LEAGUE WINNERS To Target in 2025 Fantasy Football Drafts (Ep. 1627)

Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Hello, everybody, Welcome into the Fantasy Pros Football Podcast. I'm
Ryan Warmley, joined today by Derek Brown and by Jake Seey.

Speaker 2 (00:07):
From the Athletic Guys.

Speaker 1 (00:08):
We are talking league winners to target in your twenty
twenty five fantasy drafts. We're gonna be looking kind of
throughout the drafts, so we've got a couple of names
at the tops or the anchors or the lead upside
is how we're framing it. Then some of those mid
round breakout guys, and then even some guys going later.
We're kind of classifying that as round nine and beyond
that could take a big leap and really prove to

(00:29):
be those league winners for you. Quick reminder for everybody,
as always, that all of our twenty twenty five consensus
rankings and tiers can be found at fantasypros dot com
slash rankings. We're kind of going based off the you know,
half PPR ECR when we're talking about guys who are early, middle, late,
et cetera.

Speaker 2 (00:46):
Before we dive in, though, Jake, what do you have
going on at the Athletic.

Speaker 3 (00:49):
Draft Kings about to come out?

Speaker 4 (00:50):
You know, because we wait for everybody else to roll
here so you guys a month ago, but we're getting
ours coming out. The projections are already there, as you know.
If you disagree with anything I say, you can change
projections to your scoring system, which I know fancy pros
does as well. But that's what we're here for. You
can use all these tools to make sure you're getting
your drafts right.

Speaker 1 (01:08):
Uh.

Speaker 3 (01:09):
And of course I always did. You can't.

Speaker 4 (01:10):
I'm disappointed you can't see it's the Fresh Prince of
saying air like instead of bell air Like you can't
see the bottom part like it's just say yeah, see
I knew deebrod appreciate it.

Speaker 5 (01:20):
No very nice.

Speaker 1 (01:22):
I know that's Dragon ball Z. I have never seen it,
which is gonna shock.

Speaker 5 (01:27):
So all right, terrible movie takes up and I'll but
come to also.

Speaker 2 (01:31):
Never see the Fresh Prince of bel Air.

Speaker 5 (01:33):
Wow.

Speaker 4 (01:35):
So Debro you also missed that he's never been a
Taco Bell so he has to go to Taco Bell.

Speaker 3 (01:40):
Watch some DBZ Fresh Prince.

Speaker 2 (01:43):
Yeah, Jake fat out the Taco Bell by last episode.
He did it.

Speaker 1 (01:46):
He was messaging me afterwards like you gotta get the
was it the cheesy crunch or cheesia crunch?

Speaker 3 (01:51):
Yeah, with the Darado.

Speaker 5 (01:53):
Actially, he couldn't even recite. That means that he yes,
he's never been.

Speaker 2 (01:57):
Never inside a taco bell, Like I just question.

Speaker 5 (02:00):
Your night life, Like, what were you doing at two
am in college? If you never frequented any taco backgy.

Speaker 4 (02:07):
He was Canadian like Chris Meenie like I just like
that would explain a lot.

Speaker 1 (02:12):
My late night post bar cravings in college were very
pizza heavy. It was whatever the local slice was next
to the bar that was my go to more so
than craving Mexican food.

Speaker 2 (02:24):
But you know, everybody's different.

Speaker 5 (02:28):
Taco's at two am or undefeated.

Speaker 1 (02:30):
I'm sorry, worm, maybe maybe well see it. At this
point I said that it's like, do I even want
to break the streak now? Like I'm not intentionally avoiding it,
But no, now.

Speaker 5 (02:38):
You're intentionally avoiding it.

Speaker 1 (02:40):
Just stated maybe maybe on a team trip, I'll uh,
we'll just doubt it yourself. We're off to our art
to start. Do you real quickly, what do you what
do you have going on here? I mean, just like
kind of personally, what you're working on, any specific articles
or anything.

Speaker 5 (02:52):
Oh dude, We've got a ton of articles. I've got
my top seven quarterbacks that I'm drafting in every format
that just hit the site. The top two hundred is out.
I'm still adding players to that. When it's all said
and done the height of draft season, it's probably gonna
be like about two twenty five to forty players that
are all written up. So I mean that can cover you.
Redraft Dynasty, Bobby whatever, Best Ball, twenty round drafts over

(03:16):
on DraftKings, you're covered, man.

Speaker 3 (03:18):
So may the quarterbacks feels feels feels, Fields, Fields feels.

Speaker 4 (03:21):
And then the other one we're talking about today, that's
the seventh pretty much much.

Speaker 1 (03:26):
Yeah, and by the way, everybody can definitely guess who
the other one is that we're gonna be talking about
today if they've ever watched an episode with the rev before.

Speaker 2 (03:33):
We'll get to that one later.

Speaker 5 (03:34):
Love tell me the players, yeah exactly.

Speaker 1 (03:36):
Let's start off with the acres who have elite upside,
and we're trying to stayway from round one here, so
it's more like kind of that round two and three,
because obviously round one everybody kind of knows you know
the best names there, so do you, bro. Let's start
with you, who is your number one anchor with the
lead upside here in those early rounds.

Speaker 5 (03:50):
Dude, Strake London. I'm willing to take him in the
first round, but you don't have to. He's going to
go somewhere in the second round and all your drafts,
and I think not only do we see the full breakout,
so he's wide receiver thirteen and fantasy points per game.
The dude was top five in targets last year, top
five and target chair he was top twelve and receiving
yards per game and yards per route run. And I

(04:11):
know we've talked about on this previous shows for Fantasy Pros,
just the splits with Michael Pennocks, but this is such
a consolidated passing attack. Drake Lennon is going to be
the clear and unquestioned one in this offense. And if
Pennis can be who we hope he could be, then
Drake Lenon has top three upside wide receiver one overall

(04:32):
upside because of his red zone usage, the target chair,
He's gonna garner in this offense. And we just saw
it with Pinnis Man. I mean he had a thirty
nine percent target chair of Michael Pennocks. Now, I don't
think that keeps up obviously like that would that's ridiculous,
but thirty percent, thirty two percent, that's absolutely possible for
Drake Lonnon this year.

Speaker 1 (04:52):
Steeverra, I can't remember, did I mention we did a
show earlier this week?

Speaker 2 (04:55):
Also?

Speaker 1 (04:55):
Did I tell you that I got Drake London in
the late third in Scott Fish Goal?

Speaker 5 (04:59):
I did too. Thank you third run reversal and thank
you Scott Fitsh for that.

Speaker 1 (05:03):
I knew you'd be you'd be very happy with that. Jake,
When is the right time do you think to go
after Drake London? I mean, he's somebody that if you
look at the Fantasy pros rankings, not the industry rankings,
but specifically our staff rankings, he's like borderline a first
round pick because guys like Eric's and deebro very high
on him.

Speaker 2 (05:18):
I think Debra's right though, like you don't have to.

Speaker 1 (05:20):
Take him the first Really, this is a guy who's
going in the second round in most drafts. He's sixteenth
overall in ECR Wide Receiver nine does that kind of
early to middle part of second rounds?

Speaker 5 (05:30):
On Right to.

Speaker 4 (05:30):
You No and Sneak Preview If you want to check
out the podcast that you and I are going to
do for later. I have my picks by rounds. And
why I say no is because if you want Drake
London in a draft that I'm taking him in, you
better take him eighth because I have him ninth.

Speaker 5 (05:46):
Overall, I am writing it down in flex got it ready.

Speaker 3 (05:52):
I am one hundred percent.

Speaker 4 (05:53):
I'll save some of my nuggets along with what Debro
said there for when we do that episode.

Speaker 3 (05:57):
But I can't agree more. And honestly, you.

Speaker 4 (06:00):
Said, I'll say something that Debro said, we hope Pennox
can be what we hope he can be. I'll take
it one step further. Even if Pennix is only Kirk
Cousins from last year, which was miserable for a full season,
that's still around four thousand yards and twenty two touchdowns,
not a great shakes for us and fantasy for the
quarterback himself. But even at a thirty percent target share,
Drake London is still going to be pushing top ten values.

(06:21):
So honestly, we don't even need him to be great
for this kind of workload to be there, and it's
gonna be Darnold Mooney or Kyle Pitt's probably Mooney as
the two but I mean it's London and then everybody else,
so I couldn't agree with this one anymore.

Speaker 3 (06:33):
I'm taking him late first round.

Speaker 5 (06:35):
Yeah, just for foll clarity, I have him at wide
receiver six. I have him at eleventh overall. Again, you
don't have to take him in the first round.

Speaker 2 (06:41):
But unless you're got a draft of Jake, we.

Speaker 4 (06:45):
Both yeah, we both have him six. I just have
Obviously there's probably a difference in running backs there.

Speaker 5 (06:49):
That's all.

Speaker 1 (06:50):
I want to see you two and Ericson in a
salary cap league together and just see the bidding.

Speaker 2 (06:54):
Good night.

Speaker 5 (06:55):
You're just gonna keep up bidding, just go for broke.

Speaker 4 (06:58):
That's when you get to that one where it's like
you get that renocent Lil forty one, like like I
don't want to do it, but I'm gonna.

Speaker 3 (07:06):
Yeah, did this dude just.

Speaker 5 (07:07):
Help hit me again?

Speaker 1 (07:09):
Well, I know that you guys are gonna agree on
Jake's first player too, because it's a player that Deeper
has been hyping up all off season and Jake only
more recently.

Speaker 4 (07:17):
One hundred percent more recently. And I will admit so
something has changed for a while there. I was out
on Kenneth Walker, and I actually thought Kenneth Walker would
see more of a split with Sharboney from last season
because Sharbone is stepping in from him was pretty damn good.
Let's be honest, like it was no slow. She was
putting up RB one numbers in some of those games
and actually overall in a points per game only with
the Kennth Walker games, he's in the RB one conversation.

Speaker 3 (07:39):
So I'm like, why not go with this? And Kubiak,
I watch you.

Speaker 4 (07:42):
Know last year and granted it was the Saints, but
it was those Actually it's going to tie into another
thing that'll save a bit more for that, but some
of the motions that he uses involves two running backs
in the backfield. All that being said, I hit up
Michael Sean Dugger from the Athletic and I said, look,
I'm speculating here, and you know, I is it going
to be more of a share? Scharmoney looked really good
last year. There's been talk that they're gonna go bell

(08:04):
cal Like, what are you hearing? And he sent me
for words and it was kW nine is Belle cow
So that's that's that's so I'm gonna shift. I trust
Sean Duger, I trust him when he covered with one
of the best cover in the Seahawks, and I immediately
changed the work share and like, if you go to
my projections, like I said, you can change it. I
immediately shifted it to Kenneth Walker, Sharmon Ay Morris a

(08:27):
timeshare piece, and that puts him in the RB one
conversation where you know, I think in the second round,
if he's there and you went wide receiver first, and
maybe you go Bell Cal Bellcott running back and you
just hammer that. But I mean, if you go wide
receiver first and you compare with Kenneth Walker in the
second round, I will take him in the second round now.
And that's from somebody that just three or four weeks
ago and I was getting a lot of hate. I mean,

(08:48):
I will say the hate was all speculative and maybe
they talked to Michael Sean Duger that I didn't yet.
But once I heard that, that's what I needed to hear.
I needed to hear that somebody trust that he's going
to be a belle cow running back in this backfield,
and if so, it's undeniable. Even though I don't like
the fact that he should be better between the tackles.
That's not going to care as much when hey, you
have those explosive runs, which will check in more often

(09:10):
if you're getting twenty touches a game.

Speaker 1 (09:12):
Yeah for me, And that's great to hear, like as
somebody who is like very high kenth Walker and and
I know Dero certainly is too for me, Like if
you're painting a case against him, it's more just like
the miss time being banked up in the any injuries.

Speaker 2 (09:24):
It's not the usage went healthy.

Speaker 1 (09:26):
But if he if he told me he's going to
be healthy the whole season, like I would be very
confident in saying he's going to be a top twelve
running back, like like with more upside even beyond that debro. Again,
I want to let you weigh in because obviously.

Speaker 4 (09:38):
You're yeah, way, because I actually this is how far
I went with him. I pushed him in front of
Chase Brown, James Cook, Kamara.

Speaker 3 (09:42):
He's twel oh, baby, what do you have? Met twelve
right behind I'm an RB ten.

Speaker 5 (09:48):
So I mean we're we're basically handholding Jake. I mean
that's and I'm thinking that he's just going to take
a small step forward because he was RB twelve and
fantasy points per game. So with a more run centric offense,
we saw Walker formed. For everything that everybody said in
the pre draft process, this dude was an elite receiving
back last year. I mean, he was top seven in
first downs per route run, targets per route run, and

(10:11):
receiving yards per game. And so what's changed? If anything,
he might get an even more of a hefty target
share this year considering DK Metcalf's gone, Tyler Lockett's gone, Yeah,
you still got JSN back. What does Cooper Cup have left?
If there's I mean, we've seen the iterations like Cooper
Cup has had a hard time staying on the field
and being effective over the last few seasons. If he

(10:33):
goes down at all, Kenneth Walker is the number two
option in the passing game. So the receiving upside is
what I think kind of gets lost in the conversation
of Walker won, how good he was last year, and
to the upside that he possesses this year. So I'm
with Jake, He's an RB one and yeah, I would
take him in the second round. But the great thing
about it right now is everybody else is kind of
sleeping on him. He's in the thirties. In most drafts,

(10:56):
he'll fall to the fourth round in some spots.

Speaker 1 (10:58):
I was gonna ask you that, Debra, because like Jake
had mentioned, the second round thig are you somebody? It
depends where you're picking early on when you have these
sorts of conversations, like if you have the early second
round pick or a late seaconround pick, that's a different conversation.
Are you, let's say you have a late second round
or are you saying like, I don't want to risk
not getting him in the third, so I want him

(11:19):
so badther that I'm just going to take him the
second Or are you saying like I even recognizing I
could miss out on him, I do think you can
wait till the third.

Speaker 2 (11:26):
How are you approaching that?

Speaker 5 (11:28):
I think depending on a lot of draft rooms. And
this is going to be if you're using Draft Wizard
and you're doing running mocks and you have draft Intel
plugged in, you know how your league is going to draft.
So I think that is a skeleton key to all
of this. But just in a vacuum, I'm willing to
take him in the second if I have to, Like
if I'm in some sharp industry league or something like that.

(11:48):
I know he's not going to come back to me,
that's fine. But getting him in the third right now,
which I think if you're taking him in the third,
you're probably going to be getting him in a ton
of spots if you're playing intent you know, multiple leagues, however,
many leagues. That is so if you take him the third.
But Kenneth Walker is one of the great pieces this
year in the fantasy landscape to where like you can
go early wide receiver in the first two rounds, or

(12:10):
you can go wide receiver and premium tight end, knowing
I can get a Kenneth Walker in the third round
as an RB one with even more upside, like he's
got top five upside this year with that type of usage,
if he stays healthy and he gets the touchdowns and
even just a small jump like not even like I'm
not projecting the Seattle offensive line become a top twelve unit.

(12:32):
Just give me league average blocking lee average. That's it.
He gets that. He's got plenty of meat on the
bone to absolutely crush his ADP. And it's why you
can start your drafts with wide receiver, wide receiver or
wide receiver tight end.

Speaker 1 (12:46):
Well, you mentioned premium tight end there, Debro. Let's go
to your next player here. Who is one of these
premium tight ends?

Speaker 5 (12:52):
I mean yeah, like so like league winners, I mean, anybody,
Like I'm talking about Trey McBride and I understand, like, yes,
he was tight end two. He's a top three tight
end in all formats and drafts and ADP and all
that kind of stuff. But where I think that kind
of with all the hype about Brock Powers. And I'm
not saying that I don't love Brock Powers. I mean
I have him inside my top three tight ends as well,

(13:12):
But with Trey McBride, it comes down to if he
gets the touchdowns with the role that he has in
that offense, he could be a league defining player like
Travis Kelcey first round type of like pick over the
last few years where we're talking about, Okay, this guy
is a difference maker because this is just if you
look at last year, fifteen point six PPR points per game,

(13:33):
he had nineteen point two expected Fantasy points per game.
So just talking about if he to scored the freaking
touchdowns that with his usage led us to believe he
could have done, then We're talking about a guy that,
if you look at it across different positions, would have
been the RB five and the wide receiver three end
points per game. So why I think paying up for
trade McBride is I mean, that is one of the

(13:57):
lynchpins of my draft strategy this year. It's either I'm
I'm going for McBride where I'm waiting on Kittle. I
want one of these premium guys. And it's not to
say I don't like brock Bauers, but I'll take the
discount on Trey McBride every single time because in the offense,
with his role, I mean, this guy was top three
in every single usage and efficiency metric that we care about.
If he gets the touchdowns, this is a guy that

(14:18):
I think were we all could be looking back at
this season and saying, dude, why weren't we drafting Trey
McBride in the first round.

Speaker 1 (14:25):
Jake, you probably heard the same phrase a bunch there
that I did, which is if he scores the touchdowns.
So what I want to ask you is, less, where
do you have him ranked a bunks tight ends? Because
everybody has him in the top three, most people at
least in their rankers on Fantasy Pros have him in
the top two. Obviously, there's several have him number one
along with debro Less. So him versus a guy like

(14:46):
Bauers or Kittle, do you think he is going to
score enough touchdowns just in a vacuum to be worth
that second round pick to get a guy like Trey McBride,
Because right now in ECR he is like a back
end of the second round type of player.

Speaker 2 (14:57):
I think he's like twenty third overall.

Speaker 4 (15:00):
So second round, no, honestly, And I'd be okay with
the third And kind of into your question when you
asked to follow up with the Kenneth Walkers, you know,
I was talking about late second if you want to
go the same thing. If you want to go late
second because you have the eleventh pick and you just
want to make sure the person of the turn doesn't
snipe you, because you were going to take them to
the third and there's no reason not to just take
him right there. So I'm gonna be like, oh, I
can't believe you took them in the second round. If

(15:21):
you took them with the eleventh pick, I just I
have hesitancies about the touchdowns and not anything that Debro
said was wrong. I just look at last year, and
as bad as it was for Marvin Harrison, this is
the stat that just continues to baffle me. Last year
is that, yes, McBride had more red zone targets, but
Marvin Harrison doubled him up in end zone targets eighteen
to nine. And I keep referencing that just to say that,

(15:42):
like we as everybody, like I have trade McBride for
more touchdowns this year. In my projections, I believe he'll
score more, but like we as a collective, the fantasy community,
the fantasy industry, everybody is just like, you should score more,
And like, what if that stays the same? What if
Colin Murray just has eyes. He didn't even have eyes
for Harrison the entire year last year, but one thing
you did have iceworm for us once he got into

(16:04):
the end zone, And like, what if that just stays.
I mean, we're talking about Marvin Harrison was up there
with the Mike Evans of the world and Jamar Chases
of the world for end zone targets. He was top
five in the NFL despite how bad his year was.
And I'm just saying it would be tough to see
a complete shift, and maybe the complete shift is like
a lot of those didn't come down and he does
turn to McBride more. That's what we can hope for.

(16:25):
But that's just why I wouldn't be in the second round.
I think there just needs to be a little bit
more risk that maybe McBride is more than between the twenties.
Like if we're talking running backs, he's the Matt fourte
He's like everything's in between the twenties and tens, and
then all of a sudden they turn elsewhere when they
get into the end zone. That being said, if something shifts,
Debro's not wrong, he can.

Speaker 3 (16:44):
Be the number one tight end.

Speaker 4 (16:46):
My biggest issue overall is that I just think there's
such a slim margin, as you said, with the top
three tight ends, that I'm just taking Kittle two rounds later.

Speaker 3 (16:53):
Anyway.

Speaker 2 (16:53):
Yeah, it's fair, Debra. What would you say the over
under at for his touchdowns?

Speaker 5 (16:57):
Oh?

Speaker 2 (16:58):
Man, I don't know what the office line is, but
what would you said it out? If you go up
to you, I'd say six.

Speaker 5 (17:05):
If I mean, if I'm setting a betting line for him,
I think like five and a half six is probably fair.
And I think I think he can. I think he
can eclipse that.

Speaker 3 (17:13):
I mean with his U verse six point two.

Speaker 5 (17:15):
Yeah exactly, So like I think those are fair lines
considering his usage. But if we do see the regression
hits in a big way, like there's been so many
guys over the years we talked about like can't score
touchdowns until they do, I mean a Lah George Kittle.
Do we all have that conversation previously or even Amara
Sam Brown where it was like they're not scoring touchdowns.

(17:35):
Oh he's he's going to be more like keenan All
and he's not scoring touchdowns than Amina spiked a ton
the last two years. Kittle doesn't score touchdowns and then
he scored eight, six and eleven the last three years.
So I think the touchdowns are I mean we talk
about it every year. They're fluky. So if we just
go with usage and stuff, I think regression is going
to hit. This question is how much.

Speaker 2 (17:54):
Let's go to Jake's next pick here in the early
rounds and Jake, you're apparently a Seahawks super fan.

Speaker 4 (17:59):
Now I am, I'm super fan. I will say this
person I've been on the entire time. It's surprising I
was shocked that it feels like I'm on like this limb.
I get a lot of questions of like why do
you have JSN so high? And I'm like, I didn't
know I was out on this island by myself, Like
I figured everybody was in on JSN. The Smith and
Jim had just broke out last year. And now Cooper

(18:21):
Cup or I mean, yeah, great option is the number two.

Speaker 3 (18:24):
But as Debro said, like how much is left.

Speaker 4 (18:26):
And this is coming from somebody who's been a proponent
of taking Cup at his value because he's basically a
bench option at this point. But all that being said,
I'm gonna go back to the Kubiak thing that I
was talking about before. So watching with the Saints and
watching what he's done in the past, I keep referencing
there was this Yankee formation that he used, which was
two backs, and then he actually it was either two

(18:46):
backs or two tight ends. And what he does he
creates a lot of motion underneath. And what that did
was open a lave Shaheed down deep over the sea
middle of the field and Carr can hit that. And
we all know that Carr got some hate for not
having a great deep ball for the longest time.

Speaker 3 (18:59):
But he was middle of the pack. He was average.
That's all we need.

Speaker 4 (19:02):
And we just watched Sam Donald, despite the end of
the season looking like the ghost Sam Donald where he
couldn't handle pressure anymore. Everything leading up to that was
justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison. Down that stretch were both
jeff Addison included both top five wide receivers until he
hit that really bad stretch at the end of the season.
But all that was is similar usage of what Jefferson

(19:23):
should be with Jackson Smith and Jibb with now with
Donald and in this Kubiak offense. If you go back
and like I said, go watch some of the plays,
he does a lot where he gets space kind of
congested underneath and he breaks either one or two deep.
It's a one wide receiver, sometimes at tight end one
sometimes two tight ends or two wide receivers. But it's
freeing these guys over the seams, over the middle of

(19:44):
the fields.

Speaker 3 (19:44):
And that's Smith and Jibb.

Speaker 4 (19:45):
But because I see a lot of people saying, like,
well he's really great in the slot, what is he outside?

Speaker 3 (19:50):
And I'm not saying he's justin Jefferson.

Speaker 4 (19:52):
But remember when people said the same thing about Justin
Jefferson coming out of college, like, I don't know if
they can play outside, Well, who cares if you're the
elite outside, which Jefferson obviously is, but you can be
used enough in both facets with Smith and Jigoba's talent
that Okay, sometimes he's still out of the slot, but
he's running that big slot seam route downfield, and I
just think that Kubiak is going to be able to
use him the best with Cup being that answer underneath,

(20:15):
or if you saw anything within the past week, if
you haven't drafted Elijah Arroyo in your fourth round yet,
that's the tight end apparently to target, because as soon
as they let to a fant go, everybody's like, but
I jokes aside, Arroyo can open things up as well.
There will be opened up routes and play designs for
Smith and jigg But to not only see what he
saw last year, but even a ten to fifteen jump

(20:38):
in targets, you're gonna see also more production on a
per basis or per reception basis. Of course, assuming Sam
Darnald looks capable for the entire year, which I think
he can. I think he's getting too much hate deeper.

Speaker 2 (20:49):
What do you think? Where do you have jas Enter
ranked at the position.

Speaker 5 (20:52):
I'm below consensus. The only reason is because of some
of the worries about Sam Darneld. But to Jake's point,
if Kubiak dials up, it's kind of the archetype of JSN,
the wide receiver, and if he busts that archetype because
being the low A doc guy really volume of reliant.
The way that Seattle ran their offense last year was
super pass heavy. So I guess the reasons with JSN

(21:15):
that I'm a little bit below consensus is not that
I don't like JSN. I was pounding the table for
him last year. It's that I have some Sam Darnold concerns,
but I don't know how much they're going to dial
back the passing and that. And if JASN doesn't create, like,
if he doesn't change up and he's not just the
low A doc guy, then if the target volume goes down,

(21:35):
his fantasy value is going to go down. But to
Jake's point, if we get the play action downfield shots
with JSN and we do get higher a dot and
he is getting some more deep targets, can he still
pay off? Can he hit the highs that Jake's laying
out here? He absolutely can. Dude's got talent man, so
and then I'm not gonna sit here and shade JSN
a ton there because he is easily the most talented guy.

(21:57):
And one thing when I was riding up the top
two on that kind of surprised me about Cooper Cup
when I got to him was his separation and route
win rate numbers from the perimeter was actually better than
what he did in the slot last year. So I
think we actually could be reading this a little bit
wrong too, where it's like maybe JSN stays inside, Cooper
Cup plays more outside, So Jsn's gonna just get fed too.

(22:20):
There's that out too.

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Speaker 1 (23:45):
All right, guys, let's move towards more of the rounds
four to eight range. We're kind of classifying this the
explosive breakouts deeper will start with you here, and you're
going with another receiver.

Speaker 5 (23:56):
All in on Tetoro McMillan. I'm not the high highest
person at Fantasy pros ECR on him, but I'm close.
I bumped him up to wide receiver seventeen. I love
this player. I think that he has alpha breakout upside,
and I think, what's kind of get lost one. I
think people being so down on this last wide receiver
class and then shading tet every single way that they

(24:18):
possibly could. Oh he's too slow. Oh he's not going
to get drafted top ten. Oh he's not too slow.
He did run fast enough, and he did go top ten.
And now he goes to Caroline and everybody's like, oh,
oh it's Carolina, dude. He's going to be the unquestioned
wide receiver one there. And looking at his profile, he
can get deep, he can perform after the catch and
he's big enough to be a red zone target. And

(24:39):
when we saw Bryce Shung performing extremely well so week
twelve through eighteen, this offense was thirteenth the neutral passing rate,
and I brought this up on a previous show. I
think it's the touchdown upside. And I've already bet the
over for his receiving touchdowns over betting pros. His line
is too low and he has massive touchdown equity in
this offense if they do what they did last year,

(25:01):
because Carolina was quietly fourth in red zone passing rate,
top twelve once they got inside the ten yard line.
So tedor Roe mayvilland quietly has double digit touchdown upside.
And if he does that, he gets the target volume
that we saw last year Adam DeLand got fed Deontay
Johnson before him got fed. If we see that same
type of volume for Tet this year, he's going to

(25:23):
blow expectations out of the water and he's going to
be a top twenty to maybe fifteen. Maybe he's flirting
with wide receiver one production this year in this offense.

Speaker 1 (25:32):
Yeah, we talked earlier this week Debro how Bryce Young
doesn't need to take a step forward for the Tet
to be really valuable. He just needs to do what
he was in the second half of last season, and
like there are some people who are who are kind
of baking in like, well, now we'll get a full
season of it. Maybe he does take a step forward
that doesn't need to happen. If he is just too
he was in the second half of last year, then

(25:53):
Tet will get I think enough work to be a
really screaming value. Jake, this is a guy that, like
I I've talked about a lot, Like I said with
deebro somebody who I think is like very likely going
to be going higher in drafts next year than he
is this year. And I like to target those guys
who I think this is the cheapest year going to
get them, and those kind of early top ten rookie
receivers scar guys that that tends to apply to.

Speaker 2 (26:16):
I'm really excited about Ted this year. What do you
think about him?

Speaker 4 (26:19):
Yeah, it's weird because I'm getting a lot of hate
for being one of the highest on Bryce Young and
then at the same time, conversely, I'm actually one of
the lowest on Tet McMillan.

Speaker 3 (26:28):
And it's not.

Speaker 4 (26:28):
Because I don't like tet McMillan. We know, I said
on the show, I'm pretty sure was it with Dee
Broers with Bogs after the draft and I said, we
got tired And remember it was Ted McMillan, tedy Ron
McGill best wide receiver, best wide receiver, best wide receiver,
He's gonna be a top ten pick, and the draft
rolls around there, but everybody's.

Speaker 3 (26:43):
Like, Eh, well, maybe he's not this and maybe he's
like we got tired of talking about it. Who you get?

Speaker 4 (26:48):
You see this every single year with a player too
in the NFL draft, And so I'm presenting all of
that say is like, I'm team McMillan, I'm team Bryce Young.
My concern is I'm also team concerned, and it's too
the one I don't disagree that Bryce Young has to
get better for McMillan to have a great season. I
think that it would have to be a very heavy
target share because I'm concerned that even the better Bryce

(27:09):
Young that we saw, you're still only getting nine ten
yards per completion, not even the a diet Like, so
you're going to talk about the fact that what if
it's the same Bryce Young who keeps a little bit
short into his game, doesn't make as many of the
big plays. He's made some big throws down the end
of the stretch, which was better. He's extended plays like
he did Obama. But just what over the course of
the entire season, because that's where I fall into. Is

(27:31):
that similar to Debro's point about JSN. I think that
could limit McMillan and the fact that everything shorter than
it could.

Speaker 3 (27:38):
Be with McMillan's skill set. It could be with Bryce Young.
And then you have the fact of there's a lot
of options on this team.

Speaker 4 (27:44):
Now nobody holds a candle McMillan feeling at this point
of his career league get all the rest.

Speaker 3 (27:50):
I just don't know that.

Speaker 4 (27:50):
His target share is also going to be approaching twenty
seven to twenty eight twenty nine percent.

Speaker 3 (27:54):
Which it should.

Speaker 4 (27:55):
It's just there's enough concerns for me that I have
him in a very giant tier. I go from Chris
o'lovey at wide receiver twenty five to Travis Hunter at
wide receiver thirty five. He's in that tier with Davonta
Smith and Waddell and Jennians and Jude Like take any
of those names. It's just some of those names in
front of them, like Smith and Jamison, Like I know
they're the twos, but I know who they are. I

(28:17):
know who Chris al Lovey could be even with a
bad quarterback similar situation. Honestly, h Jalen Wattle if he
can stay healthy. So like, there's a lot of ifs
in this range. And if you want to put make
meal on at the top of the tier, I'm not
gonna come for.

Speaker 3 (28:29):
You, because that's why it's a big tier.

Speaker 4 (28:31):
It's just I'm more on the backside of it, just
because I think he's got a few more questions than
the other receivers. But I do one hundred percent agree
with you guys on one thing. Next year, would not
be shocked if we're talking about him as a top
fifteen twenty wide receiver.

Speaker 1 (28:43):
Dee bro I'm honestly disappointed that you didn't make yourself
the highest on him.

Speaker 3 (28:47):
Because you still don't move him on right now.

Speaker 1 (28:51):
I bumped expert who has been wide receiver sixteen. You
couldn't get there. You can only get to seventeen.

Speaker 2 (28:56):
I mean, you know.

Speaker 1 (28:59):
One the aggressive, you know, full of conviction rancor that
I thought you were, and it's just I.

Speaker 5 (29:05):
Know, Sham.

Speaker 3 (29:06):
I will say one thing too.

Speaker 4 (29:08):
You go back to Bryce Young, I only haven't thrown
for twenty four touchdowns if he throws twenty six and
both of those go to McMillan with how narrow that
tier is. And you guys know this fifteen points is
going to jump you ten to twelve spots.

Speaker 3 (29:20):
At wide receiver.

Speaker 4 (29:21):
Just that it's a very minute margin for these twenty
to thirties wide receivers anyway.

Speaker 5 (29:26):
Difference between wide receiver twenty four and wide receivers sixteen
or fifteen probably, Yeah, easily.

Speaker 1 (29:32):
Jake, you have got a tight end of your own.
We already talked about Trey McBride earlier in the episode.

Speaker 2 (29:36):
Who do you have here?

Speaker 4 (29:38):
Yeah, I said his name George Kittle. Here's I'm gonna
reference something. So over the past six seasons, tight ends
that have finished with more fancy points per game than
Kittle did last year Travis Kelsey, Travis Kelsey, Travis Kelcey,
Darren Waller, and Mark Andrews. It's only happened five times.
Kelsey for three of those was over like sixteen. But

(29:58):
point being is that Kittle would have been the number one.
A lot of seasons and even going back before that,
there's a lot of seasons even go before once you
get post Gronk, a lot of seasons where thirteen points
per game gets you to be the tight end one.

Speaker 3 (30:10):
And I only reference that to say.

Speaker 4 (30:11):
I only need Kittle to do what he just did
last year, and he's arguably number two. As Deebro and
you you were talking about before, is like, if you
want to take McBride's second, no problem with it. If
you want to take Kittle, no problem. And the reason
I say Kittle is because we're all focused on can
Jennings be the guy who was last year with a
yuk out? And even so when he was, he was
still only a fringe wide receiver too, a lot weighted

(30:33):
into that one game. Now, mind you, this is somebody
I just mentioned. I have Jennings in that tier. I
have Jennings as a top thirty wide receiver. I think
Piercel's a great pick, even with the what's going on
with his injury right now. But I think we're all
trying to figure this out. What's the wide receiver is
going to be and what is it going to be
when IU comes back? And the answer just continues to
stare us in the face. It's Kittle, Like, why are

(30:53):
we trying to figure all this out when we just
know what it is? And if he does what he
did last year, he's number one, number two, and if
he even approves just a little bit, because all these
questions at a wide receiver, we're talking about somebody who
could be putting up a near Kelsey like season at
fifteen sixteen points per game, and you're getting him in
the fourth or fifth round. You don't have to pay
the Bowers of McBride price. So I can one hundred

(31:15):
percent agree with debro on the Bowers and McBride's and
all that to but I'll just, like I said, I'll
just wait til the end of the fourth round or
the fifth round and just take the guy who I
think is gonna be nipping at their heels anyway.

Speaker 1 (31:26):
Yeah, deebra, I know that, like you are targeting McBride earlier,
but you are also equally high on Kittle where he's going.

Speaker 5 (31:34):
And the way that I keep phrasing this to people
is just I mean, it's it's as easy as this
last year's tight end one and fantasy points per game
is getting drafted as the tight end three. But why
and for every point that Jake pointed out, like and
just clarity, I have Trey McBride as my tight end one,
I have George Kittle and not Brock Bowers as my

(31:56):
tight end two. And again just I know we're splitting
with all those guys, but like Kittle is the best
reason why not to draft McBride and Bowers for everything
Jake laid out, and yeah, if you just like one
hundred foot view of this offense, if you were to
say there's a questionable first round, former first round pickup
wide receiver that's now banged up in training camp, if

(32:17):
he doesn't take a step forward, if the twenty seven
year old fourth year breakout doesn't continue doing what he
did last year, if the guy coming off of torn
acl is out even longer, not effective, then all roads
point back to George Kittle absolutely smashing this year.

Speaker 1 (32:32):
I want to clarify though, like, you are not that
low on Bowers. I'm looking at your rankings. Yeah, I
think unless this up, they're all in the top twenty
for you. Yeah, it's just that you are higher on
McBride and Kittle. You're not actually low on Bowers, be in.

Speaker 3 (32:47):
A stupid face.

Speaker 5 (32:49):
I mean, yeah, it's some people can you say, They're like,
you don't have Bowers at one, And I'm like, dude,
I am big into paying up for elite tight end.
Getting one of these top three guys this year. I
think it's one of the ways that you're gonna win
a league. But because there is such a chasm between
the top three and everybody else. But I mean, will
we all be surprised? I mean, we all did all

(33:10):
of this last year with Sam Laporta. Will we all
be shocked if Brock Bauers is not tight end one
this year and he's tight end three year, he's tight
end four. I mean, come on, man, Like how long
have people moved playing fantasy like that?

Speaker 3 (33:21):
You know Smith gets hurt in week four?

Speaker 5 (33:23):
This variability with all of this for Bowers hasn't make
bride type of year and he doesn't get the touchdowns,
but he gets a ton of all use are.

Speaker 1 (33:30):
You deeper interested in like a bully tight end approach
and trying to get two of these guys earlier?

Speaker 2 (33:35):
Or if you get one you're happy with that.

Speaker 5 (33:37):
I'm just going one. I'm totally happy with it.

Speaker 4 (33:39):
In that case, I'd rather have a second flex, like
just because I don't I don't want to tie myself
into something.

Speaker 5 (33:45):
Tight end premium format or something.

Speaker 4 (33:47):
Yeah, because like that that the bully tight end, Like
because then what what it forces you to do is
you basically have to ignore a screaming value potentially in
your draft. Like there's gonna be somebody that falls to
around seven, You're like, well, I have no I have
to put him to my bench potentially because you might
already have two running backs or three wide receivers and
then you've got your flexs already tied up. So that's
the only reason I don't love it is just because
you kind of handcuff yourself of your options later on.

Speaker 5 (34:09):
Well, and the other thing is like if you were
to look at it cross positionally, like depending on how
your draft is flowing and what your team looks like,
I don't hate it in that that aspect, but you're
gonna have to like you're stacking up apples to apples
and apples to orange, like you're gonna have to stack
this up and say it would have to make sense
where whatever's left on the board is lesser than what

(34:31):
I think George Kittle can get me, like that sixteen
point per game mark or whatever is basically equivalent that
would have been the wide receiver sixteen last year or
that whatever.

Speaker 4 (34:40):
That's the thing is, even if they're approaching fourteen, you're
still talking about yeah, a mid high wide receiver two,
So you're actually kind of losing one but gaining the
other and you just kind of come out as a
net neutral in the end.

Speaker 2 (34:53):
Yeah, agreed, Deever, who's your next player?

Speaker 5 (34:57):
Oh, next guy I got to talk about here has
got to be Caleb Johnson. I mean, just the volume,
the talent, the offensive system, all of it's lining up.
It just depends on if people are willing to listen
to what the Steelers are trying to tell us. I mean,
and I have been one of the biggest Jalen Warren
stands of the previous few years. But the Steelers have

(35:18):
tried to tell us year after year after year after
year they like Jalen Warren in the role that he
operates in and he's not going to be a three
hundred touch guy. It it comes down to are we
willing to listen to what they keep telling us every
single year with him versus nagieris And now for a
team that did not have a second round draft pick.
They go out and then there are the other positions

(35:39):
they could have addressed in the draft in the third round,
and they go out and get a running back. I mean,
we've seen how many times walking into the NFL draft,
a team either signs a guy that they're comfortable with
running out there as they're starting running back if they
don't get somebody in the draft, and then it's almost
like a precursor, a signal that yes, we're probably going
to draft a running back, and the team goes out

(36:00):
does that, and then we see fantasy landscape doesn't shift
quickly enough to understand how the backfield's probably gonna lay out.
I mean, we saw it with Kenneth Walker. We've seen
it with all other types of guys that have been drafted.
And I'm not saying like we can quipple over third
round equity and stuff, but in a deep running back class,
that was the second pick for this team, I'm all
in on Caleb Johnson. Man like Najie Harris, soaked up

(36:22):
two hundred and ninety nine touches last year. It was
tenth most amongst running backs. Even if you nerf that
for Caleb Johnson and say, Okay, they're gonna pass more
because Aaron Rodgers is there and they're not rolling out
Russell Wilson. Yeah, fine, two point fifty is still going
to put him near the top twenty amongst running backs.
And that might be a conservative number considering what I've

(36:43):
been talking about. And then you say the Naji Harris roll.
But we actually have a running back that can break
off big plays. Why are we not excited about that?
Why is Caleb Johnson not a top twenty, not a
top twenty four running back that type of volume, that
type of talent for a player there was top fifteen
in breakaway percentage yards are to contact for attempt and

(37:04):
elusive rating on a team that we know, even with Rogers,
the Steelers are going to run the ball this year.
With that defense, They're already going to be in positive
game strips all the time to salt away the clock.
Caleb Johnson, I mean you were talking about league winners.
He could be carrying people to championships down the back
half of the season.

Speaker 1 (37:24):
Jake, I feel like we've talked a lot about rookie
running backs on shows together. I don't know how much
you've talked about Caleb Johnson specifically, though I think we've
been more focused on guys like Henderson or early on
guys like gent. I don't know that Caleble Johnson has
come up a ton where are you at?

Speaker 3 (37:37):
On him?

Speaker 4 (37:38):
So I was replaying a gift from the office in
my head, and I don't want to do it too
loud because the dogs are over here, but I just
wanted to go thank you the podcast that you and
I haven't talked where this name has come up. I've
been saying the exact same thing that Debro has been saying.
Is like I kept comparing it to Lamar Miller, where

(37:59):
you know Fanny, people are like, give him more Miller,
more touches.

Speaker 5 (38:02):
He deserves it.

Speaker 3 (38:02):
Look how good he is, Look how good he is.

Speaker 4 (38:04):
And it wasn't just the fact that they didn't give
it to him. Is that once he finally did get
that opportunity, he was the same Lamar Miller way less efficient.
The Steelers have told us the efficiency for Warren lies
in the role he's in everything, As Debro said, has
pointed to the Steelers saying, we know Warren, this is
what we want Warren to be, nothing else, and that's okay, Like,

(38:27):
not every running back is going to be a lead guy.

Speaker 3 (38:29):
Not every running back is going to be a twenty
touch bell cow. Like, let's just be honest and understand
who he is. And it's fine.

Speaker 4 (38:34):
I know we saw it and got frustrated the fact
that he was better on a per touch basis, whether
objectively or subjectively, than Najre Harris, but they.

Speaker 3 (38:42):
Probably know that.

Speaker 4 (38:43):
Well, if you give him twenty touches, that might go
right out the window. So I'm with him on Caleb Johnson.
I actually have Caleb Johnson in a nice little tier
with like Hampton and Swift and Harvey and Pacheco. He's
inside the top twenty five for me, So I think
that Caleb Johnson is going to step into the Naje
Harris role completely.

Speaker 3 (39:01):
So I agree with him.

Speaker 1 (39:03):
All right, Kike, let's go to your last player kind
of in this round four to eight range.

Speaker 4 (39:07):
So I know this one everybody's going to come for
me on. I am definitely higher on Chrystal Lobvey than
pretty much I see anybody else. And my argument for
Chris Olave is not that I think Shuck is going
to be an amazing quarterback who I still think he's
mispronounced his last name, by the way, it is not
you taught you can't Shua your last name of sha
like do maybe our show? It's not shook stop anyway.

Speaker 5 (39:27):
How do you pronounce farv? Is it favre?

Speaker 3 (39:30):
Favre? Well? How about Chris A. Zuski? Where's where's the
chef in there?

Speaker 5 (39:35):
Mike Tyler I was like, where's the gay? Where's it
coming from? What kind of linguistic backlips are we committing here?

Speaker 4 (39:44):
That's as the English language? Man, well, actually not English,
but anyway, sidebar, Like I look at Chrystal Lovey and
this is what I say, Like, I just need him
to be what Chris A. Lovey has been, and that's
top twenty five back end, top twenty five wide receiver.
But Shook is good enough to get him there. But
the reason I like him is because you can basically

(40:04):
draft them at what is essentially I.

Speaker 3 (40:07):
Think his floor.

Speaker 4 (40:08):
You can draft him as wide receiver twenty eight, still
get him before most people. I have him wide receiver
twenty five or twenty six, depending on the format.

Speaker 3 (40:14):
But the volume is going to be his.

Speaker 4 (40:16):
He can still play downfield, and I know the Shah'd
breakout was exciting for a lot of people, especially for
the Scott Fish Bowl, just because of the format, and
he was going number one in some of those drafts.
But let's not cloud what christal Lavea is and what
Chris alave has done when healthy with or without Derek
Carr at times, like Derek Carr hasn't been perfectly healthy
while he's been there, and he still puts up numbers.
But all I say is like, I don't think Chris

(40:37):
olave is a wide receiver one. I didn't think that
he was when he came out of the draft. For
fantasy purposes. I always thought he was a really nice
wide receiver too. But I think that's why his price
has fallen, is that it's not just the injuries. Is
that people kind of got this mindset after his rookie
season that, oh my god, Chris Alavey's go on the
path to be in a wide receiver one. And I
don't know that the touchdown equity was ever going to

(40:58):
be super high with him, kind of what we seen
so far with Garrett Wilson, which again I say, is okay,
Like what's the big difference between Chris o'love and Garrett Wilson.
There's not much yet. Everybody wants to say Garrett Wilson
top twelve, Justin fields will be fine for him, and
nobody wants to say, still draft Chris Alvey at a
supreme discount with a you know, crappy quarterback situation, but

(41:20):
that's why you're buying him at his basement floor price.

Speaker 1 (41:24):
Debro, You're admittedly no longer a Saints fan, but had
he kill about Chris the lavee here?

Speaker 5 (41:30):
I agree with everything? See what he was talking about here,
I mean and yeah, I mean draw the parallels, man, Like,
what's the difference between a lot of these wide receivers
that are the clear number ones? And I think so
much of the Shaheed stuff last year too was Derek
Carr was was a one well basically a two dimensional
quarterback in the sense that he was either one or
two things. He was either I'm throwing it. I've rarely

(41:52):
seen in the time I've been doing fantasy stuff where
a quarterback has both been top five to ten and
check down rate and top five to ten in deep
ball rate. So it's like either Alvin Kamara or we're
chucking at baby and so like with that, Shaheed was
stretching the field. So that's why you're seeing this close
competition or at least like they're what and what for targets.

(42:14):
I think you're going to see a Lave step forward
way ahead of Shaheed. And this isn't even just coming
off the injury, but the archetype of wide receiver. He
was top twenty four in separation and route win raid
the volume itself. I mean, I've got him at wide
receiver twenty seven right now. So I want to get
exposure to Chris Olave because you're looking at all these
other guys, there's no difference between him and a lot

(42:35):
of other guys like the Garrett Wilson's of the world,
or even if you want to go Calvin Ridley like
where they are the number one in their offense their
volume base. And I'm not saying a Lave is going
to magically like become like a high touchdown guy, just
the archetype of wide receiver. He's probably gonna live in that,
like assuming he says healthy, like, you're probably not going
to see any outliers spots in his career where he

(42:57):
goes for like ten to twelve touchdowns. He's probably going
to live in that five to maybe seven or eight mark,
which is perfectly fine, but the caps is ceiling in fantasy,
but the volume is going to carry him for days.

Speaker 1 (43:10):
Before we get to the rest of the show, I
want to take a quick second to talk to everyone
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fan tracks, the home of fantasy sports. All right, let's
go to kind of the guys that are going round
nine or beyond, probably in your flex spot earlier on,
but could turn into a league winner type of player.

(44:33):
We'll go a little quicker here because obviously there's less
downside the later of your draft.

Speaker 4 (44:37):
I still don't want to pause and let everybody guess
what the next one is for Derek, Like everybody like
you should open it, all right, everybody in the chat
put in here.

Speaker 3 (44:43):
Derek Brown's about to say, Okay, you got it right there.

Speaker 2 (44:47):
You go love it all right, de bro kick us
off here.

Speaker 5 (44:52):
Oh, I'm going to do my best Scott Bogmin impression
right now. And I think Cam's Gadabo is going to
be a league winner looking at where he's going in
drafts and I think this backfield. What has been lost
in the conversation is people are like, oh, it's thunder
and lightning. Oh, this is gonna be a split backfield
based off of what what is Brian day Ball showing

(45:13):
you in his career that he's going to roll out
to running backs in a committee approach? Last year with
the Giants, seven games a running back had at least
a seventy percent snap share. Twelve games, a running back
had at least a sixty five percent snapshare. Devin Singletary
and Tyrone Tracy are both in that sample. You look
at previous seasons, Devin Singletary was the guy. And the

(45:35):
other thing is about the infatuation with day Ball over
multiple stops for this archetype of volume gobbling running back.
Like pop quiz, Guys, do you want to know who
the OC was when Peyton Hillis had his monster season?
Give you a hint. It's Brian Daball. So looking at
this archetype of running back, I think Cam Skataboo is

(45:57):
going to take over this backfield. I think you don't
put more equity behind this running back that you drafted
this year than you did with Tyrone Tracy When you
already had Devin Singletary in that room and a deep
running back class, and you could have gone out and
got a Devin Neil or somebody else later in the draft,
but they didn't. I think this was an indictment on Tracy,

(46:17):
him fumbling away the job and also the shortcomings of
his game. Like he's explosive, he's but he's still raw
as a running back in certain areas. Cam Scataboo, you
know what you're getting. You're getting a guy that can
handle volume. He's really good, if not underrated, on the
passing downs, and he can be the engine of this offense.
Because we don't think that we're going to see a
Russell Wilson led offense for the Giants that's coming out

(46:40):
and throwing forty times a game, especially looking at their schedule.
They're going to run the ball. So I think that
when you look at the Giants backfield, you need to
make a choice. You either are believing that Tyrone Tracy
is going to be one of these guys is going
to be the workhorse. Who are you going with, Scataboo
or Tracy? For me, clearly, Scataboo.

Speaker 2 (47:00):
Jake, what do you think about this?

Speaker 4 (47:01):
Backfield at some point maybe we'll disagree. Actually we kind
of did a little bit earlier on I know, you know,
because you're asking a question we've talked about. I am
team Skataboo. A lot of it comes down to what
Derek said, and you look at last year. Is that
so annoyed with the fumbles that he went back to
Devin Singletary.

Speaker 3 (47:21):
He used great, he.

Speaker 4 (47:21):
Used these admittedly kind of bum weren't running backs just
to get Tracy back off the field and get into
his head. You gotta stop fumbling. And what I said
to you if we caught when we talked about it.
Why I also agree is because I think part of
it is fancy people and even draft or what are
fans of the team whatever, Like we find these players
that a lot of people didn't expect. And I say

(47:42):
that to say, like, I'm not victory lapping by this,
but this is coming from somebody who was higher on
Tracy the most last year, but even so still believing
in Scataboo.

Speaker 3 (47:50):
Is that Tracy surprised people and they're like, oh my gosh,
look at what he can do. He's better than we
thought he could be.

Speaker 4 (47:55):
Immediately, as Debro said, he's still transitioning into running back,
but he had a really nice season. He's explosive ball
blah blah, and look at what he difer for me
in fantasy and then people don't want to let go
and not see what's in front of him. The other
part of it got it from True Media a few
weeks ago. The elusive rating that everybody always wants to
talk about. I'm not coming for Deebro with this. I
know he's not saying that, but everybody's like, Oh, he's
so lusive, He's so elusive. He's so elusive. Do you

(48:16):
want to know what the correlation between elusive and fantasy
production is? Point zero zero three, as in not a yes.
It can be the difference maker to get you on
the field. It can be the difference maker and getting
you better, bigger plays and doing more once your volume
is into the fifteen twenty touch rains. Absolutely, I'm just
saying that has a non factor when it comes to
are you the better fantasy player? So I present that

(48:38):
to say yes, I believe in Scataboo. I also believe
Scataboo is underrated as a passer because everybody's like, oh
my god, he ran a four to seven.

Speaker 3 (48:45):
That's not what Scataboo was.

Speaker 4 (48:46):
How many times have we seen somebody test poorly just
because of other factors going on? And he's still a
really good receiver, if not just as good as Tracy Jake.

Speaker 2 (48:54):
Let's keep the rookies coming with your next pick here.

Speaker 4 (48:57):
Yeah, I'm gonna go to Mathew Golden. And it's not
somebody that I was actually super high on in the draft.
I actually brought up a couple of times saying there's
a conversation to say who the better wide receiver for
that team was. Well, one of those wide receivers doesn't
matter anymore. But that being with Golden is he's stepping
into a role and that's what I like. I don't
think the Packers have a clear number one wide receiver,
including Golden. I think they have a bunch of twos,

(49:18):
a really nice bunch of twos. But the role he's
stepping into is good. God, can we get a Christian,
healthy Christian Watson. Well, we have a healthy Matthew Golden
stepping into this role. And whether and this is why
I say this is whether it's Read or Dobbs, or
we had Wis at times or whatever those are the
answers to be the team's number two. The team number
one should be Golden from day one, and if he

(49:40):
can even step in there, I'm not saying Golden is
going to put up top twenty wide receiver numbers, but
he's going to be playing that Christian Watson role, which
has the touchdown equity, which has the big play equity,
which means I don't need Golden to get ninety receptions
as a rookie to be a top twenty five wide receiver.
If Jordan Love and this team gets back to passing
a little bit more like they like to, they don't
like to be as run heavy as they were last year.

(50:02):
And this is somebody who also still likes Josh Jacobs.
You're gonna see a better season from Jordan Love, who's
a very popular bounce back candidate, and I believe he's
a good value at where he's going for that. But
you're gonna see Golden be able to put up possibly
one thousand yards and five six seven touchdowns, but do
it on sixty sixty five receptions.

Speaker 3 (50:19):
He doesn't need the ninety to do it.

Speaker 4 (50:21):
And that's why he's appealing, because he is the perfect
right now, I would even take him as my third
wide receiver because once I get to my team's wide
receiver three, I'm okay with those Devonte Smiths of the
world and the up and downs because my first two
are carrying my team. I want that potential upside to
get a twenty point game any single week and be like, man,
he helped me take everything home this week. And if
he's your four, I will check that box.

Speaker 3 (50:42):
Every day of the week.

Speaker 1 (50:44):
Deever, where are you at on Golden? I actually forget
where you had him in your pre draft process.

Speaker 5 (50:48):
I was lower on him than a lot of people,
kind of like Jake was talking about just a lot
of them.

Speaker 3 (50:54):
We were both like the lowest on him.

Speaker 5 (50:56):
Yeah, yeah, we were close. I remember us talking pre
draft about him, and it's it's not so much like
the talent and things like with Golden, it's it's I
do agree, like I think people need to be taking
shots in this passing attack. One, they're going to pass more.
This is a similar case as like the Eagles and stuff.
It's like they're going to pass more. And Jordan Love
was injuries crippled him in his effectiveness last year. So

(51:17):
if we get a healthy version of Jordan Love. I mean,
you can look at tons of metrics for the Packers.
The passing rates probably gonna come back. The question is
how much. But even if they're league average, you're gonna
get more volume in this passing attack. So Golden, well,
I'm like taking my shots on this passing attack. I'm
more with Romeo Dobbs just some of the deeper like
separation metrics and things like that. But I agree with

(51:39):
Jake adamantly here that people need to be taking shots
on this passing attack because I was, I was pulling
up ECR here on my other screen. I mean, Matthew
Golden's won twenty seven wide receiver fifty if if I'm
reading this wrong and it's not Dubs and it's Golden,
like Jake is absolutely right here. And the point that
he brings up to as a player, you're gonna draft

(52:00):
any one of these wide receivers from the Packers. You're
drafting him as your wide receiver four in most different options.
So if he does carry that spike week potential, we
always talk about winning from your flex. Yeah, winning from
your wide receiver three spot is also a difference maker two.
So getting a lot of these different guys where you're
taking shots on the rookies and upside at your wide

(52:22):
receiver three four five spots. That's how when we all
flip of the cards and we're at week fourteen or fifteen,
and we're all about to walk into the Fantasy playoffs,
and we're saying, dude, I'm so glad I stacked all
these guys because they're crushing down the back half of
the season. That's one of the bets you're making when
you draft Golden and all these other rookies.

Speaker 2 (52:41):
All right, deb bro, give us your thoughts on JJ
McCarthy episode.

Speaker 5 (52:45):
You buried the lead, Dude, you buried the lead. JJ
McCarthy is going to be a QB one this year,
I'm here to tell people, and he's got upside for
even more freaking Sam Darnold was the QB nine and
fantasy points per game. How many different iterations, how many
different years of the Chaos offense do we have to see?
They're going the quarterback in this offense is going to

(53:07):
throw for four thousand plus passing arts. Sam Donald had
over forty three hundred last year. You look at the
year before that with Kirk Cousins, Josh Dobbs, Nick Mullens
and freaking Jaron Hall. They combined for over forty three
hundred passing yards. And for everybody, it's like, oh, well,
I think Minnesota is going to go more run heavy.
You think Minnesota's going to go more run heavy with
their first round drafted quarterback that is a better player

(53:30):
than Sam Donald. And last year with Sam Darnald, the
Minnesota Vikings were eighth the neutral passing rate and third
and pass rate over expectation. You think that, Okay, have
fun with that thought. I don't believe that at all.
The Vikings have told us who they want to be.
Koc has told us how he wants to run his offense,
and now he's got arguably the best quarterback out of

(53:52):
all of this bunch, including Kirk cousins, including Sam Darnald
under center. This season, with this cast of characters, JJ
McCarthy is going to be a top ten quarter like
I have him as a top ten quarterback in my
ranks right now. This is not hyperbole. This is how
I'm projecting him in this offense. And just to rewind

(54:13):
and be kind to everybody, the type of prospect that
JJ was in his final season in college, he was
top twelve amongst all FBS quarterbacks in passing grade, adjusted
completion rate yards per tenth. I'm not done yet. Adjust
to completion rate on downfill throws, and adjust to completion
rate versus pressure, and he has rushing upside to run

(54:35):
for three to four hundred yards of this year. JJ
can crush this season in fantasy.

Speaker 1 (54:39):
Jake, when you raise your eyebrows at that, were you
kind of reacting to just the general aggressiveness on McCarthy
or specifically Debra saying he has him as a top
ten quarterback.

Speaker 3 (54:51):
The top ten.

Speaker 4 (54:52):
It really like this is one that I don't think
you're gonna find a lot of milk ground this year,
and mostly because it doesn't seem like anybody's like, oh cool,
I could see JJ McCarthy as quarterback seventeen. It's either
your team, Debro, or your teammate. And it's not me
as an I hate JJ McCarthy. I don't hate him.
My concern is that the passing game from him. And

(55:14):
this is what I said about him coming out of college, Like,
I know a lot of people like my negative worst
case scenario, and I don't believe this is gonna happen.
I'm just like, worst case scenario, he's out of the
league and he's Jake Locker. I say this to say,
like some people were also saying similar, I don't think
he's that bad. I actually think as a pastor, I
said he was the NFL version of Trevor Lawrence. Now

(55:34):
that's not necessarily a positive, and that's why I say that,
like Trevor Lawrence doesn't look comfortable yet. We've been talking
about Trevor Lawrence so far to this point of his
career is a bust for what he was supposed to be.

Speaker 5 (55:43):
He is a bust.

Speaker 3 (55:44):
If his career ended today, he'd be one of the
biggest busts in draft history.

Speaker 4 (55:48):
But that's also somebody who's shown inconsistencies from the comfortable
level of leading his passors. And that's the one area
I questioned this game where I don't disagree that Kevin
o'connach can get the best out of it. Kevin connall
gets the best of a lot of people. I said
here on these shows and talked about Jordan Mason as
a nice sleeper because he can get the best out
of this offense. But when I say Lawrence forty one
hundred yards and twenty three twenty four touchdowns. It's a

(56:10):
nice season, but you're gonna need rushing, and I don't
know how much he's gonna run those offense. Just some
questions that I think it's gonna take a little bit
more for him to get the top ten. If you
told me sixteen fifteen, which I think is kind of
the middle ground, I'd be more in. I have him
more down about twenty because I think there's like a
lot of risk here. But I'm ready to be wrong

(56:30):
on this one. I think you're just gonna have to
either be one hundred percent in or you're gonna be
one hundred percent ou, because they don't think you're gonna
really gonna get him as like a decent Value're either
gonna have to be with Debro or with me, and
that means you're getting them or you're not.

Speaker 5 (56:41):
And that could simply come down to just passing touchdown
red like Jake's talking about, like the margin for and
just again transparency be on my ranks quarterback just in general.
And I know Jake, you've talked about this, like all
the pocket Pasterer guys you see in like at the
same like QB nine through eighteen. I haven't one long tier. Yeah,

(57:01):
Like you can dice those guys up and to me,
you pick your your your favorite flavors in that tier.
Like my favorites are JJ McCarthy, Dak Prescott, brock Purdy,
like those types of guys where it's either regression, offensive,
environment scoring, all that kind of stuff. But like if
anybody were to tell me they wanted to make the
same kind of case for Justin Herbert or Drake, may

(57:23):
I understand it. I'm just I'm team JJ.

Speaker 3 (57:25):
I'll give you one on that one.

Speaker 4 (57:26):
I think the ceilings higher for MacCarthy than Herbert. I
don't know, like what the deal with Herbert is, Like
people are just putting it in the Hall of Fame.

Speaker 1 (57:32):
Yeah, I mean to the point you just made about
that tier, de bro like, I will not be drafting
the seventh quarterback off the board, whoever it is. It
just will not happen. I will want to be taking
the tenth or eleventh Macarthury.

Speaker 5 (57:45):
You would never have to do that, even at bullish rooms.
He goes somewhere in that like that mid QB two range,
maybe not QB twenty, but like QB fourteen or fifteen.

Speaker 4 (57:54):
Dude, do you think he'll run a decent amount debro
because I haven't, Like, just to give you an idea.
Why I brought that up is like I have for
two fifty and four on the Like, I actually think
that's set.

Speaker 3 (58:01):
You do you think you could do more than that?

Speaker 4 (58:03):
Because again, I think he's gonna to get top ten,
I think you would have to either throw for like
thirty touchdowns, which again that's my concern is that he's
Trevor Lawrence as a passer right now, yeah, or run
for more like four hundred and six or something like that.

Speaker 5 (58:15):
I think he's probably gonna be in the high threes
for rushing. I could see like four to five rushing scores.
But I think I think where we the big divide
for us is probably just the passing touchdowns touchdowns. Yeah,
and that's that's where I'm at. Like, I think a
healthy TJ. Howkinson, even if Addison misses time, I think
you're gonna see a lot of scheme does like then
Hawk is gonna eat while Addison misses any time, and

(58:36):
it's gonna be more of a condensed offense. But honestly
think we could see one of the best seasons, if
not the best out of Justin Jefferson this year, because
he's one of those guys that's danced around like fantastic.
Like on on Jefferson's resume, he's never had more than
ten receiving touchdowns. He's due and he's had eighteen hundred
yards in one season, but he's never come back to that.

(58:56):
So like, what if all of the stars aligned for
that with JJ McCarthy as well.

Speaker 4 (59:01):
And one more thing, that's why I'm dodging my camera
right now to kind of see I just adjusted my
projections gave him six more touchdowns.

Speaker 3 (59:08):
He goes from QB twenty to QB fourteen, So yeah,
there you.

Speaker 5 (59:11):
Go, Son, and then he's he's right like in that
same kind of range for TB one.

Speaker 1 (59:16):
So yep, all right, we went along on McCarthy, which
I think that looks good.

Speaker 2 (59:21):
Give us quickly your last league winner here going late.

Speaker 4 (59:24):
Well, and that's why it works is because I think
a quick version of this that doesn't need a lot
of explanation. But Trey Benson, who I think has some
similarities to Nick Chubb, and unfortunately that continues to be
some injuries that we've seen for him at this point,
Trey Benson was drafted.

Speaker 3 (59:36):
For a reason. Last year, we were all excited as
one of.

Speaker 4 (59:39):
The premier you saw any site last year, top five
handcuff option.

Speaker 3 (59:43):
Last year.

Speaker 4 (59:43):
James Connor always gets hurt and then not only does
James Connor almost finally play a full season, which by
the way, still hasn't happened for his entire career, but
the second part about being is that Trey Benson gets
hurt and then we just kind of lost a season,
and now it's like, no, we wanted Trey Benson. They're
like why, Like Trey Benson should be in the conversation
with all these other backup options, Like everybody wants to

(01:00:04):
draft Ray Davis in case James Cook was a one thing,
but why is not? Why Why is not the very
good grammar there?

Speaker 3 (01:00:11):
Why are we.

Speaker 4 (01:00:11):
Not talking about Trey Benson with Mason and Algier and all.

Speaker 3 (01:00:17):
These other options.

Speaker 4 (01:00:18):
Where if one thing were to happen to James Connor
and I'm more betting on the fact that the injury
season happens, not the almost fully healthy season. At this
point of his career, Trey Besen should immediately step in
and be top twenty if not better.

Speaker 2 (01:00:29):
Deebro, you were very high on Benson a year ago.
How do you feel now?

Speaker 5 (01:00:33):
I'm still fine with him. I agree with Jake he
should be going in that handcuff here like I've got
him right behind a bunch of other handcuffs, like you can.
I think the conversation for Trey Benson, I mean just
started wherever you starting the handcuffed here, like, I think
that's probably somewhere around like RB thirty seven, RB thirty eight,
and you want to put him at the top of
that tier, have at it totally with it. I mean,

(01:00:55):
because I don't think you're going to see if Trey,
if anything happens to Connor, if Vinson can be the
guy we saw in flashes last year over you know,
given that role and stuff like that, I don't think
you're going to see the team like lean back on
a Mari de Mercado or Michael Carter or anybody like that.
They're gonna give the run to Tray Benson and be like, look, man,
like we get in front of.

Speaker 3 (01:01:16):
THEE, what's up?

Speaker 4 (01:01:19):
I said, I forgot they were still hanging on the
Michael Carter and a lie and I have a Michael
Carter signed many helmet down there, hidden away somewhere, because
I was hoping he could be more than he was.

Speaker 5 (01:01:27):
Michael Carter again earlier in the show, a great shout
out for what we were talking about with guys from
yesteryear that people don't want to let go of.

Speaker 1 (01:01:36):
Yeah, this month, if you want a chance to win
a signed James Cook Bill's jersey for free courtesy of
our friends at Christineauction dot com, all you have to
do is subscribe to the Fantasy Pros YouTube channel right now,
drop a comment below on any video, and that is it.
We will be announcing a winner right here on the channel,
so make sure to turn on those notifications so you
can know when new videos are up and to claim

(01:01:56):
your prize. Guys will wrap up with just an opportunity
to throw out a couple other names you guys are targeting.

Speaker 2 (01:02:00):
Could be early late in drafts.

Speaker 1 (01:02:02):
There's other names that we didn't mention today that you
guys are generally targeting, whether as a league winner or not. Debra,
who stands out to you, I.

Speaker 5 (01:02:09):
Mean I'm going after undervalue guys. I mean I feel
like two of the biggest offenses that are undervalued, and
they're probably both going to be top five, top three
in scoring, or the Eagles and the forty nine ers.
So take your shots on them. Like we talked about Kittle,
but dude, draft a ton of Jwan Jennings if he
is that guy. If Pearsall cannot stay healthy, there's still
a path for him. There's still a path for Ricky Pearsall.

(01:02:31):
DeVonta Smith. People are letting him fall into wide receiver
three territory although he's been a top twenty four wide
receiver in Fantasy points per game in each of the
last three seasons. Dallas Goddard, who has never finished on
a per game basis outside the top twelve over the
last I think it's like five or six seasons even
last year included, is a tight end two in drafts

(01:02:52):
right now. So both those offenses I want to shout out.
But also, like all the rookie guys, Trey Harris, who's
now is in camp, people like, oh, I don't know
if he shows up, and I don't know if he
beats up. Mike Williams, Well, Mike Williams is off of
the retirement home and Trey Harris is in camp. Jayden Higgins,
So like, you need to be taking shots on underrated
offenses and really talented rookies because in so many different seasons,

(01:03:15):
how many different times we have to see this, the
rookies are the ones carrying you two championships in weeks
thirteen through seventeen, usually.

Speaker 2 (01:03:24):
Jake, anybody stand out to you to wrap things up.

Speaker 4 (01:03:26):
I mean, I was going to save those two wide
receivers for after I brought up some running backst just
bring up Trey Harris and I've been lording the Jayden
Higgins upside over these shows, so I'll go back to
running back. And similar to that handcuff situation, I am
befuddled by the fact that Tyler Algier is falling nearly
out of the top fifty running backs. Everybody's oh, be
jeonn Robinson could be the RB one and like, okay,

(01:03:48):
and if he got hurt, We've already seen Tyler Algier
put up RB one numbers before Bejon was even there.
Not that I'm enamored with the Allsier, but I just
do not get why nobody wants to draft him just
on the risk of something happens there. And then I
brought up Ray Davis I'd say that you put Jayden Blue.
I still think people like I'm taking shots at Jvonte Williams,
but if it's not Jontae Williams, I don't think Jayden

(01:04:08):
Blue is going to be I think he's very much
like Jalen Warren. He's not gonna be twenty touches per game,
but he could be the most valuable piece there.

Speaker 3 (01:04:14):
And then my super super super deep one I'll bring
up again.

Speaker 4 (01:04:17):
I know the situation in this team and there should
be a hell of a lot of targets for DK Metcalf.

Speaker 3 (01:04:22):
But I have not given up in.

Speaker 4 (01:04:23):
Roman Wilson yet, mostly because Mike Tommin was a fan
of his enough and put him against Quinyan Mitchell in
the Senior Bowl and then still drafted him in the
third round. I don't think his career is done after
one busted rookie season where he got to play five
plays and got hurt.

Speaker 5 (01:04:36):
Jake. I love that call out of Roman Wilson because
when you hear the conversation of like any of the
wide receivers for the Steelers, Calvin Austin always gets brought up,
and I'm like, you do realize, like Arthur Smith is
in love with twelve and thirteen personnel. That does mean
that if anybody's coming off the field, it's not gonna
be Roman Wilson, it's gonna be Calvin Austin. So just

(01:04:57):
that in itself is I want the guy it's gonna
be starting probably in two wide receiver sets. I don't
see that being Calvin Austin. I don't want it. It's
gonna be Roman Wilson.

Speaker 2 (01:05:08):
All right, we'll go ahead and wrap things up there.

Speaker 1 (01:05:09):
Thanks everybody for tuning in to our league winners to
target in twenty twenty five Drafts four Jake and Debro.

Speaker 2 (01:05:16):
I'm Ryan Warmley. Thanks for tuning in. We'll see you
next time.

Speaker 1 (01:05:19):
Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football podcast.
If you love the show, the best free way to
support us is by leaving a positive review on Apple
podcasts at Fantasypros dot com, slash review or on Spotify.
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Episode Transcript

Hosts And Creators

Andrew Erickson

Joe Pisapia

Derek Brown

Thor Nystrom

Ryan Wormeli

Pat Fitzmaurice

Matthew Freedman

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.css-14f5ked{margin:0;word-break:break-word;display:-webkit-box;-webkit-box-orient:vertical;box-orient:vertical;-webkit-line-clamp:2;overflow:hidden;}LEAGUE WINNERS To Target in 2025 Fantasy Football Drafts (Ep. 1627)