September 8, 2023 • 51 mins
On today’s episode, Jason kicks things off by sharing his thoughts on the Detroit Lions’ opening night road win over the Kansas City Chiefs. Later, professional sports bettor and 2020 Supercontest winner David Baker checks in to discuss a few of his favorite NFL week 1 Survivor picks. Finally, J-Mac closes the show with his own Best Bets for this weekend’s NFL action.
Follow Jason on Twitter and Instagram. Click here to subscribe, rate and review all of the latest Straight Fire with Jason McIntyre podcasts! #Volume
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:01):
The volume. This is Straight Fire with Jason McIntyre.
Speaker 2 (00:15):
What is up Straight Fire, Fam, It's me Jason McIntyre
Street Fire for Friday, September eighth, first NFL.
Speaker 3 (00:24):
Game is in the book.
Speaker 2 (00:25):
We got a dub how about that called my shot Lions.
I said thirty one thirty I'll take twenty one to
twenty money line. I know a lot of you cash
because I got your text messages some of your friends,
and then I got the DMS from buddies.
Speaker 3 (00:39):
Guys.
Speaker 2 (00:40):
How about that game, It's almost like, I don't know.
The Chiefs look kind of, sort of vulnerable.
Speaker 3 (00:47):
We'll dig into all of that.
Speaker 2 (00:48):
All the drops by Kadarius Tony me looking like an
idiot starting sky Moore in Fantasy, Oh my gosh, we'll
get into that obviously. We have a monster interview with
David Baker, who has done exceptionally well historically in the
big money, million dollar Vegas contests. Are going to love
that interview. And at the end of the podcast, I
can't believe I did it. Fifteen minutes worth of best
(01:09):
bets like a moron. I tried to break down every
single game. You can't better in every single game and
win you've got to be selective and I try to,
you know, talk you guys through my process from some
of them. Got a lot of bets. We'll see how
they shake out. But obviously, first we got to start
with the Kansas City Chiefs, who, for large stretches of
(01:31):
the opener in case, looked woefully inept on offense. Chiefs fans,
you know, they're out on the ledge.
Speaker 3 (01:38):
They are concerned.
Speaker 2 (01:39):
They didn't think that Kadarius Tony Skymore combo, that.
Speaker 3 (01:42):
Wasn't gonna be a problem.
Speaker 2 (01:43):
We're good Caderio's Tony's got Jews, He's got pop sky
Moore was he second round pick.
Speaker 3 (01:48):
I loved him coming out of Western Michigan.
Speaker 2 (01:50):
I had him in the first late first round of
my mock. According to the stats, they combined not just
those two, but all the receivers for four drops, tied
for the second most ever in a game that Mahomes
was a quarterback in Kansas City second half when targeting
wide receivers, Patrick Mahomes was two of twelve. And of course,
(02:13):
the pick six got Detroit back in the game. When
the Detroit offense, which we'll get too shortly, was stuck
in the mud. That pick six right off the hands
of Kadarius Tony, and you know, you go online, you're
gonna see like Chiefs fans have broken down all the drops.
Like Cadarius Tony had a rough night. It's much easier
when you know you're the number three option, you know
how I like to talk about him in men's league.
(02:34):
In basketball, I'm not a number one option, guys. I'm
a realist. I love hoops, I love taking shots. I'm
best in a five man group. I'm if we're the
number four option and I'm fourth, like, we're good. If
I'm the fifth option, we're not losing.
Speaker 4 (02:50):
Now.
Speaker 2 (02:51):
If I'm the second option, We're probably gonna be in
some trouble. Kadarius Tony has had a nice life, as
you know, third guy, fourth guy, slot guy. The spotlight
was on him tonight. He was the dude Kelsey out,
which is, by the way, the smart move. I think
it was smart to sit Kelsey. He should be back
for the Jacksonville game. But Kelsey and Sky Moore, I mean,
(03:13):
they could not separate. Mahomes got hit seven times, three
of them by Aden Hutchinson, and it should have been
way more because oh my gosh, and we talked about
it here on the podcast.
Speaker 3 (03:24):
We'd love to talk about the trenches. I know people don't.
Speaker 2 (03:26):
Love to dig into tackles and guards and centers. Just
go look at the Kansas City Chiefs starting new tackles,
brand new.
Speaker 3 (03:35):
And they looked overwhelmed.
Speaker 2 (03:37):
Mahomes, you can't receivers, can't separate. They missed Juju at
least he could separate. And then the guys he is
throwing to aren't making catches. I mean, it's Bell, it's
Rice who By the way, I got in an auction league.
I had him in the starting lineup and I had
to pull him. I'm like, there's no way he's doing anything.
Of course, he catches a touchdown sky Moore zero, non
(03:59):
fact embarrassing.
Speaker 3 (04:01):
But I know I'm.
Speaker 2 (04:03):
Bagging on the Chiefs a little bit here, but let's
be real, guys. Without Chris Jones, they struggled to stop
the run. Now for three quarters, well I'd say for
two and a half quarters, they largely bottled up the run.
The kid Gibbs, the young kid out of Obama. He's
a transfer.
Speaker 3 (04:18):
He was at Georgia Tech.
Speaker 2 (04:19):
He goes to Obama. Remember I had a Heisman ticket
on him last year. I talked about that. It didn't
come close to Stinthic the heintsman, but he looked I
mean that guy Spry. He is just bouncing around absorbing
hits and I was waiting for more usage from him.
It seemed like maybe they don't trust him as much yet.
I think he had seven carries compared to like twenty
one from Montgomery. Montgomery looked good, but bottom line, then
(04:42):
she's got bullied.
Speaker 3 (04:43):
They got pushed around.
Speaker 2 (04:44):
In the trenches and they missed Chris Jones and the
receivers dropped a million passes like Mahomes and read are.
Speaker 3 (04:50):
Good, but that looked like a little too much to overcome.
Speaker 2 (04:53):
So now Kansas City has to go on the road
to a fired up can Jacksonville Jaguars team that played
them reasonably tough last year. I know they won by
seven and ten. I think it was seven and ten,
and we'll talk about it in best bets. Jacksonville might
need to be on upset alert this week against Indy.
(05:13):
Overlooking Indy, Anthony Richardson, no, Jonathan Taylor, and I just
wonder if maybe Jacksonville is susceptible this week because they're
looking ahead to next week. Kansas City owen won going
on the road to a good team, a playoff team,
and if Kelsey's back, it ain't gonna be easy.
Speaker 3 (05:33):
I'm just telling you that right now.
Speaker 2 (05:34):
And oh, by the way, Juwan Taylor one of the
Kansas City tackles who struggled mightily and was off sides
down every play and they only called it once late.
He played in Jacksonville last year, so I think Trayvon
Walker and company they're familiar with his work. It's not
gonna be easy for Kansas City next week, folks. Now,
a quick word about the Lions. I didn't think they
(05:56):
look great.
Speaker 3 (05:57):
I'll be honest.
Speaker 2 (05:59):
The early drive where they went for it on fourth
down very ballsy. Loved that call, and they end up
scoring on that drive. They look great on that drive.
Almost every other drive was garbage. They get into the
red zone. Jones with the brutal fumble that was a killer,
and it looked like they just didn't have the confidence
Goff missing throws. It just was not clicking for Detroit
(06:20):
for long stretches, and of course the defense kept him
in it, although you could argue it was a Kansas
City offense or lack thereof.
Speaker 3 (06:26):
And then branch.
Speaker 2 (06:27):
The young kid out of Alabama gets lucky interception off
Tony's hands right into his bread basket, and we got
a tie game. And they hung around, hung around, and
then that big catch by Josh Reynolds. Shout out to
Josh Reynolds. His new wife used to work at Fox.
Speaker 3 (06:42):
I know her well.
Speaker 2 (06:43):
Josh Reynolds had a huge catch and run on that
instrumental game winning go.
Speaker 3 (06:48):
Ahead drive and the fourth.
Speaker 2 (06:50):
Super happy for Josh Reynolds and this team will be
getting Jamison Williams back. I think week six for the
gambling and we're just scratching the surface in Detroit. I
didn't think they look great, but this was a tall
order to go to the defending champs on the road
and pull off the dub. I don't know, Rob, I
don't want to go overboard, but I'm already regretting not
(07:10):
putting the Lions in the NFC North first play spot.
Speaker 3 (07:16):
I have them missing the playoffs.
Speaker 2 (07:17):
I had them, Remember, I had them in the playoffs,
and I backed off at last minute, looking regrettable. Because
the team's got some talent. Man, I'm as Saint Brown's excellent.
Gibbs is real shifty.
Speaker 3 (07:28):
I like that team. The offensive line looked.
Speaker 2 (07:30):
Good, made plays, and the defense you know, we'll see
you know, they got a little lucky there, fortuitous, but
a nice win for Detroit. You take it however you
can get it, and then you move on to week two.
Speaker 5 (07:43):
Yeah, you need to stop drinking the Honolulu Blue kool
aid right now, Jason.
Speaker 3 (07:46):
That was.
Speaker 5 (07:49):
Not a good performance by either team. Like, neither team
should feel good about them. I guess if you're Detroit,
because you know, you're a poverty franchise historically, so when
you get a win like this, this is probably their
super Bowl, you know, of the last five years. If
I were to get like, you know, they just haven't
been good. So to get a win like this an
opening night against the defending champions on the road, I
(08:10):
understand why they would be excited, and you would see
the guys on the gram, you.
Speaker 4 (08:13):
Know, having fun.
Speaker 5 (08:15):
But when Dan Campbell is asked after the game, like, hey,
would you learn about your team and a win like this,
and his answer is, quote, I didn't learn anything. I
got a verification of what I already knew. So you
knew that your offense was mostly an EPT. You knew
that your defense going against the team without their only
good receiving option was still allowing guys to run free
(08:36):
in the secondary that you could not actually sack Patrick
Lomes Eve though you could pressure the heck out of him.
He was killing you on these little seven eight yard
scrambles that kept extending drive and extending drive. It ultimately
would fail because of the Chief wide receivers. And the
only reason that you won this game is because, as
you mentioned it, a fluke pass that hits a receiver
(09:00):
fight in the hands, that bounces directly to your safety
for a pick six. Otherwise, the Chiefs win this game.
As bad as they played, they win this game word
not for that Kadarius Tony drop pick six on the
flip side. Go ahead, I'm sorry, Well, you.
Speaker 3 (09:14):
Rob, you're a bit of a hater here. Let's well,
let's be real.
Speaker 2 (09:18):
The Detroit defense showed up without looking at the box score.
Longest carry by a Kansas City.
Speaker 3 (09:24):
Chief running back not Mahomes running back.
Speaker 2 (09:27):
You want to guess how long it was?
Speaker 5 (09:28):
Six yards seven?
Speaker 2 (09:31):
That defensive line dominated the trenches. Like last year, Detroit
couldn't stop anybody couldn't stop a nosebleed.
Speaker 3 (09:37):
They got run over by everybody except somehow Green Bay.
Speaker 2 (09:40):
So I was impressed with the defense. Now, Ben Johnson,
I'm kind of with you.
Speaker 3 (09:44):
I'm not drinking the.
Speaker 2 (09:45):
Blue kool aid whatever that means, but I thought the
defense was impressive. Listen, Mahomes averaged five point eight yards
per tempt. That is rinky dink garbage like golf was
at seven point two, I believe. So it's all like
guys can't get open and guys are dropping passes, and
Mahomes is like scrambling for his life.
Speaker 3 (10:05):
Now we don't give Detroit a little bit of credit
for that.
Speaker 5 (10:09):
I mean, you get credit for winning, but I don't
know how you would come out of the game talking
shit like I don't think you should feel great about
their performance that they put on. Okay, the only thing
that I will say that, you know, if you're Alliance
fans you feel good about is at the end of
the game when you're trying to kill clock and on
that drive, the drive to score the touchdown to go ahead,
(10:29):
and then the drive to end the game running the football.
Is they were able to pound the ball with David Montgomery,
and that's something that good teams should be able to do,
you know, in the fourth quarter, when you know what's
coming and they're still able to execute the way that
they did. That's something they should be happy about. They
ran behind the left side of the offensive line and
they did what they had to do. And then on
(10:50):
the flip side in Kansas City, I must have the
wrong source here because I got it from a chiefs
media personality put it out there, but he tweeted out
that Kadarius Tony finished with one receiving yard, one catch
for one receiving yard, negative one rushing yards. This guy
gave Tony credit for four drops. If ESPN seen the
whole team only had four drops, then I don't know
(11:11):
what to say, but four drops one of those drops
leading to the pick six, and he called it, quote
the worst performance any skill player has ever had. And ever,
I don't know if that's incorrect. Better that was a
bad performance. So and then the other thing, And I
(11:32):
know Kadarius Tony's taking a lot of heat, but ESPN
has like their advanced catch percentage plus expected, Like, you know,
we're kind of really deep in the weeds here, but
of their receiving corps, only two guys had a positive
catch percentage above expected. Marquez Valdez scantly had a huge
(11:52):
one because he had that big catch early on that
let that touchdown on the second quarter. Justin Ross had one.
I think he only had one catch. I guess they
said he had a positive. Everybody else was negative, peaking
with Kadarius Tony minus fifty eight point nine percent and
Sky Moore minus sixty one point three percent. And this
brings me back, I know my way of saying. This
(12:14):
is something that we've been talking about for a few
weeks now. I mentioned earlier on the pod about Travis
Kelsey about him getting hurt, and I think yesterday's podcast
is if you're Patrick Mahomes and your Travis Kelce, and
I know I'm banging on this drum, but you keep
giving team friendly deals even though the sports agent world
(12:35):
called the Patrick Mahomes deal the worst NFL history. Travis
Kelce goes on record to Vanity Ferris saying that he
knows that he's underpaid and sometimes he feels taken advantage of,
but you do that for a reason. Right in their eyes,
they're doing this so they can have teams the weapons
around them, so they can be in the Super Bowl
hunt year and a year out, so you can have
guys around you while they're taking less money and their
best defensive players not there because he's not getting paid
(12:57):
what he should get based on the market value. And
more specifically, you're taking less money so that if something
happens in Travis Kelce, you have a wide receiver corps
of guys you can count on. And what we saw
last night and Opening Night football is not only is
this Chiefs wide receiving corps unproven.
Speaker 3 (13:17):
It looks like easily the worst.
Speaker 5 (13:20):
Wide receiver corps in the NFL. The guys are dropping
passes left and right. There's no explosiveness outside of you
know what schemed open. I don't see these guys winning
one on one battles Kansas City. They gotta do something.
Speaker 1 (13:36):
I know.
Speaker 5 (13:36):
It's when Travis Kuton is gonning back. It's gonna regulate
a lot of things. But they need to be in
the market for some kind of trade before the deadline
to get another receiver, just not even not even a
game breaking receiver, but just someone you can count on
in pressure situations because what they have right now obviously
is not.
Speaker 2 (13:52):
It didn't the Rams add obj like at the deadline
or was that before the season when.
Speaker 5 (13:59):
They went I was at the deadline from Cleveland.
Speaker 3 (14:01):
Yeah, that's like a good move. So I don't know.
Speaker 2 (14:06):
I think a lot of people missed this game because
they were like, oh, no, Kelsey, no big deal. Like
you've been working on a game plan for week one,
for weeks, you've been installing stuff, and then three days
before the game, your best offensive skill position player goes
down and it's like that, that's like no time to
(14:27):
completely change the entire program. And it looked like it
kind of a dysfunctional team right Like they didn't. It
just didn't seem crisp and buttoned up, very unreadlike. And
I think that happens because Kelsey was ruled out so
quickly and then and then it was like, well, he's
gonna give it a go before the game, and I
was like, well, wait a second, is he gonna play?
Speaker 1 (14:46):
Is he not?
Speaker 2 (14:46):
Like they had to change a lot of things quickly,
and they just didn't do a great job. And let's
be real, the offensive tackles did not look good. I
don't want to go overboard bashing the Chiefs.
Speaker 3 (14:58):
It is one game. They will be okay. I don't
think that Jacksonville game is gonna be a cakewalk.
Speaker 2 (15:03):
I'm very curious what the lion is. Let's just say
Jacksonville beats the Colts, Like, I don't know what are
the Chiefs three point.
Speaker 3 (15:11):
Favorites in Jacksonville three and a half? Are they? I
don't know.
Speaker 2 (15:15):
We'll find out because uh, I don't know that. I
think the number could be a little.
Speaker 3 (15:20):
Shorter than that. Jacksonville is gonna be feisty now.
Speaker 2 (15:22):
I do want to look at the Lions, because the
Lions deserved some props. I got buddies who are Lions fans.
I know, imagine that Lions fans and they're texta.
Speaker 3 (15:30):
Me, get on the bandwagon.
Speaker 1 (15:31):
Jay.
Speaker 2 (15:32):
Remember two years ago I tried this, guys, I was
all about the Lions and they just, you know, crap
their pants and maybe look like a the jackass. I'll
quickly point this out. Detroit hosts Seattle next week. That game,
if I remember last year, it was super close. Seattle
got a close win, I think.
Speaker 3 (15:52):
Then Detroit hosts Atlanta. Then Detroit goes to Green Bay.
Rob are any of these teams tough?
Speaker 2 (15:59):
Then Detroit Carolina, then Detroit goes to Tampa. You've got
to go all the way to week seven to find
a real tough game for the Lions given what we
just saw. Now again, I'm not saying they're automatically beating Seattle,
but like all of a sudden, that's a stealing a
win over Kansas City. Like, I think you've got to
just based off that alone, all things being equal, health
(16:22):
Detroit's a ten win team now, right, Rob, I think
that's a fair statement.
Speaker 5 (16:27):
I mean, but the thing is, do you think they
played well against Kansas City? That's what I know that
they want, But ultimately, do you think that they played
well because I don't. I think Dan Johnson Water was
getting too cute. Jared Goff when he was pressured, wasn't
you know. I mean that's been his mo for a while.
When he's pressured, he's not that great. And outside of
Amana Saint Brown, who's awesome, the guys on the outside
(16:49):
are very inconsistent.
Speaker 4 (16:51):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (16:51):
Well, again, I think the pushback would be, well, it's
in Arrowhead against the defending Super Bowl champs. Now, I
know the best offensive Jones, yes, all that, but this
has to be a huge positive to steal a.
Speaker 3 (17:08):
Win on the road.
Speaker 2 (17:09):
And again, I just rattled off some of the schedule, bro,
Like there's just not a lot of tough here. They
do have a big date with Dallas later in the
season that's on Saturday night.
Speaker 3 (17:22):
Yeah, that's a Saturday Night special. But like, these are
the quarterbacks.
Speaker 2 (17:26):
The Detroit Lions go from facing Patrick Mahomes who tried
to make chicken shit out of chicken whatever they had yesterday,
whatever they had to gate. So they're facing I forget
this thing. So they're facing Geno Smith, Desmond Ritter, Jordan Love,
Bryce Young, Baker Mayfield.
Speaker 3 (17:41):
Those are the next six quarterbacks are facing.
Speaker 5 (17:44):
Rob not exactly murderers Roe.
Speaker 3 (17:47):
I'm sorry.
Speaker 2 (17:47):
Those are the next five quarterbacks are facing before Lamar Jackson.
And then it's your boy Jimmy g and then it's
you know, Herbert and Fields and but like there's a
window here where the Lions suddenly they are like five
and oh, I think and again it is one week.
Don't want to overreact, but I don't know, man, you
go for fasik, Patrick Mahomes, like Bryce Young, nervous about
(18:08):
Bryce Young. See how many receivers are out for Carolina
this week. Anyways, they're in the best bet without further ado,
Let's get to our guest, David Baker, professional gambler, professional
poker player.
Speaker 1 (18:20):
You know a guy Jason likes to think he knows
everything when it comes to sports.
Speaker 2 (18:25):
I know what sports fans want.
Speaker 1 (18:27):
But for everything he doesn't. He knows a guy who does.
Speaker 2 (18:30):
Let's just say I know a guy who knows a
guy who knows another guy.
Speaker 3 (18:36):
All right, let's welcome into straight fire.
Speaker 2 (18:37):
A guy who's been on the pot a few times
over the last few years.
Speaker 3 (18:41):
Great gambler.
Speaker 2 (18:42):
He's dominated those Vegas contests that I so badly want
to win.
Speaker 3 (18:46):
David Baker, How are.
Speaker 4 (18:48):
You, Dave? I'm great.
Speaker 6 (18:51):
Thanks for having me here. I'm excited to join you.
Always one of my favorite podcasts to do every year.
Speaker 2 (18:57):
Yeah, well, thank you very much every year Week one
we got we got to have you on because you
just crushed the contest. First of all, let's ask are
you doing just the Circa?
Speaker 3 (19:06):
Are you doing the Survivor?
Speaker 2 (19:07):
How many big money Vegas contests have you entered the season?
Speaker 6 (19:13):
Me and my partner Mark greg Rich, we maxed out
the Survivor, which is ten each.
Speaker 4 (19:19):
She did ten, I did ten, and then we.
Speaker 6 (19:22):
Did we were in the contest of you know, the
pick them contest at Survivor, have a few entries there,
and have a few entries at the Westgates Super Contest
Circus kind of the big boy in town. But we
won Westgates, so we have a little affinity towards Westgate.
Speaker 2 (19:41):
Humor, the audience, the survivor. You have ten entries each.
It's a thousand to enter the circus contest, the season
long one. How much is it to enter the Survivor contest?
Speaker 4 (19:54):
Yeah, there are a thousand each.
Speaker 3 (19:57):
You know, this is a this is who we is guys.
Speaker 6 (20:01):
Look, I mean, the fact of the matter is there's
not many things out there that you've got a chance
to win eight million or six million or whatever it is,
So sometimes you got to fire your shot. I actually
have friends who have conglomerates who have like more and whatever.
But you know, we try to be somewhat responsible. I
know twenty might sound like a lot, but it's really not.
(20:21):
I'm you know, there's in reality, those contests are filled
with groups who have you know, a lot more, But
that doesn't really mean you don't really need that many
entries to win. I mean, I think a majority of
the ones who have won have had like just a
few entries or maybe one or whatever. So look, the
paths are hard, and we do something a little bit
(20:43):
different than some guys. Some guys choose a path where
they'll just you know, diversify and always lose like a
team a week or whatever because they have so many
different ones. We pretty much just kind of go all
in on a couple teams each week and try to
get as many entries as as possible.
Speaker 4 (21:01):
We had a shot a few years ago.
Speaker 6 (21:03):
Last year we had ten entries and we were out
week one, so you know.
Speaker 3 (21:08):
Whoa goes see. So last year I'll never forget I do.
Speaker 2 (21:11):
I was doing an online one and I'm like one
of the final twelve people, and I look and it
said I think I had two entries in this one,
and it looking at it was like, you know, Joe
Bob sports Dash seven and I was like, this guy's
got seven entries.
Speaker 3 (21:24):
I've got no chance.
Speaker 2 (21:24):
Again, it's just simply a numbers give so humor me.
Let's talk about Week one survivor from my point of view,
and I'm in several of them.
Speaker 3 (21:31):
It is Baltimore, which.
Speaker 2 (21:33):
Is as of currently nine and a half point favorite
against Houston rookie quarterback in Houston and in Baltimore and
Washington a seven point favorite over Arizona at home. I
don't think I can look anywhere else besides those two.
But is there a game I'm perhaps overlooking that you
see some value in, maybe Minnesota, Tampa?
Speaker 3 (21:54):
I don't know.
Speaker 6 (21:56):
So there's a couple different ways to attack Survivor, the
first one being you can just play what you think
is the best play and just try to get your
teams through. The other one is trying to leverage the
fact that a lot of people will be on one
side versus the other. I mean, clearly the best pick
this week is Baltimore from pure who's more likely to
(22:19):
win this week, and Washington would be second just based
on the point spread.
Speaker 4 (22:23):
But you also have to.
Speaker 6 (22:24):
Look at the fact of you know, how much more
likely is it that Washington wins than say Seattle, where
Seattle might have three percent of the entries and Washington
might have forty percent of the entries, So you know,
if they're both like eighty percent to win, you know,
you're basically leveraging your spot.
Speaker 4 (22:45):
Whereas if one.
Speaker 6 (22:47):
Of them is going to lose one out of five
times and it's just kind of random which one it is,
if Washington is the team that loses all of a sudden,
you're in a survivor with forty percent of the people gone.
Whereas if you play Washington and Seattle loses, you're in
a survivor pool that is ninety seven percent of the
people left. So there's a lot of different ways that
you can do it. I mean, from my standpoint, we
(23:09):
my partner and I were discussing it today and Baltimore
is one hundred percent not going to be our play,
that's for sure, not because of what. Yeah, well, they're
just going to be popular and right there are a
lot of other spots to use Baltimore, and to win
this thing, you're gonna have to take some chances. So
(23:29):
we're not definitely not going to take Baltimore because they
have other games throughout the year.
Speaker 4 (23:33):
We would rather keep them.
Speaker 6 (23:34):
So our real art thought process is do we want
Washington and lean into the chalk, which is I think
going to be pretty heavily played because there's no spot
other on the entire car in the entire season that
Washington's a good play. So you can lean into Washington
and just accept the ownership, or you can fade them
(23:54):
and just think Hey, it's Sam Howell, it's you know,
banged up Terry McLaurin, and who knows what we're going
to get out of this cardinal seam. I mean, everybody
thinks they stink, which they probably do, but this is
the NFL, and I mean whatever. I mean, they have
athletes too, and it's not like Washington's, you know, so
if you want to avoid them, I think the best
most logical spots to look our Minnesota in Seattle, just
(24:18):
because they're at home, they're playing four teams. So the
other spot that we're kind of thinking is maybe get
a little outside the box and use Atlanta. Atlanta as
a three and a half point favorite at home against Carolina.
Neither of us really believe that much of Bryce Young,
so kind of get a mediocre team out of the
way in Atlanta and a spot where if Washington bus
(24:40):
then we could jump the you know a lot of people.
I think we're ultimately going to lean into Washington just
because in Circa, which is where our survivors are, you've
got to win twenty games, which means you have to
have twenty teams, and at the end of the day,
Washington's going to be one of the top twenty teams
most likely, so we're probably gonna have to use them
at some point, and kind of feels like there's no
(25:02):
better spots, so I'm not sure, though we haven't fully committed.
Speaker 2 (25:07):
Yeah, my only concern is the divisional dog aspect in
that Atlanta game and in the Seattle Rams one. I
know Cooper cups out, but like the divisional dogs I
think are something like seventy four percent in Week one
over the like the last like ten years. And I
know it's just one data point, it's a trend. Who cares,
but it's just something. I remember last year wasn't there
didn't everybody load up on the Jags and they ended
(25:29):
up losing the Colts or something, and it was like
everybody got wiped out.
Speaker 3 (25:32):
I did not get wiped out.
Speaker 4 (25:34):
I mean I didn't have that one. We did get
wiped out.
Speaker 6 (25:36):
We spread our entries last year on Cincinnati against Pittsburgh,
which matches your division your thought process right there with
the divisional dog, and we lost that one. And we
also had the Niners and Trey Lance and the Monsoon
against the Bears. So those those were our two games
that took us out. We were you know, but that's
why it's sometimes beneficial just to just to fade the chalk.
(26:01):
And if you would have faded those three games, which
were the three most popular games, I think Indianapolis was
for sure the most popular game, and we faded that
one correctly, but we didn't land on the right alternative.
Speaker 4 (26:14):
Look, if you want to win Survivor.
Speaker 6 (26:16):
There, yeah, if you have a lot of entries, you know,
I do have a friend who does.
Speaker 4 (26:24):
He's part of like a big syndicate.
Speaker 6 (26:25):
And he has a lot of entries and he's like
takes pieces of a lot of different things and loves
to just gamble big on Survivor. He thinks it's the
most fun sweat of the season, and he really they
really spread it around and he always gets a team
or two near the end. We're not really like that,
my partner and I we if we get there, we
want to be able to diversify come week five or
(26:47):
week six, So we're not going to put all the
entries on one, but we really try to hone in
on the couple that we think are the best. So
when somebody does lose, you're not losing any of your
entries too. So that's kind of of our philosophy on it,
but you definitely have to look at the schedule out.
Speaker 3 (27:05):
I got bounced last year.
Speaker 2 (27:07):
I had Patriots on Monday Night Football against the Bears,
and I was I think the Bailey Zappie game, and
I was just stunned and I was like one of
the last guys standing. This was like late in the season.
I was just befuddled.
Speaker 3 (27:17):
It sucked. It was painful. Anyways, Oh, let's get to
Week one. Let's start with this, David.
Speaker 2 (27:22):
Is there a game on Sunday or Monday that jumps
out at you as one where you find you have
an edge or that's a game you absolutely love and
you want to get a piece of.
Speaker 4 (27:33):
Well, I haven't really dove into Week one yet. I
just really want a lot of the news to settle out.
But I will say that I'm most likely going to
be on Seattle.
Speaker 6 (27:42):
I know that you have the divisional dog thing, but
in my opinion, Seattle is one of these teams that
I really love for this year, and I'm going to
be on them a lot this year, one of my
favorite teams. I actually think that they have a very
good chance to unseat the Niners. I think that's pretty
much a coin flip between the two of them, and
you're getting like plus two fifty or two seventy or
(28:05):
something on the Seahawks to win that division. So I
like the Seahawks and I want to take advantage before
the rest of the world kind of wakes up on them.
And I'm really out on this Rams team. I know
Stafford's back, but with no Cup and a very bad
offensive line and maybe in a historically bad defense, I
(28:26):
don't think many of these guys other than Aaron Donald
on this defense would even start on many of the
other teams in the NFL. So I really think that
the Seattle passing game, they really are, are very good
across the board on offense. They can run the football,
they can pass the football, they have a great home
(28:47):
field advantage.
Speaker 4 (28:48):
No Cooper Cup, I mean this team, this.
Speaker 6 (28:52):
Season's already started so poorly for the Rams, I really
feel like they're going to be an early tank team,
and I think they should. Honestly, I think it's it's
time for them to move on. They sold their soul
to win the Super Bowl and that's fine, but at
the end of the day, this team's not going anywhere
with an aging Matthew Stafford.
Speaker 4 (29:13):
You know, Caleb.
Speaker 6 (29:14):
Williams wants to stay in LA. I mean, he's an
LA type guy. He's got the all the charisma, he's
got all the flash, and they and they can kind
of control their own destiny if they managed to thank
enough early, they can control their own destiny versus the Cardinals.
So I do kind of think that the Rams are
kind of a long shot team, or you know, kind
(29:35):
of if you want to put something out.
Speaker 4 (29:36):
There, maybe best record or I mean worst record. So
that's kind of what I'm thinking.
Speaker 6 (29:41):
I like Seattle a lot, I think as far as
an underdog, I'm I'm still out on Russ Wilson if
you remember, you know last year I was out on him.
Speaker 4 (29:50):
I'm out on the Broncos. I'm out on Russ Wilson.
And I think the I think the Raiders can keep
it close. I mean, I love Sean Payton.
Speaker 6 (29:57):
We all love Sean Payton, but at the end of
the the day, let's not act like he's, you know,
incapable of losing games. I mean, this last few years
in New Orleans with a pretty good squad, he was
kind of, you know, middle of the pack, and so
I mean, yeah, it's great, and I'm sure he'll build
a winner their long term, but their wide receiver Cord
has all types of injuries. We don't know what we're
getting out of Javonte Williams, which obviously running backs don't
(30:20):
matter that much. But the end of the day, I
feel like the Raiders have a puncher's chance. I don't
think this is going to be a real high scoring game,
so getting over a field goal kind of lean towards
towards them as well.
Speaker 2 (30:33):
Interesting, what do you make of one of these syndicates
right angle sports? They hit Washington pushing in I think
from like five and a half or six to seven,
and it may go up more as we get closer
to kickoff. If it's true, the Clayton Thuney or whatever
his name is is the starter. You know, I know
you don't put a ton of stock into into that
kind of thing, but you know, Jonathan Gannon, new coach,
(30:54):
no quarterback, but Gannon was the defensive coordinator of the
Eagles who faced Eric the enemy's offense. Although is Andy
Reid's offense in the Super Bowl. Obviously, Sam Howell is
not Patrick Mahomes, But like the familiarity, do you give
an edge there at all to Gannon or perhaps be enemy. Hey,
we know what this guy likes to do, we know
his tendencies. We abused him in the second half. I
(31:17):
don't like big favorites, but I think on my card
for the circuit contest, I'm probably gonna be on Washington.
Speaker 6 (31:23):
Well, I think you're just dealing with too many unknowns
in this football game. I mean, yes, you know, we
want to believe that Sam Howe's taking the next step. Yes,
we want to believe that the Cardinals are the worst
team in the worst franchise.
Speaker 4 (31:36):
We want to believe that Gannon and his corny.
Speaker 6 (31:39):
Pump you up speeches, you know, translate onto the field.
But the end of the day, we really don't know
what we're getting with this Cardinals team. We really have
no idea. I mean, Nick Sirianni gave one of the
worst opening press conferences in the history of football. When
he took that job with the Eagles, everybody thought he
was doomed to fail. Dan Campbell same thing. We all
made fun of his by your knee caps off. We
(32:02):
don't really know what we're getting with a lot of
these coaches. They're coordinators, and we want to think like
that they're either really good or really bad. But you
don't really know how these guys are gonna command a
locker room. You know, who's on their staff and whatnot.
So this really isn't a game that I'm gonna lean into.
I mean, like we talked earlier Washington for survivor just
(32:23):
because of their lack of options later in the season.
I think is attractive, but I'm not really looking into it.
Wouldn't surprise me anything happened if the Cardinals came out spirited.
They're you know, all this bowl about them being the
worst team and all that, but.
Speaker 2 (32:40):
Interesting, I do. I do have a question about another
divisional matchup. Divisional dogs at home are golden week one.
I think a guest this week TA had it something
like twenty one and five maybe in Week one, some
obscene number. I have to go back and listen to it.
But the Cleveland Browns fit that description and they're at
home against the Bengals. There's also the angle of teams
(33:01):
that did not make the playoffs don't get bed in
Week one like teams that did make the playoffs. Bengals
made it, Browns didn't. So it feels like the public's
gonna hammer the Bengals. Yet we're seeing a two and
a half, meaning they know the books can't put it
at three because the buyback will be massive. It feels
like this is a spot for Cleveland. They're four and
one against Burrow. I know that doesn't mean a lot.
(33:23):
I think I'm gonna be on Cleveland in the contest.
Speaker 3 (33:25):
Are you where are you? On that one?
Speaker 6 (33:27):
I would definitely leave lean Cleveland. I do like Cincinnati's
chances long term to win this division, although I think
it is by far the toughest division in football. But
I really like this Cleveland team too. The one thing
you can just count on is line play. That's really,
you know, you don't have to worry about like a
(33:47):
lot of the things with that, and Cleveland's got really
good line play. Burrow obviously is coming off injury, which
the guy's superman, so I'm not really that worried about it.
I'm sure he's going to be fine. I feel like
I agree with you on this one. I think Cleveland's
might play. If I'm going to play the game, but
you know, divisional game under a field goal, it wouldn't
(34:09):
surprise me to go either way.
Speaker 2 (34:11):
Yeah, yeah, I got to ask about my Jets David
Jets Bills. I think it's the best game of Week one.
I don't want to overhype it, but if the Jets
go down and their offensive line gets just besieged, they
then have to go to Dallas short week to face
Michael Parsons and a nasty defensive front, it could be
doomed for the Jets. I think they're going to beat
(34:33):
the Bills in Week one, and the line's kind of pinged.
It came down to one now I see it back
up to two. Your thoughts on Jets Bills Monday? Probably
not a contest.
Speaker 6 (34:40):
Play for me though, Yeah, not a contest play for
me for sure. But iileen Bills. I think the Bill,
the continuity on the Bills is just very strong. Josh
Allen has finally recovered from his all his nagging injuries
last year. I think teams, I think the public just
kind of sours on teams when they don't get it done.
(35:02):
I think people are kind of sleeping on the Bills
a little bit. They're just kind of tired, you know.
They were the preseason favors last year, didn't get it done.
They had a chance of the year before they were
the Darlings, couldn't get it done. I think people are
just kind of off them, and the Jets are kind
of the Darlings. I do worry about that offensive line.
The Bills defense is very good. I think that there
(35:23):
is a lot of I don't know, Josh Allen's just
that kind of guy I want to walk through fire for.
And I can't imagine them, you know, getting all hyped
up for this. Really this Jets team that's gotten all
the publicity, and the Jets are going to take this division,
and Aaron Rodgers came here because you know, this division's winnable.
And the Dolphins, and you know, if you don't like
(35:44):
the Jets, you like the Dolphin. Nobody's really talking about
the Bills. I feel like they're kind of under the radar,
really good team. So I kind of lean towards the
Bills in this one, but not a real strong opinion,
because I do think it's going to be a good game.
Speaker 4 (35:58):
I mean, the Jets aren't impressive, all right.
Speaker 2 (36:01):
David Baker obviously follow him on social media. He's winning contests.
He's a legendary poker player. And we'll bring you on
mid season to see how everything's going. David, enjoy opening
weekend and we'll talk to you soon.
Speaker 1 (36:17):
The only thing better than sitting on your couch watching
the games. He's making money while he's do it. Here's
your best bet.
Speaker 2 (36:26):
Great great stuff from David Baker. He is the man.
Love his predictions and analysis and the way he breaks
things down. A big fan of his work. Don't agree
with him on everything in week one? All right, so
we had some success with the best bet on the
Lions Chiefs. I said thirty one thirty day one, twenty
(36:46):
one twenty. I'll take it. The money line two forty
three is a nice little victory to start the season.
That being said, it's a long season. It could be
a long opening weekend. Let's pest pace ourself.
Speaker 3 (37:00):
Okay.
Speaker 2 (37:01):
I will go over bets that I've already made, and
then I will go over my likely picks in the contest.
We will start with the Browns. If you had missed
the TA interview, he broke down why I got Browns
two and a half when he's after he was on
the pod, I listened to him and I looked into
all this Jim Schwartz stuff that he talked about. I
think the Browns can win this outright, So I have
(37:23):
a little money line. It's at two now, I think
you could take it. I think it's going to continue
to go down. I think the Browns will decide. I
read a really interesting piece this guy, Jeff Fogel. I
don't know if you guys follow him. I only heard
about him last year, apparently longtime Vegas guy, and he
was putting stuff on Twitter. Then he started a substack.
I don't I'm not advocating going spending money on a substack,
(37:43):
but I read a couple of things from him and
I liked it, so I subscribed. And he had a
good breakdown of what the two and a half meant.
Now we all know when the line's two and a half,
the books don't want to go to three. But he
had a really extensive breakdown on why, and it basically
means the shark money likes the underdog when it's at
two and a half. If it doesn't go to three,
(38:04):
that's because the sharps are waiting, waiting to come the
other way. I think there's two games this weekend that
exemplify that. The Cleveland Browns two now it's two and
a half now, thatine or two, and the other is
the Pittsburgh Steelers. Now I've hyped the Steelers. I got
them at three. I'm fine with them at two and
a half. I'm all in on the Steelers. They will
one hundred percent be a contest play. The Browns are
like ninety five percent of contest play. I'll see on
(38:25):
Denzel Ward and probably maybe get spooked at the end.
But Pittsburgh I think was my favorite side of the
weekend for a long time. I'm pot committed. I am,
and I kind of regret these two favorites. But Washington.
Remember Adam Turnoff came on the pod. He's at Right
Angle Sports. Right Angle Sports had Washington at six, so
(38:48):
I grabbed it. It's now at seven. I don't hate
it at seven. Now Ta's on the other side. He
has a connection in Arizona and feels like they're going
to be competitive. I just you look at that offensive
line for Arizona. I think they're starting a rookie at center,
and it's not like a first round pickrookie. They got
a rookie at tackle, and you've got Josh Dobbs running
for his life against a really, really good Washington front
(39:11):
I don't see Arizona having much success. Now, maybe Sam
Howell vomits all over himself, urinates down his leg, and
Washington is a disaster and they just keep handing the
ball over in Arizona hangs around. I don't see that happening.
I think the stadium's gonna be juiced up with Daniel
Snyder out. I believe Washington wins handily. Don't know about
him in a contest, though, I don't mind. Obviously I
(39:32):
have six. I don't mind seven either. Now the other
side that I have is Denver, and there is a
lot of Jason. Wait a minute, you've been talking all
the time about divisional dogs. Correct, Denver's at home. Denver
has a considerable advantage at home. There is some stuff
going on with the Raiders. I don't understand the Chandler
Jones like being locked out of the facility. It sounds
(39:53):
like it's kind of ugly. I think Sirtan on Devonte Adams.
Sirtan will want revenge. Javonte got him lastter good by
the way. Oh wait, dear a Carr like had an
armed Jimmy Garoppolo doesn't and look at it in San Francisco,
last year, Jimmy Garoppolo can't throw the ball deep and outside,
which is, by the way, the pattern that Adams ran
to beat Sirtan on a pass from car.
Speaker 3 (40:15):
Jimmy Garoppolo can't make that throw.
Speaker 2 (40:17):
When Brock Purdy came in for him last year, brock
Purdy had the longest air throw. I think it was
like two weeks in and that was after Garoppolo had
been the quarterback for several weeks. It was unbelievable, Like
basically they were saying Garoppolo couldn't make certain throws deep,
Brock Purty can. So what's gonna happen when this Denver front,
which is improved and better.
Speaker 3 (40:36):
It's early.
Speaker 2 (40:37):
Let's think Randy Gregory will be okay to play. He's
always hurt. I do believe this Denver team kind of
opens a can. Here Sean Payton, I excited it on her.
Do you remember when Tom Brady was the Bucks the
first time his start in the opening season, goes to
Tampa and they go to New Orleans and everybody and
their mom was on the Bucks. Everybody and Saints kicked
(41:00):
their ass. I mean, and Peyton, I'm just saying he's
a really good coach. I don't pretend to know him closely.
I did and go out to dinner with him, But
the guy was on the set like every week, and
I'm just telling you, during commercial breaks, he would instantly
go back to all these motivational techniques that he would
do and employ. He's really good. I'm rooting for him.
So I am a sneaky closeted Denver Broncos fan this season,
(41:22):
and I'm gonna be on him this week they're at
home at altitude. I'm gonna like him in week two
as well. My only concern is if they handle the Raiders.
I know this divisional could be close. Let's say this
is twenty four to ten Broncos and at the defense
is great and Russell Wilson looks like his old self.
I think you're gonna get an inflated number for Denver
(41:43):
next week. So I'm gonna jump on the Denver bandwagon. Now.
Don't know if I'm taking them in the contest, but
I have bet them minus four a couple totals. I
have under forty for Atlanta Carolina. If you couldn't tell
I like Atlanta a lot, go look at the Carolina
injury situation. First of all, the offensive line is not good.
They got boat raced in the offseason. I'm sorry. In
(42:05):
the preseason. Their offensive line just got destroyed by the
Jets and the Giants and the receiving unit. Theeland didn't
practice Thursday. Terrence Marshall's banged up. Who's like their number
three or four? And one other receiver Shark didn't practice Thursday.
It's like, is Jonathan Mingo the rookie who I did
grab in a fantasy league, is he really gonna be
(42:26):
You're starting number one receiver? And again, I don't think
Atlanta now Terrell is a pretty good cornerback, but I
don't think Atlanta's defense is anything great.
Speaker 3 (42:33):
I just don't know if.
Speaker 2 (42:33):
Bryce Young's gonna survive. So I like Atlanta to win handily.
I don't like a lot of points from Carolina. I
could see like twenty seven to nine or something like that.
Speaker 3 (42:42):
So I have the under.
Speaker 2 (42:42):
I have the over in Jacksonville, Indy over forty three
and a half. I don't trust the Jacksonville defense. I
think it's way over hyped. I know we talk divisional
home dogs are money. TA gave the number divisional home
dogs twenty one and five run since I think it's
twenty ten in week one. I just don't know if
I have the stones. I don't have the Kahonas to
(43:04):
take Indy here.
Speaker 3 (43:05):
I just don't.
Speaker 2 (43:06):
I'm sure I'll regret not taking them and they'll pull
the upset out right. You know it's possible I get
excited and just fire on the money line, just a
pizza money leading up to the game. But I just
I can't. There's just so devoid of talent, and we
know Jacksonville has the ability to score with all the
weapons they have. They got with Adam Calvin Ridley, man,
this team's got some juice. I don't like the Indie defense.
(43:28):
But bottom line is, I think there'll be points. I
probably should take Indye, but I'm being a woos and
the final total I have is the over forty three
and a half in Houston Baltimore. I believe there'll be
some garbage time action from the Texans. Would not be
surprised if this was like forty to seventeen, forty to fourteen.
Rape Ravens are gonna score. I don't know about at will,
(43:50):
but they will score a lot of points here. So
those are the three totals, I like other games I'm
looking at.
Speaker 3 (43:57):
It's funny.
Speaker 2 (43:58):
I've been trashing Tampa all offseason. I don't think they're good,
but you look at this spread and you're like, wait
a minute, Wait a.
Speaker 3 (44:05):
Minute, how are they?
Speaker 2 (44:07):
How is Minnesota favored by? Is it six and a
half or is it down to five? How the hell?
Yeah it was six, it's now down to five and
a half. And as I'm recording this Sunday, I'm sorry,
not Sunday night. I'm recording this Thursday night. I see
bet Chris perceived to be the sharpest book because they
take a lot of big bets. It's down to five.
(44:29):
I think you have to bet Tampa Bay in this spot.
Go look at the Minnesota defense. I think they lost
five starters, and it's not like they were that great
to begin with. Last year they had I think eleven
to zero one score games, ridiculous good fortune in comebacks,
and yes they're at home, and yes in the opener
(44:50):
last year they showed really well against Green Bay and
destroyed them. I just think this Tampa team with Baker
Evans Godwin, there's not going to be any quit They're
going to kee throwing and I don't think Minnesota can
put up much resistance. They just don't have the talent
on defense. So I think Tampa's gonna hang around. Now,
this is one of those Jay J be careful. It's
not a divisional matchup. It's just so I'm looking at
(45:14):
Tampa in the contest. I don't love it, but man,
it's a little tasty. I don't think anyone's gonna have
them either, so it would be like a little edge
the other game. Oh wait, did I mention Atlanta? Yeah,
I think I have Atlanta as a near lock at
three and a half in the contest. I just looked
up Brian Burns, who's a great EDG drusher. He's holding out,
(45:34):
so like Ritters should be able to have his way
against Carolina. I know the defense has some dudes, but
I think the Atlanta offense is gonna have some success there.
I'm not gonna be taking Baltimore in the contest because
I have vowed not to do double digit favorites because
it always kills me. I say I'm not gonna do it.
I say I'm not gonna do it. Then there's someone
minus eleven. Oh, come on, there's a frigging layup and
(45:56):
then they blow it. So I'm not doing double digit
favorites at all in the contest. I don't think I'm
gonna do Saints Titans in the contest. I like the
Saints a lot this year. I had liked them in
this opener, and you start reading some stuff about Tennessee
and looking into it, and you're like, damn, in this
Tennessee freaking They're gonna hang around, aren't they. Vrabel is
(46:18):
a great coach. Dennis Allen, we know, is historically not
a great coach. So I'm probably gonna shy away from
Saints in the contest. And it just goes down to three,
I'll know I was right, and the contest has three
and a half, So maybe I take Tennessee. Now, I
will add one other thing. Guys, A buddy said, hey,
do you want to be in this Sports Picks weekly contest?
(46:44):
And essentially it is you pay two hundred dollars for
the season, and every week you have to pick every
game against the spread, every game and every week somebody's
gonna win money if you win first, and then there's
an end of the season prize.
Speaker 3 (46:58):
It's bigger.
Speaker 2 (47:00):
So I'll just admit I had Detroit. The line was
six and a half. Because I guess the lines are frozen.
I'm just gonna do it this week because I don't
know who's listening, who else is in this contest. I
have a great feeling about Week one, So I have Washington.
I picked Washington minus six and a half. I have
Atlanta minus three and a half. Cleveland it's only plus
one and a half. Here. I have Baltimore minus nine
and a half. I took Indy plus three and a half.
(47:22):
Now that's way down from five. I don't know how
the hell they have Indy at three and a half,
but I'm on Indy. I got Pittsburgh two and a half.
I have Tampa six and a half. I took Tennessee
plus three and a half green Bay plus two and
a half. I have major concern with that. I want
to take the Packers this week. But this Watson Dobbs
wide receiver situation. Listen, we just watched the Chiefs struggle
(47:46):
mightily at receiver and that's with Patrick Mahomes. So now
you're taking out Dobbs and Watson maybe not playing, and
I'm like, I can't touch the Packers. So I think
I'm gonna have to lay off them. But in this thing,
you know, divisional dog, I think I can take Green
Bay in this in this pick him contest. Seattle minus
five and a half, I'm strongly considering them in the
contest as well. Denver minus four and a half on them,
(48:08):
Chargers minus two and a half. I like him. That's
gone up to three, by the way, And just keep
an eye out on that Dolphins injury report. Tront Armstead
doesn't sound like he's gonna be a go the left tackle.
Kind of a big deal going against a Bosa. You're
gonna want to monitor that TA In Game one, I
did see an awesome note. I mean, this is just
an incredible nugget that last year the Chargers had one
(48:31):
of the best game plans against the Dolphins. It was
just an awesome game plan man man coverage, press, and
they forced to it to make the deep outside throws
nothing available in the middle of field, and two it
couldn't make the throws. Chargers bottled them up. It was great.
The defensive coordinator from the Chargers was hired by the
Dolphins in the offseason. If you a classic, if you
(48:52):
can't beat them, join them right you gotta love that.
So I I like the Chargers there, but we'll see it.
Just I think I like the Chargers are so far Patriot. Okay,
this was a tough one, Patriots Eagles. I have Patriots
plus four and a half. Speaking of coaching moves, this
(49:12):
one's interesting. Anybody know where Matt Patricia is right now?
And I'm asking that, hold on, let me just google
Matt Patricia. I'm asking that. What's the word?
Speaker 3 (49:22):
Damn it?
Speaker 2 (49:23):
I know the rhetorically, it's a rhetorical question. Matt Patricia
last year was the Patriots offensive coordinator, so he knows
Mac Jones really well. Wikipedia. Matt Patricia is the senior
defensive assistant for the Philadelphia Eagles.
Speaker 3 (49:41):
Huh. Interesting.
Speaker 2 (49:45):
Matt Patricia with the Patriots all last year, knows what
Mac Jones is and limited and everything tendencies, and now
he goes to Philadelphia and he's a defensive guy. So
I wonder if we will see some tweaks from the
Eagles defensively how they approach Mac Jones because of the
(50:07):
intimate knowledge that Matt Patricia possesses of Mac Jones, who
I don't even think is very good. So I'm doing
Patriots in the contest just because it's four and a half.
But man, I want to bet the Eagles here.
Speaker 3 (50:20):
This looks to me like it could be a.
Speaker 2 (50:25):
Eagles thirty four Patriots thirteen. Jason, how did you miss
a lay up like that? The Eagles are really good?
It could I feel like we could see that. But
there is the Super Bowl hangover notes. Some guy tweeted
it at me. I had to look it up to
make sure it was accurate. The Super Bowl loser is
four and eighteen against the spread in Week one in
the last twenty two years, four and eighteen, staggering New
(50:48):
York Giants. I took plus three and a half in
this pick'um contest. I don't know if I have the
stones to take them in the real contest where real
money is. It's take like real money, you know, And
I want to be competitive in that. And that's kind
of what you have to do. I know, I'm talking
out of both sides of my mouth. To be competitive
in this thing, you're gonna have to hold your nose
and take some of these dogs with fleas. And if
(51:10):
you just look at the matchups, the Dallas Cowboys have
infinitely more talent than the Giants, but divisional matchup home dog.
It checks the boxes.
Speaker 3 (51:18):
Jason, what are you doing?
Speaker 2 (51:20):
And of course Jets. I'm taking the Jets over the Bills.
At any rate, those are best bets. That's a lot
of them. I don't want to go through every game
every weekend, but I just did. At any rate, enjoy
the weekend, enjoy the games. I can't wait for Monday.
The volume. This is Straight Fire with Jason McIntyre.
Speaker 2 (00:15):
What is up Straight Fire, Fam, It's me Jason McIntyre
Street Fire for Friday, September eighth, first NFL.
Speaker 3 (00:24):
Game is in the book.
Speaker 2 (00:25):
We got a dub how about that called my shot Lions.
I said thirty one thirty I'll take twenty one to
twenty money line. I know a lot of you cash
because I got your text messages some of your friends,
and then I got the DMS from buddies.
Speaker 3 (00:39):
Guys.
Speaker 2 (00:40):
How about that game, It's almost like, I don't know.
The Chiefs look kind of, sort of vulnerable.
Speaker 3 (00:47):
We'll dig into all of that.
Speaker 2 (00:48):
All the drops by Kadarius Tony me looking like an
idiot starting sky Moore in Fantasy, Oh my gosh, we'll
get into that obviously. We have a monster interview with
David Baker, who has done exceptionally well historically in the
big money, million dollar Vegas contests. Are going to love
that interview. And at the end of the podcast, I
can't believe I did it. Fifteen minutes worth of best
(01:09):
bets like a moron. I tried to break down every
single game. You can't better in every single game and
win you've got to be selective and I try to,
you know, talk you guys through my process from some
of them. Got a lot of bets. We'll see how
they shake out. But obviously, first we got to start
with the Kansas City Chiefs, who, for large stretches of
(01:31):
the opener in case, looked woefully inept on offense. Chiefs fans,
you know, they're out on the ledge.
Speaker 3 (01:38):
They are concerned.
Speaker 2 (01:39):
They didn't think that Kadarius Tony Skymore combo, that.
Speaker 3 (01:42):
Wasn't gonna be a problem.
Speaker 2 (01:43):
We're good Caderio's Tony's got Jews, He's got pop sky
Moore was he second round pick.
Speaker 3 (01:48):
I loved him coming out of Western Michigan.
Speaker 2 (01:50):
I had him in the first late first round of
my mock. According to the stats, they combined not just
those two, but all the receivers for four drops, tied
for the second most ever in a game that Mahomes
was a quarterback in Kansas City second half when targeting
wide receivers, Patrick Mahomes was two of twelve. And of course,
(02:13):
the pick six got Detroit back in the game. When
the Detroit offense, which we'll get too shortly, was stuck
in the mud. That pick six right off the hands
of Kadarius Tony, and you know, you go online, you're
gonna see like Chiefs fans have broken down all the drops.
Like Cadarius Tony had a rough night. It's much easier
when you know you're the number three option, you know
how I like to talk about him in men's league.
(02:34):
In basketball, I'm not a number one option, guys. I'm
a realist. I love hoops, I love taking shots. I'm
best in a five man group. I'm if we're the
number four option and I'm fourth, like, we're good. If
I'm the fifth option, we're not losing.
Speaker 4 (02:50):
Now.
Speaker 2 (02:51):
If I'm the second option, We're probably gonna be in
some trouble. Kadarius Tony has had a nice life, as
you know, third guy, fourth guy, slot guy. The spotlight
was on him tonight. He was the dude Kelsey out,
which is, by the way, the smart move. I think
it was smart to sit Kelsey. He should be back
for the Jacksonville game. But Kelsey and Sky Moore, I mean,
(03:13):
they could not separate. Mahomes got hit seven times, three
of them by Aden Hutchinson, and it should have been
way more because oh my gosh, and we talked about
it here on the podcast.
Speaker 3 (03:24):
We'd love to talk about the trenches. I know people don't.
Speaker 2 (03:26):
Love to dig into tackles and guards and centers. Just
go look at the Kansas City Chiefs starting new tackles,
brand new.
Speaker 3 (03:35):
And they looked overwhelmed.
Speaker 2 (03:37):
Mahomes, you can't receivers, can't separate. They missed Juju at
least he could separate. And then the guys he is
throwing to aren't making catches. I mean, it's Bell, it's
Rice who By the way, I got in an auction league.
I had him in the starting lineup and I had
to pull him. I'm like, there's no way he's doing anything.
Of course, he catches a touchdown sky Moore zero, non
(03:59):
fact embarrassing.
Speaker 3 (04:01):
But I know I'm.
Speaker 2 (04:03):
Bagging on the Chiefs a little bit here, but let's
be real, guys. Without Chris Jones, they struggled to stop
the run. Now for three quarters, well I'd say for
two and a half quarters, they largely bottled up the run.
The kid Gibbs, the young kid out of Obama. He's
a transfer.
Speaker 3 (04:18):
He was at Georgia Tech.
Speaker 2 (04:19):
He goes to Obama. Remember I had a Heisman ticket
on him last year. I talked about that. It didn't
come close to Stinthic the heintsman, but he looked I
mean that guy Spry. He is just bouncing around absorbing
hits and I was waiting for more usage from him.
It seemed like maybe they don't trust him as much yet.
I think he had seven carries compared to like twenty
one from Montgomery. Montgomery looked good, but bottom line, then
(04:42):
she's got bullied.
Speaker 3 (04:43):
They got pushed around.
Speaker 2 (04:44):
In the trenches and they missed Chris Jones and the
receivers dropped a million passes like Mahomes and read are.
Speaker 3 (04:50):
Good, but that looked like a little too much to overcome.
Speaker 2 (04:53):
So now Kansas City has to go on the road
to a fired up can Jacksonville Jaguars team that played
them reasonably tough last year. I know they won by
seven and ten. I think it was seven and ten,
and we'll talk about it in best bets. Jacksonville might
need to be on upset alert this week against Indy.
(05:13):
Overlooking Indy, Anthony Richardson, no, Jonathan Taylor, and I just
wonder if maybe Jacksonville is susceptible this week because they're
looking ahead to next week. Kansas City owen won going
on the road to a good team, a playoff team,
and if Kelsey's back, it ain't gonna be easy.
Speaker 3 (05:33):
I'm just telling you that right now.
Speaker 2 (05:34):
And oh, by the way, Juwan Taylor one of the
Kansas City tackles who struggled mightily and was off sides
down every play and they only called it once late.
He played in Jacksonville last year, so I think Trayvon
Walker and company they're familiar with his work. It's not
gonna be easy for Kansas City next week, folks. Now,
a quick word about the Lions. I didn't think they
(05:56):
look great.
Speaker 3 (05:57):
I'll be honest.
Speaker 2 (05:59):
The early drive where they went for it on fourth
down very ballsy. Loved that call, and they end up
scoring on that drive. They look great on that drive.
Almost every other drive was garbage. They get into the
red zone. Jones with the brutal fumble that was a killer,
and it looked like they just didn't have the confidence
Goff missing throws. It just was not clicking for Detroit
(06:20):
for long stretches, and of course the defense kept him
in it, although you could argue it was a Kansas
City offense or lack thereof.
Speaker 3 (06:26):
And then branch.
Speaker 2 (06:27):
The young kid out of Alabama gets lucky interception off
Tony's hands right into his bread basket, and we got
a tie game. And they hung around, hung around, and
then that big catch by Josh Reynolds. Shout out to
Josh Reynolds. His new wife used to work at Fox.
Speaker 3 (06:42):
I know her well.
Speaker 2 (06:43):
Josh Reynolds had a huge catch and run on that
instrumental game winning go.
Speaker 3 (06:48):
Ahead drive and the fourth.
Speaker 2 (06:50):
Super happy for Josh Reynolds and this team will be
getting Jamison Williams back. I think week six for the
gambling and we're just scratching the surface in Detroit. I
didn't think they look great, but this was a tall
order to go to the defending champs on the road
and pull off the dub. I don't know, Rob, I
don't want to go overboard, but I'm already regretting not
(07:10):
putting the Lions in the NFC North first play spot.
Speaker 3 (07:16):
I have them missing the playoffs.
Speaker 2 (07:17):
I had them, Remember, I had them in the playoffs,
and I backed off at last minute, looking regrettable. Because
the team's got some talent. Man, I'm as Saint Brown's excellent.
Gibbs is real shifty.
Speaker 3 (07:28):
I like that team. The offensive line looked.
Speaker 2 (07:30):
Good, made plays, and the defense you know, we'll see
you know, they got a little lucky there, fortuitous, but
a nice win for Detroit. You take it however you
can get it, and then you move on to week two.
Speaker 5 (07:43):
Yeah, you need to stop drinking the Honolulu Blue kool
aid right now, Jason.
Speaker 3 (07:46):
That was.
Speaker 5 (07:49):
Not a good performance by either team. Like, neither team
should feel good about them. I guess if you're Detroit,
because you know, you're a poverty franchise historically, so when
you get a win like this, this is probably their
super Bowl, you know, of the last five years. If
I were to get like, you know, they just haven't
been good. So to get a win like this an
opening night against the defending champions on the road, I
(08:10):
understand why they would be excited, and you would see
the guys on the gram, you.
Speaker 4 (08:13):
Know, having fun.
Speaker 5 (08:15):
But when Dan Campbell is asked after the game, like, hey,
would you learn about your team and a win like this,
and his answer is, quote, I didn't learn anything. I
got a verification of what I already knew. So you
knew that your offense was mostly an EPT. You knew
that your defense going against the team without their only
good receiving option was still allowing guys to run free
(08:36):
in the secondary that you could not actually sack Patrick
Lomes Eve though you could pressure the heck out of him.
He was killing you on these little seven eight yard
scrambles that kept extending drive and extending drive. It ultimately
would fail because of the Chief wide receivers. And the
only reason that you won this game is because, as
you mentioned it, a fluke pass that hits a receiver
(09:00):
fight in the hands, that bounces directly to your safety
for a pick six. Otherwise, the Chiefs win this game.
As bad as they played, they win this game word
not for that Kadarius Tony drop pick six on the
flip side. Go ahead, I'm sorry, Well, you.
Speaker 3 (09:14):
Rob, you're a bit of a hater here. Let's well,
let's be real.
Speaker 2 (09:18):
The Detroit defense showed up without looking at the box score.
Longest carry by a Kansas City.
Speaker 3 (09:24):
Chief running back not Mahomes running back.
Speaker 2 (09:27):
You want to guess how long it was?
Speaker 5 (09:28):
Six yards seven?
Speaker 2 (09:31):
That defensive line dominated the trenches. Like last year, Detroit
couldn't stop anybody couldn't stop a nosebleed.
Speaker 3 (09:37):
They got run over by everybody except somehow Green Bay.
Speaker 2 (09:40):
So I was impressed with the defense. Now, Ben Johnson,
I'm kind of with you.
Speaker 3 (09:44):
I'm not drinking the.
Speaker 2 (09:45):
Blue kool aid whatever that means, but I thought the
defense was impressive. Listen, Mahomes averaged five point eight yards
per tempt. That is rinky dink garbage like golf was
at seven point two, I believe. So it's all like
guys can't get open and guys are dropping passes, and
Mahomes is like scrambling for his life.
Speaker 3 (10:05):
Now we don't give Detroit a little bit of credit
for that.
Speaker 5 (10:09):
I mean, you get credit for winning, but I don't
know how you would come out of the game talking
shit like I don't think you should feel great about
their performance that they put on. Okay, the only thing
that I will say that, you know, if you're Alliance
fans you feel good about is at the end of
the game when you're trying to kill clock and on
that drive, the drive to score the touchdown to go ahead,
(10:29):
and then the drive to end the game running the football.
Is they were able to pound the ball with David Montgomery,
and that's something that good teams should be able to do,
you know, in the fourth quarter, when you know what's
coming and they're still able to execute the way that
they did. That's something they should be happy about. They
ran behind the left side of the offensive line and
they did what they had to do. And then on
(10:50):
the flip side in Kansas City, I must have the
wrong source here because I got it from a chiefs
media personality put it out there, but he tweeted out
that Kadarius Tony finished with one receiving yard, one catch
for one receiving yard, negative one rushing yards. This guy
gave Tony credit for four drops. If ESPN seen the
whole team only had four drops, then I don't know
(11:11):
what to say, but four drops one of those drops
leading to the pick six, and he called it, quote
the worst performance any skill player has ever had. And ever,
I don't know if that's incorrect. Better that was a
bad performance. So and then the other thing, And I
(11:32):
know Kadarius Tony's taking a lot of heat, but ESPN
has like their advanced catch percentage plus expected, Like, you know,
we're kind of really deep in the weeds here, but
of their receiving corps, only two guys had a positive
catch percentage above expected. Marquez Valdez scantly had a huge
(11:52):
one because he had that big catch early on that
let that touchdown on the second quarter. Justin Ross had one.
I think he only had one catch. I guess they
said he had a positive. Everybody else was negative, peaking
with Kadarius Tony minus fifty eight point nine percent and
Sky Moore minus sixty one point three percent. And this
brings me back, I know my way of saying. This
(12:14):
is something that we've been talking about for a few
weeks now. I mentioned earlier on the pod about Travis
Kelsey about him getting hurt, and I think yesterday's podcast
is if you're Patrick Mahomes and your Travis Kelce, and
I know I'm banging on this drum, but you keep
giving team friendly deals even though the sports agent world
(12:35):
called the Patrick Mahomes deal the worst NFL history. Travis
Kelce goes on record to Vanity Ferris saying that he
knows that he's underpaid and sometimes he feels taken advantage of,
but you do that for a reason. Right in their eyes,
they're doing this so they can have teams the weapons
around them, so they can be in the Super Bowl
hunt year and a year out, so you can have
guys around you while they're taking less money and their
best defensive players not there because he's not getting paid
(12:57):
what he should get based on the market value. And
more specifically, you're taking less money so that if something
happens in Travis Kelce, you have a wide receiver corps
of guys you can count on. And what we saw
last night and Opening Night football is not only is
this Chiefs wide receiving corps unproven.
Speaker 3 (13:17):
It looks like easily the worst.
Speaker 5 (13:20):
Wide receiver corps in the NFL. The guys are dropping
passes left and right. There's no explosiveness outside of you
know what schemed open. I don't see these guys winning
one on one battles Kansas City. They gotta do something.
Speaker 1 (13:36):
I know.
Speaker 5 (13:36):
It's when Travis Kuton is gonning back. It's gonna regulate
a lot of things. But they need to be in
the market for some kind of trade before the deadline
to get another receiver, just not even not even a
game breaking receiver, but just someone you can count on
in pressure situations because what they have right now obviously
is not.
Speaker 2 (13:52):
It didn't the Rams add obj like at the deadline
or was that before the season when.
Speaker 5 (13:59):
They went I was at the deadline from Cleveland.
Speaker 3 (14:01):
Yeah, that's like a good move. So I don't know.
Speaker 2 (14:06):
I think a lot of people missed this game because
they were like, oh, no, Kelsey, no big deal. Like
you've been working on a game plan for week one,
for weeks, you've been installing stuff, and then three days
before the game, your best offensive skill position player goes
down and it's like that, that's like no time to
(14:27):
completely change the entire program. And it looked like it
kind of a dysfunctional team right Like they didn't. It
just didn't seem crisp and buttoned up, very unreadlike. And
I think that happens because Kelsey was ruled out so
quickly and then and then it was like, well, he's
gonna give it a go before the game, and I
was like, well, wait a second, is he gonna play?
Speaker 1 (14:46):
Is he not?
Speaker 2 (14:46):
Like they had to change a lot of things quickly,
and they just didn't do a great job. And let's
be real, the offensive tackles did not look good. I
don't want to go overboard bashing the Chiefs.
Speaker 3 (14:58):
It is one game. They will be okay. I don't
think that Jacksonville game is gonna be a cakewalk.
Speaker 2 (15:03):
I'm very curious what the lion is. Let's just say
Jacksonville beats the Colts, Like, I don't know what are
the Chiefs three point.
Speaker 3 (15:11):
Favorites in Jacksonville three and a half? Are they? I
don't know.
Speaker 2 (15:15):
We'll find out because uh, I don't know that. I
think the number could be a little.
Speaker 3 (15:20):
Shorter than that. Jacksonville is gonna be feisty now.
Speaker 2 (15:22):
I do want to look at the Lions, because the
Lions deserved some props. I got buddies who are Lions fans.
I know, imagine that Lions fans and they're texta.
Speaker 3 (15:30):
Me, get on the bandwagon.
Speaker 1 (15:31):
Jay.
Speaker 2 (15:32):
Remember two years ago I tried this, guys, I was
all about the Lions and they just, you know, crap
their pants and maybe look like a the jackass. I'll
quickly point this out. Detroit hosts Seattle next week. That game,
if I remember last year, it was super close. Seattle
got a close win, I think.
Speaker 3 (15:52):
Then Detroit hosts Atlanta. Then Detroit goes to Green Bay.
Rob are any of these teams tough?
Speaker 2 (15:59):
Then Detroit Carolina, then Detroit goes to Tampa. You've got
to go all the way to week seven to find
a real tough game for the Lions given what we
just saw. Now again, I'm not saying they're automatically beating Seattle,
but like all of a sudden, that's a stealing a
win over Kansas City. Like, I think you've got to
just based off that alone, all things being equal, health
(16:22):
Detroit's a ten win team now, right, Rob, I think
that's a fair statement.
Speaker 5 (16:27):
I mean, but the thing is, do you think they
played well against Kansas City? That's what I know that
they want, But ultimately, do you think that they played
well because I don't. I think Dan Johnson Water was
getting too cute. Jared Goff when he was pressured, wasn't
you know. I mean that's been his mo for a while.
When he's pressured, he's not that great. And outside of
Amana Saint Brown, who's awesome, the guys on the outside
(16:49):
are very inconsistent.
Speaker 4 (16:51):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (16:51):
Well, again, I think the pushback would be, well, it's
in Arrowhead against the defending Super Bowl champs. Now, I
know the best offensive Jones, yes, all that, but this
has to be a huge positive to steal a.
Speaker 3 (17:08):
Win on the road.
Speaker 2 (17:09):
And again, I just rattled off some of the schedule, bro,
Like there's just not a lot of tough here. They
do have a big date with Dallas later in the
season that's on Saturday night.
Speaker 3 (17:22):
Yeah, that's a Saturday Night special. But like, these are
the quarterbacks.
Speaker 2 (17:26):
The Detroit Lions go from facing Patrick Mahomes who tried
to make chicken shit out of chicken whatever they had yesterday,
whatever they had to gate. So they're facing I forget
this thing. So they're facing Geno Smith, Desmond Ritter, Jordan Love,
Bryce Young, Baker Mayfield.
Speaker 3 (17:41):
Those are the next six quarterbacks are facing.
Speaker 5 (17:44):
Rob not exactly murderers Roe.
Speaker 3 (17:47):
I'm sorry.
Speaker 2 (17:47):
Those are the next five quarterbacks are facing before Lamar Jackson.
And then it's your boy Jimmy g and then it's
you know, Herbert and Fields and but like there's a
window here where the Lions suddenly they are like five
and oh, I think and again it is one week.
Don't want to overreact, but I don't know, man, you
go for fasik, Patrick Mahomes, like Bryce Young, nervous about
(18:08):
Bryce Young. See how many receivers are out for Carolina
this week. Anyways, they're in the best bet without further ado,
Let's get to our guest, David Baker, professional gambler, professional
poker player.
Speaker 1 (18:20):
You know a guy Jason likes to think he knows
everything when it comes to sports.
Speaker 2 (18:25):
I know what sports fans want.
Speaker 1 (18:27):
But for everything he doesn't. He knows a guy who does.
Speaker 2 (18:30):
Let's just say I know a guy who knows a
guy who knows another guy.
Speaker 3 (18:36):
All right, let's welcome into straight fire.
Speaker 2 (18:37):
A guy who's been on the pot a few times
over the last few years.
Speaker 3 (18:41):
Great gambler.
Speaker 2 (18:42):
He's dominated those Vegas contests that I so badly want
to win.
Speaker 3 (18:46):
David Baker, How are.
Speaker 4 (18:48):
You, Dave? I'm great.
Speaker 6 (18:51):
Thanks for having me here. I'm excited to join you.
Always one of my favorite podcasts to do every year.
Speaker 2 (18:57):
Yeah, well, thank you very much every year Week one
we got we got to have you on because you
just crushed the contest. First of all, let's ask are
you doing just the Circa?
Speaker 3 (19:06):
Are you doing the Survivor?
Speaker 2 (19:07):
How many big money Vegas contests have you entered the season?
Speaker 6 (19:13):
Me and my partner Mark greg Rich, we maxed out
the Survivor, which is ten each.
Speaker 4 (19:19):
She did ten, I did ten, and then we.
Speaker 6 (19:22):
Did we were in the contest of you know, the
pick them contest at Survivor, have a few entries there,
and have a few entries at the Westgates Super Contest
Circus kind of the big boy in town. But we
won Westgates, so we have a little affinity towards Westgate.
Speaker 2 (19:41):
Humor, the audience, the survivor. You have ten entries each.
It's a thousand to enter the circus contest, the season
long one. How much is it to enter the Survivor contest?
Speaker 4 (19:54):
Yeah, there are a thousand each.
Speaker 3 (19:57):
You know, this is a this is who we is guys.
Speaker 6 (20:01):
Look, I mean, the fact of the matter is there's
not many things out there that you've got a chance
to win eight million or six million or whatever it is,
So sometimes you got to fire your shot. I actually
have friends who have conglomerates who have like more and whatever.
But you know, we try to be somewhat responsible. I
know twenty might sound like a lot, but it's really not.
(20:21):
I'm you know, there's in reality, those contests are filled
with groups who have you know, a lot more, But
that doesn't really mean you don't really need that many
entries to win. I mean, I think a majority of
the ones who have won have had like just a
few entries or maybe one or whatever. So look, the
paths are hard, and we do something a little bit
(20:43):
different than some guys. Some guys choose a path where
they'll just you know, diversify and always lose like a
team a week or whatever because they have so many
different ones. We pretty much just kind of go all
in on a couple teams each week and try to
get as many entries as as possible.
Speaker 4 (21:01):
We had a shot a few years ago.
Speaker 6 (21:03):
Last year we had ten entries and we were out
week one, so you know.
Speaker 3 (21:08):
Whoa goes see. So last year I'll never forget I do.
Speaker 2 (21:11):
I was doing an online one and I'm like one
of the final twelve people, and I look and it
said I think I had two entries in this one,
and it looking at it was like, you know, Joe
Bob sports Dash seven and I was like, this guy's
got seven entries.
Speaker 3 (21:24):
I've got no chance.
Speaker 2 (21:24):
Again, it's just simply a numbers give so humor me.
Let's talk about Week one survivor from my point of view,
and I'm in several of them.
Speaker 3 (21:31):
It is Baltimore, which.
Speaker 2 (21:33):
Is as of currently nine and a half point favorite
against Houston rookie quarterback in Houston and in Baltimore and
Washington a seven point favorite over Arizona at home. I
don't think I can look anywhere else besides those two.
But is there a game I'm perhaps overlooking that you
see some value in, maybe Minnesota, Tampa?
Speaker 3 (21:54):
I don't know.
Speaker 6 (21:56):
So there's a couple different ways to attack Survivor, the
first one being you can just play what you think
is the best play and just try to get your
teams through. The other one is trying to leverage the
fact that a lot of people will be on one
side versus the other. I mean, clearly the best pick
this week is Baltimore from pure who's more likely to
(22:19):
win this week, and Washington would be second just based
on the point spread.
Speaker 4 (22:23):
But you also have to.
Speaker 6 (22:24):
Look at the fact of you know, how much more
likely is it that Washington wins than say Seattle, where
Seattle might have three percent of the entries and Washington
might have forty percent of the entries, So you know,
if they're both like eighty percent to win, you know,
you're basically leveraging your spot.
Speaker 4 (22:45):
Whereas if one.
Speaker 6 (22:47):
Of them is going to lose one out of five
times and it's just kind of random which one it is,
if Washington is the team that loses all of a sudden,
you're in a survivor with forty percent of the people gone.
Whereas if you play Washington and Seattle loses, you're in
a survivor pool that is ninety seven percent of the
people left. So there's a lot of different ways that
you can do it. I mean, from my standpoint, we
(23:09):
my partner and I were discussing it today and Baltimore
is one hundred percent not going to be our play,
that's for sure, not because of what. Yeah, well, they're
just going to be popular and right there are a
lot of other spots to use Baltimore, and to win
this thing, you're gonna have to take some chances. So
(23:29):
we're not definitely not going to take Baltimore because they
have other games throughout the year.
Speaker 4 (23:33):
We would rather keep them.
Speaker 6 (23:34):
So our real art thought process is do we want
Washington and lean into the chalk, which is I think
going to be pretty heavily played because there's no spot
other on the entire car in the entire season that
Washington's a good play. So you can lean into Washington
and just accept the ownership, or you can fade them
(23:54):
and just think Hey, it's Sam Howell, it's you know,
banged up Terry McLaurin, and who knows what we're going
to get out of this cardinal seam. I mean, everybody
thinks they stink, which they probably do, but this is
the NFL, and I mean whatever. I mean, they have
athletes too, and it's not like Washington's, you know, so
if you want to avoid them, I think the best
most logical spots to look our Minnesota in Seattle, just
(24:18):
because they're at home, they're playing four teams. So the
other spot that we're kind of thinking is maybe get
a little outside the box and use Atlanta. Atlanta as
a three and a half point favorite at home against Carolina.
Neither of us really believe that much of Bryce Young,
so kind of get a mediocre team out of the
way in Atlanta and a spot where if Washington bus
(24:40):
then we could jump the you know a lot of people.
I think we're ultimately going to lean into Washington just
because in Circa, which is where our survivors are, you've
got to win twenty games, which means you have to
have twenty teams, and at the end of the day,
Washington's going to be one of the top twenty teams
most likely, so we're probably gonna have to use them
at some point, and kind of feels like there's no
(25:02):
better spots, so I'm not sure, though we haven't fully committed.
Speaker 2 (25:07):
Yeah, my only concern is the divisional dog aspect in
that Atlanta game and in the Seattle Rams one. I
know Cooper cups out, but like the divisional dogs I
think are something like seventy four percent in Week one
over the like the last like ten years. And I
know it's just one data point, it's a trend. Who cares,
but it's just something. I remember last year wasn't there
didn't everybody load up on the Jags and they ended
(25:29):
up losing the Colts or something, and it was like
everybody got wiped out.
Speaker 3 (25:32):
I did not get wiped out.
Speaker 4 (25:34):
I mean I didn't have that one. We did get
wiped out.
Speaker 6 (25:36):
We spread our entries last year on Cincinnati against Pittsburgh,
which matches your division your thought process right there with
the divisional dog, and we lost that one. And we
also had the Niners and Trey Lance and the Monsoon
against the Bears. So those those were our two games
that took us out. We were you know, but that's
why it's sometimes beneficial just to just to fade the chalk.
(26:01):
And if you would have faded those three games, which
were the three most popular games, I think Indianapolis was
for sure the most popular game, and we faded that
one correctly, but we didn't land on the right alternative.
Speaker 4 (26:14):
Look, if you want to win Survivor.
Speaker 6 (26:16):
There, yeah, if you have a lot of entries, you know,
I do have a friend who does.
Speaker 4 (26:24):
He's part of like a big syndicate.
Speaker 6 (26:25):
And he has a lot of entries and he's like
takes pieces of a lot of different things and loves
to just gamble big on Survivor. He thinks it's the
most fun sweat of the season, and he really they
really spread it around and he always gets a team
or two near the end. We're not really like that,
my partner and I we if we get there, we
want to be able to diversify come week five or
(26:47):
week six, So we're not going to put all the
entries on one, but we really try to hone in
on the couple that we think are the best. So
when somebody does lose, you're not losing any of your
entries too. So that's kind of of our philosophy on it,
but you definitely have to look at the schedule out.
Speaker 3 (27:05):
I got bounced last year.
Speaker 2 (27:07):
I had Patriots on Monday Night Football against the Bears,
and I was I think the Bailey Zappie game, and
I was just stunned and I was like one of
the last guys standing. This was like late in the season.
I was just befuddled.
Speaker 3 (27:17):
It sucked. It was painful. Anyways, Oh, let's get to
Week one. Let's start with this, David.
Speaker 2 (27:22):
Is there a game on Sunday or Monday that jumps
out at you as one where you find you have
an edge or that's a game you absolutely love and
you want to get a piece of.
Speaker 4 (27:33):
Well, I haven't really dove into Week one yet. I
just really want a lot of the news to settle out.
But I will say that I'm most likely going to
be on Seattle.
Speaker 6 (27:42):
I know that you have the divisional dog thing, but
in my opinion, Seattle is one of these teams that
I really love for this year, and I'm going to
be on them a lot this year, one of my
favorite teams. I actually think that they have a very
good chance to unseat the Niners. I think that's pretty
much a coin flip between the two of them, and
you're getting like plus two fifty or two seventy or
(28:05):
something on the Seahawks to win that division. So I
like the Seahawks and I want to take advantage before
the rest of the world kind of wakes up on them.
And I'm really out on this Rams team. I know
Stafford's back, but with no Cup and a very bad
offensive line and maybe in a historically bad defense, I
(28:26):
don't think many of these guys other than Aaron Donald
on this defense would even start on many of the
other teams in the NFL. So I really think that
the Seattle passing game, they really are, are very good
across the board on offense. They can run the football,
they can pass the football, they have a great home
(28:47):
field advantage.
Speaker 4 (28:48):
No Cooper Cup, I mean this team, this.
Speaker 6 (28:52):
Season's already started so poorly for the Rams, I really
feel like they're going to be an early tank team,
and I think they should. Honestly, I think it's it's
time for them to move on. They sold their soul
to win the Super Bowl and that's fine, but at
the end of the day, this team's not going anywhere
with an aging Matthew Stafford.
Speaker 4 (29:13):
You know, Caleb.
Speaker 6 (29:14):
Williams wants to stay in LA. I mean, he's an
LA type guy. He's got the all the charisma, he's
got all the flash, and they and they can kind
of control their own destiny if they managed to thank
enough early, they can control their own destiny versus the Cardinals.
So I do kind of think that the Rams are
kind of a long shot team, or you know, kind
(29:35):
of if you want to put something out.
Speaker 4 (29:36):
There, maybe best record or I mean worst record. So
that's kind of what I'm thinking.
Speaker 6 (29:41):
I like Seattle a lot, I think as far as
an underdog, I'm I'm still out on Russ Wilson if
you remember, you know last year I was out on him.
Speaker 4 (29:50):
I'm out on the Broncos. I'm out on Russ Wilson.
And I think the I think the Raiders can keep
it close. I mean, I love Sean Payton.
Speaker 6 (29:57):
We all love Sean Payton, but at the end of
the the day, let's not act like he's, you know,
incapable of losing games. I mean, this last few years
in New Orleans with a pretty good squad, he was
kind of, you know, middle of the pack, and so
I mean, yeah, it's great, and I'm sure he'll build
a winner their long term, but their wide receiver Cord
has all types of injuries. We don't know what we're
getting out of Javonte Williams, which obviously running backs don't
(30:20):
matter that much. But the end of the day, I
feel like the Raiders have a puncher's chance. I don't
think this is going to be a real high scoring game,
so getting over a field goal kind of lean towards
towards them as well.
Speaker 2 (30:33):
Interesting, what do you make of one of these syndicates
right angle sports? They hit Washington pushing in I think
from like five and a half or six to seven,
and it may go up more as we get closer
to kickoff. If it's true, the Clayton Thuney or whatever
his name is is the starter. You know, I know
you don't put a ton of stock into into that
kind of thing, but you know, Jonathan Gannon, new coach,
(30:54):
no quarterback, but Gannon was the defensive coordinator of the
Eagles who faced Eric the enemy's offense. Although is Andy
Reid's offense in the Super Bowl. Obviously, Sam Howell is
not Patrick Mahomes, But like the familiarity, do you give
an edge there at all to Gannon or perhaps be enemy. Hey,
we know what this guy likes to do, we know
his tendencies. We abused him in the second half. I
(31:17):
don't like big favorites, but I think on my card
for the circuit contest, I'm probably gonna be on Washington.
Speaker 6 (31:23):
Well, I think you're just dealing with too many unknowns
in this football game. I mean, yes, you know, we
want to believe that Sam Howe's taking the next step. Yes,
we want to believe that the Cardinals are the worst
team in the worst franchise.
Speaker 4 (31:36):
We want to believe that Gannon and his corny.
Speaker 6 (31:39):
Pump you up speeches, you know, translate onto the field.
But the end of the day, we really don't know
what we're getting with this Cardinals team. We really have
no idea. I mean, Nick Sirianni gave one of the
worst opening press conferences in the history of football. When
he took that job with the Eagles, everybody thought he
was doomed to fail. Dan Campbell same thing. We all
made fun of his by your knee caps off. We
(32:02):
don't really know what we're getting with a lot of
these coaches. They're coordinators, and we want to think like
that they're either really good or really bad. But you
don't really know how these guys are gonna command a
locker room. You know, who's on their staff and whatnot.
So this really isn't a game that I'm gonna lean into.
I mean, like we talked earlier Washington for survivor just
(32:23):
because of their lack of options later in the season.
I think is attractive, but I'm not really looking into it.
Wouldn't surprise me anything happened if the Cardinals came out spirited.
They're you know, all this bowl about them being the
worst team and all that, but.
Speaker 2 (32:40):
Interesting, I do. I do have a question about another
divisional matchup. Divisional dogs at home are golden week one.
I think a guest this week TA had it something
like twenty one and five maybe in Week one, some
obscene number. I have to go back and listen to it.
But the Cleveland Browns fit that description and they're at
home against the Bengals. There's also the angle of teams
(33:01):
that did not make the playoffs don't get bed in
Week one like teams that did make the playoffs. Bengals
made it, Browns didn't. So it feels like the public's
gonna hammer the Bengals. Yet we're seeing a two and
a half, meaning they know the books can't put it
at three because the buyback will be massive. It feels
like this is a spot for Cleveland. They're four and
one against Burrow. I know that doesn't mean a lot.
(33:23):
I think I'm gonna be on Cleveland in the contest.
Speaker 3 (33:25):
Are you where are you? On that one?
Speaker 6 (33:27):
I would definitely leave lean Cleveland. I do like Cincinnati's
chances long term to win this division, although I think
it is by far the toughest division in football. But
I really like this Cleveland team too. The one thing
you can just count on is line play. That's really,
you know, you don't have to worry about like a
(33:47):
lot of the things with that, and Cleveland's got really
good line play. Burrow obviously is coming off injury, which
the guy's superman, so I'm not really that worried about it.
I'm sure he's going to be fine. I feel like
I agree with you on this one. I think Cleveland's
might play. If I'm going to play the game, but
you know, divisional game under a field goal, it wouldn't
(34:09):
surprise me to go either way.
Speaker 2 (34:11):
Yeah, yeah, I got to ask about my Jets David
Jets Bills. I think it's the best game of Week one.
I don't want to overhype it, but if the Jets
go down and their offensive line gets just besieged, they
then have to go to Dallas short week to face
Michael Parsons and a nasty defensive front, it could be
doomed for the Jets. I think they're going to beat
(34:33):
the Bills in Week one, and the line's kind of pinged.
It came down to one now I see it back
up to two. Your thoughts on Jets Bills Monday? Probably
not a contest.
Speaker 6 (34:40):
Play for me though, Yeah, not a contest play for
me for sure. But iileen Bills. I think the Bill,
the continuity on the Bills is just very strong. Josh
Allen has finally recovered from his all his nagging injuries
last year. I think teams, I think the public just
kind of sours on teams when they don't get it done.
(35:02):
I think people are kind of sleeping on the Bills
a little bit. They're just kind of tired, you know.
They were the preseason favors last year, didn't get it done.
They had a chance of the year before they were
the Darlings, couldn't get it done. I think people are
just kind of off them, and the Jets are kind
of the Darlings. I do worry about that offensive line.
The Bills defense is very good. I think that there
(35:23):
is a lot of I don't know, Josh Allen's just
that kind of guy I want to walk through fire for.
And I can't imagine them, you know, getting all hyped
up for this. Really this Jets team that's gotten all
the publicity, and the Jets are going to take this division,
and Aaron Rodgers came here because you know, this division's winnable.
And the Dolphins, and you know, if you don't like
(35:44):
the Jets, you like the Dolphin. Nobody's really talking about
the Bills. I feel like they're kind of under the radar,
really good team. So I kind of lean towards the
Bills in this one, but not a real strong opinion,
because I do think it's going to be a good game.
Speaker 4 (35:58):
I mean, the Jets aren't impressive, all right.
Speaker 2 (36:01):
David Baker obviously follow him on social media. He's winning contests.
He's a legendary poker player. And we'll bring you on
mid season to see how everything's going. David, enjoy opening
weekend and we'll talk to you soon.
Speaker 1 (36:17):
The only thing better than sitting on your couch watching
the games. He's making money while he's do it. Here's
your best bet.
Speaker 2 (36:26):
Great great stuff from David Baker. He is the man.
Love his predictions and analysis and the way he breaks
things down. A big fan of his work. Don't agree
with him on everything in week one? All right, so
we had some success with the best bet on the
Lions Chiefs. I said thirty one thirty day one, twenty
(36:46):
one twenty. I'll take it. The money line two forty
three is a nice little victory to start the season.
That being said, it's a long season. It could be
a long opening weekend. Let's pest pace ourself.
Speaker 3 (37:00):
Okay.
Speaker 2 (37:01):
I will go over bets that I've already made, and
then I will go over my likely picks in the contest.
We will start with the Browns. If you had missed
the TA interview, he broke down why I got Browns
two and a half when he's after he was on
the pod, I listened to him and I looked into
all this Jim Schwartz stuff that he talked about. I
think the Browns can win this outright, So I have
(37:23):
a little money line. It's at two now, I think
you could take it. I think it's going to continue
to go down. I think the Browns will decide. I
read a really interesting piece this guy, Jeff Fogel. I
don't know if you guys follow him. I only heard
about him last year, apparently longtime Vegas guy, and he
was putting stuff on Twitter. Then he started a substack.
I don't I'm not advocating going spending money on a substack,
(37:43):
but I read a couple of things from him and
I liked it, so I subscribed. And he had a
good breakdown of what the two and a half meant.
Now we all know when the line's two and a half,
the books don't want to go to three. But he
had a really extensive breakdown on why, and it basically
means the shark money likes the underdog when it's at
two and a half. If it doesn't go to three,
(38:04):
that's because the sharps are waiting, waiting to come the
other way. I think there's two games this weekend that
exemplify that. The Cleveland Browns two now it's two and
a half now, thatine or two, and the other is
the Pittsburgh Steelers. Now I've hyped the Steelers. I got
them at three. I'm fine with them at two and
a half. I'm all in on the Steelers. They will
one hundred percent be a contest play. The Browns are
like ninety five percent of contest play. I'll see on
(38:25):
Denzel Ward and probably maybe get spooked at the end.
But Pittsburgh I think was my favorite side of the
weekend for a long time. I'm pot committed. I am,
and I kind of regret these two favorites. But Washington.
Remember Adam Turnoff came on the pod. He's at Right
Angle Sports. Right Angle Sports had Washington at six, so
(38:48):
I grabbed it. It's now at seven. I don't hate
it at seven. Now Ta's on the other side. He
has a connection in Arizona and feels like they're going
to be competitive. I just you look at that offensive
line for Arizona. I think they're starting a rookie at center,
and it's not like a first round pickrookie. They got
a rookie at tackle, and you've got Josh Dobbs running
for his life against a really, really good Washington front
(39:11):
I don't see Arizona having much success. Now, maybe Sam
Howell vomits all over himself, urinates down his leg, and
Washington is a disaster and they just keep handing the
ball over in Arizona hangs around. I don't see that happening.
I think the stadium's gonna be juiced up with Daniel
Snyder out. I believe Washington wins handily. Don't know about
him in a contest, though, I don't mind. Obviously I
(39:32):
have six. I don't mind seven either. Now the other
side that I have is Denver, and there is a
lot of Jason. Wait a minute, you've been talking all
the time about divisional dogs. Correct, Denver's at home. Denver
has a considerable advantage at home. There is some stuff
going on with the Raiders. I don't understand the Chandler
Jones like being locked out of the facility. It sounds
(39:53):
like it's kind of ugly. I think Sirtan on Devonte Adams.
Sirtan will want revenge. Javonte got him lastter good by
the way. Oh wait, dear a Carr like had an
armed Jimmy Garoppolo doesn't and look at it in San Francisco,
last year, Jimmy Garoppolo can't throw the ball deep and outside,
which is, by the way, the pattern that Adams ran
to beat Sirtan on a pass from car.
Speaker 3 (40:15):
Jimmy Garoppolo can't make that throw.
Speaker 2 (40:17):
When Brock Purdy came in for him last year, brock
Purdy had the longest air throw. I think it was
like two weeks in and that was after Garoppolo had
been the quarterback for several weeks. It was unbelievable, Like
basically they were saying Garoppolo couldn't make certain throws deep,
Brock Purty can. So what's gonna happen when this Denver front,
which is improved and better.
Speaker 3 (40:36):
It's early.
Speaker 2 (40:37):
Let's think Randy Gregory will be okay to play. He's
always hurt. I do believe this Denver team kind of
opens a can. Here Sean Payton, I excited it on her.
Do you remember when Tom Brady was the Bucks the
first time his start in the opening season, goes to
Tampa and they go to New Orleans and everybody and
their mom was on the Bucks. Everybody and Saints kicked
(41:00):
their ass. I mean, and Peyton, I'm just saying he's
a really good coach. I don't pretend to know him closely.
I did and go out to dinner with him, But
the guy was on the set like every week, and
I'm just telling you, during commercial breaks, he would instantly
go back to all these motivational techniques that he would
do and employ. He's really good. I'm rooting for him.
So I am a sneaky closeted Denver Broncos fan this season,
(41:22):
and I'm gonna be on him this week they're at
home at altitude. I'm gonna like him in week two
as well. My only concern is if they handle the Raiders.
I know this divisional could be close. Let's say this
is twenty four to ten Broncos and at the defense
is great and Russell Wilson looks like his old self.
I think you're gonna get an inflated number for Denver
(41:43):
next week. So I'm gonna jump on the Denver bandwagon. Now.
Don't know if I'm taking them in the contest, but
I have bet them minus four a couple totals. I
have under forty for Atlanta Carolina. If you couldn't tell
I like Atlanta a lot, go look at the Carolina
injury situation. First of all, the offensive line is not good.
They got boat raced in the offseason. I'm sorry. In
(42:05):
the preseason. Their offensive line just got destroyed by the
Jets and the Giants and the receiving unit. Theeland didn't
practice Thursday. Terrence Marshall's banged up. Who's like their number
three or four? And one other receiver Shark didn't practice Thursday.
It's like, is Jonathan Mingo the rookie who I did
grab in a fantasy league, is he really gonna be
(42:26):
You're starting number one receiver? And again, I don't think
Atlanta now Terrell is a pretty good cornerback, but I
don't think Atlanta's defense is anything great.
Speaker 3 (42:33):
I just don't know if.
Speaker 2 (42:33):
Bryce Young's gonna survive. So I like Atlanta to win handily.
I don't like a lot of points from Carolina. I
could see like twenty seven to nine or something like that.
Speaker 3 (42:42):
So I have the under.
Speaker 2 (42:42):
I have the over in Jacksonville, Indy over forty three
and a half. I don't trust the Jacksonville defense. I
think it's way over hyped. I know we talk divisional
home dogs are money. TA gave the number divisional home
dogs twenty one and five run since I think it's
twenty ten in week one. I just don't know if
I have the stones. I don't have the Kahonas to
(43:04):
take Indy here.
Speaker 3 (43:05):
I just don't.
Speaker 2 (43:06):
I'm sure I'll regret not taking them and they'll pull
the upset out right. You know it's possible I get
excited and just fire on the money line, just a
pizza money leading up to the game. But I just
I can't. There's just so devoid of talent, and we
know Jacksonville has the ability to score with all the
weapons they have. They got with Adam Calvin Ridley, man,
this team's got some juice. I don't like the Indie defense.
(43:28):
But bottom line is, I think there'll be points. I
probably should take Indye, but I'm being a woos and
the final total I have is the over forty three
and a half in Houston Baltimore. I believe there'll be
some garbage time action from the Texans. Would not be
surprised if this was like forty to seventeen, forty to fourteen.
Rape Ravens are gonna score. I don't know about at will,
(43:50):
but they will score a lot of points here. So
those are the three totals, I like other games I'm
looking at.
Speaker 3 (43:57):
It's funny.
Speaker 2 (43:58):
I've been trashing Tampa all offseason. I don't think they're good,
but you look at this spread and you're like, wait
a minute, Wait a.
Speaker 3 (44:05):
Minute, how are they?
Speaker 2 (44:07):
How is Minnesota favored by? Is it six and a
half or is it down to five? How the hell?
Yeah it was six, it's now down to five and
a half. And as I'm recording this Sunday, I'm sorry,
not Sunday night. I'm recording this Thursday night. I see
bet Chris perceived to be the sharpest book because they
take a lot of big bets. It's down to five.
(44:29):
I think you have to bet Tampa Bay in this spot.
Go look at the Minnesota defense. I think they lost
five starters, and it's not like they were that great
to begin with. Last year they had I think eleven
to zero one score games, ridiculous good fortune in comebacks,
and yes they're at home, and yes in the opener
(44:50):
last year they showed really well against Green Bay and
destroyed them. I just think this Tampa team with Baker
Evans Godwin, there's not going to be any quit They're
going to kee throwing and I don't think Minnesota can
put up much resistance. They just don't have the talent
on defense. So I think Tampa's gonna hang around. Now,
this is one of those Jay J be careful. It's
not a divisional matchup. It's just so I'm looking at
(45:14):
Tampa in the contest. I don't love it, but man,
it's a little tasty. I don't think anyone's gonna have
them either, so it would be like a little edge
the other game. Oh wait, did I mention Atlanta? Yeah,
I think I have Atlanta as a near lock at
three and a half in the contest. I just looked
up Brian Burns, who's a great EDG drusher. He's holding out,
(45:34):
so like Ritters should be able to have his way
against Carolina. I know the defense has some dudes, but
I think the Atlanta offense is gonna have some success there.
I'm not gonna be taking Baltimore in the contest because
I have vowed not to do double digit favorites because
it always kills me. I say I'm not gonna do it.
I say I'm not gonna do it. Then there's someone
minus eleven. Oh, come on, there's a frigging layup and
(45:56):
then they blow it. So I'm not doing double digit
favorites at all in the contest. I don't think I'm
gonna do Saints Titans in the contest. I like the
Saints a lot this year. I had liked them in
this opener, and you start reading some stuff about Tennessee
and looking into it, and you're like, damn, in this
Tennessee freaking They're gonna hang around, aren't they. Vrabel is
(46:18):
a great coach. Dennis Allen, we know, is historically not
a great coach. So I'm probably gonna shy away from
Saints in the contest. And it just goes down to three,
I'll know I was right, and the contest has three
and a half, So maybe I take Tennessee. Now, I
will add one other thing. Guys, A buddy said, hey,
do you want to be in this Sports Picks weekly contest?
(46:44):
And essentially it is you pay two hundred dollars for
the season, and every week you have to pick every
game against the spread, every game and every week somebody's
gonna win money if you win first, and then there's
an end of the season prize.
Speaker 3 (46:58):
It's bigger.
Speaker 2 (47:00):
So I'll just admit I had Detroit. The line was
six and a half. Because I guess the lines are frozen.
I'm just gonna do it this week because I don't
know who's listening, who else is in this contest. I
have a great feeling about Week one, So I have Washington.
I picked Washington minus six and a half. I have
Atlanta minus three and a half. Cleveland it's only plus
one and a half. Here. I have Baltimore minus nine
and a half. I took Indy plus three and a half.
(47:22):
Now that's way down from five. I don't know how
the hell they have Indy at three and a half,
but I'm on Indy. I got Pittsburgh two and a half.
I have Tampa six and a half. I took Tennessee
plus three and a half green Bay plus two and
a half. I have major concern with that. I want
to take the Packers this week. But this Watson Dobbs
wide receiver situation. Listen, we just watched the Chiefs struggle
(47:46):
mightily at receiver and that's with Patrick Mahomes. So now
you're taking out Dobbs and Watson maybe not playing, and
I'm like, I can't touch the Packers. So I think
I'm gonna have to lay off them. But in this thing,
you know, divisional dog, I think I can take Green
Bay in this in this pick him contest. Seattle minus
five and a half, I'm strongly considering them in the
contest as well. Denver minus four and a half on them,
(48:08):
Chargers minus two and a half. I like him. That's
gone up to three, by the way, And just keep
an eye out on that Dolphins injury report. Tront Armstead
doesn't sound like he's gonna be a go the left tackle.
Kind of a big deal going against a Bosa. You're
gonna want to monitor that TA In Game one, I
did see an awesome note. I mean, this is just
an incredible nugget that last year the Chargers had one
(48:31):
of the best game plans against the Dolphins. It was
just an awesome game plan man man coverage, press, and
they forced to it to make the deep outside throws
nothing available in the middle of field, and two it
couldn't make the throws. Chargers bottled them up. It was great.
The defensive coordinator from the Chargers was hired by the
Dolphins in the offseason. If you a classic, if you
(48:52):
can't beat them, join them right you gotta love that.
So I I like the Chargers there, but we'll see it.
Just I think I like the Chargers are so far Patriot. Okay,
this was a tough one, Patriots Eagles. I have Patriots
plus four and a half. Speaking of coaching moves, this
(49:12):
one's interesting. Anybody know where Matt Patricia is right now?
And I'm asking that, hold on, let me just google
Matt Patricia. I'm asking that. What's the word?
Speaker 3 (49:22):
Damn it?
Speaker 2 (49:23):
I know the rhetorically, it's a rhetorical question. Matt Patricia
last year was the Patriots offensive coordinator, so he knows
Mac Jones really well. Wikipedia. Matt Patricia is the senior
defensive assistant for the Philadelphia Eagles.
Speaker 3 (49:41):
Huh. Interesting.
Speaker 2 (49:45):
Matt Patricia with the Patriots all last year, knows what
Mac Jones is and limited and everything tendencies, and now
he goes to Philadelphia and he's a defensive guy. So
I wonder if we will see some tweaks from the
Eagles defensively how they approach Mac Jones because of the
(50:07):
intimate knowledge that Matt Patricia possesses of Mac Jones, who
I don't even think is very good. So I'm doing
Patriots in the contest just because it's four and a half.
But man, I want to bet the Eagles here.
Speaker 3 (50:20):
This looks to me like it could be a.
Speaker 2 (50:25):
Eagles thirty four Patriots thirteen. Jason, how did you miss
a lay up like that? The Eagles are really good?
It could I feel like we could see that. But
there is the Super Bowl hangover notes. Some guy tweeted
it at me. I had to look it up to
make sure it was accurate. The Super Bowl loser is
four and eighteen against the spread in Week one in
the last twenty two years, four and eighteen, staggering New
(50:48):
York Giants. I took plus three and a half in
this pick'um contest. I don't know if I have the
stones to take them in the real contest where real
money is. It's take like real money, you know, And
I want to be competitive in that. And that's kind
of what you have to do. I know, I'm talking
out of both sides of my mouth. To be competitive
in this thing, you're gonna have to hold your nose
and take some of these dogs with fleas. And if
(51:10):
you just look at the matchups, the Dallas Cowboys have
infinitely more talent than the Giants, but divisional matchup home dog.
It checks the boxes.
Speaker 3 (51:18):
Jason, what are you doing?
Speaker 2 (51:20):
And of course Jets. I'm taking the Jets over the Bills.
At any rate, those are best bets. That's a lot
of them. I don't want to go through every game
every weekend, but I just did. At any rate, enjoy
the weekend, enjoy the games. I can't wait for Monday.
Host
Jason McIntyre
Popular Podcasts
Stuff You Should Know
If you've ever wanted to know about champagne, satanism, the Stonewall Uprising, chaos theory, LSD, El Nino, true crime and Rosa Parks, then look no further. Josh and Chuck have you covered.
Dateline NBC
Current and classic episodes, featuring compelling true-crime mysteries, powerful documentaries and in-depth investigations. Special Summer Offer: Exclusively on Apple Podcasts, try our Dateline Premium subscription completely free for one month! With Dateline Premium, you get every episode ad-free plus exclusive bonus content.
On Purpose with Jay Shetty
I’m Jay Shetty host of On Purpose the worlds #1 Mental Health podcast and I’m so grateful you found us. I started this podcast 5 years ago to invite you into conversations and workshops that are designed to help make you happier, healthier and more healed. I believe that when you (yes you) feel seen, heard and understood you’re able to deal with relationship struggles, work challenges and life’s ups and downs with more ease and grace. I interview experts, celebrities, thought leaders and athletes so that we can grow our mindset, build better habits and uncover a side of them we’ve never seen before. New episodes every Monday and Friday. Your support means the world to me and I don’t take it for granted — click the follow button and leave a review to help us spread the love with On Purpose. I can’t wait for you to listen to your first or 500th episode!