October 10, 2025 • 15 mins
On this week's markets roundup, Merryn Somerset Webb and John Stepek dive into the surging precious metals market — from gold’s decades-long shine to silver’s sudden rally — and what the “debasement trade” says about global confidence in fiat currencies. They unpack investor psychology, fiscal risks facing the UK, and why even major institutions are rethinking the classic 60/40 portfolio. Plus, a discussion on stamp duty and whether cutting it could truly revive Britain’s housing and equity markets.
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Speaker 1 (00:02):
Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News.
Speaker 2 (00:16):
Welcome to the Marin Dogs Money News Roundup, where we
talk about the biggest moves in the markets this week
and what's driving them. I'm Maren zum Zap, Web Editor
at Large at Bloomberg UK.
Speaker 3 (00:25):
Wealth, and I'm Joined Stairpek, Senior report of Bloomberg and
authored the Money Distilled newsletter.
Speaker 2 (00:30):
He missed out award winning. He doesn't want me to
tease him anymore.
Speaker 3 (00:33):
Just I just feel that people are board. It's just
they've had enough.
Speaker 2 (00:37):
No one's ever going to be bored with your awards.
You're not gonna happen, right listen, speaking of awards, I
should have an award, Yes, you should have an award. Yes,
you know. I was looking up some of my articles
about gold this morning, not because I think about myself
a lot or anything like that, but because I just
wanted to see how long we've been writing about gold.
At twenty years, it really such a long time, and
(01:00):
I pulled out a few. A few two thousand and
six was one of the most one of the most
sort of prescient ones I found in nine, two thousand
and seven, thousand and eight, thousand and nine, literally every
single year. You will regret it if you do not hold.
You will regret it if you do not. All going.
We're in a lurly sometimes and ups and downs along
the way. Here we are now.
Speaker 3 (01:21):
Yeah, and honestly you're both very good at calling the top.
In twenty eleven, I assume Ember, I'm gonna take that.
I was, yeah, no, you know, an editors later for
money weeks saying you should maybe tape off. It's new,
and I always clean up all that's really Yeah, you
knows nothing.
Speaker 2 (01:36):
This is the greatest ball market of well ignore her.
Just to be clear, listeners, I won't be able to
do that again. There is no way I'll gather the
top right twice. It will come and I will miss
it almost definitely.
Speaker 3 (01:47):
Oh that's a shame. I was hoping you were going
to tell us something.
Speaker 2 (01:50):
But I'll try, John, I'll try anyway. The little pool
back today over four thousand dollars and then down a bit,
but by the way, actually up in stunning towns today slightly,
but a little bit. And then there's silver. Yeah, John
has been waiting for silver for so long, John.
Speaker 3 (02:06):
I have I mean purely as a spected but yeah,
it's fifty dollars, is I mean, I suppose it's the
thing I've been looking for. Is that's quite a body
in signal in some ways, or it's a breaking new
ground signal, and they'll be very interesting to see where
it closes today, because if it closes below fifty today,
having gone up through it, then I'll probably be more
(02:28):
bodied than this. Maybe the beginning. Well, you know, it's
the resistance, it's the option.
Speaker 2 (02:36):
Absolutely full proof that stuff.
Speaker 3 (02:38):
Yeah, ful proof, feel proof.
Speaker 2 (02:40):
All right, what's the what's the signal? I mean, what's
the message we're getting from precious metals here? Because, by
the way, it's not just silver, and they're not just gold,
as palladium, as platinum. All the precious metals are massively
outperforming everything else. And the Turkish portfolio that we wrote
about the other day, equities are in gold amazing, but
equities in gold they're not a post to go up
(03:00):
together like this.
Speaker 3 (03:02):
Yeah, I mean, I suppose this is why it's getting
called the debasement trade, and the debasement trade is the
Turkish portfolio basically image you can't trust the stuff that
is denominated in the currency anymore.
Speaker 2 (03:15):
You can't trust ca can't trustpond. You need real stuff.
Speaker 3 (03:20):
I mean, I do think also it is there is
a bit of you know, it's going up, and it
keeps going up, and it's gone parabolic, and I don't know,
I don't know about you, but I think in the
post bitcoin era, where you know, it's an asset, went
from you know, twenty thousand dollars to one hundred thousand
dollars and the one.
Speaker 2 (03:41):
Really ready reminded that only one of your hostsholds bitcoin.
Speaker 3 (03:45):
Yes, i'd silver for them, but yeah, if that can
rock it like that, then I think there's there's much
more of a sense that well, actually, this guy's the
limit for anything. So although I do, you know, I
have more faith in gold's fundamentals, whatever they are, than
they're doing, for example, backcoins, I can also see how
(04:08):
the fact that everyone's seeing these things happen in the
past gives the momentum trades much more.
Speaker 2 (04:12):
Rumors maybe, and retail investing is really picking up right,
retail flows into ETFs and also retail into physical We
keep hearing about various outlets having shortages of physical gold
and sover because the rush is so intense, and either
that's a massive FOMO. I think one of our competitor
organizations referred to retail bias going in this week purely
(04:33):
at FOMO, which I think is patronizing.
Speaker 3 (04:36):
It is kana patronizing, especially after recent years. I don't
think you can I really don't actually think you can
call the kind of retail invest the money has always no.
Speaker 2 (04:47):
I mean, I think there is maybe just more of
a sense among all investors at the grounds are the
ground is shifting under our feet. The monitory ground is
definitely shifting. Have we known about god a lot of Diajohn,
I've talked quite a lot of people about the ideas
that Roger Lee had when he was on the podcast
a few weeks ago talking about the fiscal event coming
for the UK, and he was talking about it being
(05:08):
not a certainty, but definitely not a non zero possibility
that the UK would have an unpleasant fiscal event. That's
nice economists euphanis euphemism, if we but when you think
through it, it's very hard to imagine what prevents a
fiscal event, what prevents the UK hitting some kind of
fiscal wall, And the only thing that stops it is
a phenomenally successful budget in November and it's hard to
(05:31):
see how we can have a phenomenally successful budget in November,
because it's hard to see how the Parliamentary Labor Party
would accept the spending cuts and the manifesto busting tax
rises that would be necessary to make it what he
would consider it to be a successful budget in fiscal terms.
Speaker 3 (05:48):
Right, Yeah, No, I mean, and I think, I mean
the think that's one thing that is interesting politically was
actually the Japanese election, and I think one of the
things that give the impetus to Gold and the rest
of them this week was the idea that basically Japan
elected a female prime minister soon to be probably female
(06:09):
prime minister who is more dubbish or perceived to be
more dubbish and more like ABB and that she'll encourage
more money print and she'll encourage the Bank of Japan
to keep interest rates low. And whether that's true or not,
I think that's given a bit of an impetus to
the overall debasement trade. And I think, you know, I
(06:30):
do think the idea that will end up getting yield
curve control basically, which is what we're talking about when
we're talking about returning to QE.
Speaker 2 (06:39):
He is just keeping interest rates low. Even in the
free market, they wouldn't be low.
Speaker 3 (06:43):
Yeah, you have to print money buy gilts rather to
stop them from blowing up. Basically you can see that.
Speaker 2 (06:49):
Yeah, and again this is what Roger was talking about
having this conversation that you know, you get to anati point,
my guilt yields start to rise beyond the level where
it is sustainable for the UK taxpayer to keep the
show on the road. And at that point you need
a massive battle que to keep us down, at which
point the Bank of England, in order to hang on
to some tiny vestige of what remains of as right
put Haitian, would have to demand some kind of physical
(07:12):
restraint from the government. And that's where things could conceivably
go horribly wrong, or on past performance from these MP's
will definitely go horribly wrong.
Speaker 3 (07:20):
Well, I mean, well, imagine that Bank England not it's
all okay, imagine the Bank England. Can I take trying
to take the IMF ton't with you, k I mean,
I just don't think that would be possible. I think
that there would be a reasonable argument that the central
bank can dictate democracy what it can do, and then
of course what happens is everything does go pear shaped.
(07:41):
And you know, I mean that was the point calling
in the IMF in the seventies. It was together kind
of neutral referee to make it happen, to make it happen,
and I'm just not sure. I don't think the Bank
England could play that role with someone.
Speaker 2 (07:54):
But at some point time, the town only comes when
you when the population accepts the town. And I wonder
of you know, retail purchasing of gold at the beginning
of the acceptance of the turn. Yeah, there's a problem
and something has to change, and you know, a contractionary
seeming disaster has to be part of that change anyway
(08:15):
to depressing. Let's not talk about that anymore.
Speaker 3 (08:17):
It's really interesting that again, and we've talked to this before,
but it used to be the sexty forty portfolio and
a few talks putting any gold inn there you wear
out on the frenies. And the other day I saw
it retali Or, who obviously is a bit fringy, but
he was saying it was fringly as the biggest edge
one can be. But you're seeing fifteen percent.
Speaker 2 (08:38):
Is what you should Stanley. Didn't they put out a
thing saying twenty percent.
Speaker 3 (08:41):
Yeah, and you're kind of like, hang on, We've been telling.
Speaker 2 (08:44):
You this for years, and now suddenly you're twenty percent
here and twenty percent there, and you know, but then,
if you think about it, why would you put any
bonds into a portfolio if you don't if you don't
trust paper anymore, you don't want cast and you don't
want bonds, and you have to replace the you know
what felt like the risk free element with something else.
What's it going to be?
Speaker 3 (09:02):
Well, the other interesting was, and I don't know if
you've seen this, but MEB Faber, the guy from Cambria, aid,
I think it is. He. Yeah, he's very good, and
he's always putting out stuff about portfolio construction and all
the rest of it. He was making the point the
other day, if you'd constructed the sixty forty portfolio, but
it's about substituted points for gold since like nineteen seventy
(09:23):
three or something like that, you'd have exactly the same
return slightly higher for gold, actually slightly higher, but go gold.
And he did it for another couple of things, and
his basic point was that you know, you could just
have substituted gold entirely. Oh, going for actually the Turkish
option for sixty forty Turkish.
Speaker 2 (09:42):
Entering entering, isn't it? We probably now overthinking, but I
keep thinking about I would dominate. Was saying the other
day Dominic for his Beyond the Podcast back goal that
we did earlier in the week about how gold is
there pretty much the only way you get to touch eternity.
Speaker 3 (09:56):
Yally, that's a good line. I love it, a good one.
Speaker 2 (09:58):
I loved it. Did I think we were getting a
bit religious on the board, you know, but it was
rather a lovely lie. I weren't going to touch my
rings was.
Speaker 3 (10:09):
Platinum. I'm not even sure where that comes from.
Speaker 2 (10:12):
That was very fashionable when both of us got married.
My wedding ring and the days platform platinum. I've been
touching another ring. But when we got married, John and
I obviously we got around the same time. I think
very fashionable to have a platinum ring.
Speaker 3 (10:25):
Yea, it was. And the fortunate now much more of
fashion victim than you arguement for the classics.
Speaker 2 (10:29):
So yeah, yeah, well I think you know, we don't
know what classical victims we are until it until it
becomes clear. Now listen, before we go onto one more thing,
stand duty. As you know, no that I'm not going
to talk about that. Actually I just got us in trouble.
We're not gonna talk about that, but we're going to
talk about stamp duty.
Speaker 3 (10:43):
And that was the show.
Speaker 2 (10:46):
After the show and the on the the cuts that
you guys don't get to listen to. So Kenny bad
Knock in that speech that apparently went down very very well.
We went there sleeve and because we don't do that
kind of political stuff, but went down very well. She
talked about just getting more stamp duty crossboard.
Speaker 3 (11:02):
Yeah, well actually not across the board. Second homes, yeah,
sating Tom still have it, and the commercial property so
but I mean, but yeah, basically the stuff that normal
people are used to paying.
Speaker 2 (11:14):
Yeah, and this makes sense, and we will loath stamp duty.
It's the most inefficient stamp, most inefficient tax. It's a
ruined lives that makes it impossible to buy first time
because you'll come up with such a lumpzone because you
can't add stamp duty to your mortgage. It prevents all
the people's downsizing. You might say it shouldn't, but it does.
It's a psychological barrier to other people selling their houses
and buying another house that don't want to buy that stamp.
Speaker 3 (11:36):
So I didn't have any downsizing money once you paid
you know, twenty odd grind for whatever they're downsizing from, right,
I mean, I think you know, there's there's very rational
economic reasons for it.
Speaker 2 (11:46):
So you know it just comes up the market.
Speaker 3 (11:48):
Yeah, it means it's terrible. And the other thing is
just like, I mean, one of the things I find
interesting is as soon as you talk about this, because
everyone's been so brainwashed, it's like, oh a, well, if
you give up the you know, five million, nine billion
whatever's going to be at that point from stamp duty,
how what are the tax seeking the raise? Like, look,
you're going to encourage growth because there's say you increase
(12:10):
the number of transactions by twenty percent, that means increasing
the amount of money going down the economy, increasing the
number in new kitchens getting fitted. You're get to more money.
Speaker 2 (12:19):
Yeah, you all that kind of thing.
Speaker 3 (12:21):
So it's you're not you don't have to replace it directly.
And also there is this other option called cutting spending,
which unlike you know, the Labor Party, the Tories are
well than happy to do ideologically. So one thing you
can be sure.
Speaker 2 (12:34):
Of is they haven't done that for years? Well? Yeah, absolutely,
I mean so we're we're going to have to call
the new Tory Party. Yeah. Is wanting to cut taxes,
well say they are, but you know it's a tough
gig cutting not cutting taxes, cutting spending in the UK.
Speaker 3 (12:48):
It is, although I suspect it's not going to be
as difficult come the next From the physical event, I
feel austerity kind of like drum somewhat, but yeah, come
the fiscal event.
Speaker 2 (13:04):
Okay, do you know what? She should move on to?
Abolishing stamp duty in the equity markets. It's a logical
next stage. I mean, now I think about it, I'm
rather surprised she didn't. An interesting report of one of
the brokers earlier today pointing out that actually a very
large number of people are put off investing in the
UK market because of the stamp duty. You always think
it's kind of niche and marginal, but it's really not.
(13:25):
People know that they pay more to invest in than
they do in other countries. Well, and it very off putting.
Speaker 3 (13:30):
Why colleagues, because it's huged an interesting piece this morning
about Astrazen because it's going to upgrade its US listing,
and it's going to go from a d RS to
the kind of full blowing US lesting. And basically what
that means is you're going to have a almost like
a taste case market where people can buy in America
(13:50):
not be the stamp duty. And that'll just easy because
most broadcasts with all so you know, we'll start to
get a better that kind of cross country comparison and
maybe it will be an easier case to make than
it currently has been. Yeah, I mean, I can see
why she didn't mention it because it's such an easy
thing for the opposition that didn't say it's tax counts
(14:12):
for the rich. But I don't think that also very
contact with reality for now.
Speaker 2 (14:16):
I don't think so, because, as we say over and
over and over, pretty much everyone in work in the
UK now has an equity portfolio, whether they know it
or not. So that is a tax car for everyone,
and it's also one that might actually drive activity in
the UK, might actually drive some growth, and certainly would be,
as we said so often, would be a signal to
the rest of the world that well, we might not
look like it, we are actually open for business. Some
(14:38):
business anyway, business that fits inside our regulatory environment.
Speaker 3 (14:41):
And to be fear of Rachel Reeves, I'm pretty sure
that she probably is on board by that. It's just
been told enough times exactly right.
Speaker 2 (14:49):
We can hope, John can't.
Speaker 3 (14:50):
We can hope.
Speaker 2 (14:54):
I hope that you're all enjoying your gold and silver
profits and your bitcoin profits.
Speaker 3 (14:59):
Well, if it's plenty. It was a bit of that,
which is quite nice.
Speaker 2 (15:01):
Yeah, send us more, send us questions, and don't blame
us when it all goes wrong. Thanks for listening to
this week's Marrin Talks Money debrief. That wasn't financial advice.
By the way, we do not give financial advice. Thanks
for listening to this week's Marin Trooks money Debrief. If
you like our show, rate review and subscribe wherever you
listen to the podcasts and keep sending questions or comments
to Marror Money at Bloomberg dot net. You can also
(15:22):
follow me in John on Twitter or x I'm at
Marin OSW and John is John Underscore Steppeck. This episode
was hosted by me Marren Sumset Web. It's produced by
Summersadi and Moses and
Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News.
Speaker 2 (00:16):
Welcome to the Marin Dogs Money News Roundup, where we
talk about the biggest moves in the markets this week
and what's driving them. I'm Maren zum Zap, Web Editor
at Large at Bloomberg UK.
Speaker 3 (00:25):
Wealth, and I'm Joined Stairpek, Senior report of Bloomberg and
authored the Money Distilled newsletter.
Speaker 2 (00:30):
He missed out award winning. He doesn't want me to
tease him anymore.
Speaker 3 (00:33):
Just I just feel that people are board. It's just
they've had enough.
Speaker 2 (00:37):
No one's ever going to be bored with your awards.
You're not gonna happen, right listen, speaking of awards, I
should have an award, Yes, you should have an award. Yes,
you know. I was looking up some of my articles
about gold this morning, not because I think about myself
a lot or anything like that, but because I just
wanted to see how long we've been writing about gold.
At twenty years, it really such a long time, and
(01:00):
I pulled out a few. A few two thousand and
six was one of the most one of the most
sort of prescient ones I found in nine, two thousand
and seven, thousand and eight, thousand and nine, literally every
single year. You will regret it if you do not hold.
You will regret it if you do not. All going.
We're in a lurly sometimes and ups and downs along
the way. Here we are now.
Speaker 3 (01:21):
Yeah, and honestly you're both very good at calling the top.
In twenty eleven, I assume Ember, I'm gonna take that.
I was, yeah, no, you know, an editors later for
money weeks saying you should maybe tape off. It's new,
and I always clean up all that's really Yeah, you
knows nothing.
Speaker 2 (01:36):
This is the greatest ball market of well ignore her.
Just to be clear, listeners, I won't be able to
do that again. There is no way I'll gather the
top right twice. It will come and I will miss
it almost definitely.
Speaker 3 (01:47):
Oh that's a shame. I was hoping you were going
to tell us something.
Speaker 2 (01:50):
But I'll try, John, I'll try anyway. The little pool
back today over four thousand dollars and then down a bit,
but by the way, actually up in stunning towns today slightly,
but a little bit. And then there's silver. Yeah, John
has been waiting for silver for so long, John.
Speaker 3 (02:06):
I have I mean purely as a spected but yeah,
it's fifty dollars, is I mean, I suppose it's the
thing I've been looking for. Is that's quite a body
in signal in some ways, or it's a breaking new
ground signal, and they'll be very interesting to see where
it closes today, because if it closes below fifty today,
having gone up through it, then I'll probably be more
(02:28):
bodied than this. Maybe the beginning. Well, you know, it's
the resistance, it's the option.
Speaker 2 (02:36):
Absolutely full proof that stuff.
Speaker 3 (02:38):
Yeah, ful proof, feel proof.
Speaker 2 (02:40):
All right, what's the what's the signal? I mean, what's
the message we're getting from precious metals here? Because, by
the way, it's not just silver, and they're not just gold,
as palladium, as platinum. All the precious metals are massively
outperforming everything else. And the Turkish portfolio that we wrote
about the other day, equities are in gold amazing, but
equities in gold they're not a post to go up
(03:00):
together like this.
Speaker 3 (03:02):
Yeah, I mean, I suppose this is why it's getting
called the debasement trade, and the debasement trade is the
Turkish portfolio basically image you can't trust the stuff that
is denominated in the currency anymore.
Speaker 2 (03:15):
You can't trust ca can't trustpond. You need real stuff.
Speaker 3 (03:20):
I mean, I do think also it is there is
a bit of you know, it's going up, and it
keeps going up, and it's gone parabolic, and I don't know,
I don't know about you, but I think in the
post bitcoin era, where you know, it's an asset, went
from you know, twenty thousand dollars to one hundred thousand
dollars and the one.
Speaker 2 (03:41):
Really ready reminded that only one of your hostsholds bitcoin.
Speaker 3 (03:45):
Yes, i'd silver for them, but yeah, if that can
rock it like that, then I think there's there's much
more of a sense that well, actually, this guy's the
limit for anything. So although I do, you know, I
have more faith in gold's fundamentals, whatever they are, than
they're doing, for example, backcoins, I can also see how
(04:08):
the fact that everyone's seeing these things happen in the
past gives the momentum trades much more.
Speaker 2 (04:12):
Rumors maybe, and retail investing is really picking up right,
retail flows into ETFs and also retail into physical We
keep hearing about various outlets having shortages of physical gold
and sover because the rush is so intense, and either
that's a massive FOMO. I think one of our competitor
organizations referred to retail bias going in this week purely
(04:33):
at FOMO, which I think is patronizing.
Speaker 3 (04:36):
It is kana patronizing, especially after recent years. I don't
think you can I really don't actually think you can
call the kind of retail invest the money has always no.
Speaker 2 (04:47):
I mean, I think there is maybe just more of
a sense among all investors at the grounds are the
ground is shifting under our feet. The monitory ground is
definitely shifting. Have we known about god a lot of Diajohn,
I've talked quite a lot of people about the ideas
that Roger Lee had when he was on the podcast
a few weeks ago talking about the fiscal event coming
for the UK, and he was talking about it being
(05:08):
not a certainty, but definitely not a non zero possibility
that the UK would have an unpleasant fiscal event. That's
nice economists euphanis euphemism, if we but when you think
through it, it's very hard to imagine what prevents a
fiscal event, what prevents the UK hitting some kind of
fiscal wall, And the only thing that stops it is
a phenomenally successful budget in November and it's hard to
(05:31):
see how we can have a phenomenally successful budget in November,
because it's hard to see how the Parliamentary Labor Party
would accept the spending cuts and the manifesto busting tax
rises that would be necessary to make it what he
would consider it to be a successful budget in fiscal terms.
Speaker 3 (05:48):
Right, Yeah, No, I mean, and I think, I mean
the think that's one thing that is interesting politically was
actually the Japanese election, and I think one of the
things that give the impetus to Gold and the rest
of them this week was the idea that basically Japan
elected a female prime minister soon to be probably female
(06:09):
prime minister who is more dubbish or perceived to be
more dubbish and more like ABB and that she'll encourage
more money print and she'll encourage the Bank of Japan
to keep interest rates low. And whether that's true or not,
I think that's given a bit of an impetus to
the overall debasement trade. And I think, you know, I
(06:30):
do think the idea that will end up getting yield
curve control basically, which is what we're talking about when
we're talking about returning to QE.
Speaker 2 (06:39):
He is just keeping interest rates low. Even in the
free market, they wouldn't be low.
Speaker 3 (06:43):
Yeah, you have to print money buy gilts rather to
stop them from blowing up. Basically you can see that.
Speaker 2 (06:49):
Yeah, and again this is what Roger was talking about
having this conversation that you know, you get to anati point,
my guilt yields start to rise beyond the level where
it is sustainable for the UK taxpayer to keep the
show on the road. And at that point you need
a massive battle que to keep us down, at which
point the Bank of England, in order to hang on
to some tiny vestige of what remains of as right
put Haitian, would have to demand some kind of physical
(07:12):
restraint from the government. And that's where things could conceivably
go horribly wrong, or on past performance from these MP's
will definitely go horribly wrong.
Speaker 3 (07:20):
Well, I mean, well, imagine that Bank England not it's
all okay, imagine the Bank England. Can I take trying
to take the IMF ton't with you, k I mean,
I just don't think that would be possible. I think
that there would be a reasonable argument that the central
bank can dictate democracy what it can do, and then
of course what happens is everything does go pear shaped.
(07:41):
And you know, I mean that was the point calling
in the IMF in the seventies. It was together kind
of neutral referee to make it happen, to make it happen,
and I'm just not sure. I don't think the Bank
England could play that role with someone.
Speaker 2 (07:54):
But at some point time, the town only comes when
you when the population accepts the town. And I wonder
of you know, retail purchasing of gold at the beginning
of the acceptance of the turn. Yeah, there's a problem
and something has to change, and you know, a contractionary
seeming disaster has to be part of that change anyway
(08:15):
to depressing. Let's not talk about that anymore.
Speaker 3 (08:17):
It's really interesting that again, and we've talked to this before,
but it used to be the sexty forty portfolio and
a few talks putting any gold inn there you wear
out on the frenies. And the other day I saw
it retali Or, who obviously is a bit fringy, but
he was saying it was fringly as the biggest edge
one can be. But you're seeing fifteen percent.
Speaker 2 (08:38):
Is what you should Stanley. Didn't they put out a
thing saying twenty percent.
Speaker 3 (08:41):
Yeah, and you're kind of like, hang on, We've been telling.
Speaker 2 (08:44):
You this for years, and now suddenly you're twenty percent
here and twenty percent there, and you know, but then,
if you think about it, why would you put any
bonds into a portfolio if you don't if you don't
trust paper anymore, you don't want cast and you don't
want bonds, and you have to replace the you know
what felt like the risk free element with something else.
What's it going to be?
Speaker 3 (09:02):
Well, the other interesting was, and I don't know if
you've seen this, but MEB Faber, the guy from Cambria, aid,
I think it is. He. Yeah, he's very good, and
he's always putting out stuff about portfolio construction and all
the rest of it. He was making the point the
other day, if you'd constructed the sixty forty portfolio, but
it's about substituted points for gold since like nineteen seventy
(09:23):
three or something like that, you'd have exactly the same
return slightly higher for gold, actually slightly higher, but go gold.
And he did it for another couple of things, and
his basic point was that you know, you could just
have substituted gold entirely. Oh, going for actually the Turkish
option for sixty forty Turkish.
Speaker 2 (09:42):
Entering entering, isn't it? We probably now overthinking, but I
keep thinking about I would dominate. Was saying the other
day Dominic for his Beyond the Podcast back goal that
we did earlier in the week about how gold is
there pretty much the only way you get to touch eternity.
Speaker 3 (09:56):
Yally, that's a good line. I love it, a good one.
Speaker 2 (09:58):
I loved it. Did I think we were getting a
bit religious on the board, you know, but it was
rather a lovely lie. I weren't going to touch my
rings was.
Speaker 3 (10:09):
Platinum. I'm not even sure where that comes from.
Speaker 2 (10:12):
That was very fashionable when both of us got married.
My wedding ring and the days platform platinum. I've been
touching another ring. But when we got married, John and
I obviously we got around the same time. I think
very fashionable to have a platinum ring.
Speaker 3 (10:25):
Yea, it was. And the fortunate now much more of
fashion victim than you arguement for the classics.
Speaker 2 (10:29):
So yeah, yeah, well I think you know, we don't
know what classical victims we are until it until it
becomes clear. Now listen, before we go onto one more thing,
stand duty. As you know, no that I'm not going
to talk about that. Actually I just got us in trouble.
We're not gonna talk about that, but we're going to
talk about stamp duty.
Speaker 3 (10:43):
And that was the show.
Speaker 2 (10:46):
After the show and the on the the cuts that
you guys don't get to listen to. So Kenny bad
Knock in that speech that apparently went down very very well.
We went there sleeve and because we don't do that
kind of political stuff, but went down very well. She
talked about just getting more stamp duty crossboard.
Speaker 3 (11:02):
Yeah, well actually not across the board. Second homes, yeah,
sating Tom still have it, and the commercial property so
but I mean, but yeah, basically the stuff that normal
people are used to paying.
Speaker 2 (11:14):
Yeah, and this makes sense, and we will loath stamp duty.
It's the most inefficient stamp, most inefficient tax. It's a
ruined lives that makes it impossible to buy first time
because you'll come up with such a lumpzone because you
can't add stamp duty to your mortgage. It prevents all
the people's downsizing. You might say it shouldn't, but it does.
It's a psychological barrier to other people selling their houses
and buying another house that don't want to buy that stamp.
Speaker 3 (11:36):
So I didn't have any downsizing money once you paid
you know, twenty odd grind for whatever they're downsizing from, right,
I mean, I think you know, there's there's very rational
economic reasons for it.
Speaker 2 (11:46):
So you know it just comes up the market.
Speaker 3 (11:48):
Yeah, it means it's terrible. And the other thing is
just like, I mean, one of the things I find
interesting is as soon as you talk about this, because
everyone's been so brainwashed, it's like, oh a, well, if
you give up the you know, five million, nine billion
whatever's going to be at that point from stamp duty,
how what are the tax seeking the raise? Like, look,
you're going to encourage growth because there's say you increase
(12:10):
the number of transactions by twenty percent, that means increasing
the amount of money going down the economy, increasing the
number in new kitchens getting fitted. You're get to more money.
Speaker 2 (12:19):
Yeah, you all that kind of thing.
Speaker 3 (12:21):
So it's you're not you don't have to replace it directly.
And also there is this other option called cutting spending,
which unlike you know, the Labor Party, the Tories are
well than happy to do ideologically. So one thing you
can be sure.
Speaker 2 (12:34):
Of is they haven't done that for years? Well? Yeah, absolutely,
I mean so we're we're going to have to call
the new Tory Party. Yeah. Is wanting to cut taxes,
well say they are, but you know it's a tough
gig cutting not cutting taxes, cutting spending in the UK.
Speaker 3 (12:48):
It is, although I suspect it's not going to be
as difficult come the next From the physical event, I
feel austerity kind of like drum somewhat, but yeah, come
the fiscal event.
Speaker 2 (13:04):
Okay, do you know what? She should move on to?
Abolishing stamp duty in the equity markets. It's a logical
next stage. I mean, now I think about it, I'm
rather surprised she didn't. An interesting report of one of
the brokers earlier today pointing out that actually a very
large number of people are put off investing in the
UK market because of the stamp duty. You always think
it's kind of niche and marginal, but it's really not.
(13:25):
People know that they pay more to invest in than
they do in other countries. Well, and it very off putting.
Speaker 3 (13:30):
Why colleagues, because it's huged an interesting piece this morning
about Astrazen because it's going to upgrade its US listing,
and it's going to go from a d RS to
the kind of full blowing US lesting. And basically what
that means is you're going to have a almost like
a taste case market where people can buy in America
(13:50):
not be the stamp duty. And that'll just easy because
most broadcasts with all so you know, we'll start to
get a better that kind of cross country comparison and
maybe it will be an easier case to make than
it currently has been. Yeah, I mean, I can see
why she didn't mention it because it's such an easy
thing for the opposition that didn't say it's tax counts
(14:12):
for the rich. But I don't think that also very
contact with reality for now.
Speaker 2 (14:16):
I don't think so, because, as we say over and
over and over, pretty much everyone in work in the
UK now has an equity portfolio, whether they know it
or not. So that is a tax car for everyone,
and it's also one that might actually drive activity in
the UK, might actually drive some growth, and certainly would be,
as we said so often, would be a signal to
the rest of the world that well, we might not
look like it, we are actually open for business. Some
(14:38):
business anyway, business that fits inside our regulatory environment.
Speaker 3 (14:41):
And to be fear of Rachel Reeves, I'm pretty sure
that she probably is on board by that. It's just
been told enough times exactly right.
Speaker 2 (14:49):
We can hope, John can't.
Speaker 3 (14:50):
We can hope.
Speaker 2 (14:54):
I hope that you're all enjoying your gold and silver
profits and your bitcoin profits.
Speaker 3 (14:59):
Well, if it's plenty. It was a bit of that,
which is quite nice.
Speaker 2 (15:01):
Yeah, send us more, send us questions, and don't blame
us when it all goes wrong. Thanks for listening to
this week's Marrin Talks Money debrief. That wasn't financial advice.
By the way, we do not give financial advice. Thanks
for listening to this week's Marin Trooks money Debrief. If
you like our show, rate review and subscribe wherever you
listen to the podcasts and keep sending questions or comments
to Marror Money at Bloomberg dot net. You can also
(15:22):
follow me in John on Twitter or x I'm at
Marin OSW and John is John Underscore Steppeck. This episode
was hosted by me Marren Sumset Web. It's produced by
Summersadi and Moses and
Host
Merryn Somerset Webb
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