March 22, 2020 • 33 mins
As the trillion dollar Coronavirus economic stimulus bill makes its way through Congress, it’s important to discuss how the U.S. economy should be supported. Newt’s guests are Steve Moore and Charles Payne.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Hi, This is new because of the coronavirus. I am
currently staying at home in Rome, where my wife serves
as the United States ambassador to the Holy See. She's
leading the embassy and dealing with all the different changes
being brought about by the pandemic. To bring you this
episode this week, I'm recording from my home, so you
may notice a difference in audio quality. We have twenty
(00:23):
six and a half million small businesses in this country.
We talk ourselves into a situation that we don't have
to be in, that we do not have to go
into a recession, and that if there is some short
term pain, that's exactly what it should be a short
term On this episode of News World, the coronavirus or
COVID nineteen is spreading rapidly in the United States and
(00:46):
around the world, and it's having a major impact on
our global economy. The stock market has experienced its biggest
losses in history. As bars, restaurants, gyms, and other places
where we socially gather close, Many hourly workers are losing
their jobs. The travel business, including airlines and hotels, are
(01:06):
facing furloughs and layouts. Many small businesses are being impacted.
We are all bracing for the economic impact the coronavirus
may have on all of us. But what is the
right economic policy we should be pursuing at this time.
Do we send thousand dollars checks to everyone who needs
the money, or to incentivize the economy with tax measures
(01:29):
that will boost the businesses most significantly impacted so they
can preserve their workforce. As the trillion dollar coronavirus economic
bailout makes its way through Congress, I think it's important
to discuss how the US economy should be supported and
pleased to welcome my guests, Steve Moore distinguish visiting fellow
(01:50):
for the Project for Economic Growth at the Heritage Foundation
and Charles Paint, host of Making Money with Charles Paint
on the Fox to Business Network. We're doing such damage
(02:13):
to the economy as a function of our public health
measures that I wanted to have somebody who I've worked
with for years and who I have enormous respect for
share with us his view. Certainly one of the people
who best understands the Reagan Revolution, the rise of supply
side economics, and why Trump's policies for three years were
(02:33):
so effective. And that's doctor Steve Moore to who's at
Heritage and who has been very close to the White House. Steve,
I'd really love for you to share with us if
you were in the president's shoes and you had the
challenges we currently have, what would your recommendations do. But
let's start with the most important point, which is this
(02:54):
president really has rebuilt the American economy an incredible way
over the last three years, and this gives us a
good starting point. You go back just three weeks ago,
we had that Job's report with three hundred and fifty
thousand new jobs, including the revisions from previous months. The
economy was growing at three to three and a half percent,
(03:14):
something that had never happened in eight years under Obama.
We had the lowest unemployment rate three and a half percent,
that we've got in our lifetime. So we start this
virus situation with an economy, thank goodness, that is strong
to begin with, but there is going to be a
heavy toll and it already is being felt around the country.
I'm in washingtonc right now. Most of the streets of
(03:34):
Washington are pretty vacant right now. My son lives in
San Francisco. San Francisco is in a total lockdown. It
may be very similar to your situation there in Italy.
Manhattan is the same way. So this is going to
be a heavy, heavy toll on the economy. There's just
no question about it. We just have to hope that
this doesn't last more than six to eight weeks. Now,
(03:55):
what would I do if I were the president? The
single most important thing he did is that he down
travel from China. That was the single most important public
health measure. Now, the first thing I would do, and
the President is doing this. We have twenty six and
a half million small businesses in this country. The vast,
vast majority of them were very healthy going into this.
(04:17):
We don't want those companies to go bankrupt because as
soon as this is over, we want them to be
able to spring back to life. And so what the
President has done is said, look, if you can't get
a loan from a bank, we're going to open up
the government credit for you so that you can get
a six month loan at maybe one percent interest to
make sure you don't have to go bankrupt or have
a fighter sale on your assets. We also want to
(04:40):
make sure that these companies can meet their payrolls and
not have to lay off all of their employees. If
you do that, then as soon as this is over,
instead of companies that are bankrupt, you have companies that
can get going again and get our economy back to normally.
The second thing that you need to do is make
sure that the steps that you take to provide temporary
help to people are not going to impede the economy
(05:02):
once we come out of this. Almost everything Nancy Pelosi
wants to do would actually weaken the economy. Just let
me give you one example. It's amazing. She wants to
require every business in America to provide paid leave to
their employees. Now, now, where the businesses are going to
get the money to do that. I mean, it's just
a really bad policy to require that of businesses. We
(05:24):
shouldn't be doing welfare programs. I don't have a big
problem with the one thousand dollars payments right now, just
to give people some cash. I like the idea of
suspending the payroll tax for every business in America and
every worker in America. That's one hundred and sixty million
Americans which would get a tax cut, and twenty seven
million small businesses that are facing a financial crunch. Would
(05:46):
get a seven percent reduction on their payroll costs. I
love that idea. Trump likes it. Let's hope that he
does it. What's the advantage of that over just continuing
to send more money after the first thousand dollars? Is that?
Will you sort of stop? How do you see this
playing out? If the government gives us somebody a thousand dollars,
new it has to take a thousand dollars away from
(06:08):
someone else, Right, If there's no sense thing, it's pretty money.
The government can only give money to someone if it
takes money from somebody who is productive in the economy.
This is a redistribution program away from people are producing
to people who, in many cases are not producing. That's
not a way to grow the economy. Now, I'm not
saying we shouldn't do it as a kind of humanitarian,
(06:29):
compassionate policy to make sure people don't go hungry and
are financially strapped, but it should be a short term policy.
If you eliminate the payroll tax, you're giving incentives for
businesses to hire workers, especially when we come out of
the recession, and you give workers an incentive to work more. Right,
because you're giving every worker essentially a seven and a
half percent raise by taking less money out of their paycheck,
(06:52):
and you're reducing the payroll costs of employers, so it
has positive incentive effects unlike many of these other welfare programs.
Somebody is talking about the idea of going to one
hundred percent expensing on a permanent basis to encourage businesses
to dramatically modernize and also to give them the resources
to pull their step back from China. Do you have
(07:14):
any feel personally on the whole issue of expensing and
the presence fantastic tax cut that we did in two seventeen.
We basically provided businesses with expensing and that has been
a boon to the economy, There's no question. So I
would love to see that made permanent. Absolutely, that would
be a good policy. I would like to see a
reduction in the capital gain section. The one mistake we
(07:35):
made in our tax bill because we didn't have the
votes to do it, was to cut the tax on
capital gains, which is a tax on investment. We're going
to need more investment. I like any policy that provides
positive incentives, and economics is all about incentives. How do
you incentivize businesses to hire. How do you incentivize businesses
to invest, how do you incentivize people to work? Yes,
(07:56):
tax reductions can have a very positive impact. If we
could get the Treasury to move to fifty one hundred
year bonds at the current extraordinarily low interest rate, we
would liberate an out year so much money when the
interest rates naturally go up as the economy recovers. If
you could lock in fifty one hundred year bonds a
(08:18):
one and a half or two percent, and given that
the world is as a natural flight to safety, and
in the end that means to the United States, I
would think the market would absorb those bonds pretty rapidly. Well,
there is exactly right. I mean, this is the most
amazing time. I never thought i'd see a time in
my lifetime when you would see a ten year Treasury
(08:42):
bill is at I think point eight and the thirty
year treasury is a little over one percent. And if
you did a fifty year bond, you might be able
to lock in an interest rate and maybe one and
a quarter percent. That way, you're protecting yourself because look,
the federal government is twenty trillion dollars in debt. Protecting
yourself from the risk of interest rates going way up
(09:03):
in the future. I don't know how much they're going
to go up, but I guarantee you they're going to
go up in the next two, five, ten, fifteen years.
And you're locking in those low rates. You're proposing, mister speaker,
is to refinance the debt, and absolutely we should, just
like every homeowner is refinancing their mortgage. And it's a
great opportunity, and you're exactly right. I've calculated the savings
(09:25):
at about three trillion dollars over the next twenty five years,
three trillion dollars, and this is a good way to
finance these short term measures that we have to take
to make sure that this recession doesn't turn into a depression. Well,
the way is there any way to create a window
where people who have student debt could also roll that
(09:46):
over into this lower interest because I think the average
student is at four or five percent. That saves them
over their lifetime a fair amount of money. The reason
we have a student debt crisis is because, in my opinion,
a single east scam in America, and it's been going
on for thirty years, is how much our colleges and
universities are charging our families. It is outrageous. Every college
(10:08):
and university should be able to cut their tuition by
five or ten thousand dollars if they were efficient. And
the reason that we have these escalating tuition costs. If
you're a middle class family and you've got two kids
in college, you're talking about an expensive maybe one hundred
thousand dollars a year. I mean, how our families going
to pay for that? But you're right for now, we
should certainly try to refinance the student debt as well,
(10:30):
but we have to drive tuition costs about next what
Americans can do about their financial well being during the
spread of the coronavirus. And I think the question and
(11:00):
we need to be asking, is where do you draw
a line? I mean, how much economic damage aren't we
willing to tolerate to save thirty or forty eight thousand lives.
We don't even know how many lives might be jeopardized
by this. I mean, right now, as we speak, there
are fewer than fifty gusts from the coronavirus. That's fewer
people that die from a drug overdose. Is every day,
if we take a five trillion dollars hit to our
(11:23):
US economy. Think of the human toll that that will take.
I don't know the answer to this. I'm just kind
of asking the question. We can't continue for eight to
ten weeks with an American economy that's shut down. There
will be chaos, there will be suicides, there will be
people in the streets in deprivation. The consequence of shutting
(11:43):
it down our economy are enormous, like nothing we've ever
seen before. I think that's right. I think that they
have to pivot and begin to figure out a controlled
way to begin reopening things. Yes, yes, totally agree with you.
If you can't have people congregating, it's going to be
very difficult for our economy as this goes on week
(12:04):
after week. The president has one thousand dollars program right
now that they're going to sound out checks. Okay, well,
what are you going to do three weeks from now?
I guess on the people another thousand dollars. I mean,
at some point, you do run out of money. In
South Korea and you walked into a hotel, they checked
your temperature. They would record your temperature. They actually allowed
a very high level of individual mobility, but it was
(12:25):
a continuously checked mobility. It's one thing to have a
sort of shock effect for a few days. It doesn't
work if you're trying to do this for two or
three or four months. I would argue that our national
security and our national health are the single most important things.
And the fact that we're spending five trillion dollars it's
(12:47):
been a month out we still don't have a good
screen and task for this virus is outrageous. And we
spend billions and billions of dollars at the centers for
disease control and on healthcare. We spent over a choice
of dollars on government healthcare programs. The government has led
us dound big time here, and we got to figure
out how to fix this. I think the thing to
(13:08):
recognize is this is like the fifth virus that cyclically
comes out of animals, and we ought to have a
routine expectation of yes, it will happen. This is how
we'll respond, what the government should be doing as assessing risks.
I mean, you could never have predicted this to happen,
but there are always risks. I mean, we know throughout
history there have been plagues, and there have been viruses
(13:30):
and diseases. I mean, it was only a hundred years
ago we have the Spanish fluid that killed several million people.
I just think we should be better prepared for these
kinds of things. What would you say to people who
are worried about losing their jobs and paying their mortgage,
the practical everyday things that are coming down the road. Well,
you know this is going to be tough for people.
(13:50):
This is where you need communities, and you need donations
and charitable efforts and things. We all have to take
care of each other right now and be compassionate towards people.
People are going to face very tough times. But the
most important thing we can do to help people is
to rebuild the economy. We know what works. We know
limited government, incentivizing businesses to work, cutting taxes or business
(14:14):
and invest more, deregulating the economy, get back to the
things that work, and that's the most compassionate pro growth
policy out there. We don't want to just focus on
the next three or four weeks. I mean, obviously that's
a critical period of providing people the aid that they
need to get through this, But how do we rebuild
the economy afterwards. Let's get in place policies that supercharge
(14:37):
this economy starting let's say May first. When the crisis
is over, you have a deep downturn. But then you
should remember how fast the economy grew in the Reagan years.
We had years of eight percent growth under Reagan because
we put in place the right policies. Very important that
Trump not allow this to be the moment where the
(14:57):
establishment gets to unravel all the policies that have made
him so successful. This is a national emergency. These on
color old very often. I would do what Lincoln and
Roosevelt did. I would assert presidential power to do things.
Thank guys, right, listen, this has been very, very helpful.
I appreciate it very much. It's great to work with you.
(15:19):
Thank the rest. Speaker out doctor. So, I'm currently living
in Italy, where the coronavirus continues to spread and where
everything is closed except for the grocery stores and pharmacist.
The impact of the European Union economy cannot be overstated.
I discussed the EU economic impact from coronavirus and neots
(15:42):
Inner Circle dot com. It's a subscription service where I
offer insights and commentary on the issues that matter to me.
Most joined today and newts Inner circle dot com Next,
what every American needs to understand about the expected economic downturn. Charles,
(16:17):
I really appreciate you're sharing with us because you cover
the economy for Fox Business News and do a great job.
I just so we'd have a chat about how you
see the coronavirus affecting both the US and the world
economy and what you think God to be done about it.
It's really so amazing that this is happening at this
particular moment, because, well, you have a two major forces
(16:40):
that have now collided. One was a resurging US economy.
Some of the things that held us back last year.
We're actually taking the lead this year. Obvious signs of
manufacturing returning big time, particularly since President Trump stilling to
Phase one trade deal. And then the housing market. There's
a housing resurgence, homeownership beginning to get back to levels
(17:01):
not seen in many, many years. Refinancings through the Root
just announced a four hundred and seventy nine percent increase
and refined in the most recent week from a year ago.
So we had that juggernaut of an economy that created
seven hundred and thirty thousand jobs in ninety days versus
this dark hole of the unknown. What happens as we
(17:23):
start to shut down its economy. What happens is people
have become afraid because the biggest lynchpin to all of
our success has been enormous consumer confidence. Even through all
of the things in the last two years, from impeachment
efforts to talk of recession to the killing of Solomony,
whatever was headlines in the major media and where they
(17:43):
suggested that we were going to go off the rails,
the American consumer never took that fate. Obviously, this is
going to be different, and this is the hard part
to figure out to quantify at this particular point. But
we've got those two forces that are going against each
other in the US. How concerned are you that the challenges,
for example, to the airlines or the cruise ships, that
(18:05):
it will kill us into a recession. This has been
an amazingly strong economy. Seven hundred and thirty thousand new
jobs in ninety days. Think about that at the end
of the so called business cycle. Beyond remarkable, beyond amazing,
just an absolute juggernaut and good paying jobs where the
lower half of the income ladder actually seeing the fastest
(18:27):
wage games. That's a big question. Listen, a lot of
people are saying recession. The noise is loud enough now
if you're working from home, if your kid is in
this school, obviously, if you're in a situation like that,
then it's more than just reading headlines. You are actually
in a position where you are concerned and you start
to believe them in I think at this point recession
(18:47):
is all about being a self fulfilling prophecy in this country.
I didn't think it had to happen. Parts of me
still believes it doesn't have to happen. But if it does,
it probably could be shallow. I mean, when things can
change very quickly with all of this as we enter
the spring and summer months, and I think we're going
to have sort of a shock to the system as
a lot of things shut down as we see more
(19:08):
many quarantines. But I think we can also see some
of this the man picked up in the later half
of the year. When you look at the really steep
market drops, they actually turn around with amazing speed and
they don't seem to affect the general economy. At least
three occasions now we've had a very substantial correction, sometimes
(19:29):
going into bear market numbers below, But ninety days later,
one hundred and eighty days later, people have gone back in,
They found bargains, they put money back in, and they
don't seem to be a correlation between how the stock
market operates in the general economy. In those cases, the
stock market overreacts. A lot of those studies have been
(19:50):
done in association with the Mirrors, Stars and some of
the other virus worries that drove our economy down for
a short period of time, and I think that's the
same here. Now. You have to weigh the postponements versus cancelations.
For instance, Coachella, the concert that all the millennials go
to in California, was postponed. They'll have it in October.
(20:13):
By the same token, though, any plane that takes off
today from Delta that has empty seats, you can never
go back and fill those seats. So there's a part
of this cancelation wave that's going on, the social distancing
and the mitigation efforts that will have a different kind
of an economic impact this time around that correlates with
the stock market. But I still believe the stock market
(20:34):
is pricing in a worst case scenario that I don't
think is going to happen. You're sort of moderately optimistic. Yes,
I am. So. Do you think the president should not
go overboard in a stimulus package. I think he's got
to go overboard. I came up as a traditional economic
conservative thinker, but I know this is also an election here.
(20:55):
I also know what the markets want. I also know
what people want. If there it does not go overboard.
Right now, that self fulfilling aspect that I talked about,
that equation gets a whole lot worse. The market goes
down a whole lot more, and it reverberates around this
country where people are going to be talking not recession,
but severe recession, and then you'll see articles about a
(21:17):
great depression. I am so concerned about the intangible aspects,
of the psychological aspects more so than the economic because
I think that's going to drive the economic and the
President is going to have to deliver on something that's
going to wrinkle a whole lot of Republicans, a whole
lot of fiscal conservatives. But it's the only way I
think that he'll be able to curb the psychological impact,
(21:38):
which ultimately curbs the economic impact. I think I agree
with you in the sense that there's a wave of
constant barrage of negativity that they would love to have
a recession so that they could take away his greatest strength,
which is being the job creator. They would go into
the fall campaign, the New York Times and the Washington
(21:59):
Post sense of happiness such as they've not had since
twenty sixteen. Well, on the other hand, the underlying fundamentals
are so powerful that if the president is seeing psychologically
reassuring people, it seems to me we could see this
whole thing bouncing back pretty rapidly. He's gonna have to
come a little bit stronger and harder than even maybe
(22:20):
his own instincts are. But I will tell you he's
got amazing instincts, and I don't think it's gonna be him.
I think it's going to be some of these other
Republicans who are going to say, well, that's not fiscally responsible,
or even today some of the early things I'm hearing
from a nu Chin don't call it a bailout, don't
focus on that. Who cares. Let the media call it
(22:42):
what they want. You know, we're gonna do targeted. It's
going to be small. It's no, no, that's not what
the world wants to hear right now. That is not
what's happening right now. Again, this is a brand new playbook.
It is an election year, and if it looks like
the president is sort of fiddling while folks would out
health insurance can't get tested for the coronavirus, he's not
(23:03):
going to get reelected. It seems to me that this
is sort of a one two punch. On the one hand,
he's got to handle the public health side of this
so that people got to be comfortable that the president
led the effort, and then second they have to be
creating jobs. He has a much bigger risk than any
normal president would have because his approval rating is so
(23:28):
closely tied to the economy in the sense that whether
you like or dislike his tweets, you sure like the
way he's been very smart about keeping this growth going.
So I think you and I are probably an agreement.
I think that's going to be Trump's position in the summer.
He's going to have something to keep us out of
trouble so people can continue to get jobs and have
(23:49):
better jobs and have higher pay. But the country then
has to make the Congress actually deliver it absolutely if indeed,
it's like almost every virus, and it starts have trouble
living for long periods of time at sixty degree weather
or better. We start this mitigation effort, the social distancing
starts to work, and those numbers start to turn lower.
(24:11):
We start having fewer cases limited deaths. At the same time,
we have this economic shop starts to fade and things
which have been postponed are now out again, and people
start to spend some of this money they have. We
could actually have a really strong, roaring rebound from the
middle month lows right into the election. It could actually
(24:31):
be perfectly time for President Trump. He could actually end
up roaring back in a way that Reagan did in
nineteen eighty four. People forget that Reagan was behind Mondale
in the fall of eighty three. Are there any particular
things you'd like to see in that kind of package.
I think the payroll tax cut to zero is going
(24:53):
to be important. I think he'll get some support there.
I think you must you absolutely have to find in
a way to get some sort of hate, sickly of help.
In fact, I am predicting that that will become right
now the number one topic during the presidential election, and
you already have corporations, whether it's Darton, Olive Garten, Walmart McDonald's,
(25:15):
all of them are changing policies rapidly because I think
ultimately they don't want DC to change of form. See,
what you don't want is someone who doesn't have health
insurance saying I didn't go to the hospital because I
couldn't afford it even though I was showing signs in
the coronavirus. So we need something there. America loves small
business only our military ranks higher and appreciation and overall
(25:39):
approval than our small businesses. We love them, We want
them to succeed. We do not want them to suffer
from this. Those are the three areas I think he
should focus on. Yeah, I think I would reassure the
productive people of this country that they're going to have
a much better future and that we're going to get
through this. I think so you know, there's no pressure
about bailouts. I think the airline industry is sort of
(26:01):
a no brainer, even though they came into this year
sitting on a fair amount of cash. The cruise industry,
I would skip that, I would ignore in terms of
bailing them out. It's consumer discretionary. And the wild card
will be energy. If you argue about energy independence and
also that it's a security issue that we don't want
to send money back to the Middle East, the Funtarot networks,
(26:24):
there's going to be a good argument for that. I
would like to see the other things addressed first and foremost.
What worries you the most about where we are right now.
It breaks my heart for our economy to be in
a place where it hasn't been in decades, to be
derailed out of spitefulness toward one single person, the President
(26:44):
of the United States, the end of the world coverage
of this when in Italy, you know, the average person
who's died, it's eighty one years old, underlying health issues.
We don't diminish any death in this country. But by
the same tone, almost every medical expert says, the working
age population twenty four to fifty five in this country
(27:06):
probably with survivors if they even got it. So it's
okay to act in an abundance of caution. But the
way it has been promoted news and the impact that
it's having on a psyche of Americans who are feeling
better than they have felt in years I'd say shame, shame, shame.
I agree with that. I think that at least half
of the intensity of the current news coverage is because
(27:29):
it's an opportunity to try to set a standard for
Trump that the news media hopes he will fail at
I'm watching CEO has gone these financial networks. We had
a guy in Goldman Sachs today saying that the bull
market is going to be over there soon, and that's
the headline to end of the bull market. But he
went on to say the economy is going to turn
around so quickly, will actually end the year higher than
(27:51):
we are right now. And he has made the rounds
and people are crushing him. How can you say it's
going to turn around. It's really that intense. If you're
talking just the average American out here berning a living,
what should they be worried about in terms of where
the economy is. They should be worried that we talk
ourselves into a situation that we don't have to be,
(28:12):
and that we do not have to go into a recession,
and that if there is some short term pain, that's
exactly what it should be, a short term. So it's
incommon upon everyone to understand that we're all part of
this thread. And if you are the one who sort
of panics a little bit, if you're the one who
decides you don't want to go to the mall this
weekend or even buy what you were going to buy
(28:33):
on Amazon that you wanted to start to hoard embrace
for the worst case scenario, then guess what You're going
to make it more likely that it happens, and we
all play a role in that. So that's my greatest fear.
On the medical side, I want people to think smarter.
You know. The idea that we don't have mask out
there for people who really need them breaks my heart.
My wife needs mask. She's a hard transplant patient and
(28:56):
there are a lot of people like her out there.
The overall panic has health ramifications and economic ramifications, and
each individual can control that. Do you think that the
transition to more telework, working from home, tele community it
sort of will that be a piece of how this
all gets solved. Absolutely, no doubt about it. And that's
something that no one's really crunched the numbers on. Going
(29:17):
back to any other epidemic or potential pandemic, is everyone's
got the ability to log on from their house and
log on to work. And that's the really interesting thing
is that people are still going to be working. Most
people are going to still be working. Productivity may not
be the same because there'll be the urge to get
up and make a sandwich when you otherwise might not
(29:39):
have in the office. You know what else is interesting
about this new This is the world we've been promised,
you know, the world of the future where work life
balance plays an important role and people are going to
be encouraged to work from home, take more days off,
not drive in, not use their cars. When this whole
thing is over, we might want to start to rethink
just how much of economic damage will there be if
(30:01):
you want to take half the cars off the road,
if you want to just work from home. Because in
all those people who work in your building and make
your lunch, you make that sandwich for you instead of
you making it, they're not going to have a job.
Their kids aren't going to have a future. So it's
utopian world where we all live in big cities and
we all work from our apartments and none of us drive.
(30:21):
As some economic consequences and we're feeling some of it
right now. Listen, it's been very helpful, and I really
appreciate you're taking this kind of time. Thank you very much.
News I've always amargue, and I thank you very much.
The striking thing about where we are right now as
Americans is that we have gone to full stop, which
(30:44):
was the right thing to do. This is a shock effect.
It'll work for two or three weeks, it won't work
for two or three months. We are going to have
to think through how we restart the economy, how we
gradually reopen, and frankly, I'm very disappointed that more has
(31:05):
not been made of the tremendous success in Japan, South Korea, Taiwan,
Hong Kong, and Singapore, who have managed to deal with
this much more effectively than any of the Western countries,
and who I think can teach us a lot about
how to get through this with a lot less damage
to our economy. So we're in a phase right now
(31:28):
where we have no choice except to close down and
hope that distancing people from each other will starve the
virus and begin to break up as momentum. But a
few weeks from now we need to have thought through
how we restart the economy, how we begin to reintegrate people.
That may mean, for example, the people get checks for
(31:50):
their temperature every time they go somewhere. Though we constantly
identify who has a challenge and who hasn't. But we're
not going to be able to keep three hundred and
thirty million people doing nothing for more than a couple
of weeks. So we badly need some people starting to
plan the restart of the American economy, and the conversations
(32:11):
we had today I thought were a very good starting
point for beginning to think about the economic future of America.
How we get back to being a country of growth,
of prosperity, and of a stronger, bigger economy. You can
read more about coronavirus's impact on the US economy on
(32:34):
our show page at newtsworld dot com. Newtsworld is produced
by Gingwish three sixty and iHeartMedia. Our executive producer is
Debbie Myers and our producer is Garnsey Slump. The artwork
for the show was created by Steve Peneley. Special thanks
to the team at Gingwish three sixty. Please email me
with your comments attat newtsworld dot com. If you've been
(32:58):
enjoying Newtsworld, I hope you'll go to Apple Podcast and
both rate us with five stars and give us a
review so others can learn what it's all about. On
the next episode of news World, Mayberian Garrett, characters you
met in my national bestseller Collusion are back in my
new book Shakedown. I'll be joined by my co author
(33:21):
Pete Early, and we'll talk about the book and what
real life situations we've based it on. I'm new English.
This is neats World.
Hi, This is new because of the coronavirus. I am
currently staying at home in Rome, where my wife serves
as the United States ambassador to the Holy See. She's
leading the embassy and dealing with all the different changes
being brought about by the pandemic. To bring you this
episode this week, I'm recording from my home, so you
may notice a difference in audio quality. We have twenty
(00:23):
six and a half million small businesses in this country.
We talk ourselves into a situation that we don't have
to be in, that we do not have to go
into a recession, and that if there is some short
term pain, that's exactly what it should be a short
term On this episode of News World, the coronavirus or
COVID nineteen is spreading rapidly in the United States and
(00:46):
around the world, and it's having a major impact on
our global economy. The stock market has experienced its biggest
losses in history. As bars, restaurants, gyms, and other places
where we socially gather close, Many hourly workers are losing
their jobs. The travel business, including airlines and hotels, are
(01:06):
facing furloughs and layouts. Many small businesses are being impacted.
We are all bracing for the economic impact the coronavirus
may have on all of us. But what is the
right economic policy we should be pursuing at this time.
Do we send thousand dollars checks to everyone who needs
the money, or to incentivize the economy with tax measures
(01:29):
that will boost the businesses most significantly impacted so they
can preserve their workforce. As the trillion dollar coronavirus economic
bailout makes its way through Congress, I think it's important
to discuss how the US economy should be supported and
pleased to welcome my guests, Steve Moore distinguish visiting fellow
(01:50):
for the Project for Economic Growth at the Heritage Foundation
and Charles Paint, host of Making Money with Charles Paint
on the Fox to Business Network. We're doing such damage
(02:13):
to the economy as a function of our public health
measures that I wanted to have somebody who I've worked
with for years and who I have enormous respect for
share with us his view. Certainly one of the people
who best understands the Reagan Revolution, the rise of supply
side economics, and why Trump's policies for three years were
(02:33):
so effective. And that's doctor Steve Moore to who's at
Heritage and who has been very close to the White House. Steve,
I'd really love for you to share with us if
you were in the president's shoes and you had the
challenges we currently have, what would your recommendations do. But
let's start with the most important point, which is this
(02:54):
president really has rebuilt the American economy an incredible way
over the last three years, and this gives us a
good starting point. You go back just three weeks ago,
we had that Job's report with three hundred and fifty
thousand new jobs, including the revisions from previous months. The
economy was growing at three to three and a half percent,
(03:14):
something that had never happened in eight years under Obama.
We had the lowest unemployment rate three and a half percent,
that we've got in our lifetime. So we start this
virus situation with an economy, thank goodness, that is strong
to begin with, but there is going to be a
heavy toll and it already is being felt around the country.
I'm in washingtonc right now. Most of the streets of
(03:34):
Washington are pretty vacant right now. My son lives in
San Francisco. San Francisco is in a total lockdown. It
may be very similar to your situation there in Italy.
Manhattan is the same way. So this is going to
be a heavy, heavy toll on the economy. There's just
no question about it. We just have to hope that
this doesn't last more than six to eight weeks. Now,
(03:55):
what would I do if I were the president? The
single most important thing he did is that he down
travel from China. That was the single most important public
health measure. Now, the first thing I would do, and
the President is doing this. We have twenty six and
a half million small businesses in this country. The vast,
vast majority of them were very healthy going into this.
(04:17):
We don't want those companies to go bankrupt because as
soon as this is over, we want them to be
able to spring back to life. And so what the
President has done is said, look, if you can't get
a loan from a bank, we're going to open up
the government credit for you so that you can get
a six month loan at maybe one percent interest to
make sure you don't have to go bankrupt or have
a fighter sale on your assets. We also want to
(04:40):
make sure that these companies can meet their payrolls and
not have to lay off all of their employees. If
you do that, then as soon as this is over,
instead of companies that are bankrupt, you have companies that
can get going again and get our economy back to normally.
The second thing that you need to do is make
sure that the steps that you take to provide temporary
help to people are not going to impede the economy
(05:02):
once we come out of this. Almost everything Nancy Pelosi
wants to do would actually weaken the economy. Just let
me give you one example. It's amazing. She wants to
require every business in America to provide paid leave to
their employees. Now, now, where the businesses are going to
get the money to do that. I mean, it's just
a really bad policy to require that of businesses. We
(05:24):
shouldn't be doing welfare programs. I don't have a big
problem with the one thousand dollars payments right now, just
to give people some cash. I like the idea of
suspending the payroll tax for every business in America and
every worker in America. That's one hundred and sixty million
Americans which would get a tax cut, and twenty seven
million small businesses that are facing a financial crunch. Would
(05:46):
get a seven percent reduction on their payroll costs. I
love that idea. Trump likes it. Let's hope that he
does it. What's the advantage of that over just continuing
to send more money after the first thousand dollars? Is that?
Will you sort of stop? How do you see this
playing out? If the government gives us somebody a thousand dollars,
new it has to take a thousand dollars away from
(06:08):
someone else, Right, If there's no sense thing, it's pretty money.
The government can only give money to someone if it
takes money from somebody who is productive in the economy.
This is a redistribution program away from people are producing
to people who, in many cases are not producing. That's
not a way to grow the economy. Now, I'm not
saying we shouldn't do it as a kind of humanitarian,
(06:29):
compassionate policy to make sure people don't go hungry and
are financially strapped, but it should be a short term policy.
If you eliminate the payroll tax, you're giving incentives for
businesses to hire workers, especially when we come out of
the recession, and you give workers an incentive to work more. Right,
because you're giving every worker essentially a seven and a
half percent raise by taking less money out of their paycheck,
(06:52):
and you're reducing the payroll costs of employers, so it
has positive incentive effects unlike many of these other welfare programs.
Somebody is talking about the idea of going to one
hundred percent expensing on a permanent basis to encourage businesses
to dramatically modernize and also to give them the resources
to pull their step back from China. Do you have
(07:14):
any feel personally on the whole issue of expensing and
the presence fantastic tax cut that we did in two seventeen.
We basically provided businesses with expensing and that has been
a boon to the economy, There's no question. So I
would love to see that made permanent. Absolutely, that would
be a good policy. I would like to see a
reduction in the capital gain section. The one mistake we
(07:35):
made in our tax bill because we didn't have the
votes to do it, was to cut the tax on
capital gains, which is a tax on investment. We're going
to need more investment. I like any policy that provides
positive incentives, and economics is all about incentives. How do
you incentivize businesses to hire. How do you incentivize businesses
to invest, how do you incentivize people to work? Yes,
(07:56):
tax reductions can have a very positive impact. If we
could get the Treasury to move to fifty one hundred
year bonds at the current extraordinarily low interest rate, we
would liberate an out year so much money when the
interest rates naturally go up as the economy recovers. If
you could lock in fifty one hundred year bonds a
(08:18):
one and a half or two percent, and given that
the world is as a natural flight to safety, and
in the end that means to the United States, I
would think the market would absorb those bonds pretty rapidly. Well,
there is exactly right. I mean, this is the most
amazing time. I never thought i'd see a time in
my lifetime when you would see a ten year Treasury
(08:42):
bill is at I think point eight and the thirty
year treasury is a little over one percent. And if
you did a fifty year bond, you might be able
to lock in an interest rate and maybe one and
a quarter percent. That way, you're protecting yourself because look,
the federal government is twenty trillion dollars in debt. Protecting
yourself from the risk of interest rates going way up
(09:03):
in the future. I don't know how much they're going
to go up, but I guarantee you they're going to
go up in the next two, five, ten, fifteen years.
And you're locking in those low rates. You're proposing, mister speaker,
is to refinance the debt, and absolutely we should, just
like every homeowner is refinancing their mortgage. And it's a
great opportunity, and you're exactly right. I've calculated the savings
(09:25):
at about three trillion dollars over the next twenty five years,
three trillion dollars, and this is a good way to
finance these short term measures that we have to take
to make sure that this recession doesn't turn into a depression. Well,
the way is there any way to create a window
where people who have student debt could also roll that
(09:46):
over into this lower interest because I think the average
student is at four or five percent. That saves them
over their lifetime a fair amount of money. The reason
we have a student debt crisis is because, in my opinion,
a single east scam in America, and it's been going
on for thirty years, is how much our colleges and
universities are charging our families. It is outrageous. Every college
(10:08):
and university should be able to cut their tuition by
five or ten thousand dollars if they were efficient. And
the reason that we have these escalating tuition costs. If
you're a middle class family and you've got two kids
in college, you're talking about an expensive maybe one hundred
thousand dollars a year. I mean, how our families going
to pay for that? But you're right for now, we
should certainly try to refinance the student debt as well,
(10:30):
but we have to drive tuition costs about next what
Americans can do about their financial well being during the
spread of the coronavirus. And I think the question and
(11:00):
we need to be asking, is where do you draw
a line? I mean, how much economic damage aren't we
willing to tolerate to save thirty or forty eight thousand lives.
We don't even know how many lives might be jeopardized
by this. I mean, right now, as we speak, there
are fewer than fifty gusts from the coronavirus. That's fewer
people that die from a drug overdose. Is every day,
if we take a five trillion dollars hit to our
(11:23):
US economy. Think of the human toll that that will take.
I don't know the answer to this. I'm just kind
of asking the question. We can't continue for eight to
ten weeks with an American economy that's shut down. There
will be chaos, there will be suicides, there will be
people in the streets in deprivation. The consequence of shutting
(11:43):
it down our economy are enormous, like nothing we've ever
seen before. I think that's right. I think that they
have to pivot and begin to figure out a controlled
way to begin reopening things. Yes, yes, totally agree with you.
If you can't have people congregating, it's going to be
very difficult for our economy as this goes on week
(12:04):
after week. The president has one thousand dollars program right
now that they're going to sound out checks. Okay, well,
what are you going to do three weeks from now?
I guess on the people another thousand dollars. I mean,
at some point, you do run out of money. In
South Korea and you walked into a hotel, they checked
your temperature. They would record your temperature. They actually allowed
a very high level of individual mobility, but it was
(12:25):
a continuously checked mobility. It's one thing to have a
sort of shock effect for a few days. It doesn't
work if you're trying to do this for two or
three or four months. I would argue that our national
security and our national health are the single most important things.
And the fact that we're spending five trillion dollars it's
(12:47):
been a month out we still don't have a good
screen and task for this virus is outrageous. And we
spend billions and billions of dollars at the centers for
disease control and on healthcare. We spent over a choice
of dollars on government healthcare programs. The government has led
us dound big time here, and we got to figure
out how to fix this. I think the thing to
(13:08):
recognize is this is like the fifth virus that cyclically
comes out of animals, and we ought to have a
routine expectation of yes, it will happen. This is how
we'll respond, what the government should be doing as assessing risks.
I mean, you could never have predicted this to happen,
but there are always risks. I mean, we know throughout
history there have been plagues, and there have been viruses
(13:30):
and diseases. I mean, it was only a hundred years
ago we have the Spanish fluid that killed several million people.
I just think we should be better prepared for these
kinds of things. What would you say to people who
are worried about losing their jobs and paying their mortgage,
the practical everyday things that are coming down the road. Well,
you know this is going to be tough for people.
(13:50):
This is where you need communities, and you need donations
and charitable efforts and things. We all have to take
care of each other right now and be compassionate towards people.
People are going to face very tough times. But the
most important thing we can do to help people is
to rebuild the economy. We know what works. We know
limited government, incentivizing businesses to work, cutting taxes or business
(14:14):
and invest more, deregulating the economy, get back to the
things that work, and that's the most compassionate pro growth
policy out there. We don't want to just focus on
the next three or four weeks. I mean, obviously that's
a critical period of providing people the aid that they
need to get through this, But how do we rebuild
the economy afterwards. Let's get in place policies that supercharge
(14:37):
this economy starting let's say May first. When the crisis
is over, you have a deep downturn. But then you
should remember how fast the economy grew in the Reagan years.
We had years of eight percent growth under Reagan because
we put in place the right policies. Very important that
Trump not allow this to be the moment where the
(14:57):
establishment gets to unravel all the policies that have made
him so successful. This is a national emergency. These on
color old very often. I would do what Lincoln and
Roosevelt did. I would assert presidential power to do things.
Thank guys, right, listen, this has been very, very helpful.
I appreciate it very much. It's great to work with you.
(15:19):
Thank the rest. Speaker out doctor. So, I'm currently living
in Italy, where the coronavirus continues to spread and where
everything is closed except for the grocery stores and pharmacist.
The impact of the European Union economy cannot be overstated.
I discussed the EU economic impact from coronavirus and neots
(15:42):
Inner Circle dot com. It's a subscription service where I
offer insights and commentary on the issues that matter to me.
Most joined today and newts Inner circle dot com Next,
what every American needs to understand about the expected economic downturn. Charles,
(16:17):
I really appreciate you're sharing with us because you cover
the economy for Fox Business News and do a great job.
I just so we'd have a chat about how you
see the coronavirus affecting both the US and the world
economy and what you think God to be done about it.
It's really so amazing that this is happening at this
particular moment, because, well, you have a two major forces
(16:40):
that have now collided. One was a resurging US economy.
Some of the things that held us back last year.
We're actually taking the lead this year. Obvious signs of
manufacturing returning big time, particularly since President Trump stilling to
Phase one trade deal. And then the housing market. There's
a housing resurgence, homeownership beginning to get back to levels
(17:01):
not seen in many, many years. Refinancings through the Root
just announced a four hundred and seventy nine percent increase
and refined in the most recent week from a year ago.
So we had that juggernaut of an economy that created
seven hundred and thirty thousand jobs in ninety days versus
this dark hole of the unknown. What happens as we
(17:23):
start to shut down its economy. What happens is people
have become afraid because the biggest lynchpin to all of
our success has been enormous consumer confidence. Even through all
of the things in the last two years, from impeachment
efforts to talk of recession to the killing of Solomony,
whatever was headlines in the major media and where they
(17:43):
suggested that we were going to go off the rails,
the American consumer never took that fate. Obviously, this is
going to be different, and this is the hard part
to figure out to quantify at this particular point. But
we've got those two forces that are going against each
other in the US. How concerned are you that the challenges,
for example, to the airlines or the cruise ships, that
(18:05):
it will kill us into a recession. This has been
an amazingly strong economy. Seven hundred and thirty thousand new
jobs in ninety days. Think about that at the end
of the so called business cycle. Beyond remarkable, beyond amazing,
just an absolute juggernaut and good paying jobs where the
lower half of the income ladder actually seeing the fastest
(18:27):
wage games. That's a big question. Listen, a lot of
people are saying recession. The noise is loud enough now
if you're working from home, if your kid is in
this school, obviously, if you're in a situation like that,
then it's more than just reading headlines. You are actually
in a position where you are concerned and you start
to believe them in I think at this point recession
(18:47):
is all about being a self fulfilling prophecy in this country.
I didn't think it had to happen. Parts of me
still believes it doesn't have to happen. But if it does,
it probably could be shallow. I mean, when things can
change very quickly with all of this as we enter
the spring and summer months, and I think we're going
to have sort of a shock to the system as
a lot of things shut down as we see more
(19:08):
many quarantines. But I think we can also see some
of this the man picked up in the later half
of the year. When you look at the really steep
market drops, they actually turn around with amazing speed and
they don't seem to affect the general economy. At least
three occasions now we've had a very substantial correction, sometimes
(19:29):
going into bear market numbers below, But ninety days later,
one hundred and eighty days later, people have gone back in,
They found bargains, they put money back in, and they
don't seem to be a correlation between how the stock
market operates in the general economy. In those cases, the
stock market overreacts. A lot of those studies have been
(19:50):
done in association with the Mirrors, Stars and some of
the other virus worries that drove our economy down for
a short period of time, and I think that's the
same here. Now. You have to weigh the postponements versus cancelations.
For instance, Coachella, the concert that all the millennials go
to in California, was postponed. They'll have it in October.
(20:13):
By the same token, though, any plane that takes off
today from Delta that has empty seats, you can never
go back and fill those seats. So there's a part
of this cancelation wave that's going on, the social distancing
and the mitigation efforts that will have a different kind
of an economic impact this time around that correlates with
the stock market. But I still believe the stock market
(20:34):
is pricing in a worst case scenario that I don't
think is going to happen. You're sort of moderately optimistic. Yes,
I am. So. Do you think the president should not
go overboard in a stimulus package. I think he's got
to go overboard. I came up as a traditional economic
conservative thinker, but I know this is also an election here.
(20:55):
I also know what the markets want. I also know
what people want. If there it does not go overboard.
Right now, that self fulfilling aspect that I talked about,
that equation gets a whole lot worse. The market goes
down a whole lot more, and it reverberates around this
country where people are going to be talking not recession,
but severe recession, and then you'll see articles about a
(21:17):
great depression. I am so concerned about the intangible aspects,
of the psychological aspects more so than the economic because
I think that's going to drive the economic and the
President is going to have to deliver on something that's
going to wrinkle a whole lot of Republicans, a whole
lot of fiscal conservatives. But it's the only way I
think that he'll be able to curb the psychological impact,
(21:38):
which ultimately curbs the economic impact. I think I agree
with you in the sense that there's a wave of
constant barrage of negativity that they would love to have
a recession so that they could take away his greatest strength,
which is being the job creator. They would go into
the fall campaign, the New York Times and the Washington
(21:59):
Post sense of happiness such as they've not had since
twenty sixteen. Well, on the other hand, the underlying fundamentals
are so powerful that if the president is seeing psychologically
reassuring people, it seems to me we could see this
whole thing bouncing back pretty rapidly. He's gonna have to
come a little bit stronger and harder than even maybe
(22:20):
his own instincts are. But I will tell you he's
got amazing instincts, and I don't think it's gonna be him.
I think it's going to be some of these other
Republicans who are going to say, well, that's not fiscally responsible,
or even today some of the early things I'm hearing
from a nu Chin don't call it a bailout, don't
focus on that. Who cares. Let the media call it
(22:42):
what they want. You know, we're gonna do targeted. It's
going to be small. It's no, no, that's not what
the world wants to hear right now. That is not
what's happening right now. Again, this is a brand new playbook.
It is an election year, and if it looks like
the president is sort of fiddling while folks would out
health insurance can't get tested for the coronavirus, he's not
(23:03):
going to get reelected. It seems to me that this
is sort of a one two punch. On the one hand,
he's got to handle the public health side of this
so that people got to be comfortable that the president
led the effort, and then second they have to be
creating jobs. He has a much bigger risk than any
normal president would have because his approval rating is so
(23:28):
closely tied to the economy in the sense that whether
you like or dislike his tweets, you sure like the
way he's been very smart about keeping this growth going.
So I think you and I are probably an agreement.
I think that's going to be Trump's position in the summer.
He's going to have something to keep us out of
trouble so people can continue to get jobs and have
(23:49):
better jobs and have higher pay. But the country then
has to make the Congress actually deliver it absolutely if indeed,
it's like almost every virus, and it starts have trouble
living for long periods of time at sixty degree weather
or better. We start this mitigation effort, the social distancing
starts to work, and those numbers start to turn lower.
(24:11):
We start having fewer cases limited deaths. At the same time,
we have this economic shop starts to fade and things
which have been postponed are now out again, and people
start to spend some of this money they have. We
could actually have a really strong, roaring rebound from the
middle month lows right into the election. It could actually
(24:31):
be perfectly time for President Trump. He could actually end
up roaring back in a way that Reagan did in
nineteen eighty four. People forget that Reagan was behind Mondale
in the fall of eighty three. Are there any particular
things you'd like to see in that kind of package.
I think the payroll tax cut to zero is going
(24:53):
to be important. I think he'll get some support there.
I think you must you absolutely have to find in
a way to get some sort of hate, sickly of help.
In fact, I am predicting that that will become right
now the number one topic during the presidential election, and
you already have corporations, whether it's Darton, Olive Garten, Walmart McDonald's,
(25:15):
all of them are changing policies rapidly because I think
ultimately they don't want DC to change of form. See,
what you don't want is someone who doesn't have health
insurance saying I didn't go to the hospital because I
couldn't afford it even though I was showing signs in
the coronavirus. So we need something there. America loves small
business only our military ranks higher and appreciation and overall
(25:39):
approval than our small businesses. We love them, We want
them to succeed. We do not want them to suffer
from this. Those are the three areas I think he
should focus on. Yeah, I think I would reassure the
productive people of this country that they're going to have
a much better future and that we're going to get
through this. I think so you know, there's no pressure
about bailouts. I think the airline industry is sort of
(26:01):
a no brainer, even though they came into this year
sitting on a fair amount of cash. The cruise industry,
I would skip that, I would ignore in terms of
bailing them out. It's consumer discretionary. And the wild card
will be energy. If you argue about energy independence and
also that it's a security issue that we don't want
to send money back to the Middle East, the Funtarot networks,
(26:24):
there's going to be a good argument for that. I
would like to see the other things addressed first and foremost.
What worries you the most about where we are right now.
It breaks my heart for our economy to be in
a place where it hasn't been in decades, to be
derailed out of spitefulness toward one single person, the President
(26:44):
of the United States, the end of the world coverage
of this when in Italy, you know, the average person
who's died, it's eighty one years old, underlying health issues.
We don't diminish any death in this country. But by
the same tone, almost every medical expert says, the working
age population twenty four to fifty five in this country
(27:06):
probably with survivors if they even got it. So it's
okay to act in an abundance of caution. But the
way it has been promoted news and the impact that
it's having on a psyche of Americans who are feeling
better than they have felt in years I'd say shame, shame, shame.
I agree with that. I think that at least half
of the intensity of the current news coverage is because
(27:29):
it's an opportunity to try to set a standard for
Trump that the news media hopes he will fail at
I'm watching CEO has gone these financial networks. We had
a guy in Goldman Sachs today saying that the bull
market is going to be over there soon, and that's
the headline to end of the bull market. But he
went on to say the economy is going to turn
around so quickly, will actually end the year higher than
(27:51):
we are right now. And he has made the rounds
and people are crushing him. How can you say it's
going to turn around. It's really that intense. If you're
talking just the average American out here berning a living,
what should they be worried about in terms of where
the economy is. They should be worried that we talk
ourselves into a situation that we don't have to be,
(28:12):
and that we do not have to go into a recession,
and that if there is some short term pain, that's
exactly what it should be, a short term. So it's
incommon upon everyone to understand that we're all part of
this thread. And if you are the one who sort
of panics a little bit, if you're the one who
decides you don't want to go to the mall this
weekend or even buy what you were going to buy
(28:33):
on Amazon that you wanted to start to hoard embrace
for the worst case scenario, then guess what You're going
to make it more likely that it happens, and we
all play a role in that. So that's my greatest fear.
On the medical side, I want people to think smarter.
You know. The idea that we don't have mask out
there for people who really need them breaks my heart.
My wife needs mask. She's a hard transplant patient and
(28:56):
there are a lot of people like her out there.
The overall panic has health ramifications and economic ramifications, and
each individual can control that. Do you think that the
transition to more telework, working from home, tele community it
sort of will that be a piece of how this
all gets solved. Absolutely, no doubt about it. And that's
something that no one's really crunched the numbers on. Going
(29:17):
back to any other epidemic or potential pandemic, is everyone's
got the ability to log on from their house and
log on to work. And that's the really interesting thing
is that people are still going to be working. Most
people are going to still be working. Productivity may not
be the same because there'll be the urge to get
up and make a sandwich when you otherwise might not
(29:39):
have in the office. You know what else is interesting
about this new This is the world we've been promised,
you know, the world of the future where work life
balance plays an important role and people are going to
be encouraged to work from home, take more days off,
not drive in, not use their cars. When this whole
thing is over, we might want to start to rethink
just how much of economic damage will there be if
(30:01):
you want to take half the cars off the road,
if you want to just work from home. Because in
all those people who work in your building and make
your lunch, you make that sandwich for you instead of
you making it, they're not going to have a job.
Their kids aren't going to have a future. So it's
utopian world where we all live in big cities and
we all work from our apartments and none of us drive.
(30:21):
As some economic consequences and we're feeling some of it
right now. Listen, it's been very helpful, and I really
appreciate you're taking this kind of time. Thank you very much.
News I've always amargue, and I thank you very much.
The striking thing about where we are right now as
Americans is that we have gone to full stop, which
(30:44):
was the right thing to do. This is a shock effect.
It'll work for two or three weeks, it won't work
for two or three months. We are going to have
to think through how we restart the economy, how we
gradually reopen, and frankly, I'm very disappointed that more has
(31:05):
not been made of the tremendous success in Japan, South Korea, Taiwan,
Hong Kong, and Singapore, who have managed to deal with
this much more effectively than any of the Western countries,
and who I think can teach us a lot about
how to get through this with a lot less damage
to our economy. So we're in a phase right now
(31:28):
where we have no choice except to close down and
hope that distancing people from each other will starve the
virus and begin to break up as momentum. But a
few weeks from now we need to have thought through
how we restart the economy, how we begin to reintegrate people.
That may mean, for example, the people get checks for
(31:50):
their temperature every time they go somewhere. Though we constantly
identify who has a challenge and who hasn't. But we're
not going to be able to keep three hundred and
thirty million people doing nothing for more than a couple
of weeks. So we badly need some people starting to
plan the restart of the American economy, and the conversations
(32:11):
we had today I thought were a very good starting
point for beginning to think about the economic future of America.
How we get back to being a country of growth,
of prosperity, and of a stronger, bigger economy. You can
read more about coronavirus's impact on the US economy on
(32:34):
our show page at newtsworld dot com. Newtsworld is produced
by Gingwish three sixty and iHeartMedia. Our executive producer is
Debbie Myers and our producer is Garnsey Slump. The artwork
for the show was created by Steve Peneley. Special thanks
to the team at Gingwish three sixty. Please email me
with your comments attat newtsworld dot com. If you've been
(32:58):
enjoying Newtsworld, I hope you'll go to Apple Podcast and
both rate us with five stars and give us a
review so others can learn what it's all about. On
the next episode of news World, Mayberian Garrett, characters you
met in my national bestseller Collusion are back in my
new book Shakedown. I'll be joined by my co author
(33:21):
Pete Early, and we'll talk about the book and what
real life situations we've based it on. I'm new English.
This is neats World.
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