May 12, 2025 • 32 mins
Jason reacts to the Indiana Pacers dominating the Cleveland Cavaliers in Game 4 of their second round series, Tyrese Haliburton driving the Pacers ship, Donovan Mitchell struggling, and more. Then he discusses all four playoff series and what we’ve learned about each team at this point in the playoffs.
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Speaker 3 (01:45):
Slash audio. All right, welcome to Hoops tonight.
Speaker 2 (01:58):
You're at the volume heavy Monday, everybody of bald You
guys had a great weekend.
Speaker 3 (02:02):
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Speaker 2 (02:03):
Guys. This morning, we're going to be reacting to the
Indiana Pacers beat down of the Cleveland Cavaliers last night.
I was trying to think of a way to express it.
Here's the best way I could express what happened to
the Calves last night. They outscored the Pacers seventy to
forty nine in the second half and lost by twenty
with one of the most destructive performances I've seen in
my time as a basketball fan, as the Pacers beat
(02:26):
up on the Caves to take a three to one
lead in that series. We'll be breaking down that game
from the perspective of both teams. Then after that, we're
about halfway through the second round at this point, and
I want to take some time just to zoom out
and look at all four series, and I want to
talk about, like where I'm at with all those series
at this point, what I think will happen moving forward,
and what I've learned about the teams involved with those series.
(02:48):
So we'll briefly touch on all four series at the
tail end of the show. You guys are the joke
before we get started. Subscribed to the Hoops Tonight YouTube channels.
Who don't miss any more of our videos. Follow me
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(03:09):
but not least, keep dropping mailbag questions in the YouTube
comments so we keep hitting them throughout the remainder of
the postseason. All right, let's talk some basketball. So we
talked after Game one. If you remember about how that
game was an awesome introduction for any casual fan who
doesn't really know what the Pacers do. It was an
opportunity for them to learn about Pacers basketball and what
(03:31):
it looks like. And yet somehow last night put even
that performance to shame. It was a complete two way
dominance in the first half that left absolutely no chance
for recovery, as the Pacers outscore the Cavs eighty to
thirty nine in the first half, making it so that
even though they got blown out in the second half,
(03:54):
they still ended up winning by twenty. They dominated literally
every single facet of the game. I want to start
with their defense. They completely flummixed the Calves offense with
relentless ball pressure picking up before any any guard had
a chance to like get ahead of steam going up
the court, they're running into a pacer that was flattening
them out and getting rid of any of that pace
(04:15):
that they were trying to bring into the front court.
It was affecting everybody, Even Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland
were struggling against the pressure. They were picking up after missus.
They're picking up after makes it completely shut down any
of the transition opportunities that are such an important part
of the Caves offense. The Cavs log just two transition
points total in that first half during that run, and
(04:38):
that again, you're just cutting off the most important part
of that Calves offense. Again, we talked about this before
early in the season when when we were discussing like
the three things that made the Calves a different team
than last year. If you guys remember, it was just
the overall improvement of Darius Garland and Evan Mobley. Both
of them are injured in this series. Darius Garland playing
(04:59):
on a toe that's apparently splinted up so tight that
it relieves pain, but that he can't actually bend the toe.
And then Evan Mobley playing on a bad ankle, and
so you get the two guys that are bringing the
gigantic improvement year over year both banged up. Secondly the
switching and forcing turnovers and thirdly the getting out in
(05:20):
transition and so essentially a little bit of talent influx
with Garland and Mobley, and then they're turning teams over
by switching and playing passing lanes, and they're playing a
ton of transition basketball with a lot of pace moving
the ball around, and so Pacers don't turn the ball over.
They're picking you up and preventing your transition pushes with
ball pressure.
Speaker 3 (05:39):
And the two you.
Speaker 2 (05:41):
Know, talent ads so to speak, for the Cavs this year,
are not anywhere near one hundred percent physically, and that
has just completely flipped this dynamic to becoming a massive problem.
Even Donovan Mitchell struggled, though Donovan Mitchell has killed the
Pacers in this series, and he was just three for
eleven with zero assists and two turnovers in that first
(06:01):
half run for the Pacers. The Pacers dominated the glass,
They out rebounded the Cavs twenty two to fifteen in
the first half, and then they just put on an
offensive clinic a one point fifty seven offensive rating in transition,
a one thirty six offensive rating in the half court,
which is astronomical. They generated fourteen catch and shoot jump
shots and made ten of them. That's two point one
(06:25):
four points per shot. They hammered post mismatches right away
to start the game. Like one of the first possessions,
it's Aaron Nee Smith is posting up Darius Garland and
they throw it to him. He draws a double team
swing swing, wide open three. They're posting Siakam against Max Strus,
They're posting Miles Turner against a bunch of the Cleveland guards,
(06:46):
and they Cleveland just didn't have the ability to prevent
those mismatches from burning them. One of the things that
Indiana does really well is they throw the skip pass,
and when you throw the skip pass, that's what burns
a typical post front bracket coverage. So we talked about
this coverage a lot with like the Miami Heat, because
they post, they front the post all the time, but
(07:07):
when you try to front the post, there's a passing
angle over the top. You try to close that window
by having a guy come from the weak side and
basically bracket on the other side of the post player.
But that's what opens up the skip pass, and the
Calves are so paranoid about the skip pass that that
guy's staying home, and so there's just a huge passing
window to float the ball over the top to these
(07:28):
against these post fronts, and the Pacers just made really
good post entry passes all night and just continually burned
the Calves every single time they switched ball screens.
Speaker 3 (07:37):
They lit up the zone.
Speaker 2 (07:38):
We talked after game two about how the Pacers kind
of started to figure out the zone in the second half. Well,
they did really well against it again tonight. They faced
it eight times in the first half and scored on
six of those possessions. Every which way they beat it
by flashing middle, getting the ball to Siakam and shooters
relocating off of it. They generated a wide open three
(07:59):
frame nemhard that way. They beat it with the skip
pass TJ McConnell on the right wing. The low man
on the left side was sunk all the way into
the paint. Rifles will skip past to Thomas Bryant, who
it's a mildly contested three out of the left corner.
They beat it by screening the top man ball screen
at the top Obi top en rolls out of it,
ball in the pocket, left handed layup. Similar type of
(08:20):
thing Tyre's Halliburton with Thomas Bryant. Thomas Bryant rolls. When
he rolls, the low man has to grab him. Tyree
swings the ball. It gets skipped all the way back
to the corner because the guy who would be responsible
for the corner is now guarding Thomas Bryant on the roll.
Another wide open three on the weak side that goes in.
They beat it with the flair screen. The three that
Tyre's Halliburton hit that was like twenty seven to twenty
(08:41):
eight feet off of the right wing. All that was
is they flare screen the top man. Max Struce was
the other top man, but he was sunk into the
paint covering a flasher skip over the top wide open
three for Tyre's Halliburton, it goes in. The Pacers basically
just ran their same man demand principles that they always
run against the zone and it worked extremely well as
they basically just played the calves out of that zone.
(09:05):
I look at the Indiana Pacers like a machine, and
that machine was operating at peak efficiency on both ends
of the floor last night, and it just chewed up
and spit out the Caves and they had absolutely no chance.
When the Pacers are playing like that, you just get
to lose. And it's an interesting dynamic to keep in
mind for the Conference finals. There's just a higher level
(09:27):
that they can get to on both ends of the
floor this year, as all of their players have made
moderate improvements, even their star Tyree Saliburton, just because he's
healthier than he was in years past. So before we
get to the Calves, I just want to go into
our next segment because I think this will be a
good kind of format for us to touch base on
the series kind of zooming out as well as what
(09:47):
the Calves are going through in terms of the slander
that they're catching all over the NBA world today. So again,
what I'm gonna do is I'm gonna go through all
four series and we'll start with Pacers Calves. But I
want to just talk with where I'm at with the
series in terms of just what I expect moving forward,
and then I want to talk about what we've learned
about the teams involved, So Pacers, Calves. Where am I
at at this point? It's certainly not over. We know
(10:10):
the Calves can beat the Pacers at home, they basically
did in Game two, they just tricked it off. And
we know that the Calves can beat the Pacers in Indy.
They just did it in Game three they blow them out.
But they're just operating so far below their ceiling right
now that I view it as pretty unlikely. They're completely
shook by just the dynamic at play and they're losing
confidence and a lot of specific parts of their roster,
(10:32):
like Ty Jerome came in and immediately started turning the
ball over again.
Speaker 3 (10:36):
It's I've.
Speaker 2 (10:38):
As big of a drop off from regular season performance
to playoff performance in this series that I can remember
from a player, Like he was the best guard that
I watched off the bench in the NBA this year.
I actually thought he was better than Peyton Prichard, and
Peyton Richard was amazing in Madison Square Garden in Game
three and has been a deeply useful player for the
for the Celtics, and Ti Jerome has been like has
(11:01):
literally decomposed in this series. It's absolutely wild DeAndre Hunter
came in and was missing jumpers so bad wide left
that you could literally tell on the broadcast as the
ball was coming out of his hands that it was
going to be off to the left, Like he was
just completely out of sorts with his jump shot. Jared
Allen was like brutally bad on defense in this game,
(11:23):
like consistently out of position, just like misreading plays, like
overplaying a like a random pressure of a high post
catch from like Thomas Bryant that ends up giving up
a layup, or jumping onto the wrong side of a
screen with Dean Wade and giving up a driving lane
going to the opposite side of the screen like he
was bad in this game. Garland looks like a shell
(11:44):
of himself. And then again, this was the first game
where they held Donovan Mitchell in check. So like, I
even though I think we all know the Cavs can
win this series, Like it's really simple. You go home
and you beat the Pacers. Go and beat the Pacers
at home, you're certainly capable of it. You go back
to Indy and you beat them like you did in
game three, and then you have Game seven at home
where anything can happen. I just don't think the Calves
(12:04):
are playing like the Calves right now. If you really
zoom out of this series, the only game where they
really looked like the Calves was Game three, and in
all three of the other games, even Game two when
they won, it was like they were kind of hanging
on for dear life for the most part and getting
the shit kicked out of them in most of the
moments of the series. And so I'm guessing the Pacers
end up closing this out in six. I bet they
(12:26):
go up to Cleveland drop Game five, and then come
home and blow out the Calves to win in Game six.
But certainly the Calves have a chance, But at this
point I would be surprised if the Pacers didn't win.
Speaker 3 (12:37):
Now what have I learned?
Speaker 2 (12:40):
Honestly, the series hasn't gone that much differently than I expected.
I picked the Calves in six. I specifically said to
Carter in our series preview that I thought Indiana was
a very similar team to Cleveland that would cause them
lots of issues in the series, and I expected them
to win multiple games. What has happened is the Racers
stole a game they should have lost. They were down
(13:02):
seven with forty seconds left in Game two and stole
that game. And then the Calves are also pretty substantially
beat up by injuries, and so those two things have
been enough to flip the outcome to where Indiana looks
like the better team by a reasonable chunk, similar to
what I expected from the Calves before the series. That said,
I want to be clear, even though that dynamic has flipped,
(13:23):
I've also been super impressed by Indy. The way that
their offense and their defense has had this level of
success against a very good Calves team has given me
a lot more optimism that they absolutely can beat a
Boston in the Conference finals. They certainly could beat in
New York. So I viewed the Pacers as a substantial
(13:44):
finals threat now in a way that I didn't see
them last year, because they're in just such a great
offensive groove and they're so connected defensively right now. And
so yeah, like the Pacers have shown themselves to be
the better team at this point. There's just some context
in terms of the Calves operating well below their peak
in terms of some injuries. But credit to Pacers this
(14:06):
is it's equal both ways. Like the Pacers have blown
them out in two of these games, and if you
really kind of zoom out, the Pacers have had a
ton of success that has been related to just how
great the Pacers are. That is separate from some of
the issues that the Calves are having with injuries and
their flow and their confidence and that sort of stuff. So,
like again, like I just want to I just want
(14:28):
to make sure that we give that credit to the
Pacers as well, and that it's.
Speaker 3 (14:31):
Not just a Calves thing.
Speaker 2 (14:34):
On the Calves front, I see a lot of people
burying them today. I've seen a lot of the twenty
fifteen Hawks references getting thrown around. And here's all I'll
say about that. I was a basketball fan during that age.
I remember watching the twenty fifteen Hawks. The twy fifteen
Hawks were a mediocre basketball team that just beat up on.
Speaker 3 (14:54):
The Eastern Conference.
Speaker 2 (14:56):
This Calves team showed an obvious upside and had an
obvious like talent level that they had in terms of
the level Darius Garland was playing at before he got hurt,
the level Donovan Mitchell was playing at all season, the
level Even Mobley was playing out all season. Jared Allen
kind of encroaching on that top seven, top six centers
in the NBA, the level of play they were getting
(15:18):
from ty Jrome off the bench, the elite catch and
shoot play down the roster. This is a more talented,
more dynamic team by a substantial margin than the twenty
fifteen Hawks. They run into a very hot, very good
Indiana Pacers team, and they're way below their peak efficiency
because Darius Garland is like the guy that drives their offense. Darius,
(15:45):
Like I talked about this all year. I like Donovan Mitchell,
I really do. I think he's a great player, but
I've talked about it throughout the year that I view
Darius Garland as like their most important offensive player because
he's the guy that the dynamic I kept talking about
all season was just his ability to get dribble penetration.
He gets dribble penetration on everyone, and that just instantly
compromises your defense from like the start of the shot
(16:07):
clock and you're just chasing your tail the rest of
the possession because Darius Garland is so damn fast that
he can get to wherever he wants to on the floor.
Darius Garland with a bad toe can't. Like there was
a possession against TJ. McConnell in the first half where
he's just trying to dribble around him on the left wing,
and like TJ, looks faster than him, and like TJ
is a very good athlete, TJ is like one of
(16:28):
the most underrated dribble penetration guys in the league. But
Darius is faster than him, and Darius would look slower
than him in that matchup on the left wing. And
so like Darius Garland is like quote unquote the head
of the Snake for their offense in terms of their
ability to get the defense and rotation. Donovan Mitchell is
a capable passer who has grown as a passer over
the course of his career, but he is a scorer.
(16:50):
That is what he does, and he has tried to
solve problems in this series by scoring the basketball. Darius
Garland is the guy who greases the wheels of their
offense and gets the ball moving from side to side,
gets the defense into rotation, and so having him be
operating that far below his capability has substantially changed the
(17:10):
way the Calves play offense from the regular season, even
if you watched that first half, just the level of
involvement from Darius Garland compared to what it would look
like when you'd watch the Calves back in like January, December, February,
it's just so different, missing that bit of explosion from
Darius Garland. So like, here's the thing. Were the Calves
as good as the thunder No? Were the Calves as
(17:33):
good as the Celtics.
Speaker 3 (17:35):
No.
Speaker 2 (17:36):
Coming into the playoffs, I ranked them as the fourth
most likely team to win the championship. So I wasn't
quite as high on the Calves as everyone else was.
That said, after that Heat series, their offense was clicking
at such a level that I did view them as
a legitimate threat, a puncher's chance threat to beat the
Boston Celtics, so much so that I was like, at
(17:56):
least considering the idea that I would potentially pay them
in a Celtic series. But then Darius Garland gets hurt.
They're never able to recapture that offensive verb that they
had before the Darius Garland injury, and now it just
looks like they're dead in the water. And so again
I think it's a little bit of both. Are they
(18:16):
a little bit overrated from what they looked like as
a sixty four win regular season team. Yes, are they
the twenty fifteen Hawks? No, they're They're certainly better than that.
That's kind of how I felt about the Calves after
tonight and the last night, and honestly, like, as far
as the future holds for the Calves, like Darius Garland
(18:37):
has had perpetual injury issues throughout his career, and it's
just something to keep in mind that he finally has
this super healthy season where he looks like an All
NBA caliber guard and then he just breaks down at
the tail end of the season. It's just super unfortunate.
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Speaker 3 (19:26):
All Right, Boston, New York? Where am I at? With
the series? Right? Now, the Knicks.
Speaker 2 (19:33):
Only needed to win one game at Madison Square Garden
to put themselves in great spot to win the series.
So even though they lost Game three, it's certainly not
over for them. They have a very good chance to
win Game four tonight. So the way I would express
their chances is like this. I think tonight they have
about a coin flip chance to beat Boston. If Boston
goes in and doesn't shoot the ball as well, it'll
(19:53):
be another rockfight, and in a rock fight, if they
can keep things close enough, Jalen Brunson has the ability
to close things late, So call it about a coin
flip chance. If they win that game, they're up three
to one, and the next three games you're in Boston
for Game five, back to MSG for Game six, and
then in Boston for Game seven. I think they have
about a coin flip chance to win one of those
(20:16):
next three games, because even an MSG game in game six,
if it's three to two, that's an elimination game. You're
going to get a better effort from Boston. Then you'll
even get tonight necessarily, right, So I viewed about a
fifty percent chance to win a win tonight and about
a fifty percent chance to win one of the following
three games if they win tonight. So a basic, you know,
(20:38):
kind of a transitive way to look at it is
fifty percent, fifty percent is twenty five percent. So I
look at it like seventy five twenty five in favor
of Boston to win the series at this point, moving forward,
now with each team, what have we learned With the Celtics.
I said coming into the postseason that I viewed them
as the best team available among all the sixteen teams
(21:01):
because of their combination of two way talent. They just
have the best assortment of players that can successfully play
on both ends of the floor in the playoffs, combined
with the veteran experience necessary to be comfortable and to
make adjustments and to do all the things that you
to handle all the things that you encounter typically in
the postseason. I think that through this series that ceiling
(21:23):
has been expressed. I should say through this postseason to
this point, they've shown their ceiling. Game three against New
York was a perfect example of it. I still believe
in that ceiling. However, Boston has demonstrated that they're just
a little bit more rickety, a little bit more prone
to showing their floor than we originally thought, to the
(21:47):
point where they dropped a very very important Game two
at home showing that floor. So like, while I feel
kind of still the same way about the Boston Celtics
and what they can reach in terms of their top end,
I kind of view their range of potential outcomes as lower.
So like I'm at this point, like I wouldn't be
(22:07):
surprised that they won the title, but I also wouldn't
be surprised that they lost in this round. And that
just kind of shows the wide range of outcomes. And
the main thing that is really manifested in terms of
the basketball side of it is they don't have an
audible when their drive and kick generate quality three's offense
doesn't work. They don't have offensive versatility in terms of
(22:30):
finding a legit like fifty plus percent guy who can
get down ten feet inside of the basket and hit
a hook shot or a short turnaround or anything at
at a level that is impervious to variants.
Speaker 3 (22:47):
They are inherently.
Speaker 2 (22:49):
Vulnerable to variants, and that is the part that kind
of brings that low floor into the equation. And so
that just kind of makes them vulnerable as a defending champion.
Here on the Knicks fronts basically basically been the quality
of their defense that has impressed me. They did not
defend very well in Game three, but they've had extended
stretches between the Piston series and this series where they've
(23:12):
shown some really high level defense. Jalen Brunson in particular,
I think is having one of his better defensive postseasons.
Kats still struggling, but overall their defense has been sturdier
than I expected it to be in this series, and
so I think we deserve the Knicks deserved to get
some credit on that end of the floor. Denver OKC,
(23:33):
I feel like both of the Western Conference series, I've
had pretty good feel for this series. I've been pretty
much on top of I said before the series that
I picked OKCE in seven. I said that Denver would
legitimately threaten them with their size. I thought it was
a favorable matchup and that they would have a legitimate
chance to win. And they did have their legitimate chance
to win. It was yesterday. It was in the fourth
(23:55):
quarter when they were up eight on a Peyton Watson
hook shot with about eleven and a half minutes left
that put them in commanding position to take a three
to one lead in the series, and their best player
could make a shot, and that really was the series.
Speaker 3 (24:09):
To me.
Speaker 2 (24:09):
If Nikola Jokic played like the guy that he was
capable of being the best player in the world as
a shot maker on the offensive side of the ball,
I think Denver's up three to one and wins this series.
He wasn't credit Okac's defense too. We went over it
last night. It's the specific dynamic of having a sizable
(24:30):
center in Isaiah Hartenstein that can be on the ball
while also having a center that can protect the rim behind. Essentially,
we've seen teams put their four man on Jokich and
put a rim protector behind him, but that fore man
is not big enough to handle Jokic. Only Minnesota and
Oklahoma City have shown the ability to put two fives
on the floor, and the idea of having a legitimate
(24:51):
five on Jokic while also having a Rudy Gobert or
chet holmgrin behind him forces him to make over the
top shots. In the Minnesota series, Jokis was actually able
to make over the top shots and so the games
were more competitive. They had better chances to win. But
in this series, Yokich has had a nightmare time making
(25:13):
anything outside of like three feet in front of the rim,
and so as a result of that, they just haven't
been able to generate enough offense to keep this series
within reach for them. So it looks like at this
point if I had to guess what will happen. If
I had a guess right now, I actually think okay
C's gonna win this thing in six. The main reason
(25:34):
why is I think that we're gonna see I think
that we're gonna see Denver get their butt kicked in
game five. I think Okaye's gonna get them pretty good.
And then it's I feel like that Game six at home.
A big part of it is belief. You need your
guys to actually feel like they have a real chance
to go back on the road and win a game seven,
and I think that they'd have a pretty small chance
(25:56):
to win Game seven. So I wouldn't be the least
bit surprised if we actually saw Denver lose this series
in six, drop Game five up in Oklahoma City and
end up losing back at home. I wanted to pull
these these shot making numbers because I think these are fascinating.
This is from the last three games. Jokich is four
for fifteen on above the break threes, that's twenty six
(26:19):
point seven percent. He's zero for two on corner threes,
mid range jump shots. This is an area where he's
usually been really efficient. He's just five for fifteen from
the field. That's just thirty three percent in the paint,
non restricted area. So these are like the floaters and
the touch shots. These are shots that Jokic has routinely
in his career hit sixty five sixty five, seventy percent
(26:42):
of He's just seven for seventeen in the last three games.
That's forty one point two percent. And then in the
restricted area, a place where he's typically north of seventy percent,
He's just five for nine in the last three games,
which is just fifty five point six percent. So Jokicic
has just really really struggled with his shot making, and
I just don't think he's in like, I think he's
(27:03):
just kind of missed an opportunity to steal this series.
So on the Denver front, I do think their championship
pedigree has shown their experience, their willingness to execute down
the stretch, of games. Them turning what has been basically
a dominant Oklahoma City performance for four games into two
wins is actually super impressive, and it led Jackson and
(27:23):
I when we were talking last night, to kind of
acknowledge that Denver's probably the best team since Kevin Durant
left the Warriors, either them or Boston. But I have
a lot of respect for Denver and what I've seen
to this point, but I think they lost their chance losing.
Speaker 3 (27:37):
That game last night.
Speaker 2 (27:38):
On the Oklahoma City front, I feel like I've been
spot on with these guys. I feel like they have
this clear championship ceiling, but they have obvious vulnerabilities in
terms of their week side catch and shoot players going
very cold this time. In this case Lou Dordan particular,
Ja Dubbs struggling to knock down shots. Chet Holm, We're
struggling to knockdown shots. There was actually the bench guys
who came in and saved them yesterday. But also just
(28:01):
the overall like kind of like lack of perimeter size
has been on display in a few cases these and
how when the offense bogs down, it basically just turns
into Shay and j dubb just taking one on one,
you know, taking turns at the top of the key,
attacking guys one on one, and how their offense can
kind of bog down in that way. And so they
kind of are in similar way to what we were
(28:23):
talking about with Boston, a very high ceiling, low floor
type of team, and so what that always manifested like
from me with Oklahoma City coming into the postseason, I
said they were the second most likely team to win
the championship. When I look at them moving forward, I
look at them as a team that I wouldn't be
surprised if they hoisted the trophy. I also wouldn't be
surprised if they ended up losing in this round or
(28:44):
next round. They are a team that is very beatable
in my opinion, while also obviously having that championship ceiling,
and I think that that's been revealed in this series.
And then lastly, Minnesota Golden State. I also feel like
I've been pretty on top of this one. I feel
like if Steph was healthy, I think the Years would
have won this series. And even without him, I think
we've seen some of Golden State's advantages show up in
(29:06):
big ways in terms of just how good their defense
is and how their ball in player movement can confuse
Minnesota's defense at times. Now, what I think will happen
at this point, Golden State has their chance. They have
a you know, a chance to win tonight and tie
the series. They have the chance to potentially get step
back in Game six, but I would view it as
(29:27):
a substantially lower chance than like the Nick Celtic situation
that we talked about, Like, I view it as less
than fifty percent that Golden State wins tonight, and if
they were to win that game, a less than fifty
percent chance of being able to win two more games
before the end of the series. And so I would
be shocked at this point if Minnesota didn't win. I'd
go as far as to say, if Minnesota won tonight,
(29:48):
I wouldn't even try to bring Steph back at any
point in the series. So I do think Minnesota will.
Speaker 3 (29:53):
End up winning. Now, what have we learned about the
two teams? Golden State?
Speaker 2 (29:56):
I think they've shown that they have a legitimate championship
level defense, and with that, in combination with how good
Steph has shown himself to be in this postseason run
the fit with Jimmy, I think They've proven that they're
worth investing in, and so I think that we'll see
a more aggressive trade approach over the course of the
summer with Golden State to try to bring in more talent,
identifying that there's a legitimate chance to win a championship here.
(30:19):
I think that that is a big like, you know,
if you're looking for a silver lining after what would
be a super depressing finish to the season, like Golden
State trades for Jimmy Butler, kick everybody's butt down the
stretch of the regular season, beat the Houston Rockets, steal
game one against Minnesota.
Speaker 3 (30:36):
You're in great shape.
Speaker 2 (30:38):
Steph Hursus Hammy obviously a huge bummer, But I think
they've proven that they have a legitimate championship ceiling that
is worth investing in, and so that is a silver
lining as you head into next season and then Minnesota.
I just think they're vulnerable to certain types of matchups.
I think it'll be interesting to see Oklahoma City doesn't
have the ball in player movement that Golden State does,
so it'll be a little bit easier for their defense
(30:58):
to handle. And I do think that they'll have extended
stretches of success against Oklahoma City's defense or excuse me,
against Oklahoma City's offense with their defense, but when they
have the ball, I think Oklahoma City is an even
better defense. And I think Golden State is a better
defense for this type of matchup in terms of the
(31:20):
way they could confuse Minnesota. But I think Oklahoma City
is a more talented defense in terms of just the
level of athleticism in rim protection they had, and so
I think they will equally flummix Minnesota in different ways,
less so with confusing them, more so with just the
athletic traits that they put on the floor. And I
(31:41):
think Minnesota is going to really struggle to score in
that matchup. And so with Minnesota, it's it's very matchup dependent.
If they get Denver, Denver beats Okay, see, I absolutely
think they could win that series, they have a great
chance to then go to the finals. And so I
think Minnesota is a very good team that is very
matchup dependent in terms of what they can produce on
a series by series basis. All right, guys, that's all
(32:03):
I have for this morning. Is always a sincerely appreciate
you guys for supporting me and supporting the show. Colin
ended up rescheduling from last night, so we'll still have
a calling episode and we'll just be out later tonight.
We're recording it, i think after the Draft lottery, and
then I'm still planning on going live on YouTube after
the final buzzer of Warriors Wolves as well as playback
after that, so we will see you guys later tonight.
Speaker 3 (32:24):
What's up guys.
Speaker 2 (32:25):
As always, I appreciate you for listening to and supporting
OOPS tonight. It would actually be really helpful for us
if you guys would take a second and leave a
rating and a review. As always, I appreciate you guys
supporting us, but if you could take a minute to
do that, I really appreciate it.
Speaker 1 (32:41):
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Speaker 3 (01:45):
Slash audio. All right, welcome to Hoops tonight.
Speaker 2 (01:58):
You're at the volume heavy Monday, everybody of bald You
guys had a great weekend.
Speaker 3 (02:02):
Got a jampacks show for you guys.
Speaker 2 (02:03):
Guys. This morning, we're going to be reacting to the
Indiana Pacers beat down of the Cleveland Cavaliers last night.
I was trying to think of a way to express it.
Here's the best way I could express what happened to
the Calves last night. They outscored the Pacers seventy to
forty nine in the second half and lost by twenty
with one of the most destructive performances I've seen in
my time as a basketball fan, as the Pacers beat
(02:26):
up on the Caves to take a three to one
lead in that series. We'll be breaking down that game
from the perspective of both teams. Then after that, we're
about halfway through the second round at this point, and
I want to take some time just to zoom out
and look at all four series, and I want to
talk about, like where I'm at with all those series
at this point, what I think will happen moving forward,
and what I've learned about the teams involved with those series.
(02:48):
So we'll briefly touch on all four series at the
tail end of the show. You guys are the joke
before we get started. Subscribed to the Hoops Tonight YouTube channels.
Who don't miss any more of our videos. Follow me
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(03:09):
but not least, keep dropping mailbag questions in the YouTube
comments so we keep hitting them throughout the remainder of
the postseason. All right, let's talk some basketball. So we
talked after Game one. If you remember about how that
game was an awesome introduction for any casual fan who
doesn't really know what the Pacers do. It was an
opportunity for them to learn about Pacers basketball and what
(03:31):
it looks like. And yet somehow last night put even
that performance to shame. It was a complete two way
dominance in the first half that left absolutely no chance
for recovery, as the Pacers outscore the Cavs eighty to
thirty nine in the first half, making it so that
even though they got blown out in the second half,
(03:54):
they still ended up winning by twenty. They dominated literally
every single facet of the game. I want to start
with their defense. They completely flummixed the Calves offense with
relentless ball pressure picking up before any any guard had
a chance to like get ahead of steam going up
the court, they're running into a pacer that was flattening
them out and getting rid of any of that pace
(04:15):
that they were trying to bring into the front court.
It was affecting everybody, Even Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland
were struggling against the pressure. They were picking up after missus.
They're picking up after makes it completely shut down any
of the transition opportunities that are such an important part
of the Caves offense. The Cavs log just two transition
points total in that first half during that run, and
(04:38):
that again, you're just cutting off the most important part
of that Calves offense. Again, we talked about this before
early in the season when when we were discussing like
the three things that made the Calves a different team
than last year. If you guys remember, it was just
the overall improvement of Darius Garland and Evan Mobley. Both
of them are injured in this series. Darius Garland playing
(04:59):
on a toe that's apparently splinted up so tight that
it relieves pain, but that he can't actually bend the toe.
And then Evan Mobley playing on a bad ankle, and
so you get the two guys that are bringing the
gigantic improvement year over year both banged up. Secondly the
switching and forcing turnovers and thirdly the getting out in
(05:20):
transition and so essentially a little bit of talent influx
with Garland and Mobley, and then they're turning teams over
by switching and playing passing lanes, and they're playing a
ton of transition basketball with a lot of pace moving
the ball around, and so Pacers don't turn the ball over.
They're picking you up and preventing your transition pushes with
ball pressure.
Speaker 3 (05:39):
And the two you.
Speaker 2 (05:41):
Know, talent ads so to speak, for the Cavs this year,
are not anywhere near one hundred percent physically, and that
has just completely flipped this dynamic to becoming a massive problem.
Even Donovan Mitchell struggled, though Donovan Mitchell has killed the
Pacers in this series, and he was just three for
eleven with zero assists and two turnovers in that first
(06:01):
half run for the Pacers. The Pacers dominated the glass,
They out rebounded the Cavs twenty two to fifteen in
the first half, and then they just put on an
offensive clinic a one point fifty seven offensive rating in transition,
a one thirty six offensive rating in the half court,
which is astronomical. They generated fourteen catch and shoot jump
shots and made ten of them. That's two point one
(06:25):
four points per shot. They hammered post mismatches right away
to start the game. Like one of the first possessions,
it's Aaron Nee Smith is posting up Darius Garland and
they throw it to him. He draws a double team
swing swing, wide open three. They're posting Siakam against Max Strus,
They're posting Miles Turner against a bunch of the Cleveland guards,
(06:46):
and they Cleveland just didn't have the ability to prevent
those mismatches from burning them. One of the things that
Indiana does really well is they throw the skip pass,
and when you throw the skip pass, that's what burns
a typical post front bracket coverage. So we talked about
this coverage a lot with like the Miami Heat, because
they post, they front the post all the time, but
(07:07):
when you try to front the post, there's a passing
angle over the top. You try to close that window
by having a guy come from the weak side and
basically bracket on the other side of the post player.
But that's what opens up the skip pass, and the
Calves are so paranoid about the skip pass that that
guy's staying home, and so there's just a huge passing
window to float the ball over the top to these
(07:28):
against these post fronts, and the Pacers just made really
good post entry passes all night and just continually burned
the Calves every single time they switched ball screens.
Speaker 3 (07:37):
They lit up the zone.
Speaker 2 (07:38):
We talked after game two about how the Pacers kind
of started to figure out the zone in the second half. Well,
they did really well against it again tonight. They faced
it eight times in the first half and scored on
six of those possessions. Every which way they beat it
by flashing middle, getting the ball to Siakam and shooters
relocating off of it. They generated a wide open three
(07:59):
frame nemhard that way. They beat it with the skip
pass TJ McConnell on the right wing. The low man
on the left side was sunk all the way into
the paint. Rifles will skip past to Thomas Bryant, who
it's a mildly contested three out of the left corner.
They beat it by screening the top man ball screen
at the top Obi top en rolls out of it,
ball in the pocket, left handed layup. Similar type of
(08:20):
thing Tyre's Halliburton with Thomas Bryant. Thomas Bryant rolls. When
he rolls, the low man has to grab him. Tyree
swings the ball. It gets skipped all the way back
to the corner because the guy who would be responsible
for the corner is now guarding Thomas Bryant on the roll.
Another wide open three on the weak side that goes in.
They beat it with the flair screen. The three that
Tyre's Halliburton hit that was like twenty seven to twenty
(08:41):
eight feet off of the right wing. All that was
is they flare screen the top man. Max Struce was
the other top man, but he was sunk into the
paint covering a flasher skip over the top wide open
three for Tyre's Halliburton, it goes in. The Pacers basically
just ran their same man demand principles that they always
run against the zone and it worked extremely well as
they basically just played the calves out of that zone.
(09:05):
I look at the Indiana Pacers like a machine, and
that machine was operating at peak efficiency on both ends
of the floor last night, and it just chewed up
and spit out the Caves and they had absolutely no chance.
When the Pacers are playing like that, you just get
to lose. And it's an interesting dynamic to keep in
mind for the Conference finals. There's just a higher level
(09:27):
that they can get to on both ends of the
floor this year, as all of their players have made
moderate improvements, even their star Tyree Saliburton, just because he's
healthier than he was in years past. So before we
get to the Calves, I just want to go into
our next segment because I think this will be a
good kind of format for us to touch base on
the series kind of zooming out as well as what
(09:47):
the Calves are going through in terms of the slander
that they're catching all over the NBA world today. So again,
what I'm gonna do is I'm gonna go through all
four series and we'll start with Pacers Calves. But I
want to just talk with where I'm at with the
series in terms of just what I expect moving forward,
and then I want to talk about what we've learned
about the teams involved, So Pacers, Calves. Where am I
at at this point? It's certainly not over. We know
(10:10):
the Calves can beat the Pacers at home, they basically
did in Game two, they just tricked it off. And
we know that the Calves can beat the Pacers in Indy.
They just did it in Game three they blow them out.
But they're just operating so far below their ceiling right
now that I view it as pretty unlikely. They're completely
shook by just the dynamic at play and they're losing
confidence and a lot of specific parts of their roster,
(10:32):
like Ty Jerome came in and immediately started turning the
ball over again.
Speaker 3 (10:36):
It's I've.
Speaker 2 (10:38):
As big of a drop off from regular season performance
to playoff performance in this series that I can remember
from a player, Like he was the best guard that
I watched off the bench in the NBA this year.
I actually thought he was better than Peyton Prichard, and
Peyton Richard was amazing in Madison Square Garden in Game
three and has been a deeply useful player for the
for the Celtics, and Ti Jerome has been like has
(11:01):
literally decomposed in this series. It's absolutely wild DeAndre Hunter
came in and was missing jumpers so bad wide left
that you could literally tell on the broadcast as the
ball was coming out of his hands that it was
going to be off to the left, Like he was
just completely out of sorts with his jump shot. Jared
Allen was like brutally bad on defense in this game,
(11:23):
like consistently out of position, just like misreading plays, like
overplaying a like a random pressure of a high post
catch from like Thomas Bryant that ends up giving up
a layup, or jumping onto the wrong side of a
screen with Dean Wade and giving up a driving lane
going to the opposite side of the screen like he
was bad in this game. Garland looks like a shell
(11:44):
of himself. And then again, this was the first game
where they held Donovan Mitchell in check. So like, I
even though I think we all know the Cavs can
win this series, Like it's really simple. You go home
and you beat the Pacers. Go and beat the Pacers
at home, you're certainly capable of it. You go back
to Indy and you beat them like you did in
game three, and then you have Game seven at home
where anything can happen. I just don't think the Calves
(12:04):
are playing like the Calves right now. If you really
zoom out of this series, the only game where they
really looked like the Calves was Game three, and in
all three of the other games, even Game two when
they won, it was like they were kind of hanging
on for dear life for the most part and getting
the shit kicked out of them in most of the
moments of the series. And so I'm guessing the Pacers
end up closing this out in six. I bet they
(12:26):
go up to Cleveland drop Game five, and then come
home and blow out the Calves to win in Game six.
But certainly the Calves have a chance, But at this
point I would be surprised if the Pacers didn't win.
Speaker 3 (12:37):
Now what have I learned?
Speaker 2 (12:40):
Honestly, the series hasn't gone that much differently than I expected.
I picked the Calves in six. I specifically said to
Carter in our series preview that I thought Indiana was
a very similar team to Cleveland that would cause them
lots of issues in the series, and I expected them
to win multiple games. What has happened is the Racers
stole a game they should have lost. They were down
(13:02):
seven with forty seconds left in Game two and stole
that game. And then the Calves are also pretty substantially
beat up by injuries, and so those two things have
been enough to flip the outcome to where Indiana looks
like the better team by a reasonable chunk, similar to
what I expected from the Calves before the series. That said,
I want to be clear, even though that dynamic has flipped,
(13:23):
I've also been super impressed by Indy. The way that
their offense and their defense has had this level of
success against a very good Calves team has given me
a lot more optimism that they absolutely can beat a
Boston in the Conference finals. They certainly could beat in
New York. So I viewed the Pacers as a substantial
(13:44):
finals threat now in a way that I didn't see
them last year, because they're in just such a great
offensive groove and they're so connected defensively right now. And
so yeah, like the Pacers have shown themselves to be
the better team at this point. There's just some context
in terms of the Calves operating well below their peak
in terms of some injuries. But credit to Pacers this
(14:06):
is it's equal both ways. Like the Pacers have blown
them out in two of these games, and if you
really kind of zoom out, the Pacers have had a
ton of success that has been related to just how
great the Pacers are. That is separate from some of
the issues that the Calves are having with injuries and
their flow and their confidence and that sort of stuff. So,
like again, like I just want to I just want
(14:28):
to make sure that we give that credit to the
Pacers as well, and that it's.
Speaker 3 (14:31):
Not just a Calves thing.
Speaker 2 (14:34):
On the Calves front, I see a lot of people
burying them today. I've seen a lot of the twenty
fifteen Hawks references getting thrown around. And here's all I'll
say about that. I was a basketball fan during that age.
I remember watching the twenty fifteen Hawks. The twy fifteen
Hawks were a mediocre basketball team that just beat up on.
Speaker 3 (14:54):
The Eastern Conference.
Speaker 2 (14:56):
This Calves team showed an obvious upside and had an
obvious like talent level that they had in terms of
the level Darius Garland was playing at before he got hurt,
the level Donovan Mitchell was playing at all season, the
level Even Mobley was playing out all season. Jared Allen
kind of encroaching on that top seven, top six centers
in the NBA, the level of play they were getting
(15:18):
from ty Jrome off the bench, the elite catch and
shoot play down the roster. This is a more talented,
more dynamic team by a substantial margin than the twenty
fifteen Hawks. They run into a very hot, very good
Indiana Pacers team, and they're way below their peak efficiency
because Darius Garland is like the guy that drives their offense. Darius,
(15:45):
Like I talked about this all year. I like Donovan Mitchell,
I really do. I think he's a great player, but
I've talked about it throughout the year that I view
Darius Garland as like their most important offensive player because
he's the guy that the dynamic I kept talking about
all season was just his ability to get dribble penetration.
He gets dribble penetration on everyone, and that just instantly
compromises your defense from like the start of the shot
(16:07):
clock and you're just chasing your tail the rest of
the possession because Darius Garland is so damn fast that
he can get to wherever he wants to on the floor.
Darius Garland with a bad toe can't. Like there was
a possession against TJ. McConnell in the first half where
he's just trying to dribble around him on the left wing,
and like TJ, looks faster than him, and like TJ
is a very good athlete, TJ is like one of
(16:28):
the most underrated dribble penetration guys in the league. But
Darius is faster than him, and Darius would look slower
than him in that matchup on the left wing. And
so like Darius Garland is like quote unquote the head
of the Snake for their offense in terms of their
ability to get the defense and rotation. Donovan Mitchell is
a capable passer who has grown as a passer over
the course of his career, but he is a scorer.
(16:50):
That is what he does, and he has tried to
solve problems in this series by scoring the basketball. Darius
Garland is the guy who greases the wheels of their
offense and gets the ball moving from side to side,
gets the defense into rotation, and so having him be
operating that far below his capability has substantially changed the
(17:10):
way the Calves play offense from the regular season, even
if you watched that first half, just the level of
involvement from Darius Garland compared to what it would look
like when you'd watch the Calves back in like January, December, February,
it's just so different, missing that bit of explosion from
Darius Garland. So like, here's the thing. Were the Calves
as good as the thunder No? Were the Calves as
(17:33):
good as the Celtics.
Speaker 3 (17:35):
No.
Speaker 2 (17:36):
Coming into the playoffs, I ranked them as the fourth
most likely team to win the championship. So I wasn't
quite as high on the Calves as everyone else was.
That said, after that Heat series, their offense was clicking
at such a level that I did view them as
a legitimate threat, a puncher's chance threat to beat the
Boston Celtics, so much so that I was like, at
(17:56):
least considering the idea that I would potentially pay them
in a Celtic series. But then Darius Garland gets hurt.
They're never able to recapture that offensive verb that they
had before the Darius Garland injury, and now it just
looks like they're dead in the water. And so again
I think it's a little bit of both. Are they
(18:16):
a little bit overrated from what they looked like as
a sixty four win regular season team. Yes, are they
the twenty fifteen Hawks? No, they're They're certainly better than that.
That's kind of how I felt about the Calves after
tonight and the last night, and honestly, like, as far
as the future holds for the Calves, like Darius Garland
(18:37):
has had perpetual injury issues throughout his career, and it's
just something to keep in mind that he finally has
this super healthy season where he looks like an All
NBA caliber guard and then he just breaks down at
the tail end of the season. It's just super unfortunate.
Speaker 1 (18:52):
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Speaker 3 (19:26):
All Right, Boston, New York? Where am I at? With
the series? Right? Now, the Knicks.
Speaker 2 (19:33):
Only needed to win one game at Madison Square Garden
to put themselves in great spot to win the series.
So even though they lost Game three, it's certainly not
over for them. They have a very good chance to
win Game four tonight. So the way I would express
their chances is like this. I think tonight they have
about a coin flip chance to beat Boston. If Boston
goes in and doesn't shoot the ball as well, it'll
(19:53):
be another rockfight, and in a rock fight, if they
can keep things close enough, Jalen Brunson has the ability
to close things late, So call it about a coin
flip chance. If they win that game, they're up three
to one, and the next three games you're in Boston
for Game five, back to MSG for Game six, and
then in Boston for Game seven. I think they have
about a coin flip chance to win one of those
(20:16):
next three games, because even an MSG game in game six,
if it's three to two, that's an elimination game. You're
going to get a better effort from Boston. Then you'll
even get tonight necessarily, right, So I viewed about a
fifty percent chance to win a win tonight and about
a fifty percent chance to win one of the following
three games if they win tonight. So a basic, you know,
(20:38):
kind of a transitive way to look at it is
fifty percent, fifty percent is twenty five percent. So I
look at it like seventy five twenty five in favor
of Boston to win the series at this point, moving forward,
now with each team, what have we learned With the Celtics.
I said coming into the postseason that I viewed them
as the best team available among all the sixteen teams
(21:01):
because of their combination of two way talent. They just
have the best assortment of players that can successfully play
on both ends of the floor in the playoffs, combined
with the veteran experience necessary to be comfortable and to
make adjustments and to do all the things that you
to handle all the things that you encounter typically in
the postseason. I think that through this series that ceiling
(21:23):
has been expressed. I should say through this postseason to
this point, they've shown their ceiling. Game three against New
York was a perfect example of it. I still believe
in that ceiling. However, Boston has demonstrated that they're just
a little bit more rickety, a little bit more prone
to showing their floor than we originally thought, to the
(21:47):
point where they dropped a very very important Game two
at home showing that floor. So like, while I feel
kind of still the same way about the Boston Celtics
and what they can reach in terms of their top end,
I kind of view their range of potential outcomes as lower.
So like I'm at this point, like I wouldn't be
(22:07):
surprised that they won the title, but I also wouldn't
be surprised that they lost in this round. And that
just kind of shows the wide range of outcomes. And
the main thing that is really manifested in terms of
the basketball side of it is they don't have an
audible when their drive and kick generate quality three's offense
doesn't work. They don't have offensive versatility in terms of
(22:30):
finding a legit like fifty plus percent guy who can
get down ten feet inside of the basket and hit
a hook shot or a short turnaround or anything at
at a level that is impervious to variants.
Speaker 3 (22:47):
They are inherently.
Speaker 2 (22:49):
Vulnerable to variants, and that is the part that kind
of brings that low floor into the equation. And so
that just kind of makes them vulnerable as a defending champion.
Here on the Knicks fronts basically basically been the quality
of their defense that has impressed me. They did not
defend very well in Game three, but they've had extended
stretches between the Piston series and this series where they've
(23:12):
shown some really high level defense. Jalen Brunson in particular,
I think is having one of his better defensive postseasons.
Kats still struggling, but overall their defense has been sturdier
than I expected it to be in this series, and
so I think we deserve the Knicks deserved to get
some credit on that end of the floor. Denver OKC,
(23:33):
I feel like both of the Western Conference series, I've
had pretty good feel for this series. I've been pretty
much on top of I said before the series that
I picked OKCE in seven. I said that Denver would
legitimately threaten them with their size. I thought it was
a favorable matchup and that they would have a legitimate
chance to win. And they did have their legitimate chance
to win. It was yesterday. It was in the fourth
(23:55):
quarter when they were up eight on a Peyton Watson
hook shot with about eleven and a half minutes left
that put them in commanding position to take a three
to one lead in the series, and their best player
could make a shot, and that really was the series.
Speaker 3 (24:09):
To me.
Speaker 2 (24:09):
If Nikola Jokic played like the guy that he was
capable of being the best player in the world as
a shot maker on the offensive side of the ball,
I think Denver's up three to one and wins this series.
He wasn't credit Okac's defense too. We went over it
last night. It's the specific dynamic of having a sizable
(24:30):
center in Isaiah Hartenstein that can be on the ball
while also having a center that can protect the rim behind. Essentially,
we've seen teams put their four man on Jokich and
put a rim protector behind him, but that fore man
is not big enough to handle Jokic. Only Minnesota and
Oklahoma City have shown the ability to put two fives
on the floor, and the idea of having a legitimate
(24:51):
five on Jokic while also having a Rudy Gobert or
chet holmgrin behind him forces him to make over the
top shots. In the Minnesota series, Jokis was actually able
to make over the top shots and so the games
were more competitive. They had better chances to win. But
in this series, Yokich has had a nightmare time making
(25:13):
anything outside of like three feet in front of the rim,
and so as a result of that, they just haven't
been able to generate enough offense to keep this series
within reach for them. So it looks like at this
point if I had to guess what will happen. If
I had a guess right now, I actually think okay
C's gonna win this thing in six. The main reason
(25:34):
why is I think that we're gonna see I think
that we're gonna see Denver get their butt kicked in
game five. I think Okaye's gonna get them pretty good.
And then it's I feel like that Game six at home.
A big part of it is belief. You need your
guys to actually feel like they have a real chance
to go back on the road and win a game seven,
and I think that they'd have a pretty small chance
(25:56):
to win Game seven. So I wouldn't be the least
bit surprised if we actually saw Denver lose this series
in six, drop Game five up in Oklahoma City and
end up losing back at home. I wanted to pull
these these shot making numbers because I think these are fascinating.
This is from the last three games. Jokich is four
for fifteen on above the break threes, that's twenty six
(26:19):
point seven percent. He's zero for two on corner threes,
mid range jump shots. This is an area where he's
usually been really efficient. He's just five for fifteen from
the field. That's just thirty three percent in the paint,
non restricted area. So these are like the floaters and
the touch shots. These are shots that Jokic has routinely
in his career hit sixty five sixty five, seventy percent
(26:42):
of He's just seven for seventeen in the last three games.
That's forty one point two percent. And then in the
restricted area, a place where he's typically north of seventy percent,
He's just five for nine in the last three games,
which is just fifty five point six percent. So Jokicic
has just really really struggled with his shot making, and
I just don't think he's in like, I think he's
(27:03):
just kind of missed an opportunity to steal this series.
So on the Denver front, I do think their championship
pedigree has shown their experience, their willingness to execute down
the stretch, of games. Them turning what has been basically
a dominant Oklahoma City performance for four games into two
wins is actually super impressive, and it led Jackson and
(27:23):
I when we were talking last night, to kind of
acknowledge that Denver's probably the best team since Kevin Durant
left the Warriors, either them or Boston. But I have
a lot of respect for Denver and what I've seen
to this point, but I think they lost their chance losing.
Speaker 3 (27:37):
That game last night.
Speaker 2 (27:38):
On the Oklahoma City front, I feel like I've been
spot on with these guys. I feel like they have
this clear championship ceiling, but they have obvious vulnerabilities in
terms of their week side catch and shoot players going
very cold this time. In this case Lou Dordan particular,
Ja Dubbs struggling to knock down shots. Chet Holm, We're
struggling to knockdown shots. There was actually the bench guys
who came in and saved them yesterday. But also just
(28:01):
the overall like kind of like lack of perimeter size
has been on display in a few cases these and
how when the offense bogs down, it basically just turns
into Shay and j dubb just taking one on one,
you know, taking turns at the top of the key,
attacking guys one on one, and how their offense can
kind of bog down in that way. And so they
kind of are in similar way to what we were
(28:23):
talking about with Boston, a very high ceiling, low floor
type of team, and so what that always manifested like
from me with Oklahoma City coming into the postseason, I
said they were the second most likely team to win
the championship. When I look at them moving forward, I
look at them as a team that I wouldn't be
surprised if they hoisted the trophy. I also wouldn't be
surprised if they ended up losing in this round or
(28:44):
next round. They are a team that is very beatable
in my opinion, while also obviously having that championship ceiling,
and I think that that's been revealed in this series.
And then lastly, Minnesota Golden State. I also feel like
I've been pretty on top of this one. I feel
like if Steph was healthy, I think the Years would
have won this series. And even without him, I think
we've seen some of Golden State's advantages show up in
(29:06):
big ways in terms of just how good their defense
is and how their ball in player movement can confuse
Minnesota's defense at times. Now, what I think will happen
at this point, Golden State has their chance. They have
a you know, a chance to win tonight and tie
the series. They have the chance to potentially get step
back in Game six, but I would view it as
(29:27):
a substantially lower chance than like the Nick Celtic situation
that we talked about, Like, I view it as less
than fifty percent that Golden State wins tonight, and if
they were to win that game, a less than fifty
percent chance of being able to win two more games
before the end of the series. And so I would
be shocked at this point if Minnesota didn't win. I'd
go as far as to say, if Minnesota won tonight,
(29:48):
I wouldn't even try to bring Steph back at any
point in the series. So I do think Minnesota will.
Speaker 3 (29:53):
End up winning. Now, what have we learned about the
two teams? Golden State?
Speaker 2 (29:56):
I think they've shown that they have a legitimate championship
level defense, and with that, in combination with how good
Steph has shown himself to be in this postseason run
the fit with Jimmy, I think They've proven that they're
worth investing in, and so I think that we'll see
a more aggressive trade approach over the course of the
summer with Golden State to try to bring in more talent,
identifying that there's a legitimate chance to win a championship here.
(30:19):
I think that that is a big like, you know,
if you're looking for a silver lining after what would
be a super depressing finish to the season, like Golden
State trades for Jimmy Butler, kick everybody's butt down the
stretch of the regular season, beat the Houston Rockets, steal
game one against Minnesota.
Speaker 3 (30:36):
You're in great shape.
Speaker 2 (30:38):
Steph Hursus Hammy obviously a huge bummer, But I think
they've proven that they have a legitimate championship ceiling that
is worth investing in, and so that is a silver
lining as you head into next season and then Minnesota.
I just think they're vulnerable to certain types of matchups.
I think it'll be interesting to see Oklahoma City doesn't
have the ball in player movement that Golden State does,
so it'll be a little bit easier for their defense
(30:58):
to handle. And I do think that they'll have extended
stretches of success against Oklahoma City's defense or excuse me,
against Oklahoma City's offense with their defense, but when they
have the ball, I think Oklahoma City is an even
better defense. And I think Golden State is a better
defense for this type of matchup in terms of the
(31:20):
way they could confuse Minnesota. But I think Oklahoma City
is a more talented defense in terms of just the
level of athleticism in rim protection they had, and so
I think they will equally flummix Minnesota in different ways,
less so with confusing them, more so with just the
athletic traits that they put on the floor. And I
(31:41):
think Minnesota is going to really struggle to score in
that matchup. And so with Minnesota, it's it's very matchup dependent.
If they get Denver, Denver beats Okay, see, I absolutely
think they could win that series, they have a great
chance to then go to the finals. And so I
think Minnesota is a very good team that is very
matchup dependent in terms of what they can produce on
a series by series basis. All right, guys, that's all
(32:03):
I have for this morning. Is always a sincerely appreciate
you guys for supporting me and supporting the show. Colin
ended up rescheduling from last night, so we'll still have
a calling episode and we'll just be out later tonight.
We're recording it, i think after the Draft lottery, and
then I'm still planning on going live on YouTube after
the final buzzer of Warriors Wolves as well as playback
after that, so we will see you guys later tonight.
Speaker 3 (32:24):
What's up guys.
Speaker 2 (32:25):
As always, I appreciate you for listening to and supporting
OOPS tonight. It would actually be really helpful for us
if you guys would take a second and leave a
rating and a review. As always, I appreciate you guys
supporting us, but if you could take a minute to
do that, I really appreciate it.
Speaker 1 (32:41):
The volume
Host
Jason Timpf
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