On today’s episode, Jason discusses what the addition of Bradley Beal means for the Los Angeles Clippers and the Western Conference Playoff race at-large. Later, FTN Fantasy Chief Analytics Officer Aaron Schatz swings by to discuss why he's expecting the Kansas City Chiefs to regress next season, the likelihood that the Baltimore Ravens or the Buffalo Bills finally break through, whether we can expect the Philadelphia Eagles to win the NFC East yet again, how the Detroit Lions can overcome the loss of both of their coordinators from last season, why Saquon Barkley is not the consensus top overall pick in fantasy football next year, and much more!
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:05):
This is Straight Fire with Jason McIntyre.
Speaker 2 (00:11):
What is up, Drag Fire, Fam, It's me Jason McIntyre,
Straight Foyer for Thursday, July seventeenth. It might surprise you guys,
but I think we are approaching the five year mark.
Speaker 3 (00:24):
It's possible of this podcast five years.
Speaker 2 (00:27):
I just remember we started during COVID, and obviously COVID's
like five years and a couple months old now, and
I've got to look back up in the files to
see when I came on. But man, I can't believe
it's been five years or about five years. But we
have a phenomenal podcast. If this is the five year anniversary,
it's not Aaron Shots, the guy who you was at
(00:49):
Football Outsiders. We're starting our heavy football previews now where
we just talk about the league, we talk about fantasy gambling.
You're gonna love Aaron Shots and stuff. Remember he's the
guy who created DVOA. If you're gambling, you obviously use that.
And he's got a lot of fantasy at a site
FTN Fantasy now, so you're like Aaron shottz our chat.
Speaker 3 (01:07):
Now.
Speaker 2 (01:07):
Two other little pieces of sports news went down yesterday.
Speaker 3 (01:15):
And then the SPI's happened.
Speaker 2 (01:17):
I'm not really familiar with this guy, Shane Gillis, comedian.
Speaker 3 (01:21):
I had to look him up. I knew I knew
the name.
Speaker 2 (01:23):
Obviously, he was the guy who got hired on SNL
and I guess then he got canceled for some old
jokes that were racist. Anyway, Shane Gillis never seen him live.
That guy pretty much crushed the intro. He's not going
to be invited back because it was, you know, pushing
the boundaries and then way way beyond. I thought it
(01:43):
was funny. I think we need more of that, like
this is sports, let's not take ourselves too seriously. So
I greatly enjoyed it. I'm sure you guys have seen
some of the clips online. I would highly suggest looking
into this guy. Shane Gillis monologue. He had some jokes
about Caitlin Clark obviously, some political.
Speaker 3 (02:02):
Jokes or some Belichick stuff.
Speaker 2 (02:04):
I mean, listen, it wasn't quite the Tom Brady roast,
but it was, you know, for something that appeared on TV,
about as as close as you're gonna get in the
sports world. So and then the other two items were
the Commanders landed Von Miller. But that's not a bad get. Interestingly,
this happened well after we spoke to Aaron Shots and
(02:26):
we talked about it.
Speaker 3 (02:27):
They don't have a pass rush.
Speaker 2 (02:28):
So the von Miller thing dovetails beautifully into the interview.
The other is on the NBA side, and that is
Bradley Beal.
Speaker 1 (02:34):
Ugh.
Speaker 2 (02:35):
I was all fired up for him to go to Lakers,
and I gotta be honest, him going to the Clippers,
which we talked about, is kind of devastating for Lakers fans, like,
I don't know what your movie is now, you ain't
getting kaminga. There just aren't a lot of guys out there,
and Bradley Beal would have been perfect. It seems like
he was kind of sort of given a handshake deal,
(02:56):
you'll be the starter. I mean, you know, people are
really down on him.
Speaker 3 (03:04):
And I get that. You know, they didn't even make
the playoffs.
Speaker 4 (03:05):
J What are you talking about?
Speaker 3 (03:06):
He's washed?
Speaker 2 (03:07):
Okay, that's fine, He's not that old. He does have
an injury history. But this is a guy who can
get you buckets and at five million dollars a year,
I can almost guarantee you when you talk pound four
pound best contract. When it comes to like points, assists,
rebounds and stuff. He's going to probably be top three
(03:28):
in the league, if not number one, because he's only
at five million a year. The Clippers bench will be
incredibly deep. Now, I mean, I hate to say it.
You know it's Houston, Denver, OKC, and the Clippers. Those
are on paper clearly the top four. Then you've got
the Lakers. Then you've got the Warriors because they still
(03:49):
have Steph Curry. I think a lot of people love Minnesota.
I'm not as high on them.
Speaker 3 (03:53):
I thought the.
Speaker 2 (03:55):
Well, we'll see, I'm not as high on Minnesota. Dallas
when they get Kyrie back, the Spurs are going to
be really, really good.
Speaker 3 (04:03):
It's gonna be a difficult year in the West. Uh,
Lakers gotta be frustrated.
Speaker 2 (04:09):
Anyways, Without further ado, let's get to our guest, Aaron
Shatz of FTN Fantasy.
Speaker 1 (04:17):
You know a guy, Jason likes to think he knows
everything when it comes to sports.
Speaker 4 (04:22):
I know what sports fans want, but for.
Speaker 1 (04:24):
Everything he doesn't, he knows a guy who does.
Speaker 4 (04:27):
Let's just say I know a guy who knows a
guy who knows another guy.
Speaker 3 (04:32):
All right, let's welcome in to straight fire.
Speaker 2 (04:34):
A guy we talked to multiple times a year about football,
usually off season in season. I mean, listen to this
guy is the Dvoa King. He's the chief analytics officer
for FTN Fantasy Aaron shots erin, how you doing, man.
Speaker 4 (04:48):
I'm good, man, I made it through another book writing season.
I'm ready for the off season to be over and
I'm ready to have some football.
Speaker 3 (04:54):
Yeah, it's July. Is that time?
Speaker 1 (04:56):
Right?
Speaker 3 (04:56):
You get the MLB All Star Game and an NBA.
Speaker 2 (04:59):
Free agency one dot, and then the camps are opening
up here in about a week, and everybody wants to know, Oh,
who's gonna be good this year? Fantasy gambling, Oh, super Bowl?
Everybody gets all excited. So you've put in the work. Okay,
Usually I take like a little break off NFL in
June because there's not much happening. And now you've looked
at all the depth charts, You've analyzed all the moves,
(05:19):
the late Aaron Rodgers move. I don't think that moves
the needle for Pittsburgh. But I'm curious where do you
stand now heading into this season? Big picture around the league?
Are we seeing a changing of the guard? Is the
Chiefs run over?
Speaker 3 (05:31):
Do you expect it to continue. Eagles repeat, where are
you at the top of the league?
Speaker 4 (05:35):
I mean, I will say that teams that can't win
in the playoffs can't win in the playoffs until the
year they finally do. One of these years, somebody is
going to break the chief string and it's probably going
to be either Buffalo or Baltimore. If you look at
our DVOA stat that's the main stat that we use,
(05:56):
which looks at every play and compares it to an
average play for opponent. The best team since nineteen seventy
eight over a five year period to not make the
Super Bowl is the Bills over the last five years.
The second best team to not make a Super Bowl
is the Ravens over the last five years. So the
Chiefs have really kept these two really good teams from
(06:21):
finally making it, and the odds are one of them
will finally make it this year.
Speaker 3 (06:26):
So do you think the Chiefs take a big step back?
Speaker 1 (06:29):
Is it?
Speaker 2 (06:29):
I mean, I think they won eleven to zero, one
score game, some ridiculous number. However, they didn't really have
a wide receiver room. But at the same time, like
Travis Kelcey, started to look his age in the postseason,
I'm on record, I think the Chiefs can miss the playoffs.
Speaker 3 (06:42):
I think the AFC is absolutely better. I'm with you.
Speaker 2 (06:45):
I like the Bills a lot, I like the Ravens,
don't love them, but I see a big step back
for the Chiefs. I know that sounds crazy because they
have Mahomes and Reid, but do you think that they
are better than last year as good? I mean, both
their tackles huge question heading into the season.
Speaker 4 (07:01):
I think they're about as good as last year, but
they're not going to have the luck. They're not going
to have the other quarterback drop the snap at the
end of the game and field goal, you know, all
that weird stuff that happened with them last year. So
they're not going fifteen and two again. But I do
think that the better wide receiver room, you know, assuming
(07:23):
that Rashie ris it doesn't get suspended for the legal
problems that he has, I think that that does help
counter the decline of Travis Kelcey and the questions that
left tackle and Mahomes. You know, papers over a lot
of problems, and the coaching staff is fantastic, and I
do think they're still the favorite in the AFC West.
But I don't think they're the favorite in the AFC
(07:45):
entirely interesting.
Speaker 3 (07:47):
AFC West got better, Raiders got a real coach.
Speaker 2 (07:50):
Chargers had a really good offseason, I thought, And the
Denver Broncos I'm seeing, I don't know. I'm curious what
your numbers say they're supposed to have the best defense
in the league this year.
Speaker 4 (08:00):
Are surprisingly high on Denver and surprisingly low on the Chargers.
We see the Chargers defense really coming back to the pack,
a lot of regression that they really improved last year.
Some of that was the coordinator, Jesse Minter, and so
certainly Minter could be having more of an effect than
our numbers can analyze, and the Chargers defense will be
(08:22):
better than we think it is. You know, I think
the receivers are you know, McConkie's good, but it's the
same questions about all the other receivers that the Chargers
always seem to have. Whereas our numbers love the Broncos.
I think the Broncos defense is our number one projected defense.
You know, there's so many great players on that defense.
(08:43):
Peyton did a great job of managing bow Knicks and
making boon Nicks look good on the offensive side of
the ball. We're very high on the Broncos this year.
Speaker 2 (08:51):
Wow, when you say very high, is this a team
like if you were doing like a six pack of
Super Bowl teams with the Broncos be there or not quite?
Speaker 4 (08:59):
No, I don't think think they're quite that high. They're
but we like them a lot. It's definitely surprising the
gap between the Broncos and the Chargers and our projections,
given that they were basically the same last year.
Speaker 3 (09:14):
That's interesting.
Speaker 2 (09:14):
So they have a really easy schedule, that amazing defense.
Week one, they face a rookie quarterback cam Ward. Week two,
we don't even know what the hell. The Colts have
a quarterback of Daniel Jones Anthony Richardson.
Speaker 3 (09:25):
So you're looking at a two and zero start. They'll
be favorite in both those games.
Speaker 2 (09:28):
Then it's the Chargers and then they step up Bengals, Eagles.
Speaker 4 (09:33):
Overall, we have them with an average schedule.
Speaker 2 (09:36):
Interesting first schedules. Who has the easiest and who has
the hardest? Where any teams that jump out you there?
Speaker 4 (09:43):
The easiest schedule is the forty nine Ers by far.
It's one of the reasons we're really high on them
this year. And the hardest schedule is the Giants followed
by the Eagles, which is one of the reasons we're
not as high as consensus on the Eagles repeating this year.
In fact, this is kind of a surprise. We ended
(10:03):
up as the Washington Commanders as our favorites in the
NFC East this year.
Speaker 3 (10:08):
WHOA, And that's mostly schedule dependent, No.
Speaker 4 (10:12):
No, it's also based on the idea that we think
that the Commander's defense is going to be better. We
think it's going to be kind of average, and we
think that the Eagles defense is not going to be
as good because defense is much less consistent than offense,
and their defense was so good last year. Their offense
was only thirteenth in DVOA during the regular season. Obviously,
(10:35):
that includes a couple of games without hurts, and they
were a little bit better than that if you you know,
don't include those games. They looked so good in the
Super Bowl. That's not the Eagles offense that we saw
for most of the season. So if their defense comes
back to the pack a little bit and their offense
is about the same as last year, and then they
had this very tough schedule, we see them kind of
(10:59):
you know, more as like the fourth or fifth best
team in the NFC rather than the best team.
Speaker 3 (11:03):
So let's dig into that.
Speaker 2 (11:04):
So why do you think there's such a disconnect between
the Eagles regular season offense, which you said was thirteenth,
and then in the Super Bowl and then NFC Championship
they scored like what forty eight fifty points or something. Yeah,
it does a lot of it have to do with, hey,
let's just look at the opponent in front of us
and run the ball down their throats with sick.
Speaker 4 (11:21):
Some of it is the Commander's defense was terrible last year,
especially against the run. Some of it is just I
think they just happen to have two good games. I mean,
sometimes you just wake up on the right side of
the bed, and if it happens to happen during the playoffs,
you're in pretty good shape because that's when you want
to have your best games. But I think people don't
(11:42):
realize defensively how much talent they've lost. We have the
Eagles with the most lost defensive veteran talent. We have
Miami second. They're depending on a lot of guys that
we believe in, guys like Moroajomo and Jylex Hunt. And Ringo,
but we don't know if those guys could be as
(12:04):
good as Josh Sweat and Milton Williams and Darius Slay.
We think they're good, but we don't know they're good,
So you have to expect the defense to come back
a bit.
Speaker 3 (12:14):
Hmmm. That is that.
Speaker 2 (12:16):
I would say that's one of the hotter takes I've heard,
because offensively, they've got a great offensive line, skill position,
guys all back. I don't love how Hurts has a
new offensive coordinator every year, but they still if you
look at their top end talent on defense, I mean
Jalen Carter, Jordan David Zack Bond like, I'm not seeing
any weaknesses year.
Speaker 3 (12:35):
That is interesting.
Speaker 4 (12:35):
The Eagles offense. I feel like people act as if
October and November never happened. Nobody talked about the Eagles
in November and October as one of the best offenses
in the league. They were really good during the playoffs.
That was not one of the best offenses in the league.
Despite the fact that they have a j Brown, despite
the fact that they have DeVante Smith, despite what Saquon
(12:58):
Barkley did in the offensive line, it simply was not
one of the five best offenses in the league last year. Defensively,
I absolutely agree with you. There's a ton of talent,
it's just defenses just is inconsistent, and you just can't expect.
They were from Week six onward they were like one
of the top ten defenses of the last forty years.
(13:19):
They're just not going to do that again. They need
like that was from week six onward they were amazing,
and you just have to expect they're going to come
back to the back a bit, especially given the guys
they lost.
Speaker 1 (13:31):
Fox Sports Radio has the best sports talk lineup in
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Speaker 3 (13:44):
I thought I heard you say Washington's defense is much improved.
If I'm wrong, call me on it. But Bobby Wagner
just turned thirty five. Yeah, I don't a lot.
Speaker 4 (13:55):
We don't know who their edge rushers are.
Speaker 2 (13:57):
Yeah, dedrich Wise and Torrent's arms, I mean not great.
Speaker 4 (14:02):
If Lotimore plays the way he did in the first
half of the year for the Saints, that is a
huge upgrade. Their secondary was really really bad last year.
If Amos is good, the rookie that's an upgrade too.
They were better against the run on first down, then
second and third. That tends to carry over a little
bit more to the future. So we have them with
(14:22):
an average defense, not a good defense. I don't think
they've got a good defense, and I agree. I don't
know where the pass rush is coming from other than
Frankie Luvu. But we think they can improve their defense
to average. And whereas the Eagles have the second hardest schedule,
the Commanders have the twelfth part of schedule because of
who finished first versus second in certain divisions last year.
Speaker 2 (14:45):
So I'm just looking at Washington last year. I remember
they had such a stretch where they were just pulling
games out of their rear, end beating the Giants by
three that memorable.
Speaker 3 (14:56):
Bank Night football.
Speaker 2 (14:59):
They are what the Chicago craziness? Another five point went
over the New York Giants. It looks like they were
like what nine in three and one score games.
Speaker 4 (15:09):
Yeah, we think they're gonna the underlying We think the
underlying stats for the Commanders will improve. Their luck will
probably not be as good, but the underlying stats will improve.
We don't see any reason to think that Daniels will
come back to the pack, although it's not like we
think he'll be better. The thing about rookie quarterbacks that
play as well as Daniels did last year is that
(15:32):
they don't tend to get better in their second year
because they're already so good. The one thing that is
going to regress. They were absurd on fourth downs last year,
like the best fourth down team basically ever, and there's
no way that that's going to continue.
Speaker 2 (15:47):
Yeah, elsewhere in the NFC, I have the Lions regressing.
I think it's a decent bet to think they could
fall out and miss the playoffs, losing both coordinators. Still
a lot of defensive questions. Where are you on Detroit,
which I believe was fifteen and two last year?
Speaker 4 (16:05):
We really like Detroit because they were so injured on
defense last year. Now they were very not injured on offense.
They were very healthy on offense. So the offense is
going to have more injuries and well, the loss of
brag now is big, but the defense should be better
with better health and especially getting Aiden Hutchinson back. I
(16:25):
do worry a little bit about the change in the coordinators.
I mean no disrespect to Aaron Glenn when I say
I worry a little bit more about the loss of
Ben Johnson that I do, Glenn, just because we've seen
the difference between Jared Goff with a coordinator who knows
how to use him and Jared Goff with a coordinator
who doesn't know how to use him. And we don't
(16:46):
quite know yet about the new offensive coordinator. But overall,
we feel like the Lions are still going to be
a top team in the NFC.
Speaker 2 (16:55):
So where are you in the NFC North, which is stack?
Do you have the Lions winning it?
Speaker 4 (16:59):
I have the Lions. Yeah, I like the Lions to
win it, but I think the forty nine ers are
also going to be really top. We really like Washington
and Philly is still going to be really good.
Speaker 2 (17:10):
I went on you know the herd and was prattling
on about the Minnesota Vikings.
Speaker 3 (17:15):
I love the coaching staff, I love the talent. It's
all about JJ McCarthy and I'm a believer in McCarthy.
Where do you have the Vikings this year?
Speaker 4 (17:23):
Just Gid, It's funny, we're so different. Our projections are
very different than your opinions. We have lower than the consensus.
Some of it is you just don't know what JJ
McCarthy is you have to expect rookie quarterbacks to be bad,
even though sometimes they're not. And JJ McCarthy is essentially
a rookie quarterback this year, even though he does have
(17:46):
that offense with maybe the best wide receiver in the
game and a really good number two wide receiver and
a really good tight end. You know, there's questions about
the offensive line and yeah, we don't know what McCarthy is.
And their defense, like the Eagles defense, defense should regress
a bit this year. The Vikings defense is very interesting
because they don't have players who you're like, yeah, that's
(18:09):
a top ten player at his position, and yet they
performed to such a ridiculous extent last year. I think
you can say, I don't know if they can continue
doing that. Like as much as I like Brian Flores
and I like guys like Andrew Van Ginkel, I don't
know if they can pull that off again.
Speaker 3 (18:25):
Yeah, that's interesting. So it sounds like it's pretty much
the same for you. In the NFC. Do you have
Falcons or Bucks winning the division?
Speaker 4 (18:33):
We like the Buccaneers. We like the Buccaneers. We think
people sleep on the Buccaneers a little bit. Not like
we think they're a real super Bowl contender, but like
everybody is so busy talking down that division that they
don't realize that there's some good talent there in Tampa Bay.
So yeah, we have the NFC mostly mostly the same,
with the same teams, except for the idea of San
(18:55):
Francisco being better and healthier and washing. We have Arizona
higher than I think consensus. We have Arizona's a definite
playoff contender. Their defense like better this year.
Speaker 2 (19:10):
Now that regarding Tampa Bay, this is an interesting one.
So they lose, They seemingly lose their offensive coordinator every year.
They just lost Legam Cohen and this new guy, I
had to look him up, Josh Grizzard. Very little that
I'm aware of about him. He's thirty five years old.
He was their passing game coordinator. I don't it doesn't
look like he's ever called plays before. How do you
(19:32):
guys factor that into your numbers or do you just not?
Speaker 4 (19:35):
All other things being equal, when a team has new
systems and a new coordinator, they do tend to take
a step back. I don't know if this quite qualifies
as that, because he's using all the same system. It's
not like they have to learn new language and new playbook.
It's the same as last year.
Speaker 3 (19:50):
Okay.
Speaker 4 (19:52):
For the most part, it's very difficult to incorporate coaching
in any kind of statistical projection because, like a good
example is Mike Vrabel in New England. I think we
have New England a little lower than consensus, in part
because you don't know what in Tennessee was the Titans
players and what was Vrabel. It's hard to know what
(20:15):
the real effect of Rabel as we think Vrabel is
a pretty good coach, but we don't know that Verrabel
is a pretty good coach. We just kind of think
he is. You have to see him with a couple
of different teams until you really know that he really
raises the players that he has under him.
Speaker 3 (20:30):
So it's like you can't put it, you can't quantify coaching.
But let me ask you about this one. So Jeff Fisher,
old school guy, was with the Rams and Jared Goff.
They were terrible. Enter Sean McVeigh and they take off
like a rocket ship.
Speaker 4 (20:45):
But we had no idea when Sean McVay started, so
that right, you didn't know until it happened that it
was going to happen.
Speaker 3 (20:52):
So there's really that's the coaching changes. But that's why
I'm down on the Lions. I don't know.
Speaker 2 (20:57):
And then you hear this Jamiir Gibbs talking about how, hey, yeah,
they're gonna line me up out wide more than they.
Speaker 4 (21:02):
Oh, people say stuff like that in the preseason every year.
Speaker 3 (21:04):
It never doesn't mean anything. Yeah, so don't overreact.
Speaker 4 (21:08):
Okay, I would remark, no guy, running backs. I was like,
they're gonna use me as a receiver more and I'm
gonna line up wide more. It never really happens.
Speaker 2 (21:15):
So the NFC, it sounds like you're pretty much status quo.
The AFC is the tough one because like some pretty
good teams, well one good team for sure missed the
playoffs last year in the Bengals, and I just I
have a hard time getting them back there given the
lack of defense.
Speaker 4 (21:30):
Uh, and they have.
Speaker 2 (21:32):
They've got an interesting experiment, right, Aaron. They just put
all their eggs in the burrow Chase Higgs basket, not that.
Speaker 4 (21:37):
Man, which is I mean a great basket. Yeah right,
I mean like we I think that the Bengals are
definitely playoff contenders again. This is where the idea of
defense being less consistent than offense comes in. It is
easier to predict that the Bengals offense will be really
good than to predict that the Bengals defense will be
(21:59):
really bad. We think it's gonna be bad, but that's
harder to predict than offense, and so you have to
like go a little bit more with offense when you
make preseason projections because it's easier to project.
Speaker 2 (22:12):
Yeah, that's the tough part about the Bengals. So they
lost games last year in which they scored thirty three points,
thirty eight points, thirty four, twenty seven, thirty eight, Like,
you can't lose those games when you're putting up that
many points with Burrow. But it appears there's no solution, Like,
have they made any defensive moves that you were like, ooh,
I like that.
Speaker 4 (22:31):
Honestly, the biggest defensive move they made is random chance.
Speaker 3 (22:37):
That can't be good.
Speaker 4 (22:39):
I agree with you. I'm not looking. I mean, especially, gee,
we spent our first round pick on a pass rusher
who were not sure is ready for the NFL because
he's all raw skill and no actual production. Oh and
by the way, we can't get him into camp because
we're buzzing around with his contract language that's not good.
Speaker 3 (23:01):
All around terrible.
Speaker 2 (23:03):
The problem is, like they're also in the division with
the Ravens, who are gonna win the division as we
I don't think the Steelers are gonna be good with Rogers,
do you.
Speaker 4 (23:11):
I mean my numbers First of all, for people who
don't know about DVOA have loved the Ravens to a
ridiculous extent for the last two years. So obviously I'm very,
very high on the Ravens. I don't think Rogers was
good last year. I thought he was kind of average,
you know. I mean, you can't just use that he
was with the Jets to explain away how bla he was.
(23:32):
I mean, if we think Garrett Wilson is really good,
then he had a really good receiver to work with,
and he had Devonte Adams for half the year, and yeah,
it was really blah. So yeah, we have the Steelers
defense regressing a little bit, even though I mean, obviously
there's still lots of good players on that defense, and
their offense is kind of blaw and the whole package
is kind of blaw. Yeah, and we may be underselling
(23:54):
them because we can't quantify the amazing Mike tomlin ability
to manage a locker room.
Speaker 3 (24:00):
Yeah, but Mike tom loanability.
Speaker 2 (24:01):
What about managing the Arthur Smith Aaron Rodgers relationship because.
Speaker 4 (24:05):
It seems like a really weird one, right, it does.
That doesn't like Arthur Smith wants to do play action
and quarterbacks will turn their back to the defense and
Rogers doesn't want to do that. And I mean Lafleur
was kind of like that when Laflora and Rogers worked
together in Green Bay. It worked. But yeah, the Smith
Rogers marriage seems really strange.
Speaker 3 (24:24):
Yeah, that was like five years ago. He was a
little more.
Speaker 4 (24:26):
Mobile, was a little bit better quarterback.
Speaker 3 (24:30):
Hot take the Jags can win the division? Yes, oh
all right, because Jack.
Speaker 4 (24:37):
Marsh is our narrow favorite in the afccon you.
Speaker 3 (24:39):
Have them as the favorite.
Speaker 2 (24:40):
Yes, So I'm guessing a lot of this is, Hey,
their offense can really cook with a health of Lawrence
Travis Hunter Thomas was amazing, the running game's good offense.
Speaker 3 (24:50):
They might have the best offense in the division.
Speaker 4 (24:54):
I think it's more, I mean their defense should be
better also, and it's more that Houston runs into a
similar problem as Philadelphia, which is defense that good doesn't
usually stay that good. And their offense collapsed last year
because the offensive line was so bad, but the defense
carried that team to the playoffs. What if the defense
(25:14):
isn't as good this year and the Jaguars are a
little bit better on both sides of the ball. Now,
the Jaguars passed the Texans. I mean it's not like
the Jaguars are competing with the Baltimore and Buffalo and
Kansas City or anything like that. But now the Jaguars
are the better team in the division.
Speaker 2 (25:30):
Interesting. So you said Houston's offensive line was atrocious. Why
did they give away Laramie Tunzel?
Speaker 3 (25:36):
What was that all about?
Speaker 4 (25:40):
I think it was a feeling like they just needed
to start from scratch with the offensive line. I mean,
there's just a lot of guys now, their offensive line,
there's a lot of guys and you don't quite know
who's going to play where and how they fit together.
And I mean, I agree with you the Tunsil trade.
If your weakness is offensive line, trading your ben's offensive
(26:01):
lineman is a weird.
Speaker 1 (26:02):
Look.
Speaker 2 (26:03):
Yeah, So this guy, Blake Fisher, Notre Dame second round pick,
graded out as the seventy ninth out of eighty one
right tackle or tackles.
Speaker 3 (26:12):
And then Cam ye oh really.
Speaker 4 (26:15):
Who may not be the starter.
Speaker 2 (26:18):
Cam Robinson they have projected at left tackle. He's been
up and down throughout his career. It looks like they're
gonna have a Jake Andrews, a brand new center. Like
I like nothing about this line, man.
Speaker 4 (26:30):
Yeah, their line is if there's like Trent Brown is
around now and there's a second round rookie named aaronte
Ursery from Minnesota. Oh yeah, yeah, there's Jarrett Patterson, There's
Juw Scruggs. There's Titus Howard who might play tackle but
might play guard, and they move him back and forth
like it's like a lot of who knows what is
(26:53):
on this line.
Speaker 3 (26:54):
I like to call that like a poo poo platter
of eight.
Speaker 4 (26:56):
Or nine guys and none of it seems to be
a really good combination of five guys which gonna be
the same problems as last year.
Speaker 1 (27:05):
Fox Sports Radio has the best sports talk lineup in
the nation. Catch all of our shows at foxsports Radio
dot com and within the iHeartRadio app. Search FSR to
listen live.
Speaker 2 (27:17):
Obviously, your site FTN Fantasy Huge on Fantasy, are there
any major surprises? I mean, I'm not even close to
a fantasy draft. We don't start till early August, but
I'm starting to do the homework and I don't know.
It seems like Saque's probably you know, if you get
the first pick's probably gonna be the guy.
Speaker 3 (27:35):
But I've got to I've.
Speaker 2 (27:36):
Got to ask the year after McCaffrey had his heavy
usage rate two years ago, we saw the injuries.
Speaker 3 (27:42):
Saque was used so heavily last year.
Speaker 2 (27:44):
I cannot imagine that they even use him anywhere close
to the sable.
Speaker 4 (27:48):
There's something to worry about. And I believe we have
our number one fantasy guy as Bijon Robinson. What Yeah,
he was top like four or five last year. So
if you think of Barkley regressing a little bit and whatever,
you either that. I mean, obviously it depends on the
rules of your league, right, Yes, wide receiver. The league
(28:10):
kind of favors wide receivers. It's more Jamar Chase is
the number one guy in your league. But as the
running backs, we have b Jeon Robinson a little bit
ahead of Barkley.
Speaker 2 (28:18):
Interesting, I'm looking at Bijon Robinson. He obviously had a
really good season. They got a lot of weapons on
that team.
Speaker 3 (28:24):
They like Drake London. I'm curious, does the change from
Cousins to Pennix do anything for you regarding b John
Robinson's usage.
Speaker 4 (28:34):
Yes, well, no, because Pennix is not really a mobile
He's more mobile than Cousins, but he's not really a
mobile quarterback. Right. Mobile quarterbacks tend to make running backs
gain more yards per carry because you have to respect that.
They might keep the ball and it stops linebackers and
guys do a little bit better. But Pennix isn't that
(28:55):
kind of quarterback. But at least he can like hand off.
You know, Cousins wasn't moving around very well last year.
Penix is at least better than that.
Speaker 2 (29:05):
So I'm looking at his numbers last year, Bijon, it
looks like there was a slight tickup in usage in December.
Starting in December, he had a lot of twenty carry
Game three. He hadn't had that prior.
Speaker 4 (29:16):
Now.
Speaker 2 (29:16):
I don't know if that has to do with Aljier
offensive line or what have you, But I don't know
if there's a correlation between that and Pennix and he
uses a receiver.
Speaker 4 (29:24):
He's used as a receiver a lot, right, So that's
another reason why if you're in a league, it's a
PPR or a half PPR. Really, I mean, I know
Saquon is obviously too. I'm not saying Saquon's not great.
I just it's interesting that when Jeff Radcliffe, who does
our projections and has won a lot of awards for
his projections, when he sent me the whole final list,
I was really soocked that it had Bjon Robinson as
(29:46):
the top guy in most standard league.
Speaker 3 (29:49):
Scoring soon one two. I'm a good assume McCaffrey three.
Speaker 4 (29:54):
Among running backs. Probably obviously you're taking a real risk
with McCaffrey and Janty is uh really high like in projections,
like the Raiders are going to use him a ton.
Huh a rookie and everything we know about how Pete
Carroll wants to play like they are gonna depend on
(30:15):
him a lot.
Speaker 2 (30:16):
I can't remember the last time I took a rookie
in the first round of a fantasy football draft.
Speaker 3 (30:20):
It might be like.
Speaker 4 (30:22):
Exception, man, he's a guy that's worth it. And then
obviously for receivers, Jamar Chase, you know, justin Jefferson.
Speaker 2 (30:27):
Yeah, any major, any super sleepers out there that we
need to be aware of, guys who are probably not
on everyone else's radar, who could pop. I feel like
Green Bay may have something. They've got, like five good receivers.
It seems like a trade could be coming for them
at some point.
Speaker 4 (30:43):
Yeah, if they are able to trade receivers and they
give like a guy like Matthew Golden who's also a rookie,
is they give him a bigger job? I mean, you know,
the basic fantasy football, you take rookies a little earlier
because you never know maybe that they you know, they
have a higher upside, but they have a lower down side.
And Golden is a good interesting guy to look at,
(31:05):
especially if the Packers do trade one of their receivers.
Speaker 2 (31:09):
Uh. Any thoughts fantasy wise on going heavy on Jalen
Wattle given all the Tyreek Hill uncertainty. Tyreek Hill is
always cranky. Maybe he gets shipped to a content I
don't I don't know, but yeah.
Speaker 4 (31:20):
But I gotta think Wattle does waddle, He does his
thing in that offense. Whether it is more dependent on
whether Tua is healthy then whether Hill is there or not.
I'm not. I don't feel like Waddle is gonna suddenly
be putting up hill like numbers.
Speaker 2 (31:35):
Uh Jayla, I'm sorry, neighbor, Milik Neighbors.
Speaker 3 (31:39):
Does he concern you given he has no quarterback again
this year?
Speaker 4 (31:42):
No? Man, A lot of these top receivers they eat
whether their quarterback is good or not. It's like the
number twos and number threes that suffer.
Speaker 3 (31:51):
Uh.
Speaker 2 (31:51):
You mentioned your bad You mentioned the Arizona Cardinals earlier
as a bye. I kind of like them as well.
With the schedule continuity. They brought back is Kyler. You're
a sleeper quarterback even all the weapons they have.
Speaker 4 (32:03):
Yeah, man, you want them to use Marvin Harrison a
little better though, Like like yeah, he wasn't very good
on like go routes, Like don't just send him down
the field, like let him move around and root run
and like make cuts and stuff. I think that's a
better way to use him.
Speaker 3 (32:17):
Seattle Seahawks bring in Sam Darnold at quarterback. They lose.
Speaker 2 (32:23):
Netcalf, they lose Lockett. I you know, I'm not saying
Cooper Cup is washed, but he's near the end. MVS
is a one trick Pony is JSN like a deep
sleeper to like lead the league in targets and receptions.
Speaker 4 (32:37):
I don't know if he'll lead the league in targets
and receptions, but he's I think he's You're right, I
mean Cup, we don't know what Cup has left, and
no MVS is nobody's idea of a starter. So I
do think the Jasen is going to have a good year.
Speaker 3 (32:50):
Yeah, I don't love their defense at all. Seattle just
kind of of the coordinator I do.
Speaker 4 (32:56):
You don't know if the players are the right players
to make it all work. Their defense was like tenth
or something last year. We have it regressing, But I'm
definitely willing to like to accept the argument that McDonald
is so good that they're not going to regress, that
they're actually going to get better. But the offense is
just like nothing exciting, Like, you know, the interior offensive
(33:20):
line isn't good and and the running backs are fine,
but they're nothing really that special, and there isn't wide
receiver depth and the offense just doesn't excite me.
Speaker 3 (33:31):
All right, A couple just two more quick ones to
New Orleans Saints. I don't think.
Speaker 2 (33:34):
I don't think there's a more boring irrelevant team in
the league than them. A. Do you know who their
starting quarterback is going to be? And then B or
do you have any of their players draftable in fantasy?
Speaker 4 (33:44):
Tyler Shuck is the starting quarterback for sure, I'm pretty
sure WHOA. Yeah, not Rattler, not really.
Speaker 3 (33:51):
I mean, dude, he was so undistinguished in college. It
was like he played like seven years and was never good.
Speaker 4 (33:57):
He was good in the last year. I guess at Louisville, like,
I mean, you take a guy in the second round
that that's your guy. Kamara is probably still obviously draftable.
A Lave is still, like I said, number one receivers
tend to eat even when the quarterback's bad. Never yel
you know a Lave is healthy and not getting concussions.
I think Olave is still a worthwhile fantasy pick. But
(34:18):
you're right, the Saints are have the least amount of
hope of any team in the league, because at least
with like the Giants and the Panther there's like hope,
maybe Bryce Young takes another step forward, maybe Jackson Dart
is good. There's none of that hope for the Saints,
and when you look at their cap situation for future years.
It makes the hope even disappear more war.
Speaker 2 (34:37):
Yeah, we could wrap up with the Cowboys only because
they seem to be a team divided among the fans,
like are they going to be awful?
Speaker 3 (34:44):
Are they a six win team?
Speaker 1 (34:45):
Eight?
Speaker 2 (34:46):
The defense has some question marks. I think they'll be
chasing points a lot this year, So I actually think
Dak could put up big numbers with Lamb and Pickens.
And I don't love their run game. If Javonte Williams
is your one, you don't have a one. Offensive line's
not great. I think it's gonna be chucking duck for deck.
He could throw for like forty five hundred yards.
Speaker 4 (35:03):
I've heard people who are excited about Jaden Blue, and
I'm like, if you're excited about a fifth round running back,
you're not really excited about your running like that guy
where you're like, hey, fifth round running back, boy, we're
coming after you.
Speaker 1 (35:18):
Right.
Speaker 4 (35:19):
It's not like Janty or something. So I'm with you.
The defense, you don't know exactly how the health is
of the cornerbacks. You don't know how good the edge
rushers are. Other than Michael Parsons. You definitely could be
passing a lot. Remember I mean Dak Prescott finished second
second in the MVP race two years ago.
Speaker 2 (35:38):
Yeah, there's no reason he can't put up big numbers.
Speaker 3 (35:41):
I don't think you're gonna win.
Speaker 2 (35:42):
But finally I got to ask my Jets, do you
have them at all anywhere near the playoffs?
Speaker 3 (35:48):
Any by players? Regarding fantasy, I'm.
Speaker 4 (35:51):
Not a fields believer. I think Arrett Wilson will get
his certainly. I like Bryce Hall, although they've talked about
using more of a committee, and I like brayln To
that got good running backs and the tackle right we
have believe in the tackles, the young tackles. But I'm
just not a justin fields guy. I'm just not. I
do think their defense will be better because cornerback play
(36:13):
is really inconsistent and Sauce really fell off last year,
which means he's likely to rebound and be back to
being You know, Sauce was so good the two years
before that that for him to fall off last year.
If you look at him over three years, he still
looks like one of the best cornerbacks in the league,
and he should play a lot better than he did live.
Speaker 3 (36:33):
Do you think a lot of that was solid getting fired.
Speaker 4 (36:36):
I have no idea. I don't know whether how much
is that versus just the natural inconsistency of corners.
Speaker 3 (36:43):
Yeah, good stuff.
Speaker 2 (36:44):
Aaron Shotts, FTN Fantasy Chief Analytics Officer. He is the
DVOA legend to be writing for ESPN gambling stuff this season.
Speaker 4 (36:53):
Still do ESPN stuff, gambling and historical also historical articles
and stuff during the season. People should get the book
for all the stuff that I've been talking about and
all of our projections, all of Jeff Radcliffe's fantasy projections,
is the FTN Football Almanac twenty twenty five. So you
go to Ftnfantasy dot com slash Almanac.
Speaker 2 (37:14):
If you want to get if you want to win fantasy,
you know, if you want to do well and gambling,
you gotta have this stuff, all right.
Speaker 3 (37:18):
Aaron, thanks a lot. I just wish you were a
Jets fan. Man this Patriots love.
Speaker 4 (37:23):
Hey, what can I say? In Massachusetts' home
This is Straight Fire with Jason McIntyre.
Speaker 2 (00:11):
What is up, Drag Fire, Fam, It's me Jason McIntyre,
Straight Foyer for Thursday, July seventeenth. It might surprise you guys,
but I think we are approaching the five year mark.
Speaker 3 (00:24):
It's possible of this podcast five years.
Speaker 2 (00:27):
I just remember we started during COVID, and obviously COVID's
like five years and a couple months old now, and
I've got to look back up in the files to
see when I came on. But man, I can't believe
it's been five years or about five years. But we
have a phenomenal podcast. If this is the five year anniversary,
it's not Aaron Shots, the guy who you was at
(00:49):
Football Outsiders. We're starting our heavy football previews now where
we just talk about the league, we talk about fantasy gambling.
You're gonna love Aaron Shots and stuff. Remember he's the
guy who created DVOA. If you're gambling, you obviously use that.
And he's got a lot of fantasy at a site
FTN Fantasy now, so you're like Aaron shottz our chat.
Speaker 3 (01:07):
Now.
Speaker 2 (01:07):
Two other little pieces of sports news went down yesterday.
Speaker 3 (01:15):
And then the SPI's happened.
Speaker 2 (01:17):
I'm not really familiar with this guy, Shane Gillis, comedian.
Speaker 3 (01:21):
I had to look him up. I knew I knew
the name.
Speaker 2 (01:23):
Obviously, he was the guy who got hired on SNL
and I guess then he got canceled for some old
jokes that were racist. Anyway, Shane Gillis never seen him live.
That guy pretty much crushed the intro. He's not going
to be invited back because it was, you know, pushing
the boundaries and then way way beyond. I thought it
(01:43):
was funny. I think we need more of that, like
this is sports, let's not take ourselves too seriously. So
I greatly enjoyed it. I'm sure you guys have seen
some of the clips online. I would highly suggest looking
into this guy. Shane Gillis monologue. He had some jokes
about Caitlin Clark obviously, some political.
Speaker 3 (02:02):
Jokes or some Belichick stuff.
Speaker 2 (02:04):
I mean, listen, it wasn't quite the Tom Brady roast,
but it was, you know, for something that appeared on TV,
about as as close as you're gonna get in the
sports world. So and then the other two items were
the Commanders landed Von Miller. But that's not a bad get. Interestingly,
this happened well after we spoke to Aaron Shots and
(02:26):
we talked about it.
Speaker 3 (02:27):
They don't have a pass rush.
Speaker 2 (02:28):
So the von Miller thing dovetails beautifully into the interview.
The other is on the NBA side, and that is
Bradley Beal.
Speaker 1 (02:34):
Ugh.
Speaker 2 (02:35):
I was all fired up for him to go to Lakers,
and I gotta be honest, him going to the Clippers,
which we talked about, is kind of devastating for Lakers fans, like,
I don't know what your movie is now, you ain't
getting kaminga. There just aren't a lot of guys out there,
and Bradley Beal would have been perfect. It seems like
he was kind of sort of given a handshake deal,
(02:56):
you'll be the starter. I mean, you know, people are
really down on him.
Speaker 3 (03:04):
And I get that. You know, they didn't even make
the playoffs.
Speaker 4 (03:05):
J What are you talking about?
Speaker 3 (03:06):
He's washed?
Speaker 2 (03:07):
Okay, that's fine, He's not that old. He does have
an injury history. But this is a guy who can
get you buckets and at five million dollars a year,
I can almost guarantee you when you talk pound four
pound best contract. When it comes to like points, assists,
rebounds and stuff. He's going to probably be top three
(03:28):
in the league, if not number one, because he's only
at five million a year. The Clippers bench will be
incredibly deep. Now, I mean, I hate to say it.
You know it's Houston, Denver, OKC, and the Clippers. Those
are on paper clearly the top four. Then you've got
the Lakers. Then you've got the Warriors because they still
(03:49):
have Steph Curry. I think a lot of people love Minnesota.
I'm not as high on them.
Speaker 3 (03:53):
I thought the.
Speaker 2 (03:55):
Well, we'll see, I'm not as high on Minnesota. Dallas
when they get Kyrie back, the Spurs are going to
be really, really good.
Speaker 3 (04:03):
It's gonna be a difficult year in the West. Uh,
Lakers gotta be frustrated.
Speaker 2 (04:09):
Anyways, Without further ado, let's get to our guest, Aaron
Shatz of FTN Fantasy.
Speaker 1 (04:17):
You know a guy, Jason likes to think he knows
everything when it comes to sports.
Speaker 4 (04:22):
I know what sports fans want, but for.
Speaker 1 (04:24):
Everything he doesn't, he knows a guy who does.
Speaker 4 (04:27):
Let's just say I know a guy who knows a
guy who knows another guy.
Speaker 3 (04:32):
All right, let's welcome in to straight fire.
Speaker 2 (04:34):
A guy we talked to multiple times a year about football,
usually off season in season. I mean, listen to this
guy is the Dvoa King. He's the chief analytics officer
for FTN Fantasy Aaron shots erin, how you doing, man.
Speaker 4 (04:48):
I'm good, man, I made it through another book writing season.
I'm ready for the off season to be over and
I'm ready to have some football.
Speaker 3 (04:54):
Yeah, it's July. Is that time?
Speaker 1 (04:56):
Right?
Speaker 3 (04:56):
You get the MLB All Star Game and an NBA.
Speaker 2 (04:59):
Free agency one dot, and then the camps are opening
up here in about a week, and everybody wants to know, Oh,
who's gonna be good this year? Fantasy gambling, Oh, super Bowl?
Everybody gets all excited. So you've put in the work. Okay,
Usually I take like a little break off NFL in
June because there's not much happening. And now you've looked
at all the depth charts, You've analyzed all the moves,
(05:19):
the late Aaron Rodgers move. I don't think that moves
the needle for Pittsburgh. But I'm curious where do you
stand now heading into this season? Big picture around the league?
Are we seeing a changing of the guard? Is the
Chiefs run over?
Speaker 3 (05:31):
Do you expect it to continue. Eagles repeat, where are
you at the top of the league?
Speaker 4 (05:35):
I mean, I will say that teams that can't win
in the playoffs can't win in the playoffs until the
year they finally do. One of these years, somebody is
going to break the chief string and it's probably going
to be either Buffalo or Baltimore. If you look at
our DVOA stat that's the main stat that we use,
(05:56):
which looks at every play and compares it to an
average play for opponent. The best team since nineteen seventy
eight over a five year period to not make the
Super Bowl is the Bills over the last five years.
The second best team to not make a Super Bowl
is the Ravens over the last five years. So the
Chiefs have really kept these two really good teams from
(06:21):
finally making it, and the odds are one of them
will finally make it this year.
Speaker 3 (06:26):
So do you think the Chiefs take a big step back?
Speaker 1 (06:29):
Is it?
Speaker 2 (06:29):
I mean, I think they won eleven to zero, one
score game, some ridiculous number. However, they didn't really have
a wide receiver room. But at the same time, like
Travis Kelcey, started to look his age in the postseason,
I'm on record, I think the Chiefs can miss the playoffs.
Speaker 3 (06:42):
I think the AFC is absolutely better. I'm with you.
Speaker 2 (06:45):
I like the Bills a lot, I like the Ravens,
don't love them, but I see a big step back
for the Chiefs. I know that sounds crazy because they
have Mahomes and Reid, but do you think that they
are better than last year as good? I mean, both
their tackles huge question heading into the season.
Speaker 4 (07:01):
I think they're about as good as last year, but
they're not going to have the luck. They're not going
to have the other quarterback drop the snap at the
end of the game and field goal, you know, all
that weird stuff that happened with them last year. So
they're not going fifteen and two again. But I do
think that the better wide receiver room, you know, assuming
(07:23):
that Rashie ris it doesn't get suspended for the legal
problems that he has, I think that that does help
counter the decline of Travis Kelcey and the questions that
left tackle and Mahomes. You know, papers over a lot
of problems, and the coaching staff is fantastic, and I
do think they're still the favorite in the AFC West.
But I don't think they're the favorite in the AFC
(07:45):
entirely interesting.
Speaker 3 (07:47):
AFC West got better, Raiders got a real coach.
Speaker 2 (07:50):
Chargers had a really good offseason, I thought, And the
Denver Broncos I'm seeing, I don't know. I'm curious what
your numbers say they're supposed to have the best defense
in the league this year.
Speaker 4 (08:00):
Are surprisingly high on Denver and surprisingly low on the Chargers.
We see the Chargers defense really coming back to the pack,
a lot of regression that they really improved last year.
Some of that was the coordinator, Jesse Minter, and so
certainly Minter could be having more of an effect than
our numbers can analyze, and the Chargers defense will be
(08:22):
better than we think it is. You know, I think
the receivers are you know, McConkie's good, but it's the
same questions about all the other receivers that the Chargers
always seem to have. Whereas our numbers love the Broncos.
I think the Broncos defense is our number one projected defense.
You know, there's so many great players on that defense.
(08:43):
Peyton did a great job of managing bow Knicks and
making boon Nicks look good on the offensive side of
the ball. We're very high on the Broncos this year.
Speaker 2 (08:51):
Wow, when you say very high, is this a team
like if you were doing like a six pack of
Super Bowl teams with the Broncos be there or not quite?
Speaker 4 (08:59):
No, I don't think think they're quite that high. They're
but we like them a lot. It's definitely surprising the
gap between the Broncos and the Chargers and our projections,
given that they were basically the same last year.
Speaker 3 (09:14):
That's interesting.
Speaker 2 (09:14):
So they have a really easy schedule, that amazing defense.
Week one, they face a rookie quarterback cam Ward. Week two,
we don't even know what the hell. The Colts have
a quarterback of Daniel Jones Anthony Richardson.
Speaker 3 (09:25):
So you're looking at a two and zero start. They'll
be favorite in both those games.
Speaker 2 (09:28):
Then it's the Chargers and then they step up Bengals, Eagles.
Speaker 4 (09:33):
Overall, we have them with an average schedule.
Speaker 2 (09:36):
Interesting first schedules. Who has the easiest and who has
the hardest? Where any teams that jump out you there?
Speaker 4 (09:43):
The easiest schedule is the forty nine Ers by far.
It's one of the reasons we're really high on them
this year. And the hardest schedule is the Giants followed
by the Eagles, which is one of the reasons we're
not as high as consensus on the Eagles repeating this year.
In fact, this is kind of a surprise. We ended
(10:03):
up as the Washington Commanders as our favorites in the
NFC East this year.
Speaker 3 (10:08):
WHOA, And that's mostly schedule dependent, No.
Speaker 4 (10:12):
No, it's also based on the idea that we think
that the Commander's defense is going to be better. We
think it's going to be kind of average, and we
think that the Eagles defense is not going to be
as good because defense is much less consistent than offense,
and their defense was so good last year. Their offense
was only thirteenth in DVOA during the regular season. Obviously,
(10:35):
that includes a couple of games without hurts, and they
were a little bit better than that if you you know,
don't include those games. They looked so good in the
Super Bowl. That's not the Eagles offense that we saw
for most of the season. So if their defense comes
back to the pack a little bit and their offense
is about the same as last year, and then they
had this very tough schedule, we see them kind of
(10:59):
you know, more as like the fourth or fifth best
team in the NFC rather than the best team.
Speaker 3 (11:03):
So let's dig into that.
Speaker 2 (11:04):
So why do you think there's such a disconnect between
the Eagles regular season offense, which you said was thirteenth,
and then in the Super Bowl and then NFC Championship
they scored like what forty eight fifty points or something. Yeah,
it does a lot of it have to do with, hey,
let's just look at the opponent in front of us
and run the ball down their throats with sick.
Speaker 4 (11:21):
Some of it is the Commander's defense was terrible last year,
especially against the run. Some of it is just I
think they just happen to have two good games. I mean,
sometimes you just wake up on the right side of
the bed, and if it happens to happen during the playoffs,
you're in pretty good shape because that's when you want
to have your best games. But I think people don't
(11:42):
realize defensively how much talent they've lost. We have the
Eagles with the most lost defensive veteran talent. We have
Miami second. They're depending on a lot of guys that
we believe in, guys like Moroajomo and Jylex Hunt. And Ringo,
but we don't know if those guys could be as
(12:04):
good as Josh Sweat and Milton Williams and Darius Slay.
We think they're good, but we don't know they're good,
So you have to expect the defense to come back
a bit.
Speaker 3 (12:14):
Hmmm. That is that.
Speaker 2 (12:16):
I would say that's one of the hotter takes I've heard,
because offensively, they've got a great offensive line, skill position,
guys all back. I don't love how Hurts has a
new offensive coordinator every year, but they still if you
look at their top end talent on defense, I mean
Jalen Carter, Jordan David Zack Bond like, I'm not seeing
any weaknesses year.
Speaker 3 (12:35):
That is interesting.
Speaker 4 (12:35):
The Eagles offense. I feel like people act as if
October and November never happened. Nobody talked about the Eagles
in November and October as one of the best offenses
in the league. They were really good during the playoffs.
That was not one of the best offenses in the league.
Despite the fact that they have a j Brown, despite
the fact that they have DeVante Smith, despite what Saquon
(12:58):
Barkley did in the offensive line, it simply was not
one of the five best offenses in the league last year. Defensively,
I absolutely agree with you. There's a ton of talent,
it's just defenses just is inconsistent, and you just can't expect.
They were from Week six onward they were like one
of the top ten defenses of the last forty years.
(13:19):
They're just not going to do that again. They need
like that was from week six onward they were amazing,
and you just have to expect they're going to come
back to the back a bit, especially given the guys
they lost.
Speaker 1 (13:31):
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Speaker 3 (13:44):
I thought I heard you say Washington's defense is much improved.
If I'm wrong, call me on it. But Bobby Wagner
just turned thirty five. Yeah, I don't a lot.
Speaker 4 (13:55):
We don't know who their edge rushers are.
Speaker 2 (13:57):
Yeah, dedrich Wise and Torrent's arms, I mean not great.
Speaker 4 (14:02):
If Lotimore plays the way he did in the first
half of the year for the Saints, that is a
huge upgrade. Their secondary was really really bad last year.
If Amos is good, the rookie that's an upgrade too.
They were better against the run on first down, then
second and third. That tends to carry over a little
bit more to the future. So we have them with
(14:22):
an average defense, not a good defense. I don't think
they've got a good defense, and I agree. I don't
know where the pass rush is coming from other than
Frankie Luvu. But we think they can improve their defense
to average. And whereas the Eagles have the second hardest schedule,
the Commanders have the twelfth part of schedule because of
who finished first versus second in certain divisions last year.
Speaker 2 (14:45):
So I'm just looking at Washington last year. I remember
they had such a stretch where they were just pulling
games out of their rear, end beating the Giants by
three that memorable.
Speaker 3 (14:56):
Bank Night football.
Speaker 2 (14:59):
They are what the Chicago craziness? Another five point went
over the New York Giants. It looks like they were
like what nine in three and one score games.
Speaker 4 (15:09):
Yeah, we think they're gonna the underlying We think the
underlying stats for the Commanders will improve. Their luck will
probably not be as good, but the underlying stats will improve.
We don't see any reason to think that Daniels will
come back to the pack, although it's not like we
think he'll be better. The thing about rookie quarterbacks that
play as well as Daniels did last year is that
(15:32):
they don't tend to get better in their second year
because they're already so good. The one thing that is
going to regress. They were absurd on fourth downs last year,
like the best fourth down team basically ever, and there's
no way that that's going to continue.
Speaker 2 (15:47):
Yeah, elsewhere in the NFC, I have the Lions regressing.
I think it's a decent bet to think they could
fall out and miss the playoffs, losing both coordinators. Still
a lot of defensive questions. Where are you on Detroit,
which I believe was fifteen and two last year?
Speaker 4 (16:05):
We really like Detroit because they were so injured on
defense last year. Now they were very not injured on offense.
They were very healthy on offense. So the offense is
going to have more injuries and well, the loss of
brag now is big, but the defense should be better
with better health and especially getting Aiden Hutchinson back. I
(16:25):
do worry a little bit about the change in the coordinators.
I mean no disrespect to Aaron Glenn when I say
I worry a little bit more about the loss of
Ben Johnson that I do, Glenn, just because we've seen
the difference between Jared Goff with a coordinator who knows
how to use him and Jared Goff with a coordinator
who doesn't know how to use him. And we don't
(16:46):
quite know yet about the new offensive coordinator. But overall,
we feel like the Lions are still going to be
a top team in the NFC.
Speaker 2 (16:55):
So where are you in the NFC North, which is stack?
Do you have the Lions winning it?
Speaker 4 (16:59):
I have the Lions. Yeah, I like the Lions to
win it, but I think the forty nine ers are
also going to be really top. We really like Washington
and Philly is still going to be really good.
Speaker 2 (17:10):
I went on you know the herd and was prattling
on about the Minnesota Vikings.
Speaker 3 (17:15):
I love the coaching staff, I love the talent. It's
all about JJ McCarthy and I'm a believer in McCarthy.
Where do you have the Vikings this year?
Speaker 4 (17:23):
Just Gid, It's funny, we're so different. Our projections are
very different than your opinions. We have lower than the consensus.
Some of it is you just don't know what JJ
McCarthy is you have to expect rookie quarterbacks to be bad,
even though sometimes they're not. And JJ McCarthy is essentially
a rookie quarterback this year, even though he does have
(17:46):
that offense with maybe the best wide receiver in the
game and a really good number two wide receiver and
a really good tight end. You know, there's questions about
the offensive line and yeah, we don't know what McCarthy is.
And their defense, like the Eagles defense, defense should regress
a bit this year. The Vikings defense is very interesting
because they don't have players who you're like, yeah, that's
(18:09):
a top ten player at his position, and yet they
performed to such a ridiculous extent last year. I think
you can say, I don't know if they can continue
doing that. Like as much as I like Brian Flores
and I like guys like Andrew Van Ginkel, I don't
know if they can pull that off again.
Speaker 3 (18:25):
Yeah, that's interesting. So it sounds like it's pretty much
the same for you. In the NFC. Do you have
Falcons or Bucks winning the division?
Speaker 4 (18:33):
We like the Buccaneers. We like the Buccaneers. We think
people sleep on the Buccaneers a little bit. Not like
we think they're a real super Bowl contender, but like
everybody is so busy talking down that division that they
don't realize that there's some good talent there in Tampa Bay.
So yeah, we have the NFC mostly mostly the same,
with the same teams, except for the idea of San
(18:55):
Francisco being better and healthier and washing. We have Arizona
higher than I think consensus. We have Arizona's a definite
playoff contender. Their defense like better this year.
Speaker 2 (19:10):
Now that regarding Tampa Bay, this is an interesting one.
So they lose, They seemingly lose their offensive coordinator every year.
They just lost Legam Cohen and this new guy, I
had to look him up, Josh Grizzard. Very little that
I'm aware of about him. He's thirty five years old.
He was their passing game coordinator. I don't it doesn't
look like he's ever called plays before. How do you
(19:32):
guys factor that into your numbers or do you just not?
Speaker 4 (19:35):
All other things being equal, when a team has new
systems and a new coordinator, they do tend to take
a step back. I don't know if this quite qualifies
as that, because he's using all the same system. It's
not like they have to learn new language and new playbook.
It's the same as last year.
Speaker 3 (19:50):
Okay.
Speaker 4 (19:52):
For the most part, it's very difficult to incorporate coaching
in any kind of statistical projection because, like a good
example is Mike Vrabel in New England. I think we
have New England a little lower than consensus, in part
because you don't know what in Tennessee was the Titans
players and what was Vrabel. It's hard to know what
(20:15):
the real effect of Rabel as we think Vrabel is
a pretty good coach, but we don't know that Verrabel
is a pretty good coach. We just kind of think
he is. You have to see him with a couple
of different teams until you really know that he really
raises the players that he has under him.
Speaker 3 (20:30):
So it's like you can't put it, you can't quantify coaching.
But let me ask you about this one. So Jeff Fisher,
old school guy, was with the Rams and Jared Goff.
They were terrible. Enter Sean McVeigh and they take off
like a rocket ship.
Speaker 4 (20:45):
But we had no idea when Sean McVay started, so
that right, you didn't know until it happened that it
was going to happen.
Speaker 3 (20:52):
So there's really that's the coaching changes. But that's why
I'm down on the Lions. I don't know.
Speaker 2 (20:57):
And then you hear this Jamiir Gibbs talking about how, hey, yeah,
they're gonna line me up out wide more than they.
Speaker 4 (21:02):
Oh, people say stuff like that in the preseason every year.
Speaker 3 (21:04):
It never doesn't mean anything. Yeah, so don't overreact.
Speaker 4 (21:08):
Okay, I would remark, no guy, running backs. I was like,
they're gonna use me as a receiver more and I'm
gonna line up wide more. It never really happens.
Speaker 2 (21:15):
So the NFC, it sounds like you're pretty much status quo.
The AFC is the tough one because like some pretty
good teams, well one good team for sure missed the
playoffs last year in the Bengals, and I just I
have a hard time getting them back there given the
lack of defense.
Speaker 4 (21:30):
Uh, and they have.
Speaker 2 (21:32):
They've got an interesting experiment, right, Aaron. They just put
all their eggs in the burrow Chase Higgs basket, not that.
Speaker 4 (21:37):
Man, which is I mean a great basket. Yeah right,
I mean like we I think that the Bengals are
definitely playoff contenders again. This is where the idea of
defense being less consistent than offense comes in. It is
easier to predict that the Bengals offense will be really
good than to predict that the Bengals defense will be
(21:59):
really bad. We think it's gonna be bad, but that's
harder to predict than offense, and so you have to
like go a little bit more with offense when you
make preseason projections because it's easier to project.
Speaker 2 (22:12):
Yeah, that's the tough part about the Bengals. So they
lost games last year in which they scored thirty three points,
thirty eight points, thirty four, twenty seven, thirty eight, Like,
you can't lose those games when you're putting up that
many points with Burrow. But it appears there's no solution, Like,
have they made any defensive moves that you were like, ooh,
I like that.
Speaker 4 (22:31):
Honestly, the biggest defensive move they made is random chance.
Speaker 3 (22:37):
That can't be good.
Speaker 4 (22:39):
I agree with you. I'm not looking. I mean, especially, gee,
we spent our first round pick on a pass rusher
who were not sure is ready for the NFL because
he's all raw skill and no actual production. Oh and
by the way, we can't get him into camp because
we're buzzing around with his contract language that's not good.
Speaker 3 (23:01):
All around terrible.
Speaker 2 (23:03):
The problem is, like they're also in the division with
the Ravens, who are gonna win the division as we
I don't think the Steelers are gonna be good with Rogers,
do you.
Speaker 4 (23:11):
I mean my numbers First of all, for people who
don't know about DVOA have loved the Ravens to a
ridiculous extent for the last two years. So obviously I'm very,
very high on the Ravens. I don't think Rogers was
good last year. I thought he was kind of average,
you know. I mean, you can't just use that he
was with the Jets to explain away how bla he was.
(23:32):
I mean, if we think Garrett Wilson is really good,
then he had a really good receiver to work with,
and he had Devonte Adams for half the year, and yeah,
it was really blah. So yeah, we have the Steelers
defense regressing a little bit, even though I mean, obviously
there's still lots of good players on that defense, and
their offense is kind of blaw and the whole package
is kind of blaw. Yeah, and we may be underselling
(23:54):
them because we can't quantify the amazing Mike tomlin ability
to manage a locker room.
Speaker 3 (24:00):
Yeah, but Mike tom loanability.
Speaker 2 (24:01):
What about managing the Arthur Smith Aaron Rodgers relationship because.
Speaker 4 (24:05):
It seems like a really weird one, right, it does.
That doesn't like Arthur Smith wants to do play action
and quarterbacks will turn their back to the defense and
Rogers doesn't want to do that. And I mean Lafleur
was kind of like that when Laflora and Rogers worked
together in Green Bay. It worked. But yeah, the Smith
Rogers marriage seems really strange.
Speaker 3 (24:24):
Yeah, that was like five years ago. He was a
little more.
Speaker 4 (24:26):
Mobile, was a little bit better quarterback.
Speaker 3 (24:30):
Hot take the Jags can win the division? Yes, oh
all right, because Jack.
Speaker 4 (24:37):
Marsh is our narrow favorite in the afccon you.
Speaker 3 (24:39):
Have them as the favorite.
Speaker 2 (24:40):
Yes, So I'm guessing a lot of this is, Hey,
their offense can really cook with a health of Lawrence
Travis Hunter Thomas was amazing, the running game's good offense.
Speaker 3 (24:50):
They might have the best offense in the division.
Speaker 4 (24:54):
I think it's more, I mean their defense should be
better also, and it's more that Houston runs into a
similar problem as Philadelphia, which is defense that good doesn't
usually stay that good. And their offense collapsed last year
because the offensive line was so bad, but the defense
carried that team to the playoffs. What if the defense
(25:14):
isn't as good this year and the Jaguars are a
little bit better on both sides of the ball. Now,
the Jaguars passed the Texans. I mean it's not like
the Jaguars are competing with the Baltimore and Buffalo and
Kansas City or anything like that. But now the Jaguars
are the better team in the division.
Speaker 2 (25:30):
Interesting. So you said Houston's offensive line was atrocious. Why
did they give away Laramie Tunzel?
Speaker 3 (25:36):
What was that all about?
Speaker 4 (25:40):
I think it was a feeling like they just needed
to start from scratch with the offensive line. I mean,
there's just a lot of guys now, their offensive line,
there's a lot of guys and you don't quite know
who's going to play where and how they fit together.
And I mean, I agree with you the Tunsil trade.
If your weakness is offensive line, trading your ben's offensive
(26:01):
lineman is a weird.
Speaker 1 (26:02):
Look.
Speaker 2 (26:03):
Yeah, So this guy, Blake Fisher, Notre Dame second round pick,
graded out as the seventy ninth out of eighty one
right tackle or tackles.
Speaker 3 (26:12):
And then Cam ye oh really.
Speaker 4 (26:15):
Who may not be the starter.
Speaker 2 (26:18):
Cam Robinson they have projected at left tackle. He's been
up and down throughout his career. It looks like they're
gonna have a Jake Andrews, a brand new center. Like
I like nothing about this line, man.
Speaker 4 (26:30):
Yeah, their line is if there's like Trent Brown is
around now and there's a second round rookie named aaronte
Ursery from Minnesota. Oh yeah, yeah, there's Jarrett Patterson, There's
Juw Scruggs. There's Titus Howard who might play tackle but
might play guard, and they move him back and forth
like it's like a lot of who knows what is
(26:53):
on this line.
Speaker 3 (26:54):
I like to call that like a poo poo platter
of eight.
Speaker 4 (26:56):
Or nine guys and none of it seems to be
a really good combination of five guys which gonna be
the same problems as last year.
Speaker 1 (27:05):
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the nation. Catch all of our shows at foxsports Radio
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listen live.
Speaker 2 (27:17):
Obviously, your site FTN Fantasy Huge on Fantasy, are there
any major surprises? I mean, I'm not even close to
a fantasy draft. We don't start till early August, but
I'm starting to do the homework and I don't know.
It seems like Saque's probably you know, if you get
the first pick's probably gonna be the guy.
Speaker 3 (27:35):
But I've got to I've.
Speaker 2 (27:36):
Got to ask the year after McCaffrey had his heavy
usage rate two years ago, we saw the injuries.
Speaker 3 (27:42):
Saque was used so heavily last year.
Speaker 2 (27:44):
I cannot imagine that they even use him anywhere close
to the sable.
Speaker 4 (27:48):
There's something to worry about. And I believe we have
our number one fantasy guy as Bijon Robinson. What Yeah,
he was top like four or five last year. So
if you think of Barkley regressing a little bit and whatever,
you either that. I mean, obviously it depends on the
rules of your league, right, Yes, wide receiver. The league
(28:10):
kind of favors wide receivers. It's more Jamar Chase is
the number one guy in your league. But as the
running backs, we have b Jeon Robinson a little bit
ahead of Barkley.
Speaker 2 (28:18):
Interesting, I'm looking at Bijon Robinson. He obviously had a
really good season. They got a lot of weapons on
that team.
Speaker 3 (28:24):
They like Drake London. I'm curious, does the change from
Cousins to Pennix do anything for you regarding b John
Robinson's usage.
Speaker 4 (28:34):
Yes, well, no, because Pennix is not really a mobile
He's more mobile than Cousins, but he's not really a
mobile quarterback. Right. Mobile quarterbacks tend to make running backs
gain more yards per carry because you have to respect that.
They might keep the ball and it stops linebackers and
guys do a little bit better. But Pennix isn't that
(28:55):
kind of quarterback. But at least he can like hand off.
You know, Cousins wasn't moving around very well last year.
Penix is at least better than that.
Speaker 2 (29:05):
So I'm looking at his numbers last year, Bijon, it
looks like there was a slight tickup in usage in December.
Starting in December, he had a lot of twenty carry
Game three. He hadn't had that prior.
Speaker 4 (29:16):
Now.
Speaker 2 (29:16):
I don't know if that has to do with Aljier
offensive line or what have you, But I don't know
if there's a correlation between that and Pennix and he
uses a receiver.
Speaker 4 (29:24):
He's used as a receiver a lot, right, So that's
another reason why if you're in a league, it's a
PPR or a half PPR. Really, I mean, I know
Saquon is obviously too. I'm not saying Saquon's not great.
I just it's interesting that when Jeff Radcliffe, who does
our projections and has won a lot of awards for
his projections, when he sent me the whole final list,
I was really soocked that it had Bjon Robinson as
(29:46):
the top guy in most standard league.
Speaker 3 (29:49):
Scoring soon one two. I'm a good assume McCaffrey three.
Speaker 4 (29:54):
Among running backs. Probably obviously you're taking a real risk
with McCaffrey and Janty is uh really high like in projections,
like the Raiders are going to use him a ton.
Huh a rookie and everything we know about how Pete
Carroll wants to play like they are gonna depend on
(30:15):
him a lot.
Speaker 2 (30:16):
I can't remember the last time I took a rookie
in the first round of a fantasy football draft.
Speaker 3 (30:20):
It might be like.
Speaker 4 (30:22):
Exception, man, he's a guy that's worth it. And then
obviously for receivers, Jamar Chase, you know, justin Jefferson.
Speaker 2 (30:27):
Yeah, any major, any super sleepers out there that we
need to be aware of, guys who are probably not
on everyone else's radar, who could pop. I feel like
Green Bay may have something. They've got, like five good receivers.
It seems like a trade could be coming for them
at some point.
Speaker 4 (30:43):
Yeah, if they are able to trade receivers and they
give like a guy like Matthew Golden who's also a rookie,
is they give him a bigger job? I mean, you know,
the basic fantasy football, you take rookies a little earlier
because you never know maybe that they you know, they
have a higher upside, but they have a lower down side.
And Golden is a good interesting guy to look at,
(31:05):
especially if the Packers do trade one of their receivers.
Speaker 2 (31:09):
Uh. Any thoughts fantasy wise on going heavy on Jalen
Wattle given all the Tyreek Hill uncertainty. Tyreek Hill is
always cranky. Maybe he gets shipped to a content I
don't I don't know, but yeah.
Speaker 4 (31:20):
But I gotta think Wattle does waddle, He does his
thing in that offense. Whether it is more dependent on
whether Tua is healthy then whether Hill is there or not.
I'm not. I don't feel like Waddle is gonna suddenly
be putting up hill like numbers.
Speaker 2 (31:35):
Uh Jayla, I'm sorry, neighbor, Milik Neighbors.
Speaker 3 (31:39):
Does he concern you given he has no quarterback again
this year?
Speaker 4 (31:42):
No? Man, A lot of these top receivers they eat
whether their quarterback is good or not. It's like the
number twos and number threes that suffer.
Speaker 3 (31:51):
Uh.
Speaker 2 (31:51):
You mentioned your bad You mentioned the Arizona Cardinals earlier
as a bye. I kind of like them as well.
With the schedule continuity. They brought back is Kyler. You're
a sleeper quarterback even all the weapons they have.
Speaker 4 (32:03):
Yeah, man, you want them to use Marvin Harrison a
little better though, Like like yeah, he wasn't very good
on like go routes, Like don't just send him down
the field, like let him move around and root run
and like make cuts and stuff. I think that's a
better way to use him.
Speaker 3 (32:17):
Seattle Seahawks bring in Sam Darnold at quarterback. They lose.
Speaker 2 (32:23):
Netcalf, they lose Lockett. I you know, I'm not saying
Cooper Cup is washed, but he's near the end. MVS
is a one trick Pony is JSN like a deep
sleeper to like lead the league in targets and receptions.
Speaker 4 (32:37):
I don't know if he'll lead the league in targets
and receptions, but he's I think he's You're right, I
mean Cup, we don't know what Cup has left, and
no MVS is nobody's idea of a starter. So I
do think the Jasen is going to have a good year.
Speaker 3 (32:50):
Yeah, I don't love their defense at all. Seattle just
kind of of the coordinator I do.
Speaker 4 (32:56):
You don't know if the players are the right players
to make it all work. Their defense was like tenth
or something last year. We have it regressing, But I'm
definitely willing to like to accept the argument that McDonald
is so good that they're not going to regress, that
they're actually going to get better. But the offense is
just like nothing exciting, Like, you know, the interior offensive
(33:20):
line isn't good and and the running backs are fine,
but they're nothing really that special, and there isn't wide
receiver depth and the offense just doesn't excite me.
Speaker 3 (33:31):
All right, A couple just two more quick ones to
New Orleans Saints. I don't think.
Speaker 2 (33:34):
I don't think there's a more boring irrelevant team in
the league than them. A. Do you know who their
starting quarterback is going to be? And then B or
do you have any of their players draftable in fantasy?
Speaker 4 (33:44):
Tyler Shuck is the starting quarterback for sure, I'm pretty
sure WHOA. Yeah, not Rattler, not really.
Speaker 3 (33:51):
I mean, dude, he was so undistinguished in college. It
was like he played like seven years and was never good.
Speaker 4 (33:57):
He was good in the last year. I guess at Louisville, like,
I mean, you take a guy in the second round
that that's your guy. Kamara is probably still obviously draftable.
A Lave is still, like I said, number one receivers
tend to eat even when the quarterback's bad. Never yel
you know a Lave is healthy and not getting concussions.
I think Olave is still a worthwhile fantasy pick. But
(34:18):
you're right, the Saints are have the least amount of
hope of any team in the league, because at least
with like the Giants and the Panther there's like hope,
maybe Bryce Young takes another step forward, maybe Jackson Dart
is good. There's none of that hope for the Saints,
and when you look at their cap situation for future years.
It makes the hope even disappear more war.
Speaker 2 (34:37):
Yeah, we could wrap up with the Cowboys only because
they seem to be a team divided among the fans,
like are they going to be awful?
Speaker 3 (34:44):
Are they a six win team?
Speaker 1 (34:45):
Eight?
Speaker 2 (34:46):
The defense has some question marks. I think they'll be
chasing points a lot this year, So I actually think
Dak could put up big numbers with Lamb and Pickens.
And I don't love their run game. If Javonte Williams
is your one, you don't have a one. Offensive line's
not great. I think it's gonna be chucking duck for deck.
He could throw for like forty five hundred yards.
Speaker 4 (35:03):
I've heard people who are excited about Jaden Blue, and
I'm like, if you're excited about a fifth round running back,
you're not really excited about your running like that guy
where you're like, hey, fifth round running back, boy, we're
coming after you.
Speaker 1 (35:18):
Right.
Speaker 4 (35:19):
It's not like Janty or something. So I'm with you.
The defense, you don't know exactly how the health is
of the cornerbacks. You don't know how good the edge
rushers are. Other than Michael Parsons. You definitely could be
passing a lot. Remember I mean Dak Prescott finished second
second in the MVP race two years ago.
Speaker 2 (35:38):
Yeah, there's no reason he can't put up big numbers.
Speaker 3 (35:41):
I don't think you're gonna win.
Speaker 2 (35:42):
But finally I got to ask my Jets, do you
have them at all anywhere near the playoffs?
Speaker 3 (35:48):
Any by players? Regarding fantasy, I'm.
Speaker 4 (35:51):
Not a fields believer. I think Arrett Wilson will get
his certainly. I like Bryce Hall, although they've talked about
using more of a committee, and I like brayln To
that got good running backs and the tackle right we
have believe in the tackles, the young tackles. But I'm
just not a justin fields guy. I'm just not. I
do think their defense will be better because cornerback play
(36:13):
is really inconsistent and Sauce really fell off last year,
which means he's likely to rebound and be back to
being You know, Sauce was so good the two years
before that that for him to fall off last year.
If you look at him over three years, he still
looks like one of the best cornerbacks in the league,
and he should play a lot better than he did live.
Speaker 3 (36:33):
Do you think a lot of that was solid getting fired.
Speaker 4 (36:36):
I have no idea. I don't know whether how much
is that versus just the natural inconsistency of corners.
Speaker 3 (36:43):
Yeah, good stuff.
Speaker 2 (36:44):
Aaron Shotts, FTN Fantasy Chief Analytics Officer. He is the
DVOA legend to be writing for ESPN gambling stuff this season.
Speaker 4 (36:53):
Still do ESPN stuff, gambling and historical also historical articles
and stuff during the season. People should get the book
for all the stuff that I've been talking about and
all of our projections, all of Jeff Radcliffe's fantasy projections,
is the FTN Football Almanac twenty twenty five. So you
go to Ftnfantasy dot com slash Almanac.
Speaker 2 (37:14):
If you want to get if you want to win fantasy,
you know, if you want to do well and gambling,
you gotta have this stuff, all right.
Speaker 3 (37:18):
Aaron, thanks a lot. I just wish you were a
Jets fan. Man this Patriots love.
Speaker 4 (37:23):
Hey, what can I say? In Massachusetts' home
Host
Jason McIntyre
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