November 4, 2024 • 38 mins
Newt talks with pollster Seth Keshel, who provides an in-depth analysis of the upcoming election. Keshel discusses his unique approach to studying polling data, focusing on swing states, low propensity voters, and early voting trends. He shares insights from his military intelligence background and how it aids his understanding of complex data. Kessel predicts significant Republican gains in key states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Florida, attributing shifts to voter registration trends and demographic changes. He also highlights the impact of urban and suburban voting patterns, particularly in states like Texas and Nevada. Keshel's analysis suggests a strong performance for Trump, potentially leading to a decisive victory. They conclude with a discussion on the importance of voter turnout and the role of media narratives in shaping election outcomes.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:04):
On this episode of NEWTS World. As election day nears,
I wanted to have someone on who's taking a unique
look at polling data in this election cycle. He's been
studying the swing states and methodically going through county by
county to understand how each state will perform. He's been
looking at low propensity voters, independent voters, and his analyzed
(00:26):
early vote. He is one of the most knowledgeable pollsters
on the upcoming election, and he approaches it from a
very unique perspective. So I'm really pleased to welcome my guests,
pollster Seth Keshel. He is on Telegram and on sub sect.
His site is Captain Kay's Corner. Seth, welcome and thank
(00:57):
you for joining me on Newtsworld.
Speaker 2 (00:58):
Well, thank you so much, miss Speaker. It's like we
were talking about before I jumped on. It's an honor
to get to collaborate with you, especially as we approach
a very important day.
Speaker 1 (01:06):
Well, I have to ask you, how did your military
intelligence background help you as you thought about the election
polling business.
Speaker 2 (01:14):
So I've always been a numbers guy. I'm a baseball
guy at heart. God did not give me the ability
to be a great athlete, but he gave me the
mind and appreciate the numbers. And I was a baseball
analyst in college at Old Miss and wound up joining
Army RGC, following the family tradition in the military, wound
up as an Army intelligence officer a tactical level. Never
went beyond the rank of captain, just served six years.
(01:36):
And my job requirements were to understand lots of data points,
lots of events over a massive expanse. So we're talking
about an area of the size of Georgia and western Afghanistan,
and to be able to boil that down into digestible
pieces of information to give to my commander to inform
his decision making. So we have fifty different states. We
have Washington, d C. We have two split districts. We
have more than fifty separate elections that contribute five hundred
(01:59):
and thirty eight elector votes, and they all balance in
different directions, and they have different variables and different trends racial, ethnic,
socioeconomic trends, and I'm able to balance and understand these.
I can spot inaccuracies in media reporting and also narratives.
And in twenty sixteen, when Ohio was given to Trump
by the media two months out, and it was going
(02:19):
to be five plus. I knew right away there was
no way that that matched up with a Clinton plus
ten or twelve point popular vote map. Ohio had only
missed the presidential winner twice since eighteen ninety six. So
I went back, deconstructed the map, learned about voter registration
by party trend, and figured out pretty quickly that Trump
was on pace to grab Pennsylvania, Michigan, and I wound
up calling all fifty states right in twenty sixteen. And
(02:41):
one of the reasons we have issues with twenty twenty
based on the analysis is because it defied every single trend, indicator, bellweather,
and predictor known to political analysts since the eighteen hundreds.
Speaker 1 (02:50):
How do you explain that, Well.
Speaker 2 (02:52):
You know, it's about ballots. I did an event in
Los Angeles in January with Brad Parskale, who used to
work with the Trump campaign. First time I'd met the guy,
and being exposed to so many different viewpoints allows you
to understand what other people are seeing out there. And
he referred to certain states as messaging states, like Florida, Texas.
Florida got anti communist message, You're going to pull Florida
easily these days Texas big energy message, freedom message. But
(03:17):
other states like Pennsylvania he referred to as ballot states
where the messaging no longer matters as much. Now Trump's
messaging plays up there with the working class message, but
collecting ballots is what has to happen. So getting in
there and throw in a wrench in the screws of
the mail in agenda is important. Getting the early vote
out is important. But that's where the twenty twenty election broke.
(03:38):
All the rules went around all the legislators, which have
the authority, the only authority to change election law. So
really you could make the case that most of the
twenty twenty election was not even conducted under a legal premise.
But those were what were responsible for generating this low
propensity turnout, ensuring that everybody's casting a vote, rather than
having the traditional political indicators of enthusiasm, which Trump had
(03:59):
an enthusiasm gap over Biden and probably an even bigger
one over Harris this year.
Speaker 1 (04:04):
The two things one is that voter registration tells you
a lot, and the other is there can be mechanisms
that overwhelm the registration.
Speaker 2 (04:16):
Correct usually if it's consistent enough and strong enough, it's
very hard to buck against the voter registration trend. For
the data in Pennsylvania, I can find one county that
sometimes bucks, and that's Alleghany County. So if the trend
isn't significant, it's less than a point. In the rest
of the electorate is made up of left leaning urban independence,
then yes, that may push your margins. But voter registration
(04:36):
by party is far more accurate than polling. And the
thing is, you can backdate this and go back as
long as you have the data and find that the
trends correctly predict, especially the larger of the sample statewide registration,
especially it correctly predicts the trajectory of the next election.
And right now, every single meaningful state in the country
that registers voters by party is on a heavy Republican trend.
(04:58):
There's only one state in the entire country that registers
by party that is moving towards the Democrats. You know
which one that one is?
Speaker 1 (05:04):
Now, I was gonna say, I'm very curious.
Speaker 2 (05:07):
Now it's Colorado.
Speaker 1 (05:09):
Well that's because of the Californians it is.
Speaker 2 (05:12):
It's also Denver's dominance is two thirds of the vote
right up there in Denver and the surrounding county, so
it's pretty much overwhelmed the entire countryside.
Speaker 1 (05:21):
What's happening in Denver. That's different than other states that
have large cities but are migrating towards the Republican.
Speaker 2 (05:28):
And Denver doesn't have a big working class dynamic a
place like Pittsburgh. Of course, you're talking about steel mills
and refineries, and especially the surrounding areas Westmoreland, Washington Counties,
Armstrong Counties. Denver is more of the glass and concrete
financial place where you have a lot of white liberals
that are going there. You have a different mindset. You
have the drug culture in Denver is a big thing
(05:49):
that's going on there. You have all sorts of liberal movements,
feminism movements that drag the culture of the area to
the left. Of course, northwest of Denver you've got Boulder,
which fences in. So even the surrounding countryside Larimer County
that Bush carried in two thousand and four, those have
drifted as well. They're even eating into the margins in
El Paso County, Douglas County south of Denver. So really
(06:10):
Colorado is unless the Hispanic vote really grows and surges
to the right. Colorado is looking like a stronger Democrat
version than even Minnesota is probably a consistent ten point
Democrat state.
Speaker 1 (06:21):
Yeah, well, of course Minnesota, there's a pull out that
Trump's only three points behind.
Speaker 2 (06:26):
I agree with it. Number one. It's interesting because I've
never believed that the vice presidential selection does a lot
with moving the math on a state. So a lot
of people thought Josh Shapiro would move the math on Pennsylvania.
I'm not so sure it would have. It may have
created a narrative for what needs to be done for
Harris to win Pennsylvania, which looks impossible to me. But
with Minnesota, it's a very similar state in my analytics
(06:47):
to Virginia. I ballpart both of those states at about
three to five points just as a default setting, which
of course could be close enough with a turnout differential
to swing that. But Hennepin and Ramsey Counties are dominant counties,
and they're huge margins, and they're full of white liberals
and not a lot of blue collar population, so they
are very tough lifts for Trump because the outlying areas
are somewhat maxed out, especially in Minnesota. But this is
(07:09):
the reason we play the game. Same thing with college
football every Saturday, the reason they line up to play
the game.
Speaker 1 (07:14):
I couldn't help when you were talking about baseball. I
mean the huge impact ten or fifteen years ago of
really good mathematical modeling and how it changed the Oakland A's, etc.
I think baseball maybe the most numbers oriented of all
the sports.
Speaker 2 (07:30):
Definitely, Moneyball was something that I read it when it
first came out as a book in two thousand and two.
I thought it was fascinating and got a team out
there that's overshadowed by the San Francisco Giants. Of course,
now the Oakland A's are gone from Oakland. They're going
to Sacramento until they wind up in Las Vegas eventually.
But had to figure out how to get it done
on a shoe string budget, and they would draft first
rounders and give them a smaller signing bonus, and they
(07:51):
relied heavily on scouting. Likewise, remember the twenty sixteen Trump
campaign relied heavily on different types of data analytics. They
would go through the crowds at the rallies and they
would peg about how many people used to vote for Obama.
There you go, the two time Obama voter in the
Midwest being the reason Donald Trump won the presidency in
the first place. And when people can fully understand the
power of a coalition shift where their site starts voting
(08:12):
for you, it's not really a new thing. When you
were Speaker, Texas was still electing Democrats at the state level,
and some of the southern states were still putting Democrat
governors in there, and eventually that went all the way
down to the state houses. Texas still had a state
legislature that was Democrat run in the twenty first century.
Speaker 1 (08:29):
Based on your registration analysis, I noticed that in Sean
Spicer's podcast about ten days ago you said New Hampshire
ought to be considered the eighth battleground state. And I
just saw Paul yesterday that showed Trump up by one,
which I think shocked everybody.
Speaker 2 (08:44):
I sent that over to Sean, so I called back
in July when I was parceling out these states. In
my opinion, if you can't call thirty seven states red
or blue decisively, you have no business being involved in this.
And I think that actually points to a bigger problem
with the polarization in the country. I think that you know,
going back even into the sixties, sixties to the eighties,
there was only one state that never voted for the
(09:05):
other party, and that was Arizona. Every other state voted
for both parties between the sixties and the eighties. So
when you look at that equation, there's thirty seven states
that I predict will go rhet or blue by ten points,
ballpark or more. And then you have the seven decisive states,
which I have from a Trump perspective. So like I
expect Trump to carry North Carolina, I would only consider
it decisive if she got it. But we have seven
(09:26):
decisive states that I call from the Trump perspective, and
then we have six that I call leaners, and two
are Trump leaners less than ten North Carolina and Texas.
And then you got the four Democrat leaners, which I'm
calling New Mexico, Virginia, New Hampshire, and Minnesota. And we
can split that main state wide in Nebraska two but
four whole states, and now all four of them are
on Trump's radar, and they're looking at New Hampshire as
(09:48):
what I knew would be a decisive state. And the
reason it's decisive to me is because if you pair
it with Nevada, it makes ten electoral votes that could
make up for the loss of ten electoral votes somewhere else,
which is Wisconsin or Era, which is eleven.
Speaker 1 (10:01):
You have in your analysis ten out of the ten
counties in New Hampshire have shifted more Republican.
Speaker 2 (10:08):
It's gone from Democrat plus one point three percent advantage
in twenty twenty, which by my records is the only
time at a presidential election they've ever had a D
plus registration advantage. New Hampshire, of course, is the most
Republican of all New England states, even going back in time,
just like New Hampshire and Maine and Vermont were very
tough for Roosevelt even in the thirties, traditional Republican states.
(10:29):
Trump almost got it in twenty sixteen, but there was
a huge third party share of the vote there, and
some people still think that Clinton might have taken advantage
of those loopholes with the Massachusetts same day registration voters
without ID, but it was twenty six hundred votes between
the two and then in twenty twenty. You've got to
swing to the left and registrations. I do have New
Hampshire moving left organically, in twenty twenty, even though I
(10:49):
think it was boosted by the COVID election for sure.
But now when you look at the stats, all ten
counties have a right word shift. The shift in Rockingham
County is huge. New Hampshire is also weird because the
two most urban counties are two of the more Republican
counties in the state, Hillsboro and Rockingham. And then we
have the Republicans out to a lead with thirty nine
thousand plus registration four point four percent. Trump is run
(11:11):
on average thirty three thousand left of the registrations, so
the results in New Hampshire are always left of the registration.
Independence dragged the result to the left. So Trump will
not win the state by thirty nine thousand votes, It'll
be left of that. And the average has been thirty
three thousand, so that would give Trump a slight window
to win the state of about five thousand votes in
the most optimal circumstances. But either way, I can't see
(11:34):
either candidate winning the state by more than about fifteen
thousand votes. It would defy two plus decades worth of
predictive analytics.
Speaker 1 (11:41):
I just saw on analysis that in North Carolina the
Democrats are down two hundred and thirty seven thousand votes
in early voting. Let me just start a breathtaking number.
The Republicans arep some, but the really big story is
Democrats aren't turning.
Speaker 2 (11:57):
Out North Carolina this time in twenty twenty. I believe
the Democrats had a lead of about three hundred thousand
ballots at this point in early voting a week before
the election in twenty twenty, and Trump still won the
state by seventy five thousand. Now, it also bucked the
registration trends, which I've had my eyes on North Carolina
for a long time. But mail in voting expanded, especially
with no time to introduce it, it really blew the
(12:19):
numbers everywhere. So Western North Carolina was a big concern
with the hurricanes on, it looks like they're going to
get a pretty solid turnout out there. I think Trump
stands to gain about fifty to seventy thousand in margin
in the twenty nine counties west of the disaster line,
and that would be enough to blot out the gains
from either Charlotte or Raleigh that were seen in twenty twenty,
(12:39):
and neither of them appear to be on pace to
give the kind of Democrat margin that Biden got in
twenty twenty. So a week ago I saw a number
that there were sixty seven thousand fewer Black votes in
North Carolina than at the same point in twenty twenty,
and the organizers have taken note of that, and so
have Obviously the media is seen North Carolina. Now North
Carolina is only D plus one point four is D
(13:00):
plus nine and a half when Trump won it eight
years ago. So the trend has been heavy. The working
class areas in the southeast are heavily Republican trending. Trump
should do very well with what does come out for
the black and Latino vote relative to a standard Republican
So I think North Carolina looks like at least four points.
Speaker 1 (13:31):
The state that probably had the most attention is Pennsylvania.
And you make the point that sixty three out of
the sixty seven counties have actually grown more Republican since
twenty twenty. I mean, what's your sense of what's happening
in Pennsylvania.
Speaker 2 (13:46):
So the news is even better than that. They put
out the last voter registration update on Monday, and Chester
County moved to the right now too, So that's one
of the suburban counties.
Speaker 1 (13:56):
So sixty four out of sixty seven.
Speaker 2 (13:58):
Sixty four out of sixty seven, and the three that
are left shifted from twenty twenty. It's Cumberland County, it's
a traditional Republican stronghold in south central PA. Then you
have Delaware County right west of Philly, and then you
have Montgomery County to the northwest of Philly. Those were
traditional establishment type Republican counties in the eighties, nineties and
before that. Well, all of them in the last six
(14:19):
weeks have been hard Republicans shifted. Now since twenty twenty
they're left shifted. But arguably all sixty seven counties have
a Trump momentum, and most of Pennsylvania is working class.
I think it was James Carville that said Pennsylvania is
Philadelphia and Pittsburgh with Alabama in the middle. And I
think in some of these white working class counties in
western Pennsylvania you could be looking at Wyoming numbers for
(14:41):
Trump overhears. I think he'll probably exceed his white working
class margins this election. And obviously in twenty twenty it
was only eighty thousand plus ballots against an Irish Catholic
from Scranton, Pennsylvania that went by scrant and Joe and
with a mail in heavy election. Right now, the mail
in gap is about twenty percent sent better off for
the Republicans than it was at this point in twenty twenty.
(15:03):
The firewall they have is less than four hundred thousand
votes when it was one point one million four years ago.
Speaker 1 (15:09):
I was born in Harrisburg and silver family in the
Harrisburg area. Is my sense is that the more radical
the Democrats have been, the more the state has shifted,
because it's actually a pretty culturally conservative state.
Speaker 2 (15:23):
Absolutely. A big problem they have right now is Core Philadelphia.
Core Philadelphia has tens of thousands of fewer Democrat registrations
this time around than they did last time. I think
it's more than fifty thousand, and I think they're missing
about ninety three thousand male returns from where they were
in twenty twenty in Philadelphia County. So the urban decline
(15:43):
in raw vote dumping is way down in the urban
metros of the battleground states. And you could probably extrapolate
this and see the same thing in Detroit, because it's
evident already in Milwaukee County in Wisconsin.
Speaker 1 (15:55):
Don't you sense that she just can't get them to
turn out.
Speaker 2 (15:58):
There's a number of Democrats that are offended by the
fact that the party replaced the nominee without a democratic process.
That's another great irony is there is nothing democratic about
the Democrat Party. That is an issue there which they
completely usurped the nomination process. And you have to assume
that inside the left circles, the progressive circles, there's a
resentment about that because with an open nomination you would
(16:19):
have at least expected to have a crack at getting
your candidate in. It would be like if the Republicans
replaced Trump without the voters having to have a say.
I think you would have a big time turnout drag,
especially in conservative areas or working class areas. Romney got
suburban turnout in twenty twelve, but he did not get
working class turnout, and that's why Obama lost three hundred
thousand votes in Pennsylvania and Michigan each and Romney didn't
(16:42):
close the gap other than what Obama lost.
Speaker 1 (16:45):
I've been a little surprised at how much Ohio has
really moved to the Republicans, and I think Bernie Mario
may become the next Senator, just out of the underlying
current that every year gets more Republican. How do you
read Michigan and was so the.
Speaker 2 (17:00):
Whole region is on a glide path like that. Pennsylvania
has Ohio twenty sixteen vibes where you could get a
much larger than surprising, hey five points big margin. You know,
nobody thought of Iowa would go to Trump by nine
points in twenty sixteen. It went further to the right
for Trump than Texas did in twenty sixteen and in
twenty twenty. So Pennsylvania looks like it's becoming Ohio. Ohio
(17:21):
looks like it's becoming Indiana. Indiana appears to be becoming Kentucky.
In Kentucky's becoming West Virginia. So the way I read
Michigan is I read Pennsylvania first. Pennsylvania voter registration edge
is and it's just unbelievable. Trump ran six hundred and
five thousand votes to the right of the Democrat registration
advantage in twenty twenty. So he lost the quasi election,
(17:43):
as Richard Barris calls it, to Biden by eighty thousand,
but he was still six oh five right of their
registration advantage. If Trump went six hundred and five thousand
right of the current registration advantage of two hundred and
eighty one thousand, he would win Pennsylvania by more than
three hundred thousand votes. And it just so happens that
Echelon Insights just put out a pull before we got
on here showing Trump plus six, which would be about
(18:03):
four hundred thousand plus in margin.
Speaker 1 (18:05):
Cha also means we'll probably pick up the Senate seat.
Speaker 2 (18:07):
Right. So I don't know if I'm bullish enough to
go six points with the way Pennsylvania Soviet style ballot
collection efforts can go, but to me, it looks like
we probably have enough to get Pennsylvania. So Michigan for Trump.
Michigan was thirty three thousand votes left of PA in
twenty sixteen when it went to Trump, and then it
was seventy three thousand left in twenty twenty. There were issues, obviously,
(18:28):
but the average is fifty three thousand in the Trump age.
So if Pennsylvania is two hundred plus three hundred plus
to Trump, Michigan sits fifty to seventy thousand left of Pennsylvania,
it looks to me like the two are very closely correlated.
They've moved in the same direction in every election since
nineteen forty eight, and Pennsylvania has voted right of Michigan
(18:48):
in every election since ninety two. So I think that
you're likely to find Michigan in Trump's column if he
gets a big enough number in PA. Wisconsin is not
entirely related.
Speaker 1 (18:57):
Isn't the Muslim rebellion against Harris also an additional insurance policy.
Speaker 2 (19:03):
They're two to three percent of the vote in Michigan,
but that minority working class shift in southeastern Michigan is
a big deal, and the lower black turnout, the ones
that do turn out, vote bigger for Trump. That's big.
You have more white working class voters in Michigan than
you do in Pennsylvania. That's why sometimes people are wondering
if Michigan is going to wind upright of Pennsylvania Wisconsin.
(19:24):
On the other hand, it does correlate to the working
class shift in general. I think that New York to
me is a canary in the coal mine, and I've
been writing about that for some time now. I don't
think Trump is going to win New York, but I
have seen consistent polling where I'm not a big believer
in polls. But I look at the cross tabs, and
I look at the tight shot groups, and New York
from August October was consistently polling between twelve and fourteen points,
(19:47):
including from polsters that had the race at Biden plus
thirty in twenty twenty, and I saw inside ten a
couple times. And I've seen a few crazy polls lately
that are eighteen or so. But I have a feeling
that that numb is down in the low double digits,
if not potentially inside ten, because the New York state
wide races were inside ten points in twenty twenty, which
is a good sign. And when New York moves to
(20:09):
the right since nineteen fifty two, that's happened nine times
in presidential elections. It's moved right nine times in every
single time, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and New Jersey move right with it,
and almost every single time Wisconsin one exception in two
thousand and four and two exceptions in Minnesota. So that
entire working class set of states moves off of New
(20:30):
York and New York is absolutely set to go heavily
to the right.
Speaker 1 (20:33):
This year if Trump does anything close to as well
as illus recent polls even though he won't carry the state,
he probably will have a majority of the popular vote
in the country.
Speaker 2 (20:44):
It'll shift hundreds of thousands of popular votes. I mean,
New York could shift a million in margin. If we
have a number like that where Trump finishes ten twelve
points off the mark California, if he eats up ten
percent of margin, you're looking at a shift of a
million and a half votes. So that's definitely there. Blowout Florida.
Texas looks like it's going to be a bloodbath this year,
which is going to be a relief for a lot
(21:04):
of people who've been smelling the tighter margins in Texas
for ten years.
Speaker 1 (21:08):
Do you think Texas ends up staying Republican.
Speaker 2 (21:11):
I had been very pessimistic about Texas in the next
eight years, but I am very encouraged at least by
this cycle because we have a major movement of the
Latino working class. It used to be that people thought
that demographics racially and ethnically were going to doom Texas,
but Texas also has a lot of Latinos that have
been around since Texas before was even a state, so
(21:32):
they basically are voting like white Americans now. Anyway, but
Texas has had a big Latino shift. Eighty eight percent
of the vote is urban and suburban, so that is
a bit of a concern. So the suburban margins, it's
impossible to maintain forty plus point margins when you start
getting that kind of population density. So the key to
me is getting into Houston proper, Dallas proper in denting
(21:53):
those Democrat margins. So if that can be done successfully
in a program to sustain it can happen, then you
can train Texas like Florida. There's no reason not to
believe that. But getting control of these urban areas. Harris
County is extremely corrupt. It is pretty much the Chicago
of the South, if not Atlanta, but Harris County is
very bad. Prior to this, what looks like Trump pushing
(22:13):
Texas back off to the right this year, I had
thought Texas could be vulnerable by twenty thirty two.
Speaker 1 (22:19):
The scale of the Republican shift in Florida is unbelievable.
Speaker 2 (22:24):
It's going to be a nineteen eighty eight margin. It's
going to be the biggest margin since eighty eight. Florida
has gone from D plus one and twenty twenty to
R plus eight in twenty twenty four. And you know,
most people thought the twenty twenty two midterms that Trump
couldn't approach Rubio de Santus numbers, which were sixteen to
nineteen points. Right now, turnout in Florida is almost R
plus twelve. The Republicans have a three quarter of a
(22:45):
million ballot advantage in Florida, and election day is still
going to trend Republicans. So Trump could be looking at
numbers in Florida between twelve and fifteen points, and that
is going to be truly impressive. And Florida, Michigan, and
Pennsylvania all moved together in every election since nineteen fifty
two except for the safest and most secure election of
all time, which was in twenty twenty.
Speaker 1 (23:05):
I think there was a headline the other day in
the Miami paper that the Republicans were now out voting
the Democrats and Miami Dade.
Speaker 2 (23:13):
Miami's R plus five today. Total turnout is R plus five.
The county is D plus three and a half, but
it's R plus five turnout as of today. So Trump
is going to flip Miami Dade County. So the Republican
nominee for president has carried Miami Dade County seven times,
so in nineteen twenty eight, fifty two, fifty six, seventy two,
eighty eighty four, eighty eight, and all seven times won
(23:35):
the presidency or retained the presidency.
Speaker 1 (23:37):
But it's just a huge shift. That's not going to
be that quest.
Speaker 2 (23:41):
It's not even close. Florida was a one point race
between an ice cream cone and a kick in the
neck for so many years. And you know, even in
twenty twenty, Biden led in most of the polls in Florida.
I didn't think Florida would go to Biden based on
the registration shifts. But right now all sixty seven counties
are more Republican than they were in twenty twenty. There's
been a voter roll perge. There's also been a Pursi
in New Hampshire, and a purge in Nevada, and a
(24:03):
Persie in Philadelphia County and a Persian in Maricopa County.
It's funny to me how voter role purges always only
hurt one party.
Speaker 1 (24:10):
YEP, which explains why they hated.
Speaker 2 (24:13):
One hundred percent. Michigan is the most corrupt of all
the battleground states. This here eighty three and a half
percent of Michigan's population total population is registered to vote.
Only seventy seven percent of any population is over the
age of eighteen, So there's at least six hundred thousand
people that are on Michigan's voter rolls that don't belong there.
Just based on simple age splits.
Speaker 1 (24:33):
Does that lead you believe that it's possible that some
of the votes will be cash this year will not
be actually people who are living.
Speaker 2 (24:41):
Absolutely, it's not just possible, it's one hundred percent likely.
Now the extent of how much that will go on
If Trump pulls Pennsylvania on an early night, pulls Georgia pools,
North Carolina, pools, Pensylvania, that's two seventy right there, without Wisconsin, Arizona, Nevada.
So I don't think that Michigan will be riddled with
cheating if Trump puts an early nightcap on things. I
(25:01):
don't think it's worth getting caught. I don't think it's
worth dealing with the other fall out of that, because
Michigan to me looks like a three to four point
Trump state right now.
Speaker 1 (25:08):
You have made a comment at which I'm intrigued by
the UC daval County, which is Jacksonville, as sort of
a model for Georgia. What's your reasoning.
Speaker 2 (25:19):
When I was doing my forecasting for Georgia, I prefer
states that register voters by party, because then I get
down at the county levels and I produce a trend
analysis which when you look at the margin of votes
one by, ultimately we're talking about number of votes one by.
Each county has a certain amount of votes, just like
each cloud has a certain amount of rain, and I
prefer to get granular like that. Now, some states like
Georgia or Texas or Wisconsin don't register voters by party,
(25:44):
so I have to infer if I can. And for Wisconsin,
a great comp is Iowa. They move together and they've
never been more than nine point eight points apart since
nineteen sixty. But states like Georgia. You know, I thought
logically that North Carolina would potentially be the for Georgia,
but it's not. In fact, North Carolina voted to the
right of Georgia last time for the first time since
(26:05):
nineteen eighty eight, so now they're moving in opposite directions.
But Florida, not the state, but Duval County, the home
of Jacksonville, I started running the numbers on that. First off,
they have an almost identical racial and ethnic split. The black, white,
and Hispanic populations are almost identical to the number what
the racial demographics are. Of course, you have an urban
(26:27):
area of Duval County, you have rural, you have suburbs,
and then you have of course the swing since two
thousand and four. So in four both of those Duval County,
Florida and Georgia backed George Bush by a lot. I
think it was about sixteen points in each, and then
they swung to the left. In eight they both backed McCain,
but very narrowly. Duvall was less than two points, Georgia
(26:48):
was five points all right, And then we had in
twenty twelve both of them moved back to the right.
So Duval was a little more comfortable for Romney and
Georgia was seven and a half almost eight points for
mitt Romney. And then in twenty sixteen they both swung
left and hung with Trump, but just by a little
bit in Duval and by five in Georgia. And in
twenty twenty they swung to the left. Now I don't
know how much of that was an organic swing and
(27:08):
how much of it was the COVID election, but Duval
flipped narrowly by three point eight percent towards Biden, and
then Georgia flipped to Biden as well. So they've moved
to the same direction every election, and they moved by
about the same number. And this year duvall is shifted
from D plus five point nine to D plus one
point nine and the current turnout in Duval is R
(27:30):
plus three point six. So Duval appears to be heading
for a Trump win by standard Republican margins. And if
Georgia sticks with the swing that we've had since four eight, twelve,
sixteen twenty so for the last five elections, then Georgia
is going to be running back right with Duval. And
that pegged me for Georgia at a Trump margin of
five point six percent.
Speaker 1 (27:50):
My sense was around five percent. The people I trust
most watching it. The one other state I have to
(28:12):
ask about Gus has been intriguing. How much has shifted
this year is Nevada. I mean, Clark County was just collapsing,
which is Las Vegas. And as Democrats aren't kiring Clark
County by a big margin, they have no hope.
Speaker 2 (28:26):
The thing that people have to understand about Nevada is
seven out of eight votes come from two counties, Washo,
which is Metro Areno, and then Clark, which of course
is Metro Las Vegas seven out of eight votes. So
the one out of eight votes that come from the
other fifteen county equivalents are massively Trump margins. And I
ran them on a county trend based on registration, and
I think he's only got about another ten thousand of
(28:46):
margin to squeeze out of those fifteen counties, So you
have to make hay in Clark and Washoe counties. And
this could potentially, if it's extrapolated, it could speak to
the strength of Trump in core urban areas, which of
course Arizona being one of them, Maricopa County right next door.
But right now, you have an R plus five turnout
statewide in Nevada. The state itself is D plus one.
(29:08):
Their registration advantage has been shrinking since Obama's second run,
and Trump has always run well to the right of
the Democrat voter registration in Nevada. So I think that
Nevada is pretty much baked at this point. I don't
think that she has a chance to get back in
the fight. I really don't even think that the ruling
from last week is going to butt that. And here's
another important thing I'd like to talk about sports betting.
(29:30):
I'm not a big better, but I used to play
with those daily lineup drafts in baseball to try to
put the brain on baseball. And there's a pick called
the chalk pick. So I may not like Mike Trout
in the lineup today because I have a hunch, but
he always hits left handers, and here's his stats against lefties,
so if you play him enough times, he's going to deliver.
So the chalk pick is that Nevada has never voted
(29:53):
Republican in Arizona voted Democrat in a presidential election. It's
never happened in Arizona has been a state since nineteen twelve.
So if we think Nevada is going to Trump, then
one hundred and twelve years of history suggests that Arizona
is going to Trump too. So I like to make
parallel assumptions like that. And now there's the first time
for everything, but I don't think it's this year.
Speaker 1 (30:12):
Do you think the problems in a Maricopa which actually
we now have a majority don't we.
Speaker 2 (30:17):
Maricopa County has one hundred and eighty one thousand Republican advantage.
It was one hundred thousand four years ago. So you
know a lot of these people thinking that party switchers
are going to save them. I mean, you'd have to
believe that Arizona went from one hundred and thirty thousand
Republican lead to three hundred thousand just so they could
vote more Democrat in all fifteen counties.
Speaker 1 (30:35):
We may pick up the Senate seat there based on
the most recent Poland.
Speaker 2 (30:39):
I saw Carrie Lake at an event a couple weeks
ago and she said that she was only running two
points behind Trump. Now the media swings wildly. I saw
a Gyeago plus fifteen poll the other day, which is
laughable to me. But you know, she's definitely running behind Trump.
We don't know how much. And I think that the
discord there is probably the Latino working class. And the
reason I believe that is because I went through Reuben
(30:59):
Gegos social media. I have not found one single foul
word about Donald Trump all year. So it tells me
that they're sharing voters, just like you have Bob Casey
and Slotkin up in the industrial Midwest, not wanting to
run a foul Trump supporters.
Speaker 1 (31:12):
I thought one of the telling examples of how the
momentum is built is the number of Democrats now who've
always liked Donald Trump. They've always found it easy to
work with him.
Speaker 2 (31:22):
Yeah, and the newspapers that won't come out and endorse does.
Speaker 1 (31:25):
That actually have any impact? Historically they would have been
endorsing Harris. Now none of them are endorsing.
Speaker 2 (31:31):
So the Washington Post is what I like to look at.
They did not endorse Ducaucus in eighty eight, but they
endorsed Bill Clinton in ninety two, and then every Democrat
through twenty twenty. So every election ninety two, ninety six, two, four, eight, twelve, sixteen,
and twenty and they didn't endorse Harris. Well, they've endorsed
three losing Democrats since they began their endorsement street. They
(31:52):
endorsed Gore who lost, Kerry who lost in Clinton who lost,
and Biden who won by forty twenty nine hundred and
eighteen ballots in three states. So why is that they're
not willing to endorse a Democrat this time who could lose?
It's happened before, it suggests to me that maybe things
aren't as close as things have been led to believe.
Speaker 1 (32:09):
Tell me from here about Captain Ky's Corner, because it's
on substact. It strikes me that the work you do
is really, really interesting. So what do people get if
they go to Captain K's Corner.
Speaker 2 (32:21):
Well, Captain Ky's Corner. I started it two years ago.
I was one of these names if you look me up.
I don't have a lot of nice things written about
me in the media. I don't necessarily consider myself an
election denier. I would call myself more of a fraud affirmer.
And Bob Dole, of course, wrote in his own farewell
letter to America that he wondered if Heaven would be
anything like Kansas, and if like in Chicago, he could vote,
(32:41):
if he could vote from Chicago. So I thought it
was pretty funny, and it speaks to these distances of this.
Now I can language the complaints of the twenty twenty
election in a way that forces people who are skeptical
about those sort of things to engage and think. I
think that the twenty twenty election was part organic, some
of it was contrived by the media, some of them
because of the virus that was put out there and overhyped,
(33:03):
and then other parts because the state legislatures allowed their
duties to be usurped by executives and secretaries of state
and created what Richard Barris I like to use the
term quasi elections. And we have states where the trends
are no longer discernible because the integrity of the election
has been completely blown up. And I think that a
lot of the numbers I'm seeing now not only confirmed
Trump momentum this year, but confirm my assumptions from the
(33:25):
twenty twenty election. So a lot of my analyzes are
built on where I believe elections to be today. Most
of my stuff is elections focused. Sometimes I get into
the weeds about other things. But I believe that automatic
voter registration is the death wish of fair elections. Why
do I believe that because in twenty twenty there were
twenty states that had automatic voter registration. Biden won eighteen
(33:46):
of them and the count was two hundred and forty
three electoral votes to nine. So once you blow up
the voter roles, then you have more entries to which
you can assign mail in ballots, and the longer period
of early voting. You have for these mail in ballots
to be distributed, to be filled out and then harvested
and then turned back in because ultimately, if somebody knows
how to trend to analyze counties like I do, they
(34:07):
know what the possible extent of a GOP margin is
in all of these different counties, so they know if
they get X amount of ballots that they will win.
So I think that election rigging has taken on a
new front with all the sophisticated data and technology and
then the loosening of the law. Rank choice voting is
another great example. When your state is trending hard read
it gives you one last election where your Democrat will
(34:29):
win because usually when the Republicans flip the state, they
get about forty nine percent of the vote the first
time they flip it. Right, Well, that wouldn't be sufficient
to flip your state, so you get one more shot.
Captain K's Corner explores a lot of these. I go
into the data and I leave it open for people
to criticize, and I found counties that cannot confirm to
me that some of their precincts did not have more
than one hundred percent turnout in the twenty twenty election,
(34:51):
just based on the way they organize their data.
Speaker 1 (34:54):
The intensity of rejecting the dishonesty of the twenty twenty
eleve on the left. I've got annoyed with that. I
was the guy who's normally very rational, and it was
like I was violating his religious belief system.
Speaker 2 (35:09):
Well, they're going to be election deniers, heif these trends
hold up the kind of questions I'll ask, so Arizona.
When I look at Arizona, Arizona's the most loyal presidential
state in modern political history. So in forty eight it
voted for Harry Truman, and so did Maricopa County. And
then in fifty two it flipped Eisenhower and so did
Maricopa County. And then from nineteen fifty two through twenty
(35:30):
sixteen it voted for every single Republican presidential candidate except
Bob Dolan ninety six. And the only reason Dole didn't
win it is because that was the year that Perot
did cost the Republican He almost got bushed in ninety two,
but he got Dolan ninety six, all right, Maricopa County.
Even though Dolt lost, Arizona still went to Dole. So
Maricopa was read from fifty two through twenty sixteen, and
Trump won it in twenty sixteen with fewer votes than
(35:52):
Mitt Romney did in twenty twelve. So in twenty twenty,
Trump's gains in Arizona statewide more than four hundred thousand
net new votes, the largest Republican gain in one election
cycle in the history of the most loyal Republican state,
and in Maricopa County, a gain of a quarter million,
the largest Republican gain in the history of the most
loyal urban Republican county in the United States, only to
(36:13):
be outdone by a Joe Biden gain that was three
times larger than any gain they ever had in Maricopa
County in calling the state with one percent of the
vote county. So, no, it doesn't make sense, and nobody
really wants to get to the bottom of how this happened.
But the answer is flooded voter roles, ballot harvesting in
an extensive period of time to contribute these ballots, and
(36:34):
an overarching media narrative. The thing that Trump is truly
commanding this year is the media narrative. I believe he
had the vote in twenty twenty, he did not have
the narrative. This time he appears to have them both.
Speaker 1 (36:46):
That's all amazing. I hope we get a chance to
continue this friendship and to continue this kind of work.
You are remarkable. I want to thank you for joining me.
I want to remind our listeners that they can find
your reporting and all the latest elections news on substack
at Skeshel dot substack dot com. We'll have that on
our show page. But I really appreciate you taking this
(37:08):
time to talk with us. This has been very enlightening.
Speaker 2 (37:12):
Likewise, I appreciate the opportunity to come on with your audience.
I've met a lot of new audiences here in the
last couple of weeks. I encourage everybody to keep your
eyes open, do not go to sleep on election night,
make sure you get out there and vote. Make sure
you take your friends that are like minded to vote.
This is an important time and we're going to have
to get out there and do all the fundamentals right.
So thank you so much for the invite, Miss Speaker.
Speaker 1 (37:33):
Thank you to my guest, Seth Keshel. You can get
a link to a substack on our show page at
Newtsworld dot com. News World is produced by Gangwish three
sixty and iHeartMedia. Our executive producer is Guardnsei Sloan. Our
researcher is Rachel Peterson. The artwork for the show was
created by Steve Penley. Special thanks to the team at
Ganwish three sixty. If you've been enjoying newts World, I
(37:56):
hope you'll go to Apple Podcasts and both rate us
with five stars and give us a review so others
can learn what it's all about. Right now, listeners of
Newtsworld can sign up for my three freeweekly columns at
gingristree sixty dot com slash newsletter. I'm Newt Gingrich. This
is Nutsworld.
On this episode of NEWTS World. As election day nears,
I wanted to have someone on who's taking a unique
look at polling data in this election cycle. He's been
studying the swing states and methodically going through county by
county to understand how each state will perform. He's been
looking at low propensity voters, independent voters, and his analyzed
(00:26):
early vote. He is one of the most knowledgeable pollsters
on the upcoming election, and he approaches it from a
very unique perspective. So I'm really pleased to welcome my guests,
pollster Seth Keshel. He is on Telegram and on sub sect.
His site is Captain Kay's Corner. Seth, welcome and thank
(00:57):
you for joining me on Newtsworld.
Speaker 2 (00:58):
Well, thank you so much, miss Speaker. It's like we
were talking about before I jumped on. It's an honor
to get to collaborate with you, especially as we approach
a very important day.
Speaker 1 (01:06):
Well, I have to ask you, how did your military
intelligence background help you as you thought about the election
polling business.
Speaker 2 (01:14):
So I've always been a numbers guy. I'm a baseball
guy at heart. God did not give me the ability
to be a great athlete, but he gave me the
mind and appreciate the numbers. And I was a baseball
analyst in college at Old Miss and wound up joining
Army RGC, following the family tradition in the military, wound
up as an Army intelligence officer a tactical level. Never
went beyond the rank of captain, just served six years.
(01:36):
And my job requirements were to understand lots of data points,
lots of events over a massive expanse. So we're talking
about an area of the size of Georgia and western Afghanistan,
and to be able to boil that down into digestible
pieces of information to give to my commander to inform
his decision making. So we have fifty different states. We
have Washington, d C. We have two split districts. We
have more than fifty separate elections that contribute five hundred
(01:59):
and thirty eight elector votes, and they all balance in
different directions, and they have different variables and different trends racial, ethnic,
socioeconomic trends, and I'm able to balance and understand these.
I can spot inaccuracies in media reporting and also narratives.
And in twenty sixteen, when Ohio was given to Trump
by the media two months out, and it was going
(02:19):
to be five plus. I knew right away there was
no way that that matched up with a Clinton plus
ten or twelve point popular vote map. Ohio had only
missed the presidential winner twice since eighteen ninety six. So
I went back, deconstructed the map, learned about voter registration
by party trend, and figured out pretty quickly that Trump
was on pace to grab Pennsylvania, Michigan, and I wound
up calling all fifty states right in twenty sixteen. And
(02:41):
one of the reasons we have issues with twenty twenty
based on the analysis is because it defied every single trend, indicator, bellweather,
and predictor known to political analysts since the eighteen hundreds.
Speaker 1 (02:50):
How do you explain that, Well.
Speaker 2 (02:52):
You know, it's about ballots. I did an event in
Los Angeles in January with Brad Parskale, who used to
work with the Trump campaign. First time I'd met the guy,
and being exposed to so many different viewpoints allows you
to understand what other people are seeing out there. And
he referred to certain states as messaging states, like Florida, Texas.
Florida got anti communist message, You're going to pull Florida
easily these days Texas big energy message, freedom message. But
(03:17):
other states like Pennsylvania he referred to as ballot states
where the messaging no longer matters as much. Now Trump's
messaging plays up there with the working class message, but
collecting ballots is what has to happen. So getting in
there and throw in a wrench in the screws of
the mail in agenda is important. Getting the early vote
out is important. But that's where the twenty twenty election broke.
(03:38):
All the rules went around all the legislators, which have
the authority, the only authority to change election law. So
really you could make the case that most of the
twenty twenty election was not even conducted under a legal premise.
But those were what were responsible for generating this low
propensity turnout, ensuring that everybody's casting a vote, rather than
having the traditional political indicators of enthusiasm, which Trump had
(03:59):
an enthusiasm gap over Biden and probably an even bigger
one over Harris this year.
Speaker 1 (04:04):
The two things one is that voter registration tells you
a lot, and the other is there can be mechanisms
that overwhelm the registration.
Speaker 2 (04:16):
Correct usually if it's consistent enough and strong enough, it's
very hard to buck against the voter registration trend. For
the data in Pennsylvania, I can find one county that
sometimes bucks, and that's Alleghany County. So if the trend
isn't significant, it's less than a point. In the rest
of the electorate is made up of left leaning urban independence,
then yes, that may push your margins. But voter registration
(04:36):
by party is far more accurate than polling. And the
thing is, you can backdate this and go back as
long as you have the data and find that the
trends correctly predict, especially the larger of the sample statewide registration,
especially it correctly predicts the trajectory of the next election.
And right now, every single meaningful state in the country
that registers voters by party is on a heavy Republican trend.
(04:58):
There's only one state in the entire country that registers
by party that is moving towards the Democrats. You know
which one that one is?
Speaker 1 (05:04):
Now, I was gonna say, I'm very curious.
Speaker 2 (05:07):
Now it's Colorado.
Speaker 1 (05:09):
Well that's because of the Californians it is.
Speaker 2 (05:12):
It's also Denver's dominance is two thirds of the vote
right up there in Denver and the surrounding county, so
it's pretty much overwhelmed the entire countryside.
Speaker 1 (05:21):
What's happening in Denver. That's different than other states that
have large cities but are migrating towards the Republican.
Speaker 2 (05:28):
And Denver doesn't have a big working class dynamic a
place like Pittsburgh. Of course, you're talking about steel mills
and refineries, and especially the surrounding areas Westmoreland, Washington Counties,
Armstrong Counties. Denver is more of the glass and concrete
financial place where you have a lot of white liberals
that are going there. You have a different mindset. You
have the drug culture in Denver is a big thing
(05:49):
that's going on there. You have all sorts of liberal movements,
feminism movements that drag the culture of the area to
the left. Of course, northwest of Denver you've got Boulder,
which fences in. So even the surrounding countryside Larimer County
that Bush carried in two thousand and four, those have
drifted as well. They're even eating into the margins in
El Paso County, Douglas County south of Denver. So really
(06:10):
Colorado is unless the Hispanic vote really grows and surges
to the right. Colorado is looking like a stronger Democrat
version than even Minnesota is probably a consistent ten point
Democrat state.
Speaker 1 (06:21):
Yeah, well, of course Minnesota, there's a pull out that
Trump's only three points behind.
Speaker 2 (06:26):
I agree with it. Number one. It's interesting because I've
never believed that the vice presidential selection does a lot
with moving the math on a state. So a lot
of people thought Josh Shapiro would move the math on Pennsylvania.
I'm not so sure it would have. It may have
created a narrative for what needs to be done for
Harris to win Pennsylvania, which looks impossible to me. But
with Minnesota, it's a very similar state in my analytics
(06:47):
to Virginia. I ballpart both of those states at about
three to five points just as a default setting, which
of course could be close enough with a turnout differential
to swing that. But Hennepin and Ramsey Counties are dominant counties,
and they're huge margins, and they're full of white liberals
and not a lot of blue collar population, so they
are very tough lifts for Trump because the outlying areas
are somewhat maxed out, especially in Minnesota. But this is
(07:09):
the reason we play the game. Same thing with college
football every Saturday, the reason they line up to play
the game.
Speaker 1 (07:14):
I couldn't help when you were talking about baseball. I
mean the huge impact ten or fifteen years ago of
really good mathematical modeling and how it changed the Oakland A's, etc.
I think baseball maybe the most numbers oriented of all
the sports.
Speaker 2 (07:30):
Definitely, Moneyball was something that I read it when it
first came out as a book in two thousand and two.
I thought it was fascinating and got a team out
there that's overshadowed by the San Francisco Giants. Of course,
now the Oakland A's are gone from Oakland. They're going
to Sacramento until they wind up in Las Vegas eventually.
But had to figure out how to get it done
on a shoe string budget, and they would draft first
rounders and give them a smaller signing bonus, and they
(07:51):
relied heavily on scouting. Likewise, remember the twenty sixteen Trump
campaign relied heavily on different types of data analytics. They
would go through the crowds at the rallies and they
would peg about how many people used to vote for Obama.
There you go, the two time Obama voter in the
Midwest being the reason Donald Trump won the presidency in
the first place. And when people can fully understand the
power of a coalition shift where their site starts voting
(08:12):
for you, it's not really a new thing. When you
were Speaker, Texas was still electing Democrats at the state level,
and some of the southern states were still putting Democrat
governors in there, and eventually that went all the way
down to the state houses. Texas still had a state
legislature that was Democrat run in the twenty first century.
Speaker 1 (08:29):
Based on your registration analysis, I noticed that in Sean
Spicer's podcast about ten days ago you said New Hampshire
ought to be considered the eighth battleground state. And I
just saw Paul yesterday that showed Trump up by one,
which I think shocked everybody.
Speaker 2 (08:44):
I sent that over to Sean, so I called back
in July when I was parceling out these states. In
my opinion, if you can't call thirty seven states red
or blue decisively, you have no business being involved in this.
And I think that actually points to a bigger problem
with the polarization in the country. I think that you know,
going back even into the sixties, sixties to the eighties,
there was only one state that never voted for the
(09:05):
other party, and that was Arizona. Every other state voted
for both parties between the sixties and the eighties. So
when you look at that equation, there's thirty seven states
that I predict will go rhet or blue by ten points,
ballpark or more. And then you have the seven decisive states,
which I have from a Trump perspective. So like I
expect Trump to carry North Carolina, I would only consider
it decisive if she got it. But we have seven
(09:26):
decisive states that I call from the Trump perspective, and
then we have six that I call leaners, and two
are Trump leaners less than ten North Carolina and Texas.
And then you got the four Democrat leaners, which I'm
calling New Mexico, Virginia, New Hampshire, and Minnesota. And we
can split that main state wide in Nebraska two but
four whole states, and now all four of them are
on Trump's radar, and they're looking at New Hampshire as
(09:48):
what I knew would be a decisive state. And the
reason it's decisive to me is because if you pair
it with Nevada, it makes ten electoral votes that could
make up for the loss of ten electoral votes somewhere else,
which is Wisconsin or Era, which is eleven.
Speaker 1 (10:01):
You have in your analysis ten out of the ten
counties in New Hampshire have shifted more Republican.
Speaker 2 (10:08):
It's gone from Democrat plus one point three percent advantage
in twenty twenty, which by my records is the only
time at a presidential election they've ever had a D
plus registration advantage. New Hampshire, of course, is the most
Republican of all New England states, even going back in time,
just like New Hampshire and Maine and Vermont were very
tough for Roosevelt even in the thirties, traditional Republican states.
(10:29):
Trump almost got it in twenty sixteen, but there was
a huge third party share of the vote there, and
some people still think that Clinton might have taken advantage
of those loopholes with the Massachusetts same day registration voters
without ID, but it was twenty six hundred votes between
the two and then in twenty twenty. You've got to
swing to the left and registrations. I do have New
Hampshire moving left organically, in twenty twenty, even though I
(10:49):
think it was boosted by the COVID election for sure.
But now when you look at the stats, all ten
counties have a right word shift. The shift in Rockingham
County is huge. New Hampshire is also weird because the
two most urban counties are two of the more Republican
counties in the state, Hillsboro and Rockingham. And then we
have the Republicans out to a lead with thirty nine
thousand plus registration four point four percent. Trump is run
(11:11):
on average thirty three thousand left of the registrations, so
the results in New Hampshire are always left of the registration.
Independence dragged the result to the left. So Trump will
not win the state by thirty nine thousand votes, It'll
be left of that. And the average has been thirty
three thousand, so that would give Trump a slight window
to win the state of about five thousand votes in
the most optimal circumstances. But either way, I can't see
(11:34):
either candidate winning the state by more than about fifteen
thousand votes. It would defy two plus decades worth of
predictive analytics.
Speaker 1 (11:41):
I just saw on analysis that in North Carolina the
Democrats are down two hundred and thirty seven thousand votes
in early voting. Let me just start a breathtaking number.
The Republicans arep some, but the really big story is
Democrats aren't turning.
Speaker 2 (11:57):
Out North Carolina this time in twenty twenty. I believe
the Democrats had a lead of about three hundred thousand
ballots at this point in early voting a week before
the election in twenty twenty, and Trump still won the
state by seventy five thousand. Now, it also bucked the
registration trends, which I've had my eyes on North Carolina
for a long time. But mail in voting expanded, especially
with no time to introduce it, it really blew the
(12:19):
numbers everywhere. So Western North Carolina was a big concern
with the hurricanes on, it looks like they're going to
get a pretty solid turnout out there. I think Trump
stands to gain about fifty to seventy thousand in margin
in the twenty nine counties west of the disaster line,
and that would be enough to blot out the gains
from either Charlotte or Raleigh that were seen in twenty twenty,
(12:39):
and neither of them appear to be on pace to
give the kind of Democrat margin that Biden got in
twenty twenty. So a week ago I saw a number
that there were sixty seven thousand fewer Black votes in
North Carolina than at the same point in twenty twenty,
and the organizers have taken note of that, and so
have Obviously the media is seen North Carolina. Now North
Carolina is only D plus one point four is D
(13:00):
plus nine and a half when Trump won it eight
years ago. So the trend has been heavy. The working
class areas in the southeast are heavily Republican trending. Trump
should do very well with what does come out for
the black and Latino vote relative to a standard Republican
So I think North Carolina looks like at least four points.
Speaker 1 (13:31):
The state that probably had the most attention is Pennsylvania.
And you make the point that sixty three out of
the sixty seven counties have actually grown more Republican since
twenty twenty. I mean, what's your sense of what's happening
in Pennsylvania.
Speaker 2 (13:46):
So the news is even better than that. They put
out the last voter registration update on Monday, and Chester
County moved to the right now too, So that's one
of the suburban counties.
Speaker 1 (13:56):
So sixty four out of sixty seven.
Speaker 2 (13:58):
Sixty four out of sixty seven, and the three that
are left shifted from twenty twenty. It's Cumberland County, it's
a traditional Republican stronghold in south central PA. Then you
have Delaware County right west of Philly, and then you
have Montgomery County to the northwest of Philly. Those were
traditional establishment type Republican counties in the eighties, nineties and
before that. Well, all of them in the last six
(14:19):
weeks have been hard Republicans shifted. Now since twenty twenty
they're left shifted. But arguably all sixty seven counties have
a Trump momentum, and most of Pennsylvania is working class.
I think it was James Carville that said Pennsylvania is
Philadelphia and Pittsburgh with Alabama in the middle. And I
think in some of these white working class counties in
western Pennsylvania you could be looking at Wyoming numbers for
(14:41):
Trump overhears. I think he'll probably exceed his white working
class margins this election. And obviously in twenty twenty it
was only eighty thousand plus ballots against an Irish Catholic
from Scranton, Pennsylvania that went by scrant and Joe and
with a mail in heavy election. Right now, the mail
in gap is about twenty percent sent better off for
the Republicans than it was at this point in twenty twenty.
(15:03):
The firewall they have is less than four hundred thousand
votes when it was one point one million four years ago.
Speaker 1 (15:09):
I was born in Harrisburg and silver family in the
Harrisburg area. Is my sense is that the more radical
the Democrats have been, the more the state has shifted,
because it's actually a pretty culturally conservative state.
Speaker 2 (15:23):
Absolutely. A big problem they have right now is Core Philadelphia.
Core Philadelphia has tens of thousands of fewer Democrat registrations
this time around than they did last time. I think
it's more than fifty thousand, and I think they're missing
about ninety three thousand male returns from where they were
in twenty twenty in Philadelphia County. So the urban decline
(15:43):
in raw vote dumping is way down in the urban
metros of the battleground states. And you could probably extrapolate
this and see the same thing in Detroit, because it's
evident already in Milwaukee County in Wisconsin.
Speaker 1 (15:55):
Don't you sense that she just can't get them to
turn out.
Speaker 2 (15:58):
There's a number of Democrats that are offended by the
fact that the party replaced the nominee without a democratic process.
That's another great irony is there is nothing democratic about
the Democrat Party. That is an issue there which they
completely usurped the nomination process. And you have to assume
that inside the left circles, the progressive circles, there's a
resentment about that because with an open nomination you would
(16:19):
have at least expected to have a crack at getting
your candidate in. It would be like if the Republicans
replaced Trump without the voters having to have a say.
I think you would have a big time turnout drag,
especially in conservative areas or working class areas. Romney got
suburban turnout in twenty twelve, but he did not get
working class turnout, and that's why Obama lost three hundred
thousand votes in Pennsylvania and Michigan each and Romney didn't
(16:42):
close the gap other than what Obama lost.
Speaker 1 (16:45):
I've been a little surprised at how much Ohio has
really moved to the Republicans, and I think Bernie Mario
may become the next Senator, just out of the underlying
current that every year gets more Republican. How do you
read Michigan and was so the.
Speaker 2 (17:00):
Whole region is on a glide path like that. Pennsylvania
has Ohio twenty sixteen vibes where you could get a
much larger than surprising, hey five points big margin. You know,
nobody thought of Iowa would go to Trump by nine
points in twenty sixteen. It went further to the right
for Trump than Texas did in twenty sixteen and in
twenty twenty. So Pennsylvania looks like it's becoming Ohio. Ohio
(17:21):
looks like it's becoming Indiana. Indiana appears to be becoming Kentucky.
In Kentucky's becoming West Virginia. So the way I read
Michigan is I read Pennsylvania first. Pennsylvania voter registration edge
is and it's just unbelievable. Trump ran six hundred and
five thousand votes to the right of the Democrat registration
advantage in twenty twenty. So he lost the quasi election,
(17:43):
as Richard Barris calls it, to Biden by eighty thousand,
but he was still six oh five right of their
registration advantage. If Trump went six hundred and five thousand
right of the current registration advantage of two hundred and
eighty one thousand, he would win Pennsylvania by more than
three hundred thousand votes. And it just so happens that
Echelon Insights just put out a pull before we got
on here showing Trump plus six, which would be about
(18:03):
four hundred thousand plus in margin.
Speaker 1 (18:05):
Cha also means we'll probably pick up the Senate seat.
Speaker 2 (18:07):
Right. So I don't know if I'm bullish enough to
go six points with the way Pennsylvania Soviet style ballot
collection efforts can go, but to me, it looks like
we probably have enough to get Pennsylvania. So Michigan for Trump.
Michigan was thirty three thousand votes left of PA in
twenty sixteen when it went to Trump, and then it
was seventy three thousand left in twenty twenty. There were issues, obviously,
(18:28):
but the average is fifty three thousand in the Trump age.
So if Pennsylvania is two hundred plus three hundred plus
to Trump, Michigan sits fifty to seventy thousand left of Pennsylvania,
it looks to me like the two are very closely correlated.
They've moved in the same direction in every election since
nineteen forty eight, and Pennsylvania has voted right of Michigan
(18:48):
in every election since ninety two. So I think that
you're likely to find Michigan in Trump's column if he
gets a big enough number in PA. Wisconsin is not
entirely related.
Speaker 1 (18:57):
Isn't the Muslim rebellion against Harris also an additional insurance policy.
Speaker 2 (19:03):
They're two to three percent of the vote in Michigan,
but that minority working class shift in southeastern Michigan is
a big deal, and the lower black turnout, the ones
that do turn out, vote bigger for Trump. That's big.
You have more white working class voters in Michigan than
you do in Pennsylvania. That's why sometimes people are wondering
if Michigan is going to wind upright of Pennsylvania Wisconsin.
(19:24):
On the other hand, it does correlate to the working
class shift in general. I think that New York to
me is a canary in the coal mine, and I've
been writing about that for some time now. I don't
think Trump is going to win New York, but I
have seen consistent polling where I'm not a big believer
in polls. But I look at the cross tabs, and
I look at the tight shot groups, and New York
from August October was consistently polling between twelve and fourteen points,
(19:47):
including from polsters that had the race at Biden plus
thirty in twenty twenty, and I saw inside ten a
couple times. And I've seen a few crazy polls lately
that are eighteen or so. But I have a feeling
that that numb is down in the low double digits,
if not potentially inside ten, because the New York state
wide races were inside ten points in twenty twenty, which
is a good sign. And when New York moves to
(20:09):
the right since nineteen fifty two, that's happened nine times
in presidential elections. It's moved right nine times in every
single time, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and New Jersey move right with it,
and almost every single time Wisconsin one exception in two
thousand and four and two exceptions in Minnesota. So that
entire working class set of states moves off of New
(20:30):
York and New York is absolutely set to go heavily
to the right.
Speaker 1 (20:33):
This year if Trump does anything close to as well
as illus recent polls even though he won't carry the state,
he probably will have a majority of the popular vote
in the country.
Speaker 2 (20:44):
It'll shift hundreds of thousands of popular votes. I mean,
New York could shift a million in margin. If we
have a number like that where Trump finishes ten twelve
points off the mark California, if he eats up ten
percent of margin, you're looking at a shift of a
million and a half votes. So that's definitely there. Blowout Florida.
Texas looks like it's going to be a bloodbath this year,
which is going to be a relief for a lot
(21:04):
of people who've been smelling the tighter margins in Texas
for ten years.
Speaker 1 (21:08):
Do you think Texas ends up staying Republican.
Speaker 2 (21:11):
I had been very pessimistic about Texas in the next
eight years, but I am very encouraged at least by
this cycle because we have a major movement of the
Latino working class. It used to be that people thought
that demographics racially and ethnically were going to doom Texas,
but Texas also has a lot of Latinos that have
been around since Texas before was even a state, so
(21:32):
they basically are voting like white Americans now. Anyway, but
Texas has had a big Latino shift. Eighty eight percent
of the vote is urban and suburban, so that is
a bit of a concern. So the suburban margins, it's
impossible to maintain forty plus point margins when you start
getting that kind of population density. So the key to
me is getting into Houston proper, Dallas proper in denting
(21:53):
those Democrat margins. So if that can be done successfully
in a program to sustain it can happen, then you
can train Texas like Florida. There's no reason not to
believe that. But getting control of these urban areas. Harris
County is extremely corrupt. It is pretty much the Chicago
of the South, if not Atlanta, but Harris County is
very bad. Prior to this, what looks like Trump pushing
(22:13):
Texas back off to the right this year, I had
thought Texas could be vulnerable by twenty thirty two.
Speaker 1 (22:19):
The scale of the Republican shift in Florida is unbelievable.
Speaker 2 (22:24):
It's going to be a nineteen eighty eight margin. It's
going to be the biggest margin since eighty eight. Florida
has gone from D plus one and twenty twenty to
R plus eight in twenty twenty four. And you know,
most people thought the twenty twenty two midterms that Trump
couldn't approach Rubio de Santus numbers, which were sixteen to
nineteen points. Right now, turnout in Florida is almost R
plus twelve. The Republicans have a three quarter of a
(22:45):
million ballot advantage in Florida, and election day is still
going to trend Republicans. So Trump could be looking at
numbers in Florida between twelve and fifteen points, and that
is going to be truly impressive. And Florida, Michigan, and
Pennsylvania all moved together in every election since nineteen fifty
two except for the safest and most secure election of
all time, which was in twenty twenty.
Speaker 1 (23:05):
I think there was a headline the other day in
the Miami paper that the Republicans were now out voting
the Democrats and Miami Dade.
Speaker 2 (23:13):
Miami's R plus five today. Total turnout is R plus five.
The county is D plus three and a half, but
it's R plus five turnout as of today. So Trump
is going to flip Miami Dade County. So the Republican
nominee for president has carried Miami Dade County seven times,
so in nineteen twenty eight, fifty two, fifty six, seventy two,
eighty eighty four, eighty eight, and all seven times won
(23:35):
the presidency or retained the presidency.
Speaker 1 (23:37):
But it's just a huge shift. That's not going to
be that quest.
Speaker 2 (23:41):
It's not even close. Florida was a one point race
between an ice cream cone and a kick in the
neck for so many years. And you know, even in
twenty twenty, Biden led in most of the polls in Florida.
I didn't think Florida would go to Biden based on
the registration shifts. But right now all sixty seven counties
are more Republican than they were in twenty twenty. There's
been a voter roll perge. There's also been a Pursi
in New Hampshire, and a purge in Nevada, and a
(24:03):
Persie in Philadelphia County and a Persian in Maricopa County.
It's funny to me how voter role purges always only
hurt one party.
Speaker 1 (24:10):
YEP, which explains why they hated.
Speaker 2 (24:13):
One hundred percent. Michigan is the most corrupt of all
the battleground states. This here eighty three and a half
percent of Michigan's population total population is registered to vote.
Only seventy seven percent of any population is over the
age of eighteen, So there's at least six hundred thousand
people that are on Michigan's voter rolls that don't belong there.
Just based on simple age splits.
Speaker 1 (24:33):
Does that lead you believe that it's possible that some
of the votes will be cash this year will not
be actually people who are living.
Speaker 2 (24:41):
Absolutely, it's not just possible, it's one hundred percent likely.
Now the extent of how much that will go on
If Trump pulls Pennsylvania on an early night, pulls Georgia pools,
North Carolina, pools, Pensylvania, that's two seventy right there, without Wisconsin, Arizona, Nevada.
So I don't think that Michigan will be riddled with
cheating if Trump puts an early nightcap on things. I
(25:01):
don't think it's worth getting caught. I don't think it's
worth dealing with the other fall out of that, because
Michigan to me looks like a three to four point
Trump state right now.
Speaker 1 (25:08):
You have made a comment at which I'm intrigued by
the UC daval County, which is Jacksonville, as sort of
a model for Georgia. What's your reasoning.
Speaker 2 (25:19):
When I was doing my forecasting for Georgia, I prefer
states that register voters by party, because then I get
down at the county levels and I produce a trend
analysis which when you look at the margin of votes
one by, ultimately we're talking about number of votes one by.
Each county has a certain amount of votes, just like
each cloud has a certain amount of rain, and I
prefer to get granular like that. Now, some states like
Georgia or Texas or Wisconsin don't register voters by party,
(25:44):
so I have to infer if I can. And for Wisconsin,
a great comp is Iowa. They move together and they've
never been more than nine point eight points apart since
nineteen sixty. But states like Georgia. You know, I thought
logically that North Carolina would potentially be the for Georgia,
but it's not. In fact, North Carolina voted to the
right of Georgia last time for the first time since
(26:05):
nineteen eighty eight, so now they're moving in opposite directions.
But Florida, not the state, but Duval County, the home
of Jacksonville, I started running the numbers on that. First off,
they have an almost identical racial and ethnic split. The black, white,
and Hispanic populations are almost identical to the number what
the racial demographics are. Of course, you have an urban
(26:27):
area of Duval County, you have rural, you have suburbs,
and then you have of course the swing since two
thousand and four. So in four both of those Duval County,
Florida and Georgia backed George Bush by a lot. I
think it was about sixteen points in each, and then
they swung to the left. In eight they both backed McCain,
but very narrowly. Duvall was less than two points, Georgia
(26:48):
was five points all right, And then we had in
twenty twelve both of them moved back to the right.
So Duval was a little more comfortable for Romney and
Georgia was seven and a half almost eight points for
mitt Romney. And then in twenty sixteen they both swung
left and hung with Trump, but just by a little
bit in Duval and by five in Georgia. And in
twenty twenty they swung to the left. Now I don't
know how much of that was an organic swing and
(27:08):
how much of it was the COVID election, but Duval
flipped narrowly by three point eight percent towards Biden, and
then Georgia flipped to Biden as well. So they've moved
to the same direction every election, and they moved by
about the same number. And this year duvall is shifted
from D plus five point nine to D plus one
point nine and the current turnout in Duval is R
(27:30):
plus three point six. So Duval appears to be heading
for a Trump win by standard Republican margins. And if
Georgia sticks with the swing that we've had since four eight, twelve,
sixteen twenty so for the last five elections, then Georgia
is going to be running back right with Duval. And
that pegged me for Georgia at a Trump margin of
five point six percent.
Speaker 1 (27:50):
My sense was around five percent. The people I trust
most watching it. The one other state I have to
(28:12):
ask about Gus has been intriguing. How much has shifted
this year is Nevada. I mean, Clark County was just collapsing,
which is Las Vegas. And as Democrats aren't kiring Clark
County by a big margin, they have no hope.
Speaker 2 (28:26):
The thing that people have to understand about Nevada is
seven out of eight votes come from two counties, Washo,
which is Metro Areno, and then Clark, which of course
is Metro Las Vegas seven out of eight votes. So
the one out of eight votes that come from the
other fifteen county equivalents are massively Trump margins. And I
ran them on a county trend based on registration, and
I think he's only got about another ten thousand of
(28:46):
margin to squeeze out of those fifteen counties, So you
have to make hay in Clark and Washoe counties. And
this could potentially, if it's extrapolated, it could speak to
the strength of Trump in core urban areas, which of
course Arizona being one of them, Maricopa County right next door.
But right now, you have an R plus five turnout
statewide in Nevada. The state itself is D plus one.
(29:08):
Their registration advantage has been shrinking since Obama's second run,
and Trump has always run well to the right of
the Democrat voter registration in Nevada. So I think that
Nevada is pretty much baked at this point. I don't
think that she has a chance to get back in
the fight. I really don't even think that the ruling
from last week is going to butt that. And here's
another important thing I'd like to talk about sports betting.
(29:30):
I'm not a big better, but I used to play
with those daily lineup drafts in baseball to try to
put the brain on baseball. And there's a pick called
the chalk pick. So I may not like Mike Trout
in the lineup today because I have a hunch, but
he always hits left handers, and here's his stats against lefties,
so if you play him enough times, he's going to deliver.
So the chalk pick is that Nevada has never voted
(29:53):
Republican in Arizona voted Democrat in a presidential election. It's
never happened in Arizona has been a state since nineteen twelve.
So if we think Nevada is going to Trump, then
one hundred and twelve years of history suggests that Arizona
is going to Trump too. So I like to make
parallel assumptions like that. And now there's the first time
for everything, but I don't think it's this year.
Speaker 1 (30:12):
Do you think the problems in a Maricopa which actually
we now have a majority don't we.
Speaker 2 (30:17):
Maricopa County has one hundred and eighty one thousand Republican advantage.
It was one hundred thousand four years ago. So you
know a lot of these people thinking that party switchers
are going to save them. I mean, you'd have to
believe that Arizona went from one hundred and thirty thousand
Republican lead to three hundred thousand just so they could
vote more Democrat in all fifteen counties.
Speaker 1 (30:35):
We may pick up the Senate seat there based on
the most recent Poland.
Speaker 2 (30:39):
I saw Carrie Lake at an event a couple weeks
ago and she said that she was only running two
points behind Trump. Now the media swings wildly. I saw
a Gyeago plus fifteen poll the other day, which is
laughable to me. But you know, she's definitely running behind Trump.
We don't know how much. And I think that the
discord there is probably the Latino working class. And the
reason I believe that is because I went through Reuben
(30:59):
Gegos social media. I have not found one single foul
word about Donald Trump all year. So it tells me
that they're sharing voters, just like you have Bob Casey
and Slotkin up in the industrial Midwest, not wanting to
run a foul Trump supporters.
Speaker 1 (31:12):
I thought one of the telling examples of how the
momentum is built is the number of Democrats now who've
always liked Donald Trump. They've always found it easy to
work with him.
Speaker 2 (31:22):
Yeah, and the newspapers that won't come out and endorse does.
Speaker 1 (31:25):
That actually have any impact? Historically they would have been
endorsing Harris. Now none of them are endorsing.
Speaker 2 (31:31):
So the Washington Post is what I like to look at.
They did not endorse Ducaucus in eighty eight, but they
endorsed Bill Clinton in ninety two, and then every Democrat
through twenty twenty. So every election ninety two, ninety six, two, four, eight, twelve, sixteen,
and twenty and they didn't endorse Harris. Well, they've endorsed
three losing Democrats since they began their endorsement street. They
(31:52):
endorsed Gore who lost, Kerry who lost in Clinton who lost,
and Biden who won by forty twenty nine hundred and
eighteen ballots in three states. So why is that they're
not willing to endorse a Democrat this time who could lose?
It's happened before, it suggests to me that maybe things
aren't as close as things have been led to believe.
Speaker 1 (32:09):
Tell me from here about Captain Ky's Corner, because it's
on substact. It strikes me that the work you do
is really, really interesting. So what do people get if
they go to Captain K's Corner.
Speaker 2 (32:21):
Well, Captain Ky's Corner. I started it two years ago.
I was one of these names if you look me up.
I don't have a lot of nice things written about
me in the media. I don't necessarily consider myself an
election denier. I would call myself more of a fraud affirmer.
And Bob Dole, of course, wrote in his own farewell
letter to America that he wondered if Heaven would be
anything like Kansas, and if like in Chicago, he could vote,
(32:41):
if he could vote from Chicago. So I thought it
was pretty funny, and it speaks to these distances of this.
Now I can language the complaints of the twenty twenty
election in a way that forces people who are skeptical
about those sort of things to engage and think. I
think that the twenty twenty election was part organic, some
of it was contrived by the media, some of them
because of the virus that was put out there and overhyped,
(33:03):
and then other parts because the state legislatures allowed their
duties to be usurped by executives and secretaries of state
and created what Richard Barris I like to use the
term quasi elections. And we have states where the trends
are no longer discernible because the integrity of the election
has been completely blown up. And I think that a
lot of the numbers I'm seeing now not only confirmed
Trump momentum this year, but confirm my assumptions from the
(33:25):
twenty twenty election. So a lot of my analyzes are
built on where I believe elections to be today. Most
of my stuff is elections focused. Sometimes I get into
the weeds about other things. But I believe that automatic
voter registration is the death wish of fair elections. Why
do I believe that because in twenty twenty there were
twenty states that had automatic voter registration. Biden won eighteen
(33:46):
of them and the count was two hundred and forty
three electoral votes to nine. So once you blow up
the voter roles, then you have more entries to which
you can assign mail in ballots, and the longer period
of early voting. You have for these mail in ballots
to be distributed, to be filled out and then harvested
and then turned back in because ultimately, if somebody knows
how to trend to analyze counties like I do, they
(34:07):
know what the possible extent of a GOP margin is
in all of these different counties, so they know if
they get X amount of ballots that they will win.
So I think that election rigging has taken on a
new front with all the sophisticated data and technology and
then the loosening of the law. Rank choice voting is
another great example. When your state is trending hard read
it gives you one last election where your Democrat will
(34:29):
win because usually when the Republicans flip the state, they
get about forty nine percent of the vote the first
time they flip it. Right, Well, that wouldn't be sufficient
to flip your state, so you get one more shot.
Captain K's Corner explores a lot of these. I go
into the data and I leave it open for people
to criticize, and I found counties that cannot confirm to
me that some of their precincts did not have more
than one hundred percent turnout in the twenty twenty election,
(34:51):
just based on the way they organize their data.
Speaker 1 (34:54):
The intensity of rejecting the dishonesty of the twenty twenty
eleve on the left. I've got annoyed with that. I
was the guy who's normally very rational, and it was
like I was violating his religious belief system.
Speaker 2 (35:09):
Well, they're going to be election deniers, heif these trends
hold up the kind of questions I'll ask, so Arizona.
When I look at Arizona, Arizona's the most loyal presidential
state in modern political history. So in forty eight it
voted for Harry Truman, and so did Maricopa County. And
then in fifty two it flipped Eisenhower and so did
Maricopa County. And then from nineteen fifty two through twenty
(35:30):
sixteen it voted for every single Republican presidential candidate except
Bob Dolan ninety six. And the only reason Dole didn't
win it is because that was the year that Perot
did cost the Republican He almost got bushed in ninety two,
but he got Dolan ninety six, all right, Maricopa County.
Even though Dolt lost, Arizona still went to Dole. So
Maricopa was read from fifty two through twenty sixteen, and
Trump won it in twenty sixteen with fewer votes than
(35:52):
Mitt Romney did in twenty twelve. So in twenty twenty,
Trump's gains in Arizona statewide more than four hundred thousand
net new votes, the largest Republican gain in one election
cycle in the history of the most loyal Republican state,
and in Maricopa County, a gain of a quarter million,
the largest Republican gain in the history of the most
loyal urban Republican county in the United States, only to
(36:13):
be outdone by a Joe Biden gain that was three
times larger than any gain they ever had in Maricopa
County in calling the state with one percent of the
vote county. So, no, it doesn't make sense, and nobody
really wants to get to the bottom of how this happened.
But the answer is flooded voter roles, ballot harvesting in
an extensive period of time to contribute these ballots, and
(36:34):
an overarching media narrative. The thing that Trump is truly
commanding this year is the media narrative. I believe he
had the vote in twenty twenty, he did not have
the narrative. This time he appears to have them both.
Speaker 1 (36:46):
That's all amazing. I hope we get a chance to
continue this friendship and to continue this kind of work.
You are remarkable. I want to thank you for joining me.
I want to remind our listeners that they can find
your reporting and all the latest elections news on substack
at Skeshel dot substack dot com. We'll have that on
our show page. But I really appreciate you taking this
(37:08):
time to talk with us. This has been very enlightening.
Speaker 2 (37:12):
Likewise, I appreciate the opportunity to come on with your audience.
I've met a lot of new audiences here in the
last couple of weeks. I encourage everybody to keep your
eyes open, do not go to sleep on election night,
make sure you get out there and vote. Make sure
you take your friends that are like minded to vote.
This is an important time and we're going to have
to get out there and do all the fundamentals right.
So thank you so much for the invite, Miss Speaker.
Speaker 1 (37:33):
Thank you to my guest, Seth Keshel. You can get
a link to a substack on our show page at
Newtsworld dot com. News World is produced by Gangwish three
sixty and iHeartMedia. Our executive producer is Guardnsei Sloan. Our
researcher is Rachel Peterson. The artwork for the show was
created by Steve Penley. Special thanks to the team at
Ganwish three sixty. If you've been enjoying newts World, I
(37:56):
hope you'll go to Apple Podcasts and both rate us
with five stars and give us a review so others
can learn what it's all about. Right now, listeners of
Newtsworld can sign up for my three freeweekly columns at
gingristree sixty dot com slash newsletter. I'm Newt Gingrich. This
is Nutsworld.
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