Mr. Money Talk

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Episode Transcript

(00:10):
Moody afternoon. This is Josh Arnold, mister Monday Talk with Judd Arnold here
to answer your questions on stocks,bonds, mutual funds. You should position
your investment dollars including your IRA infour oh one K. Don't hesitate to
give us a call nine two ninefive five six eight. That's nine two

(00:31):
five five six oh eight. Youalways get straight talk, not sure coded
advice. Say before we jump in, we have to do the standard disclaimer.
Everything that we discuss on this showis for discussion purposes only, and
nothing should be construed as investment advice. Some are all of the securities that
we discuss in the show may ormay not be suitable for you as an

(00:52):
investor. Do not make an investmentdecision without consulting a financial advisor. Investing
in the stock market contains risks,including the risk of loss. Well,
Friday finished out with not too manylosses at least on my screen, an
awful lot of green on the screen. And this despite the fact that we

(01:18):
had twelve Fed governors speaking this week, all seeming to say this, I'll
say, continue with the same mantrahigher for longer, but we do reserve
the rate or that we do.We do reserve the right to increase interest
rates. Should should data indicate thatinflation is picking up, because we are

(01:45):
still ways away from our two percentinflation target. Meantime, you know,
the bond market first, UH wentup earlier this week, then came down,
and the bond market finished on apositive note. So bonds increased in

(02:09):
price, yields came down in price, or and that was a nice spur
for the for the market. Oilhas come down despite some of the issues
in the in the Mid East,and earnings seemed to be a little bit

(02:32):
better than had had been It hadbeen expected, particularly amongst some UH technology
companies, and even even Walt Disneyjud came in a little bit better than
than expected. I mean, well, I know you're not big on Disney,

(02:59):
but I'm just saying I don't ifwe don't spend anything better than expected.
Sure, but you know the Disneyearnings were okay. If we don't
spend any money on content because ofthe writer's strike, we have free cash
flow. You're guiding towards not spendinga lot of money on content. Well,
if you don't spend money on content, you don't know content. So
Warner Brothers, which is the otherbig media conglomerate, had dreadful, dreadful

(03:23):
earnings. Media we continue to stayaway from. But I think you hit
the nail on the head, whichis the running joke for thirteen fourteen years,
is some combination. Today it's theMags seven, the Magnificent seven.
It used to be the fang stocks, but it's all the same stuff,
Facebook, Microsoft, Apple, Google, Amazon, Tesla in video? Did

(03:50):
I forget any of I forget?I think I think you hit them.
You hit them all. Obviously,big big companies. That's where the money
goes. It doesn't matter, itdoesn't matter. Everything is good for these
companies. Every bad piece of newspeople say, well, I sleep well

(04:11):
at night with those seven. Everygood piece of news people say, well,
those seven are going to make money. And I think you started your
soliloquy, if I may, withwhat I thought was a very interesting development
for the last two weeks, whichis, as many politicians and i'll say
activists scream from the hilltops that thewar between Israel and Hamas in the gaysa

(04:35):
strip is going to expand into WorldWar three, I would humbly point out
that the oil market can only godown. And in a debate between people
screaming, you know, excitedly andecstatically, with no agency in the overall
outcome, and one where people actuallyhave to bet money, that being the

(04:59):
oil market, it says a lotthat the oil market isn't doing anything.
In fact, it's going down duringthe worst piece of the worst time I
should say, of Middle East conflictin recent memory. So there you go,
and you just have to have tohave to look and say Opek has

(05:20):
continued to curtail production, the Russianshave continued to curtail production, and we're
not seeing a massive amount of drilling, at least in the United States.
More of the fact, you're seeinga lot of consolidation in the oil patch.

(05:44):
Well, you got a few dynamicsthere in the oil patch, which
is the US oil patch, particularlythe Permian basin which is in West Texas,
which is effectively produces more oil thantwo kuwaits at about five and a
half million barrels a day, andthe world uses about one hundred and two
million barrels a day. For context, the US does about twelve in total.

(06:05):
But shale growth is share oil growthis slowing, and we're seeing you
know, my portfolios are certainly positionedfor offshore oil to come back in vogue,
and that's been an issue. Butyou know that takes a lot of
time to drill my favorites there atTidewater and Noble. You can also look

(06:26):
at Valaris or rig But or Slumbersif you want something more liquid. But
yeah, this is this is thetheme oil in general. The energy stocks
had two huge years in twenty oneand twenty two and have done absolutely nothing
this year. It's been a yearof consolidation where semiconductors and the NASDAK stocks

(06:47):
have really taken the lead after adrubbing in twenty twenty two, so that's
been interesting. As we wrap up, twenty twenty two is rapidly approaching the
rear view mirror and it's amazing howfast, how fast this year is gone.

(07:08):
And I'll say, as I getolder, the years go buy a
lot faster. Yes, yes theydo. And as we sit here today,
the S and P five hundred offifteen and a half percent for the
year, while the equal weighted Sand P five hundred is down thirty four
basis points for the year. Thatspread of fifteen percent that we have talked
about all year. It was sittingat ten percent for a while, and

(07:31):
now it's fifteen. It's the Magseven, separate from everyone else, and
it's really causing a lot of questionsfor people. It's been a year very
much of a lot of macro noiseand nothing really changing. Mag seven,
Mag seven, Mag seven. We'vetalked, We've gone through at least one
banking crisis that I'm aware of,which is the Silicon Valley bank crisis and

(07:54):
First Republic. It looks like we'regoing to have another one. But you
know, you just buy the Magseven and you go to bed at night.
I guess, well that they havethey have been the they have been
the leader. We own two twoof the Mag seven, Apple and Amazon.

(08:18):
But if I start looking at atthe other uh, the other parts
of the Mag seven or the Magnificentseven, But I start looking at the
amount of cash that these companies haveon the balance sheet, and very few
people have a very few analysts havesaid jeez, with interest rates up even

(08:43):
on a short term basis, andthe amount of cash that these companies carry,
analysts are not even looking at thecash that or I'll say the cash
that, the cash that they haveon hand generates particularly for you know,
for short term money. I mean, I think you can look at you

(09:09):
I think you can look at aniche point like that, and I I
think that's fair. I think whatwhat I would push on is just simply
the spread we talked about, whichis the gap between the S and P
five hundred market cap weighted uh inthe equal weight. Or you can look
at small cap stocks, which isthe Russell two thousand, which is the
bottom two thousand of the top threethousand biggest stocks is down three percent for
the year. Investing inherently is momentum. The only thing getting a bid.

(09:33):
The best business is the best capitalstructures, the least amount of debt.
It's the mag seven And well,we'll see how long this plays out.
It could go on for a while. You never you never know. But
what we have to come back now, we do have to come back.
When we come back, we cantalk about some or other earnings besides Disney

(10:00):
and where things look for the balanceof this year. This is Josh Arnold,
Mister Money Talk with Jut Arnold hereto answer your questions on stocks,
bonds, mutual funds, how youshould position your investment dollars. Call us
nine five two nine two five fivesix oh eight. We're always here to

(10:20):
help you. This is Josh Arnold, mister money Talk with Jut Arnold here
to answer your questions on stocks,bonds, mutual funds, how you should
position your investment dollars. Give usa call nine five two nine two five

(10:41):
five six oh eight. That's ninefive two nine two five five six oh
eight. We're always happy to meetwith you. When we're concluded talking about
the mag Magnificent seven and how theyhave separated themselves from the pack. Jud

(11:05):
And you brought up the equal weightedS and P five hundred being negative for
the year, the overall market tapweighted S and P representative of how most
people track the market being up fifteenpercent. We have not really touched on

(11:28):
how much the bond indices are downfor the year. The long term Treasury
TLT is down twelve and a halfpercent for the year. Three years in
a row. That's three years ina row. You've gotten your face ripped
off with bonds. I think peakedat three year total return in bonds in

(11:52):
treasuries is I think it's minus thirtyfive percent. You like corporate bonds,
the LQD, which has investment greatbonds down three percent for the year.
Again, this is all interest rates. And this is the part of the
show that we do every week wherewe remind people it's all nice for warm
and fuzzy. When people say,hey, look at that yield, don't
you want to buy it? Tbills and chill, so to speak.

(12:13):
But if you buy long duration bondsand you're wrong on that rate and it
goes up, you know, onehundred base points or one percent, that's
typically about seven eight points on yourbond, so you're stuck in that bond
to where you can take a lossand until interest rates subtle, I just
think the idea of taking duration.We're not bond people. Let me just
we'll start there for table stakes.I get why people are bond people.

(12:37):
Actually I don't get it. Equitiesalways out for fom bonds in the long
term. I mean, obviously,that's why the economy works. Like the
idea that a lower risk instrument's goingto have a higher return than a higher
risk instrument is just it's it's lunacy. But some people like bonds, and
all we tell people, if youreally want bonds short duration right now,
the idea of locking it in longterm and potentially exhorbing losses, it's just

(13:00):
crazy. But that's just us.Some people, you know, really like
the long term bonds and they canlose twenty percent in them, and they
can feel warm and fuzzy at nightbecause they say, we'll hold it for
twenty years and all amortise. Focusingon well, here's my yield. I
can't get that, you know,four and a half five percent yield on
stocks that you cannot on most stocks. But in total, on a total

(13:26):
return basis, we would just humblypoint out in a rising interest rate environment,
which is something that has not existedsince nineteen eighty two, I want
to say, well, that wouldbe pretty pretty close to correct. It's
if you buy a long term bond, you have to be prepared to hold
it to maturity or accept losses,and that is a risk that most people

(13:50):
are unaware of. But let's talk. Let's go back to stocks. We'll
let these bond people do their likewe can. We can kind of segue
from the bonds into the stuff becauseI'm sure you might have well that's kind
of interesting, I'm sure, whichis a definitive and then I say,
well, you might not have,but you might have heard the interview this

(14:13):
morning on CNBC with Ron Baron andRon Baron talking about he's never owned a
bond, and he points out thatin his investment career, which dates back
to the late sixties when the Dowfirst hit a thousand, and today the

(14:37):
dal Jones' is thirty four thousand.If you would put money into bonds and
bonds in nineteen seventy, we're yieldingabout seven percent. So if you locked
in, we'll say, a fiftyplus year bond and got seven percent over

(14:58):
that periodiod of time, you wouldhave been paid for each one thousand dollars
that you put into a bond.You would have been paid seventy dollars a
year, and today you'd get yourthousand dollars back. If you put the
money into the Dow, with allthe ups and downs that have transpired in

(15:20):
the last fifty three years, yourmoney would have gone from one thousand up
to yeah thousand, significant amount ofmoney, even with all the volatility,
all the problems that occurred over thatperiod of time. Buy stocks, buy

(15:43):
stocks, buy stocks, but notall You can be very diversified. You
can buy an ATF you can dovery well. You can do what we
do where we buy individual stocks.Be careful out there. It's a hard
game. Speaking of speaking of hardgame, Now what up? I'm I'm
I gotta get some off my chest. I am exhausted. I am exhausted

(16:04):
from bond treasury bond auctions. Andeverybody having a view, and everybody having
a view on J Powell, theFederal secretary. You know J Powell speaks
this week or he spoke this weekend. Sp J Powell spoke twice this week.
And then you had eleven other FEDgovernors speaking. The most hawkish was

(16:27):
the Minneapolis FED governor, Neil cashCarry. None of these people know.
Look, you don't have to listento any of them, because they've already
told you. We don't know.We're data dependent, we're monitoring, we're
closer to the end. In thebeginning. There's a lot of Fed policy
discounted in stocks. And that's it. And this myopic Oh he said this,

(16:52):
he said that. Get over you. I it's just it's exhausting,
my cheap stuff. Close your eyes. But some people, we got a
warrant market on Thursday, reacted negativelyto comments from FED governors, and yeah,

(17:12):
that's why I'm saying that didn't goas well as they thought. We
are in a period where nobody wantsto take risks stocks or jittery. The
only stocks working are the biggest,most liquid stocks. These are high risk
periods of time. What I cansay is in my career historically, when
we've been in times like this wherenobody wants to take risk and only the
big liquid stuff is working, istypically a time when you can make a

(17:36):
lot of money if you hold forone to two years on stuff that's perceived
to be more risky. So I'mjust I continue to not see a major
credit event, which is the onlyway in my lifetime that the markets have
really blown up. What's a creditevent? Jud What do you mean?
What is a credit event? Judtell us a credit event is a major

(17:56):
financial institution blows up. That's acredit event. You can have the European
sovereign debt crisis from twenty that waslate twenty eleven. You can obviously have
COVID where a lot of banks couldhave gone under if the FED wouldn't have
been there. Obviously, the globalfinancial crisis and so forth. We had
a mini credit event with Silicon ValleyBank that the FED acted decisively to stop,

(18:21):
but absent a credit event, andI just don't see anyone defaulting so
well. Would you say a creditevent could occur in the commercial real estate
market, I'd say ones already occurringin terms of losses, but those losses
aren't big enough to dislocate the market. The stock market that is, so

(18:41):
it's really hard to get a commercialreal estate loan. We're seeing buildings in
San Francisco and Chicago sell for relativepennies on the dollar relative I mean fifty
to seventy bucks a square foot whennew build is I don't know, six
hundred seven hundred to square foot.You know what I'd say, joke.

(19:03):
You know what I what I calla joke on replacement costs. The problem
is most people are aware that SanFrancisco is a really hard place to be
and if there's ever going to beworked from home forever, it's going to
be in the San Francisco tech bubble. You've got an urban spiral there where
you have failed politicians, failed policies, lots of crime, and you know,
flight of people who want to bethere. Which is pretty scary.

(19:26):
At the same time, I'm surepeople are going to make a lot of
money buying that. But that inand of itself, it's gonna hit some
banks. It's going to hit somepeople. But it's just not enough.
It's just not enough to cause youknow, a massive seizure of markets.
You need to see commercial paper gounder. You need to see mortgage bonds

(19:48):
go under. That's the individual mortgage. I just don't see it. We've
got two wars going. We gotthe mint. Well, actually, there's
way more than two wars of peopleare you know in Armenia. Oh that's
the Armenians once again. If youknow an think about history, man,
it's it's never good to be anArmenian for the last one hundred and fifty
years apparently, and they're getting slaughteredagain. But the two wars the people
in the west are focused on isUkraine and Israel Hamas And we're just chugging

(20:14):
along the stuff. You know,we'll see we're in a touchy of political
moment. We'll see on inflation.But as we said at the start of
the show, and we'll just keeprepeating, the market shrugs all the stuff
off oils down, interest rates aredown, and the mag seven are up
and we'll be right back. Thisis Josh Arnold, miss your money Talk
with Judd Arnold here to answer yourquestions on stocks, bonds, mutual funds,

(20:37):
how you should position your investment dollarsincluding your IRA in four oh one
K. Don't hesitate to give usa call at nine five two nine five
five six eight. That's nine fivetwo nine two five five six eight.
You'll always get straight talk, notsugarcoated advice. This is Josh Arnold missed

(21:00):
or money Talk with Judd Arnold hereto answer your questions on stocks, bonds,
mutual funds. You should position yourinvestment dollars including your IRA in four
oh one K. Don't hesitate togive us a call at nine to five
two nine two five five six oheight. That's nine five two nine two

(21:21):
five five six eight. You alwaysget straight talk, not sure coded advice.
Say if you missed the start ofour show, we got to make
another reminder to you. Everything wesay on this show is for discussion purposes
only. Nothing should be construed asinvestment advice. Do not make a financial
decision without consulting your investment advisor.Some are all of the securities we discussed

(21:41):
in the show may or may notbe suitable for you. Investing in the
stock market attains risk, including therisk of loss. All right, let's
get back to it. Not alot of risk of loss for the Magnificent
seven. Interest rates down in oildown, mag seven up. No other
stock can work, That's where weare. I'm s sure that there there
are other stocks that can can workin this environment. Uh. Do you

(22:06):
have the semiconductor segment that is heis working, whether it's Micron advanced micro
devices. The video, the videoseems to be more of a trading sardine
than any anything else. Taiwan Semiconductorhas has done very very well recently.

(22:32):
You know, others might have havesome some issues. You've got the next
week, the President Biden is meetingwith Chi in San Francisco, and I'm
sure they're going to be discussing technology, among other things. Uh. And

(22:52):
when it comes to technology, theseare things that I'm not sure are going
to work. Uh. Coming upnext week or in the future, you're
going to start seeing earnings coming fromretail. Next week is big, big
week with for retail including Walmart,Target, and Costco reporting reporting some numbers

(23:22):
and one of the and I'll sayan interesting development. Just this is a
company that I that keeps popping upon my solitaire game Team MoU h people
people wanting to shop or wanting meto shop on Teamu another internet retailer that

(23:49):
is owned by p d D Corporation, which is a Chinese internet retailer,
which also owns a company called PinDuo Duo. But I noticed that Timu
has overtaken another internet retailer, Shinein Japan and South Korea, and has

(24:18):
been making inroads here in the inthe United States. H. So there
is we'll say, more competition forinternet retailers from We'll say this happens to
be a Chinese, Chinese backed company, but that that is one thing we've

(24:45):
we've been seeing and maybe it'll havesome some impact on Walmart's earnings, Costco's
earnings, and Targets earnings when theyand others other other retailers when they I
just I'll say a million times everytime we talk about it, I don't
think big retail earnings mean anything tothe economy. I think I'm the channel

(25:08):
of consumer behavior. I just don'tthink it means anything. I think this
is old school. Read the tealeaves stuff. We get all these data
feeds now, and it's just nothow people's lives lives work that you would
have to get a cross section ofpeople spending, which you get from the
credit card people. To look atWalmart's spending, it tells you nothing,

(25:30):
and to look at Costco, ittells you nothing. Okay, Costco is
a great business. Walmart's an okaybusiness, But I just don't think it
matters. And I think this isthis is old school. So I was
really speaking of retail. I amthere's this great podcast out there with Charlie
Munger. It's one of the firstpodcasts he's done. I think I mentioned

(25:52):
it last week, and I amjust keep going back to Charlie pitched worn
on Costco for more than a degate to buy it, and it's worked,
and Charlie was right and Warren waswrong. And they asked Charlie,
this is a couple of weeks agoon this podcast, so why do you
think Warren didn't buy it? Why? And Charlie said, We've invested in
retail for seventy years, and Warrenjust said, Charlie, it never works.

(26:18):
Out in retail, they always goto zero and I'm okay missing this
one. So you brought up Walmart. They beat out Sere. You know,
they bankrupted Sears and Kmart. Therewas still plenty of room for Amazon.
If you told Walmart investors twenty yearsago what Amazon was going to do,

(26:40):
they probably would have sold their Walmart. Amazon's done it and Walmart's still
here. But we'll see. Ijust it's a very hard space to make
a lot of money. Now.The flip side of this is typically the
richest person in almost every country isa retailer. So you can look in
Europe with the zar Uh the familythat owns Zara, and you can also

(27:03):
look at LVMH. Yeah, andso I think what I would modify that
as and you can look across mosteconomies. This tends to be very true.
And I think what it is it'speople who can hold on to a
brand value and extract economic rents.And I would just say, from you

(27:29):
know your portfolio, you largely dothat. I don't think conceptually there's very
there's a big leap between the rolein people's lifestyle that LVMH and their own
brands play in people's lives and Appleor Amazon. It's all a play on
the same thing, which is youwant mind share and you want something,

(27:51):
you want ease of use, andyou want something that brings you utility.
And so that's part of where howyou've ended up in the portfolio that you've
had. It's a different expression ofthe same concept. Well that that would
be, that would be true.You have Louis Vaton moway Is. We'll

(28:15):
call it an aspirational, very aspirationalbrand. They did have, Uh,
they did have some issues when theyreported their numbers, which brought the brought
the stock down, but longer term, they've done very well, very well.
Walmart has recently hit hit another newhigh. But I know from their

(28:41):
last meeting or their last earnings report, Uh, you know, it was
quite concerned that their food business wasnot doing as well, and they said,
well that was that's because of allthe we'll say new diet drugs that
are out out there that come fromcompanies like Nouveau Norse and Eli Lilly.

(29:10):
Uh talking I hear issues unrelated tofood. Yeah, well, look,
Walmart's the biggest grocer in the country, so you know you brought up the
weight loss drugs, and I'll justsay a lot of stocks have been obliterated
by the weight loss drugs, andI belief that Americans are gonna be healthy,

(29:33):
healthier. I will just humbly makea courageous prediction that we're going to
find out five years from now thatthese weight loss drugs have a lot of
side effects and people aren't aren't goingto use them. Well, you probably
probably find that out sooner than thanfive five years. It's my understanding.
A lot of these weight loss drugsif you stop taking them, like anything

(29:55):
else related to to weight loss,if you if you stop doing something,
the weight comes back on. We'veseen that before with you know a lot
of the other weight loss weight lossproducts. We'll say, other than some

(30:18):
other than a company that might helpyou modify your behavior. Oh yeah,
oh yeah. So that's that's somethingsomething work out. It's it's super simple,
work out. Do it during thebreak and we'll be right back.
Okay, this is Josh Arnold,mister money Talk with jud Arnold here to

(30:41):
answer your questions on stocks, bonds, mutual funds. You should position your
investment dollars, including your IRA andfour oh one K. Don't hesitate to
give us a call two nine twofive five six oh eight. We're always
here to help you. This isJosh Arnold, mister Money Talks with Judd

(31:08):
Arnold here to answer your questions onstocks, bonds, mutual funds. You
should position your investment dollar including yourIRA and four one K. Don't hesitate
to give us a call. Ninefive two nine two five five six oh
eight. That's nine five two ninetwo five five six oh eight. You

(31:30):
always get straight talk, not sugarcoded advice. Well this week too,
jud some of my favorite companies didreport earnings, including the likes of Win

(31:51):
and they've got very nice hotels MGM, Mirage reported, DraftKings had reported a
week ago, and and Caesars hadreported a week ago. And then Flutter
which owns Fandel reported reported numbers.UH Market did not treat you know those

(32:20):
those companies very very well, particularlyWin Resorts, which beat, but analysts
didn't like the results from one oftheir hotels in Macau. In gaming gaming
is the problem with it is itthey have a lot of leverage, and

(32:43):
anything with leverage in this market isnot working. That goes across industries.
Everything with leverage is a sideway stock. There's just no demand. And we're
in this jump ball and we startedthe show talking about MAG seven and forget
everything else, and this is aperfect example MAG seven. The S and

(33:05):
P five hundred market cap weighted indexis up fifteen and a half percent for
the year. The equal weighted Sand P five hundred is down slightly.
The Russell two thousand, which aresmall and MidCap stocks, is down three
and a half percent. There's bidfor the MAG seven and a few big
gross stocks that have no debt.When I say leverage, it's a fancy
word for debt on their balance sheet. And everything that is perceived as cyclical

(33:29):
or economically sensitive and if it hasleverage, forget about it. And we've
gone through periods like this many atime in my investing career, and it's
frustrating if you own those stocks.And what I like to think about it
in a positive way as well,I've got deferred P and L deferred profits.

(33:50):
They're coming to me once they turnthe light switch on in the market.
I'm gonna get paid, but youmight not. So it certainly is
testing your conviction. This year hasbeen for me, it's been a beautiful
year, but a big test Theones I thought were gonna work didn't,
the ones that reported great numbers didn'twork, and a few random ones worked

(34:12):
really really well. But if youtold me what the results of all my
stocks were at the start of theyear, I would be stunned at this
return distribution. Well i've been,I'll say, since I get most of
my returns from Apple and Amazon,since that covers the bulk of i'll say,

(34:37):
my portfolio, my client's portfolios.I've been pretty happy this year.
It's a lot of crazy than Iwas disappointed last year, particularly with Amazon
and how people were treating Amazon.This year, as Amazon Web Services has

(34:59):
gone and gotten a little better,uh plus at continuing to add customers.
You know, Amazon stock is goingup despite the FTC suit against them,
the ft Oh god, don't evenget me started. The FTC. We
got we've got two wars going onover the world, and the FTC is

(35:21):
suing everybody for antitrust with with legalcases that wouldn't make it out of junior
varsity you know, night school.It's just wow, junior varsity night school.
You can't. I mean, it'sjust so terrible, and you know,
not to get on the soapbox herebut I mean one of the just
infuriating things. You look at what'sgoing on in these college campuses and just

(35:43):
the sheer lunacy. I don't mindwhen people disagree with my opinion, but
when you when you make up yourfacts and dogmatically hold on to them,
that's no longer a school that becomesa religious institution. And if we're going
to if it's a religious organization,that's that's why the school don't have to
pay taxes and can claim five ohone C three tax status. Yeah.

(36:06):
Well, I think that's all goingto change, and I think the political
earthquake is coming, but not justin the U. I like the fact
that you start talking about they becomedogmatic or and or you make up your
own facts. Well, we talkedabout oil. I'll just bring up the
oil example that we brought up inthe start of the show. There's a
lot of people out there trumpeting aroundthis thesis that World War three is coming

(36:30):
and the world's going to end andall the other stuff, and I will
just point them humbly to the priceof oil and the price action of oil
since the Israel Hamas War began,it is way down, and the difference
between people who bet on oil oilprices and the people who protest the college
campuses. Is one of those peoplehas their own money at stake? Yeah,

(36:54):
the people who bet on oil beton oil. So which one are
you going to believe? But sobe it. I'm not sure anybody on
the college campus who says anything atstake, No, of course not.
They've got, you know, fivehundred grand of student debt backed by Uncle
Sam being forgiven. We're gonna makenon college graduates pay for degrees in post

(37:20):
colonial studies, whatever the heck thatmeans. But that I always thought the
colonial colonial period was was prior toeighteen ten. Well just remember no different
than the priests from five thousand yearsago, who when we ran out of

(37:43):
bad people had to invent new ones. So too is it with the postmodernists
and the intellectuals. You know,when bad ideas it's the old saying.
When bad ideas have nowhere to goand die away, they go to college
campuses and become courses. But sobe it, you know. As as
the other thing I like to sayto those people occasionally is listen, we

(38:06):
can continue that debate, but aslong as you acknowledge that I have made
my order and yes I want frieswith that. Then we can continue.
Oo. That's very very good here, seaky, cheeky ky, very good.
As we preview next week, asyou mentioned, we got a few
more earnings coming up, we've gotmore fed speak. At some point we're

(38:28):
gonna have the seasonal effect kicked in. And maybe it kicked in on Friday,
where typically mid November through mid Januarythe best time of the year to
own stocks. That is a seasonalphenomena. It doesn't have to be true
this year, past results or noguarantee of future success. As we sit
here though, and as I lookout at the setting sun, and as
you do as well, I'll tellyou we're both we both had some great

(38:50):
years for our clients this year.It feels nice. It's nice to be
up big, and you know itdoesn't happen every year, but it's been
a beautiful year. Well. Asyou said, patients can get rewarded,
and particularly if you're investing in companiesthat have rising sales, rising earnings and

(39:15):
provide a product or service that peoplewant. Amen, Amen, Amen,
Amen to that. So give usa call next week. In the meantime,
don't hesitate to give us a callnine five two nine two five five

(39:37):
six eight. I am Josh Arnold, Mister Money. Talk with Judd Arnold.
See you next week. Josh ArnoldInvestment Consultant is a registered investment advisor
located in the state of Minnesota.All securities discussed are for informational purposes only.
Investing contains risk, including risk ofloss. Consult your investment professional before
making any decisions about your investment portfolio.