August 24, 2020 • 47 mins
Mike Blewitt and George Kurtz are back again for another edition of Football Full Circle! In this episode, the guys start off the show by discussing the new MNF crew. Then, Mike and George take a look at a bunch of different running back prop bets. They focus on players such as CMC, Zeke, James Conner, Derrick Henry, Le'Veon Bell, and Saquon Barkley. Who will win the NFL 2020 rushing title?
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Sports grid dot Com Betting insights and entertainment at your
fingertips as our team covers the most important topics in
sports wagering, real time odds, predictive betting models, expert picks,
and more. Want the edge than get on the grid
sports grid dot Com circle. Here on the Grid, Mike
(00:20):
and George talking to you about the NFL this fine
Sunday morning. And George, we have fantasy football season. We're
in the throes of it. We're gonna talk about it.
We're gonna talk about some player props too, fantasy adjacent,
more in the sports wagering category, but could matter for
those of you out there that owns some of that
are managing some of these players this season. So we'll
(00:43):
talk about some of those player props. But wanted to
start it off on it just sort of a standard
piece of news that happened in the NFL this week,
but a big promotion for Steve Levy, Brian Greasy and
Lewis Riddick. They are named as they knew Monday Night
Football Crew, and I'm Booker McFarland and Joe Testator. Where
previous crew, I think they received a lot of criticism.
I thought some of it was undue criticism, but nonetheless
(01:05):
they've been they make another change. They've been doing this
quite a bit, frankly this century, George, over the last
twenty years. I bet we can name six or seven
or eight different crews and we have yet another one.
But Leavy Riddick and Greasy Leaving and Greasy work together
a lot in college. They have done an NFL game,
They did Monday Night Football game last year, I believe.
(01:26):
But Lewis Riddick, who you and I both like a
lot as a critic on NFL Live and other shows,
will be a big, big addition to this crew. I mean,
you can see what ESPN is trying to do. That
trying to find the right combination that's right, right, guys
that are both entertaining and informative. It's not an easy
thing to do. They did also, remember they tried to
(01:46):
trade for al Michaels all right for NBC get him
up to Sunday nightcast and get him on the Monday
night football. That didn't work there. They've tried unsuccessfully to
get Peyton Manning for years now or fer anything he wants,
and he just won't take the job. They try to
get Tony Robo. He took really was more money to
stay with CBS, which is not surprised at what most
(02:07):
of us expected there. So you can't say they're not trying.
They certainly are. You know. I have two things here.
One as I like Steve Levy. I do like him
on the sports centers. He does the hockey as well,
so I mean a lot of hockey. How do you
I wanted your opinions specifically on this because he does
a lot of hockey. I think he's a good hockey announcer.
Do you think that I do as well? I like
(02:28):
his emotion. I like his uh it's almost like a
boyish enthusiasm. I would call and I enjoy it, you know.
I like Steve Levy like uh, And I said, I
am a hockey guy. He get gets on very well
with John Butcher, Gross Barry Melrose also with the ESPN,
and they have a great camaraderie there. I enjoy listening
to them. So yes, I like that I and you
already said, I am a big Lewis Riddick fan. I
like the fact that Louis Riddick seems to say what's
(02:50):
on his mind. He's not trying to sugarcoat things. He'll
tell you what he thinks. I think that's what you need.
You know. My my biggest criticism with John Crewd and
you already said this, was that everyone's great. Everybody was great,
and that's because he obviously, I don't know how many
years it took. Maybe he was ready for the right opportunity,
but he obviously wanted to get back in the NFL
and he doesn't want to rub anyone the wrong way.
(03:10):
The fact that it was there was a noticeable roller
coaster with him. George. When he first was on air
with ESPN, he was not critical at all. He had
just left the sidelines. To three years in he started
to feel his way and it was like he was
being more critical, he was rowing guys under the bus.
But then it changed again, and that's when we knew
that he was looking for a job on the sidelines again.
(03:32):
So it became antiseptic. I mean worthless to me, you know,
I just just really worthless with the guy's not going
to criticize and I listen't. I hope really doesn't change.
I wanted to be the person he is. Uh he
does or has tried to get a general manager's job,
and let's phase he probably should have one. He is
a guy who really should be considered for that job.
(03:54):
But I hope he doesn't do that. Right now, he's
going to turn into John Gruden too, because he doesn't
want to be nailed out of any jobs because he
criticized someone on that team, well, the owner, well the generalman,
the current generalman of the coach, whatever it might be.
I hope he feels free to say what he wants
there and let the chips full where they may. Uh.
So I am interested now, I am someone, Mike. I
(04:15):
think you know this. Most people do. I don't listen
to many games. I find most announcers to be terrible
and I don't like them, so I think they're worthless. Uh.
The Southern Night crew is it? Go? I do like
al Michaels and Collins, but I do listen. That's the thing.
I do listen to the primetime announcers. So Thursday night, ors,
Sunday nighters, Monday nighters, it's the only game on I
am listening to the announcers. Uh. The bulk of other
(04:37):
games we're watching red Zone, We're flipping back and forth.
I need some for some explanations. And frankly, uh, I
do the NFL package what's it called the NFL Online
Package game pass? I use that. So I watched condensed games,
and the only thing I hear I don't. I never
hear the color commentator because it's a thirty minute. It's
(04:59):
just over and over and over again. And so in
that sense, yeah, I am really more focused on the
prime time announcing teams. Here's why I think it's gonna work.
Greasy and Levy have worked together since seen doing premier
college football games. Leave has been calling games for ten years.
Greasy as well since two thousand nine. Leaves work for
ESPN since and we both like Riddick. He can step
(05:22):
in and do a game anytime he wants. And I
honestly think, because these guys work well together already, you
pair them or the Riddick, I think it's gonna work.
It should be noted at least A Salters is the
sideline reporters, will continue to do that. John Perry is
the officiating analysts, will continue to do that. That's why
I think it's gonna work. I think a lot of
times they're trying to match people together and hoping to
find some special sauce. Just pick the guys that work
(05:44):
together and do a good job. Already you add Lewis
Riddick in, he can, he can work with anybody. Guy's
tremendous on television. Yes, and I'm looking forward to it
a truly. I think it's I think it's something that
could work here. I think Spudo was supposed to realize. Listen,
the money I gave is no longer the Marquee gave.
It hasn't been and forever that's a Sunday night game.
Now they have the Marquee game. You quality games were
(06:05):
better last year, at least than previous years they were,
but they're they're not scheduled to be that way. They're
just not. You know, Sunday night gets the best, Thursday
Night gets the worst because every team has to be
represented in prime time at least once, and ESPN is
somewhere between the two, you know, the Monday night game.
This is once again, it's just the way it is here.
So we welcome in our radio audience for this final minute,
just cover the game, being formative, and you know it's you.
(06:29):
You're announcing a football game. It's not life and death.
You're announcing a football game, be excited about when place happened.
Get the fans with you is this year is a
trying year for these guys because it's gonna be no
fans in the stands, so no jews, right, you don't
have to feel it, no lotricity going on there. So
it's an interesting year to have a new booth. But
well being, I mean, I don't think that story was
(06:50):
all that bad, but I can't see this being any
worse than it was the past couple of years. I
think it has to be an improvement. Yeah, I always
feel like people banging. Look, if you want, if you
want a sure fire away to get sports fans to
disagree with you, tell them that you'd like an announcer.
Guarantee fifty of them will disagree with you. I guarantee it.
We'll come back. We're gonna talk player props next on
(07:13):
football full Circle. Get on the Grid sports grid dot
Com betting insights and entertainment at your fingertips as our
team covers the most important topics in sports wagering, real
time odds, predictive betting models, expert picks, and more. Want
the edge than Get on the Grid sports grid dot
Com Back on the Grid Mike and George talking about
(07:40):
player props, specifically running back totals. We've done a lot
of player props this offseason. I think we'll start stacking
them up as we get closer to the season. I'll
give you a sense of what we think of these
player props on FanDuel, but first follow us on Twitter
at sports Grid on Instagram, at sports grid tv, at
George Kurtz, at Mike Blewett on Twitter. So, George, running
(08:01):
back totals, this is rushing and receiving yards. Do some
combos here. We're gonna take them one by one. I
will say in general, running back props seasonal running back
props aren't my favorite for the reason that we talk
about with UM fantasy. The second the injury happens, it's
(08:23):
over ah, and there's a greater chance that running back
is gonna get hurt and miss out on some of
these huge totals that I'm about to announce UM and
just really miss an opportunity. Even missing two or three
games for running backs put some of these wagers in jeopardy.
Thoughts about maybe running back props versus QB or wide receiver. Oh,
(08:45):
I agree with you, i'd have to be, and so
I was certainly want to put a large amount of
money on these props. Uh, not of the main guys,
because you are worried about injury. Let's face it, they
talked about twenty times a game. They're getting tackled twenty
times a game maybe everything. Then they get pushed out
of bounds with getting a lot of three hundred pound
men fully on you, a lot of guys around your legs,
a lot of car crashes. That's really what every tackles.
(09:05):
It's a car crash. So I'm very very I play
so many weekly player props that I don't feel as
much of a need to do it for running batch
for the season, I would say, but we'll try to
find you the best values here. Um, I see if
there's any juice on any of these. Nothing significant on
any of these, So minus one twelve in both directions,
(09:29):
so I'm gonna rip them off. Alvin Kamara started off
with him George one thousand, five hundred, twenty four and
a half yards. Again, it's rushing and receiving total. Can
you get to five? What do you think? A little
math here? Sixteen? It's ninety five yards a game. That's
(09:51):
what it comes out to, ninety five yards a game.
It certainly seems doable. I mean, let's look at last year.
Last year, now we found out he was hurt pretty
severely early on, right, we found that outdoor. It was
week two, week three when you are says he heard
his knee. There he still had twelve so you know,
(10:13):
he started nine games played in fourteen. So you think,
I listen, the starting thing doesn't bother two touches, which
the year before the things you have to seventy five
twenty three, you're not gonna you're not gonna get to
the total, you know, I mean Irish five yards. He
got his five yards of touch. There was actually twenty
three carries on gives you know, the hundred and fifteen yards.
(10:35):
It doesn't get him there. And I had fourteen and
change in two in in twenties eighteen and to seventy
five touches fifteen hundred ninety two yards. So he cleared that,
but cleared that, but he had a lot more touches there.
You know, the Saints are early team that's going to
play more towards the bowler. They want to win. They
have they don't need to overwork him here thirteen started
(10:57):
a long way to say. I can say a lot
of negatives. Here is why I won't do this. So
I'm not gonna do it. I also, I don't think
he's gonna be the kind of guy that you could say, oh,
he's definitely staying healthy. I don't think he's built that way.
So I think this guy who was more susceptible to
injury than other players, I want to get to fifteen.
You know, he's not built like a little like a
(11:18):
brick wool here. I'm gonna cleared it his rookie year two,
but he was. He had seven points seven yards per
touch as a rookie. I don't think we're getting back there,
certainly not this season. Uh So, all right, so we're
gonna pass on Kamara? Would you say the under or
pass for you? I would lead towards the under, I would.
(11:39):
I wouldn't do that. I mean, listen, a small amount, sure,
get a lot of root against Alvin Kamara. I'm not
doing that one. Christian McCaffrey eighteen hundred ninety nine and
a half. So he's got to get to nineteen a
hundred yards. George, do your math and I'll do your
math and I'll tell you where he where he was
at the last couple of years. Obviously, he hit this
(11:59):
total last year nine yards. The previous year he hit
it as well at nineteen sixty, So regression expected by
the books. What do you think here, Well, it's a
hundred nineteen yards a game. It's worth that is a lot.
I mean, love me, you bet he's hit it. Uh
we You and I both expect once again this team
(12:19):
to be trailing a lot, a lot of high scoring
games coming out of Carolina. H He'll be a big
part of it. Man, He'll be a big part of it.
Teddy Bridge Water. His history tells us he doesn't throw
the ball into the secondary. He likes those check down throws,
you know, little short pairs at the line of scrimmage. Here,
can you remember how many passes he caught last year? McAffrey,
(12:42):
did you catch over a hundred? I don't think he
could over a hundred, but my one hundred and sixteen George, Yeah,
damn is right. Four hundred and three times he touched
the ball. They were bad offensively, and he still did that.
I'm gonna say I once again, I'm not doing it
but I would leave the over here. I think he
(13:02):
does eclipse that mark. Again, it's gonna have to go
really sideways for him for him not to do it. Now,
there's tons of data to suggest regression, but there would
also be data to suggest regression from three hundred and
twenty six touches and sixty five yards, which he did
(13:23):
two years ago, and then he got eighty more touches
and he got four hundred more yards. So, um, I
don't expect him to go up from here. But if
you bring it back to three hundred and fifty touches,
George with your math, what is that three fifty to
get a three fifty two? Uh? Yeah, he's got to
(13:46):
get the hundred and would you say hundred nineteen yards
in game? So he needs the only needs the average
five point four yards touch. That would be the lowest
of his career. I think three hundred fifty touches stuff.
I guess once, if you wanna play Devil's Advocate, what
you're worried about besides an injury, injury is worried about
with everybody, would be that there is better. I mean,
(14:08):
maybe Bridgewood has throws about to more people more receivers.
You know they had Kyle Allen last year. They a
bunch of I'm worried about them not controlling the ball enough,
is what I'm worried about. I think their defense is
going to be on the field for long stretches, and
I think that they will have to throw more. I
(14:28):
wonder if it hurts his catch total, Like I could
see his catches dipping below a hundred for the first
time since his rookie year. By the way, the year
before he had a hundred and seven catches, So I'll
be worried about him his uh, his touches dipping below that.
But that I feel like a fun shark if I
bet the Christian McCaffrey under. So if you're taking it,
(14:49):
I'd go with the over. I think it's low enough
that I feel good about the over. I wouldn't pass
on it, and I don't think it's going under. So
that's where I'm at with McCaffrey. Derrick Henry fifteen hundred
and nine and a half yards, so he's got to
get to fifteen ten George, that's under hundred yards of game. Well,
you know you're not getting much from him as far
as the receiving game is concerned now passes last year.
(15:13):
I think from memory serves me, that's that's a whole
past and a half A game you need yards pretty
much a game here he caught during the regular season. Yikes,
one catcher game. Uh? Is he getting ninety five yards
a a game? Here? Now? You're not really worried about
anybody taking carries away from him, right, I mean we
(15:35):
both like Evans to something degree, but I don't think
Evan's gonna be a major part of the game plan.
He I've already said it. This team runs through Henry. Literally,
they need him to be Henry. You know, if this
office to survive. What I'm always gonna be worried about
is an injury. He's not. He's not elusive. He's looking
to hurt you. He's looking to hit piece are okay,
So he's looking to hurt you, look and hit you,
which means he's gonna get hit a lot. Only take
(15:55):
he doesn't need. The engine might just slow down one
of the nagging injury we've seen that in the as
from him, I kind of lean under here, got the
big contract to the new context or maybe the other
motivation is not quite as there. He basically got what
amounts to a two year deal, George. So if I'm
playing Devil's advocate, I say, look, they're gonna they're gonna
run until the wheels fall off. But they do need
(16:17):
him for next year too. He got three hundred three
carries last year, he received twenty four targets eighteen catches,
so for a total of three one touches. He had
seventeen six last year five point four yards per touch.
A very successful season. But man, he basically has to
duplicate that to I think I'm the same and I
(16:41):
don't think that's a disaster for the Titans. I think
if Derrick Henry ripped off fourteen hundred yards fourteen hundred
and fifty yards instead of seventeen six, I still think
that they can be successful. It's about them getting it
done in the playoffs. I think this is a playoff team.
Can they duplicate what they did to New England in
Baltimore last year? That's gonna be a tall order. It
(17:03):
really will be. The success to this team isn't Derrick
Henery being marginally better. It's Tannehill being a lot more
successful and then being a more versatile offense when it
comes to the playoffs. That's my opinion. At least you
can notice me. I agree with you. I think they
need UH to have a little bit more of a
threat in the passing game for Harry to succeed. We'll
(17:23):
come back, We'll talk a little bit more about this
set of player props. It's running backs. Next on Football
Full Circle. Get on the Grid sports grid dot Com
Betting insights and entertainment at your fingertips as our team
covers the most important topics in sports wagering, real time odds,
predictive betting models, expert picks, and more. Want the edge
(17:44):
than Get on the Grid sports grid dot Com. Back
on the Grid, talking about running back props this season
in the NFL. Start with your boy on this segment,
George One, Zeke Elliott. In fact, you're not looking at
(18:05):
it right now, so I will. I'm gonna pose it
as a tribute question. What would you said, Zeke Elliot's
total at total rushing and receiving yards. What would you
say to that? Seventeen fifty? Wow, really good. You're good
at this, seventeen thirty four and a half. So you
gotta get to seventeen thirty five. You think Zeke's doing it.
(18:29):
It's doesn't mean I think he's doing it. I just
know he had thirteen hundred and someone yeards rushing last year.
Give another full hundred receiving seventeen sounded good. So once again,
let's do a little math here, because I think this
is important to do the math. Uh six, Oh, it's
a hundred ten yards a game. Now he's gonna average
imagine eight yards rushing for games he needs forty yards passing.
(18:51):
It's a lot to ask. I mean, I don't think
that's gonna be looking to use him in the passing game,
oh that much. That year he goes, hey, we got Cooper,
we got a Gallup, we got ceedee Land, and we
got Blake Jarwin. The Cowboys really like a tight end.
So I don't know how many passes he's going to
receive here. So he may need to up that rushing
total a bit really to get that there, which he
(19:12):
might be able to do because once again, off the
line is still solid. It's not as good as used
to be, but it's still solid. I think team's gonna
back off a little bit. I did, They're gonna say,
you know what, we'd have a die by the knife
and Elliott than a gun with Cooper Gallop at ceedee lamb.
You know. And uh so I think once again I did.
They'll back up the safeties a little bit there. I'm
gonna take the under here. Now, see the elier I
(19:34):
think you know he had when you look at his
numbers last year, Mike looks good right, solid yere because
he only had four rushes of woman twenty yards. That's terrible.
And he did and despite the fact that he caught
fifty four passes. Look, I thought I thought the narrative
with him not being a pass catcher early in his
(19:55):
career was incorrect. But I don't think he's an elite
pass catcher as a running back. He did catch for
four passes last year and seventy seven the year before,
so that was a positive trend for him and for
fantasy managers however, and and wagerers. But I don't know
that he's elite. There's a lot of video out there
of him dropping a lot of passes too, so it
could have been better than it actually was. Yeah, I
(20:16):
just don't think that was gonna I'm gonna need him
to be that guy. Yeah, I think they're gonna try
They're gonna put the bull into the secondary with these
receivers here. So uh, I'm gonna go slightly under here.
Although one thing, once again, when I played Devil's Advocate, well,
maybe the reason why he didn't have the explosive runs
last year was because he held out that new contract,
you know, so maybe that had a part of the
(20:37):
two he's in camp obviously now, although once again he
had COVID earlier early on in the spring summer time.
He played sixteen games too, though, I mean he had
in his career. He has hit this number every three
of the four years of his career. He did not
hit it in ten because he was suspended six games,
but um last year was seventeen seventy seven. Two thousand
(21:00):
one before that is rookie year. It was just a
shade under two thousand and the year that he missed
six games, it was twelve fifty two. Uh. We we
have a lot of expectations for this offense, Georgia. I
just can't see Zeke not still not being the biggest
part of it. I'm gonna go over on this one.
I understand it's a pretty big number, but I think
(21:21):
we're all pretty bullish on this Cowboys offense. If it
doesn't work out, if it doesn't work out with Mike McCarthy,
just get out of the way. I don't know what's
going to happen. Like if this team goes eight and
eight again. Ah, I can't say I'm leaving for it
because you're a Cowboys fan. But I don't know what
will happen because it's all hands on deck. This is
a team that has to win. It's high expectations now,
(21:44):
like they are in the mix to win a super Bowl.
That's the roster that's in front of Mike McCarthy. Correct,
it's a good roster. I mean, like I said, the
only obvious weakness is in the secondary. It's a good
Cowboy roster. Uh, there's no reason why they if they
don't make the plans, we get eight and they don't
make the playoffs with an extra a wild card. I agree.
I mean, you're in You're in a division. Let's face it,
(22:05):
Giants bad Washington bad. Eagles are good. You know that
you could lose a division. I can see that the
Eagles on. I think the Cows are ahead of the
Eagles with Eagles on that far behind. So I wouldn't
get on McCarthy for not winning a division. I could
see you winning eleven games, but the Eagles win a
tiebreaker or they go twelve and four. That wouldn't shock me.
But if you would have missed the playoffs by going
you said eight and eight or even nine and seven, yikes?
(22:27):
Yeah yeah. Uh. James Conner is the next one on
the list. Come on, man, I didn't get out of
the gate on this Another guy I can't stay healthy?
What how dare you? I'm looking up his numbers from
last year? What do you think they set the number at.
I'm gonna make you guess this one now too. Oh god, um,
(22:51):
I mean he's on the board. There's only six or
seven guys on this whole list, so that's pretty good. Guess.
Actually twelve four and a half, so you're a little light,
but that's not Uh James Conner here we go. Uh.
Last year obviously was banged up ten games. Terrible, terrible,
terrible offense. He only carried the ball on a hundred
(23:12):
and sixteen times, only a hundred fifty touches for seven
hundred and fifteen yards. The previous year, which is really
the year that he came into his own was eighteen.
He started twelve games, played in thirteen two hundred and
seventy touches for fourteen hundred and seventy yards. George, he's
got Ben back, Juju back? Um, what do we think?
(23:34):
What do you think? Do you think it's way under it?
But you're you're saying, I don't think it's based on
a health, based on a health guest, Yeah, minus is
definitely the health. I mean, once again, you can make
the argument Ben is back. Teams don't worry about running
game anymore or not as much. I shouldn't say anymore,
but not as much. But I don't think he's gonna
play sixteen games. History tells us never has, right, History
tell us he won't. I'm not Benny Snell Samuels. I mean,
(23:57):
nice guys could take some carries away here and there,
so I thinks that big threat there. I think they
wanted system guy. Right, History tells us that they are.
I don't think you play sixteen so that he might
need to get that total that we're talking about in
thirteen games, which two years ago it was you can't
it's possible. Imagine you just said it's twelve thirty four.
That's less than hundred yards of game. About ninety six, Well, fan,
(24:19):
it is ninety six. That's what he would need if
he only placed thirteen games. But but now what was
twelve games? Now you over a hundred yards of game.
It's tougher. Now you're putting up an elite category. And
I just don't know if I can bet bet on that.
I leaned once again. Is not something I would definitely
do here, but I would lean under here. This is
my favorite one so far. I'm going over. I just
(24:41):
think based on the I think numbers too low. Yes,
you're going to deal with the risks that we just
talked about, but the number pushed low enough that I
think it's my favorite one. You know, I don't know
anybody is a sure fire under um yet. I'm really
worried about Henry. I just think regression is abound to
happen there at in ten yards when there's only one
(25:01):
way to get it. I just don't like that one
at all. But James Conner, I think it's my favorite
one here. I think the number is low enough. You
did the math. I just think that he can get there,
even if it's only thirteen games. So next one former
stealer Levian Bell. What do you think this number is?
How is Gays gonna use? And how can anybody even
(25:22):
know what the number is? Here? He's probably his last
season with the team, right, I know cares not definitely
his last season with the team. Might be Gays is
last season with the team. This also could be true.
Really good, you're nailing these, George twine and a half,
so he's got to get too exactly hundred. You can
(25:43):
do the math and I'll look up his stats here
for everybody, uh and rip them off. And they are
Levian Bell's touches last year and what was an absolutely abysmal,
non functioning office offense at times three d eleven touches
last year for twelve fifty so he didn't get there.
(26:03):
Offense is really bad. He did catch sixty six passes.
H That's really all I have to go off. I
can give you his his career stats with the Steelers,
but we know he was a monster in Pittsburgh. Four
hundred six touches for six yards three thirty six four
one year he got hurt three seventy to eighty nine
(26:25):
for twelve fifty nine that's all the way back to
his rookie year. The one year he got hurt was
one seven for six nine two. But George, I mean
he puts up this number. He puts up when he's healthy. Um,
My logical brain tells me that. All right, Look, I
didn't want you to be here, but you're here. This
is me being Adam Case. I didn't want you to
(26:48):
be here, but you're here. We got rid of a
bunch of guys were clearing cap space. But I got
to try to win some games here. I gotta help
Sam develop. We're gonna use you to the best of
our ability. I don't know I'm gonna throw you the
ball seventy eight times like I did last year, right
on that number, but I need you to hear we're
(27:09):
gonna try it. We're gonna utilize you touching the ball
twenty times a game in order to get us to
win some games. That makes sense. Listen, we all know
that Bell should crush this number. It's only eighty one
yards a game for a guy who catched the ball
and received the ball. He should crush this number. We
think the Jets will have a better offensive line, right,
you draft the number one guy, you make some free
(27:31):
agent editions. Granted the free agents nothing really to grow
home about what you're hoping the UH they'll play well together.
There's really what you're hoping for their UH. Gays has
to win games. He's not some going to go you
know what, I'm playing for the future here. I don't care.
He's not gonna have a future. The problem is, have
you seen who their first four opponents are? Yeah, Buffalo,
(27:54):
San Francisco, just have a bad schedule, Indianapolis, Denver. It's
a bad schedule. I mean, he could be so far
behind me. He's eighty one yards a game, but those
first four games he might need a hundred ten yards
a game for the rest of the season. Surpassed that number,
you know, something silly like that, and he's a Buffalo again.
He's got the Chargers here. I mean, wow, it's like
you're playing a lot of good run defenses in the
(28:17):
first half of year schedule. It does get better in
the second half. It gets better as far as run defenses.
But man, hard to like it here. Everything tells me
he should go over. He's too good at back. Gates
needs to win games. He can't play the long game here.
I don't care. If we win, I'll get the mind
the top draft pick got Jamal Adams trade. You know,
I get those picks as well here and we'll read
the the benefit. I think Gates has gone to at
(28:37):
the end of this year along with Bell. If things don't,
if things turn up with three and thirteen season, I
don't I think Jet fans will be calling for his head.
But they'll have no choice here. They'll have to get
rid of him. So I he said, logic, All logic
tells me this should be over. But the Jets. You're
to logic out the window with the Jets. I can't
bet on the Jets offensively this year. That's my final answer.
(28:58):
So uh say, and Barkley is how we're gonna land
the plane? We only got about thirty seconds left. Seventeen
hundred and fifty rights at number. Yeah, it's the biggest
one on here other than McCaffrey set off. They can
throw the candidate for touches. George, I'll take the over.
(29:22):
Just stay healthy. He turned that anchor on the Tampa
Bay game with us year. Don't do that again. I'll
take the over. But man, that's a lot. He did
it as a rookie with three hundred and fifty two
touches last year obviously banged up to sixty nine touches
for fourty one. So if you can land somewhere in
the middle, he hits it. So all right, we'll come back.
We'll talk a little bit of fantasy football after this.
(29:42):
On the grid. It's Mike and George. We're FC sports
grid dot Com Betting insights and entertainment at your fingertips
seven as our team covers the most important topics in
sports wagering, real time odds, predictive betting models, expert picks,
and more want the edge than get on the grid
sports grid dot Com. Back on the Grid, Mike and
(30:07):
George talking about wrapping up the running back props, and
then we'll get into fantasy fantasy football a little bit.
So um, most regular season rushing yards prop. There's plenty
of guys on here. I'm going to rip off the
top few. Derrick Henry plus seven fifties, Zeke Elliott plus
(30:28):
nine fifty, Nick Chubb plus nine fifties, s Kwon Barley
Barkley plus nine fifty, McCaffrey plus eleven hundred. Keep in mind,
this is regular season rushing yards only Dalvin Cook at
plus fourteen hundred, Josh Jacobs hundred, Miles Sanders two thousand,
marahe most are two thousand, Kamar hundred, Carson hundred, Colyde Edwards.
(30:49):
Where's James Conner? Where is James Conner? All the way
down to plus thirty one hundred, and they misspelled his name?
Come on, Fandel and she's kidding. I mean, I'm not
kidding if thing that's spelled it, but come on, let's
clean it up anyway. Ah, tell me who you're a
rushing champ is. I had you write it down, alright,
So I did write down seven names here, and you
(31:10):
actually mentioned all seven Elliott Barb, Big Chub Cook, Uh,
Derrick Henry, Christian McCaffrey, and Josh Jacobs. Yes, it takes
me a second. My handwriting is terrible. So even reading
my own hand reading stuff here, now, I was crossing
off one by one as during the break here. I'm
gonna go with Dalvin Cook. He's a plus like the
(31:31):
odds day. I'll tell you why. Ah. Yeah, he has
an injury history. That's why his numbers down there. Uh,
he's I guess a holdout could be a threat. I
don't think it's going to happy as zero leverage, but no,
Stefon Dix, I can't really throw the balls. What did
you want? And we know Mike Zimma likes to run
the football. He's come out and set. That's pretty much
why he fired the offensive coordina or two years ago,
(31:52):
because they weren't running enough for his liking and he
got that hurt the team here. So I think Dalvin
Cook's gonna get the ball early and often miss Madison.
There is a threat, but Massi is not gonna take
a starting job. He'll take away some carries, absolutely, But
you can say that with everybody on this list, with
the exception of Barkley, right, Zekiel Elliott's got to deal
with Pollard. You know, Chubb's got Kareem Hunt. Henry has
(32:13):
nobody too, but we already said we don't think Henry
is there. And Christian McCaffrey is gonna get the overall
yardage leader, but not really a threat to get the
rushing yards. Josh Jacobs is an interesting pick for me.
I actually almost almost took him over Cook here, sort
of the lower level guy here. Plus do like that,
but I'm gonna go with Dalvin Cook. I like it.
(32:36):
I mean, you had some logic theory that I agree with.
I think that I'm I think the problem with this
prop is that a lot of times we think of
running backs in their total impact on games, right, but
you understand that it's rushing only, and I look at
it as rushing only. I think, my guys that i'd
(32:56):
really be looking at I think to stick in the
NFC East, I think it's Zeke or Barkley. Um, I
know what Chubb has become for No are the reasons that,
in my opinion, that Kareem Hunt is there obviously as
an asset as well. Chubb has become exclusively like a
running back and they're gonna let him carry the ball
(33:18):
as many times as possible. H McCaffrey, I don't think
he's a real challenge for this. I think if we're
talking about total yours, McCaffrey's right in the mix. Obviously
we just went through those props, but I'll keep it
between those two. I think your your logic makes sense.
With Cook, the only I mean, Miles Sanders, Josh Jacobs
(33:40):
says the wild cards, I could see that. I think
Raheem Moster no chance I liked Tevin Coleman frankly as
a sleeper pick in fantasy draft this year. I think
that's virtually all right. We'll talk about him next thing.
But Joe Mix and Aaron Jones, a few other names
out there, but I'd keep it between Barkley and z
Maybe smaller wagers on those two as we go down
(34:03):
the list a little bit. Uh, Maybe like Josh Jacobs,
doesn't bother you that McCarthy is known to throw the football.
They like to throw the football, and you think the
l actually came out this week and said we have
Dallas guys will run the football. I said, uh, I
mean once again, maybe because you like to throw the football.
Because he never had a running back in Green Bay
(34:24):
for the most part, right, I think that's a challenge. Sure,
I think that I think this offense though as much
as I joke around and bust chops, the only thing
that worries about about me about the offense is that
so many other people like it. I started to get
a little nervous when everybody likes the teams that I
like for the same reasons that I like it. I
(34:45):
think I'm I'm in an echo chamber a little bit
too much, so I try to take a step back,
think a little bit more critically and wonder if I'm
just I'm hearing all this noise that's convincing me of it.
But when you look at the weapons, I just think
they have an opportunity to be a really efficient offense
and I can help a zeek. Does it get on
the rushing title, I don't know, but I'm at tend
(35:06):
to one here, so I got tend to one on
him in Berkeley, and I feel like one of those
two will win it. Josh Jacobs is it would be
my long shot. I just think that they'll force the ball.
But I don't think the Raiders offense is going to
be particularly great. I think Jacobs has just see so
many carries. Gruden's gonna play at old school and just
give him the ball three hundred and fifty times that
(35:27):
that that can just get you there at some point,
right gives you there by volume. I'm sure I don't listen.
I don't have any problem your logic either. I certainly
think bark is gonna have a great year, you know, Elliot,
I don't think he's helped with the rushing time. I
think he'll get his share of yards. But I do
wonder if he says not the back of everything he
is that's going on me as well. You watch him,
like I said, you watch the last couple of years,
(35:48):
not a lot of impressive plays. It's more like, because
you get so many opportunities, the yards build up compiler,
you know, that's sort of thing rather than a highlight
harsh Well, I mean that's what he was last year
for whatever reason, a lot of miles. He came into
out of shape last year too. That was a big
thing that he maybe need to lose some weight. Uh,
we haven't heard any of that this year, right, Apparently
(36:11):
he's a good shade there. I just think Dallas the
fact that they can throw the ball. I mean, they
should be able to throw the ball up and down
the field. So you took this in a different direction.
We're gonna try to talk about fantasy in the in
the last half, but I'll ask you really quick in
the next minute, who would you take over him? Do
you mean in fantasy? No, you're an nfology. You're like
(36:36):
thinking the best running backs. I would take Barkley. Yea.
They both have big contracts. There's a lot of guys
that would take over because that a contract, but we're
taking the contracts out of it. When I take McCaffrey,
I probably would. I probably would. Mccarvery's closed because that
you want. Do you want to running back? Who can
do with McCaffrey does? Do you want a real running back?
(36:56):
But the cab something you can do what McCaffrey does.
He's a more dynamic play make her. Then you're probably
take a McCaffrey, right, you'd have to. He's a damn
good running back, and you know he's the best gub,
best catch the ball ever, that's probably it. I don't
know if I would take anybody else over him. And
Henry's more of a one trick pony. I want more
than that. Who No, I don't trust his health. I
(37:19):
don't think he's ever gonna be able to stay healthy
or fully health. He might play, but always be banged up.
I want more of a prototypical guy here. I'm looking
at my list here. Nick Chubb would be close. WHOA,
that's high praise for Nick Chubb's not like the job,
and they've always liked Nick Chub. But the only guys
I definitely would without a doubt would be Barkley and
cmc okay. Let's switch it over to Fantasy Pros came
(37:41):
out with a list earlier this week talking about top
consensus sleepers from their staff and from all the UH
from all the fantasy football experts, ranking guys based on
how they're being drafted right now. So the top consensus sleepers.
Orge Gardner Minshew came in as the top consensus sleeper
(38:05):
amongst all players that he is being drafted far lower
than is being expected. So they compared their draft results
and mock draft results to where the experts have them ranked,
and Gardner Minshew came out on top of one of
the top sleepers. UH. Next one on the list, Blake Jarwin.
(38:28):
Next one on the list, John O. Smith. I'll rip
off a few and then we can talk about him.
Teddy Bridgewater. Antonio Gibson, although I will note that the
Antonio Gibson news probably changed from the time this article
was written on Tuesday to today Sunday because mock drafts
have changed dramatically. Antonio Gibson flying up boards. UM, I
(38:50):
think it's way too much. I'm gonna let other people
take Antonio Gibson, who didn't even touch them all that
much in college. I understand the upside, I understand the ability.
I get it. You guys could luck if you hit
on Antono Gibson, more power to you. I'm gonna pass
because he's now too expensive. How about any of those guys,
Jarwin and Jonah Smith? I like them both, but now
that tight end position is well I I I generally
(39:15):
have a lot of problems with sleeper columns because Johnny's
the players they pick are not sleepers. I've read one
column the other day that that t Y Hilton as
a sleeper. Why he's an All Pro wide receiver? Right,
How's he a sleeper? It made no sense to me,
and uh As gets the easy way out. I don't
want the players they picked. I would give you a sleepers.
The problem is, how can Gardener Minshew or Teddy brit
(39:36):
Bridge want to be sleepers if you pay if you're
playing a super flex league, sure, but in one quarterback league,
how are you gonna get them into the top twelve.
I think I think that has to be assumed for
those two. If you're saying super flex, then fine, because
they're both outside the top twenty four. Minshew, I'm looking
to espns with this at number twenty four. Do you
think either of them can be in the top twelve
at the end of the year. No, No so much.
(39:59):
Vo they're both gonna stink. They're both going. There's so
many good quarterbacks, and listen, it's the guys who are
there not not even talk about top tier guys, Alan Breeze,
Stafford Rodgers, Daniel Jones, Roethlisberger, Newton, Tannehill, Golf Mayfield Cousins.
I mean, they're gonna have to pass all these guys
(40:20):
to get to the top twelve, every one of them.
And then you talk about the bet. Then the number
one guy's Jackson, Mahomes, Watson, Murray, Dack, Wilson, Ryan, Tom
Brady Wentz. How about Drew Lock Any chance to her
end to get in the top twelve? Once again, probably not.
I think the volume is going to be there for
him to be that person. I think they can get
right now, what's appe looking at them? They have Lock
of Twente's funny she mentioned minshewa Bridge. Do I think
(40:42):
they can get the top sixteen? Sure? I do think
they can get up there and move up a seven
eight spots, but move up even further than that, you
would need injuries to replace these guys. So I like.
I like the fact that they put these guys through
the sleeper because they are sleepers. I like that. But
to be quarterback ones at the end of the fantasy year,
I mean, could one of the three happened? Sure? I
mean it certainly could. Mitch's gonna throw the ball a ton.
(41:05):
The Jaguars are probably praying he doesn't end up being
a quarterback one because that would mean maybe they win
some more games, and they would have thought Drew Lock
certainly has that he has the wide receivers to do
it right. They they went heavy on the wide receivers
right there. Maybe that could happen there, but I don't
see it. It's just that we're so deep in quarterbacks
now where it was so strong that I don't see it.
I do like the two tight ends you mentioned, yeah,
(41:27):
with Gleat Jarwin engine new Smith once again there down
there in the upper once a gonna. I'm going up
ESPN's list here at two twenty two. And do I
think they can move up? Yes? I do, because what's
we're not as deep at tight end. I can see
guys folding off low for those two, I think it
want to get there. Well, maybe once again Jarwin, no
(41:50):
one knows about him, right, I've seen him and he's well,
you look at Jarwin, you certainly want to start it
when he's playing with Giants. I think the guy's five
three touchdowns get the Giants, and we had three in
one game to get two another game kills the Giants.
But then again, what tight end doesn't. But there's a
lot of question marks the tight end, right if we
have to get through the first couple of guys that's
unlike the quarterbacks. Okay, do you think Jared Cook's gonna
(42:10):
do it? I think no offense, Gronk and Tampa Bay.
I don't know Hawkinson, Gazicky Herndon, you know guys that
you just don't know here, Ebron got it? Do you
like TUSA Titans in Philadelphia? You know there are guys
that you could see and obviously moving up in the
pecking order here. So I like the tight ends. I do.
If you're gonna wait on tight end, which let's face it,
if you're not gonna spend a top three year pick
(42:30):
on top three round pick on Kelsey Kittle and Andrews,
you might as well, wait, you must wait till the
end and take a shot at somebody. We talked about
running backs a lot. We got about a minute to go.
I'm gonna rip off the listed running backs ye're in
fantasy pros. Of all the sleepers that that have been listed,
I'm not including Antonio Gibson, who's at the top of
their list, because we already know he's This article probably
(42:51):
influenced it to some extent. Here's the rest. J K. Dobbins,
Jordan Howard, Zack Moss, Matt Breed and Boston Scott, James White,
Tevin Coleman, my guy, Chase Dman's, Josh Kelly, DeAndre Washington,
Duke Johnson, Damien Harris. Of those guys, who do you like?
To really who I like? Who do I fantasy wise?
(43:13):
I'd want Jordan Howards. I think what you say yesterday.
He's gonna fall into the end zone seven times and
look like that. Like people don't like having players like
that because he's not exciting, he's not a versatile back.
But if better than it was, which it could be,
he's gonna fall into the end zone six times, and yeah,
you might not know every week to play him, but
(43:34):
if you're playing the zero RB game. Jordan Howard probably
gets six eight touchdowns this year. That's why you end
up trapping. He's my guy. So he's my guy because
I think he's gonna be the touchdown guy. I'm big.
I'm big on a touchdown guy. That's a good guy
to be good, good guy to be big on. So
we'll come back. We'll close out the show. Close out
the hour with George. Next on FFC sports grid dot Com,
(43:58):
Betting insides and entertain even at your fingertips as our
team covers the most important topics in sports wagering, real
time odds, predictive betting models, expert picks, and more. Want
the edge than get on the grid sports grid dot
Com closing out this hour of Football Full Circle. Thank
(44:19):
you to our producer Brian Rokowski. George and I I've
trying to find some positive news in all of this, right, George,
we've been building towards an NFL season. We didn't know
if it was going to happen. We think things can
get screwed up, but good news this week. As far
as the COVID list is concerned. What was that the
only five players as a Thursday only five players are
(44:40):
still on the COVID I l in the NFL on
all the rosters, so that would seem to be a
big time positive. That is a huge positive. There's eighty
guys per team right now, times thirty two. You're the
math guy here. That's a lot of that's a lot
of guys. So uh so, there we are. We're down
(45:01):
to five guys now. Not all those guys are bubbled
up being there, some of them. A lot of the
rookies have just seen from hard knocks. A lot of
the rookies are living in team hotels, so they're in
a bubble of sorts hotel and practice facility and back.
But a lot of these other guys are going home.
I think the negatives that the Mets were sort of
(45:23):
taking care of business and the Mets got isn't that
the word in the NFL though baseball Baseball didn't have
a problem when they were practicing either. It's when they
started traveling to other cities and maybe guys are going out.
Isn't as bad as we thought. Well, you say that,
and the NFL players don't travel, they don't go on
road trips like baseball players too. They're not in hotels
(45:47):
like that. They're in hotels one night a week, sometimes too.
Baseball now they still think today's day. I think today
is actually day thirty of baseball not having to not
being able to play a full game schedule. It's been
released one game canceled now for thirty days here. Granted
last Wednesday one of those games as a rain out,
they would have had all thirty was. It wasn't COVID related,
(46:08):
But the other twenty nine days are COVID related, So
I know I preapt to do before the show. I
do wonder what the NFL is going to do, what
their guidelines going to be. Baseball one player has it,
You're you're canceling days, and it's easy. It's easier to
make up games in the Major League Baseball. What's gonna
be a football Sunday morning? Do we need three, four, five,
how many guys or how many members of the team
(46:30):
have to have it for that game to be canceled? Yeah,
it's important. I don't know what that's going to look like.
I do think there will be some cancelations postponements along
the way. I'm feeling a lot better about things now
than I was. It doesn't mean, I'm guaranteeing anything, but
it's good to see that that numbers so low. Only
five players out of a huge percentage, way way under
(46:52):
one percent. Now so on behalf of the aforementioned producer
Brian Ratkowski and George k us On, Mike Blewett, Thanks
for watching, Thanks for listening to this edition of Football
Full Circle. We'll see you next time. On the Grid
sports grid dot com betting insights and entertainment at your
(47:13):
fingertips as our team covers the most important topics in
sports wagering, real time odds, predictive betting models, expert picks,
and more. Want the edge than get on the grid
sports grid dot com
Sports grid dot Com Betting insights and entertainment at your
fingertips as our team covers the most important topics in
sports wagering, real time odds, predictive betting models, expert picks,
and more. Want the edge than get on the grid
sports grid dot Com circle. Here on the Grid, Mike
(00:20):
and George talking to you about the NFL this fine
Sunday morning. And George, we have fantasy football season. We're
in the throes of it. We're gonna talk about it.
We're gonna talk about some player props too, fantasy adjacent,
more in the sports wagering category, but could matter for
those of you out there that owns some of that
are managing some of these players this season. So we'll
(00:43):
talk about some of those player props. But wanted to
start it off on it just sort of a standard
piece of news that happened in the NFL this week,
but a big promotion for Steve Levy, Brian Greasy and
Lewis Riddick. They are named as they knew Monday Night
Football Crew, and I'm Booker McFarland and Joe Testator. Where
previous crew, I think they received a lot of criticism.
I thought some of it was undue criticism, but nonetheless
(01:05):
they've been they make another change. They've been doing this
quite a bit, frankly this century, George, over the last
twenty years. I bet we can name six or seven
or eight different crews and we have yet another one.
But Leavy Riddick and Greasy Leaving and Greasy work together
a lot in college. They have done an NFL game,
They did Monday Night Football game last year, I believe.
(01:26):
But Lewis Riddick, who you and I both like a
lot as a critic on NFL Live and other shows,
will be a big, big addition to this crew. I mean,
you can see what ESPN is trying to do. That
trying to find the right combination that's right, right, guys
that are both entertaining and informative. It's not an easy
thing to do. They did also, remember they tried to
(01:46):
trade for al Michaels all right for NBC get him
up to Sunday nightcast and get him on the Monday
night football. That didn't work there. They've tried unsuccessfully to
get Peyton Manning for years now or fer anything he wants,
and he just won't take the job. They try to
get Tony Robo. He took really was more money to
stay with CBS, which is not surprised at what most
(02:07):
of us expected there. So you can't say they're not trying.
They certainly are. You know. I have two things here.
One as I like Steve Levy. I do like him
on the sports centers. He does the hockey as well,
so I mean a lot of hockey. How do you
I wanted your opinions specifically on this because he does
a lot of hockey. I think he's a good hockey announcer.
Do you think that I do as well? I like
(02:28):
his emotion. I like his uh it's almost like a
boyish enthusiasm. I would call and I enjoy it, you know.
I like Steve Levy like uh, And I said, I
am a hockey guy. He get gets on very well
with John Butcher, Gross Barry Melrose also with the ESPN,
and they have a great camaraderie there. I enjoy listening
to them. So yes, I like that I and you
already said, I am a big Lewis Riddick fan. I
like the fact that Louis Riddick seems to say what's
(02:50):
on his mind. He's not trying to sugarcoat things. He'll
tell you what he thinks. I think that's what you need.
You know. My my biggest criticism with John Crewd and
you already said this, was that everyone's great. Everybody was great,
and that's because he obviously, I don't know how many
years it took. Maybe he was ready for the right opportunity,
but he obviously wanted to get back in the NFL
and he doesn't want to rub anyone the wrong way.
(03:10):
The fact that it was there was a noticeable roller
coaster with him. George. When he first was on air
with ESPN, he was not critical at all. He had
just left the sidelines. To three years in he started
to feel his way and it was like he was
being more critical, he was rowing guys under the bus.
But then it changed again, and that's when we knew
that he was looking for a job on the sidelines again.
(03:32):
So it became antiseptic. I mean worthless to me, you know,
I just just really worthless with the guy's not going
to criticize and I listen't. I hope really doesn't change.
I wanted to be the person he is. Uh he
does or has tried to get a general manager's job,
and let's phase he probably should have one. He is
a guy who really should be considered for that job.
(03:54):
But I hope he doesn't do that. Right now, he's
going to turn into John Gruden too, because he doesn't
want to be nailed out of any jobs because he
criticized someone on that team, well, the owner, well the generalman,
the current generalman of the coach, whatever it might be.
I hope he feels free to say what he wants
there and let the chips full where they may. Uh.
So I am interested now, I am someone, Mike. I
(04:15):
think you know this. Most people do. I don't listen
to many games. I find most announcers to be terrible
and I don't like them, so I think they're worthless. Uh.
The Southern Night crew is it? Go? I do like
al Michaels and Collins, but I do listen. That's the thing.
I do listen to the primetime announcers. So Thursday night, ors,
Sunday nighters, Monday nighters, it's the only game on I
am listening to the announcers. Uh. The bulk of other
(04:37):
games we're watching red Zone, We're flipping back and forth.
I need some for some explanations. And frankly, uh, I
do the NFL package what's it called the NFL Online
Package game pass? I use that. So I watched condensed games,
and the only thing I hear I don't. I never
hear the color commentator because it's a thirty minute. It's
(04:59):
just over and over and over again. And so in
that sense, yeah, I am really more focused on the
prime time announcing teams. Here's why I think it's gonna work.
Greasy and Levy have worked together since seen doing premier
college football games. Leave has been calling games for ten years.
Greasy as well since two thousand nine. Leaves work for
ESPN since and we both like Riddick. He can step
(05:22):
in and do a game anytime he wants. And I
honestly think, because these guys work well together already, you
pair them or the Riddick, I think it's gonna work.
It should be noted at least A Salters is the
sideline reporters, will continue to do that. John Perry is
the officiating analysts, will continue to do that. That's why
I think it's gonna work. I think a lot of
times they're trying to match people together and hoping to
find some special sauce. Just pick the guys that work
(05:44):
together and do a good job. Already you add Lewis
Riddick in, he can, he can work with anybody. Guy's
tremendous on television. Yes, and I'm looking forward to it
a truly. I think it's I think it's something that
could work here. I think Spudo was supposed to realize. Listen,
the money I gave is no longer the Marquee gave.
It hasn't been and forever that's a Sunday night game.
Now they have the Marquee game. You quality games were
(06:05):
better last year, at least than previous years they were,
but they're they're not scheduled to be that way. They're
just not. You know, Sunday night gets the best, Thursday
Night gets the worst because every team has to be
represented in prime time at least once, and ESPN is
somewhere between the two, you know, the Monday night game.
This is once again, it's just the way it is here.
So we welcome in our radio audience for this final minute,
just cover the game, being formative, and you know it's you.
(06:29):
You're announcing a football game. It's not life and death.
You're announcing a football game, be excited about when place happened.
Get the fans with you is this year is a
trying year for these guys because it's gonna be no
fans in the stands, so no jews, right, you don't
have to feel it, no lotricity going on there. So
it's an interesting year to have a new booth. But
well being, I mean, I don't think that story was
(06:50):
all that bad, but I can't see this being any
worse than it was the past couple of years. I
think it has to be an improvement. Yeah, I always
feel like people banging. Look, if you want, if you
want a sure fire away to get sports fans to
disagree with you, tell them that you'd like an announcer.
Guarantee fifty of them will disagree with you. I guarantee it.
We'll come back. We're gonna talk player props next on
(07:13):
football full Circle. Get on the Grid sports grid dot
Com betting insights and entertainment at your fingertips as our
team covers the most important topics in sports wagering, real
time odds, predictive betting models, expert picks, and more. Want
the edge than Get on the Grid sports grid dot
Com Back on the Grid Mike and George talking about
(07:40):
player props, specifically running back totals. We've done a lot
of player props this offseason. I think we'll start stacking
them up as we get closer to the season. I'll
give you a sense of what we think of these
player props on FanDuel, but first follow us on Twitter
at sports Grid on Instagram, at sports grid tv, at
George Kurtz, at Mike Blewett on Twitter. So, George, running
(08:01):
back totals, this is rushing and receiving yards. Do some
combos here. We're gonna take them one by one. I
will say in general, running back props seasonal running back
props aren't my favorite for the reason that we talk
about with UM fantasy. The second the injury happens, it's
(08:23):
over ah, and there's a greater chance that running back
is gonna get hurt and miss out on some of
these huge totals that I'm about to announce UM and
just really miss an opportunity. Even missing two or three
games for running backs put some of these wagers in jeopardy.
Thoughts about maybe running back props versus QB or wide receiver. Oh,
(08:45):
I agree with you, i'd have to be, and so
I was certainly want to put a large amount of
money on these props. Uh, not of the main guys,
because you are worried about injury. Let's face it, they
talked about twenty times a game. They're getting tackled twenty
times a game maybe everything. Then they get pushed out
of bounds with getting a lot of three hundred pound
men fully on you, a lot of guys around your legs,
a lot of car crashes. That's really what every tackles.
(09:05):
It's a car crash. So I'm very very I play
so many weekly player props that I don't feel as
much of a need to do it for running batch
for the season, I would say, but we'll try to
find you the best values here. Um, I see if
there's any juice on any of these. Nothing significant on
any of these, So minus one twelve in both directions,
(09:29):
so I'm gonna rip them off. Alvin Kamara started off
with him George one thousand, five hundred, twenty four and
a half yards. Again, it's rushing and receiving total. Can
you get to five? What do you think? A little
math here? Sixteen? It's ninety five yards a game. That's
(09:51):
what it comes out to, ninety five yards a game.
It certainly seems doable. I mean, let's look at last year.
Last year, now we found out he was hurt pretty
severely early on, right, we found that outdoor. It was
week two, week three when you are says he heard
his knee. There he still had twelve so you know,
(10:13):
he started nine games played in fourteen. So you think,
I listen, the starting thing doesn't bother two touches, which
the year before the things you have to seventy five
twenty three, you're not gonna you're not gonna get to
the total, you know, I mean Irish five yards. He
got his five yards of touch. There was actually twenty
three carries on gives you know, the hundred and fifteen yards.
(10:35):
It doesn't get him there. And I had fourteen and
change in two in in twenties eighteen and to seventy
five touches fifteen hundred ninety two yards. So he cleared that,
but cleared that, but he had a lot more touches there.
You know, the Saints are early team that's going to
play more towards the bowler. They want to win. They
have they don't need to overwork him here thirteen started
(10:57):
a long way to say. I can say a lot
of negatives. Here is why I won't do this. So
I'm not gonna do it. I also, I don't think
he's gonna be the kind of guy that you could say, oh,
he's definitely staying healthy. I don't think he's built that way.
So I think this guy who was more susceptible to
injury than other players, I want to get to fifteen.
You know, he's not built like a little like a
(11:18):
brick wool here. I'm gonna cleared it his rookie year two,
but he was. He had seven points seven yards per
touch as a rookie. I don't think we're getting back there,
certainly not this season. Uh So, all right, so we're
gonna pass on Kamara? Would you say the under or
pass for you? I would lead towards the under, I would.
(11:39):
I wouldn't do that. I mean, listen, a small amount, sure,
get a lot of root against Alvin Kamara. I'm not
doing that one. Christian McCaffrey eighteen hundred ninety nine and
a half. So he's got to get to nineteen a
hundred yards. George, do your math and I'll do your
math and I'll tell you where he where he was
at the last couple of years. Obviously, he hit this
(11:59):
total last year nine yards. The previous year he hit
it as well at nineteen sixty, So regression expected by
the books. What do you think here, Well, it's a
hundred nineteen yards a game. It's worth that is a lot.
I mean, love me, you bet he's hit it. Uh
we You and I both expect once again this team
(12:19):
to be trailing a lot, a lot of high scoring
games coming out of Carolina. H He'll be a big
part of it. Man, He'll be a big part of it.
Teddy Bridge Water. His history tells us he doesn't throw
the ball into the secondary. He likes those check down throws,
you know, little short pairs at the line of scrimmage. Here,
can you remember how many passes he caught last year? McAffrey,
(12:42):
did you catch over a hundred? I don't think he
could over a hundred, but my one hundred and sixteen George, Yeah,
damn is right. Four hundred and three times he touched
the ball. They were bad offensively, and he still did that.
I'm gonna say I once again, I'm not doing it
but I would leave the over here. I think he
(13:02):
does eclipse that mark. Again, it's gonna have to go
really sideways for him for him not to do it. Now,
there's tons of data to suggest regression, but there would
also be data to suggest regression from three hundred and
twenty six touches and sixty five yards, which he did
(13:23):
two years ago, and then he got eighty more touches
and he got four hundred more yards. So, um, I
don't expect him to go up from here. But if
you bring it back to three hundred and fifty touches,
George with your math, what is that three fifty to
get a three fifty two? Uh? Yeah, he's got to
(13:46):
get the hundred and would you say hundred nineteen yards
in game? So he needs the only needs the average
five point four yards touch. That would be the lowest
of his career. I think three hundred fifty touches stuff.
I guess once, if you wanna play Devil's Advocate, what
you're worried about besides an injury, injury is worried about
with everybody, would be that there is better. I mean,
(14:08):
maybe Bridgewood has throws about to more people more receivers.
You know they had Kyle Allen last year. They a
bunch of I'm worried about them not controlling the ball enough,
is what I'm worried about. I think their defense is
going to be on the field for long stretches, and
I think that they will have to throw more. I
(14:28):
wonder if it hurts his catch total, Like I could
see his catches dipping below a hundred for the first
time since his rookie year. By the way, the year
before he had a hundred and seven catches, So I'll
be worried about him his uh, his touches dipping below that.
But that I feel like a fun shark if I
bet the Christian McCaffrey under. So if you're taking it,
(14:49):
I'd go with the over. I think it's low enough
that I feel good about the over. I wouldn't pass
on it, and I don't think it's going under. So
that's where I'm at with McCaffrey. Derrick Henry fifteen hundred
and nine and a half yards, so he's got to
get to fifteen ten George, that's under hundred yards of game. Well,
you know you're not getting much from him as far
as the receiving game is concerned now passes last year.
(15:13):
I think from memory serves me, that's that's a whole
past and a half A game you need yards pretty
much a game here he caught during the regular season. Yikes,
one catcher game. Uh? Is he getting ninety five yards
a a game? Here? Now? You're not really worried about
anybody taking carries away from him, right, I mean we
(15:35):
both like Evans to something degree, but I don't think
Evan's gonna be a major part of the game plan.
He I've already said it. This team runs through Henry. Literally,
they need him to be Henry. You know, if this
office to survive. What I'm always gonna be worried about
is an injury. He's not. He's not elusive. He's looking
to hurt you. He's looking to hit piece are okay,
So he's looking to hurt you, look and hit you,
which means he's gonna get hit a lot. Only take
(15:55):
he doesn't need. The engine might just slow down one
of the nagging injury we've seen that in the as
from him, I kind of lean under here, got the
big contract to the new context or maybe the other
motivation is not quite as there. He basically got what
amounts to a two year deal, George. So if I'm
playing Devil's advocate, I say, look, they're gonna they're gonna
run until the wheels fall off. But they do need
(16:17):
him for next year too. He got three hundred three
carries last year, he received twenty four targets eighteen catches,
so for a total of three one touches. He had
seventeen six last year five point four yards per touch.
A very successful season. But man, he basically has to
duplicate that to I think I'm the same and I
(16:41):
don't think that's a disaster for the Titans. I think
if Derrick Henry ripped off fourteen hundred yards fourteen hundred
and fifty yards instead of seventeen six, I still think
that they can be successful. It's about them getting it
done in the playoffs. I think this is a playoff team.
Can they duplicate what they did to New England in
Baltimore last year? That's gonna be a tall order. It
(17:03):
really will be. The success to this team isn't Derrick
Henery being marginally better. It's Tannehill being a lot more
successful and then being a more versatile offense when it
comes to the playoffs. That's my opinion. At least you
can notice me. I agree with you. I think they
need UH to have a little bit more of a
threat in the passing game for Harry to succeed. We'll
(17:23):
come back, We'll talk a little bit more about this
set of player props. It's running backs. Next on Football
Full Circle. Get on the Grid sports grid dot Com
Betting insights and entertainment at your fingertips as our team
covers the most important topics in sports wagering, real time odds,
predictive betting models, expert picks, and more. Want the edge
(17:44):
than Get on the Grid sports grid dot Com. Back
on the Grid, talking about running back props this season
in the NFL. Start with your boy on this segment,
George One, Zeke Elliott. In fact, you're not looking at
(18:05):
it right now, so I will. I'm gonna pose it
as a tribute question. What would you said, Zeke Elliot's
total at total rushing and receiving yards. What would you
say to that? Seventeen fifty? Wow, really good. You're good
at this, seventeen thirty four and a half. So you
gotta get to seventeen thirty five. You think Zeke's doing it.
(18:29):
It's doesn't mean I think he's doing it. I just
know he had thirteen hundred and someone yeards rushing last year.
Give another full hundred receiving seventeen sounded good. So once again,
let's do a little math here, because I think this
is important to do the math. Uh six, Oh, it's
a hundred ten yards a game. Now he's gonna average
imagine eight yards rushing for games he needs forty yards passing.
(18:51):
It's a lot to ask. I mean, I don't think
that's gonna be looking to use him in the passing game,
oh that much. That year he goes, hey, we got Cooper,
we got a Gallup, we got ceedee Land, and we
got Blake Jarwin. The Cowboys really like a tight end.
So I don't know how many passes he's going to
receive here. So he may need to up that rushing
total a bit really to get that there, which he
(19:12):
might be able to do because once again, off the
line is still solid. It's not as good as used
to be, but it's still solid. I think team's gonna
back off a little bit. I did, They're gonna say,
you know what, we'd have a die by the knife
and Elliott than a gun with Cooper Gallop at ceedee lamb.
You know. And uh so I think once again I did.
They'll back up the safeties a little bit there. I'm
gonna take the under here. Now, see the elier I
(19:34):
think you know he had when you look at his
numbers last year, Mike looks good right, solid yere because
he only had four rushes of woman twenty yards. That's terrible.
And he did and despite the fact that he caught
fifty four passes. Look, I thought I thought the narrative
with him not being a pass catcher early in his
(19:55):
career was incorrect. But I don't think he's an elite
pass catcher as a running back. He did catch for
four passes last year and seventy seven the year before,
so that was a positive trend for him and for
fantasy managers however, and and wagerers. But I don't know
that he's elite. There's a lot of video out there
of him dropping a lot of passes too, so it
could have been better than it actually was. Yeah, I
(20:16):
just don't think that was gonna I'm gonna need him
to be that guy. Yeah, I think they're gonna try
They're gonna put the bull into the secondary with these
receivers here. So uh, I'm gonna go slightly under here.
Although one thing, once again, when I played Devil's Advocate, well,
maybe the reason why he didn't have the explosive runs
last year was because he held out that new contract,
you know, so maybe that had a part of the
(20:37):
two he's in camp obviously now, although once again he
had COVID earlier early on in the spring summer time.
He played sixteen games too, though, I mean he had
in his career. He has hit this number every three
of the four years of his career. He did not
hit it in ten because he was suspended six games,
but um last year was seventeen seventy seven. Two thousand
(21:00):
one before that is rookie year. It was just a
shade under two thousand and the year that he missed
six games, it was twelve fifty two. Uh. We we
have a lot of expectations for this offense, Georgia. I
just can't see Zeke not still not being the biggest
part of it. I'm gonna go over on this one.
I understand it's a pretty big number, but I think
(21:21):
we're all pretty bullish on this Cowboys offense. If it
doesn't work out, if it doesn't work out with Mike McCarthy,
just get out of the way. I don't know what's
going to happen. Like if this team goes eight and
eight again. Ah, I can't say I'm leaving for it
because you're a Cowboys fan. But I don't know what
will happen because it's all hands on deck. This is
a team that has to win. It's high expectations now,
(21:44):
like they are in the mix to win a super Bowl.
That's the roster that's in front of Mike McCarthy. Correct,
it's a good roster. I mean, like I said, the
only obvious weakness is in the secondary. It's a good
Cowboy roster. Uh, there's no reason why they if they
don't make the plans, we get eight and they don't
make the playoffs with an extra a wild card. I agree.
I mean, you're in You're in a division. Let's face it,
(22:05):
Giants bad Washington bad. Eagles are good. You know that
you could lose a division. I can see that the
Eagles on. I think the Cows are ahead of the
Eagles with Eagles on that far behind. So I wouldn't
get on McCarthy for not winning a division. I could
see you winning eleven games, but the Eagles win a
tiebreaker or they go twelve and four. That wouldn't shock me.
But if you would have missed the playoffs by going
you said eight and eight or even nine and seven, yikes?
(22:27):
Yeah yeah. Uh. James Conner is the next one on
the list. Come on, man, I didn't get out of
the gate on this Another guy I can't stay healthy?
What how dare you? I'm looking up his numbers from
last year? What do you think they set the number at.
I'm gonna make you guess this one now too. Oh god, um,
(22:51):
I mean he's on the board. There's only six or
seven guys on this whole list, so that's pretty good. Guess.
Actually twelve four and a half, so you're a little light,
but that's not Uh James Conner here we go. Uh.
Last year obviously was banged up ten games. Terrible, terrible,
terrible offense. He only carried the ball on a hundred
(23:12):
and sixteen times, only a hundred fifty touches for seven
hundred and fifteen yards. The previous year, which is really
the year that he came into his own was eighteen.
He started twelve games, played in thirteen two hundred and
seventy touches for fourteen hundred and seventy yards. George, he's
got Ben back, Juju back? Um, what do we think?
(23:34):
What do you think? Do you think it's way under it?
But you're you're saying, I don't think it's based on
a health, based on a health guest, Yeah, minus is
definitely the health. I mean, once again, you can make
the argument Ben is back. Teams don't worry about running
game anymore or not as much. I shouldn't say anymore,
but not as much. But I don't think he's gonna
play sixteen games. History tells us never has, right, History
tell us he won't. I'm not Benny Snell Samuels. I mean,
(23:57):
nice guys could take some carries away here and there,
so I thinks that big threat there. I think they
wanted system guy. Right, History tells us that they are.
I don't think you play sixteen so that he might
need to get that total that we're talking about in
thirteen games, which two years ago it was you can't
it's possible. Imagine you just said it's twelve thirty four.
That's less than hundred yards of game. About ninety six, Well, fan,
(24:19):
it is ninety six. That's what he would need if
he only placed thirteen games. But but now what was
twelve games? Now you over a hundred yards of game.
It's tougher. Now you're putting up an elite category. And
I just don't know if I can bet bet on that.
I leaned once again. Is not something I would definitely
do here, but I would lean under here. This is
my favorite one so far. I'm going over. I just
(24:41):
think based on the I think numbers too low. Yes,
you're going to deal with the risks that we just
talked about, but the number pushed low enough that I
think it's my favorite one. You know, I don't know
anybody is a sure fire under um yet. I'm really
worried about Henry. I just think regression is abound to
happen there at in ten yards when there's only one
(25:01):
way to get it. I just don't like that one
at all. But James Conner, I think it's my favorite
one here. I think the number is low enough. You
did the math. I just think that he can get there,
even if it's only thirteen games. So next one former
stealer Levian Bell. What do you think this number is?
How is Gays gonna use? And how can anybody even
(25:22):
know what the number is? Here? He's probably his last
season with the team, right, I know cares not definitely
his last season with the team. Might be Gays is
last season with the team. This also could be true.
Really good, you're nailing these, George twine and a half,
so he's got to get too exactly hundred. You can
(25:43):
do the math and I'll look up his stats here
for everybody, uh and rip them off. And they are
Levian Bell's touches last year and what was an absolutely abysmal,
non functioning office offense at times three d eleven touches
last year for twelve fifty so he didn't get there.
(26:03):
Offense is really bad. He did catch sixty six passes.
H That's really all I have to go off. I
can give you his his career stats with the Steelers,
but we know he was a monster in Pittsburgh. Four
hundred six touches for six yards three thirty six four
one year he got hurt three seventy to eighty nine
(26:25):
for twelve fifty nine that's all the way back to
his rookie year. The one year he got hurt was
one seven for six nine two. But George, I mean
he puts up this number. He puts up when he's healthy. Um,
My logical brain tells me that. All right, Look, I
didn't want you to be here, but you're here. This
is me being Adam Case. I didn't want you to
(26:48):
be here, but you're here. We got rid of a
bunch of guys were clearing cap space. But I got
to try to win some games here. I gotta help
Sam develop. We're gonna use you to the best of
our ability. I don't know I'm gonna throw you the
ball seventy eight times like I did last year, right
on that number, but I need you to hear we're
(27:09):
gonna try it. We're gonna utilize you touching the ball
twenty times a game in order to get us to
win some games. That makes sense. Listen, we all know
that Bell should crush this number. It's only eighty one
yards a game for a guy who catched the ball
and received the ball. He should crush this number. We
think the Jets will have a better offensive line, right,
you draft the number one guy, you make some free
(27:31):
agent editions. Granted the free agents nothing really to grow
home about what you're hoping the UH they'll play well together.
There's really what you're hoping for their UH. Gays has
to win games. He's not some going to go you
know what, I'm playing for the future here. I don't care.
He's not gonna have a future. The problem is, have
you seen who their first four opponents are? Yeah, Buffalo,
(27:54):
San Francisco, just have a bad schedule, Indianapolis, Denver. It's
a bad schedule. I mean, he could be so far
behind me. He's eighty one yards a game, but those
first four games he might need a hundred ten yards
a game for the rest of the season. Surpassed that number,
you know, something silly like that, and he's a Buffalo again.
He's got the Chargers here. I mean, wow, it's like
you're playing a lot of good run defenses in the
(28:17):
first half of year schedule. It does get better in
the second half. It gets better as far as run defenses.
But man, hard to like it here. Everything tells me
he should go over. He's too good at back. Gates
needs to win games. He can't play the long game here.
I don't care. If we win, I'll get the mind
the top draft pick got Jamal Adams trade. You know,
I get those picks as well here and we'll read
the the benefit. I think Gates has gone to at
(28:37):
the end of this year along with Bell. If things don't,
if things turn up with three and thirteen season, I
don't I think Jet fans will be calling for his head.
But they'll have no choice here. They'll have to get
rid of him. So I he said, logic, All logic
tells me this should be over. But the Jets. You're
to logic out the window with the Jets. I can't
bet on the Jets offensively this year. That's my final answer.
(28:58):
So uh say, and Barkley is how we're gonna land
the plane? We only got about thirty seconds left. Seventeen
hundred and fifty rights at number. Yeah, it's the biggest
one on here other than McCaffrey set off. They can
throw the candidate for touches. George, I'll take the over.
(29:22):
Just stay healthy. He turned that anchor on the Tampa
Bay game with us year. Don't do that again. I'll
take the over. But man, that's a lot. He did
it as a rookie with three hundred and fifty two
touches last year obviously banged up to sixty nine touches
for fourty one. So if you can land somewhere in
the middle, he hits it. So all right, we'll come back.
We'll talk a little bit of fantasy football after this.
(29:42):
On the grid. It's Mike and George. We're FC sports
grid dot Com Betting insights and entertainment at your fingertips
seven as our team covers the most important topics in
sports wagering, real time odds, predictive betting models, expert picks,
and more want the edge than get on the grid
sports grid dot Com. Back on the Grid, Mike and
(30:07):
George talking about wrapping up the running back props, and
then we'll get into fantasy fantasy football a little bit.
So um, most regular season rushing yards prop. There's plenty
of guys on here. I'm going to rip off the
top few. Derrick Henry plus seven fifties, Zeke Elliott plus
(30:28):
nine fifty, Nick Chubb plus nine fifties, s Kwon Barley
Barkley plus nine fifty, McCaffrey plus eleven hundred. Keep in mind,
this is regular season rushing yards only Dalvin Cook at
plus fourteen hundred, Josh Jacobs hundred, Miles Sanders two thousand,
marahe most are two thousand, Kamar hundred, Carson hundred, Colyde Edwards.
(30:49):
Where's James Conner? Where is James Conner? All the way
down to plus thirty one hundred, and they misspelled his name?
Come on, Fandel and she's kidding. I mean, I'm not
kidding if thing that's spelled it, but come on, let's
clean it up anyway. Ah, tell me who you're a
rushing champ is. I had you write it down, alright,
So I did write down seven names here, and you
(31:10):
actually mentioned all seven Elliott Barb, Big Chub Cook, Uh,
Derrick Henry, Christian McCaffrey, and Josh Jacobs. Yes, it takes
me a second. My handwriting is terrible. So even reading
my own hand reading stuff here, now, I was crossing
off one by one as during the break here. I'm
gonna go with Dalvin Cook. He's a plus like the
(31:31):
odds day. I'll tell you why. Ah. Yeah, he has
an injury history. That's why his numbers down there. Uh,
he's I guess a holdout could be a threat. I
don't think it's going to happy as zero leverage, but no,
Stefon Dix, I can't really throw the balls. What did
you want? And we know Mike Zimma likes to run
the football. He's come out and set. That's pretty much
why he fired the offensive coordina or two years ago,
(31:52):
because they weren't running enough for his liking and he
got that hurt the team here. So I think Dalvin
Cook's gonna get the ball early and often miss Madison.
There is a threat, but Massi is not gonna take
a starting job. He'll take away some carries, absolutely, But
you can say that with everybody on this list, with
the exception of Barkley, right, Zekiel Elliott's got to deal
with Pollard. You know, Chubb's got Kareem Hunt. Henry has
(32:13):
nobody too, but we already said we don't think Henry
is there. And Christian McCaffrey is gonna get the overall
yardage leader, but not really a threat to get the
rushing yards. Josh Jacobs is an interesting pick for me.
I actually almost almost took him over Cook here, sort
of the lower level guy here. Plus do like that,
but I'm gonna go with Dalvin Cook. I like it.
(32:36):
I mean, you had some logic theory that I agree with.
I think that I'm I think the problem with this
prop is that a lot of times we think of
running backs in their total impact on games, right, but
you understand that it's rushing only, and I look at
it as rushing only. I think, my guys that i'd
(32:56):
really be looking at I think to stick in the
NFC East, I think it's Zeke or Barkley. Um, I
know what Chubb has become for No are the reasons that,
in my opinion, that Kareem Hunt is there obviously as
an asset as well. Chubb has become exclusively like a
running back and they're gonna let him carry the ball
(33:18):
as many times as possible. H McCaffrey, I don't think
he's a real challenge for this. I think if we're
talking about total yours, McCaffrey's right in the mix. Obviously
we just went through those props, but I'll keep it
between those two. I think your your logic makes sense.
With Cook, the only I mean, Miles Sanders, Josh Jacobs
(33:40):
says the wild cards, I could see that. I think
Raheem Moster no chance I liked Tevin Coleman frankly as
a sleeper pick in fantasy draft this year. I think
that's virtually all right. We'll talk about him next thing.
But Joe Mix and Aaron Jones, a few other names
out there, but I'd keep it between Barkley and z
Maybe smaller wagers on those two as we go down
(34:03):
the list a little bit. Uh, Maybe like Josh Jacobs,
doesn't bother you that McCarthy is known to throw the football.
They like to throw the football, and you think the
l actually came out this week and said we have
Dallas guys will run the football. I said, uh, I
mean once again, maybe because you like to throw the football.
Because he never had a running back in Green Bay
(34:24):
for the most part, right, I think that's a challenge. Sure,
I think that I think this offense though as much
as I joke around and bust chops, the only thing
that worries about about me about the offense is that
so many other people like it. I started to get
a little nervous when everybody likes the teams that I
like for the same reasons that I like it. I
(34:45):
think I'm I'm in an echo chamber a little bit
too much, so I try to take a step back,
think a little bit more critically and wonder if I'm
just I'm hearing all this noise that's convincing me of it.
But when you look at the weapons, I just think
they have an opportunity to be a really efficient offense
and I can help a zeek. Does it get on
the rushing title, I don't know, but I'm at tend
(35:06):
to one here, so I got tend to one on
him in Berkeley, and I feel like one of those
two will win it. Josh Jacobs is it would be
my long shot. I just think that they'll force the ball.
But I don't think the Raiders offense is going to
be particularly great. I think Jacobs has just see so
many carries. Gruden's gonna play at old school and just
give him the ball three hundred and fifty times that
(35:27):
that that can just get you there at some point,
right gives you there by volume. I'm sure I don't listen.
I don't have any problem your logic either. I certainly
think bark is gonna have a great year, you know, Elliot,
I don't think he's helped with the rushing time. I
think he'll get his share of yards. But I do
wonder if he says not the back of everything he
is that's going on me as well. You watch him,
like I said, you watch the last couple of years,
(35:48):
not a lot of impressive plays. It's more like, because
you get so many opportunities, the yards build up compiler,
you know, that's sort of thing rather than a highlight
harsh Well, I mean that's what he was last year
for whatever reason, a lot of miles. He came into
out of shape last year too. That was a big
thing that he maybe need to lose some weight. Uh,
we haven't heard any of that this year, right, Apparently
(36:11):
he's a good shade there. I just think Dallas the
fact that they can throw the ball. I mean, they
should be able to throw the ball up and down
the field. So you took this in a different direction.
We're gonna try to talk about fantasy in the in
the last half, but I'll ask you really quick in
the next minute, who would you take over him? Do
you mean in fantasy? No, you're an nfology. You're like
(36:36):
thinking the best running backs. I would take Barkley. Yea.
They both have big contracts. There's a lot of guys
that would take over because that a contract, but we're
taking the contracts out of it. When I take McCaffrey,
I probably would. I probably would. Mccarvery's closed because that
you want. Do you want to running back? Who can
do with McCaffrey does? Do you want a real running back?
(36:56):
But the cab something you can do what McCaffrey does.
He's a more dynamic play make her. Then you're probably
take a McCaffrey, right, you'd have to. He's a damn
good running back, and you know he's the best gub,
best catch the ball ever, that's probably it. I don't
know if I would take anybody else over him. And
Henry's more of a one trick pony. I want more
than that. Who No, I don't trust his health. I
(37:19):
don't think he's ever gonna be able to stay healthy
or fully health. He might play, but always be banged up.
I want more of a prototypical guy here. I'm looking
at my list here. Nick Chubb would be close. WHOA,
that's high praise for Nick Chubb's not like the job,
and they've always liked Nick Chub. But the only guys
I definitely would without a doubt would be Barkley and
cmc okay. Let's switch it over to Fantasy Pros came
(37:41):
out with a list earlier this week talking about top
consensus sleepers from their staff and from all the UH
from all the fantasy football experts, ranking guys based on
how they're being drafted right now. So the top consensus sleepers.
Orge Gardner Minshew came in as the top consensus sleeper
(38:05):
amongst all players that he is being drafted far lower
than is being expected. So they compared their draft results
and mock draft results to where the experts have them ranked,
and Gardner Minshew came out on top of one of
the top sleepers. UH. Next one on the list, Blake Jarwin.
(38:28):
Next one on the list, John O. Smith. I'll rip
off a few and then we can talk about him.
Teddy Bridgewater. Antonio Gibson, although I will note that the
Antonio Gibson news probably changed from the time this article
was written on Tuesday to today Sunday because mock drafts
have changed dramatically. Antonio Gibson flying up boards. UM, I
(38:50):
think it's way too much. I'm gonna let other people
take Antonio Gibson, who didn't even touch them all that
much in college. I understand the upside, I understand the ability.
I get it. You guys could luck if you hit
on Antono Gibson, more power to you. I'm gonna pass
because he's now too expensive. How about any of those guys,
Jarwin and Jonah Smith? I like them both, but now
that tight end position is well I I I generally
(39:15):
have a lot of problems with sleeper columns because Johnny's
the players they pick are not sleepers. I've read one
column the other day that that t Y Hilton as
a sleeper. Why he's an All Pro wide receiver? Right,
How's he a sleeper? It made no sense to me,
and uh As gets the easy way out. I don't
want the players they picked. I would give you a sleepers.
The problem is, how can Gardener Minshew or Teddy brit
(39:36):
Bridge want to be sleepers if you pay if you're
playing a super flex league, sure, but in one quarterback league,
how are you gonna get them into the top twelve.
I think I think that has to be assumed for
those two. If you're saying super flex, then fine, because
they're both outside the top twenty four. Minshew, I'm looking
to espns with this at number twenty four. Do you
think either of them can be in the top twelve
at the end of the year. No, No so much.
(39:59):
Vo they're both gonna stink. They're both going. There's so
many good quarterbacks, and listen, it's the guys who are
there not not even talk about top tier guys, Alan Breeze,
Stafford Rodgers, Daniel Jones, Roethlisberger, Newton, Tannehill, Golf Mayfield Cousins.
I mean, they're gonna have to pass all these guys
(40:20):
to get to the top twelve, every one of them.
And then you talk about the bet. Then the number
one guy's Jackson, Mahomes, Watson, Murray, Dack, Wilson, Ryan, Tom
Brady Wentz. How about Drew Lock Any chance to her
end to get in the top twelve? Once again, probably not.
I think the volume is going to be there for
him to be that person. I think they can get
right now, what's appe looking at them? They have Lock
of Twente's funny she mentioned minshewa Bridge. Do I think
(40:42):
they can get the top sixteen? Sure? I do think
they can get up there and move up a seven
eight spots, but move up even further than that, you
would need injuries to replace these guys. So I like.
I like the fact that they put these guys through
the sleeper because they are sleepers. I like that. But
to be quarterback ones at the end of the fantasy year,
I mean, could one of the three happened? Sure? I
mean it certainly could. Mitch's gonna throw the ball a ton.
(41:05):
The Jaguars are probably praying he doesn't end up being
a quarterback one because that would mean maybe they win
some more games, and they would have thought Drew Lock
certainly has that he has the wide receivers to do
it right. They they went heavy on the wide receivers
right there. Maybe that could happen there, but I don't
see it. It's just that we're so deep in quarterbacks
now where it was so strong that I don't see it.
I do like the two tight ends you mentioned, yeah,
(41:27):
with Gleat Jarwin engine new Smith once again there down
there in the upper once a gonna. I'm going up
ESPN's list here at two twenty two. And do I
think they can move up? Yes? I do, because what's
we're not as deep at tight end. I can see
guys folding off low for those two, I think it
want to get there. Well, maybe once again Jarwin, no
(41:50):
one knows about him, right, I've seen him and he's well,
you look at Jarwin, you certainly want to start it
when he's playing with Giants. I think the guy's five
three touchdowns get the Giants, and we had three in
one game to get two another game kills the Giants.
But then again, what tight end doesn't. But there's a
lot of question marks the tight end, right if we
have to get through the first couple of guys that's
unlike the quarterbacks. Okay, do you think Jared Cook's gonna
(42:10):
do it? I think no offense, Gronk and Tampa Bay.
I don't know Hawkinson, Gazicky Herndon, you know guys that
you just don't know here, Ebron got it? Do you
like TUSA Titans in Philadelphia? You know there are guys
that you could see and obviously moving up in the
pecking order here. So I like the tight ends. I do.
If you're gonna wait on tight end, which let's face it,
if you're not gonna spend a top three year pick
(42:30):
on top three round pick on Kelsey Kittle and Andrews,
you might as well, wait, you must wait till the
end and take a shot at somebody. We talked about
running backs a lot. We got about a minute to go.
I'm gonna rip off the listed running backs ye're in
fantasy pros. Of all the sleepers that that have been listed,
I'm not including Antonio Gibson, who's at the top of
their list, because we already know he's This article probably
(42:51):
influenced it to some extent. Here's the rest. J K. Dobbins,
Jordan Howard, Zack Moss, Matt Breed and Boston Scott, James White,
Tevin Coleman, my guy, Chase Dman's, Josh Kelly, DeAndre Washington,
Duke Johnson, Damien Harris. Of those guys, who do you like?
To really who I like? Who do I fantasy wise?
(43:13):
I'd want Jordan Howards. I think what you say yesterday.
He's gonna fall into the end zone seven times and
look like that. Like people don't like having players like
that because he's not exciting, he's not a versatile back.
But if better than it was, which it could be,
he's gonna fall into the end zone six times, and yeah,
you might not know every week to play him, but
(43:34):
if you're playing the zero RB game. Jordan Howard probably
gets six eight touchdowns this year. That's why you end
up trapping. He's my guy. So he's my guy because
I think he's gonna be the touchdown guy. I'm big.
I'm big on a touchdown guy. That's a good guy
to be good, good guy to be big on. So
we'll come back. We'll close out the show. Close out
the hour with George. Next on FFC sports grid dot Com,
(43:58):
Betting insides and entertain even at your fingertips as our
team covers the most important topics in sports wagering, real
time odds, predictive betting models, expert picks, and more. Want
the edge than get on the grid sports grid dot
Com closing out this hour of Football Full Circle. Thank
(44:19):
you to our producer Brian Rokowski. George and I I've
trying to find some positive news in all of this, right, George,
we've been building towards an NFL season. We didn't know
if it was going to happen. We think things can
get screwed up, but good news this week. As far
as the COVID list is concerned. What was that the
only five players as a Thursday only five players are
(44:40):
still on the COVID I l in the NFL on
all the rosters, so that would seem to be a
big time positive. That is a huge positive. There's eighty
guys per team right now, times thirty two. You're the
math guy here. That's a lot of that's a lot
of guys. So uh so, there we are. We're down
(45:01):
to five guys now. Not all those guys are bubbled
up being there, some of them. A lot of the
rookies have just seen from hard knocks. A lot of
the rookies are living in team hotels, so they're in
a bubble of sorts hotel and practice facility and back.
But a lot of these other guys are going home.
I think the negatives that the Mets were sort of
(45:23):
taking care of business and the Mets got isn't that
the word in the NFL though baseball Baseball didn't have
a problem when they were practicing either. It's when they
started traveling to other cities and maybe guys are going out.
Isn't as bad as we thought. Well, you say that,
and the NFL players don't travel, they don't go on
road trips like baseball players too. They're not in hotels
(45:47):
like that. They're in hotels one night a week, sometimes too.
Baseball now they still think today's day. I think today
is actually day thirty of baseball not having to not
being able to play a full game schedule. It's been
released one game canceled now for thirty days here. Granted
last Wednesday one of those games as a rain out,
they would have had all thirty was. It wasn't COVID related,
(46:08):
But the other twenty nine days are COVID related, So
I know I preapt to do before the show. I
do wonder what the NFL is going to do, what
their guidelines going to be. Baseball one player has it,
You're you're canceling days, and it's easy. It's easier to
make up games in the Major League Baseball. What's gonna
be a football Sunday morning? Do we need three, four, five,
how many guys or how many members of the team
(46:30):
have to have it for that game to be canceled? Yeah,
it's important. I don't know what that's going to look like.
I do think there will be some cancelations postponements along
the way. I'm feeling a lot better about things now
than I was. It doesn't mean, I'm guaranteeing anything, but
it's good to see that that numbers so low. Only
five players out of a huge percentage, way way under
(46:52):
one percent. Now so on behalf of the aforementioned producer
Brian Ratkowski and George k us On, Mike Blewett, Thanks
for watching, Thanks for listening to this edition of Football
Full Circle. We'll see you next time. On the Grid
sports grid dot com betting insights and entertainment at your
(47:13):
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sports wagering, real time odds, predictive betting models, expert picks,
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