December 13, 2025 • 26 mins
This week on Talkin' Politics, Trump finally returns to the issue his voters care about — affordability. But instead of outlining all the ways he intends to improve the economy, Trump this week gaslit voters, telling them the economy is great and their feelings on the matter don't matter. Well, S.E. has some thoughts. And stay tuned for a chat with Steve Israel, former longtime New York congressman who knows a little something about midterm elections. Also, S.E. and Steve talk about his new book that’s out now, called The Einstein Conspiracy — a historical thriller about a Nazi plot to abduct Albert Einstein.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:03):
Welcome to talking politics.
Speaker 2 (00:05):
We've got a good one for you today, and we
need it, don't we.
Speaker 1 (00:09):
What a week.
Speaker 2 (00:11):
This week, President Trump remembered that the economy was the
most important issue to his base. It was the signature
promise he made to MAGA voters, and plenty of others voted.
Speaker 1 (00:21):
For him because of it.
Speaker 2 (00:23):
He got a bunch of young voters, first time voters,
Hispanic voters, independents, all because he was saying what Joe
Biden and Kamala Harris wouldn't, which was that the economy sucked. Now,
it was good politics for him to focus on affordability
and lowering inflation, lowering the cost of goods during the election,
especially since again Biden at all kept saying the economy
(00:44):
is great, it's strong as hell, or it's great, but
you might not feel it yet because of lagging indicators. Dumb, dumb, dumb, dumb,
and Trump said, voters are telling us the economy is
the most important thing.
Speaker 1 (00:56):
So that's the thing I'll focus on. Duh.
Speaker 2 (00:59):
It was in rocket science. So he told them he'd
fix the economy. He'd fix it on day one.
Speaker 1 (01:04):
Inflation gone, grocery bills down. Now voters knew he didn't
actually mean day one. That wouldn't be possible, So they
gave him a grace.
Speaker 2 (01:12):
Period, a grace period during which they watched the administration
focus on like a thousand other things. There were the
dumb doge cuts that had almost no effect on the economy,
no positive effect, that is, though they did lead to
job losses, slower growth, danger to public safety.
Speaker 3 (01:32):
You know.
Speaker 2 (01:34):
Then there were the dumb tariffs, which have only made
the economy worse because tariffs are attacks on us consumers.
Speaker 1 (01:41):
We're all paying for his dumb trade war.
Speaker 2 (01:44):
You see it in your grocery bills, cost of furniture, close,
all kinds of things.
Speaker 1 (01:49):
And it's led to more unemployment.
Speaker 2 (01:51):
As the rocketing business operating costs negatively impact hiring. Tariffs
have really impacted our farmers who haven't had countries to
sell soybeans and other crops to.
Speaker 1 (02:02):
So Trump just bailed them out.
Speaker 2 (02:04):
To the tune of twelve billion dollars to remind his
tariffs punished farmers and you as consumers. So he's using
taxpayer money, our money, to bail out farmers when we're
already paying more for everything because of the tariffs. Yeah,
that sounds like good economics, Trumps threatened to invade Canada, Panama, Greenland.
(02:29):
Now we're basically at war with Venezuela. He sent the
military and ice into our cities under the pretense of
lowering crime and curbing illegal immigration, to very unpopular initiatives
that have resulted in his appeal among Hispanics and young
people absolutely cratering. And he forced the longest government shut
(02:49):
down in history Gildaly watching as federal workers went without pay,
kids went without food, veterans went without important services for
what for nothing. And he's spending millions on a new
ballroom at the White House, on gold lettering, putting his
name on shit, on a new arc to Trump monument,
and he's played a lot of golf all while Americans,
(03:12):
millions of them are without jobs or they're working three
just to make basic ends meet. They can't afford rent mortgages,
but they can't afford to move. College grads can't find
good jobs, so they're moving back in with their parents.
And now a majority of Americans believe the economy is
worse than it was, that cost of living is the
(03:33):
highest they've ever seen, and even many of his own
voters are starting to blame him for it. So the
outcry among voters but also Republican lawmakers who are hearing
from their outraged constituents that the economy still sucks and
is getting worse. That apparently was enough to pry Trump
away from bombing boats in the Caribbean just long enough
(03:56):
to address the economy again, the most important issue to
most Americans.
Speaker 1 (04:02):
How did he address the economy? Oh, I'm so glad
you asked.
Speaker 2 (04:07):
Here are some of the ways in which he has
addressed voter concerns about the economy this week.
Speaker 3 (04:14):
I don't want to talk about the economy, sir, here
at home, and I wonder what grade you would.
Speaker 4 (04:19):
Give A plus, A plus, A plus plus, plus plus plus.
Speaker 1 (04:24):
Great, terrific.
Speaker 2 (04:26):
Then there was this at a rally in a swing
district in a swing state.
Speaker 1 (04:30):
So they have a new word.
Speaker 4 (04:31):
You know, they always have a hoax.
Speaker 1 (04:33):
The new word is affordability.
Speaker 4 (04:36):
So they look at the camera and they say, this
erection is all about affordability, sax.
Speaker 2 (04:44):
Then here's what he told Americans who are struggling to
pay their bills.
Speaker 1 (04:48):
Here's what he said to do about that.
Speaker 3 (04:50):
You know, you can give up certain products.
Speaker 4 (04:53):
You can give up pencils, guys, under the China policy,
you know, every child can get thirty seven pencils.
Speaker 1 (05:01):
They only need one or two. You know they don't
need that.
Speaker 4 (05:03):
Many, but you always need, You always need steal. You
don't need thirty seven dollars for your daughter. Two or
three is nice, but you don't need thirty seven dollars.
Speaker 1 (05:14):
Okay.
Speaker 2 (05:15):
So to recap on the issue that matters most to
most voters, he has said, the economy's great, a plus
plus plus plus plus. Also, affordability is a hoax, and
buy fewer pencils and dolls. He's saying this to his
own voters as they tell him they blame him for
the shitty economy. Look, I don't have to tell you
(05:38):
how politically stupid this is. To tell voters they're wrong
about how they feel, or that the issue they care
about isn't even real politics. One on one, folks, you
don't do this. And the midterms are less than a
year away, making this even dumber. I can almost hear
the muffled cries of Republican lawmakers who know how bad
this is for them and also know there's nothing they
(06:01):
can do about it because Trump, Trump's gonna Trump, and
this is what they voted for.
Speaker 1 (06:07):
Play stupid games, win stupid prizes.
Speaker 2 (06:11):
Okay, after a quick break, we've got a great guest
who can help talk us through the political perils of
this message.
Speaker 1 (06:17):
We'll be right back.
Speaker 2 (06:32):
Welcome back to talking politics. I'm so happy to have
with me today a friend. He was a longtime New
York congressman who will proudly tell you he left Congress
undefeated and unindicted. He was chair of the d tribrac
so we know something about midterm elections and House math.
And now he runs the Institute of Politics and Global
Affairs at my alma mater, Cornell University. He also runs
(06:55):
a bookstore in Oyster Bay, and he has a new
book out. Steve Israel, welcome to talk.
Speaker 3 (07:00):
He's always a pleasure to be with you.
Speaker 1 (07:02):
I love talking to you now.
Speaker 2 (07:04):
Thanks, and I'm excited to talk to you about the
Einstein conspiracy, your new book. But first let me just
get your take, Steve on the absolute political malpractice of
what Trump is doing right now. The way he's talking
about the economy, the way he's dismissing the top issue
as a hoax. You know, Trump gets away with a
lot that other politicians don't.
Speaker 1 (07:24):
Will he get away with this?
Speaker 3 (07:27):
I don't think so. In fact, we're actually witnessing the
slow and inexorable unraveling of the Trump presidency and a
Republican majority. I thought you framed our political climate up perfectly.
Just now you said something that really struck me. You
said about you can almost hear the muffled whispers of Republicans.
(07:48):
I spent my entire week in Washington, d C. Talking
to my former colleagues, Democrats and Republicans, not so muffled
the whispers they tell in a state of anxiety. They
you know, they were not talking about whether they would
lose the majority in the House, but will it be
single digits or double digits?
Speaker 1 (08:07):
Wow?
Speaker 3 (08:08):
Trump is in this past week, Trump hit the the
mid twenties in job approval among independent voters. Those are
the voters who decide in competitive battlefield congressional districts whether
there's going to be a Democratic majority or a Republican majority.
That's right, If you're a swing voter and your Trump's
(08:31):
job approval is twenty percent or twenty five percent, that
is an existential threat. And now something else happened this
past week. Yes, and that that freaked out Republicans and
animated Democrats, and that is that Miami elected its first
Democratic mayor in thirty years.
Speaker 1 (08:46):
Yeah.
Speaker 3 (08:47):
So you're taking a look at empirical evidence of whether
Trump can get away with this behavior or not, and
the evidence is answering your question, he's not.
Speaker 2 (08:58):
And let me add another what happened yesterday in Indiana, Yes, exactly,
state lawmakers decided no to his pressure campaign to redistrict.
They said no to him. He's not used to hearing
that from Republicans. Do you think he's weakening a bit
in terms of how much he can apply pressure to people?
Speaker 3 (09:17):
Well, first of all, thank you Idiana Republicans for putting
the country ahead of your party's very partisan, narrow goal.
Good for them. And whether it's a matter of Republicans
being able to strengthen on principle or the President going
deeper into a lane duck presidency and viewed by Republicans
(09:39):
as harming them, as taking seats away from them in
the midterm, the combination of those two things as created
an environment where I think you're going to see a
little bit more resistance among Republicans going forward as they
assess that he is problematic for their survival. Nancy Pelosi
used to tell me, I love this lines. So one
(10:00):
of the most indispensable lessons that I learned when when
our fellow Democrats were just lathering her with praise, she
once leaned over to me and she said, you know, Steve,
they love me. I thought, well, that's a little bit peculiar,
and then two seconds later she said, but they love
them more. Ah. Right, So every if you're a congress person,
no matter who you are, you may love President Trump,
but you love your reelection more. That's right. We're going
(10:22):
to see more signs of that.
Speaker 1 (10:24):
That's right.
Speaker 2 (10:25):
And listen, you're not just seeing it in the House
where they're up every two years, and the Senate too.
You know, the Senate rejected the filibuster push. So it
is interesting. I'm always loathe to like jump on the
magas breaking apart. This is the end of Trump is
I'm always because he always comes back. But you really
(10:46):
are seeing I think something new, which is a lot
of people in a lot of disparate different places who
have not said no to him in the past saying no.
Speaker 1 (10:59):
Talk to me.
Speaker 2 (11:00):
Even about the calendar. It's December. Midterms are just under
a month away.
Speaker 1 (11:05):
A year away.
Speaker 2 (11:06):
When do things that are happening really start to impact midterms?
Speaker 1 (11:11):
Like when is a party?
Speaker 2 (11:12):
Are you trying to solidify your messaging so it has
maximum impact before elections? Is what's happening now going to
impact midterms? I guess is what I'm asking.
Speaker 3 (11:21):
What's happening in the next two and a half weeks
is absolutely pivotal. It's a great question. Okay, what will
happen when members go home and sit with their families
during the holidays, yes, and make decisions on whether they
want to put themselves through this through another cycle. When
I chaired the D TRIPLECSC, I wanted to ban my
(11:42):
Democratic colleagues in tough districts from going home for the holidays.
I wanted to know you can't do that. You're going
to stay here. Yeah, because you go home, you know
it's going to be a brutal election in a tough district.
You're looking at your family, and that is the period
of time when you make the decision. I can't tell
(12:02):
you how my phone rang after Christmas, like literally the
day after Christmas, and I saw that it was a
Democratic colleague in a rough district, Like I would panic
because I knew what that call was going to do. Yes,
So German, I've thought about it. I'm not going to run.
Speaker 2 (12:16):
So it's now what's happening now is going to matter
for midterms. People who say, well it's a year away,
it doesn't matter, people will forget.
Speaker 3 (12:23):
Oh, it's it's set up right now and we've already
seen it. Look, Marjorie Taylor Green isn't running again. What
does that tell you? Yeah, the number of announcements that
Republicans made that they're not going to run again, that's
the canary in the coal mine, like break the glass
to mix metaphors. Yeah, yeah, yeah, Because what do you
(12:44):
have to do if you haven't You lose the power
of the incumbency. Now you've got to recruit another candidate
in a competitive district. You got to raise two, three, four,
five million or more. You have to hit the reset button.
And you're less than a year away. So it creates
all sorts of strains on the party in power. Plus
(13:05):
one other thing, I'll say, they all know history, only
three times in history has her president's party not lost seats. Yep,
all right, I should say since nineteen thirty five, not
in all of history.
Speaker 1 (13:17):
Nineteen thirty four, nineteen ninety eight, in two thousand and two.
Speaker 3 (13:19):
There you go, where you are? You are wonkish. So
they're looking at that history and they're like, all right,
it's we're gonna get We're gonna get harmed in this thing.
Why bother?
Speaker 1 (13:31):
Right? So when does when does trump?
Speaker 2 (13:34):
When do Republicans need some good economic news to help
to help them out in time for midterms?
Speaker 3 (13:39):
So I don't know that. Well, I'm not sure if
they need news or a narrative.
Speaker 1 (13:44):
Okay, right, Okay, So.
Speaker 3 (13:46):
Look, I very strongly believe that elections are won and lost,
or at least midterm House elections based on the conversations
that independent voters are having at their kitchen table two
to three weeks before the actual election. Okay, So that's
when people begin to independent voters. I mean, base voters
have already figured it out, but independent voters need to
(14:08):
begin making their judgments. And look, they are thirty to
forty competitive districts, swing districts. So I'm not interested in
what voters or what decision voters are going to make
in a very blue district in New York City or
a very red district in Alabama. I want to know
what are they thinking about in competitive districts in Pima County, Arizona.
What are they thinking about in a competitive district in Wisconsin. Now,
(14:31):
if they're talking about how things are better, economy's okay,
and we don't want to put a check on Trump
because we like the direction he's taking the country in. Well,
Republicans could pull it off. They can keep their majority.
But if they're saying, are you kidding me? Thirty seven pencils,
thirty seven dollars, he doesn't think we're hurting right, and
(14:51):
I'm going to give him another license for two years
to do whatever he wants. I want checks and balances,
then Democrats win.
Speaker 2 (15:00):
Talking to the head of the Los Angeles Port Port
this week, and he was saying, even if Trump pulls
back the tariffs, soybean farmers, for example, still have to
wait until the next growth season they which could be
months from now, and even then it still takes months
to like firm up contracts to import and export. So
(15:20):
it it just feels like we're kind of stuck, will
be in some pain for a while because of these tariffs.
Speaker 3 (15:27):
It appears so now you know, I'm not an economist,
and so I can't make that judgment, but I'm a
practicing politician. Yeah. And one thing that used to just
make me cringe was when economists would stand up a
Democratic members conferences members, you know, House members conferences and say, well, statistically,
you know, inflation is down.
Speaker 1 (15:47):
Yeah, look at these charts, right.
Speaker 3 (15:49):
These people just don't know how good they.
Speaker 1 (15:51):
Have exactly blacking indicators.
Speaker 3 (15:52):
Doing now right. So it's not it's not what you believe,
what what a member of Congress or a campaign consultant, Yes, thinks,
it's how people feel totally. And if they don't feel
that the economy is improving, then the Republicans are in
a whole heap of trouble.
Speaker 2 (16:08):
What would you have told Bidener Harris twenty twenty four
to say about the economy, because, as we just said,
saying it was strong as hell, or that it was good,
you just don't feel it yet, that wasn't it. What
could they have said to both acknowledge people's pain but
also ask for another four years stuff?
Speaker 3 (16:29):
You know, I've been pretty critical of the messages. First
of all, whatever they said, they should have led with
the economy, not led with other issues that didn't reflect
the anxieties, like democracy or just know they talked about
democracy and they talk about other social and cultural issues.
(16:50):
You work at three jobs in Youngstown, Ohio. Right, you
have nothing against those issues, but you can't pay the
rent at the end of the day. I see, you know,
migration and globalization and automation and this thing called AI
that may take your job. And they're talking about these
other cultural issues. Give me a break. So I think
that they should have led with the economy. Look, what's
(17:12):
the use of relitigating a lose A message that didn't win.
But I do think it's instructive and it helped Mikey
Churell and a Abigail Spamberg Virginia Governor's City uh City Council,
people who.
Speaker 2 (17:28):
Ran the mayor the Miami Mayority.
Speaker 3 (17:32):
In Mississippi, Democrats did well run on this affordability hoax.
Donald Trump, I hope he keeps talking about all The
word itself suggests that he's in a bizarre bubble.
Speaker 2 (17:45):
Yeah, okay, do you expect DEM's how how big do
you think the.
Speaker 1 (17:51):
Wave will be in November?
Speaker 3 (17:53):
Well? So, look, because of jerry mandering, including mid decade
jerry mandery, which which could end up hurting republicanss in
the long term. But because of that, the immediate effect
is that the days of picking up sixty three seats
or even thirty three seats are over. There just aren't
enough competitive districts now purple districts that are on the battlefield.
(18:17):
So I no longer think in terms of, you know,
dozens of seats. I think in terms of will it
be high single digits? Can it get to fifteen eighteen
something like that. I could be proven wrong if it
continues to be a disaster and we don't know what
(18:38):
kind of mitigating circumstances you know, Trump will create, what
kind of you know, what kind of event he will attempt,
or what kind of voter suppression they will try. But
right now, I don't know of anybody who doesn't see
a possibility that Democrats can flip the House by five
to ten. And oh, by the way, Essie, if you
(19:00):
had asked me two months ago whether the Senate was
in play, I would have said, no, I think there's
a shot that the Democrats WoT the Senate.
Speaker 2 (19:07):
Now, wow, are you saying that based on what you're
hearing Trump say? Are you saying that based on Virginia,
New Jersey, New York Miami.
Speaker 1 (19:17):
What are you? What's that based on both?
Speaker 3 (19:20):
Yeah, you know, he's he's he has opportunities to try
and correct his narrative, to remind people what they saw
on him. He's blowing every single one of those opportunities
to wit. What was the big news coming out of
the State Department this week? And we've got like Ukraine,
We've got China, we've got Taiwan, we've got Venezuela. But
thank god the Trump administration changed the typeface on the fonts,
(19:45):
fonts the right.
Speaker 1 (19:47):
I hear a lot of people go to the ballot
box for fonts for funds.
Speaker 3 (19:50):
Yeah, yeah, like what fun I'm pro Times New Roman.
Yeah well no, no.
Speaker 1 (19:54):
Against comic sans against.
Speaker 3 (19:56):
It's totally imposed, right, And I want to note like
that the Times New Roman, super pack's.
Speaker 2 (20:01):
Big Times New Roman, Big Times New Roman.
Speaker 1 (20:06):
Yeah, that's right, They've got lots they keep.
Speaker 3 (20:08):
It's incredible, like the most brilliant messager I have seen
in contemporary politics, keeps squandering opportunities to correct the message.
And that's why he's in the low forties or mid
forties and job approval across the board. When you take
a look at registered voters, lower when you take a
look at independent voters even lower. Yeah, and you saw
(20:30):
the success of statewide races last November. I think doesn't
guarantee that the Democrats will pick up the Senate, but
they're in much better position than anyone would have anticipated
at this point.
Speaker 1 (20:40):
Well, listen, you're the expert.
Speaker 2 (20:43):
Okay, tell me about the Einstein Conspiracy. I know you've
talked to me about it, but tell our listeners.
Speaker 3 (20:49):
Well, I'm a book tour now. And so the book
was released three weeks ago, The Einstein Conspiracy, which is
a historic spy thriller about the Nazis trying to down
Albert Einstein while he's warning FDR about the German research
program to create an Adam Baum. Absolutely based on real events,
based on truth. Yeah not, but it's not history, it's
(21:13):
historic fiction. Yeah, it's propulsive and it's kind of I
have to say, thank god, it's getting such a wonderful
response where like full houses everywhere we go. Yeah, I'm
are my way to politics and prose and Washington and
Ram Emmanuel is doing an event for me in Chicago,
is doing an event for me in California. Great, So
(21:35):
I'll be in Miami. I'll be in Minnesota. We just
picked up. So it's it's a whot. The book's doing
well and it makes a perfect holiday gift.
Speaker 2 (21:43):
I was just gonna say it's out now. You can
get a bookstores and online.
Speaker 1 (21:47):
Check it out.
Speaker 2 (21:47):
If you like Brad thor or Eric Larsen, Jake Tapper's novels,
stories were like actual events, history, politics all collide with
some fun narratives. You'll love it and it's a perfect
Christmas or Hanukah gift, like for dads, husbands, brothers. But
you know, an anyone, I think your your teenager would
(22:08):
would probably love it because it's riveting and and really fun.
So congrats on the success and enjoy that book tour.
Speaker 1 (22:17):
I've been on a book tour. Stay hydrated.
Speaker 3 (22:20):
It's exhausting, but I'll tell you what, the heck of
a lot better than a congressional town hall meeting any day.
Speaker 1 (22:26):
One one thousand percent.
Speaker 2 (22:29):
Okay, before I let you go, we do something called
the exit poll, which is three questions of varying degrees
of seriousness. Okay, what's your favorite movie about politics?
Speaker 3 (22:39):
Oh? Gosh, you know, I did a TC I did
a Turner Classic Movies evening on political movies. And so
this is an easy one for me. The Candidate with
Robert Redford, which I view as the most accurate and
authentic view of politics ever portrayed on screen.
Speaker 2 (22:55):
Wow, that's a big endorsement, you know. Yeah, I'm reminded
you teach a politics and.
Speaker 1 (23:01):
Film course at Cornell.
Speaker 3 (23:03):
At Cornell that I guess lecture. I feel like I
need to know yours well.
Speaker 1 (23:08):
But I God, I have so many.
Speaker 2 (23:09):
The American President, which is what I do in your class,
is so near and dear to my heart. I adore
Aaron Sorkin. I just love that movie. It feels good.
It makes me feel good when I watch. It makes
me forget how gross everything is. That's really good. But god,
there's so many primary colors is great. Yes, Wag the
(23:30):
dog is great. I mean I could do a thousand.
The Contender Contender with Jeff Bridges as a shark sandwich
eating president is like the greatest character.
Speaker 1 (23:44):
A president I think in a movie.
Speaker 2 (23:47):
Okay, next question, who is someone you like across the aisle?
Speaker 3 (23:53):
Oh? I have so many. Billy Long, a former kind
of maga Republican congressman from Missouri who became the Commissioner
of the IRS and Trump appointed him Commissioner of the
IRS in his second term. One of the funniest guys
I know, a bibliophile, huge fan of his, and also
(24:15):
Tom Cole, the Oklahoma chairman of the House Appropriations Committee,
also one of the smartest guys I've met, and a
voracious reader, an expert in history. I would say those
two come to mind immediately. Love it.
Speaker 2 (24:28):
Okay, Finally, how do we save our democracy, Steve, Well.
Speaker 3 (24:33):
By doing what we're doing now, more conversations. We have
to elevate our discourse. We have to reduce our reliance
on algorithms and social media. We've got to learn how
to talk to one another again. And most important, stop
like reading posts on social media. But read books. And
I mean it, like yeah, full books kind of rejuvenate
(24:56):
our critical thinking skills and rewire our rings to understand
that some issues need three hundred pages to understand like
a quick post on social media.
Speaker 1 (25:06):
Would you recommend the Stoics.
Speaker 3 (25:09):
I oh, definitely read the Stoics. When you're finished reading
the Einstein Conspiracy, I definitely go to that's right, the Stoics.
Speaker 2 (25:17):
Yes, Steve Israel, thanks so much and I'll see you
back at Cornell soon.
Speaker 1 (25:21):
I'm sure I.
Speaker 3 (25:22):
Can't wait, and let's reconvene after the holidays and talk
about the number of retirements that we witness.
Speaker 1 (25:29):
Oh, I love it. Okay, it's a date. You'll come back,
all right.
Speaker 3 (25:31):
I'd love to thank you.
Speaker 1 (25:32):
Thanks Steve. Bye, Thanks to Steve. And that's it for
me at Talking Politics. We'll see you next week.
Speaker 2 (25:41):
Off the Cup is a production of iHeart Podcasts as
part of the Reason Choice Network.
Speaker 1 (25:45):
If you want more, check out the.
Speaker 2 (25:47):
Other Reason Choice podcasts, Politics with Jamel Hill and Native
Land Pod. For Off the Cop, I'm your host, Se Cup.
Editing and sound design by Derek Clements. Our executive producers
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for new episodes every Wednesday.
Welcome to talking politics.
Speaker 2 (00:05):
We've got a good one for you today, and we
need it, don't we.
Speaker 1 (00:09):
What a week.
Speaker 2 (00:11):
This week, President Trump remembered that the economy was the
most important issue to his base. It was the signature
promise he made to MAGA voters, and plenty of others voted.
Speaker 1 (00:21):
For him because of it.
Speaker 2 (00:23):
He got a bunch of young voters, first time voters,
Hispanic voters, independents, all because he was saying what Joe
Biden and Kamala Harris wouldn't, which was that the economy sucked. Now,
it was good politics for him to focus on affordability
and lowering inflation, lowering the cost of goods during the election,
especially since again Biden at all kept saying the economy
(00:44):
is great, it's strong as hell, or it's great, but
you might not feel it yet because of lagging indicators. Dumb, dumb, dumb, dumb,
and Trump said, voters are telling us the economy is
the most important thing.
Speaker 1 (00:56):
So that's the thing I'll focus on. Duh.
Speaker 2 (00:59):
It was in rocket science. So he told them he'd
fix the economy. He'd fix it on day one.
Speaker 1 (01:04):
Inflation gone, grocery bills down. Now voters knew he didn't
actually mean day one. That wouldn't be possible, So they
gave him a grace.
Speaker 2 (01:12):
Period, a grace period during which they watched the administration
focus on like a thousand other things. There were the
dumb doge cuts that had almost no effect on the economy,
no positive effect, that is, though they did lead to
job losses, slower growth, danger to public safety.
Speaker 3 (01:32):
You know.
Speaker 2 (01:34):
Then there were the dumb tariffs, which have only made
the economy worse because tariffs are attacks on us consumers.
Speaker 1 (01:41):
We're all paying for his dumb trade war.
Speaker 2 (01:44):
You see it in your grocery bills, cost of furniture, close,
all kinds of things.
Speaker 1 (01:49):
And it's led to more unemployment.
Speaker 2 (01:51):
As the rocketing business operating costs negatively impact hiring. Tariffs
have really impacted our farmers who haven't had countries to
sell soybeans and other crops to.
Speaker 1 (02:02):
So Trump just bailed them out.
Speaker 2 (02:04):
To the tune of twelve billion dollars to remind his
tariffs punished farmers and you as consumers. So he's using
taxpayer money, our money, to bail out farmers when we're
already paying more for everything because of the tariffs. Yeah,
that sounds like good economics, Trumps threatened to invade Canada, Panama, Greenland.
(02:29):
Now we're basically at war with Venezuela. He sent the
military and ice into our cities under the pretense of
lowering crime and curbing illegal immigration, to very unpopular initiatives
that have resulted in his appeal among Hispanics and young
people absolutely cratering. And he forced the longest government shut
(02:49):
down in history Gildaly watching as federal workers went without pay,
kids went without food, veterans went without important services for
what for nothing. And he's spending millions on a new
ballroom at the White House, on gold lettering, putting his
name on shit, on a new arc to Trump monument,
and he's played a lot of golf all while Americans,
(03:12):
millions of them are without jobs or they're working three
just to make basic ends meet. They can't afford rent mortgages,
but they can't afford to move. College grads can't find
good jobs, so they're moving back in with their parents.
And now a majority of Americans believe the economy is
worse than it was, that cost of living is the
(03:33):
highest they've ever seen, and even many of his own
voters are starting to blame him for it. So the
outcry among voters but also Republican lawmakers who are hearing
from their outraged constituents that the economy still sucks and
is getting worse. That apparently was enough to pry Trump
away from bombing boats in the Caribbean just long enough
(03:56):
to address the economy again, the most important issue to
most Americans.
Speaker 1 (04:02):
How did he address the economy? Oh, I'm so glad
you asked.
Speaker 2 (04:07):
Here are some of the ways in which he has
addressed voter concerns about the economy this week.
Speaker 3 (04:14):
I don't want to talk about the economy, sir, here
at home, and I wonder what grade you would.
Speaker 4 (04:19):
Give A plus, A plus, A plus plus, plus plus plus.
Speaker 1 (04:24):
Great, terrific.
Speaker 2 (04:26):
Then there was this at a rally in a swing
district in a swing state.
Speaker 1 (04:30):
So they have a new word.
Speaker 4 (04:31):
You know, they always have a hoax.
Speaker 1 (04:33):
The new word is affordability.
Speaker 4 (04:36):
So they look at the camera and they say, this
erection is all about affordability, sax.
Speaker 2 (04:44):
Then here's what he told Americans who are struggling to
pay their bills.
Speaker 1 (04:48):
Here's what he said to do about that.
Speaker 3 (04:50):
You know, you can give up certain products.
Speaker 4 (04:53):
You can give up pencils, guys, under the China policy,
you know, every child can get thirty seven pencils.
Speaker 1 (05:01):
They only need one or two. You know they don't
need that.
Speaker 4 (05:03):
Many, but you always need, You always need steal. You
don't need thirty seven dollars for your daughter. Two or
three is nice, but you don't need thirty seven dollars.
Speaker 1 (05:14):
Okay.
Speaker 2 (05:15):
So to recap on the issue that matters most to
most voters, he has said, the economy's great, a plus
plus plus plus plus. Also, affordability is a hoax, and
buy fewer pencils and dolls. He's saying this to his
own voters as they tell him they blame him for
the shitty economy. Look, I don't have to tell you
(05:38):
how politically stupid this is. To tell voters they're wrong
about how they feel, or that the issue they care
about isn't even real politics. One on one, folks, you
don't do this. And the midterms are less than a
year away, making this even dumber. I can almost hear
the muffled cries of Republican lawmakers who know how bad
this is for them and also know there's nothing they
(06:01):
can do about it because Trump, Trump's gonna Trump, and
this is what they voted for.
Speaker 1 (06:07):
Play stupid games, win stupid prizes.
Speaker 2 (06:11):
Okay, after a quick break, we've got a great guest
who can help talk us through the political perils of
this message.
Speaker 1 (06:17):
We'll be right back.
Speaker 2 (06:32):
Welcome back to talking politics. I'm so happy to have
with me today a friend. He was a longtime New
York congressman who will proudly tell you he left Congress
undefeated and unindicted. He was chair of the d tribrac
so we know something about midterm elections and House math.
And now he runs the Institute of Politics and Global
Affairs at my alma mater, Cornell University. He also runs
(06:55):
a bookstore in Oyster Bay, and he has a new
book out. Steve Israel, welcome to talk.
Speaker 3 (07:00):
He's always a pleasure to be with you.
Speaker 1 (07:02):
I love talking to you now.
Speaker 2 (07:04):
Thanks, and I'm excited to talk to you about the
Einstein conspiracy, your new book. But first let me just
get your take, Steve on the absolute political malpractice of
what Trump is doing right now. The way he's talking
about the economy, the way he's dismissing the top issue
as a hoax. You know, Trump gets away with a
lot that other politicians don't.
Speaker 1 (07:24):
Will he get away with this?
Speaker 3 (07:27):
I don't think so. In fact, we're actually witnessing the
slow and inexorable unraveling of the Trump presidency and a
Republican majority. I thought you framed our political climate up perfectly.
Just now you said something that really struck me. You
said about you can almost hear the muffled whispers of Republicans.
(07:48):
I spent my entire week in Washington, d C. Talking
to my former colleagues, Democrats and Republicans, not so muffled
the whispers they tell in a state of anxiety. They
you know, they were not talking about whether they would
lose the majority in the House, but will it be
single digits or double digits?
Speaker 1 (08:07):
Wow?
Speaker 3 (08:08):
Trump is in this past week, Trump hit the the
mid twenties in job approval among independent voters. Those are
the voters who decide in competitive battlefield congressional districts whether
there's going to be a Democratic majority or a Republican majority.
That's right, If you're a swing voter and your Trump's
(08:31):
job approval is twenty percent or twenty five percent, that
is an existential threat. And now something else happened this
past week. Yes, and that that freaked out Republicans and
animated Democrats, and that is that Miami elected its first
Democratic mayor in thirty years.
Speaker 1 (08:46):
Yeah.
Speaker 3 (08:47):
So you're taking a look at empirical evidence of whether
Trump can get away with this behavior or not, and
the evidence is answering your question, he's not.
Speaker 2 (08:58):
And let me add another what happened yesterday in Indiana, Yes, exactly,
state lawmakers decided no to his pressure campaign to redistrict.
They said no to him. He's not used to hearing
that from Republicans. Do you think he's weakening a bit
in terms of how much he can apply pressure to people?
Speaker 3 (09:17):
Well, first of all, thank you Idiana Republicans for putting
the country ahead of your party's very partisan, narrow goal.
Good for them. And whether it's a matter of Republicans
being able to strengthen on principle or the President going
deeper into a lane duck presidency and viewed by Republicans
(09:39):
as harming them, as taking seats away from them in
the midterm, the combination of those two things as created
an environment where I think you're going to see a
little bit more resistance among Republicans going forward as they
assess that he is problematic for their survival. Nancy Pelosi
used to tell me, I love this lines. So one
(10:00):
of the most indispensable lessons that I learned when when
our fellow Democrats were just lathering her with praise, she
once leaned over to me and she said, you know, Steve,
they love me. I thought, well, that's a little bit peculiar,
and then two seconds later she said, but they love
them more. Ah. Right, So every if you're a congress person,
no matter who you are, you may love President Trump,
but you love your reelection more. That's right. We're going
(10:22):
to see more signs of that.
Speaker 1 (10:24):
That's right.
Speaker 2 (10:25):
And listen, you're not just seeing it in the House
where they're up every two years, and the Senate too.
You know, the Senate rejected the filibuster push. So it
is interesting. I'm always loathe to like jump on the
magas breaking apart. This is the end of Trump is
I'm always because he always comes back. But you really
(10:46):
are seeing I think something new, which is a lot
of people in a lot of disparate different places who
have not said no to him in the past saying no.
Speaker 1 (10:59):
Talk to me.
Speaker 2 (11:00):
Even about the calendar. It's December. Midterms are just under
a month away.
Speaker 1 (11:05):
A year away.
Speaker 2 (11:06):
When do things that are happening really start to impact midterms?
Speaker 1 (11:11):
Like when is a party?
Speaker 2 (11:12):
Are you trying to solidify your messaging so it has
maximum impact before elections? Is what's happening now going to
impact midterms? I guess is what I'm asking.
Speaker 3 (11:21):
What's happening in the next two and a half weeks
is absolutely pivotal. It's a great question. Okay, what will
happen when members go home and sit with their families
during the holidays, yes, and make decisions on whether they
want to put themselves through this through another cycle. When
I chaired the D TRIPLECSC, I wanted to ban my
(11:42):
Democratic colleagues in tough districts from going home for the holidays.
I wanted to know you can't do that. You're going
to stay here. Yeah, because you go home, you know
it's going to be a brutal election in a tough district.
You're looking at your family, and that is the period
of time when you make the decision. I can't tell
(12:02):
you how my phone rang after Christmas, like literally the
day after Christmas, and I saw that it was a
Democratic colleague in a rough district, Like I would panic
because I knew what that call was going to do. Yes,
So German, I've thought about it. I'm not going to run.
Speaker 2 (12:16):
So it's now what's happening now is going to matter
for midterms. People who say, well it's a year away,
it doesn't matter, people will forget.
Speaker 3 (12:23):
Oh, it's it's set up right now and we've already
seen it. Look, Marjorie Taylor Green isn't running again. What
does that tell you? Yeah, the number of announcements that
Republicans made that they're not going to run again, that's
the canary in the coal mine, like break the glass
to mix metaphors. Yeah, yeah, yeah, Because what do you
(12:44):
have to do if you haven't You lose the power
of the incumbency. Now you've got to recruit another candidate
in a competitive district. You got to raise two, three, four,
five million or more. You have to hit the reset button.
And you're less than a year away. So it creates
all sorts of strains on the party in power. Plus
(13:05):
one other thing, I'll say, they all know history, only
three times in history has her president's party not lost seats. Yep,
all right, I should say since nineteen thirty five, not
in all of history.
Speaker 1 (13:17):
Nineteen thirty four, nineteen ninety eight, in two thousand and two.
Speaker 3 (13:19):
There you go, where you are? You are wonkish. So
they're looking at that history and they're like, all right,
it's we're gonna get We're gonna get harmed in this thing.
Why bother?
Speaker 1 (13:31):
Right? So when does when does trump?
Speaker 2 (13:34):
When do Republicans need some good economic news to help
to help them out in time for midterms?
Speaker 3 (13:39):
So I don't know that. Well, I'm not sure if
they need news or a narrative.
Speaker 1 (13:44):
Okay, right, Okay, So.
Speaker 3 (13:46):
Look, I very strongly believe that elections are won and lost,
or at least midterm House elections based on the conversations
that independent voters are having at their kitchen table two
to three weeks before the actual election. Okay, So that's
when people begin to independent voters. I mean, base voters
have already figured it out, but independent voters need to
(14:08):
begin making their judgments. And look, they are thirty to
forty competitive districts, swing districts. So I'm not interested in
what voters or what decision voters are going to make
in a very blue district in New York City or
a very red district in Alabama. I want to know
what are they thinking about in competitive districts in Pima County, Arizona.
What are they thinking about in a competitive district in Wisconsin. Now,
(14:31):
if they're talking about how things are better, economy's okay,
and we don't want to put a check on Trump
because we like the direction he's taking the country in. Well,
Republicans could pull it off. They can keep their majority.
But if they're saying, are you kidding me? Thirty seven pencils,
thirty seven dollars, he doesn't think we're hurting right, and
(14:51):
I'm going to give him another license for two years
to do whatever he wants. I want checks and balances,
then Democrats win.
Speaker 2 (15:00):
Talking to the head of the Los Angeles Port Port
this week, and he was saying, even if Trump pulls
back the tariffs, soybean farmers, for example, still have to
wait until the next growth season they which could be
months from now, and even then it still takes months
to like firm up contracts to import and export. So
(15:20):
it it just feels like we're kind of stuck, will
be in some pain for a while because of these tariffs.
Speaker 3 (15:27):
It appears so now you know, I'm not an economist,
and so I can't make that judgment, but I'm a
practicing politician. Yeah. And one thing that used to just
make me cringe was when economists would stand up a
Democratic members conferences members, you know, House members conferences and say, well, statistically,
you know, inflation is down.
Speaker 1 (15:47):
Yeah, look at these charts, right.
Speaker 3 (15:49):
These people just don't know how good they.
Speaker 1 (15:51):
Have exactly blacking indicators.
Speaker 3 (15:52):
Doing now right. So it's not it's not what you believe,
what what a member of Congress or a campaign consultant, Yes, thinks,
it's how people feel totally. And if they don't feel
that the economy is improving, then the Republicans are in
a whole heap of trouble.
Speaker 2 (16:08):
What would you have told Bidener Harris twenty twenty four
to say about the economy, because, as we just said,
saying it was strong as hell, or that it was good,
you just don't feel it yet, that wasn't it. What
could they have said to both acknowledge people's pain but
also ask for another four years stuff?
Speaker 3 (16:29):
You know, I've been pretty critical of the messages. First
of all, whatever they said, they should have led with
the economy, not led with other issues that didn't reflect
the anxieties, like democracy or just know they talked about
democracy and they talk about other social and cultural issues.
(16:50):
You work at three jobs in Youngstown, Ohio. Right, you
have nothing against those issues, but you can't pay the
rent at the end of the day. I see, you know,
migration and globalization and automation and this thing called AI
that may take your job. And they're talking about these
other cultural issues. Give me a break. So I think
that they should have led with the economy. Look, what's
(17:12):
the use of relitigating a lose A message that didn't win.
But I do think it's instructive and it helped Mikey
Churell and a Abigail Spamberg Virginia Governor's City uh City Council,
people who.
Speaker 2 (17:28):
Ran the mayor the Miami Mayority.
Speaker 3 (17:32):
In Mississippi, Democrats did well run on this affordability hoax.
Donald Trump, I hope he keeps talking about all The
word itself suggests that he's in a bizarre bubble.
Speaker 2 (17:45):
Yeah, okay, do you expect DEM's how how big do
you think the.
Speaker 1 (17:51):
Wave will be in November?
Speaker 3 (17:53):
Well? So, look, because of jerry mandering, including mid decade
jerry mandery, which which could end up hurting republicanss in
the long term. But because of that, the immediate effect
is that the days of picking up sixty three seats
or even thirty three seats are over. There just aren't
enough competitive districts now purple districts that are on the battlefield.
(18:17):
So I no longer think in terms of, you know,
dozens of seats. I think in terms of will it
be high single digits? Can it get to fifteen eighteen
something like that. I could be proven wrong if it
continues to be a disaster and we don't know what
(18:38):
kind of mitigating circumstances you know, Trump will create, what
kind of you know, what kind of event he will attempt,
or what kind of voter suppression they will try. But
right now, I don't know of anybody who doesn't see
a possibility that Democrats can flip the House by five
to ten. And oh, by the way, Essie, if you
(19:00):
had asked me two months ago whether the Senate was
in play, I would have said, no, I think there's
a shot that the Democrats WoT the Senate.
Speaker 2 (19:07):
Now, wow, are you saying that based on what you're
hearing Trump say? Are you saying that based on Virginia,
New Jersey, New York Miami.
Speaker 1 (19:17):
What are you? What's that based on both?
Speaker 3 (19:20):
Yeah, you know, he's he's he has opportunities to try
and correct his narrative, to remind people what they saw
on him. He's blowing every single one of those opportunities
to wit. What was the big news coming out of
the State Department this week? And we've got like Ukraine,
We've got China, we've got Taiwan, we've got Venezuela. But
thank god the Trump administration changed the typeface on the fonts,
(19:45):
fonts the right.
Speaker 1 (19:47):
I hear a lot of people go to the ballot
box for fonts for funds.
Speaker 3 (19:50):
Yeah, yeah, like what fun I'm pro Times New Roman.
Yeah well no, no.
Speaker 1 (19:54):
Against comic sans against.
Speaker 3 (19:56):
It's totally imposed, right, And I want to note like
that the Times New Roman, super pack's.
Speaker 2 (20:01):
Big Times New Roman, Big Times New Roman.
Speaker 1 (20:06):
Yeah, that's right, They've got lots they keep.
Speaker 3 (20:08):
It's incredible, like the most brilliant messager I have seen
in contemporary politics, keeps squandering opportunities to correct the message.
And that's why he's in the low forties or mid
forties and job approval across the board. When you take
a look at registered voters, lower when you take a
look at independent voters even lower. Yeah, and you saw
(20:30):
the success of statewide races last November. I think doesn't
guarantee that the Democrats will pick up the Senate, but
they're in much better position than anyone would have anticipated
at this point.
Speaker 1 (20:40):
Well, listen, you're the expert.
Speaker 2 (20:43):
Okay, tell me about the Einstein Conspiracy. I know you've
talked to me about it, but tell our listeners.
Speaker 3 (20:49):
Well, I'm a book tour now. And so the book
was released three weeks ago, The Einstein Conspiracy, which is
a historic spy thriller about the Nazis trying to down
Albert Einstein while he's warning FDR about the German research
program to create an Adam Baum. Absolutely based on real events,
based on truth. Yeah not, but it's not history, it's
(21:13):
historic fiction. Yeah, it's propulsive and it's kind of I
have to say, thank god, it's getting such a wonderful
response where like full houses everywhere we go. Yeah, I'm
are my way to politics and prose and Washington and
Ram Emmanuel is doing an event for me in Chicago,
is doing an event for me in California. Great, So
(21:35):
I'll be in Miami. I'll be in Minnesota. We just
picked up. So it's it's a whot. The book's doing
well and it makes a perfect holiday gift.
Speaker 2 (21:43):
I was just gonna say it's out now. You can
get a bookstores and online.
Speaker 1 (21:47):
Check it out.
Speaker 2 (21:47):
If you like Brad thor or Eric Larsen, Jake Tapper's novels,
stories were like actual events, history, politics all collide with
some fun narratives. You'll love it and it's a perfect
Christmas or Hanukah gift, like for dads, husbands, brothers. But
you know, an anyone, I think your your teenager would
(22:08):
would probably love it because it's riveting and and really fun.
So congrats on the success and enjoy that book tour.
Speaker 1 (22:17):
I've been on a book tour. Stay hydrated.
Speaker 3 (22:20):
It's exhausting, but I'll tell you what, the heck of
a lot better than a congressional town hall meeting any day.
Speaker 1 (22:26):
One one thousand percent.
Speaker 2 (22:29):
Okay, before I let you go, we do something called
the exit poll, which is three questions of varying degrees
of seriousness. Okay, what's your favorite movie about politics?
Speaker 3 (22:39):
Oh? Gosh, you know, I did a TC I did
a Turner Classic Movies evening on political movies. And so
this is an easy one for me. The Candidate with
Robert Redford, which I view as the most accurate and
authentic view of politics ever portrayed on screen.
Speaker 2 (22:55):
Wow, that's a big endorsement, you know. Yeah, I'm reminded
you teach a politics and.
Speaker 1 (23:01):
Film course at Cornell.
Speaker 3 (23:03):
At Cornell that I guess lecture. I feel like I
need to know yours well.
Speaker 1 (23:08):
But I God, I have so many.
Speaker 2 (23:09):
The American President, which is what I do in your class,
is so near and dear to my heart. I adore
Aaron Sorkin. I just love that movie. It feels good.
It makes me feel good when I watch. It makes
me forget how gross everything is. That's really good. But god,
there's so many primary colors is great. Yes, Wag the
(23:30):
dog is great. I mean I could do a thousand.
The Contender Contender with Jeff Bridges as a shark sandwich
eating president is like the greatest character.
Speaker 1 (23:44):
A president I think in a movie.
Speaker 2 (23:47):
Okay, next question, who is someone you like across the aisle?
Speaker 3 (23:53):
Oh? I have so many. Billy Long, a former kind
of maga Republican congressman from Missouri who became the Commissioner
of the IRS and Trump appointed him Commissioner of the
IRS in his second term. One of the funniest guys
I know, a bibliophile, huge fan of his, and also
(24:15):
Tom Cole, the Oklahoma chairman of the House Appropriations Committee,
also one of the smartest guys I've met, and a
voracious reader, an expert in history. I would say those
two come to mind immediately. Love it.
Speaker 2 (24:28):
Okay, Finally, how do we save our democracy, Steve, Well.
Speaker 3 (24:33):
By doing what we're doing now, more conversations. We have
to elevate our discourse. We have to reduce our reliance
on algorithms and social media. We've got to learn how
to talk to one another again. And most important, stop
like reading posts on social media. But read books. And
I mean it, like yeah, full books kind of rejuvenate
(24:56):
our critical thinking skills and rewire our rings to understand
that some issues need three hundred pages to understand like
a quick post on social media.
Speaker 1 (25:06):
Would you recommend the Stoics.
Speaker 3 (25:09):
I oh, definitely read the Stoics. When you're finished reading
the Einstein Conspiracy, I definitely go to that's right, the Stoics.
Speaker 2 (25:17):
Yes, Steve Israel, thanks so much and I'll see you
back at Cornell soon.
Speaker 1 (25:21):
I'm sure I.
Speaker 3 (25:22):
Can't wait, and let's reconvene after the holidays and talk
about the number of retirements that we witness.
Speaker 1 (25:29):
Oh, I love it. Okay, it's a date. You'll come back,
all right.
Speaker 3 (25:31):
I'd love to thank you.
Speaker 1 (25:32):
Thanks Steve. Bye, Thanks to Steve. And that's it for
me at Talking Politics. We'll see you next week.
Speaker 2 (25:41):
Off the Cup is a production of iHeart Podcasts as
part of the Reason Choice Network.
Speaker 1 (25:45):
If you want more, check out the.
Speaker 2 (25:47):
Other Reason Choice podcasts, Politics with Jamel Hill and Native
Land Pod. For Off the Cop, I'm your host, Se Cup.
Editing and sound design by Derek Clements. Our executive producers
are me Se Cop, Lauren Hanson, and Lindsay Hoffman. Rate
and review wherever you get your podcasts, follow or subscribe
for new episodes every Wednesday.
Host
S.E. Cupp
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