Spencer Strider Makes Positive Strides, Drake Baldwin Goes Deep In Loss To Marlins

Shawn Coleman and Stephen Tolbert recap the 2-1 loss by Atlanta to the Marlins on Monday. Spencer Strider looked much better and Drake Baldwin had a much needed big game. Plus, while the offense looks better in the second half, just how much of it is sustainable?

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:19):
Welcome on and all to the Hemmer Territory Podcast. My
name is Showan Coleman. Hope. Wherever you are and wherever
you are listening, you had a great weekend and you
are giving off to a great start in the final
week of August. And Steven Tobert for Braves fans and
Bravest Country, I think there's something that many of us
have been waiting to hear football starts this weekend and

(00:41):
I can't wait that kind of that being something that's
being said on August twenty fourth, and that being more
exciting to hear than the Braves entering September. Definitely not
a good sign of the season that we've had, but hey,
we're here, We've arrived. But the thing is, we've still
got five weeks of Braves based appy to talk about,

(01:01):
including your fan of pitching matchups. A pretty exciting game
in that perspective tonight between Edward Cabrera and Spencer Stryder.
And the thing is is that with Spincher Strider Stephen,
it was an improved start in terms of results.

Speaker 2 (01:16):
Yeah, what's up, buddy, Yes, football season. The countdown to
football season started about a month ago. Uh in Braves Country, unfortunately,
and you know, we haven't had many of these seasons.
In fact, you know, relative to expectation, we haven't had
a season like this and most of our lifetimes quite honestly.

(01:38):
I mean, they had the the twenty fifteen, two sixteen,
twenty seventeen seasons, but those teams were expected to be bad.
A team that was supposed to be good and not
making the playoffs. It's been a long time for this team,
you know, especially you know, they had the September collapses,
but like to be this bad this early, it just

(01:59):
hasn't happened. Like Brais fans just don't aren't used to
going through this, and so they don't really know how
to respond. And I'm right there with him. I mean,
it's been a weird it's been a weird feeling the
last couple of weeks, just kind of playing out the stream,
looking forward to football season, still following baseball. I'm still
excited for the playoffs. I'm gonna watch the playoffs, of course,
but yeah, it's a weird feeling. So we're you know,

(02:21):
we're kind of looking for these little individual moments to highlight,
to talk about, to maybe look forward to to next
year and we had Spencer Strider starting tonight, and of
course this has been the topic the last few weeks.
Is Spencer has been I mean, Spencer's just been bad,
Like there's really no sugar coating and he's been you know,

(02:42):
I talked about it, I think with Scott at one point,
but like it might have been me and you, but like,
you know, the idea of having to kind of survive
Spencer Strider starts so that you can thrive in Hurston
Waldrip starts. It's just such a weird place to be,
but that's where the Braves have found themselves. And so
you know, every time he takes the mount tonight, it's notable.
And he made some changes tonight that we're going to

(03:03):
talk about. And I don't know if they're you know,
long term changes or if they were just matchup base,
but it was interesting nonetheless, and he had a good
night tonight. The Bros didn't win, they lost two to one.
They lost, you know, Edward Cabrad just kind of kicked
their ass tonight. But Strider made some interesting adjustments that
we're going to talk about.

Speaker 1 (03:21):
And Mark Bowman at MLB dot Com mentioned it best.
I think, you know, so many people have had different
opinions about what kind of has fell off or decline
or regress for Strider so far this year. The velocity,
the movement, the placement. I think all those things are
have played a part in, you know, him going into
the night coming off arguably the worst three start stretch

(03:43):
of his career. Those things still were not perfect tonight.
You could still clearly see that there were times where
he was still struggling with this placement, struggling with movement,
all that different stuff. The Miami Marlins, who were not
themselves name as a prolific offense, they hit the ball
very hard tonight on many occasions. That still was true,

(04:06):
and ultimately that is something that Spencer Strider is going
to have to figure out how to limit. But what
I'm getting at with mar Bowmen is that he said,
we could talk about all the different details that we want,
but run prevention did occur tonight, and run prevention occurred
coinciding with the fact that Spencer Strider made some changes

(04:29):
to his overall approach of how he set up hitters
of the arsenal that he used in different parts of
the at bat in different counts. And sometimes it's that
simple it's just simple enough to where you need to
change the direction to go from. I've tried this, tried this,
tried this, and every time I'm getting shelled. But this

(04:52):
time I was successful. It may not have looked as dominant,
or it may not have looked as good as I
had wanted it to, but something worked. So at the
very least, tonight, I think that the emphasis instead of
going as specific as possible, it's important to talk about
what he changed up in terms of his approach. But

(05:12):
at the very least he saw results change, and we
talked about instead of shutting him down, Strider and the
Braves probably wanted to set him up to have a success,
to have a chance to have a successful into the season.
This was a good step. And what that is being
in the right direction, I think tenter of the offseason.

Speaker 2 (05:31):
Yeah, so listen, tonight he just used his other pitches more.
You know, he came into the night throwing his change
up about three percent of the time, and tonight he
threw his change up ten percent of the time, So
you know, he tripled the usage of his changeup. His curveball,
same thing it's been in the you know, around the

(05:53):
five percent range. For most of the year. Tonight it
was at twelve percent, so he more than doubled his
curveball usage. You know, we've talked about this before, but
in twenty twenty two, twenty twenty three, you know, Spencer
was one of the best pitchers on the planet. And
twenty twenty two, Spencer threw his fastball sixty seven percent

(06:13):
of the time, which is crazy. That's how good his
fastball was. In twenty twenty three, he threw his fastball
sixty percent of the time, which is also crazy, but
again that's how good his fastball was. Tonight, for most
of the night, his fastball usage set around thirty eight percent.
I think the last five pitches he threw in the
game were all fastball, so that that bumped it up

(06:35):
to like forty or forty one percent to end the night.
But he spent most of the night with a fastball
usage in like the mid thirties in terms of percentage,
and that is very different for him, and that was notable,
and a lot of people watching the game were just
noticing how many more sliders, how many more curveballs, how
many more changeups he was throwing. Now, again, it's one start,

(06:57):
and this could have been just matchup specific. It could
have been individual matchup specific in terms of actual hitters,
or just could have been team specific to the Marlins.
Or he could have not planned on doing this at all,
got out to the mound and didn't feel, you know,
it didn't feel like his fastball had anything, so he
made an adjustment on the fly. So we don't know
if this is kind of like a new thing for him.

(07:18):
But when you see a guy who used to throw
his fastball sixty seven percent of the time throw at
thirty eight percent of the time in a start, you
need to make note of that, right. That's why we're
talking about it's because it's notable. And we'll see he
did have a better nine to nine. He did not
have as much swing and miss as I'm sure he
would want, and he had three strikeouts. There was a

(07:40):
lot of still a lot of hard contact, and he
probably got a little fortunate that he only gave up
the one run that he gave up, which was the
homer I think wasn't a Yeah, it was a homer,
So we'll see. It's just a it's a it's an
interesting data point. You know, we talked about is he
going to make adjustments. What are those adjustments going to be.
This is the first game where we saw like real adjustments,

(08:03):
and you know, the next time out, we'll see if
this continues. If this was just matchup based, but it's notable.

Speaker 1 (08:12):
Yeah, and if the velocity on the fastball is a
bit slower than it has been in the past, if
you flash more of the off speed stuff, that naturally
can make the fastball look a bit faster if it
is at a slower speed overall, So it's also just
changing up what hitters are seeing. And I'll give Strider credit,
probably again a bit of luck, but there was efficiency there, right,
only three strikeouts across seven innings, but still ninety five

(08:34):
pitches in seven innings. That's pretty efficient. Only fifty five
of those were strike so, you know, not the highest
strike percentage. But again, it just comes down to sometimes Stephen,
it just comes down to a pitcher just have a
successful game. And I think that that's what Strider really
was looking for. I don't think that this in any way,
shape or form convinces Strider that, hey, he's clearly on

(08:56):
his way back to be in himself. I think he's
smart enough to know that's probably not the case, but
at the very least, it's just it's nice for him,
probably for a mental aspect, to not come out of
a start once again thinking just what can I do
to just have a bit of success, instead of coming
out of tonight thinking, Okay, I didn't have my best stuff,

(09:19):
but I was resourceful enough to still get the job done.
I did my job. For Spencer Strider, he puts a
lot a lot of pride in doing his job, and
tonight he did. That's something he hasn't been able to
say for quite a while. It's nice for him to
be able to be in that position.

Speaker 2 (09:37):
Exactly. And I want to mention that we've talked a
lot about how much velocities Spencer has lost. There are
plenty of pitchers in Major League Baseball that have tons
and tons of success throwing a fastball ninety five ninety
six miles an hour. It's not like you can't pitch
at this level throw a ninety five ninety six. I mean,

(10:00):
that's still I think Spencer's fastball is still above average
in terms of I think the average is like ninety
five point one or something like that, and I think
Spencer's is like ninety five point six. So like, of
course you can pitch at this level with that fastball.
What Spencer has never had to do that those other
pitchers have had to do and have learned how to do,

(10:21):
is how to use the entire arsenal to help set
up that fastball, and how to locate that fastball in
places that it's going to have success, and how to
keep it out of places where it's going to get
lit up. That's what Spencer's never had to do because
he used to throw one hundred miles an hour and
it didn't matter where he threw it. And so that's
what we're kind of that's the journey he's going to

(10:42):
be on on top of, hoping to get some of
that velocity back once he gets back to a normal offseason.
This offseason, it's learning how to pitch at that velocity
by using all of your other pitches. Like he's got
four pitches, he's got a curve ball, he's got a
change up, he's obviously got the slider, which is his
second best pitch. But if you use those correctly and

(11:04):
if you locate them correctly, it all makes your fastball
play up right. This is the journey that Harsel Waldrip
has been on about learning how to use other pitches
and location to make your fastball play up, so he
can do it. And you know, we've talked about how
competitive he is, how much of a psycho he is
in the best way possible that we mean that as

(11:25):
a compliment, and this is what we're talking about. He's
gonna make adjustments. He's not just gonna sit there and
beat his head against the wall trying the same thing
over and over. At some point, the kid was gonna
make an adjustment. And so it was just fun to
see that tonight, and you know, it's something to track
for the rest of the season and then moving into
next season.

Speaker 1 (11:43):
And I think also it's worth mentioning that it is
good as Spencer Strider was in twenty two and twenty three.
Some may just think, Okay, well, if he's this good,
if he's this elite, then if he needs to make
an adjustment, that means that he's going to do it
in a much quicker fashion than just your average pitcher

(12:05):
when it comes to how he pitches. But that's not
necessarily the case for elite star pitchers when the reason
why they were elite or why they were among the
best in the game. Is what has regressed a bit,
right Like, it was his velocity, and it was the
overall control of his fastball. And we're not just talking

(12:26):
about one of the better fastballs in baseball. I think
that if you asked around baseball, many would say that
in terms of starters, Spencer had the best fastball in
baseball in twenty two and twenty three. Everything that he
did worked off the fastball. That's what made his other
pitches elite. Well, now he's having to figure out, at
least for the time being, how to use other pitches

(12:49):
to make his fastball better. That's a complete one eighty
in the overall mentality for a pitcher. So it's not
so just because a pitcher is a superstar at one
point in their career. If they've got to adjust what
makes them so effective, if they've got to go about
it in a different way, it may actually take them
longer to do that than your normal pictures because they've

(13:10):
been so used to having so much success off the
same source. So that's what I'm saying. This isn't just
a start where he's going to figure it out. When
we talk about the off season, really needs to come
for Spencer Strider and come in a successful way. Again,
the confidence is there, he's going to figure it out,
but you've got to be able to understand he's got
to have time to do it as well.

Speaker 2 (13:32):
Yeah, and listen again, I'm gonna say this number again.
In twenty twenty two, he threw his fastball sixty seven
percent of the time. That's banana, that's what like relievers do.
Like that as a starting pi that's crazy. That's crazy.
And so not having that weapon, or at least is
the version of that weapon that he had, is going

(13:53):
to be a massive adjustment. Not a little adjustment, a
massive adjustment. And again we're still hoping that some of
that velocity comes back next year. We're not just completely
given up on that. But in the meantime, you know,
he's kind of kind of make do with what he has,
and tonight was just you know, tonight was a good
step in that direction. Again, it was one start. We
have no idea he might go back to his normal

(14:14):
usage the next start. This might have been all about
the Marlins. You know, this might not have been anything
he was doing other than just matchups. So we're not
gonna draw any conclusions off of one start, but it's
just a data it's a data point to kind of
mark and then we'll see what the next one looks like.

Speaker 1 (14:30):
Never underestimate the the the power of a positive data
point as things. If that line graph that's measuring whatever
in your life, if if that, if that line graph
that you're seeing keeps going down, down, down down, but
you eventually get to that data point that just goes up.
Never underestimate the power of how positive that side is.

(14:52):
But speaking of positive developments, we certainly saw one for
Drake Baldwin tonight as well, despite the loss. A good
game from Drake Baldwin, and right now that may matter
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Speaker 1 (16:12):
FT sent you, so Stephen, you know, coming into the
second half of the season, we made it clear that
one of the biggest storylines that was gonna be there
for Braves Country to follow was how Drake Baldwin and
the NL Rookie of the Year race will would continue
to shape up as time went on. The AL Rookie
of the Year Race it's taken care of. Nick Kirks

(16:33):
has been unbelievable for a few months now. Roman Anthony,
I don't think he's gonna make it close, but he
is unbelievable to watch as well. But on the n
L side of things, many have reason to watch Drake Baldwin.
He was a clear favorite about a month ago, and
of course if he wins, that could mean extra draft
capital and what should be a very critical draft for
the Braves in twenty twenty six. But the thing is

(16:55):
is for Drake Baldwin is that it now has become
a much closer, and it actually has become a three
man race. You know about you know, two weeks ago
Isaac Collin of the Brewers, when the Brewers were just
unbelievably hot. To believe you had that fifteen game hitting streak,
rightfully so our winning streak. Isaac Collins was a big reason.
He was playing better than Drake Baldwin at that time.

(17:17):
But both of those players have cooled off over the
past week or so, and Cade Horton, pitcher for the
Chicago Cubs, has entered the fray as well. So we're
basically now in a three horse race for the NL
Rookie of the Year campaign. The point that I'm getting
at is, unfortunately it's become much closer race than any
of us had hoped. But the fortunate thing is it

(17:39):
very much is still in Drake Baldwin's hands to be
able to make the most of this.

Speaker 2 (17:45):
Yeah, so if you look at the odds on draft kings,
you know, Horton, Collins, and Baldwin are all very close,
like it's one guy is like a one three fourhead
game away from take the lead. So it's very much
neck and neck. The thing that's gonna hurt Drake is

(18:07):
that the Brewers and the Cubs are both playing for
playoff spots. Like Cad Horton and Isaac Collins are doing
this for teams that are winning and therefore are just
gonna be in the spotlight more. Drake's playing for a
team that's you know, a million games under five hundred
in back of a playoff spot. So he's got to
be that much better. And unfortunately for Drake, he has

(18:29):
cooled off quite a bit. I think his last multi
hit game was on like August ninth. He's been pretty
pedestrian for about two weeks now. He did have a
Homer and a walk tonight, which is what you're talking about.
So there's a nice bounce back, and he was quite
literally the Braves only offense tonight. But yeah, I mean

(18:49):
other gout. You know, he Drake certainly hasn't had quite
the second half that he had in the first half,
and so he's allowed other guys to kind of come
into the race. But also you got to give those guys.
I mean, those guys are just having great seasons as rickies.
I mean, Kate Horden's got like a two to eight
eer for a team that's currently got a playoff spot.
So you know, some of it is just you got

(19:11):
to give credit to other good players. But it's still
such a close race. This is not a Nick Kurt situation.
Whether it's just a runaway winner. Drake is probably one
hot week away from being the clear favorite. Again, that's
how close it is. So good night tonight. You know,
we looked it up. He's he's played in about seventy

(19:32):
percent of the Braves games in August. I think he
DHD in two of those and caught the rest, So
you know, I would probably prefer to be more like
seventy five percent, but to be honest, Sean Murphy and
Marcelo Azuna have been just as cold lately. Sean Murphy
just broke a massive I think he was like, oh

(19:52):
for thirty four or something like that. He broke that
last night. Marcel went into has gone into a pretty
big slump himself. So I'm sure Brian Snicker is just
you know, mixing and matching on any night just to
try to get some production out of any of those guys.
But again, Baldwin has played about seventy percent of the time.
You can't really say he's not been given a chance.

(20:14):
He's just he's just gone cold. And listen, he's a rookie.
I mean, he wasn't gonna run a one forty WRC
plus all season long. He was gonna hit up some
cold spells. So we'll see, we'll see if they keep
giving him the playing time. I very much hope they do,
and hopefully he can get hot and put this, you know,
get out back out in front of this thing and
maybe bring it home.

Speaker 1 (20:34):
Yeah, and I agree that you know, to the point
that you know he has called off a bit that
that certainly is a factor in it. And I know
that you got to get all three of the guys
playing times as well. But but the one thing that
I feel, the one thing where I think the Braves
are making a mistake, is if he's not the priority

(20:55):
of the three to be given the playing time. Like
in my opinion, we looked it up over the past
two weeks, Sean Murphy had played six times, Baldwin had
played eight times, Marcelo Zun now has played thirteen times.
There should not be that much of a difference between
Baldwin and Azuna's playing time. In my opinion, Baldwin should
be playing between DH and catcher. If it's a two

(21:16):
week span, he should be playing double digit games. And
it's not even about Rookie of the year, nor is
it about that draft pick that should play into it.
But set that to the side. It's also just simply
Baldwin going through a stretch of the season where he's
had the wear and tear of the majority of the

(21:37):
season now wearing on him. He needs to work through
that right if he's going to eventually be the Braves
primary catcher. They've also been sitting him quite a bit
against left handed pitching. I don't think that's doing him
any favors. When he has clearly been producing against left
handed pitching. These are opportunities that you want him to

(21:58):
continue to have a six in because that's where it's
going to allow for him to be able to have
a better chance of sustaining it. As the league becomes
more used to him, he gets more playing time, it
becomes more important for him to play every day in
the future. So that's why I feel like it makes
sense for them to play him as much as possible.
I don't mean to be on my soapbox. From my perspective,

(22:20):
it comes down to winning work in the year and
getting that extra draft pick, but there are many other
factors that are going to be more important in the
future when we're trying to win again. That if Baldwin
has success now, it lines him up for a better
chance to have success again when it matters more in
the future.

Speaker 2 (22:38):
Yeah, I don't love that they're just kind of blanket
sitting him against left handed pitching like they have the
last couple of weeks. And even if you don't believe
in like his early success, you know, it's not a
ton of games. It's a small sample size of splits
that he's had success. And even if you don't believe
those are fully real, you still want him to develop

(23:01):
against lefties. You still want him to see lefties. And
I've talked about this before about how quickly now in
the Major's left handed hitters get platooned, like most of
a lot of teams don't even let you try, or
they let you try for a very small amount of time,
and if you have don't have success, they're just You're
just a platoon guy. Drake has had success against lefties.
He's actually hit lefties or at one point he had

(23:24):
hit lefties better this year than right He's I don't
know if that's still true, but I do want to
see him play against lefties again. Even if you don't
believe his success is completely real, if it might be
a little noise in there, you still want him to develop.
So but all that being said, you know, I think
what has cost Drake in terms of where he is

(23:46):
in the Rookie of the Year right now, is he
just hasn't played as well when he's gotten the chances.
And so that's really what you know, He's just gonna
have to find it again. He's just gonna have to
get hot, you know again. He's been playing about seventy
percent of the time. It could definitely be more. I
wish they would play him more against lefties. But the
big thing is, like tonight, when he's in there, he's
got to you know, he's got to produce. So and

(24:08):
again he's going up against two guys that are in
playoff races, and that's you're already kind of playing with
one arm tied behind your back. Because there are voters
who don't like giving these awards to guys who are
on bad teams. I don't agree with that, but that's
how they you know, that's how they view it. Now
it'd be pretty hypocritical. Since Nick Kurtz is running away
with the you know, Rookie of the Year from you know,

(24:31):
the A's who are a million games back, that actually
should help Drake a little bit. Kind of ignore that argument.
You know, Boston is in the playoffs and in the
A's or not. But Nick Kirk is running away from
Roman Anthony and Rookie of the Year. So that should
help Drake. But he's got to play better, pretty.

Speaker 1 (24:49):
Simply, absolutely, and hopefully he'll be giving those chances. And
like I say, I know that many people will have
different perspectives. But the thing is is that there's just
there's plenty of reasons to give Baldwin his man each
chances is possible, And to your point, hopefully this all
quiets down if tonight can be the start of another
seven to ten day stretch where Baldwin can really once
again set himself ahead of the pack in the l

(25:11):
Rookie of the Year chase. But speaking of more positive developments,
I know tonight is not the best example, but overall
here recently the Braves offense has looked clearly better than
they were in the first half. What's been the big
difference why? And is it Does it mean that a
corner has been turned for the future. We'll discuss that

(25:33):
in just a moment.

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(26:08):
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Speaker 1 (26:36):
Obviously, one of the things that has made this second
half a bit more bearable than the first half was,
you know, we knew that with the pitching injuries, that
you know, the riding was on the wall, that we
just were not going to make this season. You know,
the goals that many of us have had for this season,
we're just not going to be breaching. We're going to
make the playoffs. Call it a lost season, what have you.
But the clear thing is that it's been a bit

(26:57):
more fun because the offense has improved over the past
six weeks and looking it up. One of the biggest
reasons why is because this team clearly has improved in
one area that was one of the two biggest complaints
about this offense over the past thirteen to fourteen months
going into the Alsto break. They have clearly taken a

(27:17):
step forward with runners in scoring position in the second
half of the season. So far, the Braves right now
are eleventh in Major League Baseball in offense with runners
in scoring position. They have a one to twenty eight
WRC plus with runners in scoring position. That is really
really encouraging, in a big difference from where they were
for a bunch of twenty four and the first half

(27:37):
of twenty five. Now. The reason why they're having that
success their overall approach at the plate has been quite good.
They are with runners in scoring position in the second
half of the year, they are six in strikeout rate
and second in walk rate. This team has showed patience,
they've shown better selectivity at the plate, and it's led
to better results. That is definitely encouraging. But Steven, while

(28:03):
it's encouraging and it's an improvement, we're looking for sustainability.
We're looking to get back to being a winning organization.
So we need to figure out how to find success
and sustain it. And while it's encouraging to see this improvement,
I think this is only a half or third of
the offensive equation that we need to really get back
to where we were a couple of years ago.

Speaker 2 (28:27):
Yeah, so it's interesting. The offense is undoubtedly better right
now than it was earlier in the year. Now. Obviously,
tonight's game, Edward Cabrera just just smoked him for seven
inning heats. I mean, he's he's kind of nasty to be.
I mean, the guy those one hundred miles an hour
with a does a ninety three mile in our change.

Speaker 1 (28:44):
Up when he's owing like a I think he's getting
a bit more consistent. But the one thing that I
failed to mention in the first part of the show,
he can be just as impressive as Sandy Alcantara or
Contra or your Perez when he's on. He's the one
who won the best of the league.

Speaker 2 (29:02):
Yeah, he's nasty. He's nasty as hell. And the Braves
had nothing for him tonight. Yeah, had ten strikeouts and
seven innings and not much hard contact at all. So
tonight's game, notwithstanding, the offense has looked better. But like
Sean said, what we're looking for is a model that
is sustainable for six months. And I was watching I

(29:26):
was actually watching the game yesterday and I was thinking
about this, like, is this current model of the Braves
offense sustainable for six months? And what's it being built on? Right,
It's being built on a tonne of walks, which is sustainable?
Walks are I think walks are maybe the most underrated
offensive stat in the sport. I actually have come to

(29:48):
believe that walk rate, on an individual level, may be
the most important offensive stat because it reveals so much
about the type of hitter you are. Like if you
go if you just sort, if you just go through
any stats page, any any website you like to use,
and just sort all the best hitters in baseball by
walk rate, and then you go look at the names.
You'll see the best hitters in baseball. I mean you'll
see Ronald Cuna, Junior, Lonsoto, Aaron Judge, Shoheo tany like

(30:12):
Price Harper, Kyle Schwarber, like the best hitters in baseball
take a bunch of walks, and I have come to
believe that walk crade is is very important. And so
the fact that the Braves have increased their walk rate
as much as they have in the second half is
maybe the most encouraging part of what has happened, because
I do believe you can build a sustainable long term

(30:35):
offense with walk right. In fact, I think you have
to have that as part of the equation, and this
is something I think the Braves have missed, you know,
especially when Acunya's out. Akunya and Olson have always been
their best guys in terms of walk rate, but now
you've got other guys joining the party, and I think
that's crucial. You know, Profar is a big part of that.
You know, Marcel has been walking a bunch. Ozzie has

(30:55):
been walking way more this year than he has. Michael
Harris is still not taking any walk but it is
what it is at this point. But I think walk
grade is important. So that's one thing. But the other
thing it's being built on the offense right now, is
it's being built on this like white hot Michael Harris run,
which I don't really believe in. If I'm being one
hundred person honest, I'm I'm not gonna poo poo it

(31:17):
completely because it it's valid what he's done. But if
you're asking me, is this sustainable for six months? I
don't believe it. Again, he doesn't ever walk and I
just went through a whole list of reasons why I
think walk grade is so important, So I don't believe
that part is sustainable. The other part that is worrying
to me is that the homers are so so far down,

(31:39):
Like Matt Olsen has two homers since the All Star Break.
You know, Ronald Cueter Junior has three. Obviously he was hurt.
But the thing I want to see from this offense,
because they built it around a bunch of sluggers, is
I want to see walks and homers because those are
the two things with this crewup of players that I

(32:01):
know for a fact they can sustain for six months
because I've seen him do it. What I don't think
you can sustain it on is hoping Michael Harris is
just out of his mind. Our jerks and profar are
going crazy. I think I think the the walks are
crazy encouraging. I want to see the homers get back

(32:21):
to where we saw them in like twenty twenty not
even twenty twenty three. What they what they did in
twenty twenty three is crazy, and I gotta see three
hundred and seven homers in a season again. But like
just in the top, you know, top ten in baseball
in homers, that's perfectly attainable for this group, and in
my opinion, it's sustainable because the Braves are some of
the streakiest hitters you'll ever see, and the one way

(32:43):
to score runs even when you're going through bad streaks
is homers, because somebody can take a walk and one
guy can pop a homer and it's two runs, right,
It's just two runs instantly. And that's what the Braves
were built on for years. Is all right, we might
not have we might only have two or three guys
going at the moment, the rest of the lineup as
cold as ice, but we're popping homers, we're still scoring runs,

(33:04):
we can still win games. That to me is the
sustainable version of the offense that they've been missing for
the last two years is walks and homers, and that's
what I want to get back to and the walks
have been fantastic to watch. I want to see the
power come back in this lineup. I want to see
matt Olsen. You know, matt Olsen's gonna hit like I mean,

(33:24):
He's got twenty homers or nineteen or twenty homers through
you know, six hundred plate appearances. That's kind of wild,
to be honest with you. You know, there's just not
the same. I think Marcelazuna has like twenty homers. I
think twenty leads the team. There's like fifty guys in
baseball that have hit more than twenty homers, and none
of them are Braves. So that's the part I want

(33:48):
to see. That's the next step where I think this
offense can sustain itself for six months is walks and homers,
because that's the personnel they built it around.

Speaker 1 (34:00):
Yeah, the difference between a six week sample size and
a six month sample size and what's going to lead
to success in the second half of the season, which basically,
you know, it's been well five weeks, we'll give it
five weeks or so. But in the second half of
the season. Here are a couple of homer tallies for
the Braves. Michael Harris leads the team with ten home runs.

(34:21):
Jerkson Profar and Marcelo Zuna are second tied with seven.
So Michael Harris has hit ten, Jerkson Profar has hit seven.
Austin Riley, Ronaldcunya Junior and Matt Olsen have combined for
seven home runs in the second half of the season.
So it's really encouraging, yes, players, but again that's the

(34:47):
difference between a six weeks and a six month sample size.
When it comes to sustaining offense, you've got to be
able to have your best players contributing. That's the first thing.
So that's to Steven's point, it's encouraging to see what
we've seen in the second half, but I think it's
still okay to question how sustainable it is. That's the
first thing. The second thing to Stevens point about walking

(35:10):
consistently and hitting homers consistently is the one thing that
that does is that it makes the margin of error
for the pictures to work with so much smaller, which
plays into what the Braves can do, because if you're
consistently making pictures work out of the stretch with the
worry of runners on base, but you're also consistently taking

(35:31):
advantage of taking their mistakes deep. That's where you're going
to excel as an offense. That's what really helped the
Braves out in twenty twenty three. And if you can
get those two things working, not only does it matter
over sustaining your offense over a six month sample size,
that also is a very good remedy or a very
good mixture of success to find wins in October when

(35:54):
it matters most.

Speaker 2 (35:56):
Yeah, I mean, I'll never forget watching the two series
versus the Mets at the very end of the season,
when the Braves and the Mets were in this you know,
Titanic battle for the division. The Braves would come all
the way back the Mets were coming to town. They
had de Graham, Scherzer, and Bassett lined up to pitch

(36:17):
in that series, and the Braves just beat them with
homers like Dansby Swanson homer and in every game Matt
Olson homer and in every game Austin Riley hit a
couple of homers like. Those guys didn't make a lot
of mistakes, those pitchers, I mean, but the ones they made,
the Braves put them in the seats. And that's how
you beat good pitching. And that's what I mean by sustainability.

(36:38):
You don't need nine guys in your lineup getting hot
at the same time to score runs. When you're hitting homers,
you just need one or two guys and a couple
of guys taking walks, and you can you can survive
the cold streaks because let's be honest, we know by
now this offense, the collection of players it has, they're

(36:58):
gonna go through cold The individual players are going to
go through some massive cold streaks. Michael Harris is gonna
go through massive cold streaks. Austin Riley, Matt Olsen, Sean Murphy,
Ozzie Albi's they're all streaky as hell. I mean, they're
gonna go through crazy cold streaks. How do you survive that?
You hit homers, because then you don't need nine guys hitting,

(37:18):
You only need two or three guys hitting. The thing
that Braves have missed the last couple of years is
the home run ball. Right when you're not hitting homers,
you need four or five or six guys in your
lineup hitting. When you're hitting homers, you don't. And that's
what this lineup was built on. It was built on. Okay,
we got a bunch of streaky hitters, but they're gonna
hit a ton of homers. So that's how we survive.

(37:40):
And that's what I kind of want to get back to,
quite honestly, because this last two years of trying other stuff,
you know, you know, all we live and die too
much on the homer. We need to try other stuff
that hasn't worked. It just hasn't. And what they've done
the last six weeks is fun. But again, I just
don't buy it. I don't if Michael Harris is gonna
be the best player in baseball. Yeah, I mean, maybe

(38:01):
they could sustain it, but does anybody really buy that
it's gonna be the case over a six month sample.
I don't. Jerkson Profar is I think it will help
a lot. I think Jerckson is a big piece of
this going into next year, maybe one of the biggest
outside of Austin Riley. But you know, having a Kunya Olsen, Riley, Baldwin, Murphy, Profar,

(38:22):
whoever's dhing, having the Harris, Ozzy, having the Goose, having
those guys hit homers and take walks. I think that's
how you sustain an offense. For six months, and I
know people are gonna push back on that. I know
people think they lived and died by the homer too much.
But when they were doing that, when they were living
and dying by the homer too much, they were one
of the best offenses in baseball. And ever since they

(38:43):
stopped doing that, they've been a very metio okrah offense
at best. So I mean, you tell me, was it
really all that bad? Wouldn't you just gladly take that again?
The twenty twenty two I'm not even talking about the
twenty three offense, the twenty twenty two offense, where they're
still one of the best offenses of big and yeah,
they lived and died by the homer, but they were
still one of the best offenses of baseball. Ever since

(39:05):
they've gone to this new stuff of kind of de
emphasizing the homer, they've been a mediocre offense at best,
and sometimes one of the worst in the sport. So
I want to see them go back to hit homers
and take walks. And I think that's how you sustain
for six months and survive the cold streaks from the
individual players that are going to inevitably come with this

(39:27):
collection of hitters, and.

Speaker 1 (39:29):
Never forget how much of a role hitting that homer
at crucial times played in the braves twenty twenty one
World Series run. I know that we're nearly four years
away from that, but I again I labeled the World
Series run for the Braves the bombs of the bullpen.
Their ability to hit homers consistently and their ability to
limit from that bullpen was the big two biggest keys

(39:51):
to their success. So but yeah, the homers will come,
you know, I do believe that the homers will come.
But at the end of the day, it is great
to see what we're seeing, and I do think that
this team, it has taken a significant step forward in
terms of bettering their overall approach of the plate in
crucial moments and taking walks from a year ago. But

(40:12):
you've got to get your best players back, and I
think that's a big key when we talk about hitting
more home runs. Your three best home run hitters, Austin Riley,
Ronald Acune Junior and Matt Olson in need of hitting homers,
and hopefully through a healthy off season, we'll get that back. Stephen,
anything else from you as we wrap up this edition
of The Hammer, Territory Podcast.

Speaker 2 (40:31):
No, we're moving into September. Listen, it's not the season
that Breaves wanted. It's not gonna be quite the same
fire and energy in every game as we're used to
at this time of year when they're fighting for a
playoff spot. But we're gonna cover the team just the same. Right,
We're gonna cover the team for get, you know, four
shows a week, just like we have been. There's gonna

(40:53):
be storylines that matter into the off season. You know,
we're probably gonna get into some more big picture stuff
in September, you know, the twenty twenty five roster, the
twenty twenty six roster, the offseason potential moves. You know,
it'll probably be a little bit more big picture stuff
in September. But still we're going to cover the team
exactly the same. So we appreciate you guys as always listening, downloading.

(41:16):
You know, it's a big help to us and we
do appreciate it.

Speaker 1 (41:18):
Plus, as time goes along, we're going to have, you know,
big time revelations, you know, from all of us that
are going to make it worth you tuning into. For instance,
I'll go ahead and you know, let a little secret
be known when it comes to me and Steven. Many
know that I am a die hard Balls fan and
Steven is a die hard Alabama fan. Well, I'm in

(41:39):
a bit of a conundrum this year because it just
so happens that Alabama's starting quarterback, Ty Simpson is from
my high school alma mater. He won a state title
for my high school where I went in Tennessee. So
I'm bought in a bit to Alabama's success for Ty
Simpson being successful. I still hate Bama. I still want

(42:00):
him to lose every single game all he has a
good game, especially against Tennessee. But that's the type of
dilemmas that we're facing. That's the type of stuff that
normally we would not have to worry about if the
Braves were playing successful baseball. But we have to face
those realities this year. So interesting topics like that will
certainly also take up time when it comes to the

(42:20):
Hammer Territory podcast. And can't thank you enough for tuning
in for these revelations that at other points in time
I would not feel so comfortable discussing.

Speaker 2 (42:33):
And your quarterback is at UCLA, No, what what.

Speaker 1 (42:39):
Happened to your quarterback that he went to Ucla.

Speaker 2 (42:43):
Yeah he got he yeah he went to But you
got UCLA's quarterback.

Speaker 1 (42:47):
We did get UCLA's quarter Guys, made like a trade.
We did. We did, We did make a trade.

Speaker 2 (42:52):
I'm sure that'll be fine.

Speaker 1 (42:53):
It should be fine. You know, we've gone through a
lot of change here recently when it comes to the balls.
You know, some bad, some good. What's Chall's record over
the past three years versus Tennessee. I'm like tra tuning
into this edition of the Hammer Territory podcast. You could
bind Stephen at b Underscore Outliers on Twitter slash x.
My name is Sean Coleman. You can buy me at

(43:14):
stats sac on Twitter slash x as well. Hammer Territory
across all forms of social media. Part of the Foul
Territory family of podcasts. And we're here to have fun.
At the end of the day, we're here to have fun.
We're here to talk braves, have fun, banter back and
forth a little bit, but give you the most entertaining
coverage of the team that we possibly and informative coverage
of the team that we possibly can. Until next time,

(43:35):
go Braves. We'll talk to you again soon here on
the Hammer Territory podcast,