Running Backs You Need to RUN FROM in 2025 (Ep. 1605)

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Hello, everybody. Welcome into the Fantasy Pros Football Podcast. I'm
Ryan Warmley, joined today by Jake Seey from The Athletic
and by Ryan Heath from Fantasy Points Fellas. We are
into July. It is July second as of the day
we are recording this, so we are just a month
away from the height of draft season. But really it
does feel like it ramps up right about now that
July fourth is kind of the milestone for where things

(00:22):
really kick into high gear. So it's a very exciting
time of year. I'm really excited to be talking some
running backs to run from on today's show with the
two of you. These are running backs that we will
be avoiding, and we're gonna throw in some at the
end that maybe, even though they're risky, have some red
flags that we are still considering drafting as well. Jake,
like I said, into July, now, how are you doing, man.

Speaker 2 (00:41):
I'm doing good, and I'm doing really good. It's July.
I have what two or three more weeks before the
real hell storm starts for all of us, but at
least it's creeping in. We know that the people want it.

Speaker 1 (00:52):
I feel like every year gets a little bit earlier
and earlier in the off season that you see the
swarm start covering.

Speaker 2 (00:57):
All the sites. We're all doing the same thing as like, well,
they're already out of so now we need to jump
in front of them, and we need to jump in
front by the time we turn around in two years,
we're gonna be releasing this kit on like maybe.

Speaker 1 (01:06):
Yeah, it's earlier at earlier year. Ryan, this is the
first time we're doing a show together. Man, thanks for
coming on.

Speaker 3 (01:12):
Yeah, yeah, thanks for having me so much. Very excited. Yeah,
awesome to meet and work with both of you. This
should be a really fun show.

Speaker 1 (01:20):
What do you have going on at Fantasy Points right now?

Speaker 3 (01:22):
Yeah, right now, kind of just grinding through a bunch
of off season articles. I am writing about a bunch
of different metrics that we have in the Fantasy Points
data suite and like some different ways that those can
get you an edge in your fantasy league. So talking
about like design, targets, expected Fantasy Points, all sorts of
good stuff. So yeah, you can check all that out

(01:44):
all my writing on fantasy points dot com.

Speaker 1 (01:47):
Jake, any projects you're working on at the Athletic.

Speaker 2 (01:49):
Actually my breakout top seven wide receivers just came out
today and I actually use Fantasy points to back up
my opinion of Josh Downs and using his separation score
and win rate percentage. I like to do the mix
of both. And so yeah, I was on the site yesterday.
Thank you Scott Barrett for that.

Speaker 1 (02:06):
Nice We love the synergy going on here already. Quick
reminder for everybody that all of our twenty twenty five
consensus rankings and tiers can be found at fantasypros dot
com slash rankings. You can go to all your different
scoring formats. From there, We're gonna got to go through
some early round running backs first that we think are
a little overvalued, then some mid round guys. Then we'll
wrap with the players that we are considering still drafting

(02:27):
even with some of these red flags. Jake, let's start
with you, your first overvalue running back that's going early.

Speaker 2 (02:33):
I figure, why not coming out of the gate strong right,
Just everybody to turn the show off, like screw it,
not listening to the rest of it. But it'ch Ashton
Genty and that's look. I couldn't have lauded Ashton Genty
more than most everybody did coming to this draft. We
know how good he is. But then I look at
it and it really comes to I'm avoiding him where
he's going because if we're going by consensus, he's RB

(02:53):
four and I'm just not gonna take him as RB four,
not because I don't believe in Genty, not though I
don't believe that the Raiders offense can be better than
it has been, especially with Gino Smith and everything they've done.
I just don't believe in taking Genty in front of
Derrick Henry and Josh Jacobs. And I know there's a
Christian McCaffrey argument out there, but I'll still take him,
mostly because I know this team still has to face

(03:14):
some of the toughest run defenses in the league. Twice
they face the Chiefs, and I know this is all
on paper. Things can change by the time that they
face each other, and that happens every single year. But
I just look at Genty and I go back to
Bjon Robinson, who we were all excited about. Bijon was
going second, third, fourth, running back off the board because
he's Bjon Robinson just like Genty is right now. And

(03:34):
as a disappointment, Bjon Robinson was RB eight or nine
and That's where I have gent to have him at eight,
because I think we have to bake in the risk
that the Raiders offense is going to limit hit him
a little bit, and if nothing more that it might
not be the touches. He'll get three hundred touches, but
they might limit him on the touchdown upside. I just
think he's a fine pick early in the second round.
I'm just not taking him mid early first and then

(03:56):
has the fourth running back off the board.

Speaker 1 (03:58):
That's all it is.

Speaker 2 (03:58):
It's not that I hate him, I just hate where
he's going.

Speaker 1 (04:01):
Ryan, what do you think about gend He's RB four,
right at the top of tier two in our expert
consensus rankings. Obviously as a rookie, you know everybody's super excited,
but we haven't actually seen yet. Do you agree with
Jake that early second round is more where you're comfortable
or do you see him as a first round player.

Speaker 3 (04:16):
I am kind of with Jake here. I'm glad that
Jake picked him because genty was who I wanted to
pick kind of, but then I was too scared to
write down his name essentially, But yeah, I mean of
the running backs going in the first round, Genty is
the one I'm the least excited about. I would rather
draft Christian McCaffrey. I would rather draft Devon ah Chan.
And yeah, it really is just because of the offense.

(04:39):
I just don't see the touchdown upside. I am a
Gino Smith believer, but it would really have to be
a much better offense than Vegas or anyone in the
industry expects for Genty to really post a truly league
winning RB one season.

Speaker 1 (04:55):
Ran, would you rather Genty or Derek Henry? Because you
mentioned a Chan and McCaffrey. Those guys are RB six
in our in our expert consensus rankings. Henry's RB five,
so he's ahead of both those guys as well. Between
jen and Henry, who would you prefer?

Speaker 3 (05:06):
Yeah, I would take Henry as well.

Speaker 1 (05:09):
Okay, that is one that I hope people don't turn
off because if but you know, there are at least
some people who disagree with you. There, Jake Ryan, let's
go to your first early overvalued running back.

Speaker 3 (05:18):
So my overvalued guy is someone that Jake actually just mentioned.
It's Josh Jacobs. For me, I can't get on board
with a top two or top three round ADP for Jacobs,
and it's because I expect the Packers offense to just
look very different. So last year they average a negative
four and a half percent pass rate over expectation. That

(05:40):
just means that they were the third most run heavy
team in the league, controlling for down and distance, in
game situation and game script and all of that, right,
But that's not what we've seen out of Matt Lafleur's
offenses historically. Over the past three seasons. They ranked fourteenth,
twentieth and fifth most pass heavy by that same metric.
They just added Matthew Golden in Round one. There's likely

(06:04):
an intention here to get back at least to a
more balanced attack. And even before Jordan Love's mid season
groin injury, he was averaging thirty five point eight pass
attempts per game that was fourth most among quarterbacks. So
just kind of this confluence of factors that happened last year,
with Love getting banged up and with the Packers kind

(06:25):
of beating up on a lot of really bad teams
in the second half of the year, it led to
all of this awesome production for Jacobs. But I just
don't expect the environment to be the same this year.
The Packers have a bottom ten schedule by opponent Vegas
win total, so again, they're probably not going to be
coasting to wins like they were last year. And Jacobs

(06:46):
has been very game script sensitive over his career. He
averages seven fewer points per game and half PPR formats
in losses than he doesn't win since twenty twenty two.
So I would just much rather have kind of any
other second or third round running back than Jacob's at
this point.

Speaker 1 (07:04):
I really agree with you on this one, Ryan. I
think the point about Love's injury is just like very
central to this argument, and I would be very surprised
if they are as run heavy this year as they
were last year, assuming Love is healthy. I want to
quickly ask you before I throw to Jake on Jacobs,
do you think Jordan Love is then undervalued if you're
expecting more passing? He's currently QB seventeen. I know this

(07:26):
is a running backs episode, but I'm curious, like, if
you are lower on Jacobs, does that mean that you
are higher on Love.

Speaker 3 (07:31):
Yeah, I'm a bit higher on Love than that. It's
hard for single quarterback leagues just because like the big
upside qbs are really all that matter, but yeah, certainly
in super flex, I think Love is a great pick,
and I think maybe the most actionable way to do
this is Matthew Golden and Jayden Reid. If I'm correct
and the Packers are throwing more, both of those guys

(07:52):
are really interesting values.

Speaker 1 (07:54):
Jake, how do you see this offense plan out as
Josh Jacobs overvalued at RB nine.

Speaker 2 (07:58):
I actually think he's probably pretty much right in value.
I'm obviously on the slim side of this one because
you guys are in agreement, but I would take him
in the second round, mostly because I actually don't disagree
a lot with what Ryan said. It mostly comes down
to it. Even if you go back to two years ago,
we're still talking about over three hundred and thirty carries
between Jones and Dylan in that backfield, and if you

(08:20):
just take Jones in the passing game that year, about
forty targets, which that's all. I don't expect Josh Jacobs
to all of a sudden off set the rushing concerns
with seventy targets. That's not going to happen. But I
think the touchdown equity is still going to be valuable.
I do think that I actually have him for less
touches or fewer touches to do it correctly according to
Game of Thrones, fewer touches in the run game. But

(08:42):
I still think hovering around three ten to three twenty
receptions included is why I'm okay with Jacobs. I would
agree if he was first round, early second but I
would take him neck and neck, like I said right
with Genti, because I believe in the touchdown. I think
their touches could be similar. I think the touchdowns will
be better for Jacobs, and maybe that's where it's a
little bit different. So I am willing to take him

(09:02):
in the second round.

Speaker 1 (09:04):
My dad is an English teacher, so that line of
Game of Thrones of fewer is his favorite line in
the show. I would have to imagine, by the way,
I love Jake when you say I agree with what
Ryan said, because I can pretend you're talking about me,
and that actually works because I could agree with the
Ryans exactly. I do want to revide everybody about our
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or on the Fantasy Football Draft Wizard app. All right, Jake,

(09:46):
let's go to your next early overvalued running back.

Speaker 2 (09:49):
Way overvalue in my opinion, and this was before the signing.
To add even more concern in this backfield Chubb. But
we always say like we never own a player, and like, well,
as some point there's always gonna be a breaking point
where if he falls far enough that you will draft
said player. I have a feeling this is one that
I actually will never own because I have Joe Mixon
in the mid twenties. I cannot ignore the injury concern

(10:12):
the signing, and honestly, even if you look at the
drafting situation of Woody Marx, I actually thought Woody Marx
was a very nice handcuff initially before the signing to
say that, hey, if Joe Mixon isn't one hundred percent
similar skill set in some ways to Joe mix in
some ways not all, But look at this badfield. I'm
just like, man, this is this is about to be gross.
And I think that you see that the Texans were

(10:33):
not confident in what they had. They added Marx. They
know that Damian Pierce hasn't been the answer since his
rookie season, but they went out and made the signing
Nick Chubb and said, like, hey, maybe Joe Mixon, we
should be more concerned than we already were. I already
had Joe Mixon outside the top fifteen before the signing,
and like I said, now I have him down in
the range of like a Pachecko. Like I'd rather just

(10:53):
take Pachecko and hope he rebounds to his pre injury
performance than to gamble that mixing is anything what he's been.
And as much as we've enjoyed mixing in fantasy, I
don't think you'll find a single person that would argue
against saying he's been volume reliant. And so if the
volume's not there and it's not you know, the worst
case in the world to say, hey, he is volume reliant.

(11:14):
But if he's not getting three hundred touches and he's
only getting two hundred, I mean, honestly, a mid RB
two might be the best case scenario.

Speaker 1 (11:22):
Yeah, Jake, even aside from the more crowded backfield, Like
I think we're hoping that the Texans throw more too.
I mean, it was it became like a running gag
last year that they started every drive on second and
nine because they were just running for sometimes a loss,
but usually like a yard or two at most to
start every series.

Speaker 2 (11:40):
As that there's the Giants offense. They stole their playbook.

Speaker 1 (11:44):
Yeah, so I'm with you on this, Like, I could
see myself having Joe mixing in some leagues, but I'm
gonna feel terrible about it if I do, and I
will not be aggressively going after that. So far far
from it. Ryan, what do you think about mixing this year?

Speaker 3 (12:00):
Yeah, I agree with pretty much everything that Jake said.
Another thing I would add is that this Texans offensive
line could once again be easily the worst in the league.
The reports right now out of camp are that they're
just rotating starters at all the positions. They don't know
where anybody's actually playing like that. That's just very very
bad vibes to me. So yeah, fully with Jake here,

(12:21):
I also do not want mixing on any of my teams.

Speaker 1 (12:25):
Do you guys think that there will be more scoring opportunities,
Like you're expecting a bounce back from the offense in general,
and we're just not certain that those scoring opputems are
going to go to mix in Ryan, or are you
hesitant about actually seeing kind of a bounce back with
a revamped offensive line and everything in Houston?

Speaker 3 (12:42):
Yeah, I'm just hesitant kind of about everything in Houston.
We have seen CJ. Stroud just take awful, awful sacks
for his and really a little bit in his rookie year,
but also especially in a sophomore season, every time that
the defense runs a stunt, he just immediately gets. The
Texans line was the worse against stunts of any team

(13:04):
last year. So yeah, I just think that it, at
least in that respect, teams have kind of figured out
the Texans a little bit. So yeah, I'm pretty worried
about the entire offense.

Speaker 1 (13:16):
Jake, where do you think this offense finishes the season scoring?

Speaker 2 (13:20):
I would love to say middle of the pack, But
I think another part of it is even if it
gets to the middle of the pack. Something that the other
Ryan Ryan Heath was saying about the Packers is I
think you could see them passing more. To your point
is that I think they get back to a little
bit more from two years ago, which of course would
affect Joe Mixon even if we didn't have the job
in Marx and health concerns.

Speaker 1 (13:42):
Ryan, who's your next early overvalued running back?

Speaker 3 (13:44):
Yeah, my next guy's a little bit boring because it's
a very like one dimensional argument and reason. But it's
James Cook for me. I think he's overvalued still, and
the reason for that is really just touchdown regression. So
Cook converted twenty five percent of his red zone carries
into touchdowns last year. That was easily the most in

(14:07):
the NFL. It was more than all of the league's
like best and most efficient goal line backs, better than
Derrick Henry, better than David Montgomery, like just all insane
touchdown efficiency that we saw from him on the ground.
On top of that, Josh Allen is always going to
take around thirty percent of the red zone carries right

(14:27):
off the top, at the very least at fantasy points.
We have a metric called expected Fantasy points per game,
which will just kind of show you how valuable each
touch is because it's different in the red zone near
the goal line or what have you. But by that metric,
Cook ranked as just the RB twenty five last year
with only twelve point six expected Fantasy points per game.

(14:50):
Right now, he's going as around the RB twelve, kind
of as a fringe RB one. That's how he scored
last year. But I just don't think it's likely he
does it again. And even worse, he kind of took
a step back as a receiver, averaging just two point
four targets per game, and that was because of Ty Johnson,
of all players, who's taking you off the field on
third downs. So I just it gives me really bad vibes.

(15:14):
I don't like it at all. Generally, to be like
a truly league winning running back, you need to average
at least three and a half targets per game. It
seems unlikely for Cook at least if they continue to
run their offense in their backfield the way they have.
So yeah, Cook is a fade for me right now.

Speaker 1 (15:31):
What do you think about this one, Jake? I know,
in addition to everything that Ryan has said, you know,
Pat Fitzmorris here at Fantasy Rose is also really high
in Ray Davis just says, like another person in this backfield.
Do you think Cook is overvalued, Jake, I.

Speaker 2 (15:43):
Mean, he's slightly overvalued. It seems that at least somewhat
of the community, the fantasy community, it realizes what Ryan says,
and he's a spot on with this. I mean, if
you go to David Montgomery, who had if you just
talk about pure rush is to touchdown as a six
point five percent mark, which is extremely high. Seven point
seven of his rushes went for a touchdown, and then

(16:03):
he gave you that conversion rate on top of it.
I mean, these are numbers that we haven't seen since
Legarrett Blunt's year, Like this is just it's not normal.
This doesn't happen. And if you look at Lagarrett Blunt
completely different team also, but also completely different running back.
I just don't think this is going to continue. And
I think that's what you see is a lot of
people don't expect this to continue. And if you take

(16:23):
even six touchdowns, which is even a cutting in half,
but if he takes six away, we're talking about an
RB two just because he only still ran the ball
two hundred and seven times. So I'm with Ryan on
this one. Discreat on the first one, but completely on
board within this one is I'd rather have James Cook
further down the draft of that Ken. The good news
is is because of where he's going, I'm usually taking
a wide receiver here. Anyway.

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Speaker 1 (17:58):
All right, guys, let's move to sort of the middle
round running backs now, Jake starting with.

Speaker 2 (18:02):
You, Yeah, and I already got a couple questions so
far this preseason, and like, why do you hate Tony Pollard?
And I'll give you the easy answer of why I
hate Tony Pollard's just because I hate where's the ceiling?
Like we've just seen the best and actually the best
of Tony Poller. To talk about the touchdown regression we
were just talking about with James Cook, the best year
is when he ran for nine with the Cowboys, and

(18:22):
he's had six and six hovering in that eleven points
per game range. And it's even with the questions of okay,
if Spear's gonna finally do something, and it's mostly still
been Tony Pollard as the clear lead, and we still
get best case scenario as a back end RB two,
like where's the ceiling? Like even if there was nobody
else in this bathfield, the ceiling is still like, Okay, cool,

(18:44):
he's a mid RB two, And that's my issue with it,
is that he's going as a back end RB two
and I'd rather have him as an RB three or
the first running back off my bench. Maybe if you know,
if I had four wide receivers and a running back
and he's my second RB cool, I can get with.
But that's why I have him thirty three is because
that's where i'd want him. I would rather have Cam

(19:05):
Skataboo and Judkins's rookies. I'd rather have Brian Robinson as
his situation with the Commanders. There's just other running backs
I would take because their similar value as they stand,
and they have higher ceilings. I think there's just no
ceiling with Tony Pollard.

Speaker 1 (19:21):
Tony Pollard is RB twenty six in our half star rankings,
So yeah, just a very high end RB three currently
in the rankings. Ryan, does that sound too high, too low,
or just right to you?

Speaker 3 (19:34):
I think it sounds about right. Honestly. I am fine
with Pollard this season, and just directly answered Jake's question.
I think the ceiling comes from just if cam Ward
is better than anybody thinks, would that be such a
surprise that a first overall drafted quarterback is immediately way
better than kind of the scouting industrial complex. I thought

(19:55):
that we've seen that happen plenty of times, and if
that's the case, then this is suddenly a good offense
that I think the Titans are. It's a much more
like volatile projection in terms of what their points per
game output is going to be, just because of the
cam Ward factor. And yeah, with Pollard, we saw him
be a bellcow for pretty much the entirety of last year.

(20:19):
He did put up big fantasy weeks in a handful
of games that the Titans were not totally out of.
So yeah, I kind of like Pollard probably a little
bit more of like a best Ball style pick, because yes,
I don't see like the massive League winning season out
of him, like you might from a rookie like an RJ. Harvey,
for example. But yeah, I think Pollard's totally fin where

(20:41):
he's going. It's not that offensive to me.

Speaker 1 (20:44):
The interesting thing with Pollard is like I feel like,
when I say RB twenty six, that doesn't sound crazy
in a vacuum. But then I look at the few
names going after him, at least in terms of ECR,
and like, RB twenty seven is Judkins, RB twenty eight
is Pachecko, RB twenty nine is Caleb Johnson, RB thirty
Bryan Robinson Junior. And I'm like, I kind of could
see the case for all those guys ahead of him,
So it's like, I don't like twenty six, does it

(21:04):
sound terrible? But then I look at the names after him,
and I just feel like maybe he should move down
a bit, Not that I think you should be like
in the mid to late thirties or anything of drastic,
but I do like a lot of those names that
are going directly after him just a little bit better.
So I can kind of see both sides of this case. Ryan,
Let's go to your next running back.

Speaker 3 (21:21):
Yeah, so my next guy is someone we've mentioned it's
David Montgomery. And even aside from all the touchdown efficiency
stuff that Jake brought up earlier, my kind of bigger
concern is just can the Lions maintain as valuable of
a backfield and as valuable of a rushing attack as
they have had over the last two seasons. Last year,

(21:42):
their entire backfield was worth about thirty expected Fantasy points
per game, which is insane. That was by far the
most The Bucks were second, I think, and they were
down at like twenty five or somewhere around there. But
that giant backfield pie was actually split pretty much perfectly
fifty to fifty in games that both Montgomery and Jamier

(22:03):
Gibbs were healthy. So that kind of leaves us with
two ways for Montgomery to just fall out of, like
the RB two and flex tire. Either the Lions can't
maintain that valuable of a backfield with fewer tds. Maybe
they have to pass more lots of different ways that
you can just imagine the offense regressing without Ben Johnson,

(22:25):
or alternatively, their new OC couldn't come in and just decide, hey,
I'm going to give a slightly larger snapshare to Jamiir Gibbs,
who we saw average over one hundred and sixty five
yards from scrimmage per game in the four games they
gave him like a sixty six percent snapshare without with
Montgomery out. So either of those things happen and all

(22:47):
of a sudden, Montgomery is not a handcuff that you
can play in your flex now. He's just an extremely
expensive handcuff that is not really providing much value week
to week without a Jamier Gibbs injury. And that's true
of basically every other much cheaper, true handcuff running back,
like your Zach Charmonat's, your Isaac Rundo's or whatever your

(23:08):
preferred flavor is there. So yeah, with the upside case
for Montgomery just being the GIDS injury, I just can't
justify drafting him as anything close to an RB two.

Speaker 1 (23:21):
Jake, where do you have Montgomery rank? He's RB twenty
one in ECR and HALFVPR I.

Speaker 2 (23:26):
Have but twenty six. I'm with Ryan on this one.
A lot of things he said, as I've echoed on
these shows past couple of weeks, is that we're just
assuming everything's gonna be fine, as in the ranks are
showing that we're assuming everything's going to be fine and
it's just gonna be copy paste for the Lions. And
I haven't mentioned in my breakout calumn, I brought up
Jameson Williams and was like, part of the case against
him would be that John Morton comes in and does

(23:48):
go that route or does change the offense just a
little bit. They even said early on Golf has been
mentioned as saying is like there's gonna be slight differences
that you'll see. Well, if we're seeing it, it might
be bigger than he's letting on in the fact of
like it's slight to him, but it's bigger in the
overall scheme of things. And just you know, the rag
Now thing is impressive because it's still as good as
he was as a blocker, playing through the injury led

(24:10):
torn pack playing through that last year. Like that's a
loss that we have to factor in. There's just a
lot of issues where it's just it's risky to say
everything's just going to be the same that we've seen
for the past three years. And if you go back
to Morton, like you know, coming from a system that
in the last two years at least has been the
Sean Payton. But if you go to the last time
he was the offensive corneator, way way way back with

(24:31):
the Jets, here's a name to throw out for everybody.
He leaned on Ballall Powell a lot, and that was
with Matt Forte's corpse in that backfield. But I say
that to say, this is why I echo Ryan is
because even Balal Powell he like kind of lean on.
He wasn't a true bell cow. But to Ryan's point,
what if Morton's style is to say, I had this
amazing running back in Gibbs, I'm going to give him

(24:53):
ten percent more, which isn't a lot, but it's enough
to say, oh my gosh, David mcgarmy's going from scoring
twelve thirteen on the ground to nine and only one
hundred and fifty touches, and that's just that's gonna make
them an RB three.

Speaker 1 (25:06):
Similar question, Jake to what we talked about with Houston,
the offense environment overall, If you had to put a
number to it, with the offensive coordinator change, where do
think the Lions end up this year in scoring?

Speaker 2 (25:16):
If I would almost guarantee money still top ten's, the
question is whether or not it's top five and that,
but that top five top ten is the difference of
whether or not we care about Dave Montgomery's in RB two.

Speaker 1 (25:27):
Ryan, Do you see them as more top five or
top ten?

Speaker 3 (25:30):
Oh yeah, I got a pick. Now, Yeah I'm going
to I'm going to go outside the top five will
be my prediction.

Speaker 1 (25:35):
Yeah, okay, winner. Remind everybody about one last tool today.
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(25:57):
smarter than ever. J can give me another mid round
running back you are avoiding.

Speaker 2 (26:03):
So this is a lot of kind of opinion on
this one. It's tyrone, tracy and the fact that I
do believe that Skataboo can come in and be and
likely be the lead, mostly because and I just did
a show recently with Joe on Fantasy Pros on here,
and I said, I think some of us in Fantasy
like the world I'm talking to everybody, analyst and players.

(26:24):
It's just like we get enamored with, oh my gosh,
he came from nowhere. I put that on quotes like
he came unexpected. I found this guy and liked all
the talent. He even surprised the NFL. And then it's
like you don't want to let go and like sometimes,
in my opinion, Tyrone Tracy is a great complimentary running back.
I was somebody who was on Tracy last year, mostly

(26:45):
because I wasn't a big ve Devin Singletary and the
rest and Gray and all the other running backs. But
I think that while he took everybody by well not everybody,
but took a lot of people by surprise, he's still
a limited running back. And one of the limits that
the concern is even part of his game is Brian
Dable benched him to go back to Singletary because he
was fumbling the ball. And I'm not saying that's something

(27:06):
that can't be corrected and you just keep a guy
off the field because he fumbles. We yelled at years
of Belichick doing that, like, just give the best guy
the ball. Adrian Peterson fumbled. We know that, but I'm
saying all is to present is that I think Scataboo
versus Tracy. If I'm taking talent versus talent, I would
take Scataboo over Tracy. And I think part of Scataboo's
game that gets underrated is his pass catching ability, which

(27:27):
is really where the game of Tracy comes from because
of his explosiveness. So I see this as more of
like a sixty forty split, which means where Tracy is
going and drafts is overdrafted, I would happily still take
Tracy further down. Just where he's going. I think he's
still being treated as the fifty five to forty five
leads split of that backfield, and I think it's actually

(27:47):
going to be he's going to be on the back
half of it.

Speaker 1 (27:50):
Ryan, what do you think this backfield looks like?

Speaker 3 (27:52):
So I'm like, fairly I would say I don't have
an opinion super locked in on how this backfield looks like.
But I do have like a way I like to
approach these ambiguous backfields, and that's that I don't really
care which running back ends up on which side of
the fifty five forty five split. I only care about
can this running back make it a seventy percent opportunity share, right,

(28:15):
especially on a team like the Giants, where that that
has to be the case. Further, to really be any
fantasy value, there has to be a bell cow it.

Speaker 2 (28:25):
Yeah.

Speaker 3 (28:25):
I try not to get caught up so much in
what's the likelihood of being at a fifty five percent
versus a forty five percent. In this particular case, I
will slightly prefer Scataboo because for the reason that Jake said,
because I feel more confident in his pass catching abilities.
But honestly, this backfield is just not that big of

(28:47):
a target for me in general, and I don't feel
like particularly stressed part of the factor.

Speaker 2 (28:51):
Too, honestly.

Speaker 1 (28:54):
Yeah, But just to let everybody know the rankings, Tyron
Tracy Junior is thirty first amongst our running backs in ECR,
and it's got who's fortieth amongst running backs and ECR.
So you know, a nine back gap there between the two. Ryan,
let's go to the last mid round running back.

Speaker 3 (29:11):
Yeah, So my last mid round guy is DeAndre Swift,
and it's for several reasons, but kind of going through
some of them. Over his career, Swift has primarily been
a man gap rusher, right, in his last season under
Ben Johnson, he mostly ran a very man gap heavy scheme,

(29:32):
but very notably in that year, Swift averaged a career
low seven point one rush attempts per game. And then,
I think, very revealingly, as soon as the Lions ship
Swift off, Johnson moved to a lot more outside zone
and obviously had a lot of success over the last
two years doing that with Jamir Gibbs and David Montgomery.

(29:52):
So if that is Johnson's kind of preferred scheme that
he wants to run, Swift doesn't fit it at all.
He averages three point two career yards per carry on
outside zone and kind of similarly to a lot of
the running backs we've talked about. I just don't really
see the upside with Swift, even if you think, wow,

(30:14):
the Bears are going to be a much better offense
this year. We just saw DeAndre Swift in a lead
back role on a better offense. It was with the
Eagles in twenty twenty three. He finished with just twelve
and a half fantasy points per game. I don't see
the league winning upside out of DeAndre Swift at all.
I would much rather be taking shots on guys like

(30:34):
Isaiah Paiceco, who we have seen at least for some
games be a belcow on a confirmed good offense, even
Tony Pollard, just because I can also see a path
to that offense being good Steelers running backs taking shots
on that ambiguous situation. There are just other places I
would rather be sending my bullets than DeAndre Swift.

Speaker 1 (30:56):
This year AREB twenty two. Jake, Is that too high?
Too low? Or just right?

Speaker 2 (31:03):
Yeah? I'm not crazy off from what Ryan said. I'm
just I'm okay. This is similar to what he was
saying about my guy earlier. I'm actually okay with Swift,
but I'm okay with Swift and knowing what you're getting,
like I think, honestly, you could be like, hey, Jake,
you're playing both sides of the fence here, because similar
to Pollard before, I do think he has a limited
ceiling like that I could give you like the why
would you take Swift? It's mostly moral. So I'm not

(31:26):
a big Roshawn Johnson fan. And maybe I'm wrong in this,
or maybe I'm ignoring the connection that Andrew Rickson keeps
bringing up on this shows and saying the enemy draft
a Pacheco out of Rutgers and he's with the Bears now,
and Manang Guy is from Rutgers, and that we're down
this rabbit hole of like connecting all the dots. But
all that being said, well, I think Manang guy's a

(31:46):
find late round flyer and this could be a full
blown committee, or Ben Johnson could just say like, hey,
you're done the Swift and I am going to turn
to Johnson or Manang Guy and now you're this. Now
you are the Tyrone Tracy that I just brought up.
I just feel like he's a decent two hundred and
thirty touch guy. Like I don't think he's going to
be a bel guy. Don't think he's going to be
a league winner. As Ryan said, completely agree with all

(32:07):
those I's just I'm kind of okay where he is
because where he is, I feel like he's a cool
RB two, and in this range, usually that's an RB
two with three or four wide receivers already on my team.
So it kind of, like I said, it kind of
almost sounds like I'm playing both sides with the Pollard
Swift thing. But I'm just a little bit more okay
with Swift.

Speaker 1 (32:25):
I think For me, it's the difference between ranking and
and drafting. Like, I think this is the right ranking
for him, but I don't think I'm going to be
targeting him at this ranking because I mean, if you
just like looking at last five years has finished amongst
running backs eighteen, nineteen twenty two, twenty three, nineteen twenty two,
you can you know, easily paint that picture that that's

(32:46):
the right, you know, number for him to be near.
But I don't want him at this range. There are
gonna be other players that I'd rather have or I'd
rather wait, and a lot of those names that you
mentioned Ryan, that you know you'd have, you know, Steelers backfield,
you know some of the upside plays elsewhere that are
going later than him. I would just rather wait and
target a guy there. So I think it's worth mentioning
that there is a difference between how you rank a
guy sometimes and how you kind of philosophically approach your

(33:09):
your draft day strategy. And that's good to keep in mind.
Let's go to one risky running back from each of
you that you are still at tempted to draft that
even despite the red flags, you recognize that there is
a risk here. That you are still interested in you guys,
actually both you made one pick each, but you both
mentioned second names that you were considering too, So feel
free to mention both if you'd like. But also, who

(33:30):
than one guy? Is that if you had to pick one,
you are attempted to draft Jake you can go first.

Speaker 2 (33:34):
Yeah, I think with me, I'm willing to gamble on
Javonta Williams. And that's from somebody that's like, go ahead
and get Jade on Blue, like I like Blue, and
I think a lot of people do. But the truth is,
you know they took the chance. It wasn't a big contract.
They let Rico down all walk for almost the exact
same contract and then brought in Javonte Williams, that being
the Cowboys. But you know, we all sit here in

(33:56):
the whether you're watching film or watching the games, or
looking at the analyst and looking at the metrics or
whatever it might be, we've all seen that Javonte Williams
is not the same running back since it got hurt.
But what if it's the extra year removed? He wouldn't
be the first running back that needed that extra year sometimes,
And that's oh my gosh, he's finally back. And the
thing is he's not going as an RB two. He's

(34:17):
not even going where he was last year. He's going
somewhere where he's going to be on your bench when
you're done drafting, Like you're not drafting him to start
RB mid thirties. Okay, what's the if Javonte Williams is
ninety percent of what he used to be and he
gets two hundred and fifty two hundred and forty touches
in his backfield, He's not going to be a league winner,

(34:38):
but it'll be somebody that you can slide into your
RB two spots more often than not. And Jayden Blue
wouldn't be the first ballet hed you know, rookie to
like not win the job and just never get out there.
Like I mean, what was the dude for the Raiders
guy last year that everybody wanted to draft and end
up being a non factor and trying to think of
his name right now. But there's there's situations where like

(35:00):
sometimes the veteran has a chance if he could just
show anything, So I will take a chance on Javonte
Williams in the mid thirties. The other one I did
mention and the only reason I didn't mention him is
because I think I've mentioned him on every show with you.
Worm is Alvin Kamara. Like, I know everybody wants to
fade the Saints offense because it's gonna be worse than
the league, But Alvin Kamara is still going to get
two hundred and fifty touches and almost what a third

(35:23):
of them are going to be in the passing game.
So I'm still going to take Alvin kamaras the top
fifteen running back. But I think this is the first
time I've spoken positively about Javonte Williams this entire offseason.

Speaker 1 (35:34):
I didn't want to interrupt you is a mere White
the Raiders running back? You were thinking, No, it was.

Speaker 2 (35:38):
The other one. It's the little small.

Speaker 1 (35:40):
Dude, Abdulah.

Speaker 2 (35:41):
No, I'm gonna pull it up, Raider. It was just
drafted last year, was it, Dylan lab Thank you? Yeah,
everybody wanted Lobby at the end of a round last year.
Is like he's got to take over because they have
nobody else, And like that's kind of how I like
Blue significantly more than Labba. But I'm just saying, like
these scenarios happen.

Speaker 1 (36:02):
Yeah, I'm with you on Javante. I I've been talking
about him actually for a couple episodes now. Like again,
not that I think he's some league winner wo's gonna
finish as an RB one, but if he stays healthy
this season, there is no way that he's not giving
you value compared to RB thirty six off the drive,
I mean, he's barely in RB three in the rankings
right now. There is just I don't believe in anybody

(36:23):
else in this backfield is going to get in his way.
And this is not even saying that I think he's
going to be back to his pre injury self. He
doesn't need to be in order to give you really
good value. I think on that.

Speaker 2 (36:34):
Everybody else this year down by Javante are backups needing
something to happen. Javante could legitimately doesn't need anything else
to happen, be the lead running back from day one,
and that's the one different. Like again, if he gets
up to RB twenty six, goodbye, You're never gonna touch
my team. But at thirty six, there is worth.

Speaker 1 (36:53):
The gamble, and I think it's gonna be a good
offense too. Like I think there's going there are going
to be touchdowns available to score. I think this is
the comparison that Erickson has made with Javanta this year
is like JK Dobbins last year, like a guy with
an injury history, but there's nobody else in the backfield.
If you think the offense is good enough, that he's
just going so late that you can't pass it up.
And that's really again, I'm not calling him a league winner,

(37:15):
like I'm with you, Jake. I'm not saying there's some
insane upside and if he was going higher, I wouldn't
be interested. But at this cost, like the opportunity is
what it is. Javonte Williams, Ryan, what do you think
about him?

Speaker 3 (37:25):
To me, I just don't see that big of a
difference between Javonte Williams and like Miles Sanders, which which
is kind of my whole issue with him. That with
the Cowboys backfield then, and this has been my take
on the Cowboys backfield for the last two seasons. It's
not a backfield that I believe is very likely to

(37:48):
create fantasy value to the point that you're starting anybody
in it in like a normal lineup. The only way
it happened last year was Dak getting hurt and the
team saying, Okay, we're just gonna pack it in and
run the ball a ton, even if we're way down.
And also Zeke had to skip a meeting or whatever
it was for him to get for him to get benched,

(38:08):
and for Dowbdell to really take over as a bell cow.

Speaker 4 (38:10):
So yeah, and then.

Speaker 3 (38:13):
Your reward is like a low end RB two. So yeah,
I just am not. I can't be on Davante. I
can't do it.

Speaker 1 (38:20):
Are you then drafting at RB sixty seven? Are you
taking Sanders if you don't see a big difference, but
there's a you know, thirty spot?

Speaker 3 (38:30):
Yeah? Maybe? Yeah, I'll say in Best Ball, I've been
dabbling in final round Miles Sanders. I think that that
has been like a better Best Ball pick than Javonte
Williams many rounds earlier. But yeah, I'm just mostly not
in on this backfield at all.

Speaker 1 (38:46):
What risky running back? Are you tempted to draft Ryan?

Speaker 2 (38:50):
Yeah?

Speaker 3 (38:50):
So going a little further up the board, I think
the guy that best fits this description this year is
Bryce Hall. So well. Obviously, everything that happened with Hall
last year happened massively disappointed at a top three ADP,
but zooming out a little bit. Over his first two

(39:10):
seasons in the league, Hall averaged twenty two Fantasy points
per game when he was above a fifty percent snapshare,
and that's mostly just removing injured games in some like
early in twenty twenty three, when he was playing a
part time role coming back from that ACL tear. Over
his entire career, Hall averages four point eight targets per game.

(39:31):
That is fourth best among active players over that span,
behind only Christian McCaffrey, Alvin Kamara, and Austin Eckler. Hall
ranked second in yards per out run among that same group.
And I mean you'll notice Christian McCaffrey, Kamara, Eckler, all
of these players have been perennial league winners. They have
combined for twelve league winning season since twenty seventeen. As

(39:55):
measured by ESPN playoff Rate, Hall now is going kind
of around pick forty, like late thirties, early forties in
most sites. He has smashed that exact ADP in both
twenty twenty two and twenty twenty three. As for why
it's risky and why it's very tough for me, but

(40:19):
ultimately I'm doing it. I think that Hall was playing
injured through even more of last year than we probably recognized. Right,
he had a mysterious lower half injury that was the
only descriptor we got of it at any point last
summer in late May early June. None of the details
were ever disclosed, and I think that might be why

(40:43):
all of his GPS numbers were down early in the year,
and why we saw the Jets kind of randomly from
week to week go back and forth between giving Hall
like an eighty percent workload down to like fifty five percent.
And the situation is just better this year. There's no
DeVante Adams anymore. Hall was still up at five and

(41:04):
a half targets per game last year before Adams joined
the team. The only real concern is everything Aaron Glenn
has said this entire offseason about wanting to use all
three running backs, but to me, it reads more as hyperbole.
Glenn has said stuff like there aren't three other running
backs in this league that have the potential of Brace Hall,

(41:27):
Brayln Allen, and Isaiah Davis. Like to me, this is
kind of Dan Campbell esque in that he will just
relentlessly talk up all the players on his roster. He's
not actually projecting their usage or their workloads. But when
we look at what the actual offensive coordinator, Tanner Engstrand,
has said, we know that he's told Hall that he

(41:47):
has to be ready to do everything and to play
on all three downs. So ultimately, all you need for
this pick to massively pay off and potentially become a
league winner is for Aaron Glenn to be lying and
for Hall to stay healthy. That's all it takes. Is
It sounds so easy? So yeah, that's why I'm in
on Hall. The other guy that I'm in on is

(42:11):
Ken Walker. I think he's a little risky for the
same reason, just injury history, but I care about that
a lot less than probably the average fantasy analyst. We
have just seen that the Seahawks are now committed to
using Walker as a three down weapon. Mike McDonald has
called him that at multiple points over the last two years,

(42:31):
second in total miss tackles force behind only Derrek Henry.
You get the Clint Kobak outside zone scheme. We've also
seen Kobak funnel targets to running backs in the past.
I just love Ken Walker in general as a bet.
Think he's a little less risky than.

Speaker 1 (42:46):
Hall tier three in the expert consensus rankings. Ryan Is,
Kyrien Williams, Chase Brown, Brees, Saw, James Cook, Kenneth Walker.
So we've already established that you are kind of fading
cooked there. How would you compare holl And Walker to
Kyrin and Chase Brown? Do you like them better than
those guys? Or are you comfortable with where they're ranked?
You're just also targeting them.

Speaker 3 (43:04):
I'm comfortable honestly with where all four of those guys
are ranked. If I had to rank them straight up,
it would be Chase Brown, Walker, Hall, Kyn But I'm
totally fine with where all of them are generally going.

Speaker 1 (43:17):
Jake, what do you think about both Briest Hall and
Kenneth Walker.

Speaker 2 (43:21):
Yeah, well, if people have tuned into the previous shows,
they know that I'm apparently the Kenneth Walker hater. So
just just established that that I'd be more in on Hall.
You know, everything that Ryan said, completely agree with. And
the thing is, if Hall was going earlier than he
was and actually where he was going about two or
three months ago, I was more off on Hall initially

(43:42):
than to the value where he's at now, which I
think is a fine price. Mostly the concerns and Ryan
pretty much touched on them, like I do have some
concerns if you look at the Justin Fields offense from
past years, and I know, completely different teams and completely
different schemes, but getting to that goal line, you kind
of all set Justin Fields at the goal line with
the bigger power. And it's not that Breese Hall doesn't

(44:03):
have his own power like Briesse Hall is a terrific
three down running back. It's just what if there is
some truth to this and what if Braylan Allen is
the discount David Montgomery to this team, and you know
you're looking at the situation where Breshall turns into Demer
Gibbs and it's the Jets versus the Lions that we
don't like the offense as much as the two and
that's just my concern. My concern is that the touchdown

(44:25):
equity takes a hit if they really do lean on
Braylon Allen as the power option, which is something that
he excels at and again not that Breecee Hall can't.
And then you have the chicken in the egg argument
like you have the Justin Fields doesn't throw to his
running backs a lot well, was that, you know, a
microcosm of what he was dealing with at running back
or is that just how Justin Fields plays his offense.

(44:46):
So all those concerns I'm saying is why Brice Hall's
not going as an RB one and that that mysterious injury.
I love that you bring it up to because like
late in the year we also got it might be
the need that he had the acls ery on and
like that just terrified me. But that was last year
at the end of the year. But if that somehow
carried over, all I'm saying is to say, even with

(45:08):
all those concerns, where he's going, I'm okay. If he
starts to get positive news and creeps back up and
gets close to top ten like he was two or
three months ago, I'm probably out at that point. But
where he is now as kind of like what is
your RB thirteen fourteen, I'm totally okay with that.

Speaker 1 (45:25):
We'll go ahead and wrap things up there. Those are
all of our running backs to run from, plus a
couple that we are considering drafting there at the end.
Thank you to both Ryan and Jake for joining us today,
and thanks everybody for tuning in. We'll see again next time.
Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football podcast.
If you love the show, the best free way to
support us is by leaving a positive review on Apple

(45:47):
podcasts at Fantasypros dot com slash review or on Spotify.
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Joe Pisapia

Derek Brown

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Ryan Wormeli

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