Reaction: LeBron leads Lakers win, Warriors' Pat Spencer show, Celtics stock up + NBA power rankings

Jason reacts to the Los Angeles Lakers getting a huge win over the Philadelphia 76ers on Sunday behind an incredible game from LeBron James as well as contributions from Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves. Then he discusses Pat Spencer leading the Golden State Warriors to two road wins over the weekend without Steph Curry and Draymond Green, plus the Boston Celtics continuing their hot streak with a win over the Toronto Raptors. Finally as he does every Monday, Jason gives the update in his NBA power rankings.

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:01):
The volume. All right, well, good hoops to night here
at the Vallume, having fun to everybody. Oh ball, if
you guys had an incredible weekend, have a jam pack
show for you guys today. We're gonna be hitting eleven

(00:23):
different teams. Lebron James, shortly after being eviscerated for failing
to reach ten points in a game as it looked
like he was starting to look like he was on
the other side of the cliff, explodes in crunch time
against the Sixers last night, goes for twenty nine points. Basically,
ice is the game, in a game where both Austin
and Luca had nothing going big win for the Lakers

(00:44):
to end their road trip. Are going to lead with
that one. After that, the Boston Celtics got yet another big, controlling,
dominant win on the road against the Toronto Raptors. I
want to dig into some specific reasons why the Celtics
have been so good on offense during this stretch and
what things could look like if they were to make
some sort of aggressive move to try to make a
push within the East this season, which I think is

(01:06):
no longer just a pipe dream but like a legitimate
possibility and arguably the strategy they should have as they
approach this season. After that, the Golden State Warriors get
back to back road wins against the Cleveland Cavaliers and
the Chicago Bulls without Draymond and without Steph Kurt, and
in those wins in the last four games, really we

(01:27):
see the explosion of Pat Spencer off the bench and
then recently in the starting lineup for that group. He's
been having success both within their system and as a
spread pick and role player, which I think is really
informative about the type of player that Golden State has
been missing over the last few years as they've struggled
so much to score without Steph. So I want to

(01:47):
dive into that concept for a little bit that at
the tail end of the show are weekly power rankings
going to be hitting on eight additional teams in that segment,
obviously very brief touches on the Lakers and Celtics as well,
but that's where we'll get to bounce around the rest
of the league. Have a lot of thoughts about several teams,
some thoughts about Minnesota, some thoughts about Oklahoma City, a
lot of stuff I want to get into when we

(02:07):
get to our Power rankings. You guys know the joke
before we get started. Subscribe to Hoops Tonight YouTube channels
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Jackson's doing incredible work on our social media feeds on Twitter, Instagram, Facebook,
and TikTok. Make sure you guys follow us there for
more content throughout the season. Then, if you want to

(02:29):
get mail bag questions into our mail bags, I don't
think we're going to do a mail bag this week.
I think I'm going to end up doing that video
I was telling you guys about where I'm going to
go over all my predictions from the off season and
go through the things that I was right about and
the things that I was wrong about. But about a
week from Friday, we'll have our next mail bag. If
you guys want to get questions into that mail bag,
just make sure you drop them in our full episodes

(02:51):
on YouTube in the comments right mail bag colon. Write
your question. We'll get to them a week from Friday.
All right, let's talk some basketball. The Lakers continued their
season long trend, this really bizarre trend where they've been
much better in second halves than they've been in first halves,
as they kind of just messed around with Philly and
you know, never let themselves get blown out like they

(03:13):
went down double figures. They kind of hovered in that
eight to nine, ten point range, but they would just
keep going on these little runs to cut it to three,
to cut it to four, to cut it to five,
to stay attached. And then they came out in the
third quarter with one of their strongest defensive halves of
the season, excellent help in rotation on drives. Lebron and
Luca in particular were doing a good job showing bodies

(03:34):
at the rim on drives, forcing Philly to kick out
to some of their lesser shooters. I thought DeAndre Ayton
was a huge factor defensively in the second half, especially
down the stretch. He had three massive plays at the
rim in defense in crunch time. He had a block
on VJ. Edgecomb. He had a play where he where
Tyrus Maxey was driving past Jake Laavia and he ended

(03:57):
up settling for a really bad floater because Ayton was
strong positioned right between him and the rim. And then
he had a steal on a play where Max he
was trying to throw it back to a popper and
pick and pop. Ayton was just big with his arms
there and he ended up getting a steal. His size
was just imposing for Philly around the rim, and his
help situations really good defensive half for eighton And that's

(04:17):
been the big thing that stood out to me with
him is like he's been somewhat inconsistent with his effort,
somewhat inconsistent with his focused possession to possession, but like
pretty consistently when they need him in like a big
game or in a big spot late, he is just
in the right spot and he's huge, and he's athletic,
and he's been a big layer to this Laker defense,
which has been consistently very good in crunch time and

(04:39):
very good at the end of games when they've needed
to generate the separation to win. The Lakers logged a
one oh four defensive rating in the second half of
this game as they took control and Lebron was obviously
great down the stretch, which we'll get to in a
minute on offense, but he actually started the second half.
He was involved throughout that second half in a variet

(05:00):
of different ways. He started the second half curling off
of off ball action and kind of getting down into
the short range for a little right shoulder fade aways.
He started the third quarter with a couple of those,
and then at the start of the fourth quarter ran
a ton of that classic two man game with Austin
Reeves in pick and roll, this time with him as
a screener. We've seen it both ways, Austin screening for

(05:20):
Lebron and with Lebron screening for Austin. A lot of
Lebron screening for Austin to start the fourth quarter, and
they were just meeting Austin at the level, which kept
getting Lebron in the pocket and catches it in the pocket,
drives lob for Aden dunk, catches it in the pocket,
drives right handed layup off the glass, just punishing the
Sixers for showing on Austin at the level. There's another

(05:43):
one where the Sixers were sick of letting Lebron get
in the pocket, so they switched it they dump it
to Lebron in the post, Ruey hatcha Mura batcuts Quentin
Grimes on the baseline, gets a little short jump shot
off of Lebron. They were punishing the Sixers with that
Lebron Austin two man game with Lebron functioning as the screener.
This is a consistent thing that I want to kind
of I want to come back to in a minute.

(06:05):
But most of this offense, off ball action to start
the third quarter, inverted action or not inverted, excuse me,
two man game as the screener with Austin to start
the fourth quarter, and then down the stretch he closed
the game by being the play finisher in Luka Doncic's
pick and rolls. Take that set that aside for a second,
because I want to come back to that when we
talk about Lebron's turnovers, which had been at a career

(06:26):
low this season, which I think is really fascinating. We'll
get into that in just a minute. But the most
important distinction between this Lebron silencer put the crowd on
his hand, a crown on his head, like big celebration
after dominating a game in crunch time. This particular instant
compared to all of the previous times in his career.

(06:47):
Is once again, it was not him being like, give
me the ball, Austin and Luca go stand over there.
I'm going to do my thing. It was all in
the action off of Lebron in Austin or off of
lou Uah and Austin. In that early fourth quarter run,
it's all him being Draymond Green off of Austin. Right
that closing run with Luca, He's working off the left

(07:10):
wing when Luca's getting ball screens and punishing Paul George
for tagging the roller. One time, Luca gets kind of blitzed,
he dumps it over the top to Ayton, Paul George
tags him, swing to Lebron on the left wing, knocks
down a three. There was another one where that same
sort of action happened, but Paul George came to Ayton earlier,

(07:30):
so Luca ends up pitching it back directly to Lebron
on the wing. He knocks down the three. There was
even one if you guys, if you saw down the stretch,
there was that sequence where the Lakers kind of fell
apart on offense and in that sequence the blitz was
causing problems for Luca. He ended up turning the ball
over on a pitch back to eight, and he was

(07:50):
struggling with the Blitz there down the stretch, so they
just had Lebron set the screen and then the Blitz comes.
Lebron pops out of the Blitz, Luca hit him. He
hits the three at the top of the key. So
Lebron in all of those sequences in the fourth quarter
where he was scoring, it was all off of the
attention that Austin and Luca were drawing. He was operating

(08:12):
as the play finisher, and then the game icing possession.
The one little one on one move that Lebron hit,
there was a very specific sequence that led to that happening. Right,
Luca and Austin look to attack four times in a
row before Lebron hits the three. Austin drives on Embeid,
misses a scoop shot leap, Austin drives on Paul, George

(08:34):
gets good separation on the little left shoulder fade away,
leaves it short. He was out of rhythm all night.
Luca misses a step back three. Luca had the turnover
against the Blitz where he pitched it back against Ayton.
Then Lebron hits the three out of the blitz. So,
looking at that situation, Austin and Luca were both in

(08:54):
terrible rhythm. They were twelve for forty from the field
between the two of them. They had both just tried
to assert themselves a couple possessions in a row and
both of them failed. Lebron was clearly in better rhythm.
So the three guys on the floor all kind of
naturally felt that situation out and they go, hey, let's

(09:15):
run the Luca Lebron ball screen again to see if
they blitz. They don't. They switch because Lebron had been
burning that coverage, so they switch. Luca reads the situation
and goes, my jumpers off, Austin's jumpers off, Lebron's hit
a bunch in a row. Let's just go to Lebron
tosses the ball to Lebron against Quinton Grimes. There on

(09:38):
the left elbow, left elbow extended out above the break,
He faces up, hits a hard dribble move to his left,
gets good separation on a step back, and knocks down
the jump shot. That basically ice is the game, and
that's why, like one of the main reasons why it's
so silly to talk about things like, well, who's gonna
get the last shot with this group? When you're talking
about multiple stars, that sort of thing ends to naturally

(10:01):
work itself out when you have smart basketball players, who's
in the best rhythm, who's got the best defensive matchup?
How are they defending the action? The Lakers were trying
to play through Luca and Austin the fourth quarter, the
Sixers were defending it in a way that was forcing
Lebron to beat them on roles, on pops spacing from

(10:23):
the wing when Ayton was rolling. Then when Austin and
Luca did get looks for themselves, they were missing because
they were a bit out of rhythm. So things naturally
lended themselves to Lebron being the scorer down the stretch.
And that's the luxury of having your third best player,
that you be a guy who made an All NBA

(10:44):
team last year. And Lebron talked about this after the game.
He basically said, I'm gonna do whatever, Like whatever the
game calls for for me, I'm gonna do. Next game
might not be a Lebron's scoring type of game. Maybe
Austin's in better rhythm. Maybe Luca moves off the ball
in crunch time. These things, again, they tend to naturally

(11:04):
work themselves out as long as you have really smart
basketball players at the helm of your team, and they'll
figure it out when that situation comes up, they'll figure
it out naturally. They'll know who to play play through,
and ultimately having three of those dudes is a luxury.
A couple of quick, small things with Lebron that I
want to hit. First of all, Lebron is a screener
on Luca. You know, we're not going to see a

(11:26):
ton of that because they're going to switch it the
majority of the time. But in situations where they identify
that Luca is getting blitzed all of a sudden, it
makes a ton of sense, right, So if the blitz
is coming, then the switch is not a factor. Lebron's
gonna get open. And I love him being the first
passer on that four on three, So I thought it
was really fascinating that on the blitz where Luca turned

(11:49):
it over, it was with Ayton and there was a
miscommunication between eight and Luca where eighton kind of short
rolled to the foul line and Luca thought he was
gonna pop. Probably a batteriad from Luca, because I don't
the Gaton's popped once a single time this year, but
Luca ends up throwing the ball out of bounds. The
adjustment the Lakers make is they go sixers are blitzing,
Let's have Lebron set the screen. Let's have Lebron be

(12:11):
the first guy to make the read. I think that's
an interesting way to use Lebron in these games, when
Lucas starts getting blitzed as soon as the coverage comes
down from the head coach on the other team where
blitzing Luca start using Lebron as a screener. That's when
you can start to unlock him at the beginning of
those four on threes as a score or as a
red maker. Secondly, Lebron's turnovers. I've been really fascinated by

(12:33):
how little Lebron is turning the basketball over this year.
He's averaging seven point six assists per game, which is
just a touch below where he was last year. He
was at eight point two last year, seven point six
this year, So just a small decrease year over year,
less than ten percent decrease. Year every year and his
assists volume, but he's averaging one point nine turnovers per game.

(12:53):
That's half of what he averaged last year. And I
think the reason for that is he's not dealing with
the same kind of mental fatigue that he dealt with
in years past that comes from high usage. This is
what is happening with Luca. Luca's turnovers are almost always
just like, Okay, it's like the twentieth ball screen I've
run in this half and I'm just making a sloppy

(13:17):
read because my brain is just fatigued from the sheer
volume of initiation that I have to do. That's what
you're seeing with Luca, and that's what you saw in
years past with Lebron. But Lebron's usage rate is eight
percent lower than it was last year, so those like
mental fatigue turnovers are not a factor anymore. In fact,

(13:40):
he's getting the ball so much less often that when
he does get it, you can see Lebron is laser
focused every time he gets a touch to capitalize on
that opportunity because he knows he's not going to get
as many that high assist percentage relative to the volume
that he has and the low turnovers are actually making

(14:02):
Lebron a very efficient shot creator in the half court.
This year, when he's had his opportunities, he's run twenty
five pick and rolls, twenty ISOs, and twenty eight post
ups this year including passes, so seventy three possessions and
seven games. That's about ten times a game. Last year
that number was thirteen hundred and ninety nine and seventy games,
or about twenty times per game. So he's initiating action

(14:26):
as the primary ball handler about half as often as
he did last year. But in those possessions he's been
surgically efficient. One point one to two points per pick
and roll including passes, one point one to zero points
per ISO including passes, one point two five points per
post up including passes. Those are all in the eightieth

(14:48):
percentile or better according to Synergy. So like you're seeing
a situation where he's being relied on an offense less often.
So when he has the ball, he's laser folks guest
and he's super efficient and it's been a big boost
to this offense. And last thing I'll say about Lebron
before we move on, he's looked far and away like

(15:08):
the most explosive version of himself that we've seen all
season in that game, And for some reason, what's bothered
me with the way I've seen his athleticism discussed by
people is people are looking at it as like the
result of him wearing down over decades of basketball, and
that's not what's happening at all. He's not wearing down.
He's ramping up. And yes, at his age, ramping up

(15:32):
will take a lot longer, and the question will be
where will he plateau when he's finished ramping up, and
when he gets there, will he be able to stay healthy?
And I don't know, but the last time he ramped
up last year in January and February, he literally looked
like one of the top tier superstars in the league,

(15:53):
which is why he was sixth and MVP voting. Now,
will he get to that level again? There's certainly no
reason to think he can't, but it's obviously less likely
than it was last year. However, it is still a possibility.
I think he's gonna get pretty close to that all
NBA level at some point in the next month or so.

(16:14):
And as far as the injury risk goes, he's running
half as much action in the half court as he
did last year. He's spotting up more than ever. He's
literally playing the fewest minutes per game out of any
season in his entire career. He's not playing back to
backs at least until he's finished ramping up. The Lakers

(16:34):
are doing everything they can to minimize that risk. So,
I mean, as far as it goes with Lebron and
his athleticism, like he's on the way up, We'll see
what level he can get to. We'll see if he
can stay there. But I think it's ridiculous to just
assume the guy we saw in Toronto is just the
new reality for Lebron. It's not. He's ramping up right now.

(16:54):
Nice response on the road ship from the Lakers after
that Phoenix loss. You'd beat two Eastern Conference playoff teams
in their bill. You lose a tough back to back
against a red hot Celtics team that's just been cutting
everybody to pieces, and Luca and Lebron were out of
the lineup in that game. Obviously, Lakers on the tail
end of a back to back, tough game in Toronto.
I want to credit the Celtics there too. I thought
they just played awesome we're gonna talk about them in
a minute, but overall, this road trip was the type

(17:17):
of response you expect from a dead serious basketball team
that has goals to win a championship. I don't know
if the Lakers are as good as the Houston Denver tier,
yet I want to see them look better against some
of these bigger and more physical defenses. This week's games
against San Antonio and potentially Oklahoma City will be an
excellent next test for them. I also still think they

(17:39):
need to trade for a starting, starting small forward. But
in terms of the controllables, the checkpoints in that locker room,
they are meeting every single one of them. So far.
They have great camaraderie and chemistry. The vibes are excellent
around this team. They're ten and three on the road.
That's always a strong indicator for a dead serious team.
They are yet to lose two basketball games in a row.

(18:00):
That's always a strong indicator. They have a winning record
against teams that are five hundred or better. Really, the
only thing that's missing is that signature win. They need
to go against one of the top tier contenders in
this league, Houston Denver, OKC, and they need to beat them.
To show that they can, and the first time did
not go well against Oklahoma City, right, But they'll have

(18:23):
their second chance this week if they can take care
of San Antonio. And by the way, San Antonio is
no slouch. That game on Wednesday is gonna be a
tough one. Quick a little rundown. I should have done
this off the top of the show, but our schedule
for this week is gonna be a little funky because
of the N Season Tournament. We have today's show today,
there is no show tomorrow because we're gonna be working
this weekend for the N Season Tournament. On Wednesday, we
will be waking up in the morning to cover the

(18:45):
Tuesday night in season tournament games. Those will be on
Wednesday morning. Wednesday Night will be going live after the
final buzzer of Lakers Spurs to cover that as well
as the thunder Sun's game, so we'll go twice on Wednesday.
We will have no show on Thursday. On Friday, we'll
have that video coming out in the morning that's going
to be that breakdown of all my predictions from the

(19:06):
off season and which ones have gone right versus which
ones have gone wrong. And then Saturday night, after the
n Season tournament semi final games will be going live
that evening to break down hopefully what will be a
really fun show down between the Lakers and the Thunder
in what I think will be a much better showing
from the Lakers in that game and potentially an opportunity

(19:26):
for the Thunder to shut all that shit down in
emphatic fashion. So again twice on Wednesday, Friday morning, and
then Saturday night. Those are the next four Hoops Tonight
shows this week. Just so you guys know what the
n season tournament schedule. Today's show is brought to you
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(21:16):
New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee or Virginia. All right, let's move
on to the Boston Celtics. I watched most of the
Celtics big win in Toronto yesterday, and I find myself
wanting to buy all of the Celtic stock right now.
I've been underwhelmed by most of the East teams this
year outside of Detroit. Detroit is a real team. They

(21:37):
deserve to be viewed as the favorites in the East
right now. They're dominating in crunch time. Kay Cunningham has
been unbelievable. They've got a bunch of guys that are
making shots and getting big offensive rebounds in the clutch.
We're gonna talk about Detroit when we get to our
power rankings, but Cleveland has been super disappointing. Every time
I start to believe in the Knicks, they drop a
game like they did against Boston, where all of the
same weaknesses from the last few years are on display.

(21:59):
Orlando's up and down and they can't seem to stay healthy.
Milwaukee has fallen off. The East feels very open, and
this surge from Boston has me feeling as though they
have a legitimate chance to win this conference. They've won
five in a row. They're ten and two in their
last twelve. In that twelve game span, they have a
one twenty nine offensive rating, playing some of the best

(22:21):
offense in the Joe Mizula era. We're gonna get to
that in a second nineteenth. In defense that have won
sixteen defensive rating, but even that's complicated because it has
to do with their center vers centerless looks, which we'll
talk about in a minute. The offense is just cooking
everyone right now. In their last four games, in particular,
just this last four games, they're already one to thirty

(22:41):
seven offensive rating. Dalen Brown has been just masterful as
their lead shot creator, doing an awesome impersonation of what
Jason Tatum did last year, just like being very deliberate
about which matchups he's attacking, abusing those matchups one on one,
and then every single time the defense reacts to him
making the appropriate kickout reads. I've been super impressed by

(23:03):
his drives over the course of the last ten games,
in particular his volume of attacks to the basket have
gone up to about five makes per game at the rim,
which is about twenty five percent up from where he
was to start the season. He's been great at hitting
those natural angles that exist in the offense, like catching
on the wing when a dude's closing out at his shoulder,

(23:23):
he rips the opposite way. When a team is shading
him in a direction, he'll just attack that angle and
he'll come downhill with so much force that he just
blows through a guy's shoulder and he's getting another layup.
All the kickouts that he's making in those rim pressuring situations,
and then both Pritchard and White have been in great
grooves and pick and roll. The Celtics are running a

(23:44):
lot of stack where they're having one of those dudes
backscreen for the role man as they're getting downhill. They're
hitting threes off of those screens off the dribble. Derek
White has got his pull up three going like crazy
right now. On those kickbacks they're hitting them. And then
their spot up efficiencies through the roof one seventeen offen
of rating and spot ups against Toronto one seventy offensive
rating in spot ups against the Lakers. They shot insanely

(24:05):
well in that game one twenty seven offensive rating and
spot ups against Washington, won thirteen against New York, and
won twenty two against Cleveland, just literally lighting teams up
on kickouts in those spot up situations. Set Jason Tatum
and his injury aside for a second. This is some
of the best offense that this team has played in
this decade, and a lot of it has to do

(24:27):
with continuity, Like they're playing the same style that they
did with Jason Tatum, and so a lot of these
guys have actually been here a long time and they're
getting very familiar with the system. They're getting very similar
shots to what they've been getting in recent years, and
so there's a level of comfort that they're reaching in
the offense as a group that is manifesting in this
hot stretch of offense that we've seen from them. We

(24:49):
talked last week about their offensive rebounding. I'm not going
to go into that today because we did a deep
dive last week. Jackson broke it out for us in
a clipse. So if you look on our YouTube feed
and you find the video that talks about Jaylen Brown
leveling up, if you click on that one, we talk
about their offensive rebounding, but the short version is the
Celtics are winning the second chance points battle despite being
an awful defensive rebounding team, and it's because they turn
their offensive rebounds into easy putbacks while swarming the opponent

(25:13):
bigs whenever they get offensive rebounds on them. And yes,
with the defense, the numbers are more complicated than they appear.
They've been a below average defense in the aggregate over
these twelve games, but with Cada on the floor, they've
been great. A one oh seven defensive rating in Cada's
minutes over that twelve game span. That's an excellent number,
and where they defended poorly is in their centerless looks.

(25:36):
But in those center lists looks they're scoring at such
an insane rate that they're dominating those minutes. They have
a one to forty one offensive rating in their centerless
looks this season, plus sixteen points per one hundred possessions.
And again, ultimately, whenever they need to get stops for
whatever reason, their offense cool down they want to win
in more of a slugfest type of fashion, they can

(25:57):
just go to Kada and they've been scoring just in
the CATA lineups this year. If this team can get
Jason Tatum back, I mean, let's really look at it,
Like Jalen Brown's better than he's ever been. Pritchard and
White are both in plenty of a groove. They look
more or less what they were last year, if not
a little better. In these last couple of weeks. You

(26:19):
have a level of depth at the guard position with
Anferny Simons. Now we'll see if that ends up being
the piece they use to try to balance the roster
a little bit. But like they look as good on
the perimeter as ever. With that, you know, obviously removing
Jason Tatum from the equation. The dirty little secret is
like Christaps Porzingis and Drew Holliday both can't stay healthy

(26:40):
this year. The Celtics seem to have gotten off of
them just in time. I'd argue Nimi Kita and Jordan
Walsh have been like better rotation players flat out this
year in the NBA than Porzingis and Holiday have been.
Jordan Walsh has blossomed into one of the best perimeter
defenders in the NBA this season. He did probably the

(27:00):
best job I've ever seen on Austin Reeves. You guys know,
I root for the Lakers. I've watched the majority of
Austin Reeves' games in his career, the vast majority of them.
I've never seen somebody make Austin look as uncomfortable as
he looked in that first quarter against Jordan Walsh, getting
blocked on back pressure, fumbling the basketball everywhere, turnovers, missshots.

(27:21):
Jordan had him in a box to start that game.
Jordan has been a godsend for them as a point
of attack defender, as a corner crasher. On the offensive end,
He's hitting threes, he's running the floor in transition. He's
like just an awesome rotation player that they found. Nimi
Keita looks like a legitimately perfectly fine starting center in

(27:41):
this league. You bring Jason Tatum back, you convert Anthony
Simon's contract into another rotation level center, this could easily
be the best team in the Eastern Conference. That seemed
like an insane thing to say before the start of
the season, but it's not just a pipe dream any more.
It's like a it's a completely legitimate outcome, And frankly,

(28:06):
if I'm Brad Stevens, I'm looking at this as an
opportunity this season in a wide open Eastern Conference. That's
how good I think this team is. And who the
hell knows what happens out West, whoever comes out of
that bloodbath could be beat the shit even Oka. See,
there's an opportunity here for Boston. There's there's a continuity
with their core players. You don't think Tatum's Tatum's I

(28:30):
gotta struggle when he comes back to this is this
is easy basketball for him. They have so much continuity
now and it's manifesting in just a machine on both
ends of the floor. Joe Missoula has them achieving margin
where they have no business achieving margin. It's just a really,
really good basketball team. And I'm just buying all the

(28:51):
Celtic stock right now. The Warriors have a two and
zero weekend without Draymond or Steph Curry, a couple of
huge road wins, and it's Cleveland and Chicago. Those are
not easy teams to beat on the road, especially with
the level of talent they had available to them. And
it's been a product of a couple things. One, they've
put together two of their best defensive performances of the season,
kind of a blast from the pass from the team

(29:13):
we saw back in October, right, and then two they
found a much needed source of offense in Pat Spencer.
And to be clear, it's not all Pat Spencer. Jimmy
came back and had a great game against Chicago. Podds
finally hit some threes and got some rhythm in the
Chicago game. Quinton Post has been a revelation as a
stretch big for them. He's turned into like he's just

(29:34):
way better than he was last year. He's like a legitimate,
very good rotation center player stretch five for this Warriors team.
He's basically been everything they hoped Al Horford would be,
like very very good a season from Quinton Post this year.
But I want to zoom in on Pat Spencer for
a minute because I think specifically the way he's been
dominating these games on offense is super interesting and it's

(29:55):
informative for what this team needs. First. In the numbers
four games, Pat is averaging sixteen points and six assists
per game, which is one point eight turnovers. The shooting
is a little ridiculous and will probably come down to earth,
like he shoots seventy five percent from three in that
span fifty nine percent from the field. The shot creation
data is also off the charts. He's run one hundred
and one ball screens this season and generated one hundred

(30:17):
and twenty one points of one twenty offensive rating, turning
it over just six percent of the time when he
runs a pick and roll that specifically that pick and
roll stat That's the super informative part what Pat Spencer
is bringing to the Warriors in the last week that
Brandon Pajemski can't bring, that Jonathan Kaminga can't bring is

(30:39):
the ability to both play within the Warriors system and
run spread pick and roll effectively. So like in the system,
he knows how to relocate, he knows how to cut
off the ball when he gets cut turning downhill in
a off ball screen, or when he cuts back door
and he catches in the middle of the floor, he
knows the next ro in that progression. So he's perfectly

(31:03):
fine within the system. But when things break down and
they need to run a ball screen off the top
with quintin post, to run a ball screen with Trace Jackson, Davis,
whoever it is, He's been very good at that specific
form of shot creation. And the core piece of this
is he's very good at getting dribble penetration out of

(31:26):
those ball screens and actually getting both feet and the paint.
He sets his man up for screens, well, he's good
at getting his man caught on the screens. That gets
him angles to actually get downhill once he gets into
the paint. In those actions, the defense reacts in a
certain way, and that's where his versatility comes into the equation.
In the action, he can score from all three levels.

(31:48):
He can hit a pull up three, he can hit
a pull up two like in the Philly game. He
can draw little fouls in the mid range when you're
back pressuring him too hard. He can get to the
basket for these like nifty why scoop shots. He hit
a bunch of right handed scoop shots last week. He
had a lefty one in the Bulls game. He's shooting
seventeen for thirty two on shot attempts, his own personal

(32:11):
shot attempts out of pick and roll. So he's a
threat to score at all three levels. But then from
there he can also make all the reads. He can
hit Quinton Post on the pick and pop on the kickback.
He can hit Tray Jackson Davis in the pocket on
the roll. If they tag the roller, he can make
the skip passes, he can beat nail help with swing passes.
He's quick at making the reads when the defense reacts,

(32:32):
and the defense reacts because he can score the basketball,
and when they don't, he's scoring it. And again, it's
all foundationally from the fact that he can get downhill
and he can get into the paint. He just has
a natural gift for setting his man up for screens
and the body position in the natural angles that exist
for drives, and he just hits those gaps and makes

(32:54):
all the appropriate reads when he gets there. So he's
provided a much needed outlet for a war offense that
can't generate offense right now with Steph off the floor
until this Pat Spencer development for them, they can run
Pat Spencer pick and roll when the offense breaks down,
and they're getting good offense out of it every single time. Again,

(33:15):
a one to twenty offensive rating in those Pat Spencer
ball screens. Here's why it's super important and informative about
the Warriors. Again, I've been specifically calling for this type
of player for Golden State for years. Once again this season.
Last year, Steph on the floor one twenty offensive rating,
despite the void of offensive talent on the roster, falls

(33:38):
off a cliff when STEP's off the floor. This season, again,
Steph on the floor one nineteen point three offensive rating
despite the lack of offensive talent craters. When he's off
the floor. They can score just fine with Steph. It's
when he's not on the floor that they struggle. And
it's not even just fine with Steph. It's elite. They're
an elite offense when Steph's on the floor. They just

(33:59):
have to figure out how to score more effectively in
these minutes when Steps off. Even when Jimmy's on, it's
been a problem. Pat has been a representation of exactly
what they need, a guard who can play in the
system with Steph. But it can also be like give
me the ball spread the floor comes at a ball

(34:19):
screen for me and I can get hot and carry
our offense for like five minutes. That's what Jordan Poole
was for this team. That's what I envisioned a guy
like Malik Monk being for this team. Maybe it ends
up being Pat. Now, it's way too small of a
sample size for Pat. It's been two it's been like
four games and he's shooting seventy five percent from three right,

(34:42):
so we'll see if you have plenty of time, you're
not about to make a move right this second r
Johnathan Comick, it can't even be traded. I don't think
it's till January fifteenth. So by the time you get
to February, if Pat is still doing this, then great,
Pat's that guy for you. Steph will come back into
the fold. He'll get to demonstrate if he can do
it in that system. I'm a little skeptical it's just

(35:02):
been too small of a sample size. But if he
cools down and he's not quite ready for that level
of workload and a large sample yet, and he's better
just being another option for you off the bench. Let
this be a lesson for the Warriors' front office. This
offense has always been at its best, even going back
to the k D days and going back to the
Livingston Barbosa days, they've been at their best when they

(35:26):
had a counter to their system in the form of
a real offensive weapon that can play in more of
a brute force style. Leandro Barbosa just beaten dudes off
the dribble. Forget about the system. You can't keep Leo
in front. Forget about the system. Sean Livingston gets to
the mid range and he can he can hit a

(35:46):
fade away over both shoulders. Forget about the system. Kevin
Durant is the best freaking scorer of all time. Forget
about the system. Jordan Poole's going to come in for
five minutes in a finals game and just spaz out
and score in high pick and roll and control the offense.
That has been the counter to the Steph system every

(36:09):
time they've been a championship level team. And that's why
I wouldn't roll my eyes at Malik Monk or the
next Molik Monk type of player that becomes available in
a potential Jonathan Minga deal as we get further into
the season. All right, let's get into our power rankings
once again. All of our lines are presented by hard

(36:30):
rock Bet. Number ten. The Orlando Magic currently plus three
thousand to win the title on hard rock Bet. Just
a brutal week from a Magic team that had been
playing super well. First, they lose a game to San
Antonio on a very tough foul call on Jonathan Isaac,

(36:50):
probably the right call, but just a really tough one.
In that spot to lose a game. Then they get
a huge win against the Heat, a monster defensive sequence
down the stretch where they denied everyone so well that
the Heat had to call time out to get the
ball in bounds. Then they finally do get the ball
in bounds, but they deny everyone super well again and
Miami has to lean on this stupid bam out of
bio heave at the buzzer that has no chance. Really

(37:11):
good defensive performance in a win against the Heat, and
then they lose to New York and a game where
Franz Wagner goes down with this apparent knee injury got
an MRI last night. I haven't heard anything about the
results yet, so we'll see, but eerily reminiscent of last
year where Palo finally gets healthy and then Frans gets
Franz gets hurt, Like they just can't have both of
those dudes healthy and on the floor at the same time.
It's just been bad luck. Yesterday, Sam Vessini and I

(37:33):
I went on his show, The Game Theory podcast yesterday
and we did a deep dive on the magic and
what a potential Palo for Giannis swap could look like.
Mainly looking at this summer, just something to keep in mind.
I want you guys to go check that out. I
tweeted the link out, so we go to my Twitter
page at underscore json lt you can find the link
to that page that show I did with Sam Vassini.

(37:54):
But I'm just fascinated. It's been by far my favorite
Giannis trade for both sides is the Magic this summer,
just turning Paalo into Giannis. I think it foundationally sets
up the Bucks for the future and overnight just makes
the Orlando Magic the top tier contender in the Eastern Conference.
Like they just be clearly far and away best team
in the East, easily puncher's chance to win the title

(38:16):
against whoever comes out of the West. It's just it's
my favorite Giannis trade right now. Number nine the San
Antonio Spurs plus four thousand to win the title according
to hard Rock Bet two in one week, couple of
nice wins against the red hot Grizzlies team as well
as the Orlando Magic tough loss in Cleveland where their
offense just fell apart in the third quarter. They just
completely lost control of that game in like ten minutes.
But I'm actually higher on the Spurs than I've ever been.

(38:39):
I'm really bullish about how good their offense has been
under Deeron Fox, who's been fantastic ever since that Warriors nightmare.
Devin Vessel continues to shoot the absolute shit out of
the basketball. Keldon Johnson and Jeremy Sohan have provided like
more of like a rim pressure bullyball element to their offense.
Dylan Harper has been killing teams with his drives. Memphis

(39:00):
and Minnesota games were awesome demonstrations of Dylan's ability to
pressure the rim. Luke Cornett has been great, hopefully his ankles. Okay.
I keep thinking if they can somehow combine the offensive
success they've had under Deer and Fox with the defensive
success they've had under Wemby, this suddenly becomes a real
threat in the Western Conference. Easily the team I was

(39:22):
most wrong about this season. I have them, when healthy
with Wemby in the mix as firmly in that second
tier of Western Conference teams with the Lakers and the Timberwolves.
I mean it's like, Okay, see clearly the top above
Houston and Denver, maybe even a third tier, maybe even
just in a tier by themselves. Then Houston Denver then Lakers, Wolves,

(39:43):
Spurs in whatever order. That's kind of how I see
the East or the West shaking out to this point.
Number eight the Boston Celtics plus four thousand to win
the title on hard Rock Bet. We hit them for
a full segment earlier in the show, so I'm not
gonna stay too long here, But they are playing some
of the best off defense they've played in the Joe
Missoula era. They're getting plenty of stops with Nimi Kada
on the floor. I think there are returns Jason Tatum

(40:06):
as well as a true center. Like a trade for
a center, not necessarily does it. I think Kate is
fine as a starter. I just think they need another
player of that ilk in their rotation so that they
can potentially go to a center forty eight minutes if
they have to for a specific matchup. If they get
Jason Tatum Mack and they get a center in the trade,
maybe for an Anthony Simons type of deal, that's when
I think they've become a legitimate threat to make the

(40:26):
NBA Finals this season, which seemed completely impossible when Jayson
Tatum went down in a heap last year against the Knicks.
Number seven, the Minnesota Timberwolves currently plus twenty two point
fifty to win the title on hard Rock Bet, winners
of five in a row after beating the Clippers on Saturday.
Their offense is just in a ridiculous groove right now.
They have a one twenty four point four offensive rating

(40:47):
in their five game streak. Anthony Edwards has gone up
a massive level as a rim finisher this year. He's
getting there more often than he did last year, and
he's finishing at by far the best rate of his
career sixty eight percent at the rim as Anthony Edwards
this year fueled by him making a much higher percentage
of his layups than he has in previous seasons in

(41:08):
his career. He's just so much better at slowing down
and like letting things develop on his drives. He used
to just be shot out of a cannon every time
and he would miss layups as he's just going full
speed downhill into traffic. Now he's like hitting a hesitation
dribble in the middle of the floor, kind of waiting
to see how the defense to react, seeing where the
seam is before he hits it, or he'll hit a

(41:31):
slow down step to wait for a defender to run
by him or for a rim protector to jump and
then come back to the ground. He's just taken a
leap with his rim reads that has made him so
much more effective at the basket. And it's flying under
the radar because of how good shay Luka, Jannis and
Jokic have been. But Ant has also taken a big
leap this year and is scoring and efficiency, and his

(41:52):
volume and efficiency have both gone up a significant chunk.
You combine that with Jane McDaniels, who's taken a leap
on offense that really started the playoffs last year. Julius
Randall's been awesome. Nas Reed's been excellent. He was great
in that Clippers game. Dante de Vincenzo's shooting the ball
really well. Their offense is cooking, and yeah, their defense
has left a lot to be desired through inconsistent effort

(42:13):
and some of their specific lineups that struggled to guard.
But they're top seven in defense in both fourth quarters
and in clutch situations, so they've still shown the ability
to hit that extra gear when they need to to
win games. I think we're all under rating Minnesota again
this year. I view them as every bit the Punchers
chance threat that they were to win the title in
each of the last two seasons, as they demonstrated in

(42:36):
their Western Conference Finals runs number six. The Houston Rockets
currently plus one thousand to win the title on hard
Rock Bet two and two week took a tough loss
in Utah where they were super sloppy down the stretch.
They couldn't stop fouling. They had a possession where I
think they committed five fouls before getting the ball back
in crunch time. Some miss layups and turnovers on the
other end in that one too, Shangun missed a couple

(42:57):
of bunnies. Just a bad night. It happens in the NBA.
Whatever they BEATU Recremento had a super impressive win against
this very good Suns team. Shangun was out with an
illness and a men Thompson and kd just were awesome
from start to finish. They controlled the Suns from the start.
That was a really good win for them. Then they
lost a tough game on the road in Dallas, where
I think they really felt the loss of Shangun and
the MAVs. They're playing good basketball. I know they got

(43:18):
their buts kicked by OKC, but they've won most of
their games around that, which is again a testament to
just how good Oklahoma City is. But that's a tough
one to win on the road without shangu and they
ended up dropping that one. Kadi and a Men Thompson
last week fifty eight points, twelve rebounds and tennis sis
per game between the two. Just a really fun give
and take to watch them with Shangoon out of the lineup.

(43:40):
A light schedule over the next two weeks, but a
tough one, A light in terms of volume I ME
and they only have five games total in the next
fourteen days, which is wild. They have played the fewest
games in the league so far, only twenty one, but
they also play only five times in the next fourteen days.
It's kind of a bizarre set, but two games on

(44:01):
the road against Denver in that set, so a couple
of fun ones there to watch, and the schedules insane.
Once they get to January, they have seventeen games they
play basically every other night, plus three back to backs,
so the schedule will end up balancing out in a
bad way for Houston when they get to January. That's
when their depth and their health will be tested. Number five.

(44:23):
The New York Knicks currently plus fifteen hundred to win
the title on hard Rock Bet. They are three to
zero since the bad loss to Boston where all their
weaknesses were on display, a couple easy ones against Charlotte
and Utah, but then a slug fest of a win
against the Orlando Magic yesterday. Very good to have og
and Andobi back. You can literally see how important he
is to their defense. It's just you need to have

(44:44):
him and McHale really flying around to account for the
mistakes that Cat makes and the physical limitations of Jalen Brunson.
And it's just been apparent every time I watch them,
and it's in the numbers as well. They're twelve points
better per one hundred possessions on defense with Ognanobi on
the floor versus off the floor. They're a great defense
with them on and a bad defense with him off.

(45:06):
It's been one of the big stories of this season
for them. It's just important that they have him out there.
With Michale. They've won seven out of eight their top
five in offense, defense and rebounding in that span. Townsend
Brunson have both been great on offense. In that stretch,
Josh Hart's playing some of the best basketball of his career.
He's averaging sixteen points, ten rebounds, and six assists per
game in that span, killing teams for helping off of

(45:26):
him or for putting centers on him. He's hitting threes
at a high rate, he's cutting, he's grabbing offensive rebounds,
just doing a lot of damage there. Similar to the Lakers,
they're just the one thing that's missing with them is
that signature win that like, no one's gonna take the
Lakers or the Knicks seriously until they go up against
one of the top tier contenders and just beat them.

(45:47):
It's just there's too much lingering baggage from their playoff
issues in recent seasons for both teams for them to
get the respect as a legitimate championship contender until they
go and beat one of these top teams in the league,
and they're gonna plenty of opportunities over the course of
the rest of the season. The difference though, between the
Knicks and the Lakers, for example, is the East is

(46:07):
wide open. Like if the season ended today for me
with the Lakers, I have them, I don't even have
them in the top tier in the West. I have
them in that second tier with Minnesota and San Antonio.
If the season were to end today and I had
to pick someone to win the East, to me, it's
like fifty to fifty between Detroit and New York, with

(46:27):
Boston hot on their heels because we just don't know
what deals they're going to make at the deadline. But like,
I mean, you could, because Detroit's so young, and because
the Knicks beat them in the playoffs last year, you
could talk me into the Knicks just being the East favorite.
Right now, I'd probably lean very slightly towards Detroit, But like,
like that's the thing that's different. With how open the

(46:49):
East is, even with the Knicks issues, they very easily
could win this conference. And that's why. If they can
clean some of this stuff up, they just become so
much more of a threat. But again, I think for
everybody to take them seriously, they're gonna have to have
a signature win at some point. Number four the Los
Angeles Lakers plus thirteen hundred to win the title, according
to hard Rock Bet. Once again, we hit them in
a segment earlier in the show, So I'm not gonna

(47:09):
stay here long, but This team is hitting all the
major checkpoints for championship contention. They seem to have excellent
chemistry and vibes around the team. They haven't lost two
games in a row yet, they're excellent on the road,
and they have a legit top tier superstar. That's one
of the big differences between them and the Knicks. Like
Luca was bad by his standards in the Suns game
and in that game yesterday in Philly, and yet in

(47:32):
those two games he averaged thirty five points, thirteen rebounds,
and eight assists on a fish and shooting. That's the
difference between the top tier guys and the next tier
of guys. They just somehow find a way to be
effective even when they're not at their best. And you know,
that's just a testament to how great Luca is. But again,
similar to New York, I think they need a signature
win to get everyone to really believe they can compete

(47:53):
at the highest levels, and they're gonna have a great
chance to do so this week. You beat San Antonio
on Wednesday, you got a date with Oklahoma City on
Saturday night. That would be an awesome opportunity for the
Lakers to demonstrate that They are a dead serious championship
contender in this league. Go beat Oklahoma City, Go compete
with Oklahoma City. Show that you can play with those guys.

(48:13):
Number three, the Denver Nuggets currently plus six hundred to
win the title according to hard Rock Back, currently sitting
at seventeen and six, which is the best start in
franchise history. They won their eighth, ninth, and tenth consecutive
road games this week, including a super impressive road win
in Atlanta against the Hawks. Jamal Murray is the guy
I want to hit on in this segment, just in
a really special zone in his last seven games, thirty points,

(48:36):
four rebounds, seven assists, fifty seven percent from the field,
sixty one percent from three to eighty nine percent from
the line, seventy two percent in true shooting percentage, and
I have to take a victory lap year. I'm going
to get into this more when we get into our
show on Friday where we go over my summer predictions.
But this is one of the ones that I was
right about. I got eviscerated this summer for saying that

(48:58):
Jamal Murray was one of the twenty five best in
the league, and my thought process there was just after
the trades and the signings. I just thought he'd come
in locked in because he'd see the opportunity they have
to win the title, and he's not exactly that. He's
come into the season in the best shape he has
in years. He's been excellent from the start. He's very
clearly to me one of the twenty five best players

(49:18):
in the league to start the season, and I think
he's going to be the first one of Jokiic's teammates
to make an All Star team. So shout out to
Jamal Murray. Awesome couple of weeks from him. The Nuggets
have won four out of five, which is super impressive
when you consider their down two starters and two very
very important starters to their defense, which obviously has been
a troublesom over the course of the last couple of weeks.

(49:40):
Number two, the Detroit Pistons currently plus two thousand to
win the title on hard Rock Bet another three in
one week. They took a bad loss to the Bucks
without Giannis, but they did get revenge for that on Saturday,
won a really fun game against the Blazers on Friday,
where Duncan Robinson ended up hitting a monster three. On
the right wing that ice the game. Winning those close
games has been the biggest difference between last Year'ston's team

(50:00):
and this year's Pistons team. Last year, the Pistons were
twenty one and twenty three in clutch games below five
hundred thirty, bad on both ends of the floor. This year,
they have a league best thirteen clutch wins, thirteen and
four overall and seventeen clutch games excellent on both ends
of the floor. Won thirty offensive rating, one h two

(50:21):
defensive rating. They are grabbing forty three percent of their
own misses, which is an insane number. We talked last
week about how good Shay's been in the clutch, and
Kaid's been right there with him. He's twenty four for
forty five from the field on fifty three percent shooting.
That's insane in crunch time. That's basically right where Shay
is at in the same kind of volume, same kind

(50:42):
of efficiency. Asar Thompson and Jalen Duran are killing teams
on the offensive glass at the end of games. I
think they have ten clutch offensive rebounds just between the
two of them. Tobias Harris, Karris Lavert, Duncan Robinson They've
all hit big shots. Danis Jenkins sent a game to
overtime with a big shot. They're just all hitting big
shots and they're converting the those close games and it's
driving their record. As we have the Pistons at number

(51:05):
two and then lastly today number one, the Oklahoma City Thunder.
This is very interesting. They were plus one point eighty
to win the title for hard Rock Bet last week,
all the way up to plus one forty five. Really
starting to gain some momentum in the odds there in
the lines there. Another week means another undefeated week for
the Thunder. Just an absolute machine. No Shay, no Hartenstein,

(51:27):
no Dort on the road in Utah and they just
like jump them right out the gates. They go up
by twenty seven points in the first quarter. Just a
ridiculous team. I watched their win against Dallas, and I
thought they put together one of their best offensive halves
i've seen them play. In that second half against Dallas,
Shae J. Dub and AJ Mitchell just put such insane
pressure on the rim with their drives. I left that

(51:48):
game thinking this might be the best duo of drivers
to the basket that I've seen since Lebron James and
Dwayne Wade in the early twenty tens. Shay and j
Dubb in particular, they're just relentless beating that first line
of the defense and getting into the paint and everything
good comes from there. They're seemingly always making the right
reads and as you saw in that second alfaganst Dallas

(52:11):
like they get good looks, they're knocking them down. They're
shooting forty three percent this season on unguarded catch and
shoot threes. That's fifth in the entire NBA. They're just
one of the best shooting teams in the league too. Now,
so just get used to that. That's the reality. I
have a feeling that by the time we get to July,
we'll be discussing this Thunder team as one of the
greatest teams ever play in the NBA. That's how special

(52:31):
of a level they've reached. And it's everyone, even their benches,
annihilating people. I'm gonna leave you guys today with this
stat which is maybe the craziest stat I can ever
remember seeing with an NBA team. The Yoklahoma City Thunder
are outscoring opponents by sixteen point two points per one
hundred possessions with shake kills as Alexander off the floor

(52:53):
this season in six hundred and sixty possessions. It's pretty
substantial sample size. That net rating plus sixteen point two
would be the best net rating in the entire NBA
this season, better than any of the other teams in
the league. For one last bit of perspective, let's compare

(53:13):
that to a team that is actually considered to be
the best basketball team ever by most folks, the twenty
seventeen Warriors. The twenty seventeen Warriors with Steph Curry off
the floor plus zero point two points per one hundred possessions.
They were dominant, but they were only dominant with Steph.
This thunder team is on pace for the most incredible

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demonstration of organizational excellence from the top down in the
history of the NBA. That's what they have the ability
to accomplish this season. If they can close the deal
all the way through mid June. They are boat racing
teams without their best player boat racing them. It's unbelievable.
It's again, that's one of the wildest stats I can
ever remember seeing about an NBA team. All right, guys,

(53:59):
that's all I have for today As always to sincerely
appreciate you guys for supporting us and supporting the show. Again.
No show tomorrow, but we'll be back on Wednesday twice.
Wednesday morning to cover the Tuesday night in season tournament
games and then Wednesday night to cover the Wednesday night
in season tournament games, and we'll be off again on Thursday.
Friday morning will go over all my preseason predictions, and
then Saturday night, after the semi finals of the n

(54:20):
season tournament, will be live on YouTube again. As always,
I appreciate you guys for supporting us and supporting the show.
I'll see you guys on Wednesday morning.