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May 8, 2025 • 15 mins

Terrence Oglesby of Hornets on FanDuel Sports Network stops by to preview the 2025 Draft Lottery with Sam Farber. Sam discusses how the probability of the lottery works, and the two discuss the depth of this draft and how it can impact teams at the top of the draft order.

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Speaker 1 (00:01):
Welcome to the Hornets Hoodcast, presented by Charlotte I ear
Nosen Throat Associates, the official I ear Nosen throatcare provider
of the Charlotte Hornets. Here's your host, Sam Farber.

Speaker 2 (00:13):
Welcome to another edition of the Hornet Time Cast, your
Hornets podcast with all the notes, quotes in daily buzz
around your favorite NBA team. I'm Sam Farber, and it
is a pleasure and a privilege to have you with
us here once again on a special edition of the
hornetside Cast, brought to you by Santa Charlotte I Hear
Nose and Throat Associates, the official I Hear nos and
throwcare provider of the Charlotte Hornets.

Speaker 3 (00:31):
It is, as I.

Speaker 2 (00:32):
Mentioned, a very special episode of the HHC. We're getting
you ready for the NBA Draft Lottery. It takes place Monday,
maybe today, depending on when you're listening to this podcast.
We're going to give you the ins and outs of
how the lottery works and give you a experts perspective
on what you might expect from this class coming into
the NBA joining us shortly is going to be our expert.

(00:54):
Terrence Oglesby, a FanDuel Sports network, and when he's not
covering the hornets there he's covering college bassketball as a
network analyst. But first, a little bit of the lottery breakdown.
How does it work? This isn't fourteen giant envelopes get
shuffled up and the one that's pick gets to win
the draft. It's not fourteen ping pong balls with different
team logos or shuffled up and one selected and that's

(01:15):
the winner. Although we're maybe getting a little bit closer.
There's fourteen ping pong balls that are numbered sequentially. They
go into the mixer whatever you want to call it,
four pulled out to deliver a four number combo. I'm
only a math minor, but there are checked one thousand
and one different combinations of four numbers that can be
selected from a set of fourteen, which works out almost
perfectly for the lottery. One thousand of those combos are

(01:38):
going to be assigned to the teams based off of
their lottery odds. Charlotte, Utah, Washington. They've all got the
best chance of winning fourteen percent, so they're all going
to get one hundred and forty of the one thousand combos.
Just for another example, San Antonio, they had the eighth
worst record, they get a six percent chance, so they
get sixty of the one thousand assigned combos. Now, unless

(01:58):
it's that random one thousand first combination, whichever team's numbers
match the first four selected, they'll win the lottery and
they will get to have the first overall selection in
the twenty twenty five NBA draft. After that, we reload
everything and we select again for the number two pick.
Let's say for the sake of argument, Charlotte has won
the lottery, their combination of four ping pong balls numbered

(02:20):
is the first to be selected. Well, as a Hornets fan,
you might not care so much what the rest of
them say, But if one of those one hundred and
forty combinations is picked, Charlotte is now going to have
their numbers removed from the lottery. So if on the
second go around, one of the Hornets numbers or that
one thousand first gets picked, they'll shuffle them up again

(02:41):
and do it again until they find a new team's combination,
and that team would get the number two pick. Same
for third, same for fourth. That's the lottery. That's how
it works mechanically. Charlotte, again, they've got the most combinations
assigned to them, one hundred and forty works out to
a fourteen percent chance of picking first overall. If you
were to do all the different combinations in all the
different orders, it works out to Charlotte having a slightly

(03:03):
better than fifty to fifty chance of winning a top
four spot. And worst case scenario is Charlotte ends up
picking seventh overall. In the twenty twenty five NBA Draft
lottery only works for the first four picks. After that,
they're going to hand them out based off worst record
or worst win percentage going on down to the fourteenth spot.
Some things to watch for to listen for on a
lottery night in terms of how things are revealed and

(03:25):
what that might indicate. Again, Charlotte, the worst they could
pick or the earliest you could see their logo is
for the seventh spot.

Speaker 3 (03:31):
If you see.

Speaker 2 (03:32):
Teams like Chicago, Dallas, Portland, San Antonio, or Toronto, if
those logos are not appearing early, or maybe easier to say,
if you see the host starting to freak out about
certain teams jumping up in the lottery, that probably means
the Hornet's chances have gotten a little bit weaker because
someone has moved up exponentially in the lottery. That said,
it's almost impossible to know anything until the seventh pick.

Speaker 3 (03:54):
That's the earliest we could see, Charlotte.

Speaker 2 (03:56):
What's the earliest You could start getting excited if you
see the sixth or the fifth pick and either Washington
or Utah's logo shows up before Charlotte get excited. That
means Charlotte has moved up into the top four. And
then we'll all see together when and where the Hornet's
logo is revealed. Hopefully it's at number one. That's what
to watch for it. That's some of the mechanics of
the lottery. What does it mean based off where the

(04:17):
Hornets land. We're going to get into that with an
expert on the draft, Terrence Oglesby of FanDuel Sports Network
and a college basketball analyst. He joins me next here
on the Hornets iivee Cast. We've got a special guest
with us here today on the Hornets Hive Cast. He
is an analyst for FanDuel's Sports Network as well as
does a great job covering the college game on the

(04:40):
days that he's not covering the Hornets. Terrence Oglesby from
Fandel Sports Network here with us today, Terrence, thanks for
joining me.

Speaker 4 (04:45):
I appreciate you having me on, and I'm very appreciative
that I get to be in this building, which I
wasn't ever sure was going to be the case, But
that all being said, happy to be here, Excited for
lottery season, Excited to be here talking about it with you.

Speaker 2 (04:56):
We're going to talk a little bit about what it
means depending on the outcomes here for the Hornets got
into a little bit earlier, the percentages the opportunity here
for Charlotte to move up. It's a fourteen percent chance
of winning the lottery, roughly fifty to fifty to move
into the top four, and the worst that the Hornets
could finish in terms of the lowest spot they could
draft would be seventh. But this is a special class

(05:18):
by most experts opinions. You cover the college game quite
a bit this year more than most. There are more
players coming out of college than previous years, where other
things like Gi Leigue Gignite used to exist. That doesn't
anymore so from your perspective, how good is the twenty
twenty five draft class?

Speaker 4 (05:35):
I think you look at some of the recent seasons,
last year it was or two years ago it was
wim Bin Yama. Last year, you know you have Stephen
Castle that ends up winning Rookie of the Year, but
there wasn't that top end talent that we're going to
see in this year's draft class. In my opinion, the
top five to six players in this class are as
strong as it's been since two thousand and three. And
I say that without a whole lot of hesitation. You

(05:57):
look at guys like Cooper Flag, you look at guys
like Acepa, Dylan Harper. Some people are throwing VJ. Edgecomb
in the mix. Big fan of Trey Johnson down at
Texas what he was able to do. I'm really intrigued
by the potential star power of this group, not just
at number one, and Cooper Flag gets a lot of
attention because we are obviously into Carolina's but past that guy,
you're looking at five six guys that could be big

(06:19):
time players for each prospective franchise and guys that could
be All Stars in the future. And that's not something
we've typically said over the last four or five seasons,
especially past picks one through three.

Speaker 2 (06:29):
Put it into perspective because obviously there have been superstar
prospects the Lebron James Victor Wembinyamas of the world. But
there are often times, you know, players that get a
lot of buzz going into the draft, and compared to
the next year's class or three years down the line,
maybe they wouldn't have been picked in the same spot.

Speaker 3 (06:49):
So, whether you want to take a pool of the
last three.

Speaker 2 (06:51):
Years, five years, ten years, how good are the players
coming up in this class? How many of them maybe
would have been the number one pick or a top
three pick had they come out the year before, had
the opportunity to.

Speaker 4 (07:04):
Had they come out last year. I think there's potentially
four players that could have been the number one pick
in last year's draft. That's how good I think this
draft is. Without naming names, I just go back to
the potential star power on what you're able to see.
I think Dylan Harper has real James Harden type of potential.

Speaker 3 (07:20):
He's six', six he's.

Speaker 4 (07:21):
Broad he can do a lot of different things with the,
basketball both from a scoring perspective and his ability to
get his teammates. Involved you look At Cooper flag At
jack Of All trades defensively reminds me of a guy
Named Andre, carolinko you remember, him and offensively he reminds
me Of Detroit pistons version Of Grant.

Speaker 3 (07:36):
Hill, like there's so many.

Speaker 4 (07:38):
Different players in this draft class that can make lasting
impacts on an organization and be the best player on
a team that makes it to AN nba. Championship that's
WHAT i think sets this draft class, apart and if nothing,
else puts franchises in position for something they can look
forward to in terms of.

Speaker 2 (07:56):
The immediate impact from the top of the. Draft and
that's really hard to judge because really. Hard quite, frankly
even the best prospects don't often become franchise. Changers you
look at the example Of Lebron James victor Women yam
at their teams and their rookie seasons didn't advance in the.
Playoffs you look at teams that did make big jumps this,

(08:16):
year their rookies for the most part were either not
in the rotation at all or had a much smaller
role when they got in to THE. Nba so having
an immediate impact is hard to. Judge but when you're
looking at the upper echelon of this, draft what do
you see as the immediate role they could.

Speaker 4 (08:32):
Play in my, Opinion Cooper flag immediately ready to play
for whatever, Franchise Dylan harper immediately ready to contribute for whatever.
Franchise and then you know for my three and, Four Ace,
bailey you talk about extremely high, ceiling but a floor
could fall out, Too so there is going to be
risk involved past those first two picks as opposed to
how high and how much production you're actually going to
get throughout the course of a college. Career Trey johnson

(08:54):
At texas kind of the same. THING a bona fide
score at the college, level AND i think it's going to,
translate but there's good to be bumps along the. Way
those guys are geared a certain. Way they're geared to score.
Well when you translate to THE nba, level completely. Flips
you're gonna have different defenders guarding you every. Night the
rules are slightly. Different you look At dylan And cooper
what they're capable of being immediately from a physical, standpoint you,

(09:16):
Know Cooper flagg physically ready to compete right. Away he
was With TEAM usa last summer Helping lebron And Steph
curry get ready for The. Olympics he was playing With
Brandon miller of. Course so you look at those top two,
guys can they contribute and be ready MADE nba players right?

Speaker 3 (09:31):
AWAY i say.

Speaker 4 (09:31):
Yes then you look at those next two WHO i just,
MENTIONED i think there's gonna be bumps in the. Road
but the potential of those guys Of Ase bailey And
Trey johnson is just a different. Level AND i didn't
throw In Jeremiah fears as well out Of, oklahoma who
reminds me a lot of a guy Named Steve francis
that played ever so long ago for The rockets and
has spent time with The Magic at kind of the

(09:52):
same explosion, scores but not necessarily a three point, shooter
kind of A Manta ellis type player.

Speaker 3 (09:58):
As well with his.

Speaker 4 (09:58):
Speed so you look at the these different, guys how
they can, contribute how quickly they. Can there's going to
be some variability and volatility in their, production especially when
you talk About Ace tray And, jeremiah but the ceiling
of those guys tremendously.

Speaker 2 (10:11):
High Terrence oglesby A FanDuel sports network here with us
today breaking down some of the opportunities ahead for all
of the teams in the. LOTTERY i want to look
a little, deeper and you, know it never. Fails it's
not just THE nba. Draft we just had THE nfl
draft as. Well everyone projects the number one or two
or three picks to have These hall Of fame, careers

(10:34):
and then they start picking at flaws and then it never.
Fails you get into the season or you get two
years into these guys, careers and everyone's going back and
has revisionist history and, says, oh actually it was the
second round guy or this person later, on who was
the steal of the, draft or the best player one
of the faces behind me here In hornet's, History Kemba

(10:55):
walker pick, Ninth he's the franchise's all time leading. Scorer
so this is a draft where it's not just the
top one or two players you. Mentioned it's a deeper
class than most that is projected to have an. Impact once,
THAT i looked up from nineteen ninety eight to twenty twenty,

(11:15):
two every single draft class has had a player drafted
tenth or later that ended up making An All star.
Team little unfair to judge the twenty twenty three and
twenty four classes already, saying as they've barely been in THE.
Nba and, oh by the, way the class that broke
that streak going back to nineteen ninety, seven it's the
ninth overall Pick tracy, McGrady who ended up being An

(11:35):
All star and eventually A hall Of famer as. Well
so the lesson from all this is as much as
we might think we know about this class on draft,
day the reality is there's likely to be a player
or two drafted tenth or later who ends up making
An All star.

Speaker 3 (11:49):
Team makes it pretty favorable For.

Speaker 2 (11:52):
Hornets in the worst case statistically, speaking in terms of
the odds or whoever is drafting, fifth, six seventh to
and a really good player in any, draft but in
this class in, particular how much better are those.

Speaker 4 (12:04):
ODDS i think you know what you're going to get
in this draft, class and we were talking about it
before we started this. Podcast with only one hundred and
six early entry applicants in the fold this upcoming, draft
it changes the dynamic of how you're drafting past, fifteen, sixteen, seventeen,
Right so you look at guys that you know the
type of production you're going to, get Like Nick clifford

(12:24):
At Colorado, state who was spectacular over the last two
months of the, season you look at different guys that
could float towards the second. Round you're looking at older,
players and whenever you look at older, players at least
that's how it's looked at BY nba front. Offices you're
getting closer to a finished product than you would say
drafting an eighteen nineteen year old.

Speaker 3 (12:43):
Kids so they say they don't improve.

Speaker 4 (12:45):
Much i'm not really a buyer in, that because how
long do you really need to. PLAY i think you
get twelve years out of a guy at the end
of the first. ROUND i think that's an absolute. Win
you look At Peyton pritchard and what he was capable of.
Doing he played four years At. Oregon so they'll continue to.
Improve they'll Continue maybe the top end isn't an all,
STAR mvp level type, deal but you can give very
good quality pieces towards the back end of this first.

(13:05):
Round and when you look at this year's draft, class
and with all the older players in this draft, class
you know what you're. Getting SO i would look at
this draft there's a little bit of a safer draft
than in recent memory because of not as many early,
entries not a whole lot of freshmen and sophomore that
you're gambling on towards the end of the first, round
middle of the. Second you know what you're, getting and
you know the type of player that's going to come

(13:26):
into your, franchise and.

Speaker 2 (13:27):
That certainly could come into play with The hornets having
two rather high second round, picks which we'll see what
the front, office led By Jeff, peterson alects to do
either picking.

Speaker 3 (13:37):
In those, spots moving those.

Speaker 2 (13:38):
Picks there's a lot of opportunity obviously ahead here for The.
Hornets last question for, you just from a fans. Perspective,
obviously if the ping pong balls fall the right way
And charlotte's picking number one, overall there's going to be
a lot of, excitement as there would be in any.
Class but as you look at this class, overall regardless
of where The hornets, fall how excited Should charlotte fit

(14:00):
be about adding a talent anywhere it might land in
those early first round picks from this class to the
collection of talent that they already have In LaMelo ball
And Brandon miller and so on and so.

Speaker 4 (14:11):
FORTH i think that's a big point right, there because
really you look at you, Know Miles bridges has had
to play out a, position sometimes at the, four and
if you go a certain, direction you could get a
little bit bigger and. Skilled if you go another, direction
you could add some ancillary playmaking Beside LaMelo. Ball it
just you look at the talent level of these top
five to six seven, picks and you're going to be
able to plug and play with some of these younger players.

(14:32):
Immediately that excites, me and it also excites me with
the growth and. Development you, Know Brandon miller misses that
with more than back half of the, season but he
showed flashes during his rookie campaign of being that guy,
who if not a first, option could be an all
star level second option given that type of. Opportunity SO
i look at both, Him, LaMelo Mark, Williams Miles. Bridges
you have that core, here now you have to start

(14:54):
building some depth around, it AND i think this draft
class is a perfect way to do.

Speaker 2 (14:58):
That Terrence, ogilsby our expert today from FanDuel Sports, network
also covers the college game. Extensively we'll see what happens
on Lottery, night and we'll look forward to the twenty
twenty five draft class panning out and see who gets
to join us here in The Queen.

Speaker 3 (15:11):
City it sounds good to, me appreciate. You that's going
to do.

Speaker 2 (15:13):
It for this episode of THE, hhc tune in On tuesday,
morning bright and. Early we'll have a recap of what
happened in the. Lottery where did The hornets? Land what
does it mean looking ahead to the twenty twenty FIVE
Nba draft now a little bit more than a month.
Away we'll have that covered for you throughout the coming
days and weeks till next. Time for our special Guest
terrence oglesby our Producer Rob loanco putting this podcast, together

(15:36):
and for all of us, Here I'm Sam farbers saying
it's been a pleasure and of privilege having you. ALONG
a well tat to you next time right here on
The Hornets.

Speaker 1 (15:42):
Podcast thank you for listening To The Hornets, podcast brought
to you By, senta the official i ear nosen throadcare
provider of The Charlotte. Hornets for more, coverage Visit hornets dot.
Com
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