Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
The volume.
Speaker 2 (00:15):
All right, Well, goo to hoops tonight, you're at the
volume heavy Monday, everybody. Oh ball, If you guys had
a great weekend. I'm back in my Tucson studio. We
booked a couple of vacations this summer. We're going to
Alaska in early August and then we're doing the Pacific
Northwest and September, which we've done a few years in
a row now. We love it up there, but we
booked all of the flights out of Tucson, and we
have three dogs, so we've been relying on some help
(00:37):
to care for the.
Speaker 1 (00:37):
Dogs when we travel.
Speaker 2 (00:38):
So I'm gonna be like kind of hopping back and
forth between the Tucson studio and the Denver studio over
the course of August in early September, but then I'll
officially be a full timer up there when we get
into September. We are starting our player rankings today. The
off season's basically done. We're waiting around on some warrior
stuff and when that happens, we'll obviously react when the
time comes. But it is the dead season of the NBA,
(01:01):
and so this is a great time. This is the
fourth year in a row and we have taken a
dive into player rankings. We do the top twenty five
players in the NBA. We go into extensive detail on
each player, looking back at their last season, their strengths
and weaknesses, what we can expect from them in the
coming season. We get into rationale is why guys are
(01:22):
ranked where they're ranked. We have a ton of fun
with it. Over the course of the summer. We don't
have Olympic basketball this year, is a little bit of
a break. We might get a little bit of a
EuroBasket as we get into late August, which I'm particularly
excited about, especially on the heels of that Men's Health
magazine article this morning talking about Luka doncis getting into
great shape. I'm gonna have some more thoughts about that
(01:43):
when we talk about Luca's allegedly pending extension, which we
will get to at some point or over the course
of the next week. But it's a pretty dead summer,
so lots of time for us to get into our
player rankings today. What I'm going to do is I'm
going to dive into our rules so that everyone understands
the criteria we use. It's something that is obviously an
inexact science. It is like impossible to scientifically rank all
(02:07):
of the players in the NBA because there's no such
thing as a metric that accurately captures a basketball players impact,
and so there's a lot of subjectivity involved. But we
just do the best we can, and we try to
stick to a set of rules, and so I'm gonna
go over the specific rules that we use. I use
different rules each of the first three seasons. Last year,
(02:28):
I kind of settled on a specific format that I
really like, and so for the first time, we're actually
repeating that format coming into this year's rankings. I'm going
to talk a little bit about some of the guys
that didn't make the cut this year and why some
specific guys who dropped out, why they dropped out, who
my final cuts were. So we're gonna do a bunch
of that kind of stuff right off of the top,
(02:48):
and then we're gonna get into the first two players
on the list today, so number twenty five and number
twenty four, and then on Wednesday this week, we're gonna
get into the next four players on the list, so
six players total in the first couple of days of
this week. You guys know, the jop before we get started.
To subscribe to the Hoops Tonight YouTube channel so you
don't miss any more of our videos. Follow me on
Twitter at underscore jcnlt so you guys don't miss sho announcements.
(03:10):
Don't forget about a podcast fee where you get your
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leave a rating and a review on that front. Jackson's
doing great work on our social media feeds on Twitter, Instagram,
Facebook and TikTok. Make sure you guys follow us over there.
In the last but not least, keep dropping mail bag
questions in the YouTube comments. So we're gonna change the
way we do our mail bags over the course of
the next couple of months. I want to try to
(03:30):
gear them towards the player rankings as much as possible.
That doesn't mean you can't ask any other mail back questions.
You guys can ask whatever you want. But one of
the things that's fun about this is there is a
lot of debate. You can argue, we're gonna talk about
it with our tiers, but with the way these guys
line up in tiers, I don't see much of a
gap between player five and player fourteen on this list,
(03:51):
or player fifteen and the fortieth guy that didn't make
the list. I don't see huge gaps there. You can
argue players way up and down this list because how
close these players are and how different they are in
their archetypes and their specific value in different parts of
the game of basketball. This is up for debate, right,
So what I want you guys to do is, if
(04:11):
you have a specific ranking that you disagree with, a
player you think is underrated, a player you think is overrated,
whatever it is in your mail bag question, make a
quick elevator pitch as brief as possible, but make a
basketball case for why you disagree with the player and
where he's ranked on this list, And in our Friday
mail bags, we'll just debate. I'll read out your guys'
(04:33):
basketball case for why you feel differently, I'll explain whether
or not I agree with something you're saying or I disagree.
We'll kind of have those Friday mail bags be more
geared towards debating these rankings. So make sure you guys
drop your questions again under the full episodes right mail
bag with a colon, explain why you disagree and we'll
get to them in those Friday mail bags.
Speaker 1 (04:52):
All right, let's talk some basketball.
Speaker 2 (04:56):
So, like I mentioned earlier, we've treaked the criteria each
of the first three years, but I really like the
criteria we lose last year, so we're gonna run it
back this year. Our criteria is actually very simple. Who
is the best player to have on your team from
the start of this coming training camp, so October twenty
twenty five through the end of this year's coming playoff
(05:19):
run in June of twenty twenty six. That's it. That's
the criteria. Now, it implies several things, which we'll get into,
but it's that simple. Who's the best guy to lead
your team from the start of this coming season to
the end of this coming season. So, first of all,
we are looking forward, not backward, but we're obviously going
(05:40):
to use the past to inform the future. This is
not a list of just who had the best season
last year. There are guys on this list, even near
the top, who had better seasons than guys that will
rank ahead of them in this list because I expect
that dynamic to flip in this coming season. What else
(06:03):
is valuable availability and night to night regular season impact
is being weighed as a real factor here. Take just
a random couple of players. Take Steph Curry and Anthony Edwards.
If we're playing one single playoff game or one single
playoff series that starts tomorrow and everyone's healthy, I think
(06:23):
Steph's a better player than Anthony Edwards. I just think
he's a better all around basketball player with the better
understanding of how to win in like very very tough
playoff environments. But Anthony Edwards plays seventy nine games every
season like clockwork, and Steph literally just broke down against
him in a second round series because Steph had to
(06:46):
go pedal to the medal for three straight months to
end the season, because this team was trying to claw
their way out of the play in tournament, right, and
because he's thirty seven years old, he's just a little
bit more susceptible to breaking down right than a twenty
three year old is. So when we're comparing those two guys,
it's not just as simple as who is better. It's
(07:09):
a combination of all those factors. Steph and him just
being a better basketball player when he's healthy is going
to weigh in Steph's favor. But Anthony Edwards and his
youthful exuberance and energy and durability is going to weigh
in Anthony Edwards's favor, and all of those factors put
together is going to help place those players on this
(07:31):
particular list. Also, guys like Jason Tatum, Damian Lillard, Tyrese Halliburton,
guys who were all on this list last year, they're
simply not on the list this year because they will
not play, so they do not bring any value between
(07:52):
the start of October twenty twenty five training camp and
the twenty twenty six playoff runt, So they will be
removed from the list for this year, and they will
re enter the list next summer when we're discussing them
as players that are going to play. That's just the
rules of this particular list. It also opens up space
(08:13):
on this list for new guys to enter, well for
guys that used to be on the list to re
enter the list. That's three spots that would typically be
taken up by those guys that other guys will get
to take up. But ultimately, the goal is to win
an NBA championship. So it's not just night to night availability,
it's the combination of everything. Night to night availability leadership,
(08:36):
producing statistically at a high level throughout the season, and
being able to thrive when everything shifts to playoff basketball,
which as we all know, can be so very different,
not just in one or two playoff games, but through
in the end of a playoff series, when teams make
adjustments and start to figure out your strengths and weaknesses,
and the on ball defenders get a little bit more
(08:56):
keyed in to your quirks and start to figure out
how to guard you better.
Speaker 1 (09:00):
Or as you.
Speaker 2 (09:01):
Change from round to round and the circumstances around change,
and it just gets harder for you to succeed the
way you were earlier in that playoff runt. All of
that stuff factors in. That's why I love this criteria.
That's why I'm sticking with it. I think it accurately
represents what the job is, which is to lead a
basketball team from October through June and giving your team
(09:23):
the best possible shot at the trophy. Last note, and
I had to say this last year, and it's just
important for people to understand. In terms of the way
these rankings come together. I have the players separated into
three tiers. There are top tier superstars. These are the
guys who night to night play at the peak of
modern basketball. Consistency is the expectation, it's the norm. Then
(09:47):
the second tier guys, second tier secondary superstars. These are
the guys who are capable on any given night of
reaching the same level of the top guys in the league,
but they struggle to maintain it. Whether it's because they're
too old, or they've dealt with injury concerns over their careers,
or just general youthful inconsistency from young players. You will
(10:09):
see Ky Cunningham on certain nights look like he could
be one of the best players in the world, but
then he's susceptible to inconsistency because he's a young player.
Right Those guys are still every bit as valuable on
singular occasions, but they don't bring the night to night value.
That's our second tier superstars, our third tier stars. These
(10:32):
are guys who are worth the max and near max
contracts that they're on. They bring enough impact to justify
the money, but they probably can't be the best player
on a championship team. They need a lot of support
and they probably need a better player than them in
order to reach the promised Land. Within each of those tiers,
(10:53):
the players are incredibly closely ranked. So for instance, the
guy that I have on fourteen in this list could
very easily be argued as high as five or vice versa,
and everybody in that range can be argued anywhere in
that range. Similarly, for the third tier spots, there are
(11:15):
eleven players between fifteen and twenty five. I considered twenty
six players for those eleven spots, which means there are
fifteen guys who did not make this list that absolutely
have an argument to potentially be as high as fifteen.
John Moran didn't make my list, you could make a
(11:38):
basketball case for him being as high as fifteenth on
this list. So that what I'm trying to say is
I totally understand if you guys disagree with the order.
That's part of the fun of this. That's why it's
a debate. That's why we're doing those mail bags at
the end of the week where I want you guys
to argue so that we can get into it a
little bit. So again, literally, if you'd disagree with anything
(12:01):
that we have in this list, write it in the
mail bag, make an elevator, pitch a quick breakdown of
why you disagree, and we'll get into it. That's the
whole fun of this. It's supposed to be fun. If anything,
this guy's will just this list will give you guys
a better look at the way I see the game
of basketball, just to help you guys understand why I
rank players the way with the way I rank them,
(12:21):
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(14:12):
and I'm gonna explain who the final cuts were, and
again these are in no particular order. John Morant, Zion Williamson,
Julius Randall, Demona Simonis, Alpern, Shangoon, Darius Garland, DeMar Derozen Brandon, Ingram,
Zach Lavine, Franz Wagner, Tyler Harrow, Daron Fox, Tyrese Maxey,
(14:34):
Karl Anthony Towns, and James Harden. Those are the guys
that were in that list of twenty five players that
I considered for the final or twenty six players that
I considered for the final eleven spots. A couple of
specifics that I want to get into, just four specific
guys I want to briefly touch on. First of all,
both the Aaron Fox and Tyrese Maxey were on this
list last year in the twenties range, and they fell off.
(14:57):
Both of them substantially declined as ump shooters and that
ended up limiting their effectiveness. Taron Fox went from having
a pretty good shooting season to being below thirty percent
on catch and shoot jump shots this year. A Tyrese
Maxi catch and shoot jump shot two years ago was
worth one point three to one points down to one
(15:19):
point zero five points in this last season. That's twenty
six points per one hundred catch and shoot jump shots. Worse,
the two things that made these guys clear top twenty
five guys was their combination of elite downhill force with
the jump shot to counter and the jump shot to
play off the ball. And when their jumpers aren't as
(15:39):
dialed in, they're simply not as effective. And so for
those two guys, it was the decline in jump shooting
that dropped them off the list our final two cuts.
As you can imagine, when I started with that forty,
I started pulling guys off, and eventually I got down
to twenty seven out of the twenty five I needed
to grab, or more like if you specifically with that
final tier of eleven, and I was looking at thirteen
(16:02):
players for the final tier of eleven, and I had
to cut two guys. So the final two cuts ended
up being James Harden in Karl Anthony Towns. So on
the one hand, it's important to acknowledge I viewed both
of those guys as top twenty seven players in the NBA,
or above the other thirteen guys that I listed earlier.
(16:23):
But The reason why I cut these two guys was
specific to the playoffs. James Harden, again in his last
two playoff losses this year, in Game five and Game
seven against Denver, didn't even attempt ten shots in either game,
totaled just eighteen points on five for seventeen shooting in
(16:44):
two games combined, two must win games combined. Consistently, in
James Harden's career, when his back is against the wall,
he simply loses his mojo. It's not like he plays
with his usual level of aggression and shots just don't fall,
or he has a couple more turnovers than usual. He
(17:06):
straight up loses everything that makes him James Harden in
those big playoff games at the end of series. And
it's happened so many times over the course of his
career that it's something you literally have to plan for
as an organization. I'm a big believer in James Harden
and his value as a regular season offensive engine. We
(17:27):
discussed this extensively already this summer with regards to the
new contract that he signed. I even think his playoff
struggles are a little bit more complicated. They're kind of
geared towards the tail end of series big moments. He's
had some monster playoff games over the last few years
mixed in with excruciatingly bad, but he's had some awesome
playoff games. He was great in Game six against them,
(17:49):
for example, but those playoff limitations ended up making him
one of the final cuts this year. Karl Anthony Towns,
it's about the downright damaging lack of attention to detail
on anything outside of his typical offensive game. I literally
can't get the image out of my head from Game
(18:09):
six against Indiana of him making poor pop role decisions
like rolling into the lane when there's already multiple players
in the dunker spot, or you know, crashing off the
top of the key, crashing the offensive glass when he
has get back responsibility. He was screaming off the tape
in game six as one of the main reasons why
(18:31):
they got blown off the floor against Indiana in game six,
or on defense him just throwing some crazy hedge out
thirty five feet from the rim when the guard hasn't
even used the screen yet and the guard just simply
rejects the screen and now Karl Anthony Towns is thirty
five feet away from the rim being completely useless, while
giving up a wide open layup or a wide open dunk.
(18:53):
He is just so undisciplined outside of his offensive game
that it massively undercuts his offensive production. And again it's
a shame because he is he is a great offensive player,
and that separates him from even players above this list.
As an offensive player, he was eighth in playoff scoring
(19:15):
this year among players who played at least ten games
fifty nine percent true shooting. He made third team All
NBA this year for his regular season production. But again,
as we mentioned in the criteria, the idea like one
of the things when we're talking about getting through from
October all the way through June, one of the important
(19:35):
details is like, are you good enough on defense that
we can at least run a functional defensive scheme with
you on the floor. Can we scale up our defense
to where it needs to get. One of the things
we're going to talk about when we get to the
first player on our list is I view two different
kinds of bad defenders in the NBA. There's bad defenders
(19:56):
that have their athletic limitations. They're small, they're slow, whatever
it might be. But they understand defense. They know where
to be, they understand how to fill a role in
his scheme. They can kind of see things coming, They
have good defensive instincts. These are the guys that can
(20:17):
scale up their defense in the postseason context, even with
their athletic limitations. Then there are bad defenders who like
straight up don't understand defense. It's less about athleticism. And
there are great athletes that fall into this category, but
they don't know where to be. They have poor instincts,
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They make poor help recover to situations, leaving a shooter
when they shouldn't, not helping when they should, missing basic
details like box outs and corner crashes, or excuse me,
a crackdown rebounding from the wing. To try to help
your bigs when they're engaged in box outs like they're
just they're undisciplined in the details. That is a kind
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of defense that you cannot scale up with in the postseason.
If anything, it gets further exposed. And Kat falls into
that second category of bad defender, and that for me
was what ended up keeping him out of this list,
making him one of the final cuts. But again it's
important for me to acknowledge both hard and and cat
I had at twenty six and twenty seven in this list.
(21:21):
So on that note, let's get started again. Two players today,
number twenty five and number twenty four. Number twenty five
Jamal Murray, a player that was as high as number
sixteen two years ago after they won the title, when
he averaged a preposterous stat line on the way to
hoisting the trophy, and then actually dropping out of the
(21:42):
list last year after a brutal shooting performance outside of
a couple of game winners in his playoff run last season.
In review for Jamal Murray, you played in sixty seven games,
averaged twenty one points, four rebounds, and six assists, one
point nine stocks. He's one of those guys who falls
into that set, that first category of like players that
(22:02):
has some athletic limitations, but that he understands defense. We're
going to get into that more later, but he is
a good defensive playmaker. His one point four steals per
game is the same as guys like Amn Thompson and
Jimmy Butler. He's a good defensive playmaker. His efficiency, he
was forty seven percent from the field last year, thirty
nine percent from three, eighty nine percent from the line,
(22:24):
fifty four percent in effective field goal percentage. That's field
goals waited for weighted for threes, and then fifty eight
percent true shooting, which waits his ability to get to
the foul line. His playtype data we're going to get
into this. This is data for throughout this entire list.
This data is from Synergy and it's specifically about how
efficient each player is out of certain types of action.
(22:45):
So pick and rolls, for examples, ISOs post ups, attacking
closeouts for our big guy scoring out a role man
touches things along those lines right in pick and roll.
Jamal ran eight hundred and fifty seven pick and rolls
last year, and he got one point zero nine points
per possession including passes. That's in the eighty fifth percent
tile out of the twenty three players to run at
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least eight hundred pick and rolls last year. His one
point zero nine points per possession ranked sixth on that list.
Jamal is the quintessential modern NBA pick and roll player
because he can make all of the shots and all
of the reads out of every conceivable situation that he
would run into playing pick and roll with Nikole Jokich. So,
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for instance, you duck under a pick against Jamal in
a ball screen, or if you die on the pick
and you let him get a clean look. He shot
over forty percent on off the dribble threes last year.
You cannot go under or die on the pick against
Jamal if you get over the top, but you're separated
at all because you get caught a little bit on
(23:50):
the pick, or he just shed you with a move
that sets you up for the pick. He can score
effectively in the mid range. He's forty six percent on
mid range pull out twos, and he's just as efficient
outside as seventeen feet as he is inside of seventeen feet.
A very good mid range jump shooter, forty three percent
on floaters, so he can make the shots in the
(24:12):
short to mid range that you get if you run
into the pick. And then he finishes at the rim
better than most guards. He was sixty percent at the
rim last year. Five attempts per game. That's really good.
And then he's an underrated playmaker out of action. He's
averaged six point two assists per game in the three
seasons since his knee injury, at roughly a three to
one assist The turnover ratio not an offensive engine like
(24:35):
some of the other guys we will discuss on this list,
but he can make the reads. But most importantly, and
this is the separator from Jamal, for Jamal from many
of the other players, even some guys that are above
him on this list. In the event of a switch
or a situation that calls for one on one, he
is still one of the very best one on one
(24:56):
players in the NBA. He ran two hundred and five
fifty ISOs and post ups last year including passes, and
generated two hundred and sixty five points out of them.
That's one point zero six point per possession, which is
very good for one on one play, specifically with ISOs.
His one point zero four points per possession including passes
(25:17):
ranked thirteenth out of the fifty two players to run
at least one hundred and fifty ISOs last year, ahead
of big names like Steph Curry, Lebron James, Jason Tatum,
Donovan Mitchell. He is remarkably gifted at getting separation with
dribble combinations. In footwork, he can shoot step backs and
(25:38):
side steps and turn around jump shots over both shoulders.
He can get wherever he wants to on the floor,
get separation from defenders, and his shot making ability is incredible,
and so that's what makes him such an incredible two
man game partner with Nikola JOKICCH Jokic is an excellent
screener and he has great role man gravity. Right guys
(26:01):
gravitate towards him on the roll, so he gets good
separation in ball screens and in those situations forty percent
on pull up threes, forty six percent on pull up twos,
forty three percent on floaters, sixty percent at the rim.
He's very efficient making any shot that he might need
to make coming off of action with Nikola JOKICCH. But
(26:22):
then if you switch, he's going to be able to
burn a big man or to post up a small
He's got the versatility as a one on one player
to fulfill the other side of the two man game
equation with Nikola Jokic. That is the separator. That's what
makes him so uniquely impactful alongside NIKOLEA. Jokic relative to
(26:48):
his like in a vacuum type of value, he doesn't
really have a weakness on offense. If you leave him
wide open, he's a great catch and shoot player. He's
forty one point four percent on unguarded catch and shoot
jump shot. Last year, he can drive a close out.
He finishes extremely well on cuts for a guard. He
shoots seventy one percent on cuts because he's a good
rim finisher. In the playoffs, he had his late his
(27:11):
like ups and downs. This is worth mentioning with Jamal,
but one of the things that's kind of prevented his
up and down shot making In terms of postseason consistency,
He's been so good late in games that it undoes
most of the damage from that kind of inconsistent shooting.
He's hit in the last three playoff runs sixteen clut shots,
(27:35):
including multiple buzzer beaters. He is one of the most
dependable late game shot makers in the NBA, which gives
him a ton of postseason utility. Now he has his downsides,
Jamal can be a very frustrating player because of his lows.
He's notorious for coming into training camp out of shape
and then playing his way into shape. His seasons tend
(27:58):
to take on this repetitive flow where he gets in
shape and plays really well in the middle portion of
the season, but then his body starts to break down.
He's had to miss a decent chunk of time right
before the postseason in each of the last two years,
those injuries end up then disrupting his rhythm and preventing
him from getting to that level of consistency. Again, if
(28:20):
you look during the title run, he averaged twenty six
point six rebounds and seven assists on fifty nine percent
true shooting. He's shown it before that for four playoff
rounds he can be a reliable score. He just hasn't
been able to replicate the necessary conditioning in that conditioning
is directly related to you being able to sustain certain
(28:41):
little bang up injuries that you might get over the
course of the year. The stuff with defense with Jamal
I'm less concerned with. Again, like we talked about earlier,
there are two different kinds of bad defenders. Guys who
just straight up don't understand defense and are constantly in
the wrong place. These are mistake makers. They incessantly make mistakes,
(29:01):
and it makes them impossible to bring or build a
good defense around. Then there's the guys that are limited
athletes and because of their offensive focus, they might have
a lot of like laziness in the regular season, or
it's less about them not understanding where to be, but
them just being like bah, fuck it, We'll try it
again on the next possession, or we'll do it at
(29:23):
the end of the game when we need to. Right,
there are a lot of guys who fall into that category.
Jamal falls into that category. And in that category, these
are guys that have high IQ, that do understand defense,
do know where to be, do know when to rotate,
when not to, how to fulfill a role in a defense.
Those guys can scale up their defense when they need to.
And it's absolutely worth mentioning that the Nuggets have been
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able to scale up their defense to where they need
to get in the playoffs, winning the title in twenty
twenty three. Last year, they did about as good a
job guarding Oklahoma City as anybody in that playoff run
because of their intelligence, their overall cumulative intelligence on the
defensive end of the floor. And Jamal Murray was part
of that. And he's a good defensive playmaker. But the
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conditioning stuff is real and it obviously comes with inconsistency
that has hurt his team at times over the years.
That's what prevents Jamal from reaching his potential again. I've
had him as high as number sixteen on this list
two summers ago. After they won the title. He is
capable of getting back to that level if he can
work on those conditioning details and maximize his talent over
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the course of an entire season. For all to talk about,
you know, Nikole Jochitz never playing with an All Star
or an All NBA player, we all know.
Speaker 1 (30:41):
That Jamal Murray can get to that level.
Speaker 2 (30:44):
Maybe not All NBA, but he certainly can get to
that All Star level as one of the top, you know,
sixteen to twenty five players in the NBA. He just
has to maximize through his conditioning to start seasons. But
even in his current state as a basketball player, he's
one of the most valuable players in the league, especially
in his very specific role alongside Nikole Yokic, which is
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his ability to score and playmake out of every conceivable situation,
including switches. It's truly unique. There's not a lot of guards,
including the next guy we're going to discuss on this list,
that have that level of versatility, and it's what allows
Jamal to come in at number twenty five on this
year's list. Number twenty four Tray Young. Last season in review,
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he played in seventy six games, average twenty four points,
three rebounds and twelve assists, one point four stocks. Decent
steels guy. Over the course of the last couple seasons,
his efficiency forty one percent from the field, thirty four
percent from three eighty eight percent from the foul line
represents forty nine percent an effective field goal percentage fifty
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seven percent in true shooting. This is a lot having
to do with his throw rate. He's a high free
throw rate, and he shoots the ball well when he
gets to the foul line. That allows him to have
a high true shooting percentage relative to his actual ability
to put the ball in the basket. Play type data
consistently one of the highest volume pick and roll players
in the NBA. He ran over two thousand pick and
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rolls last year including passes. For perspective, when I've done
the high volume pick and roll list each summer, I
typically have the cutoff at one thousand. He's ran over
two thousand. Shake Gilges Alexander ran the second most last year,
fourteen hundred and ten, so a massive gap in pick
and roll volume between Trey and the rest of the league.
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Trey ran two thousand and seventy eight pick and rolls
last year, generating twenty two hundred points. It's one point
zero six points per possession. That's very good on the
high volume list. Out of the thirteen players to run
at least one thousand pick and rolls, his one point
zero six points per possession ranked eight. Now, before we
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go any further, I want to shout out Tyres Haliburton
and Damian Lillard here. Those two guys actually came in
at number one and number two on this list as
the most efficient pick and role players in the NBA,
but obviously they didn't make the list this year because
of their Achilles tears. I want to particularly draw attention
to Tyrese Halliburton. He ran over fifteen hundred pick and
rolls last year, including the playoffs, and got one point
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one to three points per possession, which was far and
away number one in the NBA and total efficiency. I've
talked a lot about Tyrese Haliburton's kind of like offensive
engine capabilities and just how uniquely valuable it is in
the modern NBA that he can constantly set guys up
with advantages, and I just wanted to shine a light
on Tyree's for a second, because, like again, including the postseason,
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massive volume over fifteen hundred pick and rolls. His efficiency
was three points better per one hundred possessions than anyone
else in the NBA. Just one of the very best
offensive engines in the sport. I just wanted to take
a minute to shout out Tyre Saliburton. With Trey, it's
important to acknowledge he's playing with less offensive talent than
many of the high volume pick and roll guys in
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the league. The Hawks ranked eighteenth in spot of efficiency.
They were a bottom half catch and shoot team. They
generated more roleman touches than anyone in the league, but
they were very mediocre at finishing them. This is not
a team that surrounds Trey Young with super high level
offensive talent. Trey was a remarkable offensive engine for a
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group of pretty young and pretty flawed offensive players. Yet
they still had a one point fifteen point two offensive
rating when he was on the floor last year that
would crack the top ten among teams in the NBA.
Their offense cratered to eight points worse per one hundred
possessions when he was off the floor. For Trey, he
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falls into that category of relentless advantage creation concept we've
discussed with respect to James Harden, you know, Nikola Jokic,
Luka Doncic, Tyrese Halliburton. This idea of these players that
just set up their teammates with a massive volume of
possessions where they have the ball with the player sprinting
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at them rather than the player standing directly in front
of them, and that manifests with easier opportunities that even
flawed basketball players can capitalize on. Trey is a relentless
advantage creator. It is that rather than versatility that he
brings to the table. A guy like Jamal brings that
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versatility the ISO play, the ability to beat switches, things
along those lines. For Trey, it's the singular talent of
advantage creation. Trey Jung is not.
Speaker 1 (35:48):
A very good ISO player.
Speaker 2 (35:50):
He shot just thirty percent from the field last year
from the field out of ISO to zero point eight
points per possession. He wasn't good including passes either. He's
not an ISO player. He's not nearly the tough shot
maker that Jamal Murray is. He doesn't get to the
rim a ton. He misses more than half the time
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when he gets there, so he is vulnerable to switching schemes.
That's the big offensive weakness. For a guy like Treyo.
But he provides a reasonable vacsimile of what Tyrese Haliburton
brings to the table as a lead guard. Excellent transition passing,
kick ahead passes that unlocks the athletes on this Hawks roster.
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I'm specifically super excited to see a full season of
a healthy Jalen Johnson and Zachary Risasche running the wings.
Those are two of the best floor runners in the NBA.
Obviously more athletic depth with Dyson Daniels and Nikhil Alexander Walker.
Trey is relentless with kick ahead passes. That is going
to be a super high value add for the Hawks
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this year. That is what I mean when I say
like that reasonable facts of what Tyre's Halliburton brings to
the table. But he's also the quintessential pick and role
player against against like traditional coverages, Like if you're chasing
Trey over the top of screens instead of switching, He's
got everything you need to succeed there. He's a good
drop coverage scorer, like with his pull up three point
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shitt And this is a perfect example of the difference
between him and Iso versus at a ball screen so
envision a pull up three, so and off the dribble
three in a ball screen, it's probably going to be
because you dribbled off the screen and.
Speaker 1 (37:31):
The guy got hit. Because he got hit, big.
Speaker 2 (37:33):
Man's too far back, there's an opening for him to
settle into a pull up three.
Speaker 1 (37:38):
A pull up three out of ISO.
Speaker 2 (37:40):
The defender is squared up with him and he has
to make some kind of move to get separation. A
side step, a step back, something along those lines, maybe
a hesitation, dribble, pulling the ball further away from the basket,
whatever he needs to do to get that pull up
three off. Very different type of shot. Trey Young was
below twenty percent on pull up three's out of ISO
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last year. He was thirty seven percent on pull up
threes out of pick and roll. That is a perfect
example of that dynamic that I'm talking about. The same
thing goes with two point shooting. What does a two
point jump shot look like, or two point shot of
any kind look like out of a ball screen. It's
a floater because the guard got caught on the screen
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and the bigs too far back, or a little mid
range pull up, something along those lines. They are open
shots that are being conceded in the action, whereas a
two point shot out of ISO that's more of I've
got to get separation from an on ball defender. Trey
Jung shot thirty six percent on twos out of ISO
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last year, forty six percent on twos out of ball screens.
That's kind of the dynamic with Trey. That's what makes
him so susceptible to switching schemes. That's why their front
office went out to go get a guy like Chris
tops porzingis to help give him an ability to have
some resilience against pick and roll switching, but against traditional coverages.
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He scores the ball plenty well enough to unlock his
greatest strength, which is that he's one of the great
passers in the NBA. He's incredibly gifted in ball screens
at looking off back line defenders with no look passes
that open up angles for bounce passes and lobs to
biggs that are on the roll or cutting along the baseline.
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He can make skip passes to the corner with either hand.
He's a great left handed passer. That ability to relentlessly
create advantages for his teammates is what puts him into
that special category of elite offensive engines in the NBA.
Let's go back to the Jamal Murray example. Jamal Murray
can credibly make the reads. He can reach a certain
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floor as a playmaker that can allow him to run
a bench group or to be a reasonably good lead
ball handler right ball, could never come close to leading
a team like this Hawks team to the offensive heights
that Trey Young has lifted them to. It's not something
he's capable of doing because he's not the relentless advantage
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hunter and creator that Trey Young is. Conversely, if the
roles were reversed and Trey was in Denver, he wouldn't
be as successful with Jokic as Jamal Murray is. Jokic
doesn't need Trey's relentless advantage creation. He's a relentless advantage
creator himself. There's a redundancy there, diminishing return, and Trey
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isn't nearly as gifted as a tough shot maker. So
Trey's vulnerability to switching would be a ceiling lowering effect
in that Denver Nuggets offense in a way that Jamal
is not. That's why I always talk about your specific
value relative to your specific situation. Basketball is more art
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than science in that particular way. My belief in the
Hawks as a team this year lies in the unique
way that Trey Young accentuates this particular group.
Speaker 1 (41:09):
The roster is.
Speaker 2 (41:10):
Chock full of talented young athletes, but none of them
are particularly good at all at breaking down a set defense.
They will not be able to score when Trey Young
is off the floor, but each of the players on
that roster can score if they have an advantage given
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to them. Zachary Resasche and Jalen Johnson are two of
the best transition floor running wings in the league. They
can score effectively there. Both of them are improving as
spot up jump shooters and his close out attackers. The
Keil Alexander Walker is an excellent catch and shoot player
and has a little bit of close out attacking of
his own. Dyson Daniels is super raw, but has some
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tools and has good touch in the short range and
a lot of things that will allow him to score
with openings. And Yakakongu can score on the role. And
Chris Porzingis should again help them be able to deal
with Trey's biggest offensive weakness, which is his vulnerability to
switching in Washington three years ago one point one to
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three points per posed up including passes. First year in
Boston one point three to one, last year in Boston
one point two to three. He is a reliable efficient
on an island post up player, especially against advantages that
come out of switches, which teams will inevitably deploy because
that's the best way to kind of contend with what
Trey Young does.
Speaker 1 (42:34):
Now.
Speaker 2 (42:34):
On the defensive end, I think Trey falls into the
high IQ player that has good defensive instincts and knows
where to be. He's just especially lazy and especially limited
as an athlete, and that puts him at the very
bottom of that type of defensive player. Most famously recently
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his putrid effort at the end of that play in
game against Miami where he's just kind of floating around
and watching the heat grab multiple offensive rebounds that ends
in a dagger by Davion Mitchell along the left wing right,
although it's worth mentioning the game is basically how to
reach at that point, but he does understand defense, he
does know where to be, and I have seen him
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at various points over the course of the last few
years be a serviceable defender for short stretches. He's a
quick guard, he can cover ground in rotation, and like
we mentioned earlier, he does understand where to be. But
his limitations are so loud because of his lack of
physical tools, and so that kind of prevents him from
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getting to the same level of the other great offensive
engines in the NBA, like Tyres Halliburton, for instance, like
is in that category, but is much more active, more consistently,
and has like legitimate length, so he can be a
defensive playmaker in a way that Trey Young can't be,
so that prevents him from getting higher on the Like.
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You guys know how much I value offensive advantage creation,
and Trey has always been like on the outside looking
in on this list or barely cracking this list, in
large part because those defensive shortcomings are so loud with
his physical limitations. But I still think advantage creation is
one of the most valuable traits for an NBA player
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to have, and Trey brings it in spades, and I'm
especially excited to see him play with this young and
deep Hawks team this year. So he comes in at
twenty four on this year's player rankings list. All right, guys,
this is all I have for today. As I mentioned,
we are going to have four more on Wednesday. Then
we'll go three at a time through till we get
to the top ten, and then we're going one out
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of time through the top ten. We're going to mail
bags on Fridays throughout the way. We're going to stretch
this out. There's no reason to rush. We got lots
of time to kill before we get into September and
we start our season previews. So again, anything you disagree
with a player I didn't have on the list that
you think should have been ranked, a player that I
listed to day that you think is too high or
too low, whatever it might be, drop it in the
mailbag questions. Provide a brief like kind of concise elevator
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pitch for why you feel that that ranking should be different,
and we will get to them in our mailbags throughout
the remainder of this list. Again, I appreciate you guys
for rocking with us in sport and show. Now see
you guys on Wednesday,