (08:31):
No argument with me in terms of the ceiling if
Chase gets hurt. Do you think there really is a
ceiling though? If Chase stays healthy, Because even if you
look at the years before the last two where TI
Higgins missed a bunch of time and he played sixteen
games in twenty twenty fourteen games in twenty twenty one,
sixteen games in twenty twenty two, he never topped eleven
hundred receiving yards. He didn't top seven touchdowns in any
(08:51):
of those years prior to this past season. That seven
touchdowns in twenty twenty two was his high in his career.
He's never been higher than wide receiver seventeen. When I
think of T Higgins against sendy side injury stuff, I
feel like he's more of a of a floor play.
Do you see a ceiling if Chase is on the
field or do you think he needs to get hurt
for him to really elevate to another level.
Speaker 2 (09:13):
I think there's a ceiling even with Chase on the field,
because again, this defense is going to strain the Bengals
offense and force them to be aggressive and throw a lot.
Like I think they're gonna have some negative game scraps
and you know, ten touch ten touchdowns in twelve games
last year. Worm like it's possible Higgins had not fully
hit stride in his career. I think he's at the
(09:35):
peak right now, and it's a good buying time.
Speaker 1 (09:38):
All right, let's go to round four here. Before we do,
I want to remind everybody that all of our twenty
twenty five. Consensus rankings and tiers can be found at
fantasypros dot com slash rankings. I mentioned where the whole
team is Drake London earlier. You can find all of
our rankings there. Navigate to different scoring systems. You can
see our staff rankings compared to ECR expert consensus rankings. Again,
that's Fantasypros dot Com slash rankings. Round four fit, who's
(10:00):
your favorite pick?
Speaker 2 (10:01):
Kenneth Walker? The third Walker's DCR right now is RB
fifteen forty one overall. I'v m RB thirteen thirty four overall,
so I'm about half round ahead of consensus. I think
the perceived health risk with Kenneth Walker's holding down his
ECR and ADP. Like Walker missed six games last year
two games the year before that. People are also probably
(10:21):
a little nervous that Walker is a talented backup behind
him in Zach Sharboney. But I really like the outlook
for Walker in Seattle's new offense. Seahawks are switching to
primarily an outside zone running scheme under new OC Clint Kubiak.
Outside zone really suits Walker, Like friend of the show,
Ryan Heath of Fantasy Points recently noted that the Walker
averages four point five four yards per carry on outside
(10:43):
zone runs for his career. That's better than his career
average of four point two yards per carry. Seattle also
hired Rick Dennison as their running game coordinator, and Dennison
used to work with Clint Kubiak's dad Gary in Denver
back in the nineteen nineties and two thousands, and the
Broncos were always great running the bahull in those days. Yes,
they had either Terrell Davis or Clinton Portis for much
(11:04):
of that time, and those guys were excellent running backs,
but the Broncos also got big one off rushing seasons
out of Reuben Drones, Mike Anderson, Tatum Bell, anonymous guys
who thrived in the Kubiak Dennison system, and when Clint
Kubiak was the Vikings of c in twenty twenty one,
Dalvin Cook had almost twelve hundred rushing yards in just
thirteen games. The scheme works. Walker's going to be playing
(11:26):
in a historically successful system that lets him do what
he does best, get to the edge, make people miss,
and oh one other thing. Kenneth Walker had fewer than
thirty catches each of his first two seasons last year
forty six and eleven games.
Speaker 1 (11:41):
If you promised me that he was going to be healthy,
let's you know, maybe miss his game here there. Let's
say he start sixteen games this season, I'd be taking
Walker as like RB eight and in the middle of
the second round. Truthfully, like to me, where he is
going is what one hundred percent a reflection of the
injury passed. I think if he's healthy, I could not
be higher on Kenneth Walker this year. There's a very
(12:02):
elite tier of the top seven running backs. In my opinion,
he wouldn't break into that othough, maybe he might finish
in the back end of that, but I'd be ranking
him directly behind that group. I the fit is amazing,
the talent's amazing. If he's healthy and on the field,
I'm not even that worried about Sharboney. I think he's
going to be amazing this year. Round five last player
here who you got to build out the top five
rounds of your ideal team.
Speaker 2 (12:23):
So I'll be honest, Worm, there are not a lot
of fifth round options. I love. It looks a little
bit like last year's second round, where you're just trying
to keep your head above water. So James Connor is
my choice. Ciz Ecr is RB nineteen forty nine. Overall,
I'm only a little ahead of that. I have him
at RB eighteen forty seven. Overall, I'm generally not that
(12:44):
attracted to older running backs with extensive injury histories. Connor
is thirty now, and last season was the first time
in his career that he didn't miss at least two games.
But Connor is being drafted as a mid range to
low end RB two, and last year he produced is
more of a low end RB or high end RB two.
He was RB eleven and overall half point PPR fantasy
scoring RB fourteen in fantasy points per game. The Cardinals
(13:09):
offensive line is actually pretty good for a change. Arizona
was ninth in the run blocking Metric adjusted lineyards. Connor
AD's value as a pass catcher. He had the forty
seven receptions last year. And here's the sneak he appealed
to James Connor. His schedule. The Cardinals open with these Saints,
Panthers and forty nine ers, who were all among the
(13:29):
six worst teams last year in terms of fantasy points
allowed to running backs. Then in weeks four through seven,
Connor get gets the Seahawks, Titans, Colts, and Packers a
pretty good set of matchups there too. Connor could get
off to a really fast start this year.
Speaker 1 (13:45):
Obviously, picking Connor here means that you're not really expecting
a guy like Trey Benson to take over the back
to what percentage chances very quickly fits? Would you give
a guy like Bentson taking over? Is it like there's
only like a ten percent chance? Or do you see
it more as like, you know, thirty three forty percent chance?
Speaker 2 (14:00):
No, on the merits like ten percent or last I
don't think we even know if Trey Benson is good.
Speaker 1 (14:04):
Yeah, I think that's right. I just want to double
check because there were some people who liked him. I
liked him a lot going into last season and to
not pan out. If you want more picks like these,
along with Fitz's full positional primers, go to fantasypros dot
com slash kit and dominate every round of your draft
with our Fantasy Football Draft Kit. Also, I want to
let everybody know that this month, if you want a
chance to win a signed James Cook Bill's jersey for
(14:25):
free courtesy of our friends at Pristine Auction dot com.
All you have to do is subscribe to the Fantasy
Pros YouTube channel right now, drop a comment below on
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new videos are up and to claim your prize again
fits his favorite early round picks, Ash and gent Drake London, T. Higgins,
Kenneth Walker, and James Connor. For Fits, I'm Ryan Warmley.
(14:48):
Thanks everybody for tuning in. We'll see you next time.
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(15:09):
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