April 17, 2025 • 8 mins
Jason breaks down the first round NBA playoff series between the Boston Celtics and Orlando Magic. He explains why Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner's squad is totally outmatched going against Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Jrue Holiday, and company, but goes through each team's best path to victory.
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
The volume. The NBA eighty two game grind is done,
and now the real fun begins. The NBA Playoffs aren't here,
and it's time for all the high stakes drama, clutch moments,
and jaw dropping plays. I can't wait. If you're looking
to make the playoffs even more exciting, DraftKings Sportsbook has
you covered as an official sports betting partner of the
(00:22):
NBA from the playing games all the way through to
the finals. Now's the time to back your favorite players
and teams as they chase glory. All season long. DraftKings
has been the go to spot for NBA player props
and that does not stop. Now. Want to make your
playoff experience even more intense, Try placing a bet on
your favorite player's performance. Well they drop thirty points, forty
or more, it's your call. Ready to place your first bet?
(00:42):
Download the DraftKings Sportsbook gap Now lock in your bets.
Let's make this playoff run unforgettable. Here's something special for
first timers. New DraftKings customers. Bet five dollars to get
two hundred dollars in bonus bets. Instantly make it a
playoff run to remember with DraftKings. Download the Draft Kings
sportsbook gap and use code hoops that's h oops. That's
code hoops for new customers to get two hundred dollars
(01:05):
in bonus bets when you bet just five bucks only
on DraftKings. The Crown is Yours. Gambling problem called Wayne
hundred gambler in New York call eight seven seven eight
Hope and y or text hope and why to four
six seven three sixty nine and Connecticut help us available
for problem gambling Call eight eight eight seven eight nine
seven seven seven seven or visit CCPG dot org. Please
(01:26):
play responsibly on behalf of Boothill Casino and Resort in
Kansas twenty one plus. Age and eligibility varies by jurisdiction.
Void in Ontario. New customers only. Bonus bets expire one
hundred and sixty eight hours after issuance. For additional terms
and responsible gaming resources, see dkang dot co. Slash audio.
(01:57):
All right, welcome to Hoops tonight. You're at the volume.
Happy Thursday, the Know all If you guys are having
a great week. We're continuing with our series previews today
with the Orlando Magic versus the Boston Celtics. You guys
know the drip before we get started. Subscribe to the
Hoops and Not YouTube channels. You don't miss any more
of our videos. Follow me on Twitter at underscore Jason
lt so you guys don't miss announcement. So don't forget
about a podcast fee wherever you get your podcast on
our Hoops Tonight, it's also super helpfulf we leave a
(02:18):
rating and a review on that front. We have social
media feeds on Twitter, Instagram, and Facebook where Jackson is
making great content throughout the year. Make sure you guys
follow us there, and last but not least, keep dropping
mailbag questions and the YouTube comments. We can get two
in our mailbags throughout the remainder of the season. All right,
let's talk some basketball, so we're gonna be going shorter
on this one. The Celtics are a comically large favorite
(02:39):
over the Orlando Magic. All of our odds, again are
provided by DraftKings, but right now the Celtics are minus
five thousand to beat the Orlando Magic. You'd have to
bet five thousand dollars to win one hundred dollars if
the Celtics won. We've also got so many other series
previews that I have to get to this week, so
I'm just choosing to go a little bit shorter on
this one, but I'm just gonna briefly give you guys
(03:00):
my thoughts on both ends of the Floors season series.
Orlando actually won two to one, but Tatum didn't play
in the first Orlando win, nobody played in the second
Orlando win. In Boston's win, Orlando was missing a bunch
of guys, so there's not too much to learn from
the season series. Let's start with the Celtics on offense.
I expect Orlando to have some success slowing down the
(03:22):
Celtics offense. I'm actually looking at this series kind of
is like the more dramatically lopsided Eastern Conference version of
the Warriors Rocket Series in the sense that the team
that I'm picking against has this truly elite defense that
will make their opponent uncomfortable for stretches of the series,
(03:42):
but their offense is just not close to consistent enough
at generating quality shots that they can make in order
to actually give themselves a real chance to win the series.
The Orlando Magic were the second best defense in the
NBA this year, and they're specifically well equipped to handle
Boston's offense relative to most tams. They have a lot
of size and they can switch. The game plan for
(04:03):
Orlando needs to be to switch, contain the ball and
force the JS into settling into tougher jump shots so
they can stay out of rotation. How Boston can beat it.
I think Tatum will do some early work against Wendell
Carter Juniors just to see how he feels and switches there.
I could see him trying Jonathan Isaac a little bit
because he's skinny and similar to his matchup, but Evan Mobley.
(04:24):
Tatum has some advantage there when he can bump guys
off with that shoulder. But I think most of the
work that Tatum does will be against guards in this matchup,
some against KCP, a lot against guys that Corey, Joseph Cole, Anthony,
et cetera. Things are going to come down to Tatum
and Brown in those matchups doing a good enough job
of punishing in those one on ones that the doubles
(04:46):
need to come. And when the doubles need to come,
that's when they can start getting into those driving kick
sequences that generate the super high quality shots that have
been the hallmark of the Boston Celtics over the course
of the last several years. On the other end of
the four. I was watching Orlando play in the playing
game yesterday versus the Hawks, and I still hate their offense.
So many possessions for Orlando basically just take on a
(05:08):
four out one end setup and then it's just Paalo
and Franz standing at the top of the key while
KCP wattles up to set a ghost screen or a
quick screen on Franz or Palow and they either get
a quick you know, two on the ball where they
can toss it over to KCP and they try to
play out of it, or they'll get a switch and
then Palo and Franz will just start trying to isolate
(05:29):
in the middle of the floor and inevitably either settle
for a short jump shot or a longer mid range
jump shot, or a kickout to a shooter that's probably
not going to make the shot. And I think that
Boston is just gonna put Drew Holliday on KCP so
they feel really comfortable switching those ghost screens. I think
we'll see a lot of Horford at center in this series.
(05:50):
He's one of the best centers in the league at
switching onto power ball handlers and just keeping those guys
in front and forcing them to settle for jump shots. Again,
I look at this as a series similar to Rockets Warriors,
where there will be times where Orlando makes Boston's defense
Boston's offense look uncomfortable. But I think Boston's defense is
going to be able to strangle the Magic at times
(06:11):
in this series. Now, Orlando's path to an upset is
pretty simple. As we mentioned, switch and contain stay out
of rotation forced the Jays to settle for bad jump shots.
On the other end, attacking smalls, generating quality kickout threes
from those attacks or quality attempts at the rim. Then
from there they have to shoot the ball very well,
(06:32):
but those are all very highly unlikely to occur. Reminder,
the Magic are so bad at jump shooting. They get
five fewer points per one hundred jump shots than the
twenty ninth ranked jump shooting team in the league. On
wide open, unguarded catch and shoot attempts, they get one
point zero four points per shot. For perspective, the Celtics
(06:55):
get twenty six more points per one hundred unguarded cats
shoot shots than Orlando, twenty six more points per one
hundred to tens. They are an entirely different level of
jump shooting team. It's worth mentioning. At least Orlando has
shot a little better over the tail end of the season.
They're fifteenth and three point percentage over the last fifteen games.
(07:18):
But once again last night in a big playoff game,
they took fifty one jump shots and made fifteen of
them for forty one points. It's not something they can
rely on. I just don't think they're gonna be able
to make enough shots to keep this series interesting. So
this is my one sweet pick. I think the Celtics
are gonna sweep the Magic. Maybe Orlando steals a game,
but there's never gonna be a situation here where Orlando
(07:39):
can truly threaten them. They just don't have a reliable
enough offense to stick with this high powered Celtics attack.
All right, that's all I have for this particular series.
Like I said, I promise we were gonna go short
so I can get to these other series. As always,
as sincerely appreciate you guys for supporting me and supporting
the show. We will obviously be covering this series in
detail throughout each game. I will see you guys for
game one on Sunday. What's up, guys. As always, I
(08:03):
appreciate you for listening to and supporting OOPS tonight. It
would actually be really helpful for us if you guys
would take a second and leave a rating and a review.
As always, I appreciate you guys supporting us, but if
you could take a minute to do that, I'd really
appreciate it. The volume
The volume. The NBA eighty two game grind is done,
and now the real fun begins. The NBA Playoffs aren't here,
and it's time for all the high stakes drama, clutch moments,
and jaw dropping plays. I can't wait. If you're looking
to make the playoffs even more exciting, DraftKings Sportsbook has
you covered as an official sports betting partner of the
(00:22):
NBA from the playing games all the way through to
the finals. Now's the time to back your favorite players
and teams as they chase glory. All season long. DraftKings
has been the go to spot for NBA player props
and that does not stop. Now. Want to make your
playoff experience even more intense, Try placing a bet on
your favorite player's performance. Well they drop thirty points, forty
or more, it's your call. Ready to place your first bet?
(00:42):
Download the DraftKings Sportsbook gap Now lock in your bets.
Let's make this playoff run unforgettable. Here's something special for
first timers. New DraftKings customers. Bet five dollars to get
two hundred dollars in bonus bets. Instantly make it a
playoff run to remember with DraftKings. Download the Draft Kings
sportsbook gap and use code hoops that's h oops. That's
code hoops for new customers to get two hundred dollars
(01:05):
in bonus bets when you bet just five bucks only
on DraftKings. The Crown is Yours. Gambling problem called Wayne
hundred gambler in New York call eight seven seven eight
Hope and y or text hope and why to four
six seven three sixty nine and Connecticut help us available
for problem gambling Call eight eight eight seven eight nine
seven seven seven seven or visit CCPG dot org. Please
(01:26):
play responsibly on behalf of Boothill Casino and Resort in
Kansas twenty one plus. Age and eligibility varies by jurisdiction.
Void in Ontario. New customers only. Bonus bets expire one
hundred and sixty eight hours after issuance. For additional terms
and responsible gaming resources, see dkang dot co. Slash audio.
(01:57):
All right, welcome to Hoops tonight. You're at the volume.
Happy Thursday, the Know all If you guys are having
a great week. We're continuing with our series previews today
with the Orlando Magic versus the Boston Celtics. You guys
know the drip before we get started. Subscribe to the
Hoops and Not YouTube channels. You don't miss any more
of our videos. Follow me on Twitter at underscore Jason
lt so you guys don't miss announcement. So don't forget
about a podcast fee wherever you get your podcast on
our Hoops Tonight, it's also super helpfulf we leave a
(02:18):
rating and a review on that front. We have social
media feeds on Twitter, Instagram, and Facebook where Jackson is
making great content throughout the year. Make sure you guys
follow us there, and last but not least, keep dropping
mailbag questions and the YouTube comments. We can get two
in our mailbags throughout the remainder of the season. All right,
let's talk some basketball, so we're gonna be going shorter
on this one. The Celtics are a comically large favorite
(02:39):
over the Orlando Magic. All of our odds, again are
provided by DraftKings, but right now the Celtics are minus
five thousand to beat the Orlando Magic. You'd have to
bet five thousand dollars to win one hundred dollars if
the Celtics won. We've also got so many other series
previews that I have to get to this week, so
I'm just choosing to go a little bit shorter on
this one, but I'm just gonna briefly give you guys
(03:00):
my thoughts on both ends of the Floors season series.
Orlando actually won two to one, but Tatum didn't play
in the first Orlando win, nobody played in the second
Orlando win. In Boston's win, Orlando was missing a bunch
of guys, so there's not too much to learn from
the season series. Let's start with the Celtics on offense.
I expect Orlando to have some success slowing down the
(03:22):
Celtics offense. I'm actually looking at this series kind of
is like the more dramatically lopsided Eastern Conference version of
the Warriors Rocket Series in the sense that the team
that I'm picking against has this truly elite defense that
will make their opponent uncomfortable for stretches of the series,
(03:42):
but their offense is just not close to consistent enough
at generating quality shots that they can make in order
to actually give themselves a real chance to win the series.
The Orlando Magic were the second best defense in the
NBA this year, and they're specifically well equipped to handle
Boston's offense relative to most tams. They have a lot
of size and they can switch. The game plan for
(04:03):
Orlando needs to be to switch, contain the ball and
force the JS into settling into tougher jump shots so
they can stay out of rotation. How Boston can beat it.
I think Tatum will do some early work against Wendell
Carter Juniors just to see how he feels and switches there.
I could see him trying Jonathan Isaac a little bit
because he's skinny and similar to his matchup, but Evan Mobley.
(04:24):
Tatum has some advantage there when he can bump guys
off with that shoulder. But I think most of the
work that Tatum does will be against guards in this matchup,
some against KCP, a lot against guys that Corey, Joseph Cole, Anthony,
et cetera. Things are going to come down to Tatum
and Brown in those matchups doing a good enough job
of punishing in those one on ones that the doubles
(04:46):
need to come. And when the doubles need to come,
that's when they can start getting into those driving kick
sequences that generate the super high quality shots that have
been the hallmark of the Boston Celtics over the course
of the last several years. On the other end of
the four. I was watching Orlando play in the playing
game yesterday versus the Hawks, and I still hate their offense.
So many possessions for Orlando basically just take on a
(05:08):
four out one end setup and then it's just Paalo
and Franz standing at the top of the key while
KCP wattles up to set a ghost screen or a
quick screen on Franz or Palow and they either get
a quick you know, two on the ball where they
can toss it over to KCP and they try to
play out of it, or they'll get a switch and
then Palo and Franz will just start trying to isolate
(05:29):
in the middle of the floor and inevitably either settle
for a short jump shot or a longer mid range
jump shot, or a kickout to a shooter that's probably
not going to make the shot. And I think that
Boston is just gonna put Drew Holliday on KCP so
they feel really comfortable switching those ghost screens. I think
we'll see a lot of Horford at center in this series.
(05:50):
He's one of the best centers in the league at
switching onto power ball handlers and just keeping those guys
in front and forcing them to settle for jump shots. Again,
I look at this as a series similar to Rockets Warriors,
where there will be times where Orlando makes Boston's defense
Boston's offense look uncomfortable. But I think Boston's defense is
going to be able to strangle the Magic at times
(06:11):
in this series. Now, Orlando's path to an upset is
pretty simple. As we mentioned, switch and contain stay out
of rotation forced the Jays to settle for bad jump shots.
On the other end, attacking smalls, generating quality kickout threes
from those attacks or quality attempts at the rim. Then
from there they have to shoot the ball very well,
(06:32):
but those are all very highly unlikely to occur. Reminder,
the Magic are so bad at jump shooting. They get
five fewer points per one hundred jump shots than the
twenty ninth ranked jump shooting team in the league. On
wide open, unguarded catch and shoot attempts, they get one
point zero four points per shot. For perspective, the Celtics
(06:55):
get twenty six more points per one hundred unguarded cats
shoot shots than Orlando, twenty six more points per one
hundred to tens. They are an entirely different level of
jump shooting team. It's worth mentioning. At least Orlando has
shot a little better over the tail end of the season.
They're fifteenth and three point percentage over the last fifteen games.
(07:18):
But once again last night in a big playoff game,
they took fifty one jump shots and made fifteen of
them for forty one points. It's not something they can
rely on. I just don't think they're gonna be able
to make enough shots to keep this series interesting. So
this is my one sweet pick. I think the Celtics
are gonna sweep the Magic. Maybe Orlando steals a game,
but there's never gonna be a situation here where Orlando
(07:39):
can truly threaten them. They just don't have a reliable
enough offense to stick with this high powered Celtics attack.
All right, that's all I have for this particular series.
Like I said, I promise we were gonna go short
so I can get to these other series. As always,
as sincerely appreciate you guys for supporting me and supporting
the show. We will obviously be covering this series in
detail throughout each game. I will see you guys for
game one on Sunday. What's up, guys. As always, I
(08:03):
appreciate you for listening to and supporting OOPS tonight. It
would actually be really helpful for us if you guys
would take a second and leave a rating and a review.
As always, I appreciate you guys supporting us, but if
you could take a minute to do that, I'd really
appreciate it. The volume
Host
Jason Timpf
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