A former undersecretary at the US Treasury Department, Mary Miller explains why she expects a deep but short economic downturn, and how individuals and small businesses can take advantage of the array of help that is out there.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:17):
Hi. This is Milan Vervier and this is Kim Azarelli.
We are co authors of the book Fast Forward, How
Women Can Achieve Power and Purpose. And you're listening to
Seneca Women Conversations on Power and Purpose, brought to you
by the Seneca Women Podcast Network and I Heart Radio.
Welcome to this special edition. During these difficult times, we're
(00:37):
talking to experts who can help us gain perspective on
the coronavirus, as well as your tips, resources and some
much needed inspiration. Today I'm joined by Mary Miller. Mary
was the first woman to serve as the Under Secretary
for Domestic Finance at the U. S. Treasury Department. Mary
also helped lead our economies recovery from the two thousand
and eight financial crisis. Current lea, she's running for mayor
(01:00):
of Baltimore, her home of thirty four years. Mary, thanks
so much for joining us on all the meteor and
talk to you today. We are at this unbelievable moment
um in recent history. We are experiencing an unprecedented health crisis,
and now it seems that we are going to be
experiencing a pretty significant economic crisis. You have a unique
perspective given your role during the two thousand and eight
(01:22):
financial crisis. How is this moment different or the same
as two thousand eight. This moment is the same as
two thousand and eight in that I think we can
expect a pretty deep recession. Hopefully it will be a
relatively short recession as we had in two thousand eight
oh nine. We don't know yet, but ideally this will
(01:47):
be a short hit to the economy that we can
recover from later this year. It is also the same
in terms of the strong federal government fiscal response, in
terms of the size and scale which the federal government
is coming to the rescued here. It is different in
that the two thousand and eight financial crisis was more
(02:08):
slow moving, with a lot of warning signs coming in
two thousand and seven into the first half of two
thousand and eight, with the real impact being selves in
the third and fourth quarters of two thousand and eight.
This time, we've taken this blow very quickly in a
matter of weeks, and it's reaching the whole economy with
direct impact the individuals. The banks for part of the
(02:33):
problem in two thousand and eight that the banks and
the housing finance system. This time, the banks are being
asked to be part of the solution, with a lot
of the relief aid being driven through the banking system.
So those are the ways that I think this is
the same. But also this is quite different. So it
does seem that, um, this is hitting main street very
quickly for obvious reasons. I think, Um, do you think
(02:56):
the stimulus package as designed will be effective and can
you sort of give us your perspective on it. Yes,
I think the fiscal stimulus package is good in the
breath of what it's trying to address. The direct assistance
to individuals who have lost their jobs and their income,
the assistance to small businesses, the assistance to state and
(03:17):
local governments, and of course the healthcare providers. So I
think that it is good in terms of trying to
reach the parts of the economy that have been most
affected by this. In terms of getting cash into the
hands of individuals, what is the goal and how realistic
is it to get money into the system quickly. So
(03:38):
the fiscal assistance provides a number of things to individuals.
There are direct cash payments of twelve hundred dollars to
an individual, five dollars to children, and that money is
intended to put some direct uh financial assistance into the
hands of people, and at a macro level, it's it's
(03:58):
a lot of money. It's not enough to get people
through a month long crisis, but it's helpful. The questions
turn around the speed with which the dollars will reach people.
If you're connected to the tax filing system and the
banking system, you'll get your money faster than if you
are not, so there are some equity issues in terms
(04:20):
of how quickly these dollars will get into people's talckets.
The unemployment insurance extension and increase are very helpful to
people have lost their jobs. There are more weeks that
you can collect unemployment insurance benefits and the federal government
is putting in additional six hundred dollars a week on
top of the normal payments, so that's quite helpful to individuals.
(04:43):
There are other pieces like the laying tax filing dates
to July that will give people from relief. There's also
a systance in asking um the banking system to differ
mortgage loan payments. There are still you know, equity issues
and terms of it being challenging for those who work
(05:03):
off the grid how they're going to you know, connect
with these financial resources. It's also the case that they're
available to people who make in the name you know,
less than certain thresholds, So hiring some people who may
have lost their jobs as well may not be able
to receive these benifits. And let's talk about small businesses,
(05:23):
because we know that small business is the backbone of
this economy and asking everyone to stay home has resulted
in I think a pretty unprecedented slow down in small business.
What does the stimulus package do for small businesses? You
are correct in that over half of employees in the
United States work for small businesses, so this is a
key area for the fiscal stimulus to reach. The flagship
(05:46):
products is called the pay Text Protection Program, which is
a new lending facility set up through your bank for
loans of up to ten million dollars for businesses fewer
than five hundred employees. The loans themselves will be guaranteed
by the Small Business Administration and importantly provide loan forgiveness
(06:10):
if the employer the borrower keeps their employees on the
payroll for at least eight weeks. And it's also using
the funds to take some pretty important business expenses like mortgages, utilities,
et cetera. So this is a really important and new
learning program. The rollout of it has been rocks put
(06:31):
up very quickly. The Small Business Administration, which backs the
BROWN last year, I think, guaranteed about two billion dollars
of loans and now they're looking at a program that
is three hundred and fifty billion dollars inside. So as
you can expect, there's been some uh startup issues in
terms of putting something of this scale through the system.
(06:52):
It's also true that many of the banks have restricted
the borrowers to existing lending relationships, which is cutting off
this support for other businesses that may not have borrowed
from that bank before. So I think we're still in
the early stages of rowing this out. I think it
can be helpful, but it's still in the works. The
(07:13):
other programs that have been rolled out includings like emergency
and injury disaster loans that don't have all the relief
in the paycheck Protection program, but should be things that
small businesses should look at. There is a ten thousand
dollar um immediate relief packages part of the Emergency Injury
(07:34):
Disaster loans, so that might be something that they should
look at as well. And I wouldn't forget, you know,
the regular lending UH potential that's out there through your
banks and other programs that existed before COVID nineteen. So
small businesses are really at risk here, and I think
you need to move very quickly to try to find
(07:54):
the financial assistance to get through this period. Will be
back after this break. So we know that women are
often um disproportionately affected in a crisis. Do you think
(08:15):
that is going to be the case this time. I
think women will be disproportionately affected on the economic side
of this crisis, not so much on the COVID nineteen incidents,
but we know that women earn lower wages, are more
represented in the service economy, which has been hit very
(08:36):
hard by this crisis, and they're often care gifts either
in their work or at home. I talked to teachers
today who are trying to teach from home online at
the same time that they're trying to care for their
children who are at home from school. Many women are
also caring for elderly parents who are particularly at risk
(08:56):
for the COVID nineteen virus. So this is very You
have a lot to worry about in your own family,
friends and network, about the healthcare incidents, but you also
are worried about all the economic impacts. I'd also mentioned
that the self employed, the so called gig workers, UM,
(09:16):
may still fall through the craft here. It's good that
the unemployment insurance benefits have been extended to many people
that are self employed or self proprietors, but I do
worry that there are people who are only marginally attached
to the economy that are not going to be able
to access these benefits. We've been thinking about that a
lot also, and particularly thinking about women entrepreneurs UM as
(09:38):
you talked about that sort of double burden that women
have always faced. UM. We know that women entrepreneurs have
had difficulty getting access to capital in the past and
and um not always, but are often in those service
businesses that are being shut down. Uh and no fault,
you know, no fault to their own. So what do
you recommend for women entrepreneurs? Well, I think this is
(09:58):
going to be a toss curry because a lot of
the assistance that's being provided are two existing businesses that
are revenue producing with employees, and a lot of startups.
Maybe it's sole proprietors very small may not have existing
banking relationships or borrowing relationships that will get them in
the door to get some of this assistance, So the
(10:21):
programs are not particularly well developed for startups and entrepreneurs.
I have seen that the venture capital industry itself is
creating some small grant assistance to start ups. So I
certainly look at all those channels to see what might
be out there to help you. But I think coming
out of this often when we come out of a recession,
(10:43):
we see a birth of entrepreneurial activity because people don't
immediately find jobs in the developed economy, and they'll strike
out on their own to start businesses and be creative.
So we may see some of that as we come
out the other side of this economic CRISI just so
you are now running from Mayor, so you you've kind
(11:04):
of had a very national perspective in your role at
the Treasury, and now I think you probably have a
very local perspective. What are you seeing on main Street?
And from a local perspective, I guess what I'm seeing
locally is that we are trying to rate against time. Here.
The direct hit of this crisis to the local economy
(11:26):
is very hard, and the assistance that's been developed well
important and big, and you know, coming, may not get
to people or businesses quick enough. So I'm very worried
about not having a stronger local response to bridge this period.
We're seeing cities and counties across the country use their
(11:46):
own funds to create direct financial assistance to help individuals
and businesses, with the expectation that they will be able
to draw down federal aid later. I think that's a
really important thing for every city to consider because the
pain is very real and very now, very local. So
(12:07):
I've been pushing locally to see if we can't put
more dollars out there in an immediate way, because we
know the needs very well at a local level, and
I think that's what cities across the country are struggling with.
If I learned anything in my time in the Obama administration,
it's that your ideas have to be bold, you have
(12:28):
to be very decisive, and you have to move quickly,
and you have to make the assistance pretty direct and
easy to navigate. Complex programs does work against you in
terms of making it difficult for people to navigate. So
what I'm hoping to see locally here in Baltimore is
a stronger local response to try to help bridge. As
(12:50):
I say, this very difficult period for our citizens. Well,
obviously the news right now is very somber, and experts
are predicting some unprecedented it's in our economy. But in
this moment, is there anything that makes you optimistic or hopeful? Well,
I think people have to begin by saying, this crisis
is not my fault and I should ask for help,
(13:12):
and there's a lot being offered here. I think individuals
and particularly women, should pay a lot of attention to
some of the forbearances out there. On your student loans,
for example, you can defer payment, you can ask your
bank for help, you can file for unemployment insurance benefits
if you're eligible, you can differ you know, filowing your
(13:32):
tax returns this year. So I think you need to
keep your with about you and recognize that there is
a lot of assistance being offered and you should take
advantage of that. I think that we need to be
prepared for pretty shocking numbers in May in terms of
unemployment GDP collapsing um and you know, high unemployment rates.
(13:56):
We have never hit the breaks quite like this before,
so we're gonna have to stay focused and stay UM
attentive to what our own these are. At the same time,
I think we can be reasonably optimistic that this will
not be a very long recessions And I think we're
(14:19):
all learning from this pandemic. We should be UM taking
a lot from what we're doing every day in terms
of operating virtually. This will change the way we can
work UM as a country. And I think we should
notice all the extraordinary generosity that we're seeing from people
and institutions across the country. They are responding in just
(14:41):
unprecedented way. And the last thing I would say, and
I think this is particularly important to women, is to
really appreciate the importance of your relationships with your friends,
with your family, with your network, because it's coming through
in such valuable ways right now. We won't forget this
time and the way we were on to each other. Mary,
(15:01):
thank you so much for joining us, and we look
forward to following what you're doing. Thank you for all
that you're doing UM in this field, and I'm very
grateful to have the chance to talk to you today.
You're listening to Seneca Women Conversations on power and Purpose
brought to you by the Seneca Women podcast Network and
(15:22):
I Heart Radio with support from founding partner PNG. Listen
to Seneca Women Conversations on power and purpose on the
I Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get
your podcasts, and please support this podcast by telling your friends, subscribing,
and rating us. For more information on Seneca Women, follow
us on social media, visit our website Seneca Women dot com,
(15:46):
and check out the Seneca Women app free in the
app Store. Have a great day and
Hi. This is Milan Vervier and this is Kim Azarelli.
We are co authors of the book Fast Forward, How
Women Can Achieve Power and Purpose. And you're listening to
Seneca Women Conversations on Power and Purpose, brought to you
by the Seneca Women Podcast Network and I Heart Radio.
Welcome to this special edition. During these difficult times, we're
(00:37):
talking to experts who can help us gain perspective on
the coronavirus, as well as your tips, resources and some
much needed inspiration. Today I'm joined by Mary Miller. Mary
was the first woman to serve as the Under Secretary
for Domestic Finance at the U. S. Treasury Department. Mary
also helped lead our economies recovery from the two thousand
and eight financial crisis. Current lea, she's running for mayor
(01:00):
of Baltimore, her home of thirty four years. Mary, thanks
so much for joining us on all the meteor and
talk to you today. We are at this unbelievable moment
um in recent history. We are experiencing an unprecedented health crisis,
and now it seems that we are going to be
experiencing a pretty significant economic crisis. You have a unique
perspective given your role during the two thousand and eight
(01:22):
financial crisis. How is this moment different or the same
as two thousand eight. This moment is the same as
two thousand and eight in that I think we can
expect a pretty deep recession. Hopefully it will be a
relatively short recession as we had in two thousand eight
oh nine. We don't know yet, but ideally this will
(01:47):
be a short hit to the economy that we can
recover from later this year. It is also the same
in terms of the strong federal government fiscal response, in
terms of the size and scale which the federal government
is coming to the rescued here. It is different in
that the two thousand and eight financial crisis was more
(02:08):
slow moving, with a lot of warning signs coming in
two thousand and seven into the first half of two
thousand and eight, with the real impact being selves in
the third and fourth quarters of two thousand and eight.
This time, we've taken this blow very quickly in a
matter of weeks, and it's reaching the whole economy with
direct impact the individuals. The banks for part of the
(02:33):
problem in two thousand and eight that the banks and
the housing finance system. This time, the banks are being
asked to be part of the solution, with a lot
of the relief aid being driven through the banking system.
So those are the ways that I think this is
the same. But also this is quite different. So it
does seem that, um, this is hitting main street very
quickly for obvious reasons. I think, Um, do you think
(02:56):
the stimulus package as designed will be effective and can
you sort of give us your perspective on it. Yes,
I think the fiscal stimulus package is good in the
breath of what it's trying to address. The direct assistance
to individuals who have lost their jobs and their income,
the assistance to small businesses, the assistance to state and
(03:17):
local governments, and of course the healthcare providers. So I
think that it is good in terms of trying to
reach the parts of the economy that have been most
affected by this. In terms of getting cash into the
hands of individuals, what is the goal and how realistic
is it to get money into the system quickly. So
(03:38):
the fiscal assistance provides a number of things to individuals.
There are direct cash payments of twelve hundred dollars to
an individual, five dollars to children, and that money is
intended to put some direct uh financial assistance into the
hands of people, and at a macro level, it's it's
(03:58):
a lot of money. It's not enough to get people
through a month long crisis, but it's helpful. The questions
turn around the speed with which the dollars will reach people.
If you're connected to the tax filing system and the
banking system, you'll get your money faster than if you
are not, so there are some equity issues in terms
(04:20):
of how quickly these dollars will get into people's talckets.
The unemployment insurance extension and increase are very helpful to
people have lost their jobs. There are more weeks that
you can collect unemployment insurance benefits and the federal government
is putting in additional six hundred dollars a week on
top of the normal payments, so that's quite helpful to individuals.
(04:43):
There are other pieces like the laying tax filing dates
to July that will give people from relief. There's also
a systance in asking um the banking system to differ
mortgage loan payments. There are still you know, equity issues
and terms of it being challenging for those who work
(05:03):
off the grid how they're going to you know, connect
with these financial resources. It's also the case that they're
available to people who make in the name you know,
less than certain thresholds, So hiring some people who may
have lost their jobs as well may not be able
to receive these benifits. And let's talk about small businesses,
(05:23):
because we know that small business is the backbone of
this economy and asking everyone to stay home has resulted
in I think a pretty unprecedented slow down in small business.
What does the stimulus package do for small businesses? You
are correct in that over half of employees in the
United States work for small businesses, so this is a
key area for the fiscal stimulus to reach. The flagship
(05:46):
products is called the pay Text Protection Program, which is
a new lending facility set up through your bank for
loans of up to ten million dollars for businesses fewer
than five hundred employees. The loans themselves will be guaranteed
by the Small Business Administration and importantly provide loan forgiveness
(06:10):
if the employer the borrower keeps their employees on the
payroll for at least eight weeks. And it's also using
the funds to take some pretty important business expenses like mortgages, utilities,
et cetera. So this is a really important and new
learning program. The rollout of it has been rocks put
(06:31):
up very quickly. The Small Business Administration, which backs the
BROWN last year, I think, guaranteed about two billion dollars
of loans and now they're looking at a program that
is three hundred and fifty billion dollars inside. So as
you can expect, there's been some uh startup issues in
terms of putting something of this scale through the system.
(06:52):
It's also true that many of the banks have restricted
the borrowers to existing lending relationships, which is cutting off
this support for other businesses that may not have borrowed
from that bank before. So I think we're still in
the early stages of rowing this out. I think it
can be helpful, but it's still in the works. The
(07:13):
other programs that have been rolled out includings like emergency
and injury disaster loans that don't have all the relief
in the paycheck Protection program, but should be things that
small businesses should look at. There is a ten thousand
dollar um immediate relief packages part of the Emergency Injury
(07:34):
Disaster loans, so that might be something that they should
look at as well. And I wouldn't forget, you know,
the regular lending UH potential that's out there through your
banks and other programs that existed before COVID nineteen. So
small businesses are really at risk here, and I think
you need to move very quickly to try to find
(07:54):
the financial assistance to get through this period. Will be
back after this break. So we know that women are
often um disproportionately affected in a crisis. Do you think
(08:15):
that is going to be the case this time. I
think women will be disproportionately affected on the economic side
of this crisis, not so much on the COVID nineteen incidents,
but we know that women earn lower wages, are more
represented in the service economy, which has been hit very
(08:36):
hard by this crisis, and they're often care gifts either
in their work or at home. I talked to teachers
today who are trying to teach from home online at
the same time that they're trying to care for their
children who are at home from school. Many women are
also caring for elderly parents who are particularly at risk
(08:56):
for the COVID nineteen virus. So this is very You
have a lot to worry about in your own family,
friends and network, about the healthcare incidents, but you also
are worried about all the economic impacts. I'd also mentioned
that the self employed, the so called gig workers, UM,
(09:16):
may still fall through the craft here. It's good that
the unemployment insurance benefits have been extended to many people
that are self employed or self proprietors, but I do
worry that there are people who are only marginally attached
to the economy that are not going to be able
to access these benefits. We've been thinking about that a
lot also, and particularly thinking about women entrepreneurs UM as
(09:38):
you talked about that sort of double burden that women
have always faced. UM. We know that women entrepreneurs have
had difficulty getting access to capital in the past and
and um not always, but are often in those service
businesses that are being shut down. Uh and no fault,
you know, no fault to their own. So what do
you recommend for women entrepreneurs? Well, I think this is
(09:58):
going to be a toss curry because a lot of
the assistance that's being provided are two existing businesses that
are revenue producing with employees, and a lot of startups.
Maybe it's sole proprietors very small may not have existing
banking relationships or borrowing relationships that will get them in
the door to get some of this assistance, So the
(10:21):
programs are not particularly well developed for startups and entrepreneurs.
I have seen that the venture capital industry itself is
creating some small grant assistance to start ups. So I
certainly look at all those channels to see what might
be out there to help you. But I think coming
out of this often when we come out of a recession,
(10:43):
we see a birth of entrepreneurial activity because people don't
immediately find jobs in the developed economy, and they'll strike
out on their own to start businesses and be creative.
So we may see some of that as we come
out the other side of this economic CRISI just so
you are now running from Mayor, so you you've kind
(11:04):
of had a very national perspective in your role at
the Treasury, and now I think you probably have a
very local perspective. What are you seeing on main Street?
And from a local perspective, I guess what I'm seeing
locally is that we are trying to rate against time. Here.
The direct hit of this crisis to the local economy
(11:26):
is very hard, and the assistance that's been developed well
important and big, and you know, coming, may not get
to people or businesses quick enough. So I'm very worried
about not having a stronger local response to bridge this period.
We're seeing cities and counties across the country use their
(11:46):
own funds to create direct financial assistance to help individuals
and businesses, with the expectation that they will be able
to draw down federal aid later. I think that's a
really important thing for every city to consider because the
pain is very real and very now, very local. So
(12:07):
I've been pushing locally to see if we can't put
more dollars out there in an immediate way, because we
know the needs very well at a local level, and
I think that's what cities across the country are struggling with.
If I learned anything in my time in the Obama administration,
it's that your ideas have to be bold, you have
(12:28):
to be very decisive, and you have to move quickly,
and you have to make the assistance pretty direct and
easy to navigate. Complex programs does work against you in
terms of making it difficult for people to navigate. So
what I'm hoping to see locally here in Baltimore is
a stronger local response to try to help bridge. As
(12:50):
I say, this very difficult period for our citizens. Well,
obviously the news right now is very somber, and experts
are predicting some unprecedented it's in our economy. But in
this moment, is there anything that makes you optimistic or hopeful? Well,
I think people have to begin by saying, this crisis
is not my fault and I should ask for help,
(13:12):
and there's a lot being offered here. I think individuals
and particularly women, should pay a lot of attention to
some of the forbearances out there. On your student loans,
for example, you can defer payment, you can ask your
bank for help, you can file for unemployment insurance benefits
if you're eligible, you can differ you know, filowing your
(13:32):
tax returns this year. So I think you need to
keep your with about you and recognize that there is
a lot of assistance being offered and you should take
advantage of that. I think that we need to be
prepared for pretty shocking numbers in May in terms of
unemployment GDP collapsing um and you know, high unemployment rates.
(13:56):
We have never hit the breaks quite like this before,
so we're gonna have to stay focused and stay UM
attentive to what our own these are. At the same time,
I think we can be reasonably optimistic that this will
not be a very long recessions And I think we're
(14:19):
all learning from this pandemic. We should be UM taking
a lot from what we're doing every day in terms
of operating virtually. This will change the way we can
work UM as a country. And I think we should
notice all the extraordinary generosity that we're seeing from people
and institutions across the country. They are responding in just
(14:41):
unprecedented way. And the last thing I would say, and
I think this is particularly important to women, is to
really appreciate the importance of your relationships with your friends,
with your family, with your network, because it's coming through
in such valuable ways right now. We won't forget this
time and the way we were on to each other. Mary,
(15:01):
thank you so much for joining us, and we look
forward to following what you're doing. Thank you for all
that you're doing UM in this field, and I'm very
grateful to have the chance to talk to you today.
You're listening to Seneca Women Conversations on power and Purpose
brought to you by the Seneca Women podcast Network and
(15:22):
I Heart Radio with support from founding partner PNG. Listen
to Seneca Women Conversations on power and purpose on the
I Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get
your podcasts, and please support this podcast by telling your friends, subscribing,
and rating us. For more information on Seneca Women, follow
us on social media, visit our website Seneca Women dot com,
(15:46):
and check out the Seneca Women app free in the
app Store. Have a great day and
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