October 15, 2025 • 27 mins
With the NBA season right around the corner, Jason breaks down his top-10 TITLE CONTENDERS (not simply the best teams) heading into the 2025 season. He discusses why he has Nikola Jokic’s Denver Nuggets and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s Oklahoma City Thunder alone in a top tier with the Cleveland Cavaliers, Minnesota Timberwolves, Los Angeles Lakers, Los Angeles Clippers, Houston Rockets, New York Knicks, Golden State Warriors, and Milwaukee Bucks trailing behind.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
The volume. All right, welcoon to Hoops tonight. Here at
the volume Heavy Wednesday. Everybody, Oh love, you guys are
having a great week. It is time for our annual
(00:23):
twenty twenty five twenty twenty six NBA Contender rankings. This
is intended to be more of a quick breakdown of
my contender rankings. We did in depth season previews of
all thirty NBA teams. You can find those earlier on
our YouTube channel feed, but I want to kind of
just break the teams down into tears to give you
guys an idea of where I think these teams stands
(00:44):
strictly within the context of the ability to contend for
an NBA Championship. You guys know the drill before we
get started. To subscribe to the Hoops and I YouTube channels.
You don't miss any more of our videos. Follow me
on Twitter at underscore jcnlt so you guys don't miss
show announcements. Don't forget about a podcast feed where each
your podcast owner who tonight. It's also super helpful if
you leave a rating and a review on that front.
Jackson's doing incredible work on our social media feeds on Twitter, Instagram, Facebook,
(01:07):
and TikTok. Make sure you guys follow us over there.
The last but not least, keep dropping those mailbag questions
in the YouTube comments and we will hit them in
our mailbags throughout the remainder of the season. All right,
let's talk some basketball. So again, just going to list
these teams into three different tiers. I'm actually I'm gonna
have a top ten, but I'm also going to go
beyond the top ten because I want to kind of
go through the top three tiers of teams, starting from
(01:29):
the third tier being teams that have just the ever
slightest hope of maybe kind of sort of putting our
name in the hat to win a championship. More just
an acknowledgment of the really good teams in the NBA.
Then the second tier, which is going to be teams
that have a real shot, but it's a long shot, right,
and then the top tier, your traditional championship contenders that
(01:51):
check all of the boxes. So we're gonna actually work
from the top down today with our top tier contenders.
There are only two teams that I have in this tear,
Denver and Oklahoma City. These are the teams that check
every single box that you need for legitimate championship contention.
I wanted to kind of go over that concept a
little bit, So, first of all, I think you need
(02:12):
either a supreme talent advantage like the twenty twenty four
Boston Celtics, or you need a bona fide top tier
superstar one of those four dudes at the top of
the league right now in our player rankings, that was
Nikola Jokic, Luka, Doncic, Shae Yo, Just Alexander, Jannison, Tennan Kompo,
those four guys. I think you either need one of those,
(02:33):
or like Boston, five dudes who would make thirty million
dollars on the open market. In this case, both Denver
and Oklahoma City check that box through Nikola Jokic and
Shake Yo Just Alexander. I think you need a transcendently
great unit, a side of the floor where you're as
good or better than anyone else in the NBA. I
(02:54):
think Denver has that on offense, and I think Oklahoma
City has that on defense. I think your other needs
to be resilient enough for it not to undercut the
success of your other unit. Denver has shown the ability,
even after bad regular seasons, to be as good on
defense as they need to be to win when the
time comes. Oklahoma City was an elite regular season offense,
(03:17):
but as we went over in our season preview, they
were a really bad offense in their losses, generally an
inconsistent playoff offense. But to be clear, they were good
enough on that end of the floor when they needed
to be. I think you need depth. You need to
be able to survive the eighty two game grind and
be prepared for four two week playoff series. You need
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to have enough talent to not have to wear out
your best players during that stretches so that they're breaking
down in the playoffs. For instance, Golden State waiting so
long to make a trade wearing Steph Curry out he
pulls a hammy for the first time in his career
in a second round playoff series Denver last year they
weren't deep enough. They were leaning a lot on some
key guys that Aaron Gordon had to play more perimeter
(04:03):
defense than ever before. Guys were breaking down, especially Aaron Gordon,
when they got into that series. This year, Denver addressed
to that depth in addition to getting a player that
is going to prevent Aaron Gordon from having to guard
on the perimeter as much. In general, they should be
able to keep everybody's minutes down relative to where they were.
That should put them in a better position to handle
(04:24):
the eighty two game grind and Oklahoma City is both
deep and young, which is obviously going to set them
up well for that situation. And lastly, I think you
need to be devoid of a crippling weakness. Winning four
rounds will almost certainly put you in front of different
types of great teams, and when you face different types
(04:45):
of great teams, one of them is probably going to
be able to expose your biggest weakness. For instance, Luka
Doncic as a perimeter defender in previous rounds, he didn't
have to guard in space as much. They were able
to produce enough defense to win Right Boston, though, a
team that was truly able to space Luka doncij out
(05:07):
all of a sudden, his inability to contain the ball
in the perimeter became a crippling weakness for that Dallas team.
For example, I think Luca will need to become a
better defender in order to ever lead what we would
consider to be a bona fide top tier championship. Contender
that is utterly devoid of a crippling weakness. It remains
(05:29):
to be seen if conditioned Luca will be that kind
of guy in the future. Right, that's a question mark
for that Lakers team. But like, maybe it's a you
have a coach that is a mistake prone coach that
doesn't play to the team's strengths that could cost you
a series. Or maybe it's a very flawed player in
your best lineups that could be a breaking point. Rudy
(05:51):
Gobayer for Minnesota's offense against truly elite defenses is an
example of this type of weakness. Right, Neither Oklahoma City
nor Denver has a crippling weakness like that. To be clear,
I still think you can win a championship if you
have a flaw or two in one of those categories
that just listed, but your margin for error becomes much smaller,
(06:14):
And I think that's where you dip into second tier contention.
When you have a question mark in one or two
of those areas, that's where you need favorable stuff to
happen for you. You need to catch a good matchup,
you need some luck. Right, But Denver and Oklahoma City
are the only two teams in the entire NBA this
year that I think check all of those boxes for
(06:34):
bona fide top tier championship contender. My number one team
and my championship contenders this year is the Denver Nuggets.
So I have Oklahoma City and Denver on equal footing
in this year, to be clear. But the reason why
I'm giving Denver a slight nod stems from the simple
fact that I think Denver matches up really well with
Oklahoma City. There are some very specific reasons why an
(06:57):
inferior version of this Denver team last year managed to
push Oklahoma City to the brink. They have the best
player in the series, nikol Jokich, and yes, Oklahoma City
did play him into some rough games, but generally speaking,
he was the one offensive player who was able to
consistently generate great shots for his team against that Oklahoma
(07:18):
City defense. They struggled to pay those shots off at
times where the depth and talent will help this year,
but Nikolajokich was able to break down Oklahoma City's defense
in two. Denver is just the kind of high IQ
defense that can make Oklahoma City uncomfortable by forcing them
to think they had to methodically break them down, possession
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by possession against different coverages, making good decisions, making long
jump shots. Essentially, Denver does a good job of playing
Oklahoma City into their weaknesses, and this Denver team is
much deeper and much more talented than they were last
year they played series tomorrow. I would pick Denver to
(08:02):
win in six or seven games, and that is why
Denver is my championship favorite at this point. Now, for
Oklahoma City, the case lies in internal improvement. I'm not
saying there's some massive gap here. I think it's incredibly close,
and if they get that type of if internal improvement,
they absolutely can beat Denver and become the first repeat
(08:24):
champion since the twenty eighteen Warriors. I said I'd pick
Denver to win a series that starts tomorrow. We don't
know where Shay or JDub or Chet will be as
basketball players by the time late May comes around. A
lot can change for all three of those guys. If
they stand pat or only make very minor improvements, I
(08:47):
think they're gonna lose to Denver. If they make substantial improvements,
they're gonna hoist the trophy again. That's their pathway. For me,
I'm looking at Denver because I like the matchup with
Oklahoma City. It's the best player in the league with
the best roster he's ever had. As much as I
like that Oklahoma City team, I think there's still a
(09:08):
couple of years away from being just like a like
every season where the very best playoff team and we're
not going to lose. But you know, four or five
playoff games in an entire playoff run like that's going
to require some internal provement for the improvement for them
to get to that point. Maybe they get here there
this year. Again, they're in that same tier with Denver.
I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if Oklahoma City one,
(09:29):
but I'm giving the slight edge to Denver based on
the matchup and having the best the best player in
the series. Second tier contenders, these are teams that are
lacking in one or two of the key areas that
I listed earlier, but they're strong enough overall to have
a legit chance to win the title if things break
their way, Like what if Denver and Oklahoma City play
(09:50):
each other in Round two because Denver has a Jamal
Murray injury and slips to the four seed. And suddenly
Denver and Oklahoma City are playing in the second round
and one of the gets knocked out. And what if
you happen to match up really well with the other one,
Or what if you're in the East and you only
have to face one of those teams anyway, Or what
(10:11):
if injuries go your way, you stay healthy all year,
a couple of your key opponents do not, maybe a
key swing player on your team pops for you. That
pathway exists. It's just a longer shot than the teams
that are in the upper tier. That's what makes up
this second tier of contenders. I have seven teams in
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Tennessee or Virginia. Number three, and I think this is
(12:04):
the team that is clearly the top of this tier
because of circumstance, the Cleveland Cavaliers. The Cavaliers check every
box except for the top tier Superstarbucks. They're deep, they
have an elite unit. They were the only offense in
the league last year to crack a one twenty offensive rating. Obviously,
their offense fell apart in the postseason, but as we
(12:25):
talked about in our season preview, I'm a big believer
that Darius Garland's turf tow was just a devastating type
of injury for that type of offense that depended on
his dribble penetration. Right, their defense is plenty good enough
if their offense is clicking at its peak level. Again,
they have the depth they need to survive the season
and they don't have a massive weakness. But the biggest
(12:47):
part of it is they play in the East. That
was ultimately what gave them the number three spot. For me,
the pathway is just so clear for Cleveland. They're already
the best team in the East. The Knicks are the
only team in the conference that really has the talent
and veteran experience to challenge them, and the Knicks have
literally underachieved constantly outside of the Celtics series since they
(13:09):
traded for Karl Anthony Towns. Right, So you win the
East and you beat the battered remains of whoever survives
the Western Conference. Specifically, I think Cleveland's combination of speed
and shooting makes them a real upset threat against a
team like Denver, who can struggle to guard teams that
can really space them out and pick and roll. So
(13:31):
win the East, pray for Denver to make it out
of the West. Upset Denver, you're hoisting the trophy that
clearly defines for me a pathway that I think makes
them the obvious number three team on this list. Number
four the team I'm sick of underrating the Minnesota Timberwolves.
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Another team that checks most of the boxes. They have depth,
they have an elite unit, their defense, their other unit
is plenty good enough. Their offense just have two question marks.
Will Ant make the leap to true superstardom this year?
That will require him becoming a dependable night to night
playoff score, not just against teams in the first and
(14:12):
second round, but especially in the conference finals, where he's
ran into teams that have elite rim protection in addition
to athletes that can match up with him. That is
the barrier between Ant being the fifth best player in
the league who's the best player on the next tier,
or the fifth best player in the league who's in
that tier with the other four guys at the top
(14:33):
of the league. The second question mark is Gobert. He's
a big part of why they struggle against elite defense
in the late rounds. He gums up the offense for
him with his inability to catch and finish anything in
traffic that isn't a wide open dunk. The pathway for
the Wolves is Ant taking that leap, becoming that reliable
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night to night superstar regardless of opponent the postseason, and
I think they need to catch some favorable matchups. Unfortunately,
with Gobert and the massive leap Ant needs to make,
I don't think they can beat Oklahoma City as currently constructed,
So they need Denver to drop to the four seed.
They need Denver to beat Oklahoma City in round two.
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Minnesota's had Denver's number for years now. They absolutely can
upset them in the series, then they're in the finals.
They have a great chance to hoist the trophy. That's
the pathway for the Minnesota Timberwolves. But the big fear
for me with them is I'm having a really hard
time even thinking of a way that they can beat
the Oklahoma City Thunder in a playoff series. Number five
the Los Angeles Lakers. They have two massive question marks.
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Their defense on paper doesn't appear close to good enough.
In general, I don't think they're athletic enough overall as
a basketball team, and they have two massive health question
marks forty one year old Lebron James and Marcus Smart,
who hasn't been able to stay on the floor for
two straight seasons. But they do check the other boxes
pretty well. Luka Doncic is the only player in this
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tier of seven teams that I consider to be a
bona fide top tier superstar, and I think he's poised
for the best season of his career. So that gives
the Lakers kind of like an ace in the hole
that the other teams in this tier do not have,
Like Luca absolutely could stare down Shay or nikoley Jokich
in a series and outplay them. That feels very unlikely
(16:27):
for any other star in this tier. Other guys like
Anthony Edwards, Steph Curry, Kawhi Leonard, Kevin Durant, Jalen Brunson.
Those guys could outplay those top dudes for a game
or two, but you'd be shocked if they like outplayed
Jokich er Shay for a whole series. Right, Luca is
that level of talent, and that's what makes the Lakers
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different than the other teams in this tier. I do
think they'll have a truly elite unit their offense. I
think they'll be in the one eighteen to one twenty
range with their offensive rating this year, and then with
the additions of DeAndre and Marcus Martin Jake while only
losing Dorian Finney Smith out of their core rotation, that
adds some much needed depth to their rotation. The path
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just requires a lot to go right for them. They
need this version of Luca in peak shape to be
less of a defensive week point. Like we talked about earlier,
they need Smart, Aton and Lebron to all stay healthy,
and they need to find a way to be a
mediocre defense either through internal factors like health and just
overall commitment down the roster or what I think they need,
(17:29):
which is a trade a high level perimeter athlete, someone
along the lines of Andrew Wiggins for example. One last
note for the Lakers, I think they present some problems
for both Denver and Oklahoma City, which makes them an
upset threat. They can space Denver out and pick and
roll with Luka Doncic, and they have the ability to
attack Oklahoma City's lack of perimeter size with their big
(17:52):
perimeter shot creators in Lebron and Luca. To be clear,
I'd pick both teams against the Lakers at this point.
I just think you need to be able to cause
a real problem for a team in order to upset them,
and the Lakers can present real problems to both of
their teams, and we actually saw that bear out in
regular season games last year. So again, bigger weaknesses than
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some of the other teams in this tier, but a
bigger ace in the hole in the form of having
a top tier superstar. That lands the Lakers at number five,
number six the Los Angeles Clippers. The Clippers also check
most of the boxes. They have an elite unit their defense,
their offense is plenty good enough. They have real depth.
It's older depth, but they do have real depth. They
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just have two big question marks. They don't have a
top tier superstar anymore. Kawhi failed to reach that level
last year even when he was healthy, and they have
a crippling weakness in the form of James Harden and
his annual playoff collapses, especially late in big series. The
pathway for them is very simple. What happened with Kawhi
and the Nuggets series has to be an outlier. He
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has to be able to get back to the level
he was at in his previous playoff runs when he
was healthy, when he was a legit, bona fide top
tier superstar. If Kawai can get there when the time
is right in a big playoff series, then they suddenly
vault up to top tier contention. Because this is a
really strong and well built roster. They're deep with perimeter defense,
(19:17):
they're very athletic, they've got rim protection in Zubots. Overall,
it's just a very talented roster that is well built
for the modern NBA. They're well coached. They've got a
floor raising offensive talent in the regular season in James
Harden and the ceiling raising offensive talent and Kawhi Leonard
in the playoffs. It just requires Kawhi to be that
ace in the hole, the same way I was talking
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about Luka Doncic being for the Lakers. If Kawhi can
get to that level, they vault all of these teams
into that number third spot, that three spot. But we've
just been waiting on that with Kawhi for years, and
it actually seems to be trending away from that rather
than closer to that number seven. The Houston Rockets Houston.
To be clear, for me, had Fred Vanvlee not gotten hurt,
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would have been at the bottom of the top tier
of contenders for me in that number three spot because
they would have checked all of the boxes really well.
They wouldn't have had a top tier superstar, but I
think they would have had a massive talent advantage over
most teams. That roster was stacked. When they were healthy,
they would have had an elite unit their defense. They'd
be plenty good enough on offense. When healthy, they would
(20:23):
have depth, they wouldn't have any crippling weakness. The problem
is is the loss of Fred van Vliet just chops
them right off at the knees in two key areas,
it takes that talent advantage to something far less substantial,
to where suddenly their lack of a true top tier
superstar would be more glaring. And it creates a crippling weakness,
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specifically a lack of ball handling, and I think that
would just about guarantee a loss for them against a
team like Oklahoma City. Okay see, in general, was a
team I was worried about for Houston. I think Chet
is a super unique weapon to be able to deploy
on someone like Kevin Rant in a playoffs playoff series.
We saw more examples of that this summer in some
(21:04):
of the one on one footage and Katie was hitting
some super tough shots over Chet. But like Chet can
make kat work in a way that many defenders can't.
And even with Fred van Vliet, I think they would
have strugged against Oklahoma City's ball pressure. But the loss
of Fred van Vliet feels like a death sentence. So
I have Houston down at seven for now, But they're
probably the most likely team out of any of these
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seven teams in this tier to eventually jump up into
the top tier because they're they're probably gonna make a trade,
and if they nail the right trade for the right
ball handler, all of a sudden, they vault right back
up towards the top of this list. Number eight. The
New York Knicks a lot of question marks, but also
(21:48):
a lot of upside. Right Like, they had an elite
offense in the regular season, but it fell apart against Indiana,
and in order to win a championship, they're gonna need
Mike Brown to be able to find a way to
make their offense resilient from round to round depending on matchups. Right,
their defense is more like a crippling weakness. As I've discussed,
I think Kat is just too mistake prone to build
a championship capable defense around. In our season preview, we
(22:11):
discussed some options there. Mike Brown's gonna have as a
work cutout for him. They do not have a top
tier superstar or a supreme talent advantage, but I do
think they have plenty of death so they need several
key things to go right. They need Mike Brown to
shore up the playoff offense. They need Mike Brown to
make the defense with Kat work against the best teams
(22:34):
in the league. But the reason why I have them
on this list anyway, despite the fact that they have
question marks on so many of these key championship contention categories.
Is because they're in the East. You get through Cleveland
somehow and you're right there in the finals. And again,
like similar to what I talked about with Cleveland, if
you catch Denver a team that can struggle with spaced
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out pick and roll, they're at least an upset threat there.
But all of those weaknesses have them towards the bottom
of this tier. Lastly, at number nine, the Golden State Warriors.
I actually think this Golden State team when they're healthy,
is clearly better than a team like the Knicks, but
their age, combined with a brutal Western Conference playoff field,
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is what put them at the bottom. For me, it's
just going to be so hard for them to make
it through eighty two games and three playoff rounds against
all teams that are likely going to be higher teams
on this list, teams that we've already listed, but when
they're healthy. To be clear, I'm very high on them
as a basketball team. I'm a huge believer in Steph
is the third best offensive player in the entire NBA,
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even still at age thirty seven. I think the Jimmy,
Horford Draymond front court will be really good defensively when
they're all healthy, And for all to talk about their age,
it's more of just like a can those guys survive
long enough to be what they need to be in
the postseason? Like in the regular season context, I actually
think Steve Kerr in that front office have always done
a really nice job of finding good young players that
(24:01):
can play regular season shifts. So like the age thing,
it's less a depth for the regular season and more
like a if they ended up in a second round
series against Oklahoma City or Denver, would Steph, Jimmy, Draymond,
and Al all be at their relative ceilings at that point?
And it's just a long shot. For me. I'm a
(24:24):
big believer in the team. I don't think it's a
coincidence that they won as many games as they did
after the Jimmy trade. They had an elite defense, the
offense with Steph was plenty good enough. They had again
the end of the rotation depth with young players. They
had an elite coach. Ultimately, what prevents them from being
a top tier contender is their lack of top end talent, right,
like Steph is too old to be a bona fide
(24:45):
top tier superstar, and they certainly don't have a massive
talent advantage. But what keeps them at the bottom of
this second tier is a really bad combination of being
in a brutal Western conference with a very old core
of players that's unlikely to s survive the grind. But
make no mistake, if those dudes somehow find themselves healthy
in the big spots late in the season, you'd be
(25:07):
foolish not to take them seriously, especially if Steph can
get back to that like twenty seven points per game
in the postseason, where then all of a sudden he's
playing like a bona fide top tier superstar. Those are
the nine teams that I think have a real shot.
There's a third tier. These are all teams that are
extreme long shots. I just more want to list these
(25:28):
is what I consider to be the legitimately very good
teams in the league that are beneath those top two tiers,
either due to strong roster construction or a supremely gifted
star player. Right, I'm gonna just list them, and then
I'm gonna give you guys who I'll pick as my
tenth team, the team that's the top team in this tier.
I have the Milwaukee Bucks, the Detroit Pistons, they Orlando Magic,
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the Atlanta Hawks, the Dallas Mavericks, the Miami Heat, the
San Antonio Spurs, the Philadelphia seventy six Ers, and the
Memphis Grizzlies. These are the teams that I'm putting in
that third tier that I just want to shout out
as really good basketball teams. If I had to pick
a team from that list to round out the top
ten as being the best team from the third tier,
it's gonna be Milwaukee because of Yannis. Similar to what
(26:11):
I was talking about with the Lakers, having one of
the true top tier superstars in the league can make
up for a lot of other issues, and Giannis is
still very much one of those guys. The reason why
I left them off the second tier is because they
are rife with flaws. Once you get past Giannis, they
are super light on talent compared to all of those teams.
(26:32):
They have some gaping weaknesses in terms of aggregate ball
handling as well as perimeter defense and overall team speed
and athleticism. So they have some massive flaws that prevent
them from really joining into that second tier. But I
think they're clearly the best team in that third tier,
just based on the fact that they have one of
the top four players in the entire NBA. All Right, guys,
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it's all I have for today is always to sincerely
appreciate you guys for supporting us and supporting the show.
We'll be back on Friday with a mailbag, and the
next week we're starting to sing up. We got a
we got an NBA basketball game on Tuesday. So as always,
I appreciate you guys, and we will see you on Friday. M. M.
The volume. All right, welcoon to Hoops tonight. Here at
the volume Heavy Wednesday. Everybody, Oh love, you guys are
having a great week. It is time for our annual
(00:23):
twenty twenty five twenty twenty six NBA Contender rankings. This
is intended to be more of a quick breakdown of
my contender rankings. We did in depth season previews of
all thirty NBA teams. You can find those earlier on
our YouTube channel feed, but I want to kind of
just break the teams down into tears to give you
guys an idea of where I think these teams stands
(00:44):
strictly within the context of the ability to contend for
an NBA Championship. You guys know the drill before we
get started. To subscribe to the Hoops and I YouTube channels.
You don't miss any more of our videos. Follow me
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(01:07):
and TikTok. Make sure you guys follow us over there.
The last but not least, keep dropping those mailbag questions
in the YouTube comments and we will hit them in
our mailbags throughout the remainder of the season. All right,
let's talk some basketball. So again, just going to list
these teams into three different tiers. I'm actually I'm gonna
have a top ten, but I'm also going to go
beyond the top ten because I want to kind of
go through the top three tiers of teams, starting from
(01:29):
the third tier being teams that have just the ever
slightest hope of maybe kind of sort of putting our
name in the hat to win a championship. More just
an acknowledgment of the really good teams in the NBA.
Then the second tier, which is going to be teams
that have a real shot, but it's a long shot, right,
and then the top tier, your traditional championship contenders that
(01:51):
check all of the boxes. So we're gonna actually work
from the top down today with our top tier contenders.
There are only two teams that I have in this tear,
Denver and Oklahoma City. These are the teams that check
every single box that you need for legitimate championship contention.
I wanted to kind of go over that concept a
little bit, So, first of all, I think you need
(02:12):
either a supreme talent advantage like the twenty twenty four
Boston Celtics, or you need a bona fide top tier
superstar one of those four dudes at the top of
the league right now in our player rankings, that was
Nikola Jokic, Luka, Doncic, Shae Yo, Just Alexander, Jannison, Tennan Kompo,
those four guys. I think you either need one of those,
(02:33):
or like Boston, five dudes who would make thirty million
dollars on the open market. In this case, both Denver
and Oklahoma City check that box through Nikola Jokic and
Shake Yo Just Alexander. I think you need a transcendently
great unit, a side of the floor where you're as
good or better than anyone else in the NBA. I
(02:54):
think Denver has that on offense, and I think Oklahoma
City has that on defense. I think your other needs
to be resilient enough for it not to undercut the
success of your other unit. Denver has shown the ability,
even after bad regular seasons, to be as good on
defense as they need to be to win when the
time comes. Oklahoma City was an elite regular season offense,
(03:17):
but as we went over in our season preview, they
were a really bad offense in their losses, generally an
inconsistent playoff offense. But to be clear, they were good
enough on that end of the floor when they needed
to be. I think you need depth. You need to
be able to survive the eighty two game grind and
be prepared for four two week playoff series. You need
(03:41):
to have enough talent to not have to wear out
your best players during that stretches so that they're breaking
down in the playoffs. For instance, Golden State waiting so
long to make a trade wearing Steph Curry out he
pulls a hammy for the first time in his career
in a second round playoff series Denver last year they
weren't deep enough. They were leaning a lot on some
key guys that Aaron Gordon had to play more perimeter
(04:03):
defense than ever before. Guys were breaking down, especially Aaron Gordon,
when they got into that series. This year, Denver addressed
to that depth in addition to getting a player that
is going to prevent Aaron Gordon from having to guard
on the perimeter as much. In general, they should be
able to keep everybody's minutes down relative to where they were.
That should put them in a better position to handle
(04:24):
the eighty two game grind and Oklahoma City is both
deep and young, which is obviously going to set them
up well for that situation. And lastly, I think you
need to be devoid of a crippling weakness. Winning four
rounds will almost certainly put you in front of different
types of great teams, and when you face different types
(04:45):
of great teams, one of them is probably going to
be able to expose your biggest weakness. For instance, Luka
Doncic as a perimeter defender in previous rounds, he didn't
have to guard in space as much. They were able
to produce enough defense to win Right Boston, though, a
team that was truly able to space Luka doncij out
(05:07):
all of a sudden, his inability to contain the ball
in the perimeter became a crippling weakness for that Dallas team.
For example, I think Luca will need to become a
better defender in order to ever lead what we would
consider to be a bona fide top tier championship. Contender
that is utterly devoid of a crippling weakness. It remains
(05:29):
to be seen if conditioned Luca will be that kind
of guy in the future. Right, that's a question mark
for that Lakers team. But like, maybe it's a you
have a coach that is a mistake prone coach that
doesn't play to the team's strengths that could cost you
a series. Or maybe it's a very flawed player in
your best lineups that could be a breaking point. Rudy
(05:51):
Gobayer for Minnesota's offense against truly elite defenses is an
example of this type of weakness. Right, Neither Oklahoma City
nor Denver has a crippling weakness like that. To be clear,
I still think you can win a championship if you
have a flaw or two in one of those categories
that just listed, but your margin for error becomes much smaller,
(06:14):
And I think that's where you dip into second tier contention.
When you have a question mark in one or two
of those areas, that's where you need favorable stuff to
happen for you. You need to catch a good matchup,
you need some luck. Right, But Denver and Oklahoma City
are the only two teams in the entire NBA this
year that I think check all of those boxes for
(06:34):
bona fide top tier championship contender. My number one team
and my championship contenders this year is the Denver Nuggets.
So I have Oklahoma City and Denver on equal footing
in this year, to be clear. But the reason why
I'm giving Denver a slight nod stems from the simple
fact that I think Denver matches up really well with
Oklahoma City. There are some very specific reasons why an
(06:57):
inferior version of this Denver team last year managed to
push Oklahoma City to the brink. They have the best
player in the series, nikol Jokich, and yes, Oklahoma City
did play him into some rough games, but generally speaking,
he was the one offensive player who was able to
consistently generate great shots for his team against that Oklahoma
(07:18):
City defense. They struggled to pay those shots off at
times where the depth and talent will help this year,
but Nikolajokich was able to break down Oklahoma City's defense
in two. Denver is just the kind of high IQ
defense that can make Oklahoma City uncomfortable by forcing them
to think they had to methodically break them down, possession
(07:41):
by possession against different coverages, making good decisions, making long
jump shots. Essentially, Denver does a good job of playing
Oklahoma City into their weaknesses, and this Denver team is
much deeper and much more talented than they were last
year they played series tomorrow. I would pick Denver to
(08:02):
win in six or seven games, and that is why
Denver is my championship favorite at this point. Now, for
Oklahoma City, the case lies in internal improvement. I'm not
saying there's some massive gap here. I think it's incredibly close,
and if they get that type of if internal improvement,
they absolutely can beat Denver and become the first repeat
(08:24):
champion since the twenty eighteen Warriors. I said I'd pick
Denver to win a series that starts tomorrow. We don't
know where Shay or JDub or Chet will be as
basketball players by the time late May comes around. A
lot can change for all three of those guys. If
they stand pat or only make very minor improvements, I
(08:47):
think they're gonna lose to Denver. If they make substantial improvements,
they're gonna hoist the trophy again. That's their pathway. For me,
I'm looking at Denver because I like the matchup with
Oklahoma City. It's the best player in the league with
the best roster he's ever had. As much as I
like that Oklahoma City team, I think there's still a
(09:08):
couple of years away from being just like a like
every season where the very best playoff team and we're
not going to lose. But you know, four or five
playoff games in an entire playoff run like that's going
to require some internal provement for the improvement for them
to get to that point. Maybe they get here there
this year. Again, they're in that same tier with Denver.
I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if Oklahoma City one,
(09:29):
but I'm giving the slight edge to Denver based on
the matchup and having the best the best player in
the series. Second tier contenders, these are teams that are
lacking in one or two of the key areas that
I listed earlier, but they're strong enough overall to have
a legit chance to win the title if things break
their way, Like what if Denver and Oklahoma City play
(09:50):
each other in Round two because Denver has a Jamal
Murray injury and slips to the four seed. And suddenly
Denver and Oklahoma City are playing in the second round
and one of the gets knocked out. And what if
you happen to match up really well with the other one,
Or what if you're in the East and you only
have to face one of those teams anyway, Or what
(10:11):
if injuries go your way, you stay healthy all year,
a couple of your key opponents do not, maybe a
key swing player on your team pops for you. That
pathway exists. It's just a longer shot than the teams
that are in the upper tier. That's what makes up
this second tier of contenders. I have seven teams in
this tier. Today's show is brought to you by our
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Tennessee or Virginia. Number three, and I think this is
(12:04):
the team that is clearly the top of this tier
because of circumstance, the Cleveland Cavaliers. The Cavaliers check every
box except for the top tier Superstarbucks. They're deep, they
have an elite unit. They were the only offense in
the league last year to crack a one twenty offensive rating. Obviously,
their offense fell apart in the postseason, but as we
(12:25):
talked about in our season preview, I'm a big believer
that Darius Garland's turf tow was just a devastating type
of injury for that type of offense that depended on
his dribble penetration. Right, their defense is plenty good enough
if their offense is clicking at its peak level. Again,
they have the depth they need to survive the season
and they don't have a massive weakness. But the biggest
(12:47):
part of it is they play in the East. That
was ultimately what gave them the number three spot. For me,
the pathway is just so clear for Cleveland. They're already
the best team in the East. The Knicks are the
only team in the conference that really has the talent
and veteran experience to challenge them, and the Knicks have
literally underachieved constantly outside of the Celtics series since they
(13:09):
traded for Karl Anthony Towns. Right, So you win the
East and you beat the battered remains of whoever survives
the Western Conference. Specifically, I think Cleveland's combination of speed
and shooting makes them a real upset threat against a
team like Denver, who can struggle to guard teams that
can really space them out and pick and roll. So
(13:31):
win the East, pray for Denver to make it out
of the West. Upset Denver, you're hoisting the trophy that
clearly defines for me a pathway that I think makes
them the obvious number three team on this list. Number
four the team I'm sick of underrating the Minnesota Timberwolves.
(13:51):
Another team that checks most of the boxes. They have depth,
they have an elite unit, their defense, their other unit
is plenty good enough. Their offense just have two question marks.
Will Ant make the leap to true superstardom this year?
That will require him becoming a dependable night to night
playoff score, not just against teams in the first and
(14:12):
second round, but especially in the conference finals, where he's
ran into teams that have elite rim protection in addition
to athletes that can match up with him. That is
the barrier between Ant being the fifth best player in
the league who's the best player on the next tier,
or the fifth best player in the league who's in
that tier with the other four guys at the top
(14:33):
of the league. The second question mark is Gobert. He's
a big part of why they struggle against elite defense
in the late rounds. He gums up the offense for
him with his inability to catch and finish anything in
traffic that isn't a wide open dunk. The pathway for
the Wolves is Ant taking that leap, becoming that reliable
(14:58):
night to night superstar regardless of opponent the postseason, and
I think they need to catch some favorable matchups. Unfortunately,
with Gobert and the massive leap Ant needs to make,
I don't think they can beat Oklahoma City as currently constructed,
So they need Denver to drop to the four seed.
They need Denver to beat Oklahoma City in round two.
(15:21):
Minnesota's had Denver's number for years now. They absolutely can
upset them in the series, then they're in the finals.
They have a great chance to hoist the trophy. That's
the pathway for the Minnesota Timberwolves. But the big fear
for me with them is I'm having a really hard
time even thinking of a way that they can beat
the Oklahoma City Thunder in a playoff series. Number five
the Los Angeles Lakers. They have two massive question marks.
(15:44):
Their defense on paper doesn't appear close to good enough.
In general, I don't think they're athletic enough overall as
a basketball team, and they have two massive health question
marks forty one year old Lebron James and Marcus Smart,
who hasn't been able to stay on the floor for
two straight seasons. But they do check the other boxes
pretty well. Luka Doncic is the only player in this
(16:05):
tier of seven teams that I consider to be a
bona fide top tier superstar, and I think he's poised
for the best season of his career. So that gives
the Lakers kind of like an ace in the hole
that the other teams in this tier do not have,
Like Luca absolutely could stare down Shay or nikoley Jokich
in a series and outplay them. That feels very unlikely
(16:27):
for any other star in this tier. Other guys like
Anthony Edwards, Steph Curry, Kawhi Leonard, Kevin Durant, Jalen Brunson.
Those guys could outplay those top dudes for a game
or two, but you'd be shocked if they like outplayed
Jokich er Shay for a whole series. Right, Luca is
that level of talent, and that's what makes the Lakers
(16:47):
different than the other teams in this tier. I do
think they'll have a truly elite unit their offense. I
think they'll be in the one eighteen to one twenty
range with their offensive rating this year, and then with
the additions of DeAndre and Marcus Martin Jake while only
losing Dorian Finney Smith out of their core rotation, that
adds some much needed depth to their rotation. The path
(17:08):
just requires a lot to go right for them. They
need this version of Luca in peak shape to be
less of a defensive week point. Like we talked about earlier,
they need Smart, Aton and Lebron to all stay healthy,
and they need to find a way to be a
mediocre defense either through internal factors like health and just
overall commitment down the roster or what I think they need,
(17:29):
which is a trade a high level perimeter athlete, someone
along the lines of Andrew Wiggins for example. One last
note for the Lakers, I think they present some problems
for both Denver and Oklahoma City, which makes them an
upset threat. They can space Denver out and pick and
roll with Luka Doncic, and they have the ability to
attack Oklahoma City's lack of perimeter size with their big
(17:52):
perimeter shot creators in Lebron and Luca. To be clear,
I'd pick both teams against the Lakers at this point.
I just think you need to be able to cause
a real problem for a team in order to upset them,
and the Lakers can present real problems to both of
their teams, and we actually saw that bear out in
regular season games last year. So again, bigger weaknesses than
(18:13):
some of the other teams in this tier, but a
bigger ace in the hole in the form of having
a top tier superstar. That lands the Lakers at number five,
number six the Los Angeles Clippers. The Clippers also check
most of the boxes. They have an elite unit their defense,
their offense is plenty good enough. They have real depth.
It's older depth, but they do have real depth. They
(18:34):
just have two big question marks. They don't have a
top tier superstar anymore. Kawhi failed to reach that level
last year even when he was healthy, and they have
a crippling weakness in the form of James Harden and
his annual playoff collapses, especially late in big series. The
pathway for them is very simple. What happened with Kawhi
and the Nuggets series has to be an outlier. He
(18:55):
has to be able to get back to the level
he was at in his previous playoff runs when he
was healthy, when he was a legit, bona fide top
tier superstar. If Kawai can get there when the time
is right in a big playoff series, then they suddenly
vault up to top tier contention. Because this is a
really strong and well built roster. They're deep with perimeter defense,
(19:17):
they're very athletic, they've got rim protection in Zubots. Overall,
it's just a very talented roster that is well built
for the modern NBA. They're well coached. They've got a
floor raising offensive talent in the regular season in James
Harden and the ceiling raising offensive talent and Kawhi Leonard
in the playoffs. It just requires Kawhi to be that
ace in the hole, the same way I was talking
(19:39):
about Luka Doncic being for the Lakers. If Kawhi can
get to that level, they vault all of these teams
into that number third spot, that three spot. But we've
just been waiting on that with Kawhi for years, and
it actually seems to be trending away from that rather
than closer to that number seven. The Houston Rockets Houston.
To be clear, for me, had Fred Vanvlee not gotten hurt,
(20:01):
would have been at the bottom of the top tier
of contenders for me in that number three spot because
they would have checked all of the boxes really well.
They wouldn't have had a top tier superstar, but I
think they would have had a massive talent advantage over
most teams. That roster was stacked. When they were healthy,
they would have had an elite unit their defense. They'd
be plenty good enough on offense. When healthy, they would
(20:23):
have depth, they wouldn't have any crippling weakness. The problem
is is the loss of Fred van Vliet just chops
them right off at the knees in two key areas,
it takes that talent advantage to something far less substantial,
to where suddenly their lack of a true top tier
superstar would be more glaring. And it creates a crippling weakness,
(20:44):
specifically a lack of ball handling, and I think that
would just about guarantee a loss for them against a
team like Oklahoma City. Okay see, in general, was a
team I was worried about for Houston. I think Chet
is a super unique weapon to be able to deploy
on someone like Kevin Rant in a playoffs playoff series.
We saw more examples of that this summer in some
(21:04):
of the one on one footage and Katie was hitting
some super tough shots over Chet. But like Chet can
make kat work in a way that many defenders can't.
And even with Fred van Vliet, I think they would
have strugged against Oklahoma City's ball pressure. But the loss
of Fred van Vliet feels like a death sentence. So
I have Houston down at seven for now, But they're
probably the most likely team out of any of these
(21:27):
seven teams in this tier to eventually jump up into
the top tier because they're they're probably gonna make a trade,
and if they nail the right trade for the right
ball handler, all of a sudden, they vault right back
up towards the top of this list. Number eight. The
New York Knicks a lot of question marks, but also
(21:48):
a lot of upside. Right Like, they had an elite
offense in the regular season, but it fell apart against Indiana,
and in order to win a championship, they're gonna need
Mike Brown to be able to find a way to
make their offense resilient from round to round depending on matchups. Right,
their defense is more like a crippling weakness. As I've discussed,
I think Kat is just too mistake prone to build
a championship capable defense around. In our season preview, we
(22:11):
discussed some options there. Mike Brown's gonna have as a
work cutout for him. They do not have a top
tier superstar or a supreme talent advantage, but I do
think they have plenty of death so they need several
key things to go right. They need Mike Brown to
shore up the playoff offense. They need Mike Brown to
make the defense with Kat work against the best teams
(22:34):
in the league. But the reason why I have them
on this list anyway, despite the fact that they have
question marks on so many of these key championship contention categories.
Is because they're in the East. You get through Cleveland
somehow and you're right there in the finals. And again,
like similar to what I talked about with Cleveland, if
you catch Denver a team that can struggle with spaced
(22:57):
out pick and roll, they're at least an upset threat there.
But all of those weaknesses have them towards the bottom
of this tier. Lastly, at number nine, the Golden State Warriors.
I actually think this Golden State team when they're healthy,
is clearly better than a team like the Knicks, but
their age, combined with a brutal Western Conference playoff field,
(23:19):
is what put them at the bottom. For me, it's
just going to be so hard for them to make
it through eighty two games and three playoff rounds against
all teams that are likely going to be higher teams
on this list, teams that we've already listed, but when
they're healthy. To be clear, I'm very high on them
as a basketball team. I'm a huge believer in Steph
is the third best offensive player in the entire NBA,
(23:40):
even still at age thirty seven. I think the Jimmy,
Horford Draymond front court will be really good defensively when
they're all healthy, And for all to talk about their age,
it's more of just like a can those guys survive
long enough to be what they need to be in
the postseason? Like in the regular season context, I actually
think Steve Kerr in that front office have always done
a really nice job of finding good young players that
(24:01):
can play regular season shifts. So like the age thing,
it's less a depth for the regular season and more
like a if they ended up in a second round
series against Oklahoma City or Denver, would Steph, Jimmy, Draymond,
and Al all be at their relative ceilings at that point?
And it's just a long shot. For me. I'm a
(24:24):
big believer in the team. I don't think it's a
coincidence that they won as many games as they did
after the Jimmy trade. They had an elite defense, the
offense with Steph was plenty good enough. They had again
the end of the rotation depth with young players. They
had an elite coach. Ultimately, what prevents them from being
a top tier contender is their lack of top end talent, right,
like Steph is too old to be a bona fide
(24:45):
top tier superstar, and they certainly don't have a massive
talent advantage. But what keeps them at the bottom of
this second tier is a really bad combination of being
in a brutal Western conference with a very old core
of players that's unlikely to s survive the grind. But
make no mistake, if those dudes somehow find themselves healthy
in the big spots late in the season, you'd be
(25:07):
foolish not to take them seriously, especially if Steph can
get back to that like twenty seven points per game
in the postseason, where then all of a sudden he's
playing like a bona fide top tier superstar. Those are
the nine teams that I think have a real shot.
There's a third tier. These are all teams that are
extreme long shots. I just more want to list these
(25:28):
is what I consider to be the legitimately very good
teams in the league that are beneath those top two tiers,
either due to strong roster construction or a supremely gifted
star player. Right, I'm gonna just list them, and then
I'm gonna give you guys who I'll pick as my
tenth team, the team that's the top team in this tier.
I have the Milwaukee Bucks, the Detroit Pistons, they Orlando Magic,
(25:49):
the Atlanta Hawks, the Dallas Mavericks, the Miami Heat, the
San Antonio Spurs, the Philadelphia seventy six Ers, and the
Memphis Grizzlies. These are the teams that I'm putting in
that third tier that I just want to shout out
as really good basketball teams. If I had to pick
a team from that list to round out the top
ten as being the best team from the third tier,
it's gonna be Milwaukee because of Yannis. Similar to what
(26:11):
I was talking about with the Lakers, having one of
the true top tier superstars in the league can make
up for a lot of other issues, and Giannis is
still very much one of those guys. The reason why
I left them off the second tier is because they
are rife with flaws. Once you get past Giannis, they
are super light on talent compared to all of those teams.
(26:32):
They have some gaping weaknesses in terms of aggregate ball
handling as well as perimeter defense and overall team speed
and athleticism. So they have some massive flaws that prevent
them from really joining into that second tier. But I
think they're clearly the best team in that third tier,
just based on the fact that they have one of
the top four players in the entire NBA. All Right, guys,
(26:54):
it's all I have for today is always to sincerely
appreciate you guys for supporting us and supporting the show.
We'll be back on Friday with a mailbag, and the
next week we're starting to sing up. We got a
we got an NBA basketball game on Tuesday. So as always,
I appreciate you guys, and we will see you on Friday. M. M.
Host
Jason Timpf
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