The Coaching Carousel - Firings, Patience, and Perspective

Thad Levine and Ryan McDonough are joined by former NFL GM Tom Telesco to break down the latest wave of coaching firings across sports. From Penn State to the Tennessee Titans, the guys discuss why tenure is shorter than ever, how pressure from ownership shapes decisions, and when patience can actually pay off. Plus, they dive into the GM/coach dynamic, quarterback development timelines, and make their MLB and NBA season predictions.

 

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:04):
Welcome back to Rosters to Rings everyone. I am Ryan mcdonoughk,
joined as always by fad Levine, and we have one
of our favorites. He's a regular on this program. You
know him as the former general manager of the Chargers
and the Raiders. That is Tom to LESCo. So we'll
hear from Tom in a minute. A lot going on
in the NFL world, in the college football world as well.

(00:25):
James Franklin shockingly fired at Penn State on a three
game losing streak with a biot approaching fifty million dollars.
We'll get into that as well. But that and Tom
and I want to start this show by talking about
the process of firing coaches. Hiring coaches. It is nuanced,
it's not always fair. There are a number of different

(00:45):
layers that go into these decisions. We identified a few
of the keys. Expectations. What are the expectations coming into
the job, obviously wins and losses, How did a coach perform?
Did a coach lose the locker room or the clubhouse?
In Major League Baseball, was there a feud with a
star player? Did somebody need to be the scapegoat for organization?

(01:06):
And was there a transgression, and then the big one
was there a conflict with the owner. That happens a lot.
Despite winning records, you know, performance on the field or court,
you know, guys do get fired for different reasons. So
that's where I want to start the show. I know
you've studied this and that. One of the things that
I think stood out to Tom and I when we
were looking at the numbers is it's one thing to say, well,

(01:27):
these coaches get paid a lot of money, which they do,
and they're hired to be fired. These guys get fired
all the time, which they do. The three of us
have been hired and fired as general managers, so we
understand that better than anybody. But that the numbers you
came up with as far as the average tenure for
these head coaches and managers was pretty shocking to me. Yeah,
and Ryan and Tom and I just want to share

(01:48):
this with the listeners just as we start this conversation.
I was also shocked, candidly. I mean, we've lived.

Speaker 2 (01:54):
Working in these industries forever and these numbers were pretty
pretty shocking. So if you look at the average tenure
across the five major sports, we're going to include FBS football,
coaches as well. NHL head coaches have an average tenure
of one point eight years. They're the lowest. The NBA
is three years, Major League Baseball three point one years,

(02:14):
NCAA FBS head coaches three point seven years, and NFL
head coaches lead the pack at three point eight years.
So it's just staggering to me. These are coveted jobs.
A lot of these guys do get second opportunities, but
the facts are the facts. Those are the average tenures
for the per position. And by and large, when you
inherit a team, you may be turning it around. You

(02:37):
want to create a new culture, you want to create
a new paradigm of like play calling. It's tough to
do in that short period of time. And it just
goes to show how hot these seats tend to be
from the minute you get them. And so, Tom, I
wanted to start off with some kind of recent news.
We just Ryan referenced it. James Franklin loses his job
a story franchise in Penn State. What's your assessment of

(03:00):
what happened in that situation.

Speaker 3 (03:02):
First of all, those numbers are amazing to me. I
can't believe the NFL is the model of stability when
it comes to head coaching or manager changes, and I
think college is a little bit different than professional sports.
But with the James Franklin situation, I actually wasn't shocked
at the timing of it and watching when they played

(03:22):
out here against UCLA. It was a game that we're
watching here more just because of being a Southern California
and watching how that game played out and seeing the
shocking look on not only James Franklin's face, but really
their players in the sideline, you just had the feel
that maybe it's time. And I think we've seen it
with all different head coaches and different teams. I think

(03:43):
there's sometimes you can be in one place for too long.
I mean he's there for twelve years. That's a long time,
even at the college level, and I think there's a
shelf life for coaches no matter your success. And watching
some of his press conferences the last couple of weeks,
it just seemed like he was a coach that he
was kind of ready to move on, like the constant
negativity starts to wear you down. He took a program

(04:07):
and really was the bridge between the Joe Bratno era
and where they are now because as you remember, when
the Joe Bratno era ended, they were on probation for
a couple of years for the Jerry Sandusky situation, and
that's when Bill O'Brien was there. So they're on probation
for a couple of years, you know, lost a lot
of scholarships, couldn't go to any bowl games. And even

(04:27):
then you heard about there's the paternal people and then
there's this divide and then they're the next head coach,
when at that time was Bill O'Brien. And honestly, actually
today I'm driving up to lax and it's raining today,
so in southern California, nobody can drive in the rain.
So the drive took a long time. So I'm flipping
around the radio and LeVar Arrington was on one of

(04:48):
the shows this morning, and you know, nobody knows Penn
State football better than he does, and he talks about
even now, there's still a divide between the paternal people
and the head coach, you know, which is James Franklin
right now with everything that James had done, so I
think for James Franklin, I think that just wears you
out after a while. And I know you know, he
did a great job, you know, getting that program back

(05:09):
up and running at a high level, that number two
ranked team in the country for a bit this year.
But then you know his record against top ten opponents,
his record against other Big ten teams that are ranked
the top ten, not where it would expect it to be.
And whenever your performance doesn't equal or even exceed your expectations,
change happens. And I think that's why we're seeing that

(05:30):
at Penn State right now.

Speaker 2 (05:31):
Now.

Speaker 3 (05:32):
James Frank will land on his feet somewhere, probably very
in a good job at some point. But you know,
with all the work he did there, like I said,
sometimes you just feel like, between the head coach, the
ad administrators, boosters, you could probably be at one place
for too long. I think twelve years was enough for him.
He'll move on and Penn State will move on.

Speaker 2 (05:51):
And Tom, I think maybe one thing that we left
off the list that Ryan read off at the beginning
is exactly what you said. Sometimes things just run their course.
You know, relationships aren't meant to be never ending. In
as much as three years is a short time, sometimes
twelve years is a long time. And you know you're
reiterating the message. I think, as people who worked in

(06:12):
professional sports, our initial reaction anytime somebody gets you know,
let go, as you're kind of sensitive and you want
to defend them. But as you dig into the numbers
that you referenced, I mean, he was four and twenty
one against top ten teams, he was one in eighteen
against top ten big ten teams, Like those are staggering
numbers over a period of time, and those tell a story,
and so you look at it and you think, hey,

(06:33):
he did get a real opportunity here. And I think
this is something that Ryan said at the outset of
the show, which is they had exceptionally high expectations and
they were ranked second, you know, which was commensurate with
those high expectations. When you lose back to back games
against teams who you're favored by more than twenty points,
which was the first time that that had happened since
nineteen seventy eight, like sometimes you know, the repercussions.

Speaker 1 (06:56):
For that absolutely, Thad. And one of the other things
that I think interesting is you went over the numbers
for average tenure. I bet if we put the median
tenure in there, it's even shorter. Because on the average
average of all of them at the high end across sports,
you have guys like Eric Spolstra and Steve Kerr. In
the NBA it was Greg Popovich was the dean of
coaches across all sports. Tom, in your league, Mike Tomlin,

(07:19):
you know Harbaugh, John Harbard Down and Baltimore. Those guys
dragged the average way up because they've been there so
long and had so much success. There are a number
of other guys like Brian Callahan and Tennessee who didn't
get to the middle of the year too, you know,
just kind of won and done. And it's really remarkable
to me and something I wanted to get your take on, Tom,
because my alma mater. I can't believe this University of

(07:41):
North Carolina tar Heels. But after five or six games
on a bye week, they're talking about is it time
to move on from Bill Belichick? And there's been this
circus like atmosphere around the Carolina program to the extent
that the Chancellor of the University of North Carolina was
with Bill Belichick on a Monday press conference coming off
of buy I don't know if I've ever seen that
in college football, but Tom, I want to get your

(08:03):
take on that, as much from a historical perspective as
from a unc specific perspective, because it seems to me
that I don't know if it's social media and the
twenty four to seven news cycle or the amount of
money these guys are making and how much money boosters
are willing to throw at bad hires or requestable decisions
to kind of make them go away and restart. My guest,

(08:24):
Tom's probably some combination of all of it, but it
seems to me, looking at it objectively, that the snap
decision and pressure cycle on a head coach, under fire,
an athletic director, even to some extent a general manager,
that is coming quicker and more viciously than it ever
has in the past.

Speaker 3 (08:41):
It certainly seems that way. And with Brian Callahan, he
got six games with his quarterback cam Ward, who they
just drafted number one overall, So it's hard to put
together a plan, a development plan for the quarterback game
for the team in six games. So it does feel
like that there's less patience now than it used to be.
I don't know if that's true or not, of it

(09:02):
certainly feels that way, and everybody just wants everything done immediately.
But this is the other this is the flip side
of this is you look at what Mike Rabel is
doing in New England right now, what Liam Cohen is
doing in Jacksonville right now. If you're another owner, you're like, well, look,
they just walked into their situations which weren't great when
they walked in, and look where they have their team.

(09:22):
So you know, owners see that, and not only owners
see that, but fans see that. So it's hard to
preach patients when you can look across the street and
you see somebody doing it much quicker. But there's certainly
situations that you need to have the patients to build it.
But it's just at every level and probably every professional sport,
very few owners can handle that pressure, that the external

(09:45):
pressure from the fan base that want to put up
with the hard times. I mean, we know about Dan
Campbell and we start off I think Owen eleven or
Owen nine or something like that, and there's about three
or four o their coaches the same thing. They start
off fer to start their careers as first time head coaches,
and you have to weather the storm, and it's easier

(10:06):
said than done. It's very difficult to do to weather
the storm, especially if you start off you know, one
to five oh one six, the way the Jets are
right now, to start off like that, but that's what
you know. If you're going to lead an organization, whether
you're a GM or you're an owner, you have to
have some of that. You have to have some big
picture and some perspective on what it's going to take
to get there.

Speaker 2 (10:26):
And I think it's so vital to maintain perspective, like
when you set up your roster for the season. As
a general manager, we inherently know what the talent is
that we're offering up to our head coach or our manager.
I think it's really not fair to them when we
then hold them accountable to a expectation that none of

(10:46):
us truly had. Like I think we have to own
the quality the resources we're providing them and then hold
them accountable accordingly, Tom, one more question I have for
you about the college football space is I just am wondering,
and this is to Ryan's point. Earlier are teams having
to make decisions earlier in the seasons based upon the

(11:07):
transfer portal? Because I wonder if you can't really wait
till the end of the season, make a coaching change
in a time in which there's a frenzy of putting
together your roster for the next year. It seems like
you have to have your head coach in place by
that point and you no longer can wait till the
end of the season. I wonder if that factored at
all into Penn State's decision, and if that's factoring at

(11:28):
all into the UNC situation and how the scrutiny is
levied so hard this early in the season.

Speaker 3 (11:36):
Well, I think in the Penn State situation, and because
they're doing it so early, I don't think I have
much to do with the portal, and now that they
have changed the portal rules, but there is still going
to be that. I think it's a two week open
portal in mid January. But I think in Penn State situation,
I just think, you know, whoever made the decision, and
it's probably not the AD is probably more boosters around

(11:58):
the AD. They knew what the expectations were going into
the season, which were huge. Drew Roler could have come
out in the draft last year, their quarterback. You could
have come out in the draft last year. He decided
to stay in school. They have two big time running backs.
They went out in the portal and got the best
receivers that they could buy at the time. They have
a good offensive line. This Their expectation was a national

(12:19):
championship this year. So when you go to UCLA and
lose to where UCLA was at that time, CLA looks
a lot better now than they did three weeks ago.
But when you lose at UCLA and then lose Northwestern
at home, and the fan base was already screaming for change,
and they've been screaming for change, I think for a
number of years, just because James Franklin hasn't won enough games.

(12:40):
But we also know fan bases. They're passionate, but they
don't always have great perspective on what he's done there.
I just think they were tired of the noise and
they wanted to make a change, maybe even thinking that
that they could spark the team a little bit. Now,
Drew Raller's out for the year, so they're gonna have
a tough time getting back into this. But I think
you will start seeing some changes potentially, I'd say in
November for teams for that very reason, because of the

(13:02):
portal because you have to get your ducks in a row.

Speaker 2 (13:05):
Now.

Speaker 3 (13:05):
Just because you make that change, you may not know
your head coaches, and that obviously effects recruiting a lot
and just being out here in southern California, and you know,
just I spend a lot of time with high school
football out here and watch how recruiting is right now,
and there are so many players that are committed to
schools that will decommit because there's head coaching changes. There's

(13:27):
so many head coaching changes that will take place after
the season. There's so many portal changes that are happening.
As far as players transferring, There's just so much movement
in college football. But as far as Penn State, I
just think they got tired of the noise and just
want to make this move right now.

Speaker 1 (13:43):
In UCLA, you bring up the Bruins, another historic program
made an early season change with a Bruins legend, Toshan Foster.
Their former running back was a short time head coach.
It did not go great and they moved on from
him early in the season, and that's another reason to
do it or think about making a head coaching change.
Seems like the current group Tom has done relatively well
I know Rick new Hazel's son ecceiveing a blanket on

(14:05):
his first name, but he's seemingly getting a lot of
attention as the offensive coordinator. He got carried off the
field after the first game. And then another example that
the touch on an earlier point you made, Tom, is
what Kurt Signetti is doing at Indiana.

Speaker 2 (14:19):
That may be.

Speaker 1 (14:20):
Unfair to the rest of the coaches, but that I
think if I'm an athletic director in the Big Ten
for decades, I looked at the SEC and the Southern
teams in general. If you want to throw in Texas
and a few others who weren't in the SEC at
the time but won national championships, USC dominate if you
look at the national champions going back a couple decades
in college football, but the last couple of years the

(14:42):
Michigan Wolverines led by Jim Harbaugh and then last year
Ohio State led by Ryan Day. So I think with
nil with the money, that those Big Ten schools in
particular have the pressure mounts. And then they look at
Kurt Signetti and say, wait a minute, this guy wasn't
hired as a head coach till he was in his sixties.
Comes from James Madison and in year one as Indiana,
of all places in the college Football Playoff, now the

(15:05):
ranked in the top three in the country. So we
can debate, the three of us can debate whether that's
fair or not, but the reality is that is what
owners and athletic directors and chancellors and boosters look at,
and that is the standard where if you underperform expectations,
and that was the key to me that I think
in this Penn State James Franklin situation, they were among
the top ranked teams, if not the top ranked team

(15:26):
in the country coming in the season. The expectations were
sky high. The other Big Ten teams have played very
well this year and over the past couple of years
they fell short, So I think that led them to
have a quick trigger and pull the plug on James Franklin.

Speaker 2 (15:38):
Yeah, with that question, I think he got a fair shake.
He was there for twelve seasons, the record did not
support his arguments, and then the expectations were just so
unfortunately he fell so short this year, and I think
at that point a change needs to be made. And
you know, I think another thing Tom alluded to this
earlier is just you know, there's a point in which

(15:59):
your mess which sometimes does get stale, and there needs
to be a new voice in the locker room. And
that very well maybe the case. He had a twelve
year run as we learned earlier, that's like three and
a half times longer than the average person. And he
was under you know, the spotlight in one of the
biggest programs in the country. So like to do that
and do it there is a tremendous accomplishment for him.

(16:19):
We probably should be focused less on why he lost
the job, but all the accomplishments he had along the way.
Tom I wanted to shift the attention. We had one
other firing this week. You know, you referenced it earlier.
Bill Callahan loses his job with the Tennessee Titans. You
already said he didn't have much of a runway there
with cam Ward their number one pick this year. How

(16:40):
do you assess that situation and how does it differ
from the Penn State circumstances.

Speaker 3 (16:45):
This one is just so unique, This whole situation with
in the last really the last three years with the Titans.
I mean, okay, follow me on this. This one is
just so unique. So they had this is three years ago.
They had John Robinson as a GM, Mike Rabel as
a head coach, both really well respected in the industry
and had a four year run where they you know,

(17:07):
won some division titles, made the playoffs, and then had
two years back to back with losing wreckers. But their
body at work was really really good. I don't know
what happened behind the scenes there, but ownership decided, you
know what we're gonna We're gonna let the GM go
and keep the head coach. Okay, fine, that happens all
the time. They make the move, but then they hire

(17:28):
Ran Cartin as GM. Okay, so Ran comes in and
after one year he decides or ownership decides, we're going
to fire Mike Rabel. You know, maybe he wanted to
have his own head coach. I don't really know. But
now the new GM now fires the head coach, Mike Rabel,
and then they hire Brian Callahan. And at the same time,

(17:48):
and this is where it gets a little bit unique.
The assistant GM who's there under Ran Carthin he gets
promoted to president obviously, I guess by ownership. Now he's
above the GM, and then the next year he fires
the GM ran Carthin and hires his own GM, Mike Borganzi,
and then they still have Callahan as the head coach.

(18:10):
And then the new GM or the new president or
the ownership they fire Callahan. So it's a constant back
and forth between we'll fire the GM ware the head
coach for the GM forare the head coach. So there's
you talk about no stability in an organization and that
that's where and that's why their roster kind of is
where it is right now. I mean this year. I
mean I watched the Titans Raiders game this weekend because

(18:32):
I have an interest in the Raiders obviously, and it
was a hard watch if you're a Titans fan. It
was just it was really it was uncompetitive. There was
just no juice, no energy. It was a hard watch.
I actually mentioned to my wife, I'm like, this is
hard for me to watch. I can't imagine if you're
a Titans fan. I think that probably led to right now, Hey,
we're making this move because bad losses kind of end

(18:53):
up there. You lose a Northwestern a home, that's going
to affect a lot of people, like Penn State did so.
But the for the head coach, I mean the roster
isn't anywhere near where it needs to be, and that's
because of all these changes. Changes in head coaches means
the scheme changes, changed in GMS means the process changes.
And they're just a huge talent disparity with the Titans
versus the rest of the league. They have a solid

(19:16):
interior offensive line. The two tackle spots are struggling. They
have a first round draft pick at right tackle, who
or jac Latham. Some of us thought he's a very
good player, but maybe he's more of a guard than
a tackle. Maybe doesn't have the feet to play outside,
and that's kind of showing up with him right now.
They put big money into the left tackle, Dan Moore,

(19:36):
who didn't have a great career early part of his
career at Pittsburgh, and they put a lot of money
into him. He was an inconsistent player at Pittsburgh. So
the offensive line hasn't really panned out yet. They just
don't have a lot of pieces on offense around the
quarterback yet. And defensively, they've taken a lot of shortcuts
and parties regime changes. I think people trying to get
things started quickly. So you know, we need a number

(19:58):
one corner. Well, we'll try Raide four and then pay
Ladarius Sneed Jerious Need. It's a lot of resources in
just one player when you have a whole roster you
need to build out. Now he hasn't played way as
well as he did in Kansas City. But again, it's
the bigger part is they use a lot of resources
into one player when the whole team needs to be
built out. So it's just a difficult situation there. Now

(20:19):
they're going to start over again. I don't know if
there's so now. Right now they have a president, they
have a GM and a head coach, and those eventually
have a head coach and those three will kind of
run the team. A lot of times the NFL is
a GM and the head coach partnership. This has be
more of like a three person I guess three person
headed monster, if you want to look at it that way.
I don't know if there's any precedent that I know
that The Nuggets have a unique, unorthodox, you know, for

(20:42):
an office structure. I don't know if there's any parallels there.
But with the Titans, there's just now it's a combination
of the roster. It's going to take two three years
to get this roster where it needs to go, and
at some point there's gonna have to be some stability
at both the front office and the head coach to
get you there.

Speaker 1 (20:58):
Well, I think two or three years, Tom. That gives
me idea for a TV show Game of Thrones Nashville
or the Music City Massacre. I'm still work shopping the title,
but it seems like warring factions, you know, at the end,
everybody seems to get killed, and just say they bring
in a new crop and let's let them fight it out.
But since you asked about the Denver Nuggets, I think
they're a good example. And then that I want to

(21:20):
get your take on the Milwaukee Brewers. You and I
talked about Milwaukee as well, But with the Denver Nuggets,
who you just brought up, Tom, a recent example of
a team that had a superstar, top executive and Tim Connolly,
who drafted Nikole Jokic, probably the best draft pick in
NBA history based on where he was selected in the
second round. Now a three time MVP, almost wanted again

(21:42):
last year, widely regard as the best player in the world.
So Tim Connelly drafts him. He drafts a number of
other talented players or trades for them Jamal Murray, Gary Harris,
Aaron Gordon, Michael Porter Junior, etc. And then his contracts
up with Denver and the Cronkys and there to they
have a sports empire. The owners of the Denver Nuggets.

(22:03):
They also own Arsenal, They own the Rams in your
league town. They own a bunch of teams, so they
are worried about precedent and things like that. But anyways,
the Minnesota Timberwolves, led by new ownership and Mark Laurie
and Alex Rodriguez, offered Tim Connolly a lot of money.
Denver makes some kind of an offer, but it's not
close to what Minnesota's offer is, and so Connolly takes

(22:26):
the Timberwolves offer, moves his family to Minneapolis, and since
then that you know, you live there. They've been to
the Western Conference Finals twice in the past two years.
They've only been once ever in the history of the franchise,
which goes back decades and then circling back to Denver,
they win the championship in twenty twenty three. Do the
Nuggets with the core of the team that Tim Connolly
brought in Less than two years later, their head coach,

(22:49):
Michael Malone, and the general manager who was escalated and replaced,
Tim Connolly and Calvin Booth. Those two guys are at
each other's throats and we talk about power struggles with
the Titans. That is common across sports. Unfortunately, Josh Cronkey
and his father Stan, who run the Nuggets, basically looked
at both sides and said, you know what, I'm not
going to pick a side. We're going to fire both
of you guys. You're both done. We're going to start over.

(23:11):
And that's what happened. And so I bring it up
to that because there are different examples of organizations that
you know, get a lot of things wrong consistently, others
that get things right some of the time and wrong
other times. I think that's a majority of the organizations.
And then one that really stood out to me that
after talking to you about it, because they're currently playing
in the National League Championship Series is the Milwaukee Brewers,

(23:32):
who seem to have moved on from some of their
top guys, but you know, despite the departures, seem to
be doing quite well well.

Speaker 2 (23:38):
You know, listening to your guys' stories, there are some
common themes here. But you know, Tom, when you just
delineate the amount of change that has happened in Tennessee,
like no wonder they've struggled. You know, it's impossible with
the backtrop of that level of instability to have consistency
on the field. Similarly, Ryan might take away of the
nuggets which is so unique? Is it is so that

(24:00):
one individual has such a profound impact. We all can
probably cite the people in our respective leagues. They make
the Hall of Fame, right, These are guys who transcend
systems and they just whenever they show up, they tend
to win. And you know, in baseball, I'm I'm thinking
of guys like John Hart and Pat Gillick and theo Epstein.
You know, these guys just kind of won in multiple

(24:21):
spots and they seem to be individuals who led almost
immediately to success. Well, Milwaukee's kind of the other end
of that spectrum. Milwaukee is what we all aspire to
build when we're executives, which is an environment where all
the employees just raise their level of excellence and excel.
And so you know, I'm just going to cite a
few people who have left Milwaukee who are excellent performers.

(24:43):
These guys are undoubtedly competitive advantages in the sport. Derek Johnson,
was one of the foremost pitching coaches in all of
Major League Baseball, left them after twenty eighteen to go
join a division rival in the Cincinnati Reds, and you know,
Chris hook has taken over there and all they've done
since then, from that date to this is they've been
a top five pitching staff in the major leagues. David

(25:06):
Stearns leaves to go become the general manager of the
New York Mets. David Stearns is regarded as one of
the biggest competitive advantages as a GM in Major League Baseball.
All the team has done is finish in first place
every year since he left. And then lastly, Craig Counsel,
who is regarded as one of the best managers in
all of baseball, leaves for another division rival to go

(25:27):
to the Chicago Cubs, and since that day they have
ultimately won the division, the same division that they are in,
and their manager has won the Manager of the Year
in twenty twenty four and probably is in position to
win it again this year. So I guess my conclusion
as I look at that is all three of those
guys who left are exceptionally talented individuals. They all left

(25:49):
and somehow Milwaukee. I'm not going to sit here and
say they didn't miss a beat, because I'm sure there
were voids to fill there, but there was a kind
of sense of the next man. Pat Murphy has done
an excellent job in the club house for the Milwaukee Brewers,
Matt Arnold has availed himself as one of the best
general managers in the game, and Chris Hook has had
tremendous success. So I think we all aspire to build
those situations which have these systems that transcend to any

(26:12):
one individual. If you don't have a Tim Conley, if
you don't have a Pat Gillick, if you don't have
a Mike Tomlin, you probably need a system that works well.
The Milwaukee Brewers are that example in Major League Baseball.

Speaker 3 (26:24):
That's pretty cool. Is just as far as just like
professional development, career development of people in your organization and
then have them move on and then be successful. That's
that's just the mark of a really strong develop organization because,
as you guys know, is as GM of a professional team,
I mean, you have to develop the people that are
below you, fully knowing that they may leave and go

(26:47):
help somebody else. But that's part of our job is
to develop. I mean I was developed as a as
a young scout by Bill Pollying. And Bill did that
with a lot of staffers, the GM at the Browns,
at Andrew, i mean Bill's son, Chris Polling. There's a
whole bunch of us that he mentored within his kind
of his system and his philosophies. And then we kind

(27:08):
of take that and to move on. But that's just
a sign of a strong organization the way the Brewers
do that.

Speaker 1 (27:12):
I think we all benefited from that that, you know,
with the Boston Celtics, where I started out, a historic
organization led by a great executive and Danny Ainge like Tom,
you know, with Indianapolis being around Bill Pollion. From our
group with the Celtics, we had at least three guys
off the top of my head on that staff, myself,
Chris Wallace who went on to become the general manager

(27:33):
of the Memphis Grizzlies, and Darryl Morey, who went on
to be the GM of the Houston Rockets now runs
the Philadelphia seventy six ers. On the coaching side Tom Thibodeau,
who all our listeners know who Tom is given his
work in Chicago, Minnesota and now New York. And then
Lawrence Frank, who was an assistant replaced Tom just for
one year, got the head coaching job in Detroit with
the Pistons, now runs basketball operations for the LA Clippers.

(27:57):
You know, all those guys came off one stand off
with the Celtics and that, you know, talking to you
a little bit about I think most of our listeners
remember you, certainly from Minnesota, mainly from before that going
back to your Texas days, but a lot of them
probably don't realize the younger ones is you know your
start with the color rock brought a Rockies and just
how loaded that staff was that you were part of

(28:19):
as a young employee getting your start in the business.

Speaker 2 (28:22):
Yeah, I just want to echo what you guys are saying,
like such appreciation I have for my first opportunity. I
worked with Dan O'Dowd was the general manager of the
Colorado Rockies, and we ended up building out a staff
there and that was a time where I think we
only had fifteen people working in the front office. And
I got a chance to work with a lot of
general managers, guys who wanted to be general managers. Jerry Depoto,
who's still in the playoffs with the Seattle Mariners right now,

(28:45):
Josh Burns, Michael Hill, Matt Clintech, Billy Eppler, John Daniels,
a guy who went on to become a manager, who's
been on our show, Scott's Service, And it's like you
just look back on those times and you know, getting
to work with so many people who went on to
become general managers. I've often thought there should be a
wing of every sports Hall of Fame for the guy
who has cultivated more people who have gone on to

(29:07):
have success than other people have, because it's such it
impacts so many people's lives. And you know, Tom, I
think we all grew up in an era where people
talked about Bill Walsh and his family tree, and then
the incredible number of people who somehow have worked for
the Washington Commanders, past tense Redskins who went on to
become successful head coaches. Nowadays, these these leaders who cultivate

(29:31):
these environments where you can become the best version of
yourself and then promote your candidacy, whether it's with that
own organization or someone else in the industry. I think
they're so magnanimous and they're so uniquely skilled, and I
think they deserve real consideration in the Hall of Fame.

Speaker 3 (29:46):
You know, we're all a product of who we learned from.
So like for me, like I learned the ex'es and
O is a football from my high school coaches and
college coaches. And then I learn everything about the NFL
roster building, team building, everything that goes into running an
NFL team from Bill Pulling and Chris Pulling. If I
had to come up in a different organization with with

(30:07):
maybe a different GM, maybe I wouldn't have learned nearly
as much. I probably wouldn't have so, And I know
when I when I first became JAM with the Chargers,
you know, I was forty forty one years old, first
time GM. About a year in I kind of looked
around and I thought to myself, I'm not doing enough
with our younger staffers, scouting assistance area scouts to kind

(30:28):
of develop and get them ready. But then I'm thinking myself, like, look,
I'm a first time GM, Like I got a lot
of stuff going on. Like you know, with Bill, it
was just kind of natural. Now Bill had been in
the job for a long time. Bill could mentor us
when when he didn't even know he was mentoring us.
And then as I grew into the job and was
there longer, I'd tried to do a better job of
making sure we're developing our young our young staffers. Jojo

(30:51):
Wooden is our director player of personnel. He did a
better job than I did. I just I got caught
up in so much of the job, but what had
to be done. I kind of lost that development part.

Speaker 2 (30:59):
That's why it.

Speaker 3 (30:59):
Guess it's so hard to do, which is why Bill's
in the Hall of Fame. But it's such a big
part of not like growing the game, but just growing
your staff and with morale and trying to help everybody
kind of move up. But it's a unique skill to
have that some people have, and Bill had it. I
didn't quite have it as much, but he was tremendous
at it.

Speaker 2 (31:20):
Well.

Speaker 1 (31:20):
I think a lot of that comes with time and
experience you go into the job, the comfort of it.
I'm glad you brought up that point because I think
a lot of our listeners who have not worked for
teams probably don't realize so much of your job is
prioritization and how do you manage your time because you
can't do all of it. You can't be all things
to all people. I think the three of us who
came up as grinders and kind of started at the

(31:40):
bottom of the organizations then climb the ladder rung by run.
We're used to rolling up our sleeves and trying to
do everything, and then you realize pretty quickly when you're
in that top chair you just can't. There aren't enough
hours in the day. You have to delegate, you have
to mentor you have to assign things to certain people
and live with the results. Tom One interesting trend that
that and I we're talking about in the NFL that
we'd love to get your opinion on. Are you know

(32:02):
we talked early in the show about how quick the
decision cycle moves, especially on head coaches. It also seems
to move reve to quickly on quarterbacks, especially young quarterbacks.
I think the best example now, and we're not trying
to pick on any one team, but what was the
Cleveland Browns with what they've gone through Sean Watson situation,

(32:23):
the kind of revolving door, you know, Shader Sanders Dylan Gabriel,
all of that and the cruel irony of it. Tom,
as a sports fan who follows the NFL relatively closely
but doesn't know it nearly as well as you, is
the guy that they deemed as the guy years ago.
Baker Mayfield is now down in Tampa Bay, dominating the
league and on the short list of MVP candidates. So, Tom,

(32:44):
what do you attribute that to? Mac Jones? What he's
done in San Francisco, I think would shock a lot
of Patriots fans who are really tough on him as
a young player. Why do you think some of these
guys who are getting a chance with either second, third,
or even fourth team, maybe in the case of Baker Mayfield,
or things are finally starting to click and they're starting
to thrive in new environments.

Speaker 3 (33:04):
You know, sometimes it's just right place, right time, right situation,
right coordinator, right talent around them. And then also the
fact that every player kind of develops at a different
at a different speed. And yeah, I think we're seeing
between Sam Donald justin well, probably not so much justin
fields at this point, because Sam Donald, mac Jones, Daniel Jones,

(33:25):
Baker Mayfield. It's almost like that, like that that rehab process, like,
all right, it didn't work at my first team. It
could have been for a number of reasons, but the
production just wasn't there. And you look at what Daniel
Jones did didn't work out in New York. He got
released during the middle of the season last year. Is
a point where when I was with the Raiders, we
tried to sign and put him on the active roster,

(33:47):
just trying to improve our quarterback situation. He decided to
go sign the practice squad with Minnesota and essentially rehab
a little bit like a professional football rehab, learned something different,
learned from Kevin O'Connell, and then be a free agent
and then try and find the place where I have
the best chance of success, the team with the with
the most talent, and the team where I can go

(34:07):
actually compete for a job. And Daniel Jones goes to
the Colts with a chance to compete for the job,
and he wins the job, and you know, he's doing
extremely well. They're with five and one Baker Mayfield. Pretty
kind of similar as far as I got to find
a place to go where I can compete for a job.
And then obviously he took a couple more teams to
get there, but he gets to Tampa with the right
players around him, the right coordinator, and he's taken off.

(34:29):
But everybody develops at a different amount of time. Is
there a lot of patience when you draft a quarterback high? No,
there probably isn't, which is why you probably see some
of these changes, probably a little bit quicker than you'd like.
But if it's not working, it's not working from from
that team standpoint. So trying to figure out where that
that balance point is of when you when you make
a move on a quarterback and play somebody else is difficult.

(34:53):
But we're certainly seeing Like all those quarterbacks we mentioned,
they're all high draft picks, so they all had talent
in college. But sometimes you just got to get in
the right environment. And when I look at say, you know,
Daniel Jones with the Colts, he has a head coach
and Shane Stiken, who is an awesome offensive play caller.

(35:15):
He has an outstanding running back behind him, Jonathan Taylor.
You know that's this sa Kwon Barkley from the Giants.
Essentially very similar players, a really good offensive line. They
have a tight end from Penn State, Tyler Warren, who
was a rookie who was outstanding. They have a good
receiving course, he has a lot of talent around him,
and he's playing very well. So the big thing is

(35:36):
just got to get in the right spot. You know,
a nice stable program. And unfortunately, when you're say you're
a team picking first in the draft, that usually means
you've had a pretty poor year of the year before
and it may not be the most stable situation. And
we've seen some of the recent first first overall picks
a quarterback. Those head coaches haven't lasted very long because
I think people expect results immediately when you draft the

(35:56):
quarterback number one, and it's not always going to be immediate,
so you see those changes happen. But I got to
assume this has happened over the years, last thirty forty years.
It just seems like it's happening more now than it
ever has.

Speaker 2 (36:09):
Right. I was blown away by your reference to Baker
Mayfield because as a fan, once again not somebody who
studies at the NFL like you do, Tom, it seemed
like he was the cautionary tale out of the draft
of like, this is how you don't draft a quarterback
high and set him up to not succeed, and no,
all of a sudden he's on the other side of
the factru where I'm guessing every scout room is, hey,

(36:32):
go find us the next Baker Mayfield, and that's where
you get all these guys getting these second and third opportunities. Tom,
I was wondering if you could take us into your
decision when you were a general manager, you draft Justin
Herbert in the first round? Refresh us like, how quickly
did you get him on the field and what went
into your decision as to when was the appropriate time

(36:52):
to balance the notion of development. I think Green Bay
has always given so much credit for Aaron Rodgers sitting
behind Brett and then Jordan Loves sitting behind Aaron Rodgers.
Most teams don't do it that way. I think ideally
you would love to do it that way. But to
your point, most guys are getting drafted in the first
round now are playing if not week one, you know
Dart's playing week three or four. How was you How

(37:15):
did you approach it with Justin Herbert?

Speaker 3 (37:18):
It's really interesting because you know there's different ways to
look at should they sit immediately, should they sit behind
a veteran first, should they play early? I think it's
different for every situation and different for every quarterback. Now,
with Justin Herbert, the plan was, believe it or not,
was he was going to sit behind Tarrod Taylor. We

(37:38):
had signed Tyrod from Buffalo. He'd actually gone to the
Pro Bowl, I think with Buffalo the year before. Anthony
Lynn knew Tyrod Taylor very well. Tarad is outstanding leader
in tangible's pretty mobile quarterback, quick release like. He has
some some starter level skills, and the thought was we're

(38:00):
gonna sign him. Let Justin kind of learn from Taylor,
and Taylor was going to play play it out now.
We didn't have a specific Hey, we want Justin to
sit for a year. We never really talked about time frame,
but at least initially in training camp and this was COVID,
so in training camp, to Rod was the number one,

(38:22):
Justin was the number two. Justin had some just coming
from a college offense to a pro offense. There's just
a lot of transition. There's a lot of you know,
just little things like taking a snap under center, the
play calls coming in. It's no longer we're in college
where a lot of teams just hold up a big
billboard in a sideline with four pictures on there, and
you picked in one of the pictures is live, and

(38:42):
that's to play like it's the play calls are along,
you're in a huddle. The cadence is different. There's a
lot of things to learn. So we're going to take
our time with him. And Taylor was was going to
be the starter. The funny thing is we had no
preseason games that year, so he had no live work
against other teams. So we thought this was the right
move to make that Taylor is the starter number one,
and Justin will be the backup and then lo and

(39:05):
behold to Rod. Taylor in game one had a bruise
or broken ribs in game one, and then Game two
against Kansas City is when the unfortunate incident when when
he was getting some i'll say a medical procedure on
his ribs that didn't work exactly the way we had anticipated,
and Justin comes in the game drives us down for

(39:26):
a score this first drive in the game. By the way,
that was the first time any of his teammates are
coaches that'd seen him play live football because we didn't
have any preseason games. So he does that and everyone's like, okay,
it's I mean, it's not hard to see sometimes when
you have a guy. But he did that really with
no warning. This is about a minute or two before kickoff. Hey,

(39:47):
you're in, drives us down, gets a score. We end
up losing a tight game at the end, and then
the rest is history. He's in there, he plays the
rest of the year, and I think he was Rookie
of the Year. So but look, we were not smarter
than anybody else. I thought was he's going to sit
for a while he wasn't ready. Well guess what, he
was ready, which is why there's a lot of amazing

(40:07):
things about Justin. But the fact that one training camp,
no preseason games, and he's out there in Week two
against the Kansas City Chiefs and playing at a high level.
It's just an amazing feat. But every situation a little
bit different, just based on where you are. Like with
the Giants, look at this point, Jackson Dart, it probably
could help him to sit and learn, but he's their
best quarterback right now, So how do you not play

(40:30):
your best quarterback? And that's what happens a lot of
times with these moves.

Speaker 1 (40:35):
Well, another interesting angle there, Tom, going back to what
we were talking about earlier, is objectively looking from the outside,
it seems like there is a decent amount of pressure
on Brian dabol the head coach in the GM. I
think Joe showns his name. There's pressure on those guys. So,
as a head coach or an executive, if you have
a young player who's developing and you can point to say, well, now,

(40:55):
I know the when lost record isn't what we hope
they would be, but we're going to build around this guy.
What every team is looking for. And frankly, as a
head coach or executive, that can buy you more time
and give you a longer runway to kind of, you know,
try to finish what you started, Tom, or to kind
of see through, you know, the promising start to a
young player's career.

Speaker 3 (41:15):
Yeah, and you have to, like, you know, if you
draft a quarterback high in the first round and you
already have a veteran there and you decide to start
the veteran, you have to know with that veteran quarterback,
the first interception, the first loss, there's gonna be so
much external pressure and internal pressure even in the building. Hey,
we draft the quarterback in the first round. He's talented,

(41:38):
it's time to get him out there. And which is
why I know with Justin Herbert, I did not want
to say, hey, we want to sit him for a year.
We want to sit him for ten or twelve weeks
like because things happen, things change. So with the Giants,
you know, as soon as Russell Wilson has a has
an off series and off half and the fans start booing,

(41:59):
they want the number one pick in there. We've seen
this play out plenty of times with other teams. You
draft a quarterback high, people want to see him play
inside the building and outside the building. So the pressure
comes on and they're in there quickly and Jackson dark
can handle it. But there's some other quarterbacks if you
play them through, really it's just hard to handle. But

(42:19):
you have to know that going in.

Speaker 2 (42:21):
And I think we keep adding to the list of
reasons why we make decisions, but pressure certainly is one
of them. The owner applies a lot of pressure to
the general manager. The general manager in turn applies a
lot of pressure to the head coach, who in turn
applies a lot of pressure to the quarterback. For instance,
in this case, and we all aspire to absorb all
of that pressure and not defray it to other people

(42:43):
and or have an impact or decision making. But we're
all human, you know. I always looked at it sometimes
in baseball when you're scrutinizing the development of a franchise
and you see them make a very dramatic turn every
three or four years that you think, oh, I guess
that must be the contract here for this guy, and
he just pitched his owner on a total new plan
that they're now embarking upon to to get the next
three to four year contract. Well, you know, the reality

(43:06):
is there is a lot of pressure that's applied to us.
We do the best we can to not defray that
to other people, be the lightning route for the whole organization,
But at times it does influence our decisions and we
start short short changing things when we know development is
the right track. But we have to give way to
the notion of what's the most competitive team I can
put on the on the field, the court, what have

(43:28):
you tonight, And it usually involves that superstar young player
who's probably not ready for the opportunity, but just has
more talent than some of the other.

Speaker 1 (43:35):
Options, and that becomes a battle at times, as you
guys know, between the front office, who said, go ahead,
play the young guys. We brought them in, we believe
in them, and the head coach says, well, wait a minute,
I'm going to be judged don wins and losses. You know,
I'm not taking a bunch of losses. If you guys
are going to fire me anyways, I'm not, you know,
trotting out a bunch of young guys getting our asses
just like the Browns right now, yeah, yeah, and then

(43:56):
you probably make a change. And even if one of
the young players said that we're is Dylan Gabriel, Shader, Sanders, whoever, Tom,
even if they developed, they're not going to develop for
me as a head coach. If I'm you know, Kevin
Stefanski in this example, right, it's gonna be the next
guy who reaped the benefits of that. And I think
that that is that is real across sports. And you know,
just Pipen we talked about earlier town. But I think
that pressure is exacerbated given how quickly some of these

(44:19):
things move. I mean, I didn't have to go back
very far when we were talking about the Tennessee Titans.
Earlier in the show. I remembered some of these names
off the top of my head. But my goodness, you
had at least four or five general managers and head
coaches since like twenty twenty one, you know, So that's
that's the reality approach sports today. You know, we had
different length tenures. I was the shortest of the GM

(44:41):
at just under five and a half years. But the
three of us those look like, you know, I don't know,
dinosaur like ages, so compared to some the opportunities, some
of these guys get or don't get where the doors
open today and it slams shut tomorrow, and the reality
is tom a lot of these cases, Unfortunately, some guys,
even if it's a very short tenure. We'll see what
happens with Brian Callahan, but some guys never get to
be head coach or GM again. And really, if you

(45:02):
look at it objectively, judging somebody on that small of
a sample size is probably not very fair to that individual.

Speaker 3 (45:08):
It's really difficult.

Speaker 2 (45:10):
Yeah, you know, you know, I I was looking at
from our last episode, we talked about the Anaheim Angels.
They're perhaps to hire their fifth manager since twenty nineteen.
That's also about the number of years there has been
since twenty nineteen. I was look at a Major League
Baseball as a whole. If you look at it, once
all the openings are filled. You know, the San Diego
Padres now have an opening. We have another eight guys
on them. Are eight teams on the market. Going into

(45:32):
twenty twenty six, fourteen teams will have managers that have
been in their posts for less than two years. There
are only thirty teams in the major leagues, fourteen of
them are going to be that short tenured. I mean it, really,
it's remarkable when you look at the numbers. Right now,
there's not a ton of job security. And I remember
when I started my career Josh Burns, who was a
mentor of mindset. Your contract is financial security, it's not

(45:53):
job security. Your job performance is your job security. And
you hope to work long enough and have enough of
a reputation that you can stay in your industry for
a while. But you're not entitled to work for one
team in perpetuity, and that's certainly playing out right now
in Major League Baseball.

Speaker 1 (46:06):
I think our advice to head coaches or gms is
rent don't buy you know, rom month to month. If
you can do it, you know, keep your furniture mobile,
you know you can, you can move somewhere else. That
one question I had for you. We're recording this show
early on in the League Championship Round, the final four
of Major League Baseball, so Tom and I would love
to get your opinion. Put you on the hot seat

(46:27):
a little bit as far as what do you think
is going to happen. You know, Seattle's off to a
lead in the ALCS, the Dodgers up early in the NLCS.
Thatad put on your your tinfoil hat and project out
a couple of weeks in the future. Who's in the
World Series, who's the champion? And in no way do
we promise that we're not going to replay this if

(46:47):
you're completely wrong on the show a couple of weeks
from now. Just to show how little you know about
Major League Baseball.

Speaker 2 (46:53):
Well, I'm going to I'm going to rewind three days
because my dad, Michael Levine, my son Quinn Levine, and
I have a text stream and we've been picking every
single one of these games as it's gone, as it's gone.
So I'm going to tell you what I did at
that point, and not benefit from the three games that
have been played. So when we did this, I was
picking with my heart. In my head a little bit differently.

(47:14):
So you know, as we all can attest, we all
have a lot of friends in the game. I really
wanted to see Seattle make it to the World Series.
That are the only franchise in Major League Baseball to
not actually show up in the World Series. They've never
been to the World Series, never won a World Series.
I think it would just be wonderful for that franchise,
for that fan base, for that community, to get a
chance to at least play in the World Series. So

(47:34):
with my heart, I was picking the Seattle Mariners. My head, though,
I was really on the side of the Toronto Blue Jays,
mostly because Seattle had just played this amazing, knockdown, dragout
game in their winner, take all Game five against the
Detroit Tigers, in which they played fifteen innings, they pitched
almost their entire starting rotation. Then they had to hop
on a plane for twenty three hundred miles to get

(47:56):
to Toronto and play it about twenty four hours later.
So I thought they were going to be kind of
playing on fumes compromise. From a starting pitching standpoint, Toronto
was totally arrested. They had their number one and two
starters and Seattle was going to have to like piece
it together, you know, duct tape and a little bubble
gum to get through those first two games. Well, they
end up winning the first two games. Now they come

(48:17):
home and really in the driver's seat. A lot of
unfinished business. But the numbers are prohibitive. When you win
the first two games on the road, you are a
prohibitive favorite to win. So my heart was with Seattle.
My head was with Toronto. Looks like my heart maybe
winning that right now. And then it's so hard to
pick against the Los Angeles Dodgers. The depth of that
franchise is so exceptional. I think it's a better team

(48:38):
than they had last year when they won the World Series.
They're starting rotation right now, which is healthy. Is frightening,
you know the Snell bi Like Snell pitched an eight
inning gem last night. You got Sho hey o Tani.
You've got a healthy Tyler Glass. Now you've got Yamamoto.
And then what is probably another top three starter for
most other franchises, Roki Sasaki is closing out these games.

(49:00):
That is an extremely formidable rotation to go with, you know,
three or four Hall of famers who just are sitting
in the middle of their batting order. I think it's
gonna be very tough. I'd love to see Milwaukee prevail,
just because they're kind of more of that team first
rather than star led team. But I think it's going
to be the Dodgers. I'm gonna stick with my heart
now that I have the benefit of the two games

(49:21):
in say Seattle. But if I'm being honest, I'd pick
Toronto and and the Los Angeles Dodgers to meet up
in the World Series.

Speaker 1 (49:29):
I would have picked the same fat, the Toronto and
the Dodgers. In fact, despite the odds, I'm still going
with Toronto down O two. I probably went a lot
of money in Vegas if I actually bet on such things.
If the Blue Jays come back and win the series,
which now they'll almost certainly get swept, and I'll look
like a fool making that prediction. But to me fat
as a layperson and you know, a fan of all sports,

(49:50):
the Dodgers, you know, they look a little bit different.
I think sometimes when you watch these teams, these star
studded teams. You know what Blake Snell did in Game
one the other night, and just you know, look up
and down the lineup. They have stars, and they have
guys who you know, Otani, Bets and whoever. And I
can trast that with Milwaukee. And that's why the fan

(50:10):
of all sports part of me would love to see
Milwaukee win it for the reasons you mentioned earlier. Seemingly
a great franchise top to bottom, who builds things the
right way with depth, and they draft well and developed
well and manage well and a lot their money very
well given how successful they are best record major League Baseball.
But tom, as you know, sometimes when you get down

(50:31):
to it, in the final four in particular, it's who
has the best guys, And Dodgers have won two titles
since COVID I think twenty twenty and then again last
year in twenty twenty four. And to me, as a
fan of baseball, say, oh, yeah, that team looks a
little bit different. Those guys look a little bit different. Yes,
they have the biggest payroll in the league and have
some huge advantages, but I don't know if that you know,

(50:52):
we ask you for the World Series, pick Toronto and La.
I'm going to go Toronto in La, but I'm going
to go with La over whoever to win World Series,
just because to me, I think, you know, the way
Snell is pitching in with their their team, they look
they look pretty loaded. Tom, how closely you follow MLB,
but if you have an opinion on any of those
four squads.

Speaker 3 (51:11):
Well, I'm a baseball fan by no means and experts,
so I handicapp it a little bit differently. So I
live in southern California. I got to know Dave Roberts
when he's with the Padres. He's a friend of mine,
huge football fan, big Charger fan. So you know, you guys, know,
you know, when you work at professional sports, usually root
for people that you know more so than teams, just

(51:34):
because as you start to because we all know what
we what we all go through. So I'm Dodgers. And
then since I grew up in Buffalo and used to
go to Exhibition Stadium to see the Blue Jays play
every now and then when Tony Fernandez was a short stop,
I used to love Tony Fernandez and I was a
short stop growing up, So I go Blue Jays Dodgers.
That's kind of how I handicap it as a real

(51:55):
lay person when it comes to baseball.

Speaker 2 (51:57):
Well, one thing I just want to add to this
that maybe the average fan doesn't realize is just how
electric the fan bases are in Seattle in Toronto, Like,
I think it would be wonderful to see those types
of teams on the big stage and just have fans
understand like these are rabid fan bases, so overdue for
the opportunity. You know that Toronto Blue Jays won the
World Series twice in the early nineteen nineties, haven't been

(52:18):
back since. Seattle's never been one of those two teams
will be represented in the World Series. It's going to
be wonderful to see those fan bases on full display
in the World Series. Right, I want to shift your
attention to the preseason. The NBA is winding down, the
season's about to start. We learned last week how gifted
you and your younger sister were in helping your father

(52:41):
pick games. Are what's striking you as some of the
over unders on the win totals heading into the NBA season.
Anything jumping out to.

Speaker 1 (52:48):
You, Yeah, So Tom Thad and I talk about this
all the time when people ask us, even when we're
a general manager of teams, what do you think is
going to happen tonight? If I was honest, I say,
I have no idea. I imagine it was the same
way in the NFL, where when I was with the
Boston Celtics or Phoenix Suns, we'd have a morning practice,
we'd be crisp and then get blown out that night,

(53:10):
or the opposite happened. I was sloppy, it was unfocused.
I think we're going to get drilled and then we
come out and blow out the opponent. So I bring
that up because whenever my buddies asked me, I imagine
you guys get asked as well in your respective sports. Hey,
what do you think is going to happen in this
game tonight? Especially my degenerate friends who gamble on just
about everything. I said, Look, don't ask me. I have
no idea what's going to happen in this game tonight. However,

(53:30):
I would say that over time, I think I have
a decent feel for what's going to happen. So let
me give you guys three overs in the NBA that
stood out that as far as the season win totals.
They call it over and under. How many games these
teams are going to win out of the eighty over
the eighty two game regular season, so the three overs.

Speaker 2 (53:49):
I like that.

Speaker 1 (53:50):
The Golden State Warriors at forty five and a half.
They traded for Jimmy Butler mid season last year from
the Miami Heat. From that point on, they were twenty
three and seven with Jimmy in the lineup. They still
have Steph Curry and Draymond Green and Steve Kerr, all
of whom are going to the Hall of Fame. That
twenty three and seven record came along with the third
best net rating in the league. So I think forty

(54:13):
five and a half is too low in Golden State.
Another team kind of this hovered around five hundred the
last few years, the Chicago Bulls. They're over under is
thirty two and a half, and I don't think people
were paying as close to attention as they should at
Chicago was one of my favorite teams to watch last year.
They traded some veterans in de mar de Rozan and
Zach Lavine. They brought in Josh Giddy last offseason at

(54:36):
point guard. He really thrived in a Bulls uniform, so
Chicago for me, guys, thirty two and a half, that's
too low. This team has won between thirty nine and
forty games the last couple of years, and they finished
last year with a young team on an upswing seventeen
and ten after they traded Zach Lavine. So I like
to over from the Bulls and the final one New
Orleans and over the thirty and a half. We know

(54:59):
the issues that Zion Williamson has had in New Orleans
staying in shape, staying healthy. But this is a talented team.
We'll see what happens with the John t Moury, how
he looks when he comes back, but Herb Jones, Trey
Murphy on the wing. This is one where I think
people look at the record and do a lot of
it based on last year's record. Well, I think they
were the most injured team as far as your stars
and your rotational players. They lost the most talented minutes

(55:23):
to injury. In terms of the guys who actually play
for you in your rotation, I think they were leading
the league by a mile. So if you bank on
regression to the mean, those guys come back, they stay healthy,
they play Zion is motivated, which hopefully he is with
the new front office in place who did not draft him.
I like New Orleans stat as my third thirty and
a half is too low. I think they easily exceed
that win to.

Speaker 3 (55:44):
We need a draftking sponsorship or fan duel or something.
That's some good info right there.

Speaker 1 (55:49):
I appreciate it.

Speaker 3 (55:50):
Him.

Speaker 2 (55:50):
Do you run all this by your sisters what we
were really dying to know? Yeah?

Speaker 1 (55:55):
I did.

Speaker 2 (55:55):
I did.

Speaker 1 (55:56):
I think, you know, she loves the restaurants in San Francisco,
Chicago and New Orleans, you know, I think how she
tends to pick him great cuisine in those three cities.
And yeah, Tom, I completely agree with what you said.
As far as a sponsorship, we could use a betting sponsor.
We would make every segment, you know, some kind of
sports betting involved here. So just to finish the thought,
I'll give you guys the two unders. And I hate

(56:17):
to and this is the tough part for the three
of us, right saying these teams aren't going to be
as good. But frankly, I think the two teams I pick,
they know they're not going to be very good. I'm
not telling anything they don't know. The first is the
Washington Wizards at twenty one and a half. I know
that's a low total, but basically, guys, what I'm fairly
certain they're going to do is play one of the

(56:37):
youngest rotations in NBA history. They're gonna play a bunch
of teenagers against men. They've already bought out one of
their veterans in Marcus Smart this offseason, who's now a
member of the LA Lakers, other veterans like CG. McCollum
and Chris Middleton. I think if those guys play well,
then Washington will trade them to get more draft picks
and young players, or if there's no trade, they'll just

(56:58):
buy them out and then play even more young guy.
One other factor leading me to lean toward the under
for the teams with low projected totals anyways, is the
twenty twenty six NBA Draft that's coming up in June
is absolutely loaded. We'll talk about that on rosters Rinks
here later this season, but looking at it based on
the body of work from these guys playing high school

(57:18):
aau USA basketball, you get familiar with names like Darren Peterson,
Cam Boozer, who's Carlos Boozer's son, AJ demants at BYU
and others Nate Aman to Tennessee mckel brown. Here at
Louisville is not just a one player draft either. There
are five or six guys at the top of this
draft to in the preseason look like studs. So I

(57:40):
think Washington at twenty one and a half and then
Brooklyn the Nets at twenty and a half, who became
the first team ever to draft five first round picks,
and all my hand up here admitting I was wrong
as far as you know draft previews on here, in
serious XM and some of the different media stuff I do.
I said there's no way they actually draft five guys
in the first round because nobody's ever done that. Well,

(58:01):
they did it, and they're going to play those guys.
So keep in mind, if you draft five rookies, that's
a third of your roster. That combined with loaded draft,
combined with the fact that they traded away Cam Johnson
it was the best player last year. And like Washington,
I think they look to trade other vets to free
up minutes for young guys and bring in more draft
picks and young players. So I like those two under

(58:22):
I know the totals are low Washington and Brooklyn, But
I think it's going to be a struggle, guys, for
those two teams to win any significant amount of games.

Speaker 2 (58:29):
Well, Ryan, I think you shed light on a few
things that are worth conversation, and maybe it's for future episodes,
but the Washington Wizards is certainly a franchise that has
struggled for a prolonged period of time. A dissection of
them maybe something on the horizon for us. But then also,
how do you govern your franchise when there is a
loaded draft coming up? I think does influence us a

(58:49):
little bit. You know, Washington and or Brooklyn may be
willing to take a little bit more of a shot
of saying they're purely going to develop this year and
maybe wins, be damned to see. And because one of
the benefits of that is you're giving all these young
players real minutes and opportunities to develop and cultivate their skills.
But then also the downside, such as it is, is

(59:10):
you lose, but you also then enhance your chances of
winning the draft lottery and being able to access them
that talent at the top of the draft. I think
that's a worthwhile conversation down the road. How much has
that factored into our decisions in the past. How does
that play in each of our sports individually?

Speaker 3 (59:24):
No, absolutely, man, I'd have a hard time with that.
It's just two It's just like baseball and basketball and
football is just completely differently with football since only I
have seventeen games, but I can't imagine the philosophy of
playing young players and maybe giving up some wins and
hopefully we get a top five NFL draft pick. It's
just totally foreign to the NFL with how that works.

Speaker 2 (59:47):
So some of the better franchises in baseball have certainly
been built on the backbone of that. Know, it's tougher
to do now with the draft lottery, but they were
doing that for quite a few cycles and we're very
successful doing it well.

Speaker 1 (59:59):
NBA is well, I mean, you look at Lebron, James
Dwight Howard, Anthony Davis. We'll see what Victor woman Yama
develops into. But Tom, now let me ask you a
question though, if that were an option hypothetically in the NFL,
And keep in mind in the NFL has more players
than any sport. With the size of the roster and
injuries and all that, it's more obviously historically based on

(01:00:21):
you know, depth, rather than the maybe high end talent.
We've seen teams with the high end talent not have
a great rosters, not win. But was there ever a
guy in your scouting career where you looked at him?
You know, I'm going back to even you know, I'm
not trying to put names in your mouth, but Peyton
Manning or somebody where you say, boy, objectively, if we
could lose and get that guy, and then sure enough,
whichever team got that guy as the number was the

(01:00:41):
number one pick, and then the team ascended. Like I know,
that doesn't happen a lot in the NFL, and most
teams don't do that, but do any stand out is
a little bit different. He said, geez, I thought this
guy was going to be great. He was a number
one pick, and turns out he was great and that
team built around him and had a long run for five, ten,
fifteen years on the back of that number one pick.

Speaker 3 (01:01:00):
Yeah, it's just so hard to do to predict, you know,
not that you're losing games on purpose, but to predict.
Can we do we have a chance to even get
the first round pick and then well that in a
lot of times that player he may be underclass and
will he even declare for the draft. I mean, there's

(01:01:21):
just there's there's so many different variables that go into
that situation where in the NFL, which why you really
don't see teams tank in the NFL for a draft pick.
Number one being you're never one player away, even though
obviously the quarterbacks is completely different. But you just don't
see teams tank now in baseball and basketball. I can
see the reasons behind it and the process to go

(01:01:43):
through to get there, and that's probably your best way
to for future performance is to go that route rather
than be middle of the road every year and and
and not being able to get in that lottery to
potentially get a player. It just seems like in basketball,
like you know, you got five starters, you got twelve
on the team. You know, getting a lottery pick is
a big deal. And football is a little bit different

(01:02:06):
unless it's a quarterback obviously, but there's just so many facts.
And then then the other thing is if you're the
gam and the head coach and you want to try
and enhance your possibilities to get a high draft pick,
you may not be there to make that pick because
you know, you lose too many games and somebody else
will be making that pick. So never really been. You know,

(01:02:27):
when I was with the with the Colts my second
to last year there, when we were three and thirteen,
and that was the Andrew Luck year that he was
going to be in the draft. Actually was Andrew Luck
and Robert Griffin and believe in I mean they were
they were one and two, two and one for most
of the year in that draft, But I was Andrew
Luck was probably one of the best quarterbacks I've ever

(01:02:50):
seen in college. That was probably one of the few
instances that I felt like as we got towards the
end of the year that you know, in order to
get him, we're going to have to have the worst
record in the league. So losing hurt be last you
knew you had something on the back end that you
have a chance to get Andrew Luck.

Speaker 2 (01:03:06):
Now.

Speaker 3 (01:03:07):
Unfortunately, in order to get Andrew Luck, a lot of
people lost their jobs. I mean almost everybody in the
front office I work with at the Colts lost their job.
I got Lucky to get through with the new regime
and I was there for one more year after, but
I just always had an issue as a GM. If
the team looks like that you're really rebuilding and you're

(01:03:28):
playing younger players and purposely not trying to win every game.
I wouldn't be able to show myself to show my
base in the locker room for the players that were
in there and for the fan base that we're trying
to win no matter what, even though God knows, like, yeah,
higher draft backs are going to help you, it's just
that there's just no guarantees.

Speaker 2 (01:03:45):
I think those Colts fans are totally at peace with
all you guys losing your jobs in the name of
getting in for luck.

Speaker 3 (01:03:51):
You know, there's no doubt.

Speaker 2 (01:03:53):
It does speak to this balancing act we all have,
which is we are trying to act in the betterment
of the franchise, but it's also you try to also
survive year to year on the job. And if the
scale tip's too far to just trying to survive, I
think that's when we should be removed from these roles,
like we should always be putting the franchise of success

(01:04:13):
over our popularity. It's tough to do in the real
time in the moment because we're trying to provide for
a family as well. So tom before we let you go,
let's move away from the notion of tanking. Let's move
back towards the playoff push. Are there any teams in
the NFL right now that you see who have losing
records that you still think have a legitimate path forward

(01:04:34):
to getting into the playoffs? So, you know, looking at
at teams like the Giants and the Texans and the
Cowboys who are making a little bit of a push
after slow starts, anybody jump out to you as having
a legitimate chance at the playoffs? Who's currently sitting with
a losing record?

Speaker 3 (01:04:50):
I still think Baltimore. You know, we talk about organizational
stability with John Harbaugh and then with Isie Newsman and
Eric Tacassa. Those three have worked them for so long.
They've had these situations before. They've weathered storms. I know
how to readjust their troops. Lamar Jackson will be back,
if not this week, the following week. They have a

(01:05:11):
lot of injuries right now, but they're going to be
getting some players back. And their roster was to me
the best in the league going into the season. It
just didn't turn bad overnight. They just had a lot
of injuries of recent the last couple of weeks. But
to me, in their division, I just don't think Pittsburgh's
gon to run away with it. And even though the
Ravens are one in five, I still think they can
make a pretty good run here coming up. And then

(01:05:35):
you know, watching Dallas, their offense is really impressive. Dak
Prescott when he's healthy, he is one of the best
quarterbacks in the NFL, and he's playing at high level
right now with all the injuries on the offensive line,
with no CD Lamb, and they're still put putting up points.
They just got to figure out a way on defense
just to get a couple stops that that's all that

(01:05:55):
they need. But I think they still have a chance
to compete as a wildcard. And that's why in this league,
like franchise quarterbacks are so important. You pay them so
much money, and you pay them such a big part
of the salary cap because you expect them to raise
the play of everybody around them. And for instances like this,
and the same thing you see with Baker Mayfield and Tampa,

(01:06:16):
like these are rosters with a lot of injuries right now,
and the quarterback is just pulling everybody forward, not only
by talent, but by leadership. So that's what Dak Prescott
is doing right now in Dallas. I still think they
can get into this, maybe get a wild cart. I
think Baltimore is certainly still in it, even though you
look at one to five we think there's no way.
But they're going to get some guys back. They're extremely
talented and they just have great stability in the front

(01:06:37):
office that I think they can weather this and get
back in the race.

Speaker 1 (01:06:41):
Yeah, certain organizations let go of the rope and shut
it down when things don't go well.

Speaker 2 (01:06:45):
Others routes and they get hard.

Speaker 1 (01:06:47):
It seemed like one of those that has a chance
to rally.

Speaker 2 (01:06:49):
Well.

Speaker 1 (01:06:49):
No, we'll see what happens on the field, but the Ravens,
certainly what they built, as you mentioned, over decades, wouldn't
I don't think any of the three of us would
be shocked if they dig themselves out of that hole.

Speaker 2 (01:06:59):
That's it for this.

Speaker 1 (01:06:59):
Week, folks, Thanks as always for joining us for Thad Levine,
for Tom to LESCo. I am Ryan McDonald. Join us
right here next week and every week on Rosters to Rings.