September 22, 2025 • 28 mins
In this episode, Ryan Girdusky examines early voting trends in Virginia, the stakes of the New Jersey governor’s race, and why the Pennsylvania Supreme Court could shape future elections. It's a Numbers Game is part of the Clay Travis & Buck Sexton Podcast Network - new episodes debut every Monday & Thursday.
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
Welcome back to a Numbers game with Ryan Grdusky. Thank
you all for being here. It is Monday, September twenty second,
twenty twenty five, and we have just forty three days
left until the twenty twenty five elections in New Jersey,
New York, Pennsylvania, and Virginia. It is coming by fast.
We're actually only one hundred days left of the year
(00:21):
of twenty twenty five until twenty twenty six, which is
insane because I feel like we're only halfway there, but
we are three quarters through the entire year. I just
got back from the West Coast from a family vacation.
I was in California over last week. I was in Carmel,
which was really beautiful. I was very cute town in California.
I had a family wedding for my cousin out in
San Francisco, and then we made our way down the coast.
(00:44):
California is such a beautiful state. It is so such
like an amazing place with such bad politics. But I
bring up the trip because it was weird how many
people in that part of the country. Actually around San
Francisco just assume you're a liberal. People talk to me
(01:05):
about politics all over the place. The checkout girl at
Target brought up Obama while I was trying to buy
like a container of ice coffee. I was like, Melissa,
I'm just trying to have a day, like I don't
need to bring up like Obama. It was so bizarre.
The guy in front of me at the Alamo rental
car like checkout at the airport, he wasn't working there.
(01:28):
He was just standing in front of me, and I
complimented his tattoo, and then he started telling me which
parts of Ohio were the most progressive. I was like,
do you think I care? Like, sir, we are on
a line at an Alamo rental car. This relationship that
we have is not going to last another five more
minutes unless there's a strike. Like why why do you
(01:51):
need to tell me which cities in Ohio are the
most supportive of transgender people playing sports? I don't give
a ship, sir. Like this was maddening. My brother went
to a restaurant and he asked the waitress which bars
were opened nearby, and the waitress started telling, warning, not
even telling warning him, which bar owners were Trump supporters.
(02:14):
I just think that they have this opinion that they
know what a Republican must look and sound like. And
because I wasn't toothless or had a Confederate flag tattoo
on my forehead, they presumed that I must have voted
for Kamala like. It was very strange. And I also
ran into a longtime listener of the podcast and someone
I followed on social media named Jake. He was terrific.
(02:36):
I want to give him a shout out really quickly.
Tell you the Italian pastries that he treated me to
were excellent. I know that no one listens to me
to hear my travel stories. I just wanted to tell
you all because just liberals are very inclined to give
you their opinion and presume that if you're not walking
around in an NRA T shirt that you must be
one of them. And I, like a dope, just pretended
like I just wanted to keep the conversation and I
(02:58):
give the conversation, I mean, just keep the day moving,
and I did not engage and argue. It was like,
let's just get this out of the way, and why
don't I just keep my vacation happening. Next time, maybe
I will blurt out something I don't know and before
I start talking about the upcoming elections. I just want
to mention I watched clips of Charlie Kirk's memorial service
in Arizona. I'm not exactly sure how many people showed up.
(03:20):
It seems to be the official estimates range from between
ninety five thousand to two hundred thousand based upon things
I've read online, which according to my research and I
did some research, this Charlie Kirks memorial is the largest
private citizens memorial since the death of Elvis Presley. I
might say private, sis, I don't mean like Reagan. I
(03:41):
mean like someone who didn't serve in any official capacity.
I think he is the last person to draw this
kind of a crowd since Elvis Presley's death, and the
last political figure to draw this kind of Crowdsincemartin Luther
King Junior's assassination in nineteen sixty eight. So that's pretty
incredible when you really think about it as a generational event.
(04:03):
I didn't watch the full funeral. I watched parts of it.
The parts of his turning point colleagues was very moving. Erica,
his wife's speech was extremely moving. Really, I mean she
is very very strong for me able to give that
kind of a speech in this moment since losing her husband,
and the New York Times right up with her was
very impactful. She seems like a very profound person, and
(04:28):
I've been praying for her a lot. Forgiving Charlie's killer
and talking about him as the young man Charlie had
tried to intervene in. I think was just I don't
know if I could have collected my words and if
I was in such a state as she's in. So
she was really, really, really, really just monumental, and I
think very highly of her. I didn't really ever hear
(04:50):
her speak before this, and I'm kind of blown away
by how talented she is as an auditor. The memorial
also sparked a lot of questions about Christian revivalism in America.
I saw that being chatted about online. It was very evangelical.
There were a lot of pastors there, and I know
some people were Catholic and other religions, but it was
(05:10):
a conversational. Christian revivalism is being talked about, and I
think I'm going to do a podcast episode about that idea.
Is it really happening? What is church attendance for young people? Really? Like?
Are people just identifying as being Christian but not actually practicing.
I'm going to look to see if I can get
a good guess to talk about it, because I'm curious
(05:31):
about I've had many conversations with people who do believe
in it, and I'm always a skeptic unless I see data.
It's just who I am. So yeah, that was my
only thoughts. And also one last thing, and this is
more of the negative side. I have to say, I've
been extremely disappointed by some quote unquote right wing influencers
and how they have acted over the last eleven days.
(05:53):
There are a number of people who suffer from main
character syndrome where they have to make themselves the star
of the show at any given thing, and they have
used Charlie's death to talk about themselves. And I'm not
talking about any one person. I'm talking about multiple people
who have kind of put themselves in the middle of
(06:14):
it rather than talking more about him and his life
and his kids and you know whatnot. And I just
find that so disappointing and so classless. And I just
wanted to say that there's not it's not one person,
it's many, many, many people. And it's been very disheartening
that they've done that in this time. So all right,
let's go to politics. It is forty three days, as
(06:35):
I said to the election, Let's start off in the
Commonwealth of Virginia. Virginia's election didn't start in forty three days. Actually,
Virginia's election has started a few days ago because in
that state they have six weeks of early voting. I
do not believe that they should have that much early voting,
but they do. So it is what it is. I'm
(06:55):
just I'm not my I don't make the rules as usual.
I have been a godfather four times and I have
been a god zero times. And is my great lot
in life that I don't make rules for other people.
So something you need to remember about Virginia is that
they do not register voters by party, Unlike New Jersey,
unlike New York City, unlike Pennsylvania, where there's big election
(07:17):
statewide elections this year, there's no way of knowing how
people identify themselves other than if they say it out loud.
But there's no registration form. You're not registered to only
be a Republican or only be a Democrat. So when
I compare the data that I'm about to give you,
I am talking about presumed identification based upon electoral data,
(07:40):
based upon how data companies model how they think people
are going to be voting, or how they are registered
if they could register party, and also the past performances
of the areas that they vote in, because a lot
of areas are landslide Democrat or landslide Republican counties, So
if anyone votes there, you can presume they're more than
(08:00):
likely voting a Democrat or Republican. Okay, let's start at
the early voting. Early voting is not we don't have
the date of the entire state, it's just a few counties.
Republicans actually showed surprisingly good early data in some strong
Trump counties. Highland, Virginia, a place that Trump one by
fifty eight points, is already one hundred and twenty five
(08:24):
percent of their first day of early voting in twenty
twenty four. What does that mean. That means they are
exceeding presidential turnout in the first day of early voting.
The top five counties that are either exceeding or coming
close to their twenty twenty four totals of their first
day early voting are all Republican strongholds. Highland King and Queen, Goochlin,
(08:47):
Wife and Cumberland Counties are all about eighty eight percent
to one hundred and twenty five percent of their twenty
twenty four totals. That is very good for Republicans. The
weakest area compared to them is in compared to the
twenty twenty four early vote, is Saint Petersburg City. It
is a place that Kamala Harris won by seventy three points.
They are only turning out about thirty four percent of
(09:09):
the rate they did in twenty twenty four. Falls Church City,
another very blue area that Kamala Harris won by sixty
two points, is having very poor turnout of thirty two
percent of their first day in twenty twenty five compare
their first day in twenty twenty four. Now that this
doesn't mean that all the Republicans are showing up in
strongholds Buchanan, Tazewell, Galax City. They all have pretty poor
(09:32):
turnouts and those are big Republican areas. You may be asking,
like Ryan, I don't really care about these individual places.
I want to talk about the state as a whole.
You have to remember that there's more on the ballot
than just the governor's race. There's also the lieutenant governor's race,
which in Virginia, the lieutenant governor and governor are voted separately.
They're not on the same tickets, so it's possible to
(09:54):
have a Republican governor and a Democrat lieutenant governor or
vice versa, or a Democrat governor and a lieutenant lieutenant
governor governor who's Republican. There's also the attorney General's race,
where the incumbent ag is the only statewide office holder
to be seeking reelection he's a Republican. And there's also
the state legislature. Democrats hold a two seat majority in
(10:15):
both the State House and the state Senate. They're hoping
for a landslide victory this year in the governor's mansion
that could bolster up a huge majority in the state
Legislature and even give them possibly a veto proof majority
in the state House. These early vote returns are bad
for Democrats in some of those key swing districts in Virginia,
(10:35):
like in the House District. That's a district that Kamala
Harris won in the presidential election, but a Republican represents
in the state legislature. What we're looking at with the
data shows that black voters, specifically lower pensity Black voters
who vote in presidential elections and not other elections are
really not showing up in big numbers. That's bad for
(10:57):
Democrats in some very key state legislatives. Now, early in
person voting is just one method to how people cast
a BALLID, because of course they have mail in voting
according to political models. Now, this is what data companies
estimate will be how people registered to vote if they could.
In twenty four almost two hundred and twenty five thousand
(11:20):
likely Democrats have requested a mail in BALLID, eighty two
thousand Republicans have requested mail in BALLID, and one hundred
and two thousand likely independents have requested mail in ballads.
So more Democrats have requested mail in ballads than Republicans
and independents combine. According to my buddy Christian Hyens, I
think that's how you're pronouncing your last name, Christian, I'm
(11:41):
not exactly sure. He's a very smart Republican data guy
out of Virginia. He thinks about two thirds of all
the early vote in the first day have broken for Democrats,
but a big part of that is because a big
blue counties like Fairfax have a very high raw vot data.
He told me, what we're seeing so far is tremendous
(12:01):
turnout at a very white liberal areas like in the
Richmond suburbs, while Republicans have had decent turnout in some
of these swing areas, and the black turnout is substantially
lower than it needs to be for Democrats to capture
a super majority in the state legislature. It's very early,
though there are some decent signs of Republicans in some
(12:21):
down ballot races. Democrats have had a good job at
turning out high propensity voters. Republicans have had some decent
turnout when it comes to low propensity voters, but once
again very very early, they will need a lot more
of it. To have some kind of an upset. Republicans
need to show up in much stronger numbers to counter
(12:43):
what is happening in Northern Virginia and the increased suburbs,
but the increased turnout rather in the Richmond suburbs. A
lot of people are commenting on the state of Lieutenant
Governor wins some series campaign. She's at the top of
the ticket, She's probably the most important campaign. To look
at what she has done in this election is very interesting.
She's talked a lot about trans rights and transgender people
(13:07):
playing girls' sports, transgender I guess, women playing biological women's sports.
It's become the focus of the campaign over other pocketbook issues.
And I think that her method, what she's hoping for,
is that she could turn out the Trump base, turn
out low propensity voters to see if they will counter
(13:28):
the high turnout. She's basically hoping for a Republican size
turnout on the Republican side, and she's using cultural issues
to get there, even if it's possibly at the expense
of talking about pocketbook issues that independent voters really care about.
We'll see if it works. She has forty three days
(13:49):
to sit there and pull a miracle because she's very
behind in the polls. What's going on in New Jerseys,
you're what you're asking? That's coming up next. On Sunday,
the New York Times reported that the Democratic National Committee
has announced they're pouring another one point five million dollars
into the New Jersey governor's election, bringing there total they
(14:11):
have invested to three million. A group associated with the
Democratic Governor's Association has committed twenty million dollars to help
Mickey Cheryl, the Democratic nominee, win. That's significantly more than
the Republican Governors Association, which has only spent one point
five million on recent ads in support of Jack Chitdarelli,
(14:32):
the Republican nominee. On Tuesday, the purchase another one point
one million. Four years ago, the DNC spent less than
half as much helping Governor Murphy win re election against Chittarelli,
the former assemblymen who came in a very tight race
for governor in twenty twenty one. This late stage ad purchase,
(14:52):
and this is a quote, This late stage ad purchase
on behalf of the Democrats show that they are not
confident that they are going to win the state, a
state where Democrats have over eight hundred and sixty thousand
more registered voters than Republicans. Republican Jack Chiarelli and Democrat
Mickey Scherrid debated yesterday and that clip, the clip that
I think people are seeing anyway, is going viral. It's
(15:14):
earned several million views on Twitter and Instagram that I
have seen, and it is a comeback from Jack Citarelli
over accusations. That not accusations, it's most the Democrat Mickey Cheryl.
She sat there and said, I'm going to make sure
that you can't hold off again. I want you guys
to hear that clip. Now. It doesn't matter because I'm
going to make sure that he doesn't get to serve
(15:36):
again when I went for governor in November.
Speaker 2 (15:39):
Of this year. There's another big difference between her public service.
In my public service, it actually cost me money the
time I put in and took away from my company.
In the seven years that she's been in Congress, she's
tripled her net worth. There's another big difference between the
two of us. Okay, she broke the law.
Speaker 3 (15:58):
She had to pay fines for violating federal law on
stock trades and stock reporting. And the New York Times
reports that while you're sitting on the House Armed Services Committee,
you were trading defense stocks.
Speaker 1 (16:09):
That was probably the best comeback guy I ever heard
from a politician since Trump told Hillary that she would
be in jail. I mean, because what it does is
not only defines Mickey Cheryl as being an insider who
is corrupt and saying that Jack has been lost money
while serving in office, he is a very wealthy man.
But it is sat there and said that she is
(16:30):
heart of the blob in Washington. That is politics as
usual that voters hate, that independent voters hate. Sheitda really
had a reasonably strong debate performance. It was one awkward
moment where he tried to fist bump a young kid
and the young kid wouldn't fist bump him back. But
besides that, it was a very strong debate performance, and
debate performances don't usually matter for local offices unless a
(16:52):
Canada has a blowout moment where they say something that
hurts them, say something that their face. Jack Chiarelli's comeback
was extremely good because it defined the Democrat in a
way you want to ahead of the election so close
where people are actually paying more attention. The other interesting part,
and I don't have the clip, but it's not important
(17:12):
because it lasted for just a second, was that the
Democrat Mickey Cheryl, refused to commit to not raising taxes.
That's if you don't want two clips ahead of an election,
that's where you don't want them. Should a rally got
more good news, however, Right before the debate, an internal
poll showed him leading the Democrat by one point. The
(17:33):
poll was conducted by National Research. Now this is an
internal poll, right, so his own campaign was doing the polls.
That means you should treat it with a little grain
of salt because we don't know if it was an
informed poll or it was the poll before the information.
What an informed poll is for those who don't know,
(17:53):
is that pollsters who are polling for a campaign will
say to a voter, who are you likely to vote?
You know, John or Mary, and say John has fifty
and Mary has fifty. Then they'll read and John is
doing the poll. Then they'll read a bunch of statements.
Mary is prefers cats over dogs. Mary voted to raise taxes,
(18:15):
you know, I don't know, supports abortion on demand. Now
who are you more likely to vote for? And then
like Jack will have fifty five and Mary, we'll have
four to five, and you'll see, oh, okay, well this
is the strongest issue to attack them in. This is
why the polls are being done internally, so we don't
know if it's in an informed pole or not an
informed pole. There's not a ton of information behind this
because it was internal in the campaign. I will say
(18:36):
this though, the one reason not even reporting this information
because usually I would not report an internal poll to
you guys, is that it was conducted by National Research
and they were the most accurate pollster in the twenty
twenty one New Jersey governor's race. They predicted Murphy Wooin
by three and Murphy won by three. Usually polster with
high level credibility does not want to leak out a
(18:58):
pole that is compos completely going to destroy their reputation.
They don't really love that idea, so especially coming off
of a big successful year as they did in twenty
twenty one. This is the first poll that has ever
showed Chitterrelly leading. Most poles have been losing between six
and eight points, which is what Trump lost in twenty
(19:19):
twenty four against Khma He lost by six points. So
it's an outlier, but it is a very strong polster
with a very good reputation. There's a series of a
plus pollsters, people that are highly accredited in the industry,
who have announced since that poll came out that they're
going to go back in the field re examine the
governor's race. We'll have more polling that comes out about that.
(19:40):
This poll has Chitarelly leading among independence by twenty one points.
That seems like a lot to me personally. That's one
thing I'm like, Eh, poll, is this poll accurate? Is
this an informed pole? Twenty one points is a lot.
There are two point three million independents in the state
of New Jersey, so they need everything. As I said before,
Democrats have an eight hundred and sixty one thousand voter
(20:04):
advantage over Republicans, but Republicans have done a very good
job at shipping away at Democrats lead. Since twenty twenty one,
there are two hundred and twenty two thousand more registered
Republicans than there were the last time that Chittarelli ran
for governor. This time and in that same time period,
(20:26):
there's been over two hundred thousand new Republicans. There's only
been five thousand new Democrats. So what Cheryl is hoping
to do in this election to galvanize these Democrats that's
who have a big lead, but it is a smaller
lead than it used to be, and try to win
over independent support. And you can see it in her
(20:46):
debate performance. You can see in the adset she's running
is she's trying to nationalize this election. She's trying to
make it about Donald Trump. This is the same thing
that Governor Murphy did in twenty twenty one against Hitarelli.
In two twenty one, Murphy's campaigns about Chitdarelli talked about
January sixth. This time, Cheryl's comments and ads talk a
(21:09):
lot about the big beautiful bill about Medicaid cuts, and
she's trying to make Shitarelly own what the Republican Congress
has done, which is fairly unpopular, especially in the state
of New Jersey, especially among independents, and trying to galvanize
Democrats to show up and vote. Chitarelly is making the
election more about New Jersey. He's saying, I've served in
(21:30):
every level of state office New Jersey, from the Assembly
to the local government. This would be like the next thing,
and I know this state like the back of my hand.
Reducing energy costs, reducing cost of living, reducing taxes, that's
how we're going to get businesses to stay in New Jersey.
That's how we're going to get New Jersey thriving again.
He's even brought the fact that New Jersey went from
(21:52):
number two to number twelve and education ratings and talking
about how to make New Jersey's education more dynamic. It
is a much more or diverse way of speaking for
a candidate in the same way that when some seers
over in Virginia is trying to nationalize this election to
(22:12):
make it more about the Republican issues as a whole,
the trans issue, especially in the state of Virginia, Chittarelli
is trying to do the exact opposite in New Jersey.
It's very very weird, actually, Cheryl Mickey. Cheryl is running
a campaign that is more like whin some Seers than
Jack Chitarelli is, and Jack Darella is running a campaign
that is much more deeply focused on the state of
(22:36):
New Jersey and what the inter politics are in the state.
It's very interesting. It looks like it's going to be
a closer election than Virginia. The polls showing it being closer.
Jactually performed very strongly last time. Early voting in New
Jersey begins October twenty fifth. I'm going to do a
deep dive in episode in New Jersey. Do not worry.
I think next Monday, I'm hoping to do Virginia and
(22:58):
then I'll go to New Jersey. There's all so the
State Supreme Court races coming up in Pennsylvania. This is
incredibly important and no one, I promise your most election
podcasts are talking about this. It is important because the
Pennsylvania Supreme Court is overwhelmingly Democrat. And what did the
Pennsylvania Supreme Court decide that has national implications for us
(23:20):
in twenty twenty one, they decided over redistricting. They decided
to make certain districts lean more Democrat. Going into twenty
twenty eight, this will be the last election that will
really decide the state of the Pennsylvania Supreme Court. Going
into twenty twenty, twenty thirty, twenty thirty, we go through
redistricting again in Pennsylvania is likely to lose one more
(23:42):
congressional district. The Supreme Court is going to be very
influential and deciding how many Democratic seats are drawn in
the state. It is something to be mindful of and
to pay attention to. Pennsylvania has a very large mail
in voting apparatus. Republicans are doing a much much better
job at asking for mail in votering than they used to.
(24:04):
Democrats absolute leading it like they always will, but Republicans
are actually requesting mail in ballads. I'm at a significantly
higher rate than they usually do. I'm going to bring
you the exact numbers on Pennsylvania probably next Monday when
I go into Virginia. I just want you guys to
know about it. It's something to pay attention to. No
one else is talking about it. Up next is Ask
(24:25):
Me Anything. Welcome back to the Ask Me Anything segment.
If you want a part of the Ask Me Anything segment,
email me Ryan at Numbers Game Podcast dot com. That's
Ryan at Numbers Game Podcast plural Numbers Gamepodcast dot com.
Love getting your emails. I read every one of them.
This comes from my old buddy, Peter Fumbap. Peter emails
(24:47):
me all the time. Try to get to your questions
as often as possible, Peter, but I do enjoy them.
He mentions someone I had on my podcast about the
young Man from Angola about being well informed and doing debate,
and he asked who could be a successor to Charlie
Kirk at TPUSA. Well, obviously, Erica Kirk is going to
take over as the CEO of Turning Point and she
(25:10):
seems extremely eloquent. I don't really know her aside from
her public announcements that she's had since Charlie's death, so
I don't know her debate signing skills, or even if
she would want to do a public debate like Charlie
used to, given that that's how her husband was assassinated.
I could see how she would not want to. But
Charlie was really unique in the sense that he was
(25:32):
a politico. He had a political mind, and he was
able to really find new rising talent in the GOP,
get behind them early, support them, and put money and
effort in a ground game together in important states, not
only for a tenant's running for office, but also for
(25:52):
the presidential campaign. That was one half of Charlie's talent,
and the other half was the half that you that
if you're a listener, has used. Saw his ability to debate,
which is a unique talent. His ability to host a
two hour radio show is a unique talent. His ability
to do Fox News clips, which are very I did
was on Laurer Ingram. You're only on for three minutes.
You could get all your talking points out in a
(26:13):
very short period of time. That's a different talent, and
Charlie was extremely good at all those different things. Who
could replace him to do all of those things? I
don't know. I don't think that there's anyone who could
do everything that Charlie did, because he was very talented
in a number of places, and he made information palatable
better than I certainly do. One of my aunts was like,
I don't know what you're ever saying sometimes because she's
(26:34):
not into politics like my listeners are. But that's okay.
I have a very niche I have a very uniche opinion,
a very niche listening audience people who are a highly informed,
highly engaged, and want to be highly informed. It's not
for just people who have a passing fancy I think
with politics. But that's okay, you know, teach their own.
I think that Charlie made things very palpable for the
average person, for young people. Who could replace him all
(26:58):
those things, I don't know. I imagine someone's going to take
over each individual role that he did. He was really
really uniquely talented, and as I've said this before, I
wrote this down on my substack, that he over time
got better, which is rare. A lot of people start
out strong and kind of just sputter across the time,
and he was constantly becoming smarter, becoming more capable running
(27:22):
tv USA is a better organization, And yeah, I think
that that's really, really, really says a lot about him
as a man, and to do it all at thirty
one years old is kind of jaw dropping. But yeah,
rust in peace, Charlie Again. I don't know, it's just
so sad. Every time I think about it's so so
incredibly sad. But who can replace him Erica as CEO
and I don't know who replace him at everything because
(27:44):
he was really once in a generation kind of talent
for a lot of this stuff. I don't have an
answer for you. I usually try to get an answer
for all my listeners, but I don't have an answer
for that one. Anyway, thank you for listening. I'll be
back on Thursday. We'll talk then. Please like and subscribe
on the iHeartRadio app, apple Potcast wherever you get your podcasts,
and I'll speak to you guys on Thursday.
Welcome back to a Numbers game with Ryan Grdusky. Thank
you all for being here. It is Monday, September twenty second,
twenty twenty five, and we have just forty three days
left until the twenty twenty five elections in New Jersey,
New York, Pennsylvania, and Virginia. It is coming by fast.
We're actually only one hundred days left of the year
(00:21):
of twenty twenty five until twenty twenty six, which is
insane because I feel like we're only halfway there, but
we are three quarters through the entire year. I just
got back from the West Coast from a family vacation.
I was in California over last week. I was in Carmel,
which was really beautiful. I was very cute town in California.
I had a family wedding for my cousin out in
San Francisco, and then we made our way down the coast.
(00:44):
California is such a beautiful state. It is so such
like an amazing place with such bad politics. But I
bring up the trip because it was weird how many
people in that part of the country. Actually around San
Francisco just assume you're a liberal. People talk to me
(01:05):
about politics all over the place. The checkout girl at
Target brought up Obama while I was trying to buy
like a container of ice coffee. I was like, Melissa,
I'm just trying to have a day, like I don't
need to bring up like Obama. It was so bizarre.
The guy in front of me at the Alamo rental
car like checkout at the airport, he wasn't working there.
(01:28):
He was just standing in front of me, and I
complimented his tattoo, and then he started telling me which
parts of Ohio were the most progressive. I was like,
do you think I care? Like, sir, we are on
a line at an Alamo rental car. This relationship that
we have is not going to last another five more
minutes unless there's a strike. Like why why do you
(01:51):
need to tell me which cities in Ohio are the
most supportive of transgender people playing sports? I don't give
a ship, sir. Like this was maddening. My brother went
to a restaurant and he asked the waitress which bars
were opened nearby, and the waitress started telling, warning, not
even telling warning him, which bar owners were Trump supporters.
(02:14):
I just think that they have this opinion that they
know what a Republican must look and sound like. And
because I wasn't toothless or had a Confederate flag tattoo
on my forehead, they presumed that I must have voted
for Kamala like. It was very strange. And I also
ran into a longtime listener of the podcast and someone
I followed on social media named Jake. He was terrific.
(02:36):
I want to give him a shout out really quickly.
Tell you the Italian pastries that he treated me to
were excellent. I know that no one listens to me
to hear my travel stories. I just wanted to tell
you all because just liberals are very inclined to give
you their opinion and presume that if you're not walking
around in an NRA T shirt that you must be
one of them. And I, like a dope, just pretended
like I just wanted to keep the conversation and I
(02:58):
give the conversation, I mean, just keep the day moving,
and I did not engage and argue. It was like,
let's just get this out of the way, and why
don't I just keep my vacation happening. Next time, maybe
I will blurt out something I don't know and before
I start talking about the upcoming elections. I just want
to mention I watched clips of Charlie Kirk's memorial service
in Arizona. I'm not exactly sure how many people showed up.
(03:20):
It seems to be the official estimates range from between
ninety five thousand to two hundred thousand based upon things
I've read online, which according to my research and I
did some research, this Charlie Kirks memorial is the largest
private citizens memorial since the death of Elvis Presley. I
might say private, sis, I don't mean like Reagan. I
(03:41):
mean like someone who didn't serve in any official capacity.
I think he is the last person to draw this
kind of a crowd since Elvis Presley's death, and the
last political figure to draw this kind of Crowdsincemartin Luther
King Junior's assassination in nineteen sixty eight. So that's pretty
incredible when you really think about it as a generational event.
(04:03):
I didn't watch the full funeral. I watched parts of it.
The parts of his turning point colleagues was very moving. Erica,
his wife's speech was extremely moving. Really, I mean she
is very very strong for me able to give that
kind of a speech in this moment since losing her husband,
and the New York Times right up with her was
very impactful. She seems like a very profound person, and
(04:28):
I've been praying for her a lot. Forgiving Charlie's killer
and talking about him as the young man Charlie had
tried to intervene in. I think was just I don't
know if I could have collected my words and if
I was in such a state as she's in. So
she was really, really, really, really just monumental, and I
think very highly of her. I didn't really ever hear
(04:50):
her speak before this, and I'm kind of blown away
by how talented she is as an auditor. The memorial
also sparked a lot of questions about Christian revivalism in America.
I saw that being chatted about online. It was very evangelical.
There were a lot of pastors there, and I know
some people were Catholic and other religions, but it was
(05:10):
a conversational. Christian revivalism is being talked about, and I
think I'm going to do a podcast episode about that idea.
Is it really happening? What is church attendance for young people? Really? Like?
Are people just identifying as being Christian but not actually practicing.
I'm going to look to see if I can get
a good guess to talk about it, because I'm curious
(05:31):
about I've had many conversations with people who do believe
in it, and I'm always a skeptic unless I see data.
It's just who I am. So yeah, that was my
only thoughts. And also one last thing, and this is
more of the negative side. I have to say, I've
been extremely disappointed by some quote unquote right wing influencers
and how they have acted over the last eleven days.
(05:53):
There are a number of people who suffer from main
character syndrome where they have to make themselves the star
of the show at any given thing, and they have
used Charlie's death to talk about themselves. And I'm not
talking about any one person. I'm talking about multiple people
who have kind of put themselves in the middle of
(06:14):
it rather than talking more about him and his life
and his kids and you know whatnot. And I just
find that so disappointing and so classless. And I just
wanted to say that there's not it's not one person,
it's many, many, many people. And it's been very disheartening
that they've done that in this time. So all right,
let's go to politics. It is forty three days, as
(06:35):
I said to the election, Let's start off in the
Commonwealth of Virginia. Virginia's election didn't start in forty three days. Actually,
Virginia's election has started a few days ago because in
that state they have six weeks of early voting. I
do not believe that they should have that much early voting,
but they do. So it is what it is. I'm
(06:55):
just I'm not my I don't make the rules as usual.
I have been a godfather four times and I have
been a god zero times. And is my great lot
in life that I don't make rules for other people.
So something you need to remember about Virginia is that
they do not register voters by party, Unlike New Jersey,
unlike New York City, unlike Pennsylvania, where there's big election
(07:17):
statewide elections this year, there's no way of knowing how
people identify themselves other than if they say it out loud.
But there's no registration form. You're not registered to only
be a Republican or only be a Democrat. So when
I compare the data that I'm about to give you,
I am talking about presumed identification based upon electoral data,
(07:40):
based upon how data companies model how they think people
are going to be voting, or how they are registered
if they could register party, and also the past performances
of the areas that they vote in, because a lot
of areas are landslide Democrat or landslide Republican counties, So
if anyone votes there, you can presume they're more than
(08:00):
likely voting a Democrat or Republican. Okay, let's start at
the early voting. Early voting is not we don't have
the date of the entire state, it's just a few counties.
Republicans actually showed surprisingly good early data in some strong
Trump counties. Highland, Virginia, a place that Trump one by
fifty eight points, is already one hundred and twenty five
(08:24):
percent of their first day of early voting in twenty
twenty four. What does that mean. That means they are
exceeding presidential turnout in the first day of early voting.
The top five counties that are either exceeding or coming
close to their twenty twenty four totals of their first
day early voting are all Republican strongholds. Highland King and Queen, Goochlin,
(08:47):
Wife and Cumberland Counties are all about eighty eight percent
to one hundred and twenty five percent of their twenty
twenty four totals. That is very good for Republicans. The
weakest area compared to them is in compared to the
twenty twenty four early vote, is Saint Petersburg City. It
is a place that Kamala Harris won by seventy three points.
They are only turning out about thirty four percent of
(09:09):
the rate they did in twenty twenty four. Falls Church City,
another very blue area that Kamala Harris won by sixty
two points, is having very poor turnout of thirty two
percent of their first day in twenty twenty five compare
their first day in twenty twenty four. Now that this
doesn't mean that all the Republicans are showing up in
strongholds Buchanan, Tazewell, Galax City. They all have pretty poor
(09:32):
turnouts and those are big Republican areas. You may be asking,
like Ryan, I don't really care about these individual places.
I want to talk about the state as a whole.
You have to remember that there's more on the ballot
than just the governor's race. There's also the lieutenant governor's race,
which in Virginia, the lieutenant governor and governor are voted separately.
They're not on the same tickets, so it's possible to
(09:54):
have a Republican governor and a Democrat lieutenant governor or
vice versa, or a Democrat governor and a lieutenant lieutenant
governor governor who's Republican. There's also the attorney General's race,
where the incumbent ag is the only statewide office holder
to be seeking reelection he's a Republican. And there's also
the state legislature. Democrats hold a two seat majority in
(10:15):
both the State House and the state Senate. They're hoping
for a landslide victory this year in the governor's mansion
that could bolster up a huge majority in the state
Legislature and even give them possibly a veto proof majority
in the state House. These early vote returns are bad
for Democrats in some of those key swing districts in Virginia,
(10:35):
like in the House District. That's a district that Kamala
Harris won in the presidential election, but a Republican represents
in the state legislature. What we're looking at with the
data shows that black voters, specifically lower pensity Black voters
who vote in presidential elections and not other elections are
really not showing up in big numbers. That's bad for
(10:57):
Democrats in some very key state legislatives. Now, early in
person voting is just one method to how people cast
a BALLID, because of course they have mail in voting
according to political models. Now, this is what data companies
estimate will be how people registered to vote if they could.
In twenty four almost two hundred and twenty five thousand
(11:20):
likely Democrats have requested a mail in BALLID, eighty two
thousand Republicans have requested mail in BALLID, and one hundred
and two thousand likely independents have requested mail in ballads.
So more Democrats have requested mail in ballads than Republicans
and independents combine. According to my buddy Christian Hyens, I
think that's how you're pronouncing your last name, Christian, I'm
(11:41):
not exactly sure. He's a very smart Republican data guy
out of Virginia. He thinks about two thirds of all
the early vote in the first day have broken for Democrats,
but a big part of that is because a big
blue counties like Fairfax have a very high raw vot data.
He told me, what we're seeing so far is tremendous
(12:01):
turnout at a very white liberal areas like in the
Richmond suburbs, while Republicans have had decent turnout in some
of these swing areas, and the black turnout is substantially
lower than it needs to be for Democrats to capture
a super majority in the state legislature. It's very early,
though there are some decent signs of Republicans in some
(12:21):
down ballot races. Democrats have had a good job at
turning out high propensity voters. Republicans have had some decent
turnout when it comes to low propensity voters, but once
again very very early, they will need a lot more
of it. To have some kind of an upset. Republicans
need to show up in much stronger numbers to counter
(12:43):
what is happening in Northern Virginia and the increased suburbs,
but the increased turnout rather in the Richmond suburbs. A
lot of people are commenting on the state of Lieutenant
Governor wins some series campaign. She's at the top of
the ticket, She's probably the most important campaign. To look
at what she has done in this election is very interesting.
She's talked a lot about trans rights and transgender people
(13:07):
playing girls' sports, transgender I guess, women playing biological women's sports.
It's become the focus of the campaign over other pocketbook issues.
And I think that her method, what she's hoping for,
is that she could turn out the Trump base, turn
out low propensity voters to see if they will counter
(13:28):
the high turnout. She's basically hoping for a Republican size
turnout on the Republican side, and she's using cultural issues
to get there, even if it's possibly at the expense
of talking about pocketbook issues that independent voters really care about.
We'll see if it works. She has forty three days
(13:49):
to sit there and pull a miracle because she's very
behind in the polls. What's going on in New Jerseys,
you're what you're asking? That's coming up next. On Sunday,
the New York Times reported that the Democratic National Committee
has announced they're pouring another one point five million dollars
into the New Jersey governor's election, bringing there total they
(14:11):
have invested to three million. A group associated with the
Democratic Governor's Association has committed twenty million dollars to help
Mickey Cheryl, the Democratic nominee, win. That's significantly more than
the Republican Governors Association, which has only spent one point
five million on recent ads in support of Jack Chitdarelli,
(14:32):
the Republican nominee. On Tuesday, the purchase another one point
one million. Four years ago, the DNC spent less than
half as much helping Governor Murphy win re election against Chittarelli,
the former assemblymen who came in a very tight race
for governor in twenty twenty one. This late stage ad purchase,
(14:52):
and this is a quote, This late stage ad purchase
on behalf of the Democrats show that they are not
confident that they are going to win the state, a
state where Democrats have over eight hundred and sixty thousand
more registered voters than Republicans. Republican Jack Chiarelli and Democrat
Mickey Scherrid debated yesterday and that clip, the clip that
I think people are seeing anyway, is going viral. It's
(15:14):
earned several million views on Twitter and Instagram that I
have seen, and it is a comeback from Jack Citarelli
over accusations. That not accusations, it's most the Democrat Mickey Cheryl.
She sat there and said, I'm going to make sure
that you can't hold off again. I want you guys
to hear that clip. Now. It doesn't matter because I'm
going to make sure that he doesn't get to serve
(15:36):
again when I went for governor in November.
Speaker 2 (15:39):
Of this year. There's another big difference between her public service.
In my public service, it actually cost me money the
time I put in and took away from my company.
In the seven years that she's been in Congress, she's
tripled her net worth. There's another big difference between the
two of us. Okay, she broke the law.
Speaker 3 (15:58):
She had to pay fines for violating federal law on
stock trades and stock reporting. And the New York Times
reports that while you're sitting on the House Armed Services Committee,
you were trading defense stocks.
Speaker 1 (16:09):
That was probably the best comeback guy I ever heard
from a politician since Trump told Hillary that she would
be in jail. I mean, because what it does is
not only defines Mickey Cheryl as being an insider who
is corrupt and saying that Jack has been lost money
while serving in office, he is a very wealthy man.
But it is sat there and said that she is
(16:30):
heart of the blob in Washington. That is politics as
usual that voters hate, that independent voters hate. Sheitda really
had a reasonably strong debate performance. It was one awkward
moment where he tried to fist bump a young kid
and the young kid wouldn't fist bump him back. But
besides that, it was a very strong debate performance, and
debate performances don't usually matter for local offices unless a
(16:52):
Canada has a blowout moment where they say something that
hurts them, say something that their face. Jack Chiarelli's comeback
was extremely good because it defined the Democrat in a
way you want to ahead of the election so close
where people are actually paying more attention. The other interesting part,
and I don't have the clip, but it's not important
(17:12):
because it lasted for just a second, was that the
Democrat Mickey Cheryl, refused to commit to not raising taxes.
That's if you don't want two clips ahead of an election,
that's where you don't want them. Should a rally got
more good news, however, Right before the debate, an internal
poll showed him leading the Democrat by one point. The
(17:33):
poll was conducted by National Research. Now this is an
internal poll, right, so his own campaign was doing the polls.
That means you should treat it with a little grain
of salt because we don't know if it was an
informed poll or it was the poll before the information.
What an informed poll is for those who don't know,
(17:53):
is that pollsters who are polling for a campaign will
say to a voter, who are you likely to vote?
You know, John or Mary, and say John has fifty
and Mary has fifty. Then they'll read and John is
doing the poll. Then they'll read a bunch of statements.
Mary is prefers cats over dogs. Mary voted to raise taxes,
(18:15):
you know, I don't know, supports abortion on demand. Now
who are you more likely to vote for? And then
like Jack will have fifty five and Mary, we'll have
four to five, and you'll see, oh, okay, well this
is the strongest issue to attack them in. This is
why the polls are being done internally, so we don't
know if it's in an informed pole or not an
informed pole. There's not a ton of information behind this
because it was internal in the campaign. I will say
(18:36):
this though, the one reason not even reporting this information
because usually I would not report an internal poll to
you guys, is that it was conducted by National Research
and they were the most accurate pollster in the twenty
twenty one New Jersey governor's race. They predicted Murphy Wooin
by three and Murphy won by three. Usually polster with
high level credibility does not want to leak out a
(18:58):
pole that is compos completely going to destroy their reputation.
They don't really love that idea, so especially coming off
of a big successful year as they did in twenty
twenty one. This is the first poll that has ever
showed Chitterrelly leading. Most poles have been losing between six
and eight points, which is what Trump lost in twenty
(19:19):
twenty four against Khma He lost by six points. So
it's an outlier, but it is a very strong polster
with a very good reputation. There's a series of a
plus pollsters, people that are highly accredited in the industry,
who have announced since that poll came out that they're
going to go back in the field re examine the
governor's race. We'll have more polling that comes out about that.
(19:40):
This poll has Chitarelly leading among independence by twenty one points.
That seems like a lot to me personally. That's one
thing I'm like, Eh, poll, is this poll accurate? Is
this an informed pole? Twenty one points is a lot.
There are two point three million independents in the state
of New Jersey, so they need everything. As I said before,
Democrats have an eight hundred and sixty one thousand voter
(20:04):
advantage over Republicans, but Republicans have done a very good
job at shipping away at Democrats lead. Since twenty twenty one,
there are two hundred and twenty two thousand more registered
Republicans than there were the last time that Chittarelli ran
for governor. This time and in that same time period,
(20:26):
there's been over two hundred thousand new Republicans. There's only
been five thousand new Democrats. So what Cheryl is hoping
to do in this election to galvanize these Democrats that's
who have a big lead, but it is a smaller
lead than it used to be, and try to win
over independent support. And you can see it in her
(20:46):
debate performance. You can see in the adset she's running
is she's trying to nationalize this election. She's trying to
make it about Donald Trump. This is the same thing
that Governor Murphy did in twenty twenty one against Hitarelli.
In two twenty one, Murphy's campaigns about Chitdarelli talked about
January sixth. This time, Cheryl's comments and ads talk a
(21:09):
lot about the big beautiful bill about Medicaid cuts, and
she's trying to make Shitarelly own what the Republican Congress
has done, which is fairly unpopular, especially in the state
of New Jersey, especially among independents, and trying to galvanize
Democrats to show up and vote. Chitarelly is making the
election more about New Jersey. He's saying, I've served in
(21:30):
every level of state office New Jersey, from the Assembly
to the local government. This would be like the next thing,
and I know this state like the back of my hand.
Reducing energy costs, reducing cost of living, reducing taxes, that's
how we're going to get businesses to stay in New Jersey.
That's how we're going to get New Jersey thriving again.
He's even brought the fact that New Jersey went from
(21:52):
number two to number twelve and education ratings and talking
about how to make New Jersey's education more dynamic. It
is a much more or diverse way of speaking for
a candidate in the same way that when some seers
over in Virginia is trying to nationalize this election to
(22:12):
make it more about the Republican issues as a whole,
the trans issue, especially in the state of Virginia, Chittarelli
is trying to do the exact opposite in New Jersey.
It's very very weird, actually, Cheryl Mickey. Cheryl is running
a campaign that is more like whin some Seers than
Jack Chitarelli is, and Jack Darella is running a campaign
that is much more deeply focused on the state of
(22:36):
New Jersey and what the inter politics are in the state.
It's very interesting. It looks like it's going to be
a closer election than Virginia. The polls showing it being closer.
Jactually performed very strongly last time. Early voting in New
Jersey begins October twenty fifth. I'm going to do a
deep dive in episode in New Jersey. Do not worry.
I think next Monday, I'm hoping to do Virginia and
(22:58):
then I'll go to New Jersey. There's all so the
State Supreme Court races coming up in Pennsylvania. This is
incredibly important and no one, I promise your most election
podcasts are talking about this. It is important because the
Pennsylvania Supreme Court is overwhelmingly Democrat. And what did the
Pennsylvania Supreme Court decide that has national implications for us
(23:20):
in twenty twenty one, they decided over redistricting. They decided
to make certain districts lean more Democrat. Going into twenty
twenty eight, this will be the last election that will
really decide the state of the Pennsylvania Supreme Court. Going
into twenty twenty, twenty thirty, twenty thirty, we go through
redistricting again in Pennsylvania is likely to lose one more
(23:42):
congressional district. The Supreme Court is going to be very
influential and deciding how many Democratic seats are drawn in
the state. It is something to be mindful of and
to pay attention to. Pennsylvania has a very large mail
in voting apparatus. Republicans are doing a much much better
job at asking for mail in votering than they used to.
(24:04):
Democrats absolute leading it like they always will, but Republicans
are actually requesting mail in ballads. I'm at a significantly
higher rate than they usually do. I'm going to bring
you the exact numbers on Pennsylvania probably next Monday when
I go into Virginia. I just want you guys to
know about it. It's something to pay attention to. No
one else is talking about it. Up next is Ask
(24:25):
Me Anything. Welcome back to the Ask Me Anything segment.
If you want a part of the Ask Me Anything segment,
email me Ryan at Numbers Game Podcast dot com. That's
Ryan at Numbers Game Podcast plural Numbers Gamepodcast dot com.
Love getting your emails. I read every one of them.
This comes from my old buddy, Peter Fumbap. Peter emails
(24:47):
me all the time. Try to get to your questions
as often as possible, Peter, but I do enjoy them.
He mentions someone I had on my podcast about the
young Man from Angola about being well informed and doing debate,
and he asked who could be a successor to Charlie
Kirk at TPUSA. Well, obviously, Erica Kirk is going to
take over as the CEO of Turning Point and she
(25:10):
seems extremely eloquent. I don't really know her aside from
her public announcements that she's had since Charlie's death, so
I don't know her debate signing skills, or even if
she would want to do a public debate like Charlie
used to, given that that's how her husband was assassinated.
I could see how she would not want to. But
Charlie was really unique in the sense that he was
(25:32):
a politico. He had a political mind, and he was
able to really find new rising talent in the GOP,
get behind them early, support them, and put money and
effort in a ground game together in important states, not
only for a tenant's running for office, but also for
(25:52):
the presidential campaign. That was one half of Charlie's talent,
and the other half was the half that you that
if you're a listener, has used. Saw his ability to debate,
which is a unique talent. His ability to host a
two hour radio show is a unique talent. His ability
to do Fox News clips, which are very I did
was on Laurer Ingram. You're only on for three minutes.
You could get all your talking points out in a
(26:13):
very short period of time. That's a different talent, and
Charlie was extremely good at all those different things. Who
could replace him to do all of those things? I
don't know. I don't think that there's anyone who could
do everything that Charlie did, because he was very talented
in a number of places, and he made information palatable
better than I certainly do. One of my aunts was like,
I don't know what you're ever saying sometimes because she's
(26:34):
not into politics like my listeners are. But that's okay.
I have a very niche I have a very uniche opinion,
a very niche listening audience people who are a highly informed,
highly engaged, and want to be highly informed. It's not
for just people who have a passing fancy I think
with politics. But that's okay, you know, teach their own.
I think that Charlie made things very palpable for the
average person, for young people. Who could replace him all
(26:58):
those things, I don't know. I imagine someone's going to take
over each individual role that he did. He was really
really uniquely talented, and as I've said this before, I
wrote this down on my substack, that he over time
got better, which is rare. A lot of people start
out strong and kind of just sputter across the time,
and he was constantly becoming smarter, becoming more capable running
(27:22):
tv USA is a better organization, And yeah, I think
that that's really, really, really says a lot about him
as a man, and to do it all at thirty
one years old is kind of jaw dropping. But yeah,
rust in peace, Charlie Again. I don't know, it's just
so sad. Every time I think about it's so so
incredibly sad. But who can replace him Erica as CEO
and I don't know who replace him at everything because
(27:44):
he was really once in a generation kind of talent
for a lot of this stuff. I don't have an
answer for you. I usually try to get an answer
for all my listeners, but I don't have an answer
for that one. Anyway, thank you for listening. I'll be
back on Thursday. We'll talk then. Please like and subscribe
on the iHeartRadio app, apple Potcast wherever you get your podcasts,
and I'll speak to you guys on Thursday.
Host
Gill Alexander
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