On today’s episode, Jason quickly discusses the short and long-term impact of ESPN’s acquisition of the NFL Network. Later, Clevanalytics founder and professional sports gambler Clev TA swings by to discuss whether the San Francisco 49ers or the Los Angeles Rams is the team to beat in the NFC West, how the Cleveland Browns’ quarterback situation might impact their season-long win total, which team is the class of the AFC, why he’s picking the Green Bay Packers to make the Super Bowl, what makes the Arizona Cardinals a sneaky-good bet this season, and much more!
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:05):
This is Straight Fire with Jason McIntire.
Speaker 2 (00:11):
What is up Straight Fire, fam, It's me Jason McIntyre,
Straight Boyer for Wednesday, August the sixth.
Speaker 3 (00:19):
We got a fan favorite on the pod today. You
guys know him and love him. My main man, Ta
and listen.
Speaker 2 (00:24):
I know everybody's getting geeked about Fantasy Gambling Survivor. We're
gonna do a lot of that this month to get
you ready for NFL. There's I mean, there's really not
a lot of else to talk about. We could talk
about my Yankees, who were in a bit of a
free fall. There is panic in New York.
Speaker 3 (00:40):
The Yankees have lost five straight.
Speaker 2 (00:41):
Aaron Judge is hurt, but I'm asking you to take
a deep breath. There's over forty games left and currently,
as of right now, the Yankees are still in the
wild Card. They're sure Texas and Cleveland are breathing down
their neck and the Royals.
Speaker 3 (00:57):
Are lingering, but the Yanks are gonna be fine.
Speaker 2 (01:00):
You just you know, it is a long season. This
is a marathon, folks. I cannot get worked up about
like struggling Yankees in August. Now there's five losses in
a row, stretches to ten, then you can cat.
Speaker 3 (01:11):
Start to panic. But it's five losses.
Speaker 2 (01:13):
Come on, it's the dog days of August. I thought
that was one of the more interesting stories that I saw. Obviously,
there is plenty happening in the NFL. Schauduer Sanders is
going to start the preseason opener for the Browns. Not
because he's beat out anybody, but a lot of people
are hurt. They just on a fifth quarterback.
Speaker 3 (01:31):
It's a little goofy.
Speaker 2 (01:35):
I'm moderately interested in the ESPN acquiring the NFL network.
Speaker 3 (01:39):
In red zone.
Speaker 2 (01:40):
You guys know, I'm a heavy red zone consumer. I mean,
essentially Sundays for the starting in September, for four months,
I have red Zone on one TV and the local
game on the other, and then I find a feed
for my Jets. So I'm juggling multi but red zone
is not priority. Like I'm assuming you guys are gambling
and you're doing fantasy. You need to have red zone.
(02:01):
It's mandatory. And I know people are like, oh, ESPN's
gonna find a way to screw it up and all
this not It's gonna be fine. This is not splitting
the atom. Hey, here's red zone. ESPN it's yours.
Speaker 3 (02:11):
Just keep it as it is. You don't need to
tinker with it, and it works fine, right, I don't
think you need to.
Speaker 2 (02:16):
No Belgian whistles, no sprucing it up, just leave it
as it is.
Speaker 3 (02:21):
But yeah, otherwise it.
Speaker 2 (02:23):
Things are just slow. That being said, Listen, you guys
know Ta. He puts out a great free product at
Cleveanalytics dot com. I've already bet some of the stuff.
He just posted it last week in.
Speaker 3 (02:35):
Depth as it gets. Guys, this is really good.
Speaker 4 (02:38):
He's good.
Speaker 3 (02:40):
All right, enjoy my main man, Cleve TA.
Speaker 1 (02:46):
You know a guy, Jason likes to think he knows
everything when it comes to sports.
Speaker 4 (02:51):
I know what sports fans.
Speaker 1 (02:52):
Want, but for everything he doesn't. He knows the guy
who does.
Speaker 4 (02:56):
Let's just say, I know a guy who knows the
guy who knows another guy.
Speaker 3 (03:01):
All right, let's welcome him back to the podcast. You
know the main man, Ta.
Speaker 2 (03:08):
Known as clev TA, known as cleve Analytics is his website.
Speaker 3 (03:13):
Listen, he's good.
Speaker 2 (03:14):
He helped me cash an awesome ticket Eagles over the
Chiefs in the Super Bowl, I believe a year ago
at this time, Ta, it's great to have you back, man.
Speaker 3 (03:23):
I owe you a drink next time I see you.
Speaker 4 (03:25):
Well, hey, Jason Good. I appreciate that I probably had
my worst regular season in about a decade last year,
but I also had probably by far the best preseason
predictions and futures. So it was a weird. It's a
dichotomy there. I mean, not only did I pick Eagles
over Chiefs, I had you know, Kevin O'Connell Coach of
(03:45):
the Year. I had a lot of Vikings exposure as
my sleeper team. I think I was on here last
year to talk about that, So you know, positives and
negatives of the season.
Speaker 3 (03:54):
Yeah, Now, listen, lightning does not strike twice. This is
gonna be tough.
Speaker 2 (03:58):
And I have the fortune of having gone through most
of your preview yet. I mean again, I'm going through it,
taking my time and taking notes, but i will just say,
if you hit your NFC team, I'll be absolutely stunned.
But I'm not starting with that team. I want to
start with. So you put your division predictions on your preview,
(04:18):
which is free for everyone if they go to your Twitter. Okay, Ta,
I'm stunned how low you are on the San Francisco
forty nine ers. Obviously you like another team in that division,
and everybody likes the Rams. Well let's start with the
Niners because they have, by what so many are calling,
the easiest schedule in the league.
Speaker 4 (04:40):
Well, I mean, I do have them in the playoffs.
I have them, I think nine to eight. I'm right
at that cutoff. It wouldn't surprise me if the won
ten eleven games, and I think they're win totals right
at ten, So that doesn't you know, I don't think
I'm that far off market. I get a little nervous
because I think their defense, while I do like the
edition of Robert Sala back in the mix, you know,
there's a lot of whole on the back end of
(05:00):
that defense. They lose Halfonga at safety, they lose Shavarious
Ward at corner. They don't really have a secondary that
I'm you know, that I have upside with. And then
they lose Drake Greenlaw at linebackers, so you know, they
lose Hard Grave defensive tackle. So they do have holes
back there. So it's not as if they're just gonna
you know, even with that easy schedule. I do think
(05:22):
their offense will be fine assuming everyone stays healthy, but
I think the defense does have some holes. And you know, again,
it wouldn't shock me if they won ten eleven games.
I have them at nine and eight. And I think
I put my prevw together before all this Matthew Stafford news.
If I had to redo it, I probably would you know,
flip those and have the Niners, you know higher, I
(05:42):
mean a game game higher so versus the Rams. But yeah,
interested together a few weeks ago, so it was a
little bit too, you know, without hindsight.
Speaker 2 (05:51):
So I guess you seem to think this Stafford stuff
is legit and and very not good.
Speaker 4 (05:57):
I mean, look, if he was a young quarterback who
you know didn't have back issues in the past, it
wasn't thirty seven years old. Yeah maybe I can you know,
sweep that under the rug. But this is you know,
even if he plays to start the season, and if
they say, yeah, I'll be okay, you know, week one.
From what I've read, I'm not a doctor, but I've
read some you know, some things out there that you
(06:18):
know from sports medicine guys that say, look, this is
gonna be something that probably lingers throughout the year and
there's a high reinjury risk. So even if he can,
you know, even if he does start the season and
everything's okay, you know, one hit and you know he
could be out a week or two or a month.
You know, it's it's one of those where I think
he's gonna consistently I have to get shot up with
my understanding. And you know that's dangerous that you're you're
(06:39):
thirty seven years old. It's not as if you know
he's a spry young guy, and you know that that
adds risk to the profile. So you know, I do
think there's risks there.
Speaker 2 (06:49):
So we're recording this Tuesday afternoon, and the news just
broke that your Cleveland Browns will be starting Shoulder Sanders
in the preseason open. That's a surprise to me since
it seemed like he was third or fourth on the
depth chart. But pickets hurt, Gabriel's hurt. I know you're
deep into the weeds of the Browns. I see all
(07:10):
your tweets about like the secondary and the special teams
and crap your thoughts on shit do or getting to start.
Speaker 4 (07:17):
Yeah, I think that's a combination of Picketts hurt, so
he's not gonna play. Dylan Gabriel is also hurt, so
he's not gonna play, and you know, with Joe Flacco,
I don't think. I think right now he's the presumed starter,
and you know, he's a veteran, he doesn't need to play,
and I think the team is being cautious. They don't
want they don't want to throw him out there too
and risk injury and really be left with nobody. So yeah,
(07:39):
I mean that they signed Tyler Huntley to be the backup.
So I think it's gonna be Shador Sanders for you know,
for much for at least a couple of quarters, and
then you know, Tyler Huntley maybe to to mop things
up in the fourth quarter. I think that this is
the right move, Like you have to see something out
of the rookie, and they treat you know, the Browns
and many other teams treat the you know, the these scrimmages,
(08:01):
more joint practices, much higher than they value preseason games.
They like to put them in specific situations. And so
I don't think there's that much to read into it
other than they just don't have any bodies left and
you know, they don't really care about the preseason as much,
so you know, why not throw him out there and
see what he can do. I don't mind him. Mean,
it's it's definitely gonna make me want to tune in,
(08:23):
so I'd like to see what he can do.
Speaker 2 (08:25):
Are you of the beliefs that the Browns are going
to be the worst team in the league this year?
Speaker 4 (08:29):
So I think from a record perspective, they could. I
don't think they're the worst team. I think there's too
much talent on defense. This is the top to me,
is the top twelve to fifteen defense. They got plenty
of talent. The offensive line is solid. You know, they've
got Jerry, Judy, David and Joku like they actually have
some guys. It's just the quarterback situation is such a
(08:49):
mess and they have no run game right now to
speak of without Chubb and you know he's gone, and
you know the Judkins situation, and it's honestly, it's the schedule,
Like the especially the first half of the year is
absolutely brutal. Like they're gonna be huge underdogs for you know,
pretty much every game in the first six seven weeks.
So you know, that's that's what's making you know, making
(09:11):
things difficult. And you know, honestly, once this team is
completely out of it and they start throwing in the
rookies to start. They're gonna probably you know, start week
six seven, and that timeframe was my guess, and maybe
they play both for a handful of games. I'm not sure.
Like once you get to the you know, week twelve thirteen,
this team is going to be, you know, racing towards
the bottom. And yeah, they're going to probably try to
(09:32):
put guys out there that aren't gonna help them win. So,
you know, if you're looking at the win total, I
don't think they're the worst team, you know, from a
talent perspective and from a coaching perspective. It's just the
schedule is so brutal, especially early, and the fact that
there's going to be incentive to tank towards the end
of the year. So that that's what would make me
think that they're you know, probably among the bottom three.
Speaker 2 (09:51):
So that's that's the weird part. So Stefanski, I think
everybody agrees, excellent coach. But what happens if they win
like three or four games and I know the would
pick an arch Manny, do you think Stefanski would return?
Speaker 4 (10:04):
Do you?
Speaker 2 (10:04):
I mean, does the front office love him, the owner
step in, does arch Manning have a say, I mean,
that's getting crazy.
Speaker 4 (10:10):
I mean, look, the guy's won Coach of the Year twice,
so he clearly has some some equity built up. I
think Jimmy Haslan, the owner, came out last week, he
had a press conference, and he, you know, said he
wants to see the young guys. That's it's very important
to see the quarterbacks, the young quarterbacks and see if
they have something there. I think as long as you know,
they show some progress, I think, you know, as long
(10:31):
as they're not getting you know, losing by thirty points
every game and it's just a complete embarrassment. I do
think that, you know, he has a shot to stay.
I'm not sure about Andrew Berry the GM. You know,
he's highly regarded in the league, even though he hasn't
drafted well. And you know, the team is struggling right
now after the Shawn Watson trade. You know, they have
made the playoffs a couple of times. It's not like
this team has been a complete zero for the last
(10:52):
five six years. You know, they have had some success,
So you know, that's it's a question mark. Honestly, it's
hard to imagine, but I do think both have enough
equity that as long as you know they're in line
with the GM or with the owner, I do think
that you know, at least one of them has a
chance to stay.
Speaker 2 (11:11):
It's interesting because when you look at you say he
hasn't drafted, well, I instantly call up the draft history.
A lot of the draft capital went into the Watson deal,
which by all accounts the owner wanted. But you're right,
even guys, I mean, they haven't had a first This
is their first first round pick in years since Greg
Newsom in twenty one. Newsome kind of a bust. Yeah,
(11:32):
I think this is almost as bad of a team
as the Saints.
Speaker 4 (11:35):
Probably right. I mean if you if you switched spots
and had the Browns playing in the NFC South and
you had the Saints in the AFC North, I don't
think the Saints honestly could win two games, three games
with that, that's fair. I do think the Browns, you know,
the Browns played you know, Carolina at home. It is
probably you know, close to a pick on. It's not
like they're a big underdollars like, I do think that
(11:56):
the schedules do matter. The Browns that have a top
one of the five toughest schedules, and it's in the
front end. It's the toughest schedule in the league. And
I wrote about it in my preview. I'm not sure
if you got to that part yet, but I hit
on a couple scheduling spots that, you know, something to circle.
You know, they're when they go to Detroit, I think
is a week four. They go on the road to Detroit,
(12:17):
obviously really tough team to play, a team that will
beat you up. Then they got to travel directly from
Detroit and fly overseas to London and play a good
Minnesota team who a Minnesota team that would be on
the back back to the back of European trips, so
their bodies is going to be adjusted. And we've seen
the Jags the last couple of years play well on
that second leg and have a big advantage, so that's
(12:39):
a tough spot. Then they immediately fly home, no buy,
and they go to Pittsburgh, who's coming off of a
bye themselves. It's the first time in my database, and
I could be wrong and someone could correct me. No
one has yet the first time that I believe a
team will be you know, coming off of a London
trip I uh, you know, no buy and playing another
team with a buy. It's the first time I can
(13:01):
I can find it in my database. So you know,
that is as brutal wal stretch as you're You're going
to get three tough teams and then it's all, you know,
essentially three straight weeks of traveling, you know, with a
London trip in between. So it's just such a hard spot.
I just think it's more about the schedule, the division
than it is just pure you know, talent and the roster,
(13:21):
because I don't think it's as bad as those Saints,
but you know, it's tough. I think the Jets honestly
could be the Jets and Giants are worse than both.
Speaker 1 (13:29):
That's great.
Speaker 3 (13:30):
Give me Arts Manning. I'll take him at a heartbeat
that minute.
Speaker 2 (13:32):
Cleveland at Minnesota, well, Cleveland versus Minnesota in London, I'm
sure the Vikings are going to start out pretty good.
I'm guessing that the spread there is going to be
seven and a half or higher. I don't even know
who's gonna be starting for your Browns, my guess.
Speaker 4 (13:45):
So if you would have told, if you would have
asked me a week or two ago before the picket
and injury. I would have thought Kenny Pickett. I would
have put my money on Picket. And the reason is
most would say Flaco. They know who Joe Flacco is.
He's forty years old. There's zero upside. They signed him
for for peanut, Yeah, and they signed him late in
the process. They traded a fifth round pick for Kenny Pickett,
like they actually like him, and I think people will laugh.
(14:09):
You know, we've seen the success of these retreads with
good pedigree, you know, high draft pedigree likes you know,
Sam Darnold and Baker Mayfield and even Gino Smith when
he went from the Giants to Seattle a few years ago.
Nobody suspected Gino Smith would turn around his career when he,
you know, in his thirties. After that start, I think
they're like, look, let's just toss a late round pick.
(14:29):
Let's you know, this is a bridge year. He doesn't
turn it over. That's the one thing. You're coming off
a year where he had Jamis Winston, you know, just
a turnover machine and with a good defense. They probably thought, look,
we got a guy who can at least protect the ball,
you know, make smart decisions. He's mobile. I mean two.
Just a couple of years ago, he was leading the
Steelers to the playoffs. I know his a little you know,
(14:51):
smoke and mirrors, but he had a terrible offensive you know,
coordinator in Matt Canada. They I thought that they were
going to let him kind of start the year. See
what they have. Maybe the lucky maybe maybe the five
to ten percent chance of him being a quality NFL starter,
you know, could hit like like some of those retrides.
There's no upside to Flacco, Like what, you're not making
the playoffs, You're there's no future with him. He's you know,
(15:12):
it's forty years old. So what's the point of starting Flacco.
I think they signed him just as an emergency protection
for things like injuries or just complete disaster. So I
want to said Picket. The problem is he got hurt.
Is there enough time for him to recover and start.
I think it's possible, But I think right now it's
it's gonna be either Flacco Picket for six weeks until
they get you know, after that Steelers game that I
(15:34):
talked about, and then I think one of the rookies
will start against Miami the following week.
Speaker 1 (15:39):
Fox Sports Radio has the best sports talk lineup in
the nation. Catch all of our shows at Foxsports Radio
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listen live.
Speaker 2 (15:51):
All right, let's get to the team you are really
high on, and that is the Green Bay Packers, folks.
I was stunned when you know you're AFC team for
the Super Bowl. Not a major surprise of people, but
the NFC team, the Packers, surprised me. Now, your logic
is sound. That division is just so hard, man, I'm
(16:13):
I'm floored. Were you surprise that you landed on the Packers?
Speaker 4 (16:16):
Well, so, I'll be honest, people asked me about my
NFC pick. I think you can go. There's honestly six
seven teams you could pick, and I wouldn't, you know,
bat an eye. I think we've seen it. Like every
year there's a new team that rises up. It's not
like with the Chiefs. It's not like the AC. We
have the Chiefs, Bills and Ravens that are just head
and shoulders above everybody else. And you know, it's one
(16:38):
of those teams. You know, the NFC is kind of
wide open. So I like the Packers. I didn't, I'll
be honest, Going into kind of putting this stuff together
and digging into my research. I didn't expect to land
on the on the Packers, but I think there's a
lot of question marks with everybody else in that division.
I'm not as high. I mean, I love Minnesota. Last
year I told you like I swim from the rooftops.
(17:00):
You know, there's question marks there with JJ McCarthy and
you know, much tougher schedule, and now teams are going
to be ready for the for Minnesota versus last year.
You got the Bearers, who I'm really low on. I
don't I don't understand why. I know, Ben Johnson, I
don't think they did enough to really make that a
playoff level team. They got really one of the toughest
schedules in the NFL. And then the Lions, I think
(17:21):
we're going to take a step back. They're still going
to be good, but they don't play as many games
in the Dome like they did last year. And then
obviously we know between the coordinators in the offensive line issues.
So the Packers to me, don't have many weaknesses like
you can't sit here in point to like oh glaring
holes on this roster. They have a solid roster. They
added back you Golden at receiver. You know, they didn't
(17:43):
have a receiver step up last year to be their
number one. But I think Golden has a chance to
really be, you know, that outside weapon that they were
missing with Watson, who's been hurt a lot the last
couple of years. You know, they got a really good
run game in Josh Jacobs. They've got one of the
better offensive lines in the league, tight ends, really good
coaching staff. We know Matt Laflora can take anybody at quarterback.
(18:04):
We saw that in the Lake Lellis last year and
win games. And so when when I dug into Jordan Love,
because I think that's going to be your follow up.
You know, from the surface level, you would have thought, oh,
you know, his numbers were down from the year ago.
He wasn't the same guy as he was two years ago.
Everybody hyped him up to be the next Pie Things.
You know, when I dug into the numbers, he faced
the single toughest schedule of opposing pass defenses in the
(18:27):
NFL last year. Okay, a really tough schedule. He had
got hurt in that opener against the Eagles right in Brazil.
He was at the hamstring and then he hurt his
knee later in the year, so he had multiple injuries.
He was dealing with. His receivers did him no favors.
Not only was Watson hurt a lot, but they dropped
balls at the fifth highest rate in the NFL for
(18:49):
you know, drop percentage, you know, So he had a
lot of things go against him, and he still had
a pretty good year. And I, you know, I look
at you know, I look at EPA, which is one
of those advanced metrics that you know, start the game
ground in kind of mainstream media in terms of how
did how do quarterbacks perform against their schedule? Now I
don't just look at raw numbers. I look at, you know, comparatively,
(19:10):
So how did Jordan Love do against the defenses that
he faced? And again I said, it was the toughest
set of defenses in the NFL versus all of the
quarterbacks against those same same defenses. And I do that
with every single quarterback in the league to kind of
get an apples to apples comparison. He's the only quarterback
that did not generate a bottom thirtieth percentile performance in
(19:32):
any single game against an opposing defense, meaning like he was.
He had a high floor in all of those games,
Like he never was a disaster. And if he had
a poor performance, it's against you know, one of the
better defenses in the NFL, who also made a lot
of other quarterbacks look poor. So you know, he had
a really high floor. I thought his consistency with solid.
(19:52):
He had a really nice stretch to end the year.
He was print playing pretty well. And I just think
between you know, a couple of those nagging injuries, you know,
the receivers not doing any favors, and then you know,
facing a tough schedule, and he did have a couple
of really tough weather games too, if I remember, you know,
he played in uh in that driving rainstorm against the
Lions at home, you know, and he was coming off
(20:12):
of an injury on that one he faced Miami, and
when it was freezing cold on Thanksgiving night against San
Francisco when it was really uh, you know, bad weather.
So it's not like he had perfect conditions. So all
in all, long story short, I think he's got good coaching,
he's got good weapons, gets everybody back, adds Matthew Golden,
And I think that the hopefully I mean I doubt
he's going to face the toughest schedule of defense pass
(20:35):
defenses again this year. So you know, anyway, like I said,
I think you could drop five, six, seven names and
a hat from a from an NFC standpoint and be
okay with that pick. And to me, it's just, you know,
kind of spun the wheel and I landed on the Packers.
Speaker 3 (20:47):
For me, Now another team you like NFC.
Speaker 2 (20:49):
You have Falcons over the Bucks, good bet for their
win total over possibly division all that stuff. I have
liked the Falcons a lot, but I'm seeing like real
ex from you regarding Pennix and Drake London.
Speaker 3 (21:03):
We got a lot of fantasy listeners.
Speaker 2 (21:04):
It sounds like those are two potential major targets you
should have as opposed to say Stafford.
Speaker 4 (21:10):
Yeah, and again similar to Green Bay, I did not
expect to really be high on Atlanta when I started this,
And this is what you know, really this exercise helps
me focus in on what actually happened last year, and
when you dig into the numbers, you know, I knew
the Falcons offense was pretty good all season. They were
they were. They had the lowest three and out rate
(21:30):
among all teams in the NFL on offense, like they didn't.
There were no easy outs when you face the Atlanta
like they were consistently getting first downs. They were, you know,
from a success rate standpoint, one of the top five
or six offenses in the NFL. What really hurt them
were turnovers, and we all saw Kirk Cousins just completely
collapse for that stretch, you know, probably the last five
(21:52):
or six games of you know, his season last year.
He totally you know, sabotaged that offense to the point
where he, I mean they led the NFL with the
most turnovers in the second half of close games, Like
he had seven interceptions in the second half of games.
Like he was just a in the fourth quarter of games. Sorry,
I mean he was a complete zero. And he cost
(22:14):
them a lot of close games. And so to me,
it's like, Okay, now I get a guy in Michael Penix,
who honestly I wasn't that high on coming into the
draft when they took him, but you know, he clearly
has a much better arm than Cousins. He pushes the
ball down the field, so you get those explosive plays
that you don't necessarily get with Cousins. He is more
mobile obviously than Kirk Cousins. You know, we saw only
(22:35):
three games at the end of last year. If you
look at PFF, they've got what they call their big
time throw rate, which means like, you know, specific throws
down the field that you know, they consider a quote
unquote big time. He led the NFL in those big
time throws. So to me, it's like, okay. And they
also were really good in between, you know, from the
twenty to you know, twenty to twenty. Inside the red zone,
(22:58):
they failed, you know, higher rate than than what you'd
expect for a team with this sort of offensive you know,
these offensive metrics. So between high leverage spots, Layton games
and in the red zone, Kirk Cousins really failed them.
And so I think if you just you know, fix
some of the turnover issues, you get some regression there
(23:18):
and you get some more you get more explosive plays
down the field. With Pennix, that offense could be top
five to six in the league. They play twelve Dome
games and their schedule is you know, pretty pretty easy.
Like I don't think Tampa's got a good defense at all.
They didn't make any improvements. Carolina's maybe the worst defense
in the NFL. You know, the Saints are not or
not a good defensive team like that. That's six games
(23:40):
right there against you know, some pretty poor pass defenses,
and you know, I just think that the offense can
really really drive this team to the playoffs. And then
you look at the defense. Everyone's gonna point in the defense, like, yeah,
they weren't great last year. They were much worse on
high leverage third down situations. They could not get a
pass rush. They were bottom two in sack rate and
(24:00):
a pressure rate on third downs. They could not get
off the field every other down. They were fine on
early downs. They were top twenty in the NFL. Like,
they were fine if they can just get a pass rush,
and they threw multiple resources at their pass rush to
improve it. You know, they signed Leonard Floyd, who's you know,
he's not an elite pass rusher anymore, but he can
get you seven eight sacks. He's a veteran good rotation guy.
(24:22):
And they drafted those two guys in the first round,
James Pearson Walker out of Georgia. Like, they have real
options at the edge position. If one of those rookies
hit and you get Leonard Floyd in there, like, yeah,
they can get a few stops that they didn't get
last year, and they don't have to be an elite defense.
I'm just looking for give me a top you know,
sixteen to twenty defense to go with this offense of
(24:45):
the potential with Drake London and be John Robinson and
Darnell Mooney, et cetera. You know, I think that they've
got a shot to win the division and sneak up
on teams and you know, maybe win eleven twelve games.
Speaker 1 (24:56):
Fox Sports Radio has the best sports talk lineup in
then catch all of our shows at Foxsports Radio dot
com and within the iHeartRadio app search FSR to listen live.
Speaker 3 (25:09):
You also have Arizona doing the same thing.
Speaker 2 (25:11):
Now, obviously you've been on this pod before hyping Jonathan
Gannon from way back when he was hired.
Speaker 3 (25:17):
He's an Ohio guy.
Speaker 2 (25:19):
I am curious that division. You know, Niners easy schedule,
rams are I mean, I think I don't know if
you heard Turnoff was on here maybe two months ago
saying he's got rams bill super Bowl. It feels like
the Cardinals winning ten games, Gannon Coach of the Year.
That seems like something nobody's gonna have yet this is
what you got.
Speaker 4 (25:39):
Yeah, I like, I mean Arizona. To me, it was
not highing them last year. They had a really tough
schedule going in. I just didn't think they did anything
on defense, that they had no talent on defense outside
of Buddha Baker, and they coached them up. They did
a really good job of scheming things. If you if you,
you know, talk to some of the film nuts out there,
the nerds that really dive into these things, Like some
(26:00):
of the stuff they were doing on defense with the
exotic blitzes and the disguises were really next level. They
were kind of Brian Flora's esque. And you know, they
took no talent on defense and you know kept them
in a lot of games. They won eight games, like
with no talent on defense or offense, was solid top
twelve unit and they bring everybody back. And that was
with Marvin Harrison, by the way, really struggling as a rookie.
(26:22):
Like they did not have a connection with Kyler Murray.
So you've got that off side. Okay, what if finally,
you know, Marvin Harrison figures it out with Kyler Murray
and he adds that extra element they bring everybody else back,
they should be fine on that side of the ball.
And defensively, you know, they added like five six starters.
You know, Walter Nolan who they drafted, Kalais Campbell, who's
still you know, some of his PF you look at
(26:43):
some of his PFF grade is really solid at defensive tackle,
Dalvin Tomlinson solid defensive tackle. You know, they signed Josh
Sweat as their big edge addition. They you know, they
traded for Baron Browning at the deadline last year, who
was a really solid pressure guy for Denver. They get
back Ojali bj Ojali from LSU who had a nice
(27:04):
rookie season and got you know, I think he tore
his name before the season last year. So you know,
they have some really solid guys in that pass rush.
It's like a bunch of dudes. And they've coach up
that secondary pretty good. I think they've got the makings
of a top fifteen defensive unit. And their schedule last
year they faced they were the one of the only
teams to face both the top ten toughest offensive and
(27:27):
defensive schedule by EPA in the NFL. I think the
Niners of the other team, So they did a lot.
I mean they won eight games against all really tough
schedules against some really good teams, and you know, I
do think that there's some upside here. And I just
think for me, you know, from with a division standpoint,
like you know, they're pretty solid, solid bet and now
with the Rams kind of fall potentially falling off with
(27:49):
if Stafford does have you know, a real injury, they
can leap up there. And you know, for for me,
for coach of the year, like Gannon checks all the
boxes and if they go from eight to eleven wins,
maybe well, like he's gonna have a real shot here
at twenty to one or higher to win, not coach
of the year.
Speaker 2 (28:05):
Well, I love when you plant your flag on I
was doing I tried to do with Minnesota this offseason.
Then I read your recap and again, these are things
you don't see everywhere regarding Minnesota.
Speaker 3 (28:16):
Nine and one in one score games.
Speaker 2 (28:18):
You know, a couple other notes that turnovers, turnovers on defense. Yeah,
so like I've started to back off Minnesota and I'm
looking but listen, that's all we do this month, right,
You've got the preseason games you dig in h TA
as usual, great stuff obviously, the audience should be downloading
in your packet and getting on your site for the
(28:39):
gambling tidbits. By the way, it seems like the gambling
space is starting to thin out a little bit.
Speaker 3 (28:45):
You're not going anywhere, right.
Speaker 1 (28:47):
You know, So I no, I don't.
Speaker 4 (28:49):
You know, I'm not a pro. Better I bet the NFL,
like like, I'm a pro, but everything else I'm not
a pro. I have a day job. But you know,
my site is more I call it content basics. You know,
there's so many the average oh doesn't just beat on games.
They played the FS. They've got fantasy football, they do pools, right,
So like I try to write up as many games
as I can give, you know, match up angles, you know,
(29:10):
trend trend lines, patterns, stats, injury reports, all those sorts
of things that you can take as as a content
you know, as a customer, and then you can do
whatever you want with that information. You can use it
for all different platforms. So to me, I'm kind of
I'm still going to be doing all those things and
I'm not going away from that perspective. So hopefully people
get value when they go to the site. But yeah,
(29:32):
the guys who are the probatters, you know, are dealing
with these these new gambling laws that were in the
big bill that are really going to hurt them. So
you know, that's uh, that's that's a situation that you know,
hopefully they get reverse. But yeah, for me from a
content side, uh yeah, I'm not going away.
Speaker 3 (29:49):
We need that content all right.
Speaker 2 (29:50):
TA great stuff, And now we'll certainly talk to you
probably early September when you're ten to zero in the
contest and I'm nine to one chasing use have it
sounds good.
Speaker 4 (29:59):
I appreciate it.
This is Straight Fire with Jason McIntire.
Speaker 2 (00:11):
What is up Straight Fire, fam, It's me Jason McIntyre,
Straight Boyer for Wednesday, August the sixth.
Speaker 3 (00:19):
We got a fan favorite on the pod today. You
guys know him and love him. My main man, Ta
and listen.
Speaker 2 (00:24):
I know everybody's getting geeked about Fantasy Gambling Survivor. We're
gonna do a lot of that this month to get
you ready for NFL. There's I mean, there's really not
a lot of else to talk about. We could talk
about my Yankees, who were in a bit of a
free fall. There is panic in New York.
Speaker 3 (00:40):
The Yankees have lost five straight.
Speaker 2 (00:41):
Aaron Judge is hurt, but I'm asking you to take
a deep breath. There's over forty games left and currently,
as of right now, the Yankees are still in the
wild Card. They're sure Texas and Cleveland are breathing down
their neck and the Royals.
Speaker 3 (00:57):
Are lingering, but the Yanks are gonna be fine.
Speaker 2 (01:00):
You just you know, it is a long season. This
is a marathon, folks. I cannot get worked up about
like struggling Yankees in August. Now there's five losses in
a row, stretches to ten, then you can cat.
Speaker 3 (01:11):
Start to panic. But it's five losses.
Speaker 2 (01:13):
Come on, it's the dog days of August. I thought
that was one of the more interesting stories that I saw. Obviously,
there is plenty happening in the NFL. Schauduer Sanders is
going to start the preseason opener for the Browns. Not
because he's beat out anybody, but a lot of people
are hurt. They just on a fifth quarterback.
Speaker 3 (01:31):
It's a little goofy.
Speaker 2 (01:35):
I'm moderately interested in the ESPN acquiring the NFL network.
Speaker 3 (01:39):
In red zone.
Speaker 2 (01:40):
You guys know, I'm a heavy red zone consumer. I mean,
essentially Sundays for the starting in September, for four months,
I have red Zone on one TV and the local
game on the other, and then I find a feed
for my Jets. So I'm juggling multi but red zone
is not priority. Like I'm assuming you guys are gambling
and you're doing fantasy. You need to have red zone.
(02:01):
It's mandatory. And I know people are like, oh, ESPN's
gonna find a way to screw it up and all
this not It's gonna be fine. This is not splitting
the atom. Hey, here's red zone. ESPN it's yours.
Speaker 3 (02:11):
Just keep it as it is. You don't need to
tinker with it, and it works fine, right, I don't
think you need to.
Speaker 2 (02:16):
No Belgian whistles, no sprucing it up, just leave it
as it is.
Speaker 3 (02:21):
But yeah, otherwise it.
Speaker 2 (02:23):
Things are just slow. That being said, Listen, you guys
know Ta. He puts out a great free product at
Cleveanalytics dot com. I've already bet some of the stuff.
He just posted it last week in.
Speaker 3 (02:35):
Depth as it gets. Guys, this is really good.
Speaker 4 (02:38):
He's good.
Speaker 3 (02:40):
All right, enjoy my main man, Cleve TA.
Speaker 1 (02:46):
You know a guy, Jason likes to think he knows
everything when it comes to sports.
Speaker 4 (02:51):
I know what sports fans.
Speaker 1 (02:52):
Want, but for everything he doesn't. He knows the guy
who does.
Speaker 4 (02:56):
Let's just say, I know a guy who knows the
guy who knows another guy.
Speaker 3 (03:01):
All right, let's welcome him back to the podcast. You
know the main man, Ta.
Speaker 2 (03:08):
Known as clev TA, known as cleve Analytics is his website.
Speaker 3 (03:13):
Listen, he's good.
Speaker 2 (03:14):
He helped me cash an awesome ticket Eagles over the
Chiefs in the Super Bowl, I believe a year ago
at this time, Ta, it's great to have you back, man.
Speaker 3 (03:23):
I owe you a drink next time I see you.
Speaker 4 (03:25):
Well, hey, Jason Good. I appreciate that I probably had
my worst regular season in about a decade last year,
but I also had probably by far the best preseason
predictions and futures. So it was a weird. It's a
dichotomy there. I mean, not only did I pick Eagles
over Chiefs, I had you know, Kevin O'Connell Coach of
(03:45):
the Year. I had a lot of Vikings exposure as
my sleeper team. I think I was on here last
year to talk about that, So you know, positives and
negatives of the season.
Speaker 3 (03:54):
Yeah, Now, listen, lightning does not strike twice. This is
gonna be tough.
Speaker 2 (03:58):
And I have the fortune of having gone through most
of your preview yet. I mean again, I'm going through it,
taking my time and taking notes, but i will just say,
if you hit your NFC team, I'll be absolutely stunned.
But I'm not starting with that team. I want to
start with. So you put your division predictions on your preview,
(04:18):
which is free for everyone if they go to your Twitter. Okay, Ta,
I'm stunned how low you are on the San Francisco
forty nine ers. Obviously you like another team in that division,
and everybody likes the Rams. Well let's start with the
Niners because they have, by what so many are calling,
the easiest schedule in the league.
Speaker 4 (04:40):
Well, I mean, I do have them in the playoffs.
I have them, I think nine to eight. I'm right
at that cutoff. It wouldn't surprise me if the won
ten eleven games, and I think they're win totals right
at ten, So that doesn't you know, I don't think
I'm that far off market. I get a little nervous
because I think their defense, while I do like the
edition of Robert Sala back in the mix, you know,
there's a lot of whole on the back end of
(05:00):
that defense. They lose Halfonga at safety, they lose Shavarious
Ward at corner. They don't really have a secondary that
I'm you know, that I have upside with. And then
they lose Drake Greenlaw at linebackers, so you know, they
lose Hard Grave defensive tackle. So they do have holes
back there. So it's not as if they're just gonna
you know, even with that easy schedule. I do think
(05:22):
their offense will be fine assuming everyone stays healthy, but
I think the defense does have some holes. And you know, again,
it wouldn't shock me if they won ten eleven games.
I have them at nine and eight. And I think
I put my prevw together before all this Matthew Stafford news.
If I had to redo it, I probably would you know,
flip those and have the Niners, you know higher, I
(05:42):
mean a game game higher so versus the Rams. But yeah,
interested together a few weeks ago, so it was a
little bit too, you know, without hindsight.
Speaker 2 (05:51):
So I guess you seem to think this Stafford stuff
is legit and and very not good.
Speaker 4 (05:57):
I mean, look, if he was a young quarterback who
you know didn't have back issues in the past, it
wasn't thirty seven years old. Yeah maybe I can you know,
sweep that under the rug. But this is you know,
even if he plays to start the season, and if
they say, yeah, I'll be okay, you know, week one.
From what I've read, I'm not a doctor, but I've
read some you know, some things out there that you
(06:18):
know from sports medicine guys that say, look, this is
gonna be something that probably lingers throughout the year and
there's a high reinjury risk. So even if he can,
you know, even if he does start the season and
everything's okay, you know, one hit and you know he
could be out a week or two or a month.
You know, it's it's one of those where I think
he's gonna consistently I have to get shot up with
my understanding. And you know that's dangerous that you're you're
(06:39):
thirty seven years old. It's not as if you know
he's a spry young guy, and you know that that
adds risk to the profile. So you know, I do
think there's risks there.
Speaker 2 (06:49):
So we're recording this Tuesday afternoon, and the news just
broke that your Cleveland Browns will be starting Shoulder Sanders
in the preseason open. That's a surprise to me since
it seemed like he was third or fourth on the
depth chart. But pickets hurt, Gabriel's hurt. I know you're
deep into the weeds of the Browns. I see all
(07:10):
your tweets about like the secondary and the special teams
and crap your thoughts on shit do or getting to start.
Speaker 4 (07:17):
Yeah, I think that's a combination of Picketts hurt, so
he's not gonna play. Dylan Gabriel is also hurt, so
he's not gonna play, and you know, with Joe Flacco,
I don't think. I think right now he's the presumed starter,
and you know, he's a veteran, he doesn't need to play,
and I think the team is being cautious. They don't
want they don't want to throw him out there too
and risk injury and really be left with nobody. So yeah,
(07:39):
I mean that they signed Tyler Huntley to be the backup.
So I think it's gonna be Shador Sanders for you know,
for much for at least a couple of quarters, and
then you know, Tyler Huntley maybe to to mop things
up in the fourth quarter. I think that this is
the right move, Like you have to see something out
of the rookie, and they treat you know, the Browns
and many other teams treat the you know, the these scrimmages,
(08:01):
more joint practices, much higher than they value preseason games.
They like to put them in specific situations. And so
I don't think there's that much to read into it
other than they just don't have any bodies left and
you know, they don't really care about the preseason as much,
so you know, why not throw him out there and
see what he can do. I don't mind him. Mean,
it's it's definitely gonna make me want to tune in,
(08:23):
so I'd like to see what he can do.
Speaker 2 (08:25):
Are you of the beliefs that the Browns are going
to be the worst team in the league this year?
Speaker 4 (08:29):
So I think from a record perspective, they could. I
don't think they're the worst team. I think there's too
much talent on defense. This is the top to me,
is the top twelve to fifteen defense. They got plenty
of talent. The offensive line is solid. You know, they've
got Jerry, Judy, David and Joku like they actually have
some guys. It's just the quarterback situation is such a
(08:49):
mess and they have no run game right now to
speak of without Chubb and you know he's gone, and
you know the Judkins situation, and it's honestly, it's the schedule,
Like the especially the first half of the year is
absolutely brutal. Like they're gonna be huge underdogs for you know,
pretty much every game in the first six seven weeks.
So you know, that's that's what's making you know, making
(09:11):
things difficult. And you know, honestly, once this team is
completely out of it and they start throwing in the
rookies to start. They're gonna probably you know, start week
six seven, and that timeframe was my guess, and maybe
they play both for a handful of games. I'm not sure.
Like once you get to the you know, week twelve thirteen,
this team is going to be, you know, racing towards
the bottom. And yeah, they're going to probably try to
(09:32):
put guys out there that aren't gonna help them win. So,
you know, if you're looking at the win total, I
don't think they're the worst team, you know, from a
talent perspective and from a coaching perspective. It's just the
schedule is so brutal, especially early, and the fact that
there's going to be incentive to tank towards the end
of the year. So that that's what would make me
think that they're you know, probably among the bottom three.
Speaker 2 (09:51):
So that's that's the weird part. So Stefanski, I think
everybody agrees, excellent coach. But what happens if they win
like three or four games and I know the would
pick an arch Manny, do you think Stefanski would return?
Speaker 4 (10:04):
Do you?
Speaker 2 (10:04):
I mean, does the front office love him, the owner
step in, does arch Manning have a say, I mean,
that's getting crazy.
Speaker 4 (10:10):
I mean, look, the guy's won Coach of the Year twice,
so he clearly has some some equity built up. I
think Jimmy Haslan, the owner, came out last week, he
had a press conference, and he, you know, said he
wants to see the young guys. That's it's very important
to see the quarterbacks, the young quarterbacks and see if
they have something there. I think as long as you know,
they show some progress, I think, you know, as long
(10:31):
as they're not getting you know, losing by thirty points
every game and it's just a complete embarrassment. I do
think that, you know, he has a shot to stay.
I'm not sure about Andrew Berry the GM. You know,
he's highly regarded in the league, even though he hasn't
drafted well. And you know, the team is struggling right
now after the Shawn Watson trade. You know, they have
made the playoffs a couple of times. It's not like
this team has been a complete zero for the last
(10:52):
five six years. You know, they have had some success,
So you know, that's it's a question mark. Honestly, it's
hard to imagine, but I do think both have enough
equity that as long as you know they're in line
with the GM or with the owner, I do think
that you know, at least one of them has a
chance to stay.
Speaker 2 (11:11):
It's interesting because when you look at you say he
hasn't drafted, well, I instantly call up the draft history.
A lot of the draft capital went into the Watson deal,
which by all accounts the owner wanted. But you're right,
even guys, I mean, they haven't had a first This
is their first first round pick in years since Greg
Newsom in twenty one. Newsome kind of a bust. Yeah,
(11:32):
I think this is almost as bad of a team
as the Saints.
Speaker 4 (11:35):
Probably right. I mean if you if you switched spots
and had the Browns playing in the NFC South and
you had the Saints in the AFC North, I don't
think the Saints honestly could win two games, three games
with that, that's fair. I do think the Browns, you know,
the Browns played you know, Carolina at home. It is
probably you know, close to a pick on. It's not
like they're a big underdollars like, I do think that
(11:56):
the schedules do matter. The Browns that have a top
one of the five toughest schedules, and it's in the
front end. It's the toughest schedule in the league. And
I wrote about it in my preview. I'm not sure
if you got to that part yet, but I hit
on a couple scheduling spots that, you know, something to circle.
You know, they're when they go to Detroit, I think
is a week four. They go on the road to Detroit,
(12:17):
obviously really tough team to play, a team that will
beat you up. Then they got to travel directly from
Detroit and fly overseas to London and play a good
Minnesota team who a Minnesota team that would be on
the back back to the back of European trips, so
their bodies is going to be adjusted. And we've seen
the Jags the last couple of years play well on
that second leg and have a big advantage, so that's
(12:39):
a tough spot. Then they immediately fly home, no buy,
and they go to Pittsburgh, who's coming off of a
bye themselves. It's the first time in my database, and
I could be wrong and someone could correct me. No
one has yet the first time that I believe a
team will be you know, coming off of a London
trip I uh, you know, no buy and playing another
team with a buy. It's the first time I can
(13:01):
I can find it in my database. So you know,
that is as brutal wal stretch as you're You're going
to get three tough teams and then it's all, you know,
essentially three straight weeks of traveling, you know, with a
London trip in between. So it's just such a hard spot.
I just think it's more about the schedule, the division
than it is just pure you know, talent and the roster,
(13:21):
because I don't think it's as bad as those Saints,
but you know, it's tough. I think the Jets honestly
could be the Jets and Giants are worse than both.
Speaker 1 (13:29):
That's great.
Speaker 3 (13:30):
Give me Arts Manning. I'll take him at a heartbeat
that minute.
Speaker 2 (13:32):
Cleveland at Minnesota, well, Cleveland versus Minnesota in London, I'm
sure the Vikings are going to start out pretty good.
I'm guessing that the spread there is going to be
seven and a half or higher. I don't even know
who's gonna be starting for your Browns, my guess.
Speaker 4 (13:45):
So if you would have told, if you would have
asked me a week or two ago before the picket
and injury. I would have thought Kenny Pickett. I would
have put my money on Picket. And the reason is
most would say Flaco. They know who Joe Flacco is.
He's forty years old. There's zero upside. They signed him
for for peanut, Yeah, and they signed him late in
the process. They traded a fifth round pick for Kenny Pickett,
like they actually like him, and I think people will laugh.
(14:09):
You know, we've seen the success of these retreads with
good pedigree, you know, high draft pedigree likes you know,
Sam Darnold and Baker Mayfield and even Gino Smith when
he went from the Giants to Seattle a few years ago.
Nobody suspected Gino Smith would turn around his career when he,
you know, in his thirties. After that start, I think
they're like, look, let's just toss a late round pick.
(14:29):
Let's you know, this is a bridge year. He doesn't
turn it over. That's the one thing. You're coming off
a year where he had Jamis Winston, you know, just
a turnover machine and with a good defense. They probably thought, look,
we got a guy who can at least protect the ball,
you know, make smart decisions. He's mobile. I mean two.
Just a couple of years ago, he was leading the
Steelers to the playoffs. I know his a little you know,
(14:51):
smoke and mirrors, but he had a terrible offensive you know,
coordinator in Matt Canada. They I thought that they were
going to let him kind of start the year. See
what they have. Maybe the lucky maybe maybe the five
to ten percent chance of him being a quality NFL starter,
you know, could hit like like some of those retrides.
There's no upside to Flacco, Like what, you're not making
the playoffs, You're there's no future with him. He's you know,
(15:12):
it's forty years old. So what's the point of starting Flacco.
I think they signed him just as an emergency protection
for things like injuries or just complete disaster. So I
want to said Picket. The problem is he got hurt.
Is there enough time for him to recover and start.
I think it's possible, But I think right now it's
it's gonna be either Flacco Picket for six weeks until
they get you know, after that Steelers game that I
(15:34):
talked about, and then I think one of the rookies
will start against Miami the following week.
Speaker 1 (15:39):
Fox Sports Radio has the best sports talk lineup in
the nation. Catch all of our shows at Foxsports Radio
dot com and within the iHeartRadio app. Search FSR to
listen live.
Speaker 2 (15:51):
All right, let's get to the team you are really
high on, and that is the Green Bay Packers, folks.
I was stunned when you know you're AFC team for
the Super Bowl. Not a major surprise of people, but
the NFC team, the Packers, surprised me. Now, your logic
is sound. That division is just so hard, man, I'm
(16:13):
I'm floored. Were you surprise that you landed on the Packers?
Speaker 4 (16:16):
Well, so, I'll be honest, people asked me about my
NFC pick. I think you can go. There's honestly six
seven teams you could pick, and I wouldn't, you know,
bat an eye. I think we've seen it. Like every
year there's a new team that rises up. It's not
like with the Chiefs. It's not like the AC. We
have the Chiefs, Bills and Ravens that are just head
and shoulders above everybody else. And you know, it's one
(16:38):
of those teams. You know, the NFC is kind of
wide open. So I like the Packers. I didn't, I'll
be honest, Going into kind of putting this stuff together
and digging into my research. I didn't expect to land
on the on the Packers, but I think there's a
lot of question marks with everybody else in that division.
I'm not as high. I mean, I love Minnesota. Last
year I told you like I swim from the rooftops.
(17:00):
You know, there's question marks there with JJ McCarthy and
you know, much tougher schedule, and now teams are going
to be ready for the for Minnesota versus last year.
You got the Bearers, who I'm really low on. I
don't I don't understand why. I know, Ben Johnson, I
don't think they did enough to really make that a
playoff level team. They got really one of the toughest
schedules in the NFL. And then the Lions, I think
(17:21):
we're going to take a step back. They're still going
to be good, but they don't play as many games
in the Dome like they did last year. And then
obviously we know between the coordinators in the offensive line issues.
So the Packers to me, don't have many weaknesses like
you can't sit here in point to like oh glaring
holes on this roster. They have a solid roster. They
added back you Golden at receiver. You know, they didn't
(17:43):
have a receiver step up last year to be their
number one. But I think Golden has a chance to
really be, you know, that outside weapon that they were
missing with Watson, who's been hurt a lot the last
couple of years. You know, they got a really good
run game in Josh Jacobs. They've got one of the
better offensive lines in the league, tight ends, really good
coaching staff. We know Matt Laflora can take anybody at quarterback.
(18:04):
We saw that in the Lake Lellis last year and
win games. And so when when I dug into Jordan Love,
because I think that's going to be your follow up.
You know, from the surface level, you would have thought, oh,
you know, his numbers were down from the year ago.
He wasn't the same guy as he was two years ago.
Everybody hyped him up to be the next Pie Things.
You know, when I dug into the numbers, he faced
the single toughest schedule of opposing pass defenses in the
(18:27):
NFL last year. Okay, a really tough schedule. He had
got hurt in that opener against the Eagles right in Brazil.
He was at the hamstring and then he hurt his
knee later in the year, so he had multiple injuries.
He was dealing with. His receivers did him no favors.
Not only was Watson hurt a lot, but they dropped
balls at the fifth highest rate in the NFL for
(18:49):
you know, drop percentage, you know, So he had a
lot of things go against him, and he still had
a pretty good year. And I, you know, I look
at you know, I look at EPA, which is one
of those advanced metrics that you know, start the game
ground in kind of mainstream media in terms of how
did how do quarterbacks perform against their schedule? Now I
don't just look at raw numbers. I look at, you know, comparatively,
(19:10):
So how did Jordan Love do against the defenses that
he faced? And again I said, it was the toughest
set of defenses in the NFL versus all of the
quarterbacks against those same same defenses. And I do that
with every single quarterback in the league to kind of
get an apples to apples comparison. He's the only quarterback
that did not generate a bottom thirtieth percentile performance in
(19:32):
any single game against an opposing defense, meaning like he was.
He had a high floor in all of those games,
Like he never was a disaster. And if he had
a poor performance, it's against you know, one of the
better defenses in the NFL, who also made a lot
of other quarterbacks look poor. So you know, he had
a really high floor. I thought his consistency with solid.
(19:52):
He had a really nice stretch to end the year.
He was print playing pretty well. And I just think
between you know, a couple of those nagging injuries, you know,
the receivers not doing any favors, and then you know,
facing a tough schedule, and he did have a couple
of really tough weather games too, if I remember, you know,
he played in uh in that driving rainstorm against the
Lions at home, you know, and he was coming off
(20:12):
of an injury on that one he faced Miami, and
when it was freezing cold on Thanksgiving night against San
Francisco when it was really uh, you know, bad weather.
So it's not like he had perfect conditions. So all
in all, long story short, I think he's got good coaching,
he's got good weapons, gets everybody back, adds Matthew Golden,
And I think that the hopefully I mean I doubt
he's going to face the toughest schedule of defense pass
(20:35):
defenses again this year. So you know, anyway, like I said,
I think you could drop five, six, seven names and
a hat from a from an NFC standpoint and be
okay with that pick. And to me, it's just, you know,
kind of spun the wheel and I landed on the Packers.
Speaker 3 (20:47):
For me, Now another team you like NFC.
Speaker 2 (20:49):
You have Falcons over the Bucks, good bet for their
win total over possibly division all that stuff. I have
liked the Falcons a lot, but I'm seeing like real
ex from you regarding Pennix and Drake London.
Speaker 3 (21:03):
We got a lot of fantasy listeners.
Speaker 2 (21:04):
It sounds like those are two potential major targets you
should have as opposed to say Stafford.
Speaker 4 (21:10):
Yeah, and again similar to Green Bay, I did not
expect to really be high on Atlanta when I started this,
And this is what you know, really this exercise helps
me focus in on what actually happened last year, and
when you dig into the numbers, you know, I knew
the Falcons offense was pretty good all season. They were
they were. They had the lowest three and out rate
(21:30):
among all teams in the NFL on offense, like they didn't.
There were no easy outs when you face the Atlanta
like they were consistently getting first downs. They were, you know,
from a success rate standpoint, one of the top five
or six offenses in the NFL. What really hurt them
were turnovers, and we all saw Kirk Cousins just completely
collapse for that stretch, you know, probably the last five
(21:52):
or six games of you know, his season last year.
He totally you know, sabotaged that offense to the point
where he, I mean they led the NFL with the
most turnovers in the second half of close games, Like
he had seven interceptions in the second half of games.
Like he was just a in the fourth quarter of games. Sorry,
I mean he was a complete zero. And he cost
(22:14):
them a lot of close games. And so to me,
it's like, Okay, now I get a guy in Michael Penix,
who honestly I wasn't that high on coming into the
draft when they took him, but you know, he clearly
has a much better arm than Cousins. He pushes the
ball down the field, so you get those explosive plays
that you don't necessarily get with Cousins. He is more
mobile obviously than Kirk Cousins. You know, we saw only
(22:35):
three games at the end of last year. If you
look at PFF, they've got what they call their big
time throw rate, which means like, you know, specific throws
down the field that you know, they consider a quote
unquote big time. He led the NFL in those big
time throws. So to me, it's like, okay. And they
also were really good in between, you know, from the
twenty to you know, twenty to twenty. Inside the red zone,
(22:58):
they failed, you know, higher rate than than what you'd
expect for a team with this sort of offensive you know,
these offensive metrics. So between high leverage spots, Layton games
and in the red zone, Kirk Cousins really failed them.
And so I think if you just you know, fix
some of the turnover issues, you get some regression there
(23:18):
and you get some more you get more explosive plays
down the field. With Pennix, that offense could be top
five to six in the league. They play twelve Dome
games and their schedule is you know, pretty pretty easy.
Like I don't think Tampa's got a good defense at all.
They didn't make any improvements. Carolina's maybe the worst defense
in the NFL. You know, the Saints are not or
not a good defensive team like that. That's six games
(23:40):
right there against you know, some pretty poor pass defenses,
and you know, I just think that the offense can
really really drive this team to the playoffs. And then
you look at the defense. Everyone's gonna point in the defense, like, yeah,
they weren't great last year. They were much worse on
high leverage third down situations. They could not get a
pass rush. They were bottom two in sack rate and
(24:00):
a pressure rate on third downs. They could not get
off the field every other down. They were fine on
early downs. They were top twenty in the NFL. Like,
they were fine if they can just get a pass rush,
and they threw multiple resources at their pass rush to
improve it. You know, they signed Leonard Floyd, who's you know,
he's not an elite pass rusher anymore, but he can
get you seven eight sacks. He's a veteran good rotation guy.
(24:22):
And they drafted those two guys in the first round,
James Pearson Walker out of Georgia. Like, they have real
options at the edge position. If one of those rookies
hit and you get Leonard Floyd in there, like, yeah,
they can get a few stops that they didn't get
last year, and they don't have to be an elite defense.
I'm just looking for give me a top you know,
sixteen to twenty defense to go with this offense of
(24:45):
the potential with Drake London and be John Robinson and
Darnell Mooney, et cetera. You know, I think that they've
got a shot to win the division and sneak up
on teams and you know, maybe win eleven twelve games.
Speaker 1 (24:56):
Fox Sports Radio has the best sports talk lineup in
then catch all of our shows at Foxsports Radio dot
com and within the iHeartRadio app search FSR to listen live.
Speaker 3 (25:09):
You also have Arizona doing the same thing.
Speaker 2 (25:11):
Now, obviously you've been on this pod before hyping Jonathan
Gannon from way back when he was hired.
Speaker 3 (25:17):
He's an Ohio guy.
Speaker 2 (25:19):
I am curious that division. You know, Niners easy schedule,
rams are I mean, I think I don't know if
you heard Turnoff was on here maybe two months ago
saying he's got rams bill super Bowl. It feels like
the Cardinals winning ten games, Gannon Coach of the Year.
That seems like something nobody's gonna have yet this is
what you got.
Speaker 4 (25:39):
Yeah, I like, I mean Arizona. To me, it was
not highing them last year. They had a really tough
schedule going in. I just didn't think they did anything
on defense, that they had no talent on defense outside
of Buddha Baker, and they coached them up. They did
a really good job of scheming things. If you if you,
you know, talk to some of the film nuts out there,
the nerds that really dive into these things, Like some
(26:00):
of the stuff they were doing on defense with the
exotic blitzes and the disguises were really next level. They
were kind of Brian Flora's esque. And you know, they
took no talent on defense and you know kept them
in a lot of games. They won eight games, like
with no talent on defense or offense, was solid top
twelve unit and they bring everybody back. And that was
with Marvin Harrison, by the way, really struggling as a rookie.
(26:22):
Like they did not have a connection with Kyler Murray.
So you've got that off side. Okay, what if finally,
you know, Marvin Harrison figures it out with Kyler Murray
and he adds that extra element they bring everybody else back,
they should be fine on that side of the ball.
And defensively, you know, they added like five six starters.
You know, Walter Nolan who they drafted, Kalais Campbell, who's
still you know, some of his PF you look at
(26:43):
some of his PFF grade is really solid at defensive tackle,
Dalvin Tomlinson solid defensive tackle. You know, they signed Josh
Sweat as their big edge addition. They you know, they
traded for Baron Browning at the deadline last year, who
was a really solid pressure guy for Denver. They get
back Ojali bj Ojali from LSU who had a nice
(27:04):
rookie season and got you know, I think he tore
his name before the season last year. So you know,
they have some really solid guys in that pass rush.
It's like a bunch of dudes. And they've coach up
that secondary pretty good. I think they've got the makings
of a top fifteen defensive unit. And their schedule last
year they faced they were the one of the only
teams to face both the top ten toughest offensive and
(27:27):
defensive schedule by EPA in the NFL. I think the
Niners of the other team, So they did a lot.
I mean they won eight games against all really tough
schedules against some really good teams, and you know, I
do think that there's some upside here. And I just
think for me, you know, from with a division standpoint,
like you know, they're pretty solid, solid bet and now
with the Rams kind of fall potentially falling off with
(27:49):
if Stafford does have you know, a real injury, they
can leap up there. And you know, for for me,
for coach of the year, like Gannon checks all the
boxes and if they go from eight to eleven wins,
maybe well, like he's gonna have a real shot here
at twenty to one or higher to win, not coach
of the year.
Speaker 2 (28:05):
Well, I love when you plant your flag on I
was doing I tried to do with Minnesota this offseason.
Then I read your recap and again, these are things
you don't see everywhere regarding Minnesota.
Speaker 3 (28:16):
Nine and one in one score games.
Speaker 2 (28:18):
You know, a couple other notes that turnovers, turnovers on defense. Yeah,
so like I've started to back off Minnesota and I'm
looking but listen, that's all we do this month, right,
You've got the preseason games you dig in h TA
as usual, great stuff obviously, the audience should be downloading
in your packet and getting on your site for the
(28:39):
gambling tidbits. By the way, it seems like the gambling
space is starting to thin out a little bit.
Speaker 3 (28:45):
You're not going anywhere, right.
Speaker 1 (28:47):
You know, So I no, I don't.
Speaker 4 (28:49):
You know, I'm not a pro. Better I bet the NFL,
like like, I'm a pro, but everything else I'm not
a pro. I have a day job. But you know,
my site is more I call it content basics. You know,
there's so many the average oh doesn't just beat on games.
They played the FS. They've got fantasy football, they do pools, right,
So like I try to write up as many games
as I can give, you know, match up angles, you know,
(29:10):
trend trend lines, patterns, stats, injury reports, all those sorts
of things that you can take as as a content
you know, as a customer, and then you can do
whatever you want with that information. You can use it
for all different platforms. So to me, I'm kind of
I'm still going to be doing all those things and
I'm not going away from that perspective. So hopefully people
get value when they go to the site. But yeah,
(29:32):
the guys who are the probatters, you know, are dealing
with these these new gambling laws that were in the
big bill that are really going to hurt them. So
you know, that's uh, that's that's a situation that you know,
hopefully they get reverse. But yeah, for me from a
content side, uh yeah, I'm not going away.
Speaker 3 (29:49):
We need that content all right.
Speaker 2 (29:50):
TA great stuff, And now we'll certainly talk to you
probably early September when you're ten to zero in the
contest and I'm nine to one chasing use have it
sounds good.
Speaker 4 (29:59):
I appreciate it.
Host
Jason McIntyre
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