Top 10 Fantasy Football Predictions & Prop Bets for Week 18 (Ep. 1921)

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Hello everybody, Welcome into the Fantasy Pros Football Podcast. I'm
Ryan Warmley, joined on this Tuesday morning by Andrew Ericson Erickson.

Speaker 2 (00:08):
We are past the Fantasy Championship. We did it, we
made it. The season is done.

Speaker 1 (00:14):
We now enter into the long abyss of the fantasy
football offseason. Of course, we still have football going on
for the next several weeks, so you and I are
not going anywhere in terms of this predictions show. But
of course the fantasy side of things is going to
look a lot different until what is it eight eight
months from now, nine months from now, however long it
is till next year aft season? How are you feeling

(00:35):
the day after Fantasy championships were decided? Was it a
successful Week seventeen for you or not?

Speaker 3 (00:41):
It was not a successful Week seventeen for me. I
had the privileges of the right word, made the mistake
of starting Tetrao McMullen over Luther Burden, which ended up
costing me a chance at a championship. Went back and
forth trying to figure out, you know, he was sick.
Down with the sickness, A bunch of players came up

(01:01):
on the injury report on Week seventeen with illness, so
second guessing myself in the process buying going my TEAMAG
and Luther Burden's thought about it more. I should have
been opened more to Burden as an option there. But hey,
you can't get every call right. And I know that
a lot of people also dealt with that because I
posted that on social media and just like, hey, let
me know what cost you your Fantasy championship and a

(01:23):
lot of people you know, one way or another, one
v one, you know, torn between two players if they'd
gone the other way, would have had different results. But hey,
this is the game that we play. That's why we
love it so much because it feels so good when
you win. It feels devastating when you lose, especially when
you had the chance to win. Like in your grip,
it's like I rather would have got blown out by

(01:44):
the other team.

Speaker 4 (01:44):
It was like there was no shot I would have
been able to win.

Speaker 1 (01:47):
So that's a nice you had blown out, but you'd
rather like you had a bunch of straightforward decisions and
like you never considered the guy that Like, I had
two championships and in one of them, I really agonized
over starting Christian Watson or you know, Michael Pittman Lat McConkie.
I had a few different options to fill two spots,
and I made the wrong decision sitting Christian Watson. So

(02:09):
I so on Saturday night, I see him have one
hundred yards in a touchdown, and I'm going to Sunday
like just kicking myself. And then I am going up
against Drake May in that league. So early Sunday I
was like, oh my god, like I made the wrong
decision and I'm facing May.

Speaker 2 (02:23):
This is over.

Speaker 1 (02:24):
But I did end up actually coming back to win
that league. So but but if I hadn't, I was
gonna be really angry the other league. I had no
clear decisions. I was a winner lose, or to me,
I had only clear decisions. So I was a winner lose.
Like I can live with this because I never considered
starting anybody on my bench. I didn't make any you know,
quote unquote wrong decisions. So uh, you know, if I

(02:46):
just get beat then hey, I just got beaten, and
sometimes it happens. That was a lot more relaxing in
that league, knowing that I wasn't going to be just
kicking myself for months. If what my final tough decision
of the year is ended up?

Speaker 2 (02:59):
What cost to me?

Speaker 3 (03:01):
Yeah, I was definitely gutted the most by a discord user.
I think it was fuzzy in my discord asked me
about Trevon Henderson versus Derrick Henry, and I tell you
not make the right call there. So watching Derrick Henry
just go off on Saturday, I literally wanted.

Speaker 4 (03:16):
To throw up.

Speaker 3 (03:17):
I felt so sorry for the person that I gave
them the wrong advice. And then, yeah, it sucks to
lose and it's not fun, especially when you make the
wrong decision. But hey, hoping to be better, improve the
process in the off season again, already looking at twenty
twenty six ranks, Ready to go three or sixty five
days till you win your fantasy league if you didn't

(03:37):
win this year. So looking up, ready to close the
book on twenty twenty five, but looking forward to Still
looking at week eighteen the regular season playoffs for the NFL,
because I think that they're still takeaways for fantasy. Again,
this stuff still counts, right, even though it doesn't count
in the total. Oh what do they do in twenty
twenty five in the fantasy season? We can still use

(03:59):
guys that break out. You know, we still have some
rookie and young players that could tintentially take another leap
in the playoffs for the real NFL teams, and that
I think is worth considering when we're drafting these guys
twenty six.

Speaker 1 (04:11):
By the way, we don't usually well, we usually dive
deeper into Monday night football. We're going to do less
of that today just because there's not you know, we
don't have this fantasy impact at least relevant to twenty.

Speaker 2 (04:22):
Five season stuff.

Speaker 1 (04:23):
You know, Week eighteen is typically not relevant to most people.
But I just had one to shout out Bijon, who
like just came through for every fantasy manager in an
insane way, you know, in that Monday night game. And
just like that game alone very well, like might have
just made him worth the number one pick from you know,

(04:44):
if you took him there this year, it might have
solidified him as the number one pick next year.

Speaker 2 (04:49):
I mean, I'm curious what you think about that.

Speaker 1 (04:51):
But just what a Monday Night performance too, Like he
won me one of my leagues, you know, and I
needed a miracle from him, and that you know, forty
point outburst was a miracle. One hundred and ninety five
rushing yards and a touchdown, showing off the explosiveness on
the ninety three yard touchdown, something that you know, people
wanted to see going into this year more of. And
then also just throwing in five yard five catches for

(05:12):
thirty four yards.

Speaker 2 (05:13):
In a touchdown.

Speaker 1 (05:14):
So Jasabijon just being the fantasy legend that he is
and winning not just me, but I'm sure many people
their leagues in that Monday night game.

Speaker 3 (05:23):
Yeah, Bijon capped off the year as the RB three overall,
right behind JT and Mcaffrey's actually interesting in standard Jonathan
Taylor actually finished as the RB one in.

Speaker 2 (05:35):
Standard formats, Wow.

Speaker 3 (05:37):
Just because of how I mean McCaffrey just did so much.
I mean, he still has a chance to catch. I mean,
he still has a chance to go for one thousand
receiving yards.

Speaker 4 (05:45):
Like he's still technically live for that if he has
a big game in Week eighteen.

Speaker 3 (05:49):
So yeah, the top three JT, McCaffrey. I mean that
just goes to show how much of a lead JT
scored to start the year. Like he looked like the ultimate,
Like you need JT to in your league. And of
course we know what happened with the Colts. Things obviously
fell off with the quarterback injuries, but he just had
such a lead on how many points he be scoring
to start the year that you know, he was still

(06:10):
a top three running back despite you know, a lackluster finish.

Speaker 1 (06:13):
I will pick Bejean ahead of those two next year
in drafts. I'll tell you that right now.

Speaker 3 (06:17):
McCaffrey is the Circle do not draft because he's coming
off a billion touches, Like like, this is the exact
reason why we faded Sakeuile this year and then CMC
the year before that.

Speaker 4 (06:30):
Yeah, like, as Gray ascaffrey was this year, give you
the credit to him.

Speaker 3 (06:32):
Guys, stay healthy. He's probably gonna win come back Player
of the Year number one of my do not draft
lists in twenty twenty six. I can tell you that
right now because I don't know exactly how many touches
he had, but it it's gonna be like over five
hundred by the.

Speaker 4 (06:45):
Time that the playoffs wrapped. Yeah, like that's no fakes.

Speaker 2 (06:50):
All right, Let's get into our Week eighteen predictions show.

Speaker 3 (06:52):
Here.

Speaker 1 (06:53):
We don't have a record to review from Week seventeen
because we took the holiday week off so you know,
obviously we will continue to do that again the rest
of the season and the playoffs. In terms of checking
out on how we did the week before, I can
tell you our overall records not great. We started off
very strong the first week of this show and then
have not been very strong the following two weeks. You

(07:14):
were better than me last week, though you are six
and nine on the season. I am four and eleven,
so I went zero to five in week sixteen. You
know which drag dragged that overall record down the last
week we did this, so I took the break to recuperate,
lick my wounds, and I'm going to come back stronger
here with my five predictions today, let's start off with

(07:36):
your number five prediction here.

Speaker 2 (07:39):
What do you got for us?

Speaker 3 (07:40):
Yeah, so I'm looking at my New England Patriots hosting
the Miami Dolphins with the chance for the number one
seed and AFC on the line. The Patriots win and
the Broncos lose to the Chargers, although the Charger are
gonna be starting Trey Lance, so I don't like my
chance with my Patriots getting that number one seed for
that reason, But regardless, I still think they have some
thing to play for here, because it's contract incentive sison

(08:03):
worm week eighteen. This is what it's all about, getting
these guys paid. So two guys I'm looking at and
circling here, Stefan Diggs and Hunter Henry for the New
England Patriots. So Hunter Henry has contract incentives at sixty
receptions and sixty five receptions. He's currently at fifty five receptions,
so I think he's going to go for at least
five catches in this game, get him a nice payday

(08:23):
from Drake May. I believe the Patriots did this last
year with Austin Hooper where he had like three or
four he was away. Now that we're playing for a
lot less back in Week eighteen of that particular matchup.
But still the players are aware of this, like the
quarterback knows like, hey, my guy wants to get paid here.
So I think Hunter Henry's going to go over his
reception prop which is probably going to open around three
and a half. I think that you can tease it

(08:44):
up to four and a half because I think that
they're ultimately going to get hey, oh, Henry needs one
more catch, Like let's just get them, Let's just throw
the ball behind the line of scrimmage and he'll catch it,
and he'll catch in his his contract incentive. So Hunter
Henry's gonna go for five catches over four and a half.
And then Stefan Diggs now his receiving yard line and
he's not going to be thirty yards, but he is
currently thirty yards away from one thousand yards, which he

(09:05):
hasn't had since his Day's Buffalo because he got hurt
last year with the Houston Texans. So he hits a
thousand yards, that's an extra five hundred thousand dollars in
Stefon Digg's wallet. We know Digs likes his money, and
if he actually catches eight passes, that's another five hundred k.
So chandas are Steffan Diggs can not only be on
a bye week next week if Patriots win, Chargers loose,
he could also be a million dollars richer with eight

(09:26):
catches for thirty yards. So not projecting that exact stat line,
eight catch is a lot. Dig's only done that, I
think like one or two times this season, but thirty yards,
I would like to say he's hit it every single week.
That hasn't really been the case for him because the
usage has been up and down, but with no mac Hollins,
Kisehan Boody s So coming back from the concussion, I
think you can get to at least thirty yards. So

(09:46):
I'm seeing if you parlay these together, he could probably
get some pretty decent odds at the plus one hundred
plus two hundred. But yeah, those are my two prop
bets this week for the Patriots. Prop party is what
I'm calling it. And we look at the Dolphins specific
with the matchup with Henry second most catch slob tight
ends the season six point five, so I think Henry
Dig's gonna be involved and get their money.

Speaker 1 (10:09):
I am gonna talk more about this game later on
in the show, so I will say that I do
just want to kind of follow up with you on
the props in general, and by that I specifically mean
the contract incentive stuff. You lean very heavily into that
in your you know, predictions for the week. I know
it's something you have talked about embedding in Week eighteen

(10:30):
in the past. I know debro is all over this
as well. How much does that influence what you're doing,
like as opposed to, Hey, I'm just looking at the
normal matchups and is this the defense that runs single
high and you know, how is this player playing well?
And all that, Like what percentage of that pie chart is? Like, hey,
I'm just putting a lot of stock into the contract incentives.

Speaker 3 (10:53):
I think it's just another variable to layer into your
analysis right where we're talking about, Okay, what's this player's
usage and you know what is the matchup for him?
So when the planets kind of align with okay, not
only is it a good matchup for Hunter Henry, like
that is true because of how bad the Dolphins have
been to get defending tight ends this season, there's also
a nitra incentive for well, is he gonna get volume? Well,

(11:15):
the contract incentive would suggest yes, yeah, Like the pages
will have a reason to get Hunter Henry the ball,
not only because MATC Collins is out, but because he's
incentivized to get the football. And I'm sure that he's
gonna tell Drake may Hey, by the way, because they
were talking about the broadcast last week to is Stefon
Diggs when he hit one of his contract incentives last week.

Speaker 4 (11:32):
So I just think it kind of aligns.

Speaker 3 (11:34):
Where again, not every prediction I have I think is
related to a contract incentive, but again just another kind
of variable like I said earlier, that gives you more
reason to believe that this player will perform at a
certain level. And I don't imagine that the books will
move Hunter Henry's prop to over two four and a
half receptions, like I said, because it's usually been around
three and a half and they don't necessarily put as

(11:56):
much stock into these, just depending on how much action
they get on certain player, process can move and it's
like plus money at over four and a half. But
I would I would presume that's going to be round
three and a half like it usually is every week,
and then I just feel like his odds at least
getting least four catches are really really high.

Speaker 1 (12:12):
Let's go to my first prediction here by prediction number
five going five to one Chiefs and Raiders. They have
the lowest total of the week, and I am saying
that they still go under. I want to see what
it is. When I put this together, it was I
believe thirty six. Let me just double checks see if
that's updated. Yeah, it is thirty six even is what

(12:33):
it is right now?

Speaker 2 (12:34):
Yeah? I think they're going under. I just haven't seen it.

Speaker 1 (12:37):
I expected the Chiefs offense, and this is one of
my predictions from two weeks ago, to still be somewhat
okay without Mahomes. I you know, that was partially thinking
that Gardner Minshew was going to have at least a
good game that clearly changed things.

Speaker 2 (12:52):
That's just been really incorrect.

Speaker 1 (12:54):
Again keeping in mind they've got to their third string quarterback,
not just their backup.

Speaker 2 (12:59):
It's been really really bad.

Speaker 1 (13:00):
And the Raiders of course are just an absolute like
disaster of an offense. A and like, neither team has
an incentive to try to win this game. I know
it's like a you know, division rivals what like, there
is no incentive for either team to pull out any stops.

Speaker 2 (13:16):
There's no incentive for either team to play hard.

Speaker 1 (13:19):
And I know that you might think that in terms
of the defense not playing hard, and so maybe it
leans towards the over.

Speaker 2 (13:25):
I just don't think these offenses are good enough.

Speaker 1 (13:27):
Like I just think this is a let's get everybody
as healthy as possible to the offseason and just like
thinking about next year, like there is no there's no
extra motivation to really try and do anything in this game.
So I think that this is going to be an
ugly game. I think on red Zone we're like never
turning over to this game, Like, I think it's just

(13:48):
gonna be really really poor performance. And having said all that,
my prop is a touchdown being scored though, because I
don't think both teams are going scoreless, and it's Travis Kelcey.
Because the one player that I would you know, be
buy into for this week is Hey, this like could
very well be his final game of his career. Let's,
you know, try and send him out on a high

(14:08):
note with a touchdown with a with a decent game.

Speaker 2 (14:11):
So Kelsey props.

Speaker 1 (14:13):
I like the over, I like anytime touchdown quite a bit,
but this game as a whole I think is going
under ericson.

Speaker 3 (14:20):
So what you're really hoping is the Chiefs win seven
to nothing with a Travis Kelcey touchdown, because that's.

Speaker 2 (14:24):
What I'm really thinking that could happen.

Speaker 3 (14:27):
Well, yeah, because that's how this prop hits, because you're
gonna have it to have to pan the red zone
is Travis kelce with a touchdown and that's it for
Raiders Chiefs.

Speaker 4 (14:35):
Nothing else happened in this game.

Speaker 3 (14:36):
Yes, So yeah, I mean, at least from the I
know the Raiders aren't going to score points. I know
that for sure. Maybe under on their team totals another
way to play that. I'm sure their team total is
probably like twelve points or thirteen points. Because it doesn't
look like Geno Smith is going to play in this game.
Pete Carroll's talking up Kenny Pickett and Aidan O'Connell as
potentially inactionery. We know the Raiders are in the driver's
seed to get the number one overall pick. So although

(14:58):
the Chiefs don't have anything else to play for, I
think that they would probably just feel better about themselves
if they just win a game, you know, before the
end of the season, especially with Travis Kelcey, like you said,
playing in his last game.

Speaker 4 (15:07):
So I don't mind Chiefs on the money line either.

Speaker 3 (15:09):
Get it's juicy, but I just don't find a path
where if the Raiders are winning this game in the
fourth quarter, they're gonna find a way to Like, okay,
like someone's got to make a play for us to
lose here, she's somebody fumbled.

Speaker 4 (15:22):
The ball, somebody do something stupid, and let's make sure
we lose.

Speaker 1 (15:26):
The Chiefs have not scored more than thirteen points in
a game since November twenty seventh, that's over a month ago. Like, like,
even if the Chiefs win this game, I just I
don't see anyway this hits the over like barring somebody,
that really shocks me, Like, if this plays out even
remotely close to how I expect, I don't think that
over that total is even getting sniffed. Honestly, because if

(15:46):
the Chiefs, let's say they have okay, a little bit
better game, they get up to seventeen points, right, that'd
be their best game in a month. Like, you still
are gonna tell me that the Raiders are gonna outscore
that to get them up to thirty six.

Speaker 2 (15:57):
I just don't see it. So the under on this
is simply I.

Speaker 3 (16:01):
Do know that Kareem Hunt has some juicy yards from
scrimmage incentives in his contract, so cheap the side, Yo,
we gotta get Koreea. I mean, Ifareeam Monks gets the
ball thirty times, theuder is definitely gonna hit in this game.

Speaker 4 (16:14):
Yeah, for sure.

Speaker 1 (16:15):
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Speaker 2 (16:23):
That's the number one not spelled out.

Speaker 1 (16:25):
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Now available on iOS and Android. All right, what's your
number four prediction?

Speaker 3 (16:36):
Here?

Speaker 2 (16:36):
Ericson.

Speaker 3 (16:37):
So my number four prediction is the Bengals are going
to beat the Browns at home by at least a
touchdown seven points, so they're going to cover the spread,
which at this time I believe on hard Rock Bet
it's around minus seven.

Speaker 4 (16:49):
The Bengals are favorites.

Speaker 3 (16:50):
The Bengals have basically crushed the last two teams they've
played as heavy favorites. Beat Miami forty five to twenty
one last week, and then they beat Arizona exuse me,
two weeks ago. Arizona the thirty seven to fourteen week seventeen.
So I think they kind of handle their business here.
The Cleveland Browns might be down their best offensive player
in Harold Fannon. He may not play in this game
after re injuring his groin last week. It's a rookie

(17:11):
quarterback making another start on the road. Traditioning, this is
a spot where you want to bet against that type
of player, and the Browns have just been atrocious on
the road. Fourteen of the last fifteen road games they
have lost. They are one and six against the spread
on the road this season. The only cover they had
was against the aforementioned Las Vegas Raiders, who are in
the driver's seat for the number one overall pick. So

(17:33):
this is a team that you definitely want to fade
on the road at all costs. So in a divisional game,
I think the Cincinnati Bengals want to end on a
high note. Zach Taylor wants to put as many wins
on his resume as humanly possible. You have to take
every Joe Burrow game very preciously because we don't know
how many games we're going to get of a healthy
Joe Burrow. So I think the Bengals just got to
continue to cook here. Again, they're not playing for anything,

(17:53):
being out of the playoffs because of the Burrow's injury,
but I think they want to go at a high note,
just good vibes heading into the offseason on a winning streak,
which is the same thing he did last year too.
They ended the season very strong on a win streak,
So I think they just kind of roll over the
Browns here. So Miles Garrett will try to get to
break the sack record. We'll see if he does it.
I will then My prop in this game is Chase Brown.

(18:14):
He needs fifty three rushing yards to hit a thousand
for the first time in his NFL career. So third
season for Chase Brown. Didn't hit it last year. He
came really close to a thousand yards last year, but
he got hurt at the end of the season, so
fell just short. I think that they're going to make
a point of emphasis this week to like, hey, Joe
Burrow has just whacked so much poetic about how much
he loves Chase Brown, how he's one of the best

(18:36):
running backs in the NFL. They were talking about that
all in the broadcast last week against the Arizona Cardinals.
And I think they're going to make sure he gets
to one thousand yards. So he needs fifty three rushing yards.
I assume that his prop wasn't posted when we before
recorded the show. It's been around that like fifty five
fifty six rushing yards number, so even if it's a
little bit higher, I think that they're going to make
sure at least gets fifty three yards, So Chase Brown

(18:56):
gonna hit one thousand yards. Go over his rushing prop
this week against the Cleveland Browns, who we know the
run defense for Cleveland has been atrocious since they lost
defensive tackle Malee Collins.

Speaker 1 (19:07):
I considered Bengals to cover as my hard Rock best
bet of the week, and then you kind of already
mention it here as your prediction, so I went in
a different direction. But that was on my short list
of games I was thinking about for that prediction.

Speaker 2 (19:20):
I totally agree with you.

Speaker 1 (19:21):
I don't really have all that much to add, Like,
I think this is absolutely a.

Speaker 2 (19:25):
Game where the Bengals are gonna go.

Speaker 1 (19:26):
Like obviously the Bengals aren't playing for anything, but I
do think they are playing for themselves, like I think
they want I don't. I don't mean that like selfishly.
I mean like they want to end the season on
a three game winning streak. They want this offense to
look really good. I think they want to be able
to point to it and say, look what this could
have been, you know, if we had Burrow healthy the
whole year, Like even with the defense we have, Like
I like you said, Zach Taylor, wants to win. I'm sure,

(19:49):
like like Joe Burrow didn't come back to not you know,
go out and try to win big like the I
just think they are going to be more incentive. Like
the Browns just had their big let's end the season
on high note moment already.

Speaker 2 (20:01):
They're not. They are.

Speaker 1 (20:02):
I don't think are gonna care so much about doing
it again like the Bengals. I think are going to
want to conte. I mean, setting aside that shutout against
the Ravens, the Bengals will scored at least thirty two
points in all four games since Joe Burrow returned, Like
that is you know, I think they want to continue
that momentum going into the offseason here against the division
rival again. Like you said, it's in Cincinnati, which is

(20:23):
you know, the Browns defense has been much better at
home this year, so this geame's incensey not Cleveland. I
think the Bengals win by like two touchdowns honestly, not
not just covering the seven points.

Speaker 3 (20:34):
Yeah, I'm like, I don't want to say I'm worried
about Miles Garrett not breaking the sack record, but I
feel like if he goes and if he doesn't get
one of the first half, like there's gonna be kind
of like.

Speaker 2 (20:42):
There'll be too much pressure on it.

Speaker 3 (20:44):
I feel like they're going to be pressing a little bit,
like we gotta get in the gat we gotta get
in the sack, we gotta get in the sack, and
like you're gonna see maybe some other pass rushers like
let up a little bit so that they they know
I gotta get make sure Miles Kerrett gets the sack.
So I also think that kind of plays in the
opposite of way worked last week, where the Steelers were
kind of like maybe too focused on it. The Browns
are going to be so focused on what we've got
to get Miles Garrett the sack that oh run another

(21:05):
run play that we weren't really prepared for, especially if
they decide to get Chase Brown a thousand rushing guards,
Like they can't sack the quarterback if they are running
the ball effectively. So that does concern mean to your
point about the Browns kind of falling off after a
big win. Last week, Browns owned seven against the spread
after a win, so basically every time they win, they
usually don't live up to expectations. The following week, So

(21:26):
I mean, I want Miles Garrett to get it. I
love seeing players, elite players break records, especially on teams
that are as bad as Cleveland Browns. How Miles Garrett
has been able to do this despite always being in
like a negative game script. To have this many sacks
is just a credit to how talented a player he is.
But I mean, the Vegel's officeive lines is bad enough
where he should be able to get it done here.

Speaker 1 (21:45):
I think this sack points a great one. I couldn't
have said it better. So let's go to my next
prediction here, speaking of the Browns giving the Ravens hope,
Tyler Huntley starts again for the Ravens, but they win
anyway thanks to Eric Henry. That is my prediction prop.
I just I think Derek Henry's getting a hundred yards
and a touchdown on this one. And I think an

(22:06):
interesting betting angle is Henry as the last touchdown score,
which I didn't look up what the odds that are
because not of the props have like kind of been
posted yet for the week doing this this early, but
you can you can often find that prop somewhere, and
I think using him as the closer, Like it was
very clear in the game against the Packers that like

(22:27):
message received about not using Derek Henry against the Patriots
to close out that game, like the Ravens were like, Okay,
we're just gonna run this Hall of Fame running back
into the ground, except for you can't do it because
he is like legitimately built different and just like the
most insane beast of an athlete. I can remember recall
playing the position, and I think they're gonna do it again.
I think they're gonna, like, regardless of who's starting a quarterback,

(22:47):
I think they're gonna come in here and say, like
the path to success, especially against the Steelers team. This
is what I wanted to see in the first Steelers matchup,
is because they were coming off that loss to the
Bills when the Bills ran all over them and I
was like, Okay, do that with Derek hen Henry. They
didn't really do it, and they lost that game in
very typical Ravens Steelers fashion. I am trusting that they
have learned their lesson, and I think I honestly plays

(23:09):
to their benefit if Tyler Huntley is starting, not that
it makes the Ravens better that is like nonsense when
people like say stuff like that, like a healthy Lamar
Jackson is you know, one of the three best quarterbacks
in football. But I do think for this game in particular,
i'd rather them just say, hey, our only past to
success is riding Derrick Henry. Let's do it as opposed
to messing with like other styles of play here. And

(23:32):
I do think Tyler hunty will start, Honestly, like, I
think the back bruise was really legitimately bad for Lamar Jackson.
There's also been some talk about that which has been
really annoying, But I mean, I think he's legitimately hurt.
Tyler Huntley is going to start again, and I think
they're gonna ride Dereck Henry and it's gonna go well.
And I really I didn't want to say the Ravens
cover because I just get really uncomfortable with the idea

(23:54):
of like Tomlin getting three points, like in a matchup
that is just always crazy and close like these Ravens
Steelers games are always within a field goal.

Speaker 2 (24:03):
But I do think the Ravens win this one thanks
to King Henry.

Speaker 4 (24:07):
Yeah.

Speaker 3 (24:07):
No, this game is really fascinating from a handicapping standpoint,
because to your point, whoever the underdog is in these
Tomlin Harbaugh matchups basically usually always covers every single time.

Speaker 4 (24:19):
It doesn't matter like what the spread is.

Speaker 3 (24:21):
So and you didn't say it in your prediction, but
if Tyler Huntley does start this game, the Ravens aren't
going to be favorites, Like you're gonna see the lines
flip in favor of Pittsburgh.

Speaker 1 (24:32):
But to your point, just just really quickly, what do
you think the line will be? Because I expected like
minus three. I went into this game like before the
line posted, I was texting one of my really good
friends about who you know is an avid better about it?
I was like, like, what do you think this line
is going to be? And I thought the Ravens were
maybe going to be like favorite, like like pluck like

(24:52):
minus one or something basically to pick them even with Huntley.
But I expected it to be Hunty So then when
it was minus three, oh, I guess they're assuming Lamar
is starting. I have been kind of assuming that Lamar wouldn't.
I thought it would be Huntley again. But maybe I
end up being wrong about that. I know there's some
it's certainly still questionable. At this point in the week.

Speaker 3 (25:11):
Well, I think from a betting perspective, you probably want
Huntley because that means you get the points with the
Ravens because the lines will flip in favor of the
Pittsburgh Steelers. And then to your second point that you made,
that means they're going to feed Derek Henry. It was
really easy of an excuse to feed Derek Henry. Lasting well,
our starting quarterbacks. I'm playing, so of course we have
to feed Derek Henry, whereas if Lamar's playing, maybe you

(25:31):
feel less forced into using Derrick Henry again Harbuck and
say wherever he wants. We all know that you have
to feed Derek Henry's many times. It's December after all,
so he's just an absolute monster in these types of formats.
But I don't think it's a by coincidence that Derrek
Henry has a was it career high in terms of
carries in Week seventeen when it was a backup quarterback

(25:53):
starting the game for the Ravens. So I think that
if you are looking to back the Ravens, you wait
till the last second. Maybe Humtley gets announced in again, Like,
do I feel like their odds of winning are higher
with Huntley, not like necessarily, but you feel better about
betting on the Ravens, I think, especially when you're getting
some points with it if Hotley does start, so I

(26:14):
think that's a really good prediction to make with the
caveat if Holney plays, Derek Henry's gonna smash. And I
think too if you want to sprinkle on some more touchdown.
This is something that Joe does on the Betting Pro
Show all the time, is Derek Henry first half touchdown
where if he's gonna score anyway, it's probably the first half,
and then you can get it at much better odds
when you know he's gonna probably find the end zone
anyway in the first half.

Speaker 1 (26:33):
The other thing I want to mention on this game
too is just like no DK Metcalf again, and that
like clearly washing out to them, Yes, no DK Metcalf,
Like that is good DK Metcalf. The Ravens really struggled
to guard in that in that first matchup, and like
the reason the Ravens lost that game ultimately was like
Aaron Rodgers looked really good throwing the ball deep. It started,

(26:56):
like the very first play of the game is a
fifty pass to DK Metcalf Without Metcalf on the field,
I do think the Ravens defense will play really well
in this one. I think it'll be a low scoring
game just because the Ravens are gonna run so much
and you know, burn the clock, and the Steelers I
think we'll struggle to move the ball without DK Metcalf.
I think that was like like watching the Browns Steelers game.
I don't feel like it got mentioned as much that hey,

(27:18):
they're missing DK Metcalf. It was just like, you know,
what's going on? Why aren't they running the ball? Browns?
You know, you know she do were having the touchdown
pass early Like I was, I kept saying there. I
was like, they don't have DK, like that really matters.
Just to hit this offense. Who are they gonna throw
it to?

Speaker 4 (27:32):
There's too much Mark has vald As scaling on d Like.

Speaker 3 (27:36):
It's just like that's when that's what you're working with,
the guy who's hands and head just do not meet
at the same place.

Speaker 5 (27:43):
Man.

Speaker 3 (27:44):
Yeah, astute points across the board where I'm you clearly
know this Ravens team.

Speaker 4 (27:48):
Great analysis, but you all.

Speaker 2 (27:51):
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number three prediction?

Speaker 3 (28:46):
Going to the Saturday Slate fun two game slate for
the NFC teams going to Seattle San Francisco. I think
the Seattle is going to win this game and win
the NFC West and claim the spot as the number
one seed in the NF Seed. So you look at
Seattle and what they've done historically. I love them on

(29:06):
the road here against San Francisco. Seattle with Mike McDonald
as the head coach, they have been just absolute road warriors.
They've won thirteen of their last fourteen road games, thirteen
and two straight up on the road since the start
of last season. So this team is just built to
play away from Seattle, and it's really surprising because they

(29:27):
can't really run the football, although it has come alive
in the last couple of weeks between Ken Walker having
a big game two games ago, Sack Charbonne having a
really big game in week seventeen. So I think that Seattle. Yes,
Sam Donald seems like he's always won play away from
like totally imploding with turnovers, and Rock Purty looks like
the hottest quarterback coming into Week eighteen. But I just

(29:49):
kind of like chasing the trends here with Seattle in
a tight spread, the forty nine ers if you look
at them at home, they're traditionally a lot of times
overvalued at home. So Owen seven against the spread in
the last seven home games facing NFC West competition, so
in the division they have not really rose to the
occasion of winning and covering the spread at home. They
also fair to cover the spread sixteen of the last

(30:10):
twenty three home games four and five. Cans spread their
last nine home games one and three as home underdogs
since twenty twenty two. So I think that Santa Clara
doesn't really have the same type of emphasis playing at
Mile High or playing in Chicago playing Cleveland, it's not
the same thing. It's playing in Santa Clara, right, Like
it's not a big scary place to play. So I
think that given this Trent Williams injury for the forty

(30:31):
nine Ers, which I think is massive, we all saw
the graphic on Sunday Night Football. I actually screenshot it
because I really wanted to share it again. With Trent
Williams on the field, forty nine ers sixty and thirty
two without him, four and twelve. I guess you could
update to five and twelve because they did beat the
Bears without Trope Wulliames basically for the entire game, but
they averaged almost five points less per game. They average
over forty or fewer than forty rushing yards per game

(30:53):
less without Trent Williams on the field. Now, they seem
fine offensively against the Bears. Seattle Seahawks are not the
Bears defense. It is a significantly tarfer matchup to draw
than Chicago the Bears defense. So I like Seattle here,
and my prop that I'm tying in here with a
Seattle victory is Sam Donald's gonna rise the occasion here
and throw for over one and a half passing touchdowns.

Speaker 4 (31:14):
Going back to the contract incentives.

Speaker 3 (31:15):
Yeow, Now this is one where to your original question,
I'm about okay, how much are the Seahawk can a
weigh Sam Donald's contract concentives? Probably not at all in
this game, right, But to make my point, he's three
passing touchdowns away and one hundred and fifty yards away
from an extra million dollars in contract incentives. So again,
lowbar to pass one hundred and fifty passing yards. That's
not a giant number for.

Speaker 4 (31:36):
Him to hit. Is he gonnet three passing touchdowns? Maybe not?
But can he get over one and a half.

Speaker 3 (31:40):
With Jackson's the jig Belt against a forty nine or
secondary that just got shredded by Caleb Williams, Luthor Burden,
Colston Lovelin. I think that he can throw for two
touchdowns here, So I think Sam Donald, even though they
don't set out to have him hit all of his
contract incentives, I think in a Seahawks victory, he ends
up getting to over one and a half passing touchdowns,
one hundred and fifty passing and then the two other

(32:01):
incentives he has, or he has to hit one hundred
passer rating and completion rate of sixty seven point five percent,
which he's like right there. I think he's right now
is like sixty seven point two percent completion percentage and
his passer rating is like ninety nine point seven or
something along those lines. So he's like right on the
cusp of hitting all those benchmarks. So if he plays

(32:22):
well the Seahawks win, he gets like an extra two
million dollars.

Speaker 4 (32:25):
So wee game team Saturday night.

Speaker 3 (32:26):
It's gonna be a great night for Sam Donald company.

Speaker 1 (32:30):
First of all, I just have to say, like I
was laughing all day on Sunday. I saw people saying like, well,
what what's the Sunday night game gonna be in Week eighteen?
This is after the Browns had won. They were like,
you know, is it gonna be Bucks Panthers? Is it
going to be like, you know, the fight for the
one seed in the NFC West. I was like, I
would bet any amount of money it's it was going

(32:50):
to be Raven Steelers. This is like NBC's absolute dream
is to have Raven Steelers for the division winner win
and in loser eliminated from.

Speaker 2 (32:59):
The playoff contention.

Speaker 1 (33:00):
Like like that was always going to be Sunday Night
and then the other two games that were like super
relevant in this way, we're gonna be Saturday. So, like,
the schedule surprised me zero percent. I couldn't believe anybody
who thought.

Speaker 3 (33:11):
There was definitely no conversation of wait, should we put
Panthers Bucks on the Saturday night Primetime or the Sunday
Night was like, nah, they can be a four thirty
window usually for the Texans, but we'll give it to
the Carolina Panthers and Bucks.

Speaker 2 (33:24):
Yeah.

Speaker 1 (33:25):
Absolutely, especially because now that the Falcons won, I forget
what it is. Isn't it like if they win again,
then it doesn't actually matter, Like the Panthers can still
lose and win the division. So like they wouldn't want
to put it on Sunday because then they could know
that that game actually doesn't end up matter if it

(33:46):
matters going into Saturday. But then we'll see on Sunday,
you know maybe.

Speaker 3 (33:50):
So yeah, I don't think anything would like capture the
way this Buck season has gone. Then for them to
beat the Panthers and then have the Falcons beat the
Saints and then the there's back door on their way
into the.

Speaker 1 (34:05):
It would be hilarious, honestly. So, Sam Donald, if you
look going back to week ten, these are his QB
finishes in Fantasy QB twenty six, twenty five, eleven, thirty four,
twenty eight, eight, twenty nine. It has been really like
alternating back and forth. Now, if that pattern continues, he

(34:27):
should have a good week this week. But the point
is he has not been playing very good football here
in the second half of the season, and for that reason,
really mainly that reason, I'm actually going the opposite way
on this prediction. I think a lot everything that you
said makes a whole lot of sense, and yet I'm
looking at this that I'm like Sam Darnald with the
one seed on the line. We just saw this a

(34:50):
year ago and we saw how that panned out. And
I know it's different teams in a different situation, but
I just can't shake Week eighteen of last year out
of my mind. So I'm taking forty nine Ers to
hold Serve at home, lock in the NFC one seed
with the win over the Seahawks as my prediction. So
basically just the absolute opposite of yours. For my prop though,
rather than bet against Sam Darnold, I am taking the

(35:13):
over on this game. I do, and I think when
the Seahawks score, it will be driven by their running
game or by I mean, like you said, we saw
with this really really this is a prediction not based
on the Seahawks.

Speaker 2 (35:26):
It's based on the forty nine Ers.

Speaker 1 (35:28):
Like the offense I just think is like full death Star,
like they just look.

Speaker 2 (35:32):
I know, no Trent Williams really changes things.

Speaker 1 (35:35):
But like I just it looks so easy in this
game on Sunday night, and they're just playing so well,
and like you said, that was largely without Trent Williams,
and the defense looks so bad. So like I love
the overrun this game, even up at forty nine and
a half, and I think the forty nine ers, you know,
hold on to win it for whatever it's worth, which

(35:55):
which I don't think is much. The Niners won the
first game that was in Week one, Like who really
cares about that? They did win, you know, just just
to point that out. But but yeah, I think the
Niners win this game. I think is close and high
scoring in a really great game, and I think the
Niners pull it out in the end.

Speaker 3 (36:11):
Yeah, to your point about Week one, I think that
these rosters are totally different than they were.

Speaker 2 (36:16):
I'm just vetging it to mention it. Don't put stock
in that really.

Speaker 3 (36:20):
Yeah, I mean the forty Niners defense was good at
that point the season because they had all their main
guys like Nick Bosa, Fred Warner, and we didn't know
what Sam Donald is going to be in this offense.
So again, I have to get the good Sam Donald
for the Shawks to win. Because I I'm not going
to push back on who's the better quarterback. It's it's
obviously Brockbirdy, especially the way that he's been playing. So

(36:41):
if the forty nine Ers win, it's because Rockberdy continues
to be on a hot streak and Sam Donald calls
back into a publicain.

Speaker 1 (36:48):
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(37:09):
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you can be alerted when new episodes are up and
to claim your prize. Number two prediction here ericson what
do you have?

Speaker 3 (37:21):
The Arizona Cardinals are going to cover the I believe
nine and a half points spread against the Los Angeles Rams.
I haven't seen what the number has been updated to,
so I made this prediction with you. I thought that
the Rams would beat the Falcons on Monday night flot fall.

Speaker 1 (37:36):
I can tell you what it's updated to, just so
you know it's down to seven and a half.

Speaker 2 (37:40):
Yeah, that's on hard rock. Bet.

Speaker 3 (37:42):
I'm not surprised by the line movement there, because the
Rams have potentially nothing to play for in this game now.
Sean McVay said after the loss to Atlanta that, no,
we're playing our guys.

Speaker 4 (37:55):
I don't know.

Speaker 3 (37:56):
I not to say that I think that he's lying,
but we've seen him do this in the past where
he doesn't care about Week eighteen if there's nothing on
the line besides you know, getting a buy or something
like that, where there's a chance if the forty nine
ers lose on Saturday, then they don't even control their
path to the number five seed. So the five seeds

(38:18):
important because the winner or the five seed would go
to either Carolina or Tampa Bay, which is obviously like
the matchup you want to draw as a wild guard
team versus going to Philadelphia or Chicago. So but because
that game plays on Saturday, the Rams will know, oh,
can we actually even change our seedings? And again it's
not even in their full control. So Sean McVay has

(38:38):
always traditionally valued health over everything else, like that's the
most important thing to him. I understand from his perspective.
Maybe this year is different because hey, we lost back
to back games. We don't want to go into the
postseason kind of flat. So I get it from that perspective,
maybe he will plays guys, but you know, will they
go all out? What if Stafford gets banged up a
little bit, They're going to keep them in the game

(38:58):
when they know it's a meaningless eighteen performance.

Speaker 4 (39:01):
I don't know, so I'm just a.

Speaker 3 (39:01):
Little bit suspect of that, which is why I just
like the Cardinals with the points. It's a lot, it's
a big spread. Anyway, we know that Jacoby Brissett is
basically the king of backdoor covers because of how often
they throw the football, So I think they cover against
the Rams team that's maybe not going one hundred and
ten percent, And if they cover, that means we're going
to see Michael Wilson heavily involved as he always is.

(39:23):
Marvin Harrison Junior got injured again TBD on his status.
I don't know why they keep trotting down here when
he's not like back to health, Like, what's the point
of playing him and trying to justify the pick of
Marvin Harrison Junior as the top five option. Michael Wilson
has been better than him when he's been on the field,
So I think Michael Wilson just continue to eat like
he's been doing every single game where Marvin Harrison Junior
has been injured. He needs ninety three yards to get

(39:45):
to a thousand for the first time in his NFL career.
So I think that Michael Wilson maybe takes twenty five targets,
but he's going to get to ninety three yards because
I think that's the one thing they're going to emphasize
this week. Hey, let's get Mike to one thousand receiving
yards because why not, Like, what else are we playing
for here besides making Train McBride's records even that much
more untouchable in terms of his tight end receptions. So

(40:08):
that's gonna be my prop for the weeks. Michael Wilson,
So whatever is receiving arts prop, take the over on
it because it's not going to be ninety three, but
I think he's gonna go close to one hundred receiving
arts to make sure he gets to a thousand.

Speaker 2 (40:19):
I don't know what Sean McVay is gonna do.

Speaker 1 (40:21):
I think it would be such a mistake for him
to play Stafford or in Puka, like assuming assuming they
can't change their seed, if this game is meaningless.

Speaker 2 (40:30):
I just don't.

Speaker 1 (40:31):
I don't get I agree with Sean McVay in valuing
health over everything. And he has been really aggressive in
resting guys in the past, like to the point where
it has really kind of reshaped how teams consider rest
early in the season and things like that, Like, like
he has been at the forefront of not playing guys.

Speaker 2 (40:49):
Stafford was in.

Speaker 1 (40:50):
The weird immortal back chamber thing whatever it was called
back the whole back thing, right, Yes, in in August,
this is the entire.

Speaker 4 (41:01):
Season, we were like, Oh, is he gonna is back,
gonna seize up?

Speaker 1 (41:04):
Yes, Like week one, Puka leaves every game seemingly with
some rib injury and then guts it out. I'm like,
just like those two, anybody else, like, yeah, let's keep
everybody fresh, you know whatever.

Speaker 2 (41:15):
Those two I just don't think should play.

Speaker 1 (41:18):
And if they don't, Like, of course, this line is
like really really appealing and and yeah, like I I
know what he has said so far, I'll believe it
when I see it. In terms of him playing guys
in a meaningless game for seeding. So I mean even
last year they didn't care about getting the five seed
when that was much better. Like this exact scenario of hey,

(41:41):
the four seed is way worse than the three seed.
They did not play their guys and try.

Speaker 2 (41:45):
To win that game.

Speaker 1 (41:46):
So I'm like, like, even if that is the scenario
this year, and this game does kind of matter for seeding,
like I don't, I don't. Maybe they they're gonna approach
it different than the last year. I don't know, but
I just would be really surprised. And like I said,
I'll believe it when I see it, So I like
this pick a lot from you.

Speaker 3 (42:00):
Yeah, And to be clear, just I want to make
sure that I have the right scenario. So the Rams
have to beat the Cardinals, Seahawks have to beat the
forty nine ers, So if the forty nine ers win
over the Seahawks, that locks the Rams into the number
six seed regardless. So that's kind of what's taking place
here when it comes to the implications of that Saturday game.

(42:22):
And yeah, so also too, the the Rams already lost
to the Panthers in Carolina, so it's one of those
things where it's like carev what you wish for? Right,
I never like getting into I think coaches don't ever
want to answer that question like, oh, who do you
want to play like, because I think it's kind of
asking for the not the kiss of death or something

(42:43):
like that. But look, they're gonna have to play on
the road. They're a wildcar team. They're gonna have to
play on the road anyway, And like I laid out earlier,
they've been really good or excuse me, the Rams have
been like the Seahawks actually one of the better road
teams against the spread.

Speaker 4 (42:55):
So I think they're gonna be fine.

Speaker 3 (42:57):
They're gonna probably have to go to Philly or Chicago
at some point anyway, So I think that it really
doesn't matter to your point, he can say whatever he wants.

Speaker 4 (43:05):
We'll see it. I'll see when I believe it, or
believe when I see it.

Speaker 1 (43:08):
Yeah, yeah, that's that's exactly how I feel. Let's go
to my next prediction here. I've got Cowboys don't just
cover five and a half points in New York, but
they actually will beat the Giants by double digits. My
prop on this one is Dak Prescott, you know, one
and a half passing touchdowns, on the over if you
look at I mean, this is another one where the

(43:29):
last time these two teams played was like a very
long time ago. It was that crazy forty to thirty
seven game back in Week two. Obviously the teams look
very different there. I'm just mentioning it to mention it,
but really, like I think the Cowboys are going And
by the way, I'm still traveling. This is the last
day of my holiday trip, so I haven't seen every
quote from every coach. If they have come out and

(43:50):
said that there's any reason they're not gonna kind of
give this their all, then please correct me here ericson.
But I am going into this thinking that the Cowboys
are going to say, hey, this is the first year
with a new head coach. We had a really fun
offense for large stretches of the season. We overcame some injuries,
you know, but this was largely, like I think, a
decent first year with a new head coach. They're gonna

(44:11):
want to finish five hundred, right, they have that tie
so they can finish five hundred. I think they are
going to say we would much rather be eight eight
and one than seven to nine in one, and they
are going to actually try in this thing. The Giants,
on the other hand, we know that they just tried
against the Raiders when they probably shouldn't have. But I
wonder if they come in and say, like, Okay, like

(44:31):
we had our fun, we won that game, Like do
not run Jackson Dart, Like there is no reason for
him to take another concussion in this game. There's no
reason for us to push it in this game. I
believe they still do have a chance. If the Raiders win,
the Giants could still get the first pick.

Speaker 2 (44:49):
It is possible.

Speaker 1 (44:50):
So I wonder if ownership comes in and kind of
like puts their thumb on the scale a little bit there.
But the ultimate side of this is I think the
Cowboys are a better team, and I think the Cowboys
are much more likely to actually really try in this game,
because I do think there is going to be some
level of pride in in year one of this regime
getting to just at least five hundred and being able
to say you kind of started off on such a

(45:11):
nice foot for his tenure. So I think the Cowboys win,
and I think they win big.

Speaker 3 (45:16):
Yeah, this is going to be Week eighteen Lak Davis
Chalk week for the most part because it doesn't seem
like Jamonte Willias will probably playing this game because he's
dealing with like next shoulder injuries. He's already hit every
contract incentive he has. He's going to be a free agent,
probably wants to resign with the Cowboys. So I don't
think we're gonna see Davonte go here, but everyone else,
if they're healthy, they should be full go. So I
think the Dallas Cowboys role here as well. Seat Knivers

(45:38):
talked about how they really want to finish strong in
the division. I think that if they win against the Giants,
the goal five and one in the division. So to
your point, getting to that five hundred record his first
year as the head coach, So I think they want
to go out in a high note and you can
destroy this Giants.

Speaker 4 (45:50):
Steve.

Speaker 3 (45:50):
It's again we talked about this through the trade show.
But who's most likely to be ready for ken Kun
is the Giants in the second half of this game.

Speaker 4 (46:00):
Those stupensive players are.

Speaker 3 (46:02):
Not going to want to tackle this Malik Davis guy
who hasn't really been a starter or really played that much.
He's pretty fresh and he's gonna be running wild. So
over on Malik Davis props this week as well. If
you want to layer in some SGP action with that
Dak Prescott prop that you have.

Speaker 1 (46:16):
Let's go to our number one predictions here Ericson. We
are both on the same game here. I wanted to
make sure that I picked predictions for the three games
that are most relevant in this week, no matter what,
and then just find two elsewhere. So we've both got
this Panthers Bucks game here as our final predictions.

Speaker 2 (46:35):
What are you expecting in this game?

Speaker 3 (46:37):
Carolina Panthers are going to win this game and win
the NFC South. This is something that I'm heavily invested
in throughout the offseason. I like Caroline Panthers to win
the division. And I also bet on tetrug Million or
tetro At McMillan to win Offensive Rookie of the Year,
which he is currently the favorite, not by much. Tyler

(46:59):
Schuck is definitely breathing down his neck to kind of
take that award from him, But I think a statement
game from t MAC to get the Carolina Panthers to
that division crown, I think will cubment him as the
o offits a Rookie.

Speaker 4 (47:12):
Of the Year.

Speaker 3 (47:13):
So my prop here to go along with Caroline Panthers
winning outright and winning the NFC South. Is t Mac's
gonna go over fifty seven and a half receiving yards
obviously major disappointment. Talked about the start of the show.
He's the reason why I didn't win my fantasy championship.

Speaker 4 (47:28):
McMillan.

Speaker 3 (47:29):
I don't know if it was the sickness or what
the deal was. Dave Canalis actually came out after the
game and said that it really wasn't due to his sickness,
that was due to his lack of production. I mean,
the fact of the matter was Bright Young here for
fifty four yards.

Speaker 4 (47:41):
So you're never.

Speaker 3 (47:42):
Going to see a lot of receiver production when your
quarterback only throws for a little bit over fifty yards.
And he did give credit to the opposing defense saying
that they schematically were taking away t Mac. That's not
the case here against the Buccaneers, we know that the
easiest thing to do on them is to throw thro
our row. We saw it two weeks ago when t
mac had a big game and he was actually One
of the predictions that got right in Week sixteen was

(48:05):
that t mac was going to have a balance back performance.
So if it a broke, don't fix it. Where I'm
going back to tetrumavillin to have a big game here,
help the Carolina Panthers win the division. And the thing
with the Carolina Panthers, I've cracked the code with them
when it comes to betting on them, So they are
seven to zher straight up after a loss. So basically
every single time they lose, you beat on them the

(48:25):
next week and they cover the spread every single time.
And that's why last week I was so heavy on
Seattle to cover their touchdown despite being on the road,
because well, the Panthers were coming off a win.

Speaker 4 (48:36):
Against Tampa Bay.

Speaker 3 (48:37):
So I don't understand why Buccaneers are favored, to be honest,
I get they're at home, but Buccaneers have lost seven
of the last eight games. This team is just circling
the wagon. Baker Mayfield's not one hundred percent. He's been
injured since basically the second half of the season or
the start of the second half of the season, and
I just think that this continues to spiral for them.
So give me the Panthers on the money line. Panthers
plus three don't care the Buccaneers and t Max can

(49:01):
have a big game. He already went over this number
two in the first match up against Tampa Bay. And
the other thing too. The Buccaneers only good defensive player
in their secondary Jamal Dean. I shouldn't say only good player.
Antono Windfield's pretty good too, but Jamal Dean their corner.
He got hurt last week dealing with the shoulder injury
that Paralley's been playing through all season. If he doesn't
suit up, it's the aerial show with Bryce Youung and

(49:21):
t Mac.

Speaker 1 (49:24):
I like your prediction of the Panthers winning more than
I like your prediction of a big Tetoro McMillan game.
I would love to see a Tetron McMillan, you know,
big game. I I am a big fan of his,
But I think this is gonna be a defensive struggle.
So I'm not picking a winner in this one. I'm
saying that I think mostly unders are going to be
hitting across the board in this game in terms of props,

(49:45):
in terms of, you know, the game itself. The last
time these two teams played, which obviously was more much
more recent than some of these other rematches we've talked about,
it was twenty three to twenty so a forty three total.
That's right around what the total is in this it's
forty four on hard rock. Bet.

Speaker 2 (50:01):
I do think it goes under.

Speaker 1 (50:02):
Part of that is just because, like I can't bring
myself to really like fully trust Bryce Young, even though
he's obviously better than he was, you know when he
first came into the league.

Speaker 2 (50:10):
I just I just can't quite get that.

Speaker 1 (50:11):
I mean, he's coming off of this game where he just,
you know, like you said, through for like fifty yards.
The last time these two teams faced each other, both
quarterbacks through for under two hundred yards. The Panthers running game,
not surprisingly could not get going against his Bucks defense,
and I kind of see it playing out similarly now.
Tedorer McMillan did do well there, but I think for
the most part, we're gonna see lots of unders in

(50:32):
this one, and it'll be generally like lower scoring. I
do agree that the Panthers will win, though the Bucks
just like I mean, in September and October, Baker Mayfield
was like everybody's favorite dark horse MVP in the first
part of the year, and Mekea Buca was this like
breakout rookie and it is just like it's been a
long time of this struggle, Like this is not just

(50:54):
like a slump that's lasted like a few weeks. We're
now like well into a season and of a really
poor year by Egbuka from like week six on and
a really poor year from Baker Mayfield from like week
six on.

Speaker 2 (51:08):
And I've really i I'm gonna be We're doing that the.

Speaker 1 (51:14):
Key Questions show this week with me Deebro and fits
what we do for Week eighteen every year is rather
than key questions for those weeks matchups, we do key
questions for the offseason for a lot of these players
and teams. And I'm going to be asking them about
Agbuka really and the Bucks offense in general and kind
of what we want to do with them going in
the next year, because I find they'd be really fascinating.

(51:34):
Because it's been such a prolonged slump so far here
really to end the season. I expect that to continue
in this one. I also expect the Panthers offense to struggle.
The prop I have is Baker under one and a
half passing touchdowns, but really I think there's.

Speaker 2 (51:46):
Gonna be a lot of unders hitting across the board.

Speaker 4 (51:49):
Yeah.

Speaker 3 (51:50):
The thing with McMillan two is he's actually approaching a
thousand yards. Both him and Egbuka technically could hit one
thousand receiving yards in this game. I believe that Buka
is ninety yards away whereas t mac is seventy one.
So he hit this number the first matchup. So I
think that McMillan does ultimately get to a thousand receiving
yards whereas Abuca last week Jalen McMillan, the other mcmillion

(52:14):
on this team on the Buccaneers, was just like hyper targeted.
Just so bizarre the falloff from Buka, right, and does
that stem back from his hamstring injury? Remember he got
hurt in that Lion's game and then he.

Speaker 2 (52:26):
And he didn't really have time off to rest it.

Speaker 3 (52:28):
Right, He played the immediately the next week, even though
the Buccaneers I think had a bye week like the
week after that, and we assuon he would come back healthy.

Speaker 1 (52:35):
After that, everybody assumed he was not going to play,
and then he got like twelve targets, yes, and.

Speaker 4 (52:40):
He sucked and he was not good with those twelve targets.

Speaker 3 (52:42):
So a very just rookie year that I don't really
have anything I can compare it to where you just
come out guns blazing and then you just fall off
substantially where.

Speaker 1 (52:54):
To cut you off, But like in the reverse order,
he'd be like a top fifty pick going into the
next season.

Speaker 2 (52:59):
Everyone.

Speaker 1 (53:00):
But like the because it happened in this you know
sequence is baffling.

Speaker 3 (53:04):
Yeah, it's not usually the path that most rookies. You
start slow and then you caught fire at the end
of the year, like Luther Burden, right, he is like
the quintessential Oh, this is a classic rookie wide receiver
breakout in like season one arc where you start out
Alamanni's the keys is running. All the routes were like,
this guy's not good. We need to get the loop,

(53:25):
we need to get the talent rookie on the field.
What happens He goes on the field and he's a boler.
So yeah, very unusual seasons. So I think, yeah, I'm
interested to see what debro and Fits have to say
about me, because clearly there is talent because we saw
him play at very high level to start the year.

Speaker 4 (53:40):
It fell off.

Speaker 3 (53:41):
But how much is that related to the injuries to
Baker and Igbuka. So yeah, man, this should be a
fun game to watch.

Speaker 4 (53:47):
Hopefully, hopefully we can get at least some scoring.

Speaker 3 (53:49):
I know that you like the under in this game,
but as long as McMillan can do his job, get
it through a thousand receiving yards and get the Panthers
to w that's all I care about.

Speaker 1 (53:58):
Today's show is brought to you by our new presenting sponsor,
hard Rock Bets. So it's time for our hard rock
Best Bets of the Week, presented by hard Rock bet
Ericson what is your hard rock best bet of the week.

Speaker 3 (54:09):
Don't mean to bury the lead, but it's the Carolina
Panthers to win outright against the Buccaneers.

Speaker 4 (54:14):
I wasn't even giving them credit enough.

Speaker 3 (54:16):
Where seven to zero against the spread after a loss,
Actually it's nine, so they've covered the spread following nine
games that they have lost. They've covered the spread twelve
straight games. Is underdog swallowing a loss winners of six
straight as underdogs following a loss, including the first matchup.
I gets the tamp Bay Buccaneers where they were coming
off a week fifteen loss, and we look at the Buccaneers,

(54:36):
they have failed to cover the spread eight of their
last nine home games, and they failed to cover the
spread in eight straight games. So there's no team that
has failed to hit expectations more than the Buccaneers. And
the fact that they're favored at home just because they're
the home team and it's the Panthers. This is the
reason why I just feel very confident that you got
to continue to fade them.

Speaker 1 (54:58):
I will be going by the way plus one twenty
on the money line with hard Rock Bet is the
Panthers for your bet. I am going with the Dolphins
not to win the game, but to cover eleven points.
Very can't win the game, correct, but eleven I think
is too big a number. I think the Dolphins have
Like actually I expected them to roll over and die.
The vibes were so bad in September at the start

(55:20):
of the season for these this team, and I have
been impressed with the level to which they have you know, tried.
They're not a good team, right, Like, there's there's a
limit to how far that can take them. But since
that really weird loss on Thursday Night to the Ravens
at the end of October, there's a day before Halloween.
Their offense, you know, thirty points against the Bills. They

(55:42):
beat the Commanders when the Commanders were so a little
bit healthier, not you know, the parents were bad, but
a little bit than where they are now. You know,
they beat the Saints, who have played well, you know
since Tyler Schuck took over.

Speaker 2 (55:51):
They destroyed the Jets.

Speaker 1 (55:54):
You know, they ended up losing to the Steelers and Bengals,
but the offense wasn't terrible in those games.

Speaker 2 (55:58):
And then they just beat the Bucks.

Speaker 1 (55:59):
So I think the Patriots defense is not very good,
like it hasn't burned them yet, but it will at
some point. Again, They're not going to lose this game,
but I do think the Dolphins can keep it closer.
Eleven is a really big number for a divisional matchup,
And I know if if this game is in Miami,
I feel even better about it.

Speaker 2 (56:15):
Of course, given Patriots history there. It's in New England.

Speaker 1 (56:17):
It's gonna be really cold. That does scare me when
I make this prediction. But twas not the quarterback right
like the cold weather. Maybe that was I mean, we
have this image of it being a Dolphins thing, but
Tua was a.

Speaker 2 (56:29):
Really big part of that.

Speaker 1 (56:30):
So not that yours is some great quarterback, but I
wonder if the cold maybe impacts them a little bit,
a little bit less.

Speaker 2 (56:36):
Than it would have toua.

Speaker 1 (56:37):
And again, I just think this ends up being a
closer game. I think whoever the running back is for
the Dolphins can run on the Patriots. And I think
Mike McDaniel wants to end the season strong too, and
I think the players win end the season strong for him.
That's the vibe I've been getting here in the last
month or so. So again, the Patriots are going to
win this game, but I do like the Dolphins to
cover a very big number in eleven points. Yeah, and

(57:00):
by the way, quickly, I will say it's eleven on
hard Rock Bet. It is higher elsewhere, so if that
ends up, that could end up going even higher and
becoming like a plus eleven and a half for plus
twelve if it follows suit with where it is and
some of the other books. We like hard Rock Bet
of course it's our favorite place to bet, but that
it just is a sign that maybe it could end
up moving as well. So I like it here, but
I'll like it even more if it gets even higher

(57:21):
than plus eleven.

Speaker 4 (57:22):
Yeah, I didn't have.

Speaker 3 (57:25):
The Khanes to pick a side here with the Dolphins
and Patriots because I want my Patriots to win, of course,
But man, I thought that the points spread was a
lot for the Jets last week, and clearly it wasn't
enough points. Now, Dolphins have been much better than the Jets.
Dolphins have also beaten the Jets this year, so they're
not as a much as a bottom dwelling team. Quin

(57:47):
yours not exactly the cold weather quarterback you'd envision again
played at Texas, not exactly this. Oh, I'm like built
for cold weather, so that maybe is one kind of
concern with him making this start. And is Jalen Wata
gonna play this game?

Speaker 5 (58:03):
Like?

Speaker 3 (58:03):
That's the other thing too where I'm like, I get
a little nervous about. Okay, It's like, so the Oees
or whatever his name is, is the number one Darren Waller,
Greg Dolsich, Is this like what we're trotting out here
for you to be right here? It's it's a chan
right if he has that monster game, which he can
definitely do because the Patriots run defense. They've talked about
every single ranking show. Bunts has just been absolute buns

(58:25):
since they lost Milton Williams Robert Splaine is not healthy.
They lost another defensive tackle who has been playing. So
unless these guys suit up for Week eighteen, which I
think that the Patriots are probably going to air on
the side of caution because they're also winning the number
one seed, are a long shot anyway, I think that
those guys probably aren't gonna end up playing. And we
look at eight chan, so thirty three rushing yards away

(58:47):
from the second highest rushing yard season in Dolphins history.
He has ninety scrimming jars in eleven consecutive games. That's
the active longest, the longest active streak in the NFL.
His ten games with one hundred scrimming yards are more
are tied second most by any player in Dolphins franchise history.
Trailing what running back were Which Dolphins running back has

(59:10):
the record for most one hundred yards scrimmage games?

Speaker 2 (59:14):
I don't know.

Speaker 3 (59:15):
He also holds the record for the single highest rushing
art season in Dolphins history.

Speaker 2 (59:21):
Who is that?

Speaker 1 (59:23):
Whenever you put me on the spot like this, I'm
always like, I feel like I should know this, and
then I just my brain totally freezing.

Speaker 4 (59:28):
Comments.

Speaker 3 (59:28):
Please throw it in the comments, pause it right now,
throw it in the comments three, So you want.

Speaker 4 (59:33):
To know it? You ready? You give the fifth.

Speaker 1 (59:36):
I want to throw out a guess, but I feel
like I'm gonna sound like an idiot if I throw
out a guess.

Speaker 3 (59:40):
Come on, give it a shot, Miss Ronny Brown. Okay,
good guess, good guess.

Speaker 4 (59:45):
It's not correct.

Speaker 2 (59:47):
Okay.

Speaker 1 (59:48):
Those are the two guys actually thinking of in my head,
and I went with Ronnie Brown.

Speaker 2 (59:52):
I should have gone with the other one.

Speaker 4 (59:53):
But I mean you could have said ja ja.

Speaker 1 (59:54):
I did not think it was him.

Speaker 2 (01:00:02):
Okay. Those are our hard Rock Best Bets of the week.

Speaker 1 (01:00:04):
Today's show is brought to you by a presenting sponsor,
hard Rock Bet, the official sportsbook partner of the Tampa
Bay Buccaneers and the Jacksonville Jaguars. Just because your fantasy
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Speaker 2 (01:00:18):
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Speaker 1 (01:00:19):
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(01:00:39):
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Speaker 5 (01:00:57):
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Speaker 1 (01:01:26):
Erickson, we will get out of here on that. This
show will continue into the playoffs. We'll be doing predictions
for every single game all playoffs long, so be sure
to continue checking us out here even in the fantasy
season is over. We'll see if we can get our
records looking a little bit better here after this week
and beyond. For Erickson, I'm Ryan Warmley. Thanks everybody for
tuning in. Hopefully you are listening to this celebrating a

(01:01:47):
fantasy championship. If not, maybe we can have some fun
winnings some of bets here in week eighteen.

Speaker 2 (01:01:52):
We'll see you next time.

Speaker 1 (01:01:53):
Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football Podcast.
If you love the show, the best free way to
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Speaker 2 (01:02:04):
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Andrew Erickson

Joe Pisapia

Derek Brown

Thor Nystrom

Ryan Wormeli

Pat Fitzmaurice

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.css-14f5ked{margin:0;word-break:break-word;display:-webkit-box;-webkit-box-orient:vertical;box-orient:vertical;-webkit-line-clamp:2;overflow:hidden;}Top 10 Fantasy Football Predictions & Prop Bets for Week 18 (Ep. 1921)