Will Xavier Worthy Win Leagues? | Fantasy Football Wide Receivers With MASSIVE Upside (Ep. 1635) - FantasyPros - Fantasy Football Podcast

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Hello everybody. Welcome into the Fantasy pros Football Podcast. I'm
Ryan Warmley, joined today by Pat fitz Morris and by
our guest Davis Maddock. You can find him at Davis
Mattock on YouTube, Patreon, everywhere you're looking for your fantasy
football insights and analysis. Davis, we were just talking before
the show about how this time of year, you just
you make time wherever you can. Thanks so much for
making the time for us.

Speaker 2 (00:22):
Hey Man, Happy to do it. Always love chatting wide receivers.
I mean, it's the most beautiful position of fantasy football.
It's most important one to get right, I think, so happy,
happy to do it.

Speaker 1 (00:32):
Yeah, Wide receivers definitely among probably the most fun position
to talk about in the preseason and in draft season.
Here as we get to the end of July, fits
we're talking about our wide receivers with massive upside. Today
we're running through guys that are kind of wide receiver twos, threes, fours,
even some wide receiver fives that we think have upside
where they're going. You excited to talk about that today
with Davis?

Speaker 3 (00:52):
I am, I am.

Speaker 4 (00:53):
We you know, like we always want to hit the
wide receiver position in the early rounds, but it really
helps if you can dig out some gems in the
middle rounds too.

Speaker 1 (01:02):
Yeah, for sure. A quick remind if for everybody you
can find all of our twenty twenty five Consentus rankings
and tiers at fantasypros dot com slash rankings. Let's start
off just below the top wide receiver twos who we
think have the upside to finish as sort of a
first round value, kind of defining it as like a
top eight wide receiver. Guys who are currently going much
later than that fits. I'll start with you what receiver

(01:23):
stands out to you in this range that you think
could finish top eight this year.

Speaker 3 (01:27):
It's Tyreek Hill for the upside.

Speaker 4 (01:29):
And a few months ago I thought I was going
to be completely out on Tyreek, but I am finding
myself being drawn back in. Tyreek Hill had a pair
of seventeen hundred yard seasons for the Dolphins in twenty
twenty two and twenty twenty three, and a pair of
twelve hundred yard seasons for the Chiefs in the two
years before that. Last year obviously a complete disaster for

(01:50):
Tyreek and he still came pretty close to one thousand
yards and again it's it's impossible to emphasize this enough.
The twenty twenty four season was just an abject nightmare.

Speaker 3 (02:02):
For Tyreek Hill.

Speaker 4 (02:03):
He played the whole season with a wrist injury that
he had sustained in August during a joint practice with
I think it was the Commanders. He lost his quarterback
for four games in the first half of the season
and averaged thirty five yards a game while Tua was out.
Tyreek was even arrested going into the stadium before one
of his games. It was just a Murphy's Law kind

(02:24):
of season for him, and the Miami passing game totally changed,
presumably because Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel was trying to
protect tu after he came back from the concussion. It
was all about getting up the ball quickly and everything
just became very constricted. To averaged five point seven intended

(02:44):
air yards per throw last year, according to Pro Football
Reference in twenty twenty three, had been at seven point
seven are yards per throw in twenty twenty two, Tyreek's
first year in Miami nine point five air yards per throw,
So it was a much different offense last year. I
would imagine the dolls are going to try to stretch
off the passing game at least a little more this season,
and Tyreek had a couple of surgeries to fix the wrist.

(03:08):
He's only thirty one, so I don't think we're at
the age cliff with him just yet. I just think
there's absolutely a chance he could go back to being
a first round value. And you know, I get why
he is a third round expert consensus ranking, but he
does have an upside that exceeds that.

Speaker 1 (03:23):
Davis, what do you think about Tyreek? It's funny because
I find myself very similar to Fits in that I
spent most of this offseason kind of assuming I would
not have Tyreek in pretty much any drafts. I just
felt like he was going to be constantly going higher
than I was interested in. And I'm just kind of
buying into the fact that this is you know, I
see the decline here, right, and we saw it last season.
But I'm sorry to wonder if maybe there's another year
left of him kind of reaching these really high heights

(03:45):
and that maybe I am kind of coming off of
a year or two early. What do you think of Hill?

Speaker 2 (03:49):
You know, I think there's a lot of reasons to
expect really just throw out the sample of the twenty
twenty four Dolphins. Like more often than not, when you
have a decent sized sample of an NFL offense being
above average, I mean the two prior years before, they
were top five and yards per play, top five in
total yards, top five in points. Last year, you have
to a missing time with a concussion. You have all

(04:11):
these problems with the offensive line. A Chain misses time
with a concussion, just sort of a mess up and down.
You have the wrist injury, you have the police incident
with Tyreek, You've got Waddle leaving all these games early.
They kind of reconfigure the offense middle of the season.
It's all, you know, John wus Smith's screens and a
Chain is getting I believe he had eighty seven targets
last year, and maybe we see that volume again for

(04:33):
a Chain, and maybe they build on.

Speaker 5 (04:36):
Top of that.

Speaker 2 (04:37):
But basically, the thing that Tyreek provides there are only
so many players in the playerpool who can score twenty
points per game, Like you could probably count them on
one hand, and the you know, depending on your personal proclivities,
maybe ten percent chance, twelve percent chance, twenty percent chance.
The Tyreek returns to that form a lot of the guys.
You know, he's the wide receiver twelve ish, you know,

(04:58):
kind of depending on where you're drafting. So you look
at the guys who go after him, well, like T
Higgins definitely can't. Terry McLaurin definitely can't. I'd be surprised
if JSN Devonte Adams reached those sides.

Speaker 5 (05:08):
So even you know.

Speaker 2 (05:09):
Another great way to explain it is you're in a
twelve team league with your buddies. You have an eight
point three percent chance of winning that league. You know,
ninety one and a half percent of the time you lose,
so you might as well try and make as many
decisions as possible that help you win it as opposed
to trying not to lose.

Speaker 5 (05:24):
So I'm on board with the Tyreek selection fits.

Speaker 1 (05:28):
Before we move off, just because he's such a big name,
I want to ask you one quick follow up question.
Let's say you start your draft with like Bijon at
the top of the first and then at the end
of the second it's like Chase Brown or Kien Williams
or whatever running back. I know you like Jase Brown
a lot. That's why I mentioned him for you fits,
would you be comfortable in that scenario with Tyreek? Is
your wide receiver one, like in the early part of
round three? Is that Is that a strategy you'd be

(05:49):
willing to employ.

Speaker 4 (05:51):
Yeah, I think so, And especially in leagues where you
have to start three receivers, I would probably prioritize him,
maybe over Chase Brown if left with those two options.
But you know, I wouldn't mind just grabbing both, especially
in the league if you only need to start two
wide receivers, and maybe it's a little more there's more
incentive to go with two running backs with your first

(06:14):
three picks.

Speaker 1 (06:15):
Okay, Davis, let's go to your wide receiver two. Who
could finish as a top eight guy this year?

Speaker 3 (06:19):
All right?

Speaker 2 (06:20):
Mine is Xavier Worthy And this is obviously gonna be
a little bit controversial. A lot of people just think
he stinks. A lot of people. You know, a good
one is Alec Pierce. Technically, if you don't include playoffs stats,
had more yards than Xavier Worthy last year. Ray Ray
McLeod more yards actually than Xavier Worthy last year. I
think a lot of what people remember, frankly, is just

(06:43):
how bad the Chiefs offense looked immediately following the Rashie
Rice injury, there was actually a game against Tampa Bay
in overtime were Worthy finished with negative points because he
had two rushing attempts for negative ten yards. I don't
know what Andy Reid did, but in between the Denver
and the Buffalo game, they basically changed Worthy's position and

(07:04):
kind of played him in a hybrid of the Rashie
Rice and the I guess what you would now call
the Marquez Valdez scantling role. Mahomes did not hit Worthy
outside of one play against the Chargers and one play
against the Eagles on any throws further than twenty yards
down the field. Kind of an unbelievable stat for the
literal fastest player in the history of the NFL combine.
Worthy also a very young player, just turned twenty two. Actually,

(07:29):
so like to give you an example. Zavir Worthy younger
than some of the wider like Zavieer. Worthy is younger
right now than Kyle Williams, who got drafted by the
New England Patriots. Like, He's a very young player, a
lot to learn for me. The most bollish thing about
him is, obviously his best NFL game came in the
AFC Conference Championship against Buffalo. I'm not even going to

(07:50):
count the Super Bowl stuff because I you know, I
think that game was well and handled. Rashie Rice, I'm
guessing is suspended for the first month of the season.
Could probably be up to the first six games of
the season. Andy Reid a pragmatic coach. You know, they
want to get back to the Super Bowl. The most
pragmatic way to approach their offense. It's not going to
be putting more on Kelsey's plate. It's not going to

(08:12):
be asking Hollywood Brown to handle, you know, seven targets
a game. It's not going to be asking Jalen Royals
to be Rashie Rice. I think the most pragmatic thing
is saying, we just spent a first round pick on
Xavier Worthy. He had mixed results, but clearly has something
that no one else on the offense has, which is
that blazing speed. Let's find ways to get him the ball.
I actually think Worthy's best role is kind of replacing Kelsey,

(08:37):
if that makes sense. You know a lot of those screens,
a lot of those option routes that used to be
I mean, Travis Kelsey's thirty four years old, like he
can be out there, but he's not going to be
the engine of the offense. So if you combine Worthies
ability to get open close to the line of scrimmage,
and let's say instead of missing Worthy on eight consecutive
throws twenty yards down in the field, let's say he

(08:59):
hits on four of those this year. I mean that
totally changes who he is as a player. And I
think he's unbelievably high ceiling.

Speaker 1 (09:07):
Are you willing to not just like take him at cost, Davis,
but would you want to go out and reach for
Worthy to make sure you get him this year?

Speaker 2 (09:15):
Yeah, definitely. And again it depends on where you're drafting,
Like if you're drafting on ESPN, you're gonna be able
to get him cheaper. If you're gonna drafting on SLEEP
or I believe he's a little bit more expensive there. So, like,
you know, it's kind of the you know, abusing the
default rankings and be aware of what your league mates are.
Like I'm from Kansas my league with all my buddies
in our league. Last year, to get Xavier Worthy's a rookie,

(09:35):
I had to take him in the fourth round, right,
And if I want him this year, I'm probably gonna
have to take him even earlier. So you do you
need to be you need to be aware of that.
But I'm comfortable once JSN and McLaurin, once you see
their name in the in the draft applet in your
in your queue, I'm I'm not going to take him

(09:55):
over Devonte Adams. I don't think I'm not gonna take
him over t Higgins or anyone like that. But you
kind of get into that flat right. It's like James
and Williams, Terry McLaurin, Jayson, I'm like, I don't know, man,
I might just take Worthy there.

Speaker 1 (10:06):
I always tell a story like about, you know, having
to know the league you're in that I'm in a
long running salary cap league with a lot of Ravens fans,
and Justin Tucker goes for like nine dollars in that format.
He won't this year, obviously, but he for many years
would go for like nine bucks. And I just please
go take go spend money on your kicker. I'm happy
to see you do it. So you could take advantage
of stuff like that for sure. Fitz, we've talked about

(10:28):
the receiving room for Kansas City. You know, on several
shows throughout the off season. Just in terms of Rashee Rice,
obviously we have, you know, more and more updates about
the legal situation there and Xavier Worthy, like coming off
of the way he finished last season, like Davis talked about,
where do you ultimately come down on ranking Worthy this year?

Speaker 4 (10:44):
Yeah, I mean he is pretty close to I think
now he is in wide receiver two range for me,
So I think I'm a little above consensus. And I think,
you know, Warma Rashid Rice has been a red light
guy for me all off season, and I'm really encouraged
to hear where Davis lands on the Rashi versus Worthy
thing because I know Davis is a Chiefs fan and

(11:07):
has his ear to the ground on all things Kansas
City Chiefs. So yeah, I mean it never the Rice
enthusiasm never really made sense to me because Worthy did
not have a foothold in the Chiefs offense early on
when Rice was smashing last year and in Rice's rookie year,
the guys who were getting starts at wide receiver for

(11:28):
the Chiefs besides Rashi Rice were mvs Justin Watson sky
Moore like these were not serious target earners. Worthy On
the other hand, he had fifty catches in his last
eight games last year if you include the playoffs and
discount Week eighteen when he played one snap because all
the starters were sitting, Like fifty catches eight games, that's

(11:48):
one hundred catch pays. And so like Rashie, Rice is
not going to get the same sort of target volume
because Worthy is going to earn targets himself. And now
we're looking at some miss time for Rice, whether it's
four game, six games. So yeah, I absolutely see the
upside with Worthy fits.

Speaker 1 (12:06):
Let's stick with you as we go to our wide
receiver threes with wide receiver one upside. This is a
name that you have in the sheet who you have
been interested in for a while, and I'm in full
agreement here.

Speaker 3 (12:17):
Yeah, it's Calvin Ridley.

Speaker 4 (12:18):
And I've never really been on the Calvin Ridley band
wagon before. Like, I'm not a Ridley die hard, and
there are definitely some Ridley diehards out there.

Speaker 3 (12:27):
But I can't figure out why.

Speaker 4 (12:28):
His expert consensus ranking and his ADP have been in
like mid range to low end wide receiver three territory
all offseason, and why that hasn't corrected yet. Like Worthy
has turned in two straight thousand yard seasons. He got
there last year with Will Levis and Mason Rudolph as
his quarterbacks. Now he gets to play with number one

(12:49):
overall draft pick cam Ward. And I can understand that
people might have some trepidation about a receiver being fed
by a rookie quarterback, but I think Ward is going
to be pretty good for Ridley. Like Ward likes to
push the ball downfield, and he will sometimes hold onto
the ball too long because he wants to make the
big play. Like that sort of thing might have Tennessee

(13:11):
Titans fans pulling their hair out this season, but I
think cam Ward could benefit his pass catchers in much
the same way that quarterbacks like Jamis Winston and Joe
Flacco do. Like There're gonna be some mistakes and some turnovers,
but he's also going to make some downfield connections.

Speaker 3 (13:28):
And wait, I did I say pass catchers, because that
suggests more than one.

Speaker 4 (13:34):
And let's see, there's Ridley, there is perennial tight end
sleeper Chickoconquo. There is elec Iyaman or who you know,
a rookie I sort of like, but by no means
is he a sure thing. There's Tyler Lockett and Ben
Jefferson in the mix. It's just a pretty gross collection

(13:54):
of pass catchers beyond Ridley. So I don't think it's
out of the question that Ridley could match or exceed
the one and forty three targets he had in the
Falcon with the Falcons in twenty twenty, that was his
high watermark for targets, and that would put him among
the NFL's target leaders.

Speaker 1 (14:11):
Davis, do you think that cam Ward will be good
enough to support a you know, upside type of season
from Calvin Ridley?

Speaker 2 (14:18):
You know, I think it's really interesting that in fantasy
football generally speaking, people who are listening to Fantasy Football
podcast in July, these people love rookies. We love you
know this list we're about to do the guy names
isamand Bolder rookies, right, But the number one overall guy
in the draft cam Ward. No one really seems to

(14:38):
be that excited quarterback twenty five and the expert consensus
rankings Titans win total hasn't moved very much. I mean,
am I great at evaluating quarterback play? Can I tell you? Oh,
I you know cam Ward is gonna be this he's
gonna be that. I don't know. I watched a lot
of cam Ward play football at Washington State in Miami.
I think he's very accurate, little bit concerned about his

(15:02):
mobility and decision making, you know, against bigger, stronger competition.
But if he can be a C minus quarterback, if
he can be the eighteenth best quarterback in the NFL
instead of the twenty seventh best quarterback in the NFL,
I mean there's very few guys with a clear path

(15:22):
to a thirty percent target share like Calvin Ridley because
as as as mentioned, I mean just no pat like Chigakonkquo,
Iomaner chamire d k Tyler Lockett, like there's absolutely no
one standing in his way.

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Speaker 1 (16:59):
That's get into one of those rookies that you alluded
to that you picked.

Speaker 2 (17:02):
Here, all right, I selected Matthew Golden again, kind of
depending on where you're drafting, who you're drafting with, Like
I anticipate, and I think like leagues that are full
of people who are quite sharp, pretty tuned in, it's
going to be pretty hard to sneak Matthew Golden by them.
You know, maybe ten years ago, five years ago, you
could have snuck. The example I always go back to

(17:24):
is Garrett Wilson was I think the expert consensus wide
receiver fifty four his rookie year after being a first
round wide receiver pick. I think those days are probably
behind us. Golden a bit of a weird college football profile,
didn't really start producing kind of at all until his
final five to six games at the University of Texas,

(17:45):
but was awesome when the team changed the offense away
from throwing to Isaiah bond Is their primary weapon to
Golden super fat actually way faster than anticipated at the
NFL combine. Where's number twenty two, which I don't love,
but effectively, the Packers, I think they know they need

(18:06):
a wide receiver one. It's why they took Golden in
the first round, their first first round wide receiver. I
had the trivia name. It's been a long time. It's been,
you know, since, I think since even Barb's time with
the Packers was the last time they took a first
round wide receiver. They also select save On Williams in
the third round. Christian Watson and Romeo Dubbs contracts are
done at the end of Watson's at the end of

(18:29):
this season, dubs at the end of next season. It's
one of the few situations where you don't even have
to hope and or pray on a rookie wide receiver.
It's just there for you. He just is going to
be starting Week one. The Packers were thirty first in
the NFL and pass rate over expectation last year. If
you get kind of a reverse to the median there,

(18:51):
you get them. You know, about fifteenth, fourteenth in the NFL,
could be one hundred more throws available in that offense
than there were last year. Jayden Reid has only played
thirty three total snaps and two wide receiver sets as
a member of the Packers. Now he might get a
little bit more this year, which would be bad for
Golden because Reed is a good target darner. But I mean,
I think we could be seeing one hundred and thirty

(19:12):
target wide receiver go after the sixth round, which is
just very rare in fantasy football.

Speaker 1 (19:19):
Fits. You are a Packers fan, so I'm assuming you
have an answer to that trivia question about the last
first round receiver.

Speaker 3 (19:25):
Javon Walker two thousand and two. Bright Far.

Speaker 2 (19:28):
There we go, Yeah, there we go, Javon Walker.

Speaker 3 (19:31):
It has been a while.

Speaker 4 (19:33):
Yeah, So, and I've been kind of mixed on Golden because,
uh and I'm sure Davis is aware of this. Like
the analytics guys, the model guys have pointed out the
red flags with the production profile of Matthew Golden in college.
But as Davis pointed out, the Longhorns kind of changed
their offense a little bit when Isaiah Bond was out

(19:55):
and like Golden was having spectacular games against legitimate college defense,
his teams like Georgia just kind of lighting it up
down the stretch.

Speaker 3 (20:05):
So I don't know what to make of the.

Speaker 4 (20:07):
You know, checker production profile where at one point he
was like the third leading wide receiver at the University
of Houston, and that was after Tank Dell left. But
I do know that Daniel Jeremiah, Dan Brugler, mel kiper Junior,
all the scouting guys, the film guys, they loved him
and had him as a top fifteen prospect. So and

(20:29):
I also know that the Packers current set up at
wide receivers not very good. Dantavian Wicks can't squeeze the ball.
Romeo Dubbs is just a guy. Jayden Reid I like,
but I don't know if the usage is going to
be somewhat limited with him. It seems like Matt Lafleur
is kind of a role carved out for him. So yeah,
there's opportunity, and I don't mind like wading into an

(20:53):
ambiguous wide receiver room with an offense that figures to
be pretty good. And like Davis, I do expect the
Packers to throw a little more this year. Like Jordan
Love was never healthy last year, sprained mcl in Week
one and then like just as he was getting healthy,
like tweaked his growing at mid season, and that was
bothering him the rest of the year.

Speaker 1 (21:13):
My general approach to the Packers offense and fantasy has
been to target Love because he's QB seventeen and I
expect him to throw more. And then I'm not like
trying to pick and choose which receivers to make sense
of in this offense. I do think Golden obviously, though,
like as a first round you know receiver rookie receivers
taken highly tend to be very great bets, especially in

(21:34):
the second half of the season. So like, I think
he's as smart as investment as anybody in this offense
beyond just trying to get the quarterback on your team. Davis,
is there a round or kind of like ranking range
that you would be comfortable taking Golden because he's He's
somebody that like in the in the consensus rankings is
lower than you might imagine, but like I think will
tend to creep up throughout August and kind of get

(21:56):
up to this range where are you willing to draft him?

Speaker 2 (21:59):
So I think you make a great point there, which
is the consensus stuff consensus ADP consensus ranking in late
July is gonna be really different than it is when, like,
you know, kind of that Labor Day weekend when everyone
really gets to drafting. I anticipate a couple news items
go his way, which, by the way, as we're recording this,
he did just have a nice fifty yard touchdown catch
from Jordan Love in Packers training camp. I think he

(22:22):
could be the sort of guy who gets into the
mid sixth because there's just kind of that weird range
you've got, like after Juan Jennings goes from like Chris
Alave all the way to Josh Downs who goes in
like the nineties right now, and the expert consensus. I
could kind of see a couple news items, a little
bit of fluff from the coaches, kind of moving guys,

(22:43):
you know, fifteen spots, and my guess is is that
it's all going to be positive stuff for Matthew Golden.
I'm comfortable if I needed to take him at pick
sixty seven in my league, I'd actually I would be
I'd be comfortable doing it.

Speaker 3 (22:58):
One.

Speaker 2 (23:00):
I think a lot of the college production profile. I'm
just not really concerned about it. I think he's quite
good and unless there's a Jayden Reid playing time change
that I'm not forecasting properly. I don't really see anyone
else who's going to beat him out for targets either,
So I just really want Golden on a lot of
my teams.

Speaker 1 (23:20):
See, I don't want to talk about news updates from
today because my beloved Isaiah likely was carded off the
field like an hour ago and I'm still emotionally recovering
from that one. Let's go to our wide receiver fours
and obviously the further down you get, the harder it
is to say these guys have real like wide receiver
one upside. So these are kind of like wide receiver
fours ish with like wide receiver two upside, which is

(23:40):
obviously very valuable, but a different type of upside than
maybe some of the guys we talked about already. Fits
will start with you again here, who do you have
as a wide receiver four?

Speaker 4 (23:49):
Stefan Diggs? And this does require a leap of faith
with Digg's health. He's thirty one and coming off a
week eight ACL tear. But it was a clean TA.
There was no meniscus damage, no O their ligament damage.
And I don't know unless Diggs is a shell of himself.
He is going to be the number one target for
Drake May. And Drake May was surprisingly competent as a

(24:11):
passer in his rookie season, even though his offensive line
and wide receiver corps were both awful. And Diggs has
actually been in this sort of situation before, like when
he showed up at Buffalo in twenty twenty, a lot
of people were still under the impression that Josh Allen sucked.
Like then Allen went ballistic in twenty twenty and threw
for forty five hundred yards and thirty seven touchdowns, and

(24:34):
Diggs had his best season ever one hundred and twenty
seven catches fifteen hundred yards. Obviously, that isn't the expectation
for Diggs this year. He was in his prime when
he went from Minnesota to Buffalo and now he's passed
his prime and coming off this torn ACL But could
Diggs have a thousand yard season as Drake May's top target.
I think he could, and you know, yet, he's kind

(24:57):
of an afterthought in drafts right now. We are as
wide receiver forty two, so I've been drafting him pretty often.
And look, if he doesn't pan out at a wide
receiver forty two cost. It's not going to sting me all.

Speaker 1 (25:10):
That much, Davis. Your list is very youth heavy. Obviously,
Is dig somebody that you're interested in where he's going
or are you just staying away from somebody coming off
injury at that age on a new team.

Speaker 2 (25:22):
No, you know what I started out, you know, kind
of thinking about the twenty twenty five fantasy football season,
like being like, man, I don't know if I love Diggs.
The production that did exist last year was fine. You know,
his yards per game, his catches per game were down
even from his down year Buffalo. The arts per target
were okay, but still way below his career average seven
point eight yards per target last year eight point four

(25:45):
for his career. But what I mean, what you'll find
doing fantasy football long enough is that you know, you
can kind of get away with losing a step a
wide receiver if the competition for targets is not there.
Like you look at some of the later states, you know,
Larry Fitzgerald seasons and things like that, when they didn't
really have the juice anymore. But like, for example, Larry

(26:06):
Fitzgerald age thirty one sixty three catches seven and eighty
four yards, two touchdowns, turns it around, has one hundred
and nine catches or more each of the next three seasons. Now,
I mean Diggs, I don't think is as good of
a player as Larry Fitzgerald was at his peak. I
think these are different, But I think he landed in
a situation where one, it's that you know, quick passing

(26:28):
McDaniel's offense, like so many guys with low average depth
of targets have been super productive as members of Josh
McDaniels led offense. And two, it's like if you believe
in Drake May, if you think Drake May can be
the eleventh best quarterback in football, you're definitely gonna want
the top target there. And they're actually very similar to
Golden you know, there's just no one who can really

(26:52):
step in his way, you know, like or you know
what he is. It's like the same thing as Calvin Ridley. Really,
he's not coming off an injury. But I wonder if
one of the things that's really buoying him down is
concern over his health. But like if he's just out
there and runs full routes week one, like wide receiver
forty two is going to feel crazy and fits.

Speaker 1 (27:13):
You and I have been on the Drake May train,
you know, all off season. And so if he does
take the step forward that we and some of that
is from the rushing right, we love him in fantasy.
But again, if there's not a lot of great targets
in this offense, we think the offense is going to
generally be better and he takes a step forward. If
Diggs is on the field, he will assuredly be a
value where he's going right now. To me, this is

(27:35):
strictly just a health or or not healthy situation. Davis,
your receiver in this range is another rookie.

Speaker 2 (27:42):
Yeah, another rookie. And it's what's funny is I maybe
would have flagged his teammate, but I've got a mechag
Buka here Ohio States all time leading perceptions and receiving
arge record. Pretty impressive. It's only impressive actually if you
don't think about it for a second, which is that, Well,
the reason why he's the all time leaders he stayed
for an extra year. Harrison Junior, you know, Garrett Wilson,

(28:03):
they all left right because they're all like, all right, well,
we're just going to go be first round picks, why
would we stay for another year? All the reports at
a training camp, as you'd expect, pretty glowing. But you've
got this cool parlay that you can hit taking him,
which is Godwin is not ready to go week one,
so it's going to give Igbuca a chance to start.

Speaker 5 (28:23):
Probably.

Speaker 2 (28:24):
Then you've also got while Mike Evans is heading into
his age thirty one season, I think the real I mean, honestly,
the reason the team took him in round one is
because they know that the Evans Godwin experiences is just
about done. And Baker proved himself to be like a
wonderfully efficient quarterback each of the last two years for
the Buccaneers. We want to be invested in this offense,

(28:46):
and Igbuka is kind of going in that. I mean,
you can get him Buka in the eighties, I would imagine,
I would imagine a lot of your home leagues with
your buddies, you're going to be able to get Igbuca
in the eighth round, maybe maybe the seventh round. And
to me, there's really no reason that he can't just
kind of fulfill that role that Godwin was in last year.
It might be one of those weird situations where he

(29:07):
starts the year hot, then maybe you're benching him in
like week four because Godwin's returned and you're not exactly sure.
But Godwins starting the year slowly opens the ramp up
four Igbuka in a real serious way, Like Buka's just
awesome the first month of the season. I don't think
they're going to force Godwin back into, you know, a

(29:27):
huge target role. So I like as your fourth wide receiver,
your fifth wide receiver. I think it's like the exact
perfect type of bet to make fits.

Speaker 1 (29:36):
I don't have to ask you what you think of
this one, because you have Agbuka as your pick in
the next round. He's like kind of right on that
border of like wide receiver four, Wide receiver five. Davis
has him as wise here four. You had him as
your first pick in the wide receiver five discussions, So
let's just loop right into that segment right now. Why
do you like Agbuka as well?

Speaker 4 (29:53):
Yeah, Well, we've been getting drenched with this firehalls of
training camp news for the last few days now, and
it can be sort of hard to pick out the
things that really matter. But one of the things I'm
perceiving as signal rather than noise. Is just this steady
buzz for a mecheg Buka, Like the Buccaneers coaches seem
to love him, The Beat writers are all saying that

(30:14):
he pops on the field, and Baker Mayfield was just
gushing about egg Buka on the Kelsey Brothers podcast. I
think it was And we had heard during graft season
that eg Buka was one of the guys teams just
unanimously loved after meeting with him. It just seems like
there's something special about this dude. And I know people
didn't love the landing spot because Evans and Godwin are there,

(30:37):
but you know, as Davis pointed out, we're getting this
news that Godwin's recovery from that gruesome ankle injury might
be behind schedule, And I think Jalen McMillan was just
kind of a guy who was in the right spot
at the right time last year after Godwin and was
heard and Evans was also out with the hamstring injury.
Just seems pretty unlikely that McMillan is ever going to

(30:57):
play ahead of egg Buka a first round. So I
don't know, because he's a rookie and because the box
have some big name wide receivers, it seems like Eggbuka
might fall through the cracks in some drafts. And maybe
there's even more upside here than we think.

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for full safety information. Let's kind of transition because we
already have gotten into it into these wide receiver fives,
and we're kind of defining these guys as upside. It's
just becoming weekly fantasy starters. You can kind of look

(32:55):
at guys who could become a wide receiver to like
Ebuka or just guys you know are weekly in your
lineup as opposed to just kind of bench depth pieces, Davis,
who do you have for us here?

Speaker 5 (33:07):
All right?

Speaker 2 (33:07):
I went I went with some real sleepers. These are
guys who like might not get drafted in every single league,
Guys who you can kind of get, like, you know,
like let's say you went super heavy on running backs,
like you know what you were, Like, I need Josh Jacobs,
and I need Chewba Bird, and I need Tony Pollard
and I really I went to Arizona State, so I

(33:28):
want Cam Scattaboo too. I had a handful of guys here,
Josh Downs, who was kind of more in that range
we were just talking about, and then true cheap guys
Rashid Shaheed for the New Orleans Saints, Adam Thielen for
the Carolina Panthers, Dan Tavian Wicks for for the aforementioned
Green Bay Packers, and Ady Mitchell for the Indianapolis Colts.

(33:49):
I mean Wicks and Mitchell so similar, like really good
at getting open, not so good at catching the ball,
not so good at at focusing in on the task
at hand. But if they put it together for a
month stretch, you know they actually have the ability to
put together some of those crazy huge Spike weeks then
Thilan sort of the opposite of that, just real steady

(34:10):
drum beat. You know, if if Adam Thielen is on
the field for the Carolina Panthers, like we're we're gonna
get to Week one and the Expert Consensus Ranking, the
ECR is gonna you know, the weekly rank, he's gonna
be like the wide receiver thirty two, the first the
first set. You know, it's just it's just the way
it goes. When he's on the field. You don't feel
that good about him getting through the whole season, but
there are a lot of team constructions where he would

(34:32):
make a good bit of sense. And then Shaheed, Man,
if we can get Chuck or Rattler to just be fine,
just not abus not not worst quarterback in the NFL
type stuff, I think Shaheed could just like I mean,
it would not surprise me if for sid Shaheed outscored
a lave. Because his skill set is so unique, he

(34:53):
really is one of the most effective down the field
receivers in the NFL.

Speaker 1 (34:59):
Fits any other names in this range for you?

Speaker 4 (35:02):
Yeah, first, can I piggyback and a couple of things.

Speaker 1 (35:05):
It's you don't need to ask for mission to pick.

Speaker 4 (35:07):
Okay, all right, so well, first of all, I'm kind
of amused to hear Davis mentioned Josh Downs because I know,
back when Davis and I started following each other in
the Bronze Age of Twitter, Davis was always team big
wide receiver always, but then there was that there was
that class where what was it Beckham and Jarvis Landry
popping and Davis kind of had a reckoning and started

(35:27):
embracing some of the smaller guys. My one issue with
Josh Downs, like, I worry that Tyler Warren is going
to be a big problem for him, just with some
of those short area targets and Warren being just such
a wrecking ball after the catch. I wonder if that
cuts in the Down's target shair a little bit. But
you know I did earlier speak ill of Dontavian Wicks.

(35:48):
But it's funny Matt Lafleur has compared him to Devonte Adams.
Oh yeah, and like midway through Adam's second season. I mean,
I can say this honestly as a Packers and me
and my other Packers fan friends thought DeVante Adams was
terrible because he couldn't catch the ball and then he
just stopped dropping the ball and was fantastic. And maybe

(36:11):
Wix can have that sort of epiphany where he just
starts squeezing the ball a little bit and turns into
a really good player, because as Davis said, he does
get open.

Speaker 3 (36:20):
But you know, and I agree with a lot of
the other names on Davis's list.

Speaker 4 (36:24):
Adam feeling like that guy's going to play until he's
forty seven.

Speaker 1 (36:27):
I think he's feeling is just the name that like
nobody has any interest in drafting, but like, yeah, like
week to week, when you're actually sitting there seting your lineup, sleep,
he's probably got to get some some targets and valuable here.

Speaker 4 (36:36):
Yes, So at the top of my list is Marvin Mimms.
Like he's just such a unique player, and the impressions
of Mims are just all over the map. Like I know,
some people are dismissing Mims as a gadget guy because
so much of his yardage came on screens last year,
and that's true, he did make a bunch of big
plays on screens. But as a rookie in twenty twenty three,

(36:58):
Mims averaged up to target fifteen point one yards and
he was like in college. When he was at Oklahoma,
Mims averaged more than twenty yards per catch in each
of his last two seasons. He was more of a
nine route guy than he was a screen guy. So
is he really a designated screen pass guy? I'm not
so sure about that. It's just it's really hard to

(37:20):
get a read on what the plan is for him
with Sean Payton. But here's what we do know that
over the Broncos last seven regular season games, Mims had
six touchdowns and averaged sixty two yards over those games,
even though he did not play even half the offensive
snaps in any of them, Like, he averaged zero point
seven to two PPR Fantasy points per snap over those

(37:43):
seven games. So obviously Mims would need to play more
snaps to be consistently fantasy viable. I just I don't
know for sure if he will, But I do know
that the dude has shown he is a playmaker, and
he's still just twenty three years old, and I kind
of want to be along for the ride.

Speaker 1 (37:59):
David, any thoughts on Mims?

Speaker 2 (38:01):
I mean, Marvin Mims is the type of guy who
will just absolutely break your heart, you know. He just
he's kind of your prototypical like you know in the
Sean Payton guys of a Devery Henderson, Robert Meacham, you know,
all these guys. I you know, I'm a University of
Oklahoma fan. Love Marvin Mims, Like really like to draft

(38:23):
Marvin Mims.

Speaker 5 (38:23):
And best ball.

Speaker 2 (38:24):
If if Marvin Mims is able to run seventy three
percent of the routes for the Denver Broncos, I'll be like, wow, man,
you just had to have him in fantasy football this year.
The thing I'm concerned about is, you know, we're already
getting Sean Payton talking up Trent Sherfield, you know, and
some of these guys, and it's like, okay, so if
we've got Sutton running all the routes, but then Mims

(38:47):
is some out of the backfield and you know, him
and Pat Bryan are kind of manning the slot both
and he gets a couple of routes deep, but then
Sherfield and Veyley are like, it's just I'm already giving
myself a headache, you know, thinking about about Sean Payton.

Speaker 5 (39:03):
It's it's it's brutal stuff.

Speaker 1 (39:05):
I was gonna say. You said, like, Mims will break
your heart it's it's more Shot Payton.

Speaker 4 (39:08):
It's more really, Yeah, but Mims is poised to be
that guy who is on your bench when he goes
for one hundred and thirty three yards and two touchdowns
and then you put him in the next week and it's.

Speaker 3 (39:19):
Two for twelve.

Speaker 5 (39:20):
Yes.

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(39:43):
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smarter than ever. All right, guys, I wanted to before
we get into the mailbag, just talk about some general
wide receiver draft strategy. You can mention specifically here if
guys kind of fit the strategy you're describing, But I
really just want to talk about what is our approach

(40:06):
to drafting wide receivers? And this can be an approach
that you like to take every year. You always you know,
want to take a guy early. This can be approach
that you specifically think works with the field this year
if you think it's particularly shallow or deep compared to
some recent seasons. I mean, it's pretty much always deep,
but you know, relative to other years. So just general
thoughts on approaching the position on draft day, Davis, I'll

(40:26):
start with you just kind when you first are sitting
down and thinking about, like what is my perfect draft
look like? Where what are the ranges that you are
taking receivers in that ideal scenario.

Speaker 2 (40:35):
I mean, I just think it's very hard to have
a fantasy football team that I look at and then
I really like without a first round wide receiver.

Speaker 5 (40:42):
It's just you go to go set your.

Speaker 2 (40:45):
Lineup week one and you're like, oh man, my wide
receiver one is T Higgins and I am up against
CD Lamb. I just feel like I'm I just feel
like I'm already in a huge hole there, or as
I'm like, ah, you know, I don't know Alvin Kamara
Week three, he could score as many points as Viijon.
You know, he could score as many points as as
Ashton Genty I start there. I also find late wide receiver.

(41:09):
I mean, like we've already kind of alluded to it
right with Marvin, Mims and Shaheed, and it's just very
hard to start those guys. They're great to look on
your bench. You're like, oh, man, dude, I have Rashid
Chihied on my bench. She scored twenty two last week.
I could start him at any given time, but their
weekly dispersion is going to be so wide that it's
just kind of tough to ever pull the trigger on them.

(41:32):
So kind of my ideal strategy is one wide receiver
in the first round, you know, kind of play it
fast and loose. Sometimes you take Bauer, sometimes you get
a running back, and then hone in. I would say
most on kind of the wide receiver in the fifth round,
the sixth round, the seventh round. Ironically, a lot of
the guys we talked about, Calvin Ridley, Matthew Golden, he

(41:52):
mekeg Buka, because I think those guys are all starting
level quality players.

Speaker 1 (41:58):
Fits. What about you. I know that you often talk
about the difference in your strategy when it's a three
receiver that you start three receivers as opposed to just
starting two when generally in the draft, are you finding
that you're most you know, liking the value that you
see at the position and wanting to attack it.

Speaker 4 (42:13):
Yeah, I mean we in the Fantasy Biz, I think,
talk more with the assumption that it is three wide
receiver leagues, and we see more home well not more,
but a lot of home leagues where you only have
to start two. But since you know, everyone in the
fantasy Biz usually does draft best ball, and like in
those leagues, the percentage of your starting lineup made up

(42:35):
of wide receivers with one quarterback, two running backs, three receivers,
a tight end of flex, it's thirty seven and a
half percent wide receivers, and if you flex a fourth receiver,
it's fifty percent at least of non kickers and non defenses.
So that is a huge percentage of your starting lineup.
And I do not want to get caught short at
wide receiver, so I pretty much want to stay ahead

(42:57):
of everyone else in my league at that position, and
I will you know, patch in at running back. Plus
I think at wide receiver you tend to get what
you pay for more than you do at the other position.
Like there's a lower percentage of late round gems at
wide receiver than at running back, tight end, quarterback. Like
there's an occasional Pooka Nikola, but that's that's pretty rare.

(43:22):
So yeah, I mean, I want to hit that position
hard in the early rounds and then I'm not in
a position where I need to count on you know,
guys like Matthew Golden or even Stefan Diggs to have
great seasons for me to survive at wide receiver, and
then once you get into those middle rounds, Like I
do think and this is kind of underscored by the

(43:42):
guys we've been talking about today. The best deals tend
to be on rookies and old guys, Like it's not
the mid career guys. And we've talked about a mechag Buca,
Matthew Golden, Stefan Diggs, Adam Thielen, Like take the kiddy
and senior citizen discounts.

Speaker 1 (44:02):
Davis, When you are drafting wide receivers in those middle
rounds where you can kind of go into any direction,
how much are you thinking about, Like I want to
get receivers with ceiling versus a floor, or stacking two
teammates together or avoiding that, Like, are you kind of
just strictly going like whoever I have ranked as the
higher guy I'm going to take, or are you thinking
about those sorts of other external factors when you're in

(44:24):
those middle rounds?

Speaker 2 (44:25):
No, I mean I definitely think you need to contextualize
it based on the team you're drafting. So like, I
don't know, Let's say, let's say maybe you start your
draft You've got Justin Jefferson, then you take Chase Brown
in round two, you get DeVante Adams in around three,
and then you might be thinking, Okay, Terry mclaurin's here

(44:45):
and Jamison Williams is here. It's like, okay, well I
already have Justin Jefferson covered, right, and then Adams when
he's available, I expect him to be just like a
really solid, steady producer. So I'm thinking, like, Okay, mc lauren,
really good touchdown producer last year. Unsure how sustainable that's
going to be. Maybe I do air on the side

(45:06):
of Jameson Williams. Then I'm a converse. Let's say you
go like total robust running back, you took three running
backs your first year picks. You're like, dude, I just
need some freaking points. I just need locked in fourteen
point two points per game. Maybe you are being like, Okay,
I'm gonna take McLaurin, I'm gonna take Calvin Ridley because
I just need kind of some locked in safe floor points.

(45:26):
I think it definitely matters the texture of your team.
I would say generally, you just want to air on
the side of ceiling because again, it's just very hard
to win your fantasy football league, and you're going to
get there more when a higher ceiling is possible per player.
But yeah, you just kind of have to adjust based
on what your team is.

Speaker 1 (45:45):
Same question fits.

Speaker 4 (45:46):
Yeah, I think with what Davis was talking about, that
totally makes sense. If you hit wide receiver pretty hard
in the early rounds, I would tend to play for
upside with my later wide receiver picks. Like, if you're
already pretty stacked a wide receiver, you know, Ricky Piersall
might make sense as a guy who's like a seventh
or eighth rounder, But if you have not hit that

(46:08):
position very hard, maybe you want to go with someone
who's more of a floor play like a Khalil Shakir
or Jacobi Myers. A guy who's not going to ever
ascend a superstar status but gives you a pretty solid floor.

Speaker 3 (46:20):
Where's Pearsaal?

Speaker 4 (46:22):
You know, maybe he winds up third in the wide
receiver pecking order this year, but he could also be
a guy who breaks out for like a twelve hundred
yard season and winds up being far and away the
forty nine ers top guy.

Speaker 1 (46:33):
Last question in this segment here fits shooting from the hip.
I did not give you this ahead of time. Just
give me one player that you are planting your flag on.
You must walk away from this receiver in every draft.

Speaker 4 (46:43):
It's probably Calvin Ridley. I just seem to be getting
him everywhere, and the price is just so irresistible.

Speaker 1 (46:51):
Same question, Davis. One guy that you want to get
in as many drafts as possible that save.

Speaker 2 (46:55):
You're worthy just that really appealing combination of like he's
I really think it's unlikely he's a bust, you know,
kind of like I don't know, ten points game and
like a bad season, but I do think he has
like legit top seven or eight points per game upside
with some little touchdown variants.

Speaker 1 (47:13):
For him this month. If you want a chance to
win a signed James Cook Bill's jersey for free courtesy
of our friends at Pristine Auction dot com, all you
have to do is subscribe to the Fantasy Pros YouTube
channel right now, drop a comment below on any video,
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on those notifications you can know when new videos are
up and to claim your prize. Guys, We're gonna wrap

(47:34):
up with a couple of mailbag questions here if you
want more of your questions answered. Fits deebro ericson These
guys are on Discord all the time Fantasypros dot com
slash Chat, so you can always ask them your draft
and keeper related questions. We've got a few that were
sent into us via x slash Twitter earlier today. This
question from David would you keep Chuba Hubbard or JSN.

(47:55):
It's a half PPR league, twelve teams drafting from the
ten slot fits will go to you first, Cuba Hubard
or JSN in that keeper format.

Speaker 4 (48:02):
I hate to lean on the old thing, but it
is one of those. It does depend on what the
lineup configuration is I think like, if it's three wide receivers,
I'm keeping JSN, And if it's only two that you
need to start, I would probably keep Cuba.

Speaker 1 (48:14):
Does a lone that matter for you, Davis or is
there a clear answer one way or the other for you.

Speaker 2 (48:19):
I mean, I think I would just go with the
guy who I have, Like, I mean, I have JSN
ranked on fifteen to twenty spots ahead of Hubbard, So
I think I would go that unless I don't know
if it's a start three running back league or you
can start up to five or something, then sure, like
if there was some real configuration reason to change it.

Speaker 1 (48:37):
Yeah, a question here from at draft Addict, which is
a great name I can relate. It's a trade giveaway
Teo McMillan, get Henderson and Jamison Williams. I assume that's
Travion Henderson, Yeah, jaj Hydison and Jameson Williams. He uses
a lot of nicknames in here, so I'm kind of
reading it live on the fly. It to have VPR.

(48:57):
McMillan is his wide receiver two. Currently it's two running backs,
two receivers and a flex fits. So again giving away
McMillan getting Henderson and Jameson Williams in half PPR.

Speaker 4 (49:07):
Although I do feel more comfortable with McMillan, I think
is my wide receiver too than Jamison Williams. Overall, it's
still a profit because Traveon Henderson I'm pretty excited about.
So I think you just take the profit and then
maybe angle for a different wide receiver too in a
different trade.

Speaker 5 (49:23):
Davis clear agree.

Speaker 2 (49:25):
I mean you're getting one guy ranked I don't know,
five spots away from McMillan and a sixth rounder like
for free. I think you think you just kind of
lock that up.

Speaker 1 (49:34):
Last question here from Michael, and this is not player specific,
but just kind of a general approach. What draft position
are you hoping to pick from in a twelve team
PPR league. It's such just a regular redraft league with
twelve teams PPR. Davis lago to you first, what is
your favorite draft spot this year?

Speaker 2 (49:50):
Man? I love picking at ten because I basically think
there's fourteen players who are kind of eligible to be
first round players, with like gent and A and Brian
Thomas being the back end of that year, and if
you pick a ten, you were just guaranteed to get
two of them right before it kind of goes to
that London AJ Brown, Derrick, Henry Brock Bauers range.

Speaker 5 (50:13):
So I really like picking there.

Speaker 1 (50:15):
Yeah, I was saying this on a recent show. I
can't remember which one, but I think this is a
year where I definitely do want to be picking late.
We actually have some data at Fantasy pros. We ran
a bunch of mock drafts. One of our data scientists guys,
ran like ten thousand mock draft simulations just to see
which teams picking where it tended to come out on top.
And it was kind of the old adage of like

(50:36):
the earlier year, earlier you picked the better. But I
was like, I don't care what the data says. Like
this year, I agree with you. I see like a
clear top fifteen ish or so players that I want
to be getting two of those guys wherever it is
I'm picking. So I want to be picking late second choice.
To be picking early last choice would be picking the
middle for this year. And I do think it's different
for me year to year, but this year I do

(50:56):
like the late pick fits.

Speaker 4 (50:57):
What do you think I tend to agree with Davis.
I think that ten eleven is kind of a sweet spot.
But I don't mind the middle as much. Like if
I'm picking like seventh, I'll take my leak neighbors and
then I don't mind choosing from that ah Chan.

Speaker 3 (51:10):
Bauers London suite of options.

Speaker 1 (51:14):
All right, So we are definitely leading towards the back,
not if you have the chance to pick your slot,
maybe not going early based on what we think. We'll
go ahead and wrap things up there. Just to let
everybody know about more on the discord. If you want
to go some of your questions fantasypros dot com slash chat.
You can come argue your favorite wide receiver with us
in our discord, chat with other fans, and get access
to exclusive amas that wind up on our podcast feed.

(51:35):
Current schedule on the Dynasty side Bogs and fits at
five eastern every Tuesday through the end of August. Myself
fits at five eastern on the first Tuesday of every month.
Come get your questions answered and be on the show
at Fantasypros dot com slash chat. Before we get out
of here, Davis, anything that you want to promote and
plug you got going on here as we get into
draft season.

Speaker 5 (51:55):
No, all of my stuff.

Speaker 2 (51:56):
I have daily Fantasy foot Bowl videos over at YouTube
dot com Slashavismatic than all my rankings, draft guide, strategy.
Anything I write is gonna be over at patreon dot
com slash Davis Matic.

Speaker 1 (52:07):
Go check his stuff out for Davis and Fits, I'm
Ryan Warming. Thanks everybody for tuning in. We'll see again
next time. Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy
Football podcast. If you love the show, the best freeway
to support us is by leaving a positive review on
Apple podcasts at Fantasypros dot com, slash review or on Spotify.
Follow us on x, Instagram and TikTok at Fantasypros at.

(52:30):
Subscribe to our YouTube channel at YouTube dot com slash
Fantasypros

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Will Xavier Worthy Win Leagues? | Fantasy Football Wide Receivers With MASSIVE Upside (Ep. 1635)

Episode Transcript

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.css-14f5ked{margin:0;word-break:break-word;display:-webkit-box;-webkit-box-orient:vertical;box-orient:vertical;-webkit-line-clamp:2;overflow:hidden;}Will Xavier Worthy Win Leagues? | Fantasy Football Wide Receivers With MASSIVE Upside (Ep. 1635)