Start Jauan Jennings? | The 10 Biggest Fantasy Football Questions for Week 1 (Ep. 1690) - FantasyPros - Fantasy Football Podcast

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Hello, everybody, Welcome into the Fantasy pros Football Podcast, our
Friday show. I am Ryan Warmley, joined as I will
be every Friday and have been for the last few
years by Pat fitz Morris and Derek brown Fellas. This
is our Key Questions episode. I know from talking to
you guys that it is one of your favorite shows
to do every week. It is my favorite show to
do every week. We just basically highlight one or two

(00:22):
questions for every single matchup on the slate and have
a conversation about what we expect this game to look like,
players that we are interested in, all that good stuff.
It's a casual show. It is a fun show. It
is a question forwards show. We did sort of a
season preview version of the show earlier over the holiday weekend.
This will be what the weekly Friday show looks like
for anybody who is here with us for the first

(00:42):
time in season. Deepro, how are you feeling here?

Speaker 2 (00:46):
I feel it a lot better than it was two
days ago. Man, the primer for week one is out.
I feel like, Man, I just every single week, It's
like every single week that's like the thing on my
back that I'm caring and once I get that out
into the ether and it's it's live, and then I
move on to different types of content for the rest
of the week. It's like, I feel like I can

(01:08):
breathe a game Boys, I feel like I can breathe Fitz.

Speaker 1 (01:11):
We are taping this a day early. This has become
our annual tradition because you have a draft that takes
place after the Thursday night opener, so you'll be out
of town on Friday morning typically, Just so everybody knows,
for housekeeping, we will be recording this on Friday mornings
for this week only week one because of fits as schedule,
and again this has been the case the last couple
of years, so we're happy to do it. We are

(01:31):
taping this before Thursday, so we're not gonna touch on
the Thursday game because this isn't coming out till Friday.
But if some big piece of news happen, you have
to if we probably could frankly, just pretend we watch
the game. Eagles win by a billion, I expect that
to be, you know, the way it's gonna go. But
in case there's a huge upset by the Cowboys or
some crazy injury or any other piece of news, normally
on the Friday show, we will be able to react

(01:52):
to some of that Thursday game news and information and
twists and turns. We will not be doing that this
week because that game hasn't happened yet. So just letting
everybody know that. But fits, you're excited for this kind
of final draft.

Speaker 3 (02:02):
You always have everything, Yeah, I am, and just to
answer any questions people might have on their mind. So
we start in week two. After the first week, we
have a cooling off period. It's like buying a handgun.
You can't use it in anger right away. You draft
your team, and then you have to wait a week
before you can unleash it on other people.

Speaker 1 (02:18):
So one more thing that I want to hit on
before we dive in, you guys, song. I put on
this Georgia Tech sweatshirt before we started recording. I promised
my uncle I would wear this. He was in town
over the Labor Day weekend. He and my cousin came in.
My uncle went to Georgia Tech. They were in town
for the Colorado Georgia Tech game. Georgia Tech won. It
was actually an awesome game. We put a little money

(02:39):
down on it, so I was very happy about that
on Tech to win by exactly seven, and they won
by exactly seven, so that was pretty lucrative for us.
And I promised that I would wear this sweatch You're
on the show if that happens. So here I am
uncle Greg for you. Georgia Tech, Go Yellow Jackets. They
beat Colorado and hope they have a good rest of
the year. Yeah. I don't really have this opinion on

(03:00):
Georgia Tech, but I guess actually, now that they want
me some money, I will be rooting for there. They
will be my team of the year besides Maryland.

Speaker 2 (03:06):
Who Georgia not to jump the gun? Can we get
a bet? Like if the Bills beat the Ravens this week,
you can wear some Bills gear.

Speaker 1 (03:13):
No, no, absolutely get happen. No, no, no, do not
because I expect that to do.

Speaker 3 (03:17):
Not mess with the Yellow Jackets on Week one of
the college football season. They knocked off Florida State overseas
last year in the opener, and this year go into
Boulder and beat Colorado. Like watch out for the Yellow Blankets, man.

Speaker 1 (03:32):
That's exactly what my uncle will say. We're talking about
before the game, how like, because I was like, hey,
who do you think that will win and we should
put some money on this. We're here in Colorado, we
can bet and he was like, well, they always they
usually get a pretty big upset earlier in the season.
Their coach Key I think is his name, gets them
ready to go early. They got a good quarterback. He
rushed for three touchdowns in that one. King is his
last name, So uh yeah, it was a really fun

(03:52):
game to go. Boulder is just like a beautiful city.
It's a beautiful stadium if you ever have a chance
to go. I can't recommend it enough night games super there.
So had a great time. Go Jackets. Let's dive into
the actual show. By the way, quick reminder, all of
our twenty twenty five consensus rankings and tiers each and
every week of the season can be found at fantasypros
dot com slash rankings. We have a Friday night game, guys,

(04:14):
second year in a row that we've had this kind
of Coming right off the opener, I wasn't sure how
it was going to feel about it. I expected to
like it. And even though the game is really sloppy
last year, like the field conditions were really iffy, I'm
really excited to have this game because you get that
Thursday opener, you don't want to wait, like you know whatever,
it is sixty hours until you get more football. You
want another one right away. So I really like that

(04:36):
they have this Friday game now, and this year is
a good one. It's Chiefs Chargers. My key question for
you guys in deeper, I'll start with you in the
week one expert consensus rankings. And by the way, whenever
I reference the rankings unless I specifically say otherwise, this
is going to be half PPR that we're talking about.
But in the Week one expert consensus rankings, Omaran Hampton
is OURB eighteen. Xavier Worthy is wide receiver eighteen. So

(04:58):
if you could only start one in your X spot,
who would it be? Hampton is running back eighteen or
Worthy as receiver eighteen.

Speaker 2 (05:04):
Man, it's gonna be Hampton.

Speaker 4 (05:05):
I think this is just leaning on the volume.

Speaker 2 (05:07):
Although we did see grace the news wire that Najee
Harris is supposed to start this game. That's probably just
a veteran ceremonial start, like maybe he gets the first drive,
or maybe he gets the first few snaps and stuff
like that. But I think this is just a volume
play like, both of these guys have have pretty rough matchups.
So for me, it's gonna be Hampton just leaning on

(05:28):
the volume and the touchdown eq what he probably has
in this offense.

Speaker 1 (05:33):
What do you think fits? I find myself a little.
I've been a little worried about Hampton for most of
the summer relative to where he's been ranked, because I
am nervous that he is not going to get the
volume that we anticipate. You know, Worthy obviously has this
runway with Rice not playing, So how do you see
it Hampton verse Worthy?

Speaker 3 (05:50):
Yeah. One of the things I've really missed during the
long NFL offseason is Twitter during a standalone game. Like
we all know that even on a slow day, Twitter
like a Wild West saloon. It's loud, it's rowdy. Stick
around long enough and you'll see someone get thrown through
a plate glass window. Twitter during a standalone game is

(06:11):
like Wild West Saloon times ten. Like the hot takes
are flying. There's some really good comedic takes. There are
also a lot of really bad takes, and there's just
so much anger about everything. The vitriol levels are just
through the roof. And now just imagine the level of
anger on Twitter. If Naje Harris gets nearly as many

(06:31):
touches or as many touches as Omarion Hampton, like people
are gonna lose their freaking minds. And I could totally
see this being much more of a fifty to fifty
split in Week one than anyone in the fantasy community.

Speaker 2 (06:43):
Wants it to be.

Speaker 3 (06:45):
And I don't know about the start thing. I know
Greg Brainows of coach Speak index a really good Twitter account.
He sort of batted away that initial report and said no,
Jim Harbaugh has never said anything of the sort. So
I don't know if Harris actually starts, but I do
think Harris might play more than we expect. So the

(07:08):
other thing is if the Chiefs gave up the fewest
fantasy points and the third fewest rushing yards to running
backs last year, like Steve Spagnolo's defense has always been
murdered against the run. And as for Worthy, no Rashi
Rice for the Chiefs. He's suspended and with Rice hurt.
Last season, Worthy had fifty catches over Kansas City's final
eight games if you include the playoffs, so that's like

(07:31):
better than one hundred catch pace. When no Rice, I
think we can expect a busy night for Worthy.

Speaker 1 (07:37):
Deebro, you kind of focused your announcements on the handon side.
What do you think about Worthy in a vacuum in
this game?

Speaker 2 (07:42):
I mean, I'm more worried about I think the volume
will be there for him, but I'm worried about what
he's going to do as far as actual efficiency only
in the in that breakout, that breakout time frame that fits.
He talked abouts a week seventeen or thirteen through seventeen
when he faced too high coverage, which is he's gonna
get a ton of that this week. Like the Chargers

(08:04):
ran at the third highest rate last year, Worthy had
only in that Rashi rice role. He had only an
eighteen percent target per route run rate against too high
Henley produced one point zero yards per route run and
point zero one six first downs per route run, which
is a basement level. So I have a lot of

(08:25):
concerns about Worthy, although, like I see the volume point
that vi Zoom makes.

Speaker 1 (08:31):
That game is on Peacock, right, Am I remembering that correctly?
Friday night?

Speaker 2 (08:35):
Can't?

Speaker 1 (08:35):
I can't remember what it was. That might be a
YouTube game. Sorry, I forgot to write that down.

Speaker 2 (08:39):
I think it is I think that is our YouTuber
Netflix one of those.

Speaker 1 (08:42):
Yeah, I don't think it's Netflix, but I could be wrong.
Atity rate, that's.

Speaker 2 (08:46):
Any streaming services. I have to find it.

Speaker 1 (08:49):
So don't even talk to me about like watching games.
I mean this like commercial stuff on Red zone.

Speaker 2 (08:54):
I actually think, oh, dude, total can of worms. But
we will be here for that will consume the.

Speaker 1 (08:58):
Next hour if you get to cant what, by the way,
can of worms?

Speaker 2 (09:03):
I do.

Speaker 1 (09:04):
I do think Pat McAfee's might be the dumbest thing
he's ever said.

Speaker 2 (09:07):
That.

Speaker 1 (09:07):
Oh, people aren't gonna care about commercials. Only thing they
care about.

Speaker 2 (09:12):
That's that's toeing the company line. That's what that's called.

Speaker 1 (09:15):
Yeah, of course, but it still makes them look dumb.
Let's get into the red zones late here Sunday early
on first game that we'll talk about, Buccaneers at Falcons
uh Mecca. Egg Buka was one of the biggest draft
risers during this during August, really during draft season. Do
we expect a hot start right away right off the
bat in Week one, first career game for this rookie fits.

Speaker 3 (09:37):
I think so. Egg Buka Mike Evans should both see
a lot of targets and if eg Buka is mostly
playing from the slot, you should have a pretty favorable matchup.
It looks like the Falcon slot corner is going to
be Billy Bowman, junior fourth round rookie who played safety
at Oklahoma. Bowman's a good football player, But that is

(09:57):
a matchup I would expect Abuka to win.

Speaker 1 (10:01):
Debro. I messaged you yesterday when putting together this year,
and I was like, I was like, Hey, is this
a typo? Do you really have a Mecha buks wide
receiver sixty one in your one rankings? It turned out
I was looking at a not updated version of the rankings.
I was going to get them from like May. So
that was my bad in asking you that, because obviously
that would have been I was going to ask you
that question, like what am I missing here? Why do

(10:21):
you hate him? Instead, it's the reverse. You're actually above
consentus hunting Bukah.

Speaker 2 (10:25):
Yeah, right now, in my most recent set of rankings,
I've got Eggbuka wide receiver nineteen. I'm extremely high on him.
Chris Godwin's not going to play in this game, Mike Evans.
This is not a great coverage shell matchup for him.
Although I do think he's going to get his volume.
But Kate Otten has banged up, like Jalen McMillan is
not playing. We know Stirling Shepherd's not going to command

(10:46):
a high target share. It is going to be all
Mike Evans and Agbuka. I think Agbuka probably leads his
team in targets out the gate this week because the
matchup FITZI I mean, dude hitting all the proper points here,
Like I'm not worry about Billy Bowman Junior. About him,
Like his final collegiate season, he allowed a sixty eight
percent catch rate and a one twenty five passer rating

(11:08):
in slot coverage. Now they're expecting this dude like to
just go covering buco week one, which I mean, just
if you want to just talk about rookie corners in general.
Not a converted safety asked to play nickel, Now you
know about rookie corners in general. Rooky corners don't usually
start out with like Sauce Gardner, like Joey Porter Junior,

(11:30):
just studs out the gate. They usually struggle find their
feet and if they're good most of them, you'll see
the back half of the season that's where they really
kind of get their legs underneath them. So Buka in
week one wheels up, dude like he should be ranked
as a wide receiver. Two, I think he's gonna get
a ton of freaking targets. Atlanta's gonna run a lot
of too high coverage, probably at least like fifty one

(11:51):
to fifty five percent of their defensive snaps. All of
this leans in Eggbuka's dry Do.

Speaker 3 (11:57):
You think is this I'm sorry, I was just gonna say,
do you think egg Buka is gets more of the
slot snaps than Shepherd? Or do you think Egbuka might
spend a lot of time playing Z in this game?

Speaker 2 (12:08):
No, I think they're I think they're gonna put Shepherd
out there as like a sacrificial perimeter wide receiver. I
think a Buka is gonna spend sixty percent plus in
the slot, maybe higher, just depends, gotcha, I.

Speaker 1 (12:20):
Was gonna I was gonna ask you, deever, do you
think that Agbuka like this, is this a matchup specific
aggressive ranking or do you anticipate ranking him around that
wide receiver twenty range really like multiple weeks kind of
right off the bat here?

Speaker 2 (12:33):
I mean, what, uh where would it be? We be
ranking Chris Godwin. If he was fully healthy, we would
be ranking him in this offense. And I'm not gonna
like make the exact one to one comparison, but I
mean he's going to play a very similar role. He's
going to be the counterpoint counterpart to like Mike Evans
is going to crush single high coverage. He's good versus

(12:54):
too high, but not as good Like I think the
targets are going to go in that direction. I mean,
what's to stop him right now? From? And we saw
other stuff like a video surface yesterday of Chris Godwin
walking and stuff. He doesn't look great. I don't even
know when we see Chris Godwin this year, Like I
know he's not on the IR and stuff like that,
But that doesn't mean that we're gonna see him suit
up in week three. And if we do, at what

(13:15):
point do we see like not even a fully healthy
Chris Godwin, Like seventy five to eighty percent Chris Godwin
like Abuka should be, Like it's a narrow target, try
guys like he should probably be at wide receiver two
in weekly ranks.

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over nause on Friday night.

Speaker 2 (14:55):
And that's the way it should be, like came on.

Speaker 1 (14:58):
So, yeah, that's definitely what we all want to see,
uh for sure. All right, let's get to our next
game here, Bengals at Brown's key question here, deebro starting
with you, the Bengals always start off slow, but this
year they actually did play their starters a bit in
the preseason, which they hadn't done before. So do you
think that will be enough to help them play better
this year in Week one against a terrible Browns team.

Speaker 2 (15:20):
I think it's the same. I don't know if we're
going to see it, but I think it's the same.
I mean, you don't run Joe Burrow and company and
starters in Jamar Chase for like two to three drives
in the freaking preseason if that's not what you're trying
to accomplish. But to your point, where this is the
avenue if you want to get off to a hot start.
This is the team like you'd want to see first
under your schedule. Like the Browns are not anything that

(15:41):
I'm worried about. A lot of single high coverage, which
leads to big day for Jamar Chase. As long as
he's probably not going to see Denzel Ward a ton,
They're going to move him around the formation. They've been
doing that more and more. T Higgins is good versus
single high. You're not worried about the pass rush outside
of Myles Garrett, so as long as they can give
Joe barr of like decently clean pockets, which again you're

(16:03):
not worried about anybody outside of Garrett and outside a
Ward in the coverage structure. So yeah, I think the
Bengals get off to a really strong start. I already
bet the spread for the Bengals to cover.

Speaker 1 (16:13):
For as much as you say this is a great
matchup to go against, we said the same thing last
year about the Patriots and they lost that game. It's
what do you make of this one?

Speaker 2 (16:24):
Do you think the Bengals before we get to like,
do you think the Bengals cut? Like speaking in a
hard rock bet that line is minus four and a half.
You don't think the Bengals can cover that?

Speaker 1 (16:32):
Oh? That move? That was We tipped a show earlier
today on Thursday, and it was minus.

Speaker 2 (16:36):
A half minus four. It's four and a half minus
one ten right now? Interesting, give me, I'm actually gonna
bet it right now.

Speaker 1 (16:43):
Obviously they can. Pat I mean, Joe Flacco has a
lot of experience in this division, right, Like, he's faced
the Bengals a bunch.

Speaker 2 (16:51):
We like.

Speaker 1 (16:52):
The Bengals defense is terrible. Like, there's a lot of
things that you could if you want to build a
case for an upset and just just their history, like
I mentioned fits. How do you see this?

Speaker 3 (17:00):
Yeah, I mean that's exactly it. I do think the
point of playing the starters more was to avoid the
slow start because that sixteen to ten loss to the
Patriots in week one last season was catastrophic for the Bengals,
Like it was the beginning of a four and eight start,
and by the time they got their act together and
won five straight at the end of the season too late.
So yeah, I mean, like that's why we were subjected

(17:23):
to seeing Joe Burrow getting ragged alled by the Washington
Commander's pass rush and why we were terrified, like I
get Joe Burrow out of there. But yeah, I mean,
the question is whether the offensive line and defense for
the Bengals are going to be good enough. We'll see,
like seemingly soft matchup to start the season, but they
have to go to Cleveland and hear it from the

(17:43):
Dog Pound. Not an easy thing to do a divisional
game on the road against the hostile crowd. We'll see, Like,
I think four and a half is a pretty good line.

Speaker 2 (17:54):
The other thing I'll say too, can we honestly say,
like arguably this is the healthiest offseason Joe Burrow's had. Yes,
So you know, camp and what have you preseason all
the things, like they're kind of lining up here for.

Speaker 1 (18:07):
Me de bro obviously, like we know everybody were starting
the Bengals. It's Joe Burrow it's Jamar, Chase's t Higgins
and its Chase Brown, and you're pretty much not messing
with anybody else. So they're they're going to be really
easy on the show. Literally every week, we're gonna know
what we're doing with them. The brown side, I'm curious,
is Dylan Sampson somebody you're starting a week one?

Speaker 2 (18:24):
No, I mean you have to be like on a
fourteen teamer to consider him as a flex Like we
just it comes down to, like there's so many parts
like and if people were reading the primer, there's so
many players, like where you get deeper down the depth
charts of guys like wide receiver threes where it's like
I don't know what their snapshare or running backs we're
like I don't know what their snapshares look like this week,
like where you can't confidently plug them in any lineup.

Speaker 1 (18:48):
Game Number four Dolphins at Colts Fits, who are the
pass catchers worth starting for Indianapolis? Now that Daniel Jones
is officially the quarterback.

Speaker 3 (18:56):
Tyler Warren, that's it.

Speaker 2 (19:04):
For a second.

Speaker 1 (19:05):
Yeah, it wouldn't be unheard of for Fits His internet
to go out, So I did have the same thought,
But no, He's making a point here that it's only Tyler.
Where's Warren ranked amongst tight ends?

Speaker 2 (19:16):
For you?

Speaker 3 (19:17):
Tight end nine? Kind of waiting to see a little bit,
but you know, I'm excited about him. He played pretty
much every snap with the starters in the preseason and
all reports were great, And this was a guy who
is just I mean, he is a demon after the catch,
and I can't wait to see what it looks like.
But yeah, I think he's gonna totally gut the value

(19:40):
of Josh Downs for fantasy, like those short area targets
are like, he is a big problem for Josh Down's
target volume. I think he's gonna hurt Michael Pittman less.
But I still don't really want to play Michael Pittman
in Week one.

Speaker 1 (19:53):
Yeah, I was gonna ask if if there is a
second I was gonna assume it might have been Pittman,
d row any interesting Piman or or Downs if you disagre.

Speaker 2 (20:00):
With fil I think it's Downs and Warren for me,
I do have concerns about Pittman just being a stylistic
fit with Daniel Jones, like talking about archetype of wide
receiver and stuff like that. Daniel Jones is not throwing
into tight windows. He's not throwing back shoulder balls like
it's got to be like easy separation scheme stuff like
make it easy for him. And I think that's where

(20:20):
Downs and both Tyler Warren both make a ton of sense.
And I think both these guys I'd feel fine flex
and I mean, like, you know, starting taller Warren, I'm
with FITZI. I've got him a tight end nine. So
as a te one, Miami was horrible against tight ends
last year, twelfth most receiving yards and fantasy points per game.
You're also talking about, like to Fitzi's point, demon after
the catch, that defense allowed the tenth most mistackles last year.

(20:42):
So Warren, it's like, just give him layup targets and
let him just go bully dudes. But to the point
about Downs, a lot of too high coverage He's probably
gonna see against too high Last year, Downs had a
thirty two percent target per route run rate their nickel corner. Again,
a lot of defenses this year for various NFL teams

(21:02):
trust trusting a lot of converted safeties to play nickel
out the gate. Here in Week one, like Miami is
going to start Jason Marshall junior, which in his final
collegiate season gave him a one nineteen passer rating and coverage.
So I think Downs and Warren are both.

Speaker 3 (21:16):
Good downside of thirty two percent target perot run rate
when he was playing with Will Mallory and Moe ali Cox,
not with Tyler Warren Debro.

Speaker 2 (21:25):
I mean, yeah, well, Pittman's not getting a lot of targets.
I gotta go somewhere. Warren ain't getting fifteen a week.

Speaker 1 (21:31):
We obviously have a full slate to get through you.
So I don't want to go along in this, but
I do want to sneak in just a very quick
question on the Dolphins side that I didn't prepare you
guys for. I feel like the vibes have been really
bad in terms of just the way people have been
talking about Miami all summer. I've heard a lot of
like national like not fantasy shows, but NFL shows talking
about them as like a dark horse have the worst
record in football this year. But it feels like at

(21:51):
the beginning of the season, at least you know they're
generally healthy, at least healthier than they'll be later in
this season or maybe overrating the bad vibes in Miami,
In like, this is a team that usually does play
very well when the weather is warm, and you know,
they could take advantage of their speed, So like, is
it possible that they actually do provide a lot of
fantasy production fits early in the year and in this matchup.

Speaker 3 (22:11):
I mean fantasy production maybe, But as far as like
the bad vibes, Like I bet on football for fun
and do it with you know, pretty modest amounts of money.
And you know, I bet under eight and a half
wins for the Dolphins and minus one thirty with that

(22:32):
is one of the more uncomfortable amounts of money I've
ever bet in my life. Like that's how certain I
feel about that. So yeah, I think they're gonna be
pretty bad this year, Debra.

Speaker 2 (22:44):
Bad vibes are real, man, Like this team could be
a total dumpster fire. Like I'm worried about like just
the wheels coming off. Like if this is a team
where we're at like week seven, week eight, and Mike
Lee Daniel's been fired because the team is off to
a horrible start, Tyreek is up to his same stuff. Heck,
maybe he pulls off a jersey and go full goes

(23:05):
full ab we still feeling good about that team then
in fantasy for the rest of the season, probably not.

Speaker 1 (23:12):
If you're ready for some football, you can upgrade your
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So of course I had to get myself a Raven's shirt,
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Speaker 2 (24:55):
All right.

Speaker 1 (24:55):
Question five here Panthers at Jaguars, how many targets are
ted Roa McMillan and Travis Hunter getting in this matchup, respectively?
And I use the two of them because I think
they're very interesting on two ends possibly of the spectrum.
Tetero McMillan, very wide open path. I'm curious how high
you think that number could go. And Travis Hunter, we
just don't know yet. For sure. We have guesses, but

(25:16):
we don't know until we actually see it. So it's
I'll start with you. How many targets are McMillan and
Hunter getting respected.

Speaker 3 (25:21):
I'll go big for teed Roe, McMillan ten or more.
No Adam Thielen he was traded away, Jalen Cocher hert
Xavier Lagette objectively bad last year, one point one nine
yards per route run. I think McMillan is just going
to be a target hog early this year. Hunter tougher call.
I'll say six or seven is kind of the median guess.

Speaker 1 (25:42):
Dee bro, I'm assuming your target for Tetro McMillan is
going to be really low now that I have him
ranked higher than you in our I saw that.

Speaker 2 (25:49):
Drafting tagged in that post last night.

Speaker 1 (25:51):
Ye yes, I saw no response from you. You're scared
to compete here about.

Speaker 2 (25:56):
This, show, sir, priorities priority, But dude, tell me if
I'm wrong on this. What's to stop Tedorer McMillan from
coming out and having a pookin Nakua a week one
where he gets fifteen targets? Like no Jalen Coker exabely
get like he is who he is at this point
in his career. Maybe there's more this year, more meat
on the bone, But like JT. Sanders, he's gonna be

(26:19):
splitting routes with Tommy Tremble henter Renfro, is he really
going to draw a ton of targets like ted Er
McMillan could get twelve to fifteen targets in this game
and nobody should be surprised about it. Like the matchup
is fantastic. I'm not worried about Jerry and Jones. I'm
not worried about Tyson Campbell on the outside. I'm not
worried about a secondary that gave up the fourth highest
PBR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. So Ted

(26:39):
wheels up double digit lock it in. I think he
can get as high as fifteen in this game. And
for Travis Hunter, I'll go with FITZI here, I think
somewhere in that six to eight bucket just because of
I do think he's gonna be a full time wide receiver,
but the matchup I don't think is as great as
everybody thinks on paper. Child Smith WI is taking over

(27:01):
their slot corner this year. That dude was really good
in the limited sample that we got last year, second
lowest pass rating, fourteenth lowest yards per snap amongst forty
two qualifying slot corners. So Hunter I think will get
a decent amount of volume, but it's not like one
of those situations where he's gonna get anything close to Ted.

Speaker 4 (27:19):
Aron McMillan.

Speaker 1 (27:20):
Maybe sneaky like shootout potential in this game. Honestly, just
give me the defenses and what I expected out of
the offenses and like, so we could get a ton
of targets for both these guys. But but McMillan especially,
like that's the reason I have him as a top
twelve receiver in my season long rankings is because like
this is gonna be the case every week, right like
until somebody else steps up or Coker gets healthy and

(27:42):
take a step forward. Like he is going to get
as many targets as he can handle, and I am
a believer enough in the talent that he can handle them.
So I just don't see any reason why, Like the
defense is bad, so they're gonna have to throw a ton.
You know, we've talked before all summer how I'm a
believer that what we saw in the second half from
Bryce Young was real enough him to support a guy
like McMillan. So I'm really really bullish on him this year,

(28:06):
and I'm bullshing him right away in week one. So
where do you actually have him ranked?

Speaker 2 (28:09):
By the way, McMillan, I was going to ask you, guys,
I have a wide receiver fourteen, which might sound like crazy.
Fitsy were you at sixteen? Okay, okay, good, I'm not insane.
Then I was put up rankings and I was like,
I keep moving him up, moving him up, moving them up.
I'm like, I might be getting close to insanity territory.
But it's really nice to hear Fitzy as in top seventeen.

Speaker 3 (28:31):
We're draft rankings and Week one rankings Wide receiver sixteen.

Speaker 2 (28:36):
Love it, Love it.

Speaker 1 (28:38):
All right, let's go to game number six, Raiders at Patriots.
I want to ask you guys about kind of comparing
to you guys a different positions. Who is a higher
positional finish in Week one? Ashon Genty at running back
or Drake May at quarterback. So Genty obviously was going
higher in drafts among his position, but it's harder to
finish high at running back because there's just you know,
more options available quarterback, fewer names to be going against.

(29:01):
So I thought it was an interesting kind of had
to head. They're roughly ranked in similar ranges amongst their
positions for Week one, specifically in the expert consensus rankings, which,
by the way, if I have a references, we are
talking half PPR for those I forget if I said
that already, but bet in half VPR on the gent side.
So Drake May at quarterback, ash Gent at running back,
Deebro who finishes higher.

Speaker 2 (29:20):
I don't want to steal Fitzy's thunder, but I think
it's definitely gonna be Drake May this week. Okay, dude,
I think the Patriots are going to absolutely eviscerate the
Raiders this week. I bet the over on their total
of their points. I bet the over on Drake May
passing touchdowns at one and a half. I got plus
money on that. The only thing that could crush Drake

(29:40):
May is if the game script goes sideways, like they
get a defensive touchdown, they run two in. He's not
part of that. But I think Drake May could absolutely
crush this week. Like, dude, the Raiders have nobody on
defense outside of Max Crosby, like Eric Stokes, Sorry FITZI
formal attacker. Not worried about him, kyu Kelly, not worried
about him? The Raiders again, like outside of Max Crosby,

(30:00):
who are you worried about? Dude? Like they had the
twelfth lowest pressure rate last year, that's gonna get worse
this year. Their secondary last year gave it the fourteenth
most passing yards the fifth most passing touchdowns last year.
Can we also say those numbers are going to be
worse this year? And this isn't me hating on genty.

(30:21):
I think he's gonna get a ton of volume. He
might get checkdowns for days and make me look stupid
on this call if game script goes sideways. But this,
I think the Patriot's gonna put up a ton of
points out of Week one and everybody's gonna be talking
about them after this game.

Speaker 1 (30:34):
Well, let me ask you this then, as sort of
a second question here, which rookie running back do you
like better in this game? If you think the Patriots
are gonna smash? Would you rather play Henderson the Gent too?

Speaker 2 (30:44):
No? I mean I'm playing genty for the volume. I'm
not getting that cute with it, but I am going
to be ranking wherever consensus is on Trevon Henderson. I'm
ranking him and Mandre above consensus because I think both
of them might get in the end zone even on
a limited touch volume. Like like, go look at their
depth chart. Their defensive line is terrible outside of Crosby,

(31:06):
like Hindo might pop like two huge runs in this
game and nobody should be shocked.

Speaker 1 (31:12):
If it's what do you think Gent at running back
or May at quarterback?

Speaker 3 (31:15):
Jeremy Chin is a pretty good defender for the Raiders.

Speaker 2 (31:17):
Deebro Oh good, they got two got too busy two.

Speaker 3 (31:21):
Yeah, I mean, like, so for what it's worth. Uh,
Matt Perrault, our primary betting pro's host, he is a
Patriots fan and he likes the Raiders in that game. Debro.
Oh yeah, that's.

Speaker 2 (31:35):
That's a self hating Patriots.

Speaker 3 (31:36):
It could be. It could be.

Speaker 2 (31:37):
That's all that.

Speaker 3 (31:38):
So I have I have as much as I like May.
I've Gent ranked RB six and May QB ten this week,
so I have to say, Genty, I think the Raiders
are gonna work Gent hard against a New England defense
that was pretty bad against the run last year, like
the Patriots gave up the third most rushing yards to
running backs. We know Raiders offensive coordinator Chip Kelly like

(32:00):
to push pace and if gent gets into a rhythm
like he could have a big day. This dude is special.
I forget which show was on, Like I if there
is a mount rushmore for running back prospects in the
last ten years, genty is on it, along with b
John Robinson, Sakuwon Barkley, and Ezekiel Elliott. Apologies to Jamiir Gibbs,

(32:23):
No I agree.

Speaker 1 (32:25):
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(32:47):
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(33:12):
All right, guys, next game here, We've got Cardinals at Saints.
True or false. After this game, we will be happy
with the way the Cardinals utilized. Marvin Harrison Junior Debra.

Speaker 2 (33:22):
You can go first false like be emphatically false.

Speaker 1 (33:26):
Emphatic false.

Speaker 2 (33:27):
Okay, I know that I'm not telling you the Saints
are going to be a good team. I'm not telling
you this defense is amazing. What I will say is
this coverage structure is Kyler and Marvin Harrison Junior's kryptonite.
Last year, like too High, they were both not great against,
and a lot of this is more. This is much
more emphatically late at the feet of Kyler Murray. But

(33:48):
that impacts Marvin Harrison Junior because if Kyler is not
going to play great, because it's really just preventing the
deep balls, but preventing the off schedule stuff like New
Orleans ran too high at the eighth high rate. Brandon
Staley coming in as their DC is going to keep
that in house. I think that's are is they're going
to run that back this year. And Marvin Errison Junior

(34:10):
against too High last year had an eighteen point six
percent target chair. Nothing has changed in that wide receiver room,
Drew Petsing. We're still hoping he learns how to utilize
Marvin Rrison Junior properly. He only had an eighteen point
six percent target chair against two high and one point
five three yards per route run. So I don't look
at this as being a Marvin Harrison Junior type of game.

(34:31):
I look at this as being a monster game for
Trade McBride and James Connor.

Speaker 3 (34:36):
That's I'm gonna give this one a reluctant true. But
it's like fifty to fifty man. And like, if the
Cardinals continue to like foolishly use Marvin Harrison as a
vertical receiver, then yet like because too high, as like
too high throttles the vertical receivers.

Speaker 2 (34:58):
But like.

Speaker 3 (35:00):
You know that Cardinals head coach Jonathan and Gannon and
offensive coordinator Drew Petsig spent a lot of time in
the offseason trying to figure out ways to get Harrison going.
Like that is a mandate for this organization. You cannot
have another season where the number four pick in the
draft is putting up Mohammed Sanu numbers. All right, okay,
well maybe it wasn't that bad.

Speaker 2 (35:19):
But no, I mean, you're not wrong, you know no, no, no, no,
you're not wrong. You're not wrong.

Speaker 3 (35:23):
You get the idea, like it is a priority for
that team to jumpstart Marvin Harrison Junior this year. But
on the other hand, like maybe Harrison is just never
going to click with Kyler Murray. Kyler doesn't throw it
to the middle of the field very often, and that's
where Harrison does some of his best work, or at
least he did at Ohio State. Just seemed like there
was not much chemistry between Kyler and Harrison last year,

(35:44):
and maybe that's an ongoing problem.

Speaker 1 (35:49):
Steelers at Jets. The total in this game at hard
Rock Bet is thirty nine, which is the lowest of
the week by a wide margin, despite the kind of
fun double quarterback revenge game. If I force you, guys
to pick one player in this matchup that you want
to be significantly above consensus on, and maybe I'm not
forcing you, maybe you do have it ranked this way.
I don't know, I didn't actually look, but if you

(36:09):
had to pick one to be significantly above consensus on,
who would it be fits.

Speaker 3 (36:14):
This game is definitely going to be a taffy poll.
But there is one guy I like above consensus, Jalen Warren,
like his Week one ECR is running back twenty seven.
But all indications from Mike Tomlin and from the preseason
usage we saw are that Jalen Warren is the clear
lead back in Pittsburgh going into Week one, and I

(36:35):
don't think rankers have really come to grips with that.
So Warren is going to OutKick his ECR this week.
And it's just like Debro, I know Caleb Johnson is
your guy, but we also know that Arthur Smith. You know,
if Arthur Smith can murder the rookie year value of
John Robinson, like he can certainly do it to Caleb

(36:56):
Johnson too.

Speaker 2 (36:57):
You're not wrong, Vinci, You're not wrong, hated, but you're
not wrong.

Speaker 1 (37:02):
Well, Devero, what do you think.

Speaker 2 (37:04):
I'm going to go further down the list here, and
I'm looking at just this matchup on paper, and I
think this lines up really well. And I've already bet
the over for his receiving yardage prop at hard Rock Bet.
It's at nineteen and a half. You can get minus
one fifteen on this. Mason Taylor, dude, I think Mason
Taylor is going to get a ton of targets this week.
Just let's zoom out a little bit, just straight up

(37:26):
just common sense talk here. Pittsburgh Steelers freaking past defense.
Do you think Justin Fields needs to be testing or
stressing or forcing the ball to Garrett Wilson versus Jalen Ramsey,
Joey Porter Junior, or Darius Slay. So regardless of wherever
they move Garrett Wilson this week, he's getting a tough

(37:46):
corner matchup. And you look at the defensive matchup for
this dude. Pittsburgh gave it the tenth most Fantasy points
per game and the eleventh most receiving yards to tight ends.
The way you avoid those corners is you feed Mason
Taylor a ton of targets this week.

Speaker 4 (38:00):
So I'm going with Mason Taylor in this.

Speaker 1 (38:03):
It's kind of like a useless one to pick because
he's three percent rostered. I actually I think Roman Wilson
is going to finish higher than his I mean, he's
wide receiver eighty six, So like, I don't mean, yeah,
you're starting Roman Wilson when you have.

Speaker 3 (38:15):
Kicks that rank.

Speaker 1 (38:16):
Wow. But I'm saying, if if I had to force
myself to pick one, and that's somebody because I just
don't want to pick anybody else. You said you were
going that's what I expected. Yeah, Yeah, really really ugly game.
Who do you guys think is win this one?

Speaker 3 (38:30):
Steelers?

Speaker 2 (38:31):
It's just all the defense I'm with. I think this
game is gonna be a rock fight. I bet the
under on the total. It's gonna be nasty.

Speaker 1 (38:39):
I drafted in leagues where I didn't get the guys
that the defenses I really wanted. But you know, I
always take the I take defense after I draft a
kicker if I'm in the league with both, because I
just know I'm going to stream the defense. Like that
is literally my last pick. I took the Jets in
a few places just because they were available, and I think,
like I think both teams are bad. It's gonna be
an ugly, low scoring game. Ugly my opinion. Steelers are

(39:01):
laying too.

Speaker 2 (39:02):
This is fourteen to fourteen to three kind of game
of fourteen, like ten.

Speaker 3 (39:07):
I'm looking just forward to that game in a perverse
sort of way.

Speaker 1 (39:10):
Yeah, you're like, it's like the sicko, like you're we're back,
Like football is back now.

Speaker 2 (39:15):
That's so ugly, it's beautiful.

Speaker 1 (39:17):
It should be a Thursday night game. That's ugly. O.

Speaker 2 (39:21):
Yes, this feels like a Jaguars Tennessee get Thursday night.

Speaker 1 (39:24):
Or well be in AFC South.

Speaker 2 (39:25):
Do we have to watch this?

Speaker 1 (39:27):
Like seriously, well you don't because thankfully it's on red zone,
so you don't really have to watch it because I'm sure,
I'm sure they're not going to show up on Red
Zone at all. If you want a chance to win
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(39:49):
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be sure subscribe and turn on those notifications so you
can be alerted when new episodes are up and to
claim your prize. All right, guys, last game in the
early slate Giants at Commanders. How many running backs in

(40:10):
this matchup are we willing to start as at least
a flex in week one? Because there's a lot of
different names that you could throw out here, but none
of them are like Surefire must start studs, So I'm
curious how many you're at least willing to start in
that flex range. Debra you can go first on this one.

Speaker 2 (40:25):
I mean, depending probably nobody, but I think there's two
guys that I would roll with depending on it, like
timeron Tracy just because the volume. Although the matchup is
horrible for him, I do think that he's gonna get
you know, sixty percent of the work or sixty percent
of the snaps at the gate considering cams Kataboo missed

(40:46):
a lot of time with a hamstring injury. So just
from a volume perspective, I get it, and I'll you know,
I'll run Bill Jacory Krossky Merrit out there and some
only because look like I, I do not care where
he's out on the dev chart. I think it's so
hilariously goofy that on social media, the same people that
will tweet, oh, Jacory Krossky Marrit is RB three on
the depth chart, but they won't tweet the Travion Henderson

(41:09):
was RB excuse me, RB four, but they won't tweet
that Travion Henderson was RB three on his respective depth
chart because the bags are two packed with Travion Anderson. No,
that must be garbage. Blah blah blah. It's like you're
talking out both sides of your mouth Man, So I
think Bill is going to be the guy that leads
the backfield, It gets the goal line carries this week.
Maybe that blows up in my face, but I'll flex

(41:31):
them in certain leagues where I need it fits.

Speaker 1 (41:34):
What do you think for both sides? How many running
backs are you willing to consider it?

Speaker 3 (41:38):
I mean, I am starting Tyrone Tracy on a team
where I kind of went with a zero RB build,
and I'm starting Austin Eckler on a team in a
deep league where you have to start like three flex guys.
But ideally you don't have to start any of these
guys because it's Week one and there are no buys
and fantasy teams are pretty healthy for the most part.

Speaker 1 (41:57):
Yeah, all right, let's move off that game to the
Sunday Late Slate Titans at Bratt excuse me, Titens at Broncos.
We generally love Calvin Ridley and Antony Pollard at cost
this season. Even cam Ward I felt like was a
really interesting later target in super flex leagues. But it's
Ward's first ever game going up against possibly the best
defense in the NFL. Some you know, people do have

(42:19):
it right that way. Should we be looking to sit
all three of those guys. If we can debro yes you.

Speaker 2 (42:25):
If you can, you should like Pollard's a volume bet.
I understand if you got a roll with him as
a flex or an RB two depending on your builds.
I'm not telling you to feel great about it. This
game is gonna be again. This is another I think
this game could be quietly like a nasty game, like
really is going to go into the shadow realm Patrick
Certain is gonna shut him down, dude, Like Certain shadowed

(42:49):
seven times last year against a laundry list of who's
who in the NFL like DK Metcalf, Jamar Chase, Mike Evans,
George Pickens, DeAndre Hopkins, Jerry Judy, and Garrett Wilson. He
followed them on sixty to ninety six percent of their
routes and none of those receivers, none of them eclips
fifty four receiving yards in his coverage. So, Calvin Ridley,

(43:12):
I'm burying you in ranks this week, sir Pollard. It's
a volume bet only fits.

Speaker 3 (43:18):
I mean, I want to play Pollard like when I
rank running backs, I weigh projected volume more than I
weigh matchup. And yeah, Denver is a tough matchup with
ty J Spears on IR though Tony Pollard is in
for some heavy touch volume this week, especially especially since
the Titans are not going to want to let Cam

(43:39):
Wore drop back forty times against that nasty Denver pass
rush in his NFL debut, Like Denver's pass rush is
seriously wicked and like they're gonna want to run the
ball to just counter that. So yeah, I mean, I
might have Ridley ranked two high. I've got him as
like a low end wide receiver three like certain is
definitely a match up to be avoided. But you know,

(44:03):
on the other hand, I could see Ridley getting eight
to ten targets, Like I don't think the target efficiency
is going to be great, but I think if you're
in a pinch, you could play if.

Speaker 2 (44:13):
If Ward feeds him eight to ten targets, certains picking
him off at least once.

Speaker 1 (44:19):
I feel like like even if guy like Polar, if
he's gonna get the volume, Like I don't think he's
going to score to Like, I just feel like they're
gonna put Ward in a blender and there's not gonna
be any touchdowns score or like maybe one fluke one
And I'm not going to bet on any one of
these guys to get it. But depending on your bills,
you might not really have a better option. So it's
not like.

Speaker 2 (44:36):
There's a decent volume bet but the matchups. Yeah, you know, so,
I man, I get it.

Speaker 1 (44:41):
Yeah, let's go to Game eleven, forty nine Ers at Seahawks.

Speaker 4 (44:44):
Fits.

Speaker 1 (44:44):
I'll start with you on this one. With Juan Jennings
back and practicing, are we going to start him right away?

Speaker 3 (44:49):
And week one?

Speaker 1 (44:50):
How wide is the gap between Jennings and Pear Salt
in your week one rankings?

Speaker 3 (44:54):
So the gap for me? I have Pearcell ranked wide
receiver thirty five, Jennings wide receiver forty two. I don't
I want to play Jennings this week. Like, aside from
the layoff and the bad vibes with him in the
contract impass, it's just a really tough matchup. Like the
forty nine Ers are on the road against Seattle, and
the Seahawks have a really good pair of cornerbacks in
Devon Witherspoon and Riek Wollon Debra.

Speaker 2 (45:16):
I think there's gonna be like, I'm worried about the
Seattle defense. I do have a little more faith in
the forty nine Ers, Like I've got Pearsawid wide receiver
twenty five and Jennings at twenty nine. This is assuming
and making assumptions that Jenning's going to play like a
full time snapshare, which you know. I think then the
calf stuff was a lot of contract related stuff because
magically he's fully back in practice and stuff, and you know,

(45:39):
this being a wide receiver that he's been in this
system for years, so it's not like he's losing a
lot of like the continuity and things like that with
the quarterback and the system and stuff like that. So
I think both of them are wide receiver threes. I
don't love the matchup. I will say like with the corners,
I will say that that they quietly did give up
the ninth most Fantasy points per game to perimeter wide

(46:00):
receivers last year. So it's not saying like on paper
like I don't want to challenge Riek Wolan and Josh
job on the outside, but this is a forty nine
Ers offense. They are going to get volume and they
quietly did you know they were had by.

Speaker 4 (46:15):
Perimeter wide receivers last year?

Speaker 1 (46:17):
Despite the talent we could move off this matchup. I
thought it was a weirdly difficult matchup to come up
with interesting questions about it. I feel like both teams,
like outside of the Juwan Jennings like injury sort of
you know element, I feel like both teams, it's pretty
obvious who you want to start and who is not
you're not interested in starting. I do think like both
these defenses could actually end up being really good this year.

(46:37):
Like it's a lot back in San Francisco. I think
the Seahawks could be like a top three defense this year.
Mike McDonald like year or two. I'm really bullish on
the defense. But the guys that you want to start
are pretty clear, I think. So we'll move off this one.
Lions at Packers. This would like be the game of
the week if not for Bill's Ravens. So I do
want to ask you, guys, who you think is going
to win this game. But we'll end with that first

(46:59):
time hit. On the fantasy side, we generally ranked the Lions'
best players kind of the same way we did when
Ben Johnson was in town in terms of the draft rankings,
Like we weren't expecting too deep of a fall off.
It felt like in the expert consensus rankings. But with
Johnson gone, do you expect, not from the season long perspective,
but from the week one perspective this offense to maybe
take a little while to gel under a new play
caller and play designer, or do you think we should

(47:22):
be ranking their guys aggressively or at least as we
would as normal right away in week one? Fits?

Speaker 3 (47:28):
So for Week one, I'm ranking the Lions running backs
pretty normally, like I think Detroit will try to get
the running game going to keep the Micah Parsons led
Green Bay pass rush from taking over the game. And
you know, to get Micah Parsons, the Packers had to
trade away Kenny Clark, their defensive tackle who was probably
their best interior run stuffer the last couple of years.

(47:50):
So maybe it's a better game for David Montgomery than
some people expect. But I'm ranking all the components of
the Detroit passing game pretty conservative. I think I'm behind
ecr on all of Jared Goff. I'm in Ross, Saint Brown,
Jamison Williams, and maybe Sam Laporta too.

Speaker 1 (48:11):
Debra.

Speaker 2 (48:13):
I actually think the Lions are gonna take to the
air in this game. I just look at the Green
Bay secondary and Fitzy, I know we've talked about this
on other shows, Like I just I don't know what
you be scared about, like looking at their secondary, like
outside of the pass rush, and this is making assumptions
Like I think the Lions, we could talk about their
their offensive line is not what it was last year.
I still think it's good enough. I don't even know

(48:34):
if we see because Parsons is dealing with the back injury, Fitzy,
do you think he's gonna be a full time snap player?
Do you think he's just gonna be on rushdowns this week?
Like missing camp, missing training camp and the back issue,
Like I kind of look at him as being a
part time player at the gate. But do you, I mean,
how do you? How are you?

Speaker 3 (48:49):
No? I agree with you on that. I don't think
he plays a full compliment of snaps.

Speaker 2 (48:53):
Yeah, and and I think that helps Detroit. But even
losing Kenny Clark, Kenny Clark was not great last year.
Like his run defense that they've dropped. He's actually fallen
off the map in the last four years from run
defense grades, like he hasn't crested a sixty two grade
for Pff in run defense. And I know grades aren't everything,
but like even like all the football heads, like film

(49:15):
watchers will tell you the same thing. Like Green Bay
outside of Kenny Clark, their run defense was elite last year.
Like they gave up the third fewest rushing arts per
game in the second lowest miss tackle rate. So I
honestly don't look at losing Kenny Clark as like a
really big impact as much as some. I think it's
gonna be a harder game for David Montgomery. I think
that Jared Goff and the Lions should come out test

(49:37):
this secondary early often and just light it up, dude. Like,
I'm not worried about Keishawn Nixon, I'm not worried about
Nate Hobbs. I'm not worried about whoever they're going to
run out as the nickel Like, I'm just not. Like,
I think this is a really good spot for Detroit
to take to the air, and really I think this
game could shoot out if it does. Lions are just

(49:57):
having their way through the air.

Speaker 1 (50:00):
Like I said, probably the game of the week besides
Ravens Bills, Packers are laying two and a half at
home on hard Rock bet which side are you taking?

Speaker 2 (50:07):
Debro, I've already bet the Detroit money line. It's plus money.
I don't know how we look like, I just don't
understand why why. I get the fact that the Packers
are at home, but I don't understand looking at this matchup.
I feel like losing the coordinators and all that kind
of stuff is really carrying a lot of the debt,
like for the betting lines and stuff like that. Like,

(50:28):
I think the Lions are going to win this and
I think, honestly they should be favored in.

Speaker 1 (50:31):
This Fits, Do you agree? I mean, obviously you have
an emotional attachment to this game.

Speaker 3 (50:36):
I do, But over the last three years, the Lions
are five and one against the Packers, Like dank, like.

Speaker 2 (50:41):
Why why are the Packers favored in this game? Fits? Like,
I don't understand.

Speaker 1 (50:46):
It's because they're it's because they're home and the excitement around.

Speaker 3 (50:48):
Yeah, I think, yeah, I think it should be closer
to a pick them. Like Dan Campbell just seems to
have Matt Leafleur's number right now. So I too, have
bet the Lions in this game, although I took the
points round than going money line.

Speaker 2 (51:02):
A plus money line for the Lions.

Speaker 4 (51:04):
I couldn't stay away, Man, couldn't stay away.

Speaker 1 (51:06):
Last game in the Sunday Late Slate is Texans at Rams.
How will CJ. Stroud and the Texans offense look in
their first game with a new play caller end a
somewhat different, let's not say improved, yet somewhat different looking
offensive line.

Speaker 2 (51:19):
De bro, I think it's gonna look good man. You
look at the Rams secondary, which is pretty much largely
intact from what they did last year, and you know,
going through all the Week one stuff, it's like, Okay,
what changed in the offseason? Do they get new corners?
They get in new DC and all that kind of stuff.
The Rams are just kind of running it back, dude,
and looking at that like we're discussing a pass defense

(51:42):
that weeks ten through eighteen last year gave it the
fourth highest success rate per dropback, sixth highest CPA per dropback,
and the eleventh most passing touchdown. So, like, am I
worried about the Rams pass rush? Yeah, to an extent.
I still I'm not very worried about their corner. So
I think Stroud's gonna look good man. I think you're
going to see a big game from multiple receivers now,

(52:04):
whether that's Jayden Higgins or maybe happy birthday to Jalen Nole.
Maybe he gets on the field because Christian Kirk is
dealing with a hamstring injury. But I think it's gonna
be a good game for Stroud.

Speaker 1 (52:12):
I do fits what do you think you? I feel
like maybe this is just anecdotal. I don't I didn't
go back and check, but I feel like you have
been the analyst that is most kind of like not
faded the Texans, but being just wary of like, are
we sure the offensive line really improved enough to help
these guys get to where we want to see them go?
How do you feel about it in this first match.

Speaker 3 (52:31):
Spot on worm, I think the Houston offensive line is
still a major problem, and you know, good luck to
the Texans trying to keep Jared Verse out of CJ.
Stroud's face. Like, I just I don't know how well
the Texans are going to be able to run the
ball with some combination of Nick Chubb Damian Pierce. What
he marks like the under in Texans rams is my
favorite pat of the week.

Speaker 1 (52:52):
Oh yeah, what's the line on that?

Speaker 3 (52:55):
It's forty three and a half I believe.

Speaker 1 (52:57):
Okay, yeah, I mean not only the offensive line on
that side, but like the Texas defense should be really
good this year. And you know Stafford, you know, some
degree of back issue a year coming into the season.

Speaker 2 (53:09):
Yeah, like that that that that's that's the worry where
I think Donder could hit, like Stafford takes a big
shot in this game and he goes out, Like I'm
not I don't want to see that happen, and I'm
not projecting injuries. I want to be very very clear
about that, right, I don't feel good about his.

Speaker 3 (53:22):
Now a quarterback, I can't move with Will Anderson and
Daniel Hunter steaming in off the edges. This is going
to be I think this is going to be a
really low scoring game.

Speaker 2 (53:33):
Yeah.

Speaker 1 (53:33):
I mean it's the same thing with like Tua, Like
nobody wants to see him taking another concussion, but like
you have to think about it in the back of
your mind when you're kind of projecting out a game.
We're not projecting an injury. There. Same thing with Stafford's back,
Like nobody wants to see his back, you know, messed up,
and we are not going to project it. But it
is a possibility that you have to be aware of.
At least let's get to Sunday night football Ravens at

(53:54):
Bill's possibly the game of the year already here in
week one. I hate that this game is in week one.
By the way, this would be a great like early November,
late October Sunday night football game. I don't want this
in week one, but the schedule they came up with.
Is there anybody that you guys would actually fade in
this one or is this an obvious like start everyone
scenario you see nodding your heads, We'll go to you first.

Speaker 2 (54:15):
This is a fade a lot of players. Fitz. He's
talking about his favorite underbed of the week. I ran
i sprinted really bet the under at fifteen and a
half right now it's minus one ten and hard rock bad. Yeah, Like,
just just line all this up. Okay. Take take the
fact that Josh Allen and Lamar are playing in this game, which,
by the way, neither one of them played in the

(54:35):
preaking preseason. Neither one of these teams ran their starters
a bunch in the preseason. We talk about rust and
teams coming out rusty in Week one, but we're expecting
that this game is going to shoot out with a
fifty and a half freaking total. And also we haven't
even talked about Both of these teams have good if not,

(54:55):
we could talk about elite tier defenses, but yet we
I think this game is gonna be fireworks and shootout
potential and all the things and stuff. I'm just not
seeing it, man. I think this game is gonna hit
the under You look at Jams Cook, I'm worried about him.
The Ravens last year weeks ten through eighteen gave it
the fourth est rushing yards per game, third lowest explosive

(55:16):
run rate. You talk about Zay Flowers versus too high coverage,
Buffalo is gonna run a ton of that. They're top
five in at last year he had one point five
to three yards per route run point zero six to
eight first downs per out run. Everybody that's on a
mathead out there that it's not good at all. Khalil Shakir.
Now he's gonna face Marlin hun Free all freaking game
against the secondary that gave up the eleventh fewest Fantasy

(55:39):
points per game to slot receivers. No, I don't think
this game is gonna put up a ton of points.
Maybe I am absolutely wrong on this. There's nothing I
look at on paper and then you want to stack
up narratives fifty and a half total just feels like
window dressing for with the two teams without considering everything
else fits.

Speaker 1 (55:59):
I'm curious if you agree with deebra about the elite defenses.
I see the case for the Ravens just what they
did in the second half of last year and then
adding you know, Starks and Green with the first two
picks in the draft, like there's there's a clear case
to make for them as an elite defense. I don't
really see the case for the Bills. I think they'll
be They're a fine defense. I'm not saying they're gonna
be terrible, but I don't know if they're on that
same level as as Baltimore's defense. The other thing that

(56:19):
I would say is like I felt like the Bills
did a good job of running against the Ravens in
the playoff game when they were at home, and the
Ravens don't have Michael Pierce anymore, who was a big
key to their run defense last year. They didn't really
I think, do a great job of replacing them. I
think the defense is still really good, but I do
worry about stopping the run against Buffalo. So what do
you think? Do you agree with Debra that this is
a case where you're actually open to taking the under

(56:41):
and fading a lot of the players in this one.

Speaker 3 (56:43):
No, I mean, like, I think the Bills defense is
probably above average, but elite. I'm not going there. You know,
if we if we could turn back the clock and
have this be like prime Joey Bosa and Tredevious White
instead of thirty something Joey Boson Tredevius White, maybe Yeah,

(57:05):
I mean it's a okay defense, above average. I like,
I think the Bells are legit Super Bowl contenders for sure,
but yeah, I mean, I do think the Ravens have,
you know, pretty close to an elite defense though, so
in this game, Like, I'm not rushing to get Dalton
can Cater Rashad Bateman into my lineup, but I think
you start all the main characters.

Speaker 1 (57:28):
Okay, Deever, what do you think about that what I
mentioned about like Michael Pierce, Because I do think there's
a chance that if the Ravens have a weakness this year,
it's their run defense.

Speaker 2 (57:37):
It could be Now I think that you know, there's
something to be for continuity's sake. I think, like despite
what we saw in the playoffs, like I mentioned, like
the Ravens run defense was really stinking good the back
half of last year. So like losing Michael Pierce, it's
like fine, Like you take them out of elite tier status,
which the numbers say they were the back half of
last year, take them out of eleaite tear status. Okay,

(57:58):
they're above average, Like I think there's a case to
be made, but it's like, also, they're all remaining continuity
on that defense outside of Pierce. There's something to be
said for that too.

Speaker 3 (58:10):
Yeah.

Speaker 1 (58:11):
I did want to throw this second question away on
this one because it's such a big game. Hard Rock
bet has the Ravens minus one in Buffalo. Who wins
the game? Either of you?

Speaker 3 (58:21):
By the Ravens have the best roster in the AFC.

Speaker 2 (58:25):
Ravens their defense is nasty, like they're sick and dary.
You talk about the best starting three corners in the NFL,
it's Pittsburgh and Baltimore are both up there.

Speaker 4 (58:34):
In that conversation, like it's.

Speaker 1 (58:36):
M I think I think Buffalo wins the game because.

Speaker 2 (58:40):
They're at home you're a self. It's fine.

Speaker 1 (58:43):
If they were in Baltimore, I'd picked the Ravens. In Buffalo,
I'm picking the Bills. See, there's just so good that,
you know, I'm just going to give the slight edge
to home field advantage. Homer's got a Homer and the
Ravens too. Like a lot of people are saying, oh,
they're going to come out really angry they lost, like
because that's the team you end up their last season.
They lost to the Chiefs last year when the Chiefs
ended their season before, like in Week one. So we

(59:06):
just saw this kind of same narrative playout and they
didn't win. It was a really close game. I think
this will be a close game. The Ravens are the
better roster, I think actually, like maybe even by a
wide marchin I think the defense is that much better
than Buffalo's that I actually do think the Ravens are
clearly the better team.

Speaker 2 (59:19):
This This is regular season Ravens and not playoff where
Todd Monkin gets goofy and decides he's gonna throw the
ball at crap Ton and get away from what they've
done the entire year. So if this is in the playoffs,
probably agree with you, worm, but it's.

Speaker 1 (59:32):
I did pick Debro on the Thursday show we do
our touchdown Calls contest, and I had to pick tight
end this week, and I did pick Mark Andrews because
I do think the revenge game heleman. Yeah, they are
going to try to get him a touchdown.

Speaker 2 (59:43):
Yeah, you got. You gotta believe that they're they're going
to feature the big man some try to get it.

Speaker 1 (59:47):
If there's an opportunity, they will, they will give it
to it.

Speaker 2 (59:49):
Like this is one of those kind of games where
like it's also the playoff implications things you're doing and
stuff like that. You got you got to kind of
get some guys right too, because you know you're going
to see them again later in the year for sure.

Speaker 1 (01:00:00):
Yeah, it's a huge game. Like I said, I wish
it wasn't Week one, but will be a very fun one,
very nerve wracking Sunday night for me. Let's go to
Monday Night football here to wrap things up. Vikings at Bears.
Who has a better Week one? Caleb Williams in his
first game under Ben Johnson or JJ McCarthy in his
first game ever in the NFL. I think we know
what direction Debro's going. So I'll go to fits first.

Speaker 3 (01:00:21):
Yeah, I mean, I'll say JJ McCarthy, Like it's a
good bet that JJ McCarthy is going to play the
way Kevin O'Connell wants him to play. And I don't
know if we can say the same thing about Caleb Williams,
like I want to believe that it will work out
this year, and Caleb makes a year or two leap.
I just worry that he is a chronic improv guy

(01:00:42):
and can't stick to the script. And you know that
Ben Johnson is a guy who wants his actors to
follow the script.

Speaker 1 (01:00:50):
Also, the defense is, you know, just going up against
the Vikings. I feel like they could Flora. Yeah, I
know they've tried to improve. They have improved the offensive line,
I think more so than at Houston. I do believe
Chicago has improved their offensive line, but I don't know
if it's enough against the coordinator and a defense like
Floras in Minnesota. So that's a kind of knock against Caleb.

(01:01:10):
Dee bro out like, we know you're going with McCarthy.

Speaker 2 (01:01:13):
I mean, yeah, but McCarthy's the right answer here too,
Like you look at you look at and that's really
what I want to lean on here. Like JJ has
faced the Brian Flores defense all of camp and the offseason,
he's just probably like he's probably not gonna do this.
But if I was JJ, you just walk up to Caleb,
you just shake his hand and say before the game,
good luck.

Speaker 4 (01:01:32):
That's all I got for you.

Speaker 2 (01:01:33):
Good luck because Brian Flores. Man, you want to talk
about a guy like we know he's gonna heat him up. Man,
Like the Minnesota Vikings led the freaking NFL in blitz
rate last year, They're probably gonna be top three to
five again. This year. They were sixth in pressure rate.
So you're telling me like in a brand new offense.
We saw Caleb in the preseason and everybody's ooing an

(01:01:54):
eye when he got two step drop ball out, three
step drop ball out and like wide open wide receiver.
You think you're gonna see that in Week one Caleb
versus the Minnesota Vikings defense and with Brian Flores is
about to throw at you a man. So I look
at you know, the secondary for the Vikings. Sure you

(01:02:14):
can have some questions that the amount they're gonna blitz
him and the pressure they can bring can cover up
a lot of sins on the back end, and not
to say that their secondary isn't still really stinking good,
but I think I think this game honestly is probably
gonna be more of a low scoring affair. I think
they're gonna probably try to ease JJ into this game.
I think you're gonna see a lot of Aaron Jones

(01:02:34):
and Jordan Mason just based off of how the matchup looks.
So I think, you know, fantasy wise, NFL wise, JJ
is gonna out play Caleb in this game, and I
think Caleb could honestly struggle man. Brian Flores is not
going to play around dude, like, considering what he did
in his rookie season and it being a new offense
and stuff like that, all these parts and pieces being
brand new. You get him off his mark by blitzing

(01:02:57):
the ever loving crap at him, and we know that's
going to happen.

Speaker 1 (01:03:01):
Caleb's ranked higher and e CRI's QB eighteen McCarthy's QB
twenty one, so they're both, you know, not starters unless
you're in not shocked by that at all based on
the rankings, where do you actually specific will wrap up
with this Where do you have them ranked specifically?

Speaker 2 (01:03:13):
I've got Caleb ranked at QB twenty one. I'm still
trying to figure out where JJ is going to be.
He's gonna be somewhere in that low to mid QB
two range only because of the matchup this week, and
I just I like other quarterbacks better.

Speaker 1 (01:03:26):
But bit's where do you have them ranked?

Speaker 3 (01:03:29):
Fourteen for Caleb, twenty for McCarthy. But I think McCarthy
will play better than that. I just don't expect heavy
volume from McCarthy.

Speaker 2 (01:03:37):
Yeah, I think this game is going to hit the
under another under.

Speaker 1 (01:03:40):
So a lot of unders this week for you deepro
It sounds like Week one.

Speaker 2 (01:03:43):
Baby, team's got to get you know. I mean the
preseason is basically non existent for all these starters nowadays,
you know, and so you're going to see low scoring affairs,
not like a lot of like highest scoring games, and
that's just how it goes Man to start the season.

Speaker 1 (01:03:57):
We'll wrap things up there. Thanks everybody for tuning in.
We are very back. That was you know, fun stepping
back into the Questions and the Friday Show, and we've
got obviously by the time we're listening to this, we
will have seen football, so we are like actually back,
which is just super fun and exciting. So looking forward
to doing the show with you guys all season long.
Looking forward to everybody in the comments hanging out with
us all season long, and hopefully you enjoy the show

(01:04:18):
and you know, we have a lot of fun and
win some fantasy leagues. This here for Debro and Fits.
I'm Ryan Warmley. Thanks for tuning in. We'll see you
next time. Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy
Football podcast. If you love the show, the best free
way to support us is by leaving a positive review
on Apple podcasts at Fantasypros dot com, slash review, or

(01:04:39):
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Start Jauan Jennings? | The 10 Biggest Fantasy Football Questions for Week 1 (Ep. 1690)

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.css-14f5ked{margin:0;word-break:break-word;display:-webkit-box;-webkit-box-orient:vertical;box-orient:vertical;-webkit-line-clamp:2;overflow:hidden;}Start Jauan Jennings? | The 10 Biggest Fantasy Football Questions for Week 1 (Ep. 1690)