Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Hello everybody, Welcome into the Fantasy Pros Football Podcast. I'm
(00:03):
Ryan Warmley, joined as I am every Tuesday by Andrew Ericsson. Buddy,
we are talking week fifteen predictions. Yes, that's right, we
are into the fantasy playoffs for just about every league
out there. This is week two of this iteration of
the show. Once you get past the trade deadlines, this
is kind of what the show turns into if you
missed last week, just a quick refresher. We're gonna be
(00:23):
doing some predictions. We'll go five to one from each
of us first four kind of in order. The last
one is our sort of best bet of the week,
and we're going to track and see who does better
throughout the season. Here. We had our first episode of
this version of the show last week. We're going to
continue it with this week and the next few and
really see who does better. Ericson before we dive into
(00:43):
how we did last week, just a quick you know
check in here at the playoffs. How did you do?
How many playoffs did you make? How many buys did
you earn? How is your sort of overall I hate
using the word portfolio, but how is your portfolio looking? Here?
As we embark upon the fantasy postseason.
Speaker 2 (00:57):
As the kids like to say, it's pretty MD for
the most part. I snuck into all my fantasy playoffs
for the most part as the number six seed, so
all you gotta do is get to the dance. Anything
can happen. I'm probably gonna lose one team week by
week as the as it get exposed a little bit
here because I didn't have a ton of dominant teams
(01:18):
except the one that in the content team league where
I was the number one seed, actually had to buy
this past week. So I also think I had another
leagu where the playoffs started last week, which I don't
understand why.
Speaker 1 (01:27):
Point of order, I was the number two seed and
also had to buy this last week. So let's see.
The two of us are really representing that content league
strong here. It's not just you don't don't don't take
that away from me.
Speaker 2 (01:36):
Yeah, And I probably would have been screwed if I
didn't have the buyer because I.
Speaker 1 (01:39):
Oh, I totally would have been My team scored like
eighty this week.
Speaker 2 (01:43):
I would have had to start Tron Taylor, who got injured,
so that would have been really bad because I had
drake me out of bye week, so Drake May's back
based the Bills this week and be a shootout. So yeah,
looking forward to it. Week fifteen. Playoffs are here for
the majority of leagues, and this is the time where hey,
time to show out. Weeks one or fourteen doesn't matter anymore.
It's zero zero, it's winner, take all, lose and go home.
(02:05):
Let's break it down and with some of these predictions,
get people set for the week, at least the start
of the week.
Speaker 1 (02:10):
Some quick accountability for me. Fourteen leagues I was in
this year. I made the playoffs in eleven of them,
and four of those I received it by Ironically, one
of the three leagues I did not make the playoffs in,
I had the third most points scored this season. It
was just dumb luck, and you know, sometimes it works
out that way. But eleven out of fourteen plus four buys,
so I feel it pretty good. I've had a few
(02:32):
years in a row where I got a lot of
teams to the semifinals and then lost in the semifinals
in almost every league, so I'm hoping we don't have
that repeat itself, but sure feels like it's shaping up
that way right now. Quickly before we get into the
predictions part of the show, any thoughts on Monday Night
Football for the listeners, any recap here from Eagles Chargers.
Obviously I was predicting that the Eagles are going to
(02:53):
smash the Chargers. Clearly did not happen. Any fancy takeaway.
I mean, a game like that was so many turn
that's inherently fluky, probably not going to happen again, and
it just kind of throws the rhythm of the whole
game into whack.
Speaker 2 (03:06):
I mean, Jalen Hurts had a play where he had
negative four points.
Speaker 1 (03:10):
I have never seen that in my whole I doubt
anybody has. I didn't look it.
Speaker 2 (03:13):
Up, but I mean I thought that the Mahomes catch
for negative ten yards was gonna be the biggest and
negative play that we see from a quarterback. But Jalen
Hurts took the cake with again. He threw four interceptions,
had the fumble on one of his interceptions. Just terrible
day at the office for Jalen Hurts, but bounce back
spot for the Philadelphia Eagles next week against the Las
Vegas Raiders. Second mark, he looked good again. Ripped off
(03:34):
an explosive fifty yard touchdown run against the Chargers, who
have kind of been a boom er bus run defense.
I think it's kind of status quo with the Eagles players. Again,
we know that the offense can be bumpy at times. Again,
it was a tough amount up charge defense has been
good this year. I think more of the story was
the Chargers offense with Omary Hampton coming back, still kind
of a SMLIT committee, with Mne Videl kind of being
the He started the game, looked pretty good, had that
(03:56):
sixty yard catch on the first drive Hampton ended up scoring.
Hampton did out touch him in the red zone, which
I think is pretty key five to one, and I
would expect Hampton to probably take on the sixty percent
in a sixty kind of forty split. I just don't
think we'll go back to Hampton as eighty percent of
the snaps because Fidel has been really good for the
most part for the Chargers kind of filling in, so
I think he's gonna still have a role. But I
(04:16):
will say the Chargers turned into a much heavier run
offense with all this justin Herbert injury injuries on their
offensive line against the Eagles defense, their pass right over
expectation was negative twelve percent in against the Eagles. It
was plus four percent every other game or from weeks
one through thirteen, and he was constant under pressure. I
believe that from next Gen stats they had that Justin
(04:40):
Herbert was pressured on sixty eight percent of his dropbacks,
which is the highest pressure rate of any quarterback this season.
And you know who's facing next week is the Kansaity Chiefs,
who pressured CJ. Strout on fifty four percent of his
dropbacks on Sunday Night football. So I would say right
now with his Chargers passing game, you can't start anybody
(05:02):
except lad who is probably more of a wide receiver
two to three play than a back end wide receiver one,
which is kind of where he's been ranked since he
started heating up a little bit towards the mid of
the season. But can't trus Kanan Allen, can't trus Quinn Johnson,
can't trus Gatston either, who has kind of falling off
a cliff. I know he was one of the guys
I hit on other productions last week where expecting him
to kind of disappoint year and again another dud from
(05:24):
him with just one catch so very concerned about the
Chargers passing game Herbert is running, which I thought was
I mean, the Eagles are trying to punch hint, punch
his hand last night, right, They're like, oh, we're punching
the ball. It's like, now we're trying to punch his
hand and make him uncomfortable. But give credit to Justin Herbert, man,
like the dude balled out gutsy performance playing with a
broken hand that I was utterly impressed he.
Speaker 1 (05:46):
I mean, I've been impressing m from week one this season, right,
Like I remember talking with you after that first game
and saying like this, it just looks like a different
Justin Herbert. Like it feels like he leveled up this year. Obviously,
injury stuff has been in an issue. Has it totally
panned out that way, but yeah, I just I continue
to be really impressed with with what we've seen out
of Herbert this season. I have like pretty high hopes
(06:06):
for him if everything's healthy going into next season. Speaking
of your that around a Gadsden pick, you went three
and two last week. We're giving you the the Bucky
Irving RB one finished because it was technically true. He
was RB twelve spiritually. You know, we talked about the
spiritual last he did. He didn't exactly have this big
blow up game that you were He didn't his prop
(06:26):
which is now what we're tracking. He didn't have the
big blow up gave you really talking about. It's kind
of a down week. Four running backs. Outside of the
first couple, he scored like fifteen points. It was a
good week. You were happy you started. Bucky Irving catching
the touchdown pass helped. We'll give it to you. It
wasn't exactly the blow up game we were maybe anticipating.
Speaker 2 (06:44):
Here's our RB twelve on a week with four teams
on bye. Yeah, just snuck in and basically if Ydell
and had like combined their score to.
Speaker 1 (06:52):
One, say yes, if they would have been, he would have.
Speaker 2 (06:56):
Been RB thirteen and would have would have taken me out.
But he technically still talked te running fantasy RB one.
Speaker 1 (07:01):
So it did get you up to a three and
two winning record in Week fourteen. I also had a
three and two record. There was no real gray area
for mine. I missed on Chris Ardriguez and the Eagles
smashing the Chargers. The others I hit very easily. You
know your yours were mostly like pretty straightforward besides the
Bucky one. So if you want to drop in the
(07:21):
comments that you strongly disagree with counting the bucket hit,
let us know. But obviously he did hit top twelve,
so I think it's fair to leave it there, which
means we're tied three and two apiece here through one week.
Like I said, we'll keep track of that throughout the season.
Let's get into our five predictions here, Ericson for Week fifteen,
starting with you, what's number five?
Speaker 2 (07:41):
Number five prediction going to Thursday night football, Mecca Abuca
is going to bounce back here against the Atlanta Falcons.
Been extremely frustrating for the Buccaneers. Rookie wide receiver basically
since that hamstring injury he had in a game where
the Buccaneers lost a bunch of their wide receivers, just
been really inefficient for most of his week. He did
have one blow up game against the Patriots, but besides that,
(08:03):
it's been a lot of targets, a lot of air yards,
and a lot of disappointment for Emcca Agbuka because and
it's crazy, we were thinking that, Okay, the concern with
that Buk coming in is we're not gonna see enough
volume from him. You know, Godwin's there, Evans is there,
and then it gets the perfect runout right where those
guys go down, those guys miss so much time, and
we're thinking, Okay, the target floodgates are going to open.
(08:26):
And that has really been the case for him. If
you look at his expected points per game since Week seven,
he has number three an expected Fantasy points per game.
He's a twenty nine plus percent target share in his
last seven games. However, nobody has scored fewer fantasy points
verse expectation then Buk negative fifty five. He's scoring almost
(08:47):
eight fantasy points less than he should be. So again,
I'm this isn't a breaking analysis. If you have him
on your team, you know he's been a big disappointment,
But we still have to consider what kind of usage
he's seeing in this offense. He's still the target alpha
leader in this Buccaneers passing game. So against the Atlanta Falcons,
I think he can finish as the top twenty wide receiver.
(09:09):
He had faced the Falcons back in Week one when
Mike Evans was healthy in the lineup. He went for
sixty seven yards. He caught two touchdowns. He was a
top three wide receiver. Believe he finished wide receiver three
on the week. So I think he's going to go
over fifty one and a half receiving yards. You're going
to see his receiving prop drop, probably substantially just because
of how poor he has been in the last couple weeks.
And I do think that if Mike Evans does come back,
(09:32):
which there is a chance that this can take some
pressure off of Abuka where maybe the targets fall a
little bit, but his efficiency can boost back up. Todd
Woles is already talked about, Hey, we want to get
him going early. We want to build up his confidence
in this particular matchup. And when you look at the
x's and o's, I would expect Ajterrell to shadow Mike Evans.
If Evans plays in this game. That's what we saw
(09:52):
in week one. That should give some more favorable matchups
to some of these weaker cornerbacks on the Falcons for Abuca.
So I like a Buka in this spot here to
be a top twenty guy. I think you still have
to start because there's just too much volume. We don't
know what like Evan's role will be necessarily, but I
think that when he is on the field, he's gonna
draw coverage from AJ Terrell. So I'm going back to
a book guy. I know it's been disappointing, but he'll
(10:12):
be a top twenty guy this week.
Speaker 1 (10:14):
It's more than disappointing. I'll even take the San Francisco
in Detroit games just I'm not even gonna count them
because obviously he got hurt against San Francisco and Detroit,
like nobody thought he was going to play in that game.
He did end up playing in getting twelve targets, but
like he was limited that entire week. So like, I'll
take those two off the table here. Going back the
other last I think it's six games, yeah, six games.
(10:35):
His finishes wide receiver fifty five, wide receiver four, wide
receiver forty four, Wide receiver fifty wide receiver forty three,
Wide receiver seventy six. I mean, it has been not
just disappointing, it's been like pretty much unplayable in all
of these games he does. He has one game since
Week five with over eight Fantasy points and half VPR scoring,
(10:55):
and that's that game against New England where he was
wide receiver four. That is his game with a touchdown
since week five, he of course had the opportunity to
catch on this last week. He's not been on the
same page with Baker, but he's also been you know,
having you know, some drops here and there and just
not looking as good. Like it's just it's just been
bad all the way around. It really feels like and
I wanted to point out ericson Ibuka is finally moving
(11:17):
down in ECR. Going into last week, he was still
like I forget. I was like, why if he were
fourteen or so ahead of week fourteen. Now in you know,
early early rankings. Obviously it's still only Tuesday morning, this
could change, but in early rankings he's not at wide
receiver twenty six that the managers and then the rankers
in the industry are finally saying, listen, we got to
move this guy down in consensus. He's in fact, one
(11:39):
spot behind Chris Godwin, his teammating consensus in this early
part of the week ahead of week fifteen. So does
that feel like an area where you're going to be
well ahead of consensus or are you also going to
be moving him down.
Speaker 2 (11:50):
I think I'll be a little bit higher than consensus
on Agbuca, just because I outlined the volume that he's
seeing is off the charts, like double digit targets. And
I think that when Mike Evans, if he comes back,
that does alter what you could expect. As I outlined,
I think that maybe his efficiency can get a boost
if Mike Evans ends up playing in this game. I
do admit though Godwin has look good the last couple
of weeks, averaging over forty yards after the catch in
(12:12):
the last two games, So both guys I think can
be starting territory. I don't know if I'll get Godwin
ahead of it Buka, but I think in the wide
receiver two range, I think that's probably where I'll settle
on both guys ultimately. And then obviously you need to
shick a couple of things up. If Mike Evans ends
up suiting up on Thursday night, which we still don't
know at the time of this recording, but it seemed
like he was really trying to play last week, playing
(12:34):
off the broken collar bone, and so it'll be interesting
to see if he ends up suiting.
Speaker 1 (12:37):
Now let's go to my first prediction here. Jacoby Brissette's
hot streak is going to end in Houston, he will
finish outside the top twelve for the first time. Since
taking over as the starter, Burssette has been awesome. He
has made Michael Wilson when Marvin Harrison Junior is not
in the field awesome. He has obviously helped elevate Drey
(12:58):
McBride where he already was. He has been just a
godsend for the Cardinals and in this passing game since
stepping into the lineup for Kyler Murray. Since the bye
week in Week eight, e's QB ten, QB ten, q before,
QB eight, QB eight, QB twelve. Two weeks before that,
he was QB seven, QB twelve. So this is going
back for like most of the season at this point,
(13:19):
and I'm here to tell you that that is ending
this week. It'll be no surprise. I did a similar
prediction last week for Patrick Mahomes, who's obviously much more
established than Perseett against this Texans defense. Was very much
correct on that one, and I'm running it back this
week with Brissette, who, like I said, has been on fire.
It's not happening against the Texans. Like I don't care
(13:39):
what quarterback you are, it's not happening against this Houston defense.
They are so good. They are a defense that, like,
I really don't know. We're in the fantasy playoffs now,
so you're going up against a good team like this
is it? This is when it really matters. I don't
know if I would start a single quarterback against them
(14:01):
except Josh Allen. And I know Alan did a really
bad job against them just a couple of weeks ago,
but I think he is just so on that level that, like,
like I, you could not sit Josh Allen, right, And
obviously that's not going to matter, he's not going to
be playing them again. But I'm trying to make a
larger point that I think literally every other quarterback in
football this season, the way the quarterback's been playing this season,
there's not like a ton of the you know, the
(14:22):
guys that have really like stepped up. It's not the
strongest MVP field. It feels like all that I would
sit everybody. So Jacoby Brissett, I am not playing him
against his Texas defense. You wouldn't be starting Gino Smith
next week anyway. I'm not starting Justin Herbert against them
in Week seventeen, Like I will not be starting anybody
against his defense all season, and I don't think you
should either, And I think Brissett, Like my prediction is
(14:46):
that Brissette is not a QB one because he has
been every time he started a game this season. But
I don't think he's gonna be inside the top twenty genuinely, like, like,
this defense is insane. The prop I'm taking is under
one and a half passing touchdowns. I'm kind of as
rambling at this point. I mean, I could have kept
this about ten seconds of analysis. Houston Texas defense really
really really good. End of discussion, Like, I don't think
(15:08):
anything else really matters, beond that I think they're the
best defensive football.
Speaker 2 (15:12):
Yeah. I could not agree more with this. As I
was updating my weekly quarterback rankings for week fifteen, how
low can you rank Jakobe Brissett this week? Just because
you can't recommend starting in any capacity. If the Texans
are shutting out guys like Mahomes and Josh Allen, what
do you think they're gonna do against Jacoby Brissett, who,
again we have to admit that a lot of his
(15:33):
stats are coming in fourth quarter, second half garbage time.
And I don't know if the Texas are just gonna
kind of let that happen. I think they're like, no,
We're gonna set the clamps down on any offense that
we face because that's how we win these games. So again,
the Cardinals defense has been bad this year too, so
especially over the last couple of weeks. So even if
it's a closer game than the spread to suggest, and
(15:54):
it's not the Texans blowing out the Cardinals, I think
I talked about us on the Betting Pro Show, but
the garbage man has been taking out the trash every
single week when it comes to these Arizona Cardinals. This
might be the week that it doesn't show up to
pick up the trash when it comes to Jacoby Rssett.
So we know that garbage time runs out eventually. Back
in the Blake Bortles days, every single week it was
(16:16):
glorious fantasy QB one numbers and then you run into
a buzzsaw like the Texans defense, and those fantasy points
can go away. I think that a bigger concern for
fantasy managers. It's not really Drey McBride, because what else
are you gonna do. You can't not start him, is
Michael Wilson actually where he was ECR eight last week,
and that wasn't even high enough based on what his
(16:38):
performance actually was. He's seeing seventeen targets per game without
Marverrend Harrison in the lineup, Volumes should still be on
his side. But what kind of efficiency will he post
in a brutal matchup against the Texans where he could
draw Stingley Lassiter, two of these really strong cornbacks for
the Texans. So it'll be interesting where Wilson ends up
settling in ESR. I think there's obviously a floor with
(16:59):
him because of the amount of volume that he's seeing,
especially with all these receivers injuries on the Arizona Cardinals.
But what is his actual ceiling going to be? I mean,
could this be a game where yeah, he sees twenty targets,
but he catches like six or seven, and then that's
maybe not even that bad of a performance. So interested
to see where ECR moves him, because again, you're not
gonna see Jacobi anywhere near the top twelve, but will
(17:19):
Michael Wilson kind of follow suit. I'm kind of interested
to see.
Speaker 1 (17:23):
Is Harrison is there any chance he's playing or is
he definitely gonna miss another week. I haven't still TVD anything.
Speaker 2 (17:29):
If anything, it almost makes it easier to just bench
with Wilson outright if Harrison does play, right, I.
Speaker 1 (17:34):
Was gonna say, if Harrison plays, would not I would
not play Wilson again in this matchup. That would be
like a very straightforward thing to me. Yeah, yeah, that
would make it really But the question, would you play
Harrison if Harrison's playing? I know, I think literally, if
Burton Harrison Junior plays, I think Trey McBride is the
only player on this offense he can start. YEP, I
don't think there's anybody else. Yeah, he's really good. He's
(17:57):
QB eighteen in ECR By the way, like him versus
Justin Herbert banged up bad offensive line against Kansas City,
that's an interesting one. Him versus j McCarthy finally had
a good game. You know, he's now going up in Dallas,
which has been better prior to this Lions game. On defense,
Bryce Young, Caleb Williams against Cleveland. These are some of
(18:18):
the names that are right behind Brissett. I think you'd
make a case for I'm not saying you would definitely
move him down past all of them. But I think
you can make a case for it. Like I want
nothing to do with Brissett this.
Speaker 2 (18:27):
Week, I would say too, the Cardinals their stud tackle
Paris Johnson Junior. You got hurt last week. We saw
what this Texas defense did do a beat up offensive
line last week against the Chiefs, So just be very very.
Speaker 1 (18:41):
Careful with again he would you agree with me that, Like,
obviously they're not going to play every quarterback, but if
every quarterback was on the table as a potential opponent,
do you agree that Alan is like maybe the only
one you'd start against him? Like, I really would not
want to start anything, even the elites. I would just
like not. I think they're going to shut down everybody.
I think they are that good.
Speaker 2 (19:00):
We saw them shut down Josh All.
Speaker 1 (19:02):
I'm already this year, so I know, I know there's
a different level where it's like I can't but like,
like I don't know, I don't know that I would
really want to start Stafford or may or Hurtz or
Lamar or Burrow or Dak who have all been good,
you know at times this season for some of them,
Like I, I just don't want to do it. So
I don't know, maybe that's a little too aggressive, but
(19:23):
they're really, really good. That's the point. We've got a
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for one month. Now available on iOS and Android. Eric said,
we went pretty long on those first two. That's my
(19:44):
fault for taking ten minutes to say, Houston defense good.
Let's go to your number four prediction.
Speaker 2 (19:51):
Gonna go with Kenneth Walker RB one season against the
Indianapolis Colts. That could be trotting out Philip Rivers a
quarterback potentially probably not, but not Jeo Jones, probably Riley
Leonard or Brett Rippon if Leonard can't play because he's
dealing with a knee knee injury. Regardless, it's just a
(20:11):
really good spot for the Seahawks offense. They're going to
score points in some way or some form because they've
a massive implied team total, playing at home against a
pretty lifeless Colts team at this point just lost their quarterback.
So I like Ken Walker in this spot to be
totally honest, and last week and actually over the last
couple of games, Walker's usage has kind of been encouraging.
(20:32):
It's been hard to tell in the raw box score
because of these weird blowout game scripts that the Seahawkxy
playing in and of course like this could be another
blowout game script, but I do think that this will
play into Walker's favor here. If you look at last week,
Walker actually played sixty percent of the snaps with Sam
Darnold as the quarterback. He get your target to the
end zone. He didn't score at three red zone carries.
(20:52):
Last three weeks, the touches have been forty two to
twenty nine in favor of Ken Walker over Zax Sharpeney.
He's thirteen plus opportunities in seven straight games to Sharboney's four. Now,
Indianapolis has been able to be run on the last
couple of games because they've been missing to Forrest Buckner.
He is eligible to come off in your reserve this week,
but he's dealing with a neck injury, so still TBD
(21:13):
on whether he's going to play or not. If he
doesn't play in this game. I think that this is
a spot where the Seahawks look to get Walker really,
really going. He's been better at home this year, sixty
plus rushing yards the three of his last four games.
And to your point or to my point about the
Colts run defense being weak without Buckner, last four running
backs that have faced the Colts have at least sixty
four plus rushing yards against them. So I like Walker
(21:35):
my prop to be going over sixty and a half
rushing yards this week against the Colts at home.
Speaker 1 (21:41):
Do you like Sharboney also in this game, just given
the matchup because he is my prop. He's not my prediction,
but we'll talk about him now. Anyway, I think the Seahawks'
defense special teams is going to win playoff matchups this
week against the Colts with whoever is that quarterback, And
I'm kind of going to kind of predict that they
score over twenty fantasy points in this game. And I mean,
(22:04):
the Seahawks defense has been awesome, like I think three
of their last four games they have nineteen plus points. Anyway,
but going up against this offense without Daniel Jones, I
just think they can focus all their attention on Taylor
and dominate, And because I expect Seattle to dominate, I
have Zach Sharbonnay anytime touchdown as my prop because even
(22:25):
if Walker maybe ends up having a bigger day, like
you have him as an RB one, I think they're
gonna be up by so much that we're going to
get a lot of Sharbonay carries and I think you'll
end up getting into the end zone against what has
been a struggling run defense in what I expect to
be a blowout. So do you also like I'm not
saying do you like him better than Walker? But do
you also like Sharboney?
Speaker 2 (22:45):
I think all Seahawks are firmly in play because they're
gonna score a lot of points. So it's just a
matter of, Okay, who scores the touchdowns here? Now, usually
it's jacksonvis the jigball. He usually scores all the touchdowns.
But to your point, could be Seahawks defense, it could
be the running backs. That being said, there's too much
upside in the Seahawks offense to leave them on fantasy benches.
So Charbonay not someone that you're always looking to necessarily start,
(23:07):
but as a flex play where you could see the
upside pathroom. I agree with you. So I like all
Seahawks this week. They all have a ton of upside,
and I think that upside is ultimately wins your fantasy
matchups in the playoffs. Again, you could see no one
would be surprised if ken Walker has thirty points this week.
Wouldn't be surprised to sex Arbna has thirty points this week,
because if they are able to score multiple touchdowns, then
that's the easiest way to get there. So yes, high
(23:29):
on the Seahawks offense to score points. Even Sam Darnold, Right,
someone's kind of been inconsistent, look terrible in the first
time against the Falcons. Then the second half had plays
out and he's fine putting up monster numbers to JSN.
So yeah, fire up those Seahawks.
Speaker 1 (23:43):
What is the spread in that game? I meant to
look it up and I forgot. I'll try pull it
up now.
Speaker 2 (23:47):
I'm pretty sure it's two touchdowns, thirteen and a half.
Speaker 1 (23:50):
Yeah, I mean it should be like right, that's.
Speaker 2 (23:53):
Especially Look, I mean if it's Brett Ribbon like like
this is like Matt Issue, like we just saw this
play out right, It's it's thirteen and.
Speaker 1 (24:05):
A half on hard Rock bet. So it's just under
two touchdowns that and that doesn't it doesn't feel like
enough like I will take the Seahawks in like like
kind of easily, maybe even that this game is also
in Seattle, like it's it's it's tough.
Speaker 2 (24:23):
It's a tough spot again, like I just said, we
saw this two weeks ago with Mac Brosber going to
Seattle making his first start.
Speaker 1 (24:32):
It's like this, this total is forty two. I'm like,
I Colts are not getting ten. I don't think so.
I mean they're they're expecting the big game from the
thinks that you can start forty two with a spread
of thirteen and a half is hilarious. Actually, do you start.
Speaker 2 (24:50):
Any Colts player not named Jonathan Taylor?
Speaker 1 (24:54):
I would not know. I would not start like Pittman
or Piercer Tolm.
Speaker 2 (24:58):
Warren's getting getting the benched to get at me. Acts too.
He's tough too, because it's tight end a little bit different.
But and it's also Seahawks have been bad against tight
ends this year too.
Speaker 1 (25:06):
I would start. I would start Warren because, like you
think about a bad quarterback, like dumping off the short
passes a lot try and let him do something after
the catch. I know Warren has like been literally consistent.
He's a tight end. Of course, everybody's inconsistent at the position,
but generally has been good, right like you know, especially
early on. So I would be fine starting Warren, But
(25:27):
Warren and Taylor that's it. I'm not starting a receiver
in this game for the Colts, I would agree. Let's
go to the next prediction. I want to actually ask you,
So you're going to talk about Kyle mcnunguy here, and
I want to ask you him versus somebody like Sharbon
And now, based on the fact that you have a
very positive prediction here, which I'll let you say, I'm
guessing you're going to go Manonguy. But going up against
you know, a good Browns rush defense, they're both kind
(25:48):
of backup spots. I think it's interesting to pit the
two of them against each other. So what do you
think about that comparison? And then also why do you
like Manonguy?
Speaker 2 (25:55):
I like manung guy because he has been a staple
in the Bears rushing to that ranks number one in
the NFL in rushing success rate. He actually has the
highest success rate of the two Bears running backs this season.
He has been a star, and the Bears have talked
about how did this guy fall all the way to
the seventh round? And I think it's because he went
to Rutgers. He wasn't this flashy running back, but he
was just someone that was a bowling ball when they
(26:17):
got the ball in his hands, and he picked up
the yards that were blocked for him and he doesn't
fumble the ball. So the coaching staff is continuing to
believe on Manungai. He has twelve plus carries in four
straight games. And you look at this Browns defense. They
gave up a career high in rushing arts to Tony
Pollard last week twenty five carries for one hundred and
sixty one yards and two touchdowns. Tony Pollard was left
(26:38):
for dead in fantasy football, at least that's where I
had him. I had no consideration of using him in
any capacity whatsoever.
Speaker 1 (26:46):
I said his name on any show throughout the week.
In two months.
Speaker 2 (26:51):
On the road against the Browns, I'm expecting him to
do absolutely nothing, and he has a career day and
something to point out about this Browns run defense. This
is the first game last week without defensive tackle Maleie Collins,
and I kind of noted that some of my betting
stuff that I was looking at, I was wondering, Okay,
I wonder how much of a difference this it's going
to make from their run defense. And I mean, maybe
(27:11):
he really was that good of kind of being that
interior pass rush or interior run defender. We see this
a lot with these teams where you lose one big
guy up front, and it can drastically alter how good
your defense is against the run. See if the Patriots
with Milton Williams, he's been out the last couple of
weeks and Patriots run defense hasn't been nearly as good.
So we may be seeing something similar here in Cleveland
with their run defense being not nearly as good as
(27:34):
the season long stats would suggest. Last four games, the
Brands have actually allowed one hundred and eighty four rushing
yards in two of those last four games. They're on
the road here, playing in Chicago, and I think that
if the Bears won't to impose their will with a
physical run game, it is Kyle Manung guy all the
way that they're going to give the ball to. In December,
Chicago Bears football, But the young guy watching him live
(27:57):
in that Packers game, the dude runs so physical. You
could see him making contact with Packers defenders in the decals,
flying off of their helmets because of how hard Manungay
was hitting the hole. So I think this is a
spot where he could see double digit carry or excuse me,
up to like twenty carries in this game against a
Browns defense that they could be had on the run.
(28:18):
And honestly, does it even matter how good the Browns
defense has been, because the Bears have shown they can
run the ball on literally any team in the NFL
and at home. I think that's what they're gonna want
to do here. So I like Manonga to be a
top twenty four running back this week. I'm going to
take the over on his rushing yards prop, which I
believe opened around fifty seven and a half rushing yards.
I'm taking the over.
Speaker 1 (28:37):
Brown's defense is better at home, so the fact that
this game is in Chicago helps the case. I'm a
little confused by his ranking. He's RB twenty nine in ECR,
Like I don't he should be higher than that in
my opinion, Like I look at some of these other
names around him like Chris Rodriguez Aaron Jones. I mean,
he's a few spots behind DeAndre Swift. I mean obviously,
(29:00):
I think they're both intriguing starts. Devin Neil like a
Marion Hampton. What is his usage really going to look like?
If Idel's not going anywhere and going up in Kansas City, Like,
there's there's some interesting names that I think you could
talk yourself into getting Mononga ahead of I do love that,
Like last year you and I were all in on estimate,
we were the estimates and we were just wrong. But
now we were the Manong guys and we were right,
(29:21):
like we got we got one back, and I like
I was all over him, and I have really enjoyed
watching him outshine his draft capital this year, So I
like really agree with this one. I do think him
versus Jarbonday is interesting because I'm I'm pretty confident Sharbony
is gonna get some touchdown scoring opportunities Manong guy, like
I think he will, but I don't know for sure.
(29:42):
I'm more confident that Sharbonay will, which at the end
of the day, sometimes it's all that matters. But I
like them both even though they're both backups here this
and Mananguay. Even with the tough matchup, Let's go to
another prediction here, Lions rams is from me, Lion's m
is actually going to be a fantasy disappointment generally speaking.
(30:04):
I didn't want to pick one player because you never know,
like if somebody gets a touchdown late or whatever. But
I just think general this is this is very much
a spiritual prediction, right, we will know it when we
see it if it was a fantasy disappointment or not.
And I think generally speaking, this will be a disappointment
because expectations are just so crazy. Hi, this is a
total of fifty Actually it was fifty five. Oh my gosh,
(30:24):
I have it up here. It was fifty five when
I put the sheet together yesterday. It's already up to
fifty six on hard rock bet. That has to be
the highest we have seen this year. I cannot remember
seeing a higher one, honestly, Like, I'm sure it has happened.
I'm not saying this is a record setting total, but
I cannot recall specifically the last time I saw a
total over fifty five. Up to fifty six on hard
(30:45):
rock bet is really remarkable. So I'm going to take
the under on fifty six points scored is by prop
because I think it'll generally be disappointing these two teams combined,
for I believe eighty nine points last week, which you
might say, okay, and then you're crazy to take the
under in the fifties. I think like there's room for
regression there, right, like even if both offenses are good,
(31:06):
like maybe they have to settle for one or two
more field goals rather than touchdowns. The other thing, too,
is the Rams defense. I got everybody talks about McVeagh
and stat Rams defense is awesome. It would not surprise
me going up against this Detroit offensive line if they
gave the Lions real, actual problems. Now I'm not saying, hey,
it's a fantasy playoffs, go sit Jamior Gibbs or a'm
(31:27):
and Ross Saint Brown or anything like that, but I
would like maybe dial down your expectations because I think
this Rams defense is really it's not the Texans defense,
but it's really really good. This game's in LA so
it's still in a dome, but it's not in course field,
and I think there's a little room for just some
small regression, Like you're not going to score forty points
(31:49):
every week. These teams both did it last week. I
think they could fall back to earth a little bit.
The Lions defense is so bagged up that I'm a
little nervous that Stafford could just throw for like a
thousand yards and you know, get them really closer to
the over on his own. But I think generally speaking,
this will be a disappointment.
Speaker 2 (32:05):
Rickson my lean with what you're saying, seems like you
want to take the Lions team total under, right, because
he seems like you're really pro rams here but less
confident in the lines. And that's kind of how I
view the same. The Seme matchup, I like.
Speaker 1 (32:20):
Taking the overall under because fifty six is such a
high number. But if you were like, no, you had
to pick a team total, it would be Lions under.
That would be what I would go correct.
Speaker 2 (32:31):
I would be interested to see something I have to
probably look at when I'm doing the betting write ups
for this particular game is the recent matchups with Jared
Goff again Sean McVay and how well they played.
Speaker 1 (32:42):
Early last season. Right, it was like it was like
a twenty six to twenty one game or something early
last year.
Speaker 2 (32:47):
Which clearly is not fifties as well under.
Speaker 1 (32:50):
So now Stafford's playing better this year than he did
at that stage last year, and you know, gives is awesome,
and like these are two good offenses. I'm not saying
they're bad. I just fifty six is a remarkable number.
Speaker 2 (33:03):
Yeah, it's actually to your point, the highest total was
actually the Cowboys Lion's game last week, which was fifty five.
Speaker 1 (33:11):
Yeah. I think that the like the path to me
winning this prediction is like maybe if if only two
players have good Fantasy days and the rest are bad,
that's a disappoint Like if you get to three, maybe
that's too much. I don't know. Maybe maybe we can
just kind of play it by like it might be
kind of hard to define it like ahead of time.
(33:31):
Like I said, I think we'll kind of know when
we see it if this was like, hey, we got
the fun scoring game we expected or no, this expectations
are high, so it you know, to.
Speaker 2 (33:42):
Your point, you're also just playing the numbers game right
where this game could be thirty twenty four and you win.
It's also still shootout.
Speaker 1 (33:49):
Probably should auto take the under on any line that
is ever over, like fifty three, like that like, you
should probably do that and you get up to fifty six.
I mean, it's just, well, it's similar.
Speaker 2 (34:02):
It's similar to the process of betting me over in
the Browns Titans game when it was a thirty one and.
Speaker 1 (34:06):
A half points. Yeah, well, it's just it's so low.
Speaker 2 (34:10):
It doesn't matter what the optics of the actual matchup are.
It's just okay, well, yeah, anything can happen any given.
Speaker 1 (34:16):
Funny but funnily enough, I'm usually on the other side
of this, like I'm the guy who lastly said we
are getting the big Bills Bengals game, like, even though
it's a really high total. Like I usually the guy
who says, I know it's high, but I want to
bet it anyway. This one is like, hey, it's so high,
and b I see reasons for why it might be
a disappointing game. I think these teams could move the
ball and just end up settling for a lot of
(34:37):
field goals like like, and then that gets us to
where we're trying to go. It's like, Okay, if Jake
Bates is a big game, we're not counting that's that's
still a fancy disappointment.
Speaker 2 (34:46):
So now you got Jake Bates's kicker on your team.
Speaker 1 (34:50):
Yeah uh. If you want a chance to win, b
John Robinson and Drake London signed Minnie helmet for free
courtesy of our friends at pristineauxtion dot com. All I
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(35:11):
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If you're watching on YouTube, be sure to subscribe and
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new episodes are up and to claim your prize. Ericson
our number two predictions each have to do with Ravens Bengals.
I'll let you go first.
Speaker 2 (35:26):
Mike caseco mode. He's gonna finish as a tight end
one against the Baltimore Ravens. Now. This comes with the
caveat that t Higgins sits for this matchup. We know
that t Higgins has re entered the concussion protocol he
missed two weeks ago. He played last week, but he
took a couple of hits to the head and he's
re entered the concussion protocol after reporting symptoms of a concussion.
(35:47):
And we've seen the splits with Mike Kaseki with t
Higgins out of the lineup. Now, it didn't come to
fruition against the Ravens a couple weeks ago on Thanksgiving,
but all of last year we saw Mike Kiseki just
absolutely smash in the games that te Higgins missed, And
it kind of makes sense when you think about it. Stylistically,
Gaseki really operates as a big bodied slot wide receiver.
He doesn't play traditional tight end, and they like to
(36:09):
use him a lot in the red zone. And even
last week I was really low on Gaseeki against the
Buffalo Bills, just given how good they've been against tight ends.
But he was perfect six for eighty six and one
thirty eight percent target rate Berrett one. He's making one
handed catches in the snow like. It was a really
fun game for Gaseki, and I think that he can
have a big game again against the Baltimore Ravens two
(36:31):
weeks in a row. Disappointing in the first matchup against
the Ravens, like I mentioned, just two for ninety on
four targets, but he did have some red zone targets.
He had an end zone target in that game. And
it was also Joe Burrows's first game back. So I
think that with the performance from last week, they can
build on that, and I think volume should be there
for Gaseki as the slot receiver for the Bengals if
t Higgins ultimately sits. So I'm gonna go with Kaseki
(36:52):
finishing as a fantasy tight end one, and he's gonna
go over his receiving arts prop which I found around
thirty five and a half receiving yards. I don't really know.
Speaker 1 (37:00):
To do with picking players against this Ravens defense right now,
because because they genuinely are it's not just playing worse teams.
They are a better defense than they were in the
first month of the season, Like I think on e quickly,
like partly from getting healthier, partly from moving Kyle Hamilton
on a round, partly from just like playing better in general.
But I still don't think they're actually that good. Like
(37:21):
they're they're very frustrating defense to watch as a fan
of the team. Burrow obviously has has had no rust
coming back from this injury and has looked very good,
including you know, against this Ravens defense. You know, the
Bengals obviously they got a lot of turnovers, but like
they won that game going away. So I think this
(37:42):
is like a pretty reasonable one. I do think, and
I'll loop this into my prediction that this is like
like last year we got too Ravens Bengals games that
were instant classics, like thirty eight, thirty five, forty one
to thirty eight, like crazy games back and forth, high
scoring both the offenses. I kind of think we get that.
We did not get that on Thanksgiving. I think we
(38:02):
could have maybe gotten close to that if not for
like a ridiculous amount of turnovers and in those fumbles
by the Ravens offense. I think we could kind of
maybe get there this week. So my prediction is that
we get the real Lamar Jackson, like truly returning to
form QB one performance in the rematch with Cincinnati. And
you pointed out when I put this in the sheet
(38:23):
that it's kind of calling you out a little that
like technically you got the prediction right last week, you know,
with you saying that Lamar kind of bounces back. But
you know, as I call it, maybe a bit of
a spiritual loss there. He didn't look that amazing.
Speaker 2 (38:38):
I was right on my prop because he did throw
over one and a half passing touchdowns, except the rest decided, no,
that's not a touchdown, so we're gonna take it off
the board.
Speaker 1 (38:47):
Yeah, you try telling that to the book and see
if they honor that. Bet. I. You know, it's funny,
like we we have like just barely missed out on
like three or four extra passing touchdowns from Lamar across
the last two weeks.
Speaker 2 (39:03):
Man likely five touchdowns.
Speaker 1 (39:06):
Yeah, Zay could have had one, you know, maybe one
of those devontees Walker, you know, deep ball on the
could have been one. Like there, we we have missed
out on on like some bigger performances by Lamar. I
think this is the one. I think this is the
one where it's like he he reminds everybody that like,
oh no, this is like one of the elite guys.
Like actually, all the way back, he always struggles against
(39:28):
the Steelers, which is why I was a little hesitant
last week even if he starts to look better. But
I think I thought that was the best he looked
outside of that that interception, which was terrible by him.
I think this was the best Lamar has looked in
a month and a half. And now he gets the
Bengals defense like Trey Hendrickson. Trey Hendrickson is now out
for the season because he had a surgery today. Like
(39:48):
I think, I think this is like the Lamar Jacks.
He's also historically done very well against this defense. Like
this is the Lamar Jackson game. I have a prop
up two hundred and fifty combined yards rushing and you know, passing,
and three combined touchdowns rushing and passing. I think this
is like a top five quarterback on the week game
(40:08):
where it's like the real Lamar Jackson, his back Ericson.
We could spend an hour talking about some of those
calls in the Steelers game that obviously that Isaiah likely won,
was brutal. It's the problem for me with that wasn't
that they said it was not a catch. It's that
that wasn't a catch. But the tipped pass that Rogers
(40:30):
caught that they said wasn't an interception and he got
his knee down was a catch. I'm like, like, likely
he did so much more in the process of catching
the ball than Rogers, who had like one hand on
the ball as he was going to the ground and
everybody was like, well his knees on the ground and
ty Go's the Obviously, I'm like, what tie? He never
had the ball, Like, in no world did he ever
(40:51):
possess the ball, And it's not the ball hit the
ground and you know the Ravens player recovered a fumble.
He just came down with the ball like I was.
This is the I could not believe that call when
combined with the likely call, Like if you want to
say neither of them were catches, I would disagree, but
I can live with that. If you want to say
they were both catches, I can disagree, but I can
(41:11):
live with that. To say Rogers actually caught the ball
and you know, you know, whatever football move whatever the
rule is for the catch up, which I don't understand
and likely didn't like, I do not understand how you
can square those two together at Drovin Nuts. Also this,
the refs did admit that the Travis Jones penalty that
gave this just handed the Steelers four points was incorrect
(41:36):
by the way the Raveies could have kicked a field
goal to win the game if there were four points
fewer by the Steelers. So I'm just throwing it out there.
That was the most I can't stand ericson complaining about
the officiating because I think it's usually in competence, not maliciousness,
and it just comes across so lame. But I could
(41:57):
not help my I was going, I was going full
Mayor when the Eagles play the Cowboys conspiracy theory on Twitter.
I was so irate about it because it was it
was it was like actually meaningful calls, right. It wasn't like, oh,
a random pass interference here or there. It was like
like multiple game changing calls that in a close game
that had the biggest implications for the postseason percentages of
(42:20):
any game in the NFL this season. So I'm not
over it yet. Clearly, all right, I won't waste anybody
else's time with my ranting there. Today's show is brought
to you by our new percenting sponsor, hard Rock bet.
So it's time for hard rock Best Bets of the Week,
presented by hard rock bet. Ericson what is your hard
rock best bet of the.
Speaker 2 (42:38):
Week, Travis Etn is going to finish as a top
eight fantasy running back against the New York Jets. The
Jets defense has been absolutely terrible against running backs since
they got ready Quentin Williams. The last four running backs
to face the Jets their fantasy finishes RB eight, RB one,
RB four, RB three. Nine running backs in the last
(42:58):
seven games have hit at least six two rushing yards
against the New York Jets, and seven have gone over
sixty five or more rushing yards. So that's the proble
I'm taking with Etn. He's gonna go over sixty four
and a half rushing yards. And Etn man, the guy
has just been on absolute tear. He's been inside the
top ten running back six of his last seven games played,
including top seven in three of his last four games.
(43:19):
And although the Jaguars have kind of teased this a
little bit, and myself because I'm a big bay Shall
Tuotont fan, about we're gonna use the tugboat, We're gonna
use him at the goal line. He fumbled twice last week.
That's just a really bad red flag for a young
player that I don't think they're gonna necessarily go right
back to him. I think that they're going to continue
to ride Travis Etn because of POW productivity has been
(43:41):
especially last week, seventy four yards of the ground, two touchdowns,
twenty carries, playing nearly seventy two percent of the snaps.
That was almost one of his season highs after playing
one of his season lows against the Tennessee Titans the
week before. So I just think it's wheels up for
Travis Etn and he's gonna smash this week against New
York Jets.
Speaker 1 (44:01):
You'll get no argument for me. I think this is
a great call. I like that you would little aggressive
with like a top eight finish here for him rather
than just RB one because he is ranked inside the
RB one range already. I agree. I think it's a
really strong call. I have nothing to argue against. It's
a good best bet. By the way, just very quickly,
Philip Rivers is signing to the Colts practice squad that
was just announced by Adam Schefter three minutes ago.
Speaker 2 (44:23):
And he's if I guess he's probably gonna be the
Week sixteen starter.
Speaker 1 (44:27):
Does this reset his Hall of Fame clock? Because he
was like, it's been five years since he played.
Speaker 2 (44:34):
Does he actually have to play in a game? How
does that work exactly.
Speaker 1 (44:37):
I'm guessing he has to play in a game for it. Well, actually,
actually I don't know. Honestly, I'm unfamiliar with those rules
because it just doesn't happen very often. Yeah, wild stuff.
My hard rock best bet of the week is also
about a running back. It's Trayvon Henderson. He is going
to be finally kind of the prince who was promised
here RB one against the Bills. He has only been
(44:59):
inside the top twelve twice this season. Like, even as
we kind of like the perception of Travon is that, like,
oh yeah, the last month, like you know, five weeks
or so, he's finally kind of back, and you know,
not back, but like he's finally kind of had to
break out and getting the usage, and he's been the
running back we wanted. He was RB four and week ten,
RB three and week eleven. Besides that, he has not
been higher than RB twenty even in this stretch, let
(45:21):
alone is his poor stretch earlier in the season. So
I think finishing inside the top twelve is a good
prediction here, even though he's ranked at RB thirteen and
you know, Bill's run defense is not good. The Patriots
are coming off the buy. This is like the biggest
game on their schedule. The rest of the season is
this game. They are going to be ready. I'm hoping
the fact that it's a big game doesn't mean Rabel
like falls back on other running backs because he seemingly
(45:43):
hates Henderson. But I think they're gonna want to use
their best weapon against the Bills here again, they're bad
against running backs. I think he's gonna get an explosive
long play. I think he's gonna score touchdowns. I'm betting
on a one hundred plus scrimmage yards and a touchdown
for Trayvon Henderson this week. I think it's good that
they're ranked near each other because I like them both.
(46:04):
ETM probably should be ranked higher. He's two spots higher,
but I think they're like I'm viewing them similarly this
week in terms of my excitement for starting them. So
those were hard Rock Best Bets of the Week. If
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Speaker 3 (47:00):
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Speaker 1 (47:28):
Eric'son any final thoughts before we get out of here.
Speaker 2 (47:31):
So you think Bill's Patriots is more important than Patriots
Ravens Becka just got flex into primetime. Can't believe you're
go there.
Speaker 1 (47:37):
It's not important more important to me. I'd think it's
more important to that Patriots who are trying to win
this division here. That is, I'm glad the game got
moved to primetime. Actually, I think that's going to be
an awesome game, even though the records wouldn't suggest that.
If the Ravens really are coming off this big blow
up offense looks back against the Bengals, I think people
(47:58):
are going to be really excited for that game. So
I am excited for it to be Sunday.
Speaker 2 (48:01):
Do we need to do a warm and ericson watch
party of Pats, Ravens watch Probaby.
Speaker 1 (48:04):
We'll do an emergency pod afterwards, like just all of it. There,
I get I'm out numbered at this company though. There's
more Patriots fans on the content team than there are
Ravens fans, So I'm like John Snow just like holding
you guys off in the Battle of the Bastards. Yeah,
that's fun. Good luck to everybody here this week, I mean,
especially just in the fantasy playoffs in general. But hopefully
(48:26):
our predictions can help out with setting your lineups and
making maybe some prop bets if you want. Each week
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on the Betting Pros YouTube channel. Both of them go
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Subscribe to our YouTube channels and click the bell to
be notified of all of our weekly live streams. For ericson,
(48:48):
I'm Ryan Warley. Thanks for tuning in. We'll see you
next time. Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy
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(49:09):
dot com slash fantasy Pros.