Week 6 Buy Low + Sell High Running Back Targets (Ep. 1758)

Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Hello everybody. Welcome into the Fantasy Pros Football Podcast. I'm
Ryan Warmley, joined as I am every Tuesday by Andrew Erickson.
Maybe Wednesday, depending on when you end up listening to this.
At some point in the week. We were recording this
on Tuesday morning though we were talking week six running
back buys and sales. This is part one. There will
be a part two dropping both on YouTube and wherever
you get your podcast on audio that will be more

(00:22):
focus on the wide receivers, quarterbacks, things like that. As
a part of this episode, though, we will also be
reacting to Monday Night football. We had an upset here
ericson in Jacksonville. Thirty one for the Jags, twenty eight
for the Chiefs. Very fun game, very wacky, fun drive
to end it from Trevor Lawrence. His game winning drive

(00:45):
capped off by falling and doing the old stumble Ruski
and somehow making it into the end zone. I don't
know that was wild, but he made some really good
throws on that drive as well. Lawrence rushed for two touchdowns,
he threw for another. Brian Thomas Junior did have eighty
receiving yards, which he has not done a lot this year.

(01:05):
Of course, Kareem Hunt rushed for a couple of touchdowns.
Mahomes rush for one. He also threw for one and
threw for over three hundred yards. Taekwon Thornton ninety yards receiving,
Travis Kelcey seven catches, sixty one yards in a touchdown.
Those are some of the highlights. Well, I guess I'll
say Travis Hunter two three catches for sixty four yards.
He had the big forty four yarder they talked about

(01:26):
there was gonna be some prizes for him this week.
I'm not really sure what those are supposed to be.
But he also had a bit of an injury issue
at one point, kind of coming off the field limping
a bit. So those are that's kind of the box
score ericson. But what was your big fantasy takeaway from
what was a very fun Monday night game.

Speaker 2 (01:42):
Yeah, I think that there were a couple of different
angles to look at it. I know that we've talked
about on this show before about Travis etn and how
he could be a cell high candidate with tougher matchups
coming up. This was one of the tougher matchups and
Aten didn't rip off the massive run like he has
in past weeks. He didn't score any touchdowns despite having
more red zone usage, So I still think that he
is in that territory because of the matchup for Jacksonville,
for their running backs do get a little bit tougher,

(02:03):
and they also lost one of their I believes our
starting center he got hurt in this game. So if
this banged up, if the Jaguars offensive line is banged up,
that pctually hurt the run game in the future. So
I had somebody to kind of pay attention to when
it comes to the Jaguars backfield. Per Shart Smith, they
lied to us. He did not really have an I mean,
I guess it depends on what you need by expand
I mean he didn't play more so, so that was

(02:26):
like the number one thing. I believe only played like
nine offensive snaps and he actually had half the amount
of touches that he did the week previously. He did
have three catches on three targets, and he did actually
have a red zone carry. He almost actually scored on
the first drive, and as someone that bet the anytime touchdown,
I was very very sad that he didn't find the
end zone. And of course kream Hunts. The guy scores

(02:47):
two touchdowns. As as I alluded to on the Week
five Ranking show, whenever you played Kareem Hunt in your
starting lineup, it is us Spray and prey. When it
comes to Kareem Hunt, you're just you're just hoping like
the guys stumbles into the end zone. That's exactly what
he did. I think Pacheco looks okay, but his usage
is just terrible. It's a three way committee. He doesn't

(03:08):
get the high leverage opportunities like Kareem Hunt does, so
he is like a middling RB three. I don't think
you can outright cut him, but I know I had
questions about Burshard Smith for day at Pacheco, like heading
into this week, should I cut Pacheco for Breshard Smith?
And I don't know if I feel like you can
do that, just because I mean, Pacheco's going to see

(03:29):
more opportunities every week than Breshard Smith. And this didn't
really change my mind about that. So that's kind of
a tough thing to kind of pars through Travis Hunter.
The usage is kind of all over the place, playing offense,
playing defense. It doesn't seem like Jacksonie knows what they're doing.
They're trying to find unique ways to kind of get
him involved, but he is very tough to trust on
a week to week basis because it changes based on
the game plan. You know who's available for defense, who's

(03:49):
available for offense. So the Renton Strange injury could could
open up more opportunities for Travis Hunter to have a
bigger role as a receiver as maybe that security blanket
for Trevor Lawrence if Strange I believe he has a
hip injury. I don't know how long he is out for.
That was another thing that you didn't mention. He did
get hurt in this game. I mean, he's been a
guy who's caught a lot of targets and a lot
of passes from Trevor Lawrence. I think the Trevor Lawrence

(04:11):
touchdown at the end of the game has come to
summarization of how Trevor Lawrence played. I mean it was
like bonehead play after bonehead play and then somehow like
making it into a positive play. I think Brian Thomas
Junior is also trending up. I think that this was
a good game for him again, four for eighty six. Targets.
It's positive, like that's what we want to see from
from Buyan Thomas Junior.

Speaker 1 (04:33):
Just quickly. On the Chiefs backfield, I find it really
interesting that if you look at the consensus rest of
season rankings on fantasypros dot com, which you can navigate
to from Fantasypros dot com slash rankings, Isaiah Pacheco is
the highest rated Chiefs running back. He's at RB forty one.
This is a half PPR scoring. Pachecko' is RB forty one,

(04:54):
Brashard Smith is RB fifty, Kareem Hunt is RB fifty four.
I feel like, given the spl but the fact that
it's Hunt that is scoring all the touchdowns and getting
those opportunities, that Hunt should be higher. I mean, I guess,
as I'm talking through, I'm not sure, because I do
think Pachecko looks good and it wouldn't totally stun me
if in the second half of the year, like Pachecko

(05:15):
does take back over the backfield at some point if
he continues to look good. But right now, it feels
like if I had to start one of the three,
it's definitely Kareem Hunt.

Speaker 2 (05:25):
I think that there's hesitance for the rest of his
rankings because we know that Kaream Mounk's not the best
running back on that team, right, So it's hard for
me to as a ranker to be like, well, I'm
gonna push all my chips on a cream Hunt like that.
Dad doesn't seem like the smart move to make. Yes,
his opportunities are a lot better. And maybe this is
the wrong take, but I just think that Pacheco was

(05:46):
the best running back. And we talked about this last week,
which Akory Krosski merit the usage was not in his favor,
but he looked like the best running back on the team,
and what happened he ended up getting the usage in
his favor again kind of under the radar. Where as
it Pacheco played a season. Hints now last night it's
sixty two. So although Hunt scoring all the touchdowns, like
you put peek under the hood, you're like, oh, like,
Pacheco did play a lot, and I think that he's

(06:08):
looked pretty good last couple of weeks. It's just a
matter of, hey, can they get this guy more touches,
especially in the passing game in the red zone. But yeah,
carem Hun's always going to kind of be a thorn
in Pacheco's side.

Speaker 1 (06:21):
Yeah, to be clear, I don't want to go all
in on Kareem Hunt. I don't want to start any
of these three right now. I'll just say if I
had to start one of him right now on Kareem Hunt, yeah, yeah,
Flea's editors do not do that. Yeah, Pachecko's in that
annoying range right now where it feels really hard to
start him. But like, I definitely don't want to drop him,
which is a tough place to be, especially this time

(06:42):
of year when buys are happening and guys are getting
injured and kind of needs your depth. So hopefully they
start giving him better usage soon, because I agree, I
like just watching him. I think he looks better as
the season's gone on. Let's jump into our show. We
always start this first part with some kind of macro
level tradestrategy advice from ericson. This doesn't have to be

(07:02):
about specific like buys and sells for players, doesn't have
to be about running backs, just kind of in general.
You know, as we head into week six here, a
month and a half into the season now, like into
the bye weeks, like for real, and you know, last
week was the start of it. You know, what's kind
of what are you thinking about thirty thousand foot view
in terms of making trades. By the way, just so
everybody knows here at the start of the week, the

(07:24):
two teams on by it. There's not a lot of
them this week. It's just the Texans and the Vikings.

Speaker 2 (07:28):
I think for me, the approach this weak is to
buy good players, and even if the situations seemed kind
of murky and a little bit unknown, if you look
at this is something I took some time to do
last week. I looked at twenty twenty four, the first
five weeks, the first four weeks of twenty twenty four,
and how players were doing, not necessarily in terms of

(07:49):
Fantasy points scored, but how they were in some of
the efficiency marks, their PFF grades, their points above expectation,
things like that. And I found that a lot of
the player that played really well in the first four
to five weeks of the season ended up, you know,
continuing to play well for the rest of the season.
The only guys that really weren't those types of players
were older players. Where if an older player started out

(08:10):
the season really really hot, he was a player that
you wanted to kind of get away from because it
did start to tail off as the season progress which
I don't think is like that outlandish or weird to
kind of envision happening that. Yes, veteran players that are older, yes,
this is when they're going to be most productive, when
they're most healthy and they're at their freshest, whereas the
season progresses, you don't necessarily see that from them. So

(08:31):
this was the process play behind Jacorey Krossky mehort last week. Right,
the usage was not there, but he checked off every
single box when it came to well, how good is
this guy? Like he's he's smashing every single efficiency metric
number one ructioning success rate. And then finally the commanders decided, hey,
we're gonna turn the ball over to Jakorey Krosski Mayor
and he was a massive hit. That being said as well,
I think that you really want to try to pay

(08:51):
attention to the injury stuff, and this is something that
was a big miss for me last week, just the
whole Trey Benson thing where it seemed like he was
okay but maybe there was more rumbling. So that was
a mistake that I made. Give about giving out that
so that take age like spoiled milk. Luckily, the Kurosky
merit age like fine wine. So we're one and one
when it comes to the running back buys and sells.
So hopefully at least you will pick u Michael Carter this

(09:13):
past week he was able to fill in if you
did go after trade Benson. So yeah, those are some
kind of my macro levels stats. And when you're trying
to buy players too, it's really hard to envision, Okay,
I'm gonna buy this player then flip them the next week.
That's hard to do. Orcs and theory that you can
flip players like stocks, but it doesn't always work that way.
So whenever I'm looking to buy a player, I'm thinking

(09:35):
of the back of my mind, I'm gonna have this
guy in the rest of my He's gonna be on
my team for the rest of the season. And if
I don't think that he is good, like, that's a
problem and I need to stop. Versus I do believe
in this player's talent. I do believe that the situation
maybe can change for the better. Maybe they'll get better
quarterback play, you know, down the line. Maybe they've had
a bunch of really tough matchups. Those are players I
want to be looking to trade for and vice versa.

Speaker 1 (09:58):
I'm sure the you know, commenters in the audience only
brought up to Corey Krafsky merit to you and never
brought up trade Benson. I'm sure they were very kind
to you in that way. Do you kind of the
last question that was jump in the running backs? Do
you feel like, uh, would you? Because for some people,

(10:19):
the idea of approaching players who have had their bye
week is I get a guy who's basically getting an
extra week over anybody else who hasn't had their bye
week yet, like they are not going to miss again.
But on the other hand, I wonder if these early buys,
you're setting yourself up for a position where you get
to the Fantasy playoffs with these players and they haven't

(10:40):
had a week off in you know, two months at
this point because it was such an early bye week,
and maybe they're more likely to get banged up. They
don't get that kind of reset, refresh bye week which
helps you recharge. So do you is that in the
back of your mind at all if you were trading
for any players who like already just had their bye
week this last week, so or are you just more

(11:01):
saying like, listen, they've got it out of the way,
that's too much of an advantage. I want to go
after those guys anyway.

Speaker 2 (11:07):
Yeah, I think it's for me, it's just looking at
the extra week of production and the less that you
have to fill because oh, well, this guy right is
bye week, I can start him rest of the way.
So that's the way I'm thinking about it. And I
think that that's also really captured in the value of
these players when you're making trades. I think that part
of the trade negotiation is, oh, well, so and so
already had their bye week, so I need this much

(11:29):
more in the deal, or you need to lower your
asking price because this player hasn't had their bye week yet.
So I think it just goes part of the trade negotiating.
And I think it does depend on where you're at
on your team. What's your record. So much of trades
and certain players to buy and sell are very dependent on, well,
what is your record. If you're a losing team, you

(11:51):
can't take on guys that are going to be taken
zeros for you that are on bye weeks this week
whereas if you're a team with a very strong record,
you can play a little bit more bully ball, where
you can kind of dictate trades a little bit more
in your favor and no, I'll take you know, this
player on a bye week with a bad matchup in
week six or bat or a bye week in week seven.
I can take on a player that might score zero

(12:11):
points this week and then miss next week because I'm
a bye week because I'm five and one or I'm
six and oh whatever my record is. So I think
that's another thing to also look at when you're making
some of these deals.

Speaker 1 (12:24):
We're launching I don't know if it's actually launched yet,
but if not, it's coming soon. A new feature at
Fanspros called Trade Persuade, where not that we're trying to
trick people into making terrible trades, but where you know,
sometimes when you're trying to negotiate a trade, stuff like
that isn't noticed by both parties or you forget to
bring it up. And it's kind of a way to

(12:44):
help make the case of like, hey, this is like
very it's kind of like a cliche, right, like, well,
this trade helps you more than it helps me. Or whatever,
like in trying to swindle somebody, trade persuade, what kind
of actually show like, here's the breakdown of why this
actually genuinely is mutually beneficial for everyone, and and stuff
like you know a bye Week's already happened. Can go
into that and negotiating as a skill, And I donunderstand

(13:08):
negotiating as a way of like getting one up on
somebody else. It's just negotiating in terms of helping both
parties see that there's mutual value here. So hopefully that
future helps with that and things like you know, bye weeks.
It can get you know, taken into consideration there. Let's
jump into the running backs to buy here ericson who's
number one for you to go?

Speaker 2 (13:27):
With Breese Hall running back for the New York Jets.
We saw Breshall play his first game in totality without
Braylan Allen in the lineup. He played sixty two percent
of the snaps. Isaiah Davis Fielden as the RB two,
played forty percent of the snaps. Now, Hall did get
banged up a little bit in this game against Dallas.
He also lost a fumble at the end of the
first half, but started the second half so I'm always

(13:48):
going to becoming whenever there's a guy that potentially has
an injury, I'm going to be very very clear, like,
don't make any trades until we get the Wednesday injury
report because I refuse to be trade Benson again. So
just keep that in mind. Came back in the game,
so I'm assuming that he is fine, but just keep
an eye on the Wednesday injury report as we get
more information. That being said, the touches were still heavily
in favor of Breese Hall. He out touched Davis eighteen

(14:10):
to four, and I think a key point of his
usage was he did see the lone goal line carry
from the three yard line. Again, Hall hasn't scored yet
this season, but usually those carries go to Braylon Allen.
That was not the case, so Isaiah Davis isn't taking
over that Braylan Allen role. It's now Breesehall has goal
line opportunities. Now, how great is that when you're an

(14:30):
zero to five Jets team. Not that great, but still
will take it because it is It is increasing at
least the floor with Breesaw that he's not being taken
out of the backfield when the Jets getting close to score.
So again belcow usage over one hundred plus darts from Scrimma.
He's been really efficient this year. I think he Garrett
Wilson justin fields when they've had their moments. On offense,
they've been the reason why the Jets have been able

(14:51):
to move the ball effectively at times in some of
these weaker defenses. And I really want to point at
the schedule here with the Jets. This week it's London
with the Broncos, not great, but after that it's the
Panthers and Bengals, which are just two monster matchups for Breesehall.
So I think that he is a good Bilow running back.
Right now. People are obviously down to the Jets rightfully,
so they're only five, but a couple good matchups coming up.

(15:13):
If you lost Omaron Hampton, Breesehall might be a guy
to go after.

Speaker 1 (15:18):
If you look at the rushing leaders in the NFL, breshall,
despite having two games with the under thirty yards, you know,
in weeks two and three, despite those dragging him down
through the first five weeks, he is seventh in the
NFL in rushing yards and in the top twenty of
that leader board. He is the only player without a
rushing touchdown, So that would you know suggest I mean

(15:42):
you probably could have guessed it anyway, right, but that
would you know, help suggest that he is likely to
start getting more of those opportunities, like we know Brydon
Allen is out for a long time and that they
want those to go to Hall. I don't know how
good the Jets the offense is going to be over
the course of the season and providing those opportunities in general,
but obviously he's going to get more than zero baring
some kind of catastrophe. And the rushing production's been there.

(16:06):
That also doesn't include the receiving yards. That's strictly rushing yards.
They're receiving. You know, he's had at least thirty yards
in four out of five games, and he has multiple
catches in every game, and particularly the last three games alone,
he has thirteen total receptions and over one hundred receiving
yards across the last three games. So the yardage production

(16:26):
feels very clear is going to be there, you know,
moving forward, and if the touchdowns go up, he's going
to be really valuable relatives, Like right now, he's already thirteen.
It's a touchdown start coming. With the yardage he's giving you,
that is going to end up being too low.

Speaker 2 (16:42):
Yeah, so the touchdowns, it maybe is still a stretch
to assume that they will start to come because he
obviously plays on a bad team.

Speaker 1 (16:50):
Well, well they're going to come more than zero, right
like it's it's it might not be like a league
leading rushing touchdown. So he's not gonna be like the
new Jonathan Taylor who has six already. But it's gonna
be more than the zero.

Speaker 2 (17:01):
You will strongly he'll probably score against the Pans Bengals. Yeah,
I'll probably happen.

Speaker 1 (17:07):
Yeah, I would think so. All Right, So he's RB thirteen,
Like I said, that's in half FPR scoring. Your other
running back to buy is actually ranked even higher. He's
up at RB eleven.

Speaker 2 (17:17):
Yeah, we're buying the expensive running backs this time around,
not going after the cheap guys like last week. Derek Henry.
You know Derek Henry right when I'm running back for
the Baltimore russard of them. Now, this is a trade
that you don't make if you need Derek Henry right now.
This would not be a trade as a one in
five manager zero to six Hey, shlike travor Derrick Henry.
That's probably not the case because I'm not expecting Lamar

(17:38):
Jackson to play in this matchup in Week six against
the Los Angeles Rams, that's not a great matchup anyway
for running backs. So then the Ravens going by in
week seven, that's when you're making this trade because after
the bye week, you're assuming that Lamar Jackson will come
back to the starting lineup. You'll see the Ravens offense
get back up to potential of high scoring. I don't
know where the defense is going to be. It's probably

(17:59):
not going to be fixed anytime soon, but that's okay.
If their defense is bad giving up points, then you're
going to see this Ravens offics had to score a
lot of points. So I like going after Derrick Henry
as a buy low. With the vibes around the Ravens
so bad, everyone's injured, no one's ever coming back, which
isn't necessarily the exact case. And we look at who
they play after their bye week. It's the Bears in

(18:20):
the Miami Dolphins, just two absolute smash spots for a
guy like Derrick Henry. So the Ravens could be faced
at what after they lose against the Rams this week,
they'll be one in five, right worm, Yes, So they're
gonna need to start to get some wins to get
back into the AFC or a discussion that's going to
come after the bye week when they have some easier matchups,
especially for Derrick Henry. So if you have a strong record,

(18:43):
I think going after Derrick Henry on the cheap is
a way to approach it.

Speaker 1 (18:47):
So the thing with Henry that I struggle with is
I wonder, yes, when the Mark comes back, the offense
will clearly be much better. I wonder if the defense,
if it's really not fixable given the injuries, and if
that's the case, if that will still prevent Derrick Henry

(19:07):
from having these big games, because they're going to be
in shootouts, because even if the offense is playing really well,
like the if the defense is the worst in football, like,
they're still going to be behind in games even with
Lamar back. And I wonder if, like I wonder, if
Lamar isn't this like band aid for Derek Henry's production

(19:28):
in the way that fixing the defense would be and
fixing the defense is obviously much less likely than you know,
Lamar coming back as good as he was.

Speaker 2 (19:37):
I think those are good points to bring up. I
just think that Lamar is the what is it the
tie that lifts all boats?

Speaker 1 (19:44):
And he is for sure that So that's the way I.

Speaker 2 (19:47):
That's the way I see it. And if anything, how
do you protect your again, I think to play Devil's Gate, well,
what if the ravens acide? Well, we need to feed
Derek Henry twenty five carries to keep our defense on
the field, right, Like, how do we how do we
protect our defense? We run the ball. We don't necessarily
need to score these super exposive plays, although you could
again make in the other argument is Derrick Henry. He's
most productive by when he rips off like those ad

(20:08):
R touchdowns, Like when he's ripping off explicit versus like
grinding out yardage that's usually not where he has.

Speaker 1 (20:14):
He's had multiple games this season under two and a
half yards per Carrie. I mean the efficiency his season
is really boosted by how much he dominated Buffalo in
Week one and he has really not looked himself since then.
And Lamar played for two and three quarters of those
four games, and Derrick Henry felt like he wasn't looking

(20:37):
like himself and was getting stuffed at the line, like
the offensive line is not good. I was getting so
angry not at the Ravens losing this weekend because obviously,
like you expected with what that injury report looked like.
I was telling everybody about the mortgage on Houston, but
I was getting so angry at people who were like
talking about like they were almost surprised that at how

(20:58):
much the Ravens were bat And I was like, I
have fighting for Lamar Jackson in these like debates for years,
Like he covers up so much more than he gets
credit for. Everybody looks like, oh, like, look at all
these Pro bowlers they have like like like like the
MVP debate last year. I talked about this on Friday too,
So I don't know, I don't we don't need to
dive injury again. But I'm like, like Lamar covers up
way more than he is, boosted by his teammates and

(21:19):
scheme and all that. Like he is very very special
as a quarterback, and he just he erases mistakes, mistakes
from receivers, mistakes from offensive lineman, mistakes from the defense.
He is a mistake eraser. Todd Munkin calls him that
actually and and yeah, so he could be kind of this,
like you said, the rising tide that lifts allt boats
and and kind of covers up all these other warts

(21:41):
and makes Henry look good again. But I do worry
about the defense because the Ravens, like, for whatever reason,
they do not if they are down that Justice Hill
is on the field, it's not Dereck Henry, and I
just worry that the defense will keep them in that spot,
even with Lamar, you know, back and theoretically playing better.
The other thing, too, is I don't know, like hamstrings
are tricky, and if the Ravens are like very much

(22:02):
out of it because they keep losing through all these
injuries and Lamar is like not one hundred percent that
he's had injuries linger in the past where they've kind
of gone on longer than the team was talking about.
I'm just not one hundred percent he could be. But
he could rush back this weekend, right if they feel
really desperate. I'm not saying that there's no way he's
back after the bye, but like it wouldn't shock me
if he's not all the way back, or if he

(22:23):
is back, if he's still really limited mobilely and it
really hurts the offense. So I'm just kind of throwing
that out there as well.

Speaker 2 (22:30):
Yeah, I mean I would be very surprised with plays.
I mean, they have a week seven bye week that
to your point, this makes no sense to put him
out there if he's less than one hundred percent. It's
a non conference game, it's against an NBFC opponent, So
in the grand scheme of things, if they really lose
against the Rams, doesn't really make that much of a
difference probably. I mean, even if Lamar plays this game,

(22:50):
they could lose, right, the Rams are one of the
better teams in the NFL, So I would the.

Speaker 1 (22:55):
Rams are going to score thirty five points in this game.
It's just going to happen, I promise you.

Speaker 2 (23:02):
The Ravens just need to win the NFTY North. And
it's not like the Bengals or Browns are these amazing
teams that are going to be Again. The Ravens still
have almost all their divisional matchups. They're already one on
the division. They beat the Browns already, so I still
think even at one in five that they're not out
of this entirely. And all you got to do is
get to the dance, and I think that they can
make noise if they have like you said, they have

(23:22):
them Mark Jackson, Who cares what the defense is like?
As long as you got lamar and you got a shot.

Speaker 1 (23:26):
Today's show is brought to you by our new presenting sponsor,
hard Rock Bet. We know Tuesdays are for scouting the
waiver wire. Once you're done finding your diamond in the rough,
head on over to hard Rock Bet. See what their
odds are to score another touchdown, See what their yardage
total over is. On hard Rock Bet, you don't have
to wait for week six to kick off to get
in on the action. There's always something to bet on.
If you haven't tried your first bet on hard Rock
Bet yet, there's still time for you to get one

(23:47):
hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets if you win.
Just place a five dollars bet and if it hits,
you get not only your winnings, but one hundred and
fifty dollars in extra bonus bets. There's new promos every day,
so if you're listening to this later, just open the
app and check out what you've got on any day
of the week, download the hard Rock Bet app and
make your first deposit payable and.

Speaker 3 (24:06):
Bonus bets not a cash offer offered by the Seminole
Tribe of Florida. In Florida, offered by the Seminal hard
Rock Digital LLC.

Speaker 1 (24:11):
In other states.

Speaker 3 (24:11):
Must be twenty one and physically president Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana,
New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, or Virginia to play. Terms and
conditions apply. Concerned about gambling in Florida called one eight
eight eight Admit it In Indiana. If you are somebody
you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call
one eight hundred and nine with it gambling problem called
one hundred gambler in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, in New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, Virginia.

Speaker 1 (24:31):
All right, Eric, soon, who's your first running back to sell?

Speaker 2 (24:34):
Im going to sell New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara.
This past week was kind of a smash spot for
him against the lonely New York Giants, one of the
worst rendy fits of the NFL, and man Kamara did
not do that much, So that really makes me concerned
about what his ceiling is on a week to week
basis playing in the Saints offense. This is the one
game that the Saints were favored in and a game

(24:55):
that they won at home against a bad defense against
the run game and Kamara to not hit whatsoever. His
receiving uses has been really spotty throughout the year. Spencer
Ratler is a mobile quarterback, so he doesn't always check
them all down to his running back. Sometimes he just
takes off and runs with his legs, so it's been
really up and down. This past week it was okay.
He did see a decent amount of usage as a receiver,

(25:16):
but there are some games this year where he's kind
of been non existent as a receiver, so that concerns me.
Kendrick Miller's getting more involved. Kendre Miller had more carries
to Kamara in this past week matchup, ten carries for
forty one yards. He also led the carrier or Miller
also had thirty nine percent of the snaps to kamaras
fifteen six percent on the season. Efficiency wise, kamaras PFF's

(25:36):
fourteenth lowest grader running back. Miller is the fourth highest
grader running back for the Saints. So looking at okay again,
these aren't the be all, end all stats, but it's
trying to capture how efficient player is breaking tackles and
yards after contact. Kendrick Miller has been better than Alvin Kamara.
I don't think that's like two surprised. Kamara is an
older running back. He's not really known for being the

(25:58):
super efficient runner, especially throughout the last couple of years
he's known.

Speaker 1 (26:01):
I think it might be surprising how big that disparity is.
I don't think it's surprised, and that Miller's look better,
but that's a pretty wide gap.

Speaker 2 (26:07):
Yeah, it's a pretty wide gap. And I think it's good
to compare them side by side because they are running
behind the same offensive line, so they're, you know, put
in similar situations. And Candre Miller has been the more
efficient rusher, So I don't think his opportunities are going
to be going away because he's playing well, he's perceived
positive coach speak. So Candre Miller is a player that's
starting to eat into Kamara's workload. And then you have

(26:29):
this other third factor with Taysom Hill coming back to
the lineup. Tasom Hill six carries his first game back,
so that is a concern every opportunity that Taysom Hill
is getting. So he touched the ball on seven of
his nine offensive snaps, one of which came at the
Giants twelve yard line. So again, just more players that
are eating into what could go to Kamara, whether it's touchdowns,

(26:51):
whether it's deceptions, whether it's carries. And then he plays
for the Saints offense. Like we know that the ceiling
on this team is not really high anyway, So for me,
I'm trying to sell Kamara. I think at this point,
you're hoping he gets traded. I mean, I think that's
the ideal outcome. If you have Kamara on your team,
he goes to a contender, then he needs a running
back upgrade. We talked about the Chiefs earlier. Maybe they're

(27:11):
a team that makes it play for Kamara. But besides that,
if he's on the Saints team, I just don't see
scenario where I trade away Kamara. And I think, man,
that was the biggest mistake I made, trading away Alvin
Kamara on the Saints who aren't going to win a
lot of games. He's in now potentially a three headed
committee with Taysom Hill and now added into the fold.
So I'm definitely trying to get out of Camara.

Speaker 1 (27:32):
He's not going to totally bought him out for you, right,
Like the usage is strong enough that he's not going
to have like an RB sixty five type of a week.
But yeah, like the ceiling, I mean you could have
argued against the ceilings before the season, just knowing what
the Saints offense wild look like in terms of like
the touchdowns scoring opportunity. He has one touchdown this season
and it came in Week one. He has not scored
in the last month, and that's including like receiving and

(27:55):
rushing touchdowns. He has not scored any you know, dating
back to Week one. So yeah, yeah, Like I'm with
you on the ceiling here, what do you think you
can get for somebody like him right now? Who is
you know older? He's thirty and people tend to not
be that interested in running backs who are thirty. He's
on what is perceived to be like maybe the worst
offensive football at least one of the worst. He hasn't

(28:16):
been that good. He has a young running back they
sharing the backfield with. Like, what do you think you
could actually get for him right now? Just based on
the name value?

Speaker 2 (28:25):
Could you get Cory Krossky merit or is the is
the window close shut after this past week.

Speaker 1 (28:32):
They're right two spots apart in ECR for rest of
season rankings, So if people are going by that, then
maybe there's an opportunity. I would imagine a lot of
people like if you we always talk about this, like
kind of the emotional side of trades, like if you
were the guy who got Jacory Krofsky Merritt in draft
when there was so much hype and you know, it

(28:54):
was Bill season and just everybody is so excited if
you got him, and now you just saw what he
did this last week, Like you're not trading him for
an aging veteran who's looked bad, Like you're just even
if even if you agreed with the ranking and said
I actually have Kamara higher rest of season, it's hard
to pull the trigger there.

Speaker 2 (29:14):
I mean, I mean I would take the Bill side.
So that that's one of the reasons why I, you know,
talked about him last week. I'm trying to think of
other potential names. I'm looking at my rest of season
rankings a good idea of like where I have him
ranked with the other running backs, because I I mean,
where is he in the rest of season ranking? He's
got to be like the low end RB two rank.
Maybe what you would do is, I.

Speaker 1 (29:36):
Think he's RB twenty two. I just clicked off it,
but I believe he's RB twenty two.

Speaker 2 (29:41):
So look, he's not a name we're bringing up specifically here,
but every single week the universe is trying to make
Travon Henderson a thing.

Speaker 1 (29:51):
Like I think that's that's what I think you could do,
because people who have Travan Henderson would want are kind
of ready to move on, So that one, I think
is like doable.

Speaker 2 (29:59):
Even though every single week, besides Trevion Henderson's on field performance,
it gives you a reason to buy said player. And
Tenny Gibson's gonna miss the rest of the year. Fromandra Stevenson,
just I mean, what about what I don't know, what
kind of dirty has on Mike Bravolta.

Speaker 1 (30:18):
What about some of like if you look at the
flex rest of the season rankings, what about some of
the receivers, Like if you need a receiver, you know
Xavier Worthy, DK Metcalf, Stefon Diggs, Michael Pittman, Junior, Quentin Johnson.
Do those sounds like the right names for a trade
with Kamara.

Speaker 2 (30:32):
I think Diggs would be a good move to make,
especially for a running back needy team. Maybe you can't
really move Kamara for a running back straight up. Maybe
it has to be for a flex option or a
wide receiver like you mentioned, and I think that he
would be an interesting player to go after. Diggs has
looked really good the last two weeks. He's really popped off.
He hasn't scored over those two weeks, even though the
pitchers are trying to get him into the end zone.

(30:53):
They were trying desperately to get him the en zone
against Buffalo, just didn't end up working out. But that
would be another option. I think Kamara, you got to
go to a manager that is running back needy, find
the player that lost Omaron Hampton they're looking because it's
like if I'm looking at Hassan Haskins or Alvin Kamara,
I'd rather have Kamara than Hassan Haskins at this point,
especially behind the Chargers' offensive line that is just is

(31:13):
just decimated by injuries. So that's a good move to
our way to approach moving Kamara, who again we talked
about it the stock isn't high on him. He's not
really a cell high per se, but he does have
some value and with Bie Weeks, people might need a
running back.

Speaker 1 (31:27):
Give me your other running back to sell.

Speaker 2 (31:30):
My other running back is David Montgomery. This comes after
he had a big game against Cincinnati Bengals. We talked
about this on the Betting Pro show. Trail Firm next
brought up this was like a homecoming game for Dave Montgomery,
who was a Cincinnati born and raised. His sister was
at this game, get to see him play for the
first time. And I think that Dan Campbell like really
bought into this and like hey, like let's get Dave
Montgomery more carries. He threw a touchdown in the game

(31:52):
like like that, like that's not part of his natural
role on the Detroit Lions. So given the just I
mean it was a Cincinnati this was just like a
smash spot for Dave Montgomery. So in the Beyond the
Waiver Wire article I was writing about Dave Montgomery talking
about after the Ravens game, I thought that he was
a sell high candidate after that game. But if you
didn't sell high him after that monster game on primetime,
like the Bengals game was the spot wait till he

(32:15):
plays the Bengals multiple touchdowns, throwing one, rushing for a touchdown,
had more carries than jamieer Gibbs. I think this is
the time for you to sell high on Dave Montgomery,
who we still know is a part time running back,
and the lines having much tougher matchup this week. They're
on the road against the Chiefs, Like that is a
much tougher spot for this Lion's offense, especially against the
Chiefs run defense at slow down Travis etn on Monday

(32:36):
Night football. So David Montgomery for me would be a
sell high.

Speaker 1 (32:41):
Yeah, I agree. I don't really honestly have too much
to add on this one or push back on. I
just think he makes a lot of sense, as I
actually did sell him in a league, which you know
very recently. It's a dynasty league, so it's kind of
hard to say it was a so we in this league,
we have a ton of great running backs. I mean

(33:04):
at the time, obviously like Mary Hampton's gotten hurt now,
but we had Hampton, Bijeon, James Cook, Aaron Jones, like
you know, come back at some point. There's another running
back I'm forgetting, but we obviously had a lot of
really good running backs that we were not never going
to start David Montgomery over he was a get best
at RB five and we have no young receivers, so
we traded him for Luther Burden. You know, again, it's

(33:27):
a dynasty league and we have a lot of depth there.
So I'm not saying that's the type of trade you
should make in like a re draft league if you
have David Montgomery. But the point is like being willing
to sell, Like I'm very on board with that.

Speaker 2 (33:39):
Now, one another guy we didn't mention as a player
to maybe buy with either Kamara or Montgomery. And this
is a lot less about the longevity of his value.
But if you need wins right now for Sean White,
like is he a player that hey, he's got the
ceiling right now because he's the guy right now for
the Buccaneers. Bucky Irving, we've seen kind of mixture poor

(34:00):
about it seems like he I think he said they
said that he has like a shoulder injury now too,
so he's like all sorts of so we don't know
what he's gonna return, and in the meantime, we know
that Raehan White. He's been an army one in the past.
The Buccaneers are fun offense, their defense is injured all
in their secondary. I mean it's the same thing with
the Bucks. Their secondary is terrible, their past final defense.
They're playing a bunch of shootouts.

Speaker 1 (34:21):
What about if you're a team that isn't like I
don't need a win right away because his players on
buy and he's coming off of a bad game. But
what about Woody Marx. There was so much excitement for
him coming off of that Week four game, did not
follow it up in Week five. If you're like, listen,
I don't care about the bye week this week, I
have enough depth, or I'm five and zero or whatever.
Would you trade one of those veterans for just the

(34:42):
upside swing on Woody Marks even though he's coming off
a bad game.

Speaker 2 (34:46):
I don't think so. You know, Woody Marks, to me,
I think he's more behold because the Texas offensive line
is not changing right. That's still a big issue for
him from when it comes to a run blocking perspective.
I don't think Chubb is going to be just totally supplanted.
I think he's going to remain involved even in wind
he Mark's breakout game in Week four, general Chubb was

(35:08):
still kind of involved, so I think we take more
of a Chubb injury, and then there's always that, you know,
I don't think all Mix is coming back, but there's
always like a chance that maybe he does come back
at some point, which kind of muddles these things up
a little bit more So. I think with the Texans
right now, you're kind of just I would just hold
those players. Like you said, they're also on a buy
this week.

Speaker 1 (35:26):
Yeah, all right, let's go to our running back trios here,
buy sell or hold. I've got three trios for you.
First one buy seller Hold Javonte Williams Kiri and Williams
Brice Hall, who we already talked about a bit again.
Buy seller Hold Javonte Williams Kien and Williams Breesaw.

Speaker 2 (35:43):
So for me, I'm going to buy brees Saw because
we already talked about that, so I'm not going to
change my stance here, although I could see Brisall being
a hold and then Javonte Williams being the buye. I
just I just love what I've seen from Javonte Williams.
I think that he's all the way back. People forget,
but he's only twenty five years old. This isn't some
like old dusty running back. It's a running back that
was really productive when he was young, had it devastating injury,

(36:05):
and it's just taken him a long time to get
back to where he is now. And that's just fully
all the way back. He is the Dallas Cowboys full
bow and Boucal, even playing behind patchwork offensive line pieces
him Dak Prescott. This Cowboys offense has somehow been able
to function on a high level despite missing so many pieces,
and those pieces are going to come back. A lot
of these injuries are not season ending, so they're going

(36:27):
to get offensive line help back in future games. They're
going to get Lamb back in future games. So Javonte Williams,
I think that I'm all in on in terms of
rest of season, and I think he's definitely one of
the biggest hits of the child twenty twenty five season.
We started talking about running backs to grade well efficiency wise,
and Javante across the board is like a top ten
efficiency monster this season. So I don't think that this

(36:50):
is going to fizzle out. I think that he is
here to stay, so he would be the guide to
buy hold and then by default I would guess I
would put Hirom Williams on the cell high. I think
that the past game numbers that he had on Thursday
night are just absolutely insane. From what we've seen from Kyer,
he isn't I don't think he's ever had that much
that I think in ten targets. Just absolute bonkers game

(37:11):
for Kien Wims. But the fumbling again, like this doesn't
stop with Kyle Williams now Blake Korm also fumbled, although
I think that the technically in the box score it
was credited as a Matthew Stafford fumble, but it's pretty
clear like who fumbled the ball all it was on
the play, So it's not really about Blake Koram anymore.
They have been more open to using Blake Korm a
little bit more, and I do think just like when

(37:33):
you're trying to pick hairs between like these types of
three players, I think that Koram is the biggest threat
to these three running backs right when you're just looking
at who's behind them, you know, Jayden Blue, Miles Sanders
not really afraid of those guys. Reestallwi Gards talking about
Braylan Allen's on injury reserve, and then I think Blake Korm.
You know again, I don't think he's just he's a
planting Kien Williams. Think Kian Wims is the RB one

(37:55):
for the Rams, but Korm is the best backup of
these three that we're talking about. So I think that
he would probably be the Cell, especially after a very
spiked week two touchdowns receiving usage off the charts. I
don't think that's necessari something that sustains all year long
when you have guys like Pookin and Kun DeVante Adams.

Speaker 1 (38:13):
Next trio, JK. Dobbins, Alvin Kamara, who we also already
talked about, and Cuba Hubbard, who I wanted to include
because obviously he didn't play this week, but we just
saw this awesome game from Rico daud Oh. I wondered
if that kind of impacted how are you view Hubbard
even though he wasn't actually on the field in that one.
So Dobbins, Kamara, and Hubbard by seller hold.

Speaker 2 (38:31):
So Kamara will remain my cell here. I think Dobbins
would probably be the best hold of the players. Maybe
he would be a cell high type of player just
because we know his injury track record, and eventually think
that maybe they do try to get R. J. Harvey
a little bit more involved as the season progresses. But
if you just have JK. Dobbins and you just play

(38:52):
him every week, and you know, if he gets hurt
at some point, so be it. I don't hate that
idea either, just because dry the wave. It's sometimes tough
to project, like when exactly these running backs go down,
it's all we're all proticting, Oh, this is gonna be
the bag, but Girving gets hurt. You know, it's hard
to predict that sometimes. But I would not be surprised
if Dobbins does type of fizzle out at some point.
But right now, I think that you can kind of

(39:12):
just keep them playing in your lineup. And then Chuba Hubbard.
For me, I was kind of lukewarm on him during
draft season. I thought that Rico Dauble could have a
bigger role in this offense. And when you rush for
I mean, you rush for two hundred yards in a game,
you can't just oh, yeah, you're going back to the bench.
I don't think that's going to happen. So I think
you of a Hubbard, even as I sell low, I
think he would be the guy that I think you

(39:32):
can probably try to package away just because I don't
think that, Yes, he'll be go back to the RB
one spot for the Carolina Panthers. But is it as
obvious of a he's the number one, Rico Del's number two.
It's probably more of a one A one B type
of situation.

Speaker 1 (39:47):
Rest of season, last trio here, Tony Pollard, DeAndre Swift,
Zach Sharbonet, buy seller, hold again Pollard, Swift and Sharboney.

Speaker 2 (39:58):
Can I sell all these guys? Can I sell everybody? Who?
Do I want to buy from these? I guess I'll
buy Zach Sharbonak just because he's won Kenneth Walker away
from being an Army one, so I will buy Scharbona.
He's also probably the cheapest because he has the RB
two designation, even though he out snaps Kenneth Walker. I

(40:18):
just diet the box scors for the Seahawks running backs.
You see Ken Walker rips off like eight yards of carry.
You see Zach Sharbonay same amount of carries, three yards
carry scores, touchdowns, just so tilting, But it is what
it is, and Charbonay again, kind of like at a
cream hunt Way just finds his way into the end
zone in Seattle's been very effective running the football this year.
So I'll buy Zack Charbonne because he's cheap, and I

(40:39):
have Ken Walker on a bunch of teams. I'm not
I want getting Seal Antony Potan don this way. I'm
not picking a hole because I don't want you to
these guys in the team, so I'm selling both.

Speaker 1 (40:48):
You just consistently break through. The whole point is that
this is a difficult decision and you just go. I
choose not to make the decision.

Speaker 2 (40:55):
I guess I would hold Swift because he already he
has already had his bike and Kyle Manungai, as much
as I'd like to be a believer, he has also
been really inefficient this year. Just because the Bears run
game has been inefficient this year, I would expect Ben
Johnson to have something else cooked up coming out of
their bye week. So maybe we get a little bit
of a bump for Swift and then you sell high
on him. Whereas Pollard, I think it's trending in the

(41:17):
wrong direction. I think we're going to see more of
Taji Spears this week. They've already talked about that. Kyle
and HNT talked about how yes, it was his first
game back, so we're going to see Taju Spears get
more involved. And actually on the broadcast they mentioned that
cam Ward when he was talking about Taji Spears coming back,
he mentioned to the production team Superman's back when talking
about Taji Spears. So cam Ward's a big fan of
Tase Spears, and I think that you're going to see

(41:39):
more of a split backfield upcoming in week six.

Speaker 1 (41:43):
You're like Lucille Bluth in Arrested Development when I ask
some of these and you're just like, I don't understand
the question and I won't respond to it, refused to
play the game. Don't forget about our weekly trade live
stream on our YouTube channel, where you can come and
ask your specific fantasy trade questions. Will be with you
every Wednesday at three pm Eastern. For those listening on
the podcast, just go to YouTube dot com Slash Fantasy Pros,

(42:04):
subscribe and click the bell to be notified of all
of our weekly live streams. Be sure to check out
Part two when it drops, either on YouTube or wherever
you get your podcasts on audio. That'll be, like I said,
diving into wide receivers and then a bit of quarterback
and tight end talk as well. For ericson, I'm Ryan Warmley.
Thanks for tuning in. We'll see you next time. Thanks
for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football podcast. If

(42:25):
you love the show, the best freeway to support us
is by leaving a positive review on Apple podcasts at
Fantasypros dot com, slash review, or on Spotify. Follow us
on x, Instagram and TikTok at Fantasy Pros, and subscribe
to our YouTube channel at YouTube dot com slash Fantasy
Pros

All Episodes

Episode Transcript

Hosts And Creators

Andrew Erickson

Joe Pisapia

Derek Brown

Thor Nystrom

Ryan Wormeli

Pat Fitzmaurice

Matthew Freedman

Popular Podcasts

My Favorite Murder with Karen Kilgariff and Georgia Hardstark

24/7 News: The Latest

Dateline NBC

.css-15opob5{left:0;position:absolute;top:0.8rem;} All Episodes

.css-14f5ked{margin:0;word-break:break-word;display:-webkit-box;-webkit-box-orient:vertical;box-orient:vertical;-webkit-line-clamp:2;overflow:hidden;}Week 6 Buy Low + Sell High Running Back Targets (Ep. 1758)