Week 7 Buy Low + Sell High Running Back Targets (Ep. 1772)

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Hello everybody, Welcome into the Fantasy Pros Football Podcast. I'm
Ryan Warmley, joined as I am every Tuesday morning, although
it's bordering on Tuesday afternoon. We are recording this a
little later in the day than usual. Thanks for the
flexibility there. Ericson, it is Andrew Erickson. How you doing here?
Six weeks into the fantasy season?

Speaker 2 (00:16):
Already do an absolutely fantastic my name of Patriots four
and two are a top the AFC East's talking to
I think was Parol and one of the betting shows
earlier today. But all is right in the world the
AFC East once again. The Patriots are on top, Jets
Dolphins on the bottom. They're both terrible.

Speaker 3 (00:33):
So film film, film, very very good. Heading into week seven.

Speaker 1 (00:37):
Yeah, well we are going to talk about some Monday
night football reaction here. We had another doubleheader. By the way,
there's yet another doubleheader next week. Ericson, I can't believe it.
I'm so tired of these. I don't like them at all.
But we're going to do a recap there in lieu
of our kind of macro level trade strategy advice is
because it gets to be too overcrowded in these episodes,

(00:57):
where we have multiple Monday night games. The reason the
Patriots are in first place is because in the first
of these Monday night games, the Bills lost, and they
lost in pretty convincing fashion. Honestly, the Falcons won twenty
four to fourteen. It didn't even really feel all that
close watching the game. Falcons really kind of pantsed the Bills.
This game was in Atlanta, but it continues a trend

(01:19):
for Buffalo where it took a fourth quarter miracle to
beat the Ravens in Week one. They didn't look that
dominant against the Saints. They obviously have now lost two
in a row against the Patriots and the Falcons. I
don't know who the who the best team in football
or the AFC is It's probably the Chiefs, which is
annoying because I felt like this is a chance to
finally bury them. And of course Burrows hurt, Lamar's hurt.

(01:40):
So's the Ravens defense. The Bills are underperforming. We're just
leaving another wide open runway for the Chiefs. I digress.
Let's talk about this Bill's Falcons game on the Falcons side, Like,
I don't even really know what you say. Bjon Robinson,
insane monster great game. Drake London insane monster, great game.
I mean those two hadn't know what the exact number is,

(02:00):
but it must have been eighty five percent of the
yards in this game for the Falcons, it was just
all Bijon in all London. Kyle Pitts's three catches for
eighteen yards. Algier did get a touchout al here just
looks good like if he had the opportunity. I mean,
I only had three point two yards per carry, but
just watching him, like if Bijon wasn't in this backfield,
I'd be so excited about it all year. But yeah,
this is this is the Bijon and London show. Pennix

(02:23):
I thought, looked better than he has at times earlier
in the season. And then on the Bill's side, James
Cook does not get in the end zone seventeen attempts
eighty seven yards. Ray Davis does catch a long not long,
but you know, a catch and run sixteen yard touchdown
pass at one point, so theoretically that could have gone
to Cook, it did not. Khalil Shakir just three for
thirty three. I mean, Josh Allen had two interceptions just

(02:45):
through four hundred and eighty yards he did have two
touchdowns to Davis and Knox, but Allen was pretty bad
in this In this game, Ericson, I assume you would
agree with me that there's really not much to take
away long term here. It was kind of like the
stars showed out outside of Allen and we don't really
have long term concerned about Alan.

Speaker 2 (03:01):
Yeah, you know, the Falcons players that you were starting
got it done. And it was a reminder of why
I wanted to draft Drake London so aggressively this offseason.
The last two games basically since the Falcons fired their
wide receiver coach, Drake London has just been an absolute monster.
So Darnold Mooney didn't play in this game. Rayvey McLeod,
the receiver three for the Falcons, was a healthy scratch,

(03:23):
so he also did not play in this game either,
So you were expecting it to be London. Casey Washington
is the other receiver, and then Kyle Pitts. I mean
this was a good spot for him too, Like there
was no Mooney and he laid it.

Speaker 1 (03:33):
Turned like the worst game of the season for him.

Speaker 2 (03:36):
Yeah, it was a bad game for Kyle Pitts and
it just looked bad too, like one of his catches
he like fell down, So just more inconsistency from Kyle Pits.
I think that he's a streaming tight end. I don't
know if he's in the circle of trust when it
comes to tight ends. I will cite with the Falcons
long term, Michael Pennix. If you need a quarterback to stream,
the Falcons are a really good schedule rest of the season.

(03:57):
Actually have this is per the Fantasy Pro Strength of
sked tool, the number one schedule for fantasy quarterbacks belongs
to the Atlanta Falcons. So, Josh Allen on a bye week,
you need a quarterback, Michael Penix could be your answer,
maybe this week, or if you're looking for quarterback long term,
maybe you have a justin fields problem. Michael Penis basically
could be an answer for your quarterback problems. On the

(04:17):
Bill's side, Josh Palmer got hurt in this game on
his second catch. During the broadcast, they talked about, hey,
Joe Brady wants to get Josh Palmer more involved. So
I'm thinking, all right, baby, here we go fifth your breakout.
It's finally happening. He catches a monster passed I think
on the first drive, but it gets hurt on his
second catch, so you're expecting, like guys like Ken Coleman
and Colois Security kind of step up. Dalton Kin Kate

(04:38):
also didn't play in this game. Dawson Knox caught a
touchdown on the opening drive, which is basically one of
the only good things that the Bills offense did. Bills
are on a bye week, as I mentioned, so some
of those guys will be coming back. But I mean
Kean Coleman, I think to me, is someone that they
need just to get more out of, like if this
Bill's offense is going to take that next step. Now,
he does have six plus targeting back to back weeks.
He's a twenty three percent target chair, which lead a

(05:00):
team in the last two weeks. So it's kind of
like underlying encouragement for Kean Coleman. But obviously the box
score stats haven't really been there. He hasn't ripped out
the big plays or had as many touchdowns as we'd
be like, so I think he could get dropped during
the bye week. And I think he's kind of like
a sneaky kind of stash just to kind of see
how things shake out, just because no one's really established
himself as like the true alpha in this Bill's passing game.

(05:22):
So those are some of my thoughts from that Bills.
And also like, please Tie Johnson just enough of this
playing him over James, Please just get him on the field.

Speaker 3 (05:30):
Man.

Speaker 2 (05:31):
He's like, they pay this guy all this money and
they're like, no, we're gonna use Tid Johnson instead. I
get they like him in the pass catching role, but
James Cook can catch passes too, man, just get him
on the field.

Speaker 1 (05:41):
Just two teams on buy this upcoming week seven? It
is the Ravens and Bills. And the Ravens have been disappointing,
but those are the two best offenses going into the
start of the season. So you know a lot of
big name players on there that will be on your
bench even with only two teams on by this week
with it being Buffalo and Baltimore. Let's look at the
other Monday night game. The Bears win and the last

(06:01):
second on a field goal twenty five to twenty four.
Caleb Williams two hundred and fifty two yards, a touchdown,
no picks, Jane Daniels two hundred and eleven yards, three
touchdowns and one pick. As far as the quarterbacks who
were both obviously in their second year, went back to
back in the draft last year. Going head to head
again here the running backs. DeAndre Swift looked good. I mean,

(06:22):
fourteen carries, one hundred and eight yards and like passing
the eye test, certainly I thought looked really good. Of course,
he also had, you know, the most receiving yards on
the team, led by that fifty five yard catch and
run for the touchdown. He ended up with sixty seven
yards in the receiving game Swift did. Luther Burden had
four targets, four catches, fifty one yards. He had the
most yards of anybody on the Bears besides Swift. Notable

(06:44):
as a rookie coming out of the bye week, you
tend to see that a lot, and that was something
we saw with Burden here. DJ Moore, did you see,
by the way, like what the fallout was from him
going to the hot I was surprised to see that
he was staying overnight in the DC area at a
local hospital. It seemed like it was more of a
precaution than anything else. But I didn't unless I just

(07:05):
missed it this morning. I didn't see like a real
follow up to what that was in regards to or
what the kind of long term thing would be there,
So worth noting just to keep an eye on that
roma dune day just to catches thirty two yards. He
did have a touchdown that was called back by a
horrific illegal formation penalty. So that was a bummer for
me because I.

Speaker 3 (07:22):
Was faced for the refs.

Speaker 1 (07:24):
Horrible week for the refs. I mean it was abominable
week for the rest I thought there was you know,
there was a lot of this week ericson was a
lot of missed or I would say incorrect offensive pass
interference calls. There were so many calls this week where
they either missed an egregious one or they they called
it and there was nothing there taking points off the
board for our fantasy players. So that was that was

(07:47):
another frustrated.

Speaker 2 (07:48):
Guy as get a point your fantasy Yes, like no,
like I deserved that catch.

Speaker 3 (07:54):
If I wasn't interfere with give me a.

Speaker 1 (07:56):
Point, Yeah, I wouldn't hate it. So that that was
that was on the bare side of things. Jacroi krossky
Merritt seventeen carries, sixty one yards. He had was just
credited for one fumble right because the other one went
to Jane Daniels was credited for two.

Speaker 2 (08:10):
It was kind of hard to like. It was kind
of like it was a bad snap, bad exchange.

Speaker 1 (08:14):
It wasn't really Bill's fault, but I don't remember I
don't recall checking who was actually credited to, so it
might have been him.

Speaker 2 (08:20):
Actually, Yeah, either way, it's not great that Bill has
fumbled back to back games, but they're not going away
from him. I mean, Chris Rodriguez played one snap, Jeremy
Nichols had two carries. Now at Rodriguez ender the game
kind of banged up, so I wasn't hisiting him to
have a massive role. But Bill still clearly their their
best running back. In his schedule rest of season is
number one in the Strength of Schedule tool for Fantasy pros.

(08:42):
So you got to hold him and he continues to
be a bye for me.

Speaker 4 (08:47):
Yeah.

Speaker 1 (08:48):
Is there anything here in the receiving game with the
Commanders in terms of like, even with McLaurin out, Deebo
didn't really do much. It was Chris Moore had a touchdown.
It was a nice catch. Luke McCaffrey continues to get
inexplicable open one time a game you know zach Ertz
had his usual six yard touchdown that he seems to
always find anything here in the passing game, Like, are

(09:08):
you interested in anybody besides Deebo and of course McLaurin
once he's back.

Speaker 2 (09:13):
No, not really, I mean McCaffrey. He's scoring on a
bunch of longer touchdown plays, which isn't really super sustainable
because he's not seeing like this massive route share in
the Commander's passing game. I think Deebo's kind of doing
what he typically does where he comes out first month
on fire, gets banged up, and then you start to
see the production kind of tail off here. So I

(09:34):
know that we talked about him on the show as
like a Cell High candidate, and now this is kind
of like the reason why, because you get concerned about
what happens when he does get banged up and Terry
mclaurran's going to be coming back soon. They thought that
he had a chance to play this week. Obviously that
did not happen. So I think that there's a good
chance he plays next week against the Dallas Cowboys, which
I mean, if you can get mclauran back, like that's
a that's an awesome matchup for him, So you're still

(09:56):
going to go back to Debo. And he did enter
this game like very questionable, so he may have been
more hurt than was being led on, but these injuries
happened with him. So just a reminder for guys if
you're holding onto Debo that this production it was going
may may not or may tail off at some point.

Speaker 1 (10:12):
I kind of blew past the Chicago side of things.
Did you have any thoughts on that? I mean, again,
like Swift looked really good, everybody else kind of you know,
largely under producing, I guess because I mean Luthor Burden,
I guess I should also, you know, mentioned again again
coming out of the bye week. So guys like Swift
and Burden, what do you think about them?

Speaker 2 (10:31):
Yeah, Swift definitely makes me look really bad for my
cell on him a couple of weeks back, just because
he came out of the gates after the bye week.
The Bears run game entirely looked much much better. They
were running the ball much more effectively, getting Swift out
in space. So if actually had the same amount of
carries as he did the week before, and the yardage
is like totally on opposite.

Speaker 3 (10:50):
End of the spectrum like it was like, is this
the same running game?

Speaker 2 (10:54):
So I think if you have Swift, I still think
that he is kind of maxed out as that fantasy
or too. But at the same time, you look at
the upcoming schedule for the Bears and it's Saints, Ravens, Bengals, Giants.
It's a really good run for the running back. So
I do like holding Swift for now if you still

(11:14):
have him on your roster. I still like Kyle Mnungai
as a stash ad that he looked a little bit
better too, and he played a decent amount of snaps
in this game. He saw a red zone carry. So
I think Luther Burdon, though, is the highlight because he's
available on waivers and you can still add him. He
played twenty two percent of the snaps, but you said
like very productive four catches, which led the team fifty
one yards on four targets. He had a season high

(11:37):
and route participation forty one percent thirty one percent target
rate Perrett Run.

Speaker 3 (11:41):
And I also thought.

Speaker 2 (11:41):
Olemedi's akias looked really bad in this game, like he
had multiple drops. So when Ben Johnson and the team
goes back to review the film of this game, I
think it's going to be clear that, hey, we need
to get Burded more involved in this offense. He needs
to be playing more snaps in this offense. We need
to get us of all Amy's a kias on the
field and more of Luther Burton. And also if there's

(12:04):
a chance that this DJ Moore thing is long term,
again we don't have all the details about, you know,
why he was being kept overnight in the hospital, but
if he has like some type of injury, that would
obviously be a boost for Luther Burton to see more
playing time.

Speaker 1 (12:17):
I didn't realize that I beat you in the Dynasty
League that we're in together thanks to DeAndre Swift. I
was just looking now because I thought I thought Bijon
his big game for you was gonna kind of be
the nail in the coffin for me. But I was like,
I'll go check to you with that because I have
a dudnes day And I was like, oh, well, when
that touchdown came off the board like it was, I
was cooked. But I did actually pull it out thanks
to that Swift fifty five year touchdown.

Speaker 2 (12:38):
So Swift Swift's are really making me eat it for
listening to the cell and more ways than one.

Speaker 1 (12:44):
So yeah, revenge game for him.

Speaker 3 (12:45):
Tapercat Tapper Captain Swift to beat me. So yeah, there
you go.

Speaker 1 (12:50):
All right, let's get into our running backs to buy
here as he jump into the meat of the show,
who is your first running back to buy?

Speaker 2 (12:57):
Ericson My first running back to buy is Javonte Williams
for the Dallas Cowboys. So on the Week six ranking show,
Fitz and I were talking about Javonte with Welsh and
I was all ready to teae him up top five
running back this week against Caroline Panthers, and Fitz pulled
some cold water on it, saying, man, I don't know.
The Panthers run defense was pretty decent against eight Chan

(13:18):
two weeks ago, and their Panthers defense showed up again.
So they've held Davon A Chan and Jomonte Williams to
less than two point two yards per carrying back to
back weeks. They give it up fifty rushing yards in
the last two weeks, which is kind of insane. They
should give fifty rushing yards like and a half let
alone in two games total. So he's had a bad game,

(13:39):
but this is really his first really bad game all
year long, and everything else is pointing to there's no
issues with Javonte Williams eighty five percent of snaps, six
red zone opportunities, but he didn't score. He had eighteen touches,
he had eight targets, and Jaydon Blue only played five
offensive snaps after Miles Sanders was placed on injury preserves.
So Jadan Blue, I don't think is ever going to

(14:00):
push Javonte for belcow usage. That's not really what Blue
profile as he's more of a complimentary piece, pass catcher
out of the backfield, explosive playmaker. So I think even
if he does see more involvement, I think Javonte is
still going to be the clear cut bellcou in this
offense that is going to get better as the season
goes on. They're going to get Lamb back, They're going

(14:22):
to get offensive line pieces back. So I want to
be buying Javonte Williams. I like the schedule overall, coming
up Commanders at the Broncos revenge game for Javonte Williams again,
Candon Nor of these with some of these running backs,
and then home against the Arizona Cardinals before Week ten.
By week so Williams. I think he's been fantastic this
year seventh and rushing success rate, and I think that

(14:45):
what's flying under the raidar with Lamb returning is he
is the tie that lifts all boats. And if him
being in the offense just creates more scoring opportunities for
Dallas their defense continues to be bad, well, that means
Javonte Williams is going to get a ton of opportunities
to find the end zone, catch passes out of the back,
and run for twenty yards. So I want to buy
Javonte Willams for And maybe there's some managers that are
still like not convinced, like, hey, is this still like

(15:07):
is this legit? I think he is legit, So I
want to buy him.

Speaker 4 (15:11):
Yeah.

Speaker 1 (15:12):
I mean this is the outlier so far this season, right,
like everything else. His worst finish in half PPR scoring
prior to Week six was RB twenty five, and even
that looked like the outlier because besides that, it's he's
never been lower than RB fourteen this season. I mean,
he's been really consistent. He's getting between seventeen to twenty
five opportunities every game between the targets and the attempts

(15:35):
he scored a touchdown in four out of six weeks.
Now this is just his second week not scoring and
that Commander's game next week. Look what they just gave
up to DeAndre Swift too. We had been a little
down on like, and now we get to see Javonte
Williams go against it and Lamb might be back this week.
They were talking about it as a possibility, So we'll see.
But yeah, Like, there is a small part of me

(15:58):
Ericson who looks at Javonte Williams and says, uh, you know,
because we talked about him as sort of a version
of this year's JK Dobbins. We were talking during draft
season in terms of a guy who had had this
bad injury history and but was going to have this
great opportunity in an offense because nobody else is going
to compete for touches and it was an offense that

(16:19):
we believed in. It's really panned out that way. Dobbins
did fall off eventually last year from what you have described,
and I would agree with you on this, but I
just want to give you the chance to clarify Javonte
has looked good enough that we're not expecting a fall
off right there. This isn't like, oh like, because he's
looked really good, wait for the next good game and sell.
This just seems legitimate, right.

Speaker 3 (16:41):
Yes, I think that's legitimate.

Speaker 2 (16:43):
And I think the difference between Williams and Dobbins was
Dobbins was getting injured all the time in different ways.
Like it wasn't just one injury that was kind of
plaguing Dobbins, where Davonte it was just one really groosome
injury and it's just taken three years for him to
get back to okay. This is what he was like
before he got injured. Again, He's still a relatively he's
only twenty five years old, so he's a relatively young

(17:03):
running back. And it just I mean, last year he
didn't miss really any games from being hurt. He just
wasn't efficient last season because he wasn't recovered fully from
his knee injuries. So I think that he is all
the way back and you want pieces of this Dallas offense,
and right now again after a bad game, I think
this is an opportunity to try to swoop in and
maybe scoop up Williams on a discount.

Speaker 1 (17:25):
Is he a top twelve running back for your rest
of the season is he isn't consensus? He's OURB twelve
for US of season definitely. Yeah, all right, who's your
other running back to buy?

Speaker 2 (17:34):
So I finally know what to do with isaiab Checko
and I want to buy isaiab Checko, And that's because
a couple few reasons for it. He looked really good
in the last game that the Chiefs played, and the
way that he's being used lately is the Chiefs are
kind of showing their cards a little bit with how
they want this back for to be deployed. They are

(17:56):
trying to kind of ease out of the Cream Hunt
experience and race more of Isaiah Pacheco. So in Week
six seventy seven percent snapshare, season high in carries with twelve,
and this was after he had a season highd snaps
in Week five, So they're continue to play him more
on offense. And this was per next gen stat So
against the Lions, he had four rushes of fifteen plus yards.

(18:18):
He had four combined rushes of that criteria leading up
to Week six, So the explosiveness is starting to kind
of appear with Pacheco when he's on the field. He
had more targets than Hunt. In this past week, he
had three targets. Pershard Smith also had four targets, but
that's the only way that he was used the rookie
running back. But most importantly, he had four red zone

(18:40):
carries to Hunts one. So we're starting to see Pacheco
kind of carve out a larger red zone role, which
has kind of been Kareem Hunt's calling card. Which is
one of the reasons why Pacheco has been really hard
to trust is because, oh, Hunt's always going to vulture
the touchdown. I don't think that's going to be the
case moving forward here. I think they recognized Pacheco is
the guy that has the most juice, and now they're
going to use him more in the red zone. The

(19:01):
pass catching is still kind of iffy because the Britshart
Smith is a receiver, so I'm not super bowlish on
that necessarily. But if the Chiefs offense turns back to
a fantasy football wagon again, Rashie Rice is coming back.
If this offense is cooking a top five fantasy offense,
then Pachecko is going to benefit. And for how low
the view of Pacheco is, should I drop Pachecko. We've

(19:23):
going good questions about this all season long, and up
to this point, I didn't really know what to do
with him because, like, I don't know many he plays
on the Chiefs, Like that's like the one thing that
you could hold on to. So I think that he
is valued by his manager as basically nothing. So I
think you can get him for basically really really cheap,
and I want pieces of the chief offense. If Rice

(19:44):
comes back and we get the Chiefs of Old and
they're scoring thirty plus points every single week, Pacheco is
going to benefit one way or another if he's the
lead running back, which the last two weeks that has
been the case. So top ten schedule rest of season
for the Kansas City Chiefs. I want to buy Pachecko
on the dirt cheap because I don't think the manager
that has him is going to value nearly as highly
as what his actual outlook will be.

Speaker 1 (20:05):
Yeah, what do you think it would cost to get Pachecko?
Because I mean, like his weekly finish at the position
in half FIFPR scoring RB forty four, forty nine, forty three,
twenty four to thirty one thirty four, he's been inside
the top thirty once and it was only as high
as RB twenty four, And that was just the week
he caught a touchdown pass. And again he caught a
touchdown pass and he still finished just barely inside the
top twenty four running backs. Like he's only been double

(20:28):
digits and HALFVPR scoring once this season. He should be cheap,
is basically the point I'm agreeing with you on. So
what do you think it would cost to get him, specifically.

Speaker 2 (20:37):
Tony Pollard that gets it done?

Speaker 4 (20:39):
Do?

Speaker 2 (20:39):
I mean, do want ton to Ballard anymore? I particularly don't.
He's something Titans just from a game script perspective, Who's
going to score more touchdowns the rest of the way
the Titans or not the Titans versus Chiefs, that's obvious.
But Pachecko or Tony Pollard probably just bet on Pachecko
being the guy. So I think Pollard is someone that
you could trade Shacoby Myers. He's been a ghost for

(21:01):
the Raiders as a receiver. Maybe he's another option for
a team that needs a wide receiver, so or even
like a backup tight end. Right if you have another
tight end that you're not using, flip them for a
player like Isaiah pa Checko. So this is a come
of the options I was thinking about.

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Speaker 1 (22:24):
Eric Soon, who's your first running back? To sell?

Speaker 3 (22:27):
I really wanted to.

Speaker 2 (22:27):
Put this guy on the show last week, but I
got cold feet because I was thinking, man, he's playing
in Giants. It's too good of a smash spot for him.
And then he rushed for tea rush for fifty eight
yards on twelve carries.

Speaker 3 (22:41):
It gets the New York Giants. So I'm talking about
Saquon Barkley.

Speaker 1 (22:44):
I'm gonna say I see the meme from the wire
price of the brick going up, This is the price
the brick going down. Price of the bark going down.

Speaker 2 (22:51):
It has not been a good year for Saquon Barkley.
He has not been the same guy as last year.
The Eagle's offensive line has regressed immensely. Whether that's because
of injuries or just the new offensive coordinator, it's just
the Eagles offense is not functioning at as high a
level now. The biggest concern with Barkley was just I think,
at least for myself, was he had so many touches
last year. Is he gonna be able to stay healthy? So,

(23:14):
I mean, he's been healthy for the most of the season.
I know he had a knee injury that he was
dealing with before the Giants game. Maybe that's something that's
kind of under the radar that's still bothering him. But
the production has really not been there for Saquon. He
is PFF sixth lowest grade running back this season. So yes,
the schedule has been tough, but things should have gotten
better against the Giants, like that's why I was so

(23:34):
underwhelmed because it was a smash spot for him. Now
this week it's the Minnesota Vikings again, another tough defense.
Brian Flores is always tough on opposing offense, it's on
the road. I think cecra Barkley still has enough name
brand cache that you can still get a lot for
him in a trade. So I think I'm done with Saquon.
The Eagles offense is just really hard to trust right now,

(23:57):
So I'm looking to put him on the trade block
in move him.

Speaker 1 (24:01):
Where's the rest of the season for you?

Speaker 3 (24:03):
He's not in my top five running backs?

Speaker 1 (24:05):
So is he in your top ten?

Speaker 3 (24:08):
I think he's still in the top ten.

Speaker 2 (24:10):
Yeah, Because, like especially with rest season rankings, you're still
trying to capture the trade market value on a certain player.
So even if I individually feel that, oh well, he
should be, you know, absolutely buried, I don't necessarily want
his trade value to be of that of a player
that's just absolutely buried, because he is still, say one Barkley.
It's not like he's never gonna He's not gonna be useless.

(24:30):
But I think that I'd rather find other avenues of
running back production.

Speaker 1 (24:37):
Like I mean, would you rather Saquan or Derrick Henry?

Speaker 2 (24:42):
I kind of like valuing all on Dereck Henry. I
think I think in a deal you could probably do
sick on Barkley to get Dereck Henry plus, right, wouldn't
that be the best way to approach it.

Speaker 1 (24:52):
I don't think you'd get a lot plus, but I
think I do think you would get a little plus
a little plus.

Speaker 2 (24:57):
But when I say a little, you could do again,
this is another player we'll talk about. But could you
do say from Barkley for Derrick Henry and Ricky Pearsol.

Speaker 1 (25:08):
Maybe I guess it depends on the manager. I'm not
that I'm not as excited about Derek henry rest season
as other people seem to be. I am. I am
more apprehensive about the Ravens offense. And just look what
Lamar will look. I know we're all assuming he's gonna
be back in week eight, and I think that probably
will happen, But I don't know if he's going to
look like MVP Lamar when he's back, Like if he's

(25:30):
not mobile because hamstrings, Like they don't want to push it,
they don't want to risk it when they're I mean,
I know they're in desperation, but and they're still viewing
this as not a lost season, but eventually, if they
continue to lose, it will be a lost season. Like
how much are they going to run Lamar in that case,
Like how much is he going to actually open things
up for Henry? I get nervous about that. So he's

(25:50):
an interesting piece, Like I would truthfully be willing to
sell on both Saquon and Henry right now, which is
why I threw him out there. What about somebody like
like Saquon or or Genty? Who would you rather have?

Speaker 2 (26:00):
Gent Well? I like Genty Moore during draft season. I
know that it started out kind of cold for Rash
and Genty, but he's been getting it going the last
couple of weeks. The Raiders have no other choice but
to kind of force him the ball. He is their
entire offense. That's the only thing that's working. And the Raiders,
as weird as it sounds, have one of the best
schedules rest of season for fantasy running backs, and that's

(26:21):
according to the Strength of Schedule tools. So also under
the radar, Dylan Lowby, the running back for the Raiders.
He got hurt in the last game and you saw
Genti's route participation skyrocket, so that was kind of annoying
where he wasn't playing in two minute drills. I think
that they're ready to just unleash the playbook with him,
and hey, we're not holding back. He's running all the routes,
playing all the snaps, getting all the carries, especially with

(26:43):
brock Bowers out. So yes, I definitely would rather have
gend Let.

Speaker 1 (26:47):
Me give you one more. You wouldn't you would? You
could probably get more than this. But if the manager
was holding firm, digging their heels in the sand, they
were unwilling to give you any more? Would you trade
Saquon Barkley for just Javonte Williams? Right up?

Speaker 3 (27:03):
I think so?

Speaker 2 (27:04):
Yeah, Okay, I'm a believer in Javante. I just love
what I've seen this year from him.

Speaker 1 (27:10):
And I know, imagine telling yourself that from August that
it's not that is going to stay healthy. And before
we even get to week seven, you're gonna be trading
him away for Javonte Williams. Well, who's your Yeah, who's
your other running back to sell?

Speaker 2 (27:28):
Ready to be cold takes exposed here? Yeah, you have
the running back I want to sell. I mentioned him
earlier talking about who you can try to use to
get Isaiah Bachecko on the cheap is Tony Pollard. I've
mentioned him on the show before as they sell. And I
think we talked about him as cell last year just
because when Tajy Spears is healthy in this in this lineup,
Pollard's production, his snaps, his touches, they all just declined

(27:52):
dramatically last week, just ten carries for thirty four yards
against a underrated Raiders defense. Spears was more effective as
a rusher. He have a six point two yards per carry,
had five carries for thirty one yards. Pollard had just
a twenty percent rushing success rate. Spears has taken over
the pass catching role. If the Titans are playing with
a negative game script, which they're most likely going to
be as a bad team the rest of the season,

(28:14):
you think, well, that means Spears is going to be
playing more than Tony Pollard is. Again, it took one
week and Spears already outsnapped Tony Poller fifty nine to
forty three percent. Pollard's routes dipped to twenty five percent
of the dropbacks. So he's been to sell for me
in every article I've written in the last couple of weeks.
So hopefully you guys, he's already off your roster. But

(28:37):
if you're still stuck with them, I think that you
can still move him for something like and as I
have a checko who I just am much more optimistic
about their rest of season outlook. He's a bottom five
scheduled rest of season for running backs for the Tony Pollard.
They just fired their head coach and it's a tough
matchupa with the Patriots this week. So Tony Pollard is
just trending in the complete wrong direction. And because there
is a new head coach, maybe there's some semblance of oh,

(28:59):
maybe they can and kind of turned around with Tony Pollard.
But it could also go in the opposite direction where
maybe they say, well, let's just ride Taja Spears, let's
do something like that. So just a lot of different
outcomes with Pollard and this new coaching staff, And for
the most part, I'm just not optimistic that it's going
to change for him. So trade him away, package him
with something else to try to move up for one

(29:20):
of these other players to target, or even take a
risk on someone that's injured right now, and move Tony Pollard.

Speaker 1 (29:27):
It's not that difficult to make the case for guys
as by lows and sell highs. I think one of
the most valuable skill sets you can have in fantasy
is knowing when to buy high and sell low, And that,
to me is much it's rarer to be good at that,
and it's much more valuable to be good at that
than to know you know the bilos and sell highs

(29:49):
more of the standard stuff. This is a sell low like.
This isn't like sell Tony po This is like going
out of business sale on Tony Pollard, Like it's a
fire sale. I am willing to sell him peanuts. Like
if you can get somebody like put check out, I
think that's great, But like I wouldn't even need that.
I would just get something that you basically somebody that
you're not thinking about to immediately drop. To me, that's

(30:10):
a win over over powered rest of the season. I really
strongly agree with you on this one, to the point
where I don't really even have much more to add.
I think it's clear what direction this backfield is going.
I think it's clear what direction this team is going.
Like obviously they fired Callahan, Like this is just not
It's not a situation I want to be involved in.
So if you can convince somebody to say, well listen,

(30:32):
like the ceiling is not that high, but at least
there's a floor here. I think that's wrong, but try
and convince somebody of that and sell them is somebody
who is maybe in desperate need at the position due
to injuries or whatever, and just needs a warm body dip,
get powered off your team. Let's be honest, Shopping not
my thing. I can't stand walking through aisle after aisle,

(30:53):
trying to figure out what will fit, what I'll look
good in, changing in those tiny dressing rooms, just all
of it. And that's without even getting into my shall
we say, somewhat lacking sense of fashion. Honestly, I'd rather
someone just tell me what to wear. If you're tired
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slash Fantasy Pros. Let's go to buyseller Hold Here, Eric say,

(31:59):
We've got three running back trios. First one for you,
Woody Marx coming off the bye week, Rico Daudell coming
off a couple of amazing weeks, and DeAndre Swift also
coming off a great week. So buy seller Hold Woody Marks,
Rico Daudll, DeAndre.

Speaker 2 (32:11):
Swift So talked about Swift when we did the Mona
Net recap.

Speaker 3 (32:15):
He would be a hole for me.

Speaker 2 (32:16):
The Bears have a really good schedule coming up for
their running backs, and he looked improved out of the
bye week. I was very impressed with what Ben Johnson
was able to do with the run game, So Swift
would be the hole for me. Marks versus Doubt, I
think is really interesting. I think Marx would probably be
the guy that I would sell, and that's because I
think that you can get a strong return for him.

(32:38):
I don't think the Texans offensive line is still fixed,
and I don't think that they're going to magically just
oh all these wide open running lanes. Marx still has
a Nick Chubb problem. Like Nick Chubb, I don't think
is going to be going away in any capacity. And
we still don't really know what the ceiling case with
Woody Marx is. We've seen the ceiling case fro Rico
Dado the last two weeks. What if tu a Hubbard?

(32:59):
Never what if tuw a hub It gets reinjured. I
don't want to give that away. And it's funny they've
been asking Canalis about well as Rico Dowdle the RB
one in this offense, and he's always like, we'll see right,
So he's been noncommittal. Now the panther's running. It's interesting
if you look at rushing success rate this season, the
top two guys in the top four are Rico Dawdell

(33:20):
and Chewba Hubber. You know who is nowhere near the
top of that anyone on the Houston Texans. So I
get the idea of Woody marks he could take over
this backfield, But I just think the ceiling is in Carolina,
which is what we've seen the last couple of weeks.
So even though it looks murkier with Cuba Hubbard potentially
coming back, I've seen the ceiling from Rico Daddle. He's

(33:41):
shown that he can be in RB one and that's
why I want to have my roster rest of season.
Even though it may appear that Woody Marks has a
easier path to the touches, being the lead back in
the Texans offense isn't necessarily the greatest thing to have.
I know he had that one good week earlier in
the year, but I mean against the Ravens, he did nothing.
So I'm gonna buy we go Dowdele and then I

(34:03):
would probably sell what he Marks.

Speaker 1 (34:05):
I would rather sell Dowdell to somebody who is thinking
about him the way you are. And the main reason
isn't even Cheba Hubbard. It's that these games came against
Miami and Dallas, and like he did what he did
what a good player is supposed to do. He took
advantage of as great and enticing a matchup as you
can have. But he's not facing Miami in Dallas the

(34:27):
rest of the season, and that I want to see
how he does against a more reasonable run defense than
those two teams. I'd rather buy Swift than Dowdell, honestly,
and and just hope that the Swift manager still views
him as more of a floor not a ceiling. And
I would take that swing on Swift before I would

(34:49):
on Doubell. Of those three, next trio here Jalen Warren,
Chase Brown, David Montgomery. Again, that's Warren, Brown, and Monkum A.

Speaker 2 (35:01):
Bunch of running backs I want to mostly sell. So
I love these ones. Kalen Warren's going to be the
hold for me, you just gotta.

Speaker 3 (35:10):
He's playing the Bengals this.

Speaker 2 (35:11):
Week, Like last week, was the brutal match up against
the Cleveland Brown so he underwhelmed.

Speaker 3 (35:16):
Then the committee was kind of annoying.

Speaker 2 (35:18):
Both Kenneth Gainwell and Caleb Johnson were actually getting involved,
and that was before the game was out of hand.
But this week you got to hold Jalen Warren and
then you can consider flipping him after he faces the
Cincinnati Bengals. So he would be the hold for me.
Chase Brown is probably the cell. I was not encouraged
by what I saw from the run game. And Chase

(35:40):
Brown's usage in Joe Flacco's first start that was actually
it's funny, I was wrong about everything when it came
to Joe Flaco. Jamar Chase was fine, to Higgins was
fine for the most part, and then Chase Brown got
like no targets, which is the one thing I felt
like I was most confident that Joe Flacca would do
was pepper his running back with targets, and that wasn't
the case. In fact, like Samaji p Ryan and Chase
Brown had almost like a sixty to forty split as

(36:01):
much if you got the first carry in the game.
And Brown's efficiency was a little bit better as a rusher,
but I mean he's bottom five in the NFL and
rushing success rate this season. The Belca usage has not
been there the last two weeks for Chase Brown, and
he's not been ripping off these explosive plays. So I
think that you have to looked at selling Chase Brown
because I think that so much of his appeal was

(36:24):
just playing in a high powered offense. And even with
Joe Flacco maybe being an upgrade over Jake Browning's still
not the same, nearly as high as the ceiling as
it once was when it was Joe Burrow as the quarterback.
So Chase Brown would be the cell for me, and
the Dave Montgomery would be the I guess, by default,
the buye. He still has a high ceiling in case
there's Junior Gibbs type of injury now obviously when Montgomery

(36:46):
and Gibbs are both healthy, Like we've seen, Monty's role
dramatically reduced compared to last year, except for that one
game when he played at Cincinnati where he just had
this Like we talked about him as a sell high. Think, yeah,
Dave Montgommery was a sell high last week. So it
feels weird kind of saying now he's a bye after
calling him a cell last week. You're kind of putting
me in this position because I have to pick a
buy cell hold for this exercise. So not cool, not

(37:10):
cool warm, But based on who you've given me to
deal with, I guess Dave Montgomery would be the buye.
Unless you could buy Jalen Warren before he plays the Bengals,
I would probably rather do that, But yeah, Dave Montgomery again,
he'll also have better weeks. They're playing at home this week,
He'll he'll score touchdowns again. You know, playing on the
road against the Kansa City Chiefs was a tougher spot

(37:31):
for him, and to his credit, he did throw a touchdown,
but it.

Speaker 3 (37:33):
Just got called back. It was funny too. Last week.

Speaker 2 (37:36):
I was thinking about when he threw that touchdown. I
remember Specifical on the show telling you, dude, worm, how
often is Dan we gonna throw another touchdown? And then
he almost doesn't the exact same week the next week,
in back to back games, I'm like, is this part
of the game, PLT how many thuts down we're gonna say?
Props on Dan Montgomery under overpassing touchdowns?

Speaker 1 (37:56):
Yeah?

Speaker 3 (37:56):
Plus three thousand?

Speaker 1 (37:58):
Yeah that would that would be enough for me to
bet on it.

Speaker 2 (38:01):
No, definitely not. So what do you think of those
running backs in my breakdown?

Speaker 1 (38:07):
I don't like any of them. I just I just
wanted to see seem exactly I had no I have
very little opinion on those running backs. I have very
little interest in them. I think you did it. I
think you you pretty much picked what I would have picked.

(38:27):
But I wouldn't have a ton of conviction in any
of any of them. This is an interesting trio, is
the last one? That I have for you. They're all backups.
It's Tyler, Aljier, Kendre Miller, Taja Spears, Buy Seller, hold Algier, Miller,
and Spears.

Speaker 2 (38:44):
I think I'm going to buy Taj Spears because I
think that he has a chance to carve out the
most productive fantasy role in the Titans backfield, just based
on the pass catching negative game script. We just talked
about Tony Pollard as a cell, so that would probably
be the move I would make. Kendrick Miller is probably
believe the man. Is he the cell here? I think

(39:06):
the thing with him is Kamara is not getting traded,
So what is his actual ceiling if he is the
one be and now a kind of three headed committee
with the Saints. I mean, I like adding Kendre Miller
as a waiver wire guy, but if someone was going
to aggressively trade for him off my roster, I would
be more than happy to part waste. I think that

(39:26):
the ceiling, as we've just kind of seen the Saints
offense in general, just not a very high ceiling with
Spencer Ratler as your quarterback. So even though Kendrey Miller's
look good at times this year, I don't think that
I love him so much that I can't move him,
because I don't think he's ever going to fully take
over this back because Kamara is not going away and
Taysom Hill is always going to be a red zone threat.
So if all he's doing is getting a lot of

(39:48):
carries in between the twenties, which are like the least
valuable for fantasy, and someone else is more optimistic about him,
I think I'd probably trade Kendrey Miller away. And then
I think Algiers the hold, just this guy who has it.
Where will we rank Alger at Bijon went down.

Speaker 1 (40:04):
He would be inside my top yes, twelve. I wonder
if twelve is the right number to say inside the
top twelve?

Speaker 2 (40:12):
I mean he is one of the most locked and
loaded upside handcuffs because we saw his rookie year when
he rushed for one thousand yards and the only read
and again to credit when you mentioned him earlier in
the show talking about man, what would he be like
on another team. It's not his fault that the team
drafted be John Robbinson.

Speaker 3 (40:27):
The next year.

Speaker 2 (40:28):
He was really good as a rookie and he's a
free agent this year too, So maybe a getting someone
else to consider in dynasty formats, go scoo him because
he can be on a new team next year. Now
that may may not be a good thing, because it
could be like the whole Mike Davis profile where.

Speaker 1 (40:44):
He's he's not the type who's gonna like unseat a
real star. But if he has an opportunity, like if
he was if Javonte wasn't there and he was on Dallas,
we'd be all over him right like that, Like he
is good enough to take advantage of being the only
guy in a backfield on a goad off.

Speaker 2 (41:00):
It's not his fault that his team just happened to
draft Bejon Robinson right like most in most backfields, he
would be the RB one on that team. So I
just think that he's too valuable. He's too much upside
to get rid of, Like he's a hole for me.
And it's funny, like we always have to rank him
every week in the waiver wire rankings because he's never
owned enough. But I mean, when you're in a pinch,
you could still throw him out there. I mean last

(41:21):
night we saw him score a red zone touchdown. So
there are much worse flex options than a Tyler Jeer
although I know that he's hard to press the button
on because Bijon is the guy there. His upside is immense.
If something were happy to Bejon and I think, yeah,
in a pinch, you can start him.

Speaker 1 (41:38):
I don't know why I'm struggling to find him in
our rest of the season rankings here. He's also a
hard Oh okay, yeah, he's RB forty one rest of
the season. I had to skip past him.

Speaker 3 (41:52):
Yeah.

Speaker 1 (41:52):
I mean he has three touchdowns already this season as
a backup. I think that will continue. Rough like to
get roughly a touchdown every other game.

Speaker 3 (41:58):
Any more touchdowns in Breese Hallo.

Speaker 1 (42:01):
Yeah. The point is for I like all three of
these names. Honestly, I would like them all on my bench, Ali,
Kendre Miller, and Tydie Spears. Spears is the one most
likely to get a workload. I would say Kendre Miller
is the least likely to get a workload that I'm
interested in barring an injury of the three. But I
would like to have all three on my roster if

(42:22):
I can.

Speaker 2 (42:23):
Yeah, And I think that's a good way to put
I think that algiras the highest ceiling if there's an
injury Spears is the most likely to actually take over
the back field without an actual injury, and Miller has
the least upside of the three even if he were
to be the r we want on his offense.

Speaker 1 (42:37):
Do I forget about our weekly trade live stream on
our YouTube channel, where you can come and ask your
specific fantasy trade questions, will be with you every Wednesday
at three pm Eastern. For those listening on the podcast,
just go to YouTube dot com slash Fantasy Pros, subscribe
and click the bell to be notified of all of
our weekly live streams. Be sure to check out Part
two with our Receivers Quarterbacks a tight ends for Erickson.
I'm Ryan Warmley. Thanks for tuning in. We'll see you

(42:59):
next time. Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy
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Hosts And Creators

Andrew Erickson

Joe Pisapia

Derek Brown

Thor Nystrom

Ryan Wormeli

Pat Fitzmaurice

Matthew Freedman

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.css-14f5ked{margin:0;word-break:break-word;display:-webkit-box;-webkit-box-orient:vertical;box-orient:vertical;-webkit-line-clamp:2;overflow:hidden;}Week 7 Buy Low + Sell High Running Back Targets (Ep. 1772)