July 21, 2025 • 38 mins
Jason reacts to the weekend's big NBA news of Marcus Smart getting bought out by the Washington Wizards and signing with the Los Angeles Lakers to join Luka Doncic and LeBron James. Then he breaks down Chris Paul signing with the LA Clippers and how he ranks the contenders in the Eastern Conference: the New York Knicks, Cleveland Cavaliers, Orlando Magic, Atlanta Hawks, Milwaukee Bucks, Detroit Pistons, and Philadelphia 76ers.
#Volume
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:01):
The Volume. All right, welcome to him tonight here at
the Volume Heavy Monday, everybody hopeful, if you guys had
a great weekend, got a jam pack show for you today.
(00:21):
We're gonna be hitting the LA teams off the bat
as the Lakers made a couple of moves over the
weekend and most importantly signing Marcus Smart for two years
at eleven million dollars, and then this morning Chris Paul
headed back to the Clippers to finish his career there.
So we're gonna hit those two teams off the top.
At the tail end of the show. We spent a
lot of time talking over the course of the last
(00:42):
few weeks about the Western Conference and these tiers that
I see, the top tier being the teams that are
the clear best teams in the conference, and then this
like second tier of teams in the West that are
all kind of like vying for the best possible puncher's
chance to get a big upset and get out of conference.
And I see two similar tiers in the Eastern Conference,
(01:03):
and we haven't taken time yet this summer to kind
of break that down. So at the tail end of
the show today, I'm going to rank the top seven
teams and the Eastern Conference into two different tiers and
just give quick breakdowns of why I see those teams
in those respective tiers. You guys know the joke before
we get started. To subscribe to the Hoops and I
YouTube channels. You don't miss any more of our videos.
Follow me on Twitter at underscore jcnlt so you guys
(01:24):
don't miss announcement. Still, forget about a podcast feed where
you get your podcast on our Hoops tonight. It's also
super helpful if you leave a rating and a review
on that front. Jackson's doing great work on our social
media feeds on Twitter, Instagram, Facebook and TikTok. Make sure
you guys follow us over there, and then, last but
not least, keep dropping mailbag questions in the YouTube comments.
We were recording a mailbag on Wednesday. We have a
(01:45):
big Wednesday. We've got Samus FONDIARRII who covers the Warriors
with the Light Years podcasts. Lots of drama going on
over there, basically the drama of nothing happening, and so
we're gonna have Sam come on the show and break
down for us his take on the Warriors off season.
But we're also be recording a mail bag that day.
So if you want to get mailbag questions in for
our Wednesday mail Bag, which will air on Friday, drop
(02:06):
them in the comments below this video. All right, let's
talk some basketball. So the Lakers made three moves over
the weekend. They cut Shake Milton, they cut Jordan Goodwin,
and they signed Marcus Smart at two years in eleven
million dollars. First of all, good luck to Jordan Goodwin
in the future. All of you Laker fans know and
they will all Laker fans will tell you that he's
(02:28):
a very useful NBA player, And I actually hope that
he eventually makes his way back to the Lakers at
some point down the line. I just think he's a
really useful player in what they try to do. If
it's a kind of a skill set that the Lakers
are still lacking to a certain extent in terms of
just a very high motor, defensive minded player that can
rebound really well for his size. And so I hope
(02:49):
he eventually makes his way back to the Lakers. But
if not, just good luck to Jordan Goodwin in the future.
I really really enjoyed rooting for him last year in
a Laker Jersey. I want to start by just giving
my shoal reaction to the Marcus Smart signing, just kind
of big picture before we go into some of the
more basketball detail and how he fits with the Lakers.
(03:09):
I really like Marcus. I think he's an excellent player,
and I think when healthy, he can help just about
every team in the NBA. You guys might remember me
spending a lot of time last summer talking about how
much I liked his fit alongside Desmond Bain and John Moran.
I wanted to see more of that coming into this season.
In the twenty twenty three twenty twenty four season, the
(03:31):
Grizzlies played one hundred and thirty minutes, only one hundred
and thirty because Marcus could only play twenty games that year,
But they played one hundred and thirty minutes with all
three of those guys Desmond Bain, John Morant, and Marcus
Smart on the court together, and they were really good.
They outscored teams by six point four points per one
hundred possessions. They were elite on defense. It was one
of their top five lineup combinations to play at least
(03:53):
one hundred minutes in that entire season. It. It just
makes a lot of sense. Marcus Smart is a impactful,
versatile perimeter defender when he's healthy, and he brought some
of that connective playmaking to their offense and weak side scoring,
and he just was a great fit with them. And
I always have viewed Marcus Smart as a ceiling raising
type of player when he's healthy, But he just hasn't
(04:16):
been able to stay on the court. Over the course
of the last two years, he played in a grand
total of fifty four games, and the last two seasons combined,
he's played over sixty one games in a season just
once in the last six seasons. So everything with Marcus
is theoretical in the sense that he just hasn't shown
the ability to stay on the court, especially in the
(04:38):
last couple of years. I've talked extensively about the Lakers
needing a starting caliber two or a starting caliber three
that is a professional two way player, a defender that
can contribute to what the team is trying to do
offensively instead of taking away from it the way that
a guy like Jared Vanderbilt does for the Lakers off
(04:59):
the bat. Marcus Smart, when healthy, Let's be very clear,
he is not just a good option as a starting
caliber two or three. He's a great option there. But
it's just like the conversation with Paul George and the
seventy six ers. Paul George is fully healthy, He's not
just a good option alongside MAXI and MB. He's a
(05:21):
great option there, But how confident are you, guys that
Paul George is going to be completely healthy for the
majority of next season. So that's where there's that big
question mark there is Like there's a version of this
where Marcus turns out to be exactly what the Lakers need,
but it's kind of threading a pretty narrow path in
order to get to that point. The move for me
(05:43):
continues to play into what I view as an extremely
high variance season for this Lakers team coming up in
the twenty twenty five to twenty six campaign. There's a
version of this where everyone stays healthy, everyone plays close
to their individual peaks, and they're like a top tier
contender that's all the table. Like what if Luca gets
in great shape and goes on a revenge campaign. What
(06:05):
if Lebron maintains playing at that second team all NBA level.
What if Lebron and Austin both improve as catch and
shoot players so they can fit more seamlessly off ball
next to Luca. What if DeAndre Ayton, in a contract year,
plays the best basketball of his career. What if Marcus
Smart returns to form as one of the best role
(06:27):
players in the league. That's a really fucking good team.
If all of those things happen. You'd be foolish to
think that that group couldn't win the title if all
of those things happen. But if just one or two
of those things goes the other way, they're playing team
Like if Marcus or DeAndre or Lebron struggle with injuries
(06:47):
all year and they're because they're dealing with nagging injuries,
they just kind of operated a level below what they're
capable of. They could easily drop in a Western conference
that's just stacked with really, really good teams, And so
it just feels very much like a high variant season
for this Lakers team. You told me they were a
top three seed and that they'd make the conference finals,
(07:08):
I'd be like, that is absolutely an achievable thing for
this Lakers team. But if you told me that they
were gonna make the play in and then squeak in
as a seven or eight seed and then get you know,
sent home in four or five games. That doesn't seem
out of the realm of possibility either. I mean it
just happened last year, right, So like just feels very
very high variance because of just the sheer gap between like,
(07:31):
you know, overweight balky knee Luca versus MVP of the
league level Luca or Lebron when he's banged up and
not himself versus the Lebron that we saw before his
growing injury last year. DeAndre Ayton, the aloof undisciplined player
in Portland versus some of the peaks that we saw
from him in Phoenix. The Marcus Smart that was a
(07:54):
rock solid starter for the Celtics for years versus the
guy that's been unable to stay on the floor. All
of those things are potential outcomes for the Lakers this year.
On an individual level. I want to give credit where
credits due. I've been critical of the Lakers for looking
entirely beyond the Lebron era with their assets. I think
it's a mistake because there is no guarantee that you
(08:17):
will ever be able to find a player as good
as this version of Lebron to put next to Luka Doncic. Like,
if you ask me right now, is it more likely
that the Lakers will eventually have another second team All
NBA or better player alongside Luca or that they won't.
I would argue it's more likely that they won't. It's
just hard. There's ten of them in the entire league, right,
(08:39):
That's what second team All NBA is, and Lebron, like
flat Lee, was playing at that level when Luca came
to the Lakers, So like, I don't think that there's
a guarantee that you're gonna find another guy like that.
In other words, in terms of top end talent, you
might not ever be as good as you are right
now in the Lukadancic era. So my approach, if I
(09:01):
was running the team would be geared more towards finding
ways to turn future based assets. Guys like Dalton Connect,
who I do not think is ready to contribute to
a winning team in a real dead series context yet
probably a few years away, probably and a first round
draft pick. I would be trying to turn those into
high quality starters in their twenties who can retain value
(09:25):
into the future alongside Luca. And by the way, I'm
not saying that they could have done that to this point,
that player hasn't really materialized yet. The summer isn't even over.
They could do it before the season, they could do
it at the deadline. I'm just saying I don't think
they will because I don't think the Lakers value that
high level starter nearly as much as they value a
shot at Giannis or a shot at Nikola Jokic. Right So, like,
(09:49):
I just think in terms of the overall like direction
of the team, they're thinking more towards the future and
the next great star to pair with Luca, rather than
try to capitalize on We have a second team all
NBA guy with Luca right now and Austin Reeves and
DeAndre Ayton. Why don't we try to maximize this. I
(10:09):
think their focus is mere towards the future. But if
you wanted to make a run with this Lebron and
Luca group without sacrificing any of your long term flexibility
within those confines, this front office has done a very
nice job this offseason. The Lakers needed two things mainly
(10:32):
this offseason, a professional two way starter at the two
or the three to balance out their starting lineup, and
they needed a starting caliber center, specifically one that would
fit skill set wise with Luka Donjic, and they successfully
obtained both of those guys. In theory, it just obviously
comes with a lot of potential downsides, which is why
(10:54):
you can get Marcus Smart in the open market at
two years eleven million and Deandreyton in the open market
two years and sixteen or seventeen million, whatever it was
that he ended up signing for. They were available at
those numbers because they come with the downsides Marcus Smart
with his health and eight and with his health and
his lack of professionalism. But within those confines, we got
(11:16):
to give the Lakers front office credit. They found two
starting caliber players essentially for free in terms of asset expenditure.
So credit to the Lakers, credit to Rob Polinka and
his entire staff for getting that done within those confines.
My one big hope to try to bridge the gap
between those two ideas, the idea that I'm trying to
pitch in terms of maximizing the present versus the other
(11:40):
half of the bridge, which is Polinka and his focus
more towards long term flexibility with Luca. My one big
hope is that if this team appears capable of making
a run in February, if all of those things go
the way I said that, they could Luca revenge campaign,
Lebron all MBA Austin and Lebron improving is catch and
(12:00):
shoot players eight in contract year dominance, Marcus Smart looks
like the Marcus Smart from Boston. If those things happen
and they're sitting as a two or three seed in February,
I hope at that point they make the sort of
aggressive move to try to capitalize on this era. Aggression
wins in the NBA, Oklahoma City loses if they don't
(12:22):
get Alex Crusoe and Isaiah Hartenstein. They were aggressive Boston,
the same thing with Drew Holliday and krisops Porzingis turned
a just another team towards the top of the league
into a bona fide top tier contender with offseason aggression.
Toronto obviously to a more dramatic extent with Kawhi, aggression wins.
If you want to win the big pot, sometimes you
(12:45):
have to push your chips in, and all I hope
is that the Lakers read the room and if they're
sitting there in January and February, and it's like, holy shit,
we got a chance to do this, Let's go for it.
We match up well with Denver because Jokic struggles guard
Luca and pick and roll. We match up well with
OKC because Lebron and Luca have such size advantages against
(13:06):
their perimeter defenders. If they are in that situation, I
hope they sense the opportunity. There is no big, scary
Boston in the Eastern Conference this year. This is a
gettable This is a gettible championship for teams that feel
like they can match up well with the top teams
in the West. And I think that the Lakers should
feel that way, at least in theory, if all of
(13:27):
those things shape out the way that they're capable of.
All right, let's talk some basketball fit. I'm going to
frame this entire discussion through the lens of Marcus being
healthy and close to his usual self. I don't really
see the point of having the conversation if that's not
the case. So from this point forward, let's just pretend
Marcus is Marcus. I've been seeing some debate among Laker
fans about where Marcus slots in the starting group like,
(13:50):
does he take Ruie's spot? Does he take Austin's spot?
The answer to me is pretty obvious. It's Ruey. He's
always been a bit redundant with Lebron over the years
as they play the same position. Well, so are Marcus
and Austin. Right, But I don't actually see it that way.
Your position isn't about what you can do on offense.
(14:12):
Ruey and Lebron fit beautifully on offense. Ruey's off ball
chemistry with Lebron is a cutter along the baseline and
as a weekside score that works wonderfully. Well, it's about
what you can do on defense. Ruey and Lebron are
both traditional low men help defender defense rebounder like weak
side defenders. Neither of them are quick enough to guard
(14:36):
opposing perimeter players at the three. That is where it
causes problems for them. Marcus Smart fills a defensive role
at a starting caliber level that the Lakers haven't had
since Max Christy and he was out sent out in
the Luca trade. Right, Marcus is a great option to
deploy on the other team's best best. In other words,
(15:03):
he's not redundant with any Laker in the starting lineup
on that side of the ball, so he's an immediate
great fit. He even brings scheme versatility. JJ Reddick likes
to switch a lot. Marcus Smart can pretty adequately defend
one through four, But if he wanted to run traditional
coverages like I'm at the level coverage with DeAndre Ayton
(15:25):
and pick and roll where you don't switch, or a
deeper drop, Marcus can do both. Marcus can pressure the
ball and back pressure and get physical with defenders and
get over the top of screens, So there's some scheme
versatility there. I also think he more appropriately slots Austin
as the second best perimeter defender on the team. That's
(15:46):
where I think he's equipped just fine. Most of the
issues with Austin over the years defensively had more to
do with him having to fill a role he should
never have had to fill. Like him, We're tossing the
ball up against the Warriors, and Austin's the primary defender
for Steph Curry, Like, that's not a great option, But
(16:07):
if he's the primary defender for Buddy Healed, I think
he can handle that. You see what I'm saying, And like,
obviously switching complicates that to a certain extent, but there
is a lot more versatilities in terms of scheme if
you have a traditional point of attack defender versus a
guy that's cosplaying as one because you simply don't have
one in the starting lineup. In general, a starting lineup
(16:31):
featuring Marcus Smart would have a much more balanced defensive look.
Marcus Smart feels that traditional athletic defensive guard that guards
the opposing best perimeter player, right, Luca functionally is that
skill guard you have to hide, just like you have
in so many teams around the league. You do this
with the Clippers with James Harden. You do this with
(16:52):
the Warriors with Steph You do this with the Hawks
with Trey Young. You do this with all of these
different teams. Dallas will do it with d' angelo Russell
this year. Like the skill guard that you're kind of
trying to hide on a player that he can hedge
and recover on blah blah blah. That's Lucas He's fine.
You can usually get away with one of those guys.
Austin functionally kind of slots in as like your guards,
(17:15):
the second best perimeter player, like a lock and trail
guy guarding like a movement shooter, like if you're playing Orlando,
he's gonna guard Desmond Baye right, or like he's gonna
guard the off ball scorer, the secondary scorer. And then
Lebron is your traditional lowman and Ayton is your traditional
athletic big that you can establish your your baseline scheme with. Now,
(17:36):
the Lakers are gonna score a shit ton of points.
We've talked about this. If they're healthy. DeAndre Ayton brings
that four out one in spacing threat as a role
man that should make this team very difficult to guard.
I think the Lakers are gonna score a lot of points,
so they don't need to be a like an amazing defense.
They just need to be a middle of the pack defense.
And I think they have a much better chance of
(17:58):
achieving that with a healthy Marcus Smart than they do
with a less healthy Marcus Smart or without him on
the roster. I also generally think in terms of starting
him over Ruy, I generally think Ruey has more value
as a utility player off the bench that you can
plug and play into different kinds of lineups or spots.
Starts like, oh, Marcus Smart is out, we just go
(18:20):
back to last year's starting lineup. Here's Ruey oh Lebron's
out well. Ruey can play the four, He'll play Lebron's position.
Austin happens to take a night off, Marcus can slot
up to the two. You play Ruey at the three.
He's like a sixth starter that also can be plugged
into a bunch of different bench looks. On offense, Marcus
has always been a streaky shooter. He didn't shoot well
(18:41):
in Memphis, shot well in a small sample in Washington,
but that's been the case in Boston forever. He's gonna
have games and stretches of games where he shoots really well,
and then games and stretches of games where he can't
make anything. He's just very streaky shooter. But he's pretty
solid at everything. He can play off the catch as
a spot up guy. He can play make out of
the middle of the floor and four on threes off
(19:02):
of Luca Blitz. If you guys remember in the twenty
twenty two finals, Marcus did a lot of really high
quality playmaking work in the middle of the floor. He
can run action with the bench group like his solid
pick and roll ball handler. He can at the very
least add to what the Lakers are doing defensively or offensively,
excuse me, rather than like what we've seen in the past,
their defensive personnel, guys like Van Do, guys like Gabe.
(19:24):
It's much more touch and go there, especially Van Do.
Smart is a more reliable offensive option there. So fingers
cross Lakers fans. If we can get a healthy Marcus
Smart for the entire season, that's a hell of a team.
But I'm just being honest, Like, when I saw the
alert come through and I looked down and I'm like, oh, sweet,
Marcus Smart with the Lakers. My first thought was like,
(19:45):
I'll believe it when I see it, just because it's
just so I just haven't seen Marcus be able to
sustain his like his ceiling personally on the floor without
breaking down physically over the last couple of years. I'm
hoping that's not the case. But that was just my
first thought when I saw it. It was like, I
really liked him in Memphis. I really wanted to see
him in Memphis, and he just couldn't stay on the floor.
(20:08):
Nothing says summer like long days, clutch plays and firing
off a few bets on the game, all with draft
Kings Sportsbook. As the season heats up, so do the bats.
When DraftKings Sportsbook, as you've covered with live betting, home
run props, odds, boosts, and more. Whether you're chasing dingers
or jumping in mid game, there's always action to be had.
Never bet on baseball before. It's easy. Just pick a
(20:30):
guy to go yard, hammer some live odds mid game,
or just ride with your squad and hope for the best.
No spreadsheets, just vibes and dingers. It's been a fun
Major League season. Aaron Judge hitting all sorts of home runs,
we got, show Heylkhani pitching again. My dbacks are still
kind of like struggling there in the NL West. It
is what it is. But here's something special for first timers.
(20:50):
New DraftKings customers. Bet five dollars and get one hundred
and fifty dollars in bonus bets instantly. Download the Draft
Kings Sportsbook app and use code hoops. That's code hoopsps
for new customers to get one hundred and fifty dollars
in bonus bets instantly when you bet just five bucks
only on DraftKings. The crown is yours, alrighty Chris Paul
(21:11):
signing with the Los Angeles Clippers. I love this signing.
I was super excited about this. Jackson and I were
joking before we started recording today. It's been kind of
fun seeing him go to LA and obviously seeing Dame
go back to Portland. It just kind of feels very
like nostalgic for US basketball fans to see these guys
going back home. But I love this signing even just
in terms of the basketball. First of all, I love
(21:34):
that Chris Paul gets to play for a serious team
that can actually use a skill set, but that doesn't
necessarily need him to be available every night. It's like
a low pressure, great basketball fit, and he gets to
be home in Los Angeles. Kind of a perfect set
of circumstances for him in the final year of his career,
and for the Clippers when everyone is healthy, when Bradley
(21:55):
Beal is playing, when Kawhi's playing, they don't necessarily need him,
so his aid and durability concerns are not concerns. But
they do have guys and Bradley Beal and Kawhi Leonard
that frequently missed time, and Chris is still somehow just
an incredibly reliable pick and roll ball handler in this league.
(22:18):
Chris even and he's again He's gonna be forty years
old this year, was one of the best pick and
roll ball handlers in the NBA. Last year, he ran
eight hundred and ninety two pick and rolls including passes
for a Spurs team that was full of young and
flawed players, and he generated nine hundred and fifty nine points.
(22:39):
That's one point zero eight points per possession including passes.
To give you an idea of where that ranks in
the NBA, there were twenty four players last year to
run at least eight hundred pick and rolls. Chris is
one point zero eight points per possession, ranked eighth on
that list, ahead of guys like Steph Curry, Anthony Edwards,
Trey Young, Jason Tate, James Hard, and Kate Cunningham. Despite
(23:02):
playing with a very young and flawed group of players
in San Antonio. It just comes down to that simple
conversation we've been having all summer with respect to advantage creation,
if you can come off of an action and take
advantage of the baked in advantages that are there and
the reads that come up based on what help defenders
(23:23):
are doing, and you can hit the pocket when it's open,
and hit the skip when they tag the roller, and
hit the swing when they dig down, and nail help
and make all of those simple basic reads, knock down
a mid range floater or jump shot if they happen
to stay home, and defend it two on two. If
you can make those simple decisions reads and shots, you
(23:44):
can set up all of these flawed players with advantages
with the guys sprinting at them, and if they have
a guy sprinting at them, all of them skyrocket inefficiency.
This is why guys like James Harden have so much
value in the league still. This is why guys like
D'Angelo Russell still have so much value in this league.
This is why you can put Tray Young. We're gonna
(24:05):
talk about it later. This is why you can put
Tray Young with a bunch of athletes and have them
still be a very good team, because even flawed athletes,
if you give them an advantage, can score the basketball.
Chris Paul is just still one of the very best
at that specific trait, which is so valuable in the NBA.
(24:27):
I think it helps a lot with that Brook Lopez
edition as well. The Clippers can now win. They're healthy.
Put together forty eight minutes of a really high level
pick and roll ball handler and a really high level
screening partner. You guys all know what Zoo can do.
He's done it with Harden for the last couple of
years now and it's looked beautiful. Brook Lopez is still
(24:48):
one of the best pick and pop guys in the league.
He scored one point two points per roleman touched last year.
That's amazing. That was top five in the NBA among
players to log at least two hundred roll man touches.
So the Clippers are going to have an extremely high
floor this year. They can provide forty eight minutes of
(25:09):
quality advantage creation with a high powered pick and roll partner,
with off ball talent and elite ISO scorer and Kawhi Leonard,
they've got great perimeter defenders man like I feel the
same way about him this year as I did last year.
I just I would be stunned if they slipped into
the plan, just because they are so well built to
succeed in the modern NBA. Even though three of their
(25:32):
four advantage creators have health issues, they can easily afford
to have one or two of those guys be out
of the game without experiencing much of a drop off
because they just have other guys that can slot in
and do more or less the same thing. This Clippers
team is going to be a lot of fun to
watch this year. I'm very, very excited for it. Man.
It's like a battle of LA for the second tier
(25:53):
in the Western Conference. Obviously, I don't think either of
them are as good as Denver, okay See or Houston,
but like once you get off of that top tier,
like there's a version of this that this Clippers team
is going to be really good, and then if the
Lakers are healthy, they can be really good too. It's
gonna be a couple of really really good elied LA
teams for us to cover this year. All right, let's
take our focus out to the Eastern Conference again. I
(26:16):
talked about how out in the West, my top tier
is some combination of Houston, Oklahoma City, and Denver, and
then after that it's the two LA teams, It's Minnesota,
it's Golden State. That's like the main group there. Maybe
San Antonio depending on how things shake up this year
with some of their young players. But that's like the
kind of two tiers out West. I similarly see a
couple of tiers like that out in the Eastern Conference.
(26:38):
I have two teams in the top tier, and then
I have five teams in the second tier. So I
want to just list those for you guys today and
give quick breakdowns for why I have those teams in
those tiers. So first in Tier one, the Cleveland Cavaliers
and the New York Knicks. Now with the Calves, I
understand why you would be extremely discouraged with their playoff
(27:01):
exit last year. I went on Cleveland Sports Radio a
few weeks ago and the hosts were pretty bummed out
and they were like, we saw your list before the playoffs,
how you had the Calves down at four, and like
we were all mad. And then turns out you were right,
and I like had to cut in and I'm like no, no, no, no, no, Like, yeah,
I wasn't as high on Cleveland as I was on
some other teams around the league, but let's be real
(27:24):
about what happened. I actually find myself higher on the
Calves than most after that disappointment. And it's not even
because the top of the East got weaker. That certainly
helps and we'll talk about that in a minute. But
Darius Garland was hurt, and I really think that was
the thing that prevented the Calves from operating at their
(27:46):
regular season peak. We just talked about it with advantage
creation with respect to Chris Paul, Darius Garland is the
guy who, when he's healthy, is so fucking quick that
nobody can stop him from getting where he needs to
get on the floor. When we talk about shooting variants,
it's like, oh, well, all these Calves shooters, they just
(28:06):
couldn't shoot in the playoffs. And it's like, it's just
not that simple. It's not a like it's not as
simple as just variants, or this guy got scared, or
whatever it might be. When you set up guys with
quality looks, they tend to go in. When Darius Garland
has a bad toe and he can't plant and change
(28:30):
direction and change speed and beat people off the dribble
as effectively, he's not breaking down the defense as well.
When he's not breaking down the defense as well, the
kickout reads aren't as clean. When the kickout reads aren't
as clean, those catch and shoot looks aren't the same.
They're more rushed. There's a better close out, they're more
smothered when those are not materializing. They then devolve into
(28:54):
Donovan Mitchell hero ball. That was the order of operations.
A big part of what made the Cavs so good
last year was Donovan pulled back and picked his spots
more and Darius Garland was that like engine that ran
the team in terms of their advantage creation. Darius was hurt,
(29:15):
DeAndre Hunter was hurt. Evan Mobley was hurt. I think
those two matter way less in this context, but Darius
being hurt it kind of felt like the head got
cut off the snake. In a lot of ways. They
logged a one twelve point six offensive rating versus Indiana,
like the thing that drove them all year, their unbelievable
(29:36):
offense abandoned them. And I do think it is connected
to that Garland injury. Now does that mean that I
think again? I ranked Cleveland fourth in my list of
championship contenders before the playoffs last year. I wasn't as
high on them as everyone else, But now it kind
of seems like everyone's like it's just Donovan Mitchell and
Evan Mobley and a bunch of dudes, and like there
are some things like even even Jared Allen. You don't
(29:57):
think Jared Allen's effectiveness was tanked by Darius Garland's injury
and his inability to get to spots that the way
he normally does. These things are all intricately connected, and
so I just believe that if they run it back
and they continue all of the basketball identity that they
(30:18):
built last year, and they just are a little bit
more particular about Darius Garland's health throughout the year and
just make sure he's ready to go when they get
to April. And then you add in that Boston's out
of it in Indiana, the team that was kind of
a bad matchup for you because of their ball pressure,
especially with Darius Garland's injury. If you remove those two
(30:39):
teams from the equation. By the way, Boston and Indiana
are not in these tiers for me. In either of
these tiers for me, Boston is nowhere near good enough
at the center position. They lost through holiday. It's Jalen Brown,
it's Anferny Simon's and it's a pretty substantial drop off
in talent there. So I don't think Boston has it.
Take Tyre's Halliburn and miles out of the picture. For
(31:01):
Indiana is going to be feisty. I think Boston will
be feisty just because they're well coached and they play
a beautiful brand of modern basketball. But they both feel
like third tier teams for me in the Eastern Conference
for this season. So you remove them from the equations,
and all of a sudden, it looks like there's a
pathway here for Cleveland. There's a pathway here for Cleveland
to get out of that conference. And you know what
(31:22):
basketball is all about, matchups your fastest Shit, what if
you're so fast and you catch a team like Denver
in the finals and you just run them off the
floor with your speed. There is a again, it's a
very narrow pathway, but there is a pathway here. And
I actually feel pretty good about Cleveland having a chance
to get out of the Eastern Conference this season and
(31:43):
give themselves a reasonable puncher's chance to hoist the trophy.
The Knicks. The Knicks got beat by Indiana on the margins.
You're bringing Mike Brown. He establishes a higher level attention
to detail that immediately gives you a better chance to
maximize the roster. They also added some valuable depth in
Jordan Clarkson and gershen YABUSELI hopefully they lean on their
(32:04):
depth more throughout the regular season. They suddenly are a
team that has a ton of playoff continuity. They're making
deep playoff runs every year. They're gonna do so again
in this coming season. This is a New York Knicks
team that is on the doorstep of potentially breaking through.
I have them as a top tier team out in
the East as well Tier two. These are teams that
(32:24):
all have just a puncher's chance to win the conference.
First year Atlanta Magic, and again, these aren't in any
particular order. I came very close to putting Orlando in
my top tier. I think if Jalen Suggs Wagner, and
Paulo Bonkaro can stay healthy, they could easily come out
and do some ass kicking this year and like legitimately
(32:46):
be competing for the top seed in the conference. It
ended up being health and then some of my concerns
with Jamal Mosley's offense that had me keep them down
in that second tier. But I think if the Sugs
and Bain fit alongside Franz and Paulo, so I think
it makes a ton of sense. I think Bayin in
particular brings a level of like screen shooting threat, off
screen shooting threat that could potentially skyrocket their ceiling on
(33:10):
the offensive end of the floor. I don't think they've
had a shooter that brings that level of fear. Again,
there's a lot of shooters in the NBA that we
will live with. Teams will live with taking shots on
the move with a rear view contest, whereas Desmond Bayan,
it's like, good luck. If you do that, he's going
to cook you. You're going to have to show up
at the level. As soon as you start showing up
(33:31):
at the level, it's just going to open up all
sorts of advantages for them to play off of. I
think that fit is beautiful. I think they're going to
be a pain in the ass team to beat four
times if they're healthy. The Atlanta Hawks, this team obviously
lacks any sort of championship ceiling, but they remind me
of the Clippers in the sense that they've spent the
last two offseasons just loading up on the type of
(33:53):
talent combinations that I think really work in the modern
NBA perimeter. Athletes that can defend and on the floor
and rebound and play with an advantage. Zachary Risache, Jalen Johnson,
Dyson Daniels, Alexander Walker. These are all guys that establish
an extremely high floor for a basketball team just because
(34:15):
of the way they can impact the game with their athleticism,
and when you put them in the context of a
supreme advantage creator like Trey Young, they all have higher
offensive utility than they would have elsewhere in the league.
Like Ni Kile, Alexander Walker is a pretty damn good
spot up shooter and he's been playing on a team
that doesn't move the ball particularly well over the last
(34:36):
few years. I love the Porzingis fit if he can
stay healthy. Trey Young is a drop coverage destroyer, but
over the years he has struggled when teams can effectively
switch ball screens with quality defenders. Kriss Porzingis gives them
another reliable way to beat a switching scheme because of
(34:58):
what he can do out of the post, and again,
when he's healthy, he's been one of the best switch
beaters out of the post in the entire NBA for
several years now. Ever, since that last year in Washington,
even a smaller move for Atlanta, like getting Luke Canard,
similar to what we were talking about with Desmond Baine.
Guys that can shoot coming off of screens like Canard
(35:20):
generate lots of natural advantages that make life easier for
their athletes. I am relatively certain that Atlanta will be
above the play in and I think they have a
really good shot at home court in the first round
of the playoffs. I would not be surprised to at
all if they were a top four seed this year.
Three More Milwaukee such a bizarre and funky roster. Obviously,
(35:45):
guys like Kevin Porter Junior and Cole Anthony is your
ball handler's high ceiling, low floor forwards like Kyle Kuzma
and Bobby Portis. Miles Turner is probably the second best
player on this team, but they have Giannis and Tenna
Kompo and a version of him that over the years
has been developing into more and more of a point forward,
(36:05):
a guy that can really read the floor and spray
out to shooters, and this Bucks front office has surrounded him.
You say what you want about the roster, and it's
got its issues. They surround him with quite a bit
of shooting. When it's Miles Turner out there, when it's
Bobby Portus out there, Gary Trent, Junior, AJ Green, like,
these dudes can knock down, catch and shoot jump shots
at a high cliff and so there's a lot of
(36:27):
value in Giannis's growing playmaking ability. Giannis has the opportunity
this year to do what Lebron did in twenty eighteen.
These teams above him are beatable. Again, I like Cleveland,
I like New York, I like all these teams I've
talked about. They're beatable. These are not world beating teams.
And it's Giannis with a ton of shooting around him.
(36:50):
It's a funky roster. Remember that twenty eighteen Cash team
was a really weird team, but like Lebron was able
to just kind of backpack that group to a finals birth.
I think Giannis has a similar chance this year if
he can reach that type of ceiling. But again, like
twenty eighteen, Lebron, I'd argue is the best basketball player
I've ever seen. So again, it's a really high level
(37:10):
to get to, but I do think Gianis has some
of that capability this season. The Detroit Pistons kind of
a strange offseason with the situation with Malik Beasley and
what he may or may not have been doing. But
they did an admirable job of replacing that talent with
guys like Karis Lavert and Duncan Robinson. They also lost
him Hardaway Junior, so they replaced both of those guys.
Duncan brings that hyper aggressive off ball scoring that we've
(37:32):
been talking about with guys like Desmond Baine and Luke Canard.
I actually think Duncan is a underrated playmaker in this
league out of screening action something you Piston's fans will
learn to love about him right away. I think he
almost like gives you more aggregate playmaking on the floor,
which I think brings a lot of value. And then
Karris Lavert is basically just a bigger and higher floor
version of Dennis Schroeder. I don't think he's quite as
(37:53):
high ceiling as Dennis Schroeder, but he's just in terms
of his size and athleticism, his ability to guard on
the perimeter, and just as ability to get a shot
off over the top. He's a bigger, higher floor version
of Dennis Schroeder. If Jade and Ivy can come back
healthy and if he can fit well with this group,
and if CAID continues to improve, they absolutely have a
puncher's chance to win the conference. And then lastly, we
(38:15):
have to have an obligatory seventy six ers appearance Clippers
East in the sense that if Joel Embiid and Paul
George are healthy, they immediately become one of the more
talented rosters in the conference, so you can never write
them off completely, even though I don't think any of
us actually think that's going to happen. So those are
the seven teams that I view in the top two
tiers in the Eastern Conference. All right, guys, it's all
(38:37):
half for today. He's always sincerely appreciate you guys for
supporting us and supporting the show again. We'll be back
on Wednesday with Samas fondi Arii, and we're also recording
a mailbag that day that's going to air on Friday,
so make sure you guys drop some mailbag questions in
the comments. I will see you guys on Wednesday.
The Volume. All right, welcome to him tonight here at
the Volume Heavy Monday, everybody hopeful, if you guys had
a great weekend, got a jam pack show for you today.
(00:21):
We're gonna be hitting the LA teams off the bat
as the Lakers made a couple of moves over the
weekend and most importantly signing Marcus Smart for two years
at eleven million dollars, and then this morning Chris Paul
headed back to the Clippers to finish his career there.
So we're gonna hit those two teams off the top.
At the tail end of the show. We spent a
lot of time talking over the course of the last
(00:42):
few weeks about the Western Conference and these tiers that
I see, the top tier being the teams that are
the clear best teams in the conference, and then this
like second tier of teams in the West that are
all kind of like vying for the best possible puncher's
chance to get a big upset and get out of conference.
And I see two similar tiers in the Eastern Conference,
(01:03):
and we haven't taken time yet this summer to kind
of break that down. So at the tail end of
the show today, I'm going to rank the top seven
teams and the Eastern Conference into two different tiers and
just give quick breakdowns of why I see those teams
in those respective tiers. You guys know the joke before
we get started. To subscribe to the Hoops and I
YouTube channels. You don't miss any more of our videos.
Follow me on Twitter at underscore jcnlt so you guys
(01:24):
don't miss announcement. Still, forget about a podcast feed where
you get your podcast on our Hoops tonight. It's also
super helpful if you leave a rating and a review
on that front. Jackson's doing great work on our social
media feeds on Twitter, Instagram, Facebook and TikTok. Make sure
you guys follow us over there, and then, last but
not least, keep dropping mailbag questions in the YouTube comments.
We were recording a mailbag on Wednesday. We have a
(01:45):
big Wednesday. We've got Samus FONDIARRII who covers the Warriors
with the Light Years podcasts. Lots of drama going on
over there, basically the drama of nothing happening, and so
we're gonna have Sam come on the show and break
down for us his take on the Warriors off season.
But we're also be recording a mail bag that day.
So if you want to get mailbag questions in for
our Wednesday mail Bag, which will air on Friday, drop
(02:06):
them in the comments below this video. All right, let's
talk some basketball. So the Lakers made three moves over
the weekend. They cut Shake Milton, they cut Jordan Goodwin,
and they signed Marcus Smart at two years in eleven
million dollars. First of all, good luck to Jordan Goodwin
in the future. All of you Laker fans know and
they will all Laker fans will tell you that he's
(02:28):
a very useful NBA player, And I actually hope that
he eventually makes his way back to the Lakers at
some point down the line. I just think he's a
really useful player in what they try to do. If
it's a kind of a skill set that the Lakers
are still lacking to a certain extent in terms of
just a very high motor, defensive minded player that can
rebound really well for his size. And so I hope
(02:49):
he eventually makes his way back to the Lakers. But
if not, just good luck to Jordan Goodwin in the future.
I really really enjoyed rooting for him last year in
a Laker Jersey. I want to start by just giving
my shoal reaction to the Marcus Smart signing, just kind
of big picture before we go into some of the
more basketball detail and how he fits with the Lakers.
(03:09):
I really like Marcus. I think he's an excellent player,
and I think when healthy, he can help just about
every team in the NBA. You guys might remember me
spending a lot of time last summer talking about how
much I liked his fit alongside Desmond Bain and John Moran.
I wanted to see more of that coming into this season.
In the twenty twenty three twenty twenty four season, the
(03:31):
Grizzlies played one hundred and thirty minutes, only one hundred
and thirty because Marcus could only play twenty games that year,
But they played one hundred and thirty minutes with all
three of those guys Desmond Bain, John Morant, and Marcus
Smart on the court together, and they were really good.
They outscored teams by six point four points per one
hundred possessions. They were elite on defense. It was one
of their top five lineup combinations to play at least
(03:53):
one hundred minutes in that entire season. It. It just
makes a lot of sense. Marcus Smart is a impactful,
versatile perimeter defender when he's healthy, and he brought some
of that connective playmaking to their offense and weak side scoring,
and he just was a great fit with them. And
I always have viewed Marcus Smart as a ceiling raising
type of player when he's healthy, But he just hasn't
(04:16):
been able to stay on the court. Over the course
of the last two years, he played in a grand
total of fifty four games, and the last two seasons combined,
he's played over sixty one games in a season just
once in the last six seasons. So everything with Marcus
is theoretical in the sense that he just hasn't shown
the ability to stay on the court, especially in the
(04:38):
last couple of years. I've talked extensively about the Lakers
needing a starting caliber two or a starting caliber three
that is a professional two way player, a defender that
can contribute to what the team is trying to do
offensively instead of taking away from it the way that
a guy like Jared Vanderbilt does for the Lakers off
(04:59):
the bat. Marcus Smart, when healthy, Let's be very clear,
he is not just a good option as a starting
caliber two or three. He's a great option there. But
it's just like the conversation with Paul George and the
seventy six ers. Paul George is fully healthy, He's not
just a good option alongside MAXI and MB. He's a
(05:21):
great option there, But how confident are you, guys that
Paul George is going to be completely healthy for the
majority of next season. So that's where there's that big
question mark there is Like there's a version of this
where Marcus turns out to be exactly what the Lakers need,
but it's kind of threading a pretty narrow path in
order to get to that point. The move for me
(05:43):
continues to play into what I view as an extremely
high variance season for this Lakers team coming up in
the twenty twenty five to twenty six campaign. There's a
version of this where everyone stays healthy, everyone plays close
to their individual peaks, and they're like a top tier
contender that's all the table. Like what if Luca gets
in great shape and goes on a revenge campaign. What
(06:05):
if Lebron maintains playing at that second team all NBA level.
What if Lebron and Austin both improve as catch and
shoot players so they can fit more seamlessly off ball
next to Luca. What if DeAndre Ayton, in a contract year,
plays the best basketball of his career. What if Marcus
Smart returns to form as one of the best role
(06:27):
players in the league. That's a really fucking good team.
If all of those things happen. You'd be foolish to
think that that group couldn't win the title if all
of those things happen. But if just one or two
of those things goes the other way, they're playing team
Like if Marcus or DeAndre or Lebron struggle with injuries
(06:47):
all year and they're because they're dealing with nagging injuries,
they just kind of operated a level below what they're
capable of. They could easily drop in a Western conference
that's just stacked with really, really good teams, And so
it just feels very much like a high variant season
for this Lakers team. You told me they were a
top three seed and that they'd make the conference finals,
(07:08):
I'd be like, that is absolutely an achievable thing for
this Lakers team. But if you told me that they
were gonna make the play in and then squeak in
as a seven or eight seed and then get you know,
sent home in four or five games. That doesn't seem
out of the realm of possibility either. I mean it
just happened last year, right, So like just feels very
very high variance because of just the sheer gap between like,
(07:31):
you know, overweight balky knee Luca versus MVP of the
league level Luca or Lebron when he's banged up and
not himself versus the Lebron that we saw before his
growing injury last year. DeAndre Ayton, the aloof undisciplined player
in Portland versus some of the peaks that we saw
from him in Phoenix. The Marcus Smart that was a
(07:54):
rock solid starter for the Celtics for years versus the
guy that's been unable to stay on the floor. All
of those things are potential outcomes for the Lakers this year.
On an individual level. I want to give credit where
credits due. I've been critical of the Lakers for looking
entirely beyond the Lebron era with their assets. I think
it's a mistake because there is no guarantee that you
(08:17):
will ever be able to find a player as good
as this version of Lebron to put next to Luka Doncic. Like,
if you ask me right now, is it more likely
that the Lakers will eventually have another second team All
NBA or better player alongside Luca or that they won't.
I would argue it's more likely that they won't. It's
just hard. There's ten of them in the entire league, right,
(08:39):
That's what second team All NBA is, and Lebron, like
flat Lee, was playing at that level when Luca came
to the Lakers, So like, I don't think that there's
a guarantee that you're gonna find another guy like that.
In other words, in terms of top end talent, you
might not ever be as good as you are right
now in the Lukadancic era. So my approach, if I
(09:01):
was running the team would be geared more towards finding
ways to turn future based assets. Guys like Dalton Connect,
who I do not think is ready to contribute to
a winning team in a real dead series context yet
probably a few years away, probably and a first round
draft pick. I would be trying to turn those into
high quality starters in their twenties who can retain value
(09:25):
into the future alongside Luca. And by the way, I'm
not saying that they could have done that to this point,
that player hasn't really materialized yet. The summer isn't even over.
They could do it before the season, they could do
it at the deadline. I'm just saying I don't think
they will because I don't think the Lakers value that
high level starter nearly as much as they value a
shot at Giannis or a shot at Nikola Jokic. Right So, like,
(09:49):
I just think in terms of the overall like direction
of the team, they're thinking more towards the future and
the next great star to pair with Luca, rather than
try to capitalize on We have a second team all
NBA guy with Luca right now and Austin Reeves and
DeAndre Ayton. Why don't we try to maximize this. I
(10:09):
think their focus is mere towards the future. But if
you wanted to make a run with this Lebron and
Luca group without sacrificing any of your long term flexibility
within those confines, this front office has done a very
nice job this offseason. The Lakers needed two things mainly
(10:32):
this offseason, a professional two way starter at the two
or the three to balance out their starting lineup, and
they needed a starting caliber center, specifically one that would
fit skill set wise with Luka Donjic, and they successfully
obtained both of those guys. In theory, it just obviously
comes with a lot of potential downsides, which is why
(10:54):
you can get Marcus Smart in the open market at
two years eleven million and Deandreyton in the open market
two years and sixteen or seventeen million, whatever it was
that he ended up signing for. They were available at
those numbers because they come with the downsides Marcus Smart
with his health and eight and with his health and
his lack of professionalism. But within those confines, we got
(11:16):
to give the Lakers front office credit. They found two
starting caliber players essentially for free in terms of asset expenditure.
So credit to the Lakers, credit to Rob Polinka and
his entire staff for getting that done within those confines.
My one big hope to try to bridge the gap
between those two ideas, the idea that I'm trying to
pitch in terms of maximizing the present versus the other
(11:40):
half of the bridge, which is Polinka and his focus
more towards long term flexibility with Luca. My one big
hope is that if this team appears capable of making
a run in February, if all of those things go
the way I said that, they could Luca revenge campaign,
Lebron all MBA Austin and Lebron improving is catch and
(12:00):
shoot players eight in contract year dominance, Marcus Smart looks
like the Marcus Smart from Boston. If those things happen
and they're sitting as a two or three seed in February,
I hope at that point they make the sort of
aggressive move to try to capitalize on this era. Aggression
wins in the NBA, Oklahoma City loses if they don't
(12:22):
get Alex Crusoe and Isaiah Hartenstein. They were aggressive Boston,
the same thing with Drew Holliday and krisops Porzingis turned
a just another team towards the top of the league
into a bona fide top tier contender with offseason aggression.
Toronto obviously to a more dramatic extent with Kawhi, aggression wins.
If you want to win the big pot, sometimes you
(12:45):
have to push your chips in, and all I hope
is that the Lakers read the room and if they're
sitting there in January and February, and it's like, holy shit,
we got a chance to do this, Let's go for it.
We match up well with Denver because Jokic struggles guard
Luca and pick and roll. We match up well with
OKC because Lebron and Luca have such size advantages against
(13:06):
their perimeter defenders. If they are in that situation, I
hope they sense the opportunity. There is no big, scary
Boston in the Eastern Conference this year. This is a
gettable This is a gettible championship for teams that feel
like they can match up well with the top teams
in the West. And I think that the Lakers should
feel that way, at least in theory, if all of
(13:27):
those things shape out the way that they're capable of.
All right, let's talk some basketball fit. I'm going to
frame this entire discussion through the lens of Marcus being
healthy and close to his usual self. I don't really
see the point of having the conversation if that's not
the case. So from this point forward, let's just pretend
Marcus is Marcus. I've been seeing some debate among Laker
fans about where Marcus slots in the starting group like,
(13:50):
does he take Ruie's spot? Does he take Austin's spot?
The answer to me is pretty obvious. It's Ruey. He's
always been a bit redundant with Lebron over the years
as they play the same position. Well, so are Marcus
and Austin. Right, But I don't actually see it that way.
Your position isn't about what you can do on offense.
(14:12):
Ruey and Lebron fit beautifully on offense. Ruey's off ball
chemistry with Lebron is a cutter along the baseline and
as a weekside score that works wonderfully. Well, it's about
what you can do on defense. Ruey and Lebron are
both traditional low men help defender defense rebounder like weak
side defenders. Neither of them are quick enough to guard
(14:36):
opposing perimeter players at the three. That is where it
causes problems for them. Marcus Smart fills a defensive role
at a starting caliber level that the Lakers haven't had
since Max Christy and he was out sent out in
the Luca trade. Right, Marcus is a great option to
deploy on the other team's best best. In other words,
(15:03):
he's not redundant with any Laker in the starting lineup
on that side of the ball, so he's an immediate
great fit. He even brings scheme versatility. JJ Reddick likes
to switch a lot. Marcus Smart can pretty adequately defend
one through four, But if he wanted to run traditional
coverages like I'm at the level coverage with DeAndre Ayton
(15:25):
and pick and roll where you don't switch, or a
deeper drop, Marcus can do both. Marcus can pressure the
ball and back pressure and get physical with defenders and
get over the top of screens, So there's some scheme
versatility there. I also think he more appropriately slots Austin
as the second best perimeter defender on the team. That's
(15:46):
where I think he's equipped just fine. Most of the
issues with Austin over the years defensively had more to
do with him having to fill a role he should
never have had to fill. Like him, We're tossing the
ball up against the Warriors, and Austin's the primary defender
for Steph Curry, Like, that's not a great option, But
(16:07):
if he's the primary defender for Buddy Healed, I think
he can handle that. You see what I'm saying, And like,
obviously switching complicates that to a certain extent, but there
is a lot more versatilities in terms of scheme if
you have a traditional point of attack defender versus a
guy that's cosplaying as one because you simply don't have
one in the starting lineup. In general, a starting lineup
(16:31):
featuring Marcus Smart would have a much more balanced defensive look.
Marcus Smart feels that traditional athletic defensive guard that guards
the opposing best perimeter player, right, Luca functionally is that
skill guard you have to hide, just like you have
in so many teams around the league. You do this
with the Clippers with James Harden. You do this with
(16:52):
the Warriors with Steph You do this with the Hawks
with Trey Young. You do this with all of these
different teams. Dallas will do it with d' angelo Russell
this year. Like the skill guard that you're kind of
trying to hide on a player that he can hedge
and recover on blah blah blah. That's Lucas He's fine.
You can usually get away with one of those guys.
Austin functionally kind of slots in as like your guards,
(17:15):
the second best perimeter player, like a lock and trail
guy guarding like a movement shooter, like if you're playing Orlando,
he's gonna guard Desmond Baye right, or like he's gonna
guard the off ball scorer, the secondary scorer. And then
Lebron is your traditional lowman and Ayton is your traditional
athletic big that you can establish your your baseline scheme with. Now,
(17:36):
the Lakers are gonna score a shit ton of points.
We've talked about this. If they're healthy. DeAndre Ayton brings
that four out one in spacing threat as a role
man that should make this team very difficult to guard.
I think the Lakers are gonna score a lot of points,
so they don't need to be a like an amazing defense.
They just need to be a middle of the pack defense.
And I think they have a much better chance of
(17:58):
achieving that with a healthy Marcus Smart than they do
with a less healthy Marcus Smart or without him on
the roster. I also generally think in terms of starting
him over Ruy, I generally think Ruey has more value
as a utility player off the bench that you can
plug and play into different kinds of lineups or spots.
Starts like, oh, Marcus Smart is out, we just go
(18:20):
back to last year's starting lineup. Here's Ruey oh Lebron's
out well. Ruey can play the four, He'll play Lebron's position.
Austin happens to take a night off, Marcus can slot
up to the two. You play Ruey at the three.
He's like a sixth starter that also can be plugged
into a bunch of different bench looks. On offense, Marcus
has always been a streaky shooter. He didn't shoot well
(18:41):
in Memphis, shot well in a small sample in Washington,
but that's been the case in Boston forever. He's gonna
have games and stretches of games where he shoots really well,
and then games and stretches of games where he can't
make anything. He's just very streaky shooter. But he's pretty
solid at everything. He can play off the catch as
a spot up guy. He can play make out of
the middle of the floor and four on threes off
(19:02):
of Luca Blitz. If you guys remember in the twenty
twenty two finals, Marcus did a lot of really high
quality playmaking work in the middle of the floor. He
can run action with the bench group like his solid
pick and roll ball handler. He can at the very
least add to what the Lakers are doing defensively or offensively,
excuse me, rather than like what we've seen in the past,
their defensive personnel, guys like Van Do, guys like Gabe.
(19:24):
It's much more touch and go there, especially Van Do.
Smart is a more reliable offensive option there. So fingers
cross Lakers fans. If we can get a healthy Marcus
Smart for the entire season, that's a hell of a team.
But I'm just being honest, Like, when I saw the
alert come through and I looked down and I'm like, oh, sweet,
Marcus Smart with the Lakers. My first thought was like,
(19:45):
I'll believe it when I see it, just because it's
just so I just haven't seen Marcus be able to
sustain his like his ceiling personally on the floor without
breaking down physically over the last couple of years. I'm
hoping that's not the case. But that was just my
first thought when I saw it. It was like, I
really liked him in Memphis. I really wanted to see
him in Memphis, and he just couldn't stay on the floor.
(20:08):
Nothing says summer like long days, clutch plays and firing
off a few bets on the game, all with draft
Kings Sportsbook. As the season heats up, so do the bats.
When DraftKings Sportsbook, as you've covered with live betting, home
run props, odds, boosts, and more. Whether you're chasing dingers
or jumping in mid game, there's always action to be had.
Never bet on baseball before. It's easy. Just pick a
(20:30):
guy to go yard, hammer some live odds mid game,
or just ride with your squad and hope for the best.
No spreadsheets, just vibes and dingers. It's been a fun
Major League season. Aaron Judge hitting all sorts of home runs,
we got, show Heylkhani pitching again. My dbacks are still
kind of like struggling there in the NL West. It
is what it is. But here's something special for first timers.
(20:50):
New DraftKings customers. Bet five dollars and get one hundred
and fifty dollars in bonus bets instantly. Download the Draft
Kings Sportsbook app and use code hoops. That's code hoopsps
for new customers to get one hundred and fifty dollars
in bonus bets instantly when you bet just five bucks
only on DraftKings. The crown is yours, alrighty Chris Paul
(21:11):
signing with the Los Angeles Clippers. I love this signing.
I was super excited about this. Jackson and I were
joking before we started recording today. It's been kind of
fun seeing him go to LA and obviously seeing Dame
go back to Portland. It just kind of feels very
like nostalgic for US basketball fans to see these guys
going back home. But I love this signing even just
in terms of the basketball. First of all, I love
(21:34):
that Chris Paul gets to play for a serious team
that can actually use a skill set, but that doesn't
necessarily need him to be available every night. It's like
a low pressure, great basketball fit, and he gets to
be home in Los Angeles. Kind of a perfect set
of circumstances for him in the final year of his career,
and for the Clippers when everyone is healthy, when Bradley
(21:55):
Beal is playing, when Kawhi's playing, they don't necessarily need him,
so his aid and durability concerns are not concerns. But
they do have guys and Bradley Beal and Kawhi Leonard
that frequently missed time, and Chris is still somehow just
an incredibly reliable pick and roll ball handler in this league.
(22:18):
Chris even and he's again He's gonna be forty years
old this year, was one of the best pick and
roll ball handlers in the NBA. Last year, he ran
eight hundred and ninety two pick and rolls including passes
for a Spurs team that was full of young and
flawed players, and he generated nine hundred and fifty nine points.
(22:39):
That's one point zero eight points per possession including passes.
To give you an idea of where that ranks in
the NBA, there were twenty four players last year to
run at least eight hundred pick and rolls. Chris is
one point zero eight points per possession, ranked eighth on
that list, ahead of guys like Steph Curry, Anthony Edwards,
Trey Young, Jason Tate, James Hard, and Kate Cunningham. Despite
(23:02):
playing with a very young and flawed group of players
in San Antonio. It just comes down to that simple
conversation we've been having all summer with respect to advantage creation,
if you can come off of an action and take
advantage of the baked in advantages that are there and
the reads that come up based on what help defenders
(23:23):
are doing, and you can hit the pocket when it's open,
and hit the skip when they tag the roller, and
hit the swing when they dig down, and nail help
and make all of those simple basic reads, knock down
a mid range floater or jump shot if they happen
to stay home, and defend it two on two. If
you can make those simple decisions reads and shots, you
(23:44):
can set up all of these flawed players with advantages
with the guys sprinting at them, and if they have
a guy sprinting at them, all of them skyrocket inefficiency.
This is why guys like James Harden have so much
value in the league still. This is why guys like
D'Angelo Russell still have so much value in this league.
This is why you can put Tray Young. We're gonna
(24:05):
talk about it later. This is why you can put
Tray Young with a bunch of athletes and have them
still be a very good team, because even flawed athletes,
if you give them an advantage, can score the basketball.
Chris Paul is just still one of the very best
at that specific trait, which is so valuable in the NBA.
(24:27):
I think it helps a lot with that Brook Lopez
edition as well. The Clippers can now win. They're healthy.
Put together forty eight minutes of a really high level
pick and roll ball handler and a really high level
screening partner. You guys all know what Zoo can do.
He's done it with Harden for the last couple of
years now and it's looked beautiful. Brook Lopez is still
(24:48):
one of the best pick and pop guys in the league.
He scored one point two points per roleman touched last year.
That's amazing. That was top five in the NBA among
players to log at least two hundred roll man touches.
So the Clippers are going to have an extremely high
floor this year. They can provide forty eight minutes of
(25:09):
quality advantage creation with a high powered pick and roll partner,
with off ball talent and elite ISO scorer and Kawhi Leonard,
they've got great perimeter defenders man like I feel the
same way about him this year as I did last year.
I just I would be stunned if they slipped into
the plan, just because they are so well built to
succeed in the modern NBA. Even though three of their
(25:32):
four advantage creators have health issues, they can easily afford
to have one or two of those guys be out
of the game without experiencing much of a drop off
because they just have other guys that can slot in
and do more or less the same thing. This Clippers
team is going to be a lot of fun to
watch this year. I'm very, very excited for it. Man.
It's like a battle of LA for the second tier
(25:53):
in the Western Conference. Obviously, I don't think either of
them are as good as Denver, okay See or Houston,
but like once you get off of that top tier,
like there's a version of this that this Clippers team
is going to be really good, and then if the
Lakers are healthy, they can be really good too. It's
gonna be a couple of really really good elied LA
teams for us to cover this year. All right, let's
take our focus out to the Eastern Conference again. I
(26:16):
talked about how out in the West, my top tier
is some combination of Houston, Oklahoma City, and Denver, and
then after that it's the two LA teams, It's Minnesota,
it's Golden State. That's like the main group there. Maybe
San Antonio depending on how things shake up this year
with some of their young players. But that's like the
kind of two tiers out West. I similarly see a
couple of tiers like that out in the Eastern Conference.
(26:38):
I have two teams in the top tier, and then
I have five teams in the second tier. So I
want to just list those for you guys today and
give quick breakdowns for why I have those teams in
those tiers. So first in Tier one, the Cleveland Cavaliers
and the New York Knicks. Now with the Calves, I
understand why you would be extremely discouraged with their playoff
(27:01):
exit last year. I went on Cleveland Sports Radio a
few weeks ago and the hosts were pretty bummed out
and they were like, we saw your list before the playoffs,
how you had the Calves down at four, and like
we were all mad. And then turns out you were right,
and I like had to cut in and I'm like no, no, no, no, no, Like, yeah,
I wasn't as high on Cleveland as I was on
some other teams around the league, but let's be real
(27:24):
about what happened. I actually find myself higher on the
Calves than most after that disappointment. And it's not even
because the top of the East got weaker. That certainly
helps and we'll talk about that in a minute. But
Darius Garland was hurt, and I really think that was
the thing that prevented the Calves from operating at their
(27:46):
regular season peak. We just talked about it with advantage
creation with respect to Chris Paul, Darius Garland is the
guy who, when he's healthy, is so fucking quick that
nobody can stop him from getting where he needs to
get on the floor. When we talk about shooting variants,
it's like, oh, well, all these Calves shooters, they just
(28:06):
couldn't shoot in the playoffs. And it's like, it's just
not that simple. It's not a like it's not as
simple as just variants, or this guy got scared, or
whatever it might be. When you set up guys with
quality looks, they tend to go in. When Darius Garland
has a bad toe and he can't plant and change
(28:30):
direction and change speed and beat people off the dribble
as effectively, he's not breaking down the defense as well.
When he's not breaking down the defense as well, the
kickout reads aren't as clean. When the kickout reads aren't
as clean, those catch and shoot looks aren't the same.
They're more rushed. There's a better close out, they're more
smothered when those are not materializing. They then devolve into
(28:54):
Donovan Mitchell hero ball. That was the order of operations.
A big part of what made the Cavs so good
last year was Donovan pulled back and picked his spots
more and Darius Garland was that like engine that ran
the team in terms of their advantage creation. Darius was hurt,
(29:15):
DeAndre Hunter was hurt. Evan Mobley was hurt. I think
those two matter way less in this context, but Darius
being hurt it kind of felt like the head got
cut off the snake. In a lot of ways. They
logged a one twelve point six offensive rating versus Indiana,
like the thing that drove them all year, their unbelievable
(29:36):
offense abandoned them. And I do think it is connected
to that Garland injury. Now does that mean that I
think again? I ranked Cleveland fourth in my list of
championship contenders before the playoffs last year. I wasn't as
high on them as everyone else, But now it kind
of seems like everyone's like it's just Donovan Mitchell and
Evan Mobley and a bunch of dudes, and like there
are some things like even even Jared Allen. You don't
(29:57):
think Jared Allen's effectiveness was tanked by Darius Garland's injury
and his inability to get to spots that the way
he normally does. These things are all intricately connected, and
so I just believe that if they run it back
and they continue all of the basketball identity that they
(30:18):
built last year, and they just are a little bit
more particular about Darius Garland's health throughout the year and
just make sure he's ready to go when they get
to April. And then you add in that Boston's out
of it in Indiana, the team that was kind of
a bad matchup for you because of their ball pressure,
especially with Darius Garland's injury. If you remove those two
(30:39):
teams from the equation. By the way, Boston and Indiana
are not in these tiers for me. In either of
these tiers for me, Boston is nowhere near good enough
at the center position. They lost through holiday. It's Jalen Brown,
it's Anferny Simon's and it's a pretty substantial drop off
in talent there. So I don't think Boston has it.
Take Tyre's Halliburn and miles out of the picture. For
(31:01):
Indiana is going to be feisty. I think Boston will
be feisty just because they're well coached and they play
a beautiful brand of modern basketball. But they both feel
like third tier teams for me in the Eastern Conference
for this season. So you remove them from the equations,
and all of a sudden, it looks like there's a
pathway here for Cleveland. There's a pathway here for Cleveland
to get out of that conference. And you know what
(31:22):
basketball is all about, matchups your fastest Shit, what if
you're so fast and you catch a team like Denver
in the finals and you just run them off the
floor with your speed. There is a again, it's a
very narrow pathway, but there is a pathway here. And
I actually feel pretty good about Cleveland having a chance
to get out of the Eastern Conference this season and
(31:43):
give themselves a reasonable puncher's chance to hoist the trophy.
The Knicks. The Knicks got beat by Indiana on the margins.
You're bringing Mike Brown. He establishes a higher level attention
to detail that immediately gives you a better chance to
maximize the roster. They also added some valuable depth in
Jordan Clarkson and gershen YABUSELI hopefully they lean on their
(32:04):
depth more throughout the regular season. They suddenly are a
team that has a ton of playoff continuity. They're making
deep playoff runs every year. They're gonna do so again
in this coming season. This is a New York Knicks
team that is on the doorstep of potentially breaking through.
I have them as a top tier team out in
the East as well Tier two. These are teams that
(32:24):
all have just a puncher's chance to win the conference.
First year Atlanta Magic, and again, these aren't in any
particular order. I came very close to putting Orlando in
my top tier. I think if Jalen Suggs Wagner, and
Paulo Bonkaro can stay healthy, they could easily come out
and do some ass kicking this year and like legitimately
(32:46):
be competing for the top seed in the conference. It
ended up being health and then some of my concerns
with Jamal Mosley's offense that had me keep them down
in that second tier. But I think if the Sugs
and Bain fit alongside Franz and Paulo, so I think
it makes a ton of sense. I think Bayin in
particular brings a level of like screen shooting threat, off
screen shooting threat that could potentially skyrocket their ceiling on
(33:10):
the offensive end of the floor. I don't think they've
had a shooter that brings that level of fear. Again,
there's a lot of shooters in the NBA that we
will live with. Teams will live with taking shots on
the move with a rear view contest, whereas Desmond Bayan,
it's like, good luck. If you do that, he's going
to cook you. You're going to have to show up
at the level. As soon as you start showing up
(33:31):
at the level, it's just going to open up all
sorts of advantages for them to play off of. I
think that fit is beautiful. I think they're going to
be a pain in the ass team to beat four
times if they're healthy. The Atlanta Hawks, this team obviously
lacks any sort of championship ceiling, but they remind me
of the Clippers in the sense that they've spent the
last two offseasons just loading up on the type of
(33:53):
talent combinations that I think really work in the modern
NBA perimeter. Athletes that can defend and on the floor
and rebound and play with an advantage. Zachary Risache, Jalen Johnson,
Dyson Daniels, Alexander Walker. These are all guys that establish
an extremely high floor for a basketball team just because
(34:15):
of the way they can impact the game with their athleticism,
and when you put them in the context of a
supreme advantage creator like Trey Young, they all have higher
offensive utility than they would have elsewhere in the league.
Like Ni Kile, Alexander Walker is a pretty damn good
spot up shooter and he's been playing on a team
that doesn't move the ball particularly well over the last
(34:36):
few years. I love the Porzingis fit if he can
stay healthy. Trey Young is a drop coverage destroyer, but
over the years he has struggled when teams can effectively
switch ball screens with quality defenders. Kriss Porzingis gives them
another reliable way to beat a switching scheme because of
(34:58):
what he can do out of the post, and again,
when he's healthy, he's been one of the best switch
beaters out of the post in the entire NBA for
several years now. Ever, since that last year in Washington,
even a smaller move for Atlanta, like getting Luke Canard,
similar to what we were talking about with Desmond Baine.
Guys that can shoot coming off of screens like Canard
(35:20):
generate lots of natural advantages that make life easier for
their athletes. I am relatively certain that Atlanta will be
above the play in and I think they have a
really good shot at home court in the first round
of the playoffs. I would not be surprised to at
all if they were a top four seed this year.
Three More Milwaukee such a bizarre and funky roster. Obviously,
(35:45):
guys like Kevin Porter Junior and Cole Anthony is your
ball handler's high ceiling, low floor forwards like Kyle Kuzma
and Bobby Portis. Miles Turner is probably the second best
player on this team, but they have Giannis and Tenna
Kompo and a version of him that over the years
has been developing into more and more of a point forward,
(36:05):
a guy that can really read the floor and spray
out to shooters, and this Bucks front office has surrounded him.
You say what you want about the roster, and it's
got its issues. They surround him with quite a bit
of shooting. When it's Miles Turner out there, when it's
Bobby Portus out there, Gary Trent, Junior, AJ Green, like,
these dudes can knock down, catch and shoot jump shots
at a high cliff and so there's a lot of
(36:27):
value in Giannis's growing playmaking ability. Giannis has the opportunity
this year to do what Lebron did in twenty eighteen.
These teams above him are beatable. Again, I like Cleveland,
I like New York, I like all these teams I've
talked about. They're beatable. These are not world beating teams.
And it's Giannis with a ton of shooting around him.
(36:50):
It's a funky roster. Remember that twenty eighteen Cash team
was a really weird team, but like Lebron was able
to just kind of backpack that group to a finals birth.
I think Giannis has a similar chance this year if
he can reach that type of ceiling. But again, like
twenty eighteen, Lebron, I'd argue is the best basketball player
I've ever seen. So again, it's a really high level
(37:10):
to get to, but I do think Gianis has some
of that capability this season. The Detroit Pistons kind of
a strange offseason with the situation with Malik Beasley and
what he may or may not have been doing. But
they did an admirable job of replacing that talent with
guys like Karis Lavert and Duncan Robinson. They also lost
him Hardaway Junior, so they replaced both of those guys.
Duncan brings that hyper aggressive off ball scoring that we've
(37:32):
been talking about with guys like Desmond Baine and Luke Canard.
I actually think Duncan is a underrated playmaker in this
league out of screening action something you Piston's fans will
learn to love about him right away. I think he
almost like gives you more aggregate playmaking on the floor,
which I think brings a lot of value. And then
Karris Lavert is basically just a bigger and higher floor
version of Dennis Schroeder. I don't think he's quite as
(37:53):
high ceiling as Dennis Schroeder, but he's just in terms
of his size and athleticism, his ability to guard on
the perimeter, and just as ability to get a shot
off over the top. He's a bigger, higher floor version
of Dennis Schroeder. If Jade and Ivy can come back
healthy and if he can fit well with this group,
and if CAID continues to improve, they absolutely have a
puncher's chance to win the conference. And then lastly, we
(38:15):
have to have an obligatory seventy six ers appearance Clippers
East in the sense that if Joel Embiid and Paul
George are healthy, they immediately become one of the more
talented rosters in the conference, so you can never write
them off completely, even though I don't think any of
us actually think that's going to happen. So those are
the seven teams that I view in the top two
tiers in the Eastern Conference. All right, guys, it's all
(38:37):
half for today. He's always sincerely appreciate you guys for
supporting us and supporting the show again. We'll be back
on Wednesday with Samas fondi Arii, and we're also recording
a mailbag that day that's going to air on Friday,
so make sure you guys drop some mailbag questions in
the comments. I will see you guys on Wednesday.
Host
Jason Timpf
Popular Podcasts
Stuff You Should Know
If you've ever wanted to know about champagne, satanism, the Stonewall Uprising, chaos theory, LSD, El Nino, true crime and Rosa Parks, then look no further. Josh and Chuck have you covered.
The Joe Rogan Experience
The official podcast of comedian Joe Rogan.
Dateline NBC
Current and classic episodes, featuring compelling true-crime mysteries, powerful documentaries and in-depth investigations. Special Summer Offer: Exclusively on Apple Podcasts, try our Dateline Premium subscription completely free for one month! With Dateline Premium, you get every episode ad-free plus exclusive bonus content.