Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:16):
Yeah, sir, irack with another edition of Fast Break Bets
my betty brows. You know me not voice some guys
me really filling rocks out from a junior here at short, sir,
(00:43):
I am so glad breaking news. If you didn't know,
the w n B A Finals is back. Tonight is
Game one of the w n B A Finals. I
cannot wait. I love this time of year. I love
going and taking exotic bets and seeing what we can do,
(01:04):
how much money we can make. Last year was very
good Cash Deliberty Cash, Jock Uo Jones Finals MVP and
I think that was at like thirty to one or
something like that. Like, h it's been good. It's been good.
So I have some things that I've been looking at.
This is a really really tough series to handicap in
my opinion. So we're gonna get to it. But first,
(01:27):
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(02:16):
got it. Go over there and hop on the Betting
Pros app. All right, so let's talk about it. Las
Vegas Aates is going up against the Phoenix Mercury in
the WNBA Finals. Aces are laying about one thirty five.
One fifteen is a money line dog for this series
(02:38):
for the Phoenix Mercury. This is the first season that
the WNBA Finals will be going to seven games. They
have been at five games since two thousand and five.
In the finals. They have been playing five game series
in the finals. Now they move to a seven game series,
(02:58):
so it's a little bit of a different handicap. This
is the first time that I'm handicapping this as well,
because it's the first time we've seen seven games in WNBA.
And here's my thoughts. If you've been watching the Aces
over the past playoff run, this whole playoff run. Matter
(03:21):
of fact, let's go back even further, because I think
that there's differences in these playoff runs that we've had.
So if we look at the Ace's first two championships,
they were extremely dominant in those playoffs. I'm talking about
two to oh Sweet, three to zho Sweet, get to
the finals, three to one in the finals, three to
(03:42):
one in the finals. They're not They only lost two
finals games in those first two championships. That's it. Two
five game series or not will they weren't five game series,
but two potentially five game series. They only lost one game,
and so what's different about this playoff run. Get to
the first series against the Seattle Storm and they allow
(04:03):
this big comeback in the second half and they force
a Game three, and then they play it all the
way down to the wire. It's a one point winning
Game three against Seattle Storm, who, quite frank step down
in competition compared to what the Aces did in the
second half of that season. Get to the next series,
you have the Indiana fever down, a bunch of players
(04:27):
step down in competition. They get it to five, the
Aces drop game one at home. They rarely dropped games
at home, so it saves this run. The Aces are
playing it really, really close to their chest, so they
have all season. If we're being honest, there's a lot
(04:48):
of times this season where I'm like, Oh, the Aces.
I feel like they are just allowing this game to
be close. Whether it was a good team or a
bad team, They're just allowing the game to be close
at times. So what can the Phoenix Mercury do to
secure a win. Well, the level of defense they play
(05:08):
has to increase exponentials exponentially. I feel like I said
that we're wrong. However, I don't know if they're gonna
be able to slow down the Aces offense. They've had
an issue doing it this year. I don't want to
look too much into the regular season, but they did
not beat the Aces when as Wilson played in a game,
(05:28):
and that is concerning. However, I think that when we
get to these playoffs and we look at how these
two teams are functioning right now. Last series, the Aces
didn't give up. The Aces found themselves down in the series.
It didn't give up and we're fighting, and then, you know,
(05:49):
put themselves in a bad situation in Game five and
didn't continue fighting. Didn't contel you giving up, even though
it was a close game. They ended up as we
see in the finals. Whereas the Phoenix Mercury in their
playoff series, honestly, they're Breonna Stewart away from potentially not
getting out of the first round against the New York Liberty,
(06:12):
and then it was an a feast of Collier away
from potentially not getting out of the second round against
the Minnesota Laks. Oh Asia, you oh, they better not
chinksh you better be perfectly fine in these finals. That's
all I have to say. I'm gonna still take the Aces.
(06:34):
I had the Aces preseason. I thought the Aces would
be much better than what they were this year, despite
them finishing as second in as second in the West.
I think that they they I thought they were gonna
be quite better. However, I still think that the championship pedigree,
I think they have the best player on the planet,
(06:55):
and the offense I think is just too much for
or the Fenous Mercury defense, even though they are a
good defensive team. I think that when you add all
the options and add in the fact that Dana Evans
and Melissa Smith and even Kirsten Bell like are playing
well and if they give you any offensive output as well,
(07:16):
I think the Aces are gonna be able to put
up points every game this series. And it's gonna and
the games that the Phoenis Mercury win is gonna come
down to can they score too or or are the
Aces missing shots that night? Because we as we've seen
the Aces do throughout the playoff run, is that they've
just showed nights where they just do not show up
and it's just incapable for them to show up. And
(07:37):
so I very long witted answer to say, yes, I'm
still on the Aces. I think that the Aces are
gonna play around with their food at times. I wouldn't
even be surprised if I saw the Aces go up
early in the series the Fatous Mercury battle back, and
then we're sitting here in the last game trying to
figure out who the WABA champion is gonna be. So
(08:01):
I like Aces and seven for a series play. I
really wouldn't take the spread. If I would take the spread,
I would kind of look to the Phoenix Mercury side
of things. But Mercury plus one and a half games
is minus one eighty five, So like, I can't really
do that. Uh what else? Aces to win Game one
(08:27):
and Aces to win the series? That plus one twenty
five is a very interesting bet, just to let everybody know.
And I do have a couple serious player props, but
I'll save that for the in segment. Let me just
go ahead and talk about Game one real quick, because
I told you Aces to win Game one. I'm laying
the three and a half with the Aces in game one.
I've talked about it before. The Aces are extremely extremely
(08:50):
good at home, especially in the playoffs. They don't lose
too many times. They already had a let down to
the Indiana Fever earlier, and I think that the reason
is because the Indiana Fever were in the state that
they were. I think if they were a fully healthy
team with Caitlin Clark and this is nothing to Kaitland Clark,
I think the Aces would have took them more seriously
(09:11):
and this would have been very like even though it's
the playoffs, it would have been a high level of basketball,
and the Aces would have been extremely locked in and
not prone to the letdown spots in the playoffs, Whereas
here they know how good the Phoenix Mercury are. They
know At She's played Asian Wilson has played against At
in the finals, they know how hungry she is for
(09:33):
this championship, and they are not trying to give it
to her. I think that they're gonna come out, They're
gonna continue the offensive explosion that they've had, and the
points are just gonna be too much. Phoenix Mercury is
gonna have to regroup and we'll see what Nate Tibbets
can do as a coach in the WNBA finals. This
is his first opportunity of being able to coach in
(09:53):
the finals, so I'm interested to see what his adjustments
will be. I think the Aces come out the gate swinging,
give me Aces late three and half, and then I
have a couple of series props that I will give out,
and those are just fun Bets. I don't feel like
you have to go well, you don't have to tell
anything I do to be honest, But don't feel like
you have to go super big because I'm not going
(10:14):
super big on these, but I just got a couple
of series props that I was interested in, so let's
see how they played out. All right. Before I get
to those, though, got to make sure I talk to
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(10:38):
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Speaker 2 (11:13):
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Speaker 1 (11:39):
Okay, I did play two props in the same market.
I went to three's leader. Asia is a runaway favorite
for points leader, and I actually don't think anybody's going
to be able to keep up with her in the
points leader market. Maybe if she, if at has a
great defensive series against her, then it would probably go
(12:03):
to Jackie Young. But I have the Jackie Young Finals
MVP at twenty five to one the points and the
point total points is at twenty five to one as well,
so it makes sense. I don't think. I don't think
saw too clear Copper Eights are gonna be able to
keep up those two. I really don't regardless win or lose.
I don't think they'll be able to keep up. I
(12:26):
would have liked to get spicy there, but I can
I'm still trying to in my head right now, but
I can't. I'm sorry. Rebounds leader Asia is at minus
three forty unless Thomas at plus two fifty is interesting.
Natasha Mac at one hundred to one is interesting just
because it's one hundred to one, but I think that's
(12:48):
gonna be relatively chalk. If it's not, Asia's probably gonna
be a list of Thomas and the list Thomas's minus
two thousand total assists. I would actually okay, I did
not play this. Oh I hate that I keep playing fever.
I mean Aces stuff. I really wanted to spread the
love a little bit more. But okay, Alyssa Thomas is
(13:09):
that minus two thousand four assists leader. The Aces play
her particularly well, and they really really take away the
assist opportunities for her when they play her. It's been
happening here in Phoenix, it's happened when she was in Connecticut,
and so I would take a stab at Chelsea Gray
(13:32):
to lead the total series and assists at fourteen to one.
That is a prop. I would take a stab at.
I wouldn't look at anybody else. I think it's Alyssa
Thomas or Chelsea Gray. Although Jackie Young is interesting for
my forty to one, Jackie Young is very interesting, but
I would say fourteen and one Chelse Gray. Okay. So
further two that I actually was planning to give out,
(13:53):
We're going to three 's leaders plus one fifteen, Jackie
Young plus four fifty, Sammy Wickham plus five to one,
uh Clear Copper seven to one, to Alloyd eight to one,
Chelsea Gray thirty to one, Catherine Westbelt one hundred to one,
Asian Wilson one. I'm gonna go with Jackie Young and
Sammy wickcam At plus four fifty and five to one, respectively,
(14:15):
So Sammy is coming off of the bench. However, the
Aces are giving up what is it, thirty nine percent
in the playoffs per game, thirty six point six, sorry,
thirty six point seven percent. That's second to last in
the playoffs only to the Seattle Storm, who were at
forty percent in that one playoff series. But they've given
(14:39):
up thirty six. Now Finois Marker are gonna be the
best three point defending team that they played. Yet, However,
Jackie Young is Jackie Young, and Jackie Young is gonna
one take the attempts. Jackie Young is gonna be consistent,
and Jackie Young will will honestly have a chance to
finish each one of the game with two threes and
(15:01):
maybe have a biggest blosion game with that. Maybe she
has a little bit of a down game, but Jackie
Young feels good. I have a lot of Jackie Young
stock in these playoffs, so I think the plus four
to fifty was solid. But Sammy Sammy is the one
because Sammy has multiple four plus three games against the Aces.
I think that at home she can definitely deliver on
(15:25):
a four plus three game. She may give you that
aspect on the road, and she can also consistently hit
two a game. I think there was one she had
one crazy stretch this season where she was hitting two
threes a game for like a number of game stream
When was it, because I remember when she was going
(15:45):
on at one stretch of the season. But it's possible
and it's doable for her, and when she gets hot
from three, it can keep going. And this Aces team
doesn't guard the perimeter particularly the best. So Sammy had
five to one also interesting. I wish these were better priced,
but you know what it is, what it is those
That is what I'm going with, and that is everything
(16:07):
that I have to give out to you. I'm laying
three and a half with the Aces in game one,
I'm going to the threes leader market and taking Sammy
Wickham and Jackie Young just a little stab. I want
to fade the leader in Satsu Sobli because Sasu, as
much as she's plus one fifteen fifteen and leading this,
Satu can get on her get in her own head
(16:29):
at times and then be in a nasty, ugly shooting slump.
And plus, the Aces are really really uh weak inside
the paint, and I wouldn't be surprised if there's a
game plan switches Sasu plays a little bit more inside
the paint. So I like those two plays. I like
Las Vegas and seven maybe not as much. Again, these
are just little anybody sprinkles here and then I am
(16:52):
gonna put something on Chelse's great lead the series and
assists at fourteen to one. All right, with that, that's it.
I'm at really underscore on the score. Makes she give
me a follow on x at betting CROs on x
an Tis at betting pros, NFL, on scaming, you do
dot com slash betting Crows and with that, that is it.
I have nothing else saying, nothing else do Norther. The
way of any of the podcast is gonna be like this. Ah,
(17:13):
I'm so glad for the finals. Be back Roady,