Nerd Sesh - Conference Finals Predictions: Will OKC BEST Wolves, Pacers or Knicks to Finals? - Nerd Sesh

Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:02):
No, no, oh my god, how could he do that?
By no, don't watch what Charles Darwin. The nerves is
where it's at.

Speaker 2 (00:18):
Welcome everybody back into Nerd Sash. As always, I'm Carson Bravern.
Alongside me is Logan Camden, and today we are going
to be previewing both conference final series. I cannot wait
for both of these matchups, and we're gonna start, Logan
with the one that is getting started first, that being
Thunder Timberwolves. This was a very interesting regular season matchup.

(00:42):
These teams split the regular season series two games to two.
Always need to add some context to any regular season numbers.
Chet misses two of those games, Julius Randal only plays
in one of those games, so we haven't necessarily gotten
a ton of looks at the full scope of this matchup.
But the first thing that stands out to me, Logan,
what I think about this series is how the Minnesota

(01:03):
Timberwolves and particularly their stars are going to perform against
a Thunder defense that was historic this regular season, that
currently has the biggest gap between it and the number
two playoff defense that we have seen since nineteen seventy one.
How do you expect Anthony Edwards in particular, to perform

(01:26):
in this matchup.

Speaker 1 (01:27):
That really is the first big key to me in
this series, Carson, and specifically when we're looking at the
key to winning this for both sides, the Wolves and
the Thunder, I think it comes down to which defensive
unit can more reliably make the others more uncomfortable. And
Ant did play in all four games against Oklahoma City
in the regular season. He gave him twenty two to

(01:47):
nine and six on just fifty four point seven percent
true shooting, and a lot of that is bolstered by
how much he got to the line. He only shot
thirty six percent from the field and thirty one percent
from deep. And the reason that I think it's really
important to focus on Ann is because I think for
the Wolves to win this series, Anthony Edwards has got
to be the best player in this series, and I'm

(02:08):
just not super confident that that's gonna happen. Really, there's
not a defensive matchup that I think is food for Ant.
Ant is really special because he's super, super explosive and
can just blow by guys on ball and can get
to the rimit will, but he can also just get
torrentially hot and just rain down threes from behind the arc,

(02:31):
and I think the OKC defense can make shots tougher
for Ant more than any other team because they have
so many elite defenders. Again, I don't think there's a
matchup that is really super Bowl super favorable for Ant.
J Dubb, an all NBA caliber defender I think can
really hold his own one on one, is not going
to give up anything. I don't think he can abuse

(02:51):
chet Holmgren on switches. I think with that seven foot
six wingspan, he can do a really good job of
getting out to the perimeter and contesting those shots. Alex Caruso,
I don't think it's gonna be easy, Lou Dort. There's
just you know, Casn Wallace. There's a lot of guys
that Oklahoma City can throw on to Ant, and I
don't think Ant has a really great advantage against all
of them. More so because in Oklahoma City does a

(03:13):
great job collectively as a team of cutting off driving
lanes and cutting off the basket. They also have two
really high impact rim protectors, and so I think Oklahoma
City Carson is going to do a really good job
in this series of making Ant a jump shooter. And
when I say that, some people may say, well, isn't
that also good for Minnesota. You know, Ant was a

(03:34):
historically great three point shooter this regular season, he was
I regurgitated this stat throughout the regular season. Only three
other players have shot thirty nine and a half percent.
It was forty for most of the year. Unfortunately, he
came down that half a percent to make the stat
a little less.

Speaker 2 (03:49):
Loss. Some aras that loss, some aras just a little bit.

Speaker 1 (03:52):
But it's still Ant and the names are still the
same on ten threes a game, it's Curry, it's Clay,
and it's Damian Lillard. But I think that's there to
play Anthony Edwards. I think Oklahoma City has the personnel
to do that. These are guys that apply tremendous ball pressure.
They're gonna get up and ants dribble, They're gonna pack
the paint, they're gonna get into driving lanes, They're gonna

(04:12):
work together as a team, and I just think this
is the best defense in the league. Dude, you mentioned
that stat at the top. That's ridiculous, Carson. This is
a historically great defense. And we've been talking about this
all regular season, and some people have tried to downplay
that fact, but I think that that's where Oklahoma City
really hangs their hat, and that is their secret weapon.
That is their key advantage in this series, and I

(04:34):
think they can make life harder on Anthony Edwards than
anybody else can.

Speaker 2 (04:38):
I don't know how much of a secret weapon it is,
but I do still think it's underappreciated that we are
literally looking at one of the greatest defenses of all time.
You look at what they did to Yolkics in that
Denver offense. We have never seen anybody slow them down
at a level comparable to that. Over a seven game series.
They dominate teams, and it all starts on the defensive end.

(04:59):
So I do think that this is by far the
toughest matchup that Ant has faced in these playoffs, and
it's just by far the toughest matchup that he could
face because it's not just easily the best defense in basketball.
This is the one team that actually has multiple dudes
who have a good chance to stay in front of Ant.
Nobody on the Lakers could stay in front of him

(05:20):
on an island. The Warriors did a better job, but
still it was not nearly at the level of the
perimeter defense are getting from Lou Dort, from Alex Caruso,
Caseon Wallace Jadub, all those guys. But I expect Dort
and Caruso to be the primary ant defenders. And it's
not just that those guys are such great screen navigators.
It's not just that those guys move their feet so
well that they have that quickness on ball. It's also

(05:42):
the strength and it's the physicality. But Ant's special because
he's not just lightning quick downhill, he's also exceptionally strong
for having that kind of speed. These are two dudes
who can counter him quite well on both of those fronts,
especially with the strength, and we know they are going
to lean into playoff physicality. And then, as you said,

(06:02):
this is also the defense with by far the best
rim protection in basketball. They're holding teams comfortably to the
worst field goal percentage inside of six feet of any
defense in these playoffs. So they can just defend him
straight up much better than anyone else can. Because the
Lakers had to get very gimmicky with their defense. This

(06:23):
is a team that has elite point of attack personnel
and they have elite back line personnel. Where you think
it's going to be difficult for it to get past
their perimeter defense consistently, and when he does, he is
driving into the most difficult paint to finish in in
all of basketball. I still think, though, we're gonna see
some varied coverages, and I do think we'll see some
aggressive looks from OKC, Like for the most part, when

(06:46):
he's running pick and roll, I expect them to bring
two up to the level and dare him to make
reads and dare to make passes over all of Okac's length.
In ball pressure, we might see some switching because the
OKC bigs are that mobile, But I still think that
Aunt would be more comfortable working one on one against
a Chet or a Hertenstein. Then he will be trying

(07:06):
to deal with again that sort of pressure with two
on the ball. And then even if he gets out
of that and he makes a solid pass, now you
have an OKC defense that is way better in a
scramble than anybody else, that is so fast, that is
so great at playing in rotation, and I still think
they could disrupt some of those Minnesota shooters. Run of
Mike Conley off the line, challenge of Jaden McDaniels, more

(07:28):
attacking closeouts. That's a real superpower that they have that
collective speed Defensively. I also think we'll probably see them
mix in a little zone. Think they'll pick their spots
with it. But again, just so Ant can't really get
comfortable seeing the same coverage over and over again, test
him as a decision maker in a different way. Keep
those bigs park in the paint so they are fully

(07:50):
locked in as rim protectors and they're in that role
at all times. I just think they'll throw a lot
at him. I think he'll see multiple primary defenders. I
think he'll see different coverages. I think they'll do whatever
they can and to keep him from building an offensive rhythm.
And as you said, this regular season was a struggle
for him as a scorer against OKC. So if I
do look at the couple keys for him, I agree

(08:11):
it's the outside shooting because it's gonna be hard for
him to drive and finish in this matchup. He's already
shooting under fifty five percent in the restricted area in
these playoffs. We've talked about some of his issues finishing
at the rim. The degree of difficulty there skyrockets in
this matchup because of the level of rim protection he's
going up against, and then the playmaking is the other

(08:31):
real key to me, that's been a key throughout this series. Overall,
he's done a pretty good job, but he has to
consistently make the right decisions when he does see these
aggressive coverages and it's playing at a really high level.
I think that this is a totally different level of
a challenge than anything that he's seen in the playoffs period.
I think this is a different level than the Dallas
defense that he saw last year that was really good

(08:52):
and that gave him trouble, Like I expect ant to
struggle a fair bit in this series relative to his standard.

Speaker 1 (08:59):
I think that's a good way to put it. I
think this is the toughest playoff defense that he's played
in his entire NBA career. I think this is the
toughest challenge of his young NBA career so far. And
the only thing I wanted to add on top of
that was that I think that I agree with you,
Oklahoma City can defend and better one on one two,
but because of some of the potential spacing limitations with

(09:20):
some of the lineups, if you have a go bear
in there too, Okay, see also isn't incentivized to like
move guys out of the paint where they can, they're
gonna be They're not gonna be punished as much for
packing the paint in those lineups as well too, where
you can bring another help side defender over there too
to take that side of the rim away. It's just
nothing's gonna come easy for Ann in this series. And

(09:42):
that's huge to me. With Oklahoma City and I don't
feel that way. I don't want to take anything away
from this Minnesota defense. I think they're great, but I
don't feel that way about SGA against this Minnesota defense.

Speaker 2 (09:55):
Before we get into that, I do want to ask
a few more questions about the Minnesota offense against.

Speaker 1 (10:01):
I've still got a few more keys there too.

Speaker 2 (10:02):
Oh, I'm so glad to hear that, Logan. Let's talk
about Julius Randall. This has been the redemption arc of
all redemption arcs for him. He's been excellent in these playoffs.
I would say he's been their most consistent player game
to game and has been their most impressive performer relative
to expectations. How do you think he fares in this series.

Speaker 1 (10:23):
I'm not super confident that it's going to be a
great Julius Randall series either. Now, I've already been burnt
in these playoffs, Thank you, Julius. I like being proven
wrong sometimes, man, especially when guys just ball out. Julius
Randold's been excellent in these playoffs as a decision maker
as a scorer, and I was completely wrong. I doubt it, Julius,
but I really think this is a feast or famine

(10:44):
series for him. Now he only plays one game in
the regular season against Oklahoma City wasn't great. I don't
think it's too important to delve into the specifics of that.
But when I look at the matchup, he's going to
be facing two because this isn't Oklahoma City team that,
like you mentioned, card and can switch everybody. So it's
not gonna be like one primary defender for Julius. You're

(11:05):
gonna be matched up against basically everybody on this roster.
And I don't see anything easy for Julius either. If
it's Jaylen Williams, if it's Alex Caruso, if it's Lou Dort.
The only thing that I do see that Julius could
do potentially is physically overpowered these guys. But they're all
also really really strong. They're all NBA caliber defenders. They

(11:25):
have elite instincts, but most importantly, they can all apply
ball pressure and get up into Julius Randall's dribble. And
that's the area where I'm really really worried about Julius.
And that's why I specifically say feast or famine, because
there is a world where I could see Julius playing
bully ball with some mismatches. If it's a case on,
if it's a slider guy that he gets switched on right,

(11:46):
maybe Isaiah Joe or something like that. I could see
Julius bullying certain matchups that are on the floor. But
I could also see these guys wreaking havoc on Julius's dribble,
speeding him up and forcing him into some really bad
tendencies where maybe we see him slip into some of
that old Julius Randall where he's coughing the ball up uncharacteristically,
he's settling for really bad shots. So I am worried

(12:08):
about Julius Carson. I think that this could be a
really really difficult series for him in terms of getting
easy things. I would like to see Julius make good decisions.
That's what I really want him to see is when
he has those difficult assignments, kicking it back out, screening, moving.
I don't want Julius to do too much in this series.

Speaker 2 (12:29):
It's a really difficult matchup. This Okasee defense is just
that special. Like you said, in the one game that
Randall played against them, he didn't fare very well. He
had eleven six and six four turnovers, forty six percent
through shooting. Don't want to react too much to that sample,
but we did get a look at how Okac was
mostly willing to play him, and they were willing to
play him primarily in single coverage off post ups. I

(12:52):
think that that speaks to the level of confidence that
they have in a number of their defenders. And I
do think that Randall is also going to see multiple
different looks in different matchups in this series. I do
think that Hartenstein will start on him because Okay, so
he has consistently gone with that double big starting five.
I do think that Hartenstein is just one of their

(13:12):
five best players, and so he should be out there
to start these games. And you want to have a
counter for Minnesota size and physicality in the front court.
And I think that Hartenstein will actually guard Randall really well.
I think that he is an excellent strength counter. I
think that he can move his feet out in space
well enough. But then obviously Hartenstein is only going to
play maybe twenty five twenty eight minutes per game in

(13:33):
this series, so you're gonna get lots of minutes where
it is the Wings who are matching up with Julius Randall,
and then I would really love to see Caruso take
on that match up a good bit because I think
he is just such a hound. I think that he
is so strong, and I think if you look at
what he was able to do with Jokic fronting him
jostling for post position, his ability to guard larger players

(13:57):
out of the post is really pretty exceptional. His hand
are so ridiculously good, so I think that he could
give Randal some trouble. I also think that Jalen Williams,
as you mentioned Jadubb, could have some good possessions. I
also think maybe we see a little bit of Jay Will.
We obviously saw him deal with the Yolkic matchup where
sometimes they would go Jay Will at the five, but

(14:17):
oftentimes it was Jaywill as that primary post defender on
Jolkic to have a big physical strength counter for him,
and then you have Chet as the back line defender.
I do think that Chet is going to be on
Gobert this entire series. I just think obviously you don't
want him dealing with Randall because Randal has so much strength,
and I think that you want your best rimp protector

(14:38):
as your back line defender the entire time, and Check
can be most effective and active as a helper when
he is matched up with Gobert. So I do think
that Randal will have his opportunities, as you said, where
he's getting single coverage and he has a strength advantage.
I just think OKAC has shown that they have plenty
of ways to counter some of those size and strength

(14:58):
advantages with how they've defended some of these big physical
frontcourt guys with their fight with their hands exactly.

Speaker 1 (15:06):
I think that if Randal gets one of those mismatches
in the post two, Okac's defense is so good at
rotating and reacting that I don't think he's gonna be
able to abuse that mismatch in single coverage long. I
think this team would collapse on Randal and try to
force the ball out like they're.

Speaker 2 (15:21):
Just well, they were willing to let him play one
on one in the first matchup. But I don't disagree
like I'm saying, if he is really getting to his
spots exactly, there is not a better team at doubling
and recovering and forcing turnovers. When they do bring multiple
defenders onto a post up or into the action, onto
the ball in any way, they're just so disruptive and

(15:43):
they're so destructive. So I definitely think this is gonna
be a tough series for Julius Randall. That level of physicality,
that level of activity that many really good one on
one defenders. But then if he is more comfortable as
a one on one score, that's when I think they
start bringing the doubles consistently, and I think that sort
of pressure can speed him up a bit. I think
you're absolutely right with the ball pressure. Julius Randall. Isolating

(16:06):
against these perimeter fenders, if we're talking about him starting
from the perimeter, is not good news. When he's trying
to go at mismatches, it should absolutely be out of
the post. And even that, man, it's hard as hell
to get these guys the ball, Like, look at how
hard it was for Jokic to get the ball when
okay See was guarding him with these wings, especially Caruso.
So he's been balling like I'm not expecting a Julius

(16:26):
Randall meltdown or anything. He's been playing at a really
high level. I just think this is a super hard matchup,
and I think his efficiency is going to take a
considerable dip. I would expect to see some more turnovers.
This is just what Okase does to everybody man, and
I really think it is, like top to bottom, this
series is going to be harder for everybody on Minnesota. Offensively,
I think it's going to be harder for Jaden McDaniels,

(16:47):
who has had a really good postseason Offensively, he's averaging
fifteen and a half points on sixty three percent true shooting.
But this is a team that can really pressure him
out on the perimeter, that has crazy active hands. They're
really good to test his handle, his comfort against that
sort of ball pressure. They're gonna bring real physicality. He's
been very impressive as an inside the arc score. They're

(17:08):
gonna make life super hard on him. So I just
think the Minnesota offense is gonna struggle, and they do
have a couple of advantages. Strength is the biggest one,
right with a guy like Julius Randall, with a guy
as strong as Anthony Edwards coming downhill with their overall size,
Oka see obviously is gonna go double big for a
fair bit of this series. I think that they've shown
that they're a really good rebounding team when they have

(17:29):
Hartenstein and Chet both out there together, and also their
wings and guards are just so active on the glass
that they'll fare pretty well there. But Minnesota is also
a really good rebounding team. They have a Rudy Gobert
on the floor. And Minnesota is also a really good
shooting team. Like they have consistently been one of the
best three point shooting teams in basketball. Maybe I shouldn't
say consistently. They had a pretty brutal little lull.

Speaker 1 (17:50):
They were number four in the regular season. But right
thing to me is that Oklahoma City was the best
at defending the three point line. They were the number
one defense. Again, a team shot the worst from deep
against Oklahoma City, So I completely agree with you. I
just don't think anything is going to be easy, man.
I think that Oklahoma City has earned this reputation and

(18:10):
like I feel the same way. I think Minnesota's gonna
serve some of it back to OKC, but I definitely
think it's more dramatic with Minnesota.

Speaker 2 (18:19):
It's just an unrivaled combination of perimeter pressure, perimeter speed
with elite interior defense that the thunder are bringing, special versatility,
special depth, special competitive fire. I think they turn Minnesota
over a lot in this series, because they turn everybody
over a lot. I mentioned this stat last show. They're
averaging the most steals per game that we've seen by

(18:39):
a team in the playoffs to go at least ten
games deep since the nineteen seventies. Man, I mean, they're
just doing stuff that we haven't seen defensively in some
cases ever before and in a lot of cases in
a long time. They just held Denver to a one
to oh three point nine offensive rating. Man, the Denver
Nuggets one of.

Speaker 1 (18:58):
The most defenses, to be clear right, it's.

Speaker 2 (19:01):
Across the entire series. That's over a seven game series.
They made their offense produce like the Washington Wizards this
regular season, this defense is just different. They make life
hell on everyone, and I do expect Minnesota to be
the next victim of that. Experience. It's a one of
a kind treatment to get in the NBA today that
OKC delivers to you. Let's talk about the other side

(19:23):
of the ball though, because you mentioned you think Minnesota's
gonna give some of it back, and this is a
great Minnesota defense as well. How do you expect SGA
to fare? Let's start with the top dog for Oksee.

Speaker 1 (19:34):
I think SGA is gonna be fine. Now, maybe we
see him have to adjust to some things like in
the Denver series, ease into it. But I really like
the level that SGA has been at or reached at
the last three or four games of the Denver series,
Like I just think he's hitting his stride at the
right point, like he's finding that level, and we already

(19:55):
know how consistent he is, so I expect him to
carry some of that on into Minnesota. But SGA wasn't
disrupted by Minnesota really at all in the regular season.
He gave Minnesota thirty five, six and six on sixty
four percent true shooting. That's in four games. And if
I'm Minnesota, I would really be committed to selling out

(20:18):
on Sga. Carson, I'm just not super confident that J
dub is ready offensively, and I would test him in
the supporting cast as much as possible. So that's kind
of my game plan. If I'm Minnesota's defense is not
exactly how Dallas defended SGA, I don't want to go

(20:38):
to that dramatic of an extent. I would try to
defend him one on one as much as possible. I'm
never a guy that traditionally likes to send doubles aggressively
as much because I think SGA is a good enough
playmaker to where you're if you're giving him easy reads,
he's gonna kill you. So I'm trying to defend him
one on one as much as possible with the Jaden
McDaniels with an Anthony Edwards his best as I can.

(21:01):
But I am gonna be ready to send those doubles
and test Jadub in these shooters, because if lou Dort's
on the floor, I'm comfortable leaving him and gambling and
playing over on SGA if JDub is at the level
that he was at in the half court, because he's
a great transition scorer. But if he's at the level
he was in the half court, I'm okay leaving him
alone and letting him work to his mid range jumpers.
He only gave you. He gave you eighteen points a night,

(21:24):
but it was on under forty eight percent true shooting
against Denver. So that's my theory, Carson is I'm gonna
test these shooters as much as possible. I'm gonna trust
I'm gonna test Jadub as much as possible until they're
making me pay if SGA is killing me, because I
think he is gonna get his man like I I
don't think there's a good answer for SGA. I really

(21:45):
think he's the best player left in the playoff field,
and he's really hard to stop. I mean, he can
just score from anywhere inside the arc, and people get tired.
I feel like of us praising SGA for how special
he is and how young he is, but that's just
a reality. He's the best player I think in the
playoff field. He's a top two player in basketball. I
still do reserve that for SGA and Jokic. Shout out Yannis.

(22:07):
I know some people would throw him in there, but
I just have an immense amount of respect for him.
The level that he reached in this Denver series, the
level that he's at right now, and he's the best
scorer in the game today, and I'm banking on him
doing that against Minnesota.

Speaker 2 (22:21):
He is the best scorer in the game today, and
I said that earlier in the year. I think he
had surpassed Jokicic as a scorer. I do feel more
confident in that after this last series, because I did
think you saw with Jokic the ability to limit his
scoring volume more like we were talking about with caruz So,
just making it so hard to even get him the ball.
Sga is always going to have the ball in his

(22:42):
hands when he wants it, and he's going to be
able to create phenomenal efficient offense for you. And he
fried Minnesota this regular season. Man, he gave him thirty
five points per aim on sixty four percent true shooting.
This is a really good defense. They have great point
of attack defense with Jade McDaniels, with Niki Alexander Walker,
they have elite rim protection. Obviously with Rudy Gobert. I

(23:05):
just think if Sga plays how he played in those
last three games against Denver, truly defenses are helpless. Like
that was just such a high level from him that
a defense really can't make that player uncomfortable. He really
found a special groove as a shot maker, getting to
his spots from the mid range, and he was just automatic.
He even started to find the pull up and step

(23:27):
back three and as a decision maker, importantly, he was
getting into the teeth of the defense and he was
making the right reads repeatedly. I would expect him to
continue to play at that level because I do think
a lot of teams are fundamentally going to have the
same approach with SGA, and it's load up on him,
make can beat us as a decision maker, mix in
some zone to test his playmaking and test okacs shooting,

(23:50):
which I do think is a good strategy. Even though
Okase got more comfortable against the zone as that Denver
series went along, and a big part of that was SGA.
Overall in the playoffs, they generate point nine to eight
points per possession versus man in point nine to one
points per possession versus zone, so on average, the zone
defense has been more effective against OKC. But when SGA,

(24:12):
he's getting to all the right spots and he's dialed
and as a shot maker, and you know that he
is always going to have an extremely high scoring floor.
Because of his ability to get to the rim and
get to the line and be so great finishing in
the paint, and then he's making all the right reads,
like at the end of the day, one of the
best guards ever is playing like it right now, and
so I do expect him to be easily, honestly the

(24:35):
most consistent, in the best offensive player in this series.
I think that he is clearly the best player on
either team. And I also think that although both of
these guys are facing difficult matchups, the level of hell
that is awaiting with this OKAC defense is on another
level than what SGA is going to be facing. So
I do expect a very, very good series out of him.

Speaker 1 (24:56):
Yeah, I just don't think there's a ton that you
can do with SGA.

Speaker 2 (25:00):
He's just and he would have to fall back into
the bad habits they were plaguing him early against Denver,
and I can't really see that happening, because it felt
like once he locked in and realized Okay, I'm forcing
the issue some and he was panicking a little bit
under pressure, like he was just so comfortable in those
last three games, and I don't really see why that

(25:20):
wouldn't carry over into this series, or even if he
does start this series slow, why he wouldn't also be
able to adjust and snap back into form. It was
just such an encouraging end of the Denver series makes
me very confident in his level going into this one.

Speaker 1 (25:34):
Yeah, I mean putting up pull up threes like he
really got away from that, and he was hitting some
in game seven. But specifically, I also I do trust
these shooters a little bit more now. I don't think
it's going to be easy because both of these teams.
I mentioned that earlier that Oklahoma City opponents had the
worst three point percentage in the NBA against them, Minnesota

(25:54):
was top five in that category. Two, they're great at
defending the perimeter, and I I think some of these
games could really just come down to which supporting cast
outshoots the other, because they're streaky shooters on both sides.
But there's great shooters on both sides, and I can
definitely see that determining individual games. For the Thunder, that's

(26:15):
less of a concern. I trust their shooting. It's more
to me about Jadab getting going. I think Jadab might
be the X factor for me for Oklahoma City, just
because I don't think I really trust SGA, I really
trust this defense. I really trust Oklahoma City shooting and
their ability to generate high quality three point opportunities. So

(26:36):
the last key to me is just Jadab getting going
a decent amount. I don't think Jadab has to be
great every game. He wasn't against Denver. I just think
you need a few big games from Jadap like you
got in the Denver series. I thought you got two
really good ones, and you need him to just be
at a higher baseline, you know, like, yeah, can you
give me twenty one to twenty two a night on

(26:57):
fifty four percent true shooting? Can we get you know,
so somewhere in the fifties at that ballpark if we
reach those benchmarks, I'm really confident in Oklahoma City. But
I also do think Minnesota can mucket up a little bit. Carson,
we're talking about the physicality battle. If I'm Minnesota, I'm
consistently staying aggressive. I am gonna continue to work down
hill against this Oklahoma City team. I want them potentially

(27:20):
in foul trouble. We're just working at the rim, working
to get downhill, staying aggressive, seeing if we can get
these guys in foul trouble early, and I think it's
really important that Minnesota stays close to the rim. And
the reason I say that is I think that they
could win the rebounding battle in a few of these
games with Gobert, with Randall, with their collective. But if

(27:41):
they're settling for a lot of three point opportunities and
they're not hitting, I really do think that favors Oklahoma City.
With those long transition opportunities, You're gonna feed that fast
break offense, and I think that's just gonna allow Oklahoma
City to get out on the break more. Also, I
would try to protect the basketball as best you can
and work deep into the shot clock. Again, i'd think

(28:03):
an up tempo game in my opinion. The only reason
I say that is because I just wouldn't want to
limit turnovers and I just don't want to feed the
beast because if you're letting long rebounds happen, if you're
turning the ball over at a high rate, letting Oklahoma
City get out in the fast break, I just think
that really favors them, and you're just you're feeding them.
I thought we saw a lot of that in Game

(28:24):
seven against Denver, and you just can't do that against
Oklahoma City.

Speaker 2 (28:29):
You definitely cannot, and yet you will. That's just the reality.
Like they turn teams over at a rate that we
haven't seen in decades, they also protect the ball incredibly well.
They are the best team in basketball at turning teams
over and they are the best team in basketball at
not turning it over. And by the way, Sga is
a huge component of that, regardless of the level of

(28:50):
pressure and physicality that he's facing defensively, and I think
that Minnesota can dial that up, and the physicality is
a key part of it, because if there's any way
to make Sga uncomfortable, I do think it's with that
hyper physical perimeter defense. But he's never going to turn
the ball over. Like he averaged two turnovers a game
against Denver. That's what he did this season. He's the
lowest turnover player to score with the volume that he

(29:13):
does we've seen in the history of this league. With
Ant with Randall, I do think there's a lot more
potential for them to be forced into those giveaways. And
that's where OKAC pulls apart. That's where they separate. It's
that defense into offense. We've seen it way too many times.
I do think that that factor and SGA's consistency gives
Okac an offensive floor that I feel pretty good about

(29:36):
in this series. But there are a couple of real
question marks, and they're the same as always. It's Jadab
and it's the outside shooting. Like I know what I'm
getting from the defense. I know that Jay is going
to play like a top three guy on the planet.
What am I getting out of Jada, That's a question.
What I would like to see from him is him
playing downhill but under control, where you're not getting those

(29:58):
sort of reckless drives and he can struggle playing through
contact and sometimes he's forcing up these out of control finishes.
I want him when he has an advantage, if it's
playing off the catch, if it's in a matchup that
he likes getting to the basket. I want to be
aggressive in transition for sure. I think that's always where
he's at his best as a scorer. And the biggest
swing factor for him is just his jump shot. Because
there have been games where I don't like the process

(30:20):
from him offensively, and I do feel like he's out
of control and he's forcing shots that I don't like.
But the biggest problem last series was he shot twenty
five percent from deep. This is a guy who shot
forty two percent from deep post All Star Break, who
is a very good jump shooter, but can be an
inconsistent one. So I do trust his mid range. I
understand it's not always the most efficient, but he's generally

(30:42):
pretty damn good from the mid range. The three really
has to be falling, and when it is, he's a
very good three level scorer. So I expect this series
to be better for him than the Denver series was
because Games four through six of that series were so
rough offensively. But I do still think there will be
some inconsistency. I don't think you know what you're getting

(31:02):
from Jadab night after night. I just think last series
was an exceptional level of struggle from him, and he'll
be better in this one and he'll be more consistent
in this one. The shooting, I also do have questions about.
Like OKAC was first in three point percentage after January first,
and so I came into the playoffs feeling pretty good
about their overall shooting, but they're fourteenth in three point

(31:26):
percentage in the playoffs. They're only shooting thirty two percent,
and when they have lost games, a lot of it
has had to do with an inability to capitalize on
good looks from beyond the arc. So if they can
really open things up and shoot the three ball at
their regular season level, they're going to be unstoppable. They
will roll their way to a title. But if there's
one thing that's going to hold them back, it would

(31:48):
be those struggles from deep, because that's how you hang
around with them. When Shay's playing at a special level
and the defense is special and the supporting cast is
knocking down all their threes, well then they're just gonna
run away and blow you out. But that is the
question mark, that is the swing factor with this team.
And I don't like how Chet is shooting right now.
I thought that he looked uncomfortable from beyond the arc
against Denver. I thought he did a lot of other

(32:10):
great stuff, but the outside shot I didn't like. I
don't like how lou Dort is shooting. We're looking at
two series deep. This guy's making twenty five percent of
his threes, and so that is the one concern I
would have about this offense. That and Jadub and I
do think that we'll see Minnesota try to put Rudy on,

(32:30):
say a lou Dort. Like with the starting five, Rudy
will be on Hartenstein. But when they go with some
of those groups where it's only one big like especially
if it's Chet and all wings and guards around him,
then I think that they will absolutely put Rudy on
whoever they think the weakest shooter on the floor is
so he can be in that Romer role. And if
you're funneling a lot of shots to lou Dort from three,

(32:52):
I don't like that. If I'm OKC and that's where
I think, as we talked about last series, they have
to be very, very willing to use their depth. I'm
talking big minutes with Cason Wallace out there, big minutes
with Alice Caruso. I like both of those guys more
than do right now than Dort. But with Caruso it's
not even a question. I just think he's a much
better to Wiggins. I agree. I mean, Wiggins offensively is

(33:18):
a very good option, but with caseon with Caruso, you
still get that special elite defensive impact and you get
more versatile offense, not just shooting that is more consistent
right now, but better decision.

Speaker 1 (33:29):
Making from Casson was play making his ass off that
last game.

Speaker 2 (33:34):
Oh absolutely. I mean, he's just an absolute baller. But
Caruso is the guy who I'm really looking at and
I'm saying, Okay, in the Randall matchup, in the matchup, like,
he can make both of those guys so uncomfortable, and
I know that he's gonna make all the winning plays.
I know that he is going to rise to the
moment in a special way. I know that if we
do see his own he's going to be cutting to
the right spots, he's going to be making the right reads,
and he's gonna knock down his shots from the outside.

(33:55):
Just the more versatile, complete player who I want to see.
I do the depth for both of these teams is awesome,
Like I would give Okay See an edge there because
they just go a little deeper than Minnesota. But without
a doubt, these are two of the five deepest teams
in basketball. And I do think that it's gonna be
really fun to see what different groups we see close
different games to this series, because it's not gonna be

(34:17):
the starting five closing every night. I think there will
be a number of nights where we see Caruso closing
instead of Hartenstein, or maybe we see nas Red closing
for Minnesota, or we see Alexander Walker dont.

Speaker 1 (34:33):
Minnesota.

Speaker 2 (34:33):
Yeah yeah, nas very very impressive offensive talent. I think
this is going to be an interesting matchup for him.
I do think that he might also struggle to take
advantage of some of the size advantages that he would
have on paper, because the OKCE defense is that feisty
and he's normally not like a post up player. He

(34:55):
does so much of his work from the perimeter. That's
really difficult against this team. Like he's rate as a
ball handler for his size, it's different when it's Alex
Caruso's walls getting up in your dribble.

Speaker 1 (35:06):
That's what I'm really I think that's probably my biggest
concern with the Minnesota offense, is just the inconsistency of
the handle of all these guys and the decision making
because I have my question mark. You know about Aunt Julius,
Jaden McDaniels, like Ann nas Reed, like all against And
it's not a slight at any of them, man, because
they're great in most matchups. It is quite literally just

(35:28):
the elitability of this OKAC perimeter defense to do that
to team, so I don't want this to come off
as a selight to Minnesota. I also think this is
going to be a hyper competitive series. I think this
is gonna be really really close.

Speaker 2 (35:42):
I think it's gonna be really close as well. I
think it's gonna be very interesting. I am gonna take
Okac in six with the level that Shay is playing at,
with how special their defense is, and just having enough
faith in Jadub and the shooting that's really the swing factor.
Like if Minnesota were to win this year series, which
I think they can, it's going to be because Okac

(36:03):
doesn't shoot well enough from beyond the arc, and it's
going to be because their stars exceed my expectations. At
and Randall are really good in these really difficult offensive circumstances,
but I just trust Okase's ability to make them uncomfortable.
And again, there are certain things with them that you
can just bank on night after night, like winning the
transition battle as convincingly as they do, winning the turnover

(36:24):
battle as convincingly as they do, having such an elite
defensive floor and having the best offensive player on the
floor in the series like that just gives me a
lot of faith in them. Man, you saw it in
the Denver series, which is a different matchup. But I
think Denver and Minnesota are on very similar levels as teams.
Like Okase could let Denver hang around in a game

(36:45):
and then Denver could steal a couple, but when Okac won,
they could really really open things up, and they beat
Denver by thirty twice in that series. Like that's the
potential that they have. And I also think that this
is a different matchup in the sense that, like in
those clutch games against Denver, well, Denver is very very proven.
They're very try and true as a clutch offense. I
don't feel that way about Minnesota. I don't trust their

(37:07):
process nearly as much, and I think, if anything, I
trust Okac's clutch offense more so. Minnesota is a great team.
They're playing great basketball, they're a great defense, they're very
good offense, their depth is excellent. I just trust okay
seymore and I do think that they're the more talented
team overall.

Speaker 1 (37:22):
I'm gonna take the thunder and seven. Basically it comes
down to what I said at the start. I just
think that Oklahoma City can reliably make Minnesota a little
bit more uncomfortable on that end, and I want to
be clear about something. I think Minnesota could win convincingly
in a game where they out physical OKAC on the
glass and they outwork them and Oklahoma City has an

(37:42):
off shooting night. I really see Ant having a couple
of big games in this series, even though this is
a tough matchup for him, I think the most difficult
in the league. I do respect Ant and how special
he is, and I think he's gonna have a few
massive games and Minnesota comes a way with you know,
two or three. But ultimately I trust the Thunder in

(38:05):
their defense. I trust SGA more than anybody else remaining
in the playoffs. And I just can't imagine Jadub looks
worse than he did in that Denver series. Man. I
get it's a little bit of a tougher series, but
he was horrible. I mean, it was just uncharacteristic stuff,
smoking layups. I think Jadup's gonna have a little bit
of a bounce back series, so super competitive, but I

(38:27):
think okay See gets it done on their home floor
in seven.

Speaker 2 (38:30):
I think that last series was a very significant mental
test for OKSE and they passed it. I really thought
that we did see them grow into the playoff moment
as that series went along, and they just have so
many different options. Man, they have so many guys who
are really good basketball players, where even if one of
them is off, you turn to another one, especially Alex Caruso,

(38:52):
He's just gonna step up and win you some big
ass games. So I agree, I am taking Okaci. Let's
talk about the match about East Logan. We've got a
classic throwback rivalry series, Knicks Pacers. Let's start with how
this Indiana offense is going to face the Knicks defense.

(39:16):
How do you expect them to perform it? How do
you expect New York to try to handle an offense
that has been very, very effective all year and especially
in these playoffs.

Speaker 1 (39:28):
I like some of the Knicks personnel, specifically the wings,
you know, Bridges and Ananobi, but I'm really worried about
the double big look and Karl Anthony Towns and Mitchell
Robinson in general in this series. They seem like the
most glaring weak points, along with Jalen Brunson against this
Indiana offense. But specifically I worry about those guys against

(39:51):
Indiana's pace of play in depth, the bigs. I worry
about Cad and Robinson in transition, just getting up the
floor in time. We know this Pacers team, they're aptly named.
They push the pace better than anybody else in the league,
off of buckets, off of turnovers, off of rebounds. They
are flying down to the other end and they're getting
easy buckets. And they've got a guy that capitalizes on

(40:14):
teams not getting back in transition better than anybody else,
and that's Tyrese Halliburton, and this team collectively, it is
just really good at doing that. And so I worry
about the double bigs in transition. I also worry about
them in the half court defending in space. Switches on
Tyrese Halliburton. I think Haliburton could have a big game,
excuse me, a big game, a big series, I think

(40:34):
against the nemhard like. They're just not good perimeter defenders,
and so I worry about them, especially when that's what
Indiana does in the half court. Everybody on this team
can shoot, Everybody on this team can put the ball
on the floor, everybody can make good decisions, and everybody
can protect the basketball. And that's really really problematic when

(40:56):
they're gonna spread this Knicks defense out and make all
these guys in space. I also worry about their depth,
the Knicks, and if they're gonna get worn down late
in this series. They only really run seven deep with
Duce McBride and Mitchell Robinson off the bench, and so
I'm concerned that as this series goes along with how
Indiana gets out and runs, that they could just be

(41:18):
tired and worn down as this series goes on. And
that's not even that's just addressing really the big lineups.
That's not even me addressing Jalen Brunson as a defender,
where I think that anybody could really go with him
one on one, if it's the guards, if it's Halliburton
and them Harten, And let me be clear, Brunson has
been trying these playoffs. I think he gives you effort.

(41:40):
I think he tries his hardest, but I just think
he has physical limitations that are gonna be really hard
to overcome against some of these matchups. Again, all the
guards are bigger than him, but even worse, if you're
getting a switch with the Siakam, I think him and
Turner are gonna abuse that. So I think this Pacers
offense is really gonna get it going in this series,
and there's a lot of defensive weak points that I

(42:00):
look at where I worry about the Knicks.

Speaker 2 (42:03):
I tend to agree. I think the Pacers offense is
gonna feast against the Knicks. They've been the number two
offense in these playoffs, and I underestimated dramatically the Knicks'
ability to defend the Celtics last series. They really really
overachieved what I foresaw. I do think that this Pacers offense, though,

(42:24):
has a much much much better process than Boston's, and
I think that where the Knicks were able to low
Boston as talented as they are into some of their
worst tendencies where they're really locking in on Isoball and
Kat and Brunson are defending off switch is better than
they expected, but they're still forcing the issue against these defenders.

(42:48):
The Pacers are a very different sort of offense and
that they are going to locate your defensive week point
and they're not going to force the issue. They're going
to create a great shot. They're going to put the
defense into rotation, they're going to keep the ball moving,
and they're gonna find the open man or the advantage
wherever that is on the floor, and that all starts
with Tyre's Halliburton. He is going to get great shots

(43:09):
for Indiana out of pick and roll, especially when Kat
is on the floor. I really really worry about this
matchup for Karl Anthony Towns. I think any big who
is questionable guarding in space, really, any questionable defensive center
is in for a hellish series when they go up
against the Pacers. You can't play Drop against Indiana out
of pick and roll. Obviously, we've known that. If you

(43:31):
need evidence of that, look at what happened to Brook
Lopez getting played off the floor very swiftly in that series.
So that's not an option for Cat. There's just too
much shooting from the Bigs in the pick and pop game.
Hallie's too comfortable against Drop as both the score and
a passer. It's not an option. Maybe they try switching
Cat again, which is what they did against Boston, and
they got better results doing that than I expected. But

(43:55):
I do think that Hallie is a good bit tougher
as a cover for Cat in space. Then the Jays
then Tatum and Brown were because of his shiftiness. That's
what's really gonna give any big trouble, but especially a
guy like Cat. It's those guards who can really shift
gears and then slam on the brakes and step back.
Hallie's just been cooking all sorts of bigs like that.

(44:17):
He did it a Brook, obviously, but he did it
to Jared Allen over and over again in that cav series,
who is a very legitimate big guarding in space a
hell of a lot better than Cat. He was still
food for Hallie, who was generating one point two points
p isolation in these playoffs. So he has been extremely
effective cooking bigs off switches. That worries me for catalot.

(44:38):
If that's the approach, maybe they just try Cat playing
up at the level. But whenever you put two on
the ball in any way against Halle, that's extremely dangerous.
He's gonna make all the right reads. He has the
size in the vision to make passes against pressure out
of pick and roll, and Indiana's gonna find the open man.
So he makes the initial pass and then they're gonna swing.

(45:00):
They're going to take advantage of a four on three,
or maybe he just makes a perfect skip pass and
he kills you immediately with the first read. I just
don't think there's anything resembling a decent answer for the
Knicks in terms of what you do with Kat on
the defensive end. And then Brunson is the other liability
who you look at and expect Indiana to really attack.
I do feel better comparatively about Brunson's ability to hold up,

(45:22):
Like if they bring Brunson into the action, if they
have his man screen for Halliburton, I think you just
live with the switch. And I don't feel terrible about
Brunson's ability to guard Hallie out in space, so I
think you can live with that. The bigger concern would
be what you mentioned, like what if they start having
Seakam running inverted pick and roll targeting Brunson. Do they

(45:44):
put two on the ball and then Siakam finds Nemhard
who's popping and he's open for three. If they switch
Brunson onto Siakam, I think that's a problematic matchup. Brunson
did better than I would have expected against both Tatum
and Brown last series, and Brunson does have strength defensive,
He's got a low center of gravity and he does fight.

(46:05):
But Siakam is really an expert mismatch attacker. He is
so comfortable bullying guards out of the post, and I
think he's pretty damn effective doing so. So I don't
think that Brunson's as glaring a problem this matchup his Cat,
but I do still think he's a defensive weak point
that Indiana can attack. And of course I'm talking about
what do they do with these guys out of pick
and roll defensively, Indiana is also just going to hunt

(46:28):
those transition cross matches and try to get Cat guarding
a guard out in space in the full court, try
and get Siakam quickly ceiling Brunson down court, because that's
what they do better than anybody else. They run, and
they don't play against set defenses, and so you just
have to scramble and you may end up in a
matchup that you, as the defense, really don't like. Indiana

(46:49):
is going to generate more of those chances than anybody else.
So I just really don't see New York slowing down
Indiana's offense at all. Indiana is leading the playoffs in
assist per game by farthering thirty assists per game. They're
number one in field goal percentage, They're number one and
three point percentage. They're a ninety fourth percentile transition offense,
they're an eighty eighth percentile half court offense. And again

(47:10):
New York overachieved my expectations against Boston, but it's a
very different matchup. That is a team that is not
nearly as smart offensively as Indiana. They're very talented, but
you are not going to be able to lull the
smartest collective offense in basketball, which I do think Indiana
is into settling for subpar shots. They're gonna get great looks.

(47:31):
They're gonna find your weak points over and over again.
And I just think offense is gonna come easier for
them in this series than it is for New York.
I do too.

Speaker 1 (47:39):
I mean, I think the recipe for New York winning
is winning in the physicality departments and having the viability
of those double big lineups. Like I think the requisite
is that they're achieved to be the prerequisite for them
winning is like I think Cad and Robinson have to
be effective. To me, Kad is the X factor in
this series of offensively and defensively for the Knicks. Everything

(48:03):
that we mentioned about just defending in space and being
able to be on the floor also not fouling as
well too. You just need Kat out there on the floor.
But he dominated offensively, and that's where I could see
Kat having a big impact. In the regular season. He
gave Indiana thirty twelve and two on seventy percent true shooting.
To me, Kat's gonna be the guy that's gonna break

(48:25):
this open. He would convincingly outplay Pascal Siakam in this series,
say Brunton and Haliburton play to a wash in terms
of overall impact points and playmaking. Kat could be the
guy that could convincingly outplay Siakam, but also could provide
a role defensively, you know, as an impactful post defender
on those guys, as a really impactful rebounder. But Kat's

(48:46):
got to be out there first and foremost, and he
just can't get attacked defensively, because again, that's just where
I worry about the Knicks. But I could see their
offense outperforming Indiana in a few games, just with the
ceiling that some of these guys have the level that
I know Bridges can reach, the level that I know
Kat can reach. Are they gonna do it consistently enough

(49:06):
to beat Indiana? That's the real question. Also, I think
we're gonna have to see them win a couple of
games like they did against Boston Carson, where they're lingering
around all game. They just got to hang through three
quarters and then right in the fourth Brunston and Kat
turn it up a notch and steal it in the clutch.
But to me, it's easier said than done. And I
I really do see the Knicks getting worn down. Man.

(49:28):
I think it's gonna be hard on their bodies and
hard on this rotation keeping up with Indiana. And I
just think their guys are gonna be fresher and they're
gonna be able to fly up and down the court.
And I think that's a really tall task to ask
on this NIXT team that's only seven deep, it has
two bigs that I think can get exploited. It's just
a lot to ask. I think for New York, Man.

Speaker 2 (49:49):
It definitely is in the formula that you mentioned for
New York in Games one and two versus Boston. First
of all, that required some crazy meltdowns from the room,
like truly Desi for his basketball. I just think that
Indiana is so much more consistent offensively. Some of the
looks from three that you didn't like from Boston that
they were settling for. Indiana is not going to take

(50:10):
those looks like truly. I think that they are the
best offense in basketball at consistently creating a great shot quality,
and that is a collective effort. And for the Knicks,
they are a very good offense, but it does come
a little harder for them. I do think that they
are more dependent on a couple guys specifically. I do
think that they play a couple more questionable offensive players

(50:33):
than the Pacers do, where you feel pretty good about
everybody in their role offensively. I do think that Jayalen
Brunson will get his in this series. I think that
his floor as a scorer is so so high, that's
why we've seen it. He's basically a thirty point per
game scorer across three postseasons with the Knicks. His ability
to chisel his way into the paint, his shot making

(50:53):
in the intermediate area, his ability to get to the
line consistently, and then he has the pull up three
point shooting. He just has such a complete scoring arsenal,
and he's so difficult to deal with on an island.
He's so difficult to deal with out of pick and roll.
But I do think in this series, although he's going
to get his in terms of volume, for sure, he's
going to have to work. And that's been the theme
against Detroit with a sar as a really tough matchup.

(51:16):
But Dennis Shrewder he had to work last series with
Drew Holliday and Derek White and Jaylen Brown, all those
guys made him work. So Brunson's efficiency, you know, he's
fifty six percent true shooting. It's not bad when you
consider he's a small guard carrying the load that he is.
In these playoffs, he's been very impressive overall, but that's
still not super efficient offense. And those points again, they

(51:37):
take him working. It's going to be not a struggle
but a battle. It's not going to come easy to him.
And I do think that Indiana's perimeter defense is quite good.
I think that Aaron Nesmith should be his primary matchup.
We saw in the playoffs last year. He is just
a much better option on Brunson than Nemhard in my opinion,
because even though Nemhard is feisty and he applies it

(52:00):
ton of pressure, it just comes down to the strength
and size advantage that Nie Smith has. That's where I
really like him, because Brunson is so physical. I mean,
he's one of the most physical and one of the
strongest guards in basketball, and in the playoffs, he's able
to use that strength to create separation, to get a bump,
and Nie Smith is just much better equipped to counter that.
And I generally just like guys who are a little

(52:20):
bigger and who have an advantage in that way in
terms of size dealing with Brunson. But he's gonna deal
with both of them a lot. I think that he's
gonna be guarded by both of them a good bit.
I think that the Pacers will probably mix up the
looks some. And then he's also gonna get some TJ McConnell, Like,
he's gonna get a lot of dudes who are pressuring
full court, who are good perimeter defenders, who are crazy

(52:41):
well conditioned, and he's crazy well conditioned too, but they're
just not gonna let up. They're not gonna relent. It's
not an easy perimeter defense to go up against. And
then Miles Turner has also really been protecting that rim
at a high level. So I would say this is
an easier matchup for Brunson than the last two series
because those were two teams that were very well equipped
to defend him. But this is still a team that

(53:03):
is well equipped to defend him, and it's a defense
that I think has been very underrated overall, and that's
a big part of their story in these playoffs. Yes,
their offense is what makes them special, but defending at
a very very solid, above average level has been a
big part of the getting them here as well. For Kat,
I particularly look at his shooting as being crucial in

(53:23):
this matchup, because I think we're gonna see Miles Turner
matched up with Kat a lot. We've seen other teams
try the strategy of putting their center on Josh Hart
because they're much more comfortable roaming off of him, because
obviously Kat is such a special shooter, and I think
that that's a good strategy when you have the personnel
for it. I just don't think that Indiana has the
size to do that, because then you scale that down,

(53:46):
you're putting siakam Now on Cat. I like that matchup
a good bit more for Cat in terms of his
ability to play bullyball, but even more problematic you're like, Okay, now,
who are we putting on Ojan Andobi? Like, I just
think it's gonna be Turner on Kat in this matchup,
and I don't love Kat trying to go at Turner
off of post ups and isolations. I think that Miles

(54:08):
Turner can hold his own decently well there. I generally
don't love Kat just going against another seven footer in
those spots. I like him more when he has an advantage.
But where Kat really can do damage is pulling Turner
out into space, limiting his impact as a rim protector.
That's where I want to see the three point volume
go up from Cat, because so much of these playoffs

(54:28):
for him have been about attacking mismatches. If it's okay,
you're putting Tobias Harris on me, can I punish you
for doing that? If it's okay, Drew Hollidays on me,
can I punish you for doing that? This is a
different matchup. This is where I think it does become
more about his three point shot, which is his most
special trade offensively. I want to see more than five
to three attempts per game from Kat. I think that's

(54:48):
really where he has potential to be at his best
in this series.

Speaker 1 (54:52):
Yeah, I think spacing the floor and dragging Turner out
one I think is just good because that's where he's
least impact. He's away from the rim too. That should
maybe open up some cuts on the back end if
he's doing that. But also I think it is matchup dependent,
Like if he's got Siakam on him, you were talking
about Tobias, I want him going over a guy like
Sika on the post. I want him trying to get

(55:14):
to those layups because that's what it's frustrating about Towns
is it's like, man, when he does go back to
the basket and he gets close to the rim, he's
really effective. And not only is he effective when he's
going up against these smaller defenders, he's also really good
at getting extra opportunities with and one because and one's
because he's routinely getting fouled by the smaller defenders there.

(55:37):
That's the biggest key to me. And he was great
against the Pacers in the regular season, but the consistency
because last series I was frustrated. Man. I have had
a love hate relationship with Karl Anthony Towns for as
long as I can remember. I really didn't like Kat
for the longest time. Way more I've come around on

(55:57):
Cat a lot more. To me, he it has less
to do with I don't really care as much about
the personality things. To me, it's the consistency of his
play is what I'm is really frustrating. I need to
have less of these high foul games where you're in
foul trouble early. I need to have less of these
ten point performances where I don't feel your impact for

(56:18):
three quarters of the game. I need consistent end to
end impact from Karl Anthony Towns. That's the biggest key
to the Knicks for me in this series. It needs
to be loud. I need twenty five points efficiently, man
like I need. I need to feel Kat out there
every single game or I don't think the Knicks are
going to win this series.

Speaker 2 (56:38):
I think both Brunson and Kat have to be great,
because while I think that Indiana has the better collective offense,
I think that they are the better team in terms
of identifying advantages, moving the ball, trusting everybody to be
able to finish plays efficiently. What New York has is
a really great offensive duo, and they have two guys
who have the ability to take over individually and give

(57:01):
you sixty something combined points in a game. I think
that they need a good bit of that if they
do want to win this series. And I do agree
that that does fall on Cat, and Cat's been really
good out of the post in these playoffs. I always
talk about over the years how much I prefer it
when you get a cat back to the basket post

(57:21):
up possession compared to a cat face up isolation or
any cat isolation that starts out from the perimeter. But
once again, Man, in He's playoffs, he's averaging one point
oh six points per post up. That's an eighty ninth
percentile number. He's averaging zero point eight four points per isolation,
that's a thirty third percentile.

Speaker 1 (57:37):
I mean, he just he struggles gathering and like going
through the lane to the basket. But when he simplifies
it and just spins off the guy and puts the
shot up, he makes it just gets to it's effortless,
just three dribble.

Speaker 2 (57:51):
Back down, get to the hook shot. He's so good
at that. And we'll see how much of that he
gets to do in this series. But I do think
it's trickier against Turner. I'm not saying he can't go
out him in that matchup, but I don't want him
forcing the issue in that matchup. I do think overall,
as I've said, offense isn't gonna come as easy to
the next I do think that because they play at

(58:12):
such a slower pace, they don't get nearly the same
transition opportunities that Indiana does, which are so efficient. They
are more dependent on the tough one on one shot
making from their stars. I do worry this could be
a tricky series for like a mckel bridges, He's always
going to be very dependent on just what level is
he at as a jump shooter and so off the catch,
He's gonna have his opportunities, and maybe he shoots the

(58:33):
ball really well, but he is going to be dealing
with as his primary matchup whoever of Nemhard or Nias
Smith isn't on Brunson, and those are two really good
perimeter defenders who can pressure the ball, who I do
think can disturb his handle a little bit, and who
can force him to settle for a tougher shot Diet,
So I think he's probably gonna have a pretty erratic series.

(58:54):
I did want to ask you about the Double Big
look for the Knicks. I know that you've already touched
on that, and you've touched on the concerns and the
pros that you see for them by going to it.
How much do you think they go to it? Is
it like a trial thing where let's see ten minutes
in game one, how does it go when we just
proceed from there?

Speaker 1 (59:11):
Yeah, I think it is a trial thing, and maybe
you just end up staggering if it doesn't work. Maybe
you just end up staggering Kat and Robinson's minutes to
where like one of them is always on the floor
and they just overlap briefly, just because I don't like
their frontcore depth a ton when you go beyond that.
But I think you try it because while I think

(59:32):
it has its drawbacks, it also has things that I
think really work in New York's favor, primarily the rebounding
aspect of the Double Big lineup. It could be the
biggest advantage that they have in this series because I
thought the games that Boston did win and dominate, they
did an excellent job at creating extra opportunities and beating
Indiana on the glass and It is where I see

(59:52):
a Knicks advantage, Like they're just bigger and stronger and
more physical than Indiana, and they've got more guys that
I like as rebounders. Josh Hart is gonna have a
significant impact on the glass and in those lineups with
Kat and Robinson, if they are defending in space, if
they are getting up down on the floor in transition,
I think they could really win the possession battle in

(01:00:12):
a big way. And that is a huge component I
think to the Knicks winning this series.

Speaker 2 (01:00:18):
I totally agree. I think that the couple areas in
which the Knicks would have to be great to win
this series. I mentioned the two stars being consistently awesome
in Brunson and Kat. The other one is just their
ability to generate extra possessions. I mean that is where
the double big look has been so effective. They are
grabbing thirty eight percent of available offensive rebounds in these

(01:00:42):
playoffs when they have Towns and Robinson out there together.
They're also grabbing eighty percent of defensive rebounds. So they're
just dominating the glass on both sides of the ball. Unsurprisingly,
because Mitchell Robinson is a top two offensive rebounder in
basketball and also defensively, those looks have been really good.
Most of that was in the Boston Sei. I do
worry a little more about having two slower footed bigs

(01:01:04):
out there. Mitchkin garden space certainly better than cat can,
but really it's transition defense against a team that plays
so fast. When you have two true centers on the floor,
that's a concern. And also, just like some of the
conditioning of it, wearing them down, two centers out there
having to play at such a breakneck pace, that is
a concern. But you have to at least try it

(01:01:25):
because Mitch has been so good in his minutes, The
double big look has been so effective, and Indiana's not
a good rebounding team. There's not Miles turn is a
bad rebounding five. So if you can be generating ten
extra possessions per game compared to what Indiana is getting,
that's a way that you can cancel out to some
extent the advantage that they have, where yeah, they're getting

(01:01:45):
more easy points in transition, but we're just getting way
more second chances, and I do think that the Knicks
will get more second chances for sure. Maybe the key
difference in this series, though, doesn't necessarily come down to
either side of the ball. Specifically, it just comes down
to the combined impact of depth and pace in Indiana's favor.

(01:02:10):
This is a New York team that only wants to
play seven guys. This is a New York team that
is going to play their starters forty plus minutes consistently.
And it's really impressive that they do that. Those guys
all compete, and obviously they've gotten to the conference finals
with that formula. Even though if you look at everybody
else who's advanced, it's Minnesota with their elite depth. It's okay,
see with their elite depth. It's Indiana with their elite depth.

(01:02:31):
The Knicks have been able to overcome not having that
deep bench. But nobody is better built to exploit a
depth advantage than the Pacers are, because they are going
to run and run you. They are going to pick
up full court defensively, they are going to play crazy
fast offensively, they are going to go ten deep. The
Knicks want to play slow. They're only going to play

(01:02:52):
their seven guys. But I think Indiana is going to
be able to dictate the pace for the most part
in this series. And I think that that advantage that
they have there builds over a game and it builds
over a series where they just wear you down, and
particularly the Knicks, I do think they're gonna be able
to wear down. They just have energizer bunnies man, and

(01:03:13):
on both sides of the ball, they really set that
tone where they're trying to speed you up and they're
going fast offensively, and I don't think they'll necessarily be
able to speed brunting up. And I think his endurance
as a score is one of his most impressive traits.
But he's just gonna be a grind. It's gonna be
a grind, and it's gonna be a grind for all
of the Knicks. And I think it's just gonna be
a little bit more breezy and fun for the Pacers

(01:03:35):
who are coming in for their shifts and they're moving
the ball and they're finding the defensive weak points and
they're just flying around the court and they're playing so
fast and they're bringing so much energy. So I am
gonna take pacers and six. I think that both of
these defenses are solid, and I don't think either one
can necessarily give the other offense too much trouble but

(01:03:57):
I think Indiana's defense is more complete, and I don't
think that they have the sort of weak points that
the Knicks do, especially with like Halle defending as capably
as he has been in these playoffs and this season overall.
And I think the Pacers offense is more dynamic. So
I think what the Knicks did last years was very impressive,
but again it required some malfunctioning on Boston's part and

(01:04:18):
some real clutch heroics. I think that that's just a
much more difficult formula to replicate against an Indiana team
that I do think is so consistent.

Speaker 1 (01:04:26):
Yeah, that ultimately is the difference to me too, as
the depth advantage, I think that the Knicks are gonna
get worn down and it's a lot. It's a lot
on the play to Robinson in Towns and yeah, I
just trust indianimal. I think they're gonna get so many
easy points on the fast break and in transition, and
I think that's gonna be so hard for the Knicks
to overcome. It's just gonna stack and it's gonna be

(01:04:47):
so easy for them. Essentially, I think the Knicks are
gonna have to work harder for their buckets and that's
gonna and that's gonna accumulate, as you said, over the series,
and that's why the Pacers are gonna win. To me,
so I'm gonna take the Pacer in six. I say
they get it done on their home floor.

Speaker 2 (01:05:03):
It's so interesting, man, because it's always been like an
NBA doctrine that you can't necessarily translate the level of
success that you have in the full court to the
playoffs because the game is gonna slow down, you're not
gonna have as many transition opportunities. And I do think
that there's truth to that. I actually do still very

(01:05:23):
adamantly believe that bad half court offenses that only rely
on their transition offense can't win in the playoffs. I
think that there are a number of examples of that
in recent years. I always point to the Grizzlies of
twenty twenty two and twenty twenty three with jaw Houston
this year, they weren't so reliant on transition as much
as they were their offensive reminding, but that was a

(01:05:45):
bad half court offense. Like you have to be a
good half court offense to win. But the idea that
being a great transition offense is not still a huge advantage.
That's just not true. Like, if you look at the
two teams that are just gonna consistently get the most
easy points baked into every game, it's the two teams
that get out and transition the most. That's the thunder
who are averaging twenty eight transition points per game in

(01:06:06):
these playoffs, that's the most of anybody. And then the
Pacers are averaging twenty three transition points. That's the second most.
That does give you a floor. And in today's game, man, like,
you can absolutely still play at a fast pace in
the playoffs, and you can be very successful doing so,
and you can set the tone with your defense to
get transition opportunities offensively. Transition offense is always very valuable.

(01:06:28):
You just need more than that as well. And I
think that's something that sometimes people can kind of miscontrue
and misunderstand. I also think some people still misunderstand Tyre's
Haliburton man. And I see people saying like, oh, the
Pacers can't win this series, the Pacers can't get to
the finals, the Pacers can't win at all. They don't
have a true number one, And I just think that's
kind of ridiculous because If you think that Tyre's Halliburton

(01:06:49):
doesn't have number one offensive impact, I just don't know
what you're watching. Like I've talked about it so many times,
but he's the best decision maker in basketball. He is
the most selfless player in basketball, leveraging his scoring threat
to create great shots for teammates. He's the best at
pushing pace, and he is a really good score very efficient.
He's just not always going to do crazy. But he

(01:07:10):
dictates so much, doesn't turn the ball over like he's
an offensive genius. He's an offensive maestro. And basketball is
a team sport, man, and the Pacers have the best offense,
So what does it matter if they have a quote
unquote number one even though I think that they do
in terms of impact in Tyre's Haliburton. But okay, they
don't have a thirty point per game score. What does

(01:07:32):
that matter when they create better offensive results than you
over and over again. I just think that that's a
very silly critician number.

Speaker 1 (01:07:40):
The number the numbers is not high enough, Carson.

Speaker 2 (01:07:43):
The number of points per game, the Tyres Haliburton.

Speaker 1 (01:07:45):
Scores, there's not high enough.

Speaker 2 (01:07:47):
I'm sorry to hear that. Man Brunson is going to
score more points per game, that's for sure. I don't
think that Brunson is better than Hallie, but I think
it's pretty close. And I definitely think it's a lot
closer than a lot of people would alleged you to
believe before these playoffs. I'm very excited for both of
these series. Logan, and I gotta say, big picture, I
just love that these are our conference finals. This feels
like a very appropriate representation of basketball in twenty twenty five,

(01:08:12):
where this is gonna be the seventh straight year that
we have a new champion. This is the age of parody.
And you look at these four teams, three of them
are from smaller markets. Minnesota is not a tiny market,
but Indiana and Oklahoma City are in Minnesota is still
again a smaller market, especially when you think about the
teams that have historically contended in the NBA. None of
these franchises have won a title since the nineteen seventies.

(01:08:35):
Two of them have never won at all, in Indiana
and Minnesota. Oklahoma City they've never won since they've been
in Oklahoma City. Obviously it was with the Sonics in
nineteen seventy nine. Nicks haven't won in more than fifty years.
So I think it's very fun from that perspective that
we're seeing new teams represented at the top of the sport,
and all of these teams represent the ascension of this

(01:08:58):
younger generation. Anthony Verards is twenty three, he's leaving the Timberwolves.
Halley's twenty five, he's leading the Pacers. SGA's twenty six,
he's leaving the Thunder. Obviously their entire team is very young.
Jalen Brunson even is twenty eight. Like, it's just this
awesome culmination of the age of parody and the young
generation taking over, and it's all wrapped up and it's

(01:09:19):
embodied by these four teams, and I think it's just great. Man.
I'm very very much looking forward to this as am.

Speaker 1 (01:09:25):
I just I just think the sports in a great
place right now.

Speaker 2 (01:09:28):
Sports in a great place. It's the age of parody.
Until the Oklahoma City Thunder wins six titles in eight years,
that's what's coming.

Speaker 1 (01:09:35):
Oh, the Spurs are coming, man, I don't know Wemby's
Wemby's gonna come up.

Speaker 2 (01:09:39):
No, the Spurs are coming for sure. I don't actually
think the Thunder are gonna win six titles in eight years.
But I do think they'll win at.

Speaker 1 (01:09:44):
Least you count it out. I mean, I think that
the Thunder. I mean, I know you've been saying they're
gonna be a dynasty for the longest, but I agree
with that. I think they're gonna get multiple.

Speaker 2 (01:09:52):
Yeah, it's very difficult to replicate dominant team results in
today's NBA, but the Thunder are just in a completely
different position than everybody else has been since the Warriors
started their dynasty. To do so, I talked about this
a lot, but I was just thinking about it because like, yeah,
it is the age of parody. But then there's one
team that has a very clear opportunity to just shatter

(01:10:15):
that age of parity and just keep getting better and
keep adding talent. And they have so many assets, and
they already won sixty eight games and are the title
favorite at this point. Logan, we'll be back here tomorrow night.
I can't wait to talk some basketball. I do think
it's insane that the Thunder only get one day of
rest while the Pacers and Knicks get plenty of days

(01:10:36):
of rest, But hey, that's the NBA, buddy, It's where
amazing happens. We will be back here and we hope
you guys join us real quick before we go. Just
so you guys know, nerd Session is no longer with
the volume. We love the volume. I still work with
the Volume, but we are no longer under the company umbrella.
That doesn't really affect anything for you guys, but we
are going to try to figure out our own merch setup.

(01:10:57):
So we're gonna work on that. So we ask you
guys to be paid with us and then hopefully we
can get a whole good situation going there. And uh,
we'll see what's next. So what's next for us now,
Logan is a podcast tomorrow and a podcast the day
after that, and a podcast the day after that and
a podcast the day after that. And if I'm not mistaken, Logan,
you're gonna make the racist catch the fade again. You're
gonna fight racism with my fist.

Speaker 1 (01:11:17):
I had to fight back against some of your unfounded allegations. Man.

Speaker 2 (01:11:23):
Well, the things that you say in private life to
me can be shocking. I'm not gonna deny that, but
at the end of the day, you're a good guy.

Speaker 1 (01:11:31):
Thanks bro. I guess I.

Speaker 2 (01:11:32):
Mean you want to make racist catch the fade again.

Speaker 1 (01:11:34):
That's you fighting them. I'm fighting them all in twenty
twenty five. Pull up to fight.

Speaker 2 (01:11:39):
Them on site. Pull up logan address Logan, please give
your home address and social security number.

Speaker 1 (01:11:45):
I give you my bank card that.

Speaker 2 (01:11:47):
Also works anyway for the racist to find you.

Speaker 1 (01:11:54):
I'm obliterating them on site with my laser vision.

Speaker 2 (01:11:57):
Do you have that? Did you unlock that ability?

Speaker 1 (01:12:00):
I'm just it's a new perk unlocked.

Speaker 2 (01:12:03):
Damn you tough as Oh, thanks bro, you are tough
as hell. Thank you guys for sitting here and watching
or listening to this episode.

Speaker 1 (01:12:13):
We're gonna be back again. We're gonna be back again
tomorrow though with another YAF sash with Conference finals basketball Carson. Then,
if I'm not mistaken, Os Reed.

Speaker 2 (01:12:22):
Is gonna plays Reed, NOAs Reed is gonna play Shake,
Gill Zack Xander is gonna play chat Holdgren is gonna
play Anthony Edwards is gonna play Oh. It's gonna be
a whole lot of fun. We do hope that you
guys are with us for that, and as always, you
can find all of our full episodes on our YouTube channel.
You can join us for our postgame live streams, or
you can watch them back after the fact. You can
listen to all of our full episodes across all audio platforms,

(01:12:45):
and you can follow us across social media TikTok and
Instagram at nerd sach, Twitter at nerd underscore sesch to
see clip from the show, graphics from the show, and
of course you can see all of our trivia content
there and you can join our discord if you want.
That is linked at the link tree that is across
our social media bios. So with that, as always, I've
been Carson Braber

Speaker 1 (01:13:04):
I've been Logan Camden and this was nerd Side

All Episodes

Nerd Sesh - Conference Finals Predictions: Will OKC BEST Wolves, Pacers or Knicks to Finals?

Episode Transcript

Hosts And Creators

Logan Camden

Carson Breber

.css-15opob5{left:0;position:absolute;top:0.8rem;} All Episodes

.css-14f5ked{margin:0;word-break:break-word;display:-webkit-box;-webkit-box-orient:vertical;box-orient:vertical;-webkit-line-clamp:2;overflow:hidden;}Nerd Sesh - Conference Finals Predictions: Will OKC BEST Wolves, Pacers or Knicks to Finals?

Episode Transcript

Hosts And Creators

.css-r6mb8g{margin:0;word-break:break-word;display:-webkit-box;-webkit-box-orient:vertical;box-orient:vertical;-webkit-line-clamp:1;overflow:hidden;}Logan Camden

Carson Breber

All Episodes

Nerd Sesh - Conference Finals Predictions: Will OKC BEST Wolves, Pacers or Knicks to Finals?

Logan Camden