NBA Title Contender Rankings: Thunder lead way over Nuggets, Rockets, Warriors, Lakers & more

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
The Volume.

Speaker 2 (00:15):
All right, welcome to hoops today here at the Volume.
Happy Friday, everybody. I hope all of you guys have
had a great holiday week. I wanted to get into
as we are now a month into the NBA regular
season and update on our contender rankings. And with our
contender rankings, to be clear, I never make substantial changes.
I am very very slow to move on this sort

(00:36):
of thing because I don't overreact to regular season results.
But at the very least, if we check in every month,
you'll get to see the slight tweaks that I've made,
but also gives us a chance to at least check
in on these teams and what they've accomplished to this
point in the season, how we feel about them. Just
essentially monthly check ins, and I could think of nobody
better to come join us as we check in on

(00:57):
our contenders at this point in the season. Then the
Nerd sash guys Carson and Logan is great to see
you both. I appreciate you guys coming to hang out today.
By the way, quick disclaimer, this is being recorded on Monday,
so any games that have happened on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday,
or Thursday night are not being factored in here, but
more or less, again, this is meant to be more
just a big picture check in on the contenders. How

(01:20):
are you guys holding up on the grind? I feel
like this Thanksgiving week always sneaks up on us and
it's like, oh, yeah, we get to have a little
break finally.

Speaker 3 (01:26):
Yeah, that's gonna be nice for sure. But I have
been loving the basketball this year. I gotta say, like, obviously,
injuries unfortunate, but other than that, I think the quality
of play is so fun. We're seeing so much interesting
strategic stuff and crazy player leaves and basketball just rock.
So I cannot wait to talk about these contenders with you. Jason.

Speaker 1 (01:48):
I'm feeling the exact same way. Thank you for having
us on again, Jason. No, Lie, I've just been kind
of putting my head down and Thanksgiving creeped up on us.
I am excited to get some good food and stuff
later this week, but I am also excited to talk
some ball with you, Jason.

Speaker 2 (02:04):
I know it's going to be like at the time
of recording of will have been a very weird Thanksgiving
for me because I'm actually not with family this year
because we moved to Denver, So we're going skiing. It's
going to be very just my wife and eye type
of Thanksgiving, which will be fun. So as much as
i'd like to immediately just come out guns blazing attacking
you guys for both leaving the Lakers off of your

(02:26):
top ten contenders, I'm actually sneaky low on the Lakers,
which we'll get to when we actually get to them.
But I could not believe that you guys both left
them completely off of your list, completely indefensible. We'll save
that for later. We're going to start from the top down.
So I have moved to Oklahoma City to number one. Now,
to be clear, I have not moved all the way

(02:47):
to Carson Land, where before the season he said that
there was about an eighty percent chance that they would
beat Denver. I've just tilted from that fifty three forty
seven leaning towards Denver to more of like a fifty
three for four seven leaning towards Oklahoma City, And to
be clear, has nothing to do with anything that I've
seen from Denver. I think Denver in many ways has
hit checkpoints this year for any sort of concern surrounding

(03:12):
Cam Johnson's struggles. He's really started to come together, and
their defense has looked better than we could have expected.
Denver's fine, This is not a Denver take to me.
It's just Oklahoma City at number two for me had
a lot to do with their youth and them being
kind of mistake prone and them needing some internal improvement.
That was going to be an unknown as we came

(03:34):
into the season, but the exact opposite has happened. All
of that unknown has been fully known as Chet has
clearly taken an offensive leap as AJ Mitchell again twenty
points on eight for eight shooting on the Sunday night game,
obviously recording this on Monday, just showing that additional dribble
creator which was like a significant weakness for them in
the postseason last year that Indiana exposed with their ball pressure,

(03:57):
and AJ Mitchell just looks like a massive addition there.
Shake Killjus Alexander has experienced a nice, little modest leap,
fueled by his now very reliable three point shooting, which
has become a big weapon for him. He's at a
career high sixty seven percent through shooting. Oklahoma City also
doesn't seem to be that mistake prone young team that
we saw for many of the stretches last year, as

(04:18):
their processing in the half court has been so high
level and they've been so good at the end of games.
I just think Oklahoma City has hit so many of
those checkpoints to me that Denver is now looking more
like an upset threat than a favorite to me, and
so I've moved Oklahoma City into that number one spot. Carson,
how are you feeling about Oklahoma City to this point
in the season.

Speaker 3 (04:38):
I think that we're looking at probably one of the
top three teams this century. That's where I'm at with them.
I mean, I think the PKD STEPH Warriors, right, they
still stand to me in a class of their own,
essentially until proven otherwise.

Speaker 4 (04:50):
The Oh.

Speaker 3 (04:50):
One Lakers that just absolutely ran through everybody else in
that playoff field only one total loss, and then I
think that it's going to be this year's thunder Listen,
They've got to go out and prove that in a
playoff run. But this team won sixty eight games last
year they won the title, and I think they are
significantly better this year For them to be seventeen and one,
even though they've had a lighter schedule, but with a

(05:12):
plus seventeen net rating almost a quarter into the season
without an all NBA player in Jada, I think they
have the highest regular season floor we've ever seen, and
I think there's a very real chance they win seventy
games because of that. And it's because, in my opinion,
we're looking at the greatest defense since the sixty Celtics.
Like the pace they're on right now is to set

(05:33):
the record for best relative defensive rating in the play
by player that's the last thirty years now, and not
just that, but to set a gap between them and
the number two defense that is the same as the
gap between the number two defense and the number seventy
five defense in that span. I'm not saying that's gonna
hold up, but to be doing that without an all
defense level guy in Jadub and I don't even think

(05:54):
that that accounts for the full value of this OKC defense,
because they're not just the best at getting stops that
we've seen in decades, they are the best ever at
turning defense into offense, off of turnovers into transition scoring.
So with this all time great defense, with this all
time great transition margin, with this all time great turnover margin,
where they forced them at a crazy rate. And then
Shay is literally the best at protecting the basketball that

(06:17):
we've ever seen. With the sort of offensive load that
he has, the floor is so obscenely high, and this
is a big reason that last year they won the
title when they were an average playoff half court offense.
That is so hard to do with today's NBA. Only
ok see, with this crazy margin they build in all
these other ways, could do that. Now. I look at
them this year and I think they're going to be

(06:37):
an elite half court offense in the playoffs. Like Shay,
I do agree, is looking better as a playmaker, is
looking better in terms of the consistency of the pull
up step back three that left him in the playoffs.
I would expect him to overall have a better, more
comfortable playoff run this time around. Check clearly has taken
an offensive leap. As you mentioned, he was one of
the biggest swing factors for them. Right when Chet was
great in the playoffs, they were cruising against Memphis, who

(06:59):
is a great opponent, But against Minnesota, when Chet really
struggled in the half court, that was when the OKC
offense could struggle a bit more. In those series got tighter.
I just feel more confident in him now. And aj
Mitchell is like maybe the biggest development of this all,
going from a team that was so reliant on two
ball handlers to now have one of the best bench
creators in the sport who's also just like a really

(07:21):
good all around basketball player. It's incredible. Their depth is insane,
and Jadub could be better when he comes back out
there this year, Like we don't know. He was already
picking up steam later in that playoff run, figuring some
stuff out in terms of his aggression getting all the
way to the basket. This is a young guy still
trending up where it's like I just don't see anybody

(07:41):
on their level. So I remain a huge OKC believer,
Like I was adamant that they were gonna win it
all last year, going back to a couple of years,
I was saying, this is a future dynasty. I feel
that way, and I feel that it's all materializing really
fast in front of us.

Speaker 1 (07:57):
Well, the reason that it could be a future dynasty
too is this is the beginning right now, right like
chet Holmer, and you feel like could play way better
than he did last year. Jalen Williams in the playoffs.
You feel like could be way more consistent than last year.
And they've got everybody's pick from now until the end
of time, so they're just gonna keep reloading the clip
every single year, right like they got the Clippers pick

(08:18):
this year. Yeah, I mean, I think Carson hit all
the nails on the head. They've got a historically great
offensive player and shay Gilges Alexander who is unstoppable inside
the arc and limits turnovers at an insane rate for
how often he has the ball in his hands.

Speaker 4 (08:33):
Aj Mitchell has emerged. I'm aligned with him.

Speaker 1 (08:36):
I think this is a historically great defense with a
historically great offensive player, with a bunch of young athletic
players that are continuing to get better. And yeah, they
are still a juggernaut to me and the clear favorite
in the league.

Speaker 2 (08:50):
Yeah, you know, I think some of their metrics will
come back down to earth a little bit just because
of this schedule. The schedule has been comically easy. They
have their opponent win person is two point six percent
lower than the twenty ninth ranked schedule in Phoenix. Right now,
they just are on a string right now. Five consecutive
blowout wins versus bad teams. But all I think about

(09:12):
when I see that is, yeah, their metrics are a
little inflated. What I don't think. I don't think any
of us are any under any sort of delusions of
grandeur that they're just going to run into some tougher
competition and then fall apart. Now, ultimately that's going to
be the difference between whether or not they win seventy
four games and they win sixty eight games will be
how well they perform against that competition. But they just

(09:34):
to me, I look at like Denver, as you know,
as we kind of moved towards Denver, there's this idea
of them being an upset threat and it depends on
them being a mediocre half court offense, and that to
me with the leaps that they've made there and just
they're just how crisp they are in the half court
with their movement and their decision making and now they're

(09:54):
just like like that that stretch in the second half
against Utah. I just had to watch it because I
saw the I saw the run on Twitter. It said
there was like, oh, twenty to zero run in like
three and a half minutes or whatever. The heck, it
was some insane number and I was like, I have
to go watch this, and so I went back and
watched it. It's like they just they looked like the
old school Warriors that were just running off of missus

(10:16):
and turnovers and just bang three bang, quick drive bang three,
and then like every once in a while, SHA's just
finding these little windows to quick drive to the basket
and shove a dude off for a layup. And it's
like they just look surgical right now. And I just
couldn't be any more impressed by them. As we moved
to my number two Denver. Again, this is gonna sound

(10:37):
weird because I'm gonna give you guys all this positive
stuff that I feel about them as I've dropped them
to number two. But again, it has all to do
with Oklahoma City. Cam Johnson's really starting to gain some momentum.
He's having some bigger scoring games. He had one of
the biggest I thought. He had two massive plays at
the tail end of the Houston game. He had that
big three that he hit off with the left wing
off of the Jokic post up, which was the final

(10:57):
lead changing shot of the game. A big defensive rotation
late in the game where he tagged Men Thompson on
a cut which forced a much more difficult corner three
point attempt to contest corner three point attempt from Jabari Smith.
He's just like making little plays, which I think is
a big part of why he's been one of their
better plus minus guys this season. I ultimately, I know,
juxtaposed with Michael Porter Junior just putting up at massive

(11:20):
numbers for a bad Brooklyn Nets team, that there's a
lot of talk about that being underwhelming. But I think
there's a universe where everyone's happy here. I think there's
a universe where Brooklyn trades Michael Porter Junior somewhere else
and that team's super happy, and Brooklyn super happy because
they've turned Cam Johnson into multiple first round picks, and
Denver's happy because Cam Johnson is a nice fit for
their system, And that ultimately is where I think this

(11:42):
all lands. And I think Cam is starting to gain
some momentum. Their depth is becoming super valuable now as
we've seen the injuries to Aaron Gordon and Christian Brown
and we've seen guys step up and make plays. I
don't really think too much about the Sacramento loss. I
thought that was purely a schedule loss as they landed
back in Denver at like two thirty am that coming
off the Houston game. To me, their defense has looked

(12:03):
ahead of where we would expect it to be at
this point of the year. Yoka just playing the very
best basketball of his career right now. Jamal Murray was
awesome and made every play on both ends of the
floor down the stretch against Houston and continues to just
be one of the biggest gamers in the NBA. I
think the Vets all look super locked in and engaged.
The bench has been weird because it's cost him some games,

(12:24):
but it's also won them some games. So like it's
been very up and down, but I ultimately think that
will balance out over time. I've been really really impressed
by Denver. To me, them dropping is mostly just about
Oklahoma City ascending. And let's start with you, Logan. What's
been your take on Denver to start this season.

Speaker 1 (12:40):
I'm really excited about Denver and especially their addition to
Cam Johnson. I brought this up on last episode, and
I think you make a great point, Jason. Some fans
may feel underwhelmed with what he's given them to start
the season, but you have to recognize the other dominoes
that fail when they got rid of Michael Porter Junior.
And by clearing all of that salary cap up, it
allows you to fill out this bench with all of

(13:01):
these important depth pieces that just make you so much deeper.
So Cam may not be giving it to you statistically,
but I think you're getting it back in the aggregate
with all the players they added.

Speaker 4 (13:11):
And I really like what Cam does for this team.

Speaker 1 (13:13):
I get that he's not putting up the gaudy scoring
numbers of an MPG, the little connective passing he does,
how he can be a release valve as a ball
handler in creator, how he moves without the ball at
the connection you're talking about as a defender.

Speaker 4 (13:26):
He does so many little things for this team.

Speaker 1 (13:28):
And like the Sacramento loss, they generated so many open
threes that they just didn't hit. Like that is Denver's
one of Denver's superpowers to me and why I enjoy
watching them so much, Like they just create such an
obscenely high shot quality off of Jokic, and they actually
have guys down the roster that can capitalize off of

(13:50):
the advantage.

Speaker 4 (13:50):
That he creates like they just have.

Speaker 1 (13:53):
It's pretty simple, like Denver to me, just has more
basketball players that can actually give you rotation minutes and
that is such a big difference from what they had.
You can mention the the on and off numbers this
year from years previous with jokicch Like, I think they're
negative nine point four without Jokic over the last three
years as a net rating team.

Speaker 4 (14:12):
This year they're dead even Like that's a huge difference.

Speaker 1 (14:16):
I just think the depth and overall contributions that you're
getting from everybody. Tim Hardaway Junior has been huge for
this team. Like you said, the bench may not be
giving it to you every night, but they're way better
than they've been in This is the best group that
Yokich has ever had around him, I think, top to bottom,
and Jamal is playing great basketball. I agree with you, Jason,
I have nothing negative to say it all about the

(14:38):
Denver Nuggets. They are a clear number two to me
because of what they can bring offensively. And this just
has to do with how dominant the thunder have been.

Speaker 3 (14:47):
Carsons.

Speaker 2 (14:48):
Did you have them too as well?

Speaker 3 (14:49):
Yeah? I have them too, and they're clear too for me,
they were two in the preseason, like you were hinting out,
like I actually feel a little bit better about Denver
right now than I did coming into the year, even
though I was high on a lot of these things.
I just think everything except for cam jelling has gone
so well, and I do think that Cam is ultimately
gonna find his rhythm with this team. I do like
him more as a fit than MPG. I get that

(15:11):
the early season stats disparity couldn't be bigger, and like
Cam has had some clunkers, some really ugly shooting nights,
but I do think a little more ball handling right
his ability to actually drive off of handoffs with Jokic
and actually make some of these basic passing reads that
with MPG it was just a limitation of his And
I do think he's the more solid defender, So I
think ultimately, when you consider that and the contract, he's

(15:34):
the more versatile, better player, better fit for this team.
But even though he hasn't looked like how we would
have hoped that he has up to this point in
the year, I just think, like it's funny nobody even
mentioned the fact that Niko A. Jokic is averaging thirty
thirteen and eleven on sixty or seventy three percent through
shooting right now, because it's just like a given that

(15:54):
he's the best regular season offensive player at this point,
and now it's like, let's just fast forward to the
playoffs and see how he holds up against this Okac defense,
if he can surpass what he did last year, which
ultimately wasn't good enough to beat this juggernaut of a
team that is only getting better. I do think also
when you look to that matchup, another thing that is
going to be so important is the three point shooting battle,

(16:16):
and that's where Okac last year. That's another thing that
I think is going to get better for them in
the playoffs this year. The fact that they were thirteenth
out of sixteen playoff teams and three point percentage last year,
right that was a struggle in inconsistency for them after
they were a really good regular season three point shooting team.
So it's not just Chet, it's not just AJ. I
think that'll get better too. But also for Denver, they

(16:37):
now have the most three point volume they've had in years,
and it's not a lot. There's still not a volume
three point shooting team, but having a movement. Three point
shooter of the caliber of a THHJ who can come
off the bench, who can give you minutes at that
shooting guard spot. I think is very important, not just
for the three point battle in that matchup, which I
think Denver has to win because okay, see builds margin

(16:58):
in so many ways. They don't have to win it
in terms of volume, but probably in terms of percentage,
but also just for the spacing because even though Christian
Brown is better than THHJ as an overall basketball player,
the reality is Okac is so great at shrinking the floor.
They are so aggressive in terms of packing the paint,
doubling Jokic, and having a non floor spacer, Like I

(17:20):
think we can basically call Christian Brown that when it
comes to a playoff setting, he's just not confident and
comfortable knocking down those catch and shoot threes at volume.
Yet those cutting lanes aren't going to be as available,
and so I just think them having another option to
turn to there is big. When it comes to what
they've added on the bench. Jonas valenciunis being as productive
in his minutes, like it's easily the best Jokic backup

(17:40):
who they've had, so everything they did in the offseason
was right to me. In terms of player acquisitions, they
addressed what has been a disastrous bench in a big way.
But also just like the best players playing their best
basketball ever, like Jokic setting the bar even higher than
he ever has before. Jamal Murray, he's playing easily his
best regular season basketball in Octoper uber November. We've ever

(18:01):
seen like for this guy to be playing at close
to an all star level early in the year. Jamal
likes to come into the area averages fifteen a game
on fifty two percent through shooting for a couple months,
and then he hits his stride late in the year.
He is approaching this season with a level of seriousness.
I think his shot making, I think his playmaking has
all been so good, and like Aaron Gordon, dude, just
being a guy who now can go out there for

(18:23):
you and score basically nineteen twenty points per game with
really good efficiency. Obviously, maybe the one to fifty piece
is skewing things a little bit this early in the year,
but I just think his shooting leap is so insane,
and he is still great at all the things that
he was great at, say back in like twenty twenty three.
So I look at this team and I think they
are clearly better than the twenty twenty three Nuggets who

(18:45):
won the title. The difference is just they have to
go through a way better team than they had to
go through in that run. But I feel really good
about the Nuggets right now. The defense, I agree with you,
it's been encouraging. There was a stretch there where they
were like top three in defensive rating and it was like, Okay,
this obviously isn't going to stick. They had some great
opponent three point shooting luck, and I still think they've

(19:05):
had the second best opponent three point shooting luck, so
that'll probably continue to come back down to earth. But
I do think they are playing with a level of
effort connectedness on that side of the ball that, like,
we literally didn't see from them at all last year
until the playoffs. That defense was a disaster throughout the
entire regular season. So I think you got every reason
to think that Denver is way better than last year,

(19:26):
the best version of them we've ever seen, and definitely
the biggest threat to knock off the Thunder because they
have aniko A Jolkic and they have the offense that
should be the best in basketball, and a bench that
maybe won't as catastrophically lose those minutes.

Speaker 2 (19:39):
This time around, I'm going to put you guys on
the spot really quickly assign a percentage chance if Denver
played Oklahoma City in a playoff series, the percentage chance
that they would upset them again. I'm gonna hover right
around that, like forty five forty seven percent range.

Speaker 3 (19:51):
I'm sticking with my twenty. I'm saying, okay, season eighty
percent favorite, I'll say thirty thirty.

Speaker 2 (19:58):
Okay, right on. So onto the second change that I'm
making in my contender list. So obviously I started the
season with Denver over Oklahoma City by a hair, but
I also only had two teams on that tier because
I had dropped Houston as a result of the loss
of Fred Van Vliet. I am moving Houston as my
final team in that top tier of contenders up into

(20:19):
that tier at number three. I have been really impressed
by them this season in so many different ways, even
in that Denver game, Like for all of the things
that went wrong for them in that game, with how
much they struggled on offense in the first half, with
how much. Shanegun had a couple of pivotal mistakes late
in the game in the short role. There were like

(20:41):
a lot of things that could have easily gone their way,
Like Jabari Smith had a couple of wide open corner
threes that he missed late in the game. One of
those goes in different games. Shangun makes a couple of
different reads in the short roll, different game. On the
defensive end, a couple of mistakes, you know. Reed Shepherd
had this bad gamble that put them into rotation that
gave Jamal Murray and little pull up, and then Shanggun

(21:02):
inexplicably just let Jamal Murray take a layup by staying
glued up to Jokic on a roll.

Speaker 4 (21:06):
But other than that, I thought the ale.

Speaker 3 (21:08):
Gravity Jason is not inexplicable. That's the offensive go That's
a point we have to consider. And Yoka's favor go ahead.

Speaker 4 (21:13):
Yeah exactly.

Speaker 2 (21:14):
So I thought Houston, you know, because Houston has probably,
out of all of these teams, honestly because of just
how weird and new they are, they probably have the
most potential to improve between now in mid April and
ultimately I look at them as a very physically a
challenging team to deal with on both ends of the floor,
that is extremely deep, that has a simple dynamic that

(21:38):
is extremely difficult to guard, which is their two main
game of KD and Shangoon, And it's like, if you
switch it, the two of those guys can just target
specific weak defenders and they're just so good in they're
one on ones. If you shade over towards them at all,
and they're one on ones, they can bludgeon you on
the offensive glass. And I think this KD Shangoon, like
you bring anybody up to the level Shangoon run into

(21:58):
four on three. I think that's going to start leading
to a bunch of dunks and open threes without turnovers
here pretty soon as they continue to figure out the timing.
Reed Shepherd has been dynamic as a pick and roll
shot creator, which is not something I saw coming to
start this season. I just think Houston looks really good,
and I know that I have them as a firm
third because they have so much unknown, But I think
they're going to be a lot better than they are

(22:19):
now even when we get to mid April. I think
they provide the unique combination of like physical problems for
teams while also having two elite units, while also having
two stars that represent a real problematic duo. I just
believe in Houston as a top tier contender. Carson, where
did you have them on your list and did you
consider them to be a top tier contender?

Speaker 3 (22:39):
They're number three for me. I moved them up one
spot compared to the preseason. I have like a mini
tier break between Denver and Houston, and I have, okay,
seeing a tier of their own actually above everybody else.
But I think Houston has been amazing. I think they've
been as impressive as they possibly could have been. Like
when Fred Van Vliet went down, if you told me

(23:00):
this team would be the number one offense in basketball
right now, I would have said, no, I don't think
that's going to be the case, and yet here we are.
Like the playmaking and ball handling load that Shnggun has
been able to take on is absolutely incredible. Of the
leap that I think he has taken, just in terms
of putting the ball in the basket right, there's still
some touch stuff where he's not consistently in the upper echelons.

(23:24):
The finishing. He's not a good play finishing big right.
Still doesn't have the mid range game, but compared to
where he's at last year, I mean, he's been so
much more efficient overall as a paint scorer, getting the
line more, making his free throws more, adding this dimension
of even if it's not at volume like actual three
point shooting, all while he is the primary creator for
this number one offense. It's so impressive. What they do

(23:46):
on the offensive glass is like nothing we've ever seen.
They're the best offensive rebounding team on record in terms
of offensive rebound percentage. It's just incredible. So they dominate
the possession game in that way. Shehng gun playing at
this level, Katie being such an important for them, even
if he's not a primary ball handler, even if he's
not generating a ton of shots for teammates, a guy
who like when it comes down to it, can cut through,

(24:08):
can give you twenty seven on a lead. Efficiency like
that Orlando game, I just thought was so impressive how
Shangoun and Katie both felt like they could get whatever
they wanted down the stretch. Think about how crazy different
that feels from Houston's offense last year. It's such an improvement. Defensively,
I think they have the potential to play better and
be one of the best defenses in basketball. We still

(24:29):
haven't seen dfs for this team. Like I just love
the Rockets. I think they're the most interesting team in
the NBA. The fact that we're looking at a number
one offense that, like on paper, has some of the
worst spacing, that has the lowest three point rate in
the NBA, one of the lowest pick and roll rates,
but then by far the number one offensive rebound rate.
They go double big and the men Thompson out there
and they murder teams offensively. Nobody else plays like them whatsoever.

(24:53):
And I love it and I buy a lot of it.
The only reason that I have Denver clearly above them
is because I just feel more confident about Denver's offense
translating throughout a playoff run and specifically against Oka. See
okay see is going to make life incredibly hard on
anybody offensively. I do worry about the lack of ball
handling that Houston has, and I do worry a bit

(25:15):
about some of the spacing stuff, where I think that
they're going to dominate anybody on the offensive glass, like
that's a given and maybe that's their path to you know,
really making okay See uncomfortable dominating in that category, being
physically so big, so strong, overwhelming there. I just worry
about the ability of OKAC to be super aggressive playing
in gaps, to be super aggressive with their help overall

(25:37):
and just again kind of shrink the floor on them.
And I don't know that they have the shooting to
punish that, and I don't know that they have the
ball handling the deal with a shit ton of OKC
ball pressure. Like Reed Shepherd has been good this year,
just straight up against Oka See, he looked like a
scared little kid. He could not get the ball inside
the three point line, which, to be fair, he never
does much of that, but like it was to another

(25:58):
extent how uncomfortable he was in that matchup. Shangun is great,
but I just think it would be too much on
his plate. So I like Denver's formula to beat Oka
See is more so what it is compared to like
any regular season expectation, where I think Houston is every
bit as good as Denver because of their superpowers. What
they do that translates every night in the regular season,
and I think mostly translates in the playoffs, but just

(26:19):
a little bit less. I have a couple more concerns.

Speaker 1 (26:23):
Fundamentally agree with all that, but I really do like
how Houston matches up with Denver. Like that's the distinction
to me is the I like Denver's formula against OKAC
more than Houston's. But I do think Houston can go
toe to toe with Denver, Like it's really close between
both of those teams, where Houston is one of those
teams that you're never going to out physical, out athletic,

(26:44):
and like I think about them in a hypothetical matchup,
I think they could really overwhelm Jamal Murray if they
get up there at the point of attack. With all
the athletes they have, I think they could dominate Denver
in a way that they don't get beat on the glass.
And like I do like their formula a lot more
than last year.

Speaker 4 (27:01):
I just think I don't know.

Speaker 1 (27:03):
Ever since I've been watching basketball with you guys, I
have moved over towards really preferring physical and athletic and
big ass strong teams that like you can't.

Speaker 4 (27:11):
That's why I like Detroit a lot.

Speaker 1 (27:12):
And I know Detroit's a different, you know, kind of
beast because they have different kind offense.

Speaker 4 (27:16):
You know, they're way different.

Speaker 1 (27:17):
Houston's the best offense in basketball, but I like Houston's
formula a lot. That's something that you just can't take away,
you know what I mean. That is an unalienable thing
from Houston. They are going to hit you in the
mouth and beat you on the glass, and so that
is the difference. Though to me, Carson, I think that
Houston would really struggle just to put the rock on
the floor against Okac. I think they get really overwhelmed

(27:38):
at the point of attack.

Speaker 2 (27:40):
Yeah, the Houston Denver matchup was super interesting because like
Jokich typically and crunch time will have these stretches where
he just goes to the post and he hit like
a little face up jump shot against Steven Adams. But
for the most part, like I thought, like Jokic kicked
Shane Gun's ass in that game. But Shane Gun did
hold up reasonably well in his one on one against Jokis,
which kind of forced them to lean entirely into Murray

(28:03):
Jokich two man game, which forced them into a lot
of jump shots. Other than that left you layup from
from Jamal there was like a contested Jokic jumper, a
couple of contested jamal jumpers, you know, and then that
Cam Johnson three. So like I think that they do
match up in an interesting way with Denver. I still
think Denver's better, and I've picked Denver in a series
against them, But I Houston and their legitimate threat to

(28:25):
beat to Denver and their weirdness and what that could
present to a team like Okay. See, it's a big
part of why I have them in that top tier.
So I have a massive drop off from here to
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(30:23):
The next two that I have, even though there are
different numbers than I had in previous in the first
edition of the Contender rankings, I just have them slid
beneath Houston.

Speaker 4 (30:34):
Number four.

Speaker 2 (30:36):
I have the Cleveland Cavaliers, And you know, it's interesting
because there's been a lot of good and bad with
them to start the season. Donovan Mitchell looks incredible. He's
been on an absolute heater over the course of the
last few weeks. Very glad to hear that this Darius
Garland toe kind of reaggravation was just something mild. He's
now played a few games in a row and we're
going to be seeing if he can actually stay healthy.

(30:57):
Nikolon Tomlin has provided that like high motor app athlete,
which has been something that they've missed in previous seasons.
My only real red flag with them to this point
in the season is they kind of have been getting
their butts kicked by some of these bigger and physical centers. Again,
we're recording this on Monday. They got eaten alive by
zubots In that Sunday game, even though they controlled Harden

(31:17):
and Kawhi and got a big win. And in the
Houston game in particular, like they absolutely got bludgeoned by
Houston on the interior in that game. And what concerns
me with that specific matchup is Detroit and like what
a guy like Jalen Duran could do to them in
a playoff series with some of their bigger, more physical
players could do against them in a series. Ultimately, I

(31:38):
viewed them as the best team in the East. I
think they have the best combination of perimeter shot creation,
good coaching, and like a system that works on both
ends of the floor. The main reason why I don't
view them as that top tier type of contender is
I just view them as a team that can be
physically overwhelmed. And there are a lot of teams in
this playoff field that can physically overwhelm you. So as

(32:01):
much as I have Cleveland as the best team in
the East, I viewed them as very upset. Like I
view them as a team that is is a high
potential upset risk early in an early round if they
catch a bad type of matchups. So again, to me,
this is more like a view of the East and
how they you know, in a lot of ways, have
been better than we've expected. They've got a lot of

(32:23):
teams that are performing better than we thought in their
record to start the season. The East has sneaky been
good against the West this year, at least at the
top compared to previous seasons. There's a lot of like upsides,
but there's no singular great team that's rising from the pack.
If I had to choose one, I choose Cleveland, which
is why I put them at the top of this
tier because if they can get out, they have an
easier path out of the conference. But I view them

(32:45):
as a team that is high risk for upset because
of their struggles against physicality. Logan, what's been your take
on Cleveland to start the season.

Speaker 4 (32:52):
I think they're vulnerable too.

Speaker 1 (32:54):
I'm waiting to see what happens with Darius Garland because
I think he is the X factor for this team.
I think it was the X factor for this team
last year with his toe injury, Like the offense loses
so much dynamism in creation when he's not out there. Now,
I really like Cleveland's depth this year. I think not
only like shout out Nikwon Tomlin. I think Lonzo Ball
has been awesome for them, would be awesome in a

(33:15):
playoff run, just all the little connective stuff he does.
I love a guy like Dean Wade, like I think
top to bottom, Cleveland has got two groups that I
really like.

Speaker 4 (33:25):
They've got versatility. My issue with them is kind of
what you're getting at, though, Jason.

Speaker 1 (33:30):
I think that that backcourt is an issue against bigger teams.
Where you're talking about a Detroit that's going to be
a really interesting kind of push pull matchup because it's
like this elite Cleveland offense that there are apex where
Detroit's way bigger. Detroit's got this great defense, but they
can stall out on offense. I think it's a really
interesting counter and how they play. But I do worry

(33:51):
about them in a matchup like that where Cleveland's just
is way smaller than Detroit. They've got size everywhere, athleticism,
but it's more the health and what Garland looks like.
And so Cleveland's number five. For me, I'm really high
on a team at number four. People were calling me
crazy for the take we can dive into that. I
don't even know if it'll be in your top ten, Jason.

(34:11):
I think they will, but I don't know. I need
to see it with Cleveland. A lot of this is
embedded faith from the Cats from their past two seasons,
where you know, I've seen it work with Mitchell and Mobley,
who I think are both top fifteen players.

Speaker 4 (34:26):
I've seen the formula come.

Speaker 1 (34:27):
Together where this is a really good regular season team,
and I think they're gonna be a really they're my
favorite in the East, a really tough out. I haven't
seen together it come together yet with Garland. I just
need to see a stretch of basketball from this team,
is what I'm saying, where like Garland's clicking, where it
all comes together before I'm really ready to put all
of my chips.

Speaker 4 (34:47):
In on Cleveland's gonna win the East.

Speaker 1 (34:49):
So I think they're the most talented, but they have
significant flaws and I want to see it worked out
before I'm ready to say like Cleveland is my dog
that I'm betting on in the East.

Speaker 3 (35:00):
Cleveland in the same tier as Houston, and Houston's clearly
been more impressive this year. But I think there's a
lot of reasons to think the Cavs are going to
look a lot better. Like Max struce not having suited up.
I think he's one of the best offensive role players
in basketball. I think that matters obviously Garland like only
now getting back on the court and still not really
looking like himself yet. Like this offense last year was

(35:24):
easily the number one unit in basketball in the regular season.
They absolutely shredded. I mean it was the heat, but
they were setting like offensive rating records in a single
series and then they totally fell apart physically. So I
just think their pick and roll attack is so insane.
With the duality of Garland and Mitchell. I think the
play finishing Bigs are good. They're an elite three point

(35:44):
shooting team. They're an overall good passing, really well coached
team that I just think we haven't seen them scratch
their offensive ceiling yet because they haven't had all of
their dudes out there, and they also haven't shot the
ball well. This is an elite, elite shooting team that
hasn't been that up to this point on the Sea.
And I also think, like Evan Mobley is somebody who
some people are like panicking about right now, I actually

(36:05):
think he's going to be better this year than last
year because I think We've seen him take on even
more as a ball handler, playmaker on the margins, but
still a little bit more there and get to the
free throw line more. The reality is just like he
is going through this horrific touch stretch where he's got
the yips at the free throw line. Clearly, his like
paint touch has n't been good. The mid range stuff

(36:25):
has been ugly from him. But I think he's gonna
at least get back to the level he was at
last year there and then be like you were saying, Logan,
like an all NBA level kind of contributor. And I
just think they're the most talented team overall on both
sides of the ball. I actually like you, Logan, like
the depth. I think it's better than last year. I
think Lonzo is so important in terms of being a
connective passer offensively, somebody who can knock down those shots

(36:46):
off the catch, and somebody who if you're feeling like,
oh man, our defensive backcourt is a real problem at
this moment. Okay, we can deploy Alonzo last year over
a Darius Garland in a stretch, and you can still
put together a great offensive group with Donovan Mitchell in
shooting and Mobili at the five or whatever the double
bigs and you can be a good defense in that configuration.
I think they've got a lot of answers. Jalen Tyson

(37:08):
emerging as like a legitimate quality two way wing for them,
Like he's a difference maker to me compared to last season,
and even last season, I think like people got way
too low and were way too hard on the Cavs
because they physically fell apart and Darius Garland couldn't play,
and Mobili got banged up, and DeAndre Hunter got banged up,
and all these things compounded for them. I understand your

(37:28):
criticism Jason about like them dealing with big physicality. I think,
like Jared Allen just has got to prove to us
one of these days in a playoff setting that he
can contend in that way, because I thought in the
Pacers series last year he was just spacey. I thought
he was not nearly active enough, assertive enough on the glass,
in the paint, on both sides of the ball. He

(37:49):
struggled guarding in space. Like he is probably the guy
who I look at and I say, Okay, you have
to prove it to me in a playoff run and
then Garland It's like, yes, I'm always going to have
those defensive concerns, but he's amazing. And I don't see
the team in the East that is good enough on
both sides of the ball to expose the Cavs defensive
issues to a level that like makes me think there's

(38:11):
a high percentage chance that Cleveland is going to lose
in that matchup. Now, when I get to Okay, see,
I go, Okay, this is why I like Houston and
Denver more in that matchup. I mean, Denver, it's the offense,
but Houston's defense I think actually holds up better against
an okace Cleveland. They do have the defensive backcourk concerns.
They do still put together a pretty good team defense overall, though,

(38:33):
And I just don't see another team in the East
that has that level of like two way proficiency. And
I really do think this offense could be insane when
we see them back in rhythm, and that's where they
could really separate from the pack. So I'm a Cavaliers
optimist overall.

Speaker 2 (38:46):
Yeah, it's weird because I don't think it was possible
to be any higher on Jared Allen than we all
were in the middle of last year's regular season and
you're like, oh, my gosh, is this one of the
top six or seven centers in the NBA? You know,
And now it's kind of back into that, like he
kind of just because of him getting his butt kicked
in the playoffs and him struggling against some of these bigger,
more physical centers. And that's a big problem. Even if
you go further back to like the Orlando series and

(39:08):
like they just in the in the nixt series in
particular two, like they just have struggled there. And to
me that and then Garland, the second piece of it
is like I need to see Garland Logan was hinting
at this, but an extended stretch where he just kind
of clearly demonstrates that his foot can handle the level
of dribble penetration they need from him. All Right, we're

(39:30):
gonna move a little bit quicker through the rest of
this list, moving on to number five Minnesota. This is
the exact opposite of the Denver situation. I have nothing
but bad things to say about whatever for them to
start the season. Yet I refuse to I refuse to
buy into the fact that they are as bad as
they have looked and the general trend with them as

(39:51):
they've kicked up the kicked butt against the bad teams
in the league, and then they've consistently lost against the
good teams. Anthony Edwards has had this like weird up
and down season that is actu manifested in him having
his most efficient scoring season of his career, which is bizarre.
The mid range jump shooting hasn't really been that proficient
for him, but he's shooting the three still pretty well

(40:12):
and overall with ant like, I think I think that
injury just kind of derailed his rhythm building to start
the season. I'm still a big believer in Aunt in
the big picture. I still think this team has this
athletic physicality dynamic that a lot of teams in the
West can't really match. When they get into the postseason.
They've experienced just enough offensive leaps from a couple of

(40:33):
key guys like Jada McDaniels. To me, is like another
like has taken a little mini leap on the offensive
end of the floor, which I think is key, and
they're just starting to generate a little bit more of
that continuity on offense. I ultimately am a big believer
in them is a big playoff threat because of just
how physical that they can be and how difficult their
main one on one guys can be to guard in
a playoff series. Nasrid as well as a guy that

(40:55):
I really believe in as a one on one kind
of like scoring type of weapon in the postseason. And
to me, if I look at the Western Conference, it's
a lot of teams with flaws after I get past Denver,
OKC Houston, and only one of them really stands out
as a team that can rise and meet the physicality
of that postseason environment. I have Minnesota at number five, Carson,

(41:15):
what are you feeling about Minnesota right now?

Speaker 3 (41:17):
Same spot, and they're pretty much locked in there. For me,
it's where I had them preseason. It's where I have
them now. I just think their offensive formula, their ability
to pressure the paint with Anthony Edwards, with Julius Randle,
these big physical athletes who can consistently create that penetration
and then make these kickout passes create for their shooters,
which they have a lot of. I mean, they're a

(41:39):
very good paint and three point shooting team. I like
that offensive formula, even if I do have concerns about
Julius Randall against OKC. Right, I think he's a disaster
in that matchup where he can't attack mismatches and his
game can kind of fall apart if you can't do that,
and the decision making can really be tested with him,
and and they're having to deal with this super aggressive
defense that is throwing all this crazy stuff at them,

(42:01):
Like that matchup I think is really problematic for them.
But when I think about just kind of like a
default them playing against an average or a good team,
I think they're able to replicate that offensive formula pretty consistently.
It's why they are a top seven offense again this year.
And then they've got really good defensive personnel, like they've
lost Niki Alexander Walker, who's bawling in Atlanta. But I
still think if you got good point of attack defense,

(42:23):
Gobar has been phenomenal on that side of the ball.
So realistically, their upside is probably going to come down
to what version of Ant and Randall can you get
over the entirety of a playoff run. Because Ant obviously
sets the ceiling for this team in a number of ways.
Just what level can he reach? Can he start contending
with like those top tier guys this year. Personally, I
don't think so, like the top five kind of guys.

(42:45):
Maybe there's a few games stretch where he can do it,
but over the course of a series, I just trust
a Shae for example, absolutely more than ant. So yeah,
I can't see them like climbing into that top tier
right now. I guess I would. I do worry just
a little bit about the lack of like another consistent,

(43:05):
reliable guard playmaker alongside. And I think they're absolutely right
to be starting Devincenzo over Conley because he's just way better.
But if they could have gotten you know, twenty seventeen
Mike Conley, he'd be a great fit for this team.
He's just fallen off so hard. So I have Minnesota
at five as well. They're a very good two way team,
and I feel like we know who they are, you know,
back to back Western Conference finals. But even though there

(43:25):
have been some improvements, like you're mentioning, I don't see
a meaningful enough improvement compared to some of these teams
that are like really really impressing me in the West.

Speaker 4 (43:34):
Yeah, they're number six to me.

Speaker 1 (43:36):
I agree with both of you guys, and I just
want to give some love to Julius Randall. I mean,
he has been balling this year. Like I've been so
thoroughly impressed with him. As a guy who's been critical
of Julius, I think he's.

Speaker 4 (43:47):
Super important to their playoff run. And I agree.

Speaker 1 (43:49):
Fundamentally that Ann and Randall were going to determine this
team's ceiling. On the margins, I've been really disappointed with
Terry Shannon Junior. He hasn't played that much this year,
but his minutes were not good. Jalen Clark, though I
have liked. I think he's a defensively like you Carson
on the margins. If they can improve, I'd really like
if they could get another guard or another wing, like
just because Conley Dillingham are like almost unplayable at this point,

(44:12):
I wish they had like two more guys. Not that
that makes a big difference in like where I see
this team going in the playoffs. I think that they're
a strong team, but I don't think they really hold
up to the Denvers in Houston's of the world.

Speaker 2 (44:26):
Yeah, you know, it's interesting. I think the Minnesota's kind
of at a weird spot here where I wonder if
they do something like crazy, like make an aggressive trade
because of kind of the little bit of a stagnant
nature of the general cores obviously aside from Cat and
Julius over the last couple of years, because they're not
playing super well against the higher level competition this season,

(44:48):
and I kind of go the other way, like I
would lean on continuity if I was Minnesota. I mean,
I'm not saying don't try to make a move to
bolster a specific you know, bench roll or something, but
I think that this group is a lot better and
they've shown this season and their group that I think
has a lot of playoff upside that I still believe in.
Moving on to number six, the team that you guys

(45:08):
did not include in your top ten contenders, I'm just
going to basically make a very brief pitch for why
I still think the Lakers are a contender, even though
I am lower on them than a lot of Laker
fans are. So there's a lot of obvious like upside.
Right Like, the Lakers are twelve and four, which is

(45:28):
the third best record in the NBA. They have played
five teams that are in the top ten in point
differential and they are four to one in those games.
They have the fourteenth best defense in the NBA right now,
which is kind of strange, but I'll get into that
in a minute. It comes down to their defensive IQ
and then being very good situationally when they've played top

(45:49):
ten offenses. They have the twelfth best defense in the
league in games against the top ten offenses. This season,
they have been a team that has kind of resembled
that Denver Nuggets four meala of a couple years ago,
where they're just kind of like high IQ defenders with
a couple of specialized defenders that can do jobs like
last night against Utah just maxically but and Gabe Vincent

(46:10):
just kind of sliding into these primary defensive roles, and
then Luca Lebron and Austin just kind of being smart
defenders around them. They've been the number one clutch defense
in the NBA this season, as they've been six and
zero in clutch games to start this year. So like
there's been a lot of these positive indicators that have
Lakers fans super excited. I'm a tiny bit lower on

(46:31):
them than most Lakers fans just simply because I've been
a little underwhelmed by their offense. I don't think it
has anything to do with the UH. With the mix
of Lebron, Luca, and Austin as creators, I think ultimately
that just leads to them creating awesome shots for the
most part, Like Lebron in, the post has been a
revelation to start the area as twenty two points generated

(46:52):
on thirteen post ups. Again, this is recorded on Monday.
But that's been great. Luca and Austin have both been
devastating and pick and Roll Luca's been devastating and Iso.
The only thing that I'm noticing is that they because
Luca and Austin are on the floor so much, their
issues is catch and shoot players are really rising to
the surface. For me, And I'm really disappointed in Austin
because I just thought that by this point in his

(47:12):
career he would have figured out how to become a
more reliable catch and shoot guy. But I just don't
think he's gonna make them when he's open, and that's
a problem. And they're like Utah's leaving Marcus Smart open
on picking pops and he's not knocking them down. Really,
if you look at their core rotation, the only two
guys that I view as like bona fide knockdown, catch
and shoot guys when they're open are Lebron and Rui,

(47:33):
and so that just puts together these lineups where at
any given time you have three guys on the floor
that either can't shoot or are streaky shooters, and that
just is causing them to be a little bit less
successful than I thought they could be on offense. They're
still fifth and half court offensive rating to start this
year despite that, which is just a testament to how
good their stars are. But I think they need to

(47:53):
be like one, two three on that list in order
to really have an opportunity to be a legit to
upset threat against the top tier guys, and I think
the only pathway to that because no trade is going
to solve the problem of the fact that so many
of these driving kick sequences are ending in open looks
for Austin or Luca and they're just not knocking him down.

(48:15):
And so to me, like weirdly, I'm higher on them
than I was to start the year in defense and
some key areas there, but the offense has just not
been as good as I think it needs to be.
I don't want to say it's over like it's still
only been you know, sixteen seventeen games. There's more time
for them to gain some momentum. But overall, I don't
see any case at all to leave them entirely off

(48:36):
the top tier contender list. So why don't you guys
explain to me how you could possibly feel that way.

Speaker 4 (48:41):
We'll start with you, Carson.

Speaker 3 (48:43):
So I don't think that I buy the defense being
average solid as much as you do. I think that
my concerns with them become heightened in a playoff setting,
where I think their defensive weak points are easier to
attack and can really be keyed on. And I think
that we saw this last year where they put together
stretch of solid regular season defense after the Luca trade,

(49:03):
and it was like, hey, we're playing connected, and we've
got enough aggregate size and IQ and we're rotating well
and we're playing in gaps well. And then it all
fell apart when it got down to a playoff series,
and it was kind of like, we can go at
Austin Reeves over and over again, we can go at
Luka Dantic over and over again, and we've just got
athletic creators who can consistently get past them, go through them,

(49:24):
and create advantages for our offense over and over again.
I like what Marcus Smart has brought for them defensively.
I think that's why if you look at like the
on off stuff, he's been a big positive, even as
his offense has not been good. His shooting has been
really bad. They needed a guy like that. I don't
think he's a good enough version of that player though
for them to like rely upon him over a playoff run.

(49:46):
So I still think the defense is not good. DeAndre
Ayt and I have the least faith in in the
world on that side of the ball. And I really
worry about the point of attack core backcourt again getting
attacked more in a playoff series. But really, I think
the other point is what you're touching on with the offense,
Like the offense would just have to be better than
it is for me to buy into this team as
like a top six kind of contender, And I think

(50:07):
we have this tendency and I did this last year
when I had the Lakers as a top five contender
of saying, yeah, the offense has never actually looked that good,
but look at these guys they have Luca Austin Reeves
and Lebron They're going to be an elite offense. It
hasn't materialized up to this point. And I think the
shooting point that you bring up is a really good one.
I do think I have concerns there. I also think

(50:27):
turnovers are an issue, and part of that is the
crazy usage that is on the plate of like a
Luca right, But nevertheless, that has to get better. Austin
Reeves is that's some turnover issue. Similar thing, really high usage.
But they have the highest turnover percentage in basketball right now,
and they're one of the worst, if not the worst,
in terms of overall transition differential because they just don't

(50:47):
get out and play with pace and score a lot
in transition. I think they're like minus six points per
game in transition. So my concern with the Lakers is
that you look at the Big Three and you look
at all the offensive pierpower you say, and it's like
they've got to be a contender because of that, Right,
I just worry that they are losing in the margins
every game. Right, they're a blow average offensive rebounding team.
The turnover stuff, the transition stuff, I worry about, the

(51:09):
defensive construction of this roster a lot. I think the
depth is better than last year, but I still don't
like it. And I just get concerned that the pressure
they are putting on their half court offense and on
these Big three specifically is so great, like they're fighting
out of a deficit every game against these really good teams.
That's my concern. And then yeah, the fact that like

(51:29):
after Luca trade last year, they were fourteenth in offensive rating.
This year, I think, what are they fourteenth in offensive
rating again?

Speaker 2 (51:36):
Fifteenth in offensive fifteenth overall, which is again they just
don't score transition thing.

Speaker 3 (51:41):
I just think, like athleticism in the full court and
depth are two things that are more important in the
NBA right now than they've maybe ever been. Like I
think the depth point is as we talk about, being
in this weaklink era, right on both sides of the ball,
and I just don't like how the Lakers profile in
those categories. So it's not that like they're tiers below

(52:01):
the teams who I have six through ten. I actually
think after the top five after Minnesota, there is a
drop off for me compared to everybody else. But I
do have a lot of these concerns, and like you
say when it comes to not being too moved by
the early regular season, like, yeah, they're twelve and four,
but I think, like if you look at simple rating system,
which is literally just point differential and strength of schedule
averaged out, they're sixteenth. So it hasn't been the most convincing. Obviously,

(52:25):
Lebron has only played a couple games, but I think
this team has some significant gaps that Lebron doesn't fill
for me at this stage in his career, even though
he's still obviously very good.

Speaker 1 (52:35):
Yeah, I mean well said, I basically completely agreed. The
bigger thing is, I agree, if the offense gets to
elite levels, I could consider the Lakers on the outside
of mine. But the bigger thing is, when I think
about these matchups, I just think the Lakers kind of
get eaten alive in a lot of these playoff matchups
we're talking about against these top teams, and I feel foolish.
Hand up, I got got last year, right. I picked

(52:56):
the Lakers to beat Minnesota and they got me.

Speaker 4 (53:00):
I foolish. I was drinking the kool aid.

Speaker 1 (53:02):
But like Anthony Edwards versus this team again, I think
he just cooks Luca and Austin Reeves relentlessly every single
possession down nicolea Jokic.

Speaker 4 (53:13):
I think Fries DeAndre Aiden. I don't think this team
can compete Houston.

Speaker 1 (53:17):
I think hits La and the jaw in his grabbing
every rebound, like there is just an athletic difference.

Speaker 4 (53:23):
San Antonio. I think I might take over La in
a series.

Speaker 1 (53:26):
If Wenby's healthy, I'm definitely taking san Antonio. I just
think that, yeah, there are some core limitations of this team,
and while I think they can reach these offensive heights,
I still think I don't know, Jason, and you're giving
all these numbers, and I want to buy into the
Lakers because they.

Speaker 4 (53:42):
Are They're fun, right, Luca and Lebron.

Speaker 1 (53:44):
I want to buy into this team, but like, I
don't buy the defense at the end of the day,
and I just think that at their best they are
in average defense, like we're seeing.

Speaker 2 (53:54):
Ultimately, where I break with you guys, is that where
you guys compare them to that other tier. I mean,
like you're hyper focusing on the flaws with the Lakers,
as if every team after Minnesota doesn't have significant, substantial flaws.
And I think where I break with you, guys, is like, Yeah,
I have severe concerns about the Lakers in a playoff

(54:14):
series against a team like Minnesota that can athletically overwhelm
them and can pick on some of their matchups. I
have severe concerns. I think they're on a completely different tier.
I told you guys, there's a massive gap between that Houston, OKC.
Denver tier and the rest of the group. I don't
think the Lakers are close to them because of how
athletically overwhelmed they are. Where I've broken with you guys
is you just have a lot of mediocre basketball teams

(54:35):
ranked over them in your top tier contenders. I don't
want to get into that today because we could literally
argue about it for a half hour. But to me,
at a certain point, we got to give the Lakers
credit for winning games. They are a very slow team
that seems intent on doing the bare minimum to win games,
which is going to actively hurt them in a lot
of their metrics. But ultimately, they keep beating everybody that

(54:56):
comes in front of them for the most part, and
I think they deserve more credit for that than what
they've been give and by most people.

Speaker 4 (55:02):
We're going to go.

Speaker 2 (55:02):
Really fast through these last three. At number seven, I
have the Detroit Pistons, And it's kind of interesting because
ultimately kind of similarly, they've been beaten everybody, right, and
there's a certain amount of upside that you have to
point to in terms of like how dominant Jalen Deurn
has looked this year killing teams on the front line.
How Kate I think is like one of those guys

(55:24):
that kind of falls into that Luca category where like
sometimes the metrics it's like, oh, the offensive rating isn't
that good, and like some of these specific pieces aren't
actually materializing in the large sample statistically as well as
you'd want, But ultimately he just keeps making enough plays
to win the basketball games. And like, and one of
the things I really like about Detroit is they're just

(55:46):
super big and physically imposing, and they're athletic on the perimeter,
and they have a good combination of perimeter defenders and
backside defenders. And I think they have a trade to make,
and I think that's where I would potentially vault them
up as if they ended up making a deal. My
favorite target is a guy like Michael Porter Junior.

Speaker 4 (56:00):
Right now.

Speaker 2 (56:01):
I think he'd be a massive ceiling Razor for them
as an upgrade on Tobias Harris. The reason why I
have Detroit down at seven despite their record is pretty simple.
They're not okay see and typically teams that are this
young and that rely on this many young players don't
have tremendous success in the postseason. I viewed them as
a puncher's chance threat in the Eastern Conference. I wouldn't

(56:21):
be stunned if they got out, but to me, they're
going to be less of a playoff threat than their
record would lead you to believe. Logan, what's been your
take on the Pistons to start this season.

Speaker 4 (56:31):
I'm really excited about the Pistons.

Speaker 1 (56:33):
They've got twelve straight wins now at this point in
the season, I was really hoping that we would see
them play against Giannis.

Speaker 4 (56:39):
I thought that would be a really intriguing matchup head
to head.

Speaker 1 (56:42):
You know, they had a couple I think like two
of their next ten or something like that. They still
got Milwaukee. They have had a little bit of an
easy stretch to this schedule. It's very impressive that they're
winning these games. I want to see him do it
against some of the better teams in the East. But
I agree with you, Jason. They're number one in points
in the paint differential. I love that form. Like they're
going to grab a ton of rebounds, They're going to

(57:02):
be staunch inside. This defense swarms, They've got a ton
of long, rangy athletes. It's just how great can this
offense be? Carson and I have talked about it. I
do think I completely agree with you. I think a
trade is on the table. I think they need somebody
that can maybe kick this half court offense up a notch.

Speaker 4 (57:19):
While I don't want them to.

Speaker 1 (57:21):
Sacrifice their defensive identity, but I do think they have
enough personnel in totality where they could give up a
defender for a more offensively slanted piece like a Tyler
Hero or something like that. So I think a trade
is in order for them to kick them up a notch.
But I think they got to be in my top ten.
Like I just think they are.

Speaker 4 (57:37):
Too good of a two way team. And I believe
in Kate.

Speaker 1 (57:40):
I know Kate has his flaws, but as an offensive engine,
as a guy who's going to manufacture great shot quality
for his teammates, play great defense, kill guys.

Speaker 4 (57:49):
In the mid range.

Speaker 1 (57:50):
I like Kate enough of an offensive engine where I
think they've got to be in my top ten. So
I like what the Pistons are cooking, But like you,
if they make a trade, I could see them climbing
a little bit higher on my list.

Speaker 3 (58:01):
The Pistons are like the inverse Lakers to me, and
I'm actually not hiring either one of them, so you know, Jason,
I'm not doing some anti Lakers things. The Pistons have
been the second best regular season team in terms of record,
okay see, and I'm still not very high on them,
and I say they're the inverse Lakers because it's like
with La, I feel like I know what I'm getting
in terms of half court offense right, especially from the Stars,

(58:22):
but I worry about kind of everything else, all of
these areas in terms of some of these margins, right,
them really struggling against some super athletic teams I worry
about on both sides of the ball. Detroit, It's like, well,
I know that they're going to create margin in transition
on the glass with what they do defensively. I know
that athletically they are going to be the tone setters
and they can overwhelm certain teams but I really worry

(58:44):
about their half court offense. That's why I'm still lower
on them. I think there are more balanced teams. What
they're doing defensively is so impressive, and I like Kate.
I think Kate is really good. I do think there's
an element though, where it's like, this offensive situation is
really hard, and so I think we're all impressed by
the volume that he's able to take on. But I
think for Detroit to be like a contender, it would

(59:05):
take a pretty special offensive player to elevate this situation.
And Kate, even though he can't take on this volume
and give you twenty seven and ten, and he's a
great passer and he's such a great mid range score
and it's so pretty at his size with the craft.
He's just got two core limitations to me that keep
him out of those sort of offensive conversations. And it's
how much he struggles to finish at the rim, which

(59:25):
has been a pervasive issue for him throughout his career,
and the lack of consistent volume three point pull up shooting,
where he's really struggled again this year, and he was
brutal in the playoffs last year. Like those are just
two paths to efficient self created offense that he doesn't have.
And so with this sort of mucky spacing around him,
he's having to live in the intermediate game a lot,
and he's not getting that easy stuff else where. He's

(59:47):
getting a line more this year, he's cut down on turnovers.
Kate's playing really well, but I have questions about a
number of offensive players around him in the half court,
and so that's why I'm lower on Detroit. Duran has
been amazing. We'll see if it's Jade and Ivy or
if it is a move like they are a legitimately
good half court offensive player away, like if it is

(01:00:08):
a great movement shooter. I saw somebody throw out Lowry
Markin and obviously that's a big contract, but like that
would be a great fit to me, an elite movement
shooter like that, or another legitimate ball handler with some juice.
And I'm there with Detroit, but right now I'm just
worried about that half court offense.

Speaker 2 (01:00:22):
Yeah, that's why I like Michael Porter Junior. I view
him as basically the discount version of of Lori market
and that's available this year. Carson hitting on the rim
numbers I pulled these numbers yesterday. Out of last year,
out of the eighty three players who attempted at least
three hundred layups, he was eighty second out of eighty
three at fifty two point two percent. Trey Young was

(01:00:44):
the only guy that was worse this year. Out of
the twenty two players to attempt at least one hundred,
he's twenty first out of twenty two. I believe fifty
four percent on layps. Only Karl Anthony Towns has been worse.

Speaker 3 (01:00:56):
I want to say he was four of seventeen in
the restricted area in that Wizard game. Like people are
talking about empty the clip, do what you gotta do
to win, and it's like, I respect how k played
down the stretch of that game, what he did defensively,
you know that volume with that many guys down at
the end of the day, though, that is crazy bad
rim finishing, and he just doesn't have the explosiveness there.
He never has, and the touch is not good as

(01:01:18):
much as you would expect it to be nearly.

Speaker 2 (01:01:20):
Ultimately, like to kind of round that specific topic out,
I am a big believer in the Pistons as a
long term contender. Like if you told me two years
from now, they were going to be like the bonafide
best team in the East, like year and year out
for like a five year stretch or like in that conversation,
I very much believe you. I just think they're like
a year away from being a year away from being

(01:01:41):
like a bona fide type of like perennial games, the.

Speaker 4 (01:01:43):
Bruno Kolow of contenders.

Speaker 3 (01:01:47):
Well, let's not do him like that. I also think
they're clearly a very good regular season team right now,
and like them, winning fifty something games ultimately is not
the concern for me. It is some of these playoff questions, and.

Speaker 2 (01:01:58):
That's usually the path is you start to put together
a good regular season and then you have to piece
it together from there, all right quickly. Number eight the
New York Knicks. To make a long story short, with
New York, I have not seen anything from them this
season to change my belief in what they were last season. Yes,
we've seen the additional emphasis on the transition pushes. Yes

(01:02:21):
we've seen more reps where Jalen Brunson's starting off the
ball or where he's operating as a screener. And yes,
injuries have played roles brun since miss time now Jiannonoboy's
missing time, But ultimately I still feel like their offense
runs into a little bit of a wall as they
run into bigger, more athletic defenses, and on the defensive
end of the floor, I see the same entry points

(01:02:42):
continue to rise to the surface in the form of
Cat and Jalen Brunson as teams can find a way
to break them down. It's just one of those things
where I think they are kind of fundamentally broken at
their foundation in a way that prevents me from being
overly high on them. That said, have to include them
on this list because they're in the East Conference, And
similarly to what we were talking about with the Lakers,

(01:03:02):
after you get off the top tier in the West,
there is no top tier team in the East. Every
one of those teams is pretty substantially flawed. And like, yeah,
there's a version of it where the Knicks run into
the Calves in a second round series and Mitchell Robinson's
healthy and he absolutely destroys Jared Allen on the offensive glass,
and Darius Garland's toe is still banged up and he's
not much of a factor, and Jalen Brunson is a

(01:03:24):
better half court kind of game manager than Donovan Mitchell,
and all of a sudden, the Knicks are in the finals.
Like I absolutely view them as a bona fide contender
in that second tier. I just remain generally underwhelmed by
them compared to some of the optimism coming out of
New York. Carson, where are you at with the Knicks?

Speaker 3 (01:03:41):
You said it, The core is broken, and that's why
I'm never going to be a Knicks believer. The question
is just where do they fall in this range between
them and Detroit? It's so close to me. I like
Detroit more. I like how they're improving. I like the
margin they create in these areas. I like their physicality
and their defense. But I do think like as low
as I can be the Knicks title up side, because
I think as long as they have this defense built

(01:04:03):
around Brunson and Kat, they're going to really struggle on
that side of the ball. What they do offensively does
have to be valued, and I actually think this year
they are better set up offensively to hold up throughout
a playoff run than last year. It's always been their strength,
of course, but I do like the Mike Brown system.
I like there being a little bit more pace, a

(01:04:23):
little bit more ball movement, a little bit more player movement,
mckel taking on a bit more of a playmaking load,
so it's not overwhelmingly Brunson hero ball. Them really emphasizing
getting their three point rate ups, so they're not living
out of the mid range as a team as much.
Does it change the whole picture here? No, does it
change their biggest problem, which is their defense, especially against
a smart, good playoff offense with good process. No, That's

(01:04:46):
why I remain low on them. But they are a
top three offense right now. Kat hasn't even played well,
and so I do think there's a lot of punch
there that has to be acknowledged. And I think even
though they are still going to be very reliant on
Brunson's creat Brunson is a great playoff player. Like the
floor that he consistently sets with his shot making, his
ability to get the free throw line, it is really impressive.

(01:05:07):
And I think that there is again a little bit
more variety in this offense now where I'm a little
higher on them there, but I'm actually even lower on
the knicks than you are. I have them lower in
my contender rankings, So yeah, and kind of putting lipstick
on a pig here. I'm not a fan.

Speaker 1 (01:05:21):
Well, Sin, both of you guys real quick, have you
guys seen the people on I've seen some Knicks fans
clamoring on Twitter for a an Ad Cat trade. Would
you if the MAVs were down for that hypothetically? Would
you be into that? If you're the Knicks.

Speaker 2 (01:05:35):
That's kind of fascinating the idea of putting Cat next
to a guy like Derek Lively. Obviously, the best defense
we've seen with Cat has been alongside Rudy Gobert. Anthony
Davis is certainly a big ceiling razor for the Knicks.
That would that would I'll just flatly say it. If
they pulled that off and Ad stayed healthy, I'd make
them the clear number one team in the East.

Speaker 3 (01:05:56):
I think it would make them significantly better. I think
Ad is a way better basketlayer than Kat, and specifically,
I think he is a better fit in New York.
I think the two man game with him and Brunson
could be more dynamic and being more of like an
actual pick and roll finisher. And I think, I mean,
the defensive difference is just absolutely monumental. There that being said,
that feels like a little bit of a Knicks fan

(01:06:16):
fantasy to me.

Speaker 4 (01:06:17):
Oh for sure, it definitely is.

Speaker 2 (01:06:19):
Yeah, classic, But like you could see, like the idea
there would be that Dallas at this point, you know,
Ad doesn't have much trade value, bilateral Achilles tendon to pathy,
and like literally since the trade he's been nothing but
an injured shell of himself. Like at a certain point
you could look at it as like Dallas could be like,
we're better with Kat, and the Knicks could be like,

(01:06:39):
we're better with Ad, and you could see something like
that materializing. I don't think that's as unreasonable as you
would think.

Speaker 3 (01:06:46):
Yeah, it would be a gamble from the Knicks, even
though clearly Ad is the better talent just because of timeline,
but more so injury. They would have to be looking
in the mirror and saying, we know we're not good
enough as constructed. I don't know if they have the
self awareness to do that. I think they're looking right now.
They're going, ooh, we were in the Eastern Conference finals
last year, and now the Pacers are gone and the
Celtics are gone and it's our conference and I just
don't see it that way at all.

Speaker 2 (01:07:08):
It's the equivalent of the Golden State Warriors making the
Jimmy Butler trade just a last second Hail Mary to
kind of save a build. Which, speaking of which, that
was the final team that I had in my top tier,
my second tier of contenders, and then I have a
pretty substantial drop off from there. I think Golden State's
way better than their record. Their net rating with the

(01:07:28):
big three on the floor has been awesome. I think
this is a textbook example of them just getting absolutely
bludgeoned by the schedule to start the season and then
a bunch of old dudes having you know, basically dead legs,
and that putting even more pressure on inconsistent role players
to come through. I don't view them as some sort
of like, you know, real shot to win the title here.

(01:07:48):
Of course I have them down at nine, but they're
the final team that I have in this tier simply
because I think ultimately, when you face them in a
playoff series, if they are healthy, Jimmy, Draymond and Steph
are a real problem and they have the defense to
put it all together. I have Golden State at night
on my contender list, Carson, where you're at with Golden
state right now.

Speaker 3 (01:08:07):
I've got them a little higher at seven. I think
that they're really good. I think we saw this team
play at such a high level down the stretch last
season twenty two and five after trading for Jimmy, won
a playoff series, and then obviously injuries come back to
get them. I just love the complimentary nature of the roster.
I think they have pretty high ceilings on both sides
of the ball. I think they've still got a top
five offensive player and a top five defensive player and

(01:08:29):
a top twenty five sort of player in Jimmy who
like connects those things really nicely on both sides of
the ball. I love the Big three, like I'm super
high on that as a foundation, and I think all
those guys have played well this year, like some of
the explosions we've gotten from Steph. Obviously, the floor is
lower than it used to be by a lot, but
the ceiling is like every bit as high. Jimmy's been

(01:08:50):
playing well, and I totally agree with you on the
schedule point. I mean, it's just brutal, and they are
like the last team in the league that needs to
be getting hit with this right now as they are
relying on thirty seven year olds like all over the place.
I actually do think I feel a little bitter about
the depth too, Like I'm encouraged on that front. Obviously,
the Kaminga mirage has fallen apart May at rest in peace.

(01:09:12):
The glorious three to four games, it was, oh man,
that was fun. That was fun. But like I do
think that Moody has legitimately improved. I think he's cleaned
up his shot mechanics and is just shooting the shit
out of the ball right now. Pods pretty much is
who he is, but he's been solid overall. Will Richard
I think, has been a really really nice fine for
them as the fifty sixth pick. So like they're just

(01:09:34):
putting together more of these wings, perimeter players, two way
guys with pretty high feel who I like Danthony Melton.
I don't know what's going on with his injury, but
I hope that we see him because I think he's
a really nice fit for this team and like Horford, right,
he's another old guy we haven't seen playing back to backs.
He hasn't been good so far, but I like his
fit here. I just think there's a million reasons to

(01:09:54):
think the Warriors are going to look better later in
the year. Ultimately, I worry about non Steph offense, and
that's why I can't have them as a top five
contender or whatever. Right, if only they had traded Jonathan
Minga for Malik Monk, if only something like that had
been on the table, you know, then I'd feel really
really good about this team. But Steph is doing what
he needs to do offensively. His impact is absolutely absurd,
and I do mostly like how things tie together around him,

(01:10:16):
and I think this team also needs to defend better
in the non Draymond minutes, so they are relying on
their superstars for sure, But I like those superstars. I
like that Big three, and I do think last year,
like there were stretches where it was like, Okay, there's
only three playoff NBA players on this team, and I
don't feel that way this year. I feel like some
of these young guys, these role players, are more legitimate,

(01:10:38):
and it's kind of all it takes because they were
already winning a lot of games last year with some
of those guys, you know, just being like so unreliable.

Speaker 1 (01:10:45):
Yeah, the Warriors are stuck here in this but they're
a seven for me too. They're stuck here barring a trade.
Like I think that they are just stuck in this
like no man's land kind of. They could win a
playoff series, but I can't see them really going on
a run. I do think they need to make that
kind of move for an offensive just a guy can
give him some offensive firepower in the non stuff minutes.

(01:11:05):
It would be nice if he was complimentary and could
play like alongside Steph too, But I think that's the move.
They're just they're missing that piece that would make them
a really, really legitimate contender.

Speaker 4 (01:11:15):
But I like the Warriors a lot.

Speaker 1 (01:11:17):
I just think they need that guy to put them
in real conversations another.

Speaker 2 (01:11:22):
Fun Michael Porter junior potential target type of team. I
just think a guy that could, like, like twice a week,
give them twenty five twenty Who.

Speaker 4 (01:11:29):
Are you flipping? Who are you flipping?

Speaker 3 (01:11:30):
For the defense?

Speaker 2 (01:11:32):
Yeah, big play with no defense exactly what would be
cominga plus? You know, some contract?

Speaker 1 (01:11:36):
You know.

Speaker 2 (01:11:37):
One of the things that I've that has stood out
to me with Golden State here in the early part
of the season is they have really struggled with like
some of the bigger athletes that can get Downhill. We've
seen that in the Portland game, Like they can't guard
any It's like crazy, They're hopeless to guard him. And
that's one of the things where every every Warriors fan
is like, we can't trade Moody, we can't trade Moody,
and I get that, but like, ultimately, if you could
get a legitimate upgrade. One of the things with Moody

(01:11:58):
is he's not Andrew Wiggans. It's like Rudy looks really
good as a point of attack defender up to a
certain point, and then he runs into a type of
guy that he can't guard. And that is the kind
of thing that I've kind of noticed. Same thing goes
with Pods, Like he's just such a really well rounded
player who does all these little things well, but like
ultimately there are certain players that he just can't guard,
and yeah, like that kind of puts a certain limitation

(01:12:19):
on them. But yeah, I am generally higher on Golden
State than the masses right now, and I think people
are trying to bury them too soon.

Speaker 4 (01:12:26):
Here.

Speaker 2 (01:12:27):
One of the big indicators, and I'm so glad you
hit on this, Carson, is Steph's been awesome and ultimately,
when this all comes together, Like that's the thing that
was going to be the final bar that they had
to cross to get to where they want to go.
Is can Steph look like Steph? And he has clearly demonstrated,
like a half dozen times this year that he still
very much has that punch in him, and I thought
he showed it during the Houston series last year as

(01:12:48):
well at stretches down.

Speaker 3 (01:12:50):
The stretch of all of last year. I mean last
thirty games, he was like twenty seven a game on
sixty five percent through shooting. He just totally kicked into
that gear and the fact that he's carrying that over
is so encouraging because last year to start the season,
he did not look like this. Like, I think Jimmy
has shot some life back into him, and I think
it's a great thing. But I do agree with you
on the concerns and specifically them being overwhelmed athletically, like

(01:13:14):
the point in the paint differential game after game, which
obviously part of that is their own lack of paint scoring,
which is significant, but I think they're dead last in
point scoring margin in the paint. They're like minus twelve
per game, so that puts a ceiling on them. Too,
especially as we look at this increasingly huge Western conference
with Denver, with Houston, with Minnesota even who's not at
that level. But there's some concerns with the worries, but

(01:13:37):
there's also some things that they do at a really
high level that I agree with you, I think are
leading people to underappreciate them right now. And you got
to understand the context. Like even when Steph plays, what
are they eight and five like, or maybe they're eight
and six, but they've lost a few games where he's
not even on the floor, which to me, those don't count.
Those aren't even Warriors basketball games of Steph Curry.

Speaker 2 (01:13:58):
For the Orlando gave me in particular, I thought was
another one where it's like, man, they look small. But
also when I watched that game, I was like, they
also look like they have dead legs. Like they I
even thought the Portland game, like, they just look like
they have dead legs. It's going to take them a
week or two to just recover from that brutal schedule
to start the season. And there are a lot of
teams in the NBA after Oklahoma City, pretty much every
team in the NBA after Oklahoma City that would if

(01:14:19):
you were like, they're nine to nine after playing seventeen
games in twenty eight days and five back to backs,
and all like, it's just it's they just succumb to
the schedule a little bit, and that happens. But this
has been awesome. Thank you guys so much for taking
the time to come hang out today and break these
down with me really quickly. Just shout out where you guys,
what work you've been doing lately, and where they our
listeners can find it.

Speaker 3 (01:14:41):
Well. Thank you so much for having us Jason. This
is always a joy, absolutely one of my favorite people
to talk basketball with. You g guys can find us
at nerd sessh everywhere. YouTube. We do a couple of
NBA shows a week. We also do some NFL content.
If you want that it scratched and Jason isn't doing
it for you, that's where you come on over to us.
We've got it all well. We do some trivia stuff,

(01:15:01):
so yeah, YouTube everywhere. If you want to see our
short form content, we're across social everywhere. Just look us
up at nerd sesh. But again, thank you Jason. This
was a lot of fun and happy Thanksgiving and I
hope you enjoy the skiing. That sounds fun.

Speaker 2 (01:15:13):
Thanks Buddy, Yeah, and Logan, it was good to see
you too. I hope both of you guys are doing
really well and I hope you guys enjoy the holidays.
We'll definitely be having you back on in a month
or two or so. Again, everyone, thank you guys so
much for supporting the show. I hope all of you
have an incredible weekend. We would be covering playback. We
will be covering the Mavericks Lakers game on playbacks if
you want to watch Luca continue to torture MAVs fans

(01:15:34):
who can come hang out with us on playback later tonight. Again,
as always, a sincerely appreciate you guys for supporting us
and supporting the show, and we'll see you next week.

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