Best WNBA Playoff Bets for Las Vegas Aces vs Phoenix Mercury GM 3 | Player Props Picks & Predictions
October 6, 2025 • 13 mins
Fast Break Bets with Terrell Furman Jr. is back with another episode presented by BettingPros. Terrell recaps the ups and downs from the opening two games of the WNBA Finals, breaking down how A’ja Wilson, Jackie Young, Chelsea Gray, and NaLyssa Smith are shaping the series. He dives into key player performances, momentum shifts, and what bettors should watch heading into Game 3.
Timestamps:
0:00 - Intro
5:50 - NaLyssa Smith
9:45 - Alyssa Thomas
12:50 - Recap
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:15):
Yeah, sir, you're back with another edition of fast bread.
That's in my Betty prose. You know, me, not the
voice of the guys. Me really, Hilorold Sorel from a
junior here at your servis. Okay, okay, okay, okay, okay.
(00:50):
So game one might not have went my way. I
will admit that I was much better in game two.
But Game one might not be with my way. That's fine,
not gonna pan it. But I have to say, and
this is a shameless plug, but the NFL show, I
(01:13):
have hit seven of my last ten bets.
Speaker 2 (01:17):
So like.
Speaker 1 (01:19):
Sometimes it's give and take with betting, you know, like
you guys bet on your own. Like I'm just out here.
I'm very open with what I'm betting, so you can
tell when I'm doing good in one area and bad another.
And so I understand that hey, one didn't go my way,
But the end, I think all those powers have gone
(01:40):
over to the NFL because I'm on an absolute heater
in the NFL and I'm just seeing the board. I mean,
I'm losing by the hook in last place. That's how
I'm losing in the NFL. Not gonna lie losing by
the hook here nwnba because boom aces laying three and
a half and one. They went by three. Man man,
(02:08):
oh man, oh man, oh man, oh man. That was brutal.
That was brutal. It was a brutal one, it really was.
And I was sitting there at the end like, okay,
can I get an extra foul? Can I get a stop?
And then they foul and went by four or five,
and at drove on Asia hard to the basket and
(02:31):
got I mean the ball bounced off the I believe
it bounced off the backboard, then the front iron, then
the back iron, and then fell right in. I was
just like, oh, dude, that hurts. That really really hurts.
It's all good though. Asia Wilson didn't cash in game one.
Neither did Jackie Young, neither to send me would come.
(02:51):
But Melissa Smith got over those rebounds. It was plus
one y two, So I mean, hey, I'll take it.
I'll take it. Very very very poor showing in game one. However, however,
in game two, Jackie Young had thirty two points. So
(03:12):
Jackie Young Finals MVP is not off the table. Asia
has a clear lead right now, but is not off
the table. And then Chelsea Gray is leading and assists
right now, and that was a fourteen to one bet.
So there's some things that are going okay, some things
that are not. I have a couple of ways to
bounce back, and guess what, We've got a couple of
(03:34):
days to do it because we don't have games until Wednesday.
So I'm gonna break down two player props for you
today we'll get talking about some more stuff. The state
of the league is just in shambles, and honestly, from
what it sounds like, we better enjoy this WNBA basketball
right now because it doesn't sound like we're gonna it
doesn't sound like we're gonna get basketball in May, because
(03:56):
this lockout looks like it's coming and it doesn't look
like there's any way forward. So I'm gonna enjoy these
finals because I as it looks like we might not
be having a season on time next year if they
don't figure out this CBA thing. All right, back to
what we really really need to talk about here. First,
before we get to that, I gotta make sure I
(04:17):
mentioned hard Rock Bet. Get down on all the action
over there at hard Rock Bet. Look, it's Monday night football.
You can go and hop in and tap into some
of the streaks that hard Rock bet stats Hub has
going on. You can find lives to bet on all
the streaks in the app, like Korean Hunt has found
(04:38):
the end zone in six straight October games and rush
for thirty three yards in eight Monday night games in
a row. What in eight Monday night games in a row?
Right October? Shout out to those shoes. I used to
want those shoes back in the day to red October's
I did. I don't think I would wear them now,
but back when I was a kid, I wanted the
red ot sober shoes. Yeah. So make sure you go
(05:01):
check out hard rock Bets. If you haven't tried your
first hard rock bet, then it's still time for you
to get one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets.
All you gotta do is place a fight out of
the bet and if it hits, not only you get
your winnings, but you also get one hundred and fifty
dollars in bonus bets. So go dark download the hard
rep bet the hard Rock Bet app today and make
(05:23):
your first deposit.
Speaker 2 (05:24):
Payable and bonus bets not a cash offer offered by
the Seminole Tribe of Florida. In Florida offered by the
Seminal hard Rock Digital LLC. In other states, must be
twenty one and physically president Arizona, Colorado, and Florida, Illinois, Indiana,
New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, or Virginia to play. Terms and
conditions apply. Concerned about gambling in Florida called one eight
eight eight admit it in Indiana. If you are somebody
you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call
one eight hundred and nine with it. Gambling problem called
(05:46):
one hundred gambler in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, in New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, Virginia.
Speaker 1 (05:50):
All right, let's go a couple of player props here.
For Game three of the WNBA Finals, Aces dominated game
too one far and away. I mean the Mercury couldn't
hit anything. They were like shooting some seventeen percent from three.
(06:10):
I think Ka hit a couple of threes. Satsu hit
a couple of threes before she went down with an
ankle injury. She sounds like she's gonna be okay though,
at least that's what she said out her mouth. But
it is it is rough, and I mean a rough
seventeen percent from three in that game, they went from
(06:32):
thirty eight point nine percent to seventeen percent. That's how
they lost the game. Honestly, I mean not only could
they not get stops on the aces at all whatsoever,
but like that's a good portion of how they lost
this game. And of course, you know Asia had twenty
first half point she was going crazy. Jackie Young in
the third quarter with a twenty point third quarter, an
(06:54):
explosion twenty point third quarter for Jackie Young. So how
do we start game three? Well, one, we go ahead
and take advantage of a market that clearly the books
are not paying attention to. Because Melissa Smith played twenty
one minutes in that blowout game and she logged five rebounds.
(07:20):
The game before she played sixteen minutes log six rebounds.
Right now, Lilissa Smith's rebound prop is at four and
a half. Four and a half? Am I missing something?
Will am I? Because what's going on? How is this
(07:41):
number going down? She hid it in the past two games.
So because she came back and got five that last game,
we drop it to four and a half again. And
Melissa Smith the reason that we were on a rebounds
in game one. Listen to her rebounds against the Phoenix
Marker fifteen ten nine six nine five six five. She
(08:07):
hasn't gone under this. This is what they brought her
in for. This is what they needed. Becky Hammond needed
another rebounder. She needed another offensive scoring option, and she
felt like she could coach her up defensively. She hasn't
gone under this rebound problem once against this team. And
(08:29):
I get okay, she may not be at the fifteen
ten Melissa Smith in rebounds that she was doing in Indiana,
But what's going on here? Guys? Come on four and
a half on Melissa Smith. Let's just go ahead and
put that in the bay. I'm gonna run that bet
back until it doesn't hit, and it's hit the past
two games because they suck for some reason, dropped it
(08:49):
last game, and so I will take over four and
a half Smith. I'm sorry. Over four and a half
rebounds for Melissa Smith. It's way too low. I understand
she went in one lower last game, but she's been
very solid in getting five rebounds. I think she gets
another five, maybe even more so. Melis Smith over five
and a half rebounds. Play number one before we get
(09:12):
to play number two, got up, talk to you about
the Betting pros at where you can go get that
WNBA prop bet cheat sheet over there in the Betting
pros app our top player prop picks based on our projections,
and the sports book lines updated daily with recommended bets
in all stack categories. So head over there, check it out.
(09:33):
You can get points, rebounds, assists, three pointers, all of
that in WNBA prop bit she bettingpros dot com slash
WNBA props or download the Betting pros app All right,
second play. I understand why they dropped at points prop,
(09:54):
but they just dropped it too far at this point
and she didn't get their last game. Fine, I think
now back at home, down two games to none. This
is where the Phoenix Mercury and at Wake Up do
handle business. Eight's looking at her in the playoffs. She's
(10:15):
been over this in one, two, three, four, five, six,
seven of her nine playoff games already, she's been over
fourteen and a half points. She's actually had twenty eighteen, nineteen,
twenty one, twenty three. Now am I expecting her to
go and climb the ladder here? No? I'm not actually
playing the ladder on at because fifteen is about where
(10:36):
she stays. That's her average. That's about where she finds
herself At, especially playing against Asia Wills, because it is
really really hard to score on her inside of the paint.
As is giving her a whole bunch of space where
she's just daring her, and I mean daring At to
shoot the basketball. And so I think At gets a
lot more aggressive here, gets downhill, attacks her in the body,
(10:57):
very very physical, makes and forces her to defend. If
Asia is going to go out there and defend At,
she's going to have to really do it and not
just do it off of merit and where oh we
see Asian Wilson there, We're not going to force the ball,
No forcet of all to At and make her prove
she's the defensive player of the year, make her prove
how good she is, because At is still very very
(11:19):
strong when driving to the rim, and so coming back
home here, I think that we're going to see a
lot more aggressive At and going and finding her shot
so that that collapses the defense and maybe opens up
somebody else on the outside, because they missed a lot
of three pointers in that game, and their three pointers
get a lot better when At is very aggressive going
(11:40):
to the rim, and teams start collapsing on her or
just draw attention to her as she starts spreading the
ball around. So I think that this is a good
spot for At. Like I said, over in seven of
her last ten playoff seven of her last ten playoff games,
I like at to go over fourteen and a half
points here. She's been over fourteen and a half points
(12:03):
in four over last five games against the Aces. Four
over last five she's gone over fourteen and a half points.
So a little bit of juice here, but that's fine.
I'm willing to pay it. I think this is a
good spot where eighteen bounces back and does what she
always does. She gets about fifteen. Look at this sixteen fifteen,
seventeen fifteen, ten last five games. I think this is
(12:23):
a good spot. Is shoot even the game before that fourteen,
so this is literally right around her average. I feel
good with this. She had two under games these playoffs
and she's bounced back, so I think this is a
good spot for her to bounce back again. Give me
eight over fourteen and a half points, and that is
how we start the week. Two quick player prop bets.
(12:44):
I'll have more going over the course of the entire
week until we get to the game on Thursday. But
Melissa Smith over four and a half rebounds, eight over
fourteen and a half points two quick and easy get
me back on the board. I feel good about those.
With that, I'm Matt really real unerscorre unerscore. She give
me a follow on next Betting Pros on x saying
TikTok betting Pros, NFLA on instamming YouTube, dot com, sash
(13:04):
for betting Pros And with that, that's it. I have
nothing else saying nothing else to do, no other way.
If any of the podcasts is getting like this, we
are out of the
Yeah, sir, you're back with another edition of fast bread.
That's in my Betty prose. You know, me, not the
voice of the guys. Me really, Hilorold Sorel from a
junior here at your servis. Okay, okay, okay, okay, okay.
(00:50):
So game one might not have went my way. I
will admit that I was much better in game two.
But Game one might not be with my way. That's fine,
not gonna pan it. But I have to say, and
this is a shameless plug, but the NFL show, I
(01:13):
have hit seven of my last ten bets.
Speaker 2 (01:17):
So like.
Speaker 1 (01:19):
Sometimes it's give and take with betting, you know, like
you guys bet on your own. Like I'm just out here.
I'm very open with what I'm betting, so you can
tell when I'm doing good in one area and bad another.
And so I understand that hey, one didn't go my way,
But the end, I think all those powers have gone
(01:40):
over to the NFL because I'm on an absolute heater
in the NFL and I'm just seeing the board. I mean,
I'm losing by the hook in last place. That's how
I'm losing in the NFL. Not gonna lie losing by
the hook here nwnba because boom aces laying three and
a half and one. They went by three. Man man,
(02:08):
oh man, oh man, oh man, oh man. That was brutal.
That was brutal. It was a brutal one, it really was.
And I was sitting there at the end like, okay,
can I get an extra foul? Can I get a stop?
And then they foul and went by four or five,
and at drove on Asia hard to the basket and
(02:31):
got I mean the ball bounced off the I believe
it bounced off the backboard, then the front iron, then
the back iron, and then fell right in. I was
just like, oh, dude, that hurts. That really really hurts.
It's all good though. Asia Wilson didn't cash in game one.
Neither did Jackie Young, neither to send me would come.
(02:51):
But Melissa Smith got over those rebounds. It was plus
one y two, So I mean, hey, I'll take it.
I'll take it. Very very very poor showing in game one. However, however,
in game two, Jackie Young had thirty two points. So
(03:12):
Jackie Young Finals MVP is not off the table. Asia
has a clear lead right now, but is not off
the table. And then Chelsea Gray is leading and assists
right now, and that was a fourteen to one bet.
So there's some things that are going okay, some things
that are not. I have a couple of ways to
bounce back, and guess what, We've got a couple of
(03:34):
days to do it because we don't have games until Wednesday.
So I'm gonna break down two player props for you
today we'll get talking about some more stuff. The state
of the league is just in shambles, and honestly, from
what it sounds like, we better enjoy this WNBA basketball
right now because it doesn't sound like we're gonna it
doesn't sound like we're gonna get basketball in May, because
(03:56):
this lockout looks like it's coming and it doesn't look
like there's any way forward. So I'm gonna enjoy these
finals because I as it looks like we might not
be having a season on time next year if they
don't figure out this CBA thing. All right, back to
what we really really need to talk about here. First,
before we get to that, I gotta make sure I
(04:17):
mentioned hard Rock Bet. Get down on all the action
over there at hard Rock Bet. Look, it's Monday night football.
You can go and hop in and tap into some
of the streaks that hard Rock bet stats Hub has
going on. You can find lives to bet on all
the streaks in the app, like Korean Hunt has found
(04:38):
the end zone in six straight October games and rush
for thirty three yards in eight Monday night games in
a row. What in eight Monday night games in a row?
Right October? Shout out to those shoes. I used to
want those shoes back in the day to red October's
I did. I don't think I would wear them now,
but back when I was a kid, I wanted the
red ot sober shoes. Yeah. So make sure you go
(05:01):
check out hard rock Bets. If you haven't tried your
first hard rock bet, then it's still time for you
to get one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets.
All you gotta do is place a fight out of
the bet and if it hits, not only you get
your winnings, but you also get one hundred and fifty
dollars in bonus bets. So go dark download the hard
rep bet the hard Rock Bet app today and make
(05:23):
your first deposit.
Speaker 2 (05:24):
Payable and bonus bets not a cash offer offered by
the Seminole Tribe of Florida. In Florida offered by the
Seminal hard Rock Digital LLC. In other states, must be
twenty one and physically president Arizona, Colorado, and Florida, Illinois, Indiana,
New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, or Virginia to play. Terms and
conditions apply. Concerned about gambling in Florida called one eight
eight eight admit it in Indiana. If you are somebody
you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call
one eight hundred and nine with it. Gambling problem called
(05:46):
one hundred gambler in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, in New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, Virginia.
Speaker 1 (05:50):
All right, let's go a couple of player props here.
For Game three of the WNBA Finals, Aces dominated game
too one far and away. I mean the Mercury couldn't
hit anything. They were like shooting some seventeen percent from three.
(06:10):
I think Ka hit a couple of threes. Satsu hit
a couple of threes before she went down with an
ankle injury. She sounds like she's gonna be okay though,
at least that's what she said out her mouth. But
it is it is rough, and I mean a rough
seventeen percent from three in that game, they went from
(06:32):
thirty eight point nine percent to seventeen percent. That's how
they lost the game. Honestly, I mean not only could
they not get stops on the aces at all whatsoever,
but like that's a good portion of how they lost
this game. And of course, you know Asia had twenty
first half point she was going crazy. Jackie Young in
the third quarter with a twenty point third quarter, an
(06:54):
explosion twenty point third quarter for Jackie Young. So how
do we start game three? Well, one, we go ahead
and take advantage of a market that clearly the books
are not paying attention to. Because Melissa Smith played twenty
one minutes in that blowout game and she logged five rebounds.
(07:20):
The game before she played sixteen minutes log six rebounds.
Right now, Lilissa Smith's rebound prop is at four and
a half. Four and a half? Am I missing something?
Will am I? Because what's going on? How is this
(07:41):
number going down? She hid it in the past two games.
So because she came back and got five that last game,
we drop it to four and a half again. And
Melissa Smith the reason that we were on a rebounds
in game one. Listen to her rebounds against the Phoenix
Marker fifteen ten nine six nine five six five. She
(08:07):
hasn't gone under this. This is what they brought her
in for. This is what they needed. Becky Hammond needed
another rebounder. She needed another offensive scoring option, and she
felt like she could coach her up defensively. She hasn't
gone under this rebound problem once against this team. And
(08:29):
I get okay, she may not be at the fifteen
ten Melissa Smith in rebounds that she was doing in Indiana,
But what's going on here? Guys? Come on four and
a half on Melissa Smith. Let's just go ahead and
put that in the bay. I'm gonna run that bet
back until it doesn't hit, and it's hit the past
two games because they suck for some reason, dropped it
(08:49):
last game, and so I will take over four and
a half Smith. I'm sorry. Over four and a half
rebounds for Melissa Smith. It's way too low. I understand
she went in one lower last game, but she's been
very solid in getting five rebounds. I think she gets
another five, maybe even more so. Melis Smith over five
and a half rebounds. Play number one before we get
(09:12):
to play number two, got up, talk to you about
the Betting pros at where you can go get that
WNBA prop bet cheat sheet over there in the Betting
pros app our top player prop picks based on our projections,
and the sports book lines updated daily with recommended bets
in all stack categories. So head over there, check it out.
(09:33):
You can get points, rebounds, assists, three pointers, all of
that in WNBA prop bit she bettingpros dot com slash
WNBA props or download the Betting pros app All right,
second play. I understand why they dropped at points prop,
(09:54):
but they just dropped it too far at this point
and she didn't get their last game. Fine, I think
now back at home, down two games to none. This
is where the Phoenix Mercury and at Wake Up do
handle business. Eight's looking at her in the playoffs. She's
(10:15):
been over this in one, two, three, four, five, six,
seven of her nine playoff games already, she's been over
fourteen and a half points. She's actually had twenty eighteen, nineteen,
twenty one, twenty three. Now am I expecting her to
go and climb the ladder here? No? I'm not actually
playing the ladder on at because fifteen is about where
(10:36):
she stays. That's her average. That's about where she finds
herself At, especially playing against Asia Wills, because it is
really really hard to score on her inside of the paint.
As is giving her a whole bunch of space where
she's just daring her, and I mean daring At to
shoot the basketball. And so I think At gets a
lot more aggressive here, gets downhill, attacks her in the body,
(10:57):
very very physical, makes and forces her to defend. If
Asia is going to go out there and defend At,
she's going to have to really do it and not
just do it off of merit and where oh we
see Asian Wilson there, We're not going to force the ball,
No forcet of all to At and make her prove
she's the defensive player of the year, make her prove
how good she is, because At is still very very
(11:19):
strong when driving to the rim, and so coming back
home here, I think that we're going to see a
lot more aggressive At and going and finding her shot
so that that collapses the defense and maybe opens up
somebody else on the outside, because they missed a lot
of three pointers in that game, and their three pointers
get a lot better when At is very aggressive going
(11:40):
to the rim, and teams start collapsing on her or
just draw attention to her as she starts spreading the
ball around. So I think that this is a good
spot for At. Like I said, over in seven of
her last ten playoff seven of her last ten playoff games,
I like at to go over fourteen and a half
points here. She's been over fourteen and a half points
(12:03):
in four over last five games against the Aces. Four
over last five she's gone over fourteen and a half points.
So a little bit of juice here, but that's fine.
I'm willing to pay it. I think this is a
good spot where eighteen bounces back and does what she
always does. She gets about fifteen. Look at this sixteen fifteen,
seventeen fifteen, ten last five games. I think this is
(12:23):
a good spot. Is shoot even the game before that fourteen,
so this is literally right around her average. I feel
good with this. She had two under games these playoffs
and she's bounced back, so I think this is a
good spot for her to bounce back again. Give me
eight over fourteen and a half points, and that is
how we start the week. Two quick player prop bets.
(12:44):
I'll have more going over the course of the entire
week until we get to the game on Thursday. But
Melissa Smith over four and a half rebounds, eight over
fourteen and a half points two quick and easy get
me back on the board. I feel good about those.
With that, I'm Matt really real unerscorre unerscore. She give
me a follow on next Betting Pros on x saying
TikTok betting Pros, NFLA on instamming YouTube, dot com, sash
(13:04):
for betting Pros And with that, that's it. I have
nothing else saying nothing else to do, no other way.
If any of the podcasts is getting like this, we
are out of the
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