Nico Collins Has TOP-3 UPSIDE!? 12 Wide Receivers with SKY-HIGH Potential! (Ep. 1307)

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Hello everybody, Welcome into the Fantasy Pros Football Podcast. I'm
Ryan Warmley, joined today by Andrew Erickson and by our
guest Jacob Gibbs of CBS Sports. Jacob, we were just
talking before we started recording about how for you, the
busy season has kind of started already. You're already kind
of in the writing day to day grind. Can you
tell everybody what you're doing over with FFT this year?

Speaker 2 (00:21):
Yeah, So for Fantasy Football today, I'm writing their newsletter,
and so what the details are right now is every
weekday I'm putting on a different team preview, doing all
thirty two teams, talking about basically every fantasy relevant player
or anyone who has a chance of being Fantasy relevant,
and then giving like my process behind my projections and
how I get all these different players to different projections,
what range of outcomes they might have. It's been a

(00:44):
lot of work, but I do like feel more ready
than ever for the season, you know, because it's already
like sometimes you deal with the burnout and like not
being quite ready to like write every single day in
those first few weeks just feel so hectic, and it's
like I'm kind of already in it. So, yeah, super
super excited to talk about some guys today.

Speaker 1 (00:58):
Jacob definitely one of the smartest lists out there, So
everybody make sure you're checking out that newsletter. We're talking
today about some wide receivers with massive upside, and we're
going to talk about some of the more proven guys
that we think could maybe take another leap. We're going
to talk about some young, potential breakout wide receivers. Then
also some deeper sleepers that we think could you know,
just add value maybe not are not gonna be wide

(01:19):
receiver ones, but they are gonna be values based on
where they're going. So we're going to dive right in
with those ericson are you also in the in kind
of the same boat as Jacob with the you know,
feeling like you're ramping up already kind of in it
almost close to in season writing routine yet or still
kind of in that preseason you know, just about to
get into draft season here as we are on the

(01:39):
cusp of August.

Speaker 3 (01:41):
Well, something that I have spent doing some time with
is mock drafts on some of these more like CBS
like a Yahoo in ESPN, So getting away from the
best ball streets because you have to reset your brain
a little bit because drafting and best Ball and drafting
in your home league are very two different things, and
I think last year I didn't do enough. I didn't

(02:01):
take that into consideration enough, so I was drafting with
more of a Best Ball mindset, and that really shouldn't
be the case. Like you need to change your approach
depending on what format your league is in. It's super important.
And I was looking at ADPs of these websites and
they're so different than on Best Ball. So I need
to reset and make sure that when I'm speaking to

(02:22):
the audience what I'm talking about in terms of why
I think this player is overvaled at this price, and
I think ultimately prices are going to change in every
single draft you're in. You know, ADP is never going
to be exactly what it is, going to change all
over the place, but your player takes for the most part.
If you're right about a player being really good, then
it probably doesn't matter as much where you actually drafted
them as long as I hit right. And kind of

(02:43):
the same thing with a player hurting you right, Yeah,
Najie Harris being a bust hurts way less if you
draft him in round nine than round five. But if
he loses the job to Jalen Warren regardless, well he
was a bad pick regardless. So that's kind of something
that I'm kind of trying to contect Straws a little
bit more with my mindset as I'm heading into this season,
and I can at least speak from doing previews before
of teams. You feel so great when you look at

(03:04):
each team individually. Going out of that I think gives
a spot on with that you feel so great about it,
you feel super knowledgeble heading into the year.

Speaker 1 (03:11):
I'm pretty sure I've said this on this show before,
but it's one of my favorite notes from Scott Pianowski
at Yahoo is any strategy works if you draft the
right players. Like you can have whatever strategy you want,
as long as you pick the right players, it's probably
gonna work out pretty well. So just get good players
on your team. That's my advice to everybody. Just a
quick reminder for everyone. All of our twenty twenty four
consensus rankings and tiers can be found at fantasypros dot

(03:33):
com slash rankings. Also a quick note, the winner of
trophy smacks I suck at Fantasy football flag is safety
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(03:55):
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(04:16):
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(04:37):
Kit from trophy smack. All right, enough preamble, guys, let's
dive right in. We'll start with the kind of proven
wide receivers with upside. You have a couple of names here,
and Jacob will start with the first guy you want
to talk about.

Speaker 2 (04:48):
It's Nico Collins. So his expert consens us ranking off
Fantasy pros is a wide receiver seventeen. I have n't
wide receiver nine, and I think he legitimately does have
the ability to push into that like top three type
of white receiver spot for fantasy. He's really kind of
a cheat code for fantasy purposes. I think, you know,
he really is a special player. People realize that now
at this point. He had almost thirteen hundred yards last year.

(05:11):
But I want to dive into just like the recipe
behind the stats that we give for Nico Collins, because
it's really unique. So he runs really really deep routes
and then obviously we know he has the quarterback in
the play carler who are willing to attack aggressively on
those deep routes against any kind of defense. And then
he also has the yard draft of the catchability, so

(05:32):
like it's pretty unusual for a player to be running
down the field, also getting targets at a high rate,
and then also creating on their own after that. So
his average route depth last year was ten point four yards.
And if you don't know, if you're not familiar with
average rout death, that is the distance on average from
the line of scrimmage that the initial cut in the
route comes. So on average, Collins was over ten yards

(05:55):
downfield before his initial cut, and he was still able
to draw targets at a really high rate, which I
said is unique. So for reference, over the past ten years,
there have been ninety instances of a wide receiver running
three hundred or more routes and recording a double digit
average route depth. On average, that group drew a target
on seventeen point seven percent of the routes. Generally speaking,

(06:17):
receivers who are running really deep routes don't draw targets
at a high rate. Nico Collins does, like truly in
a unique way, twenty six percent, up from the average
of eighteen That was fourth highest among the ninety qualifiers.
So if you look at the guys up in that range,
it was Chris Alave, who are very excited to get
to that's one of Erickson's guys. The only other person
to do was Justin Jefferson is don at twice. Collins
was fourth, So that is, you know, really the kind

(06:40):
of the recipe we're looking at is like Justin Jefferson
type of volume in terms of like where the targets
are coming down the field and the type of actual
target volume that he's drawing. Jefferson's target Peru runmates have
been twenty six point seven twenty seven point one percent
over the past two seasons. Collins is twenty six, so
they're nearly identical.

Speaker 1 (07:00):
What's so you know, exciting to me about a guy
like Collins is and you already mentioned, we know he
has the quarterback and specifically a quarterback who as a
rookie was so willing to throw deep while also protecting
the ball like he was going down the field and
not committing turnovers. It was really remarkable from Stroud. I mean,
the only real question mark with Collins, at least in

(07:21):
my opinion, is the fact that they added Digs, the
fact that Tank Dell coming back healthy. There's just three
quality wide receivers in this offense. I think he would
be higher than his ECR of wide receiver seventeen if
that Digs trade hadn't been made by ranking him in
the top ten. Though, you're kind of planting your flag
that you're not really that concerned about that trade, right Jacob.

Speaker 2 (07:41):
I'm not actually have for a really interesting note. So
I want to you probably if you guys are you know,
listening to this podcast, you're pretty pluged in. You probably
know about yard pro route run data and the fact
that Nico Collins last year turning to one of the
most insane yard prout run rates we've ever seen. Him
and Brandon i Uke and Tyreek Hill joined a group
of only six or seven players who have averaged over
three years per out run since the time we have

(08:01):
that data, which is like the past ten or fifteen years,
so pretty league company. The note and the reason I
bring this up is because you bring up Digs and
Tank Dell Specifically, when there have been three or more
wide receivers on the field, typically we see yard per
oute run rates decline, which makes sense intuitive that you're
competing for targets with multiple receivers compared to just one receiver.
If there's two receivers on the field. You know what

(08:22):
I'm saying, And so when you look at Brandon and
Iyuk splits his massive yard perro out runner, it actually
shrinks quite a bit when he had three or more
receivers on the field, it was just two yards p
out run, which is still good, but not like up
in that really really elite range. Nico Collins didn't see
his rate drop at all. His ray with three or
more receivers on the field was two point nine, which

(08:42):
for reference, over the past five years, the only players
have been ahead of that is Tyreek Kills then a twice.
Cooper Cup did in his twenty twenty one season. Devonte
Adams did it in his twenty twenty season. So like
that is, it's really like there's nothing there's an offense
that is helping here here obviously the offensive it's infrastructure
is good, but like just from a pure ability to
go out and win regardless of what's happening on the field,

(09:03):
Nico is proven to be elite, and I think Diggs
is going to play an important role, but I think
they're actually going to use him more in the slot,
and if anything, that just creates even more answers than
they had last year and more problems for opposing defenses
to deal with. So I do think the target rate
will drop for Nico this year, almost assuredly with tankdlle

(09:24):
healthy and Stefan Diggs in the picture. But I think
we have a lot of things that could help offset that.
One of them is the fact that the Texans really
were more of a run first leaning team last year,
especially early in the season. First downs, they were running
at a higher than average rate in the reds, and
they're running at a higher than average rate and neutral
situations when the games were close six or points, leading

(09:47):
or trailing, like in that all things equal, this team
was kind of leading on the run game. And it
makes sense that Rickie quarterback. But now they go out
and get digs. During the second year with CJ. Stroud,
if they end up passing a lot more, that creates
a lot more routes and so, like we talked about
this and how amazing Collins was with it. He actually
was only I want to say, like fiftieth in total
routes run last year, and so like, what happens if

(10:09):
that increases in a dramatic way, you know, if they
really do pass a lout look at MVP, CJ. Stroud
is the third most likely to win MVP. That's not
coming on the ground. That production is all coming through
the air. And so if we think that there's a
real chance that that kind of season happens from Stroud,
we're talking about probably like five thousand plus yards passing
and I think so much of that is going to
go to Nico Collins, and I think that's where you

(10:29):
get that wide receiver one upside. And then what if
something happens to Diggs or Tank Dell if either one
of those guys missed time, then we see Nico playing
the role we saw last year with elite target rates
in an offense that's producing way more than it did
last year. Things could really really get out of control
when you get into the projections and the mathematical side
of this is like this could get nuts just because
of how efficient he is, because of the role that
he plays.

Speaker 1 (10:51):
Ericson what do you see as kind of not necessarily
the hierarchy here, but let me rephrase, do you think
Nico Collins is the right wide receiver to pick out
of this receiver core for this topic of kind of
that massive upside?

Speaker 3 (11:04):
I think so, I mean we saw it last year.
He's the one that's played with CJ. Stroud and showed
that massive ceiling. So there's no argument for me about
Nico Collins upside. But the question marks are, Okay, well,
now you're adding a new piece to the offense. How
does that affect Nico Collins? You know, Stefan Diggs as
he washed, what if he's not, what if he's productive?
I mean again, we're gonna get into this, but there's

(11:24):
a reason why I also have a Texas receiver because
like get like Gibbs said, this Texans offense has upside.
This passing game. One of these three Texas receivers, if
not all of them, are all going to be hits.

Speaker 4 (11:36):
And if c J.

Speaker 3 (11:37):
Stroud is as good as he is in wins MVP,
well they all might have massive upside. So that's why
you're pushing your chips in on the system and Nico'collins,
I think is rightfully so at at the top of it.

Speaker 1 (11:49):
Eric. So let's move to your first wide receiver here,
and Jacob already mentioned him. It's Chris Alave.

Speaker 3 (11:54):
Yeah, Chris Olave wasn't the highest on Chris Alave because
I did not fall in love with the the Derek
car to Chris A Lave high, but I think I
was more or less proven right last year he was
lack loss. He did not live up to the massive
breakout that we all thought he was going to get
because Derek Carr had come in as a quarterback upgrade.
But I have to give Olave some of his flowers.
Where at least last year week nine onward average thirteen

(12:15):
point three points per game. That was wide receiver twelve
in twenty twenty three. So as he started to gel
a little bit more with Derek Carr, you started to
see him produce a little bit more. So that's encouraging
and when we're looking at players, so this particular category
has proven wide receivers with upside. Look, Olave has been
really good two years in the league. It's really been
the lack of touchdowns really have him struggle. So look
wide receiver twenty five as a rookie Wide receiver nineteen

(12:38):
in year two.

Speaker 4 (12:39):
So we're starting to see a play.

Speaker 3 (12:40):
I mean, players are allowed to get better, right, Nico
Collins got better in his third year, like players can
continue to improve. And this is something that I never
really I missed on Ceedee Lamb a little bit last
year because I wasn't considering that enough, where this guy's
been really really good, but he hadn't been great yet. Well,
why can't a Lave be great this year? Okay, he
has another year Derek Carr as his quarterback. Derek Carr

(13:01):
is not the greatest quarterback in the world, but who
tied CJ. Stroud with the most three hundred yard passing
games last season, Derek Carr. I think that's one of
the most crazy stats looking back a last year because
you would never think that just based on the rhetoric
around a Derek Carr, but as a just an average passer, Yeah,
he can do that at the NFL level, and that's
what you need for Chris Alavite.

Speaker 4 (13:20):
I think hit this next level.

Speaker 3 (13:21):
And I think the other thing too that I like
about a Lava that kind of could capture some upside
with him is the new offense that's coming in. Klink
Kubak's coming in from the Kyle Shanahan coaching scheme. So
we're gonna get the fun stuff, We're gonna get play action,
we're gonna get motion. Last year this is program bar
Field Fantasy points. Alave ranked thirty yards per out run
while in motion. They basically didn't do it a lot

(13:42):
last year. So we're looking at a player that two
years in the NFL has been highly efficient on ther
yards per out run basis he has another year with
his quarterback. I don't think it's horrible, and if he
benefits from a little bit more touchdown luck, I think
you can see a Lave break inside the top ten receivers,
and that to me is yeah, he's taking another step forward.
Last two seasons, it's just him and Terry McLaurin our

(14:04):
receivers with at least two thousand receiving yards that have
scored fewer than ten total touchdowns. He's fifteenth in receiving
yards per game seventy over the last two seasons, the
number one predictor of Fantasy points year over year. It's
not targets, not targets, rate prop run, it's receiving yards.
Go figure right, and Olave has shown that he can
get receiving yards. So for me, I think he's going

(14:24):
to continue to steadily increase his production. I think in
year three. I think that's why all lobby to me
has some upside.

Speaker 1 (14:31):
Jacob, what do you think about Alave specifically in this
Clint Kubiak offense and the opportunity, hopefully for more touchdowns.

Speaker 2 (14:38):
Yeah, I'm glad that Erickson hit on Kubiak because I'm
really excited for that change. The Saints were to last
in both pre stnat motion and play action rates last year,
and both of those things are just kind of past
game efficiency boosters. I think that's going to improve a
lot under Kubiak. Another interesting note on Kubiak that I
wanted to bring up is that last year Rashid Shaheed
led the NFL in go route rate. Almost one third

(15:00):
of his routes were go routes. Alave wasn't f far
behind him. He was twelve in go route rate. Go
routes just don't lead to very many targets. It's it's
I'm excited about Kubiak because if you look at Brandon Aiyuk,
his go route rate has been very low. Instead of
just having him run a ton of straight goes, he's
doing more posts and corners they're using, they're layering things
in down the field in a way similar to what

(15:22):
we saw in Houston with Bobby Slowak last year. And
to me, that's just that's exciting. Because New Orleans it
has not been it's not been very creative. It's just
been like go run deep and still he's winning and
drawing targets at a really high rate, which is really impressive.
And so like, what does it look like if there's
a little bit more nuance added to his rats rate
this year? I'm really excited.

Speaker 1 (15:39):
Let's stick with you, Jacob as we go to your
next proven wide receiver with upside.

Speaker 2 (15:43):
So to Jalen Waddle, I was absolutely shocked when I
saw Jalen Wattle where he came out in my projections.
The only wide receivers I have a higher median twenty
twenty four PPR output than Wattle my projections are Ceedee Lamb,
Tyreek Kill, Jamar Chase, Justin Jefferson, A J. Brown, I'm
honor Saint Brown, Nico Collins, Kukuanakua, and Garrett Wilson. Wide
receiver ten is where he's at. So that's ahead of

(16:04):
some really good receivers who are going ahead of him.
But the more I've dug into Miami's twenty twenty three season,
as I'm like building out the twenty twenty four projections,
it does feel clear to me they're probably going to
see a lot more passing from this offense. It was
a very very weird year Miam in Miami last year.
So the Dolphins ranked seventeenth in pass rate on the year,

(16:25):
but the rate win leading or trailing by six or
fewer points, so when games were close, when Mike McDaniel
was able to attack how he would like to was
the third highest in the NFL. They were actually passing
the ball at one of the highest rates, but they
were playing with leads all the time. They were playing
with the lead on fifty percent of their offensive drives.
Only the forty nine Ers, Ravens, and Lions had a
higher rate, and they also were playing with a bunch

(16:47):
of really big leads, like double digit leads. And so
if you look at Vegas look Ahead lines for this year,
the Dolphins have the fourth highest implied point total, so
they're expected to be a very good offense once again,
but their tenth in imply wins, which to me suggests
that this team might not be leading quite as often
as we saw last year. And I think that makes
sense if you look what happened to the defense this year.

(17:08):
Miami's defense lost nearly four thousand defensive snaps from twenty
twenty three to twenty twenty four, they had let a
lot of people walk because they're giving out all this
money to their players. You know, they have to sign too,
They have to sign their receivers. And so if we
see a diminished version of this defense and Miami is
involved in more just more neutral games, gets this projection

(17:30):
to where it's at where he's wide receiver ten, what
if they get into shootouts more often and then we
actually see like high route totals for this offense. Because
Tyrik Kill last year was forty fourth in total routes run,
like Jackson Smith and Jigba had more routes than Tyre
Kill did as a rookie who was only on the
field for three series sets. Jalen Moado was sixty sixth
in routes run on a per route basis. Watto was

(17:51):
as good as ever he was. It was his best
season on a per route basis, and so like, if
this all shifts and it's not this weird situation where
Miami is playing with huge leads all the time, just
look at the stats for Waddle in first and second
halves last year, he had seven hundred and eight receiving
yards and three touchdowns in the first halves of games
compared to three hundred yards and one touchdown in the

(18:12):
second half of games. Rheiem Mosterard scored eleven of his
eighteen touchdowns in the second half of games. So, like,
if things are just more neutral, then I think we're
going to see a big season just because there's going
to be more volume overall. And we've talked about contingency upside,
Like in Houston, what if Stefon Diggs or Tank Dell
gets hurt, What if Tyreek Hill gets hurt, If tyreank
Kill were to miss time, then Waddle could easily be

(18:32):
the wide receiver one. I filtered out plays with Hill
on the field to look at only his splits on
routes run without Hill, and it's like his data increases
to the level that Hill is producing now, and he's
obviously a wide Receiver one candidate. So like that's the
kind of upside that we're looking at with Waddle, and
I think that's important to bring up because like his
situation is different in this regard than someone like Garrett Wilson.

(18:53):
Like Garret Wilson's projection is built with the assumption that
he's going to have a target share that could reach
like thirty percent or something. He doesn't have any star
teammate wide receiver that might go down. You know, this
contingent upside is real. Obviously, we don't want to bet
on players getting hurt or anything, but it's a real
possibility and it would open th except for Wattle in
the massive way.

Speaker 1 (19:10):
Ericson would you have picked Wattle if Jacob didn't beat
to the punch, because I know you have been all
over him this draft season.

Speaker 3 (19:16):
Yeah, that was one of the players that Jacob took
from me by beating me to the show sheet. So yeah,
I mean you don't need I mean, I'm convinced. When
you had Jayalen Walla on the sheet, I was just
ready to sit back my popcorn and let's lay it on, like,
let's see this. And I think too the Dolphins defense,
Jack Barrett just retired. That was who they brought in
because they needed help on defense. They have nobody left

(19:38):
on that defensive line. Miami is going to play and
shootout after shootout, especially early on when you know this
offense is going to be cooking. Look at their early
season schedule. They're playing the Jaguars that up the're playing
the Titans early on. They're playing I remember the exact
the rest of the teams, but it's very good. It's
very favorable. It's like Tua even though he's not a
mobile quarterback, and I want a couple of quarterbacks here,
but Tua is gonna throw for a ton of yards

(20:00):
to open the season. I think that this Dolphins off
is going to be super productive shootouts Scalore and I
love Dayla Wallace, So I love the call Eric.

Speaker 1 (20:07):
Said, who's your last proven wide receiver here that we're
going to talk about?

Speaker 3 (20:11):
Going to Michael Pittman Junior, because I don't think you
can be more proven than him. Over the last three seasons.
Pittman is eighteen the receiving yards, seventh in catches, and
seventh in targets overall over the last three seasons. So
he's been the model of consistency from a receiver standpoint.
It's just the lack of touchdowns that are just killing him.
He has fourteen touchdowns and strings twenty fourth over that

(20:33):
time span. Except the fact that he's averaged one hundred
and four catches per year over the last two seasons,
which ranks fifth. So this is a bet on, not
only Shane Steichen and this offense that we saw perform
well above expectation last year with Gardner Minshew who was
not great as a quarterback. Even though Pittman somehow avoided
the bus tag altogether, despite losing his starting quarterback and

(20:53):
Anthony Richardson last year, Michael Pittman still continued to ball out.
He was top ten overall in red zone targets, so
I don't think that's going to change even with Richardson
under center, So he's going to get the red zone opportunities.
He is the alpha in this offense. He'd nearly thirty
percent target share last year, which is fourth highest among
all wide receivers. I'm not worried about at the night Mitchell.
I think Josh Downs is a nice player as well,

(21:13):
but I think Pittman is still the alpha. And if
they're doing a lot of RPOs, there has been a
lot of studies that when they're doing these run play options,
it's the first read that's going to and who is
that guy in the Colts offense. I'm pretty sure it's
going to be Michael Pittman. So I think that with Pittman,
everything is there for him except the touchdowns, and he
knows this. He's actually come out and spoken about, Hey,
I think I'm being disrespected. I know I got paid

(21:34):
this offseason, but I haven't really scored a lot of touchdowns.
So even he recognizes that he's been letting fantasy managers
down in the half PPR scoring because hey, I'm doing
my job in PPR, but half PPR I got to
pick up the slack and that comes with touchdowns. So
if I think this Colts offense is going to cook,
which I do, I'm very confident that this offense is
going to be at least inside the top ten because
of Shane Stikeen and Richardson and what they can do.

(21:55):
I'm very excited about Pittman taking another step forward and
again going from a player that's been good to maybe
that next level into great with a new quarterback under center.

Speaker 1 (22:04):
What do you make of Pittman, Jacob. He's a player
that I just have loved since he came into the NFL,
and to Erickson's point, hasn't quite made that leap into, like,
you know, kind of an elite fantasy wide receiver for you.
But I think he's a good pick for this for
the section. Because he has proven but there's you know,
more upside to come. I hope.

Speaker 2 (22:22):
I hope too. Pittman is definitely a really good player,
and we've seen him continue to get better. I do
worry about his touchdown upside. The Colts are just middle
of the pack in terms of like implied points from
Vegas this year, and I actually have them projected for
the third fewest passing touchdowns and the reason being is
Shane Steichen and three of them is his past four

(22:43):
years calling plays stickens offenses have actually produced more rushing
touchdowns than passing touchdowns. The only one that wasn't was
justin Herbert's rookie season, and even in that season, Steichen's
offense passed at a significantly lower rate than the league
average winning the red zone. I think that's kind of
how he likes to design it offense, and of course,
with Anthony Richardson, I think that it's likely that we'll

(23:04):
see that. But at the same time, I am fully
like in on Richardson as a talent and a passer
and someone who can like run an offense like more
than just a scrambling quarterback that we're going to use
to cheat in fantasy football. I think you really could
unlock some things for this offense and push that passing
touchdown much higher than my meetium projection. It's going to

(23:24):
account for and Piman the only stands a benefit from that.
Touchdowns have been the only thing that have been lacking
from his profile.

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Speaker 1 (24:58):
All right, let's move to our young breakout how wide
receivers that we see having some upside. Jacob will start
with you.

Speaker 2 (25:04):
It's George Pickens, and I have not typically been a
George Pickens guy, because he's not a big target earner
in college or his first few years in the pros.
But I think that could change. I think that we're
going to see this offense really really concentrated on him.
So he mentioned the importance of play action and pre
snap motion in reference to the Saints. The Steelers are
another team that I expect to really benefit from more

(25:26):
play action and more pre snap motion this year. They
ranked bottom five in play action rate in each of Pickens'
first two years. But Arthur Smith loves play action, and
we've also seen Arthur Smith's offenses focus on one receiver
off of these play action looks, and I think that
that's going to be Pickens. Since entering the NFL, he's
third in yards were target on play action targets. We

(25:47):
know that he can win down the field. I think
that's a great fit. And then the other thing that's
really encouraging is that, you know, I called him not
a target earner, but last year he really was when
Deanta Johnson wasn't on the field, and we got a
d sample of it because Johnson missed some games during
the time that Johnson was out. His first read target
rate shot up thirty eight percent in the four game

(26:10):
stretch without Deontae thirty eight percent first re target rate
for reference. This is from Fantasy Points data. For reference.
DeVante Adams led the NFL with a forty one percent rate.
Keenan Allen was second at forty percent. So that's like
right in the same range as George Pickens when he
was operating as this offense's number one receiver. And if
you look at if you want a larger sample, if
you look at his career data on a per route

(26:30):
basis without Deontay Johnson on the field, is target rate
rises from eighteen percent with Johnson on to twenty four
point three percent with Johnson off. So again that's like
kind of offensive centerpiece type of target rate. And so
I don't know what the actual passing volume is going
to be. Like It's kind of similar to the Michael
Pittman discussion in Indianapolis, where the Steelers I think are

(26:53):
last or second to last. I think the Patriots are
below them in projected passing touchdowns. For me, they're near
the bottom of the league projected passing yards as well.
So ultimately getting him to like, you know, finishing his
wide receiver one type of upside, Like probably not just
because of the offensive environment, but I also think that
there's a chance that he is going to be really
efficient with these opportunities. He's been more efficient than Drake
London to this point in his career, and I think

(27:16):
like if he slides into that role that London has
been playing in Smith's offense where the target rates are astronomical,
it Pickens slides into that role and is a little
bit more efficient at it because he's more suited to
be like the deep downfield ball winner that Smith wants.
I think it could be pretty exciting.

Speaker 1 (27:33):
Ericson where do you have Pickens rank this year?

Speaker 3 (27:36):
I have him in that wide receiver two range. I
think he has a lot of upside. I think that
he's one of these year three no reign of breakouts
and it's just the fear of Arthur Smith that's keeping
his price so low. A lot of these upside players,
especially going in best Ball, you can see because they're
so expensive because everyone is chasing that upside. But rounds
four a receiver entering year three that has shown the

(27:57):
ability to command a high target share without Deontae Johnson,
he's the clear alpha in this passing game. No one
else in the Steelers office is stepping up. Van Jefferson
is the number two receiver on this team. George Pickens. Yes,
I get the concerns of Arthur Smith's gonna be run heavy,
and maybe that leads to a couple of frustrating games
where Pickens maybe doesn't get targeted. But what happens things

(28:18):
level out because then the next week he's gonna go
for one hundred and fifty yards and two touchdowns. So
I like George Pickens a lot. I was going to
actually put him on my list in my top picks
from each round a couple of weeks ago, but ultimately
went up with the leak neighbors. But I felt like
Pickens still had that upside profile that definitely want to chase,
and he's someone that I'm happily drafting in all of
these best ball rooms.

Speaker 1 (28:38):
I probably shouldn't admit this. I completely forgot Van Jefferson
was even on the Steelers and we're talking about point
yeah essentially exactly. I'm I'm not really that you kind
of briefly mentioned like people maybe being a little concerned
about Arthur Smith, like.

Speaker 4 (28:52):
You're one of them. Warm. Well, No, I was.

Speaker 1 (28:54):
I was gonna say, like, I'm actually not that concerned
about Arthur Smith's like like a I'm not that worried
about what he did with the Falcons because now that
he has a head coach in Mike Tomlin, who is
like not gonna suffer fools. He's not gonna let him, like,
you know, mess around and not get the ball to
the best players. He's going if George Pickens is like
clearly the best receiver on this team, which I think

(29:16):
there's a really strong case that he will be, he
will get the ball. Mike Tomlin is not going to
let him, you know, throw to the you know, Darnel
Washington instead. Right, So I'm I'm not at all worried
about like the Atlanta stink on Arthur Smith. All right, Eric,
So let's go to your next player.

Speaker 3 (29:34):
Imagine a world where Christian Watson has healthy hamstrings. That's
the upside that I'm chasing here with Christian Watson, because
this Green Bay Packers wide receiver room is so polarizing.
We're all trying to figure out and I'm sure that
Gibbs has a lot doing the Green Bay Packers wide
receiver projections I'm sure that's a grand old time trying
to figure out who's gonna be the number one here.
But for me, when it looks at just when Watson

(29:56):
was on the field healthy last year, he was just
gobbling up a lot of these high values targets. He
had fifteen en zone targets last year that combined for
six of all the players in between the regular season
and the postseason combined. Christian Watson was a part time
player for the majority of the season, along with all
the games that he missed. So I don't want to
forget about that rookie year where he was checking off

(30:17):
every single elite bock that you want from a rookie
wide receiver and then just write it off completely because
of injuries the next season, and at least he showed
that he could still be efficient, at least from a
fantasy points scorer, which is the reason we play this game.
It doesn't matter how many fantasy points you score, especially
when the opportunities he was getting matched the production. Yes,
has his production been very boosted by touchdowns, yes, but

(30:39):
he's also seeing the red zone targets, he's seeing the
end zone targets. That suggests to me is Romeo Dobbs
gonna catch as many touchdowns as he did last year
if Christian Watson is healthy. Is Jade Reegan to score
ten touchdowns again with Christian Watson healthy in the lineup.
I don't think so. So I think that when we're
chasing these players with massive touchdown upside, we like the
quarterback and Jordan Love he's going to be there for
the long term. We've seen him been able to Gael

(31:00):
with Christian Watson, so I think for me, Christian Watson
has so much upside and it just depended on, Okay,
is he healthy and he's a young player. I know
they've taken extra steps this year to try to fix
his hamstring, so it remains to be seen. But he's
going late enough in drafts where I feel like the
injury risk is baked in enough where I feel like
I can take a shot on the upside because I
don't think if the draft can necessarily as a starter

(31:20):
in most formats. So look, if he's healthy, I think
that he's gonna be all have a ton of spike
week potential. And if he gets injured, well, he wasn't
that expensive. That's going to kill your team.

Speaker 1 (31:29):
Ericson you'll appreciate this. I just noticed that I'm in
the middle of a slow startup right now for a
super flex Ninnasty League, so it's super flex and tighten premium.
So I went QBQV tight end to start. Three of
my first four receivers were Chris Olave, Michael Pittman Junior,
and Christian Watson, so you would be loving my team.

Speaker 4 (31:48):
I'm in your mind, man. I saw the show. She
just took it, just took over.

Speaker 1 (31:51):
I do too many shits. I was messaging deebro earlier too,
like I'm so debro pilled. I have like Trey McBride,
I have just all of his favorite players. So it's
I definitely a being in facted by doing all these
shows with you guys.

Speaker 4 (32:04):
Erickson.

Speaker 1 (32:05):
You did also kind of throw out that you were
considering Jayden Reid for this section as well. So is
there do you like have a preference for Christian Watson
where he's going compared to Jayden Reid or do you
see them as like one of these guys you think
is going to kind of hit and you're not sure which.

Speaker 3 (32:20):
I think that's kind of how I settle on it.
But it's interesting because the Packers' offense we all really
like a lot. Clearly, the Packers like their offense because
they just made Jordan Love the highest paid quarterback in
NFL history, So they're excited about this. We should be
excited about the Packers, but the reason that they're so
much cheaper than, for example, the Texans offense.

Speaker 4 (32:38):
I mean, who threw more touchdowns last year?

Speaker 3 (32:39):
Jordan lovecj Shroud Jordan Love through more touchdowns last year,
and now will that'll be the same next this year? Not necessarily,
but it goes to the point of this Packers passing
game has upside and so while we're trying to piece together, oh,
who's going to leave the team in targets, Well, if
Jordan Love throws another forty touchdowns, then they're probably all
going to pay off their ADPs and where they're going now.
Watson in particular, I think that he's kind of more

(33:00):
in the mystery box because he missed so much time
last year. We haven't really seen him play healthy all
the way with Jordan Love. But Jayden Reid I was
concerned about his usage last year in the fact that
he's not running routes on all the downs and that's
the concern if you want to, you know, be fading
Jayden Reid, and I get that, but he also had
a insane rookie breakout. We love rookies that breakout in

(33:20):
year one. We're upsessed with them, and then they usually
take a major step in year two because what happens
their roles expand. So when you just look at last year,
it's easy to point out, Okay, Jane Rea's limits time player.
When all these guys come back, he's that could be
nearly productive. I get that argument, but he also was
amazing as a rookie Day two pick. He was something
that I really liked as a prospect, and I don't know,
kind of think back, it reminds me a little bit

(33:41):
of amm Rossain Brown, where oh, well he only did
his rookie year.

Speaker 4 (33:44):
It was nasty because TJ. Howkinson was hurt, and then
what happened. He was just good, like he just continued
to be good. I think Jayden Reid is good.

Speaker 3 (33:51):
So I can't say, oh, I'm gonna faye Jane Reid
because he's gonna be a part time player. Well, I
don't think that's going to be the case. I think
his role will probably expand he showed at Michigan State
he could play on the perimeter. He's not only a
slot guy. He can play more in the slot. And
well what if Christia Watson again going back to that
continues the upside, Well what if Watson gets hurt again
and we just roll back Jayden Reid as the number

(34:11):
one target on the Packers? That would shock nobody. So again,
considering his ADP, I think it is baking in the
risk of Okay, maybe his role isn't that full time
that we all really want, but he's wide receiver thirty
four I believe in ADP. It's actually interesting. It's the
same year to ADP as amar Ros Saint Brown and
sixty fourth overall, So I thought that was kind of interesting.
But yeah, I did want to shout out Jayden Reid

(34:32):
a little bit too, because I think there's a lot
of upside in this Packers' offense, as we will also
get into a little bit later on.

Speaker 1 (34:37):
Jacob, you did say you sent an extra name for
this section, and it was you know, you kind of
picking between three names. One of them was Christian Watson.
So is he the guy in this Packers offense that
you're kind of buying into if you have to pick one,
he is.

Speaker 2 (34:50):
But I do love Jayden Reid as well, And I
think the point that Ericson made about if Watson goes down,
Reid becomes a superstar is totally valid for what is
worth When Watson and Reid we're all in the field
last year one hundred and fifty nine route sample size
including the playoffs, Watson actually led that group in targets.
That surprised me because Reid, this is incleaning only plays

(35:12):
when Reid was on the field, and Reed is a
shorter target guy who has more stuff kind of designed
to him. Watson is running down the field more, especially
now that they have read in the offense. They got
more design looks to Watson his rookie season, but last
year is mostly running deeper routes. And that's evidence in
the fact that he had five hundred and forty seven
air yards within this split Watson did the next closest

(35:32):
was read it two seventy eight. So like, there's massive,
massive opportunity for him, and he has been the guy
who's drawn targets the highest rate of all the players
win on the field. He produced with him as well
within this split, he had three hundred and thirty five
er siving yards. Reid was second at two hundred ups
at one hundred and fifty eight. And then to Erickson's
point about touchdowns, Christian Watson over the past two seasons,

(35:52):
win on the field has accounted for fifty percent of
green bays in zone targets. That was up to fifty
eight with Jordan Love last year, So even higher with
Love than with Rogers. If this offense takes off, if
Love is an MVP candidate, if there are you know,
forty plus touchdowns and Watson is healthy for most of it,
it could get like truly nuts with the touchdowns. And

(36:15):
so that's where the upside comes in for him to
just absolutely crush and be like a league winner at
this prize.

Speaker 1 (36:21):
Jacob, let's stick with you for your next young breakout
wide receiver.

Speaker 2 (36:24):
So it's Jackson Smith and Jigba, who was a disappointment
in his rookie season, And I think to understand why
there's a ton of contextual stuff with what we got
in Seattle last year. First off, the offensive line was
a problem. Shane Waldern's plan for Jackson Smith injig but
and the slot was already a little bit problematic and boring,
but then when the offensive line went became such an issue,

(36:46):
he really leaned into Jason just being this drag route runner.
That was what he was doing from the slot over
and over, and if you look at Jason splits, he
was way way better when he was outside of the slot.
He was way better when he was allowed to run
downfield routes. These just over and over over the middle,
perdictable vanilla routes did nothing for him. And if you
look at like design target rates, he was near the
top of the leaguecause it was like just drags and

(37:07):
screens and stuff like that, just ways to work around
the offensive line. The offensive line should be healthy and
should have pretty strong tackle play. They drafted to gard
that I'm prety excited about. I think the offensive line
could be a lot better. The other thing is coaching.
I don't want to pile on Wildern too much, but
I think coaching particularly, I want I want to focus
on Grin Grebb and what he brings to Seattle because
I think that he could really help this offense and

(37:29):
is really perfectly paired for Gino Smith and the receivers
that he has here. So I think we're going to
see way more three receiver sets. That's important for sure.
That's what I've seen from Greb at the collegiate level.
And I think we're going to see a ton of
downfield passing, which is really important for Geno Smith. And
I think, you know, Smith has been much much better
than people realize. Shout out to Hayden Wings of Underdog
Fantasy for this stat. Since twenty twenty one, you know,

(37:52):
Smith is the QB one overall in completion percentage over expectation.
The next closest are Joe Burrow, Patrick Mahomes, and Aaron Rod.
So this is a real stat that's important and points
towards Geno being very effective and completion percentage over expectations
takes into account where the targets are coming, and so
like being able to be efficient on his downfield routes

(38:12):
is why on his downfield throws, is why Gino checks
out so high in this regard. I think he's just
like such a great fit for Grub. The other thing
is the Seahawks produced fewer offensive plays than anyone in
the NFL last year. They're the only team that was
under a thousand total offensive plays and This is where
Mike McDonald comes in for see out of the new

(38:33):
head coach coming over from Baltimore has been their defensive coordinator.
I think that he's going to help this team so
much just shoring things up. Last year, the Seahawks could
not stop anybody on third down. They were like bottom
three and all sorts of third down efficiency metrics on defense.
And that's actually one of the most correlated stats defensive
third down stops with total offensive play volume. Does that

(38:55):
make sense? Like being able to get other teams off
of the field, gets the ball back in your hand
and gets you more time on the clock. And I
think that it's it's going to be so important to
have McDonald taking over because this this defense has a
lot of talent on it and I think if they're
able to stop teams more often to get the ball
back in the offense's hands, we're just going to see
more plays overall. Even just to return to normalcy when

(39:19):
with the play volume would be huge for this offense
because they were literally dead last.

Speaker 1 (39:23):
One interesting note too about McDonald is that when he
first took over as Baltimore's defensive play caller, those that
first like two months or so of that first season
there actually were a lot of broken It's a very
cerebral defense, so there was a lot of like broken
plays defensively, like in the defensive backfield where they gave
up big plays. So it wasn't like these long, extended

(39:45):
drives that kept the Ravens offense off the field. It was, oh,
the other team's scoring quickly and now it becomes a
shootout in the offense was having to throw more and
more anyway, So even if the defense kind of struggles
to adapt right away, what really wasn't until they brought
Rokann Smith over that the defense kind of another you know,
step forward with McDonald. But because it was kind of
the way of the defense struggling was broken plays and

(40:06):
kind of these big, you know, quick scoring drives, it
still led to you know, more time on the field
for the Ravens offense and a need to throw more.
So even that if they struggled early could kind of
play well for receivers on this team. JSN like I
could not have loved him more as a prospect coming
into the NFL. Obviously like a disappointing year one, but
I am like, in no way out on him or

(40:28):
giving up or anything after just one tough year.

Speaker 2 (40:31):
Got him as a player just a little bit, because
I did go back and watch every route that Jackson
Smith and jig But ran last year, Because like you,
I was like pretty convicted on him as a player.
I think we saw what we needed to see. I
really think that it's possible that we're just gonna forget
about this rookie season. He was much much and it's
born out in the data as well. He was much
much better against man coverage than he was against zone coverage,
which is unusual if he's just a slot guy. But

(40:52):
I think he's much more than just a slot guy,
much better against man coverage, very good against press coverage
data wise, And then if you watch him, people can't
get their hands on him. People cannot press this guy.
He just like brushes them off. He just moves in
a different way. And it's very very exciting, especially when
he moves into this role that we've seen Jalen Polk
and McMillan both thrive in at Washington, where they're getting

(41:13):
more and more involved down in these layer intermediate looks
down the field. I think he fits so well with
this offense and everything I saw last year when watching him,
plus the data is like, he's really really good. If
you look at Matt Harmon's reception, perception, man coverage scores,
all that stuff, he's like, this guy is good. You
know it's not. I think there are a lot of
reasons to be bullish on him turning things around.

Speaker 1 (41:34):
Eric Soon, what do you make a JSM this year?

Speaker 3 (41:36):
I've been warming on JSN as I've kind of taken
a deeper dive into the numbers, providing contexts to his
role last year. The fact that he opened last year
with the wrist injury, so that kind of set him
back a little bit. The fact that he didn't play
his Famo yar Od Ohio State because he was dealing
with I believe was a hamstring injury. So I think
there's enough where he showed even he was really good
after the catch, he was still showing that he could

(41:57):
make plays after the catch when he was getting the ball.

Speaker 4 (41:59):
So I think.

Speaker 3 (42:00):
Jaysn, especially given his price point where he goes outside
the top forty receivers, you're looking for players with upside.
He's a former first round pick and during his second season,
and you can see the path where he's getting more
opportunities in his offense. They're saying all the right things
in training camp. I think that we're all kind of
collectively believing that Tyler Lockett is kiring to start to
head hit the down the decline in his production. So

(42:22):
if Lockett's no longer than number two, then you have
Metcalf as the number one.

Speaker 4 (42:26):
But he's really been a one A.

Speaker 3 (42:27):
He's never been such an alpha that it's prevented another
receiver of being productive. So if Jaysn is now stepping
into that, you know, Tyler lockett production role, well, how
often it's always been Metcalf in Lockett? The argument every
year is why we keep drafting Metcalf over Lockett. They
score the same amount of Fantasy points every single year.
So if Jayson takes on that production, not nenessily the
role because they're different players, but if he takes on

(42:48):
that type of production, well he's going to look at
a steal and I think worst case scenario, even if
he doesn't have his massive upside breakout, I think it's
pretty safe to say he's going to be much better
than he was as a rookie.

Speaker 4 (42:57):
I think that he's too talented. So even if it's
not face melting. Again.

Speaker 3 (43:01):
Players can improve, and it doesn't mean that he's going
to be great in year two, but he can definitely
improve from.

Speaker 4 (43:06):
Where he was as a rookie.

Speaker 3 (43:07):
I think that makes him a strong investment given that
there is a strong upside case as well.

Speaker 1 (43:11):
Yeah, the upside is obvious. But even if he doesn't
hit it like, he will outperform wide receiver forty two,
which is what he is in ECR, barring an injury
or something. So I think he's a great investment too. Ericson,
We've already touched a bit on the Texans wide receiving room,
but you do want to hit on Tank Dell here
as the last young, breakout wide receiver.

Speaker 3 (43:31):
Yeah, so chasing these offenses that could throw for forty
five fifty touchdowns potentially, that's how you find upside is
with touchdowns, and Tank Dell, to me, can going against
the cheapest Texas wide receiver. I think that he has
a lot of upside because if you ask CJ. Stroud
who his favorite wide receiver is, he's probably gonna say.

Speaker 4 (43:47):
Tank Dell because that's what he did.

Speaker 3 (43:49):
He was the one that advocated for the Texans to
draft take Dell in the first place. And when you
look at the numbers at least when Dell and Collins
were healthy last year, they're pretty similar, similar target share,
similar error shared, similar points per game in terms of
both guys were putting up top ten Fantasy football numbers.
So it's interesting because we never got to see a
playoff for the full season. I remember doing a show
with you Worm where it was a debate where like, hey,

(44:09):
who do you want rest of season? You want Tanked
Dell or Nico Collins, And it's like, well, who had
the big week? Who's coming off the big week? That's
the guy I want. So it was a very tough
question to kind of parse through to figure who he
wanted more. And then by default, Dell goes down with
the fibia injury and it made Nico Collins again saw
his production boost even more with dank Dell out of
the lineup. So the concern is, okay with Dell, is

(44:30):
he actually back from this like injury. You know, we
saw Tony Pollard last year suffer a similar injury. He
plays running backs to a receiver, but he said it
took him till the middle of the season to feel
himself again. So that's the concern with Tank Dell. And
I know that he's been in practice. He's been practicing
in full, so it seems like he should be okay.
But we'll see in real life scrimmages and in the
NFL as the games kick off. How well Tank Dell's

(44:51):
actually performing remains to be seen, especially when you have
two other really talented guys in the offense, between a
Nico Collins and a Stefan Digg. That's kind of the
downside case for him, but the upside cases. I mean,
he broke out as a rookie receiver. These are the
profiles that we want to chase, and he was super productive. Again,
he was matching Nico Collins in terms of those per
game metrics when he was healthy, and he did it

(45:13):
as a rookie, not as a third year pro. So
I think that's really impressive. And I really think if
it weren't for the injury, well, would we be ranking
Nico Collins so much farther ahead of Tank Dell? What
would the Texans receivers look like? So obviously that's not
a base in reality, because Tank Dell didn't get hurt,
and that's why he's going the last out of these
Texans receivers. But I think that he has similar upside
to a Stefondes or to a Nico Collins, just based

(45:35):
on the relationship he has with CJ. Stroud in the
fact that last four games they played together, Tank Dell
had more receiving yards than Nico Collins did. So there's
a case where if Dell's firing at all cylinders, maybe
in the second half of the season, maybe that's when
Dell takes over as a most productive Texas receiver.

Speaker 1 (45:49):
I am getting a lot of Dell this year just
because I you know, he's going cheapest and I want
to be invested in the offense, so I'll just when
the art two are gone, I'll take him, even if
I like Nico Collins better. Obviously, you know, Jacob, you're
planting your flag on Collins. Are you interested in Dell
as well?

Speaker 2 (46:06):
Yeah, for sure when both players are on the field.
Forty eight targets to Nico, forty three to Tank Dell.
But Tank Dell actually outscored him because he had six
touchdowns and Nico only had three, And to me, that
just kind of illustrates the point that defenses are going
to not be able to focus on Tank Dell, you know, like,
especially when you add Stefan Diggs to the equation, I
think we could see where he's the one getting the

(46:28):
most advantageous looks pretty often, and Stroud trusts him, and
so he might actually end up being like the most
efficient with his opportunities. Yeah, I think he's a great
pick at ADP. I do prefer him straight up to
Stefan Diggs.

Speaker 1 (46:41):
Before we get to the rest of the show, I
want to take a quick second to talk to everyone
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(47:04):
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(47:25):
like weekly doubleheaders. There's a reason why fantasy players who
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Fantasy Pros. That's f A n t r a x
dot com slash Fantasy Pros. Fan Tracks, the home of
fantasy sports. All right, let's go to the deep sleeper

(47:48):
wide receivers here with upside. And again we're not necessarily
saying that these are guys that are going to you know,
Spider now.

Speaker 4 (47:56):
For these guys are going to the moon. They're gonna
melt faces. Don't don't put a cabin when you have
the title.

Speaker 1 (48:02):
The episode is massive upside and we're going to throw
out a Panthers wide receiver. I don't want people yelling
at me.

Speaker 3 (48:09):
You mean a former first round pick, Yeah, receiver, that's
what you're talking about.

Speaker 1 (48:13):
We'll get to that one later. Jacob, your first player
here is actually, you know, Josh Downs. So we've talked
about Michael Pittman already in this col offense, but you
see some upside with another guy here too.

Speaker 2 (48:23):
Yeah, So we're getting really specific here, but when both
Downs and Pittman were on the field together through the
first eight weeks, and I bring that split up because
Josh Downs injured in the week nine and was notably
less efficient from that point. Omity just kept playing through it.
When both players were on the field together through the
first eight weeks, Piman had only five more targets than Downs.

(48:45):
Downs had more receiving yards than Pittman and more PPR
points than Pittman. That's that's a bit misleading because Downs
comes off the field when they go to two receiver sets,
but like when they're both on the field, he actually
produced Piman, which is just very interesting for a rookie
and an offense where Pitten was operating as like the
clear alpha. The other thing is and this is another

(49:05):
really obscure one, but Downs was really really good. This
is a per Fantasy points data at creating off script.
So per Fantasy points data, Josh Downs three hundred and
thirty one of his seven hundred and seventy one receiving
yards came on plays where he was not the first
read or a design target, which was the highest rate

(49:26):
in the NFL. I think that it makes sense that
he could be the guy that Richardson ends up depending
on when he gets off script. And Richardson is very
good at navigating the pocket and waiting until he has
the right opportunity. He's looking to create plays down the

(49:46):
field with his arm more than a lot of other
scrambling quarterbacks who are just looking to run once the
play breaks down. And to me, Downs is the guy.
Adie Mitchell potentially could throw his name into this conversation,
but Downs is the guy. He's very very good at
just shaking one person and getting away from them. And
that's born out and his man coverage data. If you
look at Matt Harmon's work on reception perception, the only

(50:08):
receivers and he hasn't done every single receiver yet, but
he has done most of them. The only receivers who
had a higher man coverage grade than Downs last year
where A J. Brown, Brendan and I you Garrett Wilson,
Ceedee Lamb, Nico Collins, and then you have Downs oat
of Justin Jefferson ahead of Chris Alave. That's wild to me,
and I think that like when these plays break down,
he can beat one guy. And the other thing is

(50:29):
he's very very good at the contest to catch, which
I don't think he realized because he's short, but that
was just something he excelled at at North Carolina, And
so I think he's a guy who might get leaned
on a lot. And when it comes to you know,
could this offense exceed expectations in the passing game, like
with these explosive plays from Richardson, I think Downs might
be the guy who's doing that a lot more than
people realize.

Speaker 1 (50:48):
Erickson, you obviously are a believer in Pittman this year.
Are you also a believer in Downs? Again, it's going
so much later that it's gonna be hard for not
to at least give value.

Speaker 3 (50:57):
I think that with Downs it just comes down to
what is the passing volume. Again, we are concerned about
Pittman's potential touchdowns. I don't think Downs is gonna leapfrog
him in the red zone department of things. So that's
kind of where maybe he's a better real life player
than necessarily a fantasy contributor. And that's why, you know,
that's the concern with Josh Downs and Mitchell, for example,

(51:19):
I think Mitchell could have a lot of spike weeks
just because I think he could be the main vertical threat.
So does he end up hitting your lineup more on
a best ball scoring format than a Josh Downs where
Josh Down's is really consistent. But okay, he was four
for forty this week because they only threw the ball
twenty five times. So he's putting up good peripheral numbers.
He's catching the ball, he's getting open, and that's helping
the offense move. But it's Richardon scoring the touchdowns, it's

(51:40):
Jonathan Taylor, it's Michael Pittman, and the Josh Downs are
the fourth option.

Speaker 4 (51:44):
Yeah, he looks really good, but.

Speaker 3 (51:46):
Again it's not working out in his favorite situationally, So
I still think though putting him in this list makes
sense because you're betting on a player that we know
is good, right, And usually what happens is players that
are good they rise to the occasion, especially in a
potential injury situation or if somebody goes down, well, Josh
Downs would step up. And last year saw the Colts
really if Josh Downs had been healthy, we probably would

(52:08):
have seen more production from him. When Michael Pittman did
get hurt, the Colts were they were dying for production
at receiver when Pittman missed a couple of games and
he was dealing with his concussion, but Downs was disappointing
because of the knee injury, right, and that's why he was
forcing his way into the line because he needed to play,
but he wasn't one hundred percent.

Speaker 4 (52:24):
So that's kind of my spin on Downs.

Speaker 1 (52:27):
Ericson you've already talked about multiple Packers receivers and you're
gonna throw another one at.

Speaker 3 (52:32):
Us because the Packers are good offense to invest in,
and they're cheap across the board. None of them are
overly expensive because we're not sure who's going to step up,
but what do we know. We feel pretty good the
quarterback is going to be good, that they're going to
score a lot of touchdowns. So I'm willing to throw
darts on all of these guys. And that starts with
on Taman Wicks ECR wide receiver sixty four look, averaging

(52:53):
nearly two yards per ute run last year. That ranked
twenty seventh among all wide receivers, top five among all
rookies per True Media. Wicks first down per route run
tied DeVante Adams for eighteenth among all players. So Jordan
Love spread the love last year, there really was no
one that he stepped up to that consistently had a
consistent top tier target chair because Watson was in and
out of the lineup, he was dealing with injuries. Reid

(53:14):
had the most targets, but when you look at how
many players had forty plus targets, think it was like
seven different players had forty or more targets on this
Packers offense the most of any other team in the
NFL last year. So a couple of injuries here or there,
maybe he leapfrogs or e leap frogs Romeo Dobbs on
the lineup, and then you have Wis in a full
time role.

Speaker 4 (53:31):
Christian Watson doesn't stay healthy.

Speaker 3 (53:32):
I think Don tam Wick showed a lot as a
rookie receiver that hey, this guy has some talent, this
guy can win downfield. We like this player, and all
they've talked about is the coaches saying he's Devonte Adams.
Jordan loves saying that the ceiling, the sky's the limit
for this guy, and I think we should take notice
of that, especially in home leagues where he's not going
nearly as high as he is in these best ball formats.

(53:53):
The best ball formats are for the djens, right, But
these are the people that are dialed in and drafting
since May, so I think it it's important to look
at where their ADPs are and apply it to your
home league and think, Man, Wix is going really late
in my home draft. I'm just gonna stash this guy
on my bench and see what happens and kind of
see how this packers room plays out. So for me,
that's why like Wicks a lot as a late round

(54:14):
of sleeper.

Speaker 1 (54:15):
Yeah, it's it's sometimes tricky. It's often tricky to kind
of parse through the quotes that you hear when everybody's
being optimistic anyway, But like Jord to your point, like
coaching staff has spoken really highly of him, Jordan Love.
I think the quote he uses like he's gonna have
a monster year this year. Like they are seemingly very
like big believers in wis Jacob, where do you see
Wix like kind of in the in the pecking order

(54:35):
in this receiver room and you know at wide receiver
sixty four, is there real upside there?

Speaker 2 (54:41):
I think it's unlikely that he's going to ever like world,
not ever, but this year take the X receiver role
from Dobbs. I think it's really important that Dobbs kind
of feels that sacrificial X receiver who's taking defense's attention
down the field but not drawing a ton of targets.
I think he's their clear best bet at that in.
Green Bay does really love him, just like they love Wicks.

(55:02):
So it's probably got to come through an injury for
Wicks to be relevant. But I'll echo everything Ericson said
about him as a player. He's great. Everybody seems to
think he's great. Real life people, you know, real life
football people, fantasy people, everybody gets it. And yeah, make
bets on good players and good offenses. That's probably the
way to go, especially at this point in the draft.

Speaker 4 (55:21):
I love it, Jacob.

Speaker 1 (55:23):
Let's go with your final wide receiver here. He's the
lowest ranked receiver in ECR off anybody we're talking about today,
and as I alluded to, he's on the Panthers.

Speaker 2 (55:33):
Yeah, so I'll just start there. I'm actually kind of
bullish on the Panthers. I'm doing these team by team
previews and definitely did not expect to feel this way
when I projected the Panthers before really really digging in
to some of the players specific stuff and the scheme
specific stuff, I did not feel very good about them.
And that's mostly because the Vegas imply totals for this
team are awful. So the most likely outcome is probably

(55:55):
that the offensive pieces in this offense don't matter very
much for a fantasy other than maybe Deontay Johnson, maybe
Jonathan Brooks. And that's why Zevier Leaguett is drafted where
he is. But the more I dug in man it
was an impossible set of circumstances for Bryce Young. Last year,
no one was getting open, like absolutely no one. Adam
Thielen was thirty ninth in ESPN's Open Score. The next

(56:18):
highest Carolina Panther was one hundred and twelve and it
was Hayden Hurst. Out of one hundred and fifty three players.
The panthers two outside receivers ranked one hundred and fifty
second and one hundred and forty third.

Speaker 4 (56:30):
And so.

Speaker 2 (56:32):
We're replacing that with Deontay Johnson, who's literally first in
ESPN's Open Score of the past three years, ahead of
Justin Jefferson, ahead of Tyreek Kill, ahead of CD Lamb,
and Zevier Leaguett, who's a fifth year breakout, so you know,
grain of salt, but the numbers that he put up
last year were insane, over three point four yards per
out run. That put him an exclusive company in terms
of single season production among you know, as man, you

(56:54):
throw in first round NFL draft capital as well. That's
a player who I think we can reasonably exp to
potentially be an NFL producer. The last thing I'll throw
in here is that among twenty four quarterbacks, Bryce Young
ranked fourth and Fantasy Point Data's accurate throw rate when
targeting an open receiver and this doesn't include screens. He

(57:16):
didn't have open receivers very often. Like we just talked
about fourth among twenty four. That is interesting to me.
And when I watched Bryce Young, he's making plays, he
is making throws. If you just like search my Twitter
name in Bryce Young, you'll find a lot of this stuff.
Because I did include a lot of the plays.

Speaker 4 (57:32):
You really like.

Speaker 2 (57:33):
There was some stuff on film that was positive. It's
just hard to find stats that are positive. And I
guess I said that was the last thing. But one
more thing, two more things, actually, I'm so sorry. I'll
go all day. More motion and play action. We've talked
about this already. Those are huge. I think we're going
to get that from Dave Canalis. Carolina was at the
bottom of the league in those last year. You're probably
noticing a theme by this point the offenses that weren't good.
We're in the bottom of the league of those things. Also,

(57:55):
improved offensive line play is going to be huge. They
really really address the it's of line. They really needed to.
I feel really good about the additions that they made,
So everything to me is pointing up. You know, take
it for what it is worth because Vegas doesn't believe
in them. But I kind of do.

Speaker 1 (58:10):
Ericson what do you think of the Panthers and specifically
what the offense could be for fantasy, because I do
really like Dave Canalis, like I think that is that
is a move that I It makes me more excited
for the Panthers than maybe I would have been, and
more excited for Bryce Young than maybe I would have
been if they'd gone in a different direction at head coach.
But what do you think about this as an option
for fantasy? Really as an offense as a whole.

Speaker 3 (58:32):
There's nowhere else to go about from last year they
can't possibly worse than they were last year. And I
think that bringing in an actual head coach with Dave
Canal is coming in. We've seen him reorchestrate resurgencies from
Gino Smith from Baker Mayfield. So Bryce Young is a
elite distributor. That's what he was at Alabama, a playmaker
in terms of getting the ball to his best pieces.

(58:53):
That to include Deontay Johnson, and that's going to include
zaber Lagette as long as he's healthy and ready to go,
because he offers a lot out to the cash that
they did not have last year. We expecting Jonathan Mingo
to take a step forward, No, because and the thing
with the Panthers too, that can't they can't keep missing
on these guys, right, Eventually one of these guys has
to hit like Terris Marshall, miss Jonathan Mingo, miss zaberl Lagett,

(59:14):
like it looks like a carbon copy in so many
ways to those other players. But eventually you just got
to hit on one of these guys. So I think
get just looking at the draft capital alone, right, he's
a first round pick that's going outside of the seventy receivers.
I think that by itself is enough justification to just
see how it plays out, especially in the second half
of the year where maybe he has a bigger role.
Now he's more customer to the offense. We know that

(59:34):
he's not this finesse route runner, but the Panthers need
to find ways to get the ball into playmaker's hands.
And what if Jonathan Brooks isn't ready to go, who's
going to be moving, Who's gonna be generating expulsive plays?
Deontay Johnson's gonna drown in targets, we know that, but
he's not the one that's going to be running downfield
getting chunk gains for this offense. They're gonna to have
to develop expulsive somewhere, and le Get really checks off

(59:56):
a lot of those boxes.

Speaker 1 (59:58):
All right, Eric's in final wide receiver we're talking about today?

Speaker 3 (01:00:00):
Who you got si Milanta Falcons receiver Darnald Mooney. And
if you guys read the newsletter from Jacob Gibbs today today,
this was not even planned Falcons projections past game about
to explode. So I already know Gibbs is gonna love
me talking about Darnall Mooney here. So let's start with
let's go down narrative Street first, right, So Darnal Mooney,
him and Kirk Cousins are at locker room. Neighbors love that.

(01:00:23):
So Moody said to Cousins again, he's always giving him insight.
Kirk's the guy, He's the reason why everything is flowing. Now,
let's get mathematical, right. You know we got it's a
stats show, we got gibbs on, we got to talk stats.

Speaker 1 (01:00:33):
Right.

Speaker 3 (01:00:33):
So this is from Warren Sharp. Nearly forty percent of
deep targets to Darnel Mooney have been inaccurate in his
career over the span, which is the number one that's worst.
But when you look at the number one quarterback in
here's accuracy twenty yards plus downfield. Is Mooney's new quarterback,
Kirk Cousins with the Itlinanta Falcons. So Darnald Mooney has
been miscast, has been in horrible situations with the Bears

(01:00:54):
for the past three seasons. He's been dealing with injuries
playing with he I believe it was an injury that
he dealt with entering last year and I think that
really limited his production heading into this season. And you
saw last year get him as the DJ Moore Show,
Cole Comet and Darnah Mooney was really not productive, but
I always felt like he was really underrated, and when
he signed with the Falcons, I thought it was a
really sharp signing. And when I kind of dove deeper

(01:01:16):
into it, so the Falcons director of player personnel, Ryan Pace,
so he drafted Mooney in the fifth round through the
twenty twenty draft. So there's a connection here with this
Falcons team that they went out and sought for Mooney
specifically because they know what he's capable of doing. Who
has more a thousand yard receiver one thousand yard receiving
seasons on their resume, Darnal Mooney or Drake London. Darnal
Mooney has one, Drake London has zero. So Mooney I

(01:01:38):
think has that same type of upside that a Drake
London has that's made his adp essentially into Round two
based on all projection, not based on Drake London's body
of work, besides having a high target share while competing
with nobody for targets except for an injured Kyle Pitts.
So when I look at Darnall Mooney, I think that
he's so underrated in this offense as that potential deep

(01:01:59):
threat for Kirk Cousins, and I think that his body
work is being slept on. And I know the last
thing I want to make here, the last point here
is every year we get these free agent wide receiver
contracts that we have to do like a double take
and think, wait, Jacoby Meyer's got that amount of money,
Christian Kirk got that amount of money. These underrated beta
receivers end up getting a lot of money from these

(01:02:19):
teams in free agency, and usually it doesn't work out.
But every year it seems like one of these signings
ends up working out. And I think, for me, I
think that's going to be Darnel Mooney. I think that
he's just a very underrated receiver. He's an elite separator
and that's not really Drake London's game. London is not
an elite separator. Well, Mooney, I think is going back
to his rookiear when he destroyed Jalen Ramsey and then
just get the ball thrown over his head. So, and

(01:02:41):
you know who's on that sideline, Zach Robinson, the offensive
coordinator for the Atlanta Falcons formerly of the Rams. So
I think Darneld Mooney wide receiver sixty eight, he's a
bet on this Falcons offense. Like Jacob Gibbs said, he's
going to explode in twenty twenty four. So I think
he's a really cheap way to get access to a
Falcons passing game that a lot of people are excited about.
And he doesn't cost nearly as much as a Drake

(01:03:01):
London round two ADP when you look at their resumes.
I mean, has Drake London been that much better than
Darnell Mooney?

Speaker 4 (01:03:07):
I don't. I don't think so. So for me, I
like Mooney a lot Erickson's cooking.

Speaker 2 (01:03:11):
But I will not stand for the Joe Kobe Myers slander.
We're not going to call it to Kobe Meers.

Speaker 4 (01:03:16):
Well, he was underrated, That's what I'm saying. He was underrated.

Speaker 2 (01:03:18):
He should have got more money in free agency.

Speaker 4 (01:03:20):
He should have.

Speaker 1 (01:03:21):
Jacob, this is the perfect opportunity to plug the newsletter
as we wrap up on the last player. But yeah,
what do you think about Mooney?

Speaker 2 (01:03:28):
I'm excited for Mooney. I actually I just was kind
of in a rush preparing for this and everything today,
so I didn't get to highlight him in the newsletter.
But this is great. I'm gonna clip what Ericson just
said and like slapped it on my Twitter because yeah,
that was great. I also think the one note that
I would add on Mooney is that could see him
use in the preestnet motion stuff the way that the

(01:03:49):
Rams use like two to at well. Early in this season,
I think we could see Zach Robinson potentially play around
with some of that stuff, and it might be Rondell Moore.
I'm not sure what role Mooney's going to play exactly.
Is he, like, who's going to be the X receiver?
I'm curious about that, Like Mooney doesn't seem to prototype
is that kind of a player. I guess it'll be London,
but they I think he's been better when he's moved
out of that role. In the past, they've had other

(01:04:11):
receivers that they just throw macw Hollins there and have
him do it, you know, but now they have kind
of smaller bodied receivers. But overall, it's a good again,
another good offense that we're placing a bet on in
a cheap bed and I feel good about that. And
I think there we have seen some instances where Mooney
looks like a pretty good player.

Speaker 1 (01:04:27):
All Right, we will get out of there on that
we got through, actually more than a dozen receivers here
since we hit on a couple extras. So I thought
that was super you know, informational, informational, a lot of
good actionable nuggets. They're very status.

Speaker 4 (01:04:42):
That's where you're looking for it.

Speaker 1 (01:04:43):
I was trying to I was trying to get at that.

Speaker 2 (01:04:45):
It was.

Speaker 1 (01:04:45):
It was a lot of good numbers and some you know,
you you threw some of the narrative stuff on some
of them, but when you have Jacob on the show.

Speaker 4 (01:04:51):
You know you're getting. Yeah, Jacob's driving the stats. I'm driving.
I'm driving down narrative. That's my role.

Speaker 1 (01:04:57):
See you get a little bit of both on this episode.
I hope everyone to enjoy it. Thank you so much
for making the time, Jacob, Thank you to you Erickson
as always, and thank you everybody for listening. For the guys,
I'm Ryan Warmley. We'll see you again next time. Thanks
for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football Podcast. If
you love the show, the best freeway to support us
is by leaving a positive review on Apple podcasts, at
Fantasypros dot com, slash review, or on Spotify. Follow us

(01:05:21):
on x Instagram, and TikTok at Fantasy Pros and subscribe
to our YouTube channel at YouTube dot com Slash Fantasypros

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Andrew Erickson

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