Pat Fitzmaurice's 2025 Breakout Stars: These 10 Players Are Ready to DOMINATE! (Ep. 1557)

Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Hello everybody. Welcome into the Fantasy Pros Football Podcast. I'm
Ryan Warmley, joined today by Pat fitz Morris and by
Jake Seely. It feels like every time I am taping
these days, it is with you too. I can't remember
the last time I did a show with Ericson or
Deebro or Welsh or Bogman I side of the Dynasty
show where you guys were also both on that last
episode too.

Speaker 2 (00:21):
It always seems to be the three of us.

Speaker 1 (00:22):
We're having a good time here in the offseason, getting
closer to draft season. We are not talking about incoming
rookies today. We were talking about FITs' favorite breakout stars
for the twenty twenty five season, and Jake, you get
to just sit here, no prep, no having to come
up with your own players. You just get to react
mercilessly to Fits.

Speaker 3 (00:41):
Yeah. Well, actually so I was part of the contract
I signed with you guys, as he was like, hey,
by the offense wants you to be on every show
he's on, and I'm like, I guess I gotta say
yes to that because he's a cool dude. But yes,
today I get to have some fun and nitpick every
single one of his picks, but it's fits, So I
have a feeling it's gonna be tough to nitpick too
many of them.

Speaker 1 (00:59):
We are gonna be going through Fits. His top ten
breakout stars. Fits was easy to come up with this list?
Or did you feel like you had fifteen guys and
you had to whittle it down? Or did you feel
like you had like seven and you had to expand it?

Speaker 2 (01:09):
Or was ten the right number to come up with?

Speaker 4 (01:11):
Ten was a good number.

Speaker 5 (01:12):
It was not easy because when you exclude rookies, it's
you know, you've got to get guys who haven't had
seasons that could already be categorized as breakouts, and no
rookies that really narrows the pool of candidates. You know,
I'm certainly not guaranteeing that all ten of the players
were going to discuss are going to become stars, but
I do think they're all worthwhile investments for twenty twenty five,

(01:35):
and my rankings sort of reflect that.

Speaker 4 (01:37):
So, yeah, this is gonna be fun.

Speaker 5 (01:39):
I get to be here up under the Kleague lights
while you guys get to sit in the uh darkened
auditorium and just sort of hackle me. You're like the
you're like the guys from the Muppets, Stadler and Waldorf,
the old guys who sat up in the balcony hackling.

Speaker 1 (01:53):
If I've made this clear to you before the show
that I don't understand this reference.

Speaker 4 (01:58):
You don't know the tool old like.

Speaker 3 (02:00):
I mean, you've probably seen them on something.

Speaker 2 (02:03):
Maybe if I like google it, they would.

Speaker 5 (02:05):
Come on that movies are timeless worm like, I kind
of missed the Muppet.

Speaker 1 (02:10):
I'm not anti. It's not like I'm sitting here saying
I hate the Muppets. I just kind of missed them
growing up.

Speaker 3 (02:15):
So I will say I do appreciate fits. This's point
about I do the top breakout of each position. So
every off season is kind of like what we're doing today.
And that's always my precursors I say, this is who
doesn't qualify, And one of mine is that I don't
think rookies can break out, like can they have an
amazing debut? Sure, but I'm kind of always been that
I don't think a rookie breaks out. I think a

(02:36):
rookie just debut is really well.

Speaker 4 (02:38):
Yeah, I would.

Speaker 5 (02:39):
I would expect to have you guys throw fruit at
me if I throw out Ashton genty as my breakout
star right five.

Speaker 1 (02:47):
Yeah, everybody can find all fits is uh and really
our whole staff's twenty twenty five consensus rankings and tiers.
That's at fantasypros dot com slash rankings. If you want
to see more players that fits is maybe higher than
consensus on or ranking aggressively here early in the offseason
before we dive into the show. Jake, what do you
got going on at the Athletic.

Speaker 3 (03:06):
Yeah, if you ever love mashups for player comps, I
went overboard this year. I got a little drunk with them,
and they go as far as something as simple as
kind of like Jackson Smith and Jigma match with some
of Davanta Smith and I called him Devanta Smith and
Jagba as far as down all the list of coming
up with like Jamal Murray but not the basketball player.
And I think I did like passing Mick thor Downer

(03:29):
or something like that. Like I just went way deep
and probably too far for some people. But the top
eighty five rookies I have for the pre draft are
over there on the Athletic right now.

Speaker 1 (03:37):
Everybody can go check that out at the Athletic. Let's
jump in we're gonna go ten to one here, so
we're gonna finish with the guy that fits his most
confident in as a twenty twenty five breakout, We'll start
at ten though here Who you.

Speaker 5 (03:48):
Got pat Cedric Tillman and Tillman is an interesting case.
Over Cleveland's first six games of twenty twenty four, Tillman
played no more than twenty six snaps in any game,
topped out at a thirty seven snaphare. Then, in Week seven,
Deshaun Watson tears his achilles late in the first half
against the Bengals. Dorian Thompson Robinson came in ineffective, then

(04:09):
he hurts his finger with under five minutes left in
the game, and Jamis Winston comes in as the emergency
third quarterback. Cedric Tillman got a big bump in snaps
in that game, with an eighty two percent snap chair.
He had eight catches for eighty one yards on ten targets.
Only two of the targets and one of the catches,
a twenty five yard catch, came from Jamis Winston. All
the other targets were from either Watson or dtr So

(04:32):
then Jamis starts in Week eight against the Ravens throws
for three hundred and thirty four yards and three touchdowns.
Tilman has seven catches for ninety nine yards two of
those touchdowns. The next day, approximately forty eight million people
put in waiver claims for Cedric Tillman.

Speaker 4 (04:46):
That's just an estimate.

Speaker 5 (04:47):
By the way our data, guys are really good at
Fantasy pros, They're.

Speaker 4 (04:50):
Not that good.

Speaker 5 (04:52):
So then in Week nine against the Chargers, Jamis still
at quarterback, Tilman has six grabs, seventy five yards and
a touchdown on eleven targets. The Browns next game is
against the Saints. Tilman's numbers aren't great. Three catches, forty
seven yards, eight targets. He just kind of got left out.
In that game, Jerry Judy, David Nijoku, and Elijah Moore
combined for twenty one catches, nearly three hundred yards and

(05:14):
two tds. And then the following week, Tillman gets a concussion.
He ends up going on IR. He's inactive for the
next five games and gets held out a week eighteen.

Speaker 4 (05:22):
So we had a short but.

Speaker 5 (05:23):
Very promising burst from Cedric Tillman in his second NFL season,
some of it admittedly turbo fueled by Jameis Winston's hyper
aggressive downfield passing style. Can Tilman give us a sustained
starter worthy fantasy performance in twenty twenty five? I mean,

(05:44):
the bad news is that Jamis Winston is no longer
in Cleveland. The good news is that the Browns added
another hyper aggressive, turnover prone quarterback, Joe Flacco, and Tilman
and Flacko have already played together in Tilman's rookie year
two years ago. One of the two times Tillman had
more than fifty receiving yards in a game that season
was with Flacco at the controls. I don't know if

(06:05):
Flacco is going to quarterback the Browns all year. I
think the Browns might add a rookie QB that want
to give starts late in the season, or they may
decide they simply can't live with the inevitable flood of
Joe Flacco interceptions. But the possibility of Tilman playing a
good chunk of the year with Flacco is pretty enticing.
You know, Tillman was an early third round draft pick six'
three with a seventy ninth percentile speed, scorer big, physical

(06:29):
and we've gotten a glimpse of the, potential like the hope.

Speaker 4 (06:32):
Is the hope is That Cedric.

Speaker 5 (06:33):
Tillman can be sort of a Discount Nico collins this.
Year AND i don't think you want to draft him
to be a, starter BUT i like him as a
high upside. Backup HIS ecr right now is wide receiver sixty,
one one hundred and sixtieth, Overall and if you can
get him as a wide receiver five or wide receiver
six in the later stages of a, draft that's an
investment that could pay out pretty handsomely for. You and

(06:54):
if it's not working out For, tillman not really that
painful to drop a fourteenth.

Speaker 1 (06:58):
Rounder, Yeah tilman currently wide receiver sixty in in the EARLY.

Speaker 2 (07:03):
Ecr obviously that's subject to.

Speaker 1 (07:05):
Change you, know fits highlighted that that great stretch he
had in the middle of last, season you, know finishing
wide receiver, fourteen wide receiver, three wide receiver twelve and
back to back to back. WEEKS i was at that
game In, cleveland The Ravens browns game Last, october AND
i remember on this on you, know one of our
episodes that following week talking about, how you, know even
setting aside the great, numbers the eye test of watching

(07:27):
him in, PERSON i came away, thinking this is like
one of the best receivers at. Football, LIKE i know
that not to be a true, statement but just watching,
him it's. Hard it was hard not to be blown
away by his dominant. Performance that was still when The
ravens secondary was struggling a ton before they had made
the switch With Kyle, Hamilton so that certainly plays into
that big, game but he was really dominant in that
in that few weeks.

Speaker 2 (07:46):
Stretch so where he stands now at wide receiver?

Speaker 1 (07:49):
Sixty, jake do you agree With fitz that this is
a good pick as a potential breakout for twenty twenty?

Speaker 2 (07:53):
Five?

Speaker 3 (07:54):
Yeah this first one is, tough AND i know he's
only took number ten on the, list BUT i mean,
technically if he goes to wide receiver, four it's a.
Breakout you, know this is going to be kind of
a which side of the fence do you want to land?
On where it comes to my explanation of, That i'm
with but also not with fits on this one BECAUSE
i think forty is in play AND i think forty is.
Fine AM i super excited about whyde receiver? Forty? Eh

(08:16):
he's going to be my fourth wide. Receiver we understand
what we're getting with wide receiver. FORTY i think my
issue would be if we're going past. That and one
of the biggest, things like if we were Talking Jameis
winston was, Back, sure, absolutely but you brought up To
Joe flacco AND i know there was the one good
game with, him but also back at that, Time Amari,
Cooper Elijah moore Where Joe flacco's go to so AND

(08:37):
i Know tilman was only this rookie, season BUT i
bring those names up to say, stylistically that's Not Cedric.
Tillman and that's my concern is that this version Of Joe,
flacco when we saw with The colts too and connecting
With Josh, downs is that he kind of stopped looking
At Michael. Pittman AND i think That tillman's, peak AND
i don't think he's as good as separator As Michael
pittman Is Michael pittman Like tilman To pittman would be the,

(08:58):
peak AND i saw That flacco just didn't have that
same connection earlier in his career of going. Downfield SO
i don't think it's a bad. PICK i just think
he could still be third Behind judy and Then. Djoko
and if, so wide receiver three slash four is a
breakout one hundred, Percent he's. Right it's JUST i want
to kind of caution people, like don't go. CRAZY i

(09:19):
don't think wide receiver two is in, play AND i
don't Think fitz was saying.

Speaker 1 (09:22):
That, SO i, Mean ff it's kind of waigheda on
what he thought the long term prospects for later in
the season of the quarterback position In cleveland, Were, jake
do you think it'll Be flaco for most of the.
YEAR i, mean as of the time when this episode's getting,
RELEASED i believe it will be just under a week
until THE Nfl draft kicks, Off so you, know we
will find out soon what their plans, are not just

(09:43):
the number two, pick where it looks, unlikely but you,
know even On day, two if they want to invest
in the quarterback position The, BROWNS i think they probably.
Should what do you kind of expected that position In
cleveland this?

Speaker 3 (09:53):
YEAR i THINK i wouldn't be shocked that they somehow
Went sanders at, two or if they took a quarterback
early in the second whether It's Mel dart or, whoever
it might. BE i wouldn't be surprised at all because
you have to offset This wasston situation not going away
by a rookie contract, somewhere and we know That flacco
And picket are. Holdover so When fitz brought that up
TO i do think whether it's, turnovers whether injury at

(10:16):
this point Of flacco's, Age Kenny pickett maybe gets a starter,
too and looks Like Kenny pickett that you might get
a rookie in the back half of the. Season so
all that being, said that's another strategy that just comes with.
Drafting tilman is some preme value right, now even if
he's only wide receiver. Forty he's a value right. Now
but remember this going to the, season especially if they
do draft a, rookie that this might be a sell

(10:37):
high candidate after four or five weeks if he is
putting together top thirty numbers And i'm wrong and he's
even better than. That so definitively somebody THAT i would
be concerned about to this kind of, question which you didn't,
ask But i'm kind of answering a different. WAY i
would be concerned about his second half of the, season
depending on who they. Draft if It's dart maybe they
connect like A. Winston if it's, not and it's more
like A, sanders who is going to be more in

(10:59):
that mold of keeping it short to intermediate a lot of,
completions that's more Of judy And. Djoku so like kind
of depends on who they draft of where the concern might.

Speaker 1 (11:07):
Lie, fitz did you say where you Have tilman ranked
wide receiver forty seven something like. That it's ten spots
higher In, Debro it's twenty six pots higher Than ericson's
much lower On. Tilim all, right let's go to your
number nine breakout.

Speaker 5 (11:21):
Fits, yeah we're gonna go With Isaac garndo for this.
ONE i think the path to fantasy stardom is pretty
straightforward For. Girndo Jordan mason Left San francisco For minnesota
and free, agency Leaving girndo is the primary backup To christian.
McCaffrey IF i were to set an over under of
thirteen and a half games played for, McCaffrey how are

(11:42):
you guys betting?

Speaker 3 (11:43):
It? Actually, wait, wait what DO I i get plus
money on the over? Right because THEN i would take
the Over.

Speaker 4 (11:51):
Let's say even money minus won ten both. SIDES i, mean.

Speaker 3 (11:54):
Most running, BACKS i would probably take the under just
of the risk to begin, with so you.

Speaker 2 (11:58):
Probably have to take the. Under, yeah, yeah, yeah all.

Speaker 4 (12:01):
Right so, yes me.

Speaker 5 (12:02):
Too and forty Nine ers first five games of twenty
twenty four Before Jordan mason dinged up his, Shoulder mason
was averaging one hundred and seven rushing yards per, game
one hundred and twenty scrimmage yards per, game and five
point one yards per, carry and.

Speaker 4 (12:15):
He was on a ten touchdown.

Speaker 5 (12:17):
Pace So Jordan mason was THE rb five and a
half POINT ppr fantasy scoring over those five games fifteen
point nine fantasy points per. Game But mason couldn't stay
healthy last, season And girndo got a crack at some
meaningful playing time in his rookie. Year there were four
games last year in Which girndo played more than half
of the forty Nine ers offensive, snaps and in those four,

(12:39):
games he averaged sixty three and a half rushing, yards
thirty seven and a half receiving, yards one hundred and
one scrimmage, yards four point seven yards per, carry and
he scored three. Touchdowns girno's two hundred and twenty one
pounds in. FAST i Watched garendo play At wisconsin for
most of his college, careers a backup To Braylen allen
before he transferred To. Louisville his speed was, off BUT

(13:00):
i thought he was kind of a straight line runner back.
Then he did not look like a straight line. Runner last,
year Like, Isaac garndo showed a lot more wiggle and
elusiveness THAN i had ever seen from him when he
was At. Wisconsin it's possible the forty nine ers do
draft a running, back but they suddenly have a lot
of needs AND i wouldn't expect them to draft one
before the fifth or sixth. Round SO i Expect gorndo

(13:22):
to open the years the top backup to, McCaffrey and
if McCaffrey is suddenly seeing medical specialists In germany, Again
grendo is going to be a player you will be
excited to have in your fantasy.

Speaker 1 (13:32):
Lineup really interesting group of names that he's among in
our staff rankings at the running back position right, NOW
i Mean, jake the names that he is, Near Ray,
Davis Trey, benson Camp, SKATABOO. Rj, Harvey Isaac, garendo And
Braylan allen are all in a line FROM rb forty
seven TO rb fifty, Two SO i wonder if that

(13:53):
range will BE i, mean there's, rookies obviously we need
to see their landing. Spots if there will be some
degree of personal preference, There does that feel like the
right group of as For grenda to be ranked Near.

Speaker 3 (14:03):
So, YEAH i hate this pick because he should be higher.
FITS i actually Have Isaac grendo ahead of all those
names as running back forty three because of the upside
of something happens TO cmc as A garndo, guy as
people if they read over the athletic was last. YEAR i,
thought mostly because of his, style he's the perfect fit
for A shanahan, offense like on a lot of. TEAMS

(14:23):
i don't Think. GRANDA i Think grendo's a talented running.
BACK i don't think he has the success he sees
with the forty nine ers on a lot of other
teams because of the. Style fit just love the. Fit
and that's WHY i was so happy when we got
rid Of. MASON i was so concerned because they gave
him that qualifying offer and THEN i was, like, wow all,
right cool things are cleared out, yes if something happens TO,
cmc even for five, Games grendo during that span is

(14:45):
going to be putting up BORDERLINE rb one numbers because
of what he can. Bring and, then of course the fit.
Here the only thing that could throw a wrench into
that is that the forty nine ers do what the
forty nine ers do and they might draft A round
four or five running back who's falling in this draft
without deep this classes because they seem to do it
every single. Year we're just draft another one because he
can make them all work in our. Offense BUT i
love this pick BECAUSE i think WHY i have him

(15:06):
at forty, three because of all the handcuffs of we'll call.
Them he would be top one or two on my list.

Speaker 1 (15:13):
If there was ever a year for The niners to
take Another day three swing at a running, back definitely this. One,
fitz what do you think about? That are you willing
to maybe Move grenda up even higher than you have? Him?

Speaker 5 (15:23):
Yeah right, Now i've just got a kind of a
placeholder ranking for, him like in the mid, FIFTIES i,
think but that is going TO i Think i've got
like twelve rookie running backs ahead of him and some
of those rookies are not going to land in great
spots and they're going to fall below. Him and some
of the rookies are going to land in spots where
they nuke the value of other running. Backs so at
some POINT i would imagine after the, Draft i'm going

(15:46):
to be Moving girndo up probably five to ten spots at.

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Speaker 2 (17:17):
Promos all, Right, fitzy let's go to number eight on your.

Speaker 5 (17:21):
List Tucker craft the one tight end on my, list
and admittedly Calling Tucker craft a potential breakout star is a.
Stretch the upside For Tucker craft is probably somewhere between
solid fantasy starter and guy you're not completely ashamed of
have in your starting. Lineup craft was the tight end
nine last, year fifty, catches seven hundred and seven, yards seven.

(17:43):
Touchdowns he averaged four point one targets and forty one
point six receiving yards per game in twenty twenty, four
his SECOND nfl. Season considering that The packers aren't gonna
Have Christian watson for much of the, YEAR i think
it's plausible That craft averages more like five or six
targets a game this, year and maybe he gets to
fifty plus receiving yards a, game which would make him

(18:03):
an eight hundred and fifty yard. RECEIVER i don't Think
craft has one thousand yard upside Like Brock powers Or train,
McBride but eight hundred yards makes you a mid range
tight end at, worst maybe a high end tight end
one depending on the touchdown count and what sort of
touchdown potential Does Tucker craft. Have, WELL i, mean he
tied for fourth in red zone catches among tight ends last,

(18:26):
year and he did that while playing in the third
run heaviest offense in the. League The packers aren't drafting
a tight end until late day, three if at. All
they have much bigger fish to fry in the town
Of Green, bay where they love their fish, fries by the,
Way so his status is The packers' top tight end is,
safe AND i think it's reasonable to expect a target
bump since The packers wide receiver corps is looking pretty

(18:47):
flimsy these.

Speaker 1 (18:48):
Days jake and our early staff Rankings Tucker. Craft so
there's a consensus top eleven in some warner everybody has
the same, eleven And craft is eleventh in our consensus
ranking right. Now so he's at the bottom of that
kind of top group of starters that people are are
ranking at this. Point does that sound about right to?
You he's, right he's once about Behind Travis, kelcey WHICH

(19:10):
i find. Interesting With kelsey obviously another year, older you,
know we would imagine they're kind of saving him for the.
Playoffs he's talked about how he wants to get in
really good shape again this. OFFSEASON i, MEAN i don't
know how Much i'm gonna be investing In kelsey this,
Year so him Versus, CRAFT i think is an interest.

Speaker 2 (19:25):
Conversation but does that sound like the right range to, him.

Speaker 3 (19:28):
It sounds like a fair. Range this is probably the
one THAT i have the most issues, with just BECAUSE
i JUST i don't see Where craft goes from last.
Year and all that being, said this is from, somebody
And i'm not saying this to Like Victory Lap i'm
saying as somebody who was Behind, Craft like when they
both got Drafted musgrave And, CRAFT i, said this is so,
strange AND i think it's weird that you take the
better receiver later and people were, like, OH i can't

(19:49):
believe these better than fiber shooting the local Move And
i'm saying that to, say like that's WHERE i was coming,
From LIKE i was the fan Of craft Over musgrave
despite having the later draft capital and yet even being
a fan Of, CRAFT i just don't love the breakout
potential because you're not wrong About, watson BUT i still
think you can Get wix more involved just the offense
and talking about in, general even if it's, passingmore they

(20:10):
still have three wide receivers that could be in play
potentially For And i'm not even Saying harman's a big.
Threat it's just there's a lot of people here WHERE
i don't see much room For craft to, grow as
in for us in, Fantasy, like IF i was gonna
take a, Shot i'd rather take a shot on Like
Agitavian sanders having a breakout season than A Tucker. Craft
so it's NOT i don't Hate fits on this one

(20:32):
BECAUSE i have him as a Fringe titan one as.
WELL i JUST i don't see where the breakout potential
it really is that.

Speaker 1 (20:37):
Severe do you, Think, jake that there's room For setting
aside the situation, itself there's room For craft to take
a step. Forward just giving that Tight ends do you
typically take you, know a couple of you, know short
of these generational guys like Brock, bauers it usually takes
a couple of years for Tight ends to really fully
kind of break out at THE nfl. Level he's entering year,
Three does that make you, think, like, again setting aside

(20:58):
the situation that we could see step forward from districtly
as a player this.

Speaker 3 (21:01):
YEAR i definitely think you can see him grow. MORE i,
mean we're talking About sanders McBride's of the worlds just
years two or. Three in some of these situations with Tight,
ends that's kind of the thing is they still do
take till the year THREE a lot of times on
like wide receivers these. Days but, yeah the situation is
just what so you told, Me watson never comes, back
read gets hurt Or dobbs gets, hurt Or wis just

(21:21):
never becomes a. THING i could get a little bit
more on. Board, AGAIN i just think this is an
offense where his max value we kind of almost just,
saw LIKE i would, say like maybe a ten percent,
bump AND i just want to see more of like
a thirty forty percent bump for breakouts if we're you,
know putting. Breakouts and Again i'm nitpicking what the terminology
of breakout is for.

Speaker 1 (21:39):
Me fits last question On craft setting aside injury, possibility
because we know that's the thing for everybody if everybody's
healthy on The packers this, Year Tucker craft will finish
ranked what on the team in?

Speaker 4 (21:52):
TARGETS i think probably. Third i'm gonna say.

Speaker 3 (21:57):
Third ooh that WAS i was gonna say, fourth.

Speaker 4 (22:02):
Behind red And.

Speaker 5 (22:04):
Dobbs And i'll say he gets more targets Than Dontavian
wick's And Josh.

Speaker 1 (22:08):
Jacobs, OKAY i think that would be pretty exciting if
he was getting the third most targets on the. Team
if he is taken another step, Forward let's go to
your number seven Fits.

Speaker 5 (22:18):
Marvin, mims and this is a fun. One mims really
came on late last. Season he had six touchdowns In
denver's last seven regular season games and averaged four catches
sixty two yards a game over those seven. Games and
that was with a snap share between twenty three percent
and forty seven percent in every.

Speaker 4 (22:37):
Game during that.

Speaker 5 (22:38):
Stretch From week eleven, On Marvin mims was wide receiver
twenty one and a half POINT ppr fantasy points per
game without playing even half of The broncos offensive snaps
in any of those. Games now here's a fun. Stat
during that, stretch he averaged zero point six y three
half POINT ppr fantasy points per snap over those seven.

(23:01):
Games to put that into, Perspective Jamar chase for the
season average zero point one four half POINT ppr fantasy
points per, snap zero point sixty three For mims over
that seven game, stretch zero point one four For chase
over the full. Season, No i'm not trying to make
the case That Marvin mims is better Than Jamar, Chase
and obviously for small it's kind of a small sample size,

(23:24):
Too but What mims did at the end of the
year was pretty eye. Opening and by the, Way Marvin
mims just turned twenty, Three, like what If Sean payton
expands his role in the offense this. Year i'm really
intrigued by mims. Potential HIS ecr is wide receiver, sixty
sitting there right With Cedric tillman one hundred and fifty. Eighth,
overall there's very little risk to taking him that late

(23:45):
in year, draft and the potential reward is pretty.

Speaker 4 (23:48):
Enticing, jake what do you make Of?

Speaker 1 (23:50):
MIMS i think a lot Of dynasty managers were pre
turned off by like just did no usage at all
in that first, Year and at least that was my
experience in the LEAGUES i was in going into year. Two,
obviously like ad a better stretching year two they did
at any point in year. One what do you think
about him going into year?

Speaker 3 (24:06):
Three so it's interesting that you bring that, Up, fits
and then it's, like, Well Sean payton still didn't give
him more, Opportunities like you can kind of make the
argument the other way, too LIKE i could see the,
CASE i could see the chance Where mims breaks. Out
he was actually in like my Honorable mention list last
year for my Breakout. Calm he didn't make my top
five y re, series BUT i kind of put like

(24:26):
a note in there about, him mostly because a lot
of people do keep asking about. Him you bring that
Up war And, within you, Know dynasty and everything like.
THAT i think the biggest thing that attracts everybody is
the big play potential to touchdown. Potential but he's still
kind of a chain. Mover AND i know that sounds
weird because everybody's, like he can't be a chain. Mover
look at the big. Plays that's because he doesn't, separate
like he's just go get, it and he does a

(24:47):
really good job of going to get, it and he
does have the downfield speed to go get. It But
i'm just concerned, that you, know they bring In evan
En grom and he's, like, Ah i'm gonna be the.
Joker Sean payton loves the. Joker they Have, sutton AND
i know we're doing this as of. Today as a,
TODAY i am much more on board in it Then
i'm trying to put out of my mind THAT i
really just don't believe they're going into this year With
mims as their number. Two but we are saying as of,

(25:09):
today the draft hasn't happened. Yet so as of, today
if the roster is what it is And mims can
be the number, TWO i will get on. Board similar
to like A tillman in the, FORTIES i want to
push him as high as top twenty five or. Thirty
i'm not saying that that's What fits. Said i'm just
SAYING i could see him being a wide receiver, four
mostly BECAUSE i still think there's some limitations to. Him,
conversely like they do draft a round two or three wide,

(25:29):
RECEIVER i think M i think that will tell. Us
this will tell us What Sean payton believes at the
end of the. Season is fits one hundred percent right
about his. Production, yes we all saw, it we all wanted,
more but it's kind of like we all wanted more
and Still peyton wouldn't do. It so we'll find out
What peyton thinks in the. Draft we'll find out If
peyton really believes That mims can be the number two
or if this is just his number. Three you get

(25:51):
plays when you're on the, field but that's about.

Speaker 2 (25:53):
It, fitz do you know where you Have mims ranked.

Speaker 5 (25:55):
Wide receiver fifty five pretty aggressive right, now but Admittedly
jake could be, Right, LIKE i would not be shocked
at off The broncos added A day one Or day
two wide, Receiver so all of a sudden you throw
a Mechag buca into the picture along With Courtland sutton
And Evan, ingram and suddenly the prospects For mims growing

(26:17):
his snaphare not looking all that. Great so this is
somewhat dependent, on, uh you, know he's got to get
that snapshare up to be someone consistently fantasy. Relevant whether
he can do that if he's fourth in the target
pecking order pretty, doubtful, Honestly but it would take some
injuries most likely at that.

Speaker 4 (26:38):
Point so you can ask the question absolutely.

Speaker 3 (26:41):
To the, question how about if they don't do A
day one or Do day two wide, receiver but they
do pull Like omary And, hampton because then you're talking
about passes going to the backfield, too so like would
that kind of like so the roster is, constructed they
don't draft the wide receiver till round, five but they
draft the significant enough running back that you have some concerns.

Speaker 5 (26:57):
There, YEAH i mean that's sort of baked In. JAKE
i Know peyton's backs always catch a lot of. Passes
that's going to happen no matter. Who like last year
was kind of a low water MARK i think for
receptions and A Sean payton, backfield and that's probably going
to tick up it because we always saw his backfields
In New orleans like among the most heavily targeted backfields

(27:19):
in the league every year he was.

Speaker 1 (27:20):
There welcome now to this Week's Chasing, challenges brought to
you By. Microsoft just like the athletes to push boundaries
and redefine what's, possible business decision makers today are turning
challenges into. Opportunities microsoft meets you where you are with
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safe SECURE ai. Solutions players and teams are facing their own.

(27:41):
Challenges in this, segment we spotlight athletes or teams that
are currently undergoing a, challenge what this means from a
fantasy or betting, standpoint and examine how we think they
can overcome. Them whatever challenge you're, Facing microsoft empowers you
with the expertise to say bring it. On this, week
we're discussing the challenge faced By Drake may as he
enters the twenty time twenty five season with a lot
of hype but also some question. Marks may was a

(28:03):
top pick in last year's, draft and he showed flashes
of y in moments during the twenty twenty four. Season
he was unafraid to throw the ball deep and also
unafraid to run with the, ball two traits very attractive
to fantasy, managers But may's supporting cast was abysmal and
it doesn't look to be drastically improved in twenty twenty.
Five prior to the twenty twenty five, draft The patriots
still find themselves with massive holes on the offensive. Line

(28:25):
they're also hoping For Stefan diggs to turn back the
clock and to Give may some kind of weapon in
the passing. Game may has the talent and work ethic
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Managers that's it for this week's chasing. Challenges Remember MICROSOFT'S
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(28:47):
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Visit microsoft dot com slash challe to learn. More all, Right,
Fitz we're going to dive Into drake may even more
a little bit later in this, segment but for, now
let's get to a different quarterback that you have on

(29:08):
your breakout, list.

Speaker 4 (29:09):
In a different second year. Quarterback It's Michael Pennock.

Speaker 5 (29:12):
Junior he is not going to give you much value
as a, runner we know, that But Michael Pennock junior
has a golden.

Speaker 4 (29:17):
Arm this dude can really spin.

Speaker 5 (29:20):
It he averaged three hundred and forty passing yards a
game over his final two college seasons At. Washington pennox
only started three games at the end of his rookie,
season so we didn't get a big sample, size but
the results were pretty. Encouraging two hundred and forty five
point seven passing yards per start and seven point four
yards per attempt good numbers for rookie SEEING nfl defenses

(29:41):
for the first. Time pennox is great at avoiding, sacks
and his college interception rate was. Low those two attributes
might not mean much to fantasy managers on the, surface
but you know sax and interceptions are drive, killers and
avoiding them keeps the ball in your quarterback's, hands gives
him more chances to accrew fantasy. Points So i'm Ranking

(30:02):
Michael Pennocks junior IN qb two, range BUT i do
think there's low END qb one upside here even Though
pennix doesn't offer much as a. Runner and this time
of year from, NOW i Think Michael pennix will be
widely regarded as one of the ten best pure passers
in the.

Speaker 3 (30:17):
League that's pretty aggressive.

Speaker 1 (30:19):
Praise jacob curious not only what you think Of penix
now he's currently ranked in a back end.

Speaker 2 (30:24):
OF qb two.

Speaker 1 (30:24):
Range he's A qb twenty three IN ecr right, now
but also what did you think of him going into
last season coming out of the.

Speaker 3 (30:31):
Draft so the smashes for my, rookies he was one
of the ones like this kind of started last year
and again Snowball Derek. Stafford i'll kind of tell you
like AND i, Said derek carr is probably the low
end for. Him but that was my points twenty. Seventeen
derek Carr is bad season was kind of my low
watermark for WHAT i Thought pennox would do as a
full time, starter AND i thought that some of the
best seasons Of Matt stafford would be some of the

(30:52):
best seasons we can see From penix right, now probably
somewhere in, between BUT i do think he still has that.
Ceiling As fits brought, up it does have to do
all with his. Arm though for us in fantasy is
that we are going to be concerned that he doesn't,
run so to get THE qb one, status it's going
to have to be forty four hundred yards thirty thirty five.
Touchdowns BUT i do think he has the ability to

(31:12):
do SO i would take him Over Trevor. LAWRENCE i
would take him over to it at this point in,
fantasy just because of What i've been dealing with those,
situations and we don't know what's going With Tyree hill
and The dolphins at this. Point BUT i think that
back IN qb two is where he should, be just
because if he told me he even had three hundred rushing,
Yards i'd put him up to LIKE qb sixteen seventeen.

(31:35):
Range it's just the almost zero rushing puts him down
in that group of like he has to do it LIKE. Cj,
Stroud like you can make an Argument stroud Versus pennix
next year depending on what happens with both teams in the,
drafts because we've seen From stroud terrific pocket, passer but
what kind of team are they going to put around
him next year with all the concerns on the offensive.
Line SO i think that's where they fall in the.
Range that's that you could see that FRINGE qb one

(31:57):
on a great passing. Season but understand you're talking about
somebody that's LOWING qb two isn't necessarily a bad. Thing
it just means you're not getting the rushing.

Speaker 1 (32:04):
Upside so if it's if you in a superflex Had
panics as YOUR qb two as of right, now honestly
all of one to, ten what's your happiness level with?
That how confident are you in your quarterback? Group if
he's your number, two.

Speaker 5 (32:18):
Five or, Six i'd be pretty pretty content as long
as MY qb one was a top five. Guy Josh,
Allen Lamar, Jackson Jade, Daniels Jalen, Hurts Joe.

Speaker 2 (32:30):
Burrow, okay let's go to your number five breakout.

Speaker 5 (32:35):
Candidate Jalen, warren So Najie harris is no longer A,
steeler he's with The. Chargers Jalen warren sits atop The
steelers running back top to chart at.

Speaker 4 (32:45):
Least as of.

Speaker 5 (32:45):
Now Will pittsburgh draft a running, Back, probably but will
they draft a running back who out Touches warren this?
YEAR i kind of think it's. Unlikely The steelers don't
have a second round. Pick they need quarterback, help they
need defensive line. Help they could use a slot. Receiver
they could stand ad depth on THE o line and
in the. Secondary warren seems destined to play a bigger

(33:08):
role in The pittsburgh offense this, season maybe only slightly
bigger because he is five to, eight two.

Speaker 4 (33:13):
Hundred and fifteen.

Speaker 5 (33:14):
Pounds he's not getting twenty carries a, game But warren
has averaged sixty one point seven scrimmage yards per game
over the last two years while sharing work with Naj,
harris basically being the one beat In nag's ONE a
and naj didn't miss any games over that, stretch so
there were no usage spikes For Jalen. WARREN i Think
warren can surpass the eleven hundred and fifty three scrimmage

(33:36):
yards and sixty one receptions he had in twenty twenty,
three and it certainly wouldn't be hard for him to
top his previous single season high in, touchdowns which is only.
Four So Jalen warren's averaged four point eight yards per
carry over his, career but he's never averaged more than
eight point eight carries per game in any of his
THREE nfl. Seasons we could very easily get a breakout

(33:57):
season From Jalen warren in twenty twenty five if you
can to average double digit.

Speaker 4 (34:01):
Carries, jake what do you make Of?

Speaker 1 (34:03):
WARREN i, mean HE'S i feel like he's a guy
who's been talked about as potential, sleeper a guy that you,
KNOW i Know debra has been really high on in
terms of like draft day values in. Fantasy With Naji,
gon do you agree With fits that there will be
a real runway here For warren or do you think
The steelers will look to add a different running? Back
and and if there is a real, runway do you

(34:24):
Think warren will take advantage of? It?

Speaker 3 (34:26):
So, yes, no? Yes, actually like right NOW i Have
warren at twenty, ONE i Go, Actually Naje Harriskenneth, Walker, Jaalen, Warren,
Montgomery Aaron, Jones Tony, Pollard, Tyrone, tracy and so forth from.
There so he's kind of right on that almost last
lead starting to talk split. Backfields but Where i'm with
fits in the fact that because of their draft, CAPITAL

(34:48):
i don't see them drafting A scataboo or somebody with
that kind of power compliment to. Him that would be
a significant fifty to fifty split or even worse For
warren just because to do so so it would mean
their first or third. Round and there's so many other
issues As fits brought, up including. Quarterback if it's A
day three power, guy it's A day three power. Guy like,

(35:08):
again he's probably the. Compliment whereas we've seen THE nfl
kind of move into more of a it used to
be the power was complimented by the pass. Catcher we're
kind of getting more into the pass, catcher elusive running
back complimented by the power. Guy AND i think The
steelers are kind of going down that road With warren
WHERE i think he could even be better than WHERE
i have him at twenty. One like if you told

(35:29):
me the difference Between warren and you want to Argue Chuwbo,
Hubbard i'd be, Like i'm not going to argue too
long if you want to make one case versus the.
OTHER i think they're in the same tier for. Me
So i'm With fits on this one. Completely it feels
good BECAUSE i feel Like i've been kind of coming
after him for the last two or. Three But i'm
fully on board with The Jaeleen warren AND i think
this is a good. SPOT i think that's actually above
consensus to have him AT rb twenty. One actually it.

Speaker 1 (35:52):
IS i Believe i'm looking right now on the staff,
RANKINGS i wanted to see the gap between Where nase
is ranked and Where Jalen warren and is ranked this, Year,
fits it looks like you have them about three spots
apart as of the most recent rankings. Update does that
gap sound right to, You, jake you know three spots.
Apart do you see them as relatively close where you're

(36:12):
going to have them ranked through A D you see
wider gap?

Speaker 2 (36:14):
THERE i have.

Speaker 3 (36:16):
ONE i Got Harris Walker. Warren, yeah like, that we
have the same. GROUP i Think harris is. SAFER i
Think warren has the higher. CEILING i Think harris is
safer because we know he's going to get probably close
to twenty touches a game with The. Chargers but surprisingly The,
chargers and it could just be the chicken or the,
situation they weren't very run heavy once they got inside

(36:37):
the five and inside the goal, line which was kind
of strange given The chargers in their makeup last. Year
they were actually one of the lower teams in that,
aspect but again that might be because they didn't Trust
dobbins to do, so or didn't trust their backfield as
much as they, should whereas now they Have harris and
it might swing the other. Direction, Actually harris on The
steelers had almost as many carries and touches inside the
five and ten as the Entire chargers backfield to give

(36:59):
you an, Idea so if that carries, OVER i Mean
harris might be in conversation OF rb one just because
of volume, alone and that's WHY i would take. Them
BUT i Think warren is still in that same.

Speaker 5 (37:07):
Tier for, ME i tweaked my ranking Of warren right
before the, show and Now i've got them directly Behind. Nause,
okay BUT i think both of those guys rankings are
going to be very draft sensitive AND i would expect
to change one or both depending on what does or
doesn't happen with running backs on The chargers And.

Speaker 1 (37:27):
Steelers speaking of the, draft you can watch the first
round of THE nfl drafts live with our experts breaking
down every. Pick get instant fantasy reactions and team fits
From joey P pat, fitzmore, As Derek, brown and others
as the draft. Unfolds coverage starts On, Thursday april twenty,
fourth at seven thirty Pm eastern on The Fantasy pros

(37:47):
YouTube channel at YouTube dot com Slash Fantasy.

Speaker 2 (37:50):
Pros That's night.

Speaker 1 (37:51):
One we will also be live on night two as,
well so be sure to check out our coverage of
the twenty twenty FIVE Nfl. Draft all, right, fits we're
into your top four or here breakout candidates for twenty twenty.

Speaker 2 (38:02):
Five who's number?

Speaker 4 (38:03):
Four Cartavius Tank.

Speaker 5 (38:05):
Bigsby let's start with the obvious caveat That tank is
not much of a pass, catcher so his path to
start him is a little more narrow than it is
for some of the more versatile running. Backs But Tank
bigsby showed last year that he is a very good.
RUNNER i think he can be the engine of The
jacksonville running game this, year and he will be playing
in an offense that could be much improved the season

(38:27):
With Liam cohen running the offense And Trevor lawrence healthy.
Again Travis etn is going into the final year of his,
contract so there is some incentive for The jaguars to
shift more of the workload over To, Bigsby but the
bigger incentive to do that is the fact That bigsby
was the far more effective runner last. Year he averaged
four point six yards Per Kerry etn was at three

(38:48):
point seven yards per. Carry biggsby averaged three point seven
four yards after Contact Perkerrey etn just two point four
eight yards after contact Per. Krey bigsby forced four forty
six missed Tackles etn just. Seventeen biggsby averaged zero point
seventy four rushing yards over expected per, carry which was
the ninth best mark in the. League etn averaged minus

(39:12):
zero point two eight rushing yards over expected per. Carry
he was underwater in that. Category So bigsby was a
highly effective runner last. Year he could have an expanded
role and The jags offense could take a step forward,
overall which would Give bigsby some ADDITIONAL td.

Speaker 4 (39:27):
Upside he had seven last.

Speaker 5 (39:29):
Year not hard to Imagine Tank bigsby having a ten
touchdown season in twenty twenty.

Speaker 1 (39:33):
FIVE i, Think, jake that we have talked about The
jacksonville backfield on a previous. Episode i'm struggling to remember
kind of what your approach to both of these two guys,
were but Specifically bigsby in this, case since he's the
one who's On FITs'.

Speaker 2 (39:47):
List BUT i think we have had this conversation.

Speaker 3 (39:49):
Before, yeah it goes all the way back to my
opinion OF etn coming out of. College it was kind
of like A Tevin coleman, situation and that kind of
player has some limitations in THE. Nfl AND i think
what we're seeing here is to go back to The.
Warren this is actually the flip Where bigsby more of
that better running, Back carrie running back versus the better

(40:09):
player being like the elusive space OF etn more kind
of like a cut and go like The Tevin Coleman
like if you told ME etn was on The shanahan
system thumbs, up AND i, like that's actually kind of
Why i'm with Him fits like a breakout here is
BECAUSE i could See biggsby taking a bigger share of the.
WORKLOAD i am glad he actually beat me to the
punch he threw in the caveat. THAT i THINK. Jk

(40:30):
dobbins season last year might be the peak Of bigsby
and the fact that how little he's used in the passing,
game and so that's the only concern is we're probably
talking best CASE rb fifteen, sixteen and assuming he gets
a lot of the goal line, work worst case is
he's kind of that frustrating FRINGE rb two where you
like him every single, week but there's gonna be some

(40:50):
quiet games where maybe they get behind and all of a,
sudden he only has ten touches that. Game So i'm with,
him AND i will Have bigsby on my, list assuming
they don't do, anything Because cowen is going into this
team and he has no allegiance to either one of,
them and maybe they draft, Somebody but as of, TODAY
i could See bigsby being a top twenty twenty two
running back next.

Speaker 2 (41:08):
Season let's get into our top.

Speaker 1 (41:11):
Three there are two receivers and a quarterback on the
list for fits, Fits let's go to your number.

Speaker 5 (41:16):
Three, YEAH i Love Jake's Tevin coleman. Reference there's a
Name i've not heard in a, long long.

Speaker 4 (41:22):
Time number three Is Ricky. Pearsall.

Speaker 5 (41:26):
So pearsall was a late first round draft pick last.
Year the start of his season was delayed when he
was shot in a robbery. Attempt fortunately he wasn't seriously.
Hurt So piersall only played eleven games as a, rookie
and he really took off in the last two of those.
Games eight catches one hundred and forty one yards and
a touchdown versus The, lions six catches sixty nine yards

(41:47):
and a touchdown against The. Cardinals piersall is six to
one with four to four, speed and now he's poised
for a full time role in the forty nine ers.
Offense Deebo samuel's, Gone Brandon ayuk is coming off At.
TOURNAY i Think pearsol is going to be better Than Juwan.
Jennings still a lot of target competition For pearsall In
San francisco With, Kittle, Ayuk, jennings. McCaffrey BUT i think

(42:10):
we'll see some sporadic outbursts From pearsaw early, on and
if an injury or two Gives pearsaw a steady or
diet of targets he could really.

Speaker 1 (42:18):
POP i Think Pearsall jake is somebody that a lot
of people are going to be excited about and will
have on these types of breakout lists as be it
closer to fantasy draft. Season are you in agreement with
fits on?

Speaker 3 (42:30):
It? Oh, yeah, MAN i like Piersol and this is
gonna sound like a, knock but let me get through
it for everybody, listening is THAT i compared Him Darius.
Slayton but Put Darius slayton on the forty nine ers
and you'd be a lot more excited Than Darius slayton
on The, giants, who by the, way led The giants
and receiving what four out of five or five out
a six years or something like. That because it's The,
Giants Darius slayton is not super excitable to hear, About,

(42:51):
like oh love Some Darius. Slayton but, again you put
them on the forty nine ers as potentially their number,
two and you'd be a hell of a lot more.
Excited the REASON i bring that is Because i'm just
worried about piersil in the short to intermediate. Game BUT
i say, that AND i saw a little bit better
than my initial thought of coming out of college And
ford and, everything is THAT i thought he did better
as a rookie even the limit time that we saw,

(43:11):
him where maybe he's added or maybe he always had,
IT i just didn't always see, it but like added
that dimension to his game instead of just being a
fifteen plus yard dominant, option because let's be, clear going
downfield and stacking the corners and getting behind him and,
everything like he is great at. That like that's the
end of his career if that's all he can do
and Date washington on the forty nine. Ers, Cool BUT

(43:32):
i actually think there's more to, it AND i actually
think there's a chance Where jennings and piersil are both.
Valuable depending on what happens With Brandon, ayuk we might
be sitting here going And i'm not saying fits was
Doing this'd be like is It piersols And Jennings and
the answer might just be. Both So i'm investing at their,
costs both of them right. Now AND i Love piersoll's
talent AND i think we would have saw a little
bit more of that excitement last year if, not like you,

(43:52):
said not at further starting the season with the gunshot, Wound.

Speaker 1 (43:55):
Fitz what would you, say, like, absolutely best case, scenario
everything that could go right goes right For. Pearsall where
does he finish this season ranked amongst wide?

Speaker 4 (44:04):
Receivers, Oh, Man.

Speaker 5 (44:06):
LIKE i hate to do this because everything going right
would probably mean injuries to some of his. Teammates but,
like if he winds up as a top two target
earner in that, OFFENSE i think he could have a
thousand yard season for sure and threaten ten. Touchdowns but,
yeah it Would it would probably take an, Injury BUT
i think on the, merits if everyone stays, HEALTHY i

(44:26):
still think he could be an eight hundred yard.

Speaker 3 (44:27):
GUY i think with the, injuries he could Have Mike
evans season seventy eighty eleven hundred yards, seven eight, touchdowns nine.
TOUCHDOWNS i think that's in.

Speaker 1 (44:36):
Play, Yeah i'm really excited to Watch pearsall this. Year
i'm very intrigued to see how his season plays. Out
let's get to that quarterback FITS i mentioned him, Earlier Drake.
MAY i will just tell you right, NOW i will
be drafting an unhealthy amount Of Drake may this. SEASON
i am like totally in on. Him as a, breakout
especially where he's been ranked and going early.

Speaker 2 (44:56):
On that could.

Speaker 1 (44:57):
Change if that, rises Maybe i'll feel, Differently but as
of right, now he is one of my favorite quarterback
targets to get this. YEAR i will be dangerous and
irresponsible in drafting him in twenty twenty five.

Speaker 2 (45:07):
Drafts tell me WHY i am right in that.

Speaker 5 (45:10):
Approach because HIS ecr IS qb sixteen AND i have
him AT qb, seven AND i actually had it, higher
but THEN i didn't want to be totally irrational and
Move Patrick mahomes back ahead of, him even Though mahomes
hasn't really been anything more than a low END qb
one for the past two. Years so, yeah, Absolutely drake
made a draft target for me, too, worm AND i

(45:30):
certainly won't need to actually draft him as THE qb
six OR qb.

Speaker 4 (45:34):
Seven that's the nice thing about.

Speaker 5 (45:35):
It may is just an aggressive runner who has some
serious rushing upside for. Fantasy he can be A konami code,
guy hat tip or a tree. Bar may had four
hundred and twenty one rushing yards in thirteen games last.
YEAR i think he can get to seven hundred rushing
yards this, year And may was surprisingly good as a
passer in twenty twenty, four considering how completely awful his

(45:59):
supporting cast, was he was operating behind a bad offensive
line and throwing in one of the worst groups of
wide receivers in the. League now he gets to throw
To Stefan, diggs and maybe it's not Vintage Stefan, diggs
but you, know like it helps to have a guy
who can actually run routes and the guy who sort
of helped turn he Uped Josh allen turn the corner

(46:22):
in his. Career, plus The patriots are probably going to
draft at least one more wide. Receiver they're also going
to draft some offensive, linemen and they Added Morgan moses
And Garrett bradbury in the. Offseason so From week six
of last, year When may made his first start Through week,
seventeen he averaged sixteen point Eight fantasy points per game

(46:43):
and scored at least seventeen points seven fantasy points in
seven of those eleven, Games and again that was with
an abysmal supporting. Cast Drake may is going to be a.
Star it's gonna happen, quickly and he's going to be
a terrific value in twenty twenty, five fantasy.

Speaker 1 (46:57):
Drafts if we say fits, that let's just Establish Drake
may finishes as like a top six or top eight.
Quarterback he's in that high end range in the pie
chart of areas of. Improvement what percentage of that has
to be the surrounding talent actually being improved compared to
last year when it was so terrible versus him taking

(47:17):
certain steps forward because he's not flawless as a, quarterback
even Though i'm obviously totally bought in on him as
a fantasy quarterback, here what percentage of that needs to
be improving from him versus from the environment and the
people around.

Speaker 5 (47:29):
HIM i think more the environment sixty, percent, because like,
Obviously may is to get some of the bugs out
of his, game and that's going to happen over the
next two to three years and probably not just all
in one fell swoop in twenty twenty. Five BUT i
mean that supporting cast last. YEAR i, mean come, on
When Pop douglas, is you're leading your go to, receiver you,

(47:52):
know a five eight slot guy who at most should
be like your fourth, Receiver, like.

Speaker 4 (47:57):
They've got to upgrade.

Speaker 5 (47:59):
That so you, Know i'm confident it's gonna be a
little better baby steps with the improved supporting cast and
with improvements From may himself this. Year but still even
with the baby, steps mid RANGE qb one, upside no
question about, it maybe even like top five if he
outkicks rushing.

Speaker 1 (48:17):
Expectations, YEAH i, mean LIKE i, SAID i like him
in total agreement, here and of, Course, JAKE i want
to hear what you have to. SAY i just feel, like,
like if you guarantee health On Drake, MAY i don't
think there's any world where he's not a top twelve
quarterback this, year and that's like bare, minimum that's without
taking a step. FORWARD i just think the rushing that
he's going to contribute is SO i, mean it's gonna
be super helpful, Obviously so that's that's not really going

(48:38):
out on a, LIMB i guess from that angle to.
It But, jake what do you think About Drake may this?

Speaker 3 (48:41):
Year, yeah there's a lot of aspects in there THAT
i want to kind of touch on because there's a
lot of good, ones AND i think at a context.
Here so first is if we're talking top, FIVE i
know that's not as draft, capital but even six or,
Seven i'm gonna have Zero Drake. May i'm just not
going to be that. Aggressive that being, Said i'm actually
surprised that fits answer when you said how much of
the pie needs to be, whatever let's say ten. Percent

(49:04):
and here's, why BECAUSE i and this What i'm about
to say is gonna sound Like i'm coming for, fist
But i'm. Not if you really think you're he's gonna
run for, five, six even seven hundred, yards we'll say
six to play the middle game, there then you don't
need his cast to improve BECAUSE i compared him to
Better Sam, howell college player that he just replaced before,

(49:25):
that but Better Sam. Howell Sam howell in a miserable
season without that rushing was top fifteen. Quarterback you give
him six hundred Yards Sam howell with twenty one touchdowns
and twenty one, interceptions not throwing for four thousand. Yards
you give him six hundred rushing yards and five rushing.
Touchdowns guess Where Sam howel would have finished that YEAR qb.
Nine So i'm actually kind of with, fits but differently

(49:48):
LIKE i don't think his cast needs to, improve DO
i want it? To, absolutely it's a miserable. Cast AND
i even include that At diggs BECAUSE i don't Think
diggs is who he. WAS i Think diggs needs to
be a two at this, point maybe even, three but
hopefully just a. Two hopefully there's enough left for. That
BUT i don't think he has to do that much.
Better they add one piece in the, draft even if
it's round two or, three AND i do THINK qb

(50:10):
one is within. Play that being, said, like even that
one piece is not gonna get him quite THE qb
five for, me even though LIKE i think that correct
me If i'm, WRONG, FIST i do think you said
his ceiling could be top, five like if everything went,
RIGHT i don't think that's this. YEAR i think just
because of their, weapons there's just not enough left to
improve his weapons that. Much even if they draft a wide,
receiver even if It's tech, McMillan i still think only

(50:32):
one more year to hit that top. Five BUT qb
one is within, play even if they don't draft the
wide receiver till day. Three And i'm gonna say that
as somebody who's not the Biggest drake may fan wow.

Speaker 1 (50:43):
In thinking about high end ceiling, FITS i will want
to kind of put a boone in the conversation with.
This of the names who are not in the top
twelve quarterbacks right. Now some of those names Include Jordan,
Love Caleb, Williams Drake, May, Fields Trevor, lawrence C. J.
Stroud of those types of names who are not currently
top two, quarterbacks IF i told you one of them
had a surprise finish they were top three this, year
how high on the list Would Drake may rank for

(51:05):
you of those guys that you think could finish that
high in terms of just pure, Ceiling.

Speaker 4 (51:09):
YEAH i, mean.

Speaker 5 (51:11):
LIKE i really only think the one the best bet
probably to, Finish like ahead Of Drake, may there Is
caleb because he also returns rushing value and BECAUSE i
expect that offense to take a big step forward With Ben. Johnson,
LIKE i don't think it's It's love because The packers
were the third run heaviest team in the league last,
year and that was with a not great defense average at. Best,

(51:35):
LIKE i don't see them suddenly becoming pass, happy especially
with their depleted wide receiver.

Speaker 4 (51:41):
Corps.

Speaker 3 (51:42):
FIELDS i thought you would Say fields at eight nine
hundred rushing yards and the biggest question fields play a full.
Season BUT i mean if he does eight, nine he
could even push for a THOUSAND i mean we're talking
about top. SEVEN i think he was in points per
game in a miserable season because of the. Rushing that's
WHY i put. TWO i said, THAT.

Speaker 2 (51:59):
I i that was what my expectation. Was fitz was
gonna say, Too.

Speaker 4 (52:05):
YEAH i.

Speaker 5 (52:06):
Was it was hard to process that. QUESTION i was
still trying to Digest jake's Better Sam, hall which is
basically like a pulse and four functioning.

Speaker 3 (52:15):
Limbs, no not Turnover Sam, howell which that's what you
would like better Passing sam Smarter Sam, Howell like there's
a lot of similarities between the. Two it's Just Drake
may's better as a quarterback Than Sam. Howell so that's
that's what that.

Speaker 1 (52:29):
Was, yeah that Was that was a bad job by
me phrasing the. Question BUT i think we got there
in the sorry all, right number one Same howell plus. Yeah,
yeah number one breakout star for twenty twenty five fits.

Speaker 5 (52:41):
Is, yeah this was quite a build up to get
to number. One and this is probably the most boring
selection of all BECAUSE i think he's gonna be a
chalky breakout.

Speaker 4 (52:48):
Pick It's Romo, dounza.

Speaker 5 (52:51):
AND i do think everyone's gonna Have o donsay as
a guy they're expecting to improve this year in terms
of fantasy. Value he was the ninth overall pick in
last YEAR'S nfl, drafts so he obviously has immense. Talents
and his rookie year wasn't even that awful by any.
Means fifty four catches seven hundred and thirty four yards,
especially you know back in fifteen twenty years, ago that

(53:13):
would be considered a fine rookie. Year and it's really
not bad when you consider that he was sharing targets
WITH Dj moore And Keenan, allen and when you consider
that rookie Quarterback Caleb williams was not exactly setting the
world on. Fire so Now Keenan allen's out of the,
Picture caleb is a year of experience under his. Belt
The bears aggressively upgraded THEIR o line and free, agency

(53:35):
which should really Help caleb and The chicago offense is
now going to be choreographed By Ben, johnson widely regarded as.

Speaker 4 (53:43):
One of the better play callers in the. League SO
i think we can.

Speaker 5 (53:46):
Expect a big step forward From Romo dunes in year. Two,
yeah this its wheels up For.

Speaker 1 (53:54):
ROME i not THAT i want to go really quickly
on the number one, guy because this should be the
most exciting, one like you, said the build up to,
it BUT i think we all are definitely gonna be
an aggrievment on. Here.

Speaker 2 (54:03):
JAKE i know that you also are excited about A
danze this.

Speaker 3 (54:05):
Year, yeah you talked about we always keep doing shows.
Together if you remember a few weeks, AGO i gonna
put you on the. Spot you won't probably, remember but
remember WHAT i compared him to AND i just said
he's Bigger Garrett, wilson which if you told me the
Bigger Garrett, Wilson we're all gonna go, yeah, yeah sign me,
up and especially On Ben johnson's offense With Kaylea williams
to sign me up. Again Like Roma dunsay coming, out

(54:26):
AND i think there's a non zero chance he has
the better season THE Dj. MOORE i wouldn't put money on,
it but there's a non zero. Chance BUT i want
a caution with one thing because you just said something
MORE i want to put for everybody out. There It's.
April this is assuming that The bears don't shock us
with a move over the next month or. Two Roma
dunsay is going to get a lot of helium from

(54:46):
now Until. August my cautionary tale would, be don't go
spending top, twenty top fifteen wide receiver because like all
everybody loves, HIM i have to go get A doomsday
and then you're buying him at what his peak output
probably is and you still have to account For, hey
what If Caleb williams doesn't? Improve what If Ben johnson's
system doesn't translate one hundred percent year? One what if

(55:08):
it takes a? Year AND i just want to throw
that out. There is, like we all love A, dunsay
but remember some of these players where the entire industry
loves is sometimes created the worst draft costs return on
value that you can potentially get.

Speaker 2 (55:22):
Fits what do you think about? That BECAUSE i Think
jake is definitely spot.

Speaker 1 (55:24):
ON i, mean there are usually those players every year
that you feel like you're gonna HAVE fomo if you
don't get, them and then you start to reach for
them to make sure that you get, them or you
overpay in a salary cap, draft and then you're basically
eliminating the possibility of getting real value on that. Pick
do you think A duneesay falls under that umbrella for?

Speaker 5 (55:41):
YOU i Think jake did a pretty good job of
forecasting the draft landscape four months from, now When Roma
dunsay is everyone's favorite pick to rise up and suddenly
he's being drafted as like a you, know high end
wide receiver, three something like wide receiver twenty, six and
there's just like you're kind of ringing the value out

(56:01):
of him at that, Point like you need a lot
of improvements in his numbers for him to return a
profit on that kind of. Cost so, YEAH i, mean
like that's that's the worry, here that he does get
too much helium and that sort.

Speaker 4 (56:15):
Of bakes out the fantasy.

Speaker 1 (56:16):
Value, jake before we get out of, HERE i just
wanted to, ask like kind of a macro level view
of this. List obviously there's no rookies on here five
of the ten, names so half of the list are
second year. Guys does that feel like the right percentage
to you if you were putting together a breakout players?

Speaker 3 (56:31):
List, YEAH i think that that's kind of the world we're,
in especially with wide receivers now is a lot of
times we're seeing them drafted To Jackson smith And jay
But Roman dunze now this, year like we're seeing them
fall into situations where it's, like, hey it's not the
perfect spot year. One some of the players that ended
up on teams where it's a new system takes a
year usually for the quarterback to develop as. Well so

(56:53):
year two seems to be more of the breakout than
year three like it used to. Be year. Three still
we talked about when we talked about the tight end
situation is more than, anything but year two is similarly
like these players are coming out of college producing a
lot quicker and given the, opportunity which is the big
thing to produce a lot quicker a. Lot so we
used to have that old regime of head coaches like
you have to prove yourself in THE nfl before we

(57:13):
give you, opportunities and we're kind of seeing that they're
getting the opportunities. Now so all that being, said there
was a piece and now the name just escaped me
is of COURSE i was about to say it THAT
i just saw On twitter where he's, like you, KNOW
i used to. Can't, Oh Ryan heath that actually wrote
an article about year two wide receiver breakouts and how
that used to be a gold, mine but we might
be swinging too. Far so just to be a cautionary,

(57:34):
again but, yeah year TWO i would say fifty percent
hit rate of calling for, breakouts so probably similar ONCE
i start writing all my articles as.

Speaker 1 (57:41):
Well if it's any final thoughts wrapping up putting together this, List.

Speaker 4 (57:46):
No that's.

Speaker 5 (57:46):
IT i mean year two is a golden spot for,
breakouts but who, knows you can always get.

Speaker 4 (57:51):
Them a little.

Speaker 5 (57:51):
LATER i mean we got a what year seven breakout
From john New smith last.

Speaker 4 (57:56):
Year sometimes it can sometimes it just takes a. While
that'll be.

Speaker 2 (58:00):
Next we'll take us.

Speaker 3 (58:00):
Three teams and injuries you can't get.

Speaker 1 (58:02):
There our next episode will be our Our Johnny Smith
All star.

Speaker 2 (58:05):
Team so we'll. See we'll see what list fits puts
together for. That, No i'm just, kidding all.

Speaker 1 (58:08):
Right thanks everybody for tuning. In thank you To jake
And fitz for. Joining as, always we appreciate. Everybody we'll
see again next. Time For jake And, Fitz I'm. Ryan
thanks for tuning.

Speaker 2 (58:17):
In we'll see.

Speaker 1 (58:17):
You thanks for listening to The Fantasy Pros Fantasy football.
Podcast if you love the, show the best free way
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apple podcasts At fantasypros dot, com slash review or On,
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Hosts And Creators

Andrew Erickson

Joe Pisapia

Derek Brown

Thor Nystrom

Ryan Wormeli

Pat Fitzmaurice

Matthew Freedman

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