May 24, 2023 • 44 mins
The hunt for the next top WRs is on! Ryan Wormeli, Pat Fitzmaurice, and Derek Brown are spotlighting 15 wide receivers who are primed for a breakout and have the potential to ascend to WR1 status. Discover why we've singled them out and how they could transform your fantasy team. Why should you invest in Kadarius Toney despite his risk? The Pros will tell you!
Timestamps:
3rd-Year WR1 Breakouts - 0:02:53
DBro's No. 1 - 0:02:59
FantasyPros Dynasty Draft Kit - 0:05:17
Fitz's No. 1 - 0:06:07
DBro's No. 2 - 0:12:22
Fitz's No. 2 - 0:18:27
Deshaun Watson - 0:20:44
FantasyPros Best Ball Draft Kit - 0:21:38
2nd-Year WR1 Breakouts - 0:22:14
DBro's No. 1 - 0:22:22
Fitz's No. 1 - 0:24:19
DBro's No. 2 - 0:26:21
Fitz's No. 2 - 0:29:23
DBro's No. 3 - 0:31:01
Fitz's No. 3 - 0:33:55
Jameson Williams - 0:35:54
Rookie WR1 Breakouts - 0:36:39
Who is DBro higher on than Fitz?
Who is Fitz higher on? Jordan Addison
Rashee Rice vs. Jayden Reed - 0:40:42
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Hello everybody.
Speaker 2 (00:01):
Welcome into another episode of the Fantasy Pros Football Podcast.
I am Ryan Warmley, joined today by Derek Brown and
Pat Fitz, Morris Debro and Fits of Fantasy Pros Fame.
Just to quickly get the Twitter handles out of the way, Deepro,
it's at Deebro Underscore FFB.
Speaker 1 (00:15):
Fits is at FITS Underscore FF. I have at Ryan Warmley. Fitz.
Speaker 2 (00:20):
It's actually been a little while since you and I
have been on the mics together. Obviously we see each
other in the background day to day working together, but
we haven't been on the mics together in a while.
Speaker 1 (00:27):
How are you doing.
Speaker 3 (00:28):
I'm doing great, Ryan.
Speaker 4 (00:29):
Yeah, we have no Big ten basketball or football to
talk about right now, but yeah, man, it's great to
be back on the show with you. Looking forward to
talking to you and Deepro about wide receivers who are
going to be stars this year.
Speaker 1 (00:41):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (00:41):
Man, it's the worst time of the year because not
only is there no football and no Fantasy I though
you do get the dynasty drafts and we of course
just had ours in our work league with the three
of us, but also no Big ten sports, so we'll
get back to.
Speaker 1 (00:52):
That soon enough.
Speaker 2 (00:53):
Debro, I do you know, broadcast with you a little
more regularly. But how are you doing doing good?
Speaker 5 (00:57):
I'm just glad that we're limiting the amount of turf
takes that we're going to have on the podcast today,
so that's always a good starter.
Speaker 2 (01:04):
Yeah, we're talking about wide receiver ones. There's a couple
of pretty good Terps wide receivers. I would like to
point out we're also gonna be talking about some rookies
later on the show. We're mostly focusing on the young
guys here with this show. You know, guys in years one, two,
or three, there are some Turps rookies. None of them
are going to be on our list of course the
future wide receiver ones, but there's.
Speaker 1 (01:22):
Some talent out there. Yeah, let's hop into the show.
Speaker 2 (01:25):
Today's show is all about finding who's got next as
wide receiver ones this upcoming year. It's powered by an
interesting article from Sam Reiner last year named identifying the
next wide Receiver Ones, and he shared some interesting stats
in the article that I wanted to kind of preface
the show with number one. From twenty twelve to twenty
twenty one, there were an average of more than seven
(01:46):
different wide receiver ones in PPR formats year over year,
so you can't just assume that last year's wide receiver
ones will stay wide receiver ones. Also, during that same span,
thirty four percent of wide receiver ones first reached that
mark in their third season, twenty percent do it in
their second season, sixteen percent do it all the way
in their fifth season, and eleven percent do it as rookies.
(02:07):
To reiterate, that's over fifty percent of all players that
become wide receiver ones at some point do so for
the first time as second or third year players. And also,
this article may be a year old at this point,
it's from last year, but that gives us now the
luxury to look back and see the players that Sam
was right on base in this analysis. For example, last year,
some of the players that he correctly speculated high wide
(02:29):
receiver one potential guys like Ceedee Lamb, DeVonta Smith, Aman Ross,
Saint Brown, Christian Kirk all players that he had listened
in his article. So I would encourage everyone listening to
go check it out for a deeper dive sort of
on the stats behind this. But we're gonna be talking
about potential wide receiver one breakouts again. We're gonna go
year three then year two that we're gonna rank the
rookies as far as who we think could get there.
Speaker 1 (02:48):
It was a long winded intro.
Speaker 2 (02:50):
I think everybody's on the same page of what we're
doing here today, so you will jump right in and debro.
I am just going to spoil the first one that
you were talking about. It is DeVante Smith, who I
just mentioned.
Speaker 5 (02:58):
Now.
Speaker 2 (02:58):
He has been a wide receiver one already. He did
it in year two, but he was kind of at
the back end of that. He was wide receiver ten
last year and half PPR scoring. So I will give
you a little leeway here unless you talk about why
you think he could take even another step forward.
Speaker 5 (03:13):
Well, I'm not classifying him as a wide receiver one
because I go by points per game and not totals,
so he was wide receiver fourteen and looking at it
from that perspective, So I think we could see another
jump forward for DeVonta Smith if you look at what
he did last year. I mean, first of all, let's
get this out the way. Everybody wondered and questioned whether
Jalen Hurts could support one top option in Fantasy last year,
(03:35):
much less two or three. We have that answered emphatically.
Last year we saw what AJ Brown did. Devanta Smith
was a wide receiver fourteen in Fantasy points per game,
and if you look at how this target tree evolved
over the year, Davanta Smith played an entirely different role
than he did in his rookie season and previously he
(03:56):
was a field stretcher. Prior to AJ Brown's arrival. Last year,
twenty two percent of his targets came within nine yards
of the line of scrimmage. So we talk about a
high volume guy, and after week eleven he actually best
at AJ Brown and target share and air yards here
thirty percent and thirty seven percent of the target share
at air ar percentage, and you had AJ Brown sitting
(04:17):
at twenty eight and thirty six percent much less. If
we even go back and look at week sixteen and seventeen,
because I know that people are sitting out there and
they're like, well, Dallas Goddard was out for part of that,
so we have to shave DeVonta Smith because there was
new Dallas Goddard Week sixteen and seventeen with Dallas Goddard
and AJ Brown there, DeVonta Smith had almost a thirty
(04:37):
eight percent target share. The talent is there, guys. Aj
Brown is the number one, but DeVonta Smith could be
the number two and actually outproduced him in fantasy this season,
and I don't think it's crazy at all.
Speaker 1 (04:51):
Do you worry about the loss of Shane Steichen as
offensive coordinator?
Speaker 5 (04:55):
No, I'm not worried about that because if you're looking
at the rest of this Philly coaching staff, is BA
basically just shifting around dominoes all these guys and Nick
Sirianni being an offensive minded head coach, he's in those
those rooms as far as coming up with play designs,
the offensive structure. So if this was a team that
was headed by like a defensive minded head coach, I'd
(05:15):
have a little more pause on that.
Speaker 2 (05:17):
Before we get to the rest of the future stars
at wide receiver, I want to ask the listeners, are
you looking to dominate your dynasty league? If so, come
level up your game with the Fantasy Pros Dynasty Draftkit
at fantasypros dot com slash Dynasty. You'll get dynasty startup
and rookie rankings, trade targets, position primers, and even more
in depth rookie analysis.
Speaker 1 (05:37):
All for free.
Speaker 2 (05:39):
Premium Subscribers can also view exclusive strategy articles and enter
our Discord community, which provides direct access to analysts through
amas and stages. Don't miss out visit Fantasypros dot com
slash Dynasty today and build your winning Dynasty roster, and
also go listen to and subscribe to fits on the
Dynasty podcast show that we have here with Fantasy Pros.
(06:01):
Fits give me your first wide receiver, third year wide
receiver that you're looking at as a wide receiver.
Speaker 1 (06:06):
One breakout.
Speaker 4 (06:07):
It is Kadarius Tony, and I get pretty excited about
this guy. I know there are probably some people rolling
their eyes right now, but Kadarius Tony is a special player.
And like I'm not even saying he could be a
special player, he is a special player right now because
his movement skills are just so extraordinary in sort of
the same way that like Barry Sanders movement skills for extraordinary.
(06:30):
This guy just moves like few other human beings do.
He's kind of a marvel of kinesiology. And like the
way Kidarius Tony can just explode out of a stationary
position like a coiled spring and then just stop on
a dime, you know, sit in a zone, catch the
ball and then just explode and by the time the
(06:52):
defender closes on him, like there's just a vapor trail left,
and like the reason people shouldn't asked and Cadarius Tony
despite the risk, which I'll get to in a minute.
Tony has played four hundred and forty five regular season
snaps in his first two years in the league, and
he has drawn seventy seven targets, So he's drawing a
(07:13):
target on seventeen point three percent of his snaps, and
that includes running plays like George Pickens had a fifteen
point three percent target share last year that was on
forward passes that Pittsburgh threw, like Tony is getting a
higher share even when you factor in the running plays
(07:34):
that he's been on the field for. So he draws
targets when he's on the field because he gets so
open so easily. The big risk, obviously, is that he
has been fragile, and in the two years he's been
in the league, he has had hamstring, ankle, quad, shoulder,
and oblique injuries. And he's been on the COVID nineteen
(07:55):
list not once but twice. So yes, keeping this dude
on the field has been a bit of a challenge,
but I mean, the potential.
Speaker 3 (08:03):
Rewards are so lucrative.
Speaker 4 (08:05):
And if we get something close to a seventeen game
season from him, with Patrick Mahomes throwing him the ball
and Andy Reid dialing up the place, like I can
only imagine if he plays seventeen games, We're absolutely getting
a wide receiver one season from Kadarius Tony. And look,
I think the risk is kind of baked in.
Speaker 3 (08:23):
Like his.
Speaker 4 (08:26):
ECR right now is wide receiver forty one. His ADP
and Underdog Best Ball Drafts is wide receiver thirty seven.
He's being drafted as a wide receiver four. So I mean,
there's not that much risk in taking him. And if
he does get hurt and you've got him in a
managed league, you can pick someone up to replace him,
So like, there is definitely room for profit here, and
(08:49):
a significant profit. I mean, like I realized Brian Dable
got sick of Tony when he was with the Giants,
and you know that's why they decided they were going
to trade him. But then Andy Reid pointed a big
beefy finger at Kadarius Tony and said, I want that guy,
like I want this guy in my offense told gm
H Brett Viach to go out and get him, and
(09:11):
they've got him. And now I'm just excited to see
what he can do in a full year in Kansas
City because like they didn't really fully integrate him last year.
They had some gadgety stuff drawn up for him. But man,
with a whole offseason, I can just think of how
much fun Andy Reid has had drawing up plays for
Kadarius Tony these last few months.
Speaker 5 (09:31):
That's my worry, Pat. I was gonna ask you, man,
that's my worry with him. Do you see him getting
a full time role? And I'm just just I don't.
I'm not crapping on it, Okay, I just want to
throw that out there. I like Tony's talent, I'm absolutely
in on that, but do you see him taking a
full time leap, like being the full time player? And
I only ask this man because even like week sixteen
(09:53):
through eighteen, dude was like thirty to thirty two percent
of the snaps. I know his targets per route runner fantastic,
all that kind of stuff, But do you see him
being a full time player, because like, how does that
shake out?
Speaker 4 (10:05):
Like?
Speaker 1 (10:06):
Is it?
Speaker 5 (10:06):
I mean, we know that NBS is gonna run his
cardier routes. Where do who's the other third starting three guys?
Like is it sky Moore and Tony? Is it Rice
and Tony? Like what's their starting three, pap Because that's
the part where I struggle with it.
Speaker 3 (10:22):
Yeah, I know that's a good question, deep bro.
Speaker 4 (10:24):
I mean I want to say that it will be Cadarius, Tony, MVS,
and then man, maybe a competition between like sky Moore
and Rashie Rice. Maybe Rashie Rice just starts off as
the wide receiver four because we saw how much you know,
like sky Moore, we wanted him to fire right away
and he didn't. Like maybe Kansas City is just a
place where it's tough for rookies to take on a
(10:46):
big role right away.
Speaker 3 (10:47):
But I mean I kind of agree with.
Speaker 4 (10:49):
You, Like, I don't think he should necessarily be a
ninety percent snapchair guy, like you know, some of the
top wide receivers are.
Speaker 3 (10:55):
Maybe it would be a little bit.
Speaker 4 (10:56):
Better if they managed his workload. But I do think
he's play significantly more than he played after joining the
team last year, and they just kind of, you know,
had certain packages for him, didn't play a full compliment
of snaps.
Speaker 3 (11:10):
I think that changes this year.
Speaker 2 (11:12):
Have we seen I'm trying to look back actually right
now while you guys are talking, and just to make
sure I'm not overlooking anybody. Have we seen anybody other
than Travis Kelce or a Tyreek Hill have anything close
to a wide receiver? One season in the Patrick Mahomes era,
it was it.
Speaker 5 (11:30):
Was extremely concentrated to those two wide receivers, and after
that you're looking at a bunch of Schmo's man Like.
That's my worry with Kansas City altogether. It's like I
kind of feel like they've molded this offense to be like, Okay,
here's Kelsey, he's our real one, and the rest of
it is just like parts and pieces and packages and
(11:51):
matchups and stuff like that. That's that's my fear. But
to Pat's point, it's kind of priced into Tony's ADP
right now with the upside.
Speaker 1 (11:59):
Isn't That's that's true.
Speaker 2 (12:00):
Just just for the record, I went through all the
seasons here on Pro Football Reference, and it looks like
Juju last year with nine hundred and thirty three yards
only three touchdowns, is probably the best individual season any
of his receiving options have had beyond Hill and Kelsey.
Of course, who is the obvious wide receiver one in
reality in that offense. Yeah, we can move on from Tony.
(12:20):
I think that was a good discussion on him. Deebro,
get to your next one.
Speaker 1 (12:23):
Who's a guy? You know, I'm gonna be happy to
hear all.
Speaker 5 (12:26):
Right, Worm, I know I'm surprised you didn't wear a
Ravens jersey and celebrate this tape with me today. So
despite being a little bit disappointed by that, I'm gonna
sit there and give you a lot of love here.
Speaker 2 (12:39):
First of all, this this is an Old Bay shirt,
so it essentially is a Maryland slash Ravens.
Speaker 5 (12:44):
Nothing against old Baby my man, and nothing against Rashad Baateman. Like,
I'm totally in on Rashad Bateman. I'm not willing to
fade a guy based off of the injuries. I mean literally,
we haven't seen a fully help the season from him,
and people are like and all the injury prognosticators out
there with their crystal balls on Twitter, like they can't
(13:07):
stay healthy not drafting him. The talent's not a problem
with shot Bateman. That does not even be questioned at
all last year when we saw him on the field.
And the other thing I want to point out here
is even when he was out there, everybody was like, well,
he's not been a full time player. I don't think
we saw a healthy version of a shot Bateman. Even
(13:27):
when he was playing last year, he only ran a
round on seventy two percent of dropbacks. Like, in the
context of that offense, why was he not one hundred
percent snap player. I go back to Okay, well, he
only played three games and then he was out again
with the injury. I don't think he was fully healthy.
But in the three game sample, we got guys wide
receiver thirty four in Fantasy points per game, eighteen percent
(13:49):
target chair, thirty percent air ar chair. He had three
point one four yards per route run. And if you're
not even familiar with that metric, that is absolutely beautiful.
Like we're usually out here touting guys as being electric, amazing,
elite if they're above the two mark, much less three
(14:09):
point one. Bateman has got the talent. And I'm not
worried about a washed version of Odell Beckham Junior, who
last time we saw him for the RAMS and yes
he is washed people, I'm sorry, I like the player,
but we need to sit here and call a spade
a spade here. Last time we saw him on the
NFL field playing for the Rams, fifteen percent target chair.
He can only muster a twenty percent target per route
(14:32):
run rate at one point twenty five yards per route run.
So you're looking at the context of this offense someone
people are like, okay, well, even if he can stay healthy,
Now you have Mark Andrews. Now you got Zay Flowers,
Now you got Odell Beckham junior. All that means is
that Todd Monkin is like, We're gonna throw the damn
ball and Bateman is going to be the biggest beneficiary
(14:53):
of that. Because I'm not worried about Odell Beckham fighting
for targets. Zay Flowers. I love him, but he's still rookie.
So now we whittled this down to it's Rashan Bateman
and Mark Andrews sign me up wide receiver one season.
Speaker 1 (15:09):
I'm fully in on Bateman as well.
Speaker 2 (15:11):
The biggest thing is the Todd Munkin thing, right, and
you're gonna hear us talk about him all summer long
in our excitement for the Ravens offense.
Speaker 1 (15:19):
The up.
Speaker 2 (15:19):
The biggest upgrade basically any team made any spot on
their roster this year is the Ravens, that offensive coordinator
going from Greg Roman to Todd Monkin. I don't know
that I agree that like Odell is fully washed, but
I do think he's like gonna be the third best
receiver in this offense at best. I think Bateman is
going to blow him out of the water. And I
think by the end of the year, if not earlier
in the year's A Flowers will be clearly higher as well.
Speaker 1 (15:40):
Then obviously, of course you have Mark Andrews too. I
just Lamar's gonna feast.
Speaker 3 (15:45):
Right.
Speaker 4 (15:46):
If I gave you eleven and a half games as
the total for how many Odell Beckham plays this year,
are you betting over or under?
Speaker 1 (15:54):
I think it's a good line. I would probably bet
the under.
Speaker 3 (15:57):
Under, yeah, going on probably.
Speaker 2 (15:59):
I think he'll be good when he's on the field,
But I think I would take the under on that.
Speaker 1 (16:02):
I mean, he's older, he's a guy coming off of
a major injury.
Speaker 2 (16:05):
Like I think you kind of it's just like smart
process to take the under on a line like that,
But I think he'll be good when on the field.
The one thing I will say with him too, and
I know this isn't a show about Odell. I do
think Lamar has a tendency to when he's really good
friends with the guy off the field, he will focus
in on him on the field to a degree. It's
not like he has pure tunnel vision. But he loved
(16:26):
throwing to Hollywood and he and Hollywood were very close friends.
Speaker 1 (16:29):
Off the field. He is close with Odell.
Speaker 2 (16:31):
He's the one who pushed for the Ravens to add Odell,
So I do worry that early on in the year
he might force feed him a little to a degree.
But again, this Todd Munkett offense is going to get
everybody open. It's gonna spread the ball. You're gonna see
everybody do very well. I think Andrews is the only
guy that I'm like sure is going to be like
a number one at the position. But I would I
love the bet On Baateman, especially where he'd be going
(16:51):
in drafts.
Speaker 1 (16:52):
I think it's a really exciting season.
Speaker 4 (16:54):
Let me ask Debro real quick before we move on.
Like Deebro, I totally agree. I love Baban coming out
of Minnesota. I mean, like he I just didn't think
he had really any holes in his game coming out
of Minnesota, like inside, outside, versatility, and like right away
when he came in, Tyler Johnson was like this star receiver.
Tyler Johnson didn't fire in the NFL, but he was
a great college receiver. And immediately when Bateman got there
(17:15):
as a freshman, like carved out this big.
Speaker 3 (17:17):
Role from stuff.
Speaker 4 (17:18):
But were you at all worried that Raven's GM, Like
the criticism Bateman had for Ravens GM, Eric DaCosta, like
when he was kind of taking shots at Tacosta in the.
Speaker 3 (17:29):
Media, Like did that worry you at all about Like I.
Speaker 4 (17:32):
Know Bateman's position on the team or his standing on
the team and what that might mean for him going forward.
Speaker 5 (17:40):
I'm not worried about it in the sense that I'll
see as a player that's fired up and he's ready
to sit or improve people wrong. Like if that chip
on Bateman's shoulder was the size of a quarter, it's
the size of the dam buick now, Like he is
ready and primed to go out and be like, look like,
screw all y'all, man, I'm gonna prove all y'all wrong,
the GM, the haters, everybody out on social everybody's saying that,
(18:02):
like we don't have wide receivers. We spend all these
first round picks on guys. I think Bateman's gonna blow
up and I think he's just gonna rub it in
everybody's face and I'm so here for it.
Speaker 1 (18:13):
Yeah, and we'll move on here now.
Speaker 2 (18:15):
But just to sort of put a bow on that again,
like if he's complaining about what his usage was last year,
they have a new offense now and that will be
that I think just brings so many opportunities and I'm
really excited for his season.
Speaker 1 (18:27):
Fitz.
Speaker 2 (18:28):
I know when we were talking pre show, we thought
there was kind of a clear top three names for
this category.
Speaker 1 (18:35):
Uh, you had the.
Speaker 2 (18:35):
Misfortune of having to come up with the fourth name
and final one of our thirty year wide receive one breakout.
Speaker 1 (18:41):
Soit did you land on?
Speaker 3 (18:42):
Yeah?
Speaker 4 (18:42):
I mean this is a guy like I can actually
make a case for, though worm and like not a
guy who I necessarily think is ticketed for a wide
receiver one season. But I see a plausible path and
that's Elijah Moore as a rookie in twenty twenty one,
he had that six game stretch from eighteen Week thirteen,
where he had thirty four catches for four hundred and
(19:04):
fifty nine yards and five touchdowns and was the wide
receiver four in PPR Fantasy scoring behind Justin Jefferson, Keenan
Allen and Cooper Kupp. And the quarterbacks who were throwing
him the ball for the Jets during that six game stretch.
It was a potpoirie of Zach Wilson, Mike White, Joe Flacco,
(19:24):
and Josh Johnson. So yeah, I mean like it was
basically Jets quarterbacks doing two things during those six weeks,
throwing to Elijah Moore and getting hurt. And last year
we saw like it was a total disaster for More.
Zach Wilson wasn't able to get him the ball, More
(19:45):
didn't handle it well, basically forced to trade. And now
he's on Cleveland And I don't know exactly what sort
of target share Elijah Moore is going to have this
year in an offense that also includes includes Amari Cooper,
David Nijoku down in People's Jones, I don't know if
Deshaun Watson is going to be the same quarterback he
was a few years ago, or if you know, this
(20:07):
is the new reality that he's just not that good anymore.
But I do know that Elijah Moore has already balled
out and has shown us a pretty good stretch of
wide receiver one play. And this dude just turned twenty three.
I mean, there is still a lot of time for
him to have wide receiver one production over his career,
and hopefully he gets back on the right track after
(20:29):
a bad twenty twenty one. Yeah nine two excuse me?
Speaker 1 (20:34):
And they don't, you know, play the same role.
Speaker 2 (20:36):
But Sadric Tillman another mouth to feed now in Cleveland,
who's you know, drafted by them?
Speaker 1 (20:42):
They didn't have many draft picks, but they used one
on him.
Speaker 2 (20:45):
We've heard from Debro in previous episodes about Deshaun Watson,
so just very quickly because I think he will really
be the key determining factor in how Elijah Moore's season goes.
Speaker 1 (20:53):
So fits just on Deshaun.
Speaker 2 (20:55):
I know you mentioned you don't know what he's going
to look like like projecting out right now, do you
think he's going to be closer to pre suspension to
Sean or to twenty twenty two to Sean.
Speaker 4 (21:05):
I'm cautiously optimistic that he's going to be closer to
pre suspension to Shaan like I've got there's no way
I'm putting him anywhere in the top eights, like I
think there's a pretty clear top tier. It's like basically
Dak or DeShawn for the next guy after the top eight,
and as of now, I've got Dak ranked ahead of Toshan.
(21:27):
Football is a hard game, man, especially for a quarterback,
and everything they have to go through to just be
away from the game that long not able to practice
in a team environment at all, Like, I'm not surprised
he struggled.
Speaker 2 (21:38):
Before we move on to the second year breakouts, let's
take a second to let everyone know that they can
be the top dog this season. With Fantasy Pro's Best
Ball draft Kit at fantasypros dot com slash Bestball, brought
to you by Underdog Fantasy, check out a collection of rankings,
strategy articles, and expert advice for free. Plus Premium subscribers
(21:58):
get access to exclusive right construction and draft strategy articles
in the kit, along with AMA's with our analysts, and
more in our discord community. Don't wait visit fantasypros dot
com slash Fastball and start building your winning best ball
strategy today. So we're moving out of the potential second
year wide receiver one breakouts here. These are the guys
(22:18):
who were rookies last year. Of course, Deebra, I'll start
with you again.
Speaker 5 (22:22):
There are so many wide receivers, like I mentioned in
this I love and this is something I want to
point out on this episode two. If you take nothing
else away from this episode, second and third year wide
receivers are awesome bets to make in fantasy, legit awesome
bets to make. Even if you like hate the guy,
get exposure to him. And the first t I'm going
(22:43):
to bring up and I don't understand why people are
still not on board with him fits. This is for you, baby.
Christian Watson is going to crush this season. Why because
he crushed last season weeks ten through eighteen. Six games
in that sample with eighty percent or more of the snaps,
(23:03):
Christian Watson had a twenty three percent target chair, forty
two percent end zone target chair, three point zero seven
yards per route run. All of these numbers are fantastic
and people are so concerned about Okay, well, what about
Jordan Love and what is this offense going to look like? Okay, well,
(23:26):
what about last year whenever Watson goes out, he drops
a past week one, Aaron Rodgers sticks him in the
freaking doghouse. He deals with injuries upon injuries, and then
finally when we see him fully healthy and somewhat on
the same page with Aaron Rodgers, then you see his
talent unlocked. What about an entire offseason of him actually
(23:47):
getting to work with his quarterback who is not mercurial
and is like, yeah, here you like lookies. Jordan Love
knows where or he should knows where his bread needs
to be butter. And that is with Christian Watson full
offseason the Senator Bill rapport. Say what you want about
Jordan Love. I'm not expecting him to be a top
(24:09):
tier quarterback. I'm just asking for catchuple targets. Put it
in Watson's hands and let the man do work.
Speaker 1 (24:18):
Fitz, I gave deebra a little leeway in the.
Speaker 2 (24:22):
Last section on DeVante Smith. I'm giving you some leeway
here too. Not that Wilson has been a wide receiver
one yet, but Garrett Wilson, he's your next pick.
Speaker 1 (24:29):
Kind of low hanging fruit, right, Oh.
Speaker 4 (24:31):
My goodness, Ryan, this feels like starting a game of
horse with a layup off the glass from underneath the hoop.
I mean, this is just so easy. Like he finished
in wide receiver two range as a rookie with eighty
three catches for eleven hundred and three yards and four touchdowns.
I think we know the touchdowns are going up from there.
Speaker 3 (24:50):
You know.
Speaker 4 (24:50):
Look after catching passes from Zach Wilson and Mike White
last year, Garrett Wilson is now going to be catching
passes from Aaron Rodgers. And maybe Rogers is not the
same he was five years ago, but he's still really
good and can put the ball on the money. So
this is absolutely an upgrade for Garrett Wilson and the
target competition. I really do think it's just kind of
(25:13):
jags around him, you know, like Alan Lazard. Yes he's
familiar with Aaron Rodgers, but he's not a special player.
Like he's big and tall. Maybe he steals a few
end zone looks, but you're.
Speaker 5 (25:27):
Not worried about Randall Cobb Cob.
Speaker 4 (25:30):
Yeah, you know, like if we're gonna call Odell Beckham washed,
I think we probably have to lay out the same
case that Randall Cobb has probably washed too. So yeah,
I mean it's gonna be in All you care to
Eat Targets Morgas board for Garrett Wilson this year and
like a clear path to wide receiver one. And unfortunately
(25:51):
he's being treated like that in early drafts where you
know you're lucky if he lasts to like the mid
second round.
Speaker 2 (25:57):
Yeah, and looking at how the fantasy pros guys areank.
You know, Debro has Wilson as wide receiver fifteen, right,
how fifth? You have him tenth, which is in line
with consensus. Ericson's got him up at fifth. So Erickson
is extremely excited about Garrett Wilson. And quite frankly, I
probably am closer to Ericson on that then I would
be to Deebro down at fifteen. I just don't see
anyway that Garrett's Wilson, like, if he stays healthy, doesn't
(26:19):
absolutely smash this year.
Speaker 1 (26:21):
It seems like a really obvious one.
Speaker 2 (26:22):
So we move on to the next player, and Deebro
that is another guy that went early in last year's draft.
Speaker 5 (26:28):
I don't understand how anybody would not be on the
Christal Lave train. I mean it is leaving the station.
He is going to crush this year, and he follows
in one of these buckets of like this second year
wide receivers that I absolutely love that produced like Future
Alpha's last year. We're looking and I get it, I
(26:48):
get it. It was wide receiver twenty five and fantasy
points per game. A lot of go A lot goes
into that as far as like quarterback play, touchdowns, things
like that. You look at all the deeper metrics, Chris
Olave crush fifteenth in target chair third and air ar
chair tenth in yards per out run. If you look
at open scores, he got open at the seventh highest
(27:12):
rate amongst eighty one qualifying wide receivers, right behind Stefan Diggs.
That is fantastic. And I'm not sitting here telling you
that Derek Carr is going to be one of these
top shelf, like top five, top ten quarterbacks in the NFL.
Nobody should expect that. But what I think that Derek
Carr can do is in still a little bit more
confidence in this coaching staff to call more pass plays
(27:34):
than they did last year with Andy Dalton. So in
that instance, I think there's gonna be more volume. Michael
Thomas is a question mark at best. At best, who
else is challenging him for a twenty five to twenty
seven percent target chair quick answer, No one.
Speaker 1 (27:51):
Yeah, I think you're selling Derek Carr short a little bit.
Speaker 2 (27:54):
Again, not that I think he's gonna be some superstar
or anything in New Orleans, but he is perfectly capable
enough to let an alpha wide receiver be an alpha
and have a smash season like there is nothing. The
quarterback will not be the reason that Alave doesn't succeed
this year if he doesn't greed, and that's like you
really asked for.
Speaker 4 (28:10):
Can I hit up Deebro with a follow up question here,
and Debro, I totally agree. I love a Lave, too
happy to take him where he's being drafted, if not earlier.
If Michael Thomas were to give us, say, sixteen regular
season games and we know that as a monstrous if,
do you think Chris Olave would still have a chance
to finish as a wide receiver one?
Speaker 5 (28:32):
I do. I do because I think that if you
look at what Michael Thomas did in the very small
sample that we got last year, his numbers were very
wide receiver three ish, like his yards per out roam
was hovering in the one point six to one point
seven range, his target share, all these different parts of pieces.
He lived off of touchdowns and that's what really helped him.
(28:53):
I think if you're looking at Michael Thomas in this offense,
and I'll project the offense like right now my rankings
that are live like I have Chris, let me see
right now at wide receiver twelve inm my rankings, and
that is projecting a healthy Michael Thomas, because I think
this version of Michael Thomas, he's a wide receiver three.
If anything, this opens up the offense and allows a
(29:14):
labbe to not only work underneath, but take off the
top of defenses, which we saw last year. So Michael Thomas,
to me, only helps a lave fits.
Speaker 1 (29:23):
Give me your next receiver.
Speaker 3 (29:24):
Here, it's Traylon Burks.
Speaker 4 (29:27):
And we did not get to see as much of
Traylon Buroks in his rookiear as we would have liked.
He played eleven regular season games and only three hundred
and ninety three snaps. Had some interesting flashes, but the
sample size was really too small to draw definitive conclusions.
But we do know that Traylon Burks was a big
producer in his last two years at Arkansas. That He's
(29:51):
six two and two hundred and twenty four pounds and
really hard to tackle when he has the ball in
his hands, and that the Titans spent mid first round
draft capital on him. So what's really attractive here is
the target outlook. And I try not to get too
worked up about what sort of opportunities a player might
have because of what his team's.
Speaker 3 (30:11):
Depth chart looks like.
Speaker 4 (30:12):
Like I like to, I prefer to go by talent
and not depth charts when I'm evaluating players. But it's
really hard to deny the sort of target potential that
Traylon Burk says for the Titans this year when his
target competition is Nick Westbrook, a Keene, Kyle Phillips, and
Chigo Konkwa. I mean, it's not hard to imagine Treylon
(30:32):
Burk's getting one hundred and forty or more targets if
he can stay healthy for a full season.
Speaker 2 (30:37):
Wolf, how many times do I have to reiterate that
there will be no Chigaconque slander when I am hosting
this show.
Speaker 3 (30:44):
And I love chig Man.
Speaker 5 (30:45):
I mean, like Cander Worm, he's just saying the rest.
Speaker 2 (30:48):
He's saying nobody, he's the number Kyle target in this offense.
Speaker 5 (30:52):
Probably, I mean, he probably is the number two, but
even I just that's not even that threatening of a
number two. Though.
Speaker 2 (31:00):
Yeah, now I know, and I just I got to defend
my Guy'll give you your next player, and in this case,
another guy who went in the first round last year.
Speaker 5 (31:09):
Man, people got are probably sick of hearing me talk
about him. But Drake London's talent skill set is he's
freaking awesome. Man. He's absolutely awesome at everything. And I
get he did not pop for us in Fantasy last year,
but if you look at all the other numbers about him,
he's top fifteen in PFF receiving grade yards per route run.
(31:31):
He got open at the sixteenth highest rate in the
NFL last year. And even if and I know people
are going to bring up, well, I know Derek's probably
going to talk about what he did down the stretch
and yeah, I've mentioned that a few times on the show.
But and people they love to push back and say,
well that was without Kyle Pitts, Okay, without Kyle Pitts. Okay,
(31:51):
Well let's look at what he did with Kyle Pitts
on the field. Weeks one through ten in the games
where Kyle Pitts played fifty seven percent or more of
the snaps, London had a higher target share twenty eight
percent to twenty six percent, had a higher end zone
target share, and he bested him in yards per route run.
So bring me to your Kyle Pitts. I'll take your
Kyle Pitts, and I'm still going to tell you that
(32:13):
Drake London is the wide receiver one in this offense
and he has the talent to blow up this year. Yes,
I know Desmond Mitter is not great. I don't care.
I need volume. Give the man volume. And he was
twenty second, twenty second and raw target volume last year,
so it's not like he got eighty targets. The volume
takes up. Just get in a bit. He's gonna crush.
Speaker 2 (32:36):
I'm not doubting the talent, obviously, but you cannot have
any provision out the Falcons without asking you already touched
on Ritter, but you have to also mention Bijon and
the fact that they just took a running back in
the top eight who's generational talent. As a head coach
that you know loves to use a really good talented
running back and run him into the ground. So even
if Drake London is getting a decent target share in
(32:58):
the offense, will there be an volume even with Ritter
now instead of Mariota, for London to actually be a
wide receiver one. Not that he can't be a really
good contributor and maybe even a borderline league winner for
your team, but can it be an actual wide receiver one?
Speaker 5 (33:13):
I think he can. And Bijon That's where a lot
of this comes down, like how much of a target
chair does he get? Because you talked about it where
I'm like, Derrick Henry was not drawing targets and I'm
not saying Bjeon is Derrick Henry. Obviously, Bijon is a
pass game weapon. He could be utilized in that. I
think really where this comes down is what is Desmond
(33:34):
Ridder gonna do? Is Desmond Ridder gonna check down to
Bijon or is he gonna try to take off and
run and get an easy three to five yards that way.
It's still not a part of Ritter's game that we've
seen really utilized. I think that could take a step
forward and so you won't see as many dump off
targets to Bjon as you will short area targets to
Drake London, Pat your last second year breakout.
Speaker 4 (33:57):
It's Johan Datson and he only played twelve games as
a rookie, but he scored seven touchdowns and had five
weeks as a top twenty scorer at the wide receiver position.
I mean he's fast, he's a good route runner, he's
really good after the catch, and for a smaller receiver,
he is surprisingly good and contested catch situations. He's got
(34:19):
that Tyreek Hill my ball mentality on balls in the air.
And yes, Terry McLaurin is there too, and he's really
good in his own right. And Sam Howell, they're going
to be breaking in a quarterback, and you know, we
don't know what that's going to look like. So the
ecosystem might not allow for a wide receiver one season
for Johan Dotson just yet, but I'm excited about his
(34:42):
career trajectory. I do think they're going to be wide
receiver one seasons in his future. And you never know
if it might happen sooner than we expect. You know,
injuries happened, Maybe some other wide receivers in Washington get hurt.
Maybe Sam Howel's a lot better than most of us
are anticipating. But I'm very excited about Jahan Dotson and
happy to about on the talent.
Speaker 5 (35:03):
Pata loved the call on Dotson, man, I was I
was out on him earlier in the offseason, and after
I went back and I looked back what he did
down the stretch, I'm definitely I'm in on him this year.
I mean, you're looking at weeks thirteen through eighteen, he
was twentieth in target share, a third and end zone
target year, and seventeenth and weighted opportunity, as well as
(35:24):
saying he was top fifteen yards per out run. I
think that over versus like his full season numbers, is
a much clearer picture of what his upside could be.
So I love the call of Dotson.
Speaker 4 (35:37):
I was just gonna say, it seems like the markets
have been really slow to warm to Johan Dotson, Like
it doesn't seem to be happening this year and last year.
I mean, people were drafting sky More ahead of him,
even though Dotson was a mid first round pick and
sky More was like a mid second round pick.
Speaker 2 (35:51):
So I think it's notable that there were seven receivers
taken in the top thirty four picks of the twenty
twenty teen draft. We talked about six of them. The
one that we didn't talk about. I just want to
quickly ask Jameson Williams. Obviously is not gonna be a
wide receiver one on the season, and given the suspension,
if the suspension wasn't in place, would either of you
have considered him for this spot.
Speaker 5 (36:12):
Yeah, I would have. I would have definitely considered him.
I mean, we saw what Detroit did last year. I
think their pass rate goes up. We know all the
other parts or pieces are there. I would definitely put
JMO in this bucket fits.
Speaker 3 (36:25):
Yeah, create like the talent is.
Speaker 4 (36:27):
He's on par with Devonte Smith in terms of talent,
and some people you know from the Alabama program would
argue that he's more talented. So he would have merited
consideration without question.
Speaker 2 (36:39):
All right, let's get to our rookie potential wide receiver
one breakout rankings. We don't have a ton of time,
so I'll provide the rankings for you guys, and I
want to focus on where you guys differ. So Deebro's
top five in order from one to five, Jackson Smith
and Jigba Quentin Johnston, Jordan Addison, Zay Flowers, and Rashie
Rice pats Is, Jordan Addison, Zay Flowers, Jackson Smith and Jigba,
(37:02):
Quentin Johnson and Jaden Reed. So we actually have a
lot of differences here, and Deebra, I want to start
at the top because you have JSN, even though he's
in a situation where he is at least entering the
year wide receiver three on the depth chart, fit, you've
got him down at three, Deebro, what's the difference there?
Speaker 5 (37:18):
What are you seeing that fits? Isn't I think that
he's gonna be a full time player. I'm not buying
all this bs out of Pete Carroll that like, oh,
we're gonna we're gonna run all this twelve personnel and
stuff like that. What do you think Pete's gonna tell
the media if you're gonna go out there run eleven
personnel ninety nine percent of the time, are you gonna say, yep,
tight ends are gonna get marginalized. No, I'm all in
(37:38):
on JSN.
Speaker 4 (37:39):
Pete does love his two tight end sets, though Debro
It's got to get Will Disley on the field man.
Speaker 5 (37:45):
Pete also likes talent Chris Carson should have showed us something.
Talent wins out and jsin has the talent to be
a full time starter.
Speaker 2 (37:52):
The other guy that Debro is higher on is Quentin Johnson.
He's got him a two fits, has got him down
at four so fits. What are you not seeing with
Johnson that Debro.
Speaker 4 (38:00):
Is Yeah, just the target ambiguity if we get something
close to full seasons of good health for both Keenan
Allen and Mike Williams.
Speaker 3 (38:09):
Like, I just don't know if he gets to like
one hundred targets.
Speaker 5 (38:12):
I thought you were the qj's man. Why are you
burying him? I thought you loved him so much? Like
I remember drunken conversations about your love for QJ, and
now I'm defending the man. What have happened?
Speaker 4 (38:26):
I know, I'm just like, I'm a little concerned about
what the year one target outlook is like for QJ.
Speaker 3 (38:32):
That's it.
Speaker 4 (38:33):
I do believe in the talent, but I just wonder,
if you know, Keenan Allen and Mike Williams are both
healthy all year, if he can get to one hundred targets,
I don't know that he can.
Speaker 2 (38:42):
The other two guys that were taking to the first
round of the draft. Uh Fits is higher on Fits
as Addison at one. Deebra, You've got him down at three.
So Fits make the case for Addison as the rookie
with the best chance of finishing as a wide receiver
one this year.
Speaker 4 (38:54):
I think Justin Jefferson is going to make life really
easy for Jordan Addison and that he's going to get
coverage from a lot of fury or cornerbacks. And we've
kind of seen these big seasons from the complimentary receiver
in Minnesota when it was Adam Thielen. A lot of
it was touchdown fueled, and I don't know if Addison
gets quite the same attention in the you know, close
(39:15):
to the goal line, the red zone, and the green
zone that thelan got since he's a smaller receiver. But man,
a lot of it would just be like Delan lines
up in the slot. Depending on where the cornerback is
lined up, either as inside or outside leverage, Cousins finds
him right away and I could see Jordan Addison scoring
half a dozen touchdowns on plays like that. So, you know,
I think it would have to be very heavily touchdown fueled.
(39:39):
But I think there's a path for Addison, and like,
I'm not really if I had to put a bet down,
I'm thinking no rookie wide receiver gets to tighten wide
receiver one range this year. But if I was going
to put a bet down on any one receiver to
do it in his rookie ear this year, I think
it would be Addison.
Speaker 5 (39:57):
He's got the player.
Speaker 2 (39:58):
Just to know, there have been five of them in
the last eleven seasons, five rookies that have been wide
receiver runs the past eleven seasons.
Speaker 3 (40:04):
Better wide receiver class is probably than this one, though.
Speaker 2 (40:08):
Four of the five were first round picks, the fifth
was a second and then the other guy that you
guys differ on, Zay Flowers Fits. You have them up
at second, Debro, you have them down at fourth. But Deebra,
I'm curious about that because I know that you really
liked Zay during the pre draft process.
Speaker 5 (40:22):
I mean, I think that Zaya is the talent, but
again I talked about it earlier in this show. I
think it's for Sean Bateman season.
Speaker 3 (40:29):
Man.
Speaker 5 (40:30):
I think that he is the talent and the opportunity
and the rapport with Lamar that if we're looking for
one guy to step up in that offense opposite Mark Andrews.
I think it's Bateman.
Speaker 2 (40:41):
And as I mentioned, you guys each have two different
players in the fifth spot. Obviously have the four first
rounders as your first four, just in very different orders. Deebro,
you've got Reshie Rice, Pat, You've got Jayden Reid. So
kind of go ahead to head here, make the case
for your guy over the other in that fifth spot.
Speaker 5 (40:57):
Go ahead, Pat, beauty before age, go ahead.
Speaker 3 (41:00):
Yeah.
Speaker 4 (41:01):
So yeah, I mean, like there's just so little pass
catching depth on the Green Bay depth chart, like it's
and man, what a ridiculously young pass catching group with
basically Christian Watson, Romeo Dubs, and Jaden Reid at wide
receiver and then the two rookie tight ends they drafted
(41:21):
this year. So that's that's pretty much it. And Reid
had fifty six catches for seven hundred and ninety seven
yards and eight touchdowns as an eighteen year old freshman
at Michigan State playing against Big ten competition. So this
guy's really quick and really explosive, and you know, with
just so little target competition, he's gonna get on the field,
and you know, if he can absorb things quickly, Like,
(41:43):
I think he has a chance to be a year
one contributor.
Speaker 5 (41:47):
Debro your rebuttal, I mean this, this begins and ends
with Patrick Mahomes right, Like that's that's what people are
expecting me to say. But really this comes down to
Rashid Rice Worm. You talked about Juju being the closest
thing that we've scene to amassing bit stepping up next
to Kelsey. I think for Shee Rice was drafted to
be Juju's replacement in the sense that I think that
(42:08):
he if you look at his career at SMU last
year all outside the year before that slot player and
he excels. The guy's been top five, top ten in
yards per route run against zone coverage. I think that
he has a path to take over that Juju role
and be a full time player from day one. And again,
(42:28):
if we're gonna make a bet for a wide receiver
one to come out of a class, I'm betting on
not only that player, but I'm betting on the offensive
system and that environment and the touchdown expectations that are
tied to it. So hell yeah, I'm gonna bet on
Kansas City.
Speaker 4 (42:44):
Let's go deep, bro Andy Andy Reid laid down a
bear trap for you that took the form of more.
Speaker 3 (42:51):
You walked right into it.
Speaker 4 (42:52):
The trap mangled your leg, and now you're ready to
walk right into the same.
Speaker 5 (42:58):
I got one leg, babe, I got one leg left,
and if I gotta hop into this, I'm gonna hop.
Don't care.
Speaker 2 (43:04):
I'm excited to go back a year from now and
look and see who was right because we threw out
a lot of names, and I think there's a lot
of potential here with the guys who threw out.
Speaker 1 (43:12):
That is gonna wrap it up for us today.
Speaker 2 (43:14):
Great show as always, Please everybody remember to check out
our Dynasty Draftkit and our Best Ball Draftkit, which is
brought to you by Underdog Fantasy Forfeits and Debro.
Speaker 1 (43:23):
I am Ryan Warmley. We'll see you guys again soon.
Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Football Podcast.
Speaker 2 (43:28):
Follow us on Twitter and Instagram at Fantasy Pros, and
subscribe to our YouTube channel at YouTube dot com slash
Fantasy Pros.
Hello everybody.
Speaker 2 (00:01):
Welcome into another episode of the Fantasy Pros Football Podcast.
I am Ryan Warmley, joined today by Derek Brown and
Pat Fitz, Morris Debro and Fits of Fantasy Pros Fame.
Just to quickly get the Twitter handles out of the way, Deepro,
it's at Deebro Underscore FFB.
Speaker 1 (00:15):
Fits is at FITS Underscore FF. I have at Ryan Warmley. Fitz.
Speaker 2 (00:20):
It's actually been a little while since you and I
have been on the mics together. Obviously we see each
other in the background day to day working together, but
we haven't been on the mics together in a while.
Speaker 1 (00:27):
How are you doing.
Speaker 3 (00:28):
I'm doing great, Ryan.
Speaker 4 (00:29):
Yeah, we have no Big ten basketball or football to
talk about right now, but yeah, man, it's great to
be back on the show with you. Looking forward to
talking to you and Deepro about wide receivers who are
going to be stars this year.
Speaker 1 (00:41):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (00:41):
Man, it's the worst time of the year because not
only is there no football and no Fantasy I though
you do get the dynasty drafts and we of course
just had ours in our work league with the three
of us, but also no Big ten sports, so we'll
get back to.
Speaker 1 (00:52):
That soon enough.
Speaker 2 (00:53):
Debro, I do you know, broadcast with you a little
more regularly. But how are you doing doing good?
Speaker 5 (00:57):
I'm just glad that we're limiting the amount of turf
takes that we're going to have on the podcast today,
so that's always a good starter.
Speaker 2 (01:04):
Yeah, we're talking about wide receiver ones. There's a couple
of pretty good Terps wide receivers. I would like to
point out we're also gonna be talking about some rookies
later on the show. We're mostly focusing on the young
guys here with this show. You know, guys in years one, two,
or three, there are some Turps rookies. None of them
are going to be on our list of course the
future wide receiver ones, but there's.
Speaker 1 (01:22):
Some talent out there. Yeah, let's hop into the show.
Speaker 2 (01:25):
Today's show is all about finding who's got next as
wide receiver ones this upcoming year. It's powered by an
interesting article from Sam Reiner last year named identifying the
next wide Receiver Ones, and he shared some interesting stats
in the article that I wanted to kind of preface
the show with number one. From twenty twelve to twenty
twenty one, there were an average of more than seven
(01:46):
different wide receiver ones in PPR formats year over year,
so you can't just assume that last year's wide receiver
ones will stay wide receiver ones. Also, during that same span,
thirty four percent of wide receiver ones first reached that
mark in their third season, twenty percent do it in
their second season, sixteen percent do it all the way
in their fifth season, and eleven percent do it as rookies.
(02:07):
To reiterate, that's over fifty percent of all players that
become wide receiver ones at some point do so for
the first time as second or third year players. And also,
this article may be a year old at this point,
it's from last year, but that gives us now the
luxury to look back and see the players that Sam
was right on base in this analysis. For example, last year,
some of the players that he correctly speculated high wide
(02:29):
receiver one potential guys like Ceedee Lamb, DeVonta Smith, Aman Ross,
Saint Brown, Christian Kirk all players that he had listened
in his article. So I would encourage everyone listening to
go check it out for a deeper dive sort of
on the stats behind this. But we're gonna be talking
about potential wide receiver one breakouts again. We're gonna go
year three then year two that we're gonna rank the
rookies as far as who we think could get there.
Speaker 1 (02:48):
It was a long winded intro.
Speaker 2 (02:50):
I think everybody's on the same page of what we're
doing here today, so you will jump right in and debro.
I am just going to spoil the first one that
you were talking about. It is DeVante Smith, who I
just mentioned.
Speaker 5 (02:58):
Now.
Speaker 2 (02:58):
He has been a wide receiver one already. He did
it in year two, but he was kind of at
the back end of that. He was wide receiver ten
last year and half PPR scoring. So I will give
you a little leeway here unless you talk about why
you think he could take even another step forward.
Speaker 5 (03:13):
Well, I'm not classifying him as a wide receiver one
because I go by points per game and not totals,
so he was wide receiver fourteen and looking at it
from that perspective, So I think we could see another
jump forward for DeVonta Smith if you look at what
he did last year. I mean, first of all, let's
get this out the way. Everybody wondered and questioned whether
Jalen Hurts could support one top option in Fantasy last year,
(03:35):
much less two or three. We have that answered emphatically.
Last year we saw what AJ Brown did. Devanta Smith
was a wide receiver fourteen in Fantasy points per game,
and if you look at how this target tree evolved
over the year, Davanta Smith played an entirely different role
than he did in his rookie season and previously he
(03:56):
was a field stretcher. Prior to AJ Brown's arrival. Last year,
twenty two percent of his targets came within nine yards
of the line of scrimmage. So we talk about a
high volume guy, and after week eleven he actually best
at AJ Brown and target share and air yards here
thirty percent and thirty seven percent of the target share
at air ar percentage, and you had AJ Brown sitting
(04:17):
at twenty eight and thirty six percent much less. If
we even go back and look at week sixteen and seventeen,
because I know that people are sitting out there and
they're like, well, Dallas Goddard was out for part of that,
so we have to shave DeVonta Smith because there was
new Dallas Goddard Week sixteen and seventeen with Dallas Goddard
and AJ Brown there, DeVonta Smith had almost a thirty
(04:37):
eight percent target share. The talent is there, guys. Aj
Brown is the number one, but DeVonta Smith could be
the number two and actually outproduced him in fantasy this season,
and I don't think it's crazy at all.
Speaker 1 (04:51):
Do you worry about the loss of Shane Steichen as
offensive coordinator?
Speaker 5 (04:55):
No, I'm not worried about that because if you're looking
at the rest of this Philly coaching staff, is BA
basically just shifting around dominoes all these guys and Nick
Sirianni being an offensive minded head coach, he's in those
those rooms as far as coming up with play designs,
the offensive structure. So if this was a team that
was headed by like a defensive minded head coach, I'd
(05:15):
have a little more pause on that.
Speaker 2 (05:17):
Before we get to the rest of the future stars
at wide receiver, I want to ask the listeners, are
you looking to dominate your dynasty league? If so, come
level up your game with the Fantasy Pros Dynasty Draftkit
at fantasypros dot com slash Dynasty. You'll get dynasty startup
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Speaker 1 (05:37):
All for free.
Speaker 2 (05:39):
Premium Subscribers can also view exclusive strategy articles and enter
our Discord community, which provides direct access to analysts through
amas and stages. Don't miss out visit Fantasypros dot com
slash Dynasty today and build your winning Dynasty roster, and
also go listen to and subscribe to fits on the
Dynasty podcast show that we have here with Fantasy Pros.
(06:01):
Fits give me your first wide receiver, third year wide
receiver that you're looking at as a wide receiver.
Speaker 1 (06:06):
One breakout.
Speaker 4 (06:07):
It is Kadarius Tony, and I get pretty excited about
this guy. I know there are probably some people rolling
their eyes right now, but Kadarius Tony is a special player.
And like I'm not even saying he could be a
special player, he is a special player right now because
his movement skills are just so extraordinary in sort of
the same way that like Barry Sanders movement skills for extraordinary.
(06:30):
This guy just moves like few other human beings do.
He's kind of a marvel of kinesiology. And like the
way Kidarius Tony can just explode out of a stationary
position like a coiled spring and then just stop on
a dime, you know, sit in a zone, catch the
ball and then just explode and by the time the
(06:52):
defender closes on him, like there's just a vapor trail left,
and like the reason people shouldn't asked and Cadarius Tony
despite the risk, which I'll get to in a minute.
Tony has played four hundred and forty five regular season
snaps in his first two years in the league, and
he has drawn seventy seven targets, So he's drawing a
(07:13):
target on seventeen point three percent of his snaps, and
that includes running plays like George Pickens had a fifteen
point three percent target share last year that was on
forward passes that Pittsburgh threw, like Tony is getting a
higher share even when you factor in the running plays
(07:34):
that he's been on the field for. So he draws
targets when he's on the field because he gets so
open so easily. The big risk, obviously, is that he
has been fragile, and in the two years he's been
in the league, he has had hamstring, ankle, quad, shoulder,
and oblique injuries. And he's been on the COVID nineteen
(07:55):
list not once but twice. So yes, keeping this dude
on the field has been a bit of a challenge,
but I mean, the potential.
Speaker 3 (08:03):
Rewards are so lucrative.
Speaker 4 (08:05):
And if we get something close to a seventeen game
season from him, with Patrick Mahomes throwing him the ball
and Andy Reid dialing up the place, like I can
only imagine if he plays seventeen games, We're absolutely getting
a wide receiver one season from Kadarius Tony. And look,
I think the risk is kind of baked in.
Speaker 3 (08:23):
Like his.
Speaker 4 (08:26):
ECR right now is wide receiver forty one. His ADP
and Underdog Best Ball Drafts is wide receiver thirty seven.
He's being drafted as a wide receiver four. So I mean,
there's not that much risk in taking him. And if
he does get hurt and you've got him in a
managed league, you can pick someone up to replace him,
So like, there is definitely room for profit here, and
(08:49):
a significant profit. I mean, like I realized Brian Dable
got sick of Tony when he was with the Giants,
and you know that's why they decided they were going
to trade him. But then Andy Reid pointed a big
beefy finger at Kadarius Tony and said, I want that guy,
like I want this guy in my offense told gm
H Brett Viach to go out and get him, and
(09:11):
they've got him. And now I'm just excited to see
what he can do in a full year in Kansas
City because like they didn't really fully integrate him last year.
They had some gadgety stuff drawn up for him. But man,
with a whole offseason, I can just think of how
much fun Andy Reid has had drawing up plays for
Kadarius Tony these last few months.
Speaker 5 (09:31):
That's my worry, Pat. I was gonna ask you, man,
that's my worry with him. Do you see him getting
a full time role? And I'm just just I don't.
I'm not crapping on it, Okay, I just want to
throw that out there. I like Tony's talent, I'm absolutely
in on that, but do you see him taking a
full time leap, like being the full time player? And
I only ask this man because even like week sixteen
(09:53):
through eighteen, dude was like thirty to thirty two percent
of the snaps. I know his targets per route runner fantastic,
all that kind of stuff, But do you see him
being a full time player, because like, how does that
shake out?
Speaker 4 (10:05):
Like?
Speaker 1 (10:06):
Is it?
Speaker 5 (10:06):
I mean, we know that NBS is gonna run his
cardier routes. Where do who's the other third starting three guys?
Like is it sky Moore and Tony? Is it Rice
and Tony? Like what's their starting three, pap Because that's
the part where I struggle with it.
Speaker 3 (10:22):
Yeah, I know that's a good question, deep bro.
Speaker 4 (10:24):
I mean I want to say that it will be Cadarius, Tony, MVS,
and then man, maybe a competition between like sky Moore
and Rashie Rice. Maybe Rashie Rice just starts off as
the wide receiver four because we saw how much you know,
like sky Moore, we wanted him to fire right away
and he didn't. Like maybe Kansas City is just a
place where it's tough for rookies to take on a
(10:46):
big role right away.
Speaker 3 (10:47):
But I mean I kind of agree with.
Speaker 4 (10:49):
You, Like, I don't think he should necessarily be a
ninety percent snapchair guy, like you know, some of the
top wide receivers are.
Speaker 3 (10:55):
Maybe it would be a little bit.
Speaker 4 (10:56):
Better if they managed his workload. But I do think
he's play significantly more than he played after joining the
team last year, and they just kind of, you know,
had certain packages for him, didn't play a full compliment
of snaps.
Speaker 3 (11:10):
I think that changes this year.
Speaker 2 (11:12):
Have we seen I'm trying to look back actually right
now while you guys are talking, and just to make
sure I'm not overlooking anybody. Have we seen anybody other
than Travis Kelce or a Tyreek Hill have anything close
to a wide receiver? One season in the Patrick Mahomes era,
it was it.
Speaker 5 (11:30):
Was extremely concentrated to those two wide receivers, and after
that you're looking at a bunch of Schmo's man Like.
That's my worry with Kansas City altogether. It's like I
kind of feel like they've molded this offense to be like, Okay,
here's Kelsey, he's our real one, and the rest of
it is just like parts and pieces and packages and
(11:51):
matchups and stuff like that. That's that's my fear. But
to Pat's point, it's kind of priced into Tony's ADP
right now with the upside.
Speaker 1 (11:59):
Isn't That's that's true.
Speaker 2 (12:00):
Just just for the record, I went through all the
seasons here on Pro Football Reference, and it looks like
Juju last year with nine hundred and thirty three yards
only three touchdowns, is probably the best individual season any
of his receiving options have had beyond Hill and Kelsey.
Of course, who is the obvious wide receiver one in
reality in that offense. Yeah, we can move on from Tony.
(12:20):
I think that was a good discussion on him. Deebro,
get to your next one.
Speaker 1 (12:23):
Who's a guy? You know, I'm gonna be happy to
hear all.
Speaker 5 (12:26):
Right, Worm, I know I'm surprised you didn't wear a
Ravens jersey and celebrate this tape with me today. So
despite being a little bit disappointed by that, I'm gonna
sit there and give you a lot of love here.
Speaker 2 (12:39):
First of all, this this is an Old Bay shirt,
so it essentially is a Maryland slash Ravens.
Speaker 5 (12:44):
Nothing against old Baby my man, and nothing against Rashad Baateman. Like,
I'm totally in on Rashad Bateman. I'm not willing to
fade a guy based off of the injuries. I mean literally,
we haven't seen a fully help the season from him,
and people are like and all the injury prognosticators out
there with their crystal balls on Twitter, like they can't
(13:07):
stay healthy not drafting him. The talent's not a problem
with shot Bateman. That does not even be questioned at
all last year when we saw him on the field.
And the other thing I want to point out here
is even when he was out there, everybody was like, well,
he's not been a full time player. I don't think
we saw a healthy version of a shot Bateman. Even
(13:27):
when he was playing last year, he only ran a
round on seventy two percent of dropbacks. Like, in the
context of that offense, why was he not one hundred
percent snap player. I go back to Okay, well, he
only played three games and then he was out again
with the injury. I don't think he was fully healthy.
But in the three game sample, we got guys wide
receiver thirty four in Fantasy points per game, eighteen percent
(13:49):
target chair, thirty percent air ar chair. He had three
point one four yards per route run. And if you're
not even familiar with that metric, that is absolutely beautiful.
Like we're usually out here touting guys as being electric, amazing,
elite if they're above the two mark, much less three
(14:09):
point one. Bateman has got the talent. And I'm not
worried about a washed version of Odell Beckham Junior, who
last time we saw him for the RAMS and yes
he is washed people, I'm sorry, I like the player,
but we need to sit here and call a spade
a spade here. Last time we saw him on the
NFL field playing for the Rams, fifteen percent target chair.
He can only muster a twenty percent target per route
(14:32):
run rate at one point twenty five yards per route run.
So you're looking at the context of this offense someone
people are like, okay, well, even if he can stay healthy,
Now you have Mark Andrews. Now you got Zay Flowers,
Now you got Odell Beckham junior. All that means is
that Todd Monkin is like, We're gonna throw the damn
ball and Bateman is going to be the biggest beneficiary
(14:53):
of that. Because I'm not worried about Odell Beckham fighting
for targets. Zay Flowers. I love him, but he's still rookie.
So now we whittled this down to it's Rashan Bateman
and Mark Andrews sign me up wide receiver one season.
Speaker 1 (15:09):
I'm fully in on Bateman as well.
Speaker 2 (15:11):
The biggest thing is the Todd Munkin thing, right, and
you're gonna hear us talk about him all summer long
in our excitement for the Ravens offense.
Speaker 1 (15:19):
The up.
Speaker 2 (15:19):
The biggest upgrade basically any team made any spot on
their roster this year is the Ravens, that offensive coordinator
going from Greg Roman to Todd Monkin. I don't know
that I agree that like Odell is fully washed, but
I do think he's like gonna be the third best
receiver in this offense at best. I think Bateman is
going to blow him out of the water. And I
think by the end of the year, if not earlier
in the year's A Flowers will be clearly higher as well.
Speaker 1 (15:40):
Then obviously, of course you have Mark Andrews too. I
just Lamar's gonna feast.
Speaker 3 (15:45):
Right.
Speaker 4 (15:46):
If I gave you eleven and a half games as
the total for how many Odell Beckham plays this year,
are you betting over or under?
Speaker 1 (15:54):
I think it's a good line. I would probably bet
the under.
Speaker 3 (15:57):
Under, yeah, going on probably.
Speaker 2 (15:59):
I think he'll be good when he's on the field,
But I think I would take the under on that.
Speaker 1 (16:02):
I mean, he's older, he's a guy coming off of
a major injury.
Speaker 2 (16:05):
Like I think you kind of it's just like smart
process to take the under on a line like that,
But I think he'll be good when on the field.
The one thing I will say with him too, and
I know this isn't a show about Odell. I do
think Lamar has a tendency to when he's really good
friends with the guy off the field, he will focus
in on him on the field to a degree. It's
not like he has pure tunnel vision. But he loved
(16:26):
throwing to Hollywood and he and Hollywood were very close friends.
Speaker 1 (16:29):
Off the field. He is close with Odell.
Speaker 2 (16:31):
He's the one who pushed for the Ravens to add Odell,
So I do worry that early on in the year
he might force feed him a little to a degree.
But again, this Todd Munkett offense is going to get
everybody open. It's gonna spread the ball. You're gonna see
everybody do very well. I think Andrews is the only
guy that I'm like sure is going to be like
a number one at the position. But I would I
love the bet On Baateman, especially where he'd be going
(16:51):
in drafts.
Speaker 1 (16:52):
I think it's a really exciting season.
Speaker 4 (16:54):
Let me ask Debro real quick before we move on.
Like Deebro, I totally agree. I love Baban coming out
of Minnesota. I mean, like he I just didn't think
he had really any holes in his game coming out
of Minnesota, like inside, outside, versatility, and like right away
when he came in, Tyler Johnson was like this star receiver.
Tyler Johnson didn't fire in the NFL, but he was
a great college receiver. And immediately when Bateman got there
(17:15):
as a freshman, like carved out this big.
Speaker 3 (17:17):
Role from stuff.
Speaker 4 (17:18):
But were you at all worried that Raven's GM, Like
the criticism Bateman had for Ravens GM, Eric DaCosta, like
when he was kind of taking shots at Tacosta in the.
Speaker 3 (17:29):
Media, Like did that worry you at all about Like I.
Speaker 4 (17:32):
Know Bateman's position on the team or his standing on
the team and what that might mean for him going forward.
Speaker 5 (17:40):
I'm not worried about it in the sense that I'll
see as a player that's fired up and he's ready
to sit or improve people wrong. Like if that chip
on Bateman's shoulder was the size of a quarter, it's
the size of the dam buick now, Like he is
ready and primed to go out and be like, look like,
screw all y'all, man, I'm gonna prove all y'all wrong,
the GM, the haters, everybody out on social everybody's saying that,
(18:02):
like we don't have wide receivers. We spend all these
first round picks on guys. I think Bateman's gonna blow
up and I think he's just gonna rub it in
everybody's face and I'm so here for it.
Speaker 1 (18:13):
Yeah, and we'll move on here now.
Speaker 2 (18:15):
But just to sort of put a bow on that again,
like if he's complaining about what his usage was last year,
they have a new offense now and that will be
that I think just brings so many opportunities and I'm
really excited for his season.
Speaker 1 (18:27):
Fitz.
Speaker 2 (18:28):
I know when we were talking pre show, we thought
there was kind of a clear top three names for
this category.
Speaker 1 (18:35):
Uh, you had the.
Speaker 2 (18:35):
Misfortune of having to come up with the fourth name
and final one of our thirty year wide receive one breakout.
Speaker 1 (18:41):
Soit did you land on?
Speaker 3 (18:42):
Yeah?
Speaker 4 (18:42):
I mean this is a guy like I can actually
make a case for, though worm and like not a
guy who I necessarily think is ticketed for a wide
receiver one season. But I see a plausible path and
that's Elijah Moore as a rookie in twenty twenty one,
he had that six game stretch from eighteen Week thirteen,
where he had thirty four catches for four hundred and
(19:04):
fifty nine yards and five touchdowns and was the wide
receiver four in PPR Fantasy scoring behind Justin Jefferson, Keenan
Allen and Cooper Kupp. And the quarterbacks who were throwing
him the ball for the Jets during that six game stretch.
It was a potpoirie of Zach Wilson, Mike White, Joe Flacco,
(19:24):
and Josh Johnson. So yeah, I mean like it was
basically Jets quarterbacks doing two things during those six weeks,
throwing to Elijah Moore and getting hurt. And last year
we saw like it was a total disaster for More.
Zach Wilson wasn't able to get him the ball, More
(19:45):
didn't handle it well, basically forced to trade. And now
he's on Cleveland And I don't know exactly what sort
of target share Elijah Moore is going to have this
year in an offense that also includes includes Amari Cooper,
David Nijoku down in People's Jones, I don't know if
Deshaun Watson is going to be the same quarterback he
was a few years ago, or if you know, this
(20:07):
is the new reality that he's just not that good anymore.
But I do know that Elijah Moore has already balled
out and has shown us a pretty good stretch of
wide receiver one play. And this dude just turned twenty three.
I mean, there is still a lot of time for
him to have wide receiver one production over his career,
and hopefully he gets back on the right track after
(20:29):
a bad twenty twenty one. Yeah nine two excuse me?
Speaker 1 (20:34):
And they don't, you know, play the same role.
Speaker 2 (20:36):
But Sadric Tillman another mouth to feed now in Cleveland,
who's you know, drafted by them?
Speaker 1 (20:42):
They didn't have many draft picks, but they used one
on him.
Speaker 2 (20:45):
We've heard from Debro in previous episodes about Deshaun Watson,
so just very quickly because I think he will really
be the key determining factor in how Elijah Moore's season goes.
Speaker 1 (20:53):
So fits just on Deshaun.
Speaker 2 (20:55):
I know you mentioned you don't know what he's going
to look like like projecting out right now, do you
think he's going to be closer to pre suspension to
Sean or to twenty twenty two to Sean.
Speaker 4 (21:05):
I'm cautiously optimistic that he's going to be closer to
pre suspension to Shaan like I've got there's no way
I'm putting him anywhere in the top eights, like I
think there's a pretty clear top tier. It's like basically
Dak or DeShawn for the next guy after the top eight,
and as of now, I've got Dak ranked ahead of Toshan.
(21:27):
Football is a hard game, man, especially for a quarterback,
and everything they have to go through to just be
away from the game that long not able to practice
in a team environment at all, Like, I'm not surprised
he struggled.
Speaker 2 (21:38):
Before we move on to the second year breakouts, let's
take a second to let everyone know that they can
be the top dog this season. With Fantasy Pro's Best
Ball draft Kit at fantasypros dot com slash Bestball, brought
to you by Underdog Fantasy, check out a collection of rankings,
strategy articles, and expert advice for free. Plus Premium subscribers
(21:58):
get access to exclusive right construction and draft strategy articles
in the kit, along with AMA's with our analysts, and
more in our discord community. Don't wait visit fantasypros dot
com slash Fastball and start building your winning best ball
strategy today. So we're moving out of the potential second
year wide receiver one breakouts here. These are the guys
(22:18):
who were rookies last year. Of course, Deebra, I'll start
with you again.
Speaker 5 (22:22):
There are so many wide receivers, like I mentioned in
this I love and this is something I want to
point out on this episode two. If you take nothing
else away from this episode, second and third year wide
receivers are awesome bets to make in fantasy, legit awesome
bets to make. Even if you like hate the guy,
get exposure to him. And the first t I'm going
(22:43):
to bring up and I don't understand why people are
still not on board with him fits. This is for you, baby.
Christian Watson is going to crush this season. Why because
he crushed last season weeks ten through eighteen. Six games
in that sample with eighty percent or more of the snaps,
(23:03):
Christian Watson had a twenty three percent target chair, forty
two percent end zone target chair, three point zero seven
yards per route run. All of these numbers are fantastic
and people are so concerned about Okay, well, what about
Jordan Love and what is this offense going to look like? Okay, well,
(23:26):
what about last year whenever Watson goes out, he drops
a past week one, Aaron Rodgers sticks him in the
freaking doghouse. He deals with injuries upon injuries, and then
finally when we see him fully healthy and somewhat on
the same page with Aaron Rodgers, then you see his
talent unlocked. What about an entire offseason of him actually
(23:47):
getting to work with his quarterback who is not mercurial
and is like, yeah, here you like lookies. Jordan Love
knows where or he should knows where his bread needs
to be butter. And that is with Christian Watson full
offseason the Senator Bill rapport. Say what you want about
Jordan Love. I'm not expecting him to be a top
(24:09):
tier quarterback. I'm just asking for catchuple targets. Put it
in Watson's hands and let the man do work.
Speaker 1 (24:18):
Fitz, I gave deebra a little leeway in the.
Speaker 2 (24:22):
Last section on DeVante Smith. I'm giving you some leeway
here too. Not that Wilson has been a wide receiver
one yet, but Garrett Wilson, he's your next pick.
Speaker 1 (24:29):
Kind of low hanging fruit, right, Oh.
Speaker 4 (24:31):
My goodness, Ryan, this feels like starting a game of
horse with a layup off the glass from underneath the hoop.
I mean, this is just so easy. Like he finished
in wide receiver two range as a rookie with eighty
three catches for eleven hundred and three yards and four touchdowns.
I think we know the touchdowns are going up from there.
Speaker 3 (24:50):
You know.
Speaker 4 (24:50):
Look after catching passes from Zach Wilson and Mike White
last year, Garrett Wilson is now going to be catching
passes from Aaron Rodgers. And maybe Rogers is not the
same he was five years ago, but he's still really
good and can put the ball on the money. So
this is absolutely an upgrade for Garrett Wilson and the
target competition. I really do think it's just kind of
(25:13):
jags around him, you know, like Alan Lazard. Yes he's
familiar with Aaron Rodgers, but he's not a special player.
Like he's big and tall. Maybe he steals a few
end zone looks, but you're.
Speaker 5 (25:27):
Not worried about Randall Cobb Cob.
Speaker 4 (25:30):
Yeah, you know, like if we're gonna call Odell Beckham washed,
I think we probably have to lay out the same
case that Randall Cobb has probably washed too. So yeah,
I mean it's gonna be in All you care to
Eat Targets Morgas board for Garrett Wilson this year and
like a clear path to wide receiver one. And unfortunately
(25:51):
he's being treated like that in early drafts where you
know you're lucky if he lasts to like the mid
second round.
Speaker 2 (25:57):
Yeah, and looking at how the fantasy pros guys areank.
You know, Debro has Wilson as wide receiver fifteen, right,
how fifth? You have him tenth, which is in line
with consensus. Ericson's got him up at fifth. So Erickson
is extremely excited about Garrett Wilson. And quite frankly, I
probably am closer to Ericson on that then I would
be to Deebro down at fifteen. I just don't see
anyway that Garrett's Wilson, like, if he stays healthy, doesn't
(26:19):
absolutely smash this year.
Speaker 1 (26:21):
It seems like a really obvious one.
Speaker 2 (26:22):
So we move on to the next player, and Deebro
that is another guy that went early in last year's draft.
Speaker 5 (26:28):
I don't understand how anybody would not be on the
Christal Lave train. I mean it is leaving the station.
He is going to crush this year, and he follows
in one of these buckets of like this second year
wide receivers that I absolutely love that produced like Future
Alpha's last year. We're looking and I get it, I
(26:48):
get it. It was wide receiver twenty five and fantasy
points per game. A lot of go A lot goes
into that as far as like quarterback play, touchdowns, things
like that. You look at all the deeper metrics, Chris
Olave crush fifteenth in target chair third and air ar
chair tenth in yards per out run. If you look
at open scores, he got open at the seventh highest
(27:12):
rate amongst eighty one qualifying wide receivers, right behind Stefan Diggs.
That is fantastic. And I'm not sitting here telling you
that Derek Carr is going to be one of these
top shelf, like top five, top ten quarterbacks in the NFL.
Nobody should expect that. But what I think that Derek
Carr can do is in still a little bit more
confidence in this coaching staff to call more pass plays
(27:34):
than they did last year with Andy Dalton. So in
that instance, I think there's gonna be more volume. Michael
Thomas is a question mark at best. At best, who
else is challenging him for a twenty five to twenty
seven percent target chair quick answer, No one.
Speaker 1 (27:51):
Yeah, I think you're selling Derek Carr short a little bit.
Speaker 2 (27:54):
Again, not that I think he's gonna be some superstar
or anything in New Orleans, but he is perfectly capable
enough to let an alpha wide receiver be an alpha
and have a smash season like there is nothing. The
quarterback will not be the reason that Alave doesn't succeed
this year if he doesn't greed, and that's like you
really asked for.
Speaker 4 (28:10):
Can I hit up Deebro with a follow up question here,
and Debro, I totally agree. I love a Lave, too
happy to take him where he's being drafted, if not earlier.
If Michael Thomas were to give us, say, sixteen regular
season games and we know that as a monstrous if,
do you think Chris Olave would still have a chance
to finish as a wide receiver one?
Speaker 5 (28:32):
I do. I do because I think that if you
look at what Michael Thomas did in the very small
sample that we got last year, his numbers were very
wide receiver three ish, like his yards per out roam
was hovering in the one point six to one point
seven range, his target share, all these different parts of pieces.
He lived off of touchdowns and that's what really helped him.
(28:53):
I think if you're looking at Michael Thomas in this offense,
and I'll project the offense like right now my rankings
that are live like I have Chris, let me see
right now at wide receiver twelve inm my rankings, and
that is projecting a healthy Michael Thomas, because I think
this version of Michael Thomas, he's a wide receiver three.
If anything, this opens up the offense and allows a
(29:14):
labbe to not only work underneath, but take off the
top of defenses, which we saw last year. So Michael Thomas,
to me, only helps a lave fits.
Speaker 1 (29:23):
Give me your next receiver.
Speaker 3 (29:24):
Here, it's Traylon Burks.
Speaker 4 (29:27):
And we did not get to see as much of
Traylon Buroks in his rookiear as we would have liked.
He played eleven regular season games and only three hundred
and ninety three snaps. Had some interesting flashes, but the
sample size was really too small to draw definitive conclusions.
But we do know that Traylon Burks was a big
producer in his last two years at Arkansas. That He's
(29:51):
six two and two hundred and twenty four pounds and
really hard to tackle when he has the ball in
his hands, and that the Titans spent mid first round
draft capital on him. So what's really attractive here is
the target outlook. And I try not to get too
worked up about what sort of opportunities a player might
have because of what his team's.
Speaker 3 (30:11):
Depth chart looks like.
Speaker 4 (30:12):
Like I like to, I prefer to go by talent
and not depth charts when I'm evaluating players. But it's
really hard to deny the sort of target potential that
Traylon Burk says for the Titans this year when his
target competition is Nick Westbrook, a Keene, Kyle Phillips, and
Chigo Konkwa. I mean, it's not hard to imagine Treylon
(30:32):
Burk's getting one hundred and forty or more targets if
he can stay healthy for a full season.
Speaker 2 (30:37):
Wolf, how many times do I have to reiterate that
there will be no Chigaconque slander when I am hosting
this show.
Speaker 3 (30:44):
And I love chig Man.
Speaker 5 (30:45):
I mean, like Cander Worm, he's just saying the rest.
Speaker 2 (30:48):
He's saying nobody, he's the number Kyle target in this offense.
Speaker 5 (30:52):
Probably, I mean, he probably is the number two, but
even I just that's not even that threatening of a
number two. Though.
Speaker 2 (31:00):
Yeah, now I know, and I just I got to defend
my Guy'll give you your next player, and in this case,
another guy who went in the first round last year.
Speaker 5 (31:09):
Man, people got are probably sick of hearing me talk
about him. But Drake London's talent skill set is he's
freaking awesome. Man. He's absolutely awesome at everything. And I
get he did not pop for us in Fantasy last year,
but if you look at all the other numbers about him,
he's top fifteen in PFF receiving grade yards per route run.
(31:31):
He got open at the sixteenth highest rate in the
NFL last year. And even if and I know people
are going to bring up, well, I know Derek's probably
going to talk about what he did down the stretch
and yeah, I've mentioned that a few times on the show.
But and people they love to push back and say,
well that was without Kyle Pitts, Okay, without Kyle Pitts. Okay,
(31:51):
Well let's look at what he did with Kyle Pitts
on the field. Weeks one through ten in the games
where Kyle Pitts played fifty seven percent or more of
the snaps, London had a higher target share twenty eight
percent to twenty six percent, had a higher end zone
target share, and he bested him in yards per route run.
So bring me to your Kyle Pitts. I'll take your
Kyle Pitts, and I'm still going to tell you that
(32:13):
Drake London is the wide receiver one in this offense
and he has the talent to blow up this year. Yes,
I know Desmond Mitter is not great. I don't care.
I need volume. Give the man volume. And he was
twenty second, twenty second and raw target volume last year,
so it's not like he got eighty targets. The volume
takes up. Just get in a bit. He's gonna crush.
Speaker 2 (32:36):
I'm not doubting the talent, obviously, but you cannot have
any provision out the Falcons without asking you already touched
on Ritter, but you have to also mention Bijon and
the fact that they just took a running back in
the top eight who's generational talent. As a head coach
that you know loves to use a really good talented
running back and run him into the ground. So even
if Drake London is getting a decent target share in
(32:58):
the offense, will there be an volume even with Ritter
now instead of Mariota, for London to actually be a
wide receiver one. Not that he can't be a really
good contributor and maybe even a borderline league winner for
your team, but can it be an actual wide receiver one?
Speaker 5 (33:13):
I think he can. And Bijon That's where a lot
of this comes down, like how much of a target
chair does he get? Because you talked about it where
I'm like, Derrick Henry was not drawing targets and I'm
not saying Bjeon is Derrick Henry. Obviously, Bijon is a
pass game weapon. He could be utilized in that. I
think really where this comes down is what is Desmond
(33:34):
Ridder gonna do? Is Desmond Ridder gonna check down to
Bijon or is he gonna try to take off and
run and get an easy three to five yards that way.
It's still not a part of Ritter's game that we've
seen really utilized. I think that could take a step
forward and so you won't see as many dump off
targets to Bjon as you will short area targets to
Drake London, Pat your last second year breakout.
Speaker 4 (33:57):
It's Johan Datson and he only played twelve games as
a rookie, but he scored seven touchdowns and had five
weeks as a top twenty scorer at the wide receiver position.
I mean he's fast, he's a good route runner, he's
really good after the catch, and for a smaller receiver,
he is surprisingly good and contested catch situations. He's got
(34:19):
that Tyreek Hill my ball mentality on balls in the air.
And yes, Terry McLaurin is there too, and he's really
good in his own right. And Sam Howell, they're going
to be breaking in a quarterback, and you know, we
don't know what that's going to look like. So the
ecosystem might not allow for a wide receiver one season
for Johan Dotson just yet, but I'm excited about his
(34:42):
career trajectory. I do think they're going to be wide
receiver one seasons in his future. And you never know
if it might happen sooner than we expect. You know,
injuries happened, Maybe some other wide receivers in Washington get hurt.
Maybe Sam Howel's a lot better than most of us
are anticipating. But I'm very excited about Jahan Dotson and
happy to about on the talent.
Speaker 5 (35:03):
Pata loved the call on Dotson, man, I was I
was out on him earlier in the offseason, and after
I went back and I looked back what he did
down the stretch, I'm definitely I'm in on him this year.
I mean, you're looking at weeks thirteen through eighteen, he
was twentieth in target share, a third and end zone
target year, and seventeenth and weighted opportunity, as well as
(35:24):
saying he was top fifteen yards per out run. I
think that over versus like his full season numbers, is
a much clearer picture of what his upside could be.
So I love the call of Dotson.
Speaker 4 (35:37):
I was just gonna say, it seems like the markets
have been really slow to warm to Johan Dotson, Like
it doesn't seem to be happening this year and last year.
I mean, people were drafting sky More ahead of him,
even though Dotson was a mid first round pick and
sky More was like a mid second round pick.
Speaker 2 (35:51):
So I think it's notable that there were seven receivers
taken in the top thirty four picks of the twenty
twenty teen draft. We talked about six of them. The
one that we didn't talk about. I just want to
quickly ask Jameson Williams. Obviously is not gonna be a
wide receiver one on the season, and given the suspension,
if the suspension wasn't in place, would either of you
have considered him for this spot.
Speaker 5 (36:12):
Yeah, I would have. I would have definitely considered him.
I mean, we saw what Detroit did last year. I
think their pass rate goes up. We know all the
other parts or pieces are there. I would definitely put
JMO in this bucket fits.
Speaker 3 (36:25):
Yeah, create like the talent is.
Speaker 4 (36:27):
He's on par with Devonte Smith in terms of talent,
and some people you know from the Alabama program would
argue that he's more talented. So he would have merited
consideration without question.
Speaker 2 (36:39):
All right, let's get to our rookie potential wide receiver
one breakout rankings. We don't have a ton of time,
so I'll provide the rankings for you guys, and I
want to focus on where you guys differ. So Deebro's
top five in order from one to five, Jackson Smith
and Jigba Quentin Johnston, Jordan Addison, Zay Flowers, and Rashie
Rice pats Is, Jordan Addison, Zay Flowers, Jackson Smith and Jigba,
(37:02):
Quentin Johnson and Jaden Reed. So we actually have a
lot of differences here, and Deebra, I want to start
at the top because you have JSN, even though he's
in a situation where he is at least entering the
year wide receiver three on the depth chart, fit, you've
got him down at three, Deebro, what's the difference there?
Speaker 5 (37:18):
What are you seeing that fits? Isn't I think that
he's gonna be a full time player. I'm not buying
all this bs out of Pete Carroll that like, oh,
we're gonna we're gonna run all this twelve personnel and
stuff like that. What do you think Pete's gonna tell
the media if you're gonna go out there run eleven
personnel ninety nine percent of the time, are you gonna say, yep,
tight ends are gonna get marginalized. No, I'm all in
(37:38):
on JSN.
Speaker 4 (37:39):
Pete does love his two tight end sets, though Debro
It's got to get Will Disley on the field man.
Speaker 5 (37:45):
Pete also likes talent Chris Carson should have showed us something.
Talent wins out and jsin has the talent to be
a full time starter.
Speaker 2 (37:52):
The other guy that Debro is higher on is Quentin Johnson.
He's got him a two fits, has got him down
at four so fits. What are you not seeing with
Johnson that Debro.
Speaker 4 (38:00):
Is Yeah, just the target ambiguity if we get something
close to full seasons of good health for both Keenan
Allen and Mike Williams.
Speaker 3 (38:09):
Like, I just don't know if he gets to like
one hundred targets.
Speaker 5 (38:12):
I thought you were the qj's man. Why are you
burying him? I thought you loved him so much? Like
I remember drunken conversations about your love for QJ, and
now I'm defending the man. What have happened?
Speaker 4 (38:26):
I know, I'm just like, I'm a little concerned about
what the year one target outlook is like for QJ.
Speaker 3 (38:32):
That's it.
Speaker 4 (38:33):
I do believe in the talent, but I just wonder,
if you know, Keenan Allen and Mike Williams are both
healthy all year, if he can get to one hundred targets,
I don't know that he can.
Speaker 2 (38:42):
The other two guys that were taking to the first
round of the draft. Uh Fits is higher on Fits
as Addison at one. Deebra, You've got him down at three.
So Fits make the case for Addison as the rookie
with the best chance of finishing as a wide receiver
one this year.
Speaker 4 (38:54):
I think Justin Jefferson is going to make life really
easy for Jordan Addison and that he's going to get
coverage from a lot of fury or cornerbacks. And we've
kind of seen these big seasons from the complimentary receiver
in Minnesota when it was Adam Thielen. A lot of
it was touchdown fueled, and I don't know if Addison
gets quite the same attention in the you know, close
(39:15):
to the goal line, the red zone, and the green
zone that thelan got since he's a smaller receiver. But man,
a lot of it would just be like Delan lines
up in the slot. Depending on where the cornerback is
lined up, either as inside or outside leverage, Cousins finds
him right away and I could see Jordan Addison scoring
half a dozen touchdowns on plays like that. So, you know,
I think it would have to be very heavily touchdown fueled.
(39:39):
But I think there's a path for Addison, and like,
I'm not really if I had to put a bet down,
I'm thinking no rookie wide receiver gets to tighten wide
receiver one range this year. But if I was going
to put a bet down on any one receiver to
do it in his rookie ear this year, I think
it would be Addison.
Speaker 5 (39:57):
He's got the player.
Speaker 2 (39:58):
Just to know, there have been five of them in
the last eleven seasons, five rookies that have been wide
receiver runs the past eleven seasons.
Speaker 3 (40:04):
Better wide receiver class is probably than this one, though.
Speaker 2 (40:08):
Four of the five were first round picks, the fifth
was a second and then the other guy that you
guys differ on, Zay Flowers Fits. You have them up
at second, Debro, you have them down at fourth. But Deebra,
I'm curious about that because I know that you really
liked Zay during the pre draft process.
Speaker 5 (40:22):
I mean, I think that Zaya is the talent, but
again I talked about it earlier in this show. I
think it's for Sean Bateman season.
Speaker 3 (40:29):
Man.
Speaker 5 (40:30):
I think that he is the talent and the opportunity
and the rapport with Lamar that if we're looking for
one guy to step up in that offense opposite Mark Andrews.
I think it's Bateman.
Speaker 2 (40:41):
And as I mentioned, you guys each have two different
players in the fifth spot. Obviously have the four first
rounders as your first four, just in very different orders. Deebro,
you've got Reshie Rice, Pat, You've got Jayden Reid. So
kind of go ahead to head here, make the case
for your guy over the other in that fifth spot.
Speaker 5 (40:57):
Go ahead, Pat, beauty before age, go ahead.
Speaker 3 (41:00):
Yeah.
Speaker 4 (41:01):
So yeah, I mean, like there's just so little pass
catching depth on the Green Bay depth chart, like it's
and man, what a ridiculously young pass catching group with
basically Christian Watson, Romeo Dubs, and Jaden Reid at wide
receiver and then the two rookie tight ends they drafted
(41:21):
this year. So that's that's pretty much it. And Reid
had fifty six catches for seven hundred and ninety seven
yards and eight touchdowns as an eighteen year old freshman
at Michigan State playing against Big ten competition. So this
guy's really quick and really explosive, and you know, with
just so little target competition, he's gonna get on the field,
and you know, if he can absorb things quickly, Like,
(41:43):
I think he has a chance to be a year
one contributor.
Speaker 5 (41:47):
Debro your rebuttal, I mean this, this begins and ends
with Patrick Mahomes right, Like that's that's what people are
expecting me to say. But really this comes down to
Rashid Rice Worm. You talked about Juju being the closest
thing that we've scene to amassing bit stepping up next
to Kelsey. I think for Shee Rice was drafted to
be Juju's replacement in the sense that I think that
(42:08):
he if you look at his career at SMU last
year all outside the year before that slot player and
he excels. The guy's been top five, top ten in
yards per route run against zone coverage. I think that
he has a path to take over that Juju role
and be a full time player from day one. And again,
(42:28):
if we're gonna make a bet for a wide receiver
one to come out of a class, I'm betting on
not only that player, but I'm betting on the offensive
system and that environment and the touchdown expectations that are
tied to it. So hell yeah, I'm gonna bet on
Kansas City.
Speaker 4 (42:44):
Let's go deep, bro Andy Andy Reid laid down a
bear trap for you that took the form of more.
Speaker 3 (42:51):
You walked right into it.
Speaker 4 (42:52):
The trap mangled your leg, and now you're ready to
walk right into the same.
Speaker 5 (42:58):
I got one leg, babe, I got one leg left,
and if I gotta hop into this, I'm gonna hop.
Don't care.
Speaker 2 (43:04):
I'm excited to go back a year from now and
look and see who was right because we threw out
a lot of names, and I think there's a lot
of potential here with the guys who threw out.
Speaker 1 (43:12):
That is gonna wrap it up for us today.
Speaker 2 (43:14):
Great show as always, Please everybody remember to check out
our Dynasty Draftkit and our Best Ball Draftkit, which is
brought to you by Underdog Fantasy Forfeits and Debro.
Speaker 1 (43:23):
I am Ryan Warmley. We'll see you guys again soon.
Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Football Podcast.
Speaker 2 (43:28):
Follow us on Twitter and Instagram at Fantasy Pros, and
subscribe to our YouTube channel at YouTube dot com slash
Fantasy Pros.
Hosts And Creators
Andrew Erickson
Joe Pisapia
Derek Brown
Thor Nystrom
Ryan Wormeli
Pat Fitzmaurice
Matthew Freedman
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