Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Hello everybody, Welcome into the Fantasy Pros Football Podcast. I'm
Ryan Warmley, joined for this short form video by Pat
fitz Morris and by Jake Seey of the Athletic Guys.
We are talking boom or bust running backs. Quick reminder
before we jump in this month, if you want a
chance to win a signed George Pickens Steelers jersey for
free courtesy of our friends at Christianeauction dot com, all
(00:21):
you have to do is subscribe to the Fantasy Pros
YouTube channel right now, drop a comment below on any video,
and that is it. We will be announcing a winner
right here on the channel, so make sure to turn
on those notifications so you can know when new videos
are up and to claim your prize. Yes, we know
it's just the jersey we have. I know he's out
of the Steelers anymore. It is what it is. Try
and win it. You get it for free, so that's
still pretty cool. George Pickens Steelers jersey. All right, guys,
(00:44):
we've got a couple of running backs each just talking
to Boomer Bus guys and if we're interested in them
or not, this season fits. We'll start off with you.
Who's your first Boomer bust running back.
Speaker 2 (00:54):
It's the ultimate boomer bust running back worm. It's Christian McCaffrey,
who was the consensus in twenty twenty four fantasy drafts
and was a Hindenberg level disaster for whoever took him.
The risk is obvious, like he played four games last year.
Over his ten year career, there have been four seasons
where McCaffrey played seven or fewer games, and now he's
(01:15):
twenty nine years old. But the potential rewards are so
great with McCaffrey. He is two years removed from having
more than two thousand yards from scrimmage in twenty one touchdowns.
He's in a Kyle Shanahan offense, and Shanahan has shown
up proclivity to feed him tons of targets, tons of carries.
(01:36):
If McCaffrey is healthy, he is going to smash. But
I think your willingness or unwillingness to draft CMC should
probably depend on where you are in your league's food chain.
Like if you're a shark swimming with fish, do you
really want to risk a first round pick on a
player with such a checkered medical history? But if your
league is teaming with sharks, like it might be worth
the risk to you because a healthy season out of
(01:57):
McCaffrey would give you a spear gun to deal with
those sharks. You know, So I almost see I would.
Speaker 1 (02:03):
See it differently. Fits on that philosophical point. I feel like,
if I consider myself to be the shark in this scenario,
I'm more willing to take on the risk because I
have a lot more faith that I will make up
for it if it doesn't work out later on in
the drafted on the waiver wire.
Speaker 2 (02:18):
I guess, but that would be like a you know,
not having a dorsal fin to swim around and hunt
fish with worms, So that would be a pretty big disadvantage.
But I don't know. For me, he's a boom. He's
my RB five. I initially had him lower in my
rankings this offseason, but I have moved him up just
knowing what the potential reward is with McCaffrey.
Speaker 1 (02:37):
Yeah, Jake Cardy get more of a boomer bust than
the last two seasons RB one, RB seventy two.
Speaker 3 (02:42):
Yeah, pretty much. And I think I thought Fitts was
going to say, because he'd been doing shows with me
that he moved him up because I have Christian McCaffrey
at RB four. I've had him at RB four. I'm
going to keep him at RB four. The crazy thing
is even pulling back the season two years ago that
fits is talking about three hundred and forty almost I
think it was three thirty nine and touches. Even if
you pull that back to about three twenty over seventeen games.
(03:02):
That was in sixteen games, which I did my projections.
I'm like, all right, you know, maybe he's still Christian McCaffrey.
But Shanahan says, all right, I just don't need to
kill him. Maybe I'll pull back five percent, ten percent.
He still checks in projections wise as guess what RB one,
just because he's Christian McCaffrey on a per touch basis,
which is pulled back from two years ago, on the
(03:23):
touchdown rate, which is pulled back from two years ago.
Like I pulled all those numbers back, and he still
checks in with a gap over Gibbs at number two
in projections. Again, I'm not taking him there. I'm still
taking bijon Barkley and Gibbs. But the upside is enormous,
and the upside is RB one if he even plays
sixteen games so so.
Speaker 1 (03:43):
Top five running back? You just quickly because we obviously
this is a shorter episode. Is he a first round
pick for you? Then, Jake?
Speaker 3 (03:49):
Back end of the first round? Every single time.
Speaker 1 (03:51):
Back back in of the first fits? Is he a
first round pick for you too? Or trying to wait
till the second.
Speaker 2 (03:55):
Yeah, I mean I love to wait till the second
but he's right around that one two turn for me.
Speaker 1 (04:00):
Okay, let's go to the next running back here, Jake,
who you got?
Speaker 3 (04:03):
Yeah, I'm gonna go Ashton Genty just because I think
that we all know the workload should be similar to
Christian McCaffrey. We're talking about somebody who should walk into
a workload like Bjeon Robinson. But I think Bjon Robinson
is a good litmus test for the risk of a
rookie running back and what we think should be a
fine situation and what we think should be bell cow
issuous work and that yes, he had Tyler Algier and
(04:26):
I don't think anybody on the Raiders is of the
Tyler Algier ilk. But that being said is my bigger
concern for Genty is as great as he is as
a pass catcher, is how much does he see in
the passing game. You're talking about brock Bauers, Jacoby Myers,
Jack Besh, there's early talk about Thornton and all the rest.
There's just a lot of options here from Geno where
I don't know that Gent walks into rookie sixty seventy targets.
(04:50):
And also we have to acknowledge the schedule, Like the
schedule gets overrated, but you do have to acknowledge it
a little bit. For running back specifically, it is one
of the tougher on paper schedules. Mostly facing the Chiefs
twice in a year is going to be a big
death knelt to a lot of running backs, as we
saw last year. But I just think that Genty for
what he is. I'm excited as anybody else is. He's
(05:12):
one of the best running backs to come out since Sparkley,
since Ezekiel Elliott, and that should be the potential for him.
But I think that he is more of a back
end RB one for me than mid first round, where
like a lot of people want to take him, And honestly,
I would still take a few running backs this year,
including Jacob's workload, Derrick Henry, even a chan in the conversation,
(05:34):
and then I would think about gent Kinn in the
conversation with like a Bucky Irvy and Chase Brown.
Speaker 1 (05:39):
Fits. What's the non injury downside to genty this year?
Speaker 2 (05:45):
Boy, I don't know that there is one. I'm a
firm believer in the talent. I think the line is
good enough. I think you know, it's a Pete Carroll
coach team. And chip Kelly has always like had a
balanced offense. What I love is that tchip Kelly has
always run his offense at a breakneck pace, so like
he is going to operate quickly. That's going to be
(06:06):
more plays per game for the Raiders. It's going to
be mean like an advantage at the margins with Gent
Who's gonna get more touches out of that? Like, I
think he's really good. And uh oh, by the way, Jake,
that you know two games for the Raiders against the Chiefs.
One is in week eighteen. Yeah, so you only really
have to worry about watch.
Speaker 1 (06:25):
Everybody can join our Fantasy Pros Discord community and chat
with other fans and get access to exclusive amas that
wind up on our podcast feed. Here's our current schedule.
Myself in fits at five Eastern on the first Tuesday
of every month, then Bogs and Fits on five Eastern
on the third Tuesday of each month. Come get your
questions answered and be on the show. That's at fantasypros
(06:46):
dot com slash Chat to join our Fantasy Pros Discord community. Fits.
Who's your second running back? Here?
Speaker 2 (06:53):
Isaiah Piccheco, who fractured his fibular early last season. He
was back two and a half months later, but upon
his return, he just was not the same guy. He
couldn't take the lead running back job away from Kareem Hunt.
And there's no way Pachecko was anything close to one
hundred percent after he came back from a broken leg
(07:14):
in under three months. This is a guy who was
being drafted in the mid to late second round last
year and now you can get him in the seventh
or eighth and in a backfield that includes Kareem Hunt,
Elijah Mitchell, Bershard Smith. I still think Pachecko is probably
the best running back the Chiefs have, and the Kansas
City offense is going to be somewhere from good to great.
(07:38):
Pachecko's two seasons removed from being a high end RB
two in Fantasy points per game and now you can
draft him as a mid range RB three. So for me,
he's I know about a giant boom, but he's a
small boom for me.
Speaker 1 (07:53):
Yeah, I had Pichecko so high last year. He's definitely in.
I think he's inside like my top six running backs
going this season, which WHI is I'm like afraid to
go back and look and see exactly where I had him,
But I was really excited about him. Was it you
Fits or somebody on a recent show that poised the
question of if he hadn't come back at the end
of the year, where would he be ranking him if
(08:14):
he just he got hurt and he missed the year.
But now it's been a year since he came back,
and we're all kind of assuming something closer, like we
hadn't seen him come back at a full strength. I
forget who. It wasn't mentioned on his show, but I
thought it was a great point. Yeah.
Speaker 2 (08:25):
I did not pose that hypothetical question, but it's a
really good one. He would be drafted much higher than
he is now.
Speaker 1 (08:30):
Yeah, Jake, what do you think about Pacheco? Yeah?
Speaker 3 (08:32):
I think that's the biggest concern is what is his health?
As in his health post injury, like, is he the
Pachecko we knew? Is he the Pacheco? Now? Is he
looking at the fact that is he gonna be anything
in the passing game? And that's why bring up Brishard
Smith as a light late round flier and a lot
of these shows, mostly because we've seen the Jack McKinnon
on this team top twenty value like, they're not only
(08:54):
afraid to use the running back out of the backfield,
they will use the pass catching running back of that
ILK when they have some talent to even run at
the goal line. So is Picheko going to get all
that work on top of the kreem Hunt situation? So
I think the upside is if he gets sixty five
percent of the workload on the Chiefs, the rushing touchdown
potential obviously probably back inside the top twenty. But the
(09:16):
risk is this is a complete committee and I don't
mean time shares in two pieces. I mean committee is
and there's a third piece involved, and then it's this
is all hell breaks, lose.
Speaker 1 (09:25):
Last player here, Jako you got.
Speaker 3 (09:28):
Yeah, this one's interesting to me. I think that this
risk needs to be baked into his costs more. And
I don't even mean the potential trade for bris Hole.
I just think bris Hole on the Jets is a
risk in and of himself talked about it. Last year.
They drafted two running backs with plenty of talent. I
thought Isaiah Davis was one of the bigger sleepers in
last year's draft class. And this is somebody who just
(09:48):
finished being RB eighteen. You add Justin Fields and if
you look at Justin Fields his best and I put
that un quote best season and a half season in
two thirds with the Bears. I'm not saying they're gonna
copy the Bears, but you look at the usage in
the backfield and you're hoping somebody gets touchdowns because some
of that was split. But I don't think that we're
(10:09):
gonna see Brice Hall get seventy percent of this workload
if he still is on the Jets. And then on
top of that, is he the goal line option or
is it Braylan Allen? And then you look at that
because Justin Fields is going to if he plays a
full season, he's going to run for seven eight nine touchdowns.
He's not as low as Lamar Jackson. He's not as
high as Josh Allen in the rushing touchdown department. He's
right in that middle range, but those are touchdowns to
(10:31):
potentially take away and what has seemed to seem to
work next to Justin Fields has been kind of more
of that thumper when they get to the goal line
to off set Justin Fields. All that being said, Bristol
can be that guy. Bristol can be the clear lead
and get sixty percent of the work, But at RB thirteen,
I have him more as a back end RB two
just because I think there's a lot of bust potential
(10:53):
with this. And again that's even before I bring up
with the potential that he could get traded and at
a time Sarah situation somewhere else that we've all are
soda getting rumors about lately.
Speaker 1 (11:03):
This was one of the names on the short lists
and we were putting together this outline. You guys want
to provide the name, not me, but this is one
of the first names that jumped to mind when I
was thinking about guys that we'd be talking about fits.
What are you doing with all this.
Speaker 2 (11:16):
Year fading for all the reasons Jake said, plus a
few more. One is that new head coach Aaron Glenn
just keeps talking about wanting to have a committee, Like
he's just openly saying he wants to use all three
of us backs, So like, why would we not believe
him in that? Bres Hall just doesn't seem to have
workhorse potential if Aaron Glenn can be taken in face
(11:39):
value The other thing, and Jake touched on this with
justin fields like related to the touchdown count. Like Breshall,
part of the value is his pass catching ability, Like
he's really good at it. He's put up some great
pass catching numbers, but we know that running quarterbacks tend
not to throw to their backs as much as pocket
quarterbacks do. In Austin Field's best season as a passer
(12:02):
twenty twenty two with the Bears, Bears receive Bears running
backs and full backs combined for forty six catches that year,
Like every running back in full back on the team
forty six catches. So I don't see a sixty catch
season in Brece Hall's future in twenty twenty.
Speaker 1 (12:21):
Five, breseealler James Cook this year fits h.
Speaker 2 (12:25):
I think I've got Cook. No, I've got Haul one
spot higher, but I'm not totally solongea.
Speaker 1 (12:31):
How about cook for you? Jake, how about how about
Haller Kien Williams, Kyron Kiren with you. Okay, so right
right in that range, Kiren's RB eleven and ECR.
Speaker 3 (12:43):
If you don't see me smiling, by the way, it's
because I was leaving like that little nugget at the
end and Fits kind of took it. The highest targets
for running back. When he was back, there was forty
targets for running back.
Speaker 1 (12:52):
So there, yeah, that's wild. All right, We'll go ahead
and wrap up there. Thanks everybody for checking out this
shorter video on our Boom or Bust running backs for
Jake and Fitz. I'm Ryan. Thanks for tuning in. We'll
see you next time. Thanks for listening to the Fantasy
Pros Fantasy Football podcast. If you love the show, the
best freeway to support us is by leaving a positive
review on Apple podcasts at Fantasypros dot com, slash review,
(13:16):
or on Spotify. Follow us on x, Instagram and TikTok
at Fantasypros, and subscribe to our YouTube channel at YouTube
dot com slash Fantasypros