May 4, 2025 • 22 mins
Jason breaks down the upcoming second round playoff series between the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Denver Nuggets including how the Nuggets will try and guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, how Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray can get going, and what the x-factors in the series are, as well as his pick for the series.
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
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The NBA eighty two game grind is done. Now the
real fun begins. The NBA Playoffs are here and it's
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I can't wait.
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Speaker 3 (02:31):
All right, well, good tonight, you're at the volume.
Speaker 2 (02:33):
Happy Sunday, everybody, Oh ball, if you guys are having
a great weekend. We have a very exciting day of
basketball today. Game one of the second round series between
the Pacers and the Cavs, which I think is going
to be an underrated, fun series, and then a very
very important, very big Game seven between the Rockets and
the Warriors. On several fronts, I think I am personally
very much rooting for Golden State to win that game.
(02:54):
I think they have a I think they match up
in a very interesting way with Minnesota, and I think
that would be a very interesting second round series. And
as you start to go through some of the matchups
in the second round with New York and Boston, Oklahoma
City and Denver, who we're going to talk about today,
Oklahoma City is a minus seven hundred favorite in that series.
Cleveland is a substantial favorite over Indiana. I think that
(03:18):
Minnesota versus Golden State is what the basketball world needs
for an interesting second round series. I think Houston would
get demolished if they ran into Minnesota in the next round.
But we have an awesome night of games tonight. Remember
our schedule tonight looks a little bit different because we
have I'm working with Colin right after the final buzzer
of the Warriors Rockets game. Then we're going to go
(03:40):
live on YouTube after I get done with Colin, and
then we're also going to go on playback after that
to take questions and get interactive with the audience. So
that's a schedule for tonight. In this episode, this morning
series preview for Denver versus Oklahoma City, we're going to
get into that series from every single angle, and then
we'll get out of here and go enjoy those games.
(04:01):
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Speaker 3 (04:11):
On Hoops Tonight.
Speaker 2 (04:11):
It's also super helpful if you leave your rating and
a review on that front. Jackson's doing great work on
our social media feeds on Twitter, Instagram, and Facebook. Make
sure you guys follow us there. And the last but
not least, keep dropping mail bag questions in our YouTube
comments so we can keep getting to them throughout the
remainder of the postseason.
Speaker 3 (04:26):
All right, let's talk some basketball.
Speaker 2 (04:28):
So the season series between Denver and OKC a rare
example of a series preview where the regular season information
is somewhat applicable. Most of the core players for both
teams played in all four games. For Denver, Jamal Murray
missed one, Aaron Gordon missed two, and for OKC, Hertenstein
missed two games. But other than that, the core rotation
(04:48):
players for both teams played. They went two and two.
Each team won on each other's floor once. The stars
for both teams looked great at different points and struggle
at different points. So, for instance, in the first Denver
win back in November, the Nuggets did an awesome job
defending Shae Gilds of Alexander. They had him out of
sorts for most of the second half. Christian Brown did
(05:10):
a great job. They forced him into a bunch of turnovers,
Denver methodically walked OKC down. That was a game where
Shay struggled right in the other win for Oklahoma City,
or the other game in back in November. Then Oklahoma
City won, Chet kicked Jokic's ass, and the Thunder defense
shut down shut down the Denver offense, and they ended
up winning that game in convincing fashion. But both of
(05:30):
those games were very early in the season. They met
twice later in the season. The first game was close
until the fourth quarter and then the Thunder blitzed them
with their bench group. Ironically, a lot of really high
level play from Keson Wallace and Alex Cruso during that stretch.
But then they played again a couple nights later, and
that game was close until the second half when the
(05:52):
Nuggets successfully deployed a very gimmicky zone defense where they
double team Shay crossing half court.
Speaker 3 (05:58):
We'll talk a little bit about that.
Speaker 2 (06:00):
Down Oklahoma City's offense, Denver started getting out in transition.
Denver scored one hundred and forty points in that game
to get a win. So a lot of really interesting
data in favor of both teams coming from the regular season.
Actual big picture data. In the four games, Denver averaged
one hundred and twelve points per one hundred possessions on offense.
Oklahoma City averaged one hundred and eighteen. Denver did win
(06:20):
the rebounding battle. They grabbed fifty two point two percent
of available rebounds thirty two point two percent of their
own misses. That's obviously going to be a big factor
in this series odds. Again, all of our odds are
provided by DraftKings. Oklahoma City's minus seven hundred to win
this series. That's a substantial favorite. Boston, by the way,
for comparison, is minus eight hundred to beat the Knicks,
(06:43):
so they view the nuggets chances to beat Oklahoma City
as roughly the same as New York's chances to beat Boston.
I disagree with that. I think that there's good value
in the betting market for Denver here. Denver at plus
five hundred as the underdog.
Speaker 3 (06:59):
I like that bet.
Speaker 2 (07:00):
I think the thunder deserve to be a pretty substantial favorite,
But I think Denver has a much better chance to
upset Oklahoma City than New York does to upset Boston.
A really simple way for me to describe it is
Jokic puts so much pressure on Oklahoma City's defense. That
is a problem Oklahoma City can't really solve. They have
(07:22):
to overcome it by winning other parts of the series.
With New York versus Boston, they don't have a single
thing that they do well enough to present Boston with
those sorts of issues. So I don't agree with those
odds being as similar as they are. I would have
put Oklahoma City in more of that like minus three
hundred minus three point fifty kind of range. So I
(07:45):
do think there's some interesting betting value on Denver in
this series. Oklahoma City on offense, so the matchups are
going to look like this. We'll see Christian Brown on
Shae for most of the series, Aaron Gordon on Jdubb,
although I think they might consider mixing that up if
they start getting killed on the back line and they
might have to consider putting, you know, putting you know,
(08:05):
either an extra guard on the floor like Russell Westbrook
and taking Michael Porter Junior off and having to have
him guard Ja Dubb. Just I wouldn't be surprised if
they got a little gimmicky to try to keep Aaron
Gordon closer to the basket. But I do think Aaron
Gordon will start the series on j DUB, Jamal Moorey
Murray will start on Lou Dort, although we'll also probably
see Jamal Murray spend some time on Chet Holmgren. Michael
(08:25):
Porter Junior will start on Chet Holmgren, and Nicole Jokich
will start on Isaiah Hartenstein. Defending shake Yildes was Alexander.
It's gonna be a steady diet of Christian Brown. We're
gonna see a mix of at the level coverages, deeper
drop coverages in his own looks, and again, all that
means is in the ball screen. Christian Brown's constantly going
to be chasing Shaye over the top, but we'll see
(08:45):
Jokic come up all the way to the level of
the screen sometimes and then we'll see him sitting a
little bit further back, meeting Shay closer to like the elbow,
like around the foul line area. Shaye did kind of
have Christian Brown figured out in their last two games.
He started beating him just one on one to the basket.
He was getting more separation. But Brown did have success
against Shaye earlier in the season. He was able to
(09:07):
apply some good ball pressure and back pressure that that
cast some issues for Shaye. So that's gonna be a
big swing factor in the series. Just how good of
a job can Christian Brown do on Shae? How physical
is he allowed to be? How much success can he
have using his size and strength on ball against Shae.
Speaker 3 (09:23):
In pick and roll.
Speaker 2 (09:24):
The higher that Yokic comes out to the level, the
more likely he is to get split. And there were
a lot of examples, And what I mean by that
is like you can imagine Shae coming off of a
ball screen. Yokic comes up to the level, but Shae
just comes off the ball screen and then quickly crosses
over and shoots that gap between the screener and Yokic
when he's up there at the level. And there were
(09:45):
several examples on film where Jokic when he came out
that high did get beat pretty badly by Shaye. And
in those situations, their defense completely fell apart and they
started giving up layups. But Jokic did lock some quality
possessions on tape. He was able to successfully protect the
rim against Shae in a deeper drop, not a full
deep drop where he's like on his heels all the
(10:07):
way back at the rim, but rather meeting Shae closer
to like the foul line area, where he's kind of
like in a stance that's kind of funneling him towards
the side of the rim that they're already on, like
towards the sideline, so to speak. And in that situation,
he can actually generate some contact with Shae before he
gets to the rim, which can prevent Shae from really
(10:28):
getting explosive downhill. And he actually had some really nice
rim protection possessions against Shae in that kind of like
middle drop where he's meeting him more in the middle.
Speaker 3 (10:36):
Of the floor.
Speaker 2 (10:37):
I think we'll see a lot of mixing up coverages.
I think the deeper drop will be a base coverage
for Denver, but I think they'll mix in the occasional blitz.
I think they will mix in some at the level stuff.
I think they'll mix in zone, out of timeout, out
of dead ball situations. We'll talk some more about the
zone coverages here in a little bit. Jalen Williams, I
think we'll see more of a deeper drop against him
(10:58):
as well. It's been a mixed with Jalen Williams in
ball screens against Denver this year like, there are possessions
where he does a nice job of baiting Jokic to
step out, and he can create really easy lobs for
Isaiah Hartenstein. But he was also the guy who was
quick to settle for some tough contested mid range jump
shots early in the clock. One of the things I
noticed on film was that OKC got really good looks
(11:19):
for j Dub and for Isaiah Hartenstein out of cleared
side pick and roll. Denver likes to load up the paint,
so if you run pick and Roll in a way
that the roleman is rolling towards the middle of the floor,
Denver can properly congest things around there. But when they
had Jadub like coming out of the corner with Hartenstein
screening and Hartenstein popping or rolling through to like the
(11:40):
short corner on the baseline side, when that entire side
is unoccupied so that there's no help defender, they were
able to get lobs and easy opportunities for Hartenstein rolling
because Denver couldn't properly load up on the rollman when
they actually cleared the side. I think that's an action
that will see quite a bit. Doesn't even have to
necessarily be a ball screen. It can just literally be
(12:00):
j Dub in the corner. Isaah Hartenstein gets a pass
out towards the top of the key the thunder space
on the weak side, and then Hartenstein just dribbles into
a dribble handoff with Jay Dubb coming out of that
right corner, and then just rolls hard to the rim.
They actually did get quite a bit of vertical spacing
opportunity from Isaiah Hartenstein in general in this matchup, in particular,
(12:22):
in large part because Aaron Gordon is pulled away from
the rim to guard j Dub in so many of
these situations, I think we'll see a lot of screening
action for Chet. Chet didn't just say see Michael Porter Jr.
Like I talked about earlier. He saw a good amount
of Jamal Murray in this in this series, and both
of those guys can be really sloppy or lazy navigating screens,
sometimes communicating through switches. Chet got a lot of advantage
(12:42):
opportunities slipping out of those screens, and so I look
for Oklahoma City to use Chet as a way to
attack Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Junior. Throughout the series.
They'll run like wide pinned downs too, so like they'll
have like they'll they'll literally just put you know, Chet
in the right corner and they'll have Dorts screen down
for him so that they have Jamal Murray and Michael
(13:03):
Porter Junior defending an off ball action And all it
takes is one of those guys to be lazy and
there's a or to botch of communication and they can
get an advantage for Chet there. And the biggest thing
for Chet's just gonna be is three point shooting. If
Denver gets to the point where they feel like they
can ignore him off ball, that could be a big
swing in this series. And that's gonna be a big
swing for a bunch of these guys. Dort Caruso is
a big one. Like I wouldn't be surprised if we
(13:25):
saw Denver do some JANKI stuff like just putting Jokic
on Alex Caruso and having him sit in the paint
like a lot of those guys are gonna have to
hit shots. Hiding Yokic on a non shooter is gonna
be one of the janky things that we see Denver try.
I think we're gonna see a lot of that kind
of like janky experimental stuff like I think we'll see zone.
We'll see traditional zone, but I think we'll also see
(13:46):
that double teaming zone that we saw in their fourth
game this year. And again, all it was was they
basically just treated it as a two to three where
Hart and Seign would be back in the paint. They'd
have two guys on the wings and the two guys
at the top of the zone as soon as Shae
crossed half court, which is double team in and then
those guys, the three guys that were on the back line,
they would come up to like bait them as decision makers,
(14:08):
but they were willing to concede pretty much any jump
shot above the break or in that like elbow area,
and Okay sees offense really fell apart in that stretch.
It's just kind of a weird situation to get your
shots out of or like you're taking a wide open
above the break three but there's players behind you on
the play like it just kind of feels weird and
it can get guys out of rhythm. I think we'll
(14:28):
see some of that as well. I mentioned hiding Yokic
on a non shooter processing is gonna be big, Like
Denver knows they haven't experience an IQ advantage in this series,
and I expect them to try to exploit that through
jankie schemes. But this is a smarter Oklahoma City team
than they were last year. I was really impressed in
general with how they handled Memphis. Memphis is very similarly
(14:49):
to Denver, a team that likes to load up the
strong side and force you to beat them with the pass,
and there were several There were several examples in this
in that first round series and over the course of
the season where I've seen Oklahoma City show a lot
of growth processing in the middle of the floor, meaning
like when Shay hits the role man, when a guy
cuts in or flashes into the middle of the lane
out of a Shay double team, like those guys are
(15:10):
just quickly reading the floor and making the appropriate kickout passes,
hitting cutters, hitting three point shooters on the weak side.
Speaker 3 (15:16):
Okay.
Speaker 2 (15:16):
See, he is a lot more mature offensively than they
were this time last year Denver. On offense, I think
we'll see Lou dort On, Jamal Murray, Isaai Harten, sign On,
Jokich chet On, Aaron Gordon, J dubb On, Christian Brown
and Shay on Michael Porter Junior. Although we could see
some of those matchups get kind of reconfigured. I wouldn't
be surprised if we saw Chet end up spending more
(15:37):
time on Christian Brown and Jay dub on Aaron Gordon.
If Aaron Gordon has some success posting up on Chet
just using his size and strength, we'll see Aaron Gordon attacking.
You know, perceived mismatches in the post is a big
part of what Denver will look to do in the playoffs.
Yo Kitchen the Post is going to be a really
interesting part of this series. This will be a series
where I think we see Yo Kitchen the Post more
than usual. Again, we talked about it in the Clipper series.
(16:00):
It's a different type of matchup with Zoo, but this
is going to be a series where I think we
see a ton of Jokis post ups. I was digging
through the film today. Jokic including passes, posted up sixty
two times versus Oklahoma City in four games. That's over
fifteen possessions per game. He averaged about ten post ups
per game in the regular season, so he posts up
(16:21):
about fifty percent more often in this matchup than he
does in on average throughout the league. He's gonna be
much more comfortable versus Hartenstein and Chet than he was
against Zoo. And it really is going to come down
to double teams. The Thunder are going to double team,
and then it's going to be a contest between can
ok See be physical and rotate and close those windows
(16:42):
quickly and rush Denver's role players into making mistakes or
missing shots, or is Denver gonna quickly process and bounce
the ball around and get great looks out of it.
And for the record, I think we're gonna see a
bunch of both in this series. One of the I'm
you know, we'll talk about it when I get to
my pick, but I'm expecting a longer series, and I
think this is gonna oscily back and forth between stretches
(17:03):
where Denver's really scoring the ball well and they look
in control, and then stretches where Okac is successfully rushing
them into mistakes, and then Oklahoma City starts to take control.
But starting out of those Denver double teams, that's going
to be that battle of like quick processing and play
finishing versus physicality and speed in rotation, and just which
one of those dynamics ends up controlling getting lou Dort
(17:24):
off of Jamal Murray's gonna be big. Denver is an
excellent screening team and that's gonna be key in this series.
When if Jokic and Christian Brown and other guards can
set good hard screens, they get lou Dort separated off
of Jamal Murray, he's gonna be comfortable and he's gonna
make a lot of good stuff happen. But if Okac
can stay attached to Jamal, they can speed him up,
they can cause him to lose balance on his base
(17:46):
and he can start to misshots and turn the ball over.
And there were stretches in the series in the season
series where Murray looks comfortable, and then there were stretches
where he looked really uncomfortable. And again, it's going to
swing on that specific dynamic off ball attentiveness. Okay, he's
gonna be big.
Speaker 3 (18:01):
Okay.
Speaker 2 (18:02):
See held up pretty well off ball tracking cutters in
the last two games of the season against Denver, but
they got absolutely shredded by cutters in the two games
back in November. If you get caught ball watching against Jokich,
that's death. That's gonna be a big part of Oklahoma
City's attention to detail in this series. The Thunder's best
path to taking care of business in this matchup is
(18:24):
that pressure and speed dynamic, picking up Jamal Murray full court,
wearing him out over the course of the series, speeding
up Denver's role players, playing Michael Porter Junior into a
bad offensive series, staying disciplined with Russell Westbrook. You're athletic
enough to play Russ into a bad series. Russ isn't
going to have the same kinds of advantages in this
series athletically that he's had in many situations this year
(18:49):
for Denver. Right, So, there's only so much you can
do to speed up Yokich. But the other guys are
very susceptible to okay See's speed and physicality on the perimeter,
and that's where Oklahoma City needs to really leverage that
that strength. Lastly, for Oklahoma City, got I work as
a team to keep Denver off the glass. Denver rebounded
almost a third of their own misses in this matchup
in the regular season. If they get killed there, that
(19:11):
could be something that turns into an important margin for Denver.
I'm picking okay See in seven. I think this series
will oscillate back and forth on the engine that is
Denver's offense. Denver's offense is more than good enough to
beat elite defense. The Clippers or the third best defense
in the league this season, and Denver eviscerated them on
(19:32):
that end of the floor in the wins in the series.
With the ookch on the floor, they had a one
to twenty one offensive rating against the top three defense
in the NBA. I think there will be stretches, especially
in Denver, where the Nuggets look in control because they're
just scoring the ball and controlling flow. But I also
think we'll see extended stretches of the series where Oklahoma
City's Denver speeds up. Denver causes them issues on offense
(19:55):
with their physicality and their ball pressure, then Okay see
starts playing with pace, and then they're in control. Oklahoma
City does have more talented basketball players. They have a
better bench, they have real rim protection, they have better
point of attack defenders, they have more reliable offense down
the roster. Like this, this team has a lot of talent.
Their defense has a level of consistency to it that
(20:16):
will keep them in every game. There's gonna be a
lot of half court action in this series, where we're
watching guys like Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Junior fighting
for their lives trying to guard guys like Jadab and
Cheed Holmgren. They're going to have a hard time in
that matchup. Overall, I think Oklahoma City is smart enough
to handle this. I think they're gonna process very well
in this series. I think it's gonna be very fun.
(20:37):
I think it's gonna be back and forth, but I
think Oklahoma City will end up closing this out in
seven games. The pathway for Denver, and again, I do
think this is a real pathway. I would not be
I would be a little surprised if Denver won the series.
I would not be stunned or shocked. Jokic needs to
assert himself as the best player in the series early
and often. The Nuggets offense needs to operate at peak
(20:58):
efficiency for like five or six the seven games. The
pressure of the moment and the experience advantage needs to
lead to Denver being more comfortable than their Okace counterparts.
Like if Aaron Gordon and Jamal Murray just straight up
out play JDub and Chad, that's a big swing in
Denver's favor. Denver would have to take care of the
ball and keep okay see out of transition. They've generally
(21:18):
done a good job in that matchup this season. There
is a pathway, but everything needs to go right. It's
gonna be a really fun series. I'm excited. We're gonna
obviously be breaking down all the games after each night
live on YouTube. That's all I have for this morning.
Speaker 3 (21:31):
Again.
Speaker 2 (21:31):
We'll be back tonight with Colin after Rockets Warriors. After
I finished recording with Colin, we're gonna be going live
on YouTube. That'll probably be up first the Colin Show's
not live, and then it gets produced, so it'll probably
end up going up later in the evening. But the
Warriors game tips off at five point thirty Pacific, so
it'll be done around eight Pacific. I'll be done with
Colin no later than nine pacifics, so I would imagine
(21:54):
right around nine pm Pacific time is when we're gonna
be going live on YouTube. We'll do a reaction to
today's games, and then we will also head over to
Playback after that to do some film and to talk
through talk through you guys's questions and comments. And stuff
along those lines. So lots of basketball today, lots of
(22:14):
content today, looking forward to it.
Speaker 3 (22:15):
I'll see you guys then. What's up guys.
Speaker 2 (22:17):
As always, I appreciate you for listening to and supporting
OOPS tonight. They would actually be really helpful for us
if you guys would take a second and leave a
rating and a review. As always, I appreciate you guys
supporting us, but if you could take a minute to
do that, I'd really appreciate it.
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All right, well, good tonight, you're at the volume.
Speaker 2 (02:33):
Happy Sunday, everybody, Oh ball, if you guys are having
a great weekend. We have a very exciting day of
basketball today. Game one of the second round series between
the Pacers and the Cavs, which I think is going
to be an underrated, fun series, and then a very
very important, very big Game seven between the Rockets and
the Warriors. On several fronts, I think I am personally
very much rooting for Golden State to win that game.
(02:54):
I think they have a I think they match up
in a very interesting way with Minnesota, and I think
that would be a very interesting second round series. And
as you start to go through some of the matchups
in the second round with New York and Boston, Oklahoma
City and Denver, who we're going to talk about today,
Oklahoma City is a minus seven hundred favorite in that series.
Cleveland is a substantial favorite over Indiana. I think that
(03:18):
Minnesota versus Golden State is what the basketball world needs
for an interesting second round series. I think Houston would
get demolished if they ran into Minnesota in the next round.
But we have an awesome night of games tonight. Remember
our schedule tonight looks a little bit different because we
have I'm working with Colin right after the final buzzer
of the Warriors Rockets game. Then we're going to go
(03:40):
live on YouTube after I get done with Colin, and
then we're also going to go on playback after that
to take questions and get interactive with the audience. So
that's a schedule for tonight. In this episode, this morning
series preview for Denver versus Oklahoma City, we're going to
get into that series from every single angle, and then
we'll get out of here and go enjoy those games.
(04:01):
You guys know the job before we get started. Subscribe
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You guys don't miss show announcements. Don't forget about a
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Speaker 3 (04:11):
On Hoops Tonight.
Speaker 2 (04:11):
It's also super helpful if you leave your rating and
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not least, keep dropping mail bag questions in our YouTube
comments so we can keep getting to them throughout the
remainder of the postseason.
Speaker 3 (04:26):
All right, let's talk some basketball.
Speaker 2 (04:28):
So the season series between Denver and OKC a rare
example of a series preview where the regular season information
is somewhat applicable. Most of the core players for both
teams played in all four games. For Denver, Jamal Murray
missed one, Aaron Gordon missed two, and for OKC, Hertenstein
missed two games. But other than that, the core rotation
(04:48):
players for both teams played. They went two and two.
Each team won on each other's floor once. The stars
for both teams looked great at different points and struggle
at different points. So, for instance, in the first Denver
win back in November, the Nuggets did an awesome job
defending Shae Gilds of Alexander. They had him out of
sorts for most of the second half. Christian Brown did
(05:10):
a great job. They forced him into a bunch of turnovers,
Denver methodically walked OKC down. That was a game where
Shay struggled right in the other win for Oklahoma City,
or the other game in back in November. Then Oklahoma
City won, Chet kicked Jokic's ass, and the Thunder defense
shut down shut down the Denver offense, and they ended
up winning that game in convincing fashion. But both of
(05:30):
those games were very early in the season. They met
twice later in the season. The first game was close
until the fourth quarter and then the Thunder blitzed them
with their bench group. Ironically, a lot of really high
level play from Keson Wallace and Alex Cruso during that stretch.
But then they played again a couple nights later, and
that game was close until the second half when the
(05:52):
Nuggets successfully deployed a very gimmicky zone defense where they
double team Shay crossing half court.
Speaker 3 (05:58):
We'll talk a little bit about that.
Speaker 2 (06:00):
Down Oklahoma City's offense, Denver started getting out in transition.
Denver scored one hundred and forty points in that game
to get a win. So a lot of really interesting
data in favor of both teams coming from the regular season.
Actual big picture data. In the four games, Denver averaged
one hundred and twelve points per one hundred possessions on offense.
Oklahoma City averaged one hundred and eighteen. Denver did win
(06:20):
the rebounding battle. They grabbed fifty two point two percent
of available rebounds thirty two point two percent of their
own misses. That's obviously going to be a big factor
in this series odds. Again, all of our odds are
provided by DraftKings. Oklahoma City's minus seven hundred to win
this series. That's a substantial favorite. Boston, by the way,
for comparison, is minus eight hundred to beat the Knicks,
(06:43):
so they view the nuggets chances to beat Oklahoma City
as roughly the same as New York's chances to beat Boston.
I disagree with that. I think that there's good value
in the betting market for Denver here. Denver at plus
five hundred as the underdog.
Speaker 3 (06:59):
I like that bet.
Speaker 2 (07:00):
I think the thunder deserve to be a pretty substantial favorite,
But I think Denver has a much better chance to
upset Oklahoma City than New York does to upset Boston.
A really simple way for me to describe it is
Jokic puts so much pressure on Oklahoma City's defense. That
is a problem Oklahoma City can't really solve. They have
(07:22):
to overcome it by winning other parts of the series.
With New York versus Boston, they don't have a single
thing that they do well enough to present Boston with
those sorts of issues. So I don't agree with those
odds being as similar as they are. I would have
put Oklahoma City in more of that like minus three
hundred minus three point fifty kind of range. So I
(07:45):
do think there's some interesting betting value on Denver in
this series. Oklahoma City on offense, so the matchups are
going to look like this. We'll see Christian Brown on
Shae for most of the series, Aaron Gordon on Jdubb,
although I think they might consider mixing that up if
they start getting killed on the back line and they
might have to consider putting, you know, putting you know,
(08:05):
either an extra guard on the floor like Russell Westbrook
and taking Michael Porter Junior off and having to have
him guard Ja Dubb. Just I wouldn't be surprised if
they got a little gimmicky to try to keep Aaron
Gordon closer to the basket. But I do think Aaron
Gordon will start the series on j DUB, Jamal Moorey
Murray will start on Lou Dort, although we'll also probably
see Jamal Murray spend some time on Chet Holmgren. Michael
(08:25):
Porter Junior will start on Chet Holmgren, and Nicole Jokich
will start on Isaiah Hartenstein. Defending shake Yildes was Alexander.
It's gonna be a steady diet of Christian Brown. We're
gonna see a mix of at the level coverages, deeper
drop coverages in his own looks, and again, all that
means is in the ball screen. Christian Brown's constantly going
to be chasing Shaye over the top, but we'll see
(08:45):
Jokic come up all the way to the level of
the screen sometimes and then we'll see him sitting a
little bit further back, meeting Shay closer to like the elbow,
like around the foul line area. Shaye did kind of
have Christian Brown figured out in their last two games.
He started beating him just one on one to the basket.
He was getting more separation. But Brown did have success
against Shaye earlier in the season. He was able to
(09:07):
apply some good ball pressure and back pressure that that
cast some issues for Shaye. So that's gonna be a
big swing factor in the series. Just how good of
a job can Christian Brown do on Shae? How physical
is he allowed to be? How much success can he
have using his size and strength on ball against Shae.
Speaker 3 (09:23):
In pick and roll.
Speaker 2 (09:24):
The higher that Yokic comes out to the level, the
more likely he is to get split. And there were
a lot of examples, And what I mean by that
is like you can imagine Shae coming off of a
ball screen. Yokic comes up to the level, but Shae
just comes off the ball screen and then quickly crosses
over and shoots that gap between the screener and Yokic
when he's up there at the level. And there were
(09:45):
several examples on film where Jokic when he came out
that high did get beat pretty badly by Shaye. And
in those situations, their defense completely fell apart and they
started giving up layups. But Jokic did lock some quality
possessions on tape. He was able to successfully protect the
rim against Shae in a deeper drop, not a full
deep drop where he's like on his heels all the
(10:07):
way back at the rim, but rather meeting Shae closer
to like the foul line area, where he's kind of
like in a stance that's kind of funneling him towards
the side of the rim that they're already on, like
towards the sideline, so to speak. And in that situation,
he can actually generate some contact with Shae before he
gets to the rim, which can prevent Shae from really
(10:28):
getting explosive downhill. And he actually had some really nice
rim protection possessions against Shae in that kind of like
middle drop where he's meeting him more in the middle.
Speaker 3 (10:36):
Of the floor.
Speaker 2 (10:37):
I think we'll see a lot of mixing up coverages.
I think the deeper drop will be a base coverage
for Denver, but I think they'll mix in the occasional blitz.
I think they will mix in some at the level stuff.
I think they'll mix in zone, out of timeout, out
of dead ball situations. We'll talk some more about the
zone coverages here in a little bit. Jalen Williams, I
think we'll see more of a deeper drop against him
(10:58):
as well. It's been a mixed with Jalen Williams in
ball screens against Denver this year like, there are possessions
where he does a nice job of baiting Jokic to
step out, and he can create really easy lobs for
Isaiah Hartenstein. But he was also the guy who was
quick to settle for some tough contested mid range jump
shots early in the clock. One of the things I
noticed on film was that OKC got really good looks
(11:19):
for j Dub and for Isaiah Hartenstein out of cleared
side pick and roll. Denver likes to load up the paint,
so if you run pick and Roll in a way
that the roleman is rolling towards the middle of the floor,
Denver can properly congest things around there. But when they
had Jadub like coming out of the corner with Hartenstein
screening and Hartenstein popping or rolling through to like the
(11:40):
short corner on the baseline side, when that entire side
is unoccupied so that there's no help defender, they were
able to get lobs and easy opportunities for Hartenstein rolling
because Denver couldn't properly load up on the rollman when
they actually cleared the side. I think that's an action
that will see quite a bit. Doesn't even have to
necessarily be a ball screen. It can just literally be
(12:00):
j Dub in the corner. Isaah Hartenstein gets a pass
out towards the top of the key the thunder space
on the weak side, and then Hartenstein just dribbles into
a dribble handoff with Jay Dubb coming out of that
right corner, and then just rolls hard to the rim.
They actually did get quite a bit of vertical spacing
opportunity from Isaiah Hartenstein in general in this matchup, in particular,
(12:22):
in large part because Aaron Gordon is pulled away from
the rim to guard j Dub in so many of
these situations, I think we'll see a lot of screening
action for Chet. Chet didn't just say see Michael Porter Jr.
Like I talked about earlier. He saw a good amount
of Jamal Murray in this in this series, and both
of those guys can be really sloppy or lazy navigating screens,
sometimes communicating through switches. Chet got a lot of advantage
(12:42):
opportunities slipping out of those screens, and so I look
for Oklahoma City to use Chet as a way to
attack Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Junior. Throughout the series.
They'll run like wide pinned downs too, so like they'll
have like they'll they'll literally just put you know, Chet
in the right corner and they'll have Dorts screen down
for him so that they have Jamal Murray and Michael
(13:03):
Porter Junior defending an off ball action And all it
takes is one of those guys to be lazy and
there's a or to botch of communication and they can
get an advantage for Chet there. And the biggest thing
for Chet's just gonna be is three point shooting. If
Denver gets to the point where they feel like they
can ignore him off ball, that could be a big
swing in this series. And that's gonna be a big
swing for a bunch of these guys. Dort Caruso is
a big one. Like I wouldn't be surprised if we
(13:25):
saw Denver do some JANKI stuff like just putting Jokic
on Alex Caruso and having him sit in the paint
like a lot of those guys are gonna have to
hit shots. Hiding Yokic on a non shooter is gonna
be one of the janky things that we see Denver try.
I think we're gonna see a lot of that kind
of like janky experimental stuff like I think we'll see zone.
We'll see traditional zone, but I think we'll also see
(13:46):
that double teaming zone that we saw in their fourth
game this year. And again, all it was was they
basically just treated it as a two to three where
Hart and Seign would be back in the paint. They'd
have two guys on the wings and the two guys
at the top of the zone as soon as Shae
crossed half court, which is double team in and then
those guys, the three guys that were on the back line,
they would come up to like bait them as decision makers,
(14:08):
but they were willing to concede pretty much any jump
shot above the break or in that like elbow area,
and Okay sees offense really fell apart in that stretch.
It's just kind of a weird situation to get your
shots out of or like you're taking a wide open
above the break three but there's players behind you on
the play like it just kind of feels weird and
it can get guys out of rhythm. I think we'll
(14:28):
see some of that as well. I mentioned hiding Yokic
on a non shooter processing is gonna be big, Like
Denver knows they haven't experience an IQ advantage in this series,
and I expect them to try to exploit that through
jankie schemes. But this is a smarter Oklahoma City team
than they were last year. I was really impressed in
general with how they handled Memphis. Memphis is very similarly
(14:49):
to Denver, a team that likes to load up the
strong side and force you to beat them with the pass,
and there were several There were several examples in this
in that first round series and over the course of
the season where I've seen Oklahoma City show a lot
of growth processing in the middle of the floor, meaning
like when Shay hits the role man, when a guy
cuts in or flashes into the middle of the lane
out of a Shay double team, like those guys are
(15:10):
just quickly reading the floor and making the appropriate kickout passes,
hitting cutters, hitting three point shooters on the weak side.
Speaker 3 (15:16):
Okay.
Speaker 2 (15:16):
See, he is a lot more mature offensively than they
were this time last year Denver. On offense, I think
we'll see Lou dort On, Jamal Murray, Isaai Harten, sign On,
Jokich chet On, Aaron Gordon, J dubb On, Christian Brown
and Shay on Michael Porter Junior. Although we could see
some of those matchups get kind of reconfigured. I wouldn't
be surprised if we saw Chet end up spending more
(15:37):
time on Christian Brown and Jay dub on Aaron Gordon.
If Aaron Gordon has some success posting up on Chet
just using his size and strength, we'll see Aaron Gordon attacking.
You know, perceived mismatches in the post is a big
part of what Denver will look to do in the playoffs.
Yo Kitchen the Post is going to be a really
interesting part of this series. This will be a series
where I think we see Yo Kitchen the Post more
than usual. Again, we talked about it in the Clipper series.
(16:00):
It's a different type of matchup with Zoo, but this
is going to be a series where I think we
see a ton of Jokis post ups. I was digging
through the film today. Jokic including passes, posted up sixty
two times versus Oklahoma City in four games. That's over
fifteen possessions per game. He averaged about ten post ups
per game in the regular season, so he posts up
(16:21):
about fifty percent more often in this matchup than he
does in on average throughout the league. He's gonna be
much more comfortable versus Hartenstein and Chet than he was
against Zoo. And it really is going to come down
to double teams. The Thunder are going to double team,
and then it's going to be a contest between can
ok See be physical and rotate and close those windows
(16:42):
quickly and rush Denver's role players into making mistakes or
missing shots, or is Denver gonna quickly process and bounce
the ball around and get great looks out of it.
And for the record, I think we're gonna see a
bunch of both in this series. One of the I'm
you know, we'll talk about it when I get to
my pick, but I'm expecting a longer series, and I
think this is gonna oscily back and forth between stretches
(17:03):
where Denver's really scoring the ball well and they look
in control, and then stretches where Okac is successfully rushing
them into mistakes, and then Oklahoma City starts to take control.
But starting out of those Denver double teams, that's going
to be that battle of like quick processing and play
finishing versus physicality and speed in rotation, and just which
one of those dynamics ends up controlling getting lou Dort
(17:24):
off of Jamal Murray's gonna be big. Denver is an
excellent screening team and that's gonna be key in this series.
When if Jokic and Christian Brown and other guards can
set good hard screens, they get lou Dort separated off
of Jamal Murray, he's gonna be comfortable and he's gonna
make a lot of good stuff happen. But if Okac
can stay attached to Jamal, they can speed him up,
they can cause him to lose balance on his base
(17:46):
and he can start to misshots and turn the ball over.
And there were stretches in the series in the season
series where Murray looks comfortable, and then there were stretches
where he looked really uncomfortable. And again, it's going to
swing on that specific dynamic off ball attentiveness. Okay, he's
gonna be big.
Speaker 3 (18:01):
Okay.
Speaker 2 (18:02):
See held up pretty well off ball tracking cutters in
the last two games of the season against Denver, but
they got absolutely shredded by cutters in the two games
back in November. If you get caught ball watching against Jokich,
that's death. That's gonna be a big part of Oklahoma
City's attention to detail in this series. The Thunder's best
path to taking care of business in this matchup is
(18:24):
that pressure and speed dynamic, picking up Jamal Murray full court,
wearing him out over the course of the series, speeding
up Denver's role players, playing Michael Porter Junior into a
bad offensive series, staying disciplined with Russell Westbrook. You're athletic
enough to play Russ into a bad series. Russ isn't
going to have the same kinds of advantages in this
series athletically that he's had in many situations this year
(18:49):
for Denver. Right, So, there's only so much you can
do to speed up Yokich. But the other guys are
very susceptible to okay See's speed and physicality on the perimeter,
and that's where Oklahoma City needs to really leverage that
that strength. Lastly, for Oklahoma City, got I work as
a team to keep Denver off the glass. Denver rebounded
almost a third of their own misses in this matchup
in the regular season. If they get killed there, that
(19:11):
could be something that turns into an important margin for Denver.
I'm picking okay See in seven. I think this series
will oscillate back and forth on the engine that is
Denver's offense. Denver's offense is more than good enough to
beat elite defense. The Clippers or the third best defense
in the league this season, and Denver eviscerated them on
(19:32):
that end of the floor in the wins in the series.
With the ookch on the floor, they had a one
to twenty one offensive rating against the top three defense
in the NBA. I think there will be stretches, especially
in Denver, where the Nuggets look in control because they're
just scoring the ball and controlling flow. But I also
think we'll see extended stretches of the series where Oklahoma
City's Denver speeds up. Denver causes them issues on offense
(19:55):
with their physicality and their ball pressure, then Okay see
starts playing with pace, and then they're in control. Oklahoma
City does have more talented basketball players. They have a
better bench, they have real rim protection, they have better
point of attack defenders, they have more reliable offense down
the roster. Like this, this team has a lot of talent.
Their defense has a level of consistency to it that
(20:16):
will keep them in every game. There's gonna be a
lot of half court action in this series, where we're
watching guys like Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Junior fighting
for their lives trying to guard guys like Jadab and
Cheed Holmgren. They're going to have a hard time in
that matchup. Overall, I think Oklahoma City is smart enough
to handle this. I think they're gonna process very well
in this series. I think it's gonna be very fun.
(20:37):
I think it's gonna be back and forth, but I
think Oklahoma City will end up closing this out in
seven games. The pathway for Denver, and again, I do
think this is a real pathway. I would not be
I would be a little surprised if Denver won the series.
I would not be stunned or shocked. Jokic needs to
assert himself as the best player in the series early
and often. The Nuggets offense needs to operate at peak
(20:58):
efficiency for like five or six the seven games. The
pressure of the moment and the experience advantage needs to
lead to Denver being more comfortable than their Okace counterparts.
Like if Aaron Gordon and Jamal Murray just straight up
out play JDub and Chad, that's a big swing in
Denver's favor. Denver would have to take care of the
ball and keep okay see out of transition. They've generally
(21:18):
done a good job in that matchup this season. There
is a pathway, but everything needs to go right. It's
gonna be a really fun series. I'm excited. We're gonna
obviously be breaking down all the games after each night
live on YouTube. That's all I have for this morning.
Speaker 3 (21:31):
Again.
Speaker 2 (21:31):
We'll be back tonight with Colin after Rockets Warriors. After
I finished recording with Colin, we're gonna be going live
on YouTube. That'll probably be up first the Colin Show's
not live, and then it gets produced, so it'll probably
end up going up later in the evening. But the
Warriors game tips off at five point thirty Pacific, so
it'll be done around eight Pacific. I'll be done with
Colin no later than nine pacifics, so I would imagine
(21:54):
right around nine pm Pacific time is when we're gonna
be going live on YouTube. We'll do a reaction to
today's games, and then we will also head over to
Playback after that to do some film and to talk
through talk through you guys's questions and comments. And stuff
along those lines. So lots of basketball today, lots of
(22:14):
content today, looking forward to it.
Speaker 3 (22:15):
I'll see you guys then. What's up guys.
Speaker 2 (22:17):
As always, I appreciate you for listening to and supporting
OOPS tonight. They would actually be really helpful for us
if you guys would take a second and leave a
rating and a review. As always, I appreciate you guys
supporting us, but if you could take a minute to
do that, I'd really appreciate it.
Speaker 1 (22:32):
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